Earnings Call: H1 2020

Jul 27, 2020

Good morning. And by way of introduction, I am Natasha Fulyan, the CEO of Anglo American Platinum. Thank you for joining the Anglo American Platinum twenty twenty Interim Results Presentation. Today, I'm joined by Craig Miller, our Finance Director, and together, we will go through the performance of the company for the 2020 and provide further guidance. I would like to draw your attention to the cautionary statement, which we will appreciate if you could take the time and read in full. Before we start, I would like to take a moment on behalf of everyone at Anglo American Platinum to pay our respects to the victims of the COVID-nineteen virus. We extend our deepest condolences to their family, friends and colleagues. We have faced significant headwinds in the first six months of 2020 with the impact of COVID-nineteen and the temporary shutdown of the ACP. Yet despite these challenges, our performance highlights the resilience of our business. We have reported zero fatalities at our own managed operations. We are proud of the work we've been doing to support our employees and host communities during the pandemic. And to ensure we look after their well-being, we have paid R1,200,000,000 on salaries and benefits to people not working during lockdown and invested $250,000,000 on COVID-nineteen measures, of which ZAR 55,000,000 was invested in our host communities. The fundamentals for the PGM market remain robust despite the impact of COVID-nineteen globally. And whilst PGM prices were volatile in the period, the PGM dollar basket price increased by 56%. The strong price underpinned our resilient financial performance with a net cash position of ZAR11.3 billion after paying ZAR11.1 billion in dividends in March. Considering our disciplined and value focused approach to capital allocation, the Board has declared an interim dividend based on 40% of headline earnings aligned to our dividend policy equal to R2.8 billion. The company's core value of safety starts with a primary focus to eliminate fatalities. In the first half of the year, we achieved zero fatalities at our own managed operations. This has taken our fatality free period to six twenty days despite the challenges and safety risks brought about by shutting down and restarting operations due to the lockdowns. Tragically, we did have one fatality at the joint venture operation, Kruenall, and we send our condolences to Gjalson and Darnie's family, friends and colleagues. We continue to work with our joint venture partners to improve safety at these operations. We saw a reduction in our injury frequency rates with a total recordable case injury frequency rate down fifteen percent since 2019 to two point two four per one million hours worked. Whilst we are proud of our safety achievements, we do not take these results for granted and will continue to pioneer technology, digitization and modernized operations to further improve safety. The health, safety and well-being of our employees and contractors is at the heart of our approach to dealing with the COVID-nineteen pandemic. We are focused on three main aspects: preventing the spread of COVID-nineteen in the workplace and in our host communities responding to outbreaks and planning for the critical recovery phase to ensure we play our part in supporting economic recovery and livelihoods in our communities. We developed our comprehensive We Care program in close collaboration with a range of stakeholders to identify and address the areas of greatest need. We have invested $250,000,000 in industry leading measures to limit the spread of the virus at the workplace and in our communities. These investments include our own testing laboratories, protective masks, hand sanitizers and isolation and quarantine facilities. COVID-nineteen has highlighted the serious needs in our communities, which requires collective response effort. We have invested around 55,000,000 in initiatives to look after our local communities with our efforts including water and food supply, providing assistance to local clinics and hospitals, COVID-nineteen education and awareness campaigns and supporting victims of gender based violence. We are also working on extending our response plan to beyond the pandemic, focusing on job training for employment opportunities and regional development planning to enhance local economic activity. Our responses have enabled us to work in new ways with our stakeholders, and I believe we are investing in partnerships and solutions that will continue to benefit our communities long after the pandemic is over. A challenging first half saw our metal in concentrate production decrease 25% to 1,600,000 PGM ounces. This was primarily due to the shutdown of operations in South Africa and Zimbabwe in response to COVID-nineteen. By the June, production levels at our own mine operations were around 80% of normal capacity, and we expect this to increase to over 95% by the end of the year as we benefit from a high proportion of open pit and mechanized production. Our refined PGM production, excluding tolling, decreased by 49% to 1,000,000 ounces. This was largely due to the impact of the ACP repairs as well as Eskom load shedding in the first quarter. These stoppages haven't resulted in lost production, but a buildup in work in progress inventory, which is expected to be released and refined by the 2021. Despite these headwinds, we achieved an all in sustaining cost for the company of a negative $480 per platinum ounce sold, highlighting the sizable margin we continued to generate. When South Africa announced the national lockdown, Mogalakwena was granted permission to operate the North Concentrator, which remained in production by drawing down on all stockpiles. Thereafter, a gradual increase in operational activity was granted. And by the June, the mine was operating at 100% production levels and is expected to continue at this level. As a result, the mine was less impacted by the national lockdown and only experienced an 8% reduction in PGM production. PGM production decreased by 48% to 217,800 PGM ounces. At the June, Amandel Bolt was operating at 50%. A measured and safe approach has been taken in ramping up the mine, which ensured the operation has not had to close due to an outbreak of COVID-nineteen. By considering safety and hygiene protocols established for COVID-nineteen, by the end of the year, the mine should reach production levels of around 85%. On top of addressing the impact of COVID-nineteen, we recognize there is more work to do and improved performance at our Mondelebult. Implementing modernized mining equipment in a conventional mining environment as well as a mechanized section within Tumela 15 East will help repositioning the mine to become a safer, more efficient and more productive operation. PGM production at Mototolo decreased by 24 lasted six weeks, we are focused on building strong relationships and trust going forward. At the June, Mototolo Mine was operating at a production level of around 90% and should be at full production by the July. When Zimbabwe announced a national lockdown on the March 28, Ngki mine conducted a safe and measured shutdown to care and maintenance, losing nine days of mining production. With effect from 07/2020, however, the government recognized mining as an essential service, and Ongi was able to ramp up to full production. As a result, Ongi PGM production decreased by 16% for the first half to 80,300 PGM ounces, and by the June was operating at full production. Processing capacity was severely impacted in the first half by the temporary closure of the ICP for repairs. In February, the Pfizer IA unit was damaged following an explosion within the converter, and it was immediately closed. The Phase B unit was recommissioned to take over and subsequently experienced two separate water leak incidents, which presented a high explosion risk. Each time, there were no injuries and the decision made to close the ICP to ensure an ongoing safe operating environment to protect our employees and the integrity of the plant. Following repair work, the ICP FASB unit was able to safely ramp up with operations now at full capacity. We want to ensure we have no uncontrolled events and are implementing technology, measurement systems and greater automation to ensure a proactive and predictive control environment. This will result in stable operations that better protects our assets and our people. We will remain cautious with the ongoing operation of the Phase B unit with increased monitoring likely to result in intermittent stoppages to inspect the plant until the repairs to Phase A are completed. The rebuild of Phase A is progressing well and is expected to be completed towards the 2020. As a result of the temporary closure of ICP, there has been an increase in work in progress inventory, which has increased from around 950,000 3e ounces to the current levels of close to 1,450,000 3e ounces. This is the primary reason that refined PGM production, excluding tolling, decreased by 49 and sales volumes decreased by 38%. Sales were supplemented by drawdown of refined inventory. I will now hand over to Craig to talk to you about our financial performance. Thank you, Natasha, and good morning, everyone. The first half financial performance has been impacted by the challenges outlined by Natasha. However, the resilience of our business has enabled us to see through these headwinds. And despite their impact, we've delivered a solid set of financial results. EBITDA increased by 6% to ZAR13.1 billion, delivering a margin of 32%. The return on capital employed also increased to 48%. We achieved headline earnings of ZAR6.9 billion or ZAR26.27 per share, down 7% from H1 twenty nineteen. The company's balance sheet remains strong with net cash of ZAR11.3 billion after paying the final 2019 dividend of ZAR11.1 billion in March 2020. This places us in a position to declare a dividend of ZAR2.8 billion for H1 twenty twenty. As I mentioned, EBITDA increased by ZAR0.7 billion to ZAR13.1 billion. This was due to the higher U. S. Dollar rhodium and palladium prices and the weaker rand dollar exchange rates, contributing ZAR9.1 billion and ZAR2.6 billion, respectively. This was partly offset by local CPI inflation and higher royalties totaling billion. The operational headwinds resulted in ZAR11.2 billion impact to EBITDA. These were as a result of the temporary closure of the ACP, which resulted in lower refined production, lower production from our mining operations and third party purchase of concentrate partners following the national shutdowns. Additional costs of ZAR250 million were incurred in respect of contributions to the COVID-nineteen health care and community response plans, and we incurred ZAR1.2 billion in salaries and other benefits to employees not working during the lockdown. Savings across the business resulted in billion lower costs compared to H1 twenty nineteen. Turning to unit costs. Due to the 25% decrease in mining production and our response to the COVID-nineteen pandemic, the unit cost of production per PGM ounce rose by 26% to ZAR 12,555. Excluding the impact of unproductive labor of ZAR 1,200,000,000.0 or ZAR $10.57 per ounce, Unit costs are ZAR 11,498, 16% higher than the 2019. Operational costs decreased as a result of the cost savings realized in the 2020 of ZAR 2,000,000,000. The all in sustaining cost was a negative ZAR480 per platinum ounce sold against the average platinum achieved price of $857 per ounce. We expect unit cost to reduce to between ZAR 11,500 and ZAR 12,000 per PGM ounce in the second half of the year as production increases and further cost savings are realized. Full year unit cost guidance for 2020 has been revised to between ZAR11800 and ZAR12200 per PGM ounce as a result of the ongoing implications of COVID-nineteen. Trade working capital at the June 30 was ZAR6.6 billion, equivalent to forty seven days compared to ZAR3.1 billion at the December 2019. The net increase was mainly attributable to higher work in progress inventory ahead of the ACP as a result of its temporary shutdown. It's expected that approximately 45% of this buildup in inventory will be released in the second half of the year and the balance in 2021, subject again to Phase B operating uninterrupted for the rest of the year. Higher prices resulted in an increase in the customer prepayment of ZAR6.7 billion to ZAR16.1 billion. H1 capital expenditure was ZAR1.9 billion as a result of the capital expenditure deferments of ZAR0.6 billion. Stay in business capital expenditure was ZAR1.4 billion focused on tailings dams, investments in Mogalakwena heavy machinery equipment, smelter rebuilds and asset reliability. The total cost of the ACP Phase B repair is ZAR 150,000,000, which is at the lower end of our previous estimates. The total cost of ACP Phase A rebuild is expected to be between million and ZAR600 million. Project capital was ZAR200 million lower than planned, owing to the scope deferments attributable to the COVID-nineteen lockdown affecting the Unqi debottlenecking project and the Tumela 15E mechanization project at Amandelbult. A further ZAR300 million has been spent on progressing our breakthrough projects such as the Mogalakwena bulk ore sorting and coarse particle rejection project and demandable modernization. 2020 CapEx guidance is revised downwards to between ZAR5.7 billion and ZAR6.5 billion as a result of the deferment for 2020 of ZAR1 billion. Despite the operational challenges, the company ended the half year in a net cash position of ZAR11.3 billion after the payment of ZAR11.1 billion in dividends in March. Largely as a consequence of the inventory build, cash utilized in the first half was ZAR3.5 billion. Excluding the customer prepayment of ZAR16.1 billion, the company is in a net debt position of ZAR4.8 billion. Liquidity headroom is at ZAR16.6 billion, comprising of both undrawn committed facilities of ZAR12.1 billion and cash of ZAR4.5 billion, excluding the customer prepayment. The company operates comfortably within its debt covenants, in line with our capital allocation framework and our dividend policy, where we target a payout of 40% of headline earnings, the Board has declared a first half cash dividend of ZAR2.8 billion or ZAR10.23 per share. Thank you. I'll now hand you back to Natasha. Thank you, Craig. PGM prices were high in the first half. We achieved an increase in our average realized dollar basket price of 56 percent, thanks to buoyant rhodium and palladium prices. As the rand weakened 13% against the U. S. Dollar, the rand basket price averaged 80% higher year on year. These average prices mask what was a very volatile period. Palladium and rhodium set new all time price highs in March, but later that month, all three PGMs saw a steep sell off as wider markets sold off on COVID-nineteen fears. More recently, prices have rallied again and all ended the first half higher year on year. The automotive sector accounts for 65% of gross 3EPGM demand, 35 of platinum demand and around 85% of palladium and rhodium demand. Monthly global sales of light duty vehicles fell sharply from February as the pandemic spread globally, locking down consumers, dealerships and factories. We estimate light vehicle sales fell 28% in the first half. However, recovery has started. In China, which reopened earlier, vehicle sales had returned to normal by May. In the rest of the world, May and June have seen strong month on month growth. Of course, it's too soon to say things are back to normal. The rebound in sales is uneven and could be fragile. We predict that a full year decrease in auto sales could be around 22% if recovery remains at current levels, with an upside scenario of a fall of 14% if auto sales recover to twenty nineteen levels in H2. Looking further ahead, we see a robust picture overall for PGM demand. As forecast by LMC Automotive, battery electric vehicles are expected to gain market share. It is important to stress that the majority of electrified vehicles, which includes hybrid vehicles, battery electric vehicles and fuel cell vehicles will still require PGM catalysts. Internal combustion engine based vehicle sales, including hybrids, are forecast to be 9% higher in 2027 than in 2019. Importantly, we expect total demand for PGMs from the auto sector to grow even faster as loadings per vehicle increase. Loadings per vehicle have risen significantly in recent years as emission legislation, particularly in Europe and China, have tightened. As the Clean Air movement grows, tightening emissions legislation, which have already led to an increase in loadings, are expected to become more stringent. For example, Euro seven is already under discussion and will continue to push loadings higher. We also expect to see an increase in PGM demand from light duty fuel cell vehicles and particularly in heavy duty vehicles not shown. Notwithstanding the current negative impact of COVID-nineteen on other demand sectors, we believe the medium term demand outlook remains positive. Industrial PGM demand has been resilient through the crisis, while jewelry demand has suffered from the lockdowns. Investment demand was mixed. All three PGMs saw ETF selling, whilst platinum has also seen strong bar and coin buying. Looking ahead, we are confident industrial PGM demand will be positive. It benefits from having a large and diversified range of expanding end users, and we are seeing strong momentum in the hydrogen economy. Jewellery demand should be stable, lower incomes and changing consumer preferences are a challenge, but pent up demand and a growing middle class will provide support. Investment demand will benefit from production innovation and investor education. 2020 will be a challenging year for PGM demand due to COVID-nineteen. However, PGM mine supply will also be lower in 2020, about 22% by our estimates, with platinum and rhodium especially hit due to their reliance on South African production. As such, market balances have not worsened this year. In fact, we estimate all three PGMs to be in deficit this year. In the longer term, both PGM supply and demand will recover, and overall, we see relatively little change in our markets from COVID-nineteen with enduring demand across the three metals. We have a restructured and simplified business with high quality assets that are the foundations from which we can build the business for the future. In the immediate term, we have had to focus on remaining resilient during COVID-nineteen whilst keeping the health and well-being of our employees and surrounding communities as our main priority. Our environment, social and governance philosophy is embedded in all we do, and our people remain at our core. This focus ensures we seek to strike the balance between producing industry leading returns for our shareholders and creating a sustainable future for other stakeholders so that we can meet our purpose of reimagining mining to improve people's lives. Despite the difficult environment, we have not stopped thinking about our future, and we continue to focus on four key areas that will drive further value: increase in operational efficiency, innovation through the use of breakthrough technology, high returning value accretive projects and growth options and championing market development for PGMs, we are looking at a refresh of the company strategy that will build on these key foundations of creating value through the cycle and should be in a position to announce these later in the year. Mogalakwena remains the world's most significant PGM operation and the only major open pit PGM operation globally. Given the size of the resource, the project study has identified several options to expand PGM production. The study has progressed to a feasibility study and is reviewing six key areas of focus to shape the future of Mogalakwena, which comprise an optimized mine plan and operational performance development and deployment of new technology to improve throughput and recoveries building additional concentrator capacity optimizing resource development of both open pit and underground options and utilizing downstream processing capacity to maximize value. Aligned with our purpose, we want to reshape our relationships with our local communities to create trusting relationships and valued partnerships to ensure they can also thrive and prosper. We continue to lead the industry's demand creation efforts across the industrial investment and jewelry demand segments. Within the industrial space, the hydrogen economy and fuel cells are gaining traction as governments around the world announce large investments as part of their decarbonization strategies. Our market development activities are not only helping shape the hydrogen market globally, we are also directly involved by developing the world's largest hydrogen powered fuel cell mining haul truck. This truck will be trialed at Mogalakwena and includes the on-site generation of hydrogen through electrolysis from solar power, which is then used to refuel the truck. At scale, mining fuel cell trucks would create significant demand for green hydrogen, accelerating the hydrogen economy and ultimately helping to lower the cost of hydrogen for all other fuel cell applications. Importantly, if the technology is commercially adopted, this will enable significant decarbonization of our operations. As a result of the impact of COVID-nineteen and the ACP repairs, we revised our guidance, which remains as follows: PGM production is expected to be between 3,100,000 to 3,600,000 ounces Refined PGM production guidance, which excludes tolling, is also expected to be between 3,100,000 to 3,600,000 ounces. Sales volumes remain in line with refined production, excluding traded ounces sold. Lockdowns impacted capital spend in the first half, and we revised our capital expenditure for staying business and project capital to between ZAR5.7 billion and ZAR6.5 billion. Capitalized waste stripping is estimated to be between ZAR2.4 billion and ZAR2.6 billion. Unit cost guidance has been revised to between ZAR11800 to ZAR 12,200 per PGM ounce for the full year. Significant headwinds are expected for the remainder of 2020 with several variables that could affect production, including operational impacts as a result of the spread of COVID-nineteen, possibility of power outages from Eskom and maintaining the stability of the ICP FASB unit until the repairs to ICP FASB have been completed and the unit commissioned. To conclude, Anglo American Platinum has proven its resilience and the team is focused on building the business beyond significant challenges in the first half. We have maintained zero fatalities at managed operations for over six twenty days and will continue to focus on our safety performance. Our ESG strategy to support stakeholders is of greater importance and impact during the COVID-nineteen pandemic, and we are proud of the significant work we have been doing to support our employees and host communities. There remain robust fundamentals for the PGMs we produce, particularly driven by the Clean Air movements, and we are in a strong financial position with a net cash position of ZAR11.3 billion despite the buildup of work in progress inventory, which we expect to release around 45% off in the second half. The Board has declared an interim dividend based on 40% of headline earnings. And despite the expectation that a post COVID world remains some way off, we have not lost our focus on building the business for the future. Whilst we do expect a stronger second half performance, particularly operationally, we caution that significant headwinds still exist. Thank you for listening.