Good afternoon. Thank you very much for joining the Standard Bank Group results call this afternoon. My name is Sarah Rivett-Carnac, and I'll be managing the call. The purpose of this call is to provide a little bit more color to the voluntary trading update we issued on SENS this morning. On the call today in the room I have Arno Daehnke, the Group Chief Financial Officer, and we've also got the four CFOs from the four different business units online as well. Arno, I'll now hand over to you. Thank you.
Thank you, Sarah. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us. I will assume that most of you have read the announcement we issued this morning. I can be brief on the call this afternoon. In the comments that follow, where I will refer to the current period, I am referring to the five months to May 31st, 2026, and where I refer to the prior period, it is the five months to May 31st, 2025. Year to date, the global and regional operating environments have been mired by uncertainty. Despite this, the group recorded a resilient performance underpinned by its scale, reach, and diversification. In the current period, earnings growth was underpinned by ongoing franchise momentum, which drove balance sheet and revenue growth alongside a disciplined approach to costs and credit risk.
Moving to the operating environment in the five months to May 31st, 2026. Operating environment has become more complex as geopolitical tensions, higher energy prices, and ongoing trade policy uncertainty weighed on global growth and inflation expectations. In April 2026, the International Monetary Fund increased its global inflation expectations for 2026 from 3.8% to 4.4% and lowered its real GDP growth expectation from 3.3% to 3.1%. Year- to- date in sub-Saharan Africa, while inflation has remained relatively contained across several markets, the outlook has become less benign. The IMF also lowered its 2026 real GDP growth expectations for sub-Saharan Africa slightly from 4.6% to 4.3% growth. The impacts of global developments will filter through to different countries in different ways.
For example, while oil importing countries will be negatively impacted by the higher fuel and related prices, oil exporting countries will benefit. It is also worth noting that we expect the macroeconomic stabilization and reform efforts seen in certain key economies to provide continued positive momentum, most notably in Nigeria, Ghana, and Angola. In South Africa, the domestic backdrop continued to be supported by the ongoing structural reform momentum, an improved fiscal trajectory, and resilience in terms of trade. The constructive backdrop was duly noted by credit rating agencies, resulting in positive adjustments to their ratings and or their outlooks. In May 2026, Moody's upgraded the outlook of the South African sovereign and South African banks to positive from stable. S&P Global affirmed South Africa's credit rating at BB with a positive outlook.
Earlier this month, Fitch upgraded South Africa's rating to BB from BB- with a stable outlook. The upgrades were primarily driven by a combination of improving macro-fiscal credibility and a sustained commitment to structural economic reforms. Consumer confidence showed signs of improvement in the Q1 of the year compared to the last quarter of 2025. However, we expect a deterioration in the Q2 of the year in response to the increase in fuel costs and higher interest rates. In addition, business confidence for the Q2 of the year moderated compared to the Q1 . Standard Bank Research currently expects South Africa's real GDP to grow by 1.3% in 2026, slightly lower than what was expected in March 2026.
In May 2026, inflation increased to 4.5%, up from 4% in April and 3.1% in March. Standard Bank Research expects inflation to average 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.6% expected in March 2026. In May 2026, on the back of inflation risks, the South African Reserve Bank increased the repo rate by 25 basis points to 7%. At this stage, our base case is no further hikes in 2026 and a possible 25 basis point cut in the Q4 of 2026. This is quite different from our expectation in March. Of three 25- basis- point rate cuts in 2026, with one further cut in early 2027. Turning to currencies.
Period on period, the South African rand strengthened against the US dollar and all the African currencies where we operate, except for the Nigerian naira and Zambian kwacha. Moving on to the key business performance drivers, starting with income from the banking business. Net interest income growth was supported by continued good balance sheet growth, driven by strong origination in investment banking and increased disbursements in business and commercial banking, particularly in South Africa. The sectors driving the strong origination in investment banking are energy and infrastructure, diversified industries, telecoms and media, and real estate. The personal and private banking portfolio reported moderate growth as the home loans portfolio continues to grow at low single digits. Pleasingly, current accounts and term deposits reported strong growth in line with the group's transactional client franchise focus.
The growth in NII was partly offset by the negative endowment impact of lower average interest rates period on period, and the ongoing competitive pricing pressures in the home loans portfolio in South Africa. Non-interest income growth was driven by increased client activity and an increased client base, which drove higher transactional activity period on period. Net fee and commission income growth was underpinned by a strong performance in personal and private banking in South Africa, supported by strong growth in value-added services revenue and higher fee income generated in transactional banking from increased trade activity in Africa regions. Trading revenue growth was supported by periods of elevated market volatility and market-making opportunities, particularly in the Q1 of the year. Turning to costs. The group continues to maintain rigorous cost discipline while absorbing increased business activity related costs.
We continue to invest in growing the client franchise while improving operational efficiency and optimizing our physical infrastructure. Costs growth was broadly in line with revenue growth period on period. Moving to credit trends. Credit impairment charges were lower period on period. This is, however, still expected to revert to year-on-year growth as the year progresses as a result of new business strain linked to loan growth and higher charges in the second half of the year relative to the low base in the second half of 2025. Corporate and investment banking credit impairment charges were lower period on period, driven by post-write-off recoveries in the non-performing loans portfolio. Business and commercial banking credit impairment charges were also lower period on period due to the non-recurrence of stage 3 provisions raised in the prior period.
Personal and private banking credit impairment charges were higher period on period due to an increase in forward-looking provisions in response to the deteriorating macroeconomic outlook, particularly in South Africa and South and Central Africa. This was partly offset by ongoing and successful early-stage collections and restructuring efforts, which reduced inflows into non-performing loans. Lower credit impairment charges combined with a growing balance sheet resulted in a lower credit loss ratio period on period. The credit loss ratio for the period was around the midpoint of the group's through-the-cycle range of 70-100 basis points. Turning to the insurance and asset management business. The strong earnings growth momentum I&AM reported in 2025 has continued into 2026.
This was supported by improved life risk experience, continued good persistency levels, and good growth in assets under management in South Africa and Nigeria period on period. On ICBCS. ICBCS continued to contribute positively to the group's earnings growth. Earnings growth in ICBCS was supported by improved trading profits from precious metals. Considering earnings and capital. As expected, the group's earnings growth for the five months moderated relative to the strong 12% recorded in the Q1 of this year. The Africa regions portfolio continued to benefit from its diversity.
A softer performance in the South and Central region was more than offset by growth in the West and East Africa portfolios. The ongoing growth in the South African franchise was underpinned by continued positive momentum in the business and competitive client offerings. The group remains well capitalized and liquid, with a common equity Tier 1 ratio of 13.2% as of March 31st, 2026. Turning to the outlook for 2026.
There is no doubt that the uncertainty brought about by the Middle East conflict and the subsequent inflation and related monetary policy actions have temporarily weighed on our clients' confidence to transact, invest, and borrow. More recently, the US-Iran agreement to extend the ceasefire and open the Strait of Hormuz, and the subsequent decline in oil prices are positive developments. Assuming this holds, we would expect confidence and momentum to return in the second half of the year. At this stage, the group's guidance for the year ended December 31st, 2026, as provided in March this year, remains unchanged. As a reminder, for the full year to December 31st, 2026, the group expects the following. Banking revenue growth of mid to high single digits in ZAR. Banking cost to income ratio to decline slightly.
Credit loss ratio to increase, but remain in the bottom half of the through the cycle target range of 70 to 100 basis points. Group return on equity to increase relative to the 19.3% reported in 2025. This guidance will be reviewed as part of the interim results process. The group will report its financial results for the six months to June 30th, 2026 on Thursday August 13th, 2026. Thank you. Sarah, I will now hand back to you for questions.
Thanks, Arno. We'll now go to questions, and if we can ask you to use the raise the hand function, and then we will go through the hands as they come up. The first hand is from Harry. Harry Botha, please go ahead.
Hi, Arno, Sarah, and team. Thanks very much. Maybe two questions for you. Just like to get a sense whether we should expect any material seasonality between the first half of the year and the full year. In terms of the Q2 trends that you're seeing, do you have any insights to share on whether the uncertainty has impacted the earnings that you've reported up to the five months mark? Or whether you just, I guess, been cautious about the impact that it might have in the Q2 of the year.
Thanks, Harry. On the seasonality point, you would be aware that in the first half, typically, we have a higher impairment charge compared to the second half. We'll see that playing out. On the uncertainty impact, retail credit extension has been slightly lower than anticipated originally. CIB has continued to have very strong origination, particularly in investment banking. Overall, our portfolio is tracking to plan, as a consequence, we could then reaffirm our guidance. I would say at this stage, the impact has not been that marked.
Thank you.
Thanks. The next hand, James Starke. James, please go ahead. Thanks.
Hi. Good afternoon, Arno. Thanks for the opportunity. Two questions from me. The first is just regarding the revenue growth and cost growth. You commented that costs tracked revenue growth. It's suggesting flat cost to income ratio for the period, yet you're reiterating an improvement in the cost to income ratio in your FY 2026 guidance. If you could perhaps just highlight any sort of anomalies that may be distorting the trend in the five months, and why we're not perhaps seeing an improvement yet. The second question just relates to your costs, your credit loss ratio guidance, the midpoint of the 70 to 100 basis point range. Is that just relative to customer loans?
If you could just comment on the sovereign related charges. I know in the past you've reported them separately. Is there anything that we should be aware of there in either direction, increases or provision reversals? Thank you.
Thank you, James. At the moment, we've got roughly around flat jaws. We expect slightly positive jaws for the full year. There's nothing extraordinary coming out of that. It's diligent cost management relative to our revenue base as we've done for the last five years. A reminder, we've had positive jaws for five years in a row now, and we certainly intend keeping that trend. We do have certain cost levers, which we are actioning in light of the slightly worse than expected macro environment. That will allow us to manage our costs actively to maintain those slightly positive jaws. On credit charges, we expect it to be around the middle, if not slightly below the middle of the range. Last year, I do remind you, we've had fairly low charges on loans in the second half of the year.
We also had releases of forward-looking provisions in the second half of the year, particularly in our retail portfolio. Whereas in the first half of 2026, we had an overlay to recognize the deteriorating global macroeconomic conditions, that was a credit overlay, and that charge was taken in the Q1 of this year. It is in our P&L. On sovereign, you're right, James. We did take provisions last year, specifically on Mozambique, which we disclosed to the market. We also had some concerns about Malawi. We do not expect a repeat of those provisions. As we stand at the moment, we are well and comfortably provided for both of those markets. As things stand at the moment, I don't expect any further sovereign provision requirements for this particular year.
Potential for release?
I think a bit too early to recognize a release. We'll update the market if we get to that point. Right now, that would be a bit early to promise anything to the market in that respect.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thanks. Next hand is Ross Krige. Ross, please go ahead.
Thanks, Arno. Just a few questions from me. Just on the comments on the temporary downturn in client confidence. Just wondering, are there specific business clients or geographical segments that you're referring to there? Or is it more of a general comment? Then just from the NIM side, has the performance been in line with expectations? I understand you're reassessing guidance, so can we take prior guidance as still in place for the full year?
On the downturn, the consumer, as you would have seen from the BA information as well, Ross, the consumer loans advances growth has been somewhat subdued. I think the industry is tracking in the low single digits. We are tracking slightly below that on the back of the mortgage portfolio growing quite slowly at this point in time. We commented on that already in March, that the pricing we find is particularly aggressive. We are tracking behind the market in the mortgages, which I'm quite comfortable seeing we are still writing 25% of the mortgage market in South Africa. The other products, we are comfortably tracking with or ahead of the market, and that includes, for example, the vehicle asset finance business.
On NIM, we did guide the market a slight compression on NIM on the back of declining interest rates year-on-year, that is tracking still as to expectation, we are expecting NIM to be slightly reduced compared to FY 2025.
Thanks.
Thanks, Ross. Next hand, Baron Nkomo, JP Morgan. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, guys. Two questions from me as well. Firstly, can you comment on the loan growth split between SA and the rest of Africa? Secondly, just on home loans pricing, how intense is pricing competition at the moment? What's the margin versus volume trade-off you're willing to accept through 2026 on this? Thanks.
Thank you, Baron. On the home loans question, I will ask Sayuri to respond on that. On Africa regions, total credit extension in South Africa, as you would have seen for the industry, is 8.8%, and for FBSA is 10.1%. I'm comparing April 2026 to April 2025. We are growing slightly faster than industry in South Africa. In particular, we've had very strong origination in investment banking. Our commercial loans advances are growing at 17.7%. The industry is growing at 12.3%. Loan growth in Africa regions is in the low teens at present. In the low teens. Not too far off what we've seen in South Africa. I mentioned already on household loan extension in South Africa, slightly more subdued and faster in CIB.
Sayuri, on the pricing pressures and concession rates on the mortgage portfolio, over to you, please.
Thank you, Arno. Thank you, Baron, for the question. We continue to see pricing pressure in our home loans portfolio. The concession rates have still been in the range that we landed at the end of last year and slightly worsened. What we have seen in the last few months is that it seems to have stabilized a bit. We are seeing some stability in terms of that concession rate closer to the 70 basis points less mark. We are still seeing that pricing pressure. We continue to focus on profitability and ROE, as Arno mentioned.
In terms of the trade-off, we are quite comfortable that some of the market share on the back of that may reduce while we keep profitability levels and ROE at the higher end. We are still seeing strong disbursement growth coming through in home loans. As you know, that repayment rate is high, that low single-digit balance growth continues to come through, as Arno has alluded to as well. Thank you.
Thanks, Sayuri. Next hand, Charles. Charles Russell, please go ahead.
Good afternoon, Arno and Sarah. Thanks again for the opportunity. I'm very brief. I can just ask one question. Regarding the change in the rates trajectory pre-war versus now, how asymmetric is that impact on lower NIM compression versus higher credit costs? Is that pretty much in parity at this stage? Does that make sense?
Yeah. I understand. Clearly, we had expected a slightly bigger endowment impact than is now materializing, particularly because of South Africa's 25 basis point rate hike, as opposed to three times 25 basis point rate cuts. Bearing in mind, Charles, that we have hedged a large portion of that risk in South Africa. We do see continued rate cuts in many of the other Africa regions, that does continue to feed through as endowment headwinds. We'd prefer rates to be lower and client confidence to be higher and growth to be quicker, and overall, that would benefit the portfolio. This is not a complete offset. The rate hikes will not completely compensate for the reduction in confidence and credit extension, particularly in the retail space. We'd prefer, as I said, for rates continue to be cut and the economy to be stimulated by monetary policy.
Thank you very much.
Thanks. Harry, I see you've got your hand up. Back to you.
Yeah, thank you. Just in terms of the currency impact in the first half, how different is constant currency earnings growth versus reported? Then maybe in PPB, is there any evidence starting to emerge of the improved insurance cross-selling as yet?
Yeah. On currency, when we guided in March, we said the currency impact would be quite low. The currency impact has proven to be slightly larger than we had anticipated, particularly on the back of the very strong rand. That seems to be persisting at the moment. The currency impact is more pronounced as we see it. Particularly, Harry, we're seeing some of the East African currencies relative to the rand, to put pressure on our currency translation impacts East Africa. Whereas some of the other currencies have proven to be quite resilient, particularly in West Africa.
Sorry, Harry, did you have a second part to your question?
Oh, yes.
There was a question on retail, right?
Yes. Just the insurance.
The insurance cross-sell. Yeah. We continue to make good progress, as we've previously reported on that. Sayuri, I see you've jumped onto the screen. Do you wanna comment anything on the progress we're making there?
Yeah. Thanks, Arno. Thanks, Harry, for the question. Yeah, we continue to see strong growth in our funeral products, so on Flexi Funeral and on Flexi Life, that GWP growth still coming through. The collaboration efforts are in fact giving us positive outcomes. Of course, we've got a long-term journey there as well. Yeah, we are looking at quite positive outcomes from the collaboration efforts. Thank you.
Thanks very much. Going back to Ross. Please go ahead, Ross.
Thank you. Just on the trading revenue, you called out for Q1 having been supported from volatility. Is it fair to say then that that volatility slowed, I guess, as the war persisted? That's question or part 1, and then part 2 is, since the announcement of the truce, I realize it's early days, but has there been any return in trading volumes?
Since the announcement when?
Announcement this time.
Oh, in the last few days. Yeah, that's probably a bit too early to comment on that, Ross. The trading revenue has performed well, particularly year-on-year in the Q1 . Bearing in mind that in the second and remaining quarters of the year, we had a high base of our trading revenue. At the moment, we've continued to grow well off even that high base. Trading performance has been pleasing across our different trading markets.
Understood. Thanks, Arno.
All right. Great. I can't see any more hands. Thank you very much, everyone, for taking the time, for joining the call, and for your questions. If you do have anything else that we haven't covered, please do reach out to myself or the Investor Relations team. There will be a copy or a recording of this call available on our website within a few hours. Again, if you're looking for that, please do reach out for us and we can provide you with the link. Thanks very much for your time.
Thank you all. I appreciate it. Thank you