Good afternoon, and thank you for joining the Standard Bank Group pre-close call this afternoon. My name is Sarah Rivett-Carnac, and I'll be managing the call today. As you will all be aware, we issued a voluntary trading update on SENS this morning. The purpose of this call is to cover the highlights of that announcement, and then we will open the line for questions. On the call today, we have Arno Daehnke, the Standard Bank Group Finance Director, and Brooks Mparutsa, Barbara Bell, and Thembelihle Ngema, the client segment CFOs. I will now hand over to Arno. Thank you. Arno, over to you.
Thank you, Sarah, and good afternoon to all. I will start with some brief comments on the recent macroeconomic developments and then turn to the Standard Bank Group trends. Since our nine-month operational update in October 2021, the IMF has upgraded its expectations for GDP growth in 2021 to 3.7% for Sub-Saharan Africa and to 5.2% for South Africa. Global commodity demand and pricing have dipped, but remain favorable for Sub-Saharan Africa and specifically also for South Africa. In contrast, inflation fears, policy uncertainty have caused some volatility in global markets. The pandemic, unfortunately, continues. New strains of COVID-19 will continue to add to market uncertainty and hence volatility. The rollout of the vaccines in Sub-Saharan Africa is behind targets, which poses a risk. In South Africa, in the last month, we have seen peaceful municipal elections.
The Finance Minister presented the 2021 Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement to parliament. The governor of the South African Reserve Bank published the outcome of the Monetary Policy Committee. The Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement highlighted that while fiscal risks remain, the 2021 revenue collection is expected to be significantly better than initially forecast. This positive development would enable the government to reduce debt and fund the additional support provided through the expanded social and economic programs. The Monetary Policy Committee reviewed the outlook and decided to increase interest rates by 25 basis points to 7.5% from 3.5%, which is a five-decade low. Turning to the Standard Bank Group's performance for the 10 months to October 31, 2021. In South Africa, mortgage, vehicle, and asset finance and business disbursements were well above 2020 and 2019 levels.
Personal unsecured lending disbursements have recovered to 2019 levels. In Africa regions, personal loan volumes were also higher period-on-period, driven by a strong recovery across all channels. Investment banking originations supported a recovery in the investment banking loan book balances, offsetting lower foreign currency balances due to the translation impact related to the relatively stronger rand. Investment banking balances closed October 2021 at levels close to those as at the end of 2020. Turning to revenue. Revenues continued to recover, supported by higher average balances, a growing client base, improved sales, and higher activity levels relative to the comparative period. Margins benefited from retail balances growing faster than corporate balances, as well as Africa regions balances growing faster than those in South Africa.
I am pleased to report that in South Africa, we continue to acquire new retail clients at roughly 100,000 clients a month. This has translated into high single-digit growth in South African active clients year to date and should be supportive of fees going forward. In South Africa, customers continue to transact primarily via our digital channels and enjoy the convenience and flexibility of accessing their funds from any ATM at no extra cost and via our expanded range of retail partners. In line with our strategy to digitize, our branch-based cash transaction volumes and related fees continue to decline. Card spend recovered to 2019 levels, while merchant acquiring turnover was well in excess thereof. In African regions, consumer and high net worth digital transaction volumes and business and commercial client transaction volumes were above 2020 and above 2019 levels.
The Business and Commercial client segments recorded particularly strong volume growth in Ghana, Kenya, Lesotho, and Uganda. Trading revenue has been better than expected in recent months. Turning to costs remain well managed. Cost growth was driven by high activity and performance-related costs, including incentives. While we still expect negative jaws for 2021, we expect the jaws to narrow relative to 1H 2021, the first half of 2021. The stronger rand on average period-on-period continued to dampen reported revenue and cost growth. Turning to credit performance, credit performance in the 10 months to the end of October continued to track better than expected. Impairment charges declined period-on-period due to improved collections, higher cures, and forward-looking provisions, together with corporate client releases reported on in August.
The credit loss ratio for the period was within the Group's through-the-cycle range of 70-100 basis points. The active client relief portfolios in both Consumer and High Net Worth and Business and Commercial client portfolios now represent a very small proportion of the respective portfolios. As at the end of October, the Consumer and High Net Worth active client relief portfolio in South Africa equated to ZAR 2 billion, less than 0.5% of the total Consumer and High Net Worth South African client loan portfolio. In Africa regions, the active client relief portfolio also equated to less than 0.5% of the Africa regions Consumer and High Net Worth loan portfolio. The lapsed portfolios continued to perform well with strong payments and ratios.
In the business and commercial client segment, the active client relief portfolio represents 0.1% of the total South African portfolio and approximately 1% of the Africa regions portfolio. With regards to ICBC Standard Bank Plc, the business remained profitable for the period. With regards to Liberty's performance, please refer to Liberty's voluntary operational update announcement released on SENS on the 18th of November, 2021. Turning to capital and liquidity. The group's capital and liquidity levels remained strong. The group's Common Equity Tier 1 ratio was 13.5% as at 30 September 2021. Group return on equity for the period improved relative to the 12.9% reported for the first half of the year. Group guidance for the 12 months to 31 December 2021, as provided in August 2021, remains unchanged.
With regards to the Liberty minority shareholder buyout. As noted in our SENS announcement earlier this morning, the buyout of the Liberty minorities is progressing well. In October, the Liberty preference and ordinary shareholders approved the transactions. With regards to the Liberty preference shareholders, the conditions of the preference share scheme were satisfied. The consideration has been paid, and the Liberty preference shares have been delisted. With regards to the Liberty ordinary shareholders, we are in the process of obtaining the requisite regulatory approvals and still expect to satisfy the conditions and complete the transaction in the first quarter of 2022. In closing, I will comment briefly on the outlook. Recognizing, of course, that there are a number of unknowns. The emergence of a new COVID-19 variant and the threats of a fourth wave in South Africa are concerning.
As we look out to the end of the year and the annual summer holiday period, infection rates are on the rise. This may lead to broader restrictions being reintroduced in some of our countries of operation. The combination of vaccinations and economic necessity are, however, expected to result in the lockdowns being less restrictive than in the previous waves, particularly in South Africa. While these uncertainties may blur the outlook, we remain confident that our diversified client base, broad portfolio of solutions, and geographic footprint position us well to continue to manage risk and find opportunities to partner our clients in their growth journeys. All three of our client segments are showing good underlying momentum, which bodes well for 2022.
In addition, our robust business continuity plans and strong capital position will enable us to continue to support our clients, our employees, and the societies in the countries in which we operate. Lastly, we look forward to sharing our year-end results with you on the eleventh of March, 2022. Thank you. Sarah, back to you.
Thank you very much, Arno. Please can we move to questions? Claudia, over to you. Thank you.
Thank you very much, ma'am. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one on your touchtone phone or on the keypad on your screen. If you decide to withdraw the question, please press star then two to remove yourself from the list. Again, if you would like to ask a questi.on, please press star then one. The first question comes from Stephan Potgieter from UBS. Please go ahead, Stephan.
Good afternoon. Thanks very much for the update. Just a couple of questions from me. Firstly, at half year, I think you mentioned that you might provide a narrower range in terms of earnings outlook. Obviously, earnings will recover here by more than 20%. Is it possible to provide more guidance on that? Just secondly, in terms of net interest income growth for the full year. At half year, net interest income declined by 4% year-on-year. You mentioned in the third quarter update that it was growing mid-single digits, I think for that quarter year-on-year. Would that mean that you would have slight net interest income growth for the full year? Thank you.
Thanks, Stephan. On our full year forecast, we will be providing that update via SENS when we are closer to the time of announcing our results. That will be carried out at that point in time. NII, we are seeing some recovery, and we may be showing a modest growth in NII for the full year.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Mark Du Toit from Oyster Catcher Investments. Please go ahead, Mark.
Hi. Good afternoon. Thank you so much for the update. I wonder if you could just elaborate a bit on what the current demand for credit is like, particularly in the corporate space in South Africa, and then maybe a comment on Africa as well. I mean, you know, is the demand for credit in the corporate space coming back? What are the trends like, and which sectors are you seeing it come back in first?
Brooks, over to you.
Yes. Thank you. Yes. We're certainly seeing an uptick in credit demand in the second half of the year. I must stress that a lot of that, when we talk about the pipeline, as well as origination, some of that will filter down into the early part of 2022 in terms of NII impact and actual drawdowns. We are seeing certainly increasing origination in the second half of the year. The sectors that are quite strong, I think for us, oil and gas has shown good growth. We've seen some recovery in real estate, as well as some recovery in consumer.
We are starting to see those sectors close down in terms of the negative growth that they experienced in the first half of the year. Certainly origination is picking up. With some of the key infrastructure projects that have been announced in South Africa, we're starting to see activity in that space in terms of the power and infrastructure sector. The drawdowns for that will come through, I think, into 2022.
Thanks, Brooks.
Mark, do you have any further questions?
Just to clarify, I mean, was that more overall group kind of statement or is that more South Africa specific? Maybe can you comment in the rest of Africa then?
That was across CIB Group. So both Africa region and in South Africa. Power and infrastructure was particularly strong in South Africa, given the REIPPPP projects that are currently underway and have been approved by the South African government.
Perfect. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, just one final call. If you would like to ask a question, please press star then one. The next question comes from Kevin Harding from Investec. Please go ahead, Kevin.
Hi. Hi, Arno and team. Thanks for taking the time today. Just a couple of questions from my side. Perhaps you could elaborate on what drove the better than expected performance in trading revenue at the half year. Yeah, the general expectation is that would moderate. I guess that's quite a surprise. Perhaps if you could just, you know, talk a little bit to credit performance in terms of retail versus corporate. You've mentioned better cures, good collections. However, still saying that things are turning out better than expected. Really, where do you see the risks sort of emanating as we head into a rising interest rate cycle?
Do you think that a shallow rising interest rate cycle is not going to do much from a credit quality point of view? Thank you.
Yeah. Thanks, Kevin. I'll ask Brooks to talk about trading, Thembelihle to talk about the retail credit performance, and then I may conclude with some closing comments on that. Brooks, over to you, and then Thembelihle .
Thanks, Arno. Thanks, Kevin. In terms of trading performance, trading performance has been particularly strong in South Africa, seeing significant year-on-year growth. If I can just give the full context, I think Africa region had a particularly stellar year in 2020, and that has not been necessarily repeated. But we've seen South Africa come very strong into the second half of the year. Kevin, in terms of the gap that we had in our sort of global markets trading desk, we've seen that negative revenue print that we had at half year narrow in the second half of the year. As I've mentioned, it's largely been led by South Africa.
We've also seen, as you're well aware, greater volatility, and that has resulted in opportunities for us in the second half of the year. That volatility was greater than what was expected, and thereby, you know, our revenue print in as far as that is concerned, has been better than our expectations. We've been able to close the gap that we had at half year more than what we anticipated.
Cool. Thank you.
Okay. Now Thembelihle.
Thanks. From a retail portfolio, we've really seen our clients being quite resilient this year. I think, yeah, we didn't think we'd be at this point if you had asked us that this time last year. I think, you know, the main story is obviously the payment holiday book, which was mentioned earlier. What we've seen there is the book is now less than ZAR 2 billion, and it's mainly in mortgages, in the mortgages portfolio. I think on the overall portfolio, we've really seen just better collection rates coming through. You know, we've seen that consistently throughout this year. I think the portfolio where we had pressure, which was in card, particularly on that payment holiday book, we've really cleaned that out, on this side of the year.
We're quite confident as well that, you know, we have taken the necessary buffers of, you know, interest rates cycles coming starting to rise. You know, we have forward looking on our balance sheet. We are, you know, we do believe that we've got a robust balance sheet, thanks.
Thanks, Thembelihle . Kevin, for your information, we expect another 3x 25 basis point rate hikes next year. Obviously our provisioning and our IFRS 9 modeling as the base case takes it into account. Obviously we also, as you would know, model bull and bear cases and have a provisioning trajectory also based on those. Probability weighted.
Cool. Thanks, Arno. Kevin-
You mentioned, Kevin, corporate credit.
Yes.
That continues to perform strongly.
In terms of watchlist, has that sort of changed in the second half of the year? Any big names or sectors that are worrying you, or is it still largely aviation and construction and I can't remember. There was a third one. Has that changed or is it still fairly consistent versus half year?
Fairly consistent. Brooks, you may wanna give a bit of detail on the watchlist for corporate.
Kevin, I think what we're seeing is actually our watchlist continues to from the point where we were at half year. That continues to get better. I think what we're seeing is some recovery of our client base. I think the ones that you mentioned in the construction industry, we've actually seen some of those cure during the period. Our watchlist continues to reduce. But overall, in terms of sectors, I think we're seeing the overall exposure and overall sector exposure in terms of watchlist come down consistently. Now, you mentioned aviation in particular. I think in as far as aviation, we're seeing some repayments in as far as some of that exposure is concerned. That also continues to reduce.
Perfect. Thank you so much.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from James Starke, from RMB Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead, James.
Hi. Good afternoon, Arno and team. Thanks for the opportunity. Just a couple from my side. Firstly, on NIMs. Can you give us some color around pricing trends that are playing out, both on the asset side, as well as the liability side with regards to funding? The second one is on non-interest revenues, and particularly fees and commissions. I know you mentioned sort of year-on-year recovery, but perhaps if you could give us some color on how the sequential improvement is looking, 2Q 2021 versus 3Q and on to October. Particularly, I mean, are we seeing those 100,000 clients a month come through in that sequential revenue improvement?
Lastly, with regards to your macroeconomic overlays, I mean, given recent events, fourth wave, et cetera, I mean, what is your stance on carrying those over into 2022, particularly given the positive RWA migration we've seen in the last Pillar 3? Thank you.
Great. Yes. Three questions from James. Good to hear from you, James. Maybe on the NIMs side, Thembelihle. And Barbara, actually, if both of you could just talk to your respective portfolios, let's just start on that basis first. Thembelihle, starting with you.
Thanks, Arno. It's on fees, Arno?
Yeah. New trends on both the asset and the liability side, yeah.
Yeah, thanks. From an asset portfolio, we definitely do. You know, we are seeing it recover from where we were from a June perspective. We definitely do see on the deposit side, there is quite you know intense on the long-term side, we do see the competition being quite tough in the market. We yeah we do think that we'll see a better recovery from where we were in June.
Sorry. No material changes from a BCC perspective. Demand has pretty much stayed where it was. We have seen a bit of a slowdown in the asset book growth in South Africa, but Africa regions remains quite robust still, specifically in the west region. We will get a bit of that margin benefit on the back of the mix change. From a deposit perspective, again, no significant changes. Obviously, this recent rate hike will help us a little bit in the last month, but nothing too material. Thank you.
Okay, thanks. Thanks, Barbara. Just in the wholesale funding space, from the funding side, we see continued support of markets for issuances and continue to issue subordinated as well as senior debt into these markets at pricing which is within our sort of pricing parameters. There was a question on fees and commission. So, we've seen continued growth in fees, higher transactional activity compared to 2020, and higher transactional activity compared to 2019, and I think I made that point there. Specifically in card turnover, as well as increased transactional flows. We've seen ATM volumes related to South African clients just started to show a recovery. I think, as I mentioned earlier on, cash transactions continue to decline as we try and de-cash our branches.
Obviously, there's a headwind in terms of fees and commission relative to that then. Yeah, and then obviously the removal of statutory penalty fees in this year to provide more options for customers puts pressure on fee income as well, and you probably heard about that as well yesterday to a similar half year.
Sorry, Arno, if I could just-
Um-
I mean, in terms of the sequential, you know, comparing 3Q versus 2Q, I mean, how's the trend playing out?
Yeah. It's a generally improving trend, James. Backed by more client activity and more clients on our books. You know, as the retail bankers on the call will tell you, it takes time once you get clients on the books to fully entrench them, in other words, to cross-sell to them. You know, that uplift is still gonna be materializing in 2022 and beyond, the full uplift.
Thanks.
Thank you. The next question comes from Charles Russell from SBG Securities. Please go ahead, Charles.
Hi. Good afternoon, Arno and team. Thanks very much for the opportunity. Just one question from my side. Given the improving trends on NII and NIR as well as the well-managed costs, are you willing to commit to positive pre-provision operating cost, profit growth for the second half of the year?
Just give me a moment. For the second half, I don't wanna be too specific, but it will be improving on the first half and, yeah, there's slightly positive number maybe on the cards, yeah.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you. We have no further questions in the queue. Sarah, can I hand back to you before we conclude?
Thank you very much. Thank you very much everybody for joining and for your questions this afternoon. Arno, would you like to make any closing comments before we close today? Thank you.
Thank you everyone for dialing in. Obviously, we look forward to sharing all the detail with you on the eleventh of March, as I indicated earlier. We'll also have further clarity then obviously on the pandemic fourth wave and the implications thereof, which I think it's very early to be specific on that at the moment. That's all from my side. Thank you. Stay safe. As I said, we look forward to seeing you.