Valterra Platinum Limited (JSE:VAL)

Earnings Call: H2 2020

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Feb 22, 2021

Good morning, and thank you for joining Anglo American Platinum's twenty twenty Annual Results Presentation and Strategy Update. Presenting today, we will have Natasha Fouillon, the CEO of Anglo American Platinum and Craig Miller, our Finance Director, who will together go through the 2020 performance of the company. If you would like to ask any questions throughout the presentation, you can submit questions and comments through the virtual platform. And for those on the conference call, there will be an opportunity to ask questions at the end. Moving to the cautionary statement. I would just like to draw your attention to the statement, and we will appreciate if you could read this in full in your own time. And with that, I'd like to hand you over to our CEO, Natasha. Good morning, everyone, on the call on the webcast and on the conference call who has joined us here this morning. Before we start, I would like to take a moment on behalf of everyone at Anglo American Platinum to pay our respects to the victims of COVID-nineteen. We would also like to pay tribute to our colleagues we lost in work related incidents. I'm deeply saddened by the loss of our colleague, Lindili Manzingi, in a fall of ground incident at Armandovald mine and by the loss of the three colleagues at our joint operations, Giles Sonendani at Kroondal and Johannes Masalela and Denis Madalka at Modikwa. We once again extend our deepest condolences to their families, friends and colleagues. I would like to start with an overview of 2020. We achieved record financials in 2020 despite facing significant headwinds with our performance demonstrating that we can deliver. Firstly, the elimination of fatalities and zero calm remain embedded in our values. And we were reminded that it is a journey that requires undiluted leadership every day when we sadly and unacceptably had a work related fatality at our Mandelbult mine after seven hundred days of being fatal free. We remain committed to this journey. We feel proud and privileged to have been in the position to support our employees and host communities during the COVID-nineteen pandemic and we will continue to look after their well-being and play our role in supporting the rollout of the vaccines to employees and communities. As expected, PGM production was impacted by COVID-nineteen, but we had a strong recovery in the second half with production up 1% year on year, showing we have embedded COVID-nineteen protocols in our new normal. Refined production was impacted by COVID-nineteen and the temporary closure of the ACP. We are pleased that we were able to safely manage the ICP operations and complete a successful rebuild of Phase I ahead of schedule. Phase I continues to operate well and even above expectations. The fundamentals for the PGM market remain robust and the PGM dollar basket price increased 51% with rhodium increasing an incredible 190%. The strong price environment underpinned our record financial performance with an EBITDA of billion increasing by 39%. Moving on to a review of ESG and how we run a responsible business. The company's core value of safety starts with the primary focus to eliminate fatalities. Despite the challenges of shutting down and restarting operations, we had an improvement in our total recordable case injury frequency rate improving four percent to two point four per one million hours worked. The rate was further reduced to one point seven seven in December due to the implementation of greater risk management and increase in management time at the operations and safety stoppages to strengthen our elimination of fatalities work. We will continue to pioneer and implement new technology, digitization and modernize our operations to further improve our safety performance and work towards our goal of zero harm. COVID-nineteen has highlighted the serious need in our communities, which required a collective response effort. We have invested ZAR500 million in initiatives to support our local communities and protect the livelihoods of our employees. Our efforts include providing monthly food parcels and vouchers to help 160,000 community members, ensuring water supply to communities benefiting over 100,000 people and this is over and above our normal water supply to host communities. We've provided equipment to 77 local clinics and hospitals and supported victims of gender based violence. In addition to this, we continue to support all our employees. We paid ZAR1.6 billion in salaries during the lockdown and continue to pay those who are still not able to come back to work to ensure we continue to protect both lives and livelihoods. Our responses have enabled us to work in new ways with our stakeholders and we invest in partnerships and solutions that will continue to benefit our communities long after the pandemic has ended. In other areas, we continue our broader management of chronic disease. As part of our safety strategy, we focus on the health and well-being of our employees. By providing medication to people infected with tuberculosis, there has been a significant reduction in TB related deaths from twenty seven in twenty fifteen to one in twenty twenty. We've also managed to reduce our TB incidence rate by forty three percent to one hundred and eighty seven per 100,000 people, which is well below the South African national average of six fifteen. Despite the surpassing the UNA's 2020 commitments of nineteennineteenninety in 2019, we had a slight reduction across all the measures in 2020. Ninety four percent of our employees know their status, ninety two percent of those infected are on antiretroviral treatment and eighty four percent have viral load suppression. During lockdown, we made additional efforts to ensure all employees had access to their medication before the national lockdown. We made home deliveries and ran communication campaigns to remind people to take their medication. We will continue to focus on meeting the UNAIDS targets with the next goals currently under review. We had no material environmental incidents at operations since 2013, and we've made significant progress in reducing our waste to landfill, improving ninety two percent since the 2013 baseline, with most of our waste either being reused, recycled or recovered. We have five remaining waste streams that need solutions to get to us to the ultimate ambition of zero waste to landfill. These remaining waste streams equated to only 118 tonnes in 2020, less than 1% of the waste we sent to landfill in 2013, our baseline year. In response to the global challenge of climate change, our activities are focused on radically reducing our energy consumption through future smart mining methods and technology adoption, as well as switching to low carbon energy sources and increasing renewables in our energy mix. Aligned with this approach, we have set 2030 targets to improve energy efficiency and reduce absolute greenhouse gas emissions by 30% against the 2016 baseline. We aim to achieve carbon neutrality by 02/1940. We have so far achieved an 8% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, driven primarily by the results of energy efficiency improvements and energy reduction opportunities at our operations since 2016. We have also steadily decreased our energy intensity by 7% since 2016. In 2020, 29% of our water use was from potable sources. This consumption is down from 38% in 2016, with a reduction achieved from focused water management practices and increasing our use of water from treated municipal effluent sources. Technology will play an important role to reduce this further. With the support of the South African and Zimbabwean governments and with the industry collaboration, mining was one of the first industries that was allowed to restart operations under strict health protocols. This enabled us to continue our meaningful contribution to society to focus on creating sustainable operations for the long term, aligned with our purpose, which is to reimagine mining to improve people's lives. Despite the impact of COVID-nineteen, we increased our economic contributions compared to 2019. This included doubling our taxes to government to ZAR10.4 billion. Our community share scheme, Alchemy, successfully settled the notional vendor financing, resulting in R1.4 million Anglo American shares transferring to local community development trusts around our operations in South Africa. We've continued over R800 million on to spend over ZAR800 million on social and labor plans, corporate social investment projects and dividends to both the Atomatic and Alchemy community share schemes as well as investments to protect the health of communities during COVID-nineteen. We continue to focus on growing local procurement, amounting to ZAR21 billion in 2020. This included ZAR3.8 billion spent directly in doorstep communities. We've spent ZAR10.9 billion on salaries and benefits to employees and we have paid billion in dividends to shareholders in 2020. Looking now to a review of our operations. Total PGM production for 2020 decreased by 14% to 3,800,000 ounces due to the national lockdowns, as well as the closure of the Tumela upper section and some service operations at Armando Bolt, as they reached the end of their life. Operating conditions were difficult and the management teams did very well to manage these challenges, embed COVID-nineteen protocols to keep our employees safe. In spite of these additional protocols, we had a strong recovery in the second half, with own mines production up 1% against the second half of twenty nineteen. And by the 2020, we had all our operations at 100% of normal production capacity. Our mining margins remained strong at 55% for own mine operations. Refined production of 2,700,000 ounces was impacted by both the temporary closures of the ACP as well as the impacts from COVID-nineteen. This led to an increase in work in progress inventory of around 1,000,000 PGM ounces, which is expected to be released by the 2020. Across our operations, we saw a strong recovery in the second half production as national lockdowns were limited to the first half of the year and COVID-nineteen protocols became the new way of working. Production recovery at Umke and Mutatola were particularly strong, outperforming second half twenty nineteen production levels, whilst managing COVID-nineteen protocols. Mogalakwena was the least impacted by the national lockdown restrictions and as one of the first operations granted the right to continue operating surface operations. However, community unrest in the final quarter impact production as employees were unable to get to work. Amandelbult, who had the largest challenge due to its size and number of employees, was more affected and the mine managed to return to normal production capacity by the end of the third quarter. Normalizing for infrastructure closures, Amandel build was only 6% down in the second half, providing a strong recovery in performance despite the headwinds. In spite of the lower volumes of production, we continue to see strong EBITDA margins across all our operations. Across our own mine operations, we also saw an increase in our mining EBITDA margin from 44% in the first half to 62% in the second half of the year. These very strong financial results were primarily due to the increased basket price and supported by a billion in cost savings, which more than offset the impact of CPI and mining inflation. Refined PGM production of 2,700,000 ounces was impacted by the ACP repairs and COVID-nineteen. As you can see in the chart, compared to 2019, we lost 712,000 PGM ounces due to COVID-nineteen, which meant we had lower input material to refine. In addition, the temporary closure of ICP resulted in a buildup in work in progress inventory of around 1,000,000 ounces. This has not lost production and will be released by the 2022. Sales volumes from production of 2,900,000 PGM ounces were impacted by lower refined production, but supplemented by the sale of refined inventory stock. We also saw a significant increase in trading as additional metal was sourced from third parties to mitigate the supply disruptions to our customers. The ICPI is running well following its almost full rebuild. Our improved monitoring and controls are showing us stability in the plant is improving. We have high availability rights for the plant and due to the stockpiles of furnace mat ahead of the ICP, we have a constant right of feed, which will insist in releasing the working capital build. In addition, the chart shows our quarterly refined production performance since the 2018. Assuming the midpoint of our refined production guidance for 2021 of between four point six million and five million PGM ounces and including tolled refined material, we can show that our historic refining performance will allow us to refine our metal in concentrate production as well as draw down the work in progress inventory. This provides us with the required confidence that we will manage successfully through the period while Phase B is being rebuilt. These rebuilds from part of our normal annual form part of our normal annual or biannual maintenance schedules. I will now hand over to Craig to take us through the financials and market update. Thank you, Natasha, and good morning, everyone. We're today reporting a record set of financial results, despite the challenges posed by the ACP and the COVID-nineteen pandemic. Revenue of R138 billion is up 38% underpinned by strong PGM prices. Record EBITDAR of R42 billion is up 39 and headline earnings of R30.3 billion or R115.54 per share or up 63% from 2019. Cost saving initiatives offsetting the impact of COVID-nineteen delivered R1.8 billion and return on capital increased to 72%. The company's balance sheet remains strong with net cash of R19 billion. On the back of these strong results and in line with our disciplined capital allocation framework, we're able to declare a second half dividend of ZAR9.4 billion or ZAR35.35 per share, which equates to 40% payout of headline earnings. This brings the total dividend declared for the year to ZAR12 billion or ZAR45.58 per share. Revenue increased by 38% year on year. PGM basket price increased by 71% to R33,300 per PGM ounce, contributing R28 billion to revenue. Rhodium prices increased by 190% and palladium rose 45%. As a consequence of the ACP shutdowns, own production sales volumes declined by 38%. However, PGM trading volumes increased by 235% to just below 1,200,000 ounces, mitigating the supply disruption to customers. Underlying unit cost increased by 15% to R11,739 per PGM ounce, below our June 2020 market guidance. Unit costs were impacted by the 14% decline in mine production as a result of the COVID-nineteen pandemic. However, cost savings across the business resulted in R101.8 billion saving or R1,077 per PGM ounce, more than offsetting the impact of inflation. Continuing to pay salaries and wages to those employees not able to come to work during the COVID-nineteen lockdowns resulted in an additional R607 per PGM ounce. We're reporting a new EBITDA high of R42 billion, a 39% increase from 2019. The higher PGM basket price and the weaker South African rand, net of inflation, contributed R29 billion. The temporary closure of the ACP unit in the first half of the year and the closure of the B unit in November resulted in lost EBITDAR of R12.8 billion. The COVID-nineteen impact was R3.4 billion, made up of R1.3 billion as a result of lower production from mining operations, billion paid in labor costs to those employees not able to work because of the lockdowns, and R0.5 billion was incurred in responding to the COVID-nineteen pandemic. The mining EBITDA margin increased by 10 percentage points to 55, while the Group EBITDA margin increased from 32% to 43%. And as I mentioned, return on capital increased to 72%. Trade working capital at the 2020 was billion compared to R3.1 billion at the 2019. The net increase was mainly attributable to the buildup of approximately 1,000,000 PGM ounces in work in progress inventory ahead of the ACP. The value of this inventory is billion, an increase of ZAR22 billion from the prior period. As Natasha said, the release of this inventory is expected to take up to twenty four months. However, the increase was partially offset by the ZAR9.2 billion increase in the customer prepayment as a result of the higher PGM prices. Stained business capital expenditure was R5 billion focused on capital maintenance, purchasing equipment, the smelter rebuilds and SO2 abatement project at the Polokwane smelter. The cost of the ACPA repairs was approximately ZAR0.5 billion, and we received ZAR350 million from insurers in January. The rebuild of the B unit is expected to cost between R550 million and R600 million. R1.2 billion was spent on progressing our breakthrough projects, including the bulk ore sorter and coarse particle rejection project at Mogalakwena, progressing the Amandibold modernization program and the copper debottlenecking project at the base metals refinery. So looking ahead, in line with our enhanced focus on asset reliability and a continuous maintenance cycle, as well as replacing heavy mining equipment, which is due to come to the end of its life, staying business capital expenditure is anticipated to be between ZAR7 billion and ZAR7.5 billion in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, staying business capital expenditure is anticipated to be between ZAR7.8 billion and ZAR8.3 billion. Capitalized waste stripping in 2020 was ZAR2.5 billion, and this is expected to be between ZAR2.8 billion and ZAR3.1 billion in 2021. Despite the operational challenges, the company ended the year in a net cash position of R18.7 billion, up 1.4 on 2019. Liquidity headroom, excluding the customer prepayment, is R22 billion, comprising of undrawn committed facilities of R21 billion and cash of R1 billion. As a result of the strong balance sheet, the company has been able to declare a second half dividend of ZAR9.4 billion or ZAR35.35 per share. This brings the total twenty twenty dividend to ZAR12.1 billion, equating to a 40% payout of full year headline earnings. Underpinning our strategy, we have a disciplined and value focused approach to capital allocation with clear prioritization on maximizing cash generation, which was billion last year. R7.8 billion was spent on sustaining capital, maintaining the integrity of our asset base and in continuing our base dividend payout of 40% of headline earnings as dividend. Discretionary capital was allocated towards growth investments as we met our stringent value criteria, billion was spent on breakthrough projects in 2020. I'll now take you through a review of the PGM markets. The 2020 was another strong year for PGM prices. As you can see in the chart, the cheap dollar basket price increased by 51% to just over ZAR2000 per PGM ounce. The South African rand weakened 11% against The U. S. Dollar, resulting in a 71% increase in the rand basket price. Rhodium was the strongest performing metal, hitting an all time high towards the end of last year. Looking at the demand side, demand was impacted by a change in consumer behavior driven by where people work, how they prefer to travel, their expendable income and alternatives to international travel. It's further been impacted by tightening environmental legislation. And lastly, the perception of wealth storage has impacted investment demand. The automotive sector accounts for two thirds of PGM demand. The chart shows a sharp contraction in the first half of the year due to the COVID-nineteen pandemic. Sales Light were down 14% year on year, but this was almost entirely due to 28% decline in the first six months, while in the second half an impressive recovery led by China means sales were just 1% lower than the comparative period. PGM automotive demand was also helped by a 5% increase in average PGM loadings per vehicle as tighter emission standards in China and Europe continued to require more metal. Two other large PGM demand segments, industrial uses and jewelry were also affected by the COVID-nineteen pandemic, but to different extents. The shared diversity of the PGM industrial use meant to track the wider industrial sector, which is more robust than retail and services sector. Platinum jewelry demand was significantly impacted, initially at least as COVID-nineteen restrictions saw retail impacted badly and many weddings postponed. Jewelry, however, has also had a strong second half recovery, suggesting potential demand remains strong. 2021 should be a better year, especially for the bridal sector. Investment was also strong for platinum in 2020. Both exchange traded funds and traditional bars and coins enjoyed robust demand. Many platinum investors appear attracted by the improving future fundamentals such as the potential demand from hydrogen applications. On the other hand, palladium ETF selling continues with holdings reaching its lowest level since 2008 as a tight market and high prices incentivize liquidation. 2020 was also a breakthrough year for the hydrogen economy. Governments increasingly see hydrogen as a crucial part of their net zero carbon ambitions. Nine countries plus the European Union announced hydrogen strategies last year, and South Africa has also confirmed its hydrogen strategy. Corporates are also becoming increasingly involved. The Hydrogen Council has now 109 members, up from 59 in 2019, again showing that hydrogen is becoming a real commercial opportunity. It's not just targets and talking, installations of PEM electrolyzers, which have platinum and iridium catalysts and our preferred way to make green hydrogen have soared. The fact that the PGM demand and supply were both hit by COVID-nineteen means overall balances weren't expected as much as might have been expected. Platinum and rhodium ended the year in larger deficits than in 2019, while palladium was a smaller but still a large deficit. In 2021, we expect a deficit on a 3E basis. Palladium will be in another sizable deficit, while rhodium will be in a smaller deficit than what we saw in 2020. We forecast platinum to be a small surplus, but this could change depending on factors such as a strong year of investment and the degree of substitution for palladium in gasoline catalytic converters. Thank you. I'll hand you back to Natasha. COVID has certainly taught us new skills, that's for sure. Well, you, Greg. To close, I will turn to our 2021 guidance. We have embedded COVID-nineteen protocols at our operations and have set them up for a strong performance in 2021. PGM production is expected to be between four point two million and four point six million ounces back to pre COVID-nineteen levels. Refined PGM production guidance, which excludes tolling, is expected to increase to between four point six million and five million ounces as we refine production and release some of the build up in work in progress inventory. Sales volumes remain in line with refined production, excluding traded ounces sold. Capital expenditure will increase to between billion to ZAR7.5 billion, as we focus on asset integrity and breakthrough technology capital to further improve our operational performance. Capitalized waste stripping is estimated to be between billion and ZAR3.1 billion. Unit cost guidance will be between ZAR11000 and ZAR11.5000 per PGM ounce for 2021, lower than 2020 due to improved volumes, productivity and cost improvements. To conclude, we continue to focus on our value of safety with the ultimate ambition of eliminating fatalities and achieving zero harm. We are proud of the support we have provided to communities and employees during the COVID-nineteen pandemic and will use the insights to build even stronger relationships going forward. We continue to see robust demand for PGMs, in particular due to the unique qualities, which enable a green and decarbonized world, and we will continue our work to shape its use in support of this green future. We've embedded COVID-nineteen protocols and have confidence in the performance of the ICPI rebuild, setting the business up for strong recovery in 2021. Considering the impact of COVID-nineteen, our mining operations had a good year. Despite the significant impact that the stoppages of the ACP had on refined production, I am convinced that the decisions we've taken to protect our employees and the integrity of our assets were the correct ones, and we have learned from every one of them. Accounting for all of this and with the support of high prices for our products, we have delivered record financial performance in a very challenging year. In collaboration with many stakeholders, driven by the care and respect for our employees and our communities and accountability to our suppliers of capital, our financial performance allowed us to make meaningful contribution to society and pay dividends to our shareholders. And with that, I will hand you back to Emma for questions. Thank you, Natasha. Thank you, Craig. We are going to take questions now. I have received some questions from the online webcast, and then we will go over to the conference call line. But as a starting question, I have one for you, Craig. This has come from Wade who asks, could you please provide some color on the decision to not declare a special dividend? The group's financial position and PGM market outlook appear to be accommodating. Thanks Emma. Wade, yes, so certainly I think we have a capital allocation framework which sets out how we go through the determination of where we direct our capital during the year. As a consequence of that we clearly generated cash and we declared the base dividend of 40%, so equating to just over ZAR12 billion in dividends for the year. And then we look at our discretionary capital options. It's a bit appreciating the balance sheet is strong. We have had a number of headwinds in 2020, particularly being the ACP, which did have an impact on us. And as a result of that, we decided that we would like to see some more runs on the board with regard or ounces coming out of the ACP and processing before making any further dividend payments. But in line with our capital allocation framework, we will review and we do this at every reporting cycle, we will review how we and where we distribute that cash. And so my expectation is we'll go through a very similar process in June and we'll certainly make the determination in terms of how we return cash to shareholders. Thank you. I have another question here from Uncuteco at Investec for you, Natasha. Uncuteco asks, what is the capacity of Amandelbult? Is the 550,000 ounce platinum production target still feasible with the infrastructure closures? Should we view this how should we view this operation in the next two to three years? Thank you for that question, Teketa Pettigrew. My apologies. The current capacity at Ormando Build is in the order of 7,000,000 tonnes per year, my apologies. The infrastructure closures will obviously impact on those and we are looking at ways of ensuring that we get to the right size for this operation to ensure its economic viability going forward. Perfect. Craig, I've got another question for you also from Wade from Avior. What were the key constituents of cost savings of PHP1.8 billion? And are there any cost saving targets for 2021? So yes, we're very, very pleased to have delivered the PHP1.8 billion in savings. They come from various sources. Those savings, some of that is just because of as a consequence of the lower production and therefore savings on consumables. We have had some saving deferrals coming through as well. But they're across the entire piece. We've had lower contractor expenditure. So there's really a large focus around how do we respond to the lockdowns that we experienced in the second quarter of the year. In terms of going forward, we haven't articulated what the cost savings are, but the cost savings are built into our unit cost guidance which we've prepared and we've suggested that between ZAR11000 and ZAR11.5000 per PGM ounce. Perfect. Adam, could I just quickly see if there are any questions on the conference call line, please? Okay. I have plenty more questions on the webcast, so I'll continue. So again, Craig, another question for you from Uncutecca at Investec. Could we please get an update on CapEx improved sorry, aimed at improving the overall asset reliability of specifically the processing infrastructure. How much of this CapEx is REPRESENTATIVE:] in the 7,000,000,000 to $7,500,000,000 CapEx guidance for 2021? So, Tycho, in terms of the capital, so we are seeing a step up in our capital maintenance program and it's about approximately between ZAR2 billion and ZAR2.5 billion has been allocated to capital maintenance across the suite of assets for the next few years and that is a step up from we were spending approximately 1,000,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 point historically. So it is a step up, but it is in recognition of our focus around asset integrity and maintaining the quality of our asset base. Perfect. Natasha, I think I've got a question for you here from Adrian Hammond at Standard Bank. What's the risk of ACP having another incident before Phase B is repaired? UNIDENTIFIED Thank you for that question, Adrian. I think it's a question on many people's minds. We have implemented significant new systems and control measures to make sure firstly that our operations of ACPA run stable. Because if we consider the original challenge that we had was an operational challenge on ICPI. In addition to that, we have had many learnings on ICP B that we have implemented on ICPI. We are very conscious and deliberate in how we operate that asset with the right level of competence in evaluating its performance on a daily basis. I think it's also just important to recognize that in history, we normally go through these rebuild cycles. So it's not the first time that we will be running one unit whilst another unit is being rebuilt. And we have done so successfully for many years. I think the fact that we had an incident last year certainly impacted confidence levels, but I believe that we've done everything we should have to maintain the stability and the integrity of that asset. UNIDENTIFIED Perfect. I've got a question here from Sylvain at Exane BNP Paribas. I think Craig, this is probably aimed for you. What is the latest on power availability and price in South Africa? Are there any constraints on operating hours? And how much of Amplatz's power is sourced internally versus the grid? Okay. So in terms of the cost and the escalations, let me talk about availability. So clearly we have been impacted by any load curtailment that Eskom introduced, but we are able to manage that in terms of how we deploy the energy then to our various assets. And typically we will get a bit of notice and then we can make the necessary arrangements. So we're not in a position where we would have people necessarily underground. We would make sure that we have all the electricity that's required there and we would then reduce some of the electricity at some of our other operations. But we're able to manage that and but clearly obviously with the disruptions it does have an impact on our business. In terms of the tariff escalation, so Eskom was awarded a 15% increase in electricity prices. That award came through last week. However, we have built into our unit cost guidance. We have built in a forecast increase of around that level and so that is built into what we're anticipating spending for the year. And then in terms of where we are today in terms of our own electricity generation versus the grid, at the moment we take 100% of our electricity from the grid. However, as part of our Mogalakwena solar PV plant and what we're looking to do there from the hydrogen track. We're looking at developing our own solar plants that will be able to then wield that energy into the Mogalakwena operation, but that's something to come in the future years. Perfect. I've got a question for Natasha. Is Anglo American Platinum planning to mandate COVID vaccines for employees? I think it's important to recognize, key that at this stage only governments can procure vaccines. I think in addition to that, we are fully committed to support government and industry to support the procurement and rollout of vaccines to our employees. And to that extent, we have been working closely with industry, with business and collaborate in support of governments to get vaccines to our employees and to the larger South African society as soon as possible. UNIDENTIFIED I have a couple of questions that I think are likely to be aimed at Craig from Shillen at UBS. There's three parts to this question. One, do your forecasted deficits include the sale of inventory? And what is your view on 2022 surpluses and deficits? The second part is, please can you give us more color on the Mogalakwena CapEx outlook? What needs to be replaced? I'm not sure about that part of the question, but is the expansion project still on the table? And this will be coming up in more detail in the strategy update. And three, you are lifting volumes materially year on year, but your unit cash cost guidance is flat. Can you give us some insight into the cost pressures you are facing? Okay. So thanks very much for the questions. And in terms of the deficit forecast for 2021 and then what we're looking forward to in 2022, yes they do include the anticipated refined production from ourselves and so that has been taken into account. I think as we look into the outlook for what 2022 looks like, as I said when we spoke, we see continuation of demand for PGMs in the auto catalyst sector and so we would be anticipating a 3E deficit as well in 2022. And that's just really driven by the fundamentals for the metals as well as in the recovery that we see from ourselves and others in the South African industry following the impact of COVID. In terms of the Mogalakwena CapEx outlook, I think you're referring to the replacement of heavy mining equipment that we do see taking place in both in 2021, 2022 and to some extent in 2023. We've got a series of pieces of equipment that have been coming to the end of their life. We've extended their life through some of our P101 programs. We've been able to extend sort of track operating hours by approximately 20%, 25%. So we've done that, but now we're going to face of that replacement and that's where you see that additional HME equipment spend coming through for the next few years. I think on the expansion, we'll cover that in the presentation very shortly. And then in terms of volume and your question around cost, and certainly we do see we have a program linked back to our P101 where we aim to achieve benchmark performance. And as a result of that, we have greater efficiencies within the business and that therefore enables us to moderate the increases in unit costs. Where we see cost pressures coming through, clearly a 50% increase in energy is one of those components. We do have wages which are forecast to increase by another 5.5% this year in terms of our wage agreement. So those are probably two of our largest drivers around cost pressures. But therefore it's incumbent on us to work much harder in the business to be able to mitigate those cost increases and hence the guidance that we've got in unit costs. I have a question here for Natasha from Arnold. Is there any scope to toll treat some of the metal that's locked up? Is there any capacity in the industry to actually toll treat some of that buildup in work in progress inventory? Arnold, thank you and a very good question. We have reviewed a number of options to reduce our work in progress as fast as possible. And we are taking up some of those options that's available in the market, though they I need to point out that they're very marginal, but certainly helpful. So that we have underway. I think the best way for us to reduce our work in progress is to ensure that we look after the stability of ACPA and run that operation as stable and reliable as possible. That would both be the most efficient and cost effective way of reducing our work in progress. Perfect. I've got another question. It might be for both of you, which is please comment on the sale of non core assets such as Bocconi and Twickenham. And that's come from Patrick Mahon at Bank of America. Okay. So I'll take that. Good morning, Patrick. In terms of Baconi, we have a process that's underway for Baconi. We've progressed that and parties are currently undertaking site visits and due diligence activities. And so we're there are a number of parties that are interested in that particular opportunity and we're looking to hopefully conclude that sometime this year. Terms of Twickenham, that mine is obviously on care and maintenance. It is part of some of our options review in terms of how do we deal with that asset into the future with an expectation. We're busy updating our profiles for that. But I think as you'll see later on today, we really focus around our core for operating assets as the key part of the portfolio. Great. I've got a question for Natasha. This has come from Martin Creamer at Mining Weekly who asks, new hydro metallurgy is being rolled out at a rival platinum mine in the Northwest. Is Anglo American Platinum aware of this development, the advantage of hydrometology? Or is your company wedded to its pyrometallogy system that uses 80% more electricity, has higher breakdown risk, destroys cobalt and has several other disadvantages? Martin, thank you for that question. Yes, we are absolutely aware of this new technology. We have done extensive work to understand its application at our own operations, and we are keenly watching the development of that technology. In the meantime, with our own capital footprint, that is a very effective and efficient way to continue to and at the moment, still the most environmentally friendly way to treat and process our concentrates. We need to look after those assets, ensure that we continue our progress in working towards carbon neutrality, ensuring that we consider all of the ESG aspects around that processing. But certainly, Martin, we are not married to our own ideas and we have a keen eye out on all new technologies that is in under development out there. Perfect. Think Craig, a question from Umkateko asking how long will the repair of ACP Phase B take? And so ACP Phase B as Sascha has said is under rebuild at the moment and we expect that it would be complete that those repairs will be completed in the second half of the year. Got lots of questions coming up on rhodium here. So I've got a question that's come through from Dominic O'Kane at JP Morgan, who asked what is your refined sales guidance for rhodium in 2021? And what is the split between the first and the second half? How much rhodium do you currently hold in inventory? So Dominic, we don't provide the refined guidance as split out. So we give you the refined anticipated refined production on a PGM basis and then also for palladium and rhodium. I would suggest that you look at historically what we would have produced and you can interpret what that means for 2021. UNIDENTIFIED I think I'll probably have this as the last question. And Natasha, this comes from Adrian Hammond, who says, given your change in fortunes, will you be contributing more to R and D with respect to hydrogen? I think, Adrian, we will continue to invest money, as Craig mentioned earlier, guided by our disciplined capital allocation framework. We will however continue to support the development of our market and we will say a little bit more about that in our strategy updates a little bit later and not using our own money, but to be effective in the money that we do spend leveraging other capability and development opportunities globally. But certainly, hydrogen is very interesting to us. It's interesting to the future of our product. We feel very bullish about it and we'll tell you a little bit more about our plans in the strategy of that. Perfect. I think I will just very quickly just check that there are no questions coming from the conference call line. No. We currently have no questions. Okay. Perfect. I think we should call it to a close there, and I will respond to all of the additional questions that came through on the webcast. But thank you very much, everyone. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us for this presentation. We are thrilled to have this opportunity to update you on our strategy. This follows the delivery of our previous strategy, which sets a strong foundation for the next wave of value creation from Anglo American Platinum. I'm joining you today for a shared presentation by Craig Miller, our Finance Director Yvonne Mfoglu, Executive Head, Corporate Affairs and Prakash Mudlir, Executive Head, Projects and Environment. Benny Oyen, our Executive Head of Market Development will be joining us remotely for the question and answer session. Today, we look to share greater detail to provide clarity on our strategic priorities. I would like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement. We will appreciate if you could read this in full in your own time. We will cover the following topics today: a reminder of our purpose and the strategic priorities that that directs us to this important purpose the market outlook and drivers that underpin our strategy We will provide further detail of how we look to create value. And finally, we will share what this will mean for the business in terms of value creation. We are grounded in our purpose, which is to reimagine mining to improve people's lives. We are transforming the very nature of mining for a safer, cleaner, smarter future. We are using more precise technologies, less energy and less water, and we are reducing our physical footprint for every ounce of PGMs and base metals we produce. This purpose guides us as we continue the delivery of our strategy to create a better future for society. The world needs our metals to enable a greener future. With the acceleration of decarbonization, we will see an increase in demand for our metals. We are building off our strong foundation with an industry leading integrated portfolio of assets from mine to market. There is diversity of mineral assets, and we will move all our assets into the first half of the cost curve. We are strengthening our discipline our distinctive capabilities from setting industry benchmarks for performance, leading technology deployment and unique approach to market development. We are ensuring we deliver safe, reliable and stable operations, creating a fully mechanized and modernized portfolio of mining assets and capturing value across our value chain. We are delivering shared value through our sustainability pillars of being a trusted corporate leader, co creating thriving communities and enabling a healthy environment. We will maintain our balanced and value focused capital allocation to deliver industry leading returns with a return on capital employed in excess of 25% through the cycle. To achieve our purpose and create value for all stakeholders, we will drive four strategic priorities. We will stimulate new markets and leverage new capabilities through our market development activities and capture value from adjacent value chains. We will embed anti fragility across our business with the aim to increase our ability to thrive through major disruptions. We will maximize value from our core portfolio of mining and processing assets, deploying technology and innovation to drive efficiencies and growth, with targeted investments that define the future of our world class assets. And finally, we want to build on the pockets of excellence to become a leader in ESG in the mining sector, embedding ESG in the as a center of our strategy to become a trusted partner, leading in co creating thriving communities and ensuring a healthy environment. Our people make it all happen. Therefore, the creation of a purpose led values driven, high performance culture will be the foundation of our strategic delivery. We have an experienced executive team taking the company forward to deliver on our exciting new strategy. This team has extensive mining industry experience globally and is structured to align with our key strategic priorities. Building on the strength of the executive management team and given our renewed focus on asset integrity, operational excellence and ESG, we have restructured the roles of a number of executive positions and have new team members. As we seek to create thriving communities as a strategic imperative, we have introduced Ivan Mfolu as Executive Head Corporate Affairs. Appointed as the Executive Head of Health, Safety and Asset Reliability, we've appointed Rianne Blichnard. And lastly, Chris McCleave has joined the team in the role of Executive Head, Technical and Operational Excellence. Moving into the market outlook and our market development initiatives. So we have an expansive portfolio of diversified end products consisting of both platinum group metals and base metals. The world has seen has been relying on our metals and they will become increasingly important over time due to their unique features. They've played a really critical role in emission reduction in the past and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. In addition, our metals benefit from diversified demand sources, including industrial applications, jewelry and investment. Looking into the future, we are excited that our metals will play a critical role in the energy transition and electrification of mobility. For example, platinum and its alloys are uniquely suited for catalyzing the reaction within both hydrogen fuel cells and hydrogen electrolyzers. Looking at the base metals we produce, nickel and cobalt have widespread use in battery electric vehicles and copper demand will be driven by the energy transition to renewables. And we are equally excited about the development work we are doing for PGM applications in battery and low in batteries and low loss computing. In the medium term, we continue to see robust PGM demand. Total vehicle production will continue to increase as economies expand. Most of these vehicles, including all types of hybrid electric vehicles will still need PGM catalysts. The PGM loadings on these catalysts will increase due to more stringent emissions legislation globally. And even as battery electric vehicles take a greater share of sales, PGM demand in light duty vehicles could be up to 20% higher in 2030 compared to 2019. In the future of mobility, we see battery electric vehicles and fuel cell electric vehicles as complementary applications. There's an increasing recognition of hydrogen's role in decarbonizing sectors that are otherwise difficult to abate, like heating and mobility. Fuel cells have a particular advantage for longer range applications require faster refueling, for example, heavy duty trucks, buses and trains. Hydrogen potentially offers one of the most of the largest upsides for platinum demand in the coming decades. So I'll spend a little bit of time on it, on how it might impact our markets and what we are doing to help that. What is different now to the past is that there is a major directional shift towards hydrogen applications, and we are seeing positive signs towards the critical success factors to make this market a reality. It is all in the story of the electron and the molecule. Hydrogen is primary and an opportunity to store renewable energy in molecules. This solves the significant challenge of the continuous supply of renewable energy. The conversion of electrons to molecules and battery electrons though has cost and efficiency impacts. Policy changes and the inclusion of hydrogen in both government and private sectors decarbonization strategies will ensure that the resources are being made available for the development of the technologies. Through 2020 into 2021, we have seen strong momentum in hydrogen related investments. In the last year alone, over 200 hydrogen products were announced worldwide. And government funding pledges for hydrogen economy more than tripled in 2021, reaching US70 billion dollars driven by a global shift into decarbonization. We expect that these investments will continue to reduce the cost of hydrogen and make certain mobility applications increasingly competitive. For example, the Hydrogen Council estimates that 60% of applications become competitive at a cost of between US4 dollars to US6 dollars per kilogram. This is well over the US2 dollars per kilogram that Bloomberg New Energy Finance believes can be achieved by 02/1930, showing how soon hydrogen and fuel cells can become a commercial reality. This momentum in the hydrogen economy has significant potential for PGMs. To put this into perspective, if just 50% of heavy duty vehicles and 15% of light duty vehicles were to shift to fuel cell power, this could translate into PGM demand of about 6,000,000 ounces or 75% of global demand today. Electrolyzers will also use PGMs and provide the green hydrogen crucial for the success of fuel cells. These could contribute hundreds of thousands of ounces of additional demand a year by the mid 2030s. But we are not waiting for this demand to materialize on its own. Through our unique approach to market development, we shape future PGM demand through nurturing, scaling and sustaining a diverse set of new and existing demand segments. Our approach covers the full business life cycle from idea discovery to scale. At early stage, we assemble ecosystems by coordinating capital and talent around PGM centric ideas. For PGM businesses that are scaling up, we support them by providing growth capital deployed either directly or through AP Ventures. For relatively mature demand segments, we support by scaling and capturing the demand base. These activities are supported by two work streams shaping the business environment. The first is communication to create a positive and supportive narrative for the opportunities and secondly, policy advocacy to create a positive playing field for the growth of opportunity areas. Now let's turn to a specific example of accelerating PGM demand, the hydrogen economy. We coordinated the development and deployment of our own and others' capital to grow companies in the hydrogen sector. We created and spun out IP Ventures, which today has 15 high hydrogen usage companies in their portfolio. We are developing a fuel cell empowered 300 tonne haul truck for our own operations, which will enhance the application of the technology in heavy duty applications. We are also encouraging the development of hydrogen freight corridors. These are projects that aggregate demand for fuel cell road trucks from end users. This happens along a specific route with the appropriate refueling infrastructure to service those users. We are engaging with policymakers, trade associations and local authorities to create supportive regulatory environments, especially in the major early hydrogen adopter markets of The U. S, China, The EU and The UK and are playing a role in shaping the South African hydrogen strategy. Finally, we promote the cause for green hydrogen and fuel cells to business and public. As an example, we were one of the driving forces and founding members of the Hydrogen Council globally and the Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Association in China. Our market development approach is not only limited to hydrogen. There are multiple potential demand applications that offer a mix of short to long term PGM demand. To highlight but a few, we've got low loss computing, where new generation PGM enabled magnetic memories makes computation faster and lowers energy consumption. In the field of material science, alloyed have created a digital and physical alloy platform to accelerate the development of new PGM alloys. Line batteries working in the area of battery and storage is another opportunity area and our testing and R and D continue to show that palladium and potentially platinum can offer a unique formula creating a PGM demand opportunity in battery electric vehicles, increasing energy density and cyclability. At this point, I want to invite Prakashim to join me to take us into the next section of our strategy presentation. Thank you, Prakashim. Thank you, Natasha, and good afternoon, everyone. Moving to our strategic priorities, we will start with how we embed antifragility to increase the resilience of our operations and embed the strategy. And I think Natasha gave a key example of antifragility as we went through the load curtailment this morning. Anti fragility underpins our strategy with four cornerstones. The aim is to increase our ability to thrive through major disruption to ensure the successful delivery of our strategy. We focus on four areas: We are committed to eliminating fatalities and creating a zero harm work environment we continue to develop and deploy technology to exceed operational benchmark performance and improve sustainability assuring asset integrity and reliability is critical to enable safe, predictable and stable operations finally, we will unlock the potential of our people through upskilling, creating a purpose led culture and providing a future fit workplace. In the following slides, I will provide a brief overview of each of these. Creating a zero harm work environment is non negotiable, driven by our values. We know that all fatalities are preventable and we continue to embed this mindset. We acknowledge that our work is not done as this will always require significant leadership, focus and drive. We are improving safety outcomes by modernizing AmandeBird, where we are deploying technologies such as fall off ground indicators, two ton safety nets, LED lights and winch proximity detection. Through our operating model, we are reducing unplanned work from which we expect significant decrease in safety incidents. We are committed to driving positive change for our people motivated by our purpose. At the center of our approach to our people is a purpose led values driven and high performing culture. This feeds into four focus areas. Starting with the workplace, we are creating a modernized digital workplace driven by innovation. Secondly, we are simplifying the way we work by creating well defined work, clear accountabilities and structures to unlock safe operational delivery and innovation. To create a future fit organization, we are rolling out our data literacy training to create a fit for future workforce, and collectively, our colleagues have completed 3,000 modules to date. Finally, we are very conscious of the impact of modernization and automation on job opportunities. In addition to working very closely with our organized labor and ensuring reskilling opportunities for our employees, I believe this is closely related to the work we are doing in our communities. Our focus on local economic development through collaborative regional development is reflected in our aim to support the creation of five job opportunities outside the mine gate for every job inside the gate by 02/1930. Yvonne will address this further in the ESG section. We are announcing our asset reliability to create a platform for predictable, sustainable and safe operations underpinned by process safety. Recognizing our assets are at different levels of maturity and risk, we have adopted a risk based approach to asset management that is creating visibility on each asset's condition and risk status, prioritizing our work, considering the risk to safety, strategic importance and financial impact building assurance programs to prevent premature failure and to protect the asset over the full life cycle, taking into account the life of operation into consideration. This approach is enabled through our people and the use of appropriate technology, creating a proactive maintenance culture. We are redefining the future of mining through future smart mining. We are developing a response to a number of strategic challenges we are facing as a mining industry in the areas of water and energy security, decarbonization and the safety of our tailings facilities. We are reducing our energy and water and capital intensity across our mines And for example, at Mokala Kwena, our rollout of coarse particle rejection technology targets throughput increases of 5%, a roughly 8% reduction in energy and a 15% reduction in new water intake. Our bulk ore sorter targets 5% to 8% improvement in metal content of feed to the concentrators. To achieve our goal of achieving waterless mining, our major stakeholder is trialing hydraulic dry stacking at El Soldado, one of our sister mines, and we will benefit from these learnings and bring it to one of our sites. We are transforming into a truly data driven organization. For example, we are building digital twins to generate accurate, best operational recipes for our complex processing plants. This application is well advanced at Mocalakwena. Finally, we are rolling out innovation to continue to ensure each of our colleagues return home safely from work every single day with specific focus areas at Amandelberg to modernize conventional mining. I will now hand you back to Natasha. The wonders of the mask. Thank you, Prakashim. Moving next to maximizing value from our call, I will focus on a selection of some of our key assets. The foundation for our strategy is a strong base of high quality and diversified assets and capabilities from resource to market. We have the largest mineral resource of all precious metal producers globally. Our four own managed mining assets are competitively positioned on the primary cost curve and have delivered record financial returns in the last year. We have considerable diversity in our ore bodies, creating resilience through price cycles, whilst all our assets operate off a strong platinum and palladium base. Mogalakwena and Umki have higher base metal intensity, in particular nickel, while Zamandelbild and Mutotolo have higher rhodium intensity and chrome. Beyond our mining assets, we have the largest processing footprint of the integrated PGM producers creating optionality with significant potential. Finally, we have distinctive capabilities across our value chain inside our business and have access to world class capabilities within that broader Anglo American group. Mogalakwena is a world class polymetallic ore body, a mine of immense resource and size and quality holding cost a position. Its diversity of metals with a high concentration of base metals make it resilient to market shocks and will benefit from the global energy transition. The basket price for Mogalakwena over the last decade has been significantly higher than other Eastern Limb and Western Limb mines. We see further potential of this asset through our exploration activities with drilling continuing to define the ore body beyond our current mining operations. We are progressing six key work streams to realize the full potential of our flagship asset. Operational efficiency or P101 is improving mining and concentrating performance to benchmark in the near term and is foundational to our work at Mogalakwena. We are looking at how technology can be deployed complementary to expanding the concentrator capacity and maximizing the utilization of downstream processing. We are optimizing the mine plan and mitigating the impact of the future mine footprint. We're also advancing the potential of underground mining. Paramount to achieving this is resetting relationships with our communities and building valued partnerships. Our P101 initiatives are not only to meet but exceed industry best in class performance and we are already demonstrating results. We've designed detailed initiatives, set corresponding targets to set the cutting edge in operational performance. At Mogalakwena, this includes enhancing rope shovel and truck fleet performance and improving both throughput and recovery at our concentrators. We expect these improvements to result in around a 5% reduction in rand per tonne milled and up to 10% improvement in PGM production. Mogalakwena has been on a journey growing from 500,000 ounces to more than double that today. Going forward, we are evaluating options to further increase production by between 300,600 ounces through technology development and an optimal mine design. The described work streams support the potential for a further increase in production. The execution of what is a large integrated project considers the different levels of maturity of the different work streams, the capital intensity and broader ESG implications. Initial indications are that the capital expenditure between ZAR13 billion and ZAR23 billion will be required depending on the option chosen. We expect an attractive internal rate of return of between 2327%. This project remains subject to Board approval, which we anticipate will be towards the 2021. We will be deliberate and disciplined in the decisions we take for this asset, aligned with our extensive project evaluation and capital allocation framework. Looking now at Amandelbult and transitioning this asset to its modernized and mechanized future. Amandelbult is our second largest operation by production. Amandelbult has a strong foundation with a rich diversity of metals delivering the highest return on capital employed in 2020. Today, Omondelbulb is still mostly a conventional underground mine with the associated safety risk and is located on the fourth quartile of the primary producer cost curve. The mine will become modernized and mechanized to deliver consistent production in a more cost effective way. Modernization and mechanization will be fast tracked. Through five integrated work streams. Like all our operations, it will capture value from enhanced operational efficiency through P101. For example, we expect a 3% improvement in recoveries by 2025 relative to 2019. The modernization journey of Armando Build will see the asset transition from conventional mining to modern mining methods. This will be enabled by implementing the latest available technology and in house development developed innovations like timberless support, fast drilling, proximity detection to safeguard winch operations and a digital rollout across the mine. Creating a safer and more productive work environment, these initiatives will deliver meaningful benefits at Armandel Bolt. On safety, we have made steady progress in recent years with a 20% drop in total recordable case frequency injury rate from 2016 to 2020. We aim to continue this trajectory, eliminating fatalities and achieving zero harm. Conventional mining will be phased out by the 2022, a major milestone for us as there will be no conventional mining across our portfolio. Through the investment in mechanized life, life extension projects like 15 East project currently in execution by 02/1930, we expect over 30% of our volumes to come from mechanized operations. Productivity will almost double from four to eight square meters per employee, leading to a circa twenty percent decrease in unit cost per tonne. Wototoolo and Dubrochen is a mechanized mine with a long life and expansion options. Our efforts are focused on investing to develop Dubrochen to extend Wototoolo's life of mine, maintaining production scale and protect local employment. Otutolo's starting point is a competitive cost position with possible declining volumes in the years ahead. Our activities are across four work streams. We are debottlenecking the concentrate at Mototolo to increase throughput by circa 10%. We are developing the decline at De Brochen to replace declining Mototolo production. Looking further ahead, we are pursuing the possibility of further expanding concentrator capacity from 240,000 to 320,000 tonnes per month. And finally, we have developed the first line tailings storage facility at Mariesburg to ensure that groundwater is not contaminated and with the additional options for expansion. Productivity improvement and additional expansion potential at De Brochen leads us to expect an investment that Dubrochen will improve overall productivity at the combined Potatoolo Dubrochen operation by around 20% and increase PGM production by about 25%. The total investment for the project will be ZAR3.9 billion of CapEx over five years with an internal rate of return of between 20% to 30% at long term analyzed consensus prices. Our Unki mine is a large resource and competitively positioned on the cost curve. This operation is setting operational benchmarks and is a jewel in our portfolio. This year, we will complete the debottlenecking of the concentrator to increase throughput to two ten thousand tonnes per month. Looking ahead, we will drive further operational efficiencies to ensure this asset continues to set performance benchmarks. Umpi also recently became our first mine to achieve Irma 75 certification. Beyond our mining assets, we have an extensive processing footprint and an integrated value chain. This unrivaled scale creates opportunities to capture additional value. Our processing network provides significant opportunity with 10 ore inputs, seven key components in the process and more than 13 end products. We are making a shift in how we view our processing operations and aim to capture value from the multiple interlinked assets, leveraging data and advanced analytics. For example, optimizing material flows to capture additional value from co product development, exploring the production of battery grade nickel sulfide as an example, and minimizing energy and carbon intensity. While there's more work to be done to unlock the full potential of our processing assets, initial estimates indicate potential uplift for 5% EBITDAaL. The effort is underpinned by commitment to asset integrity and reliability with all our processing assets undergoing the risk based assessment presented earlier by Prakashim. At this stage, I will now hand over to Yvonne to talk to us about ESG. Thank you, Natasha, and good afternoon, everyone. Our ambition is to become a leader in ESG in the mining sector. As part of our updated strategic direction, we want to ensure that ESG is not a stand alone but rather at the center of the strategy. To date, our efforts across the ESG space have been recognized locally and globally by multiple organizations, and you can see some of these on the screen. However, our real success will be measured by stakeholders, and our ambition is to be the preferred investor for responsible investors. A business treasured by host communities, a responsible supplier to our customers and finally, operating with minimal impact on the environment. As part of this ambition to be a leader in the mining industry on ESG, we will embody the three pillars of our sustainable mining plan. Firstly, developing trust as a corporate leader, providing ethical value chains and improved accountabilities to the communities we work with. Secondly, we will enable thriving communities by improving their health, quality of education and access to employment opportunities. Beyond these clear targets, we want to reshape our approach to communities, working with them to co create sustainable livelihoods through a shared vision. Finally, maintaining a healthy environment by creating waterless, carbon neutral mines and delivering positive biodiversity outcomes. To shed more light on how we will enable thriving communities across our four pillars, let me paint our vision of what this could look like in the future. On stakeholder engagement and participation, we will have established a Stakeholder Accountability Forum by July 2022. Towards our efforts to create value for our stakeholders, we will improve health outcomes, facilitating the supply of drinkable water to all our communities through the Mapela Water Project. We have provided access to water to 70,000 people in the area. We will support schools in our host communities ensuring all are in the top 20 of state schools in their province. We will support the creation of employment opportunities, for example, through our Zimela enterprise development project, which aims to support the creation of 2,000 jobs by 2022. To protect value for our stakeholders, we will protect water resources for our host communities by radically reducing our own usage, for example, through deploying hydraulic dry stacking and coarse particle recovery as we are currently doing at Mogalakwena. Our mines will be carbon neutral through renewable energy production and reduced energy intensity by 02/1940. We are also investigating opportunities for our communities to play a larger role in our solar PV project through equity shareholding, skills development and provision of some jobs. Finally, we will put in place a long term land access and recycling plan and address legacy issues. Moving to our next priority, we will deliver carbon neutral production by 2040 and a thirty percent reduction in carbon emissions by 2030 relative to the 2016 baseline. We have made significant progress moving towards decarbonizing our value chain already, identifying opportunities across our value chain to decrease energy intensity with an 8% emission reduction already achieved from energy efficiency initiatives. Clean power through renewable energy generation to scale renewable adoption across our value chain. Our initial project is a 75 megawatt solar plant at Mogalakwena, which is already at request for proposal stage. Finally, we aim to lead the global mining industry in fuel cell truck adoption. We will start with Mogalakwena, where we aim to have a 40 truck rollout commencing in 2024. We currently have a proof of concept underway and expect first motion in the 2021. I will provide more details on the next slide. Carbon reduction delivers value through multiple mechanisms. Our initial estimates show that there is that show that these moves will deliver economic value with at least a net neutral NPV by decreasing exposure to risk electricity tariffs and carbon taxes. Beyond the economic value, this will also enable us to improve energy security and increase long term security for our products as customers and export markets push for lower carbon content. We are leading decarbonization efforts through our deployment of fuel cell trucks at Mogalakwena, a truly innovative and industry leading project. This is an integrated solution for our mine. The truck are energized through excess renewable energy production converted to hydrogen. These fuel cell trucks are zero carbon yet will be embedded on our existing truck design, ensuring no compromises on performance. Thank you. I will now hand over to Craig to shed more light on what our strategic moves will deliver in terms of value creation. Thank you, Yvonne, and good afternoon, everyone. Our strategy has been quantified to define the value we will deliver for all stakeholders. I will now take you through some of the highlights of what we aim to achieve over the next ten years. Starting with production, we will maintain our production scale. We expect overall operational improvements and expansions to result in steadily increasing production over the next ten years. Today, our attributable PGM production is approximately 3,000,000 ounces and we expect to expand this to 3,600,000 ounces over the next ten years. This despite the expected winding down of our Kroonzal operation during this period. The expansion will be achieved through deliberate capital investment in a manner that improves our mining margin and our competitive positioning. The strategy will follow our capital allocation framework. This disciplined approach is extremely important to us and instills our commitment to embedding anti fragility. The approach allocates free cash flow first to sustaining capital to maintain the asset integrity, following that a dividend and then discretionary capital options provided that they meet the strict investment criteria. Thereafter, in the event of excess cash, this will be returned to shareholders. So we expect our strategy to require increased capital expenditure over the next three years, as guided to you earlier in the presentation where I set out what the SIB looks like for the next three. These investments will initially focus on ensuring the reliability and other staying business commitments as well as our already approved discretionary capital. In the longer term, we see additional optionality for further discretionary CapEx. Our commitment to the base dividend payout rate of 40% of headline earnings remains intact. We're also working to ensure our ESG priorities receive the right level of resourcing and focus on our capital allocation framework. Our trend of delivering exceptional operational and financial outcomes for all our stakeholders. Firstly, we will achieve an important milestone by 2022 that all our assets will either be mechanized or modernized. Through our operational improvements and innovation phase, another important objective is ensuring that all our assets are in the lower half of the primary producer cost curve by 2025. This is an important outcome which will allow us to remain immune to deep market downsides. Ultimately, we'll continue to deliver strong returns by maintaining our scale of production along with an improved cost position. Our EBITDA margins are expected to remain stable between 3040% based on long term consensus prices, while a strong through the cycle ROCE of above 25% will be achieved. As part of our commitment to delivering shared value, we will ensure as a priority that we co create thriving communities. For example, in 2020, we supported the creation of 1,400 jobs outside the mine gate and will look to support the creation of five jobs off-site for everyone on-site by 2,030. Accompanying this will also drive sustainability of our operations. For example, we'll look to reduce we expect a 30% reduction in CO2 emissions by 02/1930. Thank you. I'll now hand you back to Natasha to conclude. Thank you, Craig. In closing, delivering our strategy stakeholders and move us closer to achieving our purpose. We believe that the world needs our metals to enable a greener future. We are building off our strong foundation with an industry leading asset portfolio and have leading capabilities in all elements of our value chain. With our track record of delivery, we will have safe, stable production from a fully modernized and mechanized portfolio, maximizing value across the integrated value chain delivered shared value through our sustainability pillars of being a trusted corporate leader, co creating thriving communities and enabling a healthy environment. We will further cement our leadership position with all our assets at the bottom half of the cost curve and deliver industry leading through the cycle returns on capital by being deliberate and disciplined in the decisions we make. We are excited about the future potential of our products and our world class assets will enable us to deliver value for our people, our communities and our shareholders. Thank you for your time today. Thank you again for your patience with the interrupted presentation. I will now hand over to Emma to facilitate the question and answer session. Okay. Thank you, everybody. Could I please ask Bethany, could we go to the line and see if we've got some questions on the conference call, please? Absolutely. We have got some questions coming through. We have our first question from Adrian Hammond from SBG Securities. Adrian, please go ahead. Good afternoon, everyone. Natasha, thanks for the insights. I'm very curious to hear a bit more about your outlook for hydrogen demand, PGM demand. You certainly paint a very bullish picture and given that you're ramping up some 20% over the next ten years. So you certainly have conviction on demand. So I just want to unpack your 6,000,000 ounces growth you see coming for fuel cells. What are your underlying assumptions that outlook in terms of factoring adoption of fuel cells versus battery electric? And what sort of total car sales do you have in that number? I'm also curious to understand whether what the CapEx will cost for your CO2 emission reduction plans, particularly the 75 megawatt plant you have planned for Mogalakwena. And just curious to understand how do these sorts of plants how the economics stack against Eskom on an NPV basis. I'm sure you've done a calculation. Thanks. Thanks, Adrian. And I'm going to pull the team in to help me answer some of his questions. I'll ask Prakashim to come in with the capital and a little bit more detail on the 75 megawatt solar plant at Mogalakwena. But let me start off with the assumptions around this. I think it's important to recognize that we the certainty of how the drivetrain is going to develop is still pretty low. I think it is important, and that's why we went into the typical applications on our Slide 11 of our slide deck. So what are the attributes of that will benefit batteries versus hydrogen? And the assumptions that we've made is in the kind of attributes that allows with high energy density, faster recharging times to allow for bigger heavy duty application. If you look at distribution of hydrogen in your typical hydrogen corridors, it allows for a very focused and a good application from a heavy duty application. If you compare that to battery vehicles, we do have a view that there is space for both drivetrains in the electrification of the drivetrain going forward with batteries more specifically designed for shorter kind of distance. So that is the baseline. I think you would have seen the development of the views on the hydrogen economy changing very quickly in the near term or in the recent past. And that's why what we have done is to look, well, what are the kind of success factors that we will have to achieve to make the hydrogen economy a reality. And that will drill down into the cost of hydrogen both produced and at the fuel station. And we believe with the development that we've seen on driving down the cost that this is a total possibility. From that point of view, we have made some assumptions. We have made assumptions of an uncertain future, and we've put that in the slide in Slide 13. So what are the assumptions? And with those assumptions saying, well, if it's 15% of vehicles of heavy medium to large passenger vehicles or 5% of small, this will be the kind of consumption based on the current knowledge of thrifted loadings on hydrogen fuel cells. So this is an uncertain future that we are having a view on why how it could unfold. I think it is a we are bullish because of all the signs that we see around us from both governments and private sector. It is a future that we have to consider thinking about how we develop the future of our mines. And that is the kind of framework that we're thinking of taking it forward. Prakashim, do you want to take the question on I don't expect anyone to have the answer. I was I was just also just curious to to know. Was just saying I I don't think anyone has the answer yet specifically. But Yeah. Is there any policy that underpins your assumptions, policies from governments? I think I'm probably gonna ask I'm gonna shift to Benny. I'm not sure if we can quickly shift to Benny. I think he's either the answer is yes. Can we shift to Benny? He's online. He's not with us in the room to take that question. Please, Benny. Yes. Yes. Okay. Thanks. Sorry, Benny. Yes. So specifically, your question was what are the underlying assumptions here, right? And so the underlying assumptions for markets where we did the what ifs is about 100,000,000 vehicles, right, light vehicles, of which then a certain percentage is smaller, certain percentage is larger. That's one. And the second is what do we see from governments? Well, we see really a lot from governments. And the trailblazer in this is actually China to maybe not to the surprise of many. The Chinese government has very clear targets specified in their five year plans. We're just switching from the thirteen to the fourteen five year plans, which cover 2021 to 2025 now. And there is a very specific target in NEVs in their new energy vehicles. These are hybrids, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles. And they are calculated. You have to achieve a certain percentage of your sales, which is growing every year in 'twenty one and 'twenty three, 'twenty three, etcetera, which are NEVs. But they are not counted as one vehicle is just one unit. One vehicle is with credits gets a credit score. And so for example, a fuel cell electric vehicle counts for 2.5 cars, a battery electric vehicle for 1.5 and a hybrid that accounts for one in EV. So you see very clearly that there is a vision of the Chinese government to push fuel cell electric vehicles because they have certain advantages over battery electric vehicles, especially in the heavy duty sector, right, where basically we see there is no alternative for long distance heavy duty trucks to diesel. So that's going to be either diesel or either fuel cells. And in passenger cars, we always portrayed as being in competition with BEVs, but we don't think so. We think they're really complementary. So as Natasha said, in the small car segment, it will be very BEV focused in the larger cars and everything that's long distance and heavy growth will be fuel cells. So you see that quite a lot in China, I would say. There is a clear plan, also a national plan for hydrogen refueling stations because that is in the chicken and egg, that's the egg. You now see it in the EU as well with the new Green Deal, where they're targeting hydrogen refueling stations along freight corridors. And in South Africa and in The U. K, we see the first steps towards such initiatives as well. Interesting. Thanks. Prakashi? I think we stated that our carbon reduction is at a net neutral NPV. And by that, we mean that we are busy working through the business cases, but we think that we are confident that there's accretive value across multiple sources. I think the source of the electrical tariff, where we're seeing a 2x on average inflation increase over the last ten years, we're seeing in the decreased exposure of carbon tax, and we're not sure what legislation will do to move towards more developed markets that will increase the tax quite significantly and improved energy security. I think the energy security coming from the instances of supply disruptions and production disruptions from it. So I think taking those factors in, we're quite confident that we could get to a net neutral NPV. On the 75 megawatt and the RFP that's out, we're also looking at allowing for an independent power producer system, which allow us to then expand more rapidly across it. We're seeing from the tenders received approximate cost of between 70,000,000 to $90,000,000 and an electric tariff of about $0.5 to about 0 per kilowatt hour. That's what we're presently seeing. We will conclude by probably April, having a firm idea on how we move forward. Perfect. Bethany, I think there are a couple. Thanks so much. Thanks, Adrian. Is there another question on the line? Yes. We have a few questions on the conference call line. The next one is going to Patrick Mann from Bank of America. Patrick, your line is open. Good day. Thank you very much for the presentation. I wanted to ask a question, see if we can get some more information on Slide 44. So this is the growth from the 3,000,000 ounces today to 3,600,000 ounces in 2013. Can you maybe give us a bit of a breakup? You know, how do you see the different assets contributing to this? And then I'm also just quite interested that there's net growth coming from the JV portion considering Grundahl's winding down. Right? So so should we expect that Modikwa has the potential to increase massively from here? Just trying to wrap my head around what the production base looks like in 02/1930. Patrick, I'll try and answer that. So just working through the increase in the production, So yes, as I said, we produced about 3,000,000 ounces today through the productivity improvements, particularly at Mogalakwena as an example where we're anticipating a 10% increase in production coming through from those. So that will be one of the drivers. And then just to your point around then the joint ventures. The joint ventures actually we don't see any significant additional production coming through. It's actually a negative in the graph we probably needed just to make it a little bit clearer. But what we're illustrating there is Corindal actually coming towards the end of its life. And then that is partially offset by the additional throughput coming through from Mogalakwena, which you will see that we've spoken about. And there's a little bit of volume coming through as a consequence of the Unki debottlenecking project that we hope to complete this year as well as the De Brochen work that we're looking at finalizing by the first half of this year and then hoping to take that into execution in 2021. So that will also add a degree of production to come through. Okay. Great. Sorry. I I read that as a positive. Relooking at it now, I I do see it's a negative. That's embarrassing. Sorry about that. I can understand. So just to just to double check, how much of increase in this net growth from Mogalakwena? That just the 10%? Or have you got something for the 0.3 to the 0.6 debottlenecking project? Yes. So you've got the so if I just take you if you just look at the Mogalit Kwena slide, so reduced roughly 1,200,000 PGM ounces last year. We look at the 10% improvement coming through there, and sort of take us up to say 1,300,000 ounces and then you've got the potential coming through from an expansion in terms of the option that we're looking at of an additional 300 to 600,000 ounces and that therefore contributes to that overall net increase of 3,600,000. Thank you very much. Perfect. I think we'll take one more question from the line. The last question from the line comes from Dominic O'Cain from JPMorgan. Dominic, your line is open. Hi, guys. Just just a follow on question to slide 44. The, the increase of 3.6 by 2030 and the and the comments around the the move away from conventional mining. What's the what's the projected impact on headcount by 02/1930? And then and then second question, obviously, there's there's a range of outcomes on Mogalakwena project scope. Could you maybe just give us a little bit more insight into how you're sort of thinking about some of those range of outcomes and the and the and the, I guess, the economic impact to some of those outcomes, specifically IRR? Dominic. I will start off with some of the answer, and I will also then ask Craig to come in on some of the financials. If we look at our Mano Bolt, the journey to modernization for starters will not impact employees as it targets alternative and more modern ways to continue our narrow vein stoking mining method. The future on 15E that you will see going forward at about 30% of our mining would be mechanized by 2030 will have an impact potentially on labor. And I think that's why the slide that Prakashim has spoken about on how do we take our people on our onto the journey into our future. I think it's important to recognize that we need to do work in our communities. So the principle here is that people do not necessarily have to earn their income inside the mine, but how do we rather play our role in the same period of time in generating job opportunities outside the mine and in that allowing us to make sure that we can continue our drive to efficiency and safety and not to impact the society at large. As far as Mogalakwena is concerned, it is true, we have given a wide range. And this range is because it is dependent on our view going forward on the optimized mine plan. We are mitigating for the impact of potentially mega pits and that mitigation is coming in the form of exploring underground potential. So what we have explained here is two bookends of how the project could potentially deliver value. It will be driven by an optimized mine plan. It will further be driven by trade off between on size, design and technology application for our concentrator, the downstream and downstream processing capacity. Once we have and that's the work that we're doing towards the end of the year, understand the trade offs of that, we will take a disciplined approach to make a decision on the best way to take the first step into the future of Mogalakwena. I think looking at the quality of the asset, we need to just consider that it is really a first step or the next step in a very long future. And we have the potential to create a very bright future for Mogalakwena. And having the opportunity to review all of these options would be an important portion of that. We will be taking a decision at the end of the year on what the potential on what the optimized mine plan is and what the future potential what the design and size of a concentrator would be. Many of the other work streams will continue in parallel with that. And that is why we've given two bookends to say, well, this is how the future of Mogalakwena potentially can develop. Do you want to Yes. Dominic, just to answer your question. Natascha, do you want mind to if I just ask a quick follow on question? Sorry. Or do really sorry. Sorry. There's a bit of a a lag on the line. Can I can I just ask one quick follow-up question? Thank you for for that for that response. And and I I suppose, just as a follow on question, obviously, given the wide range, specifically around the CapEx, thirteen to twenty three billion rand, does that have any implications at all for for the long term dividend policy? I if you come in at the lower end of the range of lower CapEx, lower project, smaller project scope, do you still retain a 40% dividend payout? Our disciplined principle will continue to apply, Dominique, that we will do and I think Craig has elaborated on that earlier, where we will look at SIB and making sure that we protect the integrity of our assets, ensure sustainability and only when growth opportunities are better for us to apply capital to our own growth opportunities against that disciplined capital framework, we will do that. In all cases, the 40% dividend policy will hold and it will only impact anything more or in addition to the 40% Baes dividend. Thank you. Sorry Dominic, I was just going to comment on just with regards to the potential returns of the project. So clearly obviously the book ends and we've given an indicative IRR of 23% to 27% based on what those potential production range could be. Obviously the capital forecast, that's clearly something that we're looking to firm up as part of the feasibility study work that we have underway. And if I may just reemphasize the point that Natasha made is that clearly if we generate excess cash, we don't have a better utilization for that cash that doesn't meet our investment criteria, we will return that cash back to shareholders. And that's what we demonstrated back in 2020 when we paid that special dividend. Thanks, Dominic. Thanks very much, Vaikeya. Thanks. Thanks. I'll take a couple of questions from the webcast and then go back to the line. But the first question is for you, Natasha, from Patrick Mann. What does it mean that Amandibol becomes fully modernized? And would it not be considered conventional anymore? So basically, how exactly will it be different REPRESENTATIVE:] from a conventional mine? Patrick, if the principle around modernization was developed to address two things. First thing is safety of employees and secondly, the impact on efficiency. If we look at the mine reasons for the fatalities that we have in conventional underground mines, it is around rock condition and support where our support is inadequate or our processes to install support is inadequate to keep our people safe. The second area is in the area of winch operations that we see our highest incidents of very serious incidents or fatalities. Those two areas are the areas that we're targeting with modernized mining. Firstly, looking at alternative ways of blasting and in this case using emulsions that gives you far better ground condition. Netting and active support and also the installation of netting and active support to be more efficient and faster to make it easier for our colleagues underground to install. And then lastly, and these are number of these, but I'm just highlighting a couple of the key ones. Lastly, it is around how we make our winch operations safer. And we have in house developed in house innovation that is the proximity detection around our winches that will stop the winches if anybody comes in the pathway of our winch operations. These are the kind of activities that ultimately not only impact making the workplace safer, it makes it more economic, easier for our colleagues underground to use and ultimately also have an impact on efficiency. So essentially, it's still narrowvine stoping, but with the components of narrowvine stoping addressing the current risk that we have. I hope that that helps. Craig, I've got a question for you here, which is could you just provide some more guidance on the CapEx profiles for the Mogalakwena expansion and the Dibrochen project? Certainly. So if I can also just we provided detailed guidance for our project CapEx for the next few years. It's set out on Slide 72 of the pack. But effectively what we're illustrating is we've clearly got our investments in SIB capital which I referenced a little bit earlier. In addition to that, we've got continuation of our breakthrough projects which we're looking to deliver value from and then we've got some life ex projects. So if we just look at the capital forecast for 2021 for example, we're estimating spending between R10 billion and R11 billion. That thing declines a little bit next year to between R9 and R10 billion and same for 2022. However, if you overlay the potential sorry, the anticipated approval of the Broca project, which we will hope to do in the first half of this year, As Natasha said, that's billion. We'd look to spend that over the five years, the bulk of it probably spent in the next two to three years. And then you take the Mogalakwena expansion into account where we referenced the ZAR13 billion to the ZAR23 billion that's in addition to that. And therefore that expenditure will come through 2022, 2023 and 2024. And I'd say probably the peak CapEx year in 2023 and reducing marginally in 2024. And then long term, quite a sustainable staying business capital likely to be between billion and ZAR7.5 billion. Thanks, Craig. I've got a question for Benny now. So Benny, hopefully we can come over to you. It's from Uncuteco. And Uncuteco asks, considering that this is not the first wave of interest in the hydrogen economy, what is your view on major risks that could derail the current momentum on both mobility and energy generation? Yes. Thank you for the question. Can you all hear me? All right. Yes. Yes? Okay, good. Yes, can hear you. Yes. Thank you. Yes, it is not the first time that there is a hype. You can call it a hype, if you want, around hydrogen or excitement around hydrogen, but it's a different kind of excitement, right? So there is a massive spending now and policy and potential spending and funds made available from a government side, and there was a massive movement of investment of private capital. So I would say it is really different than what it was before. One of the key reasons for this is I think there is such a strong realization right now that carbon emissions will have to come down. Thirty years ago, people talked about it, but it wasn't as serious and as imminent, the whole climate crisis thirty, forty years ago, as it is right now. And I think that is the key driver that is pushing this forward. So to answer your specific question, I think the answer is already embedded a little bit in the precursor that I just gave, is what could be the threat? What could be the threat that would completely derail hydrogen and would basically say, well, hydrogen is not going to happen? And I think the only theoretical threat that I can think about that would put a stop to anything hydrogen is that people would say, you know, this climate change is not serious. And, you know, we've had ice ages and warming up in the past before human activity. So this is all just a fairy tale, and we just keep on doing like we're doing today. I think that would put a stop to anything hydrogen because why would you go and look for this? But I think and then you hear it in my tone of voice and you see it probably in my body language if you have a good video feed, and I don't think and I don't think many people think that this is feasible. So that is the only theoretical derailment that I could see, right, in general. In mobility, well, what we can see is that if you want to decarbonize mobility, there is only two possibilities, right? It is battery electric vehicles or fuel cell electric vehicles. Both are electric vehicles. It's different how you store the energy that you have with you. And the reason that we think and everybody think there is a nice chunk of this mobility market segment for fuel cell electric vehicles is that fuel cells can do certain things that batteries cannot do. It is to be very practical and have range, a long range available at your fingertips in two, three minutes because customers do not fuel diesel or petrol right now. What you put in your tank is range. People don't care what you put in there as long as in three minutes, ups and you can go 600, 700, 800 kilometers. That's what people want. What you put in there is the same for them. So in the highly theoretical case, that battery, there would be the miracle battery invented that could give people or passenger cars in three minutes 800 kilometer of range or a battery that could give a truck in five or seven minutes, like today with diesel, eight or 1,000 kilometer of range. In that highly theoretical case, there would also be no more need for hydrogen in transportation. But for all the battery experts and energy experts that we talk to in the world, that is not on the immediate horizon, never say never. But by that time, if that would happen, we are pretty sure that through further expansion of PGMs in batteries, in which we are now engaged, that PGMs will have a role to play or might have a role to play in the Miracle battery as well. So to cut a long story short, we think hydrogen is here and is here to stay and will have serious role in energy and in transportation decarbonization. Thank you. The next question, I think I'm going to direct to Prakashim. I'm actually going to combine two, if it's possible. So the first question is from Ian Rosseau, Barclays. It says, It looks like the hydrogen fuel cell truck at Mogalakwena has been delayed by more than six months versus previous plans of starting trials in early twenty twenty one. What's driving this? And then the second question is just related to the solar plant. And could you please give some more color towards the approval process and permits to run a PV plant larger than one megawatt? Okay. I think thank you, Emma. I'll take the first one. Any plant above one megawatt needs both regulatory approval through NRSA and needs a full EIA done. And we anticipate that will take between twelve months. The limiting factor to that is having your service provider because NRSA requirements are the service provider appointed commercial agreements in place and a full financial business case to be presented for them to give approval and the EIA confirmed. So it will be a parallel process. We think twelve to fifteen months, and we think there's an opportunity there to allow us to get legislative support to try and expedite the project as an opportunity. The second question, Emma, just Sorry, it was just on the delays to the fuel cell truck outside. The delay on the fuel so again, a multidimensional project with development on ground to allow for hydrogen generation, small scale solar below one megawatt storage and COVID related delays. And COVID related delays, especially in the civil space, where, again, through the COVID period, through the lockdown period, no construction activity on-site, and I think followed up by, and to be practical, a lot of vendors going into business rescue, which has sort of extended the period by which we've got the on-site construction concluded and the drivetrain coming from overseas, again, impacted by COVID confirmation of integrating the drivetrain, and therefore, we're moving it to the second half of the year. You. Natasha, I've got a question for you from Adrian Hammond, which is just can you provide an update on your bulk ore sorting technology? Adrian, at the moment, we've got a full scale demonstration plant up and running at Mogalakwena, and we are in the process of demonstrating its application on a full scale basis. So we are generating data as we speak, and we'll be able very soon to understand exactly what the outcome of that would be. It's an important part of our future of Mogalakwena project and we do see that the alignment with this full scale demonstration that's up and running will align very well with our decision making towards the end of the year on the scale and size of the plant. Perfect. I think I can see that there are a couple of more questions on the conference call. So Bethany, can I please hand over to you just to take a couple of those questions as we have about twelve minutes left? Of course, the next question comes from Leroy Mghini from HSBC. Profile that you have on Slide 32, where you've got Mutotolo volumes coming down and the Brochen volumes increasing almost as replacement production. But then the next slide speaks about the Brochen having a 25% increase in production. So that how much of that 25% increase I'm trying to understand how much of that is replacement, how much of that is growth. So should we look at the combination of the two increasing by 25? Leroy, that first portion, you are correct, would be replacement capital. There is a 20% productivity improvement that will lead to that increasing throughput. And then there is an opportunity to expand from a two forty kilotonnes per month to three twenty kilotonnes per month. That's something we have not built into our plans, but certainly an opportunity for us. I think, Leroy, just to add to what Natasha said, certainly as we look from the production profile in that ten year period, we do see higher production coming through at Mototolo as we have both the continuation of the existing Mototolo infrastructure and then on top of that you've got the Dubrochen. But as then the Wawa shaft closes down towards the end of the decade, you'll then see the Dobrochin as being a sort of a replacement long term out. But in that ten year period, you do see that additional production coming through. Thanks for that. And then my last question is just looking at a lot of your targets, it looks like you could achieve most of them by just selling Amandelbult. So is there a specific reason was that considered? Is there a specific reason why you still choose to keep it in your portfolio? UNIDENTIFIED We believe that Amandelbult has got a very specific position in our portfolio specifically also around the diversification of our products. And if you consider the future of potential future of platinum in hydrogen, that future we believe we'll make certain of by driving it down the cost curve and modernizing it to address the safety aspects. So at the moment, we don't have any plans to not have Amandel built into our future portfolio. All right. Thank you. Thanks, Bethany. The next question comes from Richard Hatch from Berenberg. Would you like me to open it? Please. Yes, thank you. Richard, your line is open. Yes, cool. Thanks a lot and thanks for the presentation. Just got a few questions. First one is just the CapEx slide on Slide 45. Can you just clarify if that does or does not include waste stripping? And if it doesn't, can you give us some guidance on the waste stripping profile over that five year period? And second question is just on cost inflation. What kind of cost inflation are you seeing at this point in time? And how do you model that into your forecast? And then the last one is just on the processing capacity. Can you just remind us where the bottlenecks are in the processing capacity and what you're doing to address that if you need to? Thanks. UNIDENTIFIED Do want to take the first bit and I'll take the question? Okay. So Richard, the CapEx slide does not include waste stripping. So just as a reminder, we spent R2.5 billion dollars in capitalized waste stripping in 2020. We're looking at that increasing to between R2.8 billion and R3.1 billion in 2022 and 2023 it would be a sort of a similar level. It's clearly obviously also dependent on what the outcome is of the optimized mine plan and therefore that will be a consideration that we'll take into account as we're looking at the future of Mogalakwena and so we'll provide more guidance once we've landed the future of Mogalakwena in terms of future capsized waste. In terms of your points around cost inflation, so cost inflation in the industry last year and what we saw in our own operations as probably CPI plus 4%, 4% to 5% as a result of the impact of labor, also the electricity tariff increases although that was partly ameliorated because of the lower diesel prices. Going forward, part of our P101 objectives through driving the operational efficiencies and through improving the productivity of our assets, We're looking at sort of really trying to minimize the impact of inflation and sort of the target would probably be around about CPI plus 2% is probably a fair evaluation of what the future is. Clearly, our focus around electricity and security of supply there, but also the opportunities with regards to ameliorating some of the increases we see coming through Eskom, a key priority in keeping those unit costs below where you would only see mining inflation go. As far as the processing bottlenecks are concerned, I think Richard, it depends. And this is a typical thing of a metallurgist or a geologist on the one hand, but on the other hand, kind of answer to a simple question. But it does depend on what we see coming down the value chain. At the moment, we have the slack cleaning furnace. It's not a true bottleneck, but it is building work in progress because we're not we are dependent on that to get to all our wax through the value chain. If we then consider the future of Mogalakwena, the two areas that need some work, firstly, be that magnetic concentrator plant at the BMR and then also building additional capacity for ICP by debottlenecking our current ICP facilities. So those are the current bottlenecks. Part of our trade offs for Mogalakwena will consider capital that's required in downstream processing and that we do not necessarily want to treat a significant downscale expansion capital. Okay. But I guess that the any kind of concentrator expansions are included within the range of Mogalakwena expansion Yes. CapEx, If you're talking concentrator capacity, dry docks are included into the yes. Okay, brilliant. Thanks for your time. Thanks, Richard. Bethany, I think we'll take a last question from the line, and then we'll have to wrap up there. So can we take one last question? Yes. The question comes from Shilan Modi from UBS. Shilan, please go ahead. Afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. On Slide 46, I'm just trying to square out some of the numbers. So your EBITDA margin guidance is effectively guided up for the next five and ten years, but your ROCE guidance is guided down. Now a few slides before that, you're talking about uplift in volumes. Is that ROCE being guided down mainly because of the CapEx numbers that you're putting through? So effectively, the CapEx the additional CapEx is providing a lower ROCE than your base currently? Yes, Sheila, that's correct. This is really the impact of the expansionary CapEx that we would look to expand over the next few years. So that is the key driver around it. Okay. Thanks. And then if we if we look at Slide 45 and we compare that to Slide 72, is it fair to assume that you're gonna have about R10,000,000,000 in CapEx on average per year for the next five years? Excluding waste mining? Yes, excluding waste mining and then obviously excluding the expansion projects, particularly for Mogalakwena. Okay. Cool. And then just last one for me. The CO2 net reduction target on Slide 46, can you give us a breakdown of what percentage of the reduction come from mining, concentrating, smelting and refining? And then can you also give us an idea of what comes from the hydrogen trucks that you plan to deploy? So think, Sushilan, we probably don't have the details split between mining and processing. So could we We'll come back to you on that But actually on Slide 41, we outlined where we see the potential benefits coming through from energy efficiency and the clean power as well as the impact of the fuel cell adoption at Mogalakweta. And that gives you an indication in terms of how we see the potential reductions then materializing over the next ten years. Thanks. Fair enough. I was kind of asking the breakdown mainly so that we can like track it over time and effectively I would imagine, like, from the mining side, the hydrogen trucks would provide quite a big benefit. And then from the smelting and refining side, if you could, you know, deploy solar plants to generate at least some of the power there, then you'd also get a benefit. So that's kind of where I was alluding to. Yes. And Shilan, I think the other addition to that is the P101 work we're I doing around think the other addition to that is just the P101 work we're doing around recovery and mass pools. Is just reducing the volume that we need to smell that will obviously also from an energy intensity point of view even before decarbonization just reduce our carbon generation. So that would definitely be the pathway. And the technology benefits? Yes. And there you go. The technology benefits will play a role That's in right, yes. Thank you very much. I think we've come to time now. So we will wrap that up. And if anyone has any further questions, please feel free to send them through to me, and we will get back to you. But thank you, everyone, and good afternoon.

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