Halyk Bank of Kazakhstan Joint Stock Company (KASE:HSBK)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2023

Aug 17, 2023

Mira Kassenova
Head of FI and International Relations, Halyk Bank

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Halyk Bank's conference call on the presentation of financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2023. Thanks, everyone, for joining us today, and the session will start with the presentation by Halyk team and will be followed by the Q&A session. Please note that the call is being recorded. The participants to the today's call on Halyk Bank side are Mr. Murat Koshenov, Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries and International Activities; Mr. Roman Maszczyk, Deputy CEO, Compliance, Risk Management, Data Science and Collateral, Chief Compliance Controller; Ms. Olga Vuros, Deputy CEO, Corporate Banking; Mr. Dauren Sartayev , Deputy CEO, SME Banking, Transactional Banking, PR and Marketing; Mr. Zhumabek Mamutov, Deputy CEO, Retail Banking and Soft Collection; Mr. Nariman Mukushev, Deputy CEO, Digital Government Services, Ecosystem and Customer Experience; Mr. Viktor Skryl, Financial Director, covering finance and subsidiaries; Margulan Tanirtayev and Nurgul Mukhadi from IR team, and myself, Mira Kassenova, Head of FI and International Relations.

Let me start with an update on our digital initiatives for the first half and second quarter of 2023. In the second quarter, our customer engagement metrics grew significantly versus last year, as you can see on this slide, and the number of MAU and DAU Halyk Homebank app has increased by 30% and 20.7% year-on-year, respectively. The MAU reached 6.3 million. The number of users of online bank increased by 35.5%, and the number of MAU is increased by 21.7%. Halyk's apps remain among the top financial platforms in the country. Next slide, please.

Growing customer engagements on our platforms drives credit and non-credit products further expansion, and in the first half, the share of retail digital loans issued reached 82%, while in the second quarter, it reached 79% by total count, which is up 7 percentage points year-over-year. In the first half, the share of new online deposits issued reached 72%, while in the second quarter, it reached 77% by count, which is up 37 percentage points. In the first half, the share of non-cash card payments reached 72%, which is 7 percentage points up. Our legal entities' digital loan portfolio has grown by 46% year-over-year, and we are glad to know that portfolio of loans issued to LLPs is continuously increasing.

In the first half, the number and volume of payments made through Halyk Onlinebank have grown by 31.5% and 36%, respectively. Online onboarding for legal entities increased by more than 5% as a result of continuous improvement of customer proposition in Halyk Onlinebank app. Next slide shows the update on development of proprietary ecosystem services of the bank. In the second quarter, the GMV of auto insurance increased by more than 69% year-on-year. Halyk Travel GMV grew by 52.4%, and kino.kz experienced a 3x increase. The market share of kino.kz out of online sales of entertainment tickets increased by almost 10%, to 20, by almost 10 percentage points to 28%. Halyk Marketplace GMV grew by 41.7% year-on-year.

More details on this will be shown later in this presentation. Let me present our performance in the brokerage service. In the second quarter, number of clients suddenly raised by 6.7x year-over-year and reached more than 540,000 clients. MAU increased by almost 10 x and equaled to 136,000. We are glad to know that the transactions volume grew by 3.2 x and reached KZT 19 billion. Our brokerage assets increased by 20% and reached KZT 1.8 trillion. Let's move to the business segments update. We continue to maintain strong performance across key dimensions in our retail segment. Our active retail customer engagement drives transactional activity growth. The transactions volume raised by 12.3% year-over-year.

The number of retail active clients grew by 6.4%. On consolidated basis, the retail gross loan portfolio has expanded by 7.9% year to date, and the customer deposits increased by 1.1%. We are glad to see a solid growth in retail products penetration by 6.1% year-on-year. Next slide, please. We are primarily dedicated to further upgrade our Halyk Homebank super app, which is at core of our retail customer offering, and in the first half, the MAU penetration rate in retail's active client base is significantly rising from 54% - 63%. On unconsolidated basis, our retail portfolio has grown by 14% year-on-year, and in the second quarter, the loan issuance volumes have increased by 44%.

On the other hand, the digital sales increased by 96% and reached almost 50% of total retail loan sales by volume. We observed increase in segment NPL 90+ day to 4.8%, while maintaining quite strong NPL coverage ratio of 158%. Next slide, please. To give you more color, let's discuss marketplace dynamics in more details. In the second quarter, the GMV of our Halyk Market increased by 1.7x. The number of partners of Halyk Market grew by almost 2.3x year on year, and SKUs raised by 2x. During second quarter, we continued to keep our attention on further development of GovTech. We launched a number of new government services, such as reissue of driver's license, online queue reservation at the public service center, et cetera.

And we continue to be the top provider of online government services in the market. As at the end of the second quarter, our clients had an access to 48 government services. In the first half, the government services were used over 5.7 million times. Turning to corporate segment, we would like to note that on a consolidated basis, our loan book has expanded by 11.3% year-on-year. Our corporate portfolio remains well diversified across industries with local currency loans comprising 87% of the loan book. At the end of the second quarter, the segment NPL ratio equaled 1%, and the provisioning coverage comprised over 415%. Our active corporate client base stays at the level of 2,200 customers.

Also, there has been a notable increase in both the penetration of our products and transactional activity. Next slide, please. The SME banking is continuously performing well. The number of SME in Onlinebank digital platform has raised by over 20% year-to-date. We also want to highlight that year-on-year, on consolidated basis, our SME loan book has expanded by 14.6%. The number of SME borrowers has stayed almost flat, and there has been a substantial increase in SME clients transactional activity. As at the end of second quarter, the segment NPL ratio comprised 4.2%. Next slide, please. We are continuously developing our digital offering for SME clients, and in the first half, we achieved 44.5% growth in SME loan issuance volumes year-on-year.

Mainly, it has been driven by digital loans, which comprises over 30% of our SME loan portfolio. Number of IE borrowers increased by 2% year-on-year, number of LLP borrowers raised by almost 45%. We saw a substantial increase in demand for digital guarantees. As a result, the total number of issued digital blank tender guarantees was 5.4 x up year-on-year. Now, let me hand over the call to my colleague from IR team, Margulan Tanirtayev. Thank you.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

Thanks, Mira. Now let me switch to the overview of Halyk Group consolidated financial results for the first half and second quarter of 2023. Starting from first January of 2023, Halyk Group's financial statements have been transited to IFRS 17 insurance contracts from IFRS 4, which resulted in recalculation of certain P&L items for the first half and second quarter of 2022. All of the ratios were also recalculated accordingly. For more detailed information, please refer to Halyk Group's financial statements for the second quarter of this year, note 4. During the first half, the bank generated KZT 365.2 billion of net income. The year-on-year increase by 27.8% was mainly due to significant increase in lending and transactional businesses.

Other non-interest income decreased by 34.3% year-on-year, mainly due to lower net gain from financial assets and liabilities at fair value through profit or loss, and net gain on foreign exchange operations as a result of higher volatility of exchange rates and interest rates in the first half of 2022. Net insurance income increased by 9.2 x year-on-year due to overall business growth and as a result of recognition of insurance reserve expenses on unsecured consumer loans with the borrower's life insurance bundle in the first half of the last year. In the first half, we demonstrated 36% return on average equity and 5.2% return on assets. Next slide, please. Total assets of the group decreased by 0.3% year to date as a result of decrease in amounts due to customers.

Customer deposits decreased by 3.2%. We will discuss the reasons for this movement in more details later in this presentation. Next slide, please. In the first half, the bank's interest income increased by 41.5% year-on-year, mainly due to increase in average rate and balances of loans to customers. While the interest expense increased by 55.5%, mainly as a result of the growth in average rate and balances of amounts due to customers. As a result, the net interest income grew by 29.6%. In the first half, the bank's net interest margin was affected by the increase in average rates on both loans to customers and amounts due to customers, following the significant increase in interest rates. Furthermore, the share of loans to customers in total interest-earning assets increased substantially.

Moreover, there was an increase in the average rate of FX amounts due from credit institutions and FX interest-earning cash and cash equivalents following the global increase of USD interest rates. As a result, net interest margin increased to 6% per annum compared to 5.2% per annum for the first half of 2022. Net interest margin in the first half and second quarter of this year was negatively affected by the accelerated amortization of discount on the deposit of Kazakhstan Sustainability Fund, which was partially prepaid by the bank as a requirement under new regulation, requiring banks with the state support funds on their balance sheet to make such prepayments in case of dividend payments.

Excluding these effects, net interest margin would have amounted to 6.3% per annum for the first half and 6.5% per annum for the second quarter. Next slide, please. Our bank continues to perform well in terms of net non-interest income, as it increased by 3.5% year-on-year for the first half of 2023, mainly due to the notable increase in net insurance income and net fee and commission income. Next slide, please. In the first half of this year, compared to year before, the overall dynamics of fee and commission income and expense was driven by the increased clients' transactional activity. Net fee and commission income for the first half increased by 45.8% year-on-year due to increase in net transactional income of legal entities and individuals.

Operating expenses for the first half increased by 9.6% year-on-year, mainly due to the indexation of salaries and other employee benefits starting from 1st March of 2023. The bank's cost-to-income ratio decreased to 17.9% compared to 19.2% a year before, amid higher operating income for the first half of this year. Next slide, please. On the balance sheet, loans to customers increased by 4.2% on a gross and 4% on a net basis year to date. The increase in the gross loan portfolio was attributable to a rise of 2.4% in corporate, 3.3% in SME, and 7.99% in retail loans. The share of FX loans was at 16.4%.

90-day NPL ratio slightly increased to 2.6% as at the end of second quarter, mainly due to increase in non-performing corporate and retail loans. Cost of risk on loans to customers for the second quarter was a normalized level within the scope of our full year guidance of 1.2%. Stage three ratio slightly increased to 8.1% as at the end of second quarter, mainly due to increase in non-performing retail loans. Next slide, please. Compared with the end of the last year, the deposits of legal entities were down 7.5%, mainly due to overall transfers of funds across the banking sector into the higher-yielding securities market in light of elevated interest rates. Deposits of individuals were up 1.1% due to fund inflow from the bank's clients.

As at the end of the second quarter, the share of KZT deposits in total corporate deposits was 63.7%, compared to 60.6% as at the end of the last year, while the share in total retail deposits was 58.2% versus 52.6%. Next slide, please. On consolidated basis, Capital Adequacy Ratios of the bank increased, I'm sorry, decreased in the second quarter as a result of dividends paid by the bank for the financial year of 2022. Next slide. Based on our six months financial results, we have updated the outlook for the full year of 2023, only in terms of the net fee and commission income growth, which is expected to be more than 20%. All of the, all of the other items in our guidance remain unchanged.

Dear ladies and gentlemen, this completes our presentation. Now we would like to open the floor for your questions. Please, just a quick instruction: To state a question, you can raise your hand in Zoom, or if you joined via the cell phone, please press star nine to raise your hand. You can also enter your question in the written form via chat. Also, while stating your question, please also mention name and company. The first question comes from Ronak Gadhia. Ronak, please go ahead.

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

Good afternoon. thanks for the presentation today. First of all, congratulations on the results as well, and thanks for taking my questions. two, two or three questions. Maybe if you could just go back to the net interest margin discussion. I think you mentioned that the funding costs were slightly elevated because of some prepayments of state funds. If you could just elaborate on that. Did you-- did the bank end up paying back to the state over and above the dividend that was paid? You know, I believe 10% of the dividend was attrib- attributable to that, so did the bank end up paying more than that, and therefore, the amount of state funding contribution within the bank has, has declined?

If that is the case, maybe you could elaborate how much is, how much is left now. The second question is on loan growth. I see you've maintained your guidance, but the growth trajectory in the first half was relatively modest. Does that, so does that suggest that, you know, we should see an acceleration in the second half? If that is the case, you know, what, what particular sectors should we be expecting that growth to come through? My final one is on the digital ecosystem. It's great to see the monthly average users increasing, but the DAU to MAU ratio seems to be slightly lower. I think it's declined about 2.5 percentage points, around 28 points.

Likewise, if I look at the GMV on the marketplace, that seems to have stagnated at around KZT 40 billion-KZT 42 billion mark. Could you just, you know, maybe, talk around why, you know, the utilization rate on the ecosystem, seems to be, seems to be flatlining, and what the bank's strategy is to, to improve that? Thank you.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Ronak, hello. Thank you for your questions. Let me pick, pick it one by one. On the net interest margin, indeed, the interest expenses were higher because of the prepayments of deposits, which actually was transferred from KKB as a result of merger back in 2018. This deposit was provided by Problem Loans Fund to KKB at below market rates, which was further modified before the acquisition of KKB by Halyk Bank. Parts of that deposits was accounted and still accounted in the capital. Because of change in the regulation for banks which have part of the state support on the balance sheet, technically, Halyk Bank was falling under that regulation.

In case these banks are making dividend payments, they also have to make prepayments of state support money in the proportion of state support money is accounted in the capital. In our case, there was certain proportion of state support money in the capital. It was just above 10%. Because of these dividend prepayments, we had to make payments certain amount of state support to be returned. That was around KZT 28 billion out of KZT 250 billion outstanding. Portion of that amount, of KZT 28 billion, was accounted in the liability, and portion was accounted in the capital. The capital portion was around KZT 14.5 billion.

Because of the IFRS, that amount is not entered directly from the capital, it should flow through P&L, whereby increasing our interest expense. That's why in order to provide for investors information, how much net interest margin would be in the absence of that additional amortization, on slide 25 of our presentation, we put in net interest margin as it is reported for the second quarter, as well as first quarter, for the first half of this year, as well as the adjusted amount.

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

O-okay.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

If-

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

Just before you go to the other question. Just to clarify, the total that was repaid was just the KZT 28 billion? It, it wasn't over and above.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Yeah.

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

the KZT 28 billion. Okay, understood. Thank you.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

We have less the remaining portion. Basically, we have around KZT 220 billion, close to KZT 222 billion of remaining deposits. When the bank, and if the bank would be making further dividend payments, the process will be reiterated. In terms of the loan growth, as I understood, we. Indeed, our gross loans grew by less than, just above, 4%. Net loans grew by 4% in the first half. If you see for the second quarter loan, the growth rate was higher. We also looking at the pipeline, which we have in our large corporate portfolio, we're looking at the dynamics, which we're having in most recent periods.

This gives us the comfort in maintaining the guidance for the full year, both for the legal entities, corporates plus SME, which is 18% growth, as well as for retail portfolio, which is the guidance is 16% for the whole year. In terms of digital ecosystem, we have a number of them. Indeed, we have marketplace, we have kino.kz, we have travel, we have our digital insurance products, we have brokerage. We, we see indeed more engagement of, of, of, of the customers. Some digital products, they having stronger dynamics than, than others. Basically, we are working on further developing all the ecosystem elements which I mentioned. We have plans for further developing a brokerage.

We have plans further to develop our travel, auto insurance, as well as kino.kz and marketplace. With regards to marketplace, we working on few initiatives this year, so we have we hope that they would they will help us to drive further the growth of GMV, which is probably not that visible as of current reporting period. We have plans further to drive other GMV through a number of initiatives, which we're currently working on. I hope that we'll be can discuss these initiatives further while we progress through the year.

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

Okay. Thank, thanks for that. Just a very quick follow-up on the last one. We saw your fee income grow by about 46% year-on-year.

How, how much of that could be attributable to the, to the traction you're getting on the digital ecosystem?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

To a large extent, I think it's attributed by our core business. It's basically, the transactional fees and commission income is increasing, both for retail clients as well as legal entities. This is a combination of, first of all, increasing client base, which we managed to attract last year, because of the change in operating environment. If you remember, a few Russian banks was exiting, and we managed to substantially increase our client base. Secondly, because we continue to increase products and services proposition to our clients, we see more and more clients, client activity. Partially, it's attributed to ecosystem, to ecosystems, but they probably are not...

At this point of time, they, they're probably not, to a large extent, a direct, fees and commission generating services, but they definitely increasing engagement, of our clients, with our, core platforms, which is, Halyk super app application, as well as, Halyk Onlinebank for, SME and corporate clients.

Ronak Gadhia
Managing Director and Frontier Banks Analyst, EFG Hermes

Understood. Thank you very much.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

The next question comes from Olga Naidenova. Olga, please go ahead.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

I have a couple technical questions. First, with regards to net interest margin, do I understand correctly that when you that that you accrue it, accrue this deposit amortization only for the second quarter, once you have the approval of dividends, or this will be smooth through the through the year?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Olga, thank you for your question. According to IFRS, when the instrument is provided at below market, market rates, actually, the liability is provided at below market rate, we should accumulate or reflect certain portion of that liability in the capital. Then we, on the remaining portion, which is attributed in the liability portion, we should accrue interest expenses based on the effective rate. Basically, even before the early prepayments, the effective rate on the liability portion of that liability, was part of our interest expenses. Because that prepayment is high and it's proportionately affecting the liability portion and the capital portion, so that increase that having a one-off effect of increasing interest expense.

Which again, is not a direct entry to the capital, but should rather go through P&L. That's why it's having a one-off effect to such a large scale.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Okay, okay. Thank you. My other question is, is about your NPL. It's, it keeps growing. You have somewhat reduced your coverage. Do you have any targeted level of NPL coverage? And could you shed some light on why NPLs keep growing, and where do you expect them, say, towards year-end, or, or how do you expect asset quality development?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Well, basically, we see that asset quality generally is, if, if you also look from the cost of risk situation, has stabilized since last year, which bring a big shock because of the geopolitical situation, as well as the sharp increase in inflation. We do not see the current trend, trend as actually worrisome. In fact, we keep our cost of risk guidance for the full year intact, and actually, the cost of risk for the first half of this year is substantially lower than for the first half of, of, of, of last year. When we...

And we specifically do not have a targeted cost of risk or coverage, because on the coverage side, actually. Sorry, we do not have a targeted level of NPL or the coverage, because coverage is actually a function of IFRS. We look at retail and small business on the portfolio basis, and then we look at the function of the rollover. We look at the different LGDs as well. With regards to medium-sized and larger corporates, we look on individual basis, and coverage is the function of what are the expectation of foreclosures, what is the expectations of book over, what expectation of cash flow from the business as well as the collateral.

It's, it's just a calculation base. From that perspective, any increase up or down, is a reflection of our expectations. Basically, at the reduction of coverage, might be also treated by the fact that, that we have improved, the expectations, of cash flow from the pool, of loans, which, which is, in, in the Stage two and Stage three. Then say just-

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

What generally are your expectations with regards to asset quality, for coming, year or whatnot?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Again, we probably are not, we probably cannot provide kind of medium-term or longer-term horizon. Specifically, I mean, in terms of the figures. We only in terms of the guidance, providing the figure for cost of risk, which again, is remains intact. If you look from the economic perspective, you see that economy is growing. We see, it's broad-based. There are a lot of industries which is contributing to the current growth. We also remain positive in terms of the economic developments for last year. Obviously, inflation situation is something which was point of concern in recent periods, which, according to statistics, is still was was a driver behind reduction in real revenues for population Kazakhstan.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Mm-hmm.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

We see that inflation is on the downtrend trend.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Mm-hmm.

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

We expect that the policies of the National Bank, the efforts of the government, would would help to slow down inflation. Albeit we see a number of headwinds, like the potential impact on inflation from prices on petrol, from prices on utilities. Still, we, we clearly see that inflation is already on the moderation mode, which should be helpful in terms of providing stability on the on on on the retail part.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Okay. Thank you. Thank you very much. If I could ask a bit broader question. As far as I understand, your new strategy should be coming soon. Any update on when we can, we can expect your new, your new strategy update?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Yeah. We're currently working on the, the strategy, which is covering the years from 2022 to 2024. We'll start working on the new strategy sometimes next year, and, probably close, to the end of next year, sorry, we, potentially might be.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Okay

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

... coming to the market with, with a strategy update.

Olga Naidenova
Senior Analyst, Roemer Capital

Okay, thank you.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

We also have questions from our chat. First question comes from Baurzhan Tulepov: At the conference on the 14th of March, you mentioned that Halyk Bank could switch to semi-annual dividend payments. When can this happen? Could it happen this year?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Baurzhan, thank you for your question. It's a very good question. Indeed, we on constant basis, receiving the feedback from the investment community in terms of dividend policy. As many have noticed, we made certain amendments to our charter. I probably have to say here that the updates to the charter is not happening on very frequent basis, because we had a number of amendments, which we need to introduce to the charter this time, also triggered by changes in, in the regulation around the, the, the governance updates on, on the full name of the bank. We also decided to introduce that possibility. However, at this point of time, the dividend policy is not updated.

In short-term period of time, definitely this year, we are not switching to semi-annual dividend payments. The discussions and possibility to shift on that is still under discussion within the bank. From that perspective, I cannot provide guidance when we would be ready or would be, in fact, shifting to these semi-annual payments. But at least one step we did, as I said, like, making that possibility in the bank's charter.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

Next question from the chat comes from Baidihu. There are two questions. First, could you remind us the net interest margin sensitivity to every 100 basis points of interest rate cuts? The second question, your operating costs have been kept very steady. With the recent high growth in business size, do you anticipate any point that you may need to grow expenses more?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Baidihu, hello. Thank you very much for your questions. Well, on the net, net interest margin, we have to segregate, let's say, the accounting portion, as well as the reality. In terms of the accounting portion, the sensitivity, there is-- let's say, I don't have the exact figure, but this is something in the area of ±KZT 20 billion to 100 basis points shift. But saying that, we have to say that in reality, the sensitivity is less, and it's can be prolonged for a longer period of time. Because when the rates is increasing, we have possibility to reprice our loans probably quicker than it is stated in our loan agreements.

When the rates is moving in either direction, again, there is possibility from the clients to reprice the loans down thread. As I said, accounting calculation might be one way to look at on that, but in reality, we see the sensitivity is lower and actually taking a bit longer period of time. That's why the general sensitivity to net interest margin is not that high if you look for a longer period of time in how our net interest margin is fluctuating. On the operational costs, if you look for longer trend, the cost to income has improved substantially. This is probably due to our larger scale of operation, which is positive in many cases to the optimized cost to income.

Secondly, I think is our general should approach in terms of controlling operational cost. Thirdly, I think it's becoming more important factor is general digitalization of product and services, which help to scale operations without corresponding increase in the operating costs. At the same time, digitalization also require continuous investments, both in processes, systems, and people. Below 20% is already, I think, a very low level by any standards. That's why we kept our guidance for cost to income at the level of 20%-22% for full 2023.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

The next question from the chat comes from Dmitry Zimin. How could you explain decreased marketplace performance in second quarter of this year? What is your forecast for the third quarter?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Yeah, Dmitry, thank you for your question. As I said, we are working on number initiatives, which we think would help our GMV of Halyk Market to drive to higher levels in the second half. In terms of variations, it's clearly, this is a novelty effect. Generally, the fourth quarter is more active for the clients as well as for, for the business. That's why GMV, basically, for the fourth quarter is, is, is the most high if you compare different quarters through the year. We are not providing specific guidance for GMV of our marketplace, Halyk Market. That's why we'll be reporting as, as the quarters would pass by.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

Next question comes from Alexey Molchanov. How do you assess the potential of pension accounts management business for Halyk Finance following regulation changes allowing 50% transfer from the National Bank of Kazakhstan, and if any proactive strategy to acquire pension account customers are employed?

Murat Koshenov
Deputy CEO, Finance, Subsidiaries, and International Activities, Halyk Bank

Alex, thank you for your question. We have two brokerage companies, which are operationally joined their forces. Technically, two companies are still operating when it comes to pension. Beginning of this year, Halyk Finance actually re-entered the pension market, the pension asset management market. We think in terms of the... If you look from the client perspective, the companies which are entering now are providing better opportunities in current interest rate environment for pension contributors to improve their profitability. Simply from the fact that existing pension funds, they have a legacy portfolio of different maturities of securities with different historic interest rates. The new entrants, basically, they have the possibility to enter markets at the current interest rate level.

That's why they're providing better opportunities simply by this fact to pension contributors. We are trying to provide marketing from that angle, but it remains the part of activity of pension contributors. Unfortunately, when private pension system was demolished around 10 years ago, we see less interest from contributors actively looking into performance of their pension accounts. That's why we see some inertia probably from the pension contributors in terms of actively looking for alternatives within the companies. I think when the private asset management companies would showing consistently, within short period of time, at least, higher returns compared to the to the incumbents, we hope that it would attract more interest from pension contributors.

Margulan Tanirtayev
Investor Relations Chief Manager, Halyk Bank

We also have the last question from our chat from Asset Magulov regarding the semiannual dividend payments. We believe it, it was covered previously. For dear ladies and gentlemen, it seems that there is no questions remaining. This completes our presentation. Thank you very much for participation. As usual, our IR team remains open for any of your further questions. Take care and goodbye.

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