Is that it, John?
Yeah.
Cool. From my side, good morning to everyone. Diminishing number of people attending these things. Most of us attend online these days. Particular welcome to my major, the Implats people. Welcome to our first half of the year interim results. What I want to do is I just want to take a step back and just look at the environment in which we are operating and talk about the major forces impacting on metal prices, on our markets. Johan, I don't want to steal your words, but the price determination is not directly correlated to market fundamentals. It's the marginal buyer that buys metal in a market where there's an abundant amount of metal available on surface. It is our experience that you can do these market balances, but there are other factors to consider.
So if you stand back far enough and you look at where the global economy is, it's been characterized by superinflation and therefore high interest rates from reserve banks and central banks, and as a consequence, it has added downward pressure on the global economic growth rate. Even now it is evidenced if you look at the Purchasing Managers' Index, particularly for manufacturing in most of the economies that use our products, you'll see that the PMI is just over 50. If it's below 50, it indicates that there's going to be contraction in the growth rate of that particular economy, and at the moment it's just hovering above 50. So it indicates a fairly low expectation of economic growth rates in those jurisdictions. And when you have this fairly bearish sentiment on global economic growth rate, it tends to have a negative impact on commodities.
So it's not only the PGM market, but we've seen it in other even battery metals that we have seen a downward trend in metal prices. On top of that, we are sitting with elections in 64 countries. Half of the globe's population are going to go through elections. We're sitting with conflicts in Ukraine, Palestine, potentially Taiwan. And so all of these things are creating uncertainty. And therefore, if you are a manufacturer and you consume our products, there's been a trend of destocking. We saw it in the fiberglass environment, even in the autos. I mean, even on the back of, I think, fairly positive automotive sales last year, we have not seen an immediate price response.
I think it would not be wrong of me to say that there's general consensus, not only from Implats but across the market, that we cannot expect a rapid price recovery anytime soon, given the fact that it's so heavily tied to what's happening across the globe with macro factors. So you can see the consequence on the right-hand side with a significant decline in PGM prices. Our basket price declined by 32%, and that's really on the back of particularly palladium, which we've been down by 41%, and rhodium.
In today's presentation, I think what we will find, if you stand back, is a really solid fundamental operating performance across all of the group's operations, bar one, but notwithstanding that performance, and I'm talking about production of ounces as well as cost containment, but notwithstanding, we are going to see that our revenue declined by over 40%, or revenue declined by 25%, and we will see the trend in cash flow. And at the end, we are going to conclude that this is necessitating the company to consider a stronger strategic response, and it cannot be just marginal improvements in productivity and cost optimization at the operations.
So I just want to start off by acknowledging the absolutely catastrophic event that we had at 11 Shaft on the August 27th, and in combination with that, three other incidents that resulted in the loss of 16 lives of our employees. I'll talk about 11 Shaft in a minute, but as a team, we have regrouped around four key themes. One is organizational culture and behavior. And this is not necessarily only across the entire group, but even in specific work teams or sections as specific operations, we need to look at what the team dynamics are and how we operate in order to make sure that we are safe. And part of that is leadership and communication.
So you may have a fantastic position at a particular operation, say Zimplats or Two Rivers, but we need to make sure that we assess our business across all operations and each operation in every section. On top of that, control design, so hazard identification. And once you understand the hazard, we need to review and make sure that we have got a position of strength in the design of controls, such as procedures, designs, safe operating practices. And when you have that, it's not enough. Then you have to make sure that all of your people are educated, that their competence in that area is assured, and then we have to make sure that we understand any changes that may happen.
Changes could be changes in people, changes in working conditions, changes in many things, and we have to make sure that we make sure that competence is assured through all of these changes. These things that I mentioned are particularly learnings that we have taken out of 11 Shaft. Just in terms of where we are with the investigation, I just want to touch a little bit on what we know so far about the incident. I mean, there are current investigations underway, but I can safely communicate that the cause of the incident was not a winding rope failure. It was not the failure of any mechanical safety device in the shaft. It was not a consequence of inadequate maintenance or capital investment. The basic cause of the accident is associated with the failure of the control circuitry that controls the winder.
Just to make sure that you understand that, we have got safety devices on the winder that will prevent overspeed or the conveyance going too far down the shaft or going too high up the shaft. Those are just three, but we've got many of them. At the time of the incident, they had been a trip. The maintenance staff had gone through fault identification and remediation, and based on information available to them, they read a positive health status, which then allowed the man-conveyance winder to be operated, and they then gave an instruction to elevate it to the next level. In there is the deficiency in that the health status was incorrectly recognized by the system. That's really where the basic cause is, but then there could now be many underlying causes that contributed to that.
That would go across a wide number of areas, and it is our intention to do a very thorough investigation to come up with a very conclusive set of causes as well as remedial action, because I think it's important that we use this event as a shining light of how to prevent similar incidents going forward. What I can say is that the shaft has been rehabilitated. We have gone through all of the remedial action. We had the DMR there, and the shaft was put back into commission. It is in the process of ramping up production, and it is expected to reach full production in April.
Just coincidentally, at the time of the incident, we also temporarily suspended the operation of all of the winders in Rustenburg, and we made sure that we went through a full audit to ensure safe operation before we allowed any of our winders to transport any men in any shaft. From an operational point of view, I would like to use this opportunity to recognize the operational leaders in our business. And I'm privileged to have at least one Moses in the room, and Alex and a few people may be joining us online, but I think it has been an amazing achievement to produce 2% (if you exclude Impala Rustenburg) 2% more ounces than what we did in the corresponding period in the previous year. We ended up with 1.902 million ounces. And if I look at why that occurred, you see there's only two areas where we underperformed.
One is the third-party receipts, but that's not an operation. That's as a consequence of the termination or the conclusion of two of our third-party contracts. So it's only Marula at which we had a 12% decline in ounces produced. So all of the other operations produced more efficiently and the higher volumes than last year. When I look at Impala Bafokeng, that looks like a stellar performance, but this is on the back of zero contribution reported. So the 254,000 lbs from Impala Rustenburg is a maiden contribution. So the question is, well, how are they doing? And I think when we had these results at the end of last year, we acknowledged that it's going to take some time to restore Styldrift to full production.
So if I just do a year-on-year comparison of that particular operation, you can see if you look at 6E concentrate, it's more or less on par, so that suggests that we have not actually proceeded with the ramp-up, but at least it's not gone down, so it remains a work in progress. What is positive about the operation is that it's managed a 1% reduction in cash cost, which is really important. So while production has not grown, we have seen a reduction in cash cost per ounce. And while I think the mining is going to take the best part of another 18 months to get to full production, we have seen some positive movements in the recoveries at Mimosa and BMR Impala thanks to fantastic oversight from our group metallurgists.
So we've seen a 2%-3% improvement in recoveries, and that's on the back of more stable operations. We've got better control of the ore mix going into each of these plants, and we have improved on flotation capacity and the reagents that we are using in there, so that's at least positive. So if I look at the ounces refined, that has gone up by 4% compared to last year. And if I include RBPlat's Bafokeng, it has increased by 19%. And then very encouraging operating cost increased by only 3% if I include Bafokeng by 5%. And that's on the back of very stringent cost control by all of our operations. And just by the way, that is in spite of a weakening rand, which always has an inflationary impact on our dollarized operations like Zimplats, Canada, and Mimosa.
So when you convert that to South African rand, it has an upward pressure. So I think that is a fantastic performance. And then our capital, in line with our capital program, increased quite significantly to ZAR 6.8 billion, both without RBPlat and with RBPlat. So if I look at where the big spend is happening, it's essentially in three areas. If you go through this list, you'll see there are three areas talking about processing and refinement in general, so that would be one area. And then there's capitalized development, primarily at Rustenburg and Canada. And then lastly, it's the Bimha Mupani expansion - life of mine extension projects - that's underway at Zimplats. And I'll talk later a little about what we are doing going into the future with capital. If I just get to the business performance, the refined ounces sold increased by 12%.
So you'll see this is lower than what we actually refined, which suggests that there has been a build-up of refined metal in our vaults at our refinery. Revenue went down by 32%, as I explained earlier, and the revenue per ounce, and therefore the revenue—and if I look at cost of sales, that has declined by 2%. And that has resulted in EBITDA of, I think, it's ZAR 8.4 billion. But then if you then look at the cost of the increase in inventory and some other financial wizardry that Meroonisha can talk to more about, inventory translation and negative cash flow of ZAR 4.8 billion. So you can see this downward curve in terms of cash flow of the company. So if you just look at where what cash flows are happening in the group, I just want to start on the right-hand side.
It reflects the cash flow per operation. So Implats IRS, Canada, Marula, they are there or thereabout. Other is just a financial entry from Meroonisha, which is not a big thing. But the two big areas of negative cash flow are Zimplats and Impala Bafokeng. Zimplats is very well understood. And I mean, and I'll talk a little bit about it on the left-hand side, but that's purely as a consequence of the intense capital investment that is currently happening there in the form of the smelter and the Zimplats Bimha extension. So that is finite, and that will come to an end. So Zimplats is not a long-term strategic concern. If you look at Impala Bafokeng, massive negative cash flow. But just to mitigate an interpretation, items two and three are ones of cost.
One, if you go to item number three, it's cost related to the transaction. And just to be clear, it's not cost that Implats incurred, it's cost that Bafokeng incurred. So that's on the share trust, the employee share trust, and shares that vested to management in the process. And then item number two is a peculiar one. In terms of the offtake agreement, payment is made on the last calendar day of the period. But except when that calendar day falls on a public holiday, then the payment is made on the next business day. So in this particular case, the 31st occurred not on a business day, so the actual payment only flowed post the reporting period. So we'll see the benefit of that coming into the new H1. But it's really that number one, which shows the operating cash loss.
This is a new business with long-term potential, so there is a lot of work required in order to convert that into a positive position. I am not going to talk about the left-hand side, but if we can come back to it in Q&A, in the interest of time, I will move on. When you look at this cash flow trend in the company, it is very clear, particularly given the backdrop that I gave about the global economy and the markets, that a strategic response is required. Besides the operational improvements, the cost management, the company has gone and made decisions that will see a ZAR 10 billion reduction in capital investment over the next five years, and that equates to 20%. You can see on the left-hand side, the bars in comparison to the previous guidance that we gave the market in red.
And on the right-hand side, it showcases the breakdown of that ZAR 10 billion, which I'm not going to go through, just to note the two bottom ones on joint ventures, and they are typically - what's the right word? - equity accounted or something. So they typically don't form part of our numbers, so when you look at them, don't add them to the other numbers, and it's just the managed operations at the top that accounts to the 20% saving.
So in addition to the capital investments past year, we also need to change a number of other things. The first is, if you not say operating strategy, but just strategy of the company. First and foremost, our appetite for investment, not only capital - I mean, we have spoken previously about diversification, we're going to do a few things - our appetite for investment in general has contracted significantly.
So whatever aspirations we may have had to grow the company beyond our current base or to diversify, those aspirations have been put on hold. It also extends to investments such as initiating Waterberg. I think that you will find from Implats' position, our appetite for initiating these investments are very, very low at the moment, and we will have to see a very strong price response or price improvement before that changes. In addition to that, there are a number of operations that are going to have to go through a significant change in operating strategy.
Our CEO and his team in Impala Canada have been extremely proactive, and perhaps driven by the fact that they have a single commodity palladium, but they have taken action, they've restructured, they've adopted a higher-grade, shall I say, not a harvesting strategy, but so they have adopted a strategy that will see our assets in Impala Canada operating at a higher cost, at a higher grade. Their operating costs have reduced from $1,300 an lb to $1,050 an lb. They reduced their labour by 21%, and so we hope that that will—they are currently working on plans that will see even a further reduction in operating costs. So I know that there's been quite a lot of concern about the North American palladium operations, and I think Tim and his team have done an exceptional job to give us hope in navigating through this period.
But in addition to that, we are also in the process of evaluating, restructuring at corporate as well as every other single operation in the group on the back of the market that we are facing. And if you look at the right-hand side, even predating restructuring, we have already seen as a consequence of a decision not to re-employ or not to recruit for non-critical positions, we have seen that. We are going to probably, in the absence of any material change, see a drop-off of the production from Impala Canada and 30,000 ounces at Marula. And if you take those days, that amounts to roughly 8% of the production guidance of financial year 2024.
On top of that, and by the way, the decision at Two Rivers is not one that's taken, it's being currently evaluated, so the way to look at this is this is ounces that are potentially at risk. But on top of that, we are looking at previously planned expansion of 210,000 lbs, which may or may not happen. If you put it all together, it equates to roughly 14% of our internally planned production. If I put all of that together and I look at the group guidance relative to what we did, I think, in September, when September, the guidance remains exactly the same, other than one item, and that is the capital expenditure, which you will see third from the bottom. So the guidance reduces from a range from ZAR 12.5 billion-ZAR 13.5 billion. It now has reduced to ZAR 11 billion-ZAR 12 billion.
On that note, I thank you for paying attention. I will now be happy for the team to field questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Nico. I'm going to open the floor for questions to the team now. You can just raise your hand, and the microphone will be handed to you. Please just state your name so people listening in can also hear who's asking or posing the question. And then I will also give the opportunity for the people on Chorus Call and on the webcast; you can type away. I will receive your questions here, and we'll try and answer as many as we can in the 30-odd minutes that remain. So let's start in the room. Who's going to open up?
Okay. Arnold van Graan from Nedbank. Nico, you say you need a strong strategic response, right? Which I think is needed, but if I look at your guidance, we're not really seeing that. So the question is, when are we going to see material movements in your production number? Because I think that's really what's needed, and we're not seeing that coming through. You're taking off answers on the margin, postponing some growth, but don't you think we need a larger and more swift response? And please don't understand me wrong. I know at the end of all of this, there's people and communities that do get impacted. But yeah, looking at this, I'm not seeing that strong response yet. Or is it a case of you are working through this and watch this space? You're going to come back with material changes to that number?
Because in my mind, I think that is what is needed industry-wide. Yeah, that's the first question. And then a second question, and we did touch on some of this in Meroonisha's call. I do see you postponing some of the renewable capital, which I understand from a balance sheet perspective. But from a risk perspective, are you not opening yourself up to big risks going forward, given that you are then still reliant on Eskom, and I think it's ZESA? And relative to many of your peers, whether they are moving off-grid. And this question is asked against the background of, in your previous reporting period, you lost ounces due to, I guess, the lack of flexibility when it comes to smelting capacity and the impact of power availability on that. So let me just ask those two. Thank you.
Thank you, Arnold. So the question of industry discipline, of course, is a long-dated conversation. It's taken us the best part of two years to acquire RBPlat when we were hunting for Impala Canada to goes what? Like, I don't know, a year or a year and a half. So if you look at the investment decision, so the nature of our industry is very particular. It's a long lead time, capital-intensive decision. So the notion of switching on and off based on these variations is decisions with very significant consequences. If we could very quickly decide to put something on care and maintenance or to switch it off and not worry about the long-term implications, it would be a very simple game. So that's the one part. We have to be very specific. And to be quite, so our position is that we will not support loss-making ounces.
But we have to make sure that there is no foreseeable opportunity for that to occur. So if there is a possibility of returning to profitability in the event of a short period of incurring losses—I mean, and I'll take Marula as an example. Marula was operating from 2008 to 2019, probably in a cash negative position. And when it turned into profit, it probably paid itself back 10x over in a period of three years. So we take those decisions with great care. And of course, in a country dominated by employment concerns, we are equally concerned about the social impact on our employees as well as communities. Having said that, what I can assure you is we will not continue for another 10 years in a winter cycle and take no action.
But we do want to make sure that we do so carefully, deliberately, and in a measured way. So I understand the concern, but that's my response. In terms of the renewable energy investment and the comments that we've made about either stopping or deferring it, so first of all, peer groups going off the grid, I'm not sure that that's entirely possible for two reasons. One, we are an industrial consumer of such demand that, I mean, to go off the grid is not entirely possible just from a peer demand. So we also need to look at the demand profile through the 24 hours. So I'm not convinced that any peer can entirely go off the market because, in addition to the generation, you also have to be able to store the power. From our perspective, it is critical from a number of perspectives.
One is to reduce our dependence on Eskom, but also to reduce our carbon footprint to pursue. There are different ways to get to the end point. One is to invest capital in building your own infrastructure, and the other one is to partner with entities through offtake agreements. So I think what we are going to have to do is we are going to have to change our tactics because, as much as we would like to continue developing phase two and ZIM or Marula or 180 kWh cells in a period where you don't have the cash to do that, it just becomes impossible. It's far better for us, and we are sitting with a landlord who has got aspirations of becoming a renewable energy player.
For us, strategically, I think it's far more attractive financially to agree with them for them to develop renewable energy and for us to become a long-term offtaker of that. We are not abandoning our aspiration of increasing the consumption of renewable energy, but the way in which we do it may have to change.
Thank you. That's it.
Chris?
Couldn't.
Now you can go, Leroy.
Thanks, Johan. Nico, you mentioned earlier that the current metal prices are not a fair reflection of the market balances. What are the sort of catalysts that you are looking out for and that we could look out for that would correct that so that they start reflecting the market fundamentals? That's my first question. The second one is, you've done really well in cutting costs at Impala Canada, but it does seem like the goalpost keeps moving. So you've come down to sort of $10.50, and now you're going to try and cut down to $9.50 or in sustaining costs. How do you weigh up the optionality of keeping that operation open and chasing kind of free cash flow neutral versus the benefits of your Zimbabwean and South African operations from higher metal prices if you were to take those assets out of the market?
And also maybe in the context of some of the jobs that are now at risk in South Africa because you're keeping Impala Canada open for the sake of optionality. If you could please talk us through that.
So I will let Johan or Mark contemplate markets and figures when there are some of our team members in the audience. But just in terms of your second question, so firstly, I'm not convinced that Impala Canada has got a major bearing on the palladium price in the greater scheme of things. I mean, I think even if you cut it right now, given the surface stock, given the threat of switching between palladium and platinum, which I suppose has diminished now with the narrowing of the price, given the supply of discounted Russian material, I'm not convinced that stopping Impala Canada will have a major bearing on the sustainability of South Africa and Zimbabwean operations, just to start off with. When we look at Impala Canada, it represents multiple things to us.
One is a potential source of revenue, but also from a strategic point of view, it is geographic distribution. It's entirely based on renewable energy. It is a footprint in North America. So there's a number of other strategic considerations that are of value to the company. And so I'm not sure that, in my own mind, keeping Impala Canada open compromises South Africa and Zimbabwean operations. I think that there are strategic values for the company in making sure that it is represented in all the jurisdictions in which it operates, but to the extent that we are sure that we can do so without having to burn cash in that jurisdiction. So in terms of the market and any potential triggers that we should look out for, anyone would like to volunteer?
Yeah, I think looking at the market, it is our view that pricing is mostly set on economic sentiment right now rather than the fundamentals. So Sifiso can talk to you after the presentation about some of our customers and ordering, and that's healthy. So we're seeing a healthy underlying market, and we're not convinced that if you take 100 or 200 or 300,000 lbs off the market today, that you're going to see any movement. We're also confident that some of that destocking is coming to an end. We're heading into elections in North America. There are early signs that things could turn around. Certainly, an interest rate cycle moderation coming about, even if it's delayed in six months or so, will really reset sentiment.
So all of these things have to be considered in, but I think the primary thing is that I don't think a fundamental 2, 3, 4, 500,000 lbs is going to move the dial. But I think our position is very clear. We do not support loss-making production. And even in Canada, it's two to four years lived, but it could be zero to four depending on what happens to the palladium price tomorrow. We just need to factor in the strategic optionality and the closure cost. And that is something that we look at continuously. But you also have to take note of what the team there have done and the trajectory of travel there. And we need to give them at least a fair chance of getting to $9.50. They've demonstrated excellent response so far.
Thanks, Johan. Thanks, Nico.
Chris?
Morning, Nico, Johan, Meroonisha, Patrick. It's Chris Nicholson from RMB Morgan Stanley. Could we talk about Impala Bafokeng? A few kind of sub-questions here. So I think you've obviously rightly identified it's been a significant source of cash burn in the period. And actually, by quantum, it looks more than Impala Canada. You talk in the release to strategic options to secure value. I know when we chatted six months ago, there were some actions you laid out around concentrator recoveries, quality of mining grades, it's Styldrift. Is there anything additional that you think or levers you can pull there that would have changed from when you first acquired those assets? And then linked to that maybe, could you just chat to the labor situation? So clearly, obviously, you had the sit-in at the end of last year. Change of ownerships can be difficult.
Is there anything limiting your ability to maybe rationalise headcount there in terms of the takeover agreements when you took over the assets or anything else that would impede your ability to extract value?
I must first find out whether I'm permitted to talk about the new options from my team because there's quite a lot of nervousness about talking to that, given the undertakings that we've given the DTI. So I mean, the fact of the matter is the following. So when we acquired the operations, we gave a number of undertakings for very specific reasons. And one of them was that we will keep the operations separate. We've got different pay structures. We've got different union representation. We've got, to be quite honest, a different way of operating and management. And so the definition of success or how to achieve success is quite different. So both the unions, management, and for that matter, Implats, we're very concerned about going aggressively and merging the two entities. So for very important reasons, we gave an undertaking that we would keep them separate.
Then the metal price drops by 40%. So let's say you go through all of the optimization, cost, production, and whatever. And let's say you do internal restructuring. The question is, does that prohibit you from talking about potential integration between the operations and doing so, cutting all of the shared, the duplicate services? And I've tried to find reasons why one cannot talk to it. But surely, if you are faced with the option of having to close something permanently or going and talking to all the stakeholders and engaging on the matter, that at the end of the day, must be an option that is retained by ourselves and the two operations and all of the stakeholders involved. So it is on the table as a potential option going forward. Prior to that, there is the fact that, in my view, we have resourced tail drift.
So BRPM, no particular issue. Efficiently carrying on. But at Styldrift, we have resourced a mine for full production, and they're operating at 70%. Clearly, that is a contributing factor to cost under performance. You're carrying the cost of full production and operating at 70%. So that, given the fact that we are in a negative cash flow, clearly suggests that the restructuring at that operation has to be evaluated. Because I think, as I said before, it's going to be 18 months to two years to get production right. And what amount of cash flow are we happy to tolerate in that period? And the answer is not much. And so I think a fundamental repositioning of Styldrift is entirely required in order to make sure that we don't expose ourselves to the risk of further negative cash flows in that operation.
So I'm not sure if Lee-Ann is dialed in, but I think your question on labor, particularly at Bafokeng, where we had the underground sitting, is a useful question. Perhaps Lee-Ann, if she is available, can just comment on what transpired there and what the current position is within the company with labor.
Lee-Ann, are you online?
Yeah. I am. Can you hear me?
Yes, absolutely.
Coming up here.
Okay. So the industrial action that took place in December and then spilled over into January was illegal industrial action. It was organized by a small group of workers. I think it's important to note that there was no dispute between management and the NUM. So with the transition in terms of the transaction, there were some opportunistic things that happened. We are in the process of working with NUM on this right now. So I don't foresee any problems with it going forward as long as we follow the correct processes and make sure that we go through the consultations. Thanks.
Chris, I mean, I just want to add to that. I mean, that was a huge disappointment. But as Lee-Ann said, it's not a dispute between labor and the company. There were, first of all, misunderstandings in terms of what had been agreed to on transaction, particularly with regards to the employees here on the trust and proceeds from that. And so I would suggest right now, the relationship between the company and its two major unions, AMCU as well as NUM, as far as I am aware, is pretty strong. And even in terms of having to navigate through this price decline and the strategic response, there's a good understanding and constructive collaboration in developing action plans in order to mitigate the possibility of negative cash flow.
I'm not sure that I see that as a strategic risk to the company, as may have been evidenced by the sitting that happened in December.
Thanks. That's very comprehensive.
Thanks, Chris. Any other questions in the room before I go to chorus call? Perhaps people on chorus call can start preparing themselves. Bruce, just get a microphone to you.
Finally, a finance question.
So not an easy one. So at a group level, we raise deferred tax on our subsidiaries that are in different jurisdictions because the undistributed funds are generally repatriated to the holding company at some point. And because there's withholding taxes in the jurisdiction, we've essentially raised deferred tax on it. So in the past, we had a big deferred tax charge where we've basically raised the associated withholding tax that would flow. What has happened in the period is that, looking at the capital investment profile, etc., our estimate of the undistributed profits and what will be repatriated to South Africa has changed. And with that change in estimate, we've reduced the deferred tax that we're carrying. So the ZAR 1.3 billion that you see there is essentially just a change in estimate, but it's a non-cash item.
It's literally just an accounting adjustment that happens on consolidation, which is why when you look at their financial statements and the group, it's different. It's not a tax dispute. It's very particular to deferred tax.
Thank you for that. And then just it might be too early to comment, but you may have seen that the steel market is in a bit of turmoil. Big moves to put tariffs onto a lot of the imports in order to protect metal locally. I mean, do you see potentially any impact on your CapEx programs because what might happen at metal could greatly affect the import side of the steel markets?
Do you want to comment?
So clearly, if there is any increase, that will be passed on to our operations, both capex and opex, because we use a lot of steel in the business itself. I don't know if maybe Moses can help me with a bit more detail because I haven't been following exactly what's happening in the steel.
I mean, maybe what would be helpful, do you know offhand what percentage of your project steel comes from metal?
Not offhand. And I think it is a bit difficult to, well, we do try and diversify our cost base, sorry, our supplier base. But clearly, if that has an impact on the whole industry, then everybody's prices are going to increase, unfortunately.
Okay. Good. Thank you.
Last question from the audience before we go to chorus call. One from Arnold, follow on.
Nico, just on tail drift. So 18 to 24 months to fix that. I'm assuming initially, when you looked at it, that timeline was much smaller. So just from a mining perspective, what's the issue there? What's needed to get it fixed to get to that 100% production? Briefly.
It is a significant list. But to start off with, I mean, I hope I don't bore people talking to the same issues all the time. But you need a factory floor. And the factory floor is not sufficient for the production plant. We always refer to TMMs, but you need the factory floor space. Secondly, when you've got the factory floor space, it must be equipped in a way that supports productive operations. And by that, I mean, if you look at the infrastructural support, the bin distance from the phase, workshop, services, that needs to be in place. And in order to do so, you have to have the right design for your strike conveyors, belts, bins in order to facilitate rapid-forward movements. There are serious issues on that.
Then when you look at the productive capacity of the teams working in the factory floor that has been properly equipped, they must be in a position to achieve the production rates that have been achieved. So if you look at bord and pillar operations and a team typically consisting of two LHDs, productivity varies from +20,000 tons a month at his Implats operation to probably 50,000 tons a month per team at the Two Rivers to barely 10,000 tons per month at our team. So what is contributing to that? The integrity of the fleet. So if you don't have the availability and utilization, then your productivity is going to suffer.
I think we've got issues on both of those, both in terms so in terms of your predictable plant maintenance, the equipment schedule, the facilities in order to do effective breakdown repairs, and plant maintenance, space, stockholding, competence, and education of the entire engineering team combined with a strong operational leader to understand the impact of all of these different things together. So I think, I mean, that's just the start. So then you have to reverse engineer the process back and look at the entire value chain supplying that operation. So you have to look at critical spares or critical supplies, all of the issues you have to look at, the design of shifts to make sure that you've got effective face time. So it's a comprehensive list.
So what we have done is we have agreed a number of key metrics as leading indicators with our team in Rustenburg. So every month at an operation level, but every quarter at a board level, we will be evaluating. So we've identified this is the top key metrics that we are going to drive, and then there are secondary ones. And so we will keep make sure that we drive those very specifically and have a very keen focus on making sure that they improve. An example is if you look at 16 and 20 shaft, I mean, probably for the first six years that I've been part of this operation, we had to talk about 16 and 20 shaft and our disappointment. If you look at the production of Rustenburg in the last six months, I suppose I have to give Moses some credit.
But on top of that, one of the things that they have achieved is they have achieved success with the key metrics that we designed. And I mean, part of the production improvement is, of course, Moses, but then also the fact that 16 and 20 Shaft has finally come to fruition. Not that original design capacity, but they have improved production significantly, and that's why Rustenburg has performed quite well.
All right. I'm going to hand over to Chorus Call to the operator there now to just take the audience through the procedure, and then we'll take some questions from Chorus Call.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, for those on the conference call, if you would like to ask a question, please press star and then one now. The first question we have comes from Adrian Hammond of SBG. Please go ahead, sir.
Hi, good day, Nico. I have three questions for you. Firstly, you mentioned in the commentary that there are further several actions that may be necessary if pricing doesn't recover. Could you expand on that? Secondly, in the trading update earlier this year, you mentioned a 30,000-ounce impact at Rustenburg in 1H and a 30,000-ounce impact in 2H expected. Is that still the case? And can you perhaps give us an indication of how productivity is faring, cognizant of the incident at shaft 11, which I appreciate must have had quite an impact on morale, just how things are doing on the ground there? And then thirdly, the BEE deal that was announced, is that are you in any rush to do that deal, or is that a set date? Thanks.
Thanks, Adrian.
So it's fantastic. It's three questions that between the three of us, we can deal with separately. Melissa, you can start thinking about the BEE deal. And Patrick, you can start thinking about the potential impact in H2 and productivity in Rustenburg unless we can get Moses mic'd up. In terms of further actions, I think we specifically spoke about restructuring that we are now talking about. I've alluded to restructuring the corporate office as well as all the operations. And then in response to, I think, Chris's question, I did highlight that if none of this yields the required effect, there is the further optionality in Rustenburg specifically, given the contiguous nature of those two operations, to consider a next step, which would be how to eliminate some of the duplicate services, protection services, and so forth.
And then ultimately, and this is not things that we have spoken to, but that was asked by Arnold, and that is in the event of failure to achieve success in getting profitability, there is the very difficult but potentially necessary steps, and that is to put on care and maintenance or shut down particular operations if it cannot be operated profitable. So those are strategic options. So let's talk, Patrick, and then Meroonisha.
Yeah. Thanks. Yeah, Nico. So we did highlight that with 11 shaft out, there will be about 30,000 ounces that will be suffered in H2. So lucky enough, we were able to bring 60% back of the production by taking people down 11C shaft. And DMR were very kind to give us the use of the rock winder. So Rustenburg is now about 85% of the BP as we speak now. I believe that now we have 11 shaft back. We should be able to be back to 100% by April. So the 30,000 will probably still remain because that's what we've lost with 11 shaft, not at full capacity. But all other shafts coming back from a crisis break, they are back on budget.
So with respect to the BEE deal, obviously, the negotiations have been ongoing. Part of the deal included that they raise a portion of their purchase price through external funding. So in the background, both the Implats team and the Siyanda team have been working to finalize all of that and obviously agree and make sure the key terms are settled. Once that process is complete, we will make the relevant announcement to the market. Clearly, we've been busy with our half-year in between, so it is taking a little bit longer.
But perhaps just to the point, I think it is important for us to have some urgency. I mean, it was an important part of the transaction to promote transformations through the corporate action. And I mean, it is now quite some time off that. So to answer your question in terms of urgency, I would suggest that it is a fairly important priority for us to get to an endpoint on that transaction as soon as possible.
Thanks, everyone.
Thank you. The next question we have comes from Nkateko Mathonsi from Investec. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, Nico, and team. My first question is on the Zimplats BMR and the deferral of that project. Up to when are you expecting to defer that project? And my key question is actually around your capacity to process Impala Bafokeng metal when or if it becomes available. And by when do you expect that metal to actually become available? Or what I'm asking is, in terms of the contracts that you have with Anglo American Platinum, when is the next renewal period for the processing of that metal? But yeah, my key question is around your capacity to actually process that metal if it was to become available, considering that it has a higher base metal content and also considering that there is the Mimosa project, the Two Rivers, that will actually increase the requirement for base metals refining within your processes.
And then my second question, if you can talk to shaft number 10, 1, and 6 at Impala Rustenburg, which in this half of the year, we saw they reported losses as far as profits are concerned, what needs to be done for those shafts to return to profitability? If you can also talk in line with the life of mine. I think life of mine for shaft number 1, for instance, is very short. So how are you thinking about that considering that they're making losses right now and may not necessarily have a longer life? And then also a question for the end, and in line with, I think, it was Chris that asked the question related to the setting that we saw at Royal Bafokeng.
I think before that, we saw a number of labor unrest, even though it was on the contractor side within Impala Rustenburg. Somehow, it would seem that there are some key underlying issues. Nico, you talked about how you have a good relationship with the union. But considering all the settings and the labor unrest that we've seen with contractors, it would seem that there are underlying issues that we may not quite understand. So if you can talk to what are some of the key issues that cause this unrest every now and then? Thank you.
Ooh, that's a mouthful.
I can start if you want.
I will schedule an appointment with you, Nkateko. Maybe a lunch.
Okay. So Nkateko, I could possibly have missed some of the details because when you said that's question number one, I thought there were quite a few aspects too. But I think you're generally talking to processing capacity and what's happening with BMR, the potential of the offtake from Bafokeng. What does the terms and conditions relate to? We do have our resident specialist metallurgist next to me. Maybe she can, in terms of the dates and times and the terms and conditions. Sifiso Sibiya, you're not mic'd up because you probably would have been the best to answer it. But do you want to have a go? And then Patrick and I can add. And then Patrick, you can talk on Moses' behalf on 10, one, and six, losses, life of mine, what do you see happening there?
And then Lee-Ann can try and shed some light on the underlying issues at particular contracting firms operating at the lease.
So in terms of the offtake agreement with Anglo American Platinum, our right to the 50% of the concentrate, we are able to get that from August 2027. And it is our intention. And we have got capacity to take that on when we have the legal right to do that. I think when you look at, there was a comment about the BMR in Zimbabwe. And if you look at the type of material, the material from Impala Bafokeng, together with the Two Rivers Merensky material, that's not base metal-rich. So that doesn't require much higher the BMR capacity doesn't consume as much. So I think with the plans that we have, we think that even with deferring the BMR, that we will have adequate capacity. I think if you just look back at where our real constraints have been on the smelters.
I think that's why the rebuild of our three smelters and the new furnace at Zimplats has been very strategically important. I think with the BMR being deferred, I still believe that we have adequate processing capacity to manage through this.
Yeah, I can just add, Sifiso, you would see the de bottlenecking and the BMR expansion in Springs is still very much on the cards, close to completion and performing above design capacity. So I think you might find that that little plant is running much better than when you were there.
Okay. I think that touches on processing capacity. Do you want to talk to 10, one, and six? One, 10, six?
Yeah. So I think one and six, as you will remember, that these are marginal shafts with about three-year life. So they have been planned to be marginal in terms of contribution. But because of the six days, we stopped after the 11 shafts incident. That's actually what pushed these two shafts into a red category. So we believe that they will be back, all incident costs to be cash positive. 10 shaft is now second quarter in a row, as we have said that we did not tolerate loss-making. So second quarter in a row, they're under notice. Moses has activated a turnaround plan, so they'll be monitored on a monthly basis. And obviously, the work that we'll be doing in terms of other overhead costs might also help both 1 and 6 and also 10 shaft. But it was actually marginally in the red at 10 shaft.
Moses, anything? Good.
Lee-Ann, you ready to come in on labor and contracting?
Yeah. So the labor environment in South Africa is quite an interesting one. It's fluid, and there are lots of dynamics that one needs to consider. So if I go back to 2021, 2022, when we had some of the industrial action at our Impala Rustenburg operations, it was largely related to contractors' pay. And that was with NUMSA coming in. So when we say that we have a good relationship with organized labor, it's the recognized unions at the respective operations. And we have collective agreements in place with them. But there are always unions who identify issues that they then use as a catalyst to attract membership. And that's what happened in 2021, 2022.
So I don't think that the underlying issues have changed because now, fast forward to 2023, we saw in the gold sector there were some of these wildcat strikes and underground settings at Gold One, Bakubung, as well as Blyvoor. These wildcat strikes have taken on a copycat kind of trend, which then flowed over into Impala Bafokeng, and that underground setting was only at BRPM. Styldrift was unaffected, and so was the concentrator plants. But it wasn't really related to contractors. The issue around the 2023 setting at Impala Bafokeng was around the ESOT. And again, as I said earlier, it was an opportunity by a certain group of people to create some tension in the workplace relating to the ESOTs, and Nico did speak to it.
So if we look at the trends and the direction that this is taking, it is imperative for us to get closer to our recognized unions on issues around contractor pay, terms and conditions of employment, and try to find a way to come up with an employment model that ensures equity in these two different groupings of employment models, but to align the pay. So with regard to that, we are having continuous engagements with the NUM and AMCU on it. And I do think that it will remain an underlying issue until a clear way forward is established on this matter. But will it affect us in terms of restructuring our businesses? Yes, I think many different things will come in.
As long as we follow the correct processes in terms of consultations, engagement, taking into account the social impact of any major labor reductions, and taking the unions with us on the journey through open, honest communication, I think we will be able to forge a positive and constructive path with our key stakeholders as we go about responding to the low-price environment. So I hope that answers your question.
Thanks, Lee-Ann. We will have to conclude there because we've also run out of time. I noticed there are five questions still on the webcast. We will definitely respond to those in writing. We're also going to be traveling and seeing a lot of you on the road very, very shortly, and we'll take up those conversations. Let me just conclude by thanking everybody who's joined us today electronically or in person here. The people that are here, we've got coffee ready on the outside. Please join us, spend some time with the management team. To the extent that we haven't answered your questions, maybe we can continue outside. Then we're looking forward to seeing the rest of you on the road very, very soon. If there's anything else, please don't hesitate to reach out to us, and we'll revert as soon as we can.
Thank you so much to everybody. With that, I'm then concluding today's proceedings. Thank you.