PT Avia Avian Tbk (IDX:AVIA)
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Apr 30, 2026, 4:05 PM WIB
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Earnings Call: Q3 2023

Nov 1, 2023

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for taking the time to participate in today's PT Avia Avian Tbk, or Avia Q3 2023 earnings call. For your information, we uploaded the presentation materials to our website yesterday. Today's earnings call holds a special significance, because on this very day, November the first, Avia celebrates its 45th anniversary. It's incredible how far we have come since then, and it's a testament to the hard work and dedication of each and every one of our team. As we reflect on our journey, we can't help but feel a sense of pride and gratitude. Our success wouldn't have been possible without the unwavering support of our employees, partners, and of course, all of our investors. Therefore, on behalf of the entire company, I would like to express our heartfelt appreciation for your trust and confidence in Avia.

We are fully aware that we still have a long way to go, and there is still a lot of work to be done in order to achieve our goals. We are committed to identifying and addressing any issues that may be hindering our progress and taking the necessary steps to fix them. The plan for today is to start with a 30-minute presentation, followed by a question and answer session. We aim to keep the entire earnings call within one and a half hours. To ensure the session runs smoothly, we will mute all participants at the beginning of the presentation. If you have any questions during the presentation, please use the question and answer chat box, and we will answer your questions during the Q&A session.

For those who cannot join us now, please note that we have the webcast of this event will be uploaded to our website no later than tomorrow. Thank you again for being here today. Allow me to start by introducing myself. My name is Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno. I'm the Head of Investor Relations of Avia, and I will be moderating this earnings call today. We are joined today by three other presenters, starting with Mr. Ruslan Tanoko, the Vice President Director of our company, followed by Mr. Robert Tanoko, the Operations and Development Director, and finally, Mr. Kurnia Hadi, the Finance Director. In quarter three, total revenue reached IDR 1.7 trillion, or the equivalent of $109 million.

This quarter, we recorded a gross margin of 42.1%, an EBITDA margin of 24.8%, and a net profit margin of 20.2%. We are supported by a team of over 8,000 employees. As of the end of Q3 , we had 156 distribution centers across Indonesia, comprising 116 wholly owned DCs and 40 third-party DCs, providing high-quality services to more than 56,000 retail outlets in 38 provinces and 99 cities in Indonesia. In the Q3 , consolidated sales witnessed a 4.9% growth year on year. The architectural solutions segment showed a stronger performance than the trading goods segment, mainly driven by stronger sales from the three largest revenue contributors, which include wall, waterproofing, and wood and metal.

The gross margin of the architectural solutions segment witnessed a 4.9% improvement, reaching a level of 49.1%. In addition, the trading goods segment recorded a gross margin of 17.4%, exhibiting a 3.2% improvement as compared to the same quarter last year. The improvement in gross margin has further led to an improvement in EBITDA margin. Inflation continues to have a significant impact on the market in the Q3 of this year. We believe that the demand for paints has not yet fully recovered, considering the rising CPI, coupled with the increase in the minimum wage, which remains lagging behind the inflation of building material prices. The escalating prices of rice in Indonesia, which have risen by over 15% in less than a year, have exacerbated the situation.

Given that rice is the staple food for most Indonesians, the consequences could be significant. Consumers are likely to prioritize their primary needs over any secondary or tertiary goods, making the situation even more challenging. The ongoing issue of weak purchasing power has been evident across various industries. During Q3 , several building materials companies struggled with their sales, with cement companies experiencing feeble sales growth. In fact, one ceramic tile company reported a negative sales growth of around 5% during the same period. Similarly, the FMCG industry has also been affected by this trend, with several large companies reporting even weaker sales performances compared to the building materials industry. Even one of Indonesia's largest FMCG enterprises reported a negative sales growth, which declined by a low single-digit percentage.

Despite these challenging market conditions, we have been able to better position ourselves in the market by offering a low range of economical price products that cater to the needs of our consumers. By having a complete product portfolio that covers all price categories at our disposal, we are confident that we continue to strengthen our market share. Our research, development, and innovation, or RDI division, plays a crucial role in creating products that cater to diverse needs of consumers across all income levels. Our recent product innovations have been specifically designed to address the affordability factor of consumers. We aim to deliver the best-in-class products to ensure our consumers across the country receive the best products according to their needs and budget. We launched a total of five new products in this quarter, two of which are Singapore Green Label certified.

In this Q3, we expanded our distribution network by adding two wholly-owned DCs, one new mini DC, and three third-party DCs. By the end of quarter three, we have a total of 116 wholly-owned DCs, 14 mini DCs, and 40 third-party DCs. Within our wholly-owned DCs, we have 607 delivery trucks, which enable us to make around 10,300 deliveries per day. We are constantly striving to improve our delivery process by implementing logistic automation. Our goal is to achieve a highly efficient and lean delivery process. Through multiple technology-driven initiatives, we are able to fulfill 96% of one-day delivery service to retail outlets within 50 km of a wholly-owned DC. As a company, we are always finding ways to improve our performance and take our service quality to the next level.

In this quarter, we started to roll out Express Delivery to provide an even faster and more efficient service to our customers and incentivize them to purchase more products from us. By being able to receive products within two hours of ordering, retail outlets can expand their product offerings without increasing their stock, which leads to a profit improvement. We will monitor the effectiveness of this system closely as we gradually implement it to all of our distribution centers nationwide. I will now pass to Pak Hadi to continue the presentation.

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you, Pak Andreas, and good afternoon, everyone. During the first nine months of this year, consolidated sales increased by 4.1% as compared to the corresponding period of the previous year. Throughout the first nine months of this year, more than 55,000 retail outlet conducted transaction, an increase of more than 500 customer compared to the same period last year. Our topmost priority is to establish and maintain positive relationship with all our customer. We are confident that, our effort to foster high-quality relationship with our customer will ultimately lead to increased customer loyalty. We still maintain the contribution of our architecture solution segment of around 81%. The contribution of the trading goods segment account for around 19%. According to the chart on the right, traditional retail outlet account for approximately 93% of the total sales.

The contribution from modern retail outlet is around 7%. The consolidated gross margin for Q3 2023 increased to 42.1%, indicating a significant improvement of 4.5% compared to the same quarter last year. When compared to the previous quarter, the consolidated gross margin in Q3 declined due to increased contribution from the trading goods segment, from 17% in Q2 to 22% in Q3. Additionally, the EBITDA margin for Q3 was 24.8%, showing a 2% improvement over the Q3 of last year. Furthermore, the net income margin for Q3 was 20.2%, representing an improvement of 1% compared to the same quarter last year. For the nine months of this year, sales for the architecture solution segment rose by 4.5%, amounting to IDR 4.2 trillion.

As we approach the completion of our economical price product line, we have witnessed a significant improvement in volume growth. In Q3, our sales volume grew by 6.2% compared to the same quarter last year. In the first nine months of this year, sales volume has also shown improvement, which is a positive indication of growth. Despite the low single-digit decline in YTD Q3, we have succeeded in narrowing the decline gap compared to the first half. We remain committed to our differentiated strategy, capabilities, and product and service solution. We view the difficult environment as an opportunity to become an even more valuable partner to our customer. The architecture solution segment recorded transactions from more than 50,000 retail outlets in the first nine months of this year, representing over 1,000 additional customers compared to the same period last year.

Our focus remain on increasing the number of retail outlet that conduct transaction with us, while we continue to work hard on improving the quality of our service. The trading goods segment saw a 2.6% sales increase in the first nine months of this year. Within this segment, the PVC Pipe category has demonstrated a better performance compared to the other categories. During the first nine months of this year, we have recorded transactions from over 45,000 retail outlet in the trading goods segment. This figure represents approximately 83% of our total customer, indicating the high level of synergy that this particular segment has within our business ecosystem. Gross margin for the architecture solution segment improved by 4.9% in Q3 as compared to the same period last year.

In the first nine months of this year, the architecture solution segment recorded a gross margin of 50.4%. On the other hand, gross margin for the trading goods segment remained relatively stable. For the nine-month period, the gross margin for this segment was 17.8%. I will now pass to Pak Robert to continue the presentation.

Robert Tanoko
Operations and Development Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you, Pak Andy. The company has always been mindful of its costs while pursuing multiple growth strategies. The cost of sales and marketing have slightly increased to around 16% as we continue our efforts to raise brand awareness and expand our distribution channels. The decline in raw material prices has directly resulted in decrease in COGS as a percentage of sales. We have observed a relatively stable trend in direct labor and factory overhead costs. Below the line marketing expenses accounted for around 9% of sales, of which around 1% were allocated to new products. This page showcases some of the marketing activities that we engage in to enhance our brand visibility. As a company, we always prioritize marketing efforts to ensure our brand remains visible to potential customers.

We understand the significance of consistent marketing efforts, particularly in the paint industry, where brand stickiness is high. Our marketing team has always been working diligently to develop and implement creative strategies by leveraging social media platforms to increase brand recognition and customer engagement. We have maintained our trading working capital quite well at around 30% in the first nine months of this year. Our routine CapEx is low, accounting for only around 2% of sales. Thanks to our ability to generate high level of cash and low routine CapEx, we have a solid free cash flow. This give us confidence to commit a dividend payout of at least 50% of our net income. It is important to note that we will continue to pursue mergers and acquisitions. In the meantime, we will maximize our dividend payout ratio.

Over the past two years, we have paid dividends equal to approximately 90% of our net income. One key aspect that set us apart from the rest of our competitors is our ability to maintain on-time account receivable collection. We have seen a decent improvement in our on-time collection, despite the ongoing economic recovery. We take pride in the fact that we have earned a top priority for payment from retail outlets, which is a clear indication of the effectiveness of our efforts to streamline our internal processes and foster high-quality relationships with our customers. We are committed to continuing our hard work to preserve these relationships and provide our customers with the best possible services and products.

This page provides updates on the progress of our third factory in the Cirebon. The factory spans 11 hectares of land and is nearing the completion of the land filling process. The factory is planned to start operating by 2025, with an expected number of employees of around 300 people. To enhance our vertical integration capabilities, we intend to incorporate raw material production facilities in the new factory, including resin and packaging. In the view of the challenging market conditions, characterized by weaker consumer purchasing power, we have decided to adjust our guidance in line with the current market trends. For the full year of 2023, we now expect consolidated net sales to register around 4%-6% growth, while volumes are projected to be flat, considering the macroeconomic headwinds that are likely to persist in the Q4.

We will remain focused on what we can control as we enter the last quarter of the year. We will continue to invest in growth initiatives, including adding distribution centers, innovative products and services, and tinting machines . That concludes our Q3 presentation. Thank you very much for joining today's earnings call, and I will now pass to Andreas to moderate the Q&A session.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you, Pak Robert. First of all, we would like to apologize if there is anybody that, having difficulties to enter our call today. We will continue with, Q&A session. The first question is coming from Yuan Long. The question is, we wanted to ask about what was the main change that led to lower guidance? Recall, in quarter two, management was quite optimistic about hitting the 8%-12% year-on-year sales growth, and even low base.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. Hi, Yuan Long. Thanks for the question. Yeah, so we've been monitoring the situation on the ground very closely. While we are quite happy with the fact that our on-time collections in Q2 has really improved from what we accomplished in Q1, when we speak to our customers everywhere across the nation, there's definitely weaknesses that we cannot ignore. Keep in mind that even though we have launched five products in Q3, of which three belong in the more economical segment, right? But the pickups from the consumers is not as high as what we had hoped.

And in our view, we think that this is a clear sign that the shops are really experiencing lack of confidence with regards to this, because we know for a fact that there's still a gap between the prices that we have in Indonesia for paints, versus the minimum wage that have been going up for the past three years. So in theory, when we see all these more economical products being launched, we were really hoping for responses to be, you know, really great, but we didn't actually see that. So even though not all products were actually launched in the beginning of the Q3, right? We have Avitex Wizz, for instance. We only launched this in at the end of Q3, which is like September. We have No Drop Basic.

We also launched that in August, or maybe actually also September. So, so short to say that the difference from our belief in the Q2 to what we have witnessed in the Q3, is because, well, these are all products that are, you know, at least 15%-20% cheaper than what we currently have in the respective segments, and yet the pickup is not as strong. One instance that you also see here when you look at the wood care or glue, right? We launched one product there, called Avian Lem Epoxy Hemat. Hemat is, the Indonesian word for, economics or yeah. But the pickup for this product, even though the kind of consumers that uses these products are predominantly budget-conscious, but the pickup was also not very high.

So I think the biggest difference within our initial projections to why we decided to make this revision is because of that. Because we didn't expect the market to behave in this manner, even though three products in three important categories have been launched in a more economical manner. And that's why we decided to adjust our target for this year. I hope that answered your questions.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question is coming from Mike Crystal. How does the market share look in Q3 ? Have the new product helped us to gain material market share?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you for this question. So again, when we look at the Indonesian paint competitive landscape, right, there are a few more products that have been launched into the market. There's a local company who's based in Jakarta, who also decided to launch one or two products. But to be honest, out of the 200+ paint companies, we've only witnessed maybe less than five companies that have been responsive and trying to also launch new products. The rest of the companies have not been launching any new products. So it's very safe to say that we are very confident that we have been gaining market share. And if you look in this waterproofing, for instance, right, the No Drop Basic, in this kind of price range that we just launched, essentially there isn't any...

competitor that exists in this price range. There's very small competitors who are trying to play in this price range because they are trying to enter the market, but they haven't been all that successful. So the fact that we launched this more economical product with the, the brand using the No Drop, we felt that this would be attracting the retailers as well as the consumers in ways where, well, if I don't have enough money to use a product for my waterproofing to prevent leakages or whatever, this is something that I can use because the price is about 15%-20% cheaper. And the way that we communicate this to the consumer is by giving them, okay, if you look on the images on the right, you can see the four-year protection.

So that's basically how we explain to the consumers that, well, this is a product that's cheaper, but at the same time, compared to the normal No Drop that we have, well, the protection is lesser. Well, I mean, it makes sense, because it's cheaper, that's why it's lesser in the number of years. You know, normal No Drop gives you seven-year protection, whereas this one only gives you four-year protection. So you pay less, but you also get lesser protection. But at least they have this product now as an option so that they can use it. But other competitors in the market haven't really been all that aggressive in trying to launch any new products. In fact, specific for... If you look at our approach, right?

When we're trying to launch products to cater to the weaker consumer buying power, we haven't witnessed any of our competitors doing it, except for maybe one company, which is AkzoNobel. I think two or three months ago, in Q3, at the beginning of Q3, AkzoNobel decided to launch one product in the same price range as this Avitex Wiz on the screen. But besides that, we haven't seen any other company that basically launched any other products. When we find it difficult in terms of the market now, with all the products that we've launched, I cannot imagine how the other smaller competitors would actually feel when the market is really not that strong.

So that's why, that's what led us to conclude that we definitely have been gaining market share in the various categories that we've been launching these products at.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next, from Sukrit again. Does Avian expect market volume outlook to pick up in 2024, even with the election spending hope? Overall sentiment does not seem to show a pick-up spending?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So I mean, as a company, right, we're always trying to find opportunities. And to be honest, I am quite excited as a company with regards to all the things that we will do and implement next year. I cannot share everything with you guys at this point in time, because a lot of it will definitely, you know, we try to disrupt the market. And what we're trying to do with regards to our approach next year is to, okay, what else can we do to basically introduce all the products that we have to the market, try to push, right? Which is why one important slide that I've decided to share here is the use of the express delivery.

In my mind, now that we have a lot of products that we've been introducing in the past few years, right, this is an extension to that strategy. Because when you go to the shops, right, you will see a lot of paint products that they carry from various suppliers, right? So if our approach also doesn't change, if we just keep asking the shops to carry more and more and more inventory, I think they would find it to be extremely challenging, and you can see it now. Which is why when we decided to launch this, right, we only have this now in less than 20 DCs, right? Because we mentioned that we are doing this gradual launch. But by the end of the year, all of our DCs will have all these three-wheelers.

In short, to say that the whole three-wheeler idea is really to give shops options, right? And the key message from us to the shop, to our customer, is that, "Look, you can improve your profit margin without involving any capital, right? Because we have DCs everywhere, meaning that when we want to deliver something to you, well, we can do it in less than two hours. So you should really take advantage of what we offer." And because of the nature of the vehicle, right, it can only, in terms of radius, I think we can only cover around 40 or so kilometers from where our wholly-owned DCs are located.

So, you know, we're expecting around 30,000 or so shops that would benefit from this service, because on the outer, when the distance is quite far, we cannot do this yet. But, I mean, as we open more and more DCs, you know, more and more customers will be included who can basically enjoy the benefit of this. So I think going back to your question, even though election is happening next year, right? I believe that... I'm hoping that it will be a peaceful one, so that essentially consumer will still spend and do their home renovation.

But what we're trying to do, next year and, aggressively, is trying to think outside the box to what we've done so far, and trying to find ways that we can still grow our business, even though the market condition may or may not be good. So I think that's how we look at it.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next, from Sukrit again. Could you share how much of the increase in marketing costs is attributed to new product launch, and how much is for existing product to fend off competition?

Yeah. So if you look at the BTL here at the bottom right, we indicated that the BTL for new products account for around 1%. The element of this, obviously, is when we needed to be very aggressive in trying to get the shops to buy more from us. But beyond that, right, beyond the BTL, you can see that the top, the sales and marketing went up by 1% compared to last year. A lot of it is basically has to do with the branding activities that we've been doing. So we have a few competitors, where when they're trying to persuade our top customers, that's basically what they do, right? They paint all the shops within their branding and everything else.

When this type of threat is actually happening to our top customers, well, we have to defend our positions. And therefore, we've been also increasing our branding activities in all regions, not only in Java, but also in many parts of Indonesia. And we also have to re-do branding and repainting and all these things, so in order to defend our positions. But beyond that, the existing product that we have, we did not increase the BTL budget because we only increased them for the new products. For the existing one, they barely go up.

In fact, they're probably flat at this point in time because we just focus on all the new products and we're. But one thing that I want to add is that if we're launching a more economical product, you can be sure that the company is aware, and we wanted to avoid any issue of cannibalization. Because when the products are lower or more economical, we don't want cannibalization to happen, and we're keeping a very close eye on this, to prevent that from happening.

Next, we go to the question from Giovanni. Would you mind to share the current purchasing power condition, especially on wall painting segment? And how the Avitex Gold that has been launched fit well in the market. Is it able to gain market share from the market leader, Nippon Paint?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Avitex Gold continue to be tracking very well within our expectations. I mean, to be honest, above our expectations. But beyond Avitex Gold, when we look deeper into various markets in Indonesia, especially on the outer islands, there are actually many regions where the price for Avitex Gold is actually considered to be too expensive. So in those regions, right, what we had to do is to actually push with other products. So at the beginning, we believe that Avitex Gold has market everywhere. But then as we go deeper into the various cities in Indonesia, the 99 cities that we cover, there are plenty of cities where Avitex Gold is actually considered to be premium. And therefore, in those regions, we need to push with Avitex Wiz, sometimes with Aries Gold or sometimes with uncertain .

But our overall strategy with Avitex Gold in trying to enter that more premium in the mid-tier wall paint has definitely been getting market share from, I would say, not only Nippon in particular, but a few other competitors. Because Nippon is not the only player in the mid-tier wall paint. But we continue to do very well with Avitex Gold. In fact, we just completed our new television advertising for Avitex Gold, where the new idea, because the name is gold, so we're actually using our three-wheeler for the express delivery, and we paint the whole body in gold, so to catch people's attention. I think the new advertising has been launched in the past few days, if I'm not mistaken, and that's basically what we'll be doing.

So we will use that new television advertising on the Avitex product from now on, to really get the momentum going even faster. This is the first time that Avitex Gold will be aired on television, because before this, we weren't advertising it with Avitex Gold. It was a different Avitex that we were using.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Next, a question from Ali. Why did architectural margin come down in Q3 Q on Q? And what was the architectural margin in year-to-date, nine months in 2022, please?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah, thank you for the question. The margin for the architectural solution in Q3 2023 is going down slightly because of the increasing in the BTL. Because if you recall, at our COGS, there is a BTL inside it there. So in our effort to boost the sales and everything during the Q3 2023, we slightly increased the budget for the BTL. That's why the margin for the architectural solution in Q3 2023 is slightly down. But compared to the last year, the same nine-month 2022, the gross margin for the architectural solution is still increase, yeah. Because last year, for nine months, gross margin is around 45.2%.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

We go to next question from Divya. Can you provide some outlook for promotion trends? It has been stepped up to 10% versus usually 8%, and ATL also higher, so total is almost 12% of sales versus 10%. Is this higher level just for Q3 or expected to continue?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So I think what we have been looking into our response to the market, Divya, is that at any shops where I mentioned earlier, right? When we are under threat from any competitors that wants to get more market share from us, then we need to definitely retaliate. The other thing is that we have been making a decision to increase our above the line or television or digital spending, in our attempt to boost our brand awareness as well as product awareness, because we believe that this is something that we need to do. One topic that we also discuss is that the introduction of tinting machines, right? So as we have more and more products, many of them are tintable, including the No Drop Basic, the more economical version.

So, what makes sense for us to do is that, okay, well, we're increasing all the branding, we're increasing all the television, so we should also increase our deployment of tinting machines. Because this is something that we believe is important to do for the Indonesian market. We're also witnessing that more and more second or third generations are now becoming involved in continuing the shops of building material shops everywhere. So these are the kind of generations that can be influenced easier with regards to acceptance of tinting machines, right? And historically, the previous generation was always skeptical about the tinting machine deployment because they feel like it's too complicated and you know, what happens if the tinting machine breaks down and everything else. But keep in mind that this is where we are different, right?

We have so many distribution centers everywhere across the nation, and at this point in time, we have maybe about 200 technicians. The technicians' purposes is basically to maintain any of tinting machines before they break down or give you issues, right? I think in that way, we are positioned better than any of our competitors. But yeah, I think with regards to the sales and marketing increase that we have witnessed, I think it's most likely that those numbers are going to be maintained. The way we see it is, if we continue to benefit from the stabilization of raw materials, I think it would be better for the company to prioritize doing more branding and marketing activities for the longer term.

Now, when there are gonna be pressures from raw materials, then we may look at the whole approach, and maybe we will make a decision to reduce some of them. But for the time being, because we are still enjoying the benefits from stable raw materials, I think we'll continue to maintain the aggressiveness with regards to our sales and marketing budget that we've allocated in Q3. So we'll keep them in Q4 as well. Maybe even Q1 next year, providing that we still enjoy the benefits from the stable raw materials.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question is from Yuan Long, and has two questions. One, margins has expanded year-over-year, but on quarter-over-quarter basis, this has declined. Why? More BTL expense. Number two, given that customer take-up for new products has been weak, will you dial back advertising? What is the thought process here?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

I'll answer the first question. Thank you, Yuan Long, for your question. When talking about margin, consolidated margin, I think there's three factors that affected the margin. Number one is the raw material, of course. Number two is the BTL, and number three is the contribution from the architectural solution and compared to the contribution of the trading goods. Talking about the raw material, I think, yeah, because of the increasing in the oil price, the effect on us is on the oil derivative material, like SBO and monomers, the raw material for the resin. Yeah. So, in average price for October, for instance, for this material increased around 6%-7% compared to September. And this type of material contributes around 20% of the total materials.

For other commodity, but raw material like, TiO2 and, SBO, effect on, price will be more on the supply and demand. Yeah. But when we're talking, effect on COGS, because of the buffer in the finished good inventory as well in raw material, up to September, our costs, per unit still decreased compared to, September last year. The second factor, the BTL, yeah. Because of the latest market condition, as, Pak Ruslan also explained earlier, we need to be more aggressive in the marketing effort, so this translated to a higher BTL, contribution to COGS. And lastly, for the, sales contribution from the trading goods, in Q3, it's, increased quite a lot from 17% in the first six months to, 22% in Q3.

So it's also dragged on the consolidated margin. Hopefully, it can answer your question, Yuan.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So the second question, Yuan Long, with regards to if the pickup from the shops are relatively weak, will we dial down on the BTL spend and, and marketing and everything else? So this is why we believe that the express delivery was important for us. Because if we didn't have this, I think we'll continue to face challenges with all the products that we have, as well as all the new products that we've launched, right? And the fact is, we have been planning to launch more products next year to different categories to complete our product portfolio. Because, again, I think if we reflect on many paint companies around the world, okay, one, for example, which is the nearest to us, is Asian Paints in India, for instance, right? They continue to launch more and more products.

If we look at our waterproofing product, for instance, we still have less than 10 products, but Asian Paints have more than 30 different products. So, you know, that give you a bit of a glimpse with regards to, okay, why are we continuing to launch products? But I think the trick is now that we've been launching all these products, how can we get the shops to buy from us, right? So this is where we believe the role for the express delivery is important because the ultimate key message to them is that, "Hey, make more profit, but you don't have to commit any capital," right? No stock, make more profit. You just offer our products, whatever they may be, and then we'll deliver it to you in less than two hours. And if we can do this everywhere across the nation...

I mean, imagine yourself, if you're a shop owner, Yan Long, would you say no to a less than two-hour delivery, right? Where you can offer this whatever product that you want from us, and then you'll get the product in less than two hours. So this is why we believe that, okay, this is an important step for us to take, so that even though customers are very happy with one-day delivery, but if you want to offer something new to consumer, they're not gonna wait one day. But will they wait less than two hours? Most likely, yes. So this is how we're gonna couple the strategy that we have within the product innovation side with the push, with the express delivery.

But if you go back to the marketing spend or the BTL that we do, okay, first of all, I explained the BTL is predominantly for new products, right? For the existing ones, they, they're more or less the same in terms of budget and everything else. And secondly, the marketing has a lot more to do with the branding or with the repainting of the shops and things like that. But no, I think I don't think that we'll dial down what we've spent so far in Q3. In fact, we'll continue to maintain that aggressiveness in Q4. But we're really trying to maximize more that the shops can buy by various strategies, one of which is the express delivery. I hope that answered your questions.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question from Divya. With brand prices rising, is there going to be a need to take more price hikes in 2024? What is the raw material situation for Avian?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Maybe Robert want to answer the raw material, and then I'll answer the price hike.

Robert Tanoko
Operations and Development Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

All right. So, at this point in time, we are quite comfortable with the raw material prices at this point in time, because from last year, if we look at the year-on-year raw material prices, we have quite comfortable on a reduction. Especially, again, on the Brent oil price, right? As Pak Hadi mentioned, not all of our paint raw materials are related to the Brent oil price. So be mindful that even the oil price has increased from $80 to $89, it's only mostly on the resin part and the packaging side, where it's only contributes about 30%-40% of our raw materials. But then there is also we need to be cautious about the exchange rate, which is with the weakening rupiah.

We see that the weakening rupiah now has reached about 6%, and of course, we would like to always be cautious about this. But, at this point in time, we are quite comfortable with the raw material price.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

If we go back to the product portfolio, there Terry, you can see that, if we are going to have to take price hikes next year, if the oil continue to go up, as well as the rupiah exchange rate continue to weaken, then we have no choice but to implement another price hike. But this is where things are different, right? If we go back two years ago, where we have been taking a lot of price hikes during COVID years, we did not have a lot of the more economical product range within our product portfolio, but now we do, Divya. So let's say we are going to take a price hike in Q1 next year, that's fine, because consumers who do not have enough money, for instance, they can go down one grade or maybe two grades, right?

But one thing that I hope you guys can notice in this page, right, if you look in the wall paint category and then look from number one to number three in terms of price range, you will see only two brands, right? One is Avitex, one is Aries, right? So we've also made a decision as a company to streamline our product portfolio. And then if you go to the premium in the wall paint, you also see two brands, right? One is called Sunguard, the other one is called Supers ilk, right? So this is what we will be doing in the future. We only want to have two product portfolio in the different segments, so that we, what we'll do then, when we want to create more economical product, is to just do brand extension.

So essentially, if you're a consumer and you, you experience a price hike that you feel that the price for this product, "I used to buy Avitex, but now Avitex is too expensive, but I want to buy something else," well, I can buy Avitex Wiz, because Avitex Wiz is positioned to be 15% cheaper than normal Avitex... similarly, with No Drop. No Drop is too expensive. Maybe I want to go to No Drop Basic, and No Drop Basic is positioned 15% cheaper than the normal No Drop. Likewise, with the glue, likewise, with, with, with many other products, and likewise, with the wood and metal, for instance. We had Avian, and now we have Avian Cling. So this is what makes us different again, right?

Because of the innovation capability that we've had in the, you know, we've been able to launch all these products to complete our product portfolio, so that when a price hike needs to be implemented, whether that's in the Q4 or maybe probably not Q4, most likely maybe Q1 or Q2 next year, then we are in a better positions than we were two years ago because we now have all these more economical products completing our product portfolio, and consumers can still buy the same brand that they were buying before, except now they just go down one category. I think that's how we look at it.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Next question from Ali. Please, can you elaborate on how valuable express delivery is for the retailers? Does this make that much of a difference if they can get products in two hours versus one day?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

The big difference, Ali, is that when you want to offer new products to your consumers, right? So imagine you're a painter, you're a homeowner walking into a paint shop, right? And then the paint shop say, "Hey, Ali, would you like to try this product? We have this new product. The product is good, it's cheaper, so if you have less budget, you can use this," right? The moment you say, "Yes. All right, I'll try it." Okay? Before express delivery exists, what it means is that, "Okay, can you come back tomorrow and try this? But do you want to wait until tomorrow?" That's one question, right? So what we're telling our customers now is that, "Hey, you guys need to maximize this," right? We're pushing this concept everywhere across the nation.

As soon as they are launched into any particular DC, we make sure that all the shops there know that the express delivery is now present in your DC, and take advantage of it, right? Because the ultimate goal is to get the shops to offer more and more products that we have, okay? All the products that you saw just now in that product portfolio is quite vast. And I tell you, we have way more than that, which is not listed on that page. So how do we get them to buy more of this? Well, we are hoping that this will be a game changer, because if any of our competitors wants to copy this, well, it would require them to have as many warehouses as we do.

Because if they don't, then the number of retail outlets from our competitor's point of view that can enjoy it will not be more than 30,000, but maybe only 10,000, right? So we definitely have an edge over our competitors when this service is really being enjoyed by our customers. But the ultimate goal here, Ali, is to get them to try and sell more of our products that they've never sold previously. So the short results, short-term results that we've had from the 20 or so DCs that we have launched this express delivery is very promising. And what I mean by very promising is that retailers are now willing to try to offer products that they never sold before, which obviously is the final goal for this, right? It's like...

I mean, the way I think about it is like when you think about Amazon Prime being launched, you know, a decade ago or something, right? It was a two-day delivery in the U.S. People didn't need it, right? But then when Amazon offered two-day delivery, they felt that it's great. But a few years ago, Amazon stepped up their game, and they changed Prime into one day, right? I mean, you know, nobody complained with two days, but now that you have one day, will you complain with one day, right? So that's what we're trying to do as a company, right? Customers are happy with one day delivery, but if I can do this in less than two hours, right, will they now buy more products from us? So that's basically what we're trying to think. And logically speaking, why wouldn't they, right?

If I have, I don't have to deploy any more capital, and I can offer products, and I can make more profit, why wouldn't I use it, right? It's zero cost for me, you know, and consumers should be willing to wait. And keep in mind that we continue to add more and more DCs, right? When more and more DCs are being added, then obviously more and more retail outlets can enjoy this type of benefit. So this is what we'll be doing between now to the end of this year, and we'll definitely keep a very close eye on how this will be beneficial for the company. But one thing that we haven't discussed here, you guys noticed that the 50% lower delivery cost, this is real. So by using this, the cost per shipment per shop is actually 50% cheaper.

So you know, we're trying to incentivize shops to buy more, but at the same time, as a company, we also enjoy this benefit. So you'll notice that sometime next year, the number of delivery trucks that we have will go down to be less than 600. Because when we are going to deploy more of these three-wheelers, we may make a decision to reduce some trucks in some DCs to balance them out. Because if the metropolitan areas are being serviced by these three-wheelers in such a more efficient manner, we don't need as many trucks. So we are expecting to have reduction in our delivery trucks next year, I don't know, by 20-40 or maybe 50 at most, and then we'll have more of this vehicle instead.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Great. Next, from Ali again. Please, can you elaborate on where you expect growth and EBITDA margins to be in 2023 and 2024? G iven current raw material prices and your pricing strategy?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay, thank you for your question, Ali. I think if we want to look at the full year 2023, I think we should look at the Q4. I think for raw material, as explained by Pak Robert earlier, not all of our raw material is affected by the oil price, yeah. So, we still feel quite comfortable with the we can maintain the raw material costs. But for the contribution of the trading goods, I think will be similar with those in Q3. And for the BTL, I think we still maintain our effort in marketing, so we can assume that the gross margin for the Q4 will be at the same level with Q3. So, the full year gross margin, I think...

I mean, for the nine months, the gross margin is 44-point-something%, right? So I think if we see that the Q4 margin will be the same level with Q3, I think the full year margin, gross margin, will be slightly lower, because it's affected by the lower gross margin in Q4. For the operating margin, I think historically, our operating expenses is over around 19%, but for Q3, it's went up to around 20% because of DC expansion-related costs and also because of more aggressive marketing approach. So if we assume that the operating expense in Q4 also at around 20%, so I think the EBITDA is also affected, also slightly decreased compared to the YTD Q3. Hopefully, that's answer your question, Ali.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you, Pak Hadi. Next question from Bhavesh. While peers may not be launching products in economical segment, what are they doing on pricing/ASP? Are they cutting prices to pass on cost benefits to customers?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

The answer is no. We haven't seen any of our competitors slashing prices in the market at various categories. But we have seen aggressiveness also in their sales and marketing effort. So we're not the only company that has been increasing our BTL activities. I mean, you know, some peers have also done similarly. But many of the smaller companies, I think they tend to take a position of wait and see. The fact is, that's what they were doing also throughout COVID, right? When sales were impacted in COVID, when profit margin went down in COVID, they also didn't do anything. So the fact that now we're, you know, operating in normal conditions, no longer COVID, they also didn't do anything.

So, so really, the market is really dominated by just a handful of us, and when it comes to, you know, the battle in the market, it's just, again, a handful of us. The rest really don't do much. They just wait and see. But again, because of the nature of the ready-mix dominance in Indonesia versus tinting, you know, price drop, cutting prices in Indonesia is really not gonna happen. I was listening to a few results from Asian Paints these past few months, and if I'm not mistaken, they have actually been reducing selling prices in India because they were aggressively also raising prices there. Obviously, the market dynamic and the conditions is different there because it's more than 90% of sales are coming from tinting machines.

So the stock that retailers carry there is not as high as stock at retailers carry in Indonesia. So in India, price being reduced is a normal activity, but definitely not the case in Indonesia. So competitors, other than those handful, really don't do anything much. I think they're just waiting and seeing, and they're just accepting the fact that the market is weak. Well, we're trying to do different, right? We're trying to explore more products. And like I said, last time in the earnings call, right, my team and I, we every year, we go out to look at the different markets in the region to see whether we can learn about all the different products that we may need to have within our product portfolio.

So we already plan out what we need to launch next year. And we need to know, we already know what it is that we have to be to be doing next year, so that even when election is happening and everything else, you know, we'll still be able to to do better. Because, to be honest, you know, I know that we're better than just delivering just single-digit results. So we, you know, we are pushing extremely hard next year to try to go back to how things were before COVID, so that we can continue and deliver double-digit results. That's what the aim is.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question from Yuan Long. For the 20 DCs that you have rolled out three-wheeler service, how has the uptake been among the, your customer base within that 40 km or 50 km radius? I appreciate the logic, reduce working capital burden for dealers.... But do the dealers understand this too? Is competition copying what you are doing?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Mm-hmm. So, so far, Yuan Long, no competition has been copying, but now that we've shared it here, so you can guess who will most likely copy this idea. But nevertheless, right, it all comes down to, you know, this is not the only thing that we'll be launching, right? There's a lot more initiatives that we'll be doing to complement this, which I cannot share here. But to give you an answer, a short answer, in around the 20 DCs that we have been launching this, right, the three-wheelers exist, the uptake is certainly very promising, right? And ultimately, what I want to get at is for the shops to offer more of our products, because that translates to new sales, right? That translates to them not buying anything ever, and now, huh, let me try this, right?

Because what will happen logically is that if you are a shop owner, right, and you start to sell, you know, the same product two or three times, right, maybe by the fourth time, you'll make a decision, "Okay, maybe I need to carry a little bit in inventory," right? Because, I mean, I can sell this product now, and I don't wanna wait two hours every time. But without this as an offering, the reluctance from the shop's point of view in trying to sell new items is always the one thing, which is, if I buy this product and I cannot sell, what am I gonna do with it, right? And we're trying to solve that dilemma, right?

We're trying to tell them, like, "Look, don't try anything, right, and do this." So in some areas, Yuan Long, in area, in shop locations where the traffic is very high, right, we're now able to go there and offer them, "Look, if you feel that by us placing a sales promotion boy or sales promotion girl in your shop can help you to sell more of our products, we're willing to try it out." And it, again, it costs you nothing. You don't have to carry extra inventory. We just get our people to offer more products where you can make more profit using this three-wheeler concept. So I think, you know, this is how we, we see the benefit that will be, you know, everywhere in the country, and that's why we make a decision, you know, 20 locations showing good results.

I don't wanna wait anymore. We just ordered around 150 units or something of this three-wheeler, and then we're just gonna deploy everywhere. So, yeah, and you can see here, this is an actual photo. It's not a 3D image. So we're doing branding, and we're sending this everywhere in the region between now to the end of the year.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next, question from Yuan Long . How do you measure the effectiveness of your advertising slash BTL slash sales and marketing spend, since Avia is spending much more on advertising and promotion now?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So first of all, let me remind you that for the existing products, they barely go up, right? They're flat. So the increase is really because of the new products, right? And more of the new products are in the wall paint category, right? Maybe one in the more economical waterproofing, and one more in the glue, for instance. But the way we see it is that, in times now, where shops are really reluctant, while they're not taking advantage of the express delivery, right? If the express delivery is not yet available in their region, right, then the only way for us to get them to buy more from us to, is to by giving them a very, an incentive to the extent where they're gonna say, "Wow, this is crazy.

It's so appealing to me, so I'm gonna try to buy that product," right? And that's what we needed to do in a tough market where things are at this point in time, right? But we believe that we will maintain this, especially for the wall paints, right? Waterproofing, no problem. We'll as soon as the product is launched, No Drop Basic, we will definitely scale down the promotions, because it's a more economical product. It makes sense that they make lesser in terms of their promotions.

But for the wall paint, I think the same strategy that we adopted for Avitex Gold will be implemented for other Avitex as well, as well as other Aries, for instance, because we wanted them to be excited in selling our products rather than selling whatever products that they have right now, because they barely make any profit. And I think that's one way for us is to drive more sales on the wall paint, and therefore, which will lead to also a healthier growth in terms of volume. And we're really identifying areas where the different product needs to be pushed.

So like I said earlier, in cities where the buying power is relatively weak and Avitex Gold can only be sold at a few locations, then obviously we will try to push for more products, which is more economical, so that, you know, that particular market can accept the positioning of the new product that we're trying to push there, whether that's Avitex Base or Aries Gold or Aries Bling, for instance.

But this is a strategy that we feel will allow us to continue to gain market share, because if none of our competitors are launching any other products in this, right, and from the shop's point of view, well, you know, either I buy one product that I already have now, I make no profit, but here you are, you're coming in with a new product, same quality, very similar price, selling price to the consumer, but I make a lot more in terms of profit. So that's how we see it as, as, as a strategy that we will need to continue to adopt for the wall paint in particular.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yep. Question from-

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Sorry. Oh, and the way we measure it, Yuan Long, is by, I think two parameters. One, we look at the number of shops that buy the product, which is important, and number two is how much sales are they, are we generating for that new product? Go ahead, Andreas.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay, Pak. A question from Felicia. Trading goods revenue went up by 10% Q on Q, 4% year-on-year. Can I check if this is more driven by pricing improvement or volume?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

It's by volume, Felicia. So I think safe to say that the trading goods segment is experiencing a rebound from where they were, because trading goods haven't been performing well. And that's why I was quite shocked also that in Q3, the trading goods contribution was up to 22%. So I was like, "Wow, there's a rebound!" And you can see it in the market, that demand for PVC pipe, in particular, has been very robust. But if we did not implement a price hike whatsoever in the trading goods segment, so it's definitely because of volume. And I think things are recovering.

People have been holding, postponing any of the products that fall under the trading goods, but now they've decided to, "Hey, maybe I need to do this." So that's why we witness a healthy growth in the PVC pipe segment.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question from Robin. Hi, Avian team. Happy 45th anniversary. A few from me. If minimum wage increase is a key concern, should we be more upbeat heading toward elections-

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Mm.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Given political handouts? Can we have some insight into 2024 guidance, please? And then next question, waterproofing is stronghold, but No Drop Basic launch coincided with -10% Q-on-Q decline in waterproofing revenue. Any thoughts on this? Thank you.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

So the first question, Robin, we're definitely going to be in a better position next year when the discrepancy between the minimum wage, as well as the price inflations of paint in particular, are gonna get even lesser, right? We're now at around 10%, but next year, with minimum wage going up, you know, more, and prices for paints, barely go up this year or not even going up yet, for now, you know, then the gap will be even smaller. So I think we'll be better positioned because of that. And plus, keep in mind that next year, we'll also enjoy the full benefit of all the product launches that we've had this year, right? Including some of the more economical products in Q3, Q4 or whatever that is in, you know, in this year.

So I think we'll be. That's why I'm thinking quite positively about what will happen to our numbers next year. And again, the many strategies that we'll be deploying will be supportive of that. But in terms of guidance, look, guys, I'm ashamed to be missing guidance every time, so maybe I'm not that good in giving guidance. So I think I will take a more less optimistic guidance giving so that I can basically deliver more. I think that's how I look at it. Because it seems like every time I give you guys a number, I'm not delivering on them, so maybe Pak Hadi needs to give better guidance than I can, or maybe I'll ask Hadi to do it, because I don't think I'm doing a good job.

But the way I see it is that, look, we will do a lot of things next year, to the extent where if our competitors don't really you know complain that Avian is becoming crazy, then, you know, then we're not doing our job. That's what we want to do. We want our competitors to say: "What is Avian doing? Why are they doing so many things all at once? Why are they doing this and that?" And that's exactly how we're thinking about our approach into next year. We're really looking at everything that we have, what else can we do, and then how can we streamline the operations? What else can we get the shops to buy? How can we improve the buying from the consumers?

Everything that you can possibly think of, we're thinking alongside of those. But in terms of guidance, again, I don't want to be just putting numbers out there. I'd rather give conservative numbers, and hopefully I can really outpace them. But in my mind, I mean, when I'm giving targets to my team, it is certainly gonna be in the double digits. We never give them a single-digit target, always in double digits. But the fact is, we haven't been delivering, so that's what I'm trying to change now, because you know, we have to make some changes, otherwise it's not gonna be good for the company. And secondly, you mentioned that the No Drop revenue in Q3 dropped by 10%.

I don't think that assessment is true, Robin. Pak Hadi, I think if you look, Q3 versus Q3, did our waterproofing this year drop by 10%?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Not really, Pak.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

It is -10% Q-on-Q, Pak.

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Q-on-Q, oh, yeah.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Is that true? Because I think in Q3, we also launched the No Drop 3-in-1 . We'll get back to you separately on that, Robin.

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Can we go to the next question, Andreas?

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah, Pak. Next question, question from Jun Yong: How are inventory levels at the dealers or retailers?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So when we enter Q2, or the first half of this year, Jun Yong, the inventory levels, I mentioned that they're back to normal, right? But when we look at Q3, I think retailers are starting to feel a bit more built up... because they're not seeing consumers walking in and buying, right? And I think the fact that many other FMCG companies, you know, reporting poor Q3 performances, also is an indicator that the market is pretty weak, right? And, and one thing that we noticed that we read on the news is that the fact that rice prices in Indonesia went up by 15%, and everybody eats rice in Indonesia. So, that's not a good thing to be seeing in the market.

But now, because of the, you know, the multiple approaches that we're trying to do, we believe that retailers are sitting on higher inventory levels than they were in the first half. So that's why we felt that, look, we don't have any choice but to take a more conservative approach in Q4 and have to reduce our guidance for this year. Because retailers are really not buying as much as they want to, because in their minds, consumers are not walking in and buying more product from them. So, yeah, we believe that retailers are definitely sitting on higher inventory levels compared to what they had in the first half this year, Jun Yong. But not as high as pre-COVID during the COVID time. That's for sure.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Next question from Shuling. Shuling has two question. Number one, "Implied ASP backing out from sales and volume growth seems to indicate ASP compression year-over-year. Can management share if this tallies with internal numbers, and why this is so? Is there downgrading?" Question number two: "On gross margin, has management done some sensitivity on impact with higher oil prices?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. I think for the ASP, because of because we launched some of the more economical products, so on ASP is also affected, yeah. So yeah, we see that slightly decline on the ASP, as in general. Number two, for the the impact on the oil price, again, not all the inventory, not all the raw material is affected by the oil price. But if we assume that 30 or 20 or 30% of the raw material is impacted by the oil price, I think because the raw material is around 50% of the COGS, and COGS is around 50% of the sales from the architecture solution, so we can do some kind of like sensitivity analysis. Yes.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. And then question from Divya. "Follow up, what is the level of EBITDA margin that you want to maintain in near term? It was 25% in quarter three, but first half was 29%. Is 25% the comfort level now, given the need to invest in branding?

Kurnia Hadi
Finance Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. I think, because of the... If we're talking about PTL, yes, I think we want to sacrifice a little bit on the margin. But, when we're talking about EBITDA, we're also talking about the gross margin, right? It's also affected from that side, right? But, on the raw material, I think we're quite comfortable that we can maintain the margin quite okay. So, I think the effect on the EBITDA, if we can improve the sales in the coming years, I think we will maintain at the level back around 26-27.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. I mean, to add to that, Divya, I think 25 is definitely too low for us. We'd like to do it. But look, which is why I think if we go back to the whole idea of express delivery, right? Not everything that we do needs to cost us money, right? When we offer our customers the convenience of using the express delivery, so and essentially for them to sell more products, right, we don't need to offer them anything except that it will take them less than two hours to get the goods, right? So express delivery, it really does not cost us anything. And to improve on this, right, when we are going to reduce the number of delivery trucks that we have, we're also trying to balance, you know, the small CapEx that we'll deploy to add the three-wheelers.

And then we sell some of our trucks if... You know, we sell our trucks every eight years, right? So when we sell them, then we're not gonna replenish them. We'll just use the three-wheelers instead. In terms of manpower, once those trucks are sold, then the two people that operate the trucks can now operate two of these two-wheelers, right? Because the two-wheelers only require one person, whereas trucks require two people. So if we can also push a lot of sales to come in from the three-wheelers or the express delivery approach, then you know, we can improve a lot of that performance and then bring back our EBITDA. Because if we're trying to do all kinds of things without also taking advantage of our ecosystem and trying to push for more sales...

You know, then I think that will not be a wise course of action, but we are. So we're fully realizing that we've been spending money on doing branding, on doing advertising, on doing marketing, blah, blah, blah. But at the same time, it's like, okay, what is there things that don't cost us extra? Is there things that don't require any money to come out from the company's pocket? Well, this is it, right? If shops all of a sudden start to buy all the different products that we have, it doesn't really cost the company anything. So you know, I think we can improve the EBITDA that we did in Q3, so that we can go back, maybe not as high as 29, but at least we're aiming to be in the 27-ish level.

That's how I see it.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question, coming from Sukrit. Thank you for the previous answer. I have a couple more. What is the... What is the mix or split between premium, mass, and economical product? And has the mix changed materially this year yet? And then the second question coming from Sukrit again. If express delivery become widely accepted, could that lead to higher costs for Avian? Does the dealer have to pay extra for this, the express delivery? How much, volume-wise, can dealer order under this express delivery? Thank you.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

So if we look at the product mix that we have, no, we haven't noticed any significant changes to the contributions for this. It'll be a bit difficult for us to give you a comparison in terms of the sales breakdown now, because we already share enough within our pie chart, and I don't want our competitors to gain any more, even more insights on the detail or even on the breakdowns of our product portfolio. But if... On your second question with regards to express delivery, right? The express delivery can ship up to 500 kilograms. So the box that you see at the back of that will have the capability of delivering up to 500 kilograms at once.

Whereas a normal truck, a four-wheeler truck, will have the capability of delivering about 3,500-4,000 kilograms. So this is definitely only one-eighth of that. But in terms of cost, like I said here, it's actually cheaper to be delivering this by this. Because the fact is, even though we have all these trucks, right, what you guys may not know is that the trucks are not always full, okay? Because we don't, the... Now, with the new software that we've been installing within the supply chain, right? So when we go out from our warehouse, the truck needs to complete a full delivery in one day, okay?

When you go for one route in one day, I think we have the capability of making deliveries between 15-17 locations or 17 shops per day. So that's what the truck needs to do. But the question is, are the trucks always full? The answer is no, they're not always full. So trucks are not always full because shops can order however amount they want, right? So in fact, we believe that within the 30,000 shops, which can be covered, you know, around the 40-kilometer radius, we believe that they can actually benefit more from three-wheelers. And, but we don't think that it will cost the company extra, because the number of three-wheelers is only about one-fifth of a truck. And then, you only require one operator, right, for this, right?

The other benefit is that you don't have to pay such an expensive maintenance. For cars, you know, the maintenance fee every year is expensive. This is essentially a motorcycle, right? So maintenance for motorcycle is very cheap. Another issue is that for trucks, you have to buy petrol, which is a lot more expensive, and then this is a motorcycle. So you can buy subsidized petrol because this is a motorcycle. So when you combine all those benefits, right, we believe that having the express delivery will not be adding to the delivery cost that we have. And so we're quite confident we can do this well. And obviously, the goal is for this to be adopted at all shops and...

But we are still limited to about 40 km because you can't drive a motorcycle if it's, you know, beyond that. I think we just think that it's too far.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Next question from Theodorus Melvin. Thank you, Ruslan, Robert, and Pak Kurnia, for the opportunity to ask. This is Melvin from StockBit. Firstly, congratulations on impressive results. I truly appreciate the year-on-year improvement, particularly given the challenging circumstances. There are three questions from me. Number one, could you give any color on the middle up segment? Is their purchasing power still robust, contributing positively to the company performance despite the challenges faced by the lower- middle income segment? Number two, I'm curious, are you considering supplying paint for the IKN project? It seems that several building materials companies, like those in cement industries, are keen to securing contracts from IKN. Thanks. Only two questions.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Great. So, let's talk about the IKN first, right? With regards to this new... First of all, we don't supply directly to any government entities. I think it's all over the news, right? That many of the government entities who prioritizes in constructions are all under big trouble now, right? They have heavy loan, $ billions everywhere, and then, they're really essentially are under a lot of pressure now, which is why we don't supply to them. But the good thing about IKN is that, you know, it's located between the two cities. One is Balikpapan, the other one is Samarinda. And in that very province, the market leader for paint is us, so we're the market leader there.

It's impossible for IKN to be built with you know, workforce all imported from Java or from Jakarta, right? They're bound to use local people, you know, either from Samarinda or from Balikpapan. So there's a high chance that our products are gonna be used. But on top of that, while we are not supplying to government entities directly, we're always making proactive, you know, approach in trying to get our products to be understood by the various government entities. So we now have set up a project division team that has been quite aggressive in training various contractors, architects, and, you know, builders everywhere across the country, so that they become familiar with a lot more products that we have, within our product portfolio. So we're doing the same thing with the government entity.

So obviously, even though we don't supply to them directly, but I think if the knowledge of our products are there, you know, they can still get the products, right? But going back to your first question, what was the first question, Andrea? Sorry.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Would you give any color on the middle up segment?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Right. Sorry. So I think if you look into the middle up segment, right? I think, oh, the easiest way to look at this is by looking at the performances of Mitra10, ACE Hardware, or maybe Depo Bangunan to that extent, right? I think if you look... I haven't seen the results for ACE Hardware yet as of today, but I have seen the result for, Mitra10, yesterday. And the growth within Mitra10 is around 5% for their paint segment, which is more or less in line with, with our performance. But their number is way smaller, right? I think, every month they sell less than one hundred... or around IDR 100 billion of paint, whereas we, we, we sell, you know, more than IDR 400 billion, right?

So, their number is smaller than us, and yet their growth is also in the 5%-ish margin. So I think even though... And, if you look into Mitra10, if you look in the category of Mitra10, you only see from category three upwards. Mitra10 does not sell paint in category two or one. They only sell it in the category three, four, and five, and even then, the growth is only around 5%. So I think even the middle-up, this time around, is also experiencing a similar kind of pressure. And, the honest truth is, I don't know why, because these are the kind of people who always have money, right? So if they're not spending, it must be for something else, and we're not really sure what that reason is.

But that's how I see it in that. I'm looking forward to see how ACE will fare this year. But ACE, again, doesn't sell a lot of paint, right? ACE sales is very low in terms of contribution from paint. They sell many more other products, but not paint. So, but just to gauge in terms of the buying power, we can use ACE also as a benchmark.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

I think due to time constraint, we will allow one more question for the last question, but the last question coming from Leonard Lim: "While I appreciate your strategy of offering full range of products, could the downgrading lead to lower margins? What is the margin differential between your premium, mid-range, and economical products?

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Yeah. So the easiest way to discuss this is by looking at No Drop Basic for, for now, right? So if you look at our bestseller, which is the normal No Drop in the blue can under category four, right? What we're giving in terms of below the line to our retailers is about 15%. So for No Drop Basic, in the first three months that it's launched, I'm also giving them 15%. But what happens after three months is that No Drop Basic BTL budget will be dropped to 10%. And guess what? The gross margin between No Drop and No Drop Basic is 5% difference. So we're doing, you know, that kind of strategy, right?

Well, if we make 5% less on the gross margin, I should also give shops 5% less in terms of BTL promotions. So that's what we're doing. So we're adopting a similar kind of approach with many other products that we have, so that while they are downgrading, the gross margin can still be maintained, right? But look, what we're also realizing is that consumers don't really like to downgrade unless they have no choice, right? Because it's you know, as Indonesian consumers become more wealthy in the future, right, or even now, you know, the tendency is for them to go up, right? Not go down. So I think we're in a good position for now to keep an eye on the you know, gross margin compression. But we're managing that quite well, I believe.

You know, for the wall paint, like I said, we're always keeping an eye on the gross margin also, and keeping an eye on, you know, the kind of BTL activities. But that's something that we've decided to do because we needed to be super aggressive in the wall paint category to drag, to get more market shares from the others.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Okay. Thank you. If you have any questions that have not been answered, please feel free to email me, and I will make sure to coordinate with the management and get back to you as soon as possible. Once again, we appreciate your participation in our Q3 of 2023 earnings call today, and hope to see you again in our next earnings call. Take care and bye-bye.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Take care.

Robert Tanoko
Operations and Development Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you so much.

Andreas Timothy Hadikrisno
Head of Investor Relations, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Thank you.

Ruslan Tanoko
Vice President Director, PT Avia Avian Tbk

Bye.

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