Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Bank of Ireland Group plc Q3 IMS Analyst Call. Please note that the call will be recorded. During today's call, webcast participants will be in listen-only mode while we conduct the question and answer session. If you wish to ask a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Instructions will also follow at the time of Q&A. I would now like to turn the call over to Chief Executive Officer Myles O’Grady. Please go ahead.
Thank you, Olivia, and good morning, and welcome to Bank of Ireland Group plc's Q3 trading update. The group is reporting strong momentum and business performance as we near the end of our current three-year strategy, with growth in Irish loans, deposits, and wealth assets under management, alongside disciplined cost control and high levels of capital generation. Irish loans and everyday banking deposits increased at an annualized rate of 5%, supported by a 41% market share in new mortgages, while flow-to-term evolved in line with our expectations. Wealth assets under management reached a record €58 billion, with net inflows of €1.6 billion, representing 4% of opening AUM. Net interest income modestly exceeded expectations, and we delivered a 5% year-on-year rise in business income, supporting 185 basis points of net organic capital generation and a strong CET1 ratio of 16.2%.
Last week, the group announced a potential increase in its provision relating to UK motor finance to £250 million-350 million, which would impact capital by circa 25 basis points. Costs were in line with guidance, and we are comfortable with asset quality across the group, with the NPL ratio falling 10 basis points to 2.5%. I am reaffirming our positive outlook to 2027, where we target a return on tangible equity of above 17%, supported by expected CAGR for deposits and loans of 3% - 4%, with AUM CAGR of 7% -8 %, and we will maintain costs at around €2 billion. I expect strong momentum into 2026, and we will share our refresh strategy in Q1, setting out the building blocks for growth and capital generation of 250 - 270 basis points in 2026 and 2027, and indeed a range of targets beyond this period.
All of this supports balance sheet expansion, business model investment, progressive dividend per share, and the return of surplus capital to shareholders. I'll now hand back to Olivia and open the call to questions. Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin our Q&A session. If you have a question, we ask that you please use the raise hand function at the bottom of your Zoom screen. Once your name has been announced, please unmute and ask your question. If you want to withdraw your question, please lower your hand using the raise hand function. Thank you, and a moment for the first question, please. The first question is from Sanjena Dadawala at UBS. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. Two, please. The first on NII, the 25 number upgraded to greater than €3.3 billion implies the second half's NII flat on the first half broadly. In that context, how should we think about 26 and 27, where you've said greater than €3.3 and greater than €3.5 billion before? Second, just around asset quality and credit risk, if you could give a color on how that's been trending and any areas to call out, and also around your comfort regarding the U.S. exposure. Thank you.
Thank you, Sanjena. Good morning. Let me take the asset quality question and ask Mark to take the NII evolution. On asset quality, per my opening remarks, we remain comfortable with overall asset quality across the group, very encouraged by the NPL ratio at 2.5%, down 10 basis points, and reaffirming our overall guidance of impairment charge in the region of 30 basis points. When I think about some of the evolving private credit issues that are coming out of the U.S., which I guess is at the heart of your question, Sanjena, the group has no lending exposures to NDMIs. We remain very vigilant to international developments. 70% of our lending is in the Irish economy, which is proven to grow and be resilient. The vast majority of our lending that we do is secured, including our Irish mortgage book.
Sitting here today, very, very comfortable about overall asset quality. Mark, on NII.
Yeah, Sanjena, good morning. Maybe standing back, I'd say the key drivers of our positive NII outlook to 2027 performed very, very well year to date. Our loan deposit growth in Ireland, our structural hedge program, and also the bond purchases that we've executed as well support our confidence in our NII growing to greater than €3.5 billion by 2027. Of course, that's a key contributor to our ROD growing to greater than 17% by 2027 as well. Just on 2025, we have upgraded our guidance to greater than €3.3 billion. That follows the previous upgrade we made at the interims, some momentum there. I think you're right, actually. I think event H2 has been broadly similar now to H1, looking into 2026 and 2027.
Assuming that the ECB remains at 2% and doesn't cut again, which is our assumption now, and also reflecting the deposit momentum, particularly that we've seen this year in our Irish franchise, we expect our NII in 2026 to be in the high three-threes. If I look into 2027, our previous guidance actually of greater than €3.5 billion was based on the 2% ECB assumption, so no change there. I think it's probably the deposit momentum that we see building into 2027, so probably in the mid-three-fives for 2027.
Thank you. Just going to follow up there on the 26 number that you said, so high three-threes, maybe a % higher than what you're expecting, 25 is what I get. I'm just wondering, what are some of the headwinds? I think earlier ECB was at 1.75% in your outlook, and we have 4% - 5% volume growth expectations, benefits from the hedge. What are some of the offsets to that place in the next year?
Yeah, I'd say maybe it's a couple of %. I mean, if H2 this year is similar to H1, I'd say it's a couple of % higher again next year, Sanjena. If you think about the moving parts on that, rates are lower year on year. ECB about 2.25% this year, it'll be 2% next year. BOE also, we assume 3.75% versus 4.25% this year. It's about a €19 million impact from rates. We're obviously deleveraging our GB corporate book as well, so about a €25 million headwind from that. Those are the headwinds. Against that, you've got the bonds, structural hedge program, deposit and loan growth more than offsetting that, actually. They're probably broadly equal contributors to that NII growing next year.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Sanjena.
The next question is from Diarmaid Sheridan at Davy. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Good morning, Myles. Good morning, Mark. Thanks for taking my questions. Two as well, if I may. Maybe, first of all, just following up on maybe the very last comment there, Mark, you talked about deleveraging and maybe just thinking about loan growth more generally. As you look through the next 6, 9, 12 months, at that point, the GB loan book, maybe the U.S. CRE book, they should substantially be done. They start to come out. I guess then you look at the very strong lending growth that you see in Ireland in particular. What is kind of like a maybe a normal kind of loan growth that we should expect for you going forward? You know, is 5% a little bit too high, just given that there are other moving parts in the balance sheet as well?
Secondly, maybe just on capital return, obviously a very strong quarter for capital generation again, and indicating a reasonably good quarter in Q4 as well. Your capital position should be very, very strong at the end of the year. We have great clarity around motor finance. We arguably have great clarity around tariffs. Two of the big uncertainties at this point may be, you know, we've got great clarity if they're not fully finalized. Just in terms of getting back down towards that 14% CET1 or greater than 14% CET1 target, how should we think about finding the timing of achieving that and kind of quantums of kind of distributions with full year and maybe slightly beyond that? Thank you.
Yeah, thank you very much for those questions. On overall loan book growth, I would just refer back to the outlook to 2027 that we shared back in February and which I referenced in my opening remarks. Bank of Ireland Group plc will continue to be a very strongly capital-generative business. A key component of that is both loan book growth and deposit book growth. We're expecting loan book and deposit book growth CAGRs of 3% - 4% out to 2027. At that level, it is very supportive of capital generation. That takes account of a range of items, the ongoing deleveraging of those books that we are progressing with. It also captures a competitive market as well. 3% - 4% growth out over the next number of years will be the outlook that we would see for loan book growth.
On capital returns, you're right, again, that capital generation of 185 basis points year to date, CET1 ratio of 16.2%, very strong. We'll continue to grow into the last quarter. Therefore, as we progress towards the end of our three-year strategy, a distribution strategy will also continue, which is a progressive dividend per share for the full year. Our payout ratio, our policy allows us to operate within a 40%- 60% range. That's particularly helpful in ensuring that our dividend is progressive. With an overall capital position comfortably above, well above our requirement to be above 14%, that offers the opportunity for a share buyback as well. That's the decision that we'll take as the quarter comes to a conclusion. As a reference point, since 2022, Bank of Ireland Group plc has returned €3 billion of distributions, accounting for 26% of our market cap.
We remain as committed as we always are to return capital back to shareholders. Thanks very much, James.
Thank you.
The next question is from Chris Cant at Autonomous. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Hello, can you hear me okay?
Yes, Chris, morning.
Morning, Chris.
Morning. Sorry, having to bother with the mute button. Thanks for taking the questions. I had one key one, I think, on NII. Just trying to read between the lines in terms of what you've said to us on the nine months NII, the slight bump to the 2025 NII guidance. Thinking about that scenario you set out where rates are relatively steady from here, in that world, is 3Q the trough for your NII run rate? Is it just building from this point starting into 4Q and then into next year? Have we hit the trough? I think that's quite a significant point of contention for many investors. If you could speak to that, that would be appreciated.
In terms of the loan growth looking out, the core loan growth in Ireland running at 5%, I understand you've got the UK book running off into 2026, but once that has leveled out, do you expect loan growth to be sequentially increasing as you look out, say, 2027, 2028? Your 3% - 4% commentary was obviously over a planning period where you had a run-off book and I understand you're reiterating that guidance. In terms of the phasing, do you expect that sort of core Irish loan growth strength to be coming through more in the group number as we move further on in time? Thank you.
Yeah. Thank you, Chris. Let me take the loan growth question and work on the NII trough piece after that, please. I think that's broadly right, Chris, on loan book growth.
If you look at how the Irish loan book has performed in the recent reporting period, it's running at a growth of about 5% per annum. The two big building blocks to that are a very strong mortgage book, where that book is continuing to grow, supported by the increased supply of new homes into Ireland, hugely important for that. An increasing size of the mortgage market is going to be hugely supportive of the growth in our book. We have very strong market shares in that as well. We're also seeing a positive growth in our Irish corporate and commercial book. That's also been growing a little bit more modestly this year, I guess, against a geopolitical backdrop, but nonetheless positive in the sense that it is growing.
We assume out to 2027, as part of our outlook, that supports returns above 17%, that loan book and the deposit book growth between 3% and 4%. It could be higher. One of the reasons why we pitch about that level is because we do expect competition to increase in the Irish market. We will compete based on pricing discipline. We will compete based on quality of service and, of course, enhancing our digital capability. That assumption of 3%- 4% acknowledges that competition is going to increase. Mark on NII?
Yeah, on NII, Chris, I would say I'm not going to add a huge amount to you here. 2025 would be the trough year. 2026 would be higher than 2025. Obviously, based on the assumptions that we're setting out today and based on the positive dynamics that we're seeing between quarters, I'd say it's flattish and growing into next year.
Thank you.
Thanks a lot, Chris.
The next question is from Aman Rakkar at Barclays. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Morning, gents. Thanks very much for the chance to ask a question. I actually just had one broad question, please, one for Maya. It was in terms of what new we might expect you guys to kind of come back to the market with in the first quarter of next year. You know, you kind of indicated or signaling that you're going to give us a strategy refresh and an update of the medium-term targets. I guess you've actually signposted quite nicely out to 2027 already. I guess I'm curious as to what new qualitatively we might expect. Are there additional kind of strategic levers that you think you might be able to execute on? Is it a kind of tightening up of some of the existing guidance that you might give us? Thank you so much.
Good morning, Aman, and thank you for that. I guess at the heart of your question, in many ways, is the momentum that we are seeing in our business model beyond the current strategic horizon. That's one of the most important points that I would make on this call this morning. Hence the reason why we were comfortable to offer an outlook to 2027. The work that we're doing at the moment is expected. We work on our strategy. We look forward to bringing that to the market in quarter one. We're certainly thinking about our business model out to 2030. What does that look like? We will share updated targets beyond 2027 when we bring that refresh to the market in quarter one. Thematically, the areas that I think about are: what is, how do we protect and grow our home Irish franchise market?
Two, how do we go after exponential growth in our wealth business? We see against the backdrop of the Irish economy, against the backdrop of the demographic profile in Ireland, we see a real opportunity there. How do we ensure that we offer unrivaled support to our business customers? How do we ensure that our international businesses are complementary and supportive of overall returns? Really importantly, particularly as we go into the longer term, we've talked about having a cost base in the region of €2 billion. Mark and I are particularly focused on how we ensure operating leverage, productivity into the longer term. Of course, making sure that all of that translates into sustainable and strong returns, which in turn supports our distribution strategy and indeed supports investment in our business model and loan book growth.
Thematically, they're the items that we are thinking about, and we certainly look forward to sharing that demo in quarter one.
If you don't mind me asking, thanks very much for that. If you don't mind me asking just a quick follow-up there, then just around, I guess the UK seemingly absent from that list in terms of your assessment of the UK business from here. Has the heavy lifting been done in terms of the reshaping, the deleveraging, the restructuring of that business? Are you kind of pretty happy with that footprint as it stands now?
I think so. I'm sorry. When I referenced our international business being complementary, I did include the UK in that. We are happy with that business. A lot of hard work has gone in in the recent years to get that business working well. It's generating returns that are consistent with overall group returns. That was the ambition. It's a highly competitive market. We know that, but we have a business model that's working there. With what looks like the conclusion and substance of the motor finance issue, that also gives us clarity on the future as well. The UK business is holding its own in the overall group returns, and we're pleased with its progress so far.
Thank you so much.
Thanks a lot.
The next question is from Perlie Mong at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Hello, good morning. Just a couple of follow-ups on loan growth. It looks like the biggest driver is mortgages. I suppose if I look at housing delivery, it seems to be lagging a little in terms of where the government is aiming for. Obviously, the government is spending a lot of money on infrastructure and trying to unlock some of the bottlenecks. In terms of the timing of the loan growth, do you expect mortgages to remain the driver into next year, or would you expect corporate lending to pick up a little bit, maybe benefiting from some of the infrastructure spending from the government? That's number one. Number two on margins. There seems to be some competition both on the deposit side and on the mortgage side.
Some of, especially the new entrants, have been putting out quite attractive deposit offers, and your largest peer have reduced mortgage rates recently as well. How do you see market competition going forward?
Thank you, Perlie, for that question. Firstly, on loan book growth, and in some ways, just reiterating some of my earlier responses. For our Irish franchise, the two most dominant factors that will support growth clearly is the mortgage market. In relation to the housing supply, for sure, plenty of, I guess, political commentary on housing outputs. From my perspective, what I'm encouraged by is the increasing supply of new homes year on year. That's the most important metric that I look at. That is supporting an increase in the overall size of the mortgage market. I mean, it's growing by about 5% per annum. That will be a source of value for Bank of Ireland Group plc. Of course, we're very well positioned with our product offering, particularly in the context of our EcoSaver mortgage, but also the value we offer to customers from our fixed-rate product offering.
You know, 90% plus of our business in mortgage has been in the fixed-rate market, and that's been particularly helpful to managing Bank of Ireland Group plc revenue streams, but also supporting our customers as well. Plenty of noise about housing output. The most important, I think, data point to look at is that the increase in supply is likely to continue this year. Different estimates, some at 34,000 units, but mindful that there is a demand for constantly above 50,000. Certainly, I can say with confidence that it is an absolute priority for the Irish government to ensure that its infrastructure investment, and that it's focusing very carefully on, will continue and will be supportive of broader infrastructure investment that actually also offers an opportunity for lending on the corporate side, but also supports housing supply as well.
On margins, Mark may have specific comments on the evolution of margins over the course of the year. From a competitive position, and what has served Bank of Ireland Group plc well over recent years is maintaining pricing discipline, and to be able to do that whilst also growing both our lending book and our deposit book, that will continue both in the context of discipline and pricing, but supporting our customers with high quality of service and also increasing functionality. I mean, we've got a re-platform mobile app due to be rolled out towards the end of the year and into quarter one. That's one example of how we're enhancing our services to support our Irish customer franchise. Mark.
Yeah, I mean, one, one sort of metric we keep an eye on is the loan asset spread, which is the difference between the rate charged to customers and our funding costs. Certainly, that is something that's trending in a positive direction, supporting that overall positive NII trajectory. If I think about our net interest margin overall, that has performed, let's say, in line with our NII year to date. If we look out again, I'd expect that net interest margin to grow as our NII increases.
Okay, thank you, Pearlie.
Thank you.
The next question is from Sheel Shah at JP Morgan. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Great, thank you. If I look at the deposit growth year to date, particularly in the Irish business, it's running at around 4%. It's slightly slower compared to system trends on an Irish level. Can I get a sense of the competition, maybe following up on the previous question as well, a sense of the competition that you're seeing? Are you seeing some slippage in deposits to maybe some of the fintechs out there? Is that now coming through into numbers maybe earlier than expectations? Secondly, on the wealth business, I think there's an interesting proposition here. I think it's a great avenue for growth going forward. How can you persuade the Irish public who have 85% of the total deposit base sitting in overnight accounts into wealth products? Are there regulatory initiatives? What are you doing on the ground maybe to help drive the flows? Thanks.
Okay, sure. Thank you very much for those questions. On deposits, we're not seeing slippage to fintechs. That's the first response. Overall, we're comfortable with the growth in our deposit book and also comfortable with the flow into term as well, both of those factors offering value captured in our overall performance. I do think, I referenced it earlier, competition is likely to increase. Of course, we will compete on that basis. I know I am repeating my point from earlier, but that's one of the reasons why we assume that deposits could grow between 3% and 4% out over the next number of years, which might be a little bit less than overall system growth, but captures the potential for greater competition. Not just in fintechs, but also in some of the more traditional banks that are operating in the Irish market as well.
On the wealth piece, we know that the business case for growth here is very strong. We saw a 9% growth in overall AUM valuations year to date. That's, I guess, proving the business case so far. We've got two very strong businesses within our wealth division. We have New Ireland Insurance, which is a life and protection business and very much supports, for example, for every 10 mortgages we write, six take on a life product offering. We also know that there's a real opportunity given the demographic backdrop. For example, the permanent population under 25 and also pension auto-enrollment coming in. We notice an opportunity in the corporate pension space to support private workers. On the Davy end, from a high net worth customer perspective, that book continues to perform very strongly. Again, demographically supported with the level of wealth in Ireland increasing.
Probably for the first time on a mass scale, we're seeing intergenerational wealth occurring. Those two businesses continue to perform well. Maybe to the heart of your question, how do we offer these wealth products to a wider customer cohort? There probably is an educational piece here, but we do see an opportunity to take our wealth product offering to our affluent customer base, both within Bank of Ireland and in the general system. Part of that, to do that well, in part is a technology solution, and we're working on that. We do see a real opportunity to grow that business and hence our confidence on setting out an AUM CAGR of 7% - 8% out over the next number of years. Thank you, Sheel.
The next question is from Rob Noble at Deutsche. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Morning. Thanks for taking my questions. I just wanted to ask on the bond portfolio. I see it's increased another €3.5 billion this quarter. I think you said €5 billion-€6 billion for the year, if I'm not mistaken. Is there any change to thinking around that and why it couldn't be more, whether you plan to do more into next year as well? Just operationally, do those bonds form part of the fixed leg of the structural hedge, or are you thinking about that separately?
Very well, Mark, do you want to?
Morning, Rob. I think it continues our conversation from the interim results on the BOM portfolio. Completely separate from the structural hedge, that's the second part of your question. It's over €18 billion now. We've grown from just under €15 billion at the half year. Expect to be around €20 billion or so by the end of the year. We'll probably go a little bit further in the first part of next year. All those bonds are held to collect, so any market changes are insulated from the capital and earnings perspective from that. Held at amortized cost, and they're all LC or eligible.
Great, thank you.
Thanks, Rob.
The next question is from Fatima Ghaznavi at KBW. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. For the first one, I appreciate your comments on the housing budget and the benefit from that on mortgages, but just wondering if you've already included some tailwind from that in your guidance for 2026 and 2027, or whether that will evolve as you start hearing a bit more enthusiasm from your clients around this. Secondly, on the UK corporate book rundown, it looks like you did another £300 million in the third quarter, which is what we thought you would do for the second half. Would we expect you to increase the run rate in the second half of the UK corporate book rundown if you do a similar sort of amount in the fourth quarter? Does this also include U.S. CRE, or is this just the UK corporate book? Thank you very much.
Thank you, Fatima. Good morning. Let me take the loan book infrastructure question and mark that on the run-off, please. Fatima, what we've said out of our outlook and loan book growth of 3% - 4% out over the next number of years, included in that is the continuation of the positive growth in the Irish corporate and commercial book. Certainly, Bank of Ireland Group plc is very well positioned with our team to support infrastructure lending, and that is an area that we do want to participate in. I think if I look at the profile of the government spend on infrastructure, it's likely to gather momentum out into the medium term. Of course, there will be short-term spends as well.
I say that in the context that if it is a medium-term piece, it does represent further growth in our corporate and commercial business out into the medium and longer term. That's an opportunity. We'll always be very disciplined on ensuring that we can generate the right kind of returns in that business. That is an opportunity for us to participate in. Certainly, I look forward to offering more on that when we share our strategy beyond 2027 in quarter one next year. Mark?
Yeah, good morning, Fatima. We've actually split out in the IMS the corporate and commercial exiting portfolio. You'll see that's reduced to €2.4 billion in December 2024 to €1.1 billion in September. What's in there is the corporate GB book and also the U.S. CRE book to your question. If we look in Q3, about €300 million down, some FX pieces there, but the U.S. CRE book alone is down about €100 million in terms of repayments in Q3. If we think about that book, we've spoken about it in previous calls, that's down now by about 50% from when we started deleveraging it. We're ahead of our internal plan on that. We're reducing that within the provision that was set up.
Sorry, maybe finally, Fatima, to add and linking to the question earlier in NII, I mentioned that there's an NII ahead in the next year of €25 million or so in relation to those deleveraging portfolios. Once we get beyond that, that factor falls away in terms of.
Thank you very much.
Thank you, Fatima.
The next question is from Denis McGoldrick at Goodbody. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Good morning, Myles and Mark, and thank you for taking my question. Just one, please, in relation to the Ireland mortgage market share. So 74% year to date, I think implies you were at 43% again in Q3, which would be in line with Q2. Just interested in your thoughts on that. Are you surprised to still be up at that level? Is that a number that we should continue to think about into 2026, please? Thank you.
Good morning, Denis, and thank you for that question. We don't have a mortgage market share target. Our objective is to grow our mortgage book and to do that against a backdrop of maintaining strong pricing discipline and leveraging, back to my comments from earlier, that the most important source of value to the mortgage book in some ways is less about market share and more about the evolution of the mortgage market itself and the fact that that mortgage market is growing, supported by the increase in supply of new homes. From a value creation perspective, I'd say that's the most dominant factor, a growing mortgage market. The outcome of our market share has been consistent since year to date, 41%. Your quarter three is probably about right. Of course, we're very happy to be there to support our customers who want to acquire a mortgage.
We don't have a target market share, but I am highly confident that that mortgage book is going to continue to grow in line with our overall outlook of growing loans by between 3% and 4%. I think it reflects the overall participation, that share, the overall participation in the Irish market today.
The next question is from Seamus Murphy at Carraighill . Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Hi, thanks, thanks guys. I just want to run through some maths if you don't mind, just in terms of the NII for 2024 for next year. I mean, if we're flat year on year and you've told us at the half-year stage that we've got €150 million from the hedge, plus we have 3% - 4% deposit growth at, let's say, 125 basis points margin and loan growth coming through lower margins, but still that's going to give us another, you know, €40 million - €50 million. We have two negatives, obviously. We have the lower UK base rates and we have €25 million digital mentions in the UK deleveraging. I'm really struggling, even adding the €150 million alone and assuming everything else nets out, to get high 3s into 2026.
Is there something really wrong with my maths or what is the other big negative that's coming through into next year? Euribor is actually higher now, 2.1% Euribor relative to where we were in Q2. I'm really struggling to understand how we're getting home to 3.3 high 3s in 2026. The maths just don't seem to add up. Thanks.
Morning, Seamus. Mark, do you want to add the outlook?
Absolutely, Seamus. The moving parts are, as you say, rates lower, both euro, sterling, a bit of dollar there as well. The deleveraging portfolios, the structural hedge, fixed leg, you're right on your maths there. Also, remember that our fixed-rate Irish mortgages are also spot back as well. That would be another factor, which maybe you're not allowing for in your maths. The other factor is the deposit growth, the lending growth, and the bond portfolio are positive. That gets us into that sort of high 3-3s level next year.
Okay, thanks. Thanks, Seamus.
The next question is from Borja Ramirez at Citi. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Hello, good morning. Thank you for taking my questions. I have two, please, on the NII. Firstly, if you could please remind me what was the NII in Q3 and also the expectations for Q4. My second question would be on the US acquisition finance portfolio, which I understand is quite small and you've covered mostly with securitization. You have a very cautious approach on deleveraging. I would like to ask if you plan to run that portfolio down in the future, please.
Okay, good morning, Borja. Thank you for those questions. Let me take the U.S. acquisition book question first of all, and then the NII for Q3 and Q4. Borja, you'll recall that at the half year, we took an innovative impairment charge for a U.S. acquisition book. Much of that was a preemptive assessment of the potential credit risk, i.e., very little actual crystallized losses. I make that point to you because as we work our way through the second half of the year, the team, the U.S. acquisition team, are spending the majority of their time on ensuring that that credit position is managed as well as it possibly can be. That's where the focus is, as you would expect. Therefore, very little deal has been written over the course of this year, certainly since the half year. That is in the context of the broader U.S.
market backdrop and some of those uncertainties. The focus of the team right now is to make sure that we have our arms fully around the credit risk, that we work through those loans, and that we certainly are very mindful of the position we took at the half year and ensure we work our way through that very carefully. That's the focus of the U.S. acquisition team. Mark on.
Yeah. On NII, unfortunately, we don't disclose the actual figures in Q3, but maybe let me try and help you. If you look at our performance in the nine months, a year to date, we're down 7% year on year. That's largely rate driven, offset by the loan deposit growth, structural hedge, and bond portfolio. That performance in the nine months is running ahead of our internal expectations, about 1% ahead of what we expected. That's largely due to that stronger deposit performance in our Irish franchise. If we look at the full year, we had previously expected the ECB would cut to 175 in page two. That would be the longer expect on that base, operating our guidance for the full year for NII to be greater than €3.3 billion now.
I think in answer to one of the earlier questions, that page two NII being broadly similar to page one NII.
Thank you. Very clear.
Thanks, Borja.
The next question is from Jordan Bartlam at Medio banca. Please unmute yourself and begin with your question.
Good morning both. Just one from me on Irish CRE, if I may. It looks like maybe some of the inflection we saw in the Irish CRE market last quarter has gone backwards. When I look at 3Q data, investment in Irish CRE has dropped back down again. Rate expectations are perhaps a little bit higher than we previously thought. Maybe there's also some lagged investment decisions, particularly by multinationals, given what we've seen geopolitically and on the trade uncertainties. I wonder what the situation is like on the ground there. Have you seen any kind of new emerging pressures at the margin there, or is it broadly the same as last quarter on an asset quality front for Irish CRE? Thanks, guys.
Thanks, Jordan. Let me take the broad question, and then I'll ask Mark to comment on asset quality. If we look at the components of Irish CRE and certainly Bank of Ireland Group plc's participation in that, home building is hugely important. From our perspective, we're encouraged by the increasing supply of home building. That's important to us. We have a target to support the supply of up to 30,000 homes and to help the funding of that. We're currently at 25,000. That's an area of business that we feel very comfortable with and confident to support. On the office piece, from a market perspective, my observation would be that much of the developments that are coming online now were commenced pre-COVID.
That's important because if you play that through over the next number of years and you combine that with a greater population coming back to work in offices, that offers a positive outlook on office space in Ireland. Of course, it has to be in the right location. That's totally key. They would be the two big factors that I would call out. On overall asset quality, Mark.
Maybe I can add on that and say, Jordan, just in terms of on the ground, we've spoken previously in calls about caution, good pipelines, not converting. Actually, we've been pretty good Q3 from a CRE lending perspective. Maybe going a little bit counter to some of your talent points. From an overall asset quality perspective, on Irish CRE, I'd say in very good shape. LTVs in that book are below 60%. Borrowers have plenty of skin in the game. I would say that asset quality developments are playing out very much in line with our expectations.
Thanks a lot.
Thanks, Jordan.
If there are no more questions, I will now hand back to Myles O’Grady for closing remarks.
Okay, guys, thank you very much. Thanks for joining our call today and indeed your interest in our quarterly update. Just to reiterate, seeing very strong positive momentum into 2026, bringing together a strong strategy execution and those key equity story points of Bank of Ireland Group plc, a differentiated business model operating in attractive markets. We look forward to seeing you all again as part of our full year results and strategy refresh in quarter one. Thank you very much again.
Thanks, everyone.
This concludes today's call. Thank you, everyone, for joining. You may now disconnect.