Good day to you, our stakeholders. I am delighted that you joined us for Sasol's Capital Markets Day. Today, Sasol's executive management team, led by CEO Fleetwood Grobler, will unpack the group's updated strategy. Leading up to this event, I am very pleased that under Fleetwood's leadership, Team Sasol met all short-term targets for the past financial year and exceeded expectations on several of them. This has resulted in a deleveraged balance sheet, averting the need for a rights issue. The company's stellar performance over the past year has placed Sasol on a much stronger footing to tackle our future challenges and opportunities with greater confidence. With a fundamentally reset balance sheet, new operating model, and focus portfolio of assets to drive value creation, we have a robust foundation in place to deliver future Sasol.
As chairman of the board, I reaffirm our commitment to ensure value creation for all our stakeholders well into the future. I believe that what we will share with you today demonstrates that we have a credible pathway to realize future Sasol, a competitive, relevant, and above all, greener company. In the past 18 months, we have proven our resilience and commitment to deliver on our promises. This bodes well for what we can achieve going forward. I have full confidence in the management team's ability to deliver on the strategy. In addition to putting forward a compelling investment proposition today, you will see that central to future Sasol are our concrete plans to accelerate the decarbonization of our business. Collectively, these key aspects of our strategy underpin our ambition to grow shared value while accelerating our transition.
Thank you once again for joining us at our Capital Markets Day. I now hand you over to Fleetwood and his executive management team, who will host you for the remainder of today's proceedings. Thank you. Have a great day further.
Thank you for that message of support from the board, Sipho. Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to our 2021 Capital Markets Day. Around five weeks ago, when we announced our results for financial year 2021, I described the reporting period as a watershed year for Sasol, owing to our strong overall business and operational performance. In meeting all and even exceeding some of our short-term targets, along with notable early wins in our Sasol 2.0 transformation program, we have managed to strengthen our balance sheet, giving ourselves more financial headroom going forward. We now have a much stronger foundation and can start to shift focus to the longer term. Today, we are delighted to share our vision for future Sasol in 2050 and our plans to get there. First, our future ambition is to be at net zero emissions by 2050.
We are committed to accelerating our transition to a low-carbon world in support of the objectives of the Paris Agreement. In aligning with this 2050 ambition, we are stepping up our 2030 Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from an initial 10% for our South African operations announced last year to 30% for our energy and chemicals businesses off a 2017 baseline. We are also introducing a Scope 3 reduction target for our energy business off a 2019 baseline. This is consistent with our peers and what they have committed to. Against this ambition, a natural question to ask is what impact this transition will have on the financials of the business. Our plans to 2030 will leverage known solutions and technologies and can be delivered with optimal capital investments.
We expect to continue delivering a competitive and sustainable returns above our cost of capital as we progress on this journey. Our Sasol 2.0 transformation programme, which is already well underway, aims to unleash the full potential of our business through enhanced customer centricity, operational excellence, and innovation. This will enable our assets to be highly cash generative, providing the financial headroom to self-fund our strategy, restore dividends, and fund investments in growth focused on low-carbon prospects. I am confident that the energy transition will offer unique opportunities for Sasol. Opportunities to grow, to generate additional sources of revenue, and to make the company relevant for the future. We will need to reinvent ourselves, and as we do, we will not lose sight of what has made us successful: our ability to innovate, lead in challenging times, and bring relevant solutions to the market.
Our proprietary Fischer-Tropsch technology, in particular, is well-suited to play a meaningful role in a low-carbon future with attractive, new and emerging value pools. Of course, it all starts with our customers. We will continue to place customers at the center of all we do, ensuring we deliver a best-in-class customer experience and invest in building leadership where it matters, leveraging our unique competitive advantages to enable differentiated value proposition. As a global society, we cannot maintain the planet's ecosystems or continue to function as we currently do if we do not make more sustainable choices. Sustainability is the defining topic of the current period. In recent years, there has been a clear step up in regulatory and financial pressures and a significant increase in capital influx towards sustainable technologies.
Climate change is one of the biggest challenges of our time. The world is in a race against the clock to reach global net zero by the second half of the century. While the trajectory and urgency is clear, the pace and the economics of this transition remain uncertain and will depend on factors difficult to predict. In particular, enabling technology breakthroughs and the global community's ability to cooperate to set consistent and effective policy and regulations. We are fully cognizant of this reality. As such, our strategy is built on a dual approach to, one, preserve shareholder value from our current business while we decarbonize and transition to lower carbon feedstocks, thus ensuring our existing assets are future-proofed. Two, unlock new opportunities we need to reinvent ourselves over time, investing in new sustainable businesses and accessing attractive future value pools.
Here, we will focus on opportunities where we are advantaged and can rapidly establish leadership economics, building on our unique strengths. Given the uncertainties, our strategy is also adaptable and can respond to changes in our external environment and customer needs. In particular, we have developed a set of plausible scenarios for how fast the industry shift could take place. We are also carefully monitoring signposts as these could trigger different strategic choices along our journey. There is no question that the energy transition is going to be disruptive. Fossil fuels will progressively scale down and new sustainable value pools will emerge, with the pace of change likely to differ across geographies. We have the benefit at Sasol of having a relatively resilient core business.
Our liquids fuel business in Southern Africa, which will incrementally decline over time as alternative vehicle technologies ramp up, is still robust to 2030 and for some years thereafter. For chemicals, demand continues to grow at a faster pace globally, and our products are well-suited to benefit from a drive for more sustainable solutions. At the same time, growing emerging markets will present opportunities for Sasol. According to the IEA, a net zero scenario by 2050 would mean that the global energy sector will be based largely on renewables. The majority of cars will be running on electricity or fuel cells, planes will be relying on advanced biofuels or synthetic fuels, and industrial plants will be using carbon capture and green hydrogen. Our differentiated technology, existing assets, and unique capabilities positions us well to participate in aspects of this green economy.
Renewables will play a meaningful role in the decarbonization of our assets. Our experience with grey hydrogen gives us credibility to lead the development of green hydrogen in Southern Africa. Our FT technology opens up interesting opportunities for us to produce and market sustainable fuels for the aviation industry and beyond. Finally, our track record in successfully developing, operating, and managing complex integrated value chains presents freedom for us to play an integrated role across some of these segments. We are embracing the energy transition as an opportunity and are committed to accelerate this transition to a decarbonized future for Sasol. As mentioned before, we have a clear ambition for net zero emissions by 2050 and multiple viable pathways to get to that point. Net zero includes our Scope 1, 2, and Scope 3 Category 11 emissions for energy and Scope 1 and 2 emissions for chemicals.
We are busy with a Scope 3 Category 12 baseline for chemicals, and once completed, we will assess how best to address these emissions. This is not just a future-focused commitment. We are taking action now with important choices being taken today that enables us to progress this ambition at pace. Finally, we are confident in our ability to deliver on this promise owing to the strong potential of our Fischer-Tropsch technology, which is well-suited for the sustainability challenge ahead of us. We are tripling our 2030 Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emission reduction target to 30% for energy and chemicals. Based on detailed assessments and modeling, this ambitious target can be delivered without divestments and offsets, but through the direct decarbonization of our existing assets.
This will be done through a mix of energy and process efficiencies, investments in renewables, a shift to incremental natural gas as a transition feedstock for our South African value chain. These solutions are well-known and mostly under our control. The investments required are cost-effective, preserving strong returns in our business above the cost of capital. Beyond 2030, we have more than one viable pathway to get to net zero ambition by 2050, with different options to transform Southern Africa value chain progressively shifting our feedstock away from coal towards more transition gas and then green hydrogen and sustainable carbon over the longer term as their economics improve. In an uncertain future, this approach offers agility and enables us to pivot as cost-effective mitigation levers become available. We are also avoiding infrastructure lock-in and regret capital spend.
In particular, we expect to see a rapid evolution of the cost of green hydrogen and Direct Air Capture of CO2 in the next few decades as renewables and electrolysis come down the cost curve. While we do not expect that we will need offsets to deliver on our 2030 targets, we are starting to build capabilities in this space and to develop projects as an additional lever to support our 2050 net zero ambition. Let me share more details on our GHG emissions reduction targets and ambition. Our Scope 1 and 2 emissions are a bigger challenge, specifically for our Southern Africa value chain, where the largest portion of our greenhouse gas emissions are concentrated. Our 30% reduction target for 2030 for our energy business, however, applies to both energy and chemicals value chains in Southern Africa.
We have concrete plans to directly reduce emissions by around 25% through known and available technologies. With additional improvements in technology, efficiencies in our process, and the introduction of lower carbon feedstocks, we are confident that more reductions are possible to achieve the full 30% target. We are also introducing an energy business Scope 3 target focused on Category 11 for the use of our sold products, where we are aiming for a 20% reduction in absolute emissions by 2030 of the 2019 baseline. Up to 2030, approximately 10%-15% of our capital will be spent on achieving these GHG reduction targets, and post 2030, a more significant portion of our capital to achieve our net zero ambition. In line with best practice, our executive compensation is linked to interim targets to deliver our 2030 targets across the business.
The energy transition is going to disrupt our industry, shift value pools, and impact the job market, requiring diverse skills and capabilities in different geographies. It is critical that we anticipate and mitigate this change, both within Sasol and at a country level, to ensure a just transition. Our diversity and inclusion agenda remains a key imperative, which we will progress in parallel. We need to protect and foster employment in the countries where we operate by accelerating the development of new energy markets to compensate for the erosion of the fossil fuels over time. South Africa has fantastic potential for renewables and low-cost green hydrogen production, which positions us well for export opportunities.
We also have important platinum group metal resources that are a core input in the production of catalysts and fuel cells. We will be working with industry stakeholders and the government to establish national plans to develop opportunities and ensure we can localize as much as possible, creating new jobs and economic wealth in South Africa. While the workforce impact is likely to be largely after 2030, this needs to be anticipated now with the right long-term human capital plans, managing a natural transition of the workforce involved in fossil fuels and investing in reskilling for the needs of a low-carbon economy in future. We are committed to a just transition. We will continue to actively engage and partner with our local communities and various stakeholders in Southern Africa to support these objectives, including the IDC and the regulator.
We are also committed to measure and regularly report on progress and are setting up a dedicated just transition office at Sasol. Now that I've framed our ambition, let me spend a bit more time on how we are going to deliver on this across the businesses. As you know, last year, we reorganized our structure around two core businesses of energy and chemicals. Today, we are introducing a third business to lead the development of the sustainable solutions leveraging our FT technology. This will be called Sasol ecoFT. Let me briefly unpack the high-level strategic priorities across these three business units and highlight the key themes across the group. Our energy business aims to lead the energy transition in Southern Africa.
With the delivery of our Sasol 2.0 transformation, we are bringing our cash breakeven oil price below $35 /bbl , which will make our assets highly cash generative in the current market context. Our FT technology, at the heart of our Southern Africa value chain, positions us well to decarbonize through lower carbon feedstocks and to ramp up the production of cost-competitive, sustainable fuels and chemicals. Cost-affordable green hydrogen will be a key enabler, and given our experience as a large-scale gray hydrogen producer and consumer today, we intend playing a leading role in the development of green hydrogen in Southern Africa. Chemicals is focused on growing with our unique chemistry. Our Lake Charles plants are fully operational, and we have a path to very attractive cash flows as we ramp up to extract the full value of these world-class assets.
Across our portfolio, we benefit from unique chemistry, thanks to our differentiated FT and Ziegler, Alumina, Guerbet technologies. We will continue to leverage this to high-grade our portfolio with more specialty solutions and sustainable chemicals in future. In particular, we intend to accelerate growth in Essential Care Chemicals and Advanced Materials, building on leading market positions of today. Finally, our new business unit, Sasol ecoFT, will focus on building new sustainable businesses leveraging our advantage FT technology. We believe that FT is uniquely positioned to thrive in a fossil fuel-free world. One of the first applications for the technology is likely to be sustainable aviation fuels, where new regulations are driving demand and existing technology and feedstocks have limitations that FT can address. As you would have picked up, FT plays a central role in our portfolio. It is also at the core of our energy business.
We will continue to innovate to remain differentiated with our technology, process, and catalysts, investing in research and leveraging partnerships to progress our offering. Beyond FT, there are a few important themes across our portfolio that I would like to elaborate on. The first one is about delivering programmatic transformative change. Sasol 2.0 is critical to our mid-term economics. We are giving it specific attention, leveraging our strong capabilities built through our past efforts of orchestrating performance improvement at scale. The second theme is customer centricity. Across our businesses, our ability to understand and adapt to evolving customer needs is paramount to our success. We are investing in our capabilities, incentives, and ways of working to ensure our customers are at the center of our strategic choices, evolving our products and services to systematically improve our customer value proposition and co-creating tailored solutions.
Thirdly, we will need to continually reshape our corporate portfolio. Our business will evolve, transforming existing value chains to be future fit and shifting to sustainable businesses where we can differentiate or drive leadership economics, such as Essential Care Chemicals or green hydrogen in energy. This will require ongoing disciplined capital allocation and active portfolio management. Lastly, our partnering strategy is evolving to rapidly progress opportunities and the transformation. To enable this strategy and to deliver on our targets, we are making clear choices on key aspects of our business. First, to decarbonize our Southern Africa value chain, we are transitioning away from coal. We will not invest in any new coal reserves in the future. The natural decline profile of our current assets over time is sufficient to sustain our needs as we progressively shift to lower carbon feedstocks.
While our end state is a move to green hydrogen and sustainable carbon feedstocks, we believe gas has an important role to play in our mix as a transition feedstock with an inherent but significantly lower GHG footprint versus coal. Our plan is to gradually bring in more gas into our value chain, starting with another 40 PJ-60 PJ by 2030. This means delivering our PSA project and the PPA infill well drilling campaign in Mozambique to extend our production plateau. In addition, rerouting of commercial volumes to our own needs and bringing in LNG from 2026 or 2027. We are also making significant strides to integrating renewables into our operations to reduce our electricity emissions. We plan to procure 1,200 MW in tranches by 2030, starting with 600 MW in partnership with Air Liquide. I have talked about the Sasol ecoFT business already.
We are building a team to lead the development of this business with a focus on sustainable aviation fuel opportunities as a start. We believe this has the potential to become a substantial part of our business post-2030, and we think it is important to invest now to build leadership for the future. In chemicals, we remain convinced that future growth resides in the development of tailored solutions for our customers, helping them address sustainability challenges and providing specialty solutions leveraging our unique chemistry. Finally, in energy, given the role that we see green hydrogen playing in transforming our South African value chain and given our experience as a scale producer and user today, we intend to play a leading role in the development of the future green hydrogen economy in Southern Africa and are already making progress on that front.
Now to fast-forward 30 years, what could future Sasol look like in 2050 and beyond? There are multiple aspects which I would like to highlight. Green hydrogen usage is widespread in mobility, transport, and industrial processes across the globe. Given its high-quality renewables endowment, Southern Africa is a low-cost producer and scale exporter to international markets. Sasol is a market leader for green hydrogen in South Africa, producing green hydrogen in collaboration with an ecosystem of partners distributing to the local market through its retail and commercial network as well as export infrastructure. Sasol is operating close to or at zero fossil fuel facilities in South Africa, leveraging our Fischer-Tropsch technology with cost-affordable green hydrogen and CO2 from Direct Air Capture as feedstocks. New regions emerge to invest in viable power to ex facilities.
We are a recognized brand in South Africa, delivering differentiated value propositions to our franchisees and customers with our special decarbonized mobility and convenience solutions. Aviation fuels are 50% SAF blends and Sasol ecoFT facilities produce a large portion of these sustainable fuels. We are the technology leaders with our proprietary FT-SAF solution and value-add offerings. We operate in the global market with a portfolio of assets. On the chemicals front, we continue to be recognized for our ability to co-develop solutions with customers as well as co-solving for challenges around sustainability and circularity. We offer sustainable chemicals thanks to our Power-to-Chemicals facilities leveraging Fischer-Tropsch both as feedstock and end products. Future Sasol epitomizes our purpose, innovating for a better world. Building future Sasol will be a long-term journey with three imperatives: reset, transition, and reinvent our business for the future.
Our focus will naturally evolve over time from reset activities early on to more transition activities post-2025 and an emphasis on reinvent post-2030 as key markets we focus on start to gain traction and build scale. Reset is about stepping up our performance to create financial headroom by optimizing our asset portfolio, delivering on Sasol 2.0 to get our business to full potential, and taking early steps to progress our climate change transformation, producing our first small-scale green hydrogen as early as 2023 in Sasolburg. In energy, this is about best-in-class operations with tight controls on costs and capital efficiency and building customer leadership to accelerate growth in our mobility and commercial businesses. In chemicals, it includes ramping up the LCCP to full value. This will enable us to unlock sufficient cash to fund our transition and reinvent priorities. The transition phase has different facets.
First, it is about decarbonizing our assets, investing in energy efficiency, and integrating renewables and more gas into our portfolio, and then transforming operations with alternative feedstocks and shifting away from fossil fuels. The reinvent phase is about incubating, scaling, and bringing to maturity new sustainable businesses to shift our portfolio over time. We will focus on opportunities where we have advantages that give us a right to win. These include affordable green hydrogen and Direct Air Capture of CO2 feedstock openings in Southern Africa and sustainable aviation fuels globally, among others, where we will leverage FT technology and experience and ultimately approaching a zero fossil fuels-based facility in the future, particularly for our South African facilities. I'm confident in our ability to be successful in our transformation journey because our strategy builds on strong foundations and clear competitive advantages today. Let me elaborate. One, We benefit from differentiated technologies.
We are the undisputed leader in FT, and we produce a unique range of chemical products thanks to our Ziegler, Alumina, and Guerbet processes. We have a long history of innovation and a track record of successfully bringing new technologies and products to commercialization. Our strategy builds on that strength, with our technologies playing a central role. Two, our assets are advantage. Our recently commissioned LCCP is a brand-new state-of-the-art asset, positioning us on the lower end of the cost curve of the industry. Our integrated Southern Africa value chain is highly competitive and resilient at low oil prices. We are relentless about cost efficiency and continue to improve on this through Sasol 2.0. The third is people. Sasol has always been a fantastic talent factory. Our people are one of our greatest assets, recognized for their technical skills and ability to develop and operate complex value chains globally.
Our skills in marketing and customer product solution development are well-known in the industry. Lastly, we can build on strong market positions across our business. We are recognized as the energy leader in Southern Africa with a very strong brand. Our chemicals portfolio is built around strong market positions in Essential Care Chemicals and Advanced Materials. I have mentioned the importance of FT to future Sasol. Let me provide more context on the technology and why it is so well-positioned to thrive in a fossil fuel-free world. There are three aspects to that. First, the process takes hydrogen as co-feedstock. Currently, FT plants use gray hydrogen, but this can evolve as low carbon and green hydrogen take off and become cost competitive. Second, the technology is carbon source agnostic.
Currently, FT plants use fossil fuels like coal or gas, but over time, this could be substituted with sustainable sources of carbon like biomass, carbon captured from carbon-intensive processes, and eventually Direct Air Capture for a fully sustainable and unlimited carbon source. The technology produces a wide slate of hydrocarbons, which opens many promising avenues for sustainable liquid fuels and chemicals. Furthermore, we have installed capacity producing synthetic products today, which can be retrofitted to process sustainable cost-affordable hydrogen and carbon feedstock with optimal capital to be future-fitted. This, coupled with our unrivaled experience and our differentiated technology and catalysts, we are ideally positioned to lead.
While our strategy builds on our unique strengths and advantages, we also recognize that to be successful, we will need to progress on a number of dimensions that will be critical to our future success. We will need to be able to rapidly adapt in step with evolving customer needs and maintain a truly differentiated value proposition and customer experience, hence building greater customer centricity throughout our organization. To establish an early leadership position in the nascent markets like green hydrogen in Southern Africa or SAF internationally, we will need to enhance our strong market and business development capabilities. We will need to continue effectively partnering with an ecosystem of players across the value chain to complement our skills and product offering, therefore strengthening our partnering skills to ensure successful collaborations. To maintain our technology advantage, we will need to continually improve on the innovation capacity and capabilities.
We must also be able to effectively collaborate with governments and regulators to support a conducive policy environment to enable a transition that is just and value-adding for the country. We are already starting to invest to build these capabilities that will make us successful in the future and are doing this via a mix of in-house capability development, external recruiting and strategic partnerships. Today, you have heard me talk about our commitment to a 2050 net zero ambition and our tripled GHG reduction targets by 2030. I've reiterated our commitment to a just transition, preserving jobs and adapting our workforce and communities with skills relevant for the future. I've also reiterated that we are progressing on this path at pace and that enables us to preserve returns. Our strategy aims to balance people, planet, and profit outcomes.
Guiding us on this transformation journey is our purpose, innovating for a better world. I've said on previous occasions that for Sasol, innovating speaks to doing things differently. This touches on every aspect of our organization, our technologies, products, how we run our plants, partnering with customers, supporting communities, building the Sasol brand, and realizing the full potential of our people and business. It is about reinventing ourselves over time. Innovation also speaks to our heritage of developing advantage and differentiated technologies. As you have heard, this underpins our strategy and growth drivers. Equally important, we do all this to make the world a better place, to deliver on our triple bottom line outcomes of people, planet, and profit responsibly and always with the intent to be a force for good.
Our purpose captures the essence of future Sasol and our can-do spirit is ingrained in the DNA of our remarkable people. I will now hand over to Paul to share more details on our financial framework and ambition.
Thank you, Fleetwood. Good day, ladies and gentlemen. Today, I would like to share our financial framework, which is underpinned by our refocused strategy and drive to grow share value while accelerating our transition. We aim to achieve both ambitious climate change targets and attractive, resilient, and growing financial returns in future. In this financial section, I will explain why we're confident that we can achieve these objectives. As we go through this section, most of the numbers that you will hear are based on an oil price outlook of $55 /b bl in real terms. We clearly operate in a volatile environment. We have tested to make sure that these plans do work in a $45 /bbl environment.
Our conclusion from this exercise is that our strategy, operating model, capital allocation framework, and resulting targets are robust enough to set us up for a sustainable future. The first step in creating resilience was a reset of the balance sheet, we are nearly there now. We are also very well on track to improve our cost competitiveness and so increase our cash flow generating ability even in low oil price environments. Personally, I'm very excited that we have a credible pathway to become a greener and a more sustainable business by leveraging our technologies. The capital required to achieve our first key step of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030 is moderate and manageable and doesn't come at the expense of improved financial returns. It's really a win-win for all.
We plan to continue to reduce debt and restore the dividend, achieve investment-grade metrics by financial year 2023, and fully deliver Sasol 2.0 by financial year 2025. An increase in ROIC through the period to 2030, alongside achieving a broader sustainability on objectives. Looking to the medium to longer term, we can already see new and exciting opportunities opening up for us. We are well-positioned to win in new value pools, such as green hydrogen economy and sustainable aviation fuels, we'll work very hard to build our positions there as we achieve our near-term objectives. Today, we are providing you with clear financial targets up to 2030. As we get 10 years out, it's obviously hard to give the same level of clarity at this stage.
We do have clear investment criteria to ensure that investment decisions for the various pathways to net zero are made in a way that ensure that we protect our shareholders' interests and that the business is growing at value and very sustainably. As mentioned before, we are approaching the short and medium term in two phases. Up to 2025, our immediate priority is to complete the deleveraging journey and achieve absolute debt levels so we can sustain any macroeconomic shock. Delivering Sasol 2.0 will enhance our cost competitiveness to our peer group, require a minimal capital spend to execute, enhance our cash flows, and ensure we restore dividends. Very importantly, this will enable us to fund our transition pathway.
Delivering full value from the LCCP will further diversify our cash flow sources and uniquely position us to significantly reduce our US dollar debt commitments and provide a healthy source of cash flow to execute the next phase of our strategy. With the progress made thus far and our assessment of the future capital needs, we believe this to be very achievable. Turning to the period up to financial year 2030, there is more of a balance between the returns of investments and the transition plan. As we ramp up our investments to achieve our climate change targets, we will also focus on driving broader strategic growth initiatives, increasing dividend payouts, and consider other shareholder returns. We have many business challenges and opportunities to navigate during this period, such as introducing more gas and renewables, reduce our coal usage, and establish credible value pools for further value growth.
Taking these factors into account, we have set clear targets that underscores our commitment to deliver sustainable value to all of our shareholders. As I mentioned, we are making good progress with the implementation of Sasol 2.0. This will improve our cost competitiveness and robustness in a low oil price environment and also ensure that we can execute the next phase of our strategy. Sasol 2.0 has involved some fundamental changes to our business model as it demands a more agile approach, improve effective decision-making, and it really focuses on improving market-facing capabilities as well as customer centricity. Please allow me to provide you with some examples of the various initiatives delivering the future value. The implementation of the new operating model and our leaner organization structure is expected to deliver savings of around about ZAR 3 billion per annum.
Most of the work has been completed with the pre-investment mostly incurred during financial year 2021. We are ramping up these benefits at speed from financial year 2022 onwards. Our continuous mining shift system was also rolled out last financial year. That will now ramp up to deliver approximately ZAR 300 million-ZAR 500 million per annum by financial year 2023 and onwards. I have to admit that the rollout was slower than what we expected, but we are very busy in making the shift to best-in-class mining operations. We are increasing our commitment to shared services and big data and improve our supply chain processes. Several initiatives are in the process of being implemented with early indications that we will achieve our expected returns. Targeted margin improvements in the chemicals and energy business will be delivered through focused customer centricity and optimization of our product strategies.
My colleagues will share more details later in the presentation. Our December 2020 Sasol 2.0 targets still stand, and judging from the initial progress we made in financial year 2021, we are quite confident that we will achieve these benefits in a very steady manner over the next few years. I would like to take you through our overall targets for the phases up to financial year 2025 and then to financial year 2030. I already mentioned the objectives informing our targets and would like to briefly highlight the following key points to you. Firstly, we plan to step up our ROIC as we go through the Sasol 2.0 and business transition phase. We target to increase our ROIC to between 12%-15% in a $55 /bb l scenario to financial year 2025 and above 15% leading up to financial year 2030.
Secondly, we aim to restore the dividend as soon as we are confident that we can do so on a sustainable basis. The board approved key triggers to navigate this decision. The minimum payout of 2.8 x or 36% of core headline earnings per share will be triggered when we achieve a leverage ratio of 1.5 x net debt to EBITDA and an absolute debt level of below $5 billion. The step up to 2.5 x or 40% core headline earnings per share will follow when absolute net debt levels reduce to below $4 billion. When the company achieve these triggers, the board will reinstate the dividend as long as there's confidence that it can be sustained based on the prevailing outlook at that point in time. We currently intend to keep the regular dividend within this new range.
Thirdly, to support the dividends and the funding of the strategy, we plan to manage the balance sheet at lower gearing levels in line with many of our global peers. Fourthly, as mentioned before, we plan to manage our cost competitiveness of our South African integrated value chain cash break-even level to between $30/bbl and $35 / bbl throughout this period up till financial year 2030. This will ensure business resilience in managing future periods of market price and regulatory volatility. As a final point, we will maintain capital discipline. We have implemented and evolved our 2017 capital allocation framework. Although the LCCP capital overruns overshadowed the progress made in this regard, I can assure you that this framework assisted us greatly to manage and navigate through the unprecedented times we experienced over the past 18 months, and the significant effects thereof.
We estimate that we can manage capital spend to between ZAR 20 billion and ZAR 25 billion per annum to maintain our asset base, comply with all relevant environmental and air quality regulations, fund our transition to a 30% greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030. The aggregate capital for this transition is estimated at between ZAR 15 billion and ZAR 25 billion and is included in the ZAR 20 billion -ZAR 25 billion per annum capital cash flow, which I will provide more color on later during this presentation. We are of the view that these targets sustainably balance shareholder returns, ensure that we remain resilient and competitive, and enables the first significant step to transform our business footprint towards a more sustainable future. Given the company targets I just spoke to, please allow me now to talk you through how we expect returns to evolve over the next 10 years.
Overall, we believe that we can drive improved financial returns in parallel with the investments required to achieve our climate change targets. It is important to reflect a bit on the underlying moving parts to achieve this planned results. Starting with energy, in the period up to financial year 2025, the benefits from Sasol 2.0 will more than offset the dilution we anticipate resulting from the investments we will have to make in achieving our climate targets. From financial year 2025, we believe that we can further increase returns through further planned decreases in mining costs, as well as efficiency benefits, which outweighs some margin dilution from higher feedstock. This means in us broadly holding the break-even price for the South African business up to financial year 2030, which will really ensure resilience throughout this whole period.
This is based on some reasonably conservative assumptions. If pricing increases ahead of our expectation as the world recovers from this pandemic, we will have excellent operating leverage to benefit from these gains. Priscillah will expand on the value preservation of our South African assets and the decarbonization imperative, which with disciplined capital allocation, will enhance returns. For the chemicals business, we have different dynamics in the South African and the international business. Let me walk you through them separately. In South Africa, the business should hold margins flat through to financial year 2025, with benefits from Sasol 2.0 offset by anticipated cost pressures from higher gas feedstock. Through to financial year 2030, there will be further return dilution from mostly higher gas costs that are only partly mitigated by efficiency gains.
While our current estimates may be quite conservative, we believe that we have our work cut out for ourselves to improve these returns, especially for the period financial 2025 to financial year 2030. Our international chemicals business has a clear pathway to improve returns as the full benefits of the LCCP investment starts to realize. Returns are currently below WACC. We do believe that we can significantly increase cash flows to the previous guided EBITDA levels and deliver above weighted average cost of capital return. Brad will address what actions we plan to take in his section of the presentation. The overall Sasol group return profile will continue to improve significantly and remains attractive. There is a clear pathway through to higher returns while we achieve our climate change objectives. The major asset divestments to deliver the business improvements have already been made.
We are well-positioned to deliver sustained value from our reshaped asset base going forward. As we go through the next phase of Sasol's development, capital discipline will be quite key. We have refreshed our capital allocation framework to enable the successful execution of our strategy and to reflect on our commitment to sharing improved returns with our shareholders. Our capital allocation framework is about achieving the balance between our delivery of our climate change ambitions and protecting the growth for our shareholders. It's also about the balance between near and long-term returns. Our shareholders have been very patient in foregoing the dividend, but we hope to restore the dividend shortly and give shareholders clarity on the return framework going forward. With those overarching comments in mind, let me walk you through some of the detail of the capital allocation framework.
In the first order of allocation, we need to make sure that we have two key components that underpins everything. Firstly, a well-invested asset base that is fit for the future, and a strong balance sheet that can continue to fund the strategy and endure said cyclical pressures that we might face along the way. In order to ensure a well-invested asset base, capital expenditure required to maintain and transform our business comes really first. The combination will be in a range of about ZAR 20 billion- ZAR 25 billion per annum, and includes ZAR 15 billion- ZAR 25 billion in aggregate transformation capital up to 2030. In addition, we have some selective growth and improvement capital in our first order. I want to be clear that this capital is where the amounts involved are very modest, and the returns are clear both in terms of level and timing.
In other words, these are quick wins, and very much smaller scale seed investments for longer term sustainability initiatives. To give some sense of scale, I would anticipate that this capital would be around ZAR 1 billion per annum, and with returns well above the weighted average cost of capital. In terms of balance sheet, we want to get back to investment grade metrics. The key reference point here on the leverage below 1.5x net-to-EBITDA, and over time, absolute net debt levels of below $4 billion . The idea behind those targets is always to make sure that we have a strong liquidity position, and we will also make sure that we keep going consistently with investing in our strategy without needing to change direction with short-term price volatility or other unexpected developments happening or coming at us. As the balance sheet strengthens, we will restore dividends.
We want to make sure that those dividends do form part of the baseline returns that shareholders can expect. As I mentioned earlier, we anticipate stepping up the payment levels over time. Our ultimate target is a cover level of 2.5 x or a 40% payout based on core headline earnings per share. The advantage of a payout or cover-based dividend policy is that it will naturally adjust up or down with the pricing cycle. So we are very confident that this is the right approach to follow for our type of business. Mostly, this is in line with our global peer group. In our second order of allocation, we will make sure that there's effective competition for all discretionary capital that we generate. Again, the decisions here will come back to the question of balance.
Available capital will be considered between investing sensibly for long-term growth, but also looking at supplement shareholder returns, either through buybacks or special dividends. In the next slide, I will go into a little bit more detail about the specific guidelines we have set supporting our capital allocation. As we said at the last results release, the disposal program is now ending. In terms of our funding, we are very grateful to our supportive financing group over the last few years, and intend to keep managing the balance sheet to make sure that we have a good maturity profile, diverse funding sources, and with lower absolute debt levels. In talking through the capital allocation framework, I've already explained the principles driving our decision-making process, but would like to explain some more of the detail in our approach in these three areas. First up is the portfolio.
I've already talked about our push for balance, and the fact that we do not see planet and profit in real tension with each other, but rather believe that we can achieve both planet and profit objectives together. In order to do that, we've already undertaken a huge amount of scenario planning to work out how we can get the best risk-adjusted returns that also achieve our climate change objectives. That's the pathway that we are talking you through today. I would emphasize that we are focused both on risk and returns, particularly as we explore new revenue opportunities that will involve some more elevated risk, and that is why you will hear today the partnership theme mentioned a number of times today. Because this helps us to reduce capital outlay, and also really broadens our resources and capabilities, which we bring to our projects.
Match us today is mostly focused on climate change pathways. We are also focused on growing the business more broadly, and we see that happening in phases. In the near term, I've already talked about the high returns, fast payback initiatives that we will support with modest amount of capital over the next few years. As we move towards and past financial year 2025, and discretionary cash flows generation will become more abundant, we will contemplate broader and bolder growth projects with the intention of making sure that both the energy and chemicals businesses are utilizing their competitive advantages. As we make those moves beyond the strategic overlay, risk-adjusted returns will be the guiding force while making sure we maintain excellent risk diversification.
Secondly, on returns, I've already discussed our approach to dividends and additional shareholder returns. I think it's important to emphasize that we want to maintain a good balance, and although the energy transition is really creating exciting opportunities for us, we really need to think about balance going forward. We are confident that we can invest where we need to and give the near-term returns. Finally, in a time of change, it's quite important that we have effective risk management and governance in place. We need to ensure that we've learned the key lessons over the last few years, and we can execute our projects effectively and efficiently in future. Now that I've been through our approach, our targets, and the detail of our capital allocation framework, I would like to show you a snapshot of what we expect the future to look like.
The modeling done shows that the plan allows us to sequence our capital spend so that we always live within our means and without adding pressure to our balance sheet. Beyond that, you can clearly see that the discretionary cash flow generation starts to build steadily over the next few years as we finish the balance sheet de-leveraging process and realize the incremental rewards of Sasol 2.0. Therefore, you can expect the focus will then shift to expansionary growth options and additional returns by financial year 2024, more or less. As I mentioned, our first priority remains sustainable and resilient dividends to our shareholders. The remainder of our capital available will be allocated to future growth investments or considering shareholder return options.
For now, we hold the view that for our growth projects, by that stage, we will have clarified and further refined our priority projects and will work from the base of a more resilient business. As mentioned, our plans work from reasonably conservative assumptions, and so hopefully there is also some upside to the plan. Obviously, we don't want to rely on that macro support at this stage of the game. In conclusion, I would like to leave you with the following takeaways. Firstly, we have a strategy that can deliver our climate change targets and preserve and grow sustainable long-term value. We have set clear business targets for ourselves up to financial year 2030 and a clear strategy with defined investment criteria to invest in our pathways beyond financial year 2030.
Priscillah will provide more color around the details of the various proof points we will consider in making sustainable investments. Secondly, we head into this process with confidence that we have already taken huge strides towards creating a much more resilient business with progress made towards cost structures, organization model, and a balance sheet that is better able to navigate a volatile environment and consistently deliver on our strategic objectives. Thirdly, we are committed to shareholder returns. We have moved away from big project investments with long-dated returns towards measured and impactful investments over time with a consistent return. Balancing up investments in the business with dividends and buybacks. Finally, in order to navigate all of the capital decisions we face in delivering on these objectives, we have a clear and updated capital allocation framework and governance structure to ensure effective and efficient decision-making.
In conclusion, I would just like to emphasize again that we are conscious that we live in very dynamic environment, and we have designed a plan and a framework that allows us to adapt. That will inevitably mean that some of these targets may need to evolve over time. Hopefully today, we have given you some real insight as to how and why we face the future with a newfound confidence. I will now hand over to Priscillah to talk you through the energy business strategy.
Thank you, Paul, and good day, everyone. This month marks my first year at Sasol and has been an incredible journey. I'm inspired by the drive and commitment of my colleagues as they work tirelessly during very uncertain times to deliver energy solutions to our customers and value to shareholders. The care and innovative spirit continues to energize me. Building on Fleetwood's opening remarks, our strategy is guided by a purpose of innovating for a better world. We have embraced the drive to a net zero ambition as a purposeful opportunity and platform for growth and value creation. We believe that this journey will require collaboration and strong leadership in the region. Sasol is poised to lead and drive the much-needed collaboration. The key messages that I intend to share today are, firstly, we have advantage and flexible assets coupled with our distinctive capabilities to generate cash and strong returns.
Secondly, we continue to drive the resilience of our portfolio to top quartile through improvement in reliability and cost competitiveness, while also offering differentiated customer propositions to unlock value for our shareholders. Thirdly, preparing for a net zero future by 2050. To underpin this ambition, we are tripling our 2030 GHG reduction target for Scope 1 and 2 announced last year. We are also introducing a Scope 3 reduction target by 2030. Lastly, our feedstock-agnostic FT technology, coupled with our existing chemicals and refining units, provide an opportunity for us to repurpose our assets. This can be done in a flexible manner, in line with demand for sustainable solution, while also targeting high-value products. This is a huge and unique competitive advantage. We will leverage our partnership platforms to share risks and build new capabilities in low carbon solutions.
In shaping our strategic ambition, we've analyzed the global mega trends and the likely impact on Southern Africa. The growing global population and rise of middle class is expected to result in an increased demand for energy despite efficiencies through technology improvements and customer behavioral changes. However, the energy mix is changing as society, regulators, and customers are demanding cleaner and more affordable energy. This change will not happen overnight. In South Africa, the pace of change depends on both global and local factors. Our scenarios show that fossil-based liquid fuels demand in South Africa increases to 2025 and then remains relatively flat to 2030. Thereafter, there is an acceleration of electrification, predominantly for passenger vehicles, renewables, and sustainable solutions. By 2050, we expect the demand for green hydrogen production of four to seven million tons in South Africa, supported by significant growth in renewables.
By 2030, we also expect the cost of hydrogen to reduce from around $5/kg to below $2 /kg , which will accelerate decarbonization opportunities for hard-to-abate industries, including our operations. Our commercial customers, particularly those with a global footprint, will require low carbon solutions to address the Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions and remain competitive. We also expect that our customer will continue to redefine mobility and convenience expectations, resulting in innovative solutions to repurpose our real estate. An example is investing in new adjacencies such as hydrogen filling station, while also providing growth through other convenience and digital platforms such as last mile delivery. This emergence of new value pools will become more attractive through technology breakthroughs and scale-up. Further regulatory reforms, such as self-mandates and cross-border tax, will accelerate investment in development of sustainable energy solutions.
Whatever the pace and form the transition takes, Sasol is well-posed to be an active participant. The energy transition presents unique challenges for South Africa, given that it is amongst the world's highest per capita greenhouse gas emitters. Our economic context is also challenging, with infrastructure constraints, shortage of skills, and rising unemployment, limiting the growth potential in the medium-term. However, at the same time, we have a deep belief that the changing energy mix and flows presents a huge opportunity for a green hydrogen economy. This could be the catalyst for growth given strong endowments in wind and solar resources, platinum group metals, and access to unique technologies such as FT. We also believe that Southern Africa can grow its export market to low carbon products, given our advantage geographic positioning.
To achieve this, we will require collaboration between governments and private sector with a roadmap which supports the transition. Our distinctive competitive advantage, iconic brand, and deep capabilities in running complex value chains play to the energy transition era, and we at Sasol aspire to lead the change in Southern Africa. Against this backdrop, our strategy is built on three pillars. Each pillar represents an exciting opportunity in its own right. First, the decarbonization agenda has already started. We want to be well-advanced in our GHG emission reduction activities by 2030, which underpins our 2050 net zero ambition. This we will do by pursuing energy efficiency levers, such as energy integration to produce more steel, implementing renewables at scale, while also transitioning to low carbon feedstock, such as gas.
Gas will play a critical role as a transitional carbon solution for our feedstock needs and customers, but will be introduced in a phased approach to create flexibility and optionality to pivot to sustainable feedstock as technology learnings improves. On renewables, we intend to procure at least 1,200 MW by 2030, which will see us become the largest offtaker of renewables in the country. Secondly, as we decarbonize, we have to preserve and deliver value from our foundation business, which is key to our transformation as this cash flows enable our strategy. First and foremost, we will maintain our absolute focus on safety and operational reliability. Delivery of the $7 billion additional EBITDA target made up of cash costs and gross margin through Sasol 2.0 by 2025 is key. We have defined a clear set of initiatives and are making good progress to deliver our full potential.
We have an ambitious customer-centric strategy to win and expand our market leadership in mobility and commercial channels. We believe we have a right to win as the major downstream player with an iconic brand. Our unique inland refining capacity positions us well to capture a disproportionate growth in the key segments. We aim to excite our customers with new and differentiated offers, modernized stores, digital offerings that increase convenience. We will continue to build our network in high-growth areas. We will leverage our strategic partners to further enhance our offering. As an example, we have concluded a strategic partnership with McDonald's South Africa, aimed at enhancing our customer experience through innovative solutions. We understand the importance of loyalty programs in South Africa, and I am very excited to announce the plan to launch the first of our new revitalized program in December 2021.
We have also partnered with Imperial Logistics to grow our commercial business both in South Africa and neighboring countries, expanding our network footprint. The third pillar of our strategy is that we plan to scale low-carbon opportunities in select markets where we see an opportunity for growth and integration. True to our purpose, we will bring the mobility revolution to our customers, launching new businesses to grow mobile fuel delivery and offering sustainable fuels to support our customer needs. We are well-positioned to produce the first green hydrogen in June 2023, albeit on a small scale from our Sasolburg facility at minimum cost. This will position Sasol to demonstrate and capture first-mover advantage. We are also participating in the H2Global auction and aim to be the first producer of SAF in the country by 2025, out of Secunda in partnership with Linde, ENERTRAG, and Navitas.
We are collaborating to develop hydrogen export post-2030. We have taken learnings from previous projects and we are partnered to share risks and to complement our capabilities. In this regard, we have advanced a number of partnerships with a few already announced, such as Toyota South Africa and Imperial Logistics, with others at an advanced stage. Finally, we are excited to have concluded the first public-private partnerships in the region with the Industrial Development Corporation and Central Energy Fund to drive catalytic transformation. These opportunities present huge prospects over the next decade. Following on from what Fleetwood shared earlier, let me provide further color on the bold choices we have made to support our three pillars. First, we will shift our feedstock and energy mix to low-carbon alternatives by not investing in new coal reserves.
As we transition and reduce our coal use, we will continue our focus on coal quality and efficiencies, leveraging partnerships. We will introduce additional gas incrementally as a transitionary feedstock. This will enable us to avoid long-term lock-ins while also creating flexibility and to take advantage of technology breakthroughs. Through partnerships, we are also intensifying our investment in integrated renewables to decarbonize our operations while laying a foundation for our green hydrogen ambitions. We will accelerate green hydrogen at scale through our installed FT asset base. Our strategic choices will ensure we deliver on our ambitions and leverage the best parts of Sasol, while also profoundly changing the way we work. The pace and the economics of the decarbonization agenda remain uncertain and will depend on a number of factors which are difficult to predict.
To that end, we have developed flexible pathways to leverage technology advancement while preserving shareholder value. We aim to replace 10 million tons of coal by 2030 with gas. Today, we are a leader in gas in Southern Africa, with operational capabilities and infrastructure in Mozambique. We will build from this leadership position to bring in incremental gas via LNG imports to replace coal. We are making good progress in negotiating a term sheet for LNG imports via Mozambique with a global player and are in advanced discussions with potential partners to unlock Richards Bay Terminal. Our gas strategy remains to maximize our own resources first before procuring LNG. Gas from our Pande - Temane gas fields is declining as expected, and we are optimizing the maturation of these resources.
Further, our drilling campaign to access new wells in both the Pande-Temane and Production Sharing Agreement is progressing better than planned. Our Gas-to-Liquids process emits eight times less CO2 per ton of product compared to Coal-to-Liquids. Therefore, an incremental transition to more gas will bring significant reduction in emissions during the transition. To promote gas as a critical enabler for decarbonization, the Central Energy Fund and Sasol have signed a memorandum of understanding to collaborate on the acceleration of gas solutions in Southern Africa. This agreement brings together South Africa's two leading pioneers of gas industry, both with deep experience across the value chain. Towards the middle of the decade, we expect to introduce alternative low-carbon feedstocks such as green hydrogen and biomass. These feedstocks will accelerate our decarbonization agenda and reduce our Scope 1 emissions in the longer term.
The pace of feedstock transition will be informed by the key signposts, namely technology changes which could reduce costs. As an example, as green hydrogen costs reach the range of $1 /kg $2 / kg, it becomes cost-competitive with coal as feedstock. In addition to the green hydrogen, we also require a sustainable carbon source. Initially, we will start by using biomass in small quantities, but eventually, we will require technologies like Direct Air Capture to become economically viable to address the scale of hydrogen that is required to meet the country's decarbonization objective. We see the potential for application of this technology once costs approach $200 per ton, which will likely to be beyond 2040. Development in regulations, including carbon tax and potential incentives, are additional signposts that Sasol will monitor and proactively manage through our advocacy plan.
Lastly, customer sentiments and pricing changes will afford us an opportunity to accelerate the transition. We are initially targeting markets in Europe, where sustainable products are trading at a premium. In the long term, Secunda could be one of the lowest cost producers of sustainable products globally. We acknowledge the scale of the challenge and are committed to taking action to meet it. We will update you on the progress as our plans evolve. We believe that our net zero ambition is possible. We have multiple levers beyond feedstock to achieve this. Like with the rest of our strategy, we will not do this on our own, but we will leverage on strong existing technology and innovation partnerships.
This includes partnering with the Council for Geoscience on Carbon Capture and Storage, enhancing our university support programs, and working closely with the South African government to develop a hydrogen master plan and roadmap. Our longstanding portfolio of assets is at the core of our heritage and important to meet South Africa's energy and economic needs. We run some of the most complex value chains globally while maintaining safe and reliable operations. This provides us with a solid base to transform. We have high levels of confidence that we can convert the Secunda facility to produce green hydrogen and selected high-premium sustainable chemicals to benefit our customers and the country. Our assets are highly cash generative and provide access to both domestic and export markets. We are very proud of our competitive position relative to peers.
With the break-even cost reducing drastically since 2010 due to efficiencies, digitalization, and our highly capable people. Through Sasol 2.0, we plan to further improve on this break-even point, targeting $30 /bbl- $35 /bbl by 2025 and beyond through further efficiency gains, optimization of external spend, and better supply management. This is despite the higher feedstock and decarbonization costs. Our energy business has an unmatched record of delivery, and we will continue to meet our targets to enable us to self-fund our transition. Looking at our asset portfolio, we have flexibility to repurpose our facilities to open up high-value, low-carbon opportunities. Our proprietary FT technology and process is feedstock agnostic, allowing us to transition from our current fossil feedstock to sustainable carbon and green hydrogen.
This can be introduced incrementally into our Secunda facility and provides us with flexibility to progressively move toward a future without fossil fuel feedstocks and emissions. Our advantage assets in Secunda and Sasolburg are located in the demand hub for the region. These assets provide the opportunity to incrementally scale the introduction of green hydrogen up to 2 million tons per annum to produce sustainable products. This anchor demand provides a continuous offtake, allowing for optimal capital allocation while providing customer solutions in line with market demand. With minimal changes, we can immediately produce high-value premium products that customers will be demanding into the future, such as SAF, green ammonia, green methanol, and high-value chemical derivatives. As an example, we can scale SAF production from a few hundred barrels per day to 20,000 bbl per day at a relatively low cost.
We can also introduce up to 200,000 tons per annum green hydrogen into our facilities, the equivalent of 1.5 GW-2 GW of electrolyzer capacity with minimal changes to our site. A significant part of our asset base, as depicted in the blue, can be repurposed to produce sustainable products. This distinctive advantage, coupled with our technical capabilities, provides us with huge competitive benefit to outperform our competitors and capture value. We will review the optimal location for renewables and hydrogen production to achieve the best cost. Our ability to use green hydrogen at scale places us in a unique position to play a leading role in the growth of South Africa's green hydrogen economy. We acknowledge that Sasol's vision for our South African operations is considered impossible by many of our stakeholders.
Given our high energy and carbon-intensive Coal-to-Liquids and Gas-to-Chemicals operations, it may be difficult to imagine a future where Sasol produces sustainable fuels and chemicals. Ironically, converting green hydrogen to produce SAF is easier for Sasol compared to others. A path to zero fossil products can be implemented in phases over time as the technology cost becomes affordable. The unique opportunity that this transformation creates is to completely decarbonize and make sustainable customer solutions based on demand. Having said this, let me again reiterate that we do not underestimate the challenge ahead of us to transform our operations. While we are not promoting that a total conversion of our Secunda operations is feasible or even necessary, we are developing a vision of the end state to guide our future moves.
As mentioned, we are targeting a step change in our own decarbonization effort over the next decade, with a target of 30% reduction in Scope 1 and Scope 2 GHG emissions by 2030. This threefold increase is delivered with the same capital budget as our original 10% target, demonstrating our innovative spirit and efficiency drive. Our target to 2030 will result in a reduction of coal demand by 10 million tons, and consequently, our Scope 1 and 2 GHG emissions by 19 million tons. A coal reduction of this magnitude has a further benefit of improving our air quality emissions and other environmental matters. We will invest with the same capital budget, demonstrating both innovation and efficiency.
We have a clear integration roadmap to underpin 25% of the Scope 1 and 2 target, mainly driven by our current initiatives related to energy and process energy improvements, additional incremental gas of 40 GJ-60 GJ per annum, and 35% shutdown of boilers in Secunda. We currently use 1,200 MW of coal-based power, which over time will be replaced with renewables. We will start with 600 MW by 2024, ramping up to 1,200 MW by 2027. We are at an advanced stage with our partner, Air Liquide, to procure the first 600 MW for use in our Secunda operations. We have also agreed our first power purchase agreement for two embedded generation projects to procure 20 MW to produce green hydrogen at our Sasolburg operations by 2023.
We have set ourselves a new target to reduce our Scope 3 emissions by 20% by 2030, predominantly driven by a reduction in coal export and an incremental transition to lower carbon feedstock. To reiterate the point Fleetwood made earlier, as we transition, the labor impacts are not significant up to 2030. Notwithstanding, our transition is about our people, our communities, and will be undertaken in a just manner, enabled through our recently formed Just Transition office. Earlier, I unpacked mega trends influencing the energy mix and consequent new business opportunities to develop sustainable solutions for our customers. The new value pools present a huge business opportunity for us, given our geographic positioning, technical expertise, and advantaged customer relationships.
To put it into context, we expect 3 million tons-5 million tons of green hydrogen export from Southern Africa, with green ammonia being the first derivative to lead the export demand due to ease of transportation. Similarly, local demand for hydrogen, Power-to-Liquids, and sustainable chemicals are expected to be between 2 million tons-3 million tons per year, translating to a potential demand for Sasol in excess of 14,000 bbl per day, which we can tap into. Against this backdrop, our right to win is underpinned by our capabilities and skill set in producing the largest scale of gray hydrogen globally. Our unique FT technology, which is feedstock agnostic, our advantaged asset base, which can be seamlessly repurposed to produce sustainable products, a strong market position supported by an iconic brand, and existing infrastructure.
Partnerships with industry leaders to accelerate the pace of transition and development of new value pools. I've covered our competitive advantages, opportunities, and plans. All of this culminates into a solid value creation portfolio, generating strong competitive returns to 2030. This will provide strong cash generation to fund our transition. In the near term, our focus is on cash delivery and margin enhancement while delivering on our Sasol 2.0 ambition. This we will do by driving efficiencies and digitalization to deliver a cash break-even of between $30/bbl-$35 / bbl by 2030. In addition, we will drive strong market leadership position in our mobility and commercial channels, underpinned by plans to grow market share by 5%-10% in 2030. To grow our customer base, we will leverage strategic partnerships and our revitalized loyalty program to reach 1 million new customers by 2025.
We've also optimized our capital profile, which includes our emission reduction expenditure through efficiencies and better procurement processes. As we scale renewables, we will halve our electricity emissions and reduce related costs by 20%. Up to 2030, we are likely to face many headwinds, including carbon tax, higher feedstock prices, and climate-related expenditure. However, to ensure the resilience of the business, we've continued with our efficiency and margin improvement initiatives to deliver superior returns to our shareholders. I've shared quite a bit of detail on our new strategy today, which is rooted firmly in our purpose, innovating for a better world. To conclude, let me recap on a few selling points. First, we have advantaged assets and distinctive capabilities to create value and fund the transition.
We are leveraging our competitive strength and access to advantage feedstock, technology experience to deliver our aspired futures for lower carbon solutions and an even greater customer focus. We intend to move fast, but with care and discipline. Second, we have flexible pathways to achieve our net zero ambition by 2050, with credible plans to achieve 25% of our 2030 GHG target, and are confident that through technology improvements, we will achieve our 30% target. Third, we are creating optionality for securing affordable gas at multiple sources for our feedstock requirements and customer needs. Fourth, we are committed to co-creating sustainable solutions with our customers and to be a market leader in green hydrogen in Southern Africa. Finally, we are partnering to build new capabilities and manage risks.
As a proudly South African business focused on delivering sustainable solutions for our customers, we believe we can both help the country to decarbonize while seizing the huge business opportunities the energy transition has to offer. Our strategy is ambitious, but it is grounded on realism, and we are confident that we will deliver. Thank you for listening, I'll hand over to Marius to talk more about how we will leverage our FT technology in the future.
Good day, ladies and gentlemen. One of my key responsibilities is to oversee Sasol's Fischer-Tropsch Sustainable Solutions strategy. As you have heard today, it is essential for Sasol to transform into a more sustainable entity and keeping with our purpose, innovating for a better world. We are applying our product and technology innovation to reduce our environmental impacts and develop new sustainable business opportunities. What better way to do this than to leverage our 70-year heritage in Fischer-Tropsch technology to produce low-carbon sustainable fuels and chemicals? We foresee an exciting future for our FT technology, which we believe will play an important role in addressing hard-to-abate industry challenges towards delivering a sustainable future. Let me start by giving you an overview of the key messages I will be sharing with you today.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel, or SAF, as it is commonly referred to, is positioned to play a critical role in the decarbonization of the aviation industry. FT technology can provide Sustainable Aviation Fuel solutions that has exceptional abatement characteristics And can be produced from nearly unlimited green feedstocks. Sasol's FT technology has enormous potential for tomorrow's sustainable world. Its hydrogen and carbon feedstock flexibility means it can use green hydrogen and bio-based carbon or captured carbon to produce sustainable synthetic fuels and chemicals. Sasol has deep experience to produce synthetic fuels from coal and natural gas at world-class scale.
The global Power-to-X, or PtX technology solution, which is a combination of Power-to-Liquids and Power-to-Chemicals, is rapidly developing through increasing demand for Sustainable Aviation Fuel, presents a global growth opportunity for Sasol, as it is likely to be one of the first and most attractive applications of FT. Sasol is the undisputed leader in FT technology applications, therefore, we are well-positioned to win in the Sustainable Aviation Fuel market, building on our history of providing differentiated solutions across the globe. I will elaborate on this shortly. I will also share with you details on the new entrepreneurial FT Sustainable Solutions business unit, Sasol ecoFT, that we have just launched. Let's move our attention to the SAF industry and the opportunities it presents. The aviation sector is a meaningful contributor to emissions globally and is under significant pressure to decarbonize.
SAF is seen as one of the viable large-scale carbon reduction solutions for the sector, as it requires limited adaption to current engine technology. While only a marginal part of demand today, SAF is positioned to represent nearly 50% of the aviation fuel demand by 2050, as per IATA, the International Air Transport Association. Regulatory requirements across the globe are rapidly influencing market demand for SAF. Several Nordic countries have already announced national SAF planning mandates with targets of 30% for 2030. The European Commission's Fit for 55 package, released on 14 July this year, has defined important milestones for the industry, as it includes SAF blending mandates of 5% in 2030, ramping up to 32% by 2040 and 63% by 2050. In parallel, the U.S. Sustainable Skies Act proposes production tax credits to support SAF production, which, if passed, should drive an acceleration in demand.
The announcement of President Biden on 9 September indicates key federal actions to reduce carbon emissions by 20% by 2030, a grand challenge to produce nearly 90 million bbl of SAF per annum by 2030, and several funding mechanisms to improve aircraft fuel efficiency and technology development. Sustainable aviation fuels can be produced from a number of technology solutions, one of which is PtX. Let's take a closer look at the most notable SAF production methods. Power-to-Liquids, or PtL, leveraging FT technology, is set to be the winner in the SAF market from 2035 onwards, as other technologies face feedstock availability limitations, have a retained carbon emission footprint, are challenged for scalability, and are facing land and water use limitations. Hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids, or HEFA, is a mature technology and is the largest SAF source to date. It is the current lowest cost solution.
Its growth potential is constrained by feedstock availability, which is largely waste and residue lipids and purposefully grown oil energy plants. The HEFA solution has a limited GHG emission reduction potential of between 70%-85% relative to fossil jet fuels. It is estimated that HEFA can reach a maximum of between 5%-10% of global jet fuel demand by 2035. Alcohol-to-Jet and Biomass-to-Liquids via gasification and FT technologies are yet to be proven on a commercial scale. Albeit with slightly better GHG emission reduction potential, they face similar feedstock availability and logistical challenges as HEFA. The PtL solution is expected to benefit from declining costs of renewable electricity, green hydrogen production cost, and the advancement of carbon capture technology. PtL also has the highest GHG emission elimination potential, with nearly no feedstock constraints.
Beyond 2035, PtL SAF costs are expe cted to be very competitive, coming in under the cumulative sum of fossil-based jet fuel price and carbon tax. Sasol is uniquely positioned to enable the production of PtX at scale, as the technology benefits from declining cost of renewable electricity and green hydrogen. Sasol has a strong FT technology leadership position today. Our decades long experience with operating FT technology at unprecedented scale in multiple regions, and our seamless integrated technology solutions allows us to offer a competitive feedstock in and product out solution. In essence, we will be using our proven FT technology with sustainable feedstocks instead of coal and natural gas feedstock to produce fuels and chemicals. Sasol boasts unique and differentiated technology and intellectual property with a number of FT design and catalyst options applied at scale.
We have FT installed capacity that produces synthetic fuels from 10,000 bbl/day-150,000 bbl/ day. We have nearly 2,000 FT patents and our catalyst yields are best in class. Our technology and IP are differentiated with our latest catalyst offering enabling us to reach yields on e-kerosene in excess of 80%, which is well above what our peers can achieve. We also have the experience of producing synthetic fuels for the aviation industry in South Africa with a product that has been accredited by the relevant industry players. Sasol's longstanding technology partner relationships with Haldor Topsoe and Technip Energies presents an opportunity to provide a competitive PtX technology and commercial offering. We intend pursuing technology licensing with Haldor Topsoe, in parallel, explore equity participation in PtX ventures to start the journey, learn, and grow its position over time.
Our track record to advance technology development to commercialization scale supports our belief that we can use FT technology with multiple feedstock and product applications options to resolve the GHG emission challenge. We have a solid track record of delivering value with FT technology licensing and catalyst supplies to international gas-to-liquid ventures. Will leverage and further build on this to arrive at win-win commercial solutions for a zero-carbon FT SAF product solution. Sasol's technology track record, coupled with our operations experience, is a compelling and key value add to partners and ventures, providing a bankable solution offering. Sasol has therefore decided to enter the PtX market with an initial lower risk approach to advance our strategic position, also to act with urgency to position Sasol as a strong future player in the global PtX business, specifically the SAF market.
We are the global leader in the developing, certifying, producing, and marketing synthetic aviation fuel since 1991, when Sasol began its pursuit of synthetic aviation fuel production. Sasol has been producing synthetic fuel from the gasification of solid feedstocks, such as coal or biomass, or by reforming of natural gas and feeding these into our FT technology solution for many years successfully. In 2008, we received certification for our fully synthetic jet fuel. In 2010, Sasol powered the world's first passenger flight with fully synthetic fuel. Today, Sasol is a global leader in synthetic aviation fuel, supplying semi-synthetic fuel locally over the last decade and only a few of our competitors that has achieved certification with synthetic aviation fuels. Our fuels are already accredited by a number of industry players, IATA, aircraft and engine manufacturers, airlines, and government agencies.
Our processes are fully compatible with green feedstocks and can hence produce sustainable products very much sought after in a low carbon world. This gives us a headstart in the market. Whilst feedstock and technology costs such as green hydrogen and sustainable carbon are still high, calling an initial lower risk approach to advance our strategic position in PtX, also to act with urgency to position Sasol as a strong future player, specifically the PtX SAF market. Our phased market entry will focus on a few demonstration ventures to 2025, allowing for optimal technology integration and evaluation along the value chain, whereafter a scale-up strategy with co-investing is envisaged.
We are currently actively involved in a number of pre-feasibility studies for global PtX ventures with various value chain players. The demonstration ventures will allow us to maximize learning and develop ecosystem partnership as we position to realize full value potential. Winning in this space will require collaboration with customers, regulators, and our ecosystem of partners to innovate in deploying adequate technical solutions and creating commercial model that will make this work for all parties. We are advancing multiple monetization opportunities, including technology licensing, catalyst sales, technical services, and equity positions in new ventures. Our medium to long-term goal is to establish co-equity positions in several PtX ventures globally. Securing feedstock and offtakes as we optimize product choices with market needs in sustainable fuel and chemical. We are exploring low cost of capital, grants and incentives, and partnering to help fund venture opportunities.
This is to complement our own balance sheet. We are convinced that the opportunity will be substantial and that we need to move fast to solidify our competitive advantage as the market starts to structure itself over the coming years. Winning in PtX will require agility in decision-making and an entrepreneurial culture. We will lead this independently from our current businesses and with enough latitude to experiment and learn with the market. Therefore, in order to successfully incubate and scale our FT business, we are setting up a separate business unit, named Sasol ecoFT, to achieve these objectives. Our newly established business unit will lead the development of our FT sustainable solutions. To succeed in this new venture, we are nurturing an entrepreneurial culture and mindset to learn outside of the constraints of our existing businesses.
To this end, our immediate focus is to resource the business appropriately with the right skills and experience by appointing a PtX leadership team. We also recognize that partnerships will be increasingly important as we seek to enhance our competitive position and accelerate our transition. This we will do through collaboration with both public and private sectors. We plan on broadening and securing key partnerships with a focus on closing any capability or value chain gaps. Building an attractive venture pipeline with long-term partners is a key priority as we position the integrated technology offering to produce SAF in selected global geographies. We are also further articulating our go-to-market and product monetization offering. We will continue to work on the attractiveness of our PtX solution as we include most recent technology developments and engage with potential partners to update our offering.
We will be focusing on collaboratively creating commercial models that will meet the needs of our partners and markets. In conclusion, the GHG emission challenges faced by the aviation industry can be substantially addressed by SAF. In the medium to long term specifically, by PtX solutions as renewable energy, sustainable hydrogen, and carbon feedstock costs reduce. To reiterate, Sasol and its proven FT technology is well-positioned to enable the PtX SAF opportunity, underpinned by a long history of technology innovations and operations experience, design and product optimization, and the ability to deliver solutions at scale. We plan to maintain our position as the FT technology global market leader. Sasol today announced the formation of Sasol ecoFT, our new business unit aimed at developing and growing the FT sustainable solutions globally.
In due course, expect announcements of various ventures into demonstration units, as well as ecosystem technology and industry partnerships. Please also visit our Sasol website and explanatory video that provides more insight to SAF and our FT technology. I thank you for your time and now hand over to Brad.
Thank you, Marius. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. As you heard earlier from Fleetwood, we are growing to win with customers and expand our leadership positions. Chemicals is a key pathway for Sasol's future growth. You will hear today how chemicals is strongly positioned to deliver competitive and sustainable returns while transforming into a solutions provider with a focus on sustainability, circularity, and specialties. With sales offices and production sites in 19 countries on five continents, including recent investments in the U.S. and China, we have a well-invested and advantaged global asset base that is ideally positioned in key attractive and growing markets. You will also hear that chemicals is embracing sustainability in our own operations, and we will also win with customers on solutions that improve sustainability across the product life cycle.
These opportunities are possible because of our unique portfolio and technology leadership, which includes our world-leading alcohols portfolio, specialty aluminas, and legacy of FT chemicals marketing and application know-how. Furthermore, you will hear how our unique chemistry is key to our right to succeed today and in the future as we pivot towards high-margin specialty solutions. We have made clear choices to advance our future Sasol ambition and grow the chemicals business to achieve attractive and competitive returns. Our chemicals transformation program, a key part of Sasol 2.0, unlocks value through a more streamlined operating model and customer-centric organization with four market-oriented business divisions: Essential Care Chemicals, Advanced Materials, Performance Solutions, and Base Chemicals. We have incorporated business delivery and customer fulfillment into our Africa, Eurasia, and America business segments. We have brought our Lake Charles Chemicals Project, LCCP, to full operation, including our specialty-focused Ziegler, Alumina, and Guerbet assets.
This has enabled us to strengthen our leadership positions in Essential Care Chemicals and Advanced Materials. It has also focused our sustenance and growth capital expenditures on positioning our global footprint of assets for future growth in attractive geographic markets and high-margin applications. On the foundation of these key successes, we are now focused on value delivery from Sasol 2.0 and LCCP commercial ramp-up. In addition, we are in the early stages of developing concepts to build on our well-invested infrastructure in Lake Charles, positioning the site as a sustainability hub in future. We are also active to utilize renewable feedstocks in our Eurasian assets, which also creates the opportunity to evaluate those sites as innovation and sustainability hubs as we bring together technology collaboration between suppliers and customers to develop lower carbon and customizable solutions.
These focus areas will enable us to further extend our market-leading positions, particularly in Essential Care and Advanced Materials. We will also progress our market leadership by listening to the needs of our customers and identifying organic and inorganic growth opportunities that enhance our existing portfolio of solutions. In parallel, we will reinforce our focus on sustainable solutions by positioning our FT know-how to complement future sustainability businesses in southern Africa and elsewhere in the world, where our newly established Sasol ecoFT business creates opportunities for the market. Coupled with our unique chemistry and global asset base, delivery on these choices will transform chemicals into a solutions provider with a focus on sustainability, circularity, and specialties. As you heard earlier, we view sustainability as the defining topic in this period. This changing environment provides exciting opportunities for chemicals.
We see opportunities to decarbonize production in our industry. This involves our own operations where we will be a consumer of renewable electricity. We are also excited to be a solutions provider within the renewable power generation market. For example, we work with customers today to develop lubricant packages for wind turbines based on our specialty Guerbet alcohols. Our unique chemistry and our long experience of customer collaboration provide attractive opportunities to partner with customers to answer the broader global sustainability call. For example, in the Essential Care Chemicals markets where we are the global leader in surfactants and intermediates for fabric and home care, we have partnered with global consumer brands to use our branched alcohols to lessen the environmental impact of fabric care by enhancing the effectiveness of low-temperature laundry washing.
This is just one of the ways that we are working to reduce our own Scope 3 emissions and also to create reduction opportunities for customers and their billions of consumers worldwide. Our chemistry and technology positions us to innovate with customers for growth in waste-reducing solutions as well. For example, our alcohols enable our Performance Solutions customers to reduce waste significantly in metalworking applications. In addition, we have customized specialty aluminas for materials into high-performance abrasives. This enables efficient grinding and cutting solutions to increase efficiency and throughput in metalworking applications. As you will hear in more detail later, our assets are future-fit as they are well-suited to renewable and circular feedstocks. Further, the solutions we offer answer the sustainability call, and we are also well-aligned to powerful mega trends such as a growing and more wellness-conscious middle class, as well as digitalization and mobility.
Our Advanced Materials business is already a strategic supplier for key components in battery materials. With the market-oriented repositioning of our four business divisions, we have enhanced the opportunity to collaborate with customers to provide more compelling solutions. The last unit associated with the LCCP reached beneficial operation in November 2020. As a reminder, we invested in a world-scale ethane cracker and six derivative assets. The derivative assets are two polyethylene plants, an ethylene oxide ethylene glycol plant, an expansion of our Ziegler alcohols and alumina plant, a new Guerbet specialty alcohol plant, and an expansion of our ethoxylation surfactants capacity. In December 2020, we sold 50% of the cracker and the two polyethylene plants and created a joint venture with LyondellBasell, named Louisiana Integrated Polyethylene.
The other assets from LCCP have been retained fully by Sasol and are now integrated with the legacy assets in our Lake Charles site. After production challenges associated with two major hurricanes in the first half of financial year 2021, the units are producing well and the associated cash flow generation continues to improve. We are very happy with our joint venture with LyondellBasell on our base chemicals assets. They have proven to be sound operators of the facilities, and those assets remain an important contributor to earnings while providing Sasol Chemicals with exposure to commodity chemicals, including the current economic upcycle. The further challenges associated with the unprecedented winter storm in February have been resolved, and the resulting force majeure on our alcohols and surfactants product lines was lifted at the end of July 2021.
Looking ahead, we expect Chemicals America EBITDA to be in the range of $700 million - $900 million per year by fiscal year 2025. This is largely in line with previous market guidance provided in September 2020, which was based on the earnings contribution from our legacy assets in the U.S., plus the LCCP ring-fence contribution after the sale of the 50% share of the base chemicals assets. While the earnings expected are in a similar range, the timing is one year later following the prolonged impact of weather events and the ongoing COVID-19 global pandemic. We expect EBITDA to grow further between fiscal year 2026 and fiscal year 2030, closer to $900 million - $1.1 billion per year, as we seek to augment our existing asset base with low capital, debottlenecking, and expansion projects which have short payback periods and high returns.
This approach to upgrade our value chain is consistent with our track record of value creation from our European assets. We expect our return on invested capital for Chemicals America to exceed our US dollar weighted average cost of capital rate of 8% during the second half of the decade. In addition to delivering significant value from our existing U.S. operations, we are focused on delivering further value from the significant investment in infrastructure at the Lake Charles site. As you see in the photo on the left-hand side, our land encompasses nearly 800 hectares, with about 360 hectares occupied today by Sasol and the joint venture with LyondellBasell. This leaves more than 400 hectares of land for development, of which 200 hectares is shovel-ready. You can see some of this depicted in the image on the right-hand side.
We believe the Lake Charles site provides multiple attractive opportunities for enhancing value through co-location and for expansion as a sustainability hub with partners. Co-location options complement our own plans to use our invested infrastructure and to look at extensions of our market-leading businesses, particularly through further derivatization of our integrated ethoxylate and alcohol value chains. We also intend to extend our specialty Alumina assets to include facilities that further enhance the performance of our aluminas, all based on our track record of success from our Alumina facilities in Brunsbüttel, Germany. Our well-developed Lake Charles site is positioned in a prime pipeline corridor, which provides for advantaged feedstock access, as well as Carbon Capture and Utilization and a CO2 pipeline. You heard earlier from Marius about the potential for our Sasol ecoFT business and the link to CO2 and green hydrogen.
This absolutely has a potential fit for our Lake Charles site to position for a range of sustainable fuels and chemicals. In addition to the attractiveness of the physical infrastructure and location, Sasol has been recognized by our key stakeholders as a partner of choice in the region. We have been commended for our job creation, local procurement spend, responsible and safe operations, as well as our community investments over the years, with a special focus on workforce development and science, technology, engineering, and math, STEM, education. All of this builds a compelling story for why Sasol and our Lake Charles site are prime for further development. Beyond Lake Charles, we are also actioning our chemistry and partnerships for sustainable and circular solutions. As you heard earlier, the changing environment provides exciting opportunities to deploy our unique chemistry to answer the sustainability call.
Through collaborative innovation, we are working to win with customers by creating Scope 3 reduction opportunities throughout the value chain. Over the past year, the Chemicals business has focused on the development of a more complete assessment of our Scope 3 emissions. Within the chemicals industry, particularly where our chemistry is incorporated into consumer products, such as our Essential Care Chemicals, Scope 3 reduction will require collaboration with our customers, as well as with consumers, by providing products that motivate changes in consumer behavior. Given that Scope 3 achievements will require collaboration across the entire value chain of hundreds of products, we see opportunities to work with our customers to provide unique chemistry that enables them to progress their Scope 3 reductions. Besides the previously mentioned activities, we are also involved in several additional partnerships and collaborations. I will name a few key examples.
We are forming an association of companies in Italy to collaborate on developing a hydrogen valley in Sicily, as well as initiating a feasibility study on the use of Carbon Capture and Utilization for our Augusta, Italy production site. We are also pursuing international sustainability and carbon certification, referred to as ISCC+, for our Marl site, with an ambition to extend the certification to our Brunsbüttel site within the next 12 months. This certification is a key building block to provide our customers confidence that high-performing products meet international standards for sourcing and incorporation of circular and renewable feedstocks.
We are also reinforcing our commitments as an Africa regional member of the Alliance to End Plastic Waste to lead the acceleration of the circular economy in Southern Africa through our plastics recycling demonstration project, and we are exploring options for application of chemical recycling of plastic waste to create circular feedstocks for our facilities. Further to our work on Scope 3, today you heard Fleetwood announce Sasol's overall greenhouse gas reduction target of 30% of Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030. Sasol's international chemical sites are well-positioned to deliver on a 30% reduction target, even accounting for LCCP and other growth projects, which came online after 2017. Growth from LCCP and other capital projects post-2017 have added to our emissions quite significantly. Despite this, we have a clear path to reduce these emissions through three key levers in which we have a high degree of confidence.
Firstly, renewable energy through both virtual and direct renewable power purchase agreements is a significant reduction lever which we anticipate can be in full commercial implementation by 2026 for both our U.S. and European sites. Secondly, process optimization and energy efficiency initiatives provide another path for reduction well before 2030 with very modest capital requirements. Thirdly, our U.S. assets and several of our European assets are well-positioned in industry corridors that are ripe for collaboration on carbon capture utilization and/or storage. We anticipate these three key levers, renewable energy, process optimization and energy efficiency, and CCUS, will enable us to achieve our target for the Eurasian business platform and achieve most of our reduction target in the U.S., where we've had the most growth.
As we have seen, answering the call to reduce Scope 1 and Scope 2 greenhouse gas emissions is a shared goal of the chemical industry. The urgency to answer this call has greatly accelerated in the past year. As a result, we believe that the collective efforts and motivation of the chemicals industry, combined with the appropriate regulatory and incentive framework, will spur the development, scale-up, and commercialization of new advanced technologies, which will allow us to further reduce our Scope 1 and 2 emissions in Eurasia and the U.S. While we progress the known reduction levers of today, we will collaborate with industry and partners to evaluate and accelerate adoption of these advanced technologies. As we transition toward more sustainable solutions, we have a distinct advantage to continue to grow through market leadership because of our proprietary technologies.
In the Americas, Eurasia, and Southern Africa, our unique chemistry and our asset base are well-adapted to flexible feedstocks. We can continue to offer high-performing conventional feedstock-based products that enable waste reduction, efficiency, and light-weighting while also progressing in step with our customers toward incorporation of recycled and biomass feedstocks. With our legacy of FT knowhow, we are especially well-suited to lead in the FT-derived and PtX-based sustainable chemicals. On this future-fit adaptable foundation, we have an unparalleled combination of durable competitive advantages. We have the most diverse alcohols and surfactants portfolio in the world, offering solutions based on both natural and synthetic alcohols that range from high-demand, well-established products to innovative customizable surfactants. We have fostered innovation ecosystems and converted them to high-margin and true specialty business.
We have a proven track record of innovation in our Advanced Materials business with a legacy of converting co-products of the Ziegler alcohol process into over 400 customizable specialty aluminas. We have invested billions of US dollars in our assets in China, Europe, South Africa, and the U.S. over the past decade. We are well-positioned to grow with customers in a variety of applications. Our FT chemicals marketing and application knowhow is unmatched with a legacy of more than 60 years of FT chemicals production. You heard earlier from Priscillah that we plan to transition our Southern Africa operations to alternative feedstock sources, namely sustainable carbon and green hydrogen. This can lead to the transition of our existing chemicals product lines to a more sustainable carbon footprint.
Marius detailed how Sasol ecoFT will create opportunities for Sustainable Aviation Fuel as well as sustainable kerosene and naphtha, which can be adapted into feedstocks for our existing processes. The technology advantages are underpinned by our customer and market leadership in Essential Care Chemicals and Advanced Materials as well as our strong reputation and brand recognition for chemicals in Southern Africa. Our recent repositioning of our business divisions to be market-facing further enhances our customer centricity and ability to innovate for custom solutions. These custom solutions are not only valuable for our direct customers but also provide compelling solutions truly delivering on Sasol's purpose of innovating for a better world. These include a unique formulation based on our alcohols and surfactants that can provide sunscreen for plants, helping to combat light damage and heat stress.
We have also developed asphalt additives derived from our FT wax processes for faster and cleaner asphalt construction, which is a rising area of focus given renewed emphasis on infrastructure and global urbanization megatrends. A Guerbet acid ISOCARB 16, derived from Sasol's ISOFOL 16 specialty Guerbet alcohol, is a key ingredient in a unique lipid nanoparticle that creates a fatty layer of protection for the successful delivery of a messenger RNA vaccine's active component, allowing it to safely make its journey into the body's cells. We also see exciting application developments in biodegradable Guerbet specialty alcohol products, which enable skincare products to be more sustainable. Within Advanced Materials, our catalysts and carriers are key enablers of FT production today and for future PtX production, building on a proven track record.
Because of our unique chemistry, Sasol is positioned to be a solutions provider in Carbon Capture and Storage, not just a consumer. Our surfactants, well-proven in other energy extraction and natural resource applications, can enhance CO2 storage, an emerging application as we see a global push toward greenhouse gas reduction and the potential to use captured CO2 as a future carbon source. Our distinct advantages position Sasol to unlock value and to grow as a solutions provider in our four business divisions. Our Essential Care Chemicals business is recognized as the global leading supplier of surfactants and intermediates in the fabric and home care market through the broadest alcohols portfolio in the world with feedstock optionality. Sasol also has an enhanced global footprint with significant investments in our value chain in Eurasia and America over the past few years.
Our Advanced Materials business has emerged as a partner of choice through our proprietary alumina technology and our ability to modify materials to customize solutions in a variety of industries. Our high-quality calcined coke is also recognized as a preferred source for battery materials, and our FT catalyst leadership is positioned to grow as Sasol pursues its PtX ambitions. The Performance Solutions business embodies the unique chemistry of Sasol's portfolio to provide custom solutions to our customers in applications as diverse as metalworking fluids and lubricants, performance additives, inks, paints, coatings, and adhesives, as well as a variety of industrial applications where our broad portfolio of alcohols, surfactants, waxes, comonomers, and solvents create opportunities for improved performance and more sustainable alternatives.
Our Base Chemicals business is the regional partner of choice within its primary footprint in South Africa, where our strong marketing and technical presence has a renewed emphasis on local beneficiation and support for development of manufacturing that will enable the Southern Africa economy to grow and develop needed sustainable solutions. With our unique portfolio, we are already a recognized solutions provider, this portfolio continues to open up a world of growth opportunities, which were further enhanced by our recent investments in China and the U.S. As a market-facing business, our portfolio creates synergies across our four business divisions with the breadth of our alcohols, customizable products, and FT know-how, creating commonality. Each business division has its own unique portfolio advantage and a strategic intent that is specific for each division.
For Essential Care Chemicals, we see steady growth in these markets and growth of the rising middle class around the world. Our unique alcohols and the future growth of renewables and the ability to create circular solutions are the innovation and sustainability focus that drives our customer-centric application developments. For Advanced Materials, we see the opportunity to accelerate high-margin growth by extending our specialty products into new markets as we innovate with customers on solutions for energy storage, mobility, and expanding our position in catalytic applications. For Performance Solutions, we target high-value growth as we develop custom solutions using our unique and broad portfolio of alcohols, surfactants, and FT products, which can allow us to work on key trends of high performance and reduced waste.
For Base Chemicals, we will continue to unlock value through our highly integrated and cost-competitive value chains with a focus on circularity, especially in the areas of plastic waste recycling and circular feedstocks. In terms of growth relevance, our main focus for investments will be to support the markets of Essential Care Chemicals, Advanced Materials, and Performance Solutions while we continue to work on growth with partnerships in Base Chemicals, as we have done with our explosives joint venture in Africa and our Base Chemicals joint venture in the U.S.A. We envision the ability of our business to generate substantial cash flows and growth opportunities to compete for capital allocation according to the criteria shared by Paul earlier. This implies the potential of the business to invest approximately $5 billion in the second half of this decade.
We believe that we have the potential to grow EBITDA by mid-single-digit percentage per year over the decade, and we aspire that our intended profit share % from these business divisions to be approximately 30/30/30/10 by the end of the decade, as we work to focus more on higher-margin specialty chemicals and custom solutions versus our existing portfolio, which is more heavily weighted towards Base Chemicals. As you've heard today, we have a strong foundation for growing chemicals with our unique chemistry. We have a well-invested global asset base, and we are focused on bringing LCCP to its full potential. We are already progressing our commitment to sustainability. We have initiated work across Europe and the U.S. toward our target to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 30% by 2030. Our focus does not end there. Our unique chemistry is already providing solutions to enable sustainability across the value chain.
Our growth strategy builds on our market-leading positions in Essential Care Chemicals and Advanced Materials with our specialty solutions derived from our world-leading alcohol surfactants and ethoxylates portfolio. Finally, as you can see from the examples I shared today, as well as the exciting opportunities to position our Lake Charles site for co-location and sustainability collaboration, we are well on our way to shifting towards high-margin specialty solutions. Thank you for listening. I will hand over now to Fleetwood for the closing.
Thank you, Brad. As I mentioned in my introduction, we have experienced turbulence in the past 12-24 months, thanks to our team's quick mobilization and the progress of our Sasol 2.0 transformation, we are now in a materially better position than we were a year ago. We have a strong foundation on which to build future Sasol and deliver our triple bottom line outcomes of people, planet, and profit. Today, we have announced our commitment to a net zero ambition by 2050 and a more ambitious greenhouse gas reduction target by 2030. Our plans to deliver on these 2030 targets leverage known solutions and technologies to decarbonize our current assets and can be delivered whilst preserving competitive and sustainable returns above our cost of capital. We are fully embracing the energy transition and will transition ourselves to a low-carbon world.
This we will deliver through pathways which provide optionality and with the can-do spirit embedded in our DNA. Using our advantage and differentiated FT technology, we will retrofit our existing plants in South Africa to maintain our position in existing markets and introduce new ones over time, such as green hydrogen and sustainable fuels and chemicals both for domestic and export markets. We will also be setting up a new business, Sasol ecoFT, with the intent to build on our technology leadership and to establish a significant market position internationally. Finally, pivoting our chemicals business to high-margin specialty solutions will improve our customer value proposition using our unique chemistry to co-create tailored solutions for our customers. To conclude today's presentation, why should you invest in Sasol? Firstly, Sasol has a unique portfolio of advantage assets leveraging differentiated technologies.
We have a leading position in South Africa with well-invested infrastructure that is highly cost competitive with value chain integration. We can also adapt that infrastructure to meet our new sustainability ambition by 2030 with modest capital using our well-tested technology. Our newly commissioned chemicals complex in Lake Charles is state-of-the-art with a clear pathway to ramp up to full profitability and a prime location with space that provides many opportunities for the long term. Our Ziegler and Guerbet alcohols are truly differentiated, and with the unprecedented breadth of our product range, we can provide a range of solutions to our customers as they adapt to evolving demand trends. Our FT technology can provide unique solutions to the problems the world is facing and so creates a number of pathways to exciting new long-term growth possibilities. Our international footprint provides global customers with both local and global solutions.
Second, we have clear plans to deliver both a steep change in GHG reduction and competitive, sustainable returns with a return on invested capital above 15% through this transition. As part of this, the Sasol 2.0 transformation is already well underway. The operating model has been reconfigured, we are already starting to see the benefits of a leaner cost structure and decisions being made closer to the customer. This gives us confidence that we are close to completing our objective of restoring the balance sheet with investment-grade credit metrics and fulfilling our commitment to restore and to step up of dividends. Finally, Sasol has fantastic potential for the long term, we are excited about the future ahead of us. We have already identified a number of viable pathways to get to a net zero by 2050, which also offers the prospect of attractive financial returns.
Future Sasol is not built on the promise of new businesses away from our core, builds on our advantage and differentiated FT technology, as well as today's strong customer relationships and market positions. We are best positioned to lead the development of the green hydrogen economy in Southern Africa and to bring FT to its full potential internationally to supply a unique product range of sustainable fuels and chemicals. We are inspired by the rapid progress that is being made across the world. For example, the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Earthshots Initiative includes a hydrogen shot that seeks to reduce the cost of clean hydrogen by 80% to $1/kg in one decade. This is part of a growing number of commitments globally.
Commitments that together give increasing plausibility to the viability of a global hydrogen economy that would be highly advantageous to the strategy we have put in play today. We hope that you are as excited as we are about what lies ahead of us. This concludes our presentation for today. I would like to thank you for tuning into our 2021 virtual Capital Markets Day event. I look forward to further engagement in our Q&A session, which will commence shortly.
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Good day, everyone, and welcome to this question and answer session for Sasol's Virtual Capital Markets Day. My name is Tiffany Sydow, and I'm the Vice President of Investor Relations at Sasol. Today, we are broadcasting live from Sasol Place, our global headquarters in Johannesburg, South Africa, where we are joined by Sasol's executive management team. I'm very excited to be one of your co-facilitators for today's engagement, together with my colleague, Elton.
Thank you, Tiffany, and hello, everyone. A warm welcome to all of you from my side as well. My name is Elton Fortuin, and I'm the Vice President for Communication and Brand Management at Sasol. I will be co-facilitating today's Q&A session with my colleague, Tiffany. As you just heard, we have all the members of Sasol's group executive committee with us who will be answering your questions for the next 90 minutes or so. Allow me to briefly introduce them to you. In the room with us, from my left, we have Paul Victor, Chief Financial Officer, Priscillah Mabelane, Executive Vice President, Energy, Fleetwood Grobler, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Marius Brand, Executive Vice President, Sasol 2.0 Transformation. Participating remotely, we have from Hamburg, Germany, Brad Griffith, our Executive Vice President for Chemicals.
Our other remote participants in South Africa are Charlotte Mokoena, Executive Vice President, Human Resources and Stakeholder Relations, Bernard Klingenberg, Executive Vice President, Energy Operations, and Vuyo Kahla , Executive Vice President, Strategy, Sustainability, and Integrated Services. We also have a few other specialist subject matter experts available should we require technical inputs on any of the questions we receive today. Before we kick off, let's talk you through how we will run today's Q&A session.
Thank you, Elton. While watching today's presentations, you would have seen a message pop up on the streaming platform announcing that the facility is open for posting questions. If you missed it, let me briefly explain where you can post your questions and comments. On the streaming platform, to the right of your screen, you will see a dialog box that allows you to type in your questions. Simply start typing in that field and click on the send button when you are done. You can repeat this process for all your questions. Today, we have set aside 90 minutes for the Q&A session, so we encourage you to post all your relevant questions.
That's right. Your questions will be received by our Capital Markets Day support team here in Johannesburg. This team is assisting us in sorting through all the questions that are posted so that related questions can be categorized and themed. This will help us in optimizing our time together so that we get through as many questions as possible in the time that we have available. If there are questions that we don't get to today, these will remain in our database, and the team will respond to them post today's live event. We also have the contact details for investor relations on our Capital Markets Day website, should you wish to contact the team directly. Tiffany and I will read out your questions for our panel members. Our CEO, Fleetwood Grobler, will assist in both answering the questions and allocating questions to the relevant members of his executive team.
With that, let's start with our first questions. Over to you, Tiffany.
Thank you, Elton. The first set of questions is around the climate change and environmental matters. I'll start with the first set of three questions for Fleetwood. First question, could we get some more detail on the 2030 emission plan? What is the shape of that decline curve? Are the costs back-ended, back-end loaded or earlier, and how much will it cost? This comes from Sriharsha Pappu at HSBC. The second question, please clarify the base years used for Scope 1, 2, and Scope 3 emissions, and if there is a difference, please explain why. That comes from Campbell Parry. The last question in this set, what is the plan for the SO2 abatement by 2025? From Adrian Hammond at Standard Bank.
Thank you so much, Tiffany, and thank you for those questions. Let's deal with them one by one. First of all, I will deal with the question from Harsha. Our emission plan is enabled through an investment through the period 2024 until 2030. That means there is a very clear roadmap. I would refer you to page 14 of our climate change report that was published today that clearly shows when the various levers that we're pursuing will be addressed and how that will play out. The first is, of course, energy and process efficiency, renewable energy, and preparing the plant to receive more gas.
The loading of that ZAR 15 billion-ZAR 25 billion that we've indicated that we will have to spend to enable this reduction target will play out through the period 2024 to 2026, 2027, with about 65% of the capital that will flow from the period 2026 onwards. I think that's how you need to think about the cash flow, but also how that loads out is very well depicted in our climate change report. With respect to your second question, Campbell, I think that is quite an interesting question because we've got two different years that we have used as baselines. For the Scope 1 and 2, why have we used 2017 as the baseline? If you would recall, 2017 was the year that Sasol had a very good run rate of our facilities in South Africa.
We, that year, produced around 7.8 million tons, because of that high output, and with the associated high emission footprint, we used that as the base year because that is giving us a very appropriate base year to say we worked from as it was one of the higher ones. Secondly, in terms of our Scope 3 emissions. By 2017, we didn't have all the elements of the Scope 3 emissions of our energy business yet fully defined and reported.
We have, through the period 2018 and 2019, gotten to a point where we've got a more solid base for our energy business Scope 3 emissions, and that's why we have used that year, because it gives you a more appropriate year to work from because of not all elements being defined in the prior years. I think that addresses that question. Adrian, the question with respect to the SO2 abatement, what we have indicated also at the year results in August is that the standards have been promulgated by March last year. We have gotten our teams to get going on the technical solutions around that regulated emission standard. We are currently busy looking at more than one technology option.
One of those options involve both SO2 and greenhouse gas reductions, we are engaging with the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment to work through those options. I think we would be ready to communicate to the market by early next year, in principle, how that will play out and what are our approach with respect to the SO2 abatement.
Thank you for those answers, Fleetwood. I'll move on to the next set of questions, which are around Sasol's portfolio. The first question: Does Lyondell have preemptive rights on your LCCP stake, and would you consider selling? Conversely, would you look to buy back the stake sold to Lyondell? That comes from Abdul Davids at Camissa. The next question in Sasol portfolio: What type of projects are envisaged for the $5 billion growth CapEx by 2030? That's from [Thobela Bita].
Thank you, Elton. I'm going to deal with the first question. I'm going to ask that Paul deals with the question from [Thobela]. With respect to our Lyondell LCCP LIP JV, as I have given feedback to the market when we announced this deal, there are no preemptive rights by either LyondellBasell or Sasol. It will be based on a willing buyer, willing seller principle at fair value determined by an independent third party. We've also agreed that the partners would get maximum potential out of this joint venture in the first two years of operation and will not pursue any further dilution of shareholding during that period.
I think we are very well aligned with that and the partners are aligned to continue to maximize the ramp-up of that asset, and only beyond two years we will then pursue on a fair evaluation in a willing buyer, willing seller principle to divest the latter part or the rest of the 50% that we currently own.
[Thobela], thank you very much for your question. Maybe just to put the growth cost of capital projects into context, remember we said the first order of allocation is the sustenance capital and maintain capital and the transition capital. We've given you a sense of, based on our modeling, how much capital can be available based on our scenarios. We will obviously look at the $5 billion because it can be higher or lower depending on how macroeconomics plays out and how well the company performs. Effectively, in terms of our capital allocation, when you start to focus then on second order, meaning that you've already then serviced your maintained capital, you already service your dividend, then this is really kind of the capital available to channel into growth opportunities. If growth opportunities are then what you select to invest in.
The three options that we have is effectively investing in our Energy Business, investing in the Chemicals Business, and investing in Sasol ecoFT. What we will try to do in allocating the $5 billion is, first of all, having projects that effectively compete against each other at the highest possible rate of return, at the lowest possible risk, and also projects that's typically supporting the long-term strategy of the company in terms of our decarbonization efforts, but also in terms of driving sustainability in the greener future. What we will do effectively is making sure that all the businesses do present the investment committee with their relevant projects that meets these criteria, and then we will need to kind of shape the portfolio so that it is balanced from a risk, geography, and a sector perspective.
I think it will be not good for me to give you the details of those projects as the teams are working up those projects. Safe to say, however, if you just go back in terms of what Brad mentioned in terms of the various areas that we're going to talk, all of those projects will be the projects that we typically will look at, consider, weigh up against each other, and effectively allocate capital that gives the company the best opportunity at the lowest possible risk to yield the best returns for shareholders. More will actually be announced in time. Thank you.
Thank you, Paul. The next set of questions is around our new business, which was launched today, Sasol ecoFT. I will start with the first two questions. What sort of interest have you had, if any, in your FT as a service offering from Campbell Parry? The second question in this theme is, upside from aviation fuels looks exciting. Can you perhaps share financials on Sasol's current SAF exposure and future potential so we can quantify the upside? That comes from Andrew Snowdowne at Sanlam.
Thank you, Tiffany. I am going to address the first question that Campbell asked, then I am going to ask Marius to weigh in on the question two and three that you've asked. Let us just reflect a bit on the interest that we've had on ecoFT. I must say that there was substantial interest over the last months as we started to align our focus and make it known. We've announced the partnership with Haldor Topsoe that focus on sustainable fuels and chemicals recently. I believe as a result of today, with the formal announcement of this new business unit and the focus on that, I expect substantially more interest that will be coming in from the market. With that in mind, I would think that we ain't seen nothing yet. There's much more interest coming.
Thank you, Fleetwood. If I turn to the question of Andrew. Currently, we don't produce any SAF. We do produce synthetic fuels and synthetic aviation fuels that we are supplying to the South African airport just in Johannesburg. If we look at the future and take ourselves to 2050, with a world demand of 7 million bbl/day- 8 million bbl/day requirement, and 50% of that being required for SAF, you can see that the opportunity is immense. Currently, obviously, the cost to produce that is higher than fossil jet fuel costs, but we see that cost curve come down significantly, and there is the opportunity that we will pursue. From a financial point of view, we see that post 2030, 2035, that that financial contribution and value pool to Sasol will be quite significant.
Thank you, Marius. The last question in this theme. Your PtX for SAF strategy is conditional on significant future cost reduction. What confidence or evidence do you have to support such cost reduction? From [Alexander Vagensky].
Alexander, I think that's a very key question. What we need to get the cost of hydrogen down. The major cost drivers for green hydrogen is basically the renewable energy cost as well as the capital cost of the electrolyzer. We are talking about certain signposts that will really enable our strategy to implement the measures to get to net zero. In this case, let me cite three data points that would reference when that will happen. It's not on a time basis, but on a cost basis. Today, electrolyzers cost of a typical PEM electrolyzer is around $1,100.kWh . If that comes down to around $500 /kWh and renewable energy cost approaches $2 /MWh installed, as well as the load factor of your renewables fluctuate between 30% and 50%, then you start reaching below the $2/ kg level.
Those are key signposts that we would monitor, and I believe that would be if I look at the reports that's coming in, the assessment is that by 2030, we would be in the realms of realizing this $2/kg o r lower per kilogram. I've mentioned in my closing remarks today, I'm very encouraged to see, for example, the Department of Energy, the Hydrogen Shot to seek to get to $1/kg in one decade, to get the production cost down of $1 per kilogram green hydrogen. I've also seen very recently the announcement of Mr. Bill Gates and his associates that look at Breakthrough Energy Catalyst program, where they're focusing on green hydrogen, SAF, DAC, and battery, and they put $1 billion behind that.
All of these data points seems to indicate that these outcomes is going to happen perhaps much sooner than we generally, at this point, think. Our thinking is definitely that it's going to happen beyond 2030, but we may be proven wrong.
Thank you for those answers, Fleetwood and Marius. I'll move on to the next set of questions, and this relates to gas. How do LNG import costs compare with current coal feedstock costs? How might that evolve in the coming years as your sources of gas change? Those questions come from both Adrian Hammond at Standard Bank and Stella Cridge at Barclays. The next question under the gas theme, when might details on the international partner and LNG gas line be available? That is from [Anthony Walker at Prudential]. The last question under the gas theme, is there enough pipeline capacity for the additional gas or is further investment required? Who is funding the LNG infrastructure? Is it Sasol or third party, and has construction begun? That is from Herbert Kharivhe at Investec.
Thank you, Elton. Then I'm going to address the first question that Adrian asked, then I'm going to refer questions two, three to Priscillah to weigh in on those questions. When we did our modeling, of course, we've got extensive robust economics when we modeled the cost of LNG versus coal, et cetera. I think it's not in our interest to divulge what actual cost we are modeled or what we are looking because that's sensitive commercial discussions. Also, we have to land the LNG. I'm not going to go into that type of detail, but suffice to say is that we all know that at a cost of a ton of coal produced and the synthesis gas that is commensurate with that ton of coal versus a petajoule of LNG, there is a price difference.
LNG is more dearer, Rest assured, we have done robust modeling to determine a wide spread of various price sets, and that is what we have reported today for the return of investment is the outcome of those input costs that we've robustly modeled.
Thanks, Fleetwood, and thanks to you, Anthony, as well. In terms of the first question around when do we get to update the market on the international partnerships, I just want to highlight that we're actually, first of all, looking at two sources of LNG importation, both Matola as well as Richards Bay in Southern Africa or South Africa. To that end, we are quite advanced in terms of Matola, in terms of negotiations with our international partners. We expect them to probably take FID, depending on how the negotiations will go in due course. Our estimation is sometime next year, as we get to the closure of our financial results, we'll give an indication of where we are in terms of those commercial negotiations. In terms of Richards Bay, this is going to take a while.
We're working jointly with the Central Energy Fund as well as government to see whether we can accelerate the developments in terms of that. I just want to reiterate again, we need the two supply options for South Africa in terms of security of supply, Also to give us optionality and flexibility for LNG importation. On the third question, if I follow through that in terms of the question from Herbert, we are discussing with partners, as I've already indicated, Sasol is not intending to take any investment in terms of any of our infrastructure going forward. However, in terms of our existing ROMPCO Pipeline, we've got capacity to take up to 40 PJ additional to what we have, Anything above that will probably require some modification. You'll see earlier on we spoke about 40 PJ - 60 PJ.
We believe that the CapEx required will be very modest in terms of the total cost.
Thank you, Priscillah. The next theme of questions is around our financial targets, which Paul has disclosed earlier today. I'll run through two at a time, to give Fleetwood and Paul a chance to respond. The first question comes from Wade Napier at Avior. The group is targeting greater than 15% return on invested capital to 2030. Is the 15% ROIC target also applicable for post-2030? The second question comes from [Chris Nicholson] at RMB Morgan Stanley. What cost of capital or hurdle rate does Sasol use to assess the investment required on the 2030 to 2050 timeframe? Should the hurdle rate be higher where tech is unproven?
Thank you very much for those questions. Wade, let me deal with your question first. We have, and I think I've said it in the presentation, that it's for us at best at this point in time to provide clarity with regards to our ROIC targets until 2030. The world is moving, the world is quite dynamic, and we have to from time to time, as we update the capital markets information, come back to you in terms of the progress that we're making in achieving these ROIC objectives up till 2030. Beyond 2030, and it really comes to the latter questions, is we more view it from the perspective to say what type of investments can we afford in terms of our capital allocation approach and framework. Also, what can our balance sheet afford?
What is our appetite on risk, and how do we want to play and win in terms of the capital available and the returns and the cash flows and where we want to invest? A lot more work needs to happen, in terms of exactly how we're going to patch everything together in terms of projects, opportunities, risk profiles, and areas to invest and sectors to invest. It will be very difficult for us to venture in giving you any targets beyond 2030 at this point in time. Hopefully, you can appreciate that. However, safe to say that we will say that all projects that we invest in that is in pursuit of growing the company other than the maintained capital needs to meet and beat the weighted average cost of capital, considering the risk that is associated with a specific project.
I think in time we will update our ROIC objectives after that, but I think at this point in time, we are more inclined to say that we have very specific investment criteria with regards to projects, especially those that will go live beyond 2030. When it comes to the second question, Chris, in terms of the cost of capital and the hurdle rates, especially for these projects beyond 2030, the way that we look at weighted average cost of capital is to take the beta of the company obviously into account, which is very much the country risk and the sector or the industry risk in which we operate. Those really make up the beta, we need to make sure that as a minimum, we overachieve on that.
When one allocate the capital and consider the individual projects, the risk associated with a specific project will then effectively need to be reflected in the cash flows of that specific project in doing your NPVs. You're 100% right. In terms of projects that has greenfield technology, the risk associated with that in your cash flows will obviously be higher, unless you have a very strong way of mitigating it, versus projects that's plug and play, that's more utility based. The technology is proven, you can operate it at scale, those kind of risk factors that find its way into the cash flows is obviously lower compared to the greenfields risk projects.
That's the way that we look at it and the way that we'll evaluate the projects on NPV and in terms of the various sectors in our business, in terms of the portfolios, where to allocate the capital to.
Thank you, Paul. There are two more questions in this section. Please expand on how you intend to drive cash break-even from $40/bbl to $30/bbl-$35 /bbl by 2030, from Adrian Hammond at Standard Bank. The last question in this section, what assumptions have you made for carbon taxes?
Two good questions. In terms of the how do we drive our cash break-evens lower, I think safe to say, and Priscillah can also weigh in on that because a big component of that lies in the energy and integrated chemical space in Southern Africa. Ultimately, Sasol 2.0 will fundamentally contribute significantly to our cash break-evens on the South African integrated value chain. In terms of the specific initiatives that I've highlighted, such as the reorganization of the business, such as driving supply chain efficiency, making sure that we improve our margin exposure, and really focus on high-yielding our margin offering, especially on the South African value chain, are only some examples of what Sasol 2.0 will deliver, and hence, in fact, contribute to the significant reduction in the cash break-even.
Safe to say that by 2025, in that range of $30/bbl-$35/bbl, we do expect to be at the lower end of the $30/bbl-$35/bbl. Then in terms of the period 2025 to 2030, effectively, as you introduce higher feedstock, such as gas relative to coal, it will ultimately start to increase your development in terms of that range of $30/bbl-$35/bbl. However, we do believe that looking at the cost pressures in terms of higher feedstock costs and carbon taxes which we've taken into account, we do believe that ultimately, the mitigating factors such as further optimizing costs and efficiencies, as Priscillah also highlighted in her presentation, will allow us to keep that cost at bay.
I think it's very important that we also manage the capital, the maintenance capital, within that ZAR 20 billion-ZAR 25 billion range, because that also effectively contribute quite significantly to us holding the $30/bbl-$35/bbl range. Priscillah, anything to add?
I think you've covered it all, Paul. Thank you. Just one area that I want to highlight is in terms of our efficiency drives. As part of our decarbonization agenda, earlier on I've mentioned that we'll be reducing or shifting towards renewables. That will also come with electricity cost reductions, which will contribute to our efficiencies. Furthermore, Bennett and I are working with the team to ensure that we are driving reliability of our assets and optimizing that, and we're also deploying digitalization as well.
On the second question, in terms of assumptions that we've made on carbon tax, Adrian, I think we have shared, in the past, our stance in terms of our assumptions. At this point in time, there's no clear guidance, in South Africa, in terms of what the carbon tax effectively pricing will play out beyond financial year 2022. Hence, we did take the assumption to say, what do we believe is the South African carbon exposure in terms of carbon budget? What is our deduction in terms of our carbon profile in terms of that? What do we believe are the different projects that can create incentives for us or drive efficiency? All of that, we effectively have taken into account in assessing the performance against the budget trajectory, the carbon trajectory for South Africa.
Safe to say that the carbon tax that we effectively pay today, which is around about ZAR 1 billion pre-tax and ZAR 700 million post-tax, we do see post-2022, financial 2022, that there will be a much steeper increase in the cash flows associated with the carbon taxes. What it will be, I think we still need to wait in terms of government to give us that clarity. We do believe our NPVs and our cash flows sufficiently caters for our interpretation of the carbon taxes, given all these facts into account, or take these facts into account. Thank you.
Thank you for those responses, Paul and Priscillah. We'll move on to the next set of questions, and these relate to balance sheet. Would you please confirm the triggers for a dividend? What are the metrics to track? Should the current environment persist, can we expect a dividend in FY 2022? I'll also ask the next question, rather. Could we also expect some comments on how you are thinking about a financial framework for transition? What's the hurdle rate for decarbonization investments? Apologies, let me just confirm who's asking those questions. On the first question regarding dividend, that's from Herbert Kharivhe at Investec. On the second question about the financial framework, that is Sriharsha Pappu at HSBC.
Good day, Herbie. I think we have indicated in the presentation that for the first payout, the 36% of core headline earnings per share, we will effectively focus on two triggers. The first trigger will be the net debt to EBITDA, and there we will effectively work on a ratio of 1.5x and lower. The second measure that we've introduced, which is different to what we had in the past, we also introduced an absolute debt level which we want to achieve. Both triggers effectively will trigger the board's consideration for a potential dividend payout. The absolute debt level needs to be excluding the lease liabilities, because we don't include those in that assumption. That needs to be lesser than $5 billion. Effectively, once we achieve those two targets, we will make a recommendation to the board.
As I've mentioned earlier in my presentation, the board will then consider the prevailing market circumstances and also assess whether we can actually pay the dividend on a sustainable basis going forward, given the fact that we have achieved those two specific triggers. In terms of progress, we are making good progress. At year-end, we did give you indication that we have dipped below $6 billion, and we've already achieved 1.5x net debt to EBITDA. Ultimately, where oil price sits currently and the cash flow generating ability of the company, as well as the tail end of the asset disposals that still must be completed, we do believe that there will be a strong downward pressure, and that will be a positive downward pressure on our absolute debt levels.
We are quite hopeful that hopefully this year or soon thereafter, we can achieve $5 billion and lower and keep the 1.5x net debt to EBITDA. As I've said, it's not a foregone conclusion that if you achieve those triggers, that the board automatically approve the dividend. They will need to consider the market circumstances. In a perfect world, if oil prices do hold up, and there is a positive expectation of where macros may play out in future, I think the board will consider the dividend favorably, given the combination of those circumstances. I think, Herbie, what's also quite important is that the hedging policy, and our approach to hedging still continues, because hedging just gives the board much more confidence that the downside is protected, and once introducing the dividend, that it actually makes good sense because there's a floor protection for it.
Our thinking is very much along those lines, but so far so good. We're making good progress, and hopefully we can continue that and have a positive conversation on the dividend later during the year. On the second question, Hasha, in terms of how do we really think about the financial framework in terms of the transition, quite importantly, as I've mentioned earlier, the transition capital to get to 30% is part of the first order of allocation. Before we pay the dividend, we have to make sure that that ZAR 15 billion-ZAR 25 billion effectively gets serviced, that it's part of our plans, and that capital gets allocated to that first. Obviously, immediately thereafter, the dividend needs to be taken into account.
The rest of the projects, which are then referred to as growth projects, with the intention of decarbonization of the future, is very much aligned to the previous question I answered to Chris that says that we will consider the beta of the company in terms of cost of capital. We will effectively consider the various risk elements associated with the project and what that does to the NPVs. I will say that we are not going to follow a vanilla approach on all projects. We specifically will focus on projects to overachieve WACC, but projects that do cover a lower risk, in terms of the NPVs, those projects will be evaluated at probably a lower risk criteria compared to greenfields projects that effectively carries a higher risk.
At the end of the day, it's also about balance and balancing the portfolio within the sectors in which we operate.
Thank you for those responses, Paul. I'll deal with the next two questions under the theme of balance sheet. Please rank the capital requirements as according to the following. The 2030 energy transition CapEx of between ZAR 10 billion to ZAR 15 billion, dividends, Specialty Chemicals growth, the ZAR 5 billion, and then entering green H2 production and LNG, and that's from [Thobela Bita]. The next question, also from [Thobela], does the ZAR 10 billion to ZAR 15 billion of transformation CapEx include bringing in LNG to South Africa?
Thank you very much for those questions. Maybe just on a point of correction, the transition capital is not ZAR 10 billion-ZAR 15 billion, it's ZAR 15 billion-ZAR 25 billion. I think we've been quite clear about setting that out for you. That's just on a point of correction. In terms of the ranking of the capital, as we also gave the kind of explanation in the capital allocation framework, it's maintained capital as well as transition capital. That comes first. We have given you the indication that our assessment is that that will be between ZAR 20 billion and ZAR 25 billion per annum from now onwards to 2030. We also believe that that is needed to actually keep the company going in meeting its energy and sustainability objectives, but also making sure that it delivers a certain rate of return for us.
We're quite comfortable that capital must go there first. Then the second order of capital allocation is the dividend, the minimum dividend payout, the 36% of core headline earnings per share. When you then step the dividend up relative to growth, that's kind of where you get into the second order of allocation. I must say, to step up the dividend to 40% payout is not a big amount of capital, and I think if we are cash flush in the organization, and we don't have such a kind of overexerted portfolio, that ultimately, stepping up that dividend to 40% should be a relatively easy conversation and decision. Once you've done your dividend, then effectively your growth projects needs to be considered. Also, buybacks and other special dividends.
Let's say in this argument, we can consider when we look at the projects, that the projects outweigh the benefits of, let's say, a buyback option on your shares. Your specialty chemical growth in the way that you explained it here, as well as your green hydrogen, will also kind of be part of that. LNG is part of the transition capital, as Priscillah explained. We don't plan to invest in LNG ourselves, but we do will be a taker of LNG in terms of pricing. We don't envisage a big amount of capital, but the small amount of capital that is then associated with LNG, and then the respective infrastructure build-out to link up to our pipeline infrastructure, that is part of the transition capital, and we have allowed for that. Hopefully that answers both questions that's been posed. Thank you.
Thank you, Paul. We'll now transition to the questions around the energy business theme. Can you give us a preliminary idea of how the Synfuels facility needs to change in order to transition to 100% green hydrogen, and what will it cost? That's from Gerhard Engelbrecht at Absa. The second question in the same category, what are the key risks to successful development of a hydrogen economy in South Africa, from [Michelle Emeran]?
Thank you for those two questions. I will deal with the first question and ask that Priscillah weigh in on the second question. Gerhard, in terms of our thinking with respect to Secunda and the transformation, I would like to just start off by saying that from a shareholder's point of view, we want to deliver optimal value in the decision-making and pathways as we deliver the outcome of a net zero target by 2050. On the one hand, you can imagine there's an option or a pathway to say, "Just run Secunda down and close it." On the other hand, it is go big bang and just introduce sustainable green hydrogen and carbon capture sustainable carbon. Those are the two, I would say, walls of the room. We need to operate for the optimal shareholder value in between.
How do we think about what are those pathways? First of all, I think let's talk first about leveling the playing field that we're on. If we take the invested plants and the products that we produce in our Secunda operations, if you want to compare that the playing field is level, and you would say, how would another competitor or peer match up to produce 7 million tons of sustainable products starting from a level playing field? First of all, if I take a proxy of Methanol-to-Olefins to develop 7 million tons of Methanol-to-Olefins, also using renewable energy, talking to my level playing field, that investment will be anything between $20 billion-$30 billion. In Sasol's case, we don't need to make that investment because the kit is already there to produce products.
I think that's an important reference point. The other one, with the studies that's been recently done in South Africa by the NBI for a net zero pathway of the country, IHS has also come up with a particular outcome to say that Sasol, because of our existing kit, we've got around a $200 per ton advantage to produce, for example, sustainable aviation fuels. Again, it is talking to the existing kit that can just be retrofitted. The other metric that I would like just to position, Gerhard, and you know our synfuels operations very well. About at least 60% of the cost sits in the mining gas preparation Rectisol up till the gas circuit. If we go in the full-fledged outcome of a sustainable green hydrogen and carbon capture, you don't have that cost burden.
That could be anything towards $1.3 billion-$1.5+ billion per annum that you have available then to invest into preparing for example, Direct Air Capture, et cetera. That is a number that is going to be tangibly helping us to make the transition into renewables and sustainable fuels. The other part is that we've got a very flexible setup in Secunda. Remember, we've got two factories, we've got four phases, we can basically go 25%, 50%, 75%, 100% over time. Those pathways are really very interesting for us because it gives us optionality of how to introduce it, and you can run concurrently. For example, sustainable feedstock with fossil feedstock, you can think about all the combinations that you can manage that.
Last but not least, in this way of that we think at the moment, we don't need a Sasol to invest in that full amount over time. I think the proof point is already we will be introducing 1,200 MW of renewables without investing in wind turbines and solar panels to achieve that. As we go through this transformation to net zero, we don't necessarily have to invest ourself in that type of kit. What we do find interesting is the integrated value chain from renewables to the hydrogen, to the conversion in Fischer-Tropsch to the end product. In that combination, we believe that partnerships will be a key element to mitigate risk and to mitigate capital spend. We believe that in that pathway, there's also factors that we haven't even considered yet, is the credits by taking carbon out of the air.
Will that help us to fund some of these investments? The others are product premiums. Are they product premiums that will be paid because we are one of the few industries that can produce sustainable fuels and sustainable chemicals? All of those factors play in to make these pathways that we've talked about really viable because the optionalities, the incremental investment to get to that point, the flexibility of our operations, the kit that is already there in Secunda, well-invested utilities, infrastructure, et cetera, is already there. We don't need to invest, and I've seen some mooted values of between $40 billion and $50 billion . If that is the amount, we have not done that assessment in terms of the exact capital required to do that. All I can say, that definitely we don't need to invest in that full amount.
It will be in partnership to get that calibrated to the right size risk-reward for us to go through this pathway. I think that's just some thoughts, these points that I made, to give you a reference how we think about that and how do we see that pathway to 100%.
Thanks, Fleetwood. Mich, a very good question. One of the things that we're looking at is that we believe that there are basically the two pillars to the hydrogen economy in Southern Africa, and I'll go beyond Southern Africa because we're looking at the region. The first part is how do we stimulate the local market? As we all know, at this stage, and Fleetwood has touched on that as well, the current cost of sustainable products is quite expensive. It's important that the learning curves start to drive the cost down. That's one of the critical risk and the signposts that we'll be watching. The second element of that is that we need to have an enabling regulatory framework.
During my presentation earlier, and also Fleetwood alluded to this, we have actually been working very closely with government, and we are participating in a number of forums that government has created to ensure that we can actually develop the necessary strategy in terms of hydrogen strategy, as well as a roadmap to enable South Africa to accelerate and take advantage of these changes, particularly given the opportunities we have with regard to renewables as well as our proprietary technology, FT, that we've mentioned several times today. That's the one part that is quite critical. The second element of that is how do we work with our customers, particularly commercial transportation and mining sector, as well as in steel, et cetera, the hard-to-abate industries, to ensure that we can start running some pilot tests to drive the incubation as well as to drive the demand going forward.
At the same level, we're also working with a number of OEMs to ensure that we can get the right technologies and start to test that going forward. If I shift towards what does it mean for the export market, which we do believe that there is a huge opportunity for the region. The biggest risk that we see there is that all of these are likely to be greenfield developments, and as we all understand, that greenfields are quite complex, starting from the end-to-end of the entire chain. How are we going to manage this from the pre-feasibility, the feasibility, the development, and the operations? The great thing is that Sasol brings in that experience of running very complex businesses, as well as developing those complex projects and bringing a number of partners.
We do recognize that we don't necessarily have to build capability across the entire ecosystem. We'll be bringing a number of partners. We've demonstrated that in all our projects in the past. We are quite advanced in some areas in negotiations and discussions with partners to be able to enable that. There are other complexities from a regulatory perspective, such as environmental, that we need to manage appropriately, working with stakeholders and communities. All of those are well outlined, and we've got a very comprehensive plan and program to address all of those issues going forward. At the end of the day, it's going to be, can we be competitive as a region to some of the other emerging markets such as Chile and Australia? Thank you.
Thank you, Priscillah. There are a few more questions on the energy business. The next question comes from Chris Nicholson at RMB: Please elaborate on how you will maintain return on invested capital through to 2030 at FY 2025 levels. How can this be, given the carbon tax challenge and more expensive gas feedstock, and what further savings are required? The next question: Can you please tell us more about the carbon captured feedstock? Are there any pilot projects in test, and can you tell us more about the specific technology? From [Anthony Walker at Prudential].
Thank you, Tiffany. I will deal with the question from Anthony with respect to the carbon captured feedstock. Very interesting developments there. I may ask Marius also to weigh in on that specific thing, because we've been engaging over the past month or so with some of those vendors that's busy with carbon capture. Nonetheless, with respect to your first question, I'm going to ask Priscillah and Paul to weigh in on that.
Thanks, Fleetwood. Paul, you can add as well. As Paul indicated earlier on, in terms of our modeling and the assumptions we've used, they're quite conservative. Let's just take an example. In terms of carbon tax, we've actually looked at the NDC, which has now been issued, and we were quite impressed to see that our GHG reduction target puts us at the top end of that NDC. Our expectation is that our modeling has actually been run on extremely conservative approaches, because we've actually assumed that we'll probably keep below the budget, but at that stage, assuming a very aggressive reduction against the NDC. From that perspective, we do believe that our modeling and the ROIC that we are showing is quite reasonable and can be achieved.
Secondly, in terms of gas feedstock, Paul has also mentioned as well. We've really run different scenarios, and our base scenario also, again, use very, very high assumptions around gas and testing it against different macros. Our expectation as well is that we should actually deliver better value than what we've modeled. At this stage, we can't really disclose because all of these are still very much subject to commercial terms and very sensitive. Overall, we have also continued to identify efficiency drives beyond the Sasol 2.0 cost efficiencies we've outlined, and we are tirelessly working towards that. We've demonstrated beyond just the transformation of the organization in terms of workforce reduction, that we can actually deliver sustainable efficiencies. Paul, do you want to add?
Priscillah, I think you said it all. Maybe a couple of touch points is that there's a strong drive in the energy business to ensure, and just remember, the ROIC is affected on the earnings side that we do want to be much more aggressive on the retail side in driving our mobility business. We do know that given our product offering, we can actually demand a much higher margin in that type of business, and Priscillah also highlighted that in her presentation.
We believe that there's much more value there to capture, and ultimately channel much more gross margin into that business, and ultimately gives you a good foundation on the ROIC. The fact that we can actually hold our sustenance capital within that band, and also conforming to the 30% target is also, I think, quite positive. Then, as Priscillah also said, I think as you think about 2025 to 2030, it's going to be much less coal, and we are introducing gas.
You have to then weigh up that I'm paying more for gas. What is the knock-on impact of paying less or in terms of taking in less coal? We've done those assessments, and effectively, a combination of much driving higher margins, holding your sustenance capital and as Priscillah says, conservative assumptions in what we believe the net is on gas versus coal. We do believe that those targets are very much achievable on ROIC.
Let me deal with the question of Anthony. The term that we generally use in the industry is DAC . We should not confuse this with Carbon Capture and Sequestration, which is also a technology that has been practiced. To capture the CO2, to sequester it, the U.S. is an excellent example where there are pipelines of CO2 that has then been dealt with, and it is sent into wells or back into reservoirs where it is kept forever and a day. That is a source of CO2 as a carbon source for us. DAC specifically is Direct Air Capture of CO2, and we believe that is a technology that would be useful to see the development as that comes down the learning curve of cost.
We believe if DAC becomes cost affordable around $200 / ton, that would be very interesting for us, both in Sasol ecoFT as well as our current Synfuels operations. That is really a technology that we believe will hold the promise to decarbonize fully over time. I will defer to Marius for our recent engagement with some of these vendors.
Thank you, Fleetwood. Specifically, there's a couple of large emerging suppliers in this environment. These suppliers have in recent time, one of them have just launched a pilot project, which in the order of about 4,000 tons per annum of CO2 will be extracted. They will be using a dry amine solution to extract that CO2. As Fleetwood has said, that cost will now start to come down. It's also dependent on renewable energy pricing being more favorable into the future. I think this is not the only company that is doing that. There's a number of others, and we will be engaging with those also in due course to complement Sasol ecoFT, I think also very important for the South African solutions that we are pursuing in this regard. In the meantime, as we are looking at Sasol ecoFT opportunities, we are obviously looking at biomass.
We are also looking at unavoidable CO2 sources to bridge that gap almost until we see that cost curve for Direct Air Capture to come down to, as Fleetwood indicated, below the $200 / ton. I think very exciting spaces to look forward to, and I think we believe a real opportunity for Sasol to be engaged with.
Just as a reference, Marius, to add perhaps that in the energy business, our carbon need is around 2 million tons of CO2. If we can get that captured through this technology and we can get the 2 million tons of green hydrogen, then we've got all the feedstock we need to replace all the gas and coal that we do today. It just gives you a sense of how much CO2 through the DAC process and how much hydrogen green we need to replace all feedstock that we use today.
Okay, thank you for those answers from the panel. We'll move on to chemicals as our next theme. The first question from chemicals, and this is from Herbert Kharivhe. What is the status of the U.S. business after Hurricane Ida? Is it business as usual? I'll ask the second question under this theme as well, and that's from Sashank Lanka at BofA. Chemicals Africa returns are going down due to higher priced gas feedstock. What is the longer-term outlook and strategy for this segment? The third question under the theme of chemicals is from Simon van Renssen. Should Sasol not pursue the recycling of segregated plastics waste, specifically in Southern Africa?
Thank you, Elton. I'm going to ask Brad to weigh in on these three questions. Brad?
Thank you. Thank you for the questions. First, going to the question around Lake Charles and Hurricane Ida. We were very fortunate for our Lake Charles site to be west of the track of Hurricane Ida. It unfortunately went into the area around New Orleans, Baton Rouge area. Our facilities were unaffected, and we've not really seen any impacts to our business from this year's storm situations.
In terms of your questions, Sashank, thank you for the question on the Chemicals Africa returns. I think what you heard Paul indicate was that we built in a fairly conservative price deck in terms of evaluating the impact of the ROIC on the Chemicals Africa. Really, as we make that energy transition and the transformation of our business in Southern Africa, we will be looking at the price premiums that can be achieved through more sustainable chemicals, as well as understanding our cost competitiveness, the asset reviews, the things that we normally do to be able to pursue cost and capital reduction efforts, as you also heard Priscillah commenting on for our energy operations. I think that's important to understand the context of that, and we'll update that as our plans progress further. Thank you, Simon, for the question around plastic waste.
It's an important element for Sasol's plans in Southern Africa and also for the plastics industry. You're probably aware that South Africa has Waste Management Act, which has recently been put forward with updates on aspirational targets, and we certainly are participating in that as part of our industry associations and also work that we're doing on plastic waste recycling demonstration projects and also helping with the segregation of waste. It's absolutely a priority. We also see the opportunity to pursue the potential for chemical recycling of those wastes as they've been segregated that can create feedstocks, as I referenced in my presentation. We absolutely see that as an imperative for the country and for the region, and also as an opportunity. Thank you.
Thank you, Brad. Moving back, there was another question on the gas opportunity. I'll then move to some more general questions which are coming in from the portal. On gas, the question comes from both Adrian Hammond at Standard Bank and Stella Cridge at Barclays. How does LNG imports compare with the current coal feedstock cost, and how might that evolve in the coming years as your sources of gas change? I think let's deal with that question first, Fleetwood.
Thank you, Tiffany. I think we've started off with that question in terms of how it compares, and I've given our view on that and how we have modeled that. I'm not going to repeat that answer. What we do believe is that in the long term, the cost of gas, it is like the view on oil price and the linkages with oil. When we look at the real $55 oil world, we believe that that is also the commensurate tight gas world going forward. I think your crystal ball is as good as ours to say how would that change in the coming years. All we know is that the world is volatile. Prices go up. We've seen the recent spike of gas being used in Europe and other areas. We believe those are the volatility of the market that we live in.
As oil price a year ago was also approaching zero and rebounded back within 12 -1 8 months to where we are today, those would be also foreseen within the gas price markets. We do believe that the outlook that we've got tied to the oil price is robust in the world of decarbonization going forward.
Thank you, Fleetwood. Another question from Wade Napier. Did any of your scenario analysis trigger an outcome where Sasol would need to walk away from Secunda? A second question along the similar theme, have you assessed the competitiveness of FT versus other technologies to produce sustainable fuels as you venture into Sasol ecoFT? That comes from Gretchen Rudolph at ABN AMRO Bank.
Thank you. I would deal with the first question. I'm going to defer to Paul, actually, on the scenario analysis with respect to Secunda. All I can say that I've already mentioned is that when we look at the asset value to be used in terms of an optimal shareholder outcome, we believe there's still a lot of value in Secunda, but I'm going to ask Paul to weigh in as well.
Thank you, Fleetwood, and thanks, Wade, for the question. From a scenario analysis perspective, one needs to look at the breadth of options in Secunda. Of course, a turn down option from a scenario planning perspective, you have to consider because you need to look at your other scenarios and say, as you start to allocate capital, does it actually make sense for a shareholder? Do you actually grow value by allocating capital in a sense that it meet and beats the turn down option? Definitely in terms of scenarios, we've looked at the whole breadth of scenarios. We've discussed those with the board.
I think what really helps you, Wade, is it gives you a sense of what is needed and what proof points you need to achieve in order for you to sanction projects in order for them to add value and for them to be part of the longevity and sustainability roadmap and framework for Secunda. We are very clear about kind of what the ebbs and the flows of those are. As Fleetwood said, that really informed our thinking of the art of the possible and can we actually convert Secunda in a very values-driven way for shareholders and stakeholders. We do believe that to be the case. Obviously much more work needs to happen in the years to come. This will not be the last time that we will be discussing our options, the scenarios, and how the world around us change.
We do believe that the opportunities really outweighs the risk at this point in time. On the second question, Gretchen, there are two lenses into your question, and I am going to ask Marius to weigh in. I do want to just position that our Fischer-Tropsch technology compared to any other new startup, and there are quite a number of newly announced startups that claim that they would use Fischer-Tropsch to monetize some of these opportunities. I just would like to position that Sasol has got 70 years of practicing this technology. We have got various technologies implemented, scaled up, commercialized, and run. We have got various facilities all over the world. We have got different operating modes of Fischer-Tropsch, high temperature, low temperature, iron-based catalyst, cobalt-based catalyst.
I just would like to position that from a FT perspective, applying it in this application, we have got unrivaled experience, and I think that is the fact of the matter. With respect to FT in this specific application, I am going to ask Marius to give some perspectives.
Thank you. Thank you so much, Fleetwood. If I just, Gretchen, come to your question and looking at other technologies, I am just going to give you perhaps two lenses that we have looked at. If you compare our FT to liquids solution versus perhaps an ethanol to liquid solution. Certainly we see this FT route to be from a CapEx point of view, very much more competitive. We are seeing improved energy efficiencies using the FT, but more so perhaps a very important one for us, selectivity. I think really if you look at what we want to achieve here is produce SAF or e-kerosene as it has been commonly also referred to. Our yields through FT technology application is significantly better than you can find through the other technologies.
We have a catalyst that we're looking now at that can give you a yield almost nearly in excess of 80% e-kerosene, which is really fantastic in terms of the solution that we are pursuing. Also we have to be quite open to the bio-based opportunities. We know about HEFA, we know about alcohol-to-jet. All of those are very important also, but they are limited in terms of feedstock. I think if you look at land and water availability going into the future, they need to contribute, but it's a limited contribution as we see, and also the market assists that. I think it's a case of and. We need HEFA, we need alcohol-to-jet, but more so we need that PTL, that Power-to-Liquids solution.
This is specifically where Fischer-Tropsch and the Sasol Fischer-Tropsch solution can make a big difference to decarbonize those hard-to-abate industries that we are pursuing, and being Sustainable Aviation Fuels being a primary focus for us at this stage.
Thank you, Marius. One last question from my side. Any changes to the asset lives or write-downs as a result of today's plans? That comes from Alex Comer at JP Morgan.
Hello, Alex. You like this question, so let me give it another go. In terms of the write-downs, we did say during the year-end results, we did take a significant write-down on the South African value chain, per se, on the areas in Chemicals Africa as well as on the fuel side. Those were really informed what we articulated at that point in time, realistic conservative assumptions of what we believe the world is going to be in the next foreseeable future. What we did articulate at that point in time is because you haven't taken FID on certain projects, that ultimately you cannot build the benefit of those projects into your NPVs at this point in time.
We do believe that from a write-down and a net asset value perspective, we have left ourselves with sufficient headroom compared to potentially catering for any significant macroeconomic shocks as well as the maintain capital and transition capital investment required for us over the next couple of years, as well as dealing with a lower oil price and lower margins going forward. All of those are currently being catered for within our NPV or net asset value for the energy business. We do believe going forward with these projects discussed and as they get sanctioned and they start to contribute future value, that it will ultimately a positive catalyst for introducing more value.
As Priscillah also indicated earlier, the value contributions that we envisage to realize in the energy business over time, in the next couple of years, I think will also be a positive catalyst in introducing more value on the NPV side, just looking at write-downs. This doesn't require any further write-downs of the business. On the contrary, I think we've been quite realistically conservative, as I've said, left us enough headroom. We do believe that as these plans get executed, there will probably be more a push to the upside as to the downside. It doesn't take away that the world is volatile, and if we do move substantially lower, in terms of our $45 oil price case, then ultimately write-downs may come into play. We don't see the world from impairment perspective or fair value perspective necessarily, being that low.
We've taken the $55 world into account. Those inform our net asset values at this point in time, but our plans do indicate a further value upside if these plans get sanctioned and they start to roll out and earn their own living. Secondly, in terms of asset lives, I think the one that we can quickly jump to is obviously mining, because we do indicate that ultimately our dependency on coal will reduce over time. We again looked at that, and we don't believe it's necessary to actually change the useful life. Our reserve base go until 2043, but as you know, you don't produce 40 million tons right up to the end of 2043. There is a declining curve associated with that. Those we've taken properly into account, so there's no change to the mining asset life.
On Secunda, we don't anticipate to change that asset life at this point in time, given in all the scenarios that we run, we do believe that there is a future for Secunda leading to 2050. Obviously, we will stay very close to that fact, but we do believe that ultimately there is a higher probability for Secunda still to continue to operate until 2050. On Sasolburg, we have made that decision to ultimately limit the asset life in Sasolburg to 2030 and 2034. Ultimately, I think if one look in terms of Sasolburg, the whole Natref asset, as well as the potential contribution of green hydrogen to the Sasolburg site may warrant us to change and assess those useful lives once capital projects are sanctioned to actually extend the life. It will be based on a positive sanction on capital projects.
I think in the U.S. and in Europe, we actually don't need to do anything. Those really stand as we articulated them at year-end.
Thank you for those responses, Paul. We'll move on to the next set of questions. The first one from Shashank Lanka. Seems like a lot of actions for ESG reduction targets till 2030. Could they have been carried out earlier? Any reason for these not have been done earlier? I'll also then ask the next question. Is the 1.2 GW in renewables funded from the transform capital or by third parties with Sasol as an offtaker?
Thank you, Elton. The first question from Shashank. I think we always have been very clear that our transition from coal to gas to renewables was reflected in our first climate change report, as we say, reduce, transform and shift our portfolio. The thinking has moved on. A year or two ago, we were really relying on the development of a North South Rovuma pipeline that would bring in ample gas to the southern part of Mozambique and into the region and also into Southern Africa. When we looked at that and the viability and the timelines and the defining topic of this year is ESG, the pandemic has exacerbated that in terms of the realization of impact of climate change, pandemics and others, weather events into the world we experience.
We've also progressed our thinking, therefore, when we look back now, we have bring in the optionality of LNG in addition to our resources in the Pande-Temane area. That's why I think we've crystallized over the last 12 months now or more recently than these optionalities and made very, very good progress such that we can come up with these targets today. I think that's the honest development of what transpired. With respect to Herbie's question, will the 1.2 GW or 1,200 MW be refunded from the transform capital? Actually, we are doing those on a product offtake type of arrangement. We enter into commercial contracts with those suppliers who will then invest on their side, but we secure the offtake of the supply of those renewables into our facilities. That's how we deal with that one.
Thank you, Fleetwood. The next two questions I'll now be asking. The first one is from Alex Comer. Alex says there's not much mention of Natref. Will it be shut down? The next question is from Grant McMillan, and Grant asks, LCCP could be hit by bigger climate events. What have you done to reduce this risk for the next 10 years?
Thank you, Elton, for those two questions. I'm going to ask that Priscillah reflect on the Natref bit and that Brad reflects on the question with respect to climate events in the U.S.
Thanks, Fleetwood. With regard to Natref, a decision has not yet been made. What we've done, though, is we have modeled the assessment of sort of the impact of the CF2 on Natref. We do know that today, without any compensation or remuneration framework, it is not viable to upgrade Natref. Having said that, we are running multiple scenarios to see what optionalities do we have to convert Natref into a sustainable refinery, depending on demand going forward, and we're in discussions with our partners at Total. Thank you.
Thank you, Priscillah. Brad?
Yes, thanks. Grant, thanks for the question. Obviously, it is hard for us to predict weather events, but what we can do is to constantly make sure that we are ready for them to avoid interruptions of supply. If you look back to the year 2020, when we did see two hurricanes that came through the Lake Charles area, we actually suffered very minimal damage within our own site. The biggest impact was due to electrical infrastructure, and the same thing we are seeing in the region around New Orleans and Baton Rouge, where Entergy is having to replace a lot of the high voltage pylons, which had been installed for decades. I think we continue to engage with our utility suppliers.
I think a lot of those were replaced in our area during the restoration following for two hurricanes, and so that would give us some comfort that those are more updated and modern pylons installed. At the same time, in terms of business interruption, we continue to work with our customers to see how we can forward place product prior to hurricane season, so that in case there is logistics disruptions, things like that, we can give them the security of supply that is possible during those uncertain events. We do take it seriously. We do not like the interruptions, but fortunately, as I mentioned, we have very little damage within our own site. It is more about our response to that and taking care of our people. Thank you.
Thank you for that response, Brad. We now move on to our last question, which has come through on the portal, and this question comes from Chris Nicholson at RMB Morgan Stanley. The question is: Could you elaborate on the approvals required or potential regulatory issues, for example, NERSA or the Eskom grid wheeling requirements with the rolling out of the 1,200 megawatts of renewables?
Thank you, Elton. Thank you, Chris. I believe that I will just make the following remark before I ask Priscillah to weigh in on what our teams are busy with at the moment in terms of those engagements. Suffice to say that the intent or the ambition of the first 600 MW , we all along engaged with government, and that would have been on that level on a project-by-project basis. We know that at that time there was only a regulatory framework for 10 MW of embedded generation. That has subsequently now been increased to 100 MW. Theoretically, you can almost put 12 MW of those together to get that ambition fulfilled. Of course, there are still the wheeling and the transmission issues that we need to deal with as we get those supply agreements in place. Priscillah?
Thanks, Fleetwood. Just to add as well on the NERSA, we welcome the recent decision to increase the self-generation to 100 MW, and we're quite advanced in our discussions with NERSA on that, particularly for phase one, as Fleetwood mentioned. Secondly, as well, we've gone through phase 1 of our RFP, and what has really been quite encouraging is that a number of the projects that have come through are actually shovel-ready, which means that most of them already have a connection arrangement with Eskom. Nevertheless, we are in progress discussions with our partners, [Elukut], with Eskom, to ensure that we can actually get the required wheeling arrangement and agreement with Eskom. We are concerned, however, that when you look at some parts of our country, such as the Northern Cape, we certainly do not have sufficient transmission system.
Those are discussions that we're currently having with both Eskom as well as government. To achieve 1,200 MW, we have the confidence with the projects that we're assessing that we will be able to deliver that.
Thank you, Priscillah. We have now reached the close of our Q&A session today, and we'll be wrapping up shortly. To help close out today's event, I invite our CEO, Fleetwood Grobler, to say a few words.
Thank you, Tiffany. On behalf of the executive team here at Sasol, I would like to convey my appreciation to everyone involved in the many, many months of hard work that culminated in today's engagement. I would like to thank the Sasol board and my fellow executives that you've met here today virtually, for the sterling work that they've done with their business teams, developing the strategy, refining it, and getting us to the stage where we can communicate that to the market day, Capital Markets Day. Also, our business teams at the back and investor relations and communications and our service providers, consultants, and everyone that made this possible. This was truly a fantastic team effort, and I just want to thank from the bottom of my heart, everyone involved, again, for a sterling effort that culminated in today's event.
I would also like to convey my appreciation to all our stakeholders who took the time out of your busy schedules today to join us for today's Capital Markets Day event. Team Sasol is very excited about the updated strategy. As you have heard, we have a compelling investment proposition with a clear vision to decarbonize our businesses and preserve also shareholder value in doing that. Our ambition is to grow shared value while accelerating our transition, all of which is guided by our purpose, innovating for a better world. Thank you once again for joining us for today's Capital Markets Day virtual event, and my team and I look forward to continuing our discussions with you in the days and months ahead. Thank you.
Thank you very much, Fleetwood. That brings us to the end of today's proceedings. As mentioned before, if there are any questions we did not get to today, these will remain in our database, and we'll respond to them after this live event. As a reminder, a copy of the presentations from today's event, as well as some supplemental material, is all available on the website. I refer you to the contact details reflected on the screen now for our investor and media relations teams, should you wish to contact the team directly. Thank you once again for your participation. We wish you all a safe and wonderful day further.