Vodacom Group Limited (JSE:VOD)
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Nov 15, 2021

Raisibe Morathi
Group CFO, Vodacom Group

In this video, I will unpack our results for the period ended 30th September 2021 and provide updates on our capital structure and guidance. We are pleased to deliver strong results in this period and note that they are consistent with our medium-term targets, while continuing to deal with the widespread effects of COVID-19 pandemic. From a shareholder perspective, we have declared an interim dividend of ZAR 4.20 per share, representing growth of 1.2%. This is testament to our ongoing operational execution and financial position, both of which are a good context to navigate us through the ongoing uncertainties of COVID-19 pandemic better than most corporates.

Moving to our financial performance for the six-month period ended 30th September, our income statement sets out reported and normalized growth, and I will primarily draw attention to the normalized growth numbers, which provide better insight into the operational trends. The normalized growth rates are adjusted for Forex fluctuations, M&A activities, and measure one-off lumps and bumps. Pleasingly, revenue increased by 4.2% and 7.9% on a normalized basis, supported by service revenue growth, which was up 1% on a reported basis and 5.4% on a normalized basis. EBITDA grew 5.7% on a normalized basis at a margin of 43%. The EBITDA performance was supported by positive jaws in the international business, while South Africa lapped a strong base. I will unpack both of these a little later.

The reported change on the net profit from associates and joint ventures of ZAR 1.6 billion was impacted by Forex translation and a ZAR 805 million one-off in the prior year. As a reminder, the tax rate was reduced by 5% in April 2020 as a temporary relief for COVID, hence reinstated in January 2021 as was expected. This resulted in a deferred tax adjustment. On a normalized basis, the net profit from associates and joint ventures increased 11.9%. Net finance charges decreased by 15.1% given reduced debt. This number also includes net foreign exchange remeasurement net gains in this period vs losses in the prior period. Headline earnings per share declined 5.1% to 505 cents per share and was also materially impacted by the deferred tax one-off related to Kenya.

Adjusting for the one-off, headline earnings per share was up 3%, and I will take you through the underlying numbers later in my presentation. As set out on the previous slide, normalized service revenue growth for the period for the group was 5.4% for the six months period. On a quarterly basis, group growth has eased from 7.8% in the first quarter to 3.1% in the second quarter. Our South African business lapped a particularly strong base as a result of the lockdowns in the period. Also, the second quarter growth in South Africa was impacted by ZAR 142 million loyalty provision adjustment in the prior period. Adjusting for this one-off, the second quarter service revenue was up 3.2%.

Encouragingly, the absolute service revenue in the second quarter marks the highest in a year. Shifting focus to the international business, normalized service revenue growth was 9% in the first half, a significant improvement from the 5.2% decline in the prior period. The growth rate did slow into the second quarter as a result of the new mobile money levies in Tanzania, which were introduced during July. The levies impacted Tanzanian service revenue by around ZAR 220 million in the quarter. The reported service revenue for international was impacted by the rand strength. Moving to EBITDA. Group EBITDA grew by 5.7% on a normalized basis. This performance supported our on-target operating profit growth in the period. South Africa posted EBITDA growth of 3.7% with margin contraction of 1.3 percentage points.

In my next slide, I will provide more context for this trend, which we expect to improve into the second half. International businesses normalized EBITDA increased 15.8% with the margin expanding 3.4 percentage points, and this is supported by better top-line growth and accelerated cost containment efforts. A good example of cost containment was in Tanzania, which delivered broadly flat EBITDA margin despite revenue pressure from the mobile money levies. Shifting the focus to South Africa, EBITDA and operating profit growth was impacted by a one-off and a cost-phasing anomaly that I would like to highlight. The one-off related to a credit of ZAR 142 million from the remeasurement of the obligations for the loyalty program in the prior year. This one-off negatively impacted the reported growth rate, and as such, we added back to our adjusted growth rate bridge.

The year-on-year comparison was also impacted by the phasing of costs in the prior year. As a result of the strict lockdowns in South Africa, there were material constraints on certain operating expenditures, such as publicity in the prior year. The phasing of this cost reversed to a more normal trend in the current period. We have calculated this to have had a 2.5% impact and hence added it back to our adjusted growth bridge. On an adjusted basis, EBITDA growth was up 7%. Reported operating profit growth was also impacted by the one-off impacts that we called out for EBITDA as well as the OpEx phasing impact. This one-off have a relatively higher impact in operating profit due to its lower base compared to EBITDA. On the right-hand side of the slide, we provide the same analysis but on a margin basis.

Adjusting for the loyalty provision release and the phasing of costs, the prior period margin was 42%. In the current period, we reported a 44% EBITDA margin and 41% on an adjusted basis, so a flat trend on a like-for-like basis. Shifting focus to cash flow, operating free cash flow declined 5.7% in this period. The decline reflects a strategic decision to accelerate investment in CapEx in order to take advantage of the strong rand's purchasing power experienced in the first quarter. We expect that the second half capital expenditure will be lower, reflecting the accelerated phasing of the investment in the financial year. As is normally the case, our working capital was negative in this period. This is seasonal and is expected to reverse in the second half of the financial year.

Lease liability payments, which is also captured in operating free cash flow, amounted to ZAR 2.3 billion and is consistent with our network expansion being 12.5% higher. From operating free cash flow, we paid cash taxes and finance costs, but these were partly offset by the dividends received. On this basis, we generated free cash flow of ZAR 4.5 billion, down 15.6%. Free cash flow and operating free cash flow were both impacted by a lower dividend received from Safaricom. The Safaricom dividend was lower due to the foreign exchange headwinds and amounted to ZAR 2.3 billion in the current period compared to ZAR 2.8 billion in the prior period. Moving to the bottom line, our HEPS declined 5.1% to 505 cents per share.

As reflected earlier, this result was impacted by various one-offs in the prior period. The most significant of these one-offs related to the lower corporate tax in Kenya and the resultant deferred tax rate adjustment. Previously, I mentioned an impact of ZAR 805 million at the operating profit level for this adjustment in the prior year. Accounting for non-controlling interests, the net income impact was ZAR 0.42 per share, making the lion's share of the one-offs impact on HEPS. From an operating perspective, this means that actual growth in HEPS was around ZAR 0.14 per share. The adjusted growth excluding the one-offs is 3%, and we are pleased with this growth given the foreign exchange headwinds in this period. Given the challenging economic circumstances, which include volatilities in currencies, the Forex impact in 2020 was a tailwind.

Vodafone's current dividend policy is to pay at least 90% of adjusted headline earnings excluding Safaricom and then to pass through the Safaricom dividend. On this basis, the board has declared an interim dividend of 420 cents per share, which is up 1.2%. The 420 cents per share comprised 355 cents from the controlled operations and 65 cents from Safaricom. The contribution from the controlled operations was up 4.4% despite the currency headwinds across our international markets, and this was reassuring. Our balance sheet remains one of our key strengths, and as I will discuss in later slides, it positions us to accelerate our System of Advantage. Our near-term debt repayments are skewed to rand-denominated Vodafone term loans, which we expect will be refinanced favorably.

More than 90% of our debt, excluding leases, is rand-based, limiting our exposure to foreign exchange movements. From an interest rate perspective, our debt structure is split 31% fixed and 69% floating rates. If we exclude leases, focus on financial debt, the fixed component increases to 37% while floating rate is 63%. Interest rate risk management remains a key focus for our treasury, and we will continue to optimize our mix of fixed vs floating rates. Pleasingly, we have maintained our net debt to EBITDA ratio at 0.9x year- on- year despite our accelerated network investment. We strive to deliver an investment case that provides attractive growth and returns such as ROCE and ultimately ongoing dividend. To deliver on this, we believe it is important to align our strategic priorities with capital structure.

Our strategic priorities are framed by our System of Advantage and the journey of transitioning our business from a telco to a techco. The two M&A deals announced a few days ago, namely acquisition of Vodafone Egypt and the South African fiber, accelerated our System of Advantage. This will see us utilize debt capacity of around ZAR 23 billion for Egypt in early FY 2023 and ZAR 9 billion for fiber with a call option to increase our fiber ownership further. However, this debt will be raised only when regulatory approvals are obtained. While we are taking on more debt, we are mindful of adhering to our internal threshold of 1.5x net debt to EBITDA. This brings us to the dividend. Our current dividend policy is to pay 90% of adjusted headline earnings, which excludes the contribution of the attributable net profit from Safaricom.

In addition, the group distributes any dividend it receives from Safaricom as a pass-through. As supported by our board, this dividend policy will be maintained for the financial year 2022. On completion of the Vodafone Egypt acquisition, Vodacom intends to simplify and amend its dividend policy to at least 75% of Vodacom Group's headline earnings. The simplified policy and proposed acquisitions combine to provide a high payout on enhanced growth prospects. Notwithstanding the change in dividend policy, Vodacom Group will still have one of the highest dividend payout policies on the JSE. Additionally, the policy provides scope for the group to invest within its 13%-14.5% capital intensity framework, which reduces leverage and accommodates the upstreaming and dividend payout profiles of Safaricom and Vodafone Egypt. We appreciate that the Vodafone Egypt transaction needs your support as shareholders.

In this regard, we believe our M&A track record evidences discipline and value creation. We trust that this track record provides you with some comfort in the investment case enhancement that emanates from the current M&A transactions and the organic initiatives in Fintech. While recognizing our dividend yield is important to you as shareholders, it is equally important that it provides a sustainable path for growth. Now to our medium-term targets. Until we complete the M&A transactions, our targets remain the same as what we announced in May 2021. We aim to grow service revenue in mid-single digit and operating profit at mid to high single digits. Our group capital intensity ratio remains in a range of 13%-14.5% of revenue.

Additionally, it is worth highlighting that our associate, Safaricom, provided an update on guidance and on Ethiopia at its results on the tenth of November. Encouragingly, on the back of strong results, Safaricom upgraded its financial year 2022 EBIT guidance for Kenya. Safaricom also provided EBIT and capital expenditure guidance, including the greenfield rollout in Ethiopia. The impact of Ethiopia is incorporated in our medium-term targets. Now a couple of words on the impact of our M&A deals. We expect the Vodafone Egypt and the CIVH fiber asset acquisitions will enhance our System of Advantage and provide scope to diversify and accelerate our group growth profile. Based on our financial year 2021 results, Vodafone Egypt would contribute over 20% of group's operating profit, reducing South Africa to below 60% and diversifying our growth outlook.

Further, the inclusion of Vodafone Egypt is expected to accelerate Vodacom Group's medium-term operating profit growth potential into double digits. We intend to provide an update on our medium-term targets at our full year results for the period ended 31st March 2022, which will be reported in May 2022. Coming to my final slide today, I would like to reconcile our medium-term growth target with the shape of our business in the years to come, and in particular, our ambitions around new services. These new services encompass digital and financial services, fixed and IoT. On a consolidated basis with South Africa and international business in scope, we see our new service revenue contribution increasing from 18% to around 25%-30% by the financial year 2024.

By year 2026, there is scope for these revenues to exceed a 30% contribution to our consolidated service revenue. On that exciting note, I will conclude and thank you for your attention.

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