Good afternoon, everyone. This is Min Yong Kim, head of investor relations. Thank you all for joining us today for Samsung Life Insurance's 2022 first half earnings presentation. Today's call is scheduled for one hour, starting with the earnings presentation delivered by our CFO, Mr. Sun Kim, and followed by your questions, which will be addressed by the members of our management team present here today. Please note that the figures in this presentation may be revised during the auditing process, and any forward-looking statements, including the earnings outlook contained in today's conference call, are subject to change depending on both domestic and overseas market conditions and overall environment. Let me now hand over the presentation to our CFO, Mr. Sun Kim. Good morning.
This is the CFO, Mr. Sun Kim. Thank you to all our investors and analysts participating in today's earnings presentation. Let me now present you the main business results in the first half of 2022. The company underwent a tough business environment under globally increasing financial volatilities with worsening inflation due to the re-expansion of COVID-19 and supply chain disruption, and potential economic recessions caused by global policy rate hikes.
Despite such difficulties, the company laid solid earnings base that will show up in upward trend after transitioning into IFRS 17, with modest achievement in main business areas, including new business, insurance, profit and asset management. Value of new business, which is our future profit index, reached KRW 808 billion, increasing 11.1% compared to the first half of last year, thanks to the increased sales of high-margin protection products. Insurance profit recorded KRW 759 billion, increasing 18%, following improved efficiency such as persistency rate and loss rate.
Investment yield recorded as high as 3.4%, with rising new money yield, timely asset disposal, and well-balanced low-risk management. Capital adequacy is solid as well, with RBC ratio recording 249% as of June 2022, and K-ICS ratio estimated well above 200%. Let me explain the business results in detail. First is net profit. The first half net profit reached KRW 425 billion, and you can find the reasons in the graph on the right side. Both components of insurance profit, which is risk and loading margins, achieved modest results, increasing year-on-year. Investment profit, however, turned negative, with variable guarantee option P&L incurring KRW 500 billion loss due to high volatility in financial market.
The variable guarantee option P&L is calculated by evaluating the value of guarantee options provided for variable insurance products according to cost index and market interest rate at the end of every quarter under IFRS 4. The P&L is accounting figure not reflecting the company's true fundamental values. Most of the value accumulated under guarantee option reserves is expected to translate into capital upon transitioning into IFRS 17. The company already secured enough derivatives to hedge 100% of the position under IFRS 17, so the variable guarantee option-related volatility on our profit will decrease by a large extent after 2023. Excluding the variable guarantee option P&L, the investment profit in the first half recorded KRW 461 billion, increasing 32.9% year-on-year due to investment yield improvement. Next is insurance profit.
As you can find in the left graph, our insurance profit has been improving since second half of last year. Especially in the second quarter, insurance profit reached KRW 402 billion, increasing 53.2% year-on-year, with big growth in both risk and loading margins. Risk margin reached KRW 210 billion in the second quarter due to 5.7% increase in risk premium following high margin protection sales and persistency rate improvement, and loss ratio as low as 82% following decreased insurance payment with reduced claims for cataract surgeries. Although the medical usage, including health examination, is expected to increase in the second half, the company will take necessary efforts to improve loss ratio on a yearly basis by strengthening control on insurance fraud and false and over-diagnosis. Next is investment profit.
Investment profit recorded loss of KRW 39 billion in the first half. The main reason behind the loss is variable guarantee option loss of KRW 500 billion following financial market volatility, such as interest rate and stock index. Except the loss from variable guarantee options, both interest and dividend income increased year-on-year, while disposal gain recorded KRW 375 billion, thanks to timely sales. Such achievement is shown in our investment yield, which recorded 3.4%, increasing 50 basis points year-on-year. The variable guarantee options P&L for the second half is hard to predict due to its close linkage with financial market conditions. Assuming the current financial market condition persists, we expect it to improve by a larger number with discount rate effect shown in the fourth quarter.
As long-term interest rate is expected to persist at a high level globally, the company will strive to improve investment profit with certain interest. New business results. The company's protection new business volume decreased following industry-wide market contraction. As shown in the last graph, the company has been actively responding to such market changes by revising health and whole life products and launching new pre-condition products, which is shown in a rebound in protection new business APE since the second half of last year.
The value of new business for the first half reached KRW 808 billion, thanks to improvement in margin. For the second half of the year, the company will develop solid base to produce high quality CSM under IFRS 17 by timely launch of new products, resume to vitality in in-person sales, an active promotion of health asset campaign.
Next is persistency rate. Since 2019, the company operated company-wide persistency management system to screen high quality contracts and deter exit of in-force contracts. Thanks to such efforts, the 13th persistency rate for protection recorded 87.5% in the second quarter, which is the highest level since 2016. The 25th persistency rate also improved by large extent to reach 71.6%. Such high rate is outstanding among peers in life insurance. Since the persistency improvement affects the level and stability of insurance profit after IFRS 17 adoption in 2023, the company will strive to improve such efficiency measures going forward. Next is asset management. The company's invested asset recorded KRW 224 trillion as of June 2022.
Backed by outstanding financial stability, the company continues to expand investment in high margin assets, including infrastructure, real estate, and private equity, to mark the proportion of alternative assets within total assets above 15% by 2025. However, considering the recent abrupt changes in financial markets, such as interest rate hike and recession possibilities, the company has been taking more defensive approach in investment by reducing alternative investment plans and increasing low risk asset positions with strengthened risk management practices. At the same time, the long-term interest rate stays well above 3.1%, which is a discount rate applied upon this transitioning into the IFRS 17 as of 2021 year end. Accordingly, the company has been increasing the acquisition of ultra long-term assets for ALM matching, and the duration gap has been reducing faster than our initial plan.
The company holds KRW 113.5 trillion worth of bond, which comprising 51.4% of the company's total invested assets. The bond holdings show top-notch level quality. Most bond holdings are either government treasuries or government agency issued bonds. For corporate bonds holdings, most are above A grades. The loan assets amount to KRW 54.5 trillion, consisting evenly of corporate, household, and policy loans. 61.1% of all loan assets are backed by collaterals such as real estate or policy surrender values. The company recorded RBC ratio of 249% despite interest rate hike and Samsung Electronics share price drop in the second quarter. Compared to the first quarter, RBC improved by three basis points due to the reclassification of our bond holdings and regulatory easing.
Considering further interest rate increase in the remainder of the year, K-ICS is estimated to stay above 200% level. LAT surplus recorded KRW 40.8 trillion as of June 2022, increasing by KRW 22.1 trillion compared to the 2021 year end. The company expects to secure enough surplus for the adoption of IFRS 17. Next is the company's progress under the long-term strategy. First is healthcare service. Under our slogan of the long-term strategy, life financial planner beyond insurance, secure customers' future, financial future, the company launched the health asset campaign to secure customers' health, retirement, and asset management. As part of the campaign, the company discovers and invests in competitive healthcare startups and develops specialized services targeting seniors, females, and children and chronic disease care service for diabetes and high blood pressure.
In addition, the company launched the healthcare application, The Health, last April, which showed a rapid growth, attracting more than 110,000 subscribers as of early August. In terms of products, the company introduced health improvement insurance linked with smartwatch last April and has launched new products including childcare, annuity, cancer, and whole life, while providing daily healthcare service and innovative insurance products.
Next is our digital transformation. Digital transformation throughout the whole value chain of insurance is an ongoing issue in the first half of this year. In the latter half of the year, we plan to continue innovating our digital sales environment by providing mobile as well as tablet device sales process and improving our smart matching system using customer data analysis. The company introduced group purchase function linked with Samsung Card last May and launched gift function for mini insurance last July.
The company will continue to launch innovative products to secure 2,040 potential customers. Last is our customer focus management and ESG strategies. To establish a green and responsible investment system, the company maintains KRW 8.1 trillion worth of ESG invested assets as of June this year, and plans to increase KRW 1.5 trillion every year to reach KRW 20 trillion by 2030. Also, the company has been running symbiosis system to support child education and strengthen customer rights, and better communicate with various stakeholders. Such efforts are recognized by diverse domestic and global ratings institutions to achieve high grades for the company's ESG activities. This concludes our 2022 first half earnings presentation. Please refer to the accompanied materials for the detailed results.
As things get clearer regarding IFRS 17 and K-ICS, we will actively expand our communication with investors to clear uncertainties and enhance undervalued corporate value. Thank you again for all participating in our earnings presentation. We politely ask for your continued attention to Samsung Life. Thank you.
Now, Q&A session will begin. Please press star one, star and one if you have any questions. Questions will be taken according to the order you have pressed the number star one. For cancellation, please press star two, that is star and two on your phone. The first question will be provided by MW Kim from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead with your question.
I have two questions. First is regarding dividend. As the profit is going volatile, what would be your dividend guideline for 2022? Considering the past, for example, 2018, there was asset sales from Samsung Securities, Samsung Electronics shares, and there was disposal gain from that, and that was considered as core earnings and which was used for dividend to pay out the dividend over a course of two years twice. In the future, if there are any affiliated company asset sales, or if there are any big sales of assets, how would the dividend play out? Could you explain? My second question would be the overall protection type market seems not witnessing any growth.
What would be the protection market size growth for which you foresee for the future three-five years? Next year, if there is transition to IFRS 17, what would be the protection contribution to the reserve, CSM reserve? Also, could you explain the protection mid-market growth? Thank you.
네, 이제 CFO인 김선 부사장입니다. 먼저 배당에 관련된 질문에 대해서 답변드리도록 하겠습니다.
This is CFO Sun Kim. I would like to answer your question on the dividend first.
먼저 배당 가이던스가 시장에서 가장 궁금해 하시는 부분이실 텐데요. 사실은 저희가 확정적으로 조금 가이드를 미리 빨리 말씀드리지 못하는 이유가, 사실은 아시다시피 금융시장이 최근에 많이 변동을 하면서 손익 규모라든가 이런 부분에 대한 예측이 현실적으로는 굉장히 어렵다는 점 일단 하나가 있고, 그리고 내년에 IFRS 17이 들어오면서 여러 가지 환경의 변화가 생기다 보니 배당 정책에 대해서 좀 전체적으로 점검을 해볼 필요 부분이 있다라는 측면에서 사실은 아직 말씀을 제대로 드리지 못하고 있습니다.
I'm sure that you must be very curious about our dividend guideline, dividend guidance. There are reasons that we can't really say for sure because there are a lot of changes in the financial market, and it is very difficult to forecast and predict the P&L, how the P&L will play out. With the IFRS 17 introduction next year, there are possible environmental changes outlook, and there is a need to check the dividend policy.
일단 올해의 손익이 예를 들어 3분기 정도만 지나도 올해 전체적인 손익 규모에 대한 예측은 가능할 것으로 생각이 들고요. 그렇게 되면 시장과 조금 더 소통을 좀 해야 되지 않을까 생각이 들고, 현재 생각을 갖고 있고요. 다만 구체적인 숫자라든가 이런 부분은 아무래도 결산이라든가 이런 부분이 좀 되어야 정확하게 좀 설명을 드릴 수 있지 않을까 생각이 들고, 기본적인 원칙, 저희가 시장과 조금 더 소통을 하면서 투자자들의 이해에 맞게 조금 배당을 적극적으로 해나가겠다라는 기본적인 저희들의 현재까지 가져왔던 스탠스는 변함이 없음을 말씀을 드립니다.
This year, around third quarter, we'll be able to witness a forecast for the P&L, and then we'll be able to actively communicate with the market. Provided however, the numbers, the clear numbers would be able to explain when the closing or settlement is finalized. However, our basic principle is to proactively provide dividend and pay out the dividend and considering the understanding or the stance of the investors is solid.
두 번째 질문하신 게 전자 주식 같은 매각이 되면 향후에 어떻게 할 거냐라는 질문이신데, 이거 당연히 전자 때와 마찬가지로 저희가 갖고 있는 대부분의 자산은 고객의 맡겨주신 자산을 이용해 가지고 투자의 일환으로 이루어진 자산들입니다. 따라서 여기서 발생하는 매각은 당연히 배당의 재원으로 저희가 당연히 인식을 하고 있고, 다만 규모가 너무 지나치게 크거나 이렇게 했을 때 이거를 일시에 인식하지 못하고 분산해서 인식을 한다거나 하는 부분은 그때그때 고려하면 될 것 같습니다. 이상입니다.
As for the electronics equity sales, likewise, our asset sales or sales of other affiliated equities or equity shares, we consider it similar and important as the assets from the customers as well. As a result would be used as a source for dividend. However, if the source becomes too big and the asset sale size is too big, we can't recognize it at one time, but could be split and recognized separately. Thank you.
안녕하십니까? CPC 기획파트장 김규연입니다. 앞서 두 번째 질문이셨던 시장 전망에 관한 부분을 말씀드리겠습니다.
This is CPC planning part leader. I would like to touch upon the market forecast, which is your second question.
말씀드릴 사항은 시장 전망과 동시에 당사의 신규 판매 스탠스와 함께 말씀드릴 수 있도록 하겠습니다. 작년 COVID-19 확산, 규제 등 영향으로 큰 폭으로 하락한 생보 보장성 시장은 어려웠던 환경에 적응하면서 2022년, 금년은 소폭 성장한 540억 수준이 전망이 됩니다.
I would like to touch upon the market stance on the sales of new policies. Last year with a lot of regulation and COVID-19, the protection sales was sluggish. However, this year we expect to witness the sales of protection standing at KRW 54 billion.
이에 당사도 조직 기반 영업력 회복에 주력하면서 시장 MS 25% 수준을 견제하기 위한 보장성 신계약 월초 125억을 달성 추진 중에 있습니다.
As a result, to reinforce our sales forces, we, the market size would be 25% for the protection, and we expect to see MIP monthly premium at KRW 15 billion for us.
시장은 중단기적으로 약 3년에 걸쳐 2022년 5,400억 수준을 유지할 것으로 전망되면서 당사는 안정적인 시장 지배력 확보를 목표로 신계약 목표를 물량 계획을 수립 중에 있습니다.
For the midterm forecast over a course of three years, we expect the market size to be KRW 54 billion, and as a result, we would like to continue our new business accordingly.
Yeah.
This is actuarial team head. Regarding the adoption of IFRS 17, I would like to explain the CSM for the protection market. First of all, the interest is high. Amid the high interest market, the protection that we are selling is focused on high margin portfolio. Even if the forecast for the market is downsizing or downgrading of the protection sales, we expect to achieve good CSM for the new business. Thank you. Sorry. Excuse me. I would like to correct the protection size, not 15 trillion, but KRW 12.5 trillion. Now, once again, I would like to correct the protection size is not 15 trillion, but KRW 12.5 trillion. Thank you.
Also I have explained that in this year, in May, that with the transition to IFRS 17, the new business CSM would stand at KRW 3-3.5 trillion. This translates to if the volume decrease is about 10%, this would translate to a CSM reduction of 9%-10%. Thank you.
The following question will be presented by Seung-Gun Kang from KB Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
Yeah.
My question is, there was a special Samsung Electronics dividend in 2021. In 2022 you said there was asset sales and the gains were used to stabilize the profit as well as used for the source of dividend. There are growing concerns over the dividend because there are volatilities in the invariables guarantee profit. In the second half of this year, regarding the sales of asset sales gains, what would it be? How would it be used to, for the dividend and others? If you have any measures, please explain. In the press and in the media, there were reports on the REITs building sales. Could you elaborate on that as well? Thank you.
Secondly, regarding the IR, as of June first, there was KRW 38 trillion of bond sales and as a result, this is assumed to improve the RBC. However, this would also improve your capabilities for dividend payout ratio. If this is going to be used for that purpose, could you elaborate a little on that? Thank you.
This is management support team head. I would first like to explain on the profit stabilization measures for the second half of this year. Thank you. Yes. In the first half, the financial market volatilities were severe, and we had to recognize a loss for variable guarantees. As the CFO said, in the second half of this year, there are a lot of measures to stabilize the financials. Sorry, excuse me.
The financial market is expected to be stabilized in the second half, and we have set up and are enforcing various measures and plans to stabilize the yield for the insurance profit as well as our yield. The detailed numbers are not ready to share with you, but we expect our profit to stand at similar level or at a par against last year. Thank you.
This is asset management strategy team leader. I would like to explain on the REITs on the listed company sales. Thank you. In the midterm, for the midterm strategy for asset management, we are focusing on the asset management business, focusing on Samsung Asset Management as well as Samsung SRA based on our REITs. Recently, the REITs market is growing and based on our real estate holdings, we are preparing to get into this market, REITs market.
When REITs business is launched, we would like to continue our shareholdings or equity portion of the REITs business and operations so that we can maintain and persist our ownership. Regarding the target buildings or target property as well as pricing, discussions are going on, and we expect the listing or IPO to take place in the first half of 2023. Thank you.
This is RM team head. I would like to answer upon the reclassification of the bonds. In the beginning of June, with the bond reclassification, the available capital valuation loss was KRW 1.5 trillion, so which has defended the RBC drop by 10%. Regarding the size of drop, excuse me. This would have a similar impact on bond revaluation, reclassification would have a similar impact on the dividend.
We have defended the dividend reduction or dividend cut by KRW 1.5 trillion. You can interpret it as this. Unless the interest hike is as high as 4% or exceeding 4%, the impact on the dividend would not be much. Thank you. Excuse me, let me correct. The bond valuation loss is not KRW 1.5 trillion, but the bond valuation has been defended. Bond valuation loss has been defended by KRW 1.5 trillion. Thank you.
The following question will be presented by Byunggun Lee from DB Financial Investment. Please go ahead with your question.
안녕하세요. DB금융투자 이병건입니다. 설명 주셨던 것 중에 자산운용 관련해서 두 가지 좀 여쭤보려고 합니다. 첫 번째는 9페이지에 대체투자 자산 관련된 경우인데요. 보면 부동산을 국내 부동산에서는 10%포인트 감소, 해외 부동산에서는 11% 증가 목표를 잡으셨고요. 인프라 투자는 국내에서는 감소, 해외에서는 증가, 그렇게 해서 전체적으로 비중을 늘린다고 하셨는데요. 대체투자 자산 증가에 대해서 여쭤보면, 아까 상당 기간 장기채 금리가 높아진다라고 보셨는데, 그럼에도 불구하고 채권투자보다는 대체투자 비중을 이 정도로 늘려가는 게 낫다라고 보시는지에 대한 부분하고요. 구성비 변화에 있어서 결국 보면 국내를 줄이는 부분도 있고 해외를 크게 늘리는데, 사실 해외 대체투자라는 게 IFRS 17 환경에서 보면 실제 자산 부채의 ALM 매칭을 떠나서 실제 퍼펙트한 매칭이 가능하냐라는 문제하고 환위험 관련 문제가 그대로 노출이 되게 되는데, 이 부분에 대해서는 어떻게 보시는지, 대체투자의 매력 부분 그리고 환위험 관련 문제에 대해서 답변을 해주셨으면 합니다.
두 번째는 19페이지에 매각이익 추이에 관련된 부분인데요. 원화 채권은 102조에서 96조 원으로 감소가 된 걸로 지금 나오는데요. 이 부분이 단순히 금리 인상으로 인한 평가이익 변화 때문인지를 여쭤보고 싶고요. 채권수익률이 1분기에 2.9%, 2분기에 3.1%로 전년보다는 30bp 이상 높은데 이게 단순한 보유 이원의 문제인 거는 아닌 것 같고, 매각이익이 영향을 주지 않았는가라고 생각이 드는데요. 혹시나 2006년부터 처음 발행됐던, 그래서 2026년부터 만기 도래하는 20년 물에 듀레이션 관리 차원의 매각이 시작이 됐다라고 봐야 되는 건지라는 부분이고요. 저희가 채권을 볼 때 전체적으로 보면 계속해서 듀레이션 플레이가 나오면서 매각이익이 이렇게 많이 잡힐 수 있는지, 그래서 전체 매각이익에서 채권의 듀레이션 조정에 의한 부분이 어느 정도이고, 그 외의 매각이익은 어느 정도라고 저희가 이번에 봐야 되는지 좀 말씀을 해주셨으면 합니다.
Sorry. Excuse me. I would like to correct. It's not the dividend, gains. That's KRW 1.5 trillion, but it's dividend capabilities. Now let me explain the question. On page nine, the alternative investment in there is that local real estate investment would witness a 10%. The plan is to reduce 10%, 10% and overseas real estate investment to be increased by 11% and infrastructure investment domestically would drop as well as increased overseas. So overall the shares would of AI would increase. In the long term as the long-term bond interest rate is rising. Is this a better investment in AI increase than bonds? Considering that is my first question. Second, with the composition of the overall investment, the overseas investment is being increased focused on AI against local investment.
Under IFRS 17, is irrelevant of the perfect match between asset and liabilities matching ALM? That aside, wouldn't be the currency, foreign exchange currency risk an issue? Could you explain why the AI investment and overseas investment is attractive? Next, on page 19, regarding the sales gains trend, you mentioned that local, the Korean Won bond valuation has been dropped from KRW 1.2 trillion to KRW 96 trillion. Is this a simple valuation gain loss or reduction amid the rising interest rate trend? The bond yield has been 2.9% and 3.1% in Q1 this year. There has been a difference of 30 basis points. Is this just because of the yield, interest bearing yield, or is it anything to do with the sales gains?
It seems like to me from 2006, the 20-year bond maturing in 2026 is being managed and handled. Could you explain on that as well if are there any policies or any plans to manage the maturing bonds? It seems like on the bonds there is the duration play or duration management with the sales gains. Are there any risks in terms of adjustment? Thank you.
전략팀장 최창희 상무입니다. 질문하신 거에 대해서 말씀드리도록 하겠습니다.
This is asset management team head. Let me explain your question. Thank you.
첫 번째 질문은 최근에 초장기채 금리가 높아졌는데도 대체 투자를 계속해서 늘려갈 거냐라는 질문이셨습니다.
The first question was, with the interest rate hike of the super long-term bonds, are we going to increase investment in AI?
아까 CFO께서 서두에서 말씀드린 것과 같이, 질문자께서 말씀하신 것처럼 최근에 초장기채 금리가 많이 높아져 있는 상태라 현재 올해는 장기채 중심으로 포트폴리오를 구성하고 있습니다. 즉, 대체 투자를 늘려가겠다라는 것은 중장기적인 방향성에 맞춰서 하고는 있지만 현재 시황 상황에 따라서 금리 레벨에 따라서 현재 탄력적으로 조정하고 있다 이렇게 말씀드릴 수 있을 것 같습니다.
As the CFO mentioned previously, the interest rate amid the super long, super high long-term interest rate for the bonds. This is where the long-term bonds focus. Is it? However, we are focusing on long-term bonds. However, our investment, increasing our investment is for the mid- to long-term, and we have a stance to flexibly manage depending on how the interest rate plays out.
Let me clarify. As you correctly mentioned that the long-term interest rates are increasing these days. Accordingly, we will increase our investment in the bonds. What we mentioned about increasing our alternative assets is our long-term asset management plan. According to the recent changes, we have been revising our asset management plans by increasing bond holdings.
연이어서 대체 투자 관련해서 해외 쪽으로 exposure를 늘리는 거에 대한 질문을 하셨는데요. 아시다시피 대체 투자 시장 자체가 국내는 굉장히 협소한 상황입니다. 따라서 대체 투자를 분산의 효과라든가 수익률을 위해서는 해외를 투자할 수밖에 없다는 거 먼저 말씀을 드리고요.
Regarding AI investment, the question was focused on whether we are going to increase our exposure, overseas exposure. As we are aware, AI market locally is very small. For diversification or profit, to diversify our profit, we need to turn our eyes to overseas market.
해외를 확대함에 있어서 환 위험에 대한 관리나 리스크를 말씀을 해주셨는데요. 저희는 현재 스탠스가 100% 환헤지를 원칙으로 하고 있고, 최대 5년을 환헤지 하에 roll over 헤지를 통해 가지고, 만기별 roll over 만기별로 분산해서 현재 관리를 하고 있는 상태입니다.
Regarding expanding our overseas investment in AI. The question was on whether we are exposed to the exchange risk. However, we are 100% hedged with a maximum term of five years and depending on the maturity, the ones that are mature are rolled over. Thank you.
네, 마지막 질문은 아마 채권 쪽에 보유하고 있는 채권을 포트폴리오 리밸런싱을 하면서 매각 채권에 대한 매각익을 내면서 채권을 운영하지 않고 있냐라는 질문으로 이해를 했습니다.
Your last question was, my understanding of your last question is regarding the bonds management, whether we are rebalancing and selling some of our portfolios.
발표드린 바와 같이 매각이익이 올해 상반기에 한 3,700억인데, 그중에서 채권에서 차지하고 있는 매각익은 현재 600억 정도로 굉장히 미미한 상태로, 당사는 채권 매각을 통한 매각익을 현재 매각익 재원으로 활용하고 있지는 않습니다.
Regarding the sales gains, it was KRW 370 billion, out of which bond sales accounted for a very small portion of KRW 60 billion. In sales gains, this bond sales gains does not account for big. Thank you.
말씀드린 이 채권 매각인 600억 또한, 올해 중에 만기 도래하는 채권들을, 아시다시피 10월이나 9월에 일괄적으로 만기가 도래를 합니다. 이거를 연중의 만기 분산 차원에서 상반기에 잔존 만기 3개월이나 9개월 남은 채권들을 일부 리밸런싱을 하면서 생긴 매각익이라고 말씀드릴 수 있습니다. 이상입니다.
Also for the bond sales gains, which I mentioned that it's KRW 60 billion. This year the maturing, the maturity of the bonds would fall all in between September to October. For the bonds which have a remaining term for maturity, which is like three-nine months in the first half of this year to diversify the maturity we were rebalancing such bonds. Thank you.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 NH투자증권의 정준섭 님입니다. The following question will be provided by Jun-Sup Jung from NH Investment & Securities. Please go ahead with your question.
안녕하십니까? NH투자증권 정준섭입니다. 질문 기회 주셔서 감사드리고요. 저는 변액보험 관련해서 질문드리고 싶습니다. 이 분기 물론 시장 상황이 좀 녹록지 않았던 건 사실이지만, 그래도 이 분기에 발생했던 변액보험 손실 규모가 시장 상황 대비 비교해서도 그렇고, 경쟁사와 비교해도 좀 손실 규모가 좀 컸던 것 같습니다. 이유가 어떤 건지 좀 상세하게 설명 부탁드리겠습니다.
My question is on the variable guarantee. Of course, the market wasn't very good for the second quarter of this year, but the variable gains loss seems like a little bit bigger than the competitors as well as market size. Why is it so? Please explain.
Yeah. This is, actuarial team head. I would like to explain the variable gains loss. Thank you. The variable gains loss in the first half was KRW 500 billion. This could be split into Q1 KRW 170 billion, and for Q2, the expected number would be KRW 330 billion. In determining the variable guarantee profit as the FSS or the regulatory bodies, discount rate gets determined at the end of September, and other actuarial assumptions are finalized at the end of September.
The first half or Q1Q2 variable gains losses would be determined by the financial market. Out of which the reasons, the financial market volatility reasons, the stock price at the end of 2021 was 3,000, the KOSPI, which fell to about 2,300. KTB five-year bonds rate as of end of year 2021 was 2%, however, it jumped to 3.65% or 165 basis points increased. As a result, the variable gains fund reserve was dropped and which is attributable for most of the KRW 500 billion losses. Considering the annual forecast against end of June, the stock market or the equity price is expected to go up by 100 points.
As the CFO mentioned at the beginning of the presentation, our efforts to improve efficiency in the management as well as would contribute positively on the actuarial assumption. We expect some improvement for the second half of the year. However, we'd be able to inform you the clearer, more concrete result after September. Thank you. Also, to respond to your question on why our variable gains loss is bigger than our competitors. Regarding our variable guarantee reserve, we have a big portion of whole life products. However, our competitors hedged. Their hedging position started a little later, and also they focused on the annuity product, annuity variable guarantee, which has bigger impact. That is why. Thank you.
The following question will be presented by Sinyoung Park from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead with your question.
Regarding, I have two questions. Regarding the yield spread, recently the funding cost has increased significantly. However, it seems to be controlled by having a fixed interest rate. Focusing on fixed interest rate, is it why? Why is it so? Or are there any other factors contributing to it? My second question is regarding the risk margin. We have witnessed that the non-life insurers or the general insurers, their numbers have gotten stable down owing to their controls on the claims, and as a result, their long-term risk loss rate has stabilized as well. Of course, life insurance companies are a little different in terms of coverage, and however, it has been improved by 82%. Would ours be maintained at mid 80% level or any possibilities of going down further?
I have two questions. Regarding the yield spread, recently the funding cost has increased significantly. However, it seems to be controlled by having a fixed interest rate. Focusing on fixed interest rate, is it why? Why is it so? Or are there any other factors contributing to it? My second question is regarding the risk margin. We have witnessed that the non-life insurers or the general insurers, their numbers have get stable down owing to their controls on the claims, and as a result, their long-term risk loss rate has stabilized as well. Of course, life insurance companies are a little different in terms of coverage, and however, it has been improved by 82%. Would ours be maintained at mid 80% level or any possibilities of going down further?
Regarding your question on the interest, the increasing rate owing to the asset variation or asset duration, it takes time to be reflected on the risk holdings or risk for our books. Regarding our interest on the reserve or reserve interest rate, the fixed interest rate would not be as sensitive, but the variable interest would be more sensitive. In our portfolio, our variable interest portion accounts for 60%, so you can interpret it as we are 60% affected by fluctuations in the interest rates. For the yield and interest earning assets, so far, the yield on the maturing bonds has been higher than the new investment yield on interest earning assets.
Starting from the first half of this year, the yield on the maturing bonds are about to be similar to the new investment yield. For the second half of the year, we will start to see that the new money yield will be higher than the yield on the maturing assets. For the liability side, the reinvestment rate on the reserve is reflected by the changes in the crediting rate. It is gradually but surely increasing over time. In all, internally we see the decrease in the widening of negative yield already in the first half, but it will be surely more evident in the second half going forward.
Now, I would like to answer upon the loss rate forecast regarding the risk margin.
백내장이나 이런 과잉 진료로 인해서 보험금이 증가하면서 마이너스 효과가 발생해서 저희가 가이드 드린 정도, 85% 정도의 손해율이 난 시기입니다.
By quarter in Q1, the medical impact was lower, which had a plus impact on the risk margin. However, the excessive medical services including cataracts had a negative impact owing to the claims payment. It is at par with the guidance level of 85% loss.
2분기는 코로나로 인한 플러스 효과는 그대로 지속되는 상황에서 백내장 등으로 인한 과잉 진료에 따른 마이너스 효과가 사라지면서 이게 82% 정도의 손해율로 개선된 수치가 나온 시기입니다.
In second quarter, the plus impact or the positive impact from COVID-19 continues. Together with that, the negative impact from excessive medical services owing to cataracts have disappeared. This has contributed to about 82% losses, loss rate or improved impact.
코로나로 인한 플러스 효과가 언제까지 어느 정도로 지속될지를 예측하기가 굉장히 어려운 상황이라, 하반기에 손해율을 정확하게 말씀드리기는 애매하지만, 어쨌든 코로나의 영향이 많이 줄어든다. 코로나가 정상화되면서 의료 이용이 정상화된다고 가정을 하더라도 하반기에 저희가 말씀드린 80% 중반 이상, 중반을 초과하는 손해율은 나타나지 않을 것으로 예상이 되고요. 그러면 연간으로 따지더라도 85%보다는 1, 2% 낮은 수준 정도로 가지 않을까 하는 기대를 갖고 있습니다. 이상입니다.
We don't know until when or to how much the COVID-19 plus effect or positive impact will continue. It is difficult to predict the loss rate under this situation, or considering the impact of COVID-19. However, even if the medical service use becomes normalized in the second half, the loss rate would not exceed mid-80%. If we translate it to annual loss rate, it would be like 1%-2% under 85%. Thank you.
다음으로 질문해 주실 분은 씨티증권의 야페이 티안 님입니다. The following question will be presented by Yafei Tian from Citigroup. Please go ahead with your question.
Thank you for taking my questions. I have a couple of follow-ups. The first on dividend. Just looking at consensus estimates for dividend DPS for 2023, it looks like market is still broadly expecting DPS to be up in 2022 as well as, you know, quite higher in 2023. Given the uncertainties in the P&L line and potentially this year, net profit will be lower than last year. Can we still assume that management would be able to recognize disposal gains as well as increased payout ratio to support at least a flat or even better increasing dividend? Secondly, to follow up on that disposal gain. You mentioned that most of it is actually not from bond-related sales.
Just wanted to have a little bit more color, what kind of assets or disposal that contributed to that disposal gains? Looking into second half of the year, you know, how much additional disposal gains there could be to offset any market volatility? Thank you.
씨티증권의 Yafei Tian입니다. 질문 두 가지 드리겠습니다. 첫 번째는 배당에 관한 것인데 현재 마켓에 나와 있는 2022년도 배당에 대한 추정치가 제 관점에서는 좀 높다고 판단이 됩니다. 현재까지 나온 상반기 순이익 등을 고려했을 때 작년에 비해서 감익이 불가피할 것으로 보이고, 변동성도 굉장히 큰 상황인데 2022년도 배당에 대한 배당 성향을 여전히 높일 수 있을지, 그리고 DPS 관점에서는 전년비 어떤 수준이 될지에 대해서 안내를 부탁드립니다. 두 번째로는, 상반기에 꽤 큰 수준의 매각이익을 낸 것으로 되어 있는데, 어떤 자산 클래스에서 매각이익을 낸 것인지 좀 더 구체적으로 안내해 주시면 감사하겠습니다.
네, CFO입니다. 배당에 관련된 질문 답변드리겠습니다.
This is CFO. I would like to answer your question on the dividend.
아까도 한번 설명을 드렸는데, 사실 여러 가지 변수가 많아서 아직 배당에 대해서 확실한 답변을 드리지 못한 부분에 대해서는 죄송스럽게 생각을 합니다.
Because there are a lot of variances or various reasons which are uncertain in the market. I would first like to apologize that we can't offer you a clear answer on the dividend.
상반기 순이익은 보증 순이익 등으로 인해서 조금 적어져서, 연간 순이익이 걱정을 더 많이 하시는 부분이 있는데, 사실은 지금까지 설명드린 바와 같이 여러 가지 회사에서 이 부분을 제고하기 위한 대책을 추진하고 있습니다. 지금 저희 계획대로, 그리고 금융환경이 받쳐준다면, 연간 순이익도 어느 정도 만회를, 전년 수준 가까이 만회를 할 수 있지 않을까 기대를 하고 있습니다.
We understand that there's a lot of worries in the market about the annual earnings for this year because of big loss from variable guarantee options that happened during the first half. We estimate that at least there's a higher volatility in the financial market and with some internal hedges to manage the level of stable annual earnings. We think that by the end of the year, we will maintain some level of annual earnings by the end of the year. So long as more uncertainties won't play out, we think that in terms of DPS, we can meet the market's eye level somewhat by the end of the year.
Please understand that for the accurate numbers, it is hard for us to provide at this point because of still remaining uncertainties about the annual profits.
This is asset management leader. I would like to explain on the sales gain. For the total of first half, the sales gain recorded is KRW 370 billion, out of which bond is for the maturity diversification as well as replacing the long and short-term bond maturity. The remaining KRW 300 billion-KRW 330 billion comes from the sales gain of equity or stock. For your information, for the first half of this year, sales gains from real estate did not take place. Please be reminded of that. Thank you.
Thank you very much. I just wanted to double-check 'cause I didn't catch it clearly on that DPS guidance. Did you say that you can maintain broadly at where the consensus is?
Oh, sorry, Yafei, but can you repeat your question?
Yeah. The question, I didn't quite catch clearly the CFO's guidance on DPS. Did he say that the DPS can be maintained at around the market expectation level? For this year, I'm just looking at consensus, it's about KRW 4,000 level.
What I said is that we will take efforts to meet the market's eye level, not that we will meet the market's eye level. Please don't be confused with that. Please understand our position that because of high market volatilities and still remaining uncertainties of our annual profit, it is hard for us to give you accurate numbers of our DPS at this point.
Thank you. Appreciate it.
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