Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to XL Axiata earnings call for nine months 2022, until September 30, 2022. My name is Christy, Investor Relations of XL Axiata , and I will be your moderator for today. During the presentation, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's remarks, there will be question and answer session. The Q&A will be a hybrid session as per last quarter. To ask question, please type it in the Q&A box with your full name and company name. Otherwise, we will not be able to address it. After your question is answered, if there are further clarification, we will call your name and you may unmute your mic to verbally ask one more follow-up question. As a reminder, this session is being recorded for replay purposes.
With me on the call today are Dian Siswarini, our CEO, Budi Pramantika, our CFO, David, our CTO for consumer, and Abhijit , our CTO for enterprise and home. Now, without further ado, Dian Siswarini will share the highlights for nine months, 2022, which will then be followed by the Q&A session. I will now hand over the call to Dian Siswarini.
Thank you, Christy, and good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining our first nine months 2022 earnings call today. Let me go first to the first slide. First slide is showing key highlights and progress for our first nine months of 2022. We are happy to report another good set of results in the first nine months. Despite the challenging economic environment, we continue to outperform the industry and book revenue growth of 9% year-on-year, the continuity of our strong momentum year to date. In fact, we are the only operator that grew both subscribers and ARPU. As of the third quarter 2022, our ARPU is at IDR 40,000, which is an important milestone. This is made possible by our consistent implementation of business strategy that focus on superior network quality, customer experience and data monetization.
To sustain the network performance, we have completed 95% of our 3G shutdown, and we re-farm the spectrum to widen the competitive edge of our network quality. All the efforts garnered us to remain the first telco operator in download speed and video experience in the first nine months of 2022. We are also pleased to report that our convergence initiatives continue to surpass expectation. By end of September, 32% of our FTTH base is converge subscribers, as opposed to 28% last June. In the third quarter of 2022, we have also successfully listed our bonds and sukuk of IDR 3 trillion. The bonds are rated AAA by Fitch, was oversubscribed by 183% during its book building, thus giving us favorable interest rate at 6.7%-8.25% per annum.
We are further encouraged by the trust and confidence given by the investors during the bond issuance. Let's go to the next slide. Telco industry remained rational in the third quarter. Competition is tracking where it was last quarter. Impact on consumption due to fuel price hike and also increase in price inflation rate are still quite limited in the third quarter. We believe it was still bolstered by social support from the government. Data service will continue to be resilient, mobility returning to normal while retaining the hybrid lifestyle. Now customer experience is more important than ever. Higher quality is expected as data has become a primary part of our day-to-day activities. We see the connectivity needs for customers to be more convenient, which is in line with our convergence offerings.
To cater to rising demands, we continue to sustain our innovative ways in advancing our network infrastructure through digitalization and spectrum usage optimization, further enhancing the customer experience. Aside from the 3G shutdown mentioned earlier, our 4G BTS has increased by 29% year on year. This is on top of new technology implementation that will increase throughput. Our innovative network endeavors are fruitful, as in Q3 we retained our number one position in download speed and network experience. We also continue to push for digital transformation, not only for our customers through our own apps, but also internally on our business process. For instance, our B2Pay item that has cut down processing time by 90%, further enhancing organizational agility response to market development.
We continue to see developments throughout this quarter encouraging results, but we will also be prudent at risk to performance pursuits, which include possible weaker consumption as a result of macroeconomic pressure, risk of aggressive competition to return, as well as prolonged geopolitical issue impact on supply chain. Next slide, please. Following the Link Net acquisition that we and Axiata completed earlier this year, we have laid out XL and Link Net synergy plan. We launched XL Link Net collaborative product last October, and we expect more synergy to materialize soon. This synergy will optimize our backbone, submarine cable, and fiber development as well as implementing data analytics that we have to better target area of distribution and sales. To top it off, of course, our rollout will be most efficient and faster in allowing us to capture the market.
Now I will move on to our financial and operational performance in the next slide. There are some key indicators of the first nine months of 2022. We believe all of our metrics are moving in the right direction, as our revenue remains strong, especially on data and digital services, supported by cost and operational excellence efforts. Our EBITDA margin grew healthily by 5% year-on-year to IDR 10.37 billion, with margins recorded at 48%. Normalized PATAMI grew by 17% year-on-year. By end of third quarter 2022, subscribers are recorded at 57.4 million, with ARPU booked IDR 40,000. This result because we managed to reap the benefits from network superiority and dynamic pricing strategy. Let's move on into the network investment and the digitalization initiative.
Our 4G BTS count is now above 90,000, with less than 2,000 remaining of our 3G BTS. Our own apps have outperformed our expectations, with monthly active users grew 60% in the last 12 months, and currently, around 40% of our base are already using the apps. We also continue to aggressively fiberize our sites. As of first nine months of 2022, 52% of our sites are fiberized, an increase of 19 percentage points year-on-year. This magnitude increase is significant considering that we continue rolling out additional sites annually. Ultimately, the increased investment we have put in will help in making our business more efficient. Our traffic grew in a healthy trajectory as well, showing that customers enjoying the quality of our data network, which leads to a higher revenue market share. Let's move to the last slide.
To conclude my remarks, we reiterate our aim to grow our revenue at least in line with market, if not higher. This will be achievable as per the first nine months, we grew faster than the market. The EBITDA margin guidance at around 50%. However, with the recent macro situation, this might be positioned slightly lower than 50%. We will continue investing in our network with CapEx guidance capped around IDR 9 billion. Now let us proceed with the Q&A session.
Thank you, Dian, for these remarks. As a reminder, the Q&A session will be a hybrid mode. To ask your question, please type it in the Q&A box, and please ensure to use your full name and company name. I will read out the first question coming from Nicholas from Exane. First, how is the pricing environment looking? Do you think price will continue to move up? Second is, what is your plan on Link? Will there be a possibility of us taking a 100% stake on the company?
Maybe let me take the first one regarding the price, the competitive environment and the price environment. As we are all aware, we did two big price increases in March and June, quarter one and quarter two. Almost all operators. I think from that point on, I think the incumbent, which is important, has been able to maintain that price increase. We haven't seen anything big changes from the incumbent during the third quarter. From IOH, on the other hand, yes, we have seen changes. Unfortunately, we have seen them going more aggressive.
They have done a very big full quota promotion in more than 150 cities, which is giving double the quota for the same price or literally reducing half the price, right, in many of their packages. That's more in the IM3 area. In Hutch, we see still a lot of aggressivity, especially in the acquisition products, where they are selling the SIM cards even what we believe to be the cost price, right? I think again mixed feelings. In general, I think, okay, the industry has been able to more or less maintain, especially because the incumbent has been there. We have not changed the prices at all since that moment. IOH is a little bit the question mark.
Smartfren also has not been moving at all since the last few months. I think that's a little bit the situation. A little bit mixed. In general, okay-ish with that question mark in IOH that has been doing some aggressive moves during the third quarter. Yeah, doing the double quotas and the from IM3 and the very cheap SPs, but also in IM3, but especially in Hutch side.
Abhijit?
Yeah. I'll take the second question. On Link Net. This is Abhijit, by the way. As all of you are aware, we have recently concluded the MTO. The effective shareholding between Axiata and XL is around 96% now, right? For all practical purposes, we have a significant majority. I think the focus is, as Dian was alluding to earlier in her presentation, is on driving the synergies further. Two weeks ago, we launched our mobile product in their base, and we are also working on the cost side of the equation, carrying of our network backbone, et cetera. Those efforts will continue at full speed.
Thank you, Abhijit. Thank you, David. Norman Choong , CLSA. First is regarding the feasibility of price hike in Q4 2022, should we expect similar 8%-9% jump like that it was in second quarter?
Yeah. As I was saying, we are still looking into the industry. We have had a little bit of everything, right? With the incumbent maintaining the prices, IOH going a little bit more aggressive. We are still analyzing city by city what is the strategy to follow. Again, we know that the yields are still low, and we are 100% into move prices up again. If in quarter four, better than in quarter one. As I'm saying, we will keep observing a little bit the market and take decisions depending on that.
Thanks, David. Next question coming from Aurellia Setiabudi of BNI Sekuritas. What is the ARPU on convergence? Second, what is the target for convergence penetration over the next three years? Third, any comments regarding the merger news with Link Net?
Yeah. The ARPU for the convergence, actually overall convergence for us is a good story, yeah. We launched it in our footprint, you know, two to three quarters ago. Since then what we are seeing is a few things. The first is increased customer interest. By that what I mean and this is reflected in the penetration we see in our footprint. In our own footprint, we are seeing a penetration of around 32%-33%, which has increased from last quarter from 28% to this figure, right? ARPU also is showing very healthy signs with an increase. Currently our convergence ARPU is in the IDR 300+ range. This means that customers are valuing our fixed proposition.
They are also valuing the mobile proposition we combine with the fixed in XL SATU, and usage is continuing, right? We track the performance across existing customers of XL as well as new acquisitions. In both those segments, we are seeing very healthy responses. Target for convergence penetration over the next three years. As I mentioned, we have gone up from 28 to 33. Now, the target is much higher as that, right? If you look at international benchmarks across matured markets like Europe, U.S., et cetera, especially Europe, you will see convergence penetration ranging anything from 40, 50% to above 80% as well.
This is the range we are looking for actually, driving as much upwards as we can because it gives us customer stickiness, it gives us loyalty, it helps our churn, it also increases ARPU. The third question from Aurelia is regarding the merger news with Link Net. I mean, there's always speculation in the market, right? You know, I will desist from responding to any speculation, but I will guide you to my previous answer. We've just finished the MTO, and effectively we have 96% as a family. Operationally, it is enabling us to do whatever we want.
Thanks, Abhijit, for the answer. Next question is coming from Hennessy Birth of Jarvis Securities. First, how is th e customer purchasing power in Q4? What are the market dynamics with other players? Second, what is the plan for Link and Axiata? Again, I think this has been addressed by Abhijit earlier. Question will be on the customer purchasing power.
I think as I was mentioning in quarter three, you can see that the impact has been positive for us, right? Of the price increases. I know that there were some concerns, especially after the fuel prices increased or the subsidy came out, et cetera. So far what we are seeing is that the customer purchasing power is still there. Our traffic has continued to grow. Again, I cannot share much because this is quarter four and this call is for quarter three. We are seeing a correct trajectory from traffic and customer purchasing power. Again, we keep looking at these numbers in a weekly basis because we know that it's very more than volatile. I would say that it can change in any moment, right? If this
Some of the impacts of these macro, global things or even the fuel subsidy things might not hit in a specific moment. They might take a little bit of time. So far, we have not seen the impact, to be honest, but we remain observant of it.
Thanks, David. Next question is from Arthur Pineda of Citigroup. First, what is the driver for the significant Q-on-Q? I know you're talking internet and connections sector. How will this sustain into Q4? Second question is on the salaries and benefits because there's also a jump there. Any one-off bookings? Third, for David probably on the XL push bundled product on the prepaid mobile front, is it going to be a bundled product as well with STPH or more mainly on the postpaid services? Last one is on the company plans regarding 5G in Indonesia.
Okay. Thanks for the question, Arthur. Let me take the first two questions from you. On driving significant Q-on-Q and year-on-year jump in interconnection and access expense, mainly, as we mentioned in our pitch, is driven by device bundling costs. This is related to our 3G shutdown program. Obviously for us, maintaining our customer in our network is very important because cost to acquisition and all consideration on potential revenue, that one we do. The other items as well inside, but I think more on the device bundling. The other item is on the SIM card cost.
As you know, the SIM card price is still on the high side, and we don't see that yet coming, driven by the situation of the global supply chain and also the situations in the Ukraine war that impacting supply of the gas, neon gas for SIM card production. This is the main driver for the cost increasing, impacting our internet performance and other expenses. In terms of the same question, can we get color in the jump in salaries and the benefit. Are these. Are there anyone working? Yes, you're right. If you look at the last year number, if you remember there was an Omnibus Law that impacting our reserve on our retirement plan.
there's a big adjustment happening in last year that not happening, this year. That's one of the impacting the jump if you compare year-on-year, for the salaries and benefit. David, do you want to address the same?
Yeah. I'm not sure about which bundled products you are mentioning. There are like two part to it, right? One can be all the converged product. I will later comment, but maybe you are mentioning about bundled products like device bundling, et cetera, we do. How this works, it's literally a prepaid thing. You can buy a bundle, so let's say six months of internet quota with a device, et cetera, or sometimes even the packet alone, then you have to pay prepaid. You have to pay upfront for the data for the next six or 12 months. Then what do we do? We analyze what happens to those customers after the six and 12 months, right? In order to see whether the churn is higher.
I mean, churn there will be, but how high it is, et cetera, in order to see the profitability of each of these plans or bundled products that we have, right? We keep adjusting that. I can say that currently all the device bundle and handset product that we are selling in the prepaid area are profitable. They are good products that we know we can maintain the customers after the periods or a big portion of the customers and are providing us with profitability. Again, I mean every month we do an analysis of what did we sell six months ago or how are these customers performing in case that we need to adapt any of these prepaid bundles.
Now, regarding to the convergent product, I will let Abhijit later answer. The convergent product is a postpaid. When you buy XL SATU, there is some mobile part in there, certain gigabytes that you receive and take, and you pay at the end. If a quota in XL SATU is not enough and you want to buy additional, currently it's a prepaid thing, so you need to go and buy upfront, let's say an additional five-gigabyte bonus, et cetera, and use that. It's a hybrid method as you can see. Abhijit, if you want to mention something.
No, no, I don't want to add anything. It's just that, you know, we convert. For us prepaid, postpaid, we don't make a big deal out of it, right? It's just a payment mechanism. What we are more focused on whether the customer is staying with us and if he or she is spending more, and the frequency of how they spend with us.
Thank you. Okay. I will address the 5G question. Like I have shared in several occasion before, if it is regarding 5G or any other new technology, there are many aspects that we have to consider. We have to see the readiness of the whole ecosystem. First, regulation, especially in terms of spectrum. The real 5G spectrum is not available yet, and the government still has to do the auction for this to be available and to be utilized by all operators. Second is about 5G device penetration. Currently, 5G device penetration in Indonesia is still very, very low.
From the previous experience, for instance, like from the experience when we launched 4G and also previously 3G, the adoption rate is significantly increased if the device is actually at the sub IDR 1 million. Before that then the adoption will be very low. The third ecosystem that we have to consider is the use cases. Currently the use cases for 5G is still not there. People say that probably the B2B use case will be coming much earlier rather than the consumer market. That still needs to be seen in the future. We think that the investment for 5G will not be necessary.
Before three years from now. I think beyond 2020, beyond 2025, for 5G's investment to come. The next investment cycle for the new technology, I think, beyond three years from now. I hope that answer the question on the 5G.
Yes. Thank you. Next question is from Foong Choong Chen of CIMB. First up on the device bundling cost. Is there also a corresponding revenue from it? And also, what is the net impact on our profitability? Second, do we expect more device bundling in Q4?
Hi, Foong. Thanks for the questions. On the customer device revenue, yes, there is obviously. If you look at our revenue structure, it's sitting in our others category. As Dian and Abhijit talked earlier, we split the revenue between data and digital services and the other bucket is others. That device revenue corresponding to our bundling device program is sitting in this category. Regarding the impact on the absolute EBITDA, as you know, this is more on the retention game. The EBITDA is there, but it's very minimum. Because the focus is to retain the customer for the future business with us. Should we expect more device bundling cost in 4Q, Rasmus?
We still expect some, probably David can add later on, that, as you know, we are gearing up and aggressively refarming the spectrum by shutting down the 3G. We still see some needs to address tactical. It's going to be tactical based to retain this 3G-based customer by offering the 3G handset bundling program. David, you want to add?
Yeah, no, I think as Budi was saying, right, so we started this very clearly in order to be sure that our customers have a 4G device in the moment that we don't have a 3G network. Now, having said that, we are analyzing how these customers, these bundles that we said, we sold, right, how these customers are behaving. To be honest, it's a good behavior. It's good customers and it's working well for us. Now, it's true that most of the 3G is already shut down, so there is still maybe a little bit more. We will keep analyzing, right? So all these bundles that we sell, whether they are profitable or not, and how good the customers are, those customers that we are acquiring are.
Yeah, we'll keep adapting depending on that, right?
Thanks, Budi. Thanks, David. Next question coming from Hussaini Saifee of UBS. First is on the subsidy of 3Q 2022 compared to second quarter and third quarter 2021. I think he's referring to device bundling. Hussaini Saifee, as we mentioned earlier, that device bundling is more of a retention game, and it is slightly profitable. A very minimal impact on our EBITDA, but there are no subsidy involved within that bundling packages. Second question is on the CapEx guidance. Do you see a downward drift as of nine months, since already spending, or we have spent 70 for the year guidance.
Yeah. We still maintain, as Dian and Abhijit talked earlier, we still maintain our CapEx guidance at IDR 9 million. If you compare to the same period last year, 70% up to 3Q is about the right level. We are still running our CapEx at the same speed, and we still are confident IDR 9 million is the number, roughly, that we're going to deliver for the year in terms of our CapEx. Yes, Hussain.
Budi. Hussain, you have a follow-up question. Please unmute your mic and ask your question. Hi, Hussain. Go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just have a few questions. One is on the digital transformation costs. So just wanted to understand that this digital transformation, it is more of a project which you are going to execute in the maybe, say, three to four quarters? Or is it more of an ongoing process and we may not see a drop in digital transformation-related costs? Maybe the second question is, what is your comfortable leverage level? At the current juncture, it is around 2.7x-2.8x . Do you see it going further up maybe in the fourth quarter as the CapEx ramps up? Yeah. Thank you.
Two questions here, Hussain. One related to transformation, and you are more towards the question related to spending related to transformation. I think Dian will answer that journey that as a company we continue transforming. On the digital side, there are two fronts. On the one, I'll let David to talk about what we do on the transformation on the front side, dealing with the customer. On the back end that Dian mentioned, we're able to do a lot of digitalization in terms of back-end process. Dian has said about Procure-to-Pay process. If you deal with us, you will, you'll be impressed that actually we don't do any paper. We're almost a 99% paperless company on the process. We don't issue invoice paper.
We don't accept billing in paper. All being done digital with the robots. That's one of the example. In terms of how much we spend, I think it's already reflected related to the front side on the marketing and sales investment. We, the one that you see in our P&L, that's pretty much the number that ongoing we're going to spend. Because it's not only one-time project, it's going to be ongoing. Any opportunities on transformation on digital, we're going to execute within the numbers that we're looking.
Yeah, correct. I think, as Budi was mentioning, right, but regarding the marketing and sales, I mean, we are doing the project now with the project base, so we expect to see the efficiencies mainly in the future. It's true that we have been spending in the last few months. In any case, you can see that it has already been moving, right? Now Budi was mentioning that that is something that we can expect to see back. We will see more efficiencies, moving forward. As we have mentioned in the past, what we are doing in this transformation, digital transformation, I mean, there are many digital transformations moving on, especially with our customers. How to digitalize the relationship with our customers. But one that is taking part of the cost is the distribution digitalization, right?
It's going in the correct direction, and we expect that it will bring more efficiencies, I mean, next year and in two years from now.
Yeah. On the second part of the question, Hussain, you are asking about our gearing ratio, right? That, as of September, our gross was around 3.2x . In terms of net debt to EBITDA, around 2.78. How do we look at this? I think if you follow us, we have planned to reduce this gearing level to the level that are comfortable for our rating agency to ensure our triple A rating still there. Triple A rating is important to ensure our competitiveness on the interest expense. The plan is to do rights issue somewhere in Q4, in December, and we will be registered with OJK for this, and we already did a couple of announcement related to this. That's the plan.
We're looking at this 3.2% for gross going to come down, slightly below 3%, and then coming down further once the rights issue will be done. The purpose of the rights issues is to repay the loan, especially the one with the high interest rate and the one with interest floating, interest-based debt. We try, because as you know, the interest continue going up, then we try to reduce the balance between floating interest-based debt against the one with the fixed. That's to address your questions. Hope that answers those, Hussaini.
Okay. Thank you, Budi. Follow-up coming from Foong Choong Chen of CGS-CIMB. What was the big drop in rental Q on Q? Also, as labor costs increased, and then a drop in rental cost Q on Q guidance from 50%, do we expect to jump in Q4 to achieve that?
Three questions, Foong. Thanks for the questions. Number one, on what is the increase in labor cost, Q-on-Q. Same like I explained earlier, not only last year there's an Omnibus Law, IFRS adjustment on the reserve for retirement. But also there's a change as well on our IFRS on second quarter this year. If you want to compare, look at the 1Q spending for labor and then compare with 3Q. That's the big part of it. That's one of adjustment into Q 2022 as well.
On the second question related to rental costs, I think this is something that we've been sharing related to rental costs, that 30% of our rental contract on the towers is coming due within one, two years. All this rental will be enjoying the new rates, the one that we've been sharing as well. Now, majority of towers are enjoying the new price, IDR 10 million per tower per month. All this, whenever the contract's due on the tower, we can enjoy the new one. These are one of the benefit that we gain from the rental costs for tower. The third question related to EBITDA margins guidance, 50%.
Dian, I think already gave an indication that we are looking at, based on the recent situation of the macroeconomic and all the situation, we expect around 50% will be closer to slightly below 50%, Foong. That's the speech that Dian said earlier.
Okay. I hope that answer your question, Foong. Next question is from Nicholas Kusuma from PT Shindmado. First question, whether people are moving to lower price packages. Second question, regarding the XL takeover of share in Link Net. That one with-
Okay. Let me maybe on the first question, right? Regarding whether people are moving to lower data, lower price data package. We are not seeing that. We don't see people are moving to lower prices. If by price we mean the denomination price, right? Let me elaborate a little bit more on this. As you know, we have increased prices around 10% in the last quarter, right? In the last few months. Now, we would have expected to have a 10% yield increase. Actually, in our calculations, we were expecting around that, right? A little bit higher than 10% actually. Now, why our yield was flat Q- on- Q? That by the way, nobody asked, but I was expecting the question, right? Why did this happen? Because of two very clear reasons, right?
There were two effects, very strong effects that we saw in our customer base. The first effect is people stretched the data in the package. Usually we have a utilization percentage. The data that they have in the packet, we saw that increase significantly. People previously could use a percentage. I mean, there are people who always use all of it. There are other people who, if the validity expires, and then they have to wait. In total, we see that there is a percentage of utilization. We saw that percentage of utilization increase, so people stretch their packets more than before. That's effect number one. Effect number two, and it's more related to your question, we saw people moving to lower yield packets. Lower yield packets usually are higher. Higher the price than the yield.
This is not related to ARPU by the way. I will enter later on that. These are the two effects, right? We saw people stretch more. Another two, people move to lower yield packets that are usually higher price packets. That's what we saw. We didn't see the opposite effect, which, if you move to lower price packets, it will even boost the yield further, right? Now, is this related to the ARPU? Well, first of all, we are very proud to have entered the 40,000 club, ARPU club in Indonesia, right? That has been monopoly to Telkomsel for forever. I think for the first time we are able to jump into that exclusive club. I think we are happy with that.
Now, that they move to lower to higher price packets doesn't necessarily mean that the ARPU is going to increase. The opposite, that they move to lower price packets doesn't necessarily mean that the ARPU decreases, because they can buy several times in a month, right? I think that's a little bit about it. We didn't see people moving to lower price packets. Actually, what we saw is two effects. People are stretching more their data and moving to lower yield, usually higher priced packets. Consequence of all this, of the price increase, et cetera, for us, has been very positive, and we have been able to enter the 40,000 ARPU club. I hope that this clarifies the first part.
Yeah, Niko. Understand your question on the shareholding and Link Net, right? The reason was the deal was structured this way is because of balance sheet considerations at both XL and Axiata level. We closed the transaction in June, and so far nothing has changed in the balance sheet for us to consider a change in the shareholding. Hope that answers your question on the Link Net.
Thank you, Abhijit. Next question is from Etta Rusdiana Putra of Maybank. First, what was the jump in direct costs, and is it a one-off? Second question, the rationale behind 40% jump in 2G BTS, which will be addressed by Dian Siswarini.
Yeah. On the first one, I think I already answered the question, because it's the same, right? This, the other direct expense, basically the concept of device bundling costs to address our 3G refarming program and also the SIM card. Those two are the major components. Dian Siswarini, go ahead.
Okay, our 2G jump is actually related with the 3G shutdown. As we know, 3G is the technology that can be utilized both for circuit switched voice and also for data. When we move the network from 3G to 4G and we shut down the 3G, we need to have a layer in the network that still can cater for a circuit switched voice. That's why we increased the number of our 2G. The utilization of the spectrum for the 2G is quite thin. Most of the 3G shutdown spectrum that we refarm is for 4G consumption.
Later, if we already have the significant adoption of 4G in our subs base, meaning that the penetration rate of handset with 4G capability is quite high, then we can actually shut down this 2G and move everyone to 4G or even 5G in the future. Or we can the voice connectivity purely in 4G or 5G.
Thank you, Dian. Etta, I hope that answered your question. Next question is coming from Niko Margaronis. There are three questions. I think numbers two and three regarding the bundling cost expectation and also the EBITDA. It's already addressed earlier, Pak. First question we'll be addressing is the customer sentiment. David, do you believe that the worst is taking place in terms of inflation, or will there be more impact coming in the fourth quarter?
Okay. Regarding inflation, I guess that even your opinion will be more valid than mine, right? It's a big unknown of how I mean, not only in Indonesia, right? I get that globally how this is going to move. Again, as I was mentioning before, we have not seen the impact of the current changes or economic changes here in Indonesia. We are very aware that things can be different especially, I mean, next year and in the coming months, right? Again, not very sure about the expectations. I think what is important is that we are able to react if something starts moving or the macro trends move in one direction or another.
That's, I think, what I can mention. Budi, I don't know if you have any other information about inflation.
Yeah. I guess, as David mentioned, right, it is at the end of the day, it's a zero-sum game of economics in Indonesia. Q2, we don't really see much to our numbers. For Q3, depending on the overall global situations. As you know, Fed just increased the rate, and we don't. We expect the interest in Indonesia will also, central bank will have to follow, and then, central bank follow, impacting spending wallet. That's the one that we continue monitoring. In terms of cost structure, obviously the increase on the utilities will impact our OpEx as well. That's the thing where we are seeing that the impact would come for Q3. Right now we continue monitoring closely.
Thank you, Budi . Next question is from Selvi Oktaviani from KB Valbury Sekuritas. Could we share the amount of value on the Link Net profitability that we booked in third quarter?
LinkNet?
Yeah, the portion.
The portion.
The portion.
Oh, yeah. This is because Link Net we own 20%, so it's an equity method. It's not really consolidated. We report based on our 20% ownership portion.
We only book the one after the acquisition part, right?
Yeah.
July to September, only three months.
Yes.
Okay. I hope that answer your question, Selvi. Next question is from Henry Tedja of Mandiri Sekuritas. First, he inquire whether they can get a proportion of data revenue only and digital services revenue only, and do we expect ARPU and data yield, what is expectation in the coming month?
Right. On the breakdown of the revenue, beyond digital services, data and digital service split, this, the way we present it, we don't really give a next level of the breakdown. In terms of ARPU and yield, maybe-
Yeah. Maybe also in the, in the first part, right? The line between data only and digital services is blurring, and it's much more blurred than what it was a few months before. Now I mean, we are not a data selling company. We are a digital services, home digital services, company, right? In that sense, we are moving in that direction. More and more how we bundle the data is with some kind of digital service, et cetera. That's why we have moved towards in this direction, right? Because again, it's very difficult now to start differentiating when we create a bundle, how much we account for data, how much we account for the other, et cetera. It will be a little bit of financial engineering.
That's why we put all together. Now, moving forward, again, I was mentioning before that we are very happy to have entered the 40,000 club in Indonesia. We hope to keep improving in that area. The data yield also, I mean, as I was mentioning before, this quarter we were able to keep it flat. Although we were, honestly, we were expecting to improve it, but there were these two effects of people stretching their data packet and people moving to data packets of lower yield, usually higher price, that traded off for the price increase and kept it flat, right? Again, I go back to the pricing discussion. We are aware that the yield is still low.
We are aware that prices still have room to improve, and we are committed to move prices up. Now, we are also looking at the market, how it's behaving, and we will take the correct action in the correct moment.
Thanks, . Follow-up question from Niko Margaronis of BRI Danareksa Sekuritas. What is the number of subscriber that needs to be upgraded to new SIM cards or to new phone? I think this is referring to the 3G subscribers.
Yeah.
4G subscribers. Second, what is the impact if we do not acquire license in 700 MHz and 3,500 MHz? Third is the range of CapEx for 2023. To what extent that depends on the right to proceed. Niko, I think on the right to proceed, it is very clear that we aim for deleveraging, so it will not be tailoring to the CapEx spending in 2023. The budget will be provided after we close the full year results of 2022. That will be in early next year. Niko, would you like to address the number?
For the first question, I think the amount of subscribers or the subs, yeah, subs that we have that need either using migration or that their device is no longer compatible with our network, we are already below one million, right? I think it's roughly around 500,000 subscribers or more or less in that order of magnitude.
Okay. The second question is on the license one. Yeah.
I guess the answer for this will be similar to any operators. Why 700 MHz is still a very good spectrum is. This is on the lower bandwidth, which actually the advantage with the low bandwidth is that it has a much longer coverage and also can provide a deep penetration in terms of indoor signal. Actually, the other advantage of the 700 MHz is that it can be utilized for 4G and also for 5G. I think for any operator, everyone would like to have the 700 MHz and will be worse off without 700 MHz.
Thank you, Dian. So I have another question, Niko Margaronis. If you have any follow-up, please type in on the Q&A box. Just as a reminder, if you want to ask questions, please put in your full name and also your company name. Otherwise, we will not be able to address it properly. Next question is coming from Sachin Mittal of DBS. Could we discuss a few factors that can impact our EBITDA margins for next year?
I guess the main one is on the potential revenue. Our ability to address the market mainly impacted by the buying power. Dian actually talk about it during the speech. Buying power impacted by potential inflation next year. That's the one that we continue monitoring. Also potential competition getting stiffer next year. David also touched based on that. That one on the revenue side, obviously impact EBITDA. The other thing that we closely monitor, there are two things, right, in terms of Indonesia macro. One is on the exchange rate for USD, IDR/USD. As you know, our CapEx also impacted by USD. If the USD getting stronger, hence our CapEx spending will be impacted. Beside USD that we continue monitoring, also the interest rates.
How aggressive our central bank trying to catch up with the Fed interest. We know this year Fed will be increasing 6x the interest. Central bank is trying to catch up. January at the beginning of the year was 3.75 for Indonesia. Now already 5.7%. That interest will obviously impact our spending next year. The other one that we probably want to mention or watch out is on the network spending. Budi mentioned about 700 MHz impact to the potential OpEx saving, but there are flip side as well on the expense on the 700 MHz spectrum fee that we are going to absorb in the OpEx if we get that 700 MHz next year.
Those are factors that quite major that we continue monitoring for our EBITDA next year.
Thank you, Budi Pramantika. Next question is from Hadi Soegiarto of Jarvis. There's a slight confusion on the question whether-
Mm.
Abhijit will address it. What is the optimal shareholding position of Link Net, that's the group build?
Yes.
There are changes in the balance sheet of Link Net, and we expect there are changes in the shareholding position.
Hadi, I will combine both your questions here. Your key question is, surprises, positive or negative, and operational synergies. In our view, I don't think ownership precludes what you are able to achieve operationally on the ground and extract synergies, right? So long as we are able to drive the revenue synergies that we aim for, and the cost side of the synergies, and create value for our customers and our shareholders in the market, then to be honest, it doesn't really matter, what is the shareholding structure, right? In terms of synergies, as I explained earlier, we have just launched our mobile product in the Link Net base. We are discussing a number of topics.
We have already started sharing poles, looking at the sharing of our backbone of transmission and a number of other items. We have made significant progress on that, and as all of you are aware, given that we are related parties, we have to go through a, let's just say, a bit more complex process, regulatory process, than a normal case, right? I hope that answers your question.
Thank you, Abhijit. Next question is from Piyush. When do we expect spectrum auction of 700 MHz and 3.5 GHz to happen, again? And will there be any delay to spectrum auction?
Based on the information that we received from the government, actually their timeline for auctioning the 700 MHz is due for this year, which is in the near future, all right. What we have seen happening now is that the digital dividend, the movement from analog TV to digital is already happening. It's already executed. That is a good indication that the government will be able to auction a 700 MHz in the near future. For 3.5 GHz, the timeline is next year, probably second half of next year. The follow-up question is in case of delay in spectrum availability, how XL positioned on spectrum capacity. Currently refarming the 3G for the spectrum.
Actually, we are in a very good position in terms of utilization. Our network utilization is in a very decent level. We see that from our current traffic projection. We still be able to cater for the traffic increase for next year and probably even the following year. The question is beyond three years what will be done for us to actually cater for a bigger capacity? We still have the 2G to be refarmed later. Even currently we are using advanced technology for our spectrum management.
mentioned in my opening speech that even at this point, our load is much lower compared to the other operator, but we managed to give the best data service experience. There are still many technologies that we can adopt for that. It is true if, after two or three years, the 3.5 GHz is still not an option. We will need to expand the network by probably adding new sites.
Thank you, Dian. We have another question on the chat box from Arjuna of Taizen Capital. On the financing, what is the timing for the rights issue? What will be like the level of net debt to EBITDA to be post rights issue?
Yeah. The timing, the rights issue should be announced soon, on the pricing for the rights. Closing, though we're expecting, the rights will be locked based on the sale on [CFAS] of thirtieth November. The whole transaction expected to be finished by mid of December. We're looking at fifteenth December as of now. In terms of. Oh, cost of debt. Mainly cost of debt. Yeah. For this year, most of our costs, and also last year was, based on floating interest debt. We've been enjoying the low side of the interest. In terms of, roughly, you probably can look at somewhere between 7%-9%.
Compared to last year, it was higher slightly only. We actually about the same rate in terms of paying the interest. Hope that answers.
Thank you, Budi.
Okay.
Next is from Juliana Lim of Schroders. The reason of the increase debt in 3Q outside of leases. I think that one is-
Oh.
due to the
Yeah, this.
Okay. The increase in debt is because of the bond issuance of the IDR 3 trillion.
Yeah.
I think you need to be more clear on the follow-up questions to
If there's any.
I think that's pretty much everything. We have answered most of the questions. Since we are also coming to the end of the earnings call, I think we will close it here. Budi, if you have any further question, please reach out to me post the conference call. Thank you everyone for your participation in today's call. As always, do get back to us if you have any more feedback. Please stay safe and healthy, and we will speak to you next quarter. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone.