Good day, everyone. Thank you all for joining this conference call. And now, we will begin the Conference of The Fiscal Year 2023, Third Quarter Earnings Results by Samsung Life Insurance. This conference will start with a short brief by Head of Finance and Accounting, followed by a Q&A session. If you have a question, please press star one, that is star and one on your phone during the Q&A. For cancellation, please press star two, that is star and two on your phone. Now, we shall commence the conference by Samsung Life Insurance.
Good morning. Thank you for taking the time to attend the 2023 Third Quarter Earnings Call for Samsung Life, despite your busy schedules. As per our prior notice, this conference call will be conducted as a Q&A session with key members of management this quarter. But please allow me to first briefly outline the key highlights for Q3 based on the materials we have provided to you in advance. Following IFRS 17 adoption, the business environment saw intensifying competition, notably for protection type new business. But nonetheless, we were able to achieve solid results through timely launch of new health products that were well aligned to customer needs and through our differentiated sales strategy between our exclusive or non-exclusive channels.
As a result, we were able to boost the share of high-margin health products to 40% of new business, achieving KRW 956 billion in new business CSM in the third quarter, with cumulative new business CSM now totaling KRW 2,772,000,000,000 between January up to September 2023. Thanks to strong ongoing sales performance and high quality new business, as well as further efficiency gains in our in-force book, as of the end of September, our CSM balance, which is the source of future insurance service profits, now stands at KRW 11.7 trillion, which is a KRW 1 trillion increase from the start of the year. With transition to IFRS 17, our reserve interest on fixed rate policies has become significantly reduced, whereas our investment yield has improved from rising market rates and diversification of invested assets.
As a result, we were able to achieve year-to-date net income of KRW 1,450,000,000,000 as of September. Building on our strong underlying fundamentals and solid capital position, which have become significantly improved under the new system, we intend to carry out our shareholder return expansion policies without setback. Meanwhile, as the representative insurer for Korea, even as we continue to enhance our competitiveness in our core insurance business, we'll also work to solidify the foundation for sustainable mid to long-term growth by advancing into new business areas, including global asset management and healthcare, all the while continuing to strengthen our commitment to ESG management. Please refer to the materials that we have made available to you in advance for further details on our performance.
Please be reminded that forward-looking statements or future outlooks that we mention in today's call may be subject to change, depending on changing economic and business conditions. Now then, we will continue with our Q&A with management.
Now, Q&A session will begin. Please press star one, star and one, if you have any questions. Questions will be taken according to the order you have pressed the number star one. For cancellation, please press star two, that is star and two on your phone.
...처음으로 질문해 주실 분은 JP 모건의 김영욱 님입니다.
The first question will be presented by Young Kim from JP Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
예, 안녕하십니까? 질문의 기회를 주셔서 감사드립니다. 그 좀 여쭤보고 싶은 부분들이, 몇 가지가 있어서, 하나씩 좀 여쭤보겠습니다. 첫 번째는, 이제 구도에서 처음에 이제 말씀해 주신 부분이 이제 그 주주에 대한 부분을 좀 말씀을 해주셨는데요. 지금 이제 사실은 이제 솔번시 비율도 뭐 백, 215%-220% 정도로 이제 사실 굉장히 좀 좋은 그런 그 포지션인 것 같습니다. 그래서 좀 궁금한 부분이 저희가 이제 올해 주주 환원에 대해서 좀 생각을 해보고, 또 내년을 생각을 해볼 때 저번에 이제 자사주 매입에 대해서도 좀 말씀을 해주시, 좀 고민해 볼 수 있다는 말씀을 해주시고 그랬는데, 어떠한 그런 어떻게 보면 주주 환원의 프로그램을 저희가 기대할 수 있을지 그 부분이 좀 궁금하고요. 그리고 이제 그런 관점에서, 이제 주주 관점에서 이제 프리서플러스를 회사에서 이제 그런 이 전체 자본에서 어느 정도로 좀 보고 계신지, 그 부분도 좀 궁금합니다.
그 두 번째로 여쭤보고 싶은 부분은 이제 성장에 대한 부분인데, 지금 이제 신기하게 올해 성장이 굉장히 많이 좋은 부분을 좀 보았는데, 이 부분 중에 이제 하나는 아무래도 이제 그 건강 쪽에 이제 믹스가 좀 많이 올라가서 이제 CSM 배수 측면에서 좀 많이 도움이 됐던 것 같습니다. 저희가 이제 2024년, 5년 이렇게 볼 때, 그 향후에 신기하게 그 성장을 어느 정도로 예상하는 게 좀 합리적인지, 그 부분을 좀 여쭤보고 싶습니다. 그리고 이제 마지막으로, 간단히 여쭤보고 싶은 부분은 지금 많은 아시아의 보험사들이 이제 그, 이제 나이가 많이 드신 분을 좀 대상으로 해가지고 이제 엘더리 케어 쪽의 비즈니스 모델을 많이 확대하는 것을 좀 볼 수 있었습니다. 이제 한국의 데모그래픽을 좀 생각을 해볼 때, 이런 비즈니스가 좀 합리적일 수도 있다라는 저는 개인적인 생각이 있는데, 회사에서는 혹시 이쪽으로 이제 비즈니스의 영역을 좀 확대하실 계획이 있으신지, 이렇게 여쭤보고 싶습니다. 감사합니다.
Yes, thank you for the opportunity to ask several questions, which I will now go through one by one. First of all, in the opening statement, I think you did mention the company's policies toward shareholders. I think your solvency ratio right now is standing in a good position between 215%-220% or so. So when you think about shareholder return policies for this year and into 2024, what kind of program do you think that we can actually look forward to? And last time you did mention that you may consider possible share buybacks. So could you comment on that line of thinking further? And what kind of free surplus is the company thinking of out of your total capital base? What is the level of free surplus?
Second question regarding growth. I think this year you have seen a very good growth in new business, driven in large part by your health related products, which have seemed to help in terms of your CSM multiple. When you think for 2024 and 2025, what kind of growth outlook do you think would be reasonable for new business? What should be our expectation? The third question is regarding elderly care. It seems that many Asian insurance companies are actually providing elderly care plans or policies targeted toward the elderly, and I would think that this may be a big reasonable solution or business model for Korea, also, considering our demographic profile. Do you also have plans at Samsung Life to expand into that kind of business?
안녕하십니까? 경영지원실을 맡고 있는 김선 부사장입니다. 처음 질문하신 이 자본 정책에 관련된 부분을 답변을 좀 드리도록 하겠습니다.
Yes, this is Kim Sun, the CFO. Let me take your first question regarding our capital management policies.
처음에 이제 그 솔벤시 K-ICS 220% 말씀을 하셨고, 그래서 이제 그럼 현재의 자본 건전성 수준이 말씀하신 대로 이제 초과 서플러스냐라는 부분에 대해서 먼저, 공감대를 갖고 시작을 해야 되는 부분이라고 생각해서 그 부분 먼저 말씀을 드릴게요.
So, you mentioned a solvency or K-ICS ratio of 220%, and whether this represents a excess surplus in terms of our capital position. So let me start there.
사실 숫자만 놓고 보면은 조금 높은 거 아니냐라는 이야기도 좀 이야기가 될 수도 있는 부분이라고 생각은 드는데요. 현재 저희가, 저희 회사가 목표를, 자본 적정성 수준을 최소 200, 그리고 현재 수준인 220 수준을 유지한다라는 목표를 갖고 있고, 최소한 180은, 커버를 해야 되겠다라는 식으로 소통을 드렸었습니다.
So in terms of our target capital adequacy level, we did communicate previously with you that we want to maintain at a bare minimum, at least 180%+. The goal is to maintain at least 200% or 220%, current like levels.
이렇게 다소 좀 높은 수준으로 지향을 하는 부분은 뭐 선진사 수준으로 가겠다라는 부분도 좀 있긴 하고요. 또 하나는 아직은 이제 금리가 지금 현재 한국의 금리가 높은 수준인데, 이 금리가 급격하게 하락을 했을 때 안정적인 수준이라고 장담하기 어려운 부분이 일단 하나가 있고, 또 하나의 요인은 이제 IFRS 17이 들어오면서 K-ICS에 대한 제도를 이제 세팅을 했는데, 그 부분이 규제에 따라서 다소 변동이 될 가능성이 아직은 남아 있다라는 부분 때문에 이 현재 120 정도의 목표 수준이 적정하다고 저희는 판단을 하고 있습니다.
So some may actually say or think that it is a little bit on the high side if you just look at the number only. However, we are actually targeting the current level because we aspire ultimately to increase the level to be commensurate with the level of leading insurance players. A lso although the interest rates right now in Korea is quite high, in the event that there may be an abrupt drop in the interest rates, in that case, it would be hard to say that a lower level could still be a stable level in terms of capital adequacy. A lso with the adoption of IFRS 17, the K-ICS regime actually has been newly set up, but this may be subject to change depending on changing regulations. With that possibility, we believe that our current level of 220% or so does represent an appropriate target.
저희가 지금 ALM도 지적을 하고 있고, 공동 재매입이라든가 향후 이제 계약 재매입 제도라든가, 이런 부분이 들어오게 되면 이러한 변동성에 대한 통제가 훨씬 강화가 될 거라고 예상이 되고요. 그렇게 되면 다소 목표를 하향 조정할 수 있는 부분, 여력이 생길 수가 있으리라고 생각이 돼서, 그때는 조금 더 전향적으로 자본 정책을 더 주주 친화적으로 하는 정책으로 선회될 수 있다고 판단을 하고 있습니다.
So we remain committed to ongoing ALM policies and in the future, there may be different initiatives, for example, repurchase of existing per policies, if that becomes available. So, overall, we think that there will be more stronger control against these types of volatility factors and at that point, then we may have more headroom or head space to consider lowering our capital adequacy target. A t that time, we would be in a better position to think more progressively about our capital management policy, to try to be as shareholder friendly as possible, even if by a smaller or even by a relatively small degree, we want to be progressive in our policies.
그리고 이제 자사주 매입이나 이제 이런 주주 환원 프로그램에 대한 말씀을 좀 드리면, 저희가 일단 생각하기에는 그 동일한 주주 환원 정책 중에서는 자사주 매입보다는 그 배당금 상향이 조금 더 효과적인 방법으로 일단 생각을 하고 있는 부분이 일차적으로 하나가 있고요.
So a correction from the translator. We want to be more shareholder friendly, even if it's small events, step- by- step. And regarding possible shareholder return program between share buybacks or other shareholder return policies, I think that other things being equal, increasing the dividend payout actually may be a more effective measure versus share buybacks.
이제 그런데 이제 내년쯤 되면, 그러면 이제 그 CSM에 대한 논란이나 K-ICS에 대한 불안정성 등이 좀 해소가 돼서 배당금을 조금 더 이제 상향할 수 있는 그런 여건이 형성이 될 텐데. 그래 됐는데, 이제 그 아직 이제 규제나 이런 부분 등이 남아 있기 때문에 그런 부분을 감안을 하면, 배당금과 자사주 등을 섞어서 환원 정책을 하는 것도, 좋은 저희가 주주들한테 드릴 수 있는 어떤 상황에 따라서는 대안이 될 수 있겠다라는 생각을 하고 있습니다.
Perhaps, next year, sometime next year or so, uncertainties regarding CSM or K-ICS may have become resolved, and at that point, we may have more leeway in terms of increasing our dividend payouts. But that being said, at present, there are many of these regulatory uncertainties that still remain outstanding. So in the meantime, I think that potentially a mix of different shareholder policies, including a payback or payout increase and share buyback, could offer, depending on the situation, a good alternative in terms of our shareholder return policies.
내년쯤 되면 저희가 조금 더, 이제 조금 더 선명하게 주주 환원에 대한 말씀을 좀 드리는 것이 가능해지리라고 생각을 하고, 그게 어떤 배당률에 대한, 중장기적인 어떤 스케줄, 지금은 바운더리로 사실 지금 말씀을 드리고 있지 않습니까? 그런데 이제 그런 부분들을 어떻게 상향해 나갈 건지에 대한 말씀을 드리고, 그 안에서 상황에 따라서 어떤 경우에는 배당, 어떤 경우에는 자사주, 이런 형태로 하는 방법에 대해서 저희 내부적으로 좀 검토를 충분히 해서 투자자분들과 소통을 할 수 있으리라 생각을 합니다. 이상입니다.
So I think, it may be sometime next year when we are able to be more clear in terms of our communication, with our shareholders regarding shareholder return policies. I think we should be able to provide greater clarity next year and right now, we are talking mostly, in terms of, boundaries or ranges, in terms of how further we can improve our, dividends in the mid- to long- term. But again, I think we can provide more clarity to you next time regarding dividend increase or share buyback, and we are right now in the process of, having those internal discussions on exactly, what we will, be looking to do. Yes, CPC Planning, Kim Jong-min.
Yes, this is Head of CPC Planning. Let me take your second question. So as you mentioned, after we had the short term whole life type product become a big issue. Since then, we have seen a lot of the insurance companies really shift more toward health related products, mainly because of the big difference in margin. Health related products have a much higher multiple at 26x versus just 13x for whole life, which is why we think that many companies are looking more at health products. So as you know, it is generally accepted that given the flat demographic trends and also sluggish economic conditions, it is not expected for the insurance market itself to grow in a big way.
However, given that, there is a recent increase in single person households, also per person, medical expenditure is also on the rise, which is why we think that as we focus on the health insurance space, this part of the market, will see a certain level of growth going forward. So of course, health insurance is a market, that is occupied by both life and non-life insurers alike. So when we talk about the health insurance market, it's a combination of both sides, and that is what we manage against. So in terms of numbers, this combined health insurance market was worth about KRW 72 billion as of 2020. This year, it has since grown to KRW 77 billion, and we expect it to grow further to about KRW 80 billion next year.
Lastly, again, because of rising per person medical expenditure, reimbursement costs, we do think that the health insurance market may grow at an annual rate of 3% to become a KRW 96 billion market by 2030. So we do see it as a viable market. Yes. Yes, let me take your third question regarding Senior Care. I'm in charge of company-wide planning. So there was already mention of demographics, but just to briefly outline again, we think that by 2024 there will be 10 million elderly persons in Korea above the age of 65.
There is growing life expectancy and longer periods where people have to live in ill health, also a rise in elderly single person households, which is why, on balance, we think that the senior care market has a strong growth potential.
... 예, 그리고 규제 상황도 간단히 언급을 드리면, 이 시니어 케어에 관련된 사업은 이제 범국가적인 문제이기 때문에 국가 차원의 개입 외에도 민간 기업의 참여가 이제 절실한 상황이라고 말씀드릴 수 있겠습니다.
Regarding the regulations for Senior Care, this actually is a nationwide national problem. It's a matter of national interest, which is why there has to be public sector intervention, but also engagement by the private sector companies as well.
예, 그래서 금융위 이 감독 당국에서도 보험사가 요양 서비스 진출에 활성화할 수 있는 어떤 제도, 이런 것들을 고민을 하고 있는 것으로 알고 있고, 이런 분위기에 편승해서 다수 보험사들도 시니어 케어 관련된 요양 사업을 적극 검토하고 있는 상황입니다.
So I understand that the regulatory authorities are actually contemplating some institutional support to encourage more private sector insurance companies to go into the long-term care or nursing care service market for seniors. So, riding this kind of trend, many insurance companies are looking at moving into potentially moving into senior care.
당사 역시 이제 보험 사업의 시니어 사업과 기본적으로 연계성을 갖고 있고, 그리고 해당 사업의 주 고객층이라고 할 수 있는 시니어 고객풀이 이미 확보가 되어 있다는 점, 이런 점들을 적극적으로 고려해서, 시니어 케어 시장에 대해서 지속적으로 모니터링하면서 사업을 검토할 그런 준비를 갖추고 있는 상태라고 말씀드릴 수 있겠습니다.
This applies to Samsung Life as well. We continue to monitor developments of the senior care market and are preparing to review the market further because we do believe there is a connection already between our Insurance business and the Senior Care business, and we already have secured the customer pool because many of our customers are already in the Senior Age segment. So we'll continue examining the potential.
예, 마지막으로 말씀드리면 저희 그룹 내에 노블카운티라는 요양시설을 갖고 있는데, 이런 노블카운티를 운영했던 경험, 이런 것들을 바탕으로 해서 타 보험사보다는 좀 더, 좀 더 면밀한 그런 사업성 검토가 가능할 것으로 판단하고 있습니다. 이상입니다.
Lastly, within our group, we have Noble County, which is a senior care facility that provides live-in support. So because we have that kind of experience, I think we will be in a better position to examine the business feasibility of senior care more closely and better compared to other insurance companies.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 대신증권의 박혜진 님입니다.
The following question will be presented by Hye-jin Park from Daishin Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
네, 안녕하세요. 저는 두 가지 질문드리겠습니다. 첫 번째는 심리학 관련인데, 그 건강보험 주력하신 대로 이제 볼륨은 많이 늘었는데 그 CSM 배수가 좀 떨어진 것 같습니다. 그래서 이 이유 설명 부탁드리고요. 두 번째는 CSM 가정조정액 관련해서 이번에 9,400억 원 가까이 반영이 됐는데, 이게 좀 VFA랑 RA 조정에 따른 그 반대 급부로 CSM이 감소한 것 같은데, 금액이 너무 커서 좀 설명 부탁드리겠습니다.
Yes, I would like to ask two questions. In terms of new business, as you focused on health-related products, it does seem you have grown in terms of volume of business, but the CSM multiple appears to have gone down a bit. So what is the reason behind that? And in terms of your CSM movement, it does seem that you did have a big drop from the CSM adjustments of KRW 0.9 billion, which is quite sizable, possibly from adjustments to your actuarial assumptions and maybe RA. So could you explain why there was this big CSM adjustment?
네, 안녕하십니까? 제리 팀장 변희차 상무입니다.
Yes, this is the Head of the Actuarial team.
예, 먼저 주신 질문 중에 두 번째, 그 가정 조정 관련해 가지고요. 설명을 드리도록 하겠습니다.
Let me take your second question regarding adjustments to some of our assumptions.
네, 먼저 그 3분기 당사 CSM 조정 금액이 약 KRW 900 billion으로 좀 이제 상당히 좀 크게 나왔는데요. 첫 번째 이유는 이제 3분기에 적용받은 이제 감독 기준의 가이드라인, 그 실손 산출 방식 변경에 따라서 약 KRW 540 billion 정도 CSM 조정이 있었습니다.
So in the third quarter, yes, there was quite a sizable adjustment to our CSM, about KRW 900 billion. So one of the reasons was because of the FSS guidelines, which led to a revision regarding some of our real loss indemnity health products, which led to a CSM adjustment of KRW 540 billion.
예, 그런데 이제 그 이번 근본 이제 실손 가이드라인 일회성 조치로 향후에 이제 CSM 조정 항목으로 나타나지는 않을 거고요. 나머지 이제 KRW 300 billion에 대해서 좀 설명을 드리겠습니다.
But this was a one-off measure, so no further adjustments will be required due to indemnity medical insurance. Let me explain the other remaining amount, KRW 300 billion.
기본적으로 회계연도 말이 아닌 분기 중에는 가정을 변경하지 않기 때문에 대부분의 분기에 나타나는 CSM 조정은 보유 계약의 차이나 아니면 투자의 실차, 아니면 약대 뭐 요런 어떤 실적의 영향을 받는다고 이해하시면 됩니다.
So other than end of the period in quarters, we do not make changes to the assumptions. So, anytime there is a CSM adjustment during a certain quarter, this is mostly due to changes in the difference between assumed and actual policy loan. Also, yes, differences in terms of our in-force contracts.
좀 그 구분해서 쉽게 설명을. 보유 계약 차를 말씀을 드리면요. 그 당사가 가지고 있는 보유 계약 중에는 장래 현금 흐름이 좋은 게 있고, 나쁜 게 있습니다.
So in terms of our in-force contracts, let me explain further. So some of those contracts have good future cash flow, others have less positive cash flow.
그런데 이제 현재 그 결산 단계에서의 과정은 뭐 이렇게 이제 그 두 가지 속성을 구분해서 명확하게 디테일하게 구분하지 않고, 좀 평균적으로 적용하는 부분이 있다 보니까, 그 현재 지금 판단하고 있는 거는 삼분기에 그 장내 현금 흐름이 안 좋은 계약들은 좀 해지나 사망 등의 탈퇴가 좀 덜 일어났고요. 반대로 이제 장내 현금 흐름이 좋은 계약들은 뭐 사망이라든지 해약이 조금 더 일어났다고 지금 분석을 하고 있습니다.
So, actually, those attributes are not, well, we do not actually apply granular distinction right now, depending on those two attributes. They are actually classified just at a high level. However, based on our own analysis, we have found that between the contracts that have good future cash flow versus those that do not, there has been a bit of a difference in terms of mortality and lapse rates. So it seems that mortality and lapse actually was a bit higher for the contracts with good future cash flow versus the contracts with less good cash flow.
당사의 경우 1분기보다 3분기에 이렇게 나타난 현상에 대해서 좀 디테일하게 점검을 하고 있고요. 보유 계약 관리라든지, 결국에는 이제 4분기의 가정 변경 등을 통해서 좀 그 적정 수준에서 그 분기별 CSM 조정 금액이 나타나도록 관리를 할 생각입니다. 이상입니다.
We are in the process of taking a more detailed look at exactly why the adjustment was more significant in the third quarter versus first or second quarter. We're considering possible adjustments to the assumptions for the fourth quarter, for example, so that we can actually manage the quarterly CSM and CSM adjustments in a smoother way.
예, CPC 팀 김종민 상무입니다. 신계약 CSM 건강에 대해서 말씀드리겠습니다.
Yes, this is our Head of CPC planning. Let me take your question regarding the new business CSM.
네, 그 자료를 잠깐 참고를 하실 때 6페이지하고 14페이지를 보시면 저희가 건강보험의 APE가 그 지난 분기 KRW 1,270억에서 KRW 1,730억으로 늘었습니다.
If you refer to Pages six and 14 of the slides, you'll note that actually the health product, APE, actually went up from KRW 127 billion in the previous quarter to KRW 173 billion.
예, 이로 인해서 CSM도 그 같은 자료 4페이지를 보시, 아까 6페이지를 보시면 KRW 2,910억에서 KRW 3,810억으로 대폭 증가를 했습니다.
As a consequence, you can see on Page six that the C... new business CSM actually changed significantly as well, from KRW 291 billion in Q2 to KRW 381 billion in the third quarter.
근데 말씀하신 대로 건강보험의 그 CSM 레이트이 1분기를 보시면, 그 200, 2,630%였는데요. 그 전분기에 2,740으로 조금 상승을 했다가 요번 분기에 2,640으로 100 퍼센트 포인트 정도 하락을 했습니다.
And as you can see on the same slide, in terms of our CSM multiple, it changed from about 2,630% in Q1, went up to 2,740% in Q2, before coming back down some to 2,640% in the third quarter.
저희 회사에서는 지금 100% 정도를 유의미하게 보고 있지는 않고요. 전분기, 전전분기 이제 단기납 종신 시장으로 좀 과열이 돼 있던 이 판매 패턴을 건강으로 돌리기 위해서 저희가 일부 현장에 영업자금을 쓴 부분이 이 CSM release를 내렸다고 보고 있습니다.
We do not look at that 100 percentage point difference as being meaningful. We do think that it may be the result of some operational costs that we incurred as we try to shift the sales pattern away from short-term whole life, which became overheated in Q1 and Q2, more to focus on the health policies in Q3.
마지막으로 말씀드리면, 사실 2,640%라는 수준은 저희가 상당히 아직까지도 높은 수준이라고 판단하고 있고요. 일부 선보사의 경우는 2,000% 언더로 잘 알고 있습니다. 그래서 조금 더 이 건강보험을 늘리기 위해서는 어쨌든 이런 그 수익성과 물량을 그 잘 포트폴리오 관리를 할 수 있게 그렇게 관리를 해서 더 확보할 수 있는, 건강보험을 확보할 수 있는 그런 전략을 피도록 하겠습니다.
We still think that the current multiple of 2,640% is still quite high. In fact, some non-life insurance companies have a multiple that's below 2,000%. Going forward, in order to boost health CSM, we will continue to manage our portfolio in terms of volume and also profitability, and continue to pursue our strategy of securing more health business.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 DB금융투자의 이병건 님입니다.
The following question will be presented by Byung-g un Lee from DB Financial Investment. Please go ahead with your question.
예, 안녕하십니까? 저 DB금융투자 이병건입니다. 계속해서 스테이블한 실적 내주셔서 감사드리고요. 두 가지만 좀 여쭙겠습니다. 하나는 아까 CSM 조정과 관련해서 말씀 주셨던 부분인데, 감독원 가이던스, 가이드라인 관련된 것이 이번에 어떻게 영향을 줬는지 좀 말씀을 해주셨으면 하고요. 실손보험과 관련된 것도 있었지만, 무저해지 관련된 부분도 있었고요. 동시에 우리는 CSM 상각률 및 RA 상각률 조정도 영향을 준 것으로 알고 있습니다. 그래서 이런 부분이 CSM에 어떻게 영향을 줬고, CSM 및 RA 이익에 어떤 영향을 줬는지도 좀 설명을 해주셨으면 합니다. 실제로 보시면 CSM이 많이 늘었는데도 불구하고 CSM 및 RA 상각 금액이 전분기 대비는 감소한 것으로 보이는데요. 이 부분이 아마도 감독원 가이드라인 적용 때문이 아닐까 해서요. 그래서 종합적으로, 감독원 가이드라인 적용에 대해서 좀 말씀을 해주셨으면 합니다. 두 번째는 전체적으로 회사가 계속 잘 관리해 주시고 무리하지 않고 가신다라는 거는 뭐 저희가 잘 보고 있는데요.
어쨌든 올해에는 그 작년에 이어서 저축성 보험에서 많은 만기 유출이 발생이 되고 있는 게 사실이고요. 일각에서는 해약이라고 합니다만, 뭐 일반적으로 만기가 많지 않을까라고 생각을 하고 있습니다. 그래서 올해의 저축성 쪽에서 만기 도래하는 금액과 비교했을 때, 내년도에는 혹시 이런 상황이 어떻게 될지? 그러니까 이제 만기 도래하는 금액이 저축성 쪽에서 올해 대비로 많이 감소할 수 있는지, 아니면 비슷한 추세로 갈 거라고 보시는지, 좀 언급해 주셨으면 합니다. 감사합니다.
Yes, this is Byung-g un Lee. I'd like to first thank you for continuing to deliver stable results, and I have two questions. First, you did mention the CSM adjustment, but I would like to know more in terms of how exactly the FSS guidelines impacted CSM. So you did mention the medical indemnity insurance, how there was a change there. But I think the guideline also covered or had some changes regarding the lapse rates. Also, the reversal of CSM and RA, the percentage may have been adjusted as well in the guidelines, which probably had an effect.
I'd like to hear exactly what that effect was to your CSM and RA, because, although CSM has grown significantly, the CSM amortization and RA reversal actually appears, quite down versus the second quarter, which I am thinking is, due to the guidelines. So if you could, overall provide, a breakdown about that impact. Second, I can see that you, the company, is managing very tightly, never, overstretching itself. If you look at the savings type products, there actually has been a lot of contracts that expired upon arriving at maturity, this year compared to last year. So some call this lapse, but I imagine more of that came from, existing contracts reaching maturity.
So if you look at the percentage of savings products that have reached maturity this year, how do you expect this trend to change next year? Will those types of contracts, do you think, be similar next year, or do you think that level will decrease next year?
네, 개리 팀장 변인철 상무입니다. 주신 질문 중에 첫 번째 부분에 대해서 답변드리겠습니다.
Okay, I will take the first question. I'm the Head of the Actuarial team.
먼저 이제 그 오월 달에 감독으로서 내려온 이제 그 가이드라인은 총 여섯 가지인데요. 그 종합적으로 설명을 부탁하셨기 때문에 제가 다 설명을 좀 드려보도록 하겠습니다.
In May, the FSS did provide a set of guidelines that covers six items. You did ask for comprehensive explanations, and I will take you through the items then.
기본적으로 당사는 그 감독 당국 가이드라인에 대해서 그 IFRS 회계처리를 적용을 하고 있기 때문에 여섯 가지 중에 네 가지는 이 분기에 선반영을 했고요. 지난번 그 소통 때도 말씀을 드렸는데, 다시 한번 설명을 드리겠습니다.
So, regarding the application of the guidelines, Samsung Life is adopting a proactive application method. So four out of the six items actually have been preemptively reflected as of the second quarter this year. So, in terms of what was already reflected in the second quarter, let me outline the four items. First, was for the low- to- zero lapse rate. Second, lapse rate for high yielding or high assumed rate contracts, VFA for variable annuity, and the adjustment to the CSM amortization rate. So in terms of the lapse rates, applied for our low to zero lapse products or for the high assumed rate products, we had already been applying levels that were consistent with the guidelines, so there was no impact.
For the variable annuity products, by shifting from the prior PL methodology to the VFA model, as we previously explained, we think that the impact in the given quarter was about KRW 2 billion. The adjustment to the CSM amortization rate, we explained previously that the adjustment for Samsung Life would be about 50 basis points, so that would take us to about mid- to high-10% amortization rate. In the third quarter, again, there was the standardization of the valuation methodology for real loss indemnity products, which led to a one-off adjustment of KRW 540 billion in the third quarter. But again, this is one-off. There will be no further CSM adjustments due to this factor. The last item regarding our reversal.
In the previous regulations, there were no clear standards in terms of reversal, and so different calculation methods were applied. But the guidance that we received from the FSS was to delay reversal as much as possible. So our reversal was about 19% in Q2, but as of the third quarter, it was lowered to about 11%. So, although applying the guidelines did lead to a partial decrease in our net profit in the third quarter, with the reversal already implemented, or once it is done, there will be no further CSM adjustments on the same account. And so overall there will be, or there is no big impact to our company value.
Yes, this is our Head of Management Support. Thank you for your good assessment of our management efforts today. I'd like to just share some comments about three things. First, the lapse trends that we have been observing, and then I would also outline how much financial type single payment products were sold, these are the savings type products that you asked about in 2012 and 2013, and what percentage have arrived at maturity? The third part will be how we're managing at the moment. So in terms of the lapse or the termination trends that we have been observing, well, as you may know, in the third quarter last year, the monthly lapse amount actually was about KRW 600 billion. Then in the fourth quarter, amid rising interest rates, it did climb to KRW 1.4 trillion. But since then it has stabilized.
As of the second quarter this year, it was back down to KRW 0.5 trillion, and as of the third quarter, the monthly lapse amount is back down to about KRW 600 billion. J ust to add, relative to the size of our underlying reserves, we did not observe any anomalies that was brought to our attention. U nlike the broad market, which is seeing an increase in lapse for protection type policies, we have not observed those kinds of trends at Samsung Life. T hen, you mentioned that the amount reaching maturity has increased. Well, for these types of single payment products, the financial type products, in 2012, we sold KRW 6 trillion. In 2013, we sold KRW 4.9 trillion worth of these products.
At the time, there were some restrictions or a cap placed on the tax exemption limits in terms of the tax incentives provided on these products. So these are products that were sold about 10 years ago or so and so, with the passage of time, 10+ years , they have now qualified for tax exemption benefits. Also, with rising rates both last year and this year, many of the contracts have, of course, reached maturity. The maturity amount actually was KRW 2.8 trillion last year, KRW 3.2 trillion this year. But fortunately, based on our expectations, we think the amount will reach or will have reached the peak this year and start gradually going down starting next year.
So the maturity amount, we think, will go down to KRW 2.2 trillion next year, KRW 1.8 trillion in 2025, and KRW 1.7 trillion in 2026, a gradual decrease. So in terms of our countermeasures or how we intend to manage the situation, I think ultimately it's very important to secure stable source of insurance income, because that is what is used to fund our investments, to deliver investment yield for us. So we'll make sure that sources of concern that may impact the Insurance business side will be addressed so that we can continue to secure good incoming flows.
We saw at the end of last year, amid an abrupt rise in interest rates, that we could use our exclusive channel and also the bank insurance channel to secure a good size amount of single payment type products, product sales. So we will continue to build out and manage our product portfolio strategically, among many means to secure further liquidity. We'll focus on the high margining health related products, also in the mid to longer term, to focus on expanding our savings and new tea portfolio as well, again, to secure a good base of incoming Insurance business.
The following question will be presented by Mingi Jeong from Samsung Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Yes, thank you for the opportunity to ask my question. Briefly, I would like to ask about your K-ICS ratio and interest rate sensitivity. So assuming that there is a drop in interest rates, what is the sensitivity to your K-ICS ratio? And second, I think starting next year, there are some changes that are expected in terms of the interest rate term structure. So UFR or liquidity premium and whatnot, there may be some changes to the term structure. So could you also share what the impact would be on your K-ICS ratio?
Okay, this is the Head of the RM team. Let me cover two or both of those questions. So in terms of the impact of lowering of interest rates on our K-ICS ratio, well, in terms of the volume of risk, particularly mass lapse risk, the interest rates applied, actually it varies from one company to the other. So depending on the interest rate that is applied and how much of an interest rate drop there is, 50 basis points or 100 basis points, the results again, will vary. So, in terms of what would happen if there was a 50 basis point drop in interest rates, so our K-ICS ratio that we shared today is current as of the end of the second quarter, when the market rate was 3.7%. So if there is a 50 basis drop, then our K-ICS ratio would go down by about 6-7 percentage points.
Then based on current, interest rates, which stand at 4%, if there was a 50 basis point drop in interest rates, there would be no impact to our K-ICS ratio. If there was a bigger 100 basis point drop in interest rates, our K-ICS ratio would go down by 9 percentage points. R egarding your second question, as you mentioned, in July, the authorities announced that they would be lowering the, discount rate that is applied in valuation of liability. So as you know, the authorities will be, increasing, well, will be allowing the UFR to be lowered, by a greater, amount, on an annual basis. The liquidity premium would be lower, and then the, the LLP or the last liquid point, would be extended from 20 years to 30 years.
So of the three items, the change to the UFR adjustment level and also LLP actually is not expected to have a big impact. Whereas, for us and all other insurance companies, I think the adjustment to or the lowering of the LP would be the one that has the biggest impact. So regulatory authorities do recognize that this may actually have a big impact, which is why they will not be asking the companies to apply it all at once, but have outlined a sequential adoption schedule up to the year 2027. However, I think we will be able to cover and make up for those adjustments every year with new APE or new business that we write.
So we expect our K-ICS ratio to be able to maintain the mid-220% level going forward. Just lastly, on a cumulative basis, we think that the lowering of the liquidity premium will have a cumulative effect of lowering our K-ICS ratio by 10 percentage points. But again, that will entirely be able to be covered by our new business.
The following question will be presented by Jaewoong Won from HSBC Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
CSM.
Yes. Thank you for achieving good results despite the difficult working environment. I have some questions regarding your new business CSM and also CSM adjustment. I think, earlier this year, you stated that you expect to be able to secure KRW 3.2 trillion in additional CSM on an annual basis for several years ahead. And so I think you are very likely to achieve good results this year, but what about next year? Do you think that that kind of guidance will be sufficiently achievable, or are there any changes to your plans? I'd like to hear about that.
Second, regarding CSM adjustments, it seems that, although the size of your indemnity insurance products actually is less versus the non-life insurance companies, the CSM adjustment due to the indemnity product, the valuation method, actually it seems quite significant at KRW 540 billion. So, when you compare the indemnity products provided by Samsung Life versus by non-life P&Cs, are there any differences in terms of, say, adjustments, or what kind of difference is there? And it seems that although your new business CSM was very strong, it's too bad that the CSM adjustment actually took away from that this year. But as you look out to the fourth quarter and next year, are there possible factors that may result in CSM adjustments that we should, you know, keep an eye out for?
Yeah, Gary. Okay, this is Head of the Actuary team again. Let me briefly answer the two questions. So in terms of new business CSM, we expect to achieve KRW 3.5 trillion this year, and then next year thereafter, consistently accumulate new business CSM of KRW 3 trillion or above. That is our target.
... 그 향후에도 그 당사는 그 말씀드린 신규 CSM 달성을 위해서요. 앞에 이제 그 기획팀장께서도 말씀을 해주셨지만, 이제 건강 상품의 어떤 확대라든지, 특히 이제 상품 수익성과 어떤 채널, 그다음에 시장 상황을 고려해서요, 그 최적의 판매 포트폴리오를 구성을 해서 지금 경영을 하고 있습니다. 따라서 KRW 3 trillion 이상은 지속 견지할 것으로 저는 판단을 하고 있습니다.
Our Head of Planning previously mentioned how we are expanding our health lineup, also managing an optimal product portfolio based on the margin profile of different products. We're also looking at the different channel strategy, reflecting market conditions. So on balance, we believe that we will be able to achieve consistently KRW 3 trillion or above new business CSM every year in order to be able to achieve our overall new business CSM targets.
그 다음에 두 번째, 그 실손 가이드라인 적용 관련해서 이제 손보사하고의 이제 비교 부분을 말씀을 해주셨는데요. 먼저 이제 말씀을 드리자면은 한 두, 세 가지 요인에 따라서 생보사와 그 손보사의 실손 가이드라인 영향을 직접 비교하기가 좀 쉽지 않다고 생각을 하고 있습니다.
Then, your second question regarding the indemnity products, how there may be a difference between life versus non-life insurance companies, particularly in terms of applying the FSS guidelines. Actually, there are two or three factors, that actually undermine direct comparability, between life versus non-life. It does not make for direct apples-to-apples comparison.
그게 이제 두, 세 가지 이유가 있는데요. 그 아직 확인된 건 아니지만, 제 생각을 좀 말씀을 드리도록 하겠습니다.
So these are two, three factors that have not been confirmed, but these are just my thoughts.
우선 이제 실손은 일 세대부터 사 세대까지 다양한 어떤 세대별 그 상품 구조를 가지고 있기 때문에, 생보사와 손보사가 어떤 상품의 보유 계약 포트폴리오를, 그다음에 어느 수준에서 갖고 있느냐에 따라 가지고 영향도가 달라질 것입니다.
So, there are different generations of indemnity type products from first generation up to now, fourth generation. So, it depends on the particular mix of products that a life or non-life insurance company may be holding. The extent of the products that will make a difference in terms of the impact.
그 다음에 이제 두 번째로는, 그 각 세대별 어떤 회사의 손해율, 그 다음에 그 기간까지 고려한 합산 손해율이 수준이 어떻게 세대별로 차이 나느냐에 따라서도 어떤 동일한 그 볼륨을 가지고 있더라도, 그 밸류에이션 결과가 좀 다르게 나타날 수 있기 때문에 생보사와 손보사를 직접 비교하는 거는 현재로서는 좀 어렵다고 생각을 하고 있습니다.
Then, the loss rates also will be different for every company, depending on the generation of product. Also, the combined loss rate that also incorporates the loading expense will also be different. So even if it's the same volume of product, the valuation results may vary, and this is again, another reason why direct comparison between life and non-life is actually challenging.
그다음에 CSM 조정 관련해서는 앞서도 말씀을 드렸지만, 그 분기 중에 발생할 수 있는 조정은 크게 두 가지입니다.
Regarding CSM adjustments, so there are basically two types of adjustments that can that can occur in or within a certain quarter.
첫 번째, 이제 제도 변화인데요. 올해 이제 감독당국의 가이드라인은 그 삼 분기까지 다 반영을 하도록 했기 때문에, 향후에 어떤 제도 변경에 따른 CSM 영향은 현재까지는 이제 없다고 생각을 하고 있고요.
So, the first reason for in quarter adjustment would be institutional change. So the regulatory authority guidelines, the instructions were to reflect all of the required changes by the third quarter this year, which has been done. So going forward, there will be no further adjustments to CSM due to institutional or regulatory change.
그리고 이제 그 기시 대비 기말 보유 계약 차이에 따라서 발생하는 CSM 조정 부분은 앞서 말씀드린 것처럼 좀 그 포트폴리오별, 연도별 보유 계약의 좀 미세 관리를 통해 가지고 적정 수준 이하에서 관리되, 관리되는 수준에서 시장과 소통하도록 관리하겠습니다. 이상입니다.
The second factor that may result in quarterly adjustments would be the difference in the in-force book, depending on the different time periods. We will do more micro very calibrated management of the different portfolio of in-book, or excuse me, in-force contracts by different underwriting years. We will prepare to communicate those results more with the market.
이것으로 질의응답 세션을 종료하겠습니다.
This concludes the Q&A session.
네, 이상으로 삼성생명 2023년도 3분기 실적 발표를 마치도록 하겠습니다. 추가 질문이 있으신 분들은 IR 파트로 연락 주시면 상세히 답변드리도록 하겠습니다. 감사합니다.
Thank you very much for joining us at the 2023 third quarter earnings call for Samsung Life. Please contact us at the IR team if you have any more questions. Thank you.