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Earnings Call: Q4 2020

Feb 25, 2021

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

2020. My name is Clare Chin, Head of Investor Relations at Axiata Group Berhad. Thank you for standing by. Today we have with us Dato' Izzaddin Idris, Axiata Group CEO, and Vivek Sood, Axiata Group CFO, as well as representatives from our operating companies. There will be a short presentation followed by a Q&A. Lastly, two housekeeping reminders. You will be on mute throughout the presentation. Note that the call duration will be for a maximum of 90 minutes. Without further ado, I would like to hand the conference over to Dato' Izzaddin.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thank you, Clare, and a very good afternoon to all of you. Thank you for spending the time with us this afternoon for us to share with you the results for the full year ended December 2020. As we all know, 2020 was a life-changing year for all of us from business point of view. If you remember, after the first quarter and second quarter results, we were very nervous of the performance for the full year. Despite the challenging pandemic year, we like to think that we managed to record quite a performance, new slide, for 2020. Just some key messages on these first two pages, after which Vivek will take us through the details. As you can see, and I'm sure you would have picked up the press release as well as the Bursa announcement. Revenue excluding devices is just a slight dip of -1%.

EBITDA went up by about 1.1% with EBITDA margin at 44%. That's a result of on the back of OpEx savings of MYR 745 million. Underlying PATAMI compared to 2019 is down by 9.4%, this as you know, as a result of higher D&A and lower contribution from two businesses, namely Celcom and edotco. Compare the underlying PATAMI of MYR 865 million reported, PATAMI MYR 365 million.

As we've explained, this is impacted substantially by the accelerated shutdown of 3G in most markets to reform 4G services. In total, the impact is about MYR 604 million for the accelerated shutdown of 3G across all the markets. Adjusted operating free cash flow, that's up to MYR 1.7 billion, whereas free cash flow itself Sorry for operating free cash flow, the number is MYR 3.3 billion for the full year 2020. Difference between MYR 3.3 billion and MYR 1.7 billion is the right of use assets.

That has led to a strong cash balance of MYR 7.2 billion across the group. Gross debt-to-EBITDA is at a manageable level of 2.57 x compared to 2.86 x in the third quarter. That's the result of paying down some debt in the fourth quarter. Of course, just need to be mindful that the cash balance, MYR 7.2 billion is a group balance. As you appreciate in these markets, we're trying to work on the financial guardrails for the OpCos to dividend up more dividends to corporate center, to Axiata Group Berhad. Across the group, it's a pretty healthy balance for the OpCos to tide through the challenging period. Going on to specific OpCos. You can see there for Celcom, the results. The PATAMI was lifted by better cost and credit management as well as financial prudence.

You can see that although revenue excluding device is down by -8.8%, if we exclude the employee restructuring program, the BSS that was implemented last year, the EBITDA and PATAMI went up by 2.4% and 11.5%. Yeah. From a credit and a management point of view, happy to report that the bad debts level has been better managed this time around. For the full year 2020 is about MYR 105 million compared to MYR 165 million the year before. An interesting development as well. The CelcomLife app has managed to attract now 2.6 million monthly average users as at end of 2020. Moving on to XL Axiata. They've recorded very strong performance, very encouraging despite the price war, largely led by Telkomsel as well as, of course, the pandemic. Yeah.

The weakened economic environment doesn't help, but again, the team there has done pretty well with revenue excluding device at a positive 3.8%. Effective OpEx management and better management of CapEx. N-Cell continues to be a challenging year. It has been affected by the prolonged COVID-19 lockdown. Also, challenges arising from spectrum constraint. As you know, we're still working on to get the L900 spectrum. At the same time, the lower active subscriber base, foreign workers, foreign remittance, and so on. At the end of the day, for the fourth quarter, we are seeing some green shoots that hopefully will translate to a better 2021. So far as Robi is concerned, as you know, Robi was listed on of December 24th last year. This morning, the share price is at BDT 43 compared to the BDT 10 IPO price.

That has lifted the profile of Robi now into being one of the top five, top 10 listed companies on the Bangladeshi Stock Exchange. Operationally, they continue an aggressive 4G network expansion in the non-CCD area and was able to sustain profitability throughout the Q4 in 2020. Of course, that came on the back of strong subscriber data growth as well as cost optimization. Next slide. Oh, no. Dialog continues to be a star performer insofar as our portfolio is concerned. Challenging for staff didn't deter management from ramping up their marketing efforts so that they were able to recover the second half. At the same time, the diligent cost management has improved the EBITDA margin overall to 42.3%. As a result, PATAMI grew to 11.7%.

Likewise, Smart, another star performer, notwithstanding the challenges, whilst revenue ex-device grew by about 3.8%, bottom line impacted by 3G asset write-off. That's the challenge if you like, for these markets. ADS continued to gain momentum as a result of the wins from the accelerated digital adoption in the new environment. Happy to report that the number of Boost users is up to 8.8 million. Number of merchants that sign up with us is at 224,000, and gross transaction value up 2 x. Of course, this is driven by the jump in online transactions. ADA continues its trajectory, remain positive, although ADS bottom line is a loss, but that loss was dragged down further by the higher marketing spend at Boost to encourage government-led e-wallet adoption. To be specific, the higher marketing spend is about MYR 40 million negative. That dragged down the results of ADS.

edotco, whilst we all acknowledge the resilient nature of the business of towers, because of the pandemic, also physical challenges for rollout, many of the customers had scaled down on their rollout last year. Hopefully, that will spill over into 2021, as well as some proactive measures on receivables that edotco has, largely stemming from the second-tier customers in Pakistan and Cambodia. That has resulted in revenue growth of about four percent. EBITDA just marginally below, down by -0.8, whilst PATAMI came down by about 21%. cost per gig, as you recall in our December briefing, the Analyst Investors Day, we talked about a few targets that we've outlined for ourselves for the next four years, two of which are presented here, cost per gig.

Insofar as 2020 is concerned, cost per gig fell by 35%. That's on track to reach our target of less than MYR 0.10 per gig by 2024. The board approved a second interim dividend of MYR 0.05 yesterday. That brings the total dividend for 2020 to MYR 0.07. This certainly will be a transitioning period for us towards a high dividend company. The focus now is on the DPS rather than DPR. In the past, we've always articulated a DPR strategy. I think for all concerned, it's much easier to focus on the dividend quantum or dividend per share as a target. Again, the target is at least MYR 0.20 by 2024. Insofar as headline KPI is concerned, we continue to maintain that we will not prescribe specific targets for 2021.

We wish, however, to give guidance for revenue, excluding device, and EBITDA growth for 2021 to be a low single-digit percentage. CapEx guidance of about MYR 6.5 billion. Of course, we expect the accelerated depreciation to weigh on Celcom and Robi in the near term. However, this puts the two companies in a better position in the longer term. Now, I'll hand over to Vivek now to take us through the detailed results, covering the group as well as specific telcos and edotco as well as ADS. Vivek?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thank you, Dato'. Very good afternoon to all of you. Good morning to those who are on the western side. Let me start with the first slide. This is the only slide which I'll talk about on reported numbers. After that it's going to be underlying performance of each of the operating company. In terms of reported, we declined at 1.5% for full year. If you look at quarter-on-quarter, we gained 2.5% revenue. EBITDA remained flat at 0.4%, slightly on the reported basis. We saw a quarter-on-quarter dip in EBITDA, mainly coming out of the XL Axiata, and also from edotco impact of the credit losses which have been booked at the end of 2020. Profit-wise, it is around 65% lower than the last year. PATMI 75%. This I'll just take a little bit of while to explain.

Last year, if you recall, we did gain a one-time benefits of sale of M1, gain from divestiture of our ADS businesses and the non-core ADS businesses and the disposal of rights of Idea shares, which did give us overall gain of around MYR 628 million. This year, we have basically accelerated 3G shutdown in most of our markets, which has resulted in around negative MYR 604 impact booked in December 2020. Apart from that, we had a tower gain in XL Axiata back in quarter one, which gave us a benefit of MYR 285 million. Net-net between last year and this year, on reported basis, there is a negative impact of around MYR 965 million. That's what broadly explains why the profit number for 2020 looks much below the reported profit numbers of 2019. If I go to the next slide.

Underlying performance, it is much better than what we had anticipated at the middle of the year. With revenue dropping by -one percent, EBITDA showing a 1.1% growth. If I adjust for the employee restructuring program in Celcom, the EBITDA growth is of around +2.1%. This impact is mainly profit is lower by around close to 9.4%, mainly coming out of the higher D&A, lower contribution from Ncell and edotco. edotco, as I said, mostly on account of credit losses booked in December. That said, revenue did show a positive growth in quarter. Quarter-on-quarter, +three percent, whereas EBITDA did have a marginal drop, as I said earlier, because of mainly Ncell and edotco. In terms of the businesses, I think the struggle last year has been mostly in Ncell, where revenues have actually dropped by 22.5%, coming from all factors, which is data, voice, and ILD.

The positive news is last quarter, we did see a comeback or a recovery in Nepal. As far as profit is concerned, MYR 865 million. The lower profit from last year has been accounted for mainly in D&A, which is around MYR 337 million. Lower contribution coming from Ncell and edotco, and higher losses in ADS. If you recall in quarter two announcement, we did mention losses of around MYR 40 million on account of the e-Tunai Rakyat program, which was run. If I exclude that, ADS numbers are pretty much similar to 2019. Quarter-on-quarter, PATAMI is down by 13.6%, mainly again, coming out of the contribution this time from XL for the quarter and edotco. If I go to the next one, I think this broadly explains how the movement between the last year normalized PATAMI and this year MYR 869 compares.

If you see, the larger part of that gap comes from the D&A. We did see a positive MYR 150 million coming from EBITDA. Positive effect on tax is largely coming from the effect of deferred tax in XL, which has been lower than last year, as well as Robi, because if you remember last year in 2019, we did have adjustment on taxes, and in 2020, we got the benefit of lower tax rates consequent to the listing of company in December 2020. As far as the reported PATAMI and the underlying PATAMI is concerned, the large part of that gap comes from the impact of accelerated depreciation. Accelerated depreciation is mostly in XL. Out of that MYR 604 million, MYR 372 million comes from XL and around MYR 126 million comes from Celcom.

Other than that, it's mostly the other factors, which includes partly the Celcom restructuring cost as well as the forex translation. If I go to the next slide, I think this is what we've been monitoring closely which is in terms of cash flow. Our OFCF has moved up from MYR 1.8 billion to MYR 3.2 billion on a reported basis. As you know, now OFCF does have the ROU assets on the EBITDA side, which benefits the EBITDA growth. If we normalize for that, the adjusted OFCF has grown from MYR 337 million in 2019 to MYR 1.6 billion in 2020. Adjusted OFCF, if you look at it, comes from all the operating companies except Robi. In 2019, if you recall, we had challenges in Robi to import equipment because of the non-availability of no objection certificate, which has been caught up in 2020 by increased investment in Bangladesh.

Other than that, mostly coming out of the improvement in EBITDA as well as lower CapEx spend in 2020 versus 2019. If I go to the next slide. The balance sheet remains resilient. As I said, the strong OFCF resulting in strong cash position of MYR 7.2 billion. Gross debt to EBITDA 2.57, which is lower from 2.89 because of around MYR 500 million loan repayment, which happened in November 2020. Other than that, balance sheet is strong for a reason that most of our borrowing now are at fixed rate, which are at extremely low rates which we got the benefit of using the window in August for our Sukuk and the term loan program. Other than that, our maturities are much longer, which provides significant stability in the balance sheet for the group.

If I go to Celcom, a strong performance in Celcom in Q4 , with revenues holding on to what the quarter three numbers were. If I look at including devices, quarter-on-quarter revenue grew by around 2.7%. Year-on-year, 8.8% drop in revenue, mostly coming out of the lower revenue which we got in Q2 . After that H2 over H1 has shown a strong recovery. We've also added around 300,000 new customers in the year, which brings us back to pretty much the customer levels pre-pandemic. The impact on revenue has also been because of lower ARPUs in 2020. EBITDA, strong performance quarter-on-quarter with 10.6% growth in EBITDA and year-on-year EBITDA growth of 2.54% if I exclude the impact of the ERP program, which we ran in quarter one this year.

Stable free cash flow and improved PATAMI, if I adjust for the accelerated depreciation and the impact of the ERP program, the PATAMI has improved by around 11.5% over 2019. XL Axiata, strong performance despite the price war and pandemic condition, in Indonesia. Last quarter was a bit of a dampener because of heightened competition, and also a weakened economic environment and the impact of the government-run program for subsidized data offering in Q4. That has basically resulted in lower EBITDA in quarter four. However, on a year-to-date basis, we've seen a growth of 3.8% in revenue and around 11.2% growth in EBITDA. That's basically that EBITDA improvement as well as lower CapEx spend in 2020 has resulted in a much stronger cash flow generation. That has resulted in improved PATAMI, if I normalize for the impact of tower disposal and the accelerated depreciation.

Quickly on Ncell, as Dato' said, has been one of the challenging year for us, for three factors. One factor's been the prolonged COVID-19 impact. Second has been basically, the spectrum constraint. If you recall, we did get spectrum last year, which has still not been allocated to us. That has resulted in spectrum constraint, limiting us from driving data growth and monetization in that market. Also the fact that a large part of Nepal market is also having the fixed presence where there has been a shift of consumption of data, resulting in lower active subscriber base, relative to previous year. That's basically resulted in lower revenue for the year. Core revenue dropped by around 22.9%, ILD dropped by 21.6%. ILD we were expecting, not at the pace at which it has reduced.

That said, we are seeing some positive signs, specifically on core revenue. Quarter-on-quarter core revenue grew by 5.7%. EBITDA for the quarter-on-quarter remained +3.5%. Year-on-year mainly resulting from the lower revenue drop by around 25%. Free cash flow, +13.4%, mainly coming out of lower CapEx spend, consequent to the delayed allocation of spectrum for us. PATAMI, resulting from the lower revenue as well as new borrowing, which we did in April last year of around NPR 20 billion. Robi, a strong performance from Robi. Continue to have sustainable profitability development, in the business, and we continue to aggressively expand our 4G network presence there. Revenues have been impacted mainly because of the COVID impact. However, the company continued to focus on its cost initiative and efficiency plans, driving EBITDA growth of around 11.8% comparably 2019. Free cash flow marginally lower.

As I said earlier, there was a catch-up CapEx in 2020, from 2019, which was delayed because of the absence of NOC in 2019. Strong PATAMI development for the year, coming down from a good EBITDA improvement there. Next slide, Dialog. Strong earning growth continues to deliver good performance despite the economic conditions and the COVID-19 impact. Quarter-on-quarter revenue growth of 5.8%, year-to-date revenue growth of three percent, resulting in a strong EBITDA development of 5.2% quarter-on-quarter and 8.9% in year-to-date basis. Also improvement by around 2.3% on EBITDA margin from 40% - 42.3%. That basically translates into improved free cash flow of 21.9% and higher profits of 11.7%. If I normalize the effect of Forex as well as the accelerated depreciation, the PATAMI growth in Dialog has been around 33.8% on a year-to-date basis.

It's a very strong performance coming from Dialog. Smart continues to deliver well for us, quarter-on-quarter, 17.6% is a bit of adjustments reclassification from Q2 - Q4 Q3 - Q4. On a year-to-date basis, 3.8% growth, despite the fact lot of tourism and roaming revenues have been impacted in the Cambodian market, but the core prepaid revenue has done well, despite the situation around the COVID, at 3.8% and the EBITDA growth of 6.6%. The business continues to focus on efficiencies to drive the improved margin, resulting in strong cash flow generation. PATAMI marginally impacted because of the 3G write-off, if you adjust for that, then PATAMI would be reflective of the improvement in EBITDA margins there. Boost, the digital businesses.

I think businesses continue to be developing in line with our expectation, with strong growth in terms of user base in Boost, reaching 8.8 million. Merchant base reaching 22,000, 24,000, and gross transaction value doubling from last year to. Also, the fact that we are now looking at Boost delivering positive contribution at the variable cost level. Aspirasi, which is the microfinance business and micro-insurance business, has been picking up steam with around MYR 207 million worth disbursement of finance loans to around 9,000 odd merchants, and micro-insurance policies of 30,000 being distributed during the year. Digital advertising business continues to do well, runs another year of positive profit and has added new partners during the year and continues to be looked at positively by external investors, to come in and participate into the overall growth of the business.

The business has moved away from being a pure agency business to much stronger outcome-based business, which provides end-to-end solutions to the companies. That's on the digital businesses. edotco. If you look at edotco, revenue continues to develop well. Marginally below our expectations because of delayed orders coming from the MNOs in some of the markets because of the COVID pressures. However, EBITDA impacted quarter-on-quarter by around close to 20%, mainly coming out of the credit losses of around MYR 78 million for the year from some of the tier two customers, and some of them have been impacted either because of the COVID or they have been impacted because of the regulations where in Cambodia, one of the licensee there, license was canceled by the regulator. However, with moderated CapEx, the free cash flows remain positive.

PATAMI impact negative mainly coming out of the credit losses booked at the end of the year. Sorry. If I go to the next one, dividend. If you recall, we had paid MYR 0.02 interim dividend back in August last year. Pleased to inform that board approved yesterday the final dividend of MYR 0.05, which takes the total dividend payout of MYR 0.07 for the year. This is on the backdrop of continuing risk around global pandemic. If I go to the next one. This is just to give you a perspective in terms of how our cash flows are built, for us to be able to go to what we are looking at a DPS target of MYR 0.20 by 2024. If you look at our OpCos generated around MYR 4.4 billion of the operating free cash flow.

If I adjust for the impact of ROU, total earnings coming from the operating companies is around MYR 2.4. ADS consumed around MYR 265 million of cash flow. Going forward, we've been communicating that ADS would by and large, get external funding to support its growth, which would mean that the requirement of funding for the ADS business is expected to come down. We have MYR 316 million of net finance cost for the year. This also with the new borrowing which we've done, we should be seeing a reduction coming going forward on our finance cost. The others is basically relating to the corporate center OpEx and some of the eliminations between edotco and some of our MNOs, which is around MYR 156 million. Group as such generates, and based on 2020 numbers, generated around MYR 1.6 billion operating free cash flow.

Which is a fairly strong cash generation for the year, which we believe is going to be the path forward for us to reach MYR 0.20 of dividend by 2024. With that, I'll hand it over back to Dato' on his comments moving forward.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Vivek. As you can see, we are rather encouraged by the incredible performance of edotco. The good result, good effort, strong efforts by the team at Celcom has manifested itself again in the Q4 . Of course, there's still plenty of room and a lot of work that the Celcom team is doing. I'd like to congratulate the team there at Celcom for making the results for the Q4 . We continue to monitor the performance going into 2021. As I've said earlier, we do not intend to give any specific headline KPIs for this financial year. However, the guidance we like to give is a revenue and EBITDA growth of a low single digit. At the same time, CapEx indication of about MYR 6.5 billion. Some of the deferral from last year will spill into this year, no doubt.

At the same time, we're mindful of looking at network capacity constraints that we're currently facing throughout the pandemic. Data traffic has gone up significantly. It just makes sense for us to continue to invest. At the same time, the big question mark is the traffic data growth. Is that going to be sustained at that level? The answer is probably no. We are not quite sure where would be the equilibrium, if you like, post-pandemic. Again, post-pandemic is anybody's guess right now. Of course, the vaccination program is going to help. For all intent purposes, 2021 means we remain rather cautious on the outlook for 2021. Next slide. In terms of opportunities and risks for the organization, I'd like to spend a bit of time here.

From an opportunities point of view, we will continue to make investments in ex-Java, Indonesia, as well as non-CDM in Bangladesh. The 4G network rollout results thus far have been rather encouraging and of course, given the penetration rates in those two countries, these are two growth markets that we see in our footprint countries. No doubt, the continued efficiency, the focus for us is on the continued efficiency improvements through the Collective Brain initiative. We are in the midst of finalizing the procurement for our core and needs for the next three years. We hope to see a very encouraging price book from the vendors that we can probably share down the road. In terms of ADS monetization, money in the bank from GE, that's a deal that's included.

The focus now for the digital financial services as well as ADA, and by the way, ADA, we're going to explain a bit more later on, but ADA has morphed itself into a digital and artificial analytics and AI company. It's moved on from the initial days of digital advertising, and that's simply because of the work that they needed to do to serve the customers in the digital advertising space. There's a lot of focus on analytics these days as well as on AI. The point here is that we continue to receive a lot of interest from would-be investors in those two businesses. Hopefully, we can make some announcements in a couple of weeks' time. That's a nice lead into the next item, the digital bank license. As you know, Bank Negara has announced the digital bank framework on the last day of last year.

We are very encouraged with the, if you like, framework that's been announced, because we like to think that we are able to tick all the boxes, so to speak. In due course, I do hope to announce the joint venture, the equity partnership for us to submit to the central bank in pursuit of this digital bank license. Hopefully, I can also announce the commercial partnerships that we are working on, so that the ecosystem of the digital bank can be presented, if you like, as part of the submission to show the complete nature of what makes a digital bank. Of course, as we've alluded to, we like to think that the ability to raise $1.5 billion US, if I remember the date correctly, 19th August last year, was when we raised the funds, $1.5 billion at very attractive rates.

Vivek's always smiling since then. From the ratios that we have, and cash position we have, we are encouraged that we can support the growth investments as well as the digital adoption needs of our businesses. Now, in so far as risk is concerned, as I've alluded to, we think the COVID-19 impact will continue for a bit of time in this financial year, way into perhaps Q2 or even Q3 . It's not as straightforward as you all would appreciate, just everyone getting vaccinated. If you like, the rollout of the vaccination program is also, in itself, a challenge, but we are rather encouraged by the progress that each of the countries are making, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Indonesia, and of course, in Malaysia as well.

As I've mentioned, the strain that is in place on the network, rising from high data traffic, as well as physical rollout of our tower business and MNOs, that in itself is a challenge. Some regulatory uncertainties in Malaysia, Indonesia, and Nepal. Just to clarify, in Malaysia, it's around JENDELA and of course, the 5G SPV, which I'll talk about separately. Next bullet point. In Indonesia, there's the Omnibus Law, which we are still waiting for specifics. There's some announcements on ownership, if you like, for some of the businesses. Which again, is a very strong testimony in terms of the government's wish to attract foreign direct investments. We're encouraged by that. Of course, Nepal, which continues to pose as a challenge, not because of anything. Right now, as you would appreciate, there is no government per se, because the parliament has been dissolved.

We're waiting for the developments on that front before we can actively and proactively engage with the regulator as well as the ministry, to secure the L900 spectrum for our business to roll out the network for this financial year. Insofar as the 5G SPV announcement is concerned, as you know Well, first of all, Axiata is an organization, being part of the digital and technology space, yet we continue to support the country's aspirations, whether it's JENDELA and, of course, the Malaysia Digital Economy Blueprint, because we believe that the connectivity that we can provide will develop countries, not just Malaysia. In fact, it's all other emerging markets that we operate in. Of course, for us in Malaysia, the Digital Economy Blueprint, we'll be able to raise the country's capacity in the shift towards digital economy, as well as leveraging on the industrial revolution IR 4.0 opportunities.

Now, insofar as the announcement of the 5G SPV is concerned, that was made last Friday, Celcom continues to engage with MCMC, the industry, and all other stakeholders on the establishment and intended operations of the SPV to ensure the successful rollout of the 5G infrastructure. At this stage, there are no details on the construct, the commercial arrangements and so on. A lot of work still needs to be done, so we'd rather reserve or not comment on any aspects of the 5G SPV. Of course, it's the subject of a lot of press coverage, comments made by rating agencies. Until and unless details are spelt out, we, at this stage, rather not make our comments.

Suffice to say, we will continue to engage the regulator, MCMC, the industry, and all other stakeholders to make sure that the intended operation of the 5G SPV will ensure a successful rollout of the 5G infrastructure. On that note, I think we've come to the conclusion of our presentation. Over to you, Clare.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay. Thank you, Dato'. We move on to the Q&A session. There will be two options for you to ask your question. Option one, you can ask the question verbally. Basically, raise your hand, go to that function in the taskbar, wait till your name is called out, unmute yourself, ask your question, and please also remember to mute your line after that. The second option, you can type your question in the chat room. You just click on, Show Conversation, and you can type your question there, and we will take your question from there on. Happy to take questions now. Okay, we do see hands up already. Perhaps we can start with Fong from CIMB. Fong, please unmute your mic and ask your questions.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Okay. Hi.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Hi, Fong.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Good afternoon, everyone. Good afternoon, Dato. Thank you so much for the call today. A couple of questions from me. Let's start off with Celcom. As Dato mentioned, a pretty good quarter for the fourth quarter. I wanted to ask a bit more questions on the operational performance.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sure.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

We have seen a third consecutive quarter of positive net adds for prepaid.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yes.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Can you provide more color on what's driving that? Is it short-term promotions that Celcom is doing, or is it something more sustainable? Do you think that these subs would stick in the coming quarters? Also if you can provide some color on the postpaid net adds as well, which were quite healthy. Again, what's driving that? Was there any specific plans or promotions that is gaining Celcom this traction?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Also, my second question for Celcom is on the cost side. We saw a couple of cost items dropping a fair bit in the fourth quarter. Were there any exceptional items? If so, can you list them down, and what were the amounts in the fourth quarter? Okay.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sure.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

That's my question for Celcom. Moving to Ncell. You talked about the green shoots that we saw in the Q4 . What is driving that recovery in subscriber base and also the improved data price elasticity that you mentioned in the presentation? What is the outlook for revenue growth into this year? Is the EBITDA margin at high 50s sustainable, you think? Lastly, my question for edotco. After the bad debts that you provided for in the fourth quarter, do you think that that's it, or are there still some pending ones in 2021? Yep. Those are my three questions. Thank you.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Very good detailed questions, Fong. Two marks. I'll touch a bit on the Celcom experience in the Q4 , and then I'd like to invite Idham and Jennifer, CEO and CFO respectively, who's also on the call, to provide better clarity on the questions that you've raised. On Ncell, Vivek can address the price elasticity as requested. I can talk about edotco insofar as the second-tier customers are concerned. Now, on Celcom, it's a encouraging performance. If you look at the overall results of revenue came down by about 8.8%. The good news is we've managed to recover back the subscriber base. If you recall, we lost a fair bit of subscribers in the Q1 . Yeah. We're now back to where we were pre-COVID. We managed to add on something like 306,000 subscribers.

Now, the explanation for that drop largely is because the number of subscribers we managed to achieve was towards the end of Q3 and in the Q4 , we were not able to generate the revenue to recover from the revenue loss in the first six months. Hopefully that trend will continue. In fact, looking at the general results, we are very encouraged. Insofar as the nature of what's driving it, there's a conscious effort to make sure that this is not a numbers game, but it's a profitable game. Perhaps Idham and Jennifer, can I get you guys to give a bit more details on that? You're on mute, Idham. Idham, you're on mute. No, can't hear you.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Can you hear me now?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yes, I can hear you now.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Okay.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sounds like a séance.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

All right. There was a mute at the system level, so we just unmuted it. Firstly, thank you, Dato', for that quick answer, and thank you, Fong, for the question. We have seen some good recovery in the Q3 and also the Q4 . I think continued acquisition of new customers, about over 300,000 for each of the quarter. It's a good trend that we are seeing. We believe it's as result of three main drivers. Number one is, post the MCO, we introduced some little bit more competitive products in the market, especially with our unlimited prepaid. That seems to be resonating well with the public, that was one of the first driver. The second also, we have improved in terms of our trade operation.

The trade performance is showing a very good and very encouraging trend in terms of active dealers, even to the long tail of the dealers. Last but not least, perhaps because of the MCO, the demand for the broadband and for the mobile services has increased quite significantly. The fact that we have the largest and the widest coverage also helps because we're seeing demand from some areas that we have the best coverage out there. That's probably the three main drivers in terms of growth from both prepaid, as well as postpaid. It's interesting to note that coming out, during the MCO, we were able to transform our operations and work to adapt to the situation. We're also seeing quite an encouraging increase in terms of sales and revenue coming in through our digital channels.

On the cost and for the Q4, I'm going to pass on to Jen, to talk a few of these big items.

Jennifer Wong
CFO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Hi, Fong. Thank you for the question. In Q4, generally in terms of the operational, the OpEx, it has been on a declining trend because we have been embarking on the cost optimization. Having said that, you're right. In Q4, we have got a one-off. We have a very prudent financial practice. Because of the settlement that we actually managed to finalize in Q4 from the tax front, we actually managed to have a reversal because of that, of close to roughly MYR 90 million. I think that answered the-

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay.

Jennifer Wong
CFO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Yeah.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Vivek, on Ncell?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah. On Ncell, I would say that, I'm going to put a bit of caveat because this is short Q1 we are talking about.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

It's just the green shoots on the recovery in that particular market.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

That said, I think we've seen positive development on revenue-generating base in the quarter, which had seen a decline throughout the year. That one of the reasons for that was once the pandemic hit, a lot of our consumers, specific to the low-value consumers, moved back to their villages, and we do not have still 4G coverage in that market. That resulted in the revenue-generating base coming down. Those customers have started to come back into the cities, and that's seen the effect on improvement in revenue-generating base. Second is, I think new products being launched by us in that market, which are data packs, which has resulted in improvement in ARPU, coming in, which is the effect of basically elasticity of the higher data volumes, which have been given.

Third factor is the voice revenue, which had declined because of the sporadic shutdowns happening in that market, has also started recovering. We've seen positive development, and we expect that to continue. As I said, our biggest constraint at this point in time is the spectrum availability. Because as you know, the pricing, the realization or yields in Nepal are probably one of the highest. As we bring that down to be able to be more competitive, we require to give more data, and that's where the spectrum unavailability puts a constraint in.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sorry.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Oh, well, no.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

No, yeah.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay. Thanks, Vivek. No, we are fortunate to have Adlan on the call as well. Adlan, on the question of more provisions, did we expect more provisions from the second-tier customers in the year to come?

Adlan Tajudin
CEO, EDOTCO Group

Thank you, Dato'. I think the provisions that were made are primarily the tier two customers in Cambodia and Pakistan. Primarily are those that did not survive the pandemic, and of course, one of the tier two customer licenses was actually revoked in Cambodia. We still do have operations with some tier two customers remaining. However, these tier two customers are part of a bigger conglomerate. We do not expect any more provisions coming from this tier two customer because it is either part of a bigger conglomerate or they have a corporate guarantee that stands by against the debt. We think that we've taken the hit all in 2020, and we do not expect any more coming from the tier two customer this year.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah. Thanks, Adlan. As Adlan had articulated, the second-tier customers, the unfortunate turn of events where the license got revoked. Ordinarily, you wouldn't have expected that to happen. Now, at the same time, it's a provision that's made. The team is consciously trying to arrive at a settlement so that we can recover some of the provisions that we've made. Since we're on this topic, Fong, maybe before anyone asks a question on the Myanmar situation, as you know, we have a business in Myanmar. Since Adlan is on a roll here, we have 1,800 towers in business in Myanmar. The good news is that the military seems to want to make sure foreign direct investors remain in the country. Business goes on as usual. Because edotco is critical, if you like, for the telecommunications infrastructure, I personally don't think that there's going to be any impact.

Well, not in the immediate term, nothing we can see so far. It's still early days. We are treading it rather carefully to make sure that our business remains intact. Of course, from an operational point of view, it's slightly limited. Maybe, Adlan, anything you want to convey to the participants today?

Adlan Tajudin
CEO, EDOTCO Group

Yeah. I think from the operation standpoint, of course, there is internet disconnection from 1:00 A.M. to 9:00 A.M. There's a curfew from 8:00 P.M. - 4:00 A.M. that's been implemented in Myanmar today. I think the biggest challenge in Myanmar today are probably what you call the CDM. The Civil Disobedience Movement, where you see the civilians, the people are going out to demonstrate. That, to a certain extent, have actually impacted the public service. Being doctors, nurses, banks, or even the custom office and all that. Operationally today, there's not much impact to us. We are still keeping our SLA and all that. However, we can see that in the coming time, there would be a little bit of slowdown in terms of rollout, and all that, given the fact that permits and all that is going to be tough.

I think one of the other areas that we are also seeing a little bit of delay is the clearance of equipment at the Customs site as well. Today you can see that Customs are even not coming into office. We are monitoring the situation. It's manageable at this point in time, but I think, yeah, we'll need to see how things develop over time.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Okay. Thank you so much guys for those answers. Can I just go back to Ncell with regards to the question on the EBITDA margin for this year, is it sustainable at 80 basis points? Maybe one more question, if I can throw in for Dato'. How much dividend per share can we expect for this year?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Well, I'll try to answer your margin question as well. I think as Vivek said, it really depends on the spectrum availability, the L900. The team is working really hard to try to make sure that we get the spectrum in time, because as you would appreciate, rolling it out is another challenge. Yeah. 56.9% for 2020 is a quite remarkable achievement under the circumstances. We think around, I don't want to speculate or give a number, but it hinges really on the availability of the spectrum.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

I think what I would add is that the cost of operations in Nepal are not that high, which allows us to hold on to a fairly good margins. Also the fact that ILD does give strong margins to that business. Clearly, the dependency on high margins is on the growth of core revenue. If that positive direction which we are seeing continues to happen, then we should see a high 50% margin remaining. I think that really, and that, as Dato said, is also quite dependent on the availability of spectrum.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Insofar as dividend is concerned, Fong, we are trying to transition towards a DPS regime rather than a DPR regime. For 2020, it's 74% of adjusted underlying PATAMI. Compare that at 86%, 85% in 2019, 2018 respectively. In terms of the quantum per share, we certainly will make an effort to improve on the MYR 0.07 for the year for 2020. Directionally, that's where we're heading, towards the MYR 0.20 for 2024. Expect a better than MYR 0.07 2020, and of course, this depends on performance for 2021. Again, we were asked, well, in a way, the same question in terms of our outlook performance for 2021. As I've said, the challenges are still there. We like to think that the business is sustainable so far as the telco industry is concerned.

Fong Chuin
Assistant VP, CIMB

Okay, understood. Thank you so much, Dato', Vivek, and the team.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Fong.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thank you.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thank you, ma'am.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Fong. Okay, we move on to the next questions, coming through from Alex from AM.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

Okay. Thanks very much. I have a couple of questions. Thanks, Dato', for holding this session. One is regarding your CapEx. You've indicated that you're looking at MYR 6.5 billion. Last year, your CapEx guidance was MYR 6.6 billion, and you've only spent about MYR 5.3 billion. Including your MYR 6.5 billion, is that the MYR 1.3 billion left over that you did not spend and you're bringing it into this year? Is there any likelihood that this will likely be deferred as well?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Again, the challenges is from a rollout point of view, the physical limitations that we face. It's not so much of deferment, but because like I said, it's trying to balance it because of the network demands that's been placed on our network. The capacity, we need to continue to monitor that, and we might need to invest. Yes, mathematically, the delta of what was guidance that was given last year, it seemed like a lot of it was deferred into this year. The guidance we're giving this year includes some of that, because we expect some savings from the procurement exercise we are undertaking. We should be able to conclude that. Vivek?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Well, I think Dato' is right. It's very difficult to say how much is really the deferment to the next year and what is really new CapEx for next year. That said, I think, this is on a BAU basis, and which does include our continuing investment in non-CCD as well as ex Java. I think that's how the CapEx has been built. There are still uncertainties hanging around what could be the requirement of CapEx in Malaysia, for example, to meet the requirements of JENDELA or the early shutdown of 3G. That we don't know at this point in time. We also are looking at the implications of the merger happening in Indonesia and what would that mean in terms of the CapEx requirement.

This CapEx, what we've projected of MYR 6.5 billion, is to meet the growth numbers, which we talked about, a low single digit in 2021, to support that. If there are things going to change depending on how these two markets specifically move, we will have to revise the CapEx numbers.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Alex, on CapEx, we're trying to delineate the CapEx for edotco. In the MYR 6.5 number, there's about MYR 860 that's attributable to edotco. Why I would like to differentiate that moving forward, and you'll see this in the first quarter 2021 results later on when we do this same session in May. edotco CapEx, as you would appreciate, is very different in the sense that the minute they commission a tower, revenue kicks in. It's good that edotco has a high CapEx number because it's revenue generating contractually. It's just trying to make sure that we are on the same page in understanding the nature of the CapEx. That's more a placeholder for our Q1 presentation later on.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

I see. Okay. Could you give us a further breakdown of the MYR 6.5 billion? Like how much is Celcom, and the other regional operations?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sure. Celcom, we are looking at around MYR 1.1. We are looking at around MYR 2 billion. These are all in MYR, right? MYR 2 billion for Indonesia. We are looking at around close to MYR 650 million for.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Dialog

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Dialog. Around close to MYR 1 billion or MYR 900 million in Robi. Smart would be around MYR 370 million. Ncell around MYR 300 million. edotco, as Dato' said, around MYR 860 million. Balance is for others, which includes platforms for ADS as well as CapEx required for our digital lab. That's broadly the breakup of the MYR 6.5 billion.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

Okay. Regarding your depreciation, since you already written down your 3G infrastructure by about MYR 600 million last year, could you give us a bit of guidance? Are you looking at a single-digit increase in terms of your depreciation this year, given that you have written down quite substantial of your assets?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah. Firstly, Alex, quite semantics, and you and I are not the accountants in the room, but I'd rather use the word accelerated depreciation rather than write down. Just technicality more than anything else, because the assets are still in use. Yeah, customers are still using the 3G network. We still need to migrate the 3G customers to 4G, and that also means VoLTE licenses and capacity again. The concern sometimes is that we still have a lot of customers on 2G. I know it's a separate topic, but that has a bearing on the CapEx we need to spend. Yeah. So far, a single-digit increase in depreciation in 2021. Vivek?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

No. I think, as Dato' said, first of all, it's acceleration of depreciation, and it's not a very large part of the overall base for us because a lot of 3G CapEx was already depreciated and new CapEx is largely coming for 4G, and some of the market is pretty new. That said, also, accelerated depreciation has short-term negative impact because it pre-pones. It's not a write-off. It pre-pones the charge into the P&L. 2021, we will see some impact of a higher depreciation coming in because of the acceleration, which has happened. That said, I think we do not see a fundamentally very difference in the otherwise run rate of depreciation for us. Going forward from 2022 onwards, we should see the positive effect coming in for this acceleration.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

Okay, great. Thanks. Can we go into Celcom? I'm just looking at the cost. Just going a bit more granular on the expenses. I noticed for Q4 , your direct expenses and your network costs had came down significantly. Was there any kind of adjustments there? What sort of run rate should we be looking at?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Jennifer, should I take that question?

Jennifer Wong
CFO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Yeah, sure. If I may start. I think with the direct expenses, it is driven by a couple of things. First is, especially in terms of roaming and all that, money actually goes away during the MCO. Irrelative as compared to what is in the prior year, of course, the number continue to come down. In addition to that, the device sale is also one of the key driver in terms of the direct cost. Having said that, the direct cost, in essence, has actually continued to come down, mainly driven by the top line, actually. On the other hand, the network cost, there is quite a couple of things that has actually happened during Q4. There are some true ups that we have actually done in Q4. Having said that, when we look at the network cost, it continued to trend down as we speak.

Whilst the traffic continued to increase, we are finding new ways to actually try to fulfill the service while maintaining the cost that we actually have in network cost. Hopefully that answer the question, Alex.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

Yes. Okay, that's wonderful. Could we go into Ncell regarding your spectrum allocation? Could you just let us know why, what is the reason for the delay? Was it due to the MCO and the COVID, that's why the government is delaying in the award of this spectrum? Is there any particular company-specific reason the government is delaying the awards?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

No, I think the challenge right now is there is no government, because as you remember, I can't remember exact date. As you recall, yeah, the prime minister dissolved the parliament. This is probably November, I think.

Jennifer Wong
CFO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

I think so.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah. Maybe Dr. Hans. Are you on the line, Dr. Hans? Yeah. Essentially, there is no government.

Hans Wijayasuriya
CEO of Telecommunications Business and Group Executive Director, Axiata Group Berhad

Yes.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

I think insofar as the administration is concerned, I think they'll be waiting for a new minister to be appointed, in charge of the ministry before they take any action. Hans, do you want to add on to that?

Hans Wijayasuriya
CEO of Telecommunications Business and Group Executive Director, Axiata Group Berhad

Yes. You're right, Dato'. Actually, it is spectrum that has already been secured via an auction, and it's an allocation and a spectrum and a technology neutrality approval, which is pending and, you're right, pending the administration stabilizing and having permanent decision-making, it's getting delayed.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Alex Goh
Analyst, AmInvestment Bank

Okay. Thank you very much. That's all for me for now. Thanks.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Alex.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Alex. Okay, let's move on to next questions coming through from Prem from Macquarie. Prem, please go ahead.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. A few questions from me. First of all, with regards to Celcom, with the unlimited plans that we have launched, what are the learnings that we have got from this plan? Where is the network in relation to the experiences that we're having with the unlimited data? Should we not be accelerating CapEx on that front? That's one. Secondly, with regards to JENDELA, how far along have we progressed from a Celcom perspective? Again, where are the pain points, and how does that change your viewpoints with regards to the progress of Celcom's transformation, et cetera?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Only two, Prem?

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah, I think it's already gone on very long.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

From Prem.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

No, I'm not challenging you. I'm not challenging you because I thought you said you had a couple, so I thought it would be three or four. Anyway, sorry.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

A couple of mistakes. Semantics.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Sorry, Prem.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

It's true that, but it's very deep coming from Prem.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

A deep question. Thank you, Prem. Yes. The unlimited, we launched it since it start to catch up during the middle of last year. It's really is one of the product that speaks to the consumers. I think as a result, in the second half, even though throughout the year we increased about 306,000 customers. On the second half alone, we actually added about 650,000 customers onto the network, which is something that our network is still able to handle because as you know, we have 11,500 sites which are handling this, and we are doing a lot of network transformation to cater for both the added subscribers as well as the increase in utilization or the demand because of the MCO. We are progressing very well on three prongs. Number one is on the upgrading itself on the network.

The network upgrades to add more equipment, that's about 2,000 sites. I'm sorry, about 2,700 sites that we're doing. We're also doing optimization, cluster-based optimization. I think one of the most important upgrades that we're doing is to deploy more L900 spectrum to build for a better coverage as well as the capacity. That's some of the key learnings. Some of the challenge that we may have is, because of the high increase in demand, we're also seeing possible substitution of all our mobile network is being used as a primary access to the internet in the home. This is something that we are learning and we are going through a process to manage that. That's one on the unlimited. On the JENDELA, of course, we are working very closely with the regulators trying to meet the JENDELA targets, and we are doing that.

We have incorporate that into our plan. As you know, both JENDELA has both our own plan plus some of the USP plans through the clawbacks and also through the Zone three and Zone four. This is being executed. So far, we are on track to look at both from the coverage perspective as well as upgrading the network to reach the speed that's being demanded by MCMC. We are working on that. One good thing that we may be able to have a bit of an advantage because we already have one of the widest coverage in the country. The incremental coverage that's being asked to meet the JENDELA target probably is just a little bit more incremental. Yeah. I hope that answer your question. Yeah, Prem?

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah. Just to follow up from.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

If I can. Prem. Sorry, Prem.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Maybe I can just ask Idham to clarify a bit. Our average consumption these days is about 22 gig, yeah, Idham? Just so you know, Prem, we see outliers, some consumers consuming a lot more, significantly more, a couple of times more than the 22 gig average. Idham, maybe you want to explain what are the things we're doing internally to try to manage that as well.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Yeah. Yes, we do see some of this trend that we are managing, as I mentioned just now, how some of the wireless network is being used to substitute the fiber network. We're seeing some trends on somehow We also don't know how the utilization goes as high as that. It's possibly that tethering and all that is being used. We are looking at some of this, what would you call it, abusive behavior of the network. The moment these abusive behaviors are there, they are taking the capacity away from the rest of the people who paid for the service. Those are something that we are working on as well.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Go on, Prem.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Yeah, thanks. Couple of things. The one thing which worries me is the L900, because we've learned the lessons in the past of using low frequencies just to get the coverage, only to have the user experience impacted. I hope that's not the be-all and end-all of the network. When it comes back to JENDELA, I think the regulator had speed requirements put out, but that really boils down to the fiberization of sites, et cetera.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Yeah.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

How far along have we got, and any problems with achieving those goals now that we have agreed that telcos will be the fourth utility?

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Well, the-

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Sorry?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Good question. Let me address the.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

No, I didn't hear the last bit that Prem said. Oh, okay. Telcos will be the fourth utility. Okay. Yes.

On the L900, Prem, yes, L900 is to extend the coverage. I think that's one. L900 is not the only band that we use for the 4G. L900 is complemented by the base band is on the 1800, and we have also migrated about 10 megahertz from 3G of 2100 into LTE, and we have now using also 20 megahertz of L2600. The whole spectrum of band. The L900, instead of just the coverage, I think you probably know that the spectrum propensity that actually would improve the indoor penetration. It will also improve the customer experience inside their homes, and also inside the building. We are not using L900 as do all and all win all. It is to complement the existing other bands that we have, as well as improve our end-to-end, our indoor building.

When it comes to fiber, in our strategy, it's not just about fiberizing every site. Yes, of course, as we grow. Another element that we look at is the single hop to fiber. I think that's another important element that we need to look at because we do have short distance, high capacity microwave that's able to provide the backbone or the backhaul that we need. If we're looking at our fiberization, we have achieved more than 35% of our sites are actually fiberized with another 40-plus% with a single hop to fiber. In total, we're looking at about 75%-76% of our sites actually has a single hop, if not directly fiberized. That will be where we are in terms of fiberization.

The fact that we are now or will become or will be categorized as the fourth utility, that's very much welcome because that will help not just about the fiberization, but also the ease of us getting more sites and the right sites to get the best coverage. I hope that addressed your question.

Prem Jearajasingam
Analyst, Macquarie

Sure. Perfect. Thank you very much.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay. Thanks, Prem. I think we have one question coming through from Arthur from Citi.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Can you hear me?

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Yes.

Idham Nawawi
CEO, Celcom Axiata Berhad

Yes, Arthur.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

Okay. Yeah. Thanks. Sorry, just to clarify on the dividends, how do you think about near-term dividends? I know you have a MYR 0.20 target by 2024. I'm just wondering the decision to reduce the payout. Your free cash flow is higher, your gearing is lower. Why the move to a lower payout and DPS for this year?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

the dividend.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Well spotted, Arthur. Actually, in the actual, if you like, Axiata 5.0 strategy, there's a symbol which says greater than MYR 0.20 per share. My team just gets a bit challenged to put the symbol there. I continuously think that it is a function of our cash flow at company level, and that means streaming up dividends from the OpCos, number one. Number two, availability of distributable reserves at Axiata itself, the company. We are working with all those, if you like, constraints right now. We like to think that, if all goes as planned, we like to do more than MYR 0.20 per share. It's not really a function of The DPR is a guidance, yes. We like to put the targets on the dividend per share that we hope to reward shareholders.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Arthur, if I may add.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah, please.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

I think one of the reason, Arthur, why I showed that last slide in terms of how the cash gets generated, is to give a visibility of strong cash flow generation, which should, in a way, going forward, link up to the dividend. I think our challenge at the moment is a lot of cash gets locked in.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah

the countries because of either local regulations or restrictions on dividend payout.

That's it.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

I think we are trying to deal with those capital issues, which should, going forward, help us to accumulate that cash or the earnings coming through the form of reserves into the dividend-paying company to be able to give higher dividend.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

I think we are also cautious of the fact that there are still headwinds in some of the markets. You know what's happening in Malaysia, for example. JENDELA, we also have the merger potential coming up in Indonesia. We also want to be careful in terms of how do we position ourselves to meet these requirements going forward. I think as we go along during the year, we would be much more clear in terms of how we're going to be declaring dividend going forward. I think the traction or the direction is still being maintained to get to MYR 0.20 plus dividend by 2024.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

To Vivek Sood's point, yeah, as you would appreciate, in certain markets, classic one is Indonesia, for example. Dividends can only be paid out of the current year's profits, not out of retained earnings. Of course, you have withholding tax issues in certain jurisdictions. Still trying to figure how to extract, how to stream up the cash and dividends up to Axiata corporate center. The good news is we have already put in place financial guardrails, dividend payout ratios for each OpCo, capital structure boundaries, as it were. We want to avoid lazy balance sheets so that the companies can borrow. Of course, for each of these OpCos having to borrow, there are constraints also on the single customer limits, liquidity issue in those respective markets that we operate in.

A host of variables, if you like, that we need to look OpCo by OpCo so that we can optimize and stream out as much as possible in the years to come to pay a better dividend. Yeah. It's not a question of moving to a lower payout, Arthur, just to be clear.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

Understood. If I can just put in one M&A-related question. Given the 5G in Malaysia, do you think M&A is still possible within the space?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Do you think M&A is possible?

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

On the 5G.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

Is it desirable?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Is desirable?

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

5G.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Yeah. Very good question. Actually, until and unless we have better clarity on the construct of the SPV, the commercial terms of the SPV, it's debatable. Having said that, I personally think it still, what do I call it? Makes sense, yeah, for the industry to consolidate as well because notwithstanding the number of players. It's just that if the intention of the government is to create infra companies to provide wholesale network capacity, then MNOs become MVNOs. That's a different game altogether that the mobile operators need to figure out. Again, this is really going to be driven by the specifics, if you like, of the SPV that has been announced.

Arthur Pineda
Head of Asia Pacific Telecoms and Singapore Research, Citi

Okay. Thank you very much.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay. Thank you, Arthur. There doesn't seem to be any further question at this point in time. Perhaps, Dato', you have any closing remarks?

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Well, again, thank you for participating this afternoon. We like to think that the 2020 performance, the underlying performance, is credible under the circumstances. We continue to monitor the developments in the various markets so far as the regulatory challenges are concerned. Insofar as Malaysia is concerned, we are closely tracking the performance of the Celcom team. No pressure to Idham, Jennifer, and the rest, so that we can sustain the good results from the Q3 and Q4 in months and quarters and years to come. Thank you.

Clare Chin
Head of Investor Relations, Axiata Group Berhad

Okay. That concludes our call today. Thank you for your participation. You may leave the call now. Thank you.

Vivek Sood
CFO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thank you.

Dato Izzaddin
CEO, Axiata Group Berhad

Thanks, Idham. Thanks, Adlan, Jennifer. Thank you. Thank you all.

Adlan Tajudin
CEO, EDOTCO Group

Thank you.