Welcome everybody to Admiral half Year results 2021. Unfortunately, we are virtual again. I am Milena Mondini de Focatiis. I will start today with a reminder of our strategy, which remains unchanged, and some reflection on our strong first half results. I am here today with Geraint Jones, Group CFO, who will talk to us about the financial results. Cristina Nestares, CEO of UK Insurance , will give us more detail on how UK business was the key driver of this outcome. Costantino Moretti, Head of International, will talk about the continued evolution of our overseas business. I will come back to share with you how our loans business is back to growth, anchored on solid foundations, and conclude with our ambition for the longer term sustainability of our business and the larger community.
The key messages from us today are another set of strong results, with profit up 76%, driven by a combination of high reserve releases on the back years with higher level of profit commissions and low claims frequency as people drove less for COVID restrictions. We will issue a record dividend of GBP 1.61 per share. That includes a first part of Penguin Portals sales proceeds. We are very pleased with this performance, there are some exceptional elements in it, we don't expect replicated in the second half. While operating in very competitive market, we also deliver double-digit growth in our customer base, both in U.K. and overseas. We made further progress against our strategy. We continue to strengthen our competence and infrastructure around data technology and improve customer experience. We made further progress and further steps in product diversification.
More in general, despite the change and COVID disruption, we remain very Admiral, focused on strong execution, on data, and on customers. The strategy we presented in March remains unchanged. In a world of fast acceleration, more demanding customers, new possibility unlocked by advanced data and technology, our aim is to build on our strengths and on our relationship with customers to further diversify our product offering while delivering on customer expectations faster. You will hear more about progress in this area later today and at year end. When there is a disruption to the business, as in recent months, each strategy is important, but not as much as good execution. What really matters are the tactics and how you navigate through the discontinuities.
We'll take few minutes today to mention a few example of good rational execution, both in bringing forward some of our strategic priorities, but also running the business as usual. Possibly the most notable example is how we navigated the cycle. As Cristina will show you later, we decreased price ahead of the market, reflect lower frequency, once again, increased price ahead of the market as claims started to inflate. This helped us to deliver good growth and protect margin when it was more rational to do so. This underwriting agility has been very typical of Admiral insurance in the past, and it was good to see a similar story in loans where we were faster than other in reacting to the pandemic with granular adjustments both in our footprint and in our underwriting processes.
This resulted in some of the best loss outcome in the market. Risk selection remains our obsession, and similarly, the mindset was transferring loans as well, where we are adopting open banking data to improve underwriting and assess better customer for affordability. That is another win-win for the customer and for us. We're also very conscious of the necessity to continue to improve operational efficiency and increase speed of service. We make progress, for example, by tripling total loss claims settled online, almost halving the time to settle those, and decreasing the variable cost of customer service, mainly through enhanced digital functionalities. It's also rewarding to see how some of the new best practices are now being piloted in our overseas business.
For example, scale agile in Italy, where we double the number of features released and reduced by more than 40% backlog release and days of cycle time. Moving beyond existing business in Admiral Pioneer, our new venture arm, we launched the first two pilot venture in less than six months each. One is Toolbox, providing coverage for tools for small business in the U.K., this is a small first step in the micro-SME space where we see some potential for better servicing the customer. The other one is Koalys, small fleet insurance business in France. Interesting as it's focused mainly on small, smart, and green in the future rental fleets. They are both small trials, not expecting to make any different to our results this year, not in the next two or three.
Why I'm referring them here, both as they could make a difference in the longer-term, but more importantly, as they helped us to test the waters for Admiral Pioneer and somehow get comfort on our ability to launch new business in such a short time. Solid execution and responsiveness to market conditions are two long-lasting features of Admiral history, and they will continue to be particularly relevant in the current and next future context. We are all keen to go back to normality, but unfortunately, we are not there yet. There are still relevant changes in our way, starting with long tail of COVID that continue to surprise us with further waves and make our job, that is predicting risk, as difficult as ever.
The FCA pricing reform that will force a strong rebalance between new business and renewal prices, inevitably will cause some price shocks and dislocation of portfolios. We are prepared for this change, Cristina will talk more about this later. Overall, this will require from the market a mix of underwriting discipline, ability to read context and consumer reaction very fast, and more complex rating. Another element that the market will need to manage will be the evolution in the way we work, how we embed hybrid working, but also agile practices and new operating models. To adapt effectively to this change, I believe that a strong underlying culture and corporate identity are key assets. At the core of our execution is not two or three superstar tracking better or faster decisions. It's our people and our culture. Our culture remains strong.
We are among the best places to work worldwide. It's fun, a bit addictive, with engagement score very high, and our staff really feel looked after. It is as simple as that. People like to work in Admiral, and that's why they give their best. We aim for this to be true for everybody, no one excluded. When people talk about diversity and inclusion, there is a lot of focus on representation of diversity. For us, historically, it has been entirely on inclusion. Inclusion naturally resulted in diversity. When I joined Admiral, Cristina and myself were two out of four international CEOs, and 3 of us were women. This was 15 years ago. Now we have a 50/50 gender balance in the executive committee and in the group board. We don't rest on our laurels.
We're very conscious we continue to evolve, and we've been very focused on increasing talent in some critical areas. We also decide to fully embrace smart working. Admiral staff will have the choice to work from home part of their time, and when in the office, they will find a space that will be redesigned to foster more collaboration and innovation. As at the end, going through the transformation, the glue that keeps everything together is the team spirit and the willingness to work together. With that, let me hand over my teammate, our CFO, Geraint Jones.
Thanks, Milena. Hello, everyone. I'm going to talk about some of the main features from a very positive first half and look at how the top line has grown, what's contributed to the significant increase in profit, and to finish, I'll go through the solvency position and cover the interim dividend or dividends. To start with, the highlights, with plenty of green on show here. Profit and earnings per share were both up very strongly. The pre-tax result was up by three quarters and was in the middle of the range we pre-announced a few weeks back. Earnings per share was up by two-thirds. Very decent top-line figures for the first half. Notably, double-digit growth in customers to move past the 8 million mark. Solvency ratio remains healthy, and inevitably, with such an increase in profit, return on equity for the half was very strong, nearly 70%.
There's a big increase in the interim dividend, we've confirmed the plan for the proceeds from the comparison disposal. Let's get into some of the details, starting with revenue and customer numbers. A pretty pleasing set of figures here. Each of our segments has grown in the first half of 2021. The UK Motor business grew customer numbers by a very healthy 12%, over half a million new vehicles added over 12 months. Good retention throughout that period and a very strong H2 last year were key factors. Turnover in the comparative period was impacted by the GBP 100 million rebate, the 9% growth reported here is somewhat flattered. Continued good momentum in UK Household, 15% more customers and turnover up to 20%. Our international insurers grew their customer numbers by 14%.
There was some currency movement and pressure on average premium spent, turnover growth was a bit lower. L'Olivier in France continues to grow particularly strongly. Customers from the non-UK motor businesses now account for 40% of the group's total, that measure continues to increase despite the continued strong growth in the UK Motor business. Although the loans business is showing balances down year-on-year, as we'll see later, since we restarted writing loans in H2 last year, the business has grown quite nicely. All in all, happy with the H1 top-line figures. Let's start to look now into the big profit increase, this slide shows the group income statements H1 versus H1. As you see, the UK business was the main driver of the change.
That U.K. result was up by GBP 230 million with a strong increase in UK Household profit, driven by higher premiums and a better combined ratio, but particularly a very large increase in UK Motor profit, which I'll give a bit more detail on shortly. Our international insurers were basically at break even in the first half. A slightly worse results compared to last year. The loss ratio in the comparative period being more positively impacted by COVID. European insurers reported a lower profit, partly on the back of investments in growth, whilst the loss in the U.S. was broadly flat. On the loans front, a big drop in the credit loss provision charge led to an improved result this half year on half year. That provision, though, remained prudent.
In the other items, an increased share scheme charge was one of the big drivers, and there were also some non-recurring costs for some of the regulatory projects and other matters. Clearly, the big story here is the UK Motor results, so let's talk a bit more about that. This slide shows the UK Motor income statement. As you can see, profit increased from around GBP 310 million to GBP 530 million, and we've highlighted the main drivers of the change. Points 1 and 4, higher premiums and lower current period loss ratio, which is positively impacted by lockdown earlier in the year, are important factors. Clearly points 2 and 3, the higher reserve releases and much higher profit commission revenue are the key items. This slide explains a bit more about what's happening there.
On the top, we show the book loss ratios at the end of the current half year, along with the changes in the ratios since the end of 2020. For example, the 2019 underwriting year is now booked at 73%, down 3% from the end of 2020. On the bottom we show reserve releases and profit commission split by underwriting year for H1 this year and H1 last year. What's happened in the first half of this year is firstly, somewhat bigger reductions in the book loss ratios across a number of years. Secondly, quite a few of those years are now very profitable, as you can see with book loss ratios in the high 60s, low 70s.
Those two factors combine to lead, firstly to bigger reserve releases, notably on the commuted share of the business, and secondly, because of the greater profitability to much higher profit commission, as you can see in the green on the bottom charts. In summary, there are more points of book-loss ratio movement, and each point of movement is generating more profit. Movements on the back years as always predominantly relate to improved projections for bodily injury claims, as Cristina will touch on later. The 2020 underwriting year is particularly notable, very positive given its relatively early stage of development, and the low book-loss ratio is already leading to very significant profit commission being recognized. COVID has obviously had a fairly notable impact there.
There's been no change to the relative level of conservatism overall in the book reserves compared to the best estimate, nor the margin held on the most recent period. As we noted in the trading update a few weeks back, it's extremely unlikely that this level of reserve release and profit commission will be repeated in the second half of this year. We also fully expect that current period loss ratio for the second half will be higher than the first half. Obviously, we are very happy to get into more detail on the U.K. result with anyone who needs to. Moving on now from profits to look at the half year capital position. The top chart here shows the capital position in terms of the requirement, the surplus, and the solvency ratio.
Just to note that these figures don't include the capital from the Penguin Portals disposal. We see a GBP 55 million increase in the level of surplus, moving the solvency ratio up to over 200%. On the waterfall on the bottom of this slide, we set out the factors that contribute to the change. The fairly notable reduction in the capital requirement is partly an unwind of the increase we saw at the end of 2020 related to higher profit commission risk. A brief update on the internal model. As we spoke about back in March, we're taking some time to review various aspects of the model, and this has changed the timing of our application for approval. We'll continue to use the current basis of calculating the capital requirement, and we provide updates on progress in due course, but not necessarily with every results presentation.
We're declaring a large increase in the interim dividend, so let's take a look at that. As you see here, the current period interim dividend is made up of two parts, the regular dividend on the first half earnings, and then the element related to the comparison disposal proceeds. The regular part is GBP 1.15 per share, just over 60% higher than 2020's interim, and that increase is broadly consistent with the change in earnings per share. The payout ratio is 87%, and that's in line with the 2020 full year. The second part relates to the proceeds from the disposal of the comparison businesses, which completed earlier in the year. As you can see, we're planning to pay the large majority of the net proceeds to shareholders as special dividends. The total is GBP 400 million, and we'll phase the return over three dividends.
This interim, 2020's final, and the 2022 interim dividend. The final payment will be a year after the first. We're expecting three payments of GBP 0.46 per share. The reason for the phasing is to smooth the return and the associated bonuses over 2021 and 2022, rather than pay the whole amount out at once. Before I wrap up, I would just point you to the reinsurance slide in the back of the presentation. We are in the process of contracting a new long-term agreement with Munich Re on reinsurance for the UK business. There'll be a change in the mix between co-insurance and quota share and improved terms for Admiral. Some high-level details are included there and more to follow with our full year results in March 2022. A quick summary from me of the financials.
Decent growth across the group, notably, but not just in the UK Motor business. A very large increase in the first half profit, driven by bigger reserve releases, much higher profit commission, and a better current period loss ratio, and a very large interim dividend with a healthy capital position maintained. I'll pass you now to Cristina to talk about the U.K. Over to you, Cristina.
Good morning, everybody. It's been a solid half year for the UK Insurance business. Key highlights, strong growth in our motor book of 12%. Very good loss ratios, both for recent and past years, as you saw in the numbers referred to by Geraint. This is a testimony of our strong underwriting capabilities as we continue to outperform the market in claims outcomes. During the period, we have seen in claims an increase in frequency and a continuation of the underlying inflation trends. In household, we have experienced good growth and record profits. The outlook for the future, well, we expect firstly market prices to increase in the second half of this year. From next year, due to the FCA pricing reform, we expect high price increases in new business in motor and even higher in household.
As Milena said, we continue to be a great company to work for. We have achieved several awards this year in our UK Insurance business. This includes being voted best company to work for in terms of staff well-being, second-best company to work for women, top five for all staff. Let's start with the strong growth in our motor book. In the market, we saw new business prices decreasing across the period, even though frequency started to increase several months ago. Admiral reduced new business prices during the lockdown period by double digits. We started increasing prices in March this year. So far, we have increased new business prices by mid-single digits. This means we remain significantly cheaper than before the pandemic.
You can see in our Times Top graph that we became very competitive during the last part of last year. We have decreased our Times Top strongly since March. This suggests that we're putting prices ahead of the market. Some of you might be wondering how we managed to grow by 12% if we're putting prices up. Well, to explain this, we need to realize that most of the growth came from the second half of last year. During this year, the growth has mostly come from our renewals. We continue to improve our operational capabilities. During this period, we have especially improved our digital offering to our customers. For the second half of the year, we expect limited growth as we continue to put prices up ahead of the market, reflecting increases in frequency. Let's move to look at claims.
Frequency is the main feature during this period and is a feature that has had more impact on price changes, and I think it will be the one that has more impact also going forward. As lockdown measures have been relaxing, we have seen frequency increasing. The good news is that actually, frequency has increased less than raw usage. The main reason for this is change in driving behaviors. The most significant one is that we have seen fewer peak-hour accidents. In terms of claims inflation, we see a continuation of the underlying trends, and in this period, we have seen higher part costs due to advances in vehicle technology, and also an increase in the cost of used cars. At Admiral, we have also seen slightly higher inflation due to COVID. A couple of examples include waiving access to care workers and cleaning fees at garages.
In terms of large bodily injury claims, we have seen positive development higher than in other periods. As Geraint Jones shared with you, the main rationale for this includes more positive outcomes on some large settlements and faster speed of settlement, as we have had more capacity due to fewer claims during COVID. If we take a step back and look at Admiral claims capabilities, I'm very proud to say that Admiral continues to outperform the market in claims outcomes. As you can see in the graph, our total claims cost is more than 10% better than the average. Some of the reasons that I would like to highlight for this are the very experienced staff that we have in our claims department. Also, our faster capabilities, both at settling claims by capturing third parties. This is still continuing to improve due to our changes in digital capabilities.
Quite important is that we adapt quickly to market changes. An example of this is that we have been able to improve our fraud savings by 50% following a legal change a few years ago. While some might think that improving claim costs actually has a negative impact on customer satisfaction, that's not the case with Admiral. Because 93% of our customers are likely to renew after a claim. Admiral is particularly strong in the management of bodily injury claims, where we have lots of very skilled staff. These costs represent for Admiral a higher proportion than for the market because we have lower excess loss protection and we target higher risk. Moving on to household. We have also had very strong growth in this business, and this has been helped by strong Timestop performance. That is, we have been decreasing prices. Strong retention.
We have managed to increase the gap between Admiral retention and the market average and MultiCover. The cross-sell of UK Household to new and existing UK Motor customers continue to play a significant part in our household business. Our profits have also increased in the last 12 months. This is due to the absence of any significant weather event, improvements in our claims capabilities, and also due to COVID as changes in customer behavior and has affected our claims mix. When people stay more at home, we see fewer theft claims and also fewer big escape of water claims. To conclude, I would like to talk about our expectations for the next 18 months. A disclaimer, it's very hard to make predictions as there is a lot of uncertainty and many moving parts. Let's try.
When we look at motor, for the second half of the year, I would expect prices to increase. We have seen strong decreases in the market in Q1 but much more timid in Q2. The ABI highlights quarter-on-quarter -1% reduction in Q2. This might suggest prices will be flat going forward or will start to increase. In any case, we think market prices are going to lag in terms of frequency increases and in terms of what increase the market will need to compensate for this. Also, we think we will see limited additional impact from Whiplash because it has already been priced to some extent and also because it's still uncertain. It's still difficult to know what the actual impact is going to be on claims cost. For next year, we expect strong increase in new business prices after the implementation of the FCA reform.
We also expect in retention that there will be a reduction in prices which will push retention up. However, the reform also makes cancellations much easier, which we think might push retention down. It's hard to tell how price comparison websites are going to react to this reform. In terms of UK Household, during the second quarter of the year, the market has become more competitive, and we think this is going to continue during the second half as some companies might want to grow their book ahead of the implementation of the FCA pricing reform. Next year, we expect increases in market new business prices to be even higher than in UK Motor, as UK Household books tend to have higher tenure. That's it for the UK Insurance results.
It's been a solid half-year with double-digit growth, both in our motor and our household book, and very good loss ratios underpinned by a strong claims management and a strong execution, as referred by Milena. Now over to Costantino to hear more about the international results.
Thanks, Cristina, and good morning, everyone. Before diving into the financial results, I'd like to thank our people who have continued to serve our customers with professionalism, passion, and smiles, even in a remote environment. In this slide, some pictures that celebrate our culture and successes, such as Great Place To Work, including Admiral Seguros, ranking number one in Spain. Let's start looking at the sets of results of our European businesses. The key message is that we have achieved a double-digit growth in turnover and in customers despite challenging markets, and we have delivered a profit on a combined basis, renovating our commitment to build long-term sustainable businesses. I'd like to expand a bit on the different geographies.
In France, we are facing a very good momentum, and we consciously invested more to achieve a remarkable high double-digit growth year- on- year, both in turnover and in active customers. This is a combined result of a strong performance in direct acquisition, supported by the investments in digital, brand, promotions, and the softer market, which is less cyclical and overall less exposed to premium fluctuations. In Spain and Italy, we have also achieved a significant 15% customers growth, although lower than in France. We have delivered good underwriting results comparable to a year ago, despite more challenging markets with average premium fell due to less demand and high competition, both driven by COVID.
Stepping back from the details of the various countries and looking again at the big picture, if we compare this result with the 2019 one, removing the majority of COVID impact, we see a combined ratio that is slightly improved with an overall customers growth close to 30%. To wrap up on the European businesses, a positive set of results in a context of continued investments in growth in competitive markets. We remain confident on the long-term trajectory, and I'm sure the focus on risk selection, digital services, and expanding distribution will continue to offer significant opportunities. Moving on to Elephant and to the U.S. markets now. The key message is that Elephant continues to strengthen the business fundamentals and therefore to focus on prioritizing bottom-line improvements against top-line growth. Comparing these half-term results with the 2019 one, we see a clear improvement with a 30% loss reduction.
Although turnover has been pretty flat as a consequence of a prudent approach to growth, expensive acquisition market where costs increased by 30% in the equivalent period, and softer COVID impact with the claims frequency returned close to normal level since several months. I'd like to briefly touch on the six months policy. It is now a while we have rolled out this product. We have already seen some clear benefit on conversion and lifetime value. The six months policy gives us clearly more agility to respond to claims frequency and inflation changes while offering a compelling product widely appreciated by the U.S. customers. Expanding now on the expense ratio, notably, we are seeing investments in digital and automation are paying off the efforts with operational costs per customers going down double digit year-on-year.
Finally, it is worth mentioning the new initiatives on distribution like agencies and partnerships that are delivering healthy and cost-efficient growth, although still at a small scale. To conclude on Elephant, while recognizing that the growth is becoming more expensive, raising the bar of the challenges in the future, I feel confident on the direction of travel and the progress made in the last semester. Thanks. I pass over back to Milena to talk about our loans business.
Thanks, Costi. We are very pleased that during this period, the loans book has returned to growth while strengthening underlying fundamentals, and with no significant change in defaults over the period. The graph at the top show new business evolution by quarter. As mentioned before, you can see that the business reacted quickly to the pandemic, but in the last quarter, we were back at pre-COVID levels.
We had a modest loss of GBP 1.9 million, and a better back book performance than initially anticipated. Scott and his team increased provisions as economic uncertainty peaked, and reduced provisions as certainty improved, as you can see on the chart on the right. The loans business will maintain a conservative provisioning approach as we look ahead in line with our prudent culture. Another important element to note here is that our strategy remains the same as it was pre-COVID, but the fundamentals of the business are stronger today. Over the last year or so, we have built on our competitive advantage, improved digital capability, and product for our customers. Our risk selection is also refined, and we use more data and a new pricing engine. We'll also continue to build scale to achieve expense efficiency, ensuring that the business is a highly scalable operation for the future.
Our guidance for loans balance remains on track for GBP 500 million-GBP 550 million in 2021. If no further shock in the macroeconomic environment, we expect an improved loans loss for the full year in the range of GBP 3 million-GBP 6 million and our loan business to become a significant and sustainable contributor to group profit over the longer term. Speaking about long-term, sustainability and ESG are, very rightly so, recently taking more and more space in corporate strategies and boards. We are strongly committed, and we are adapting and adopting new best practices. It's fair to say that this has been always in Admiral's DNA from the day Admiral was set up by Hen and David. The customer and the people metrics that you see on this slide are metrics that we always live every day.
The best value we can create for our customer, indeed, is to offer more affordable options for more people and with good experience. Looking back, we've been the most competitive motor insurer in the U.K. and one of the most inclusive, with a large footprint. We did provide, on average, a great service, also in the moment of through the claim, as Cristina noted before. This focus on doing what is right for the long term over the short term is embedded in our culture, and it is reinforced by our remuneration system, with diffuse staff shareholding across all the group at every level that ensures strong alignment of interest also with our investors. Recently, it has been recognized with good ESG rating as well.
We're also very committed to play a positive role in our community through charitable initiatives. We understand our responsibility on climate change. We are already using renewable energy and offsetting carbon footprint, as well as supporting projects such as the Size of Wales or Stand For Trees to protect forests in Kenya or plant new tree in Brecon Beacons. We're conscious that climate change is an area where we all need to step up and do more. Our ambition is to be net zero by 2040 at the latest. To achieve that, in the next ten years, we aim to reduce emission by 50% and be net zero across Scope 1 and 2. There are many initiatives in place across our operations and investments. We'll talk more about this at the end.
Beyond the three s copes, where we can have a truly positive impact is the evolution of our product and services. We are rating and writing more electric vehicles than our pro rata market share, and we're growing this portfolio at very fast pace in the last year and offering features as battery and charging equipment cover. Becoming better service providers and underwriters of greener asset is where we can have the greatest impact to support our community to make better, greener choices. In summary, a strong set of results and continued growth across the businesses. A reflection of good execution and strong foundations, and a commitment to continue to do what is right for the future for our customers, our employees, and our communities.
Thank you very much for listening, and we're now happy to answer your questions for which we will be joined by Scott Cargill, our Loans CEO. Thank you.
Good morning. We have 3 questions on the webcast from Alex Evans. The first question is, from your reserve releases, it seems like you've been quite conservative for releasing from the 2020 year compared to what you reported in the first half of 2020. Is that a fair assessment, and is it down to a slower claim settlement at the moment? The second question, you mentioned retention remains high, but we've seen you put through price increases higher than the market. What is driving this? The third question, as the revenue per vehicle continues to decline, is it possible to give some color on what would be organic and what is COVID related? I'll hand over to Milena.
Thank you, Marisja . Good morning again, everybody. Geraint, do you want to take the first question and Cristina the following two?
Yeah, will do. Thanks, Milena. I think the first question actually relates to COVID. What we saw in the first half of 2020 was that we moved the -1 year, so the 2019 underwriting year, down by 10 points. In the first half of 2021, we've moved the 2020 year, the -1 year, down by 3 points. Obviously at the end of 2019, that was pre-pandemic loss ratio time. When we were updating the loss ratio of the 2019 at the end of the first half of 2020, obviously we were into the pandemic. The big reduction there was really quite a lot of that was related to COVID. I think that's probably more of a COVID impact.
We've seen generally big moves, as you see in the presentation, on the book loss ratios in the first half of this year. The overall reserve margin, as I say, remains flat. There is a prudent margin on 2020, that kind of - 1 year as we would normally expect at this point. We also see room for the best estimate for 2022 to improve as well. That's me. Cristina too, Cristina.
Yes. Thanks, Geraint. The second question was related to retention and price increases. Alex , important to note that so far we have been increasing prices, only focusing on new business. Therefore, retention continues partly because of prices, but also partly because of improvements in our operations and digital capabilities. In terms of other revenue, there are two key factors that explained the decrease. One is related to COVID, which is a reduction in the income at claim stage proportional to the reduction in the number of claims. The second impact is a reduction in the margin of the Motor Legal Protection product. This is explained by an increase in the cost due to the Whiplash reform. Thank you. We can now move on to the next question.
The next question is a telephone question from the line of Freya Kong with Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. I have 3 questions, please. Firstly, on the favorable prior year development in bodily injury, you said that you don't currently expect this to be repeated in second half. What has driven the more positive outcomes in BI settlements in H1? Is there any observable trend here? In terms of greater capacity for your team to accelerate settlements, do you think we could see more of this in H2? My second question is that you raised prices ahead of peers in H1, which saw some slowdown in growth this year. Do you think that market pricing has turned now, and do you think your relative competitiveness could improve again in H2, or will you continue to hike prices ahead of the market? My third question is just on claims inflation. Could you please comment on your outlook for severity from here?
How much of this has been COVID specific and how much is underlying, and is underlying tracking in line with your expectations? Thanks.
Thank you very much. I think, Cristina, those are all yours.
Yes. Thank you. In terms of our bodily injury claims, we have seen higher releases than in previous periods coming from positive settlements. two key reasons behind this. One is a few positive settlements in some very large claims, which have a significant impact. The other one is an acceleration. We might see some of these continue in the future, but not to the same extent. That is our view. Second one was related to new business increasing in the market. You ask, has the market turned? Well, if you look at the ABI quarter-on-quarter price increases or sorry, price decreases for Q1 and Q2. In the 1st quarter, the ABI was talking about -5. In the second, they were talking about -1 . Sorry, - 7 and - 1.
This is an indication that we might see price increases in the second half of the year. Hard to predict as there have been very different behaviors by different players. In the case of Admiral, we will continue to monitor the trends in frequency, in claims inflation, our own loss ratio evolution, and then decide what to do with prices. So far we have increased prices, and we think that will be or we will see that in the second half too. The third question was related to claims inflation, the underlying trends around severity. We have talked about 3%-5% in the past, and we continue with that expectation in the future. There were some pressure on inflation on COVID specific areas, for example, on trade hire because claims took longer to settle or around waiving excesses for care workers.
Some of those or most of those are now coming down. In the future, we do suspect a continuation of the 3%-5% severity inflation.
Thank you.
The next question comes to line of Thomas Bateman with Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. The first question is on growth. You've continued to perform really excellently in the UK motor market and the motor market well. Where do you see opportunities to continue to grow i.e., what parts of the market, and would there be any headwinds to you continuing to grow your market share? The second question is on diversification of earnings. UK motor aside, I'm just trying to think what the operating profit makeup for the company looks like in five` years' time. i.e., how big does home, international, and loans look in terms of contribution to earnings? I know that when you built up the UK Motor business, there was a period when you really built up reserving strength there. Is that something that you're doing currently in the international business? Thank you.
Thank you very much. I think your first question was on growth. I'm going to just have a general comment that we are committed to continue to grow our business, in the different geography insurance as well as investing more in diversification, as you mentioned. The impact of COVID has been different in different parts, and made a bit more complicated to sustain the growth rate of last year in international. Despite that, we're still very healthy growth in Europe, has been a bit more complicated in the U.S. Cristina, do you want to expand a bit more on growth in the U.K. and then I come back on diversification?
Yes, I'm going to focus on UK Motor.
Yes, please.
Yes, two parts. In the second half of this year, we expect limited growth. The rate of growth is going to depend a lot on what the rest of the market does to prices. You have seen in our graph how our Timestop has really come down very quickly in just few months. From now on, it will depend on what the market does, but overall limited. From next year, we expect high increases coming from January, continuing during the year, and it's hard to predict how the different players are going to respond, but maybe there is an opportunity further down the line to continue growing.
On the diversification, the reason behind our diversification strategy is partially change in mobility in the future, and so increasing resilience to our business and diversifying to make sure that we continue to grow in the future.
There is an element of building on our strengths, and what we can deliver to customer that usually is a good competitive and solid product. Also, and I would say possibly more important, is to provide better proposition to customers. Give them more product where we can provide good service at good price, engage with customer, enforce our relationship with them. With that in mind, our priority remain expanding the product proposition to our existing customer and existing geography. That's the main angle we take at that. If you think about this, there are relevant, there are some of our existing diversification that are performing well, that we are accelerating, like for example, Household and loans. We're pleased with the progress.
We think we can create something special for the future, and therefore, we're willing to grow them faster and to make sure they become a material part of our business in the future, even more material than today. Then there is an element of testing new product and new proposition. With that in mind, we set up an incubator of new venture Admiral Pioneer in the U.K. last year. As mentioned before, we are starting now to test the wheel, and we launch first couple of initial product. Another angle to diversification of product is, of course, also try to understand this change in mobility and try to understand where customer are going, how the habits are changing.
For example, we have Veygo, this company that looks after non-standard insurance and make sure that we continue to evolve our motor insurance proposition as well as people change the way they move around.
No, that makes sense. I guess if I had to push you a little bit, five years down the line, what portion of your operating profit is made up to UK Motor and what is from kind of other revenue channels?
Yeah. It is a good question. The way we look at the business is we look at them in a relatively independent way and try to optimize the rate of growth and the margin as we go, depending on the phase of the cycle and the potential of the business. If we look at the next five years, the part of the business that may have a more material impact, will have a more material impact, are likely to be International Insurance and Household and Loans. Everything else I discussed before is more likely to have an impact in a different time horizon, so more in the 5-10 year horizon. How much International Household and Loans are going to be? I think we gave some indication about our ambition on International Insurance, and we made some progress in line with that expectation.
It's difficult to say for loans because there are some external factors as well. As I mentioned before, we're very positive about both loans and household, and we're growing at pace. You may expect it to be a more material part of top line and bottom line.
Thank you very much.
The next question comes the line of James Shuck with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi, good morning, everybody. Three questions from me. Firstly, on the commutations, which were up quite materially year- on- year. I noticed that in relation to the reserves that were actually commuted, the level of commutations have gone up quite significantly. I think about GBP 350 million of reserves, and you've seen GBP 118 million of commutations. Would you just explain that difference to me, please? That'd be helpful. Second question is around the 2021 book to loss ratio, which is coming in at 77%. You usually provide a bridge between the book loss ratios over time year- on- year. I think, could you provide a bridge between the 69% to the 77% 2020-2021 in terms of frequency and severity, please?
Final question, you mentioned that you were seeing larger book loss ratio development across recent years than usual. That's been driven by the BI side of things. We're not seeing that on the ultimates because, so if you could just explain the differential between the two, please? Thank you.
Geraint, are you happy to answer the first one? Then the second one as well.
James, you might have to repeat the second one. The first one's about commutations. Firstly, the size of the release on the share of the business that was originally reinsured. Secondly, good spotting in the detail of the size of the reserve that we assumed as a result of the commutations in the first half of this year was larger. The second one is slightly easier. The commutations that we executed in the first half of this year were kind of in line with expectation. They were the sort of contracts that came up for commutation in the first half. The reason it's a bigger number is because the years and the reserves are just bigger. More recently, we've been bigger in size, and the reserves that we've assumed as a result of those commutations have therefore been larger.
There's nothing really more material to it than growth. The first question, which is the bigger contribution to profit in the current period from reserve releases on the share of the business that was originally reinsured. That's larger because firstly, bigger loss ratio movements in the first half, as I set out on slide 13. Secondly, those bigger loss ratio movements are coming on more recent years where we've commuted the reinsurance. The four points on 2018, the three points on 2017, the reinsurance has largely been commuted on those years, and so we're seeing quite a big contribution from releases on that part of the business. Those would be the reasons there. James, can you repeat the second question? Sorry, I missed that one.
Sure. It's the book loss ratio for H1 2021, which is you've opened at 77%. You normally provide a bridge between the book loss ratio year-on-year. Whether you want to do that with the opening one or the most recent one, I think normally you do it from the most recent one. If it was a 69% book loss ratio for 2020, and you're opening now for 2021 at 77%, could you just provide the bridge between that in terms of frequency and severity, please?
Not sure we normally do. We often or sometimes provide a bridge with the accident year ultimate loss ratio. We don't normally bridge the book loss ratio. The reasons will be the same, I think. We see obviously increase in frequency and underlying increased severity as well. I don't have the numbers off the top of my head. Sorry, James. We don't normally bridge the books loss.
To phrase it slightly differently, just could you give more insight into the 77% opening loss book in 2021 versus what it was in 2020?
I think on 2021, we'd expect the end final ultimate loss ratio of 2021, which of course will include the second half of 2021, is likely to be notably higher than 2020, which is an underwriting year that's going to benefit very materially from COVID and reduced frequency. The start, the initial pick on 2021, I think reflects our view that 2021 ultimately will be higher loss ratio year than 2020.
Sure. Okay. No, that's helpful. Then the other question was just on the larger books loss ratio development, which we don't see that same pattern coming through in the ultimates, which haven't been revised down to a greater extent than previously.
Yeah, I think that's a fair observation. What you actually see, if we extended the ultimate loss ratio chart back over all the years, you do see somewhat greater improvement in the overall best estimate reserve in the first half. I agree with you, James, not that apparent from the chart, partly masked by rounding. We haven't shown all the years as well, so there's some development on older years, which Cristina referred to earlier, which you would normally see so late on after those years. It's quite subtle. There is a bigger improvement in best estimates in the first half than usual.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you very much.
The next question comes from the line of Rhea Shah with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for taking my questions. I've got two. The first one is on UK Motor. You mentioned that much of the growth in customers in the first half came from renewals rather than new business. Are you able to provide a split between the renewal and new business growth? How do you expect that growth to develop over the remainder of the year? The second one is on international car. You mentioned seeing a strong customer growth in Spain and Italy of 15% year-on-year, despite the competitive market conditions. What's driving that growth, and how are you thinking about the outlook for the rest of 2021 and then going into next year as well?
Thank you. We don't normally provide the precise split, but Cristina, maybe you want to add some color around it on the first question and then Costi answer on the second one.
Yes. As you said, Milena, we don't give this split, but I think we're going to see the second half of the year a continuation of what we saw in the first, in the sense that we don't expect new business sales to grow versus last year. Actually, we think it's going to be a very competitive market with some players trying to gain share ahead of the interaction of the FCA reform. No growth at all coming from new business and possibly continue to have very good retention.
Good morning, everyone, again. In Spain and Italy, there are similar stories. The strong growth has been primarily driven by good performance in direct acquisition and expansion towards more traditional channels, so distribution through brokers and agents. About the future outlook, I think it will depend also on the price level. As I commented, there is high competition in those markets. So far, we have been able to beat the competition and to deliver a good growth. We will continue with the same focus we have had so far. It will also depend on the market decisions on prices.
The next question comes the line of Nick Johnson with Numis. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
The first question is on the decrease in UK Motor ancillary revenue. As you mentioned, more businesses being competed digitally, and that's had an impact. To what extent would this be an ongoing trend if digital sales continue to increase? Are you seeing opportunities to improve add-on take-up rate as your digital sales journey is refined? That's the first question. The second question is on UK vehicle growth. Just wondered how much of vehicle growth is due to an increasing proportion of customers with MultiCar? I.e., what is the underlying customer growth rate? Is there still a significant opportunity for MultiCar growth within the existing customer base? Thank you.
Thank you. Given they're both UK Insurance, Cristina, do you want to take them?
Yes. On additional income, as you said, there is pressure when these sales are done online. It's something that we have been seeing for a number of years. We launched, a few months ago, our tier proposition because we think this is a better way for customers to understand our product, and it's also easier for them, the customer journey and buying ancillaries. We launched this, which is still on a test mode, but the initial data is very positive, and we think that is the best way to continue selling ancillaries online. However, we think there might still be pressure in the future. The second question around vehicle growth and what percentage is MultiCar, we don't give this split, but we're doing well on our MultiCar and MultiCover proposition.
It's an area that we continue to enhance and improve, and our customers react very well to it because we provide very strong discounts and a much easier journey.
Okay. That's helpful. Thank you very much.
The next question comes the line of Will Hardcastle with UBS. Please go ahead.
Hey, morning, everyone. Two questions. The first one is, how has the dynamic between the retention and the new business volume changed from, say, January to June as the six-month period progressed? In the latest month, are you still seeing a net benefit in volumes from higher retention and higher new business, or has this reversed somewhat? The second question is regarding the large BI settlements and the favorable outcome. I guess, what would be the counters to suggesting that if you had a higher number of staff in claims management, then this could actually result in further claims settling quicker? I'm trying to think whether this could in fact be maybe a bit more than just a one-off, or is this just a one-off? Thanks.
Cristina, do you want to take that?
Yes, of course. When we look at the 1st half of the year, what has happened is that when we compare our growth in new business sales versus the previous period, it's been very flat. Remember that in Q2 last year, especially around May, June, we took the opportunity of strong growth. When it comes to renewals, we come from a larger base. When you look at the number of customers that have renewed in total versus the previous period, there has been growth. You ask, how do we see this continue in the second half of the year? Again, as mentioned, I don't think we're going to see growth in new business sales. It will depend not just on what we do, but what the market does. In our view, the market might still be very competitive.
I think we might see price increases in the market. Possibly not to the extent that they should be, in our view. Therefore, we might still not be very competitive. Your last question was around bodily injury settlements and whether having more staff might help. What has happened during this period is that we had much fewer numbers of large BI claims coming in. Yes, it did allow the team to maybe close faster some of the pending claims. We have reviewed our staffing levels. We're comfortable at where we are. That means that we might do things with a bit more staff. We don't expect significant changes in the future.
The next question comes the line of Faizan Lakhani with HSBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
Yep. Perfect. A few questions from me. First, congratulations on a good set of results. The first question was on the Italian probe on the price comparison website on motor insurance. What are the implications? Do you have any update on that front? The second question is on the household insurance book. My understanding is that you benefited from COVID, the fact that people are staying more at home, and claims are lower on that front and also relatively benign weather. Stripping that out, what is the underlying profitability in the household book? The third question is on the change in the reinsurance structure. My understanding is that the quota share reinsurance tends to be more profitable. Given the fact the book loss ratios in recent years have been fairly low, is that benefit more muted, or can we see a sizable improvement in profitability going forward?
The last question, if I may, is just on large BI. Your peers have mentioned similar trends on large BI. How much of this is due to change in the type of accidents we're having versus your own sort of idiosyncratic improvement on your own book?
Thank you. Thank you for your question. On the investigation that you referred to in Italy is the market-wide phenomenon involving a lot of company and price comparison [website]. It is ongoing. There is no conclusion, and it's really early to comment. Of course, we are fully collaborative with the authority, but it's really early stage. The second question, I think Cristina was for you.
Yes, indeed. Thank you for the congrats. You were asking about the underlying profitability of the household book. It's a bit too early to comment. This is still a relatively young business, and it's growing a lot. Some of the key trends that we'll say is first, when you look at the size of the renewals book versus new business, we see that it's growing every year, and that definitely helps profitability in household, given the cost of acquisition versus the premium. It's very expensive to grow. The bigger the renewal book, the bigger our profitability. Second, every year, we have been improving our data and our claims capability, and that translates into better loss ratios. Improving underlying trends. We're positive about the future, but too early to comment what is the stable combined ratio at this stage.
Thank you, Cristina. Sorry, can you remind me the third question?
It was regarding the reinsurance structure and the profitability of the change in the structure effectively right now.
Great, thanks. Geraint, you want to take this one?
Yes. There are some details in the back of the pack. The main impact I think to talk about now is the change in the mix between co-insurance and quota shares. The 30% that Munich Re underwrites currently as co-insurance will split from 2022 to 20% co-insurance and 10% quota share. That quota share will effectively operate like the rest of our quota share contracts, the current 38%. There are some details on that in the back of the pack. That's a fairly noticeable change. The terms on the co-insurance will also improve, and we'll try and disclose as much as we can on that with our full year results in March. Overall, it's quite a notable improvement in profitability to Admiral.
Would the improvement potentially be as significant given that book loss ratios are quite low right now, and therefore the co-insurance should be quite profitable itself as well, or in the short term?
Yeah, that's true.
Would the impact be less noticeable years and then maybe acceleration long term?
I think the outlook for the near term is that some of the recent years, as you can see, the book loss ratios are very low. They're into the top tranches of the profit commission structure on that co-insurance. They'll continue to be profitable as those years release their loss ratios down to the ultimate position. The kind of near-term outlook for profitability on those open years is still positive. As that contract changes, which only takes effect from 2022 underwriting year, that obviously changes the share of the profit that we take from that underwriting year onwards. Obviously, that's a bit uncertain at this point to comment on how that'll feed through, but that'll impact years post 2022 in the accounts.
Okay.
The last question was around large BIs and whether we're seeing a fundamental change in the type of accidents. There have been some changes, especially during lockdown periods. For example, we saw less large BIs coming from drink driving on a late Friday or Saturday night. We saw also, especially in the lockdown last year when the weather was excellent, we saw many more people being injured, motorists or pedestrians or people when they were with a bike. Also we saw less number of passengers in a car. You didn't see as many accidents with five, even six people on a car. Those are changes that impacted lockdown periods mostly, and we don't see a change in the underlying trends for the future. Neither we see a fundamental change on the cost of these BIs. It's just different causes for the claim.
Okay. Thank you very much.
As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you wish to ask a question via the webcast, please click on the Ask Question link under the video player, then type your name and question into the form that appears. We will now turn back over to the webcast questions.
We have two questions from Anthony Yang. The first one, both are related to UK motor pricing. The first one is, what is the biggest risk in your view to prevent pricing momentum in the second half? The second one is, Cristina, you mentioned there may be some pricing volatility post-implementation of FCA pricing reform. Could you elaborate? What would prevent you from increasing higher new business prices after January 2022?
Thank you, Marisja . Cristina?
Yes. The first question around pricing momentum in the second half. Two main ones. One external, if we have a third wave of, or sorry, third or fourth lockdown period or any significant market changes, that will definitely have an impact on prices. The second more likely one is basically competitors' appetite for growth. I think there are some companies that might take the opportunity to grow ahead of the implementation of the FCA pricing reform, or other companies that might look at their reserves and how they have it strengthened in the previous period and might take the opportunity to grow. In the case of Admiral, we tend to look at our prices, trying to optimize what we think are going to be the trends in the next 12 months following, and that's where we're going to be looking at.
Your second question was around volatility in prices from next year. First, I think it's important to highlight that in Admiral, as things stand today, we were planning to increase prices at new business and reduce prices at renewals. That I think is going to be the trend in every company in the market. Different volatilities because some companies might have different strategies. For example, they might launch products at new business or at renewals, which have different feature. They might use different channels because the FCA reform looks at products and channel as different. You might also have companies, especially in the household arena, where new business prices need to increase a lot to compensate for a big back book, and also to look at compensate for the relative difference between new business and renewal terms.
As you can see, it's really going to depend on the strategies of the different players. Just to reiterate, in the case of Admiral, we will be rational and we will increase prices at new business and reduce in renewals.
Thank you. The next question from the web chat is from Henry Heathfield. There are two questions. What has been, and what is the appetite going forward to acquire customers on price comparison sites versus direct to yourself? The second question, has the sale of Penguin Portals had an impact on your ability to acquire customers? If not, why not?
Thank you, Marisja . In terms of appetite and distribution channel, price comparison site are by far our dominant channel in almost every market in which we operate, maybe U.S. included. We expect this to continue to be the case. The vast majority of private car insurance pass through price comparison site in the U.K. It's a different situation in international. It's a lesser extent, but still a predominant channel for direct player. We like them because they are a great proposition to customer, but also because they highlight good pricing, both competitive but also price and sophistication, and we think that play well our skill. Yes, we don't see difference in results if you own or not own in price comparison site also because also when we own them, we also manage the business very independently.
Historically, we liked to have price comparison websites because we create the distribution channel in some cases, and that was, as I mentioned before, a distribution channel that was great to us, and also because we had a good understanding of our main distribution channel. In terms of specific results and quote and conversion, that doesn't make any difference. In U.K. in particular, the market is very mature. There are several large players, and the business is quite stable. As Cristina mentioned, there may be some change, in terms of the different roles given from the FCA pricing reform. That's a bit early to comment. Of course, also trying to track customers directly and making sure that we have a good direction is also important. Price comparison websites, by far dominant.
Also, sorry, multi is very important. We do have a different product and we do invest a lot in try to sell and to have more product with our existing customer. It's a bit less predominant in International Insurance. Costi, I don't know if you want to add some color on international.
Yes, Milena. I echo what you have said. They are less predominant than in the U.K., but are still a very important source of business for us, in particular in Europe. That being said, I think that we do have an appetite to continue to grow our businesses as we need more scale. We have decided to differentiate the sorts of growth for our businesses, in particular in the more stagnant market like Italy and Spain. Still a very important channel for us, but we are also keen to open more opportunities for growth for us.
The next question is a follow-up from the line of Will Hardcastle with UBS. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the follow-up. It's a quick one on solvency. If I look at the half year last year and the half year this year, the SCR is the same despite very sizable growth in UK Motor, UK Household, international business. Just really trying to understand what the moving parts here, what the offsets here were in order to maintain that flat. Thanks.
Thank you. Geraint?
Yeah, there's a couple of things going on, Will, in the total SCR, which means that it appears, well it is flat half year on half year, and is down obviously from the end of the full year to the half year 2021. What we see is that the insurance business has grown, so the top line is a bit higher, not dramatically higher. Premiums are not up as much as customers. That's driven an increase. The loans business is down half year on half year, so that's brought it back down a bit. As I think as we talked about before, the outlook for profitability, which impacts the capital requirement, is lower looking forward to the next 12 months at the end of June 2021 than it was when we looked forwards 12 months at the end of June 2020.
That means a bit of an offset as well. All those things kind of taken into account means basically a flat position half-year on half-year and down from full-year to half-year. There's quite a few moving parts in it, Will.
Brilliant. Thanks.
The next question is a follow-up from the line of James Shuck with Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my follow-up. Apologies for this one, but IFRS 17, Geraint. Just interested to know what implications that might have for you because you've historically reserved very conservatively, and IFRS 17 should mean your book much closer to best estimate, which has all sorts of implications in terms of earnings volatility and potentially solvency needs. Secondly, on the FCA pricing reforms, as the new business increases pricing in order to generate the same return, so as we flush through the market impact from the FCA reforms, then it'll back out the kind of renewal rate increases of the past. Are you able to give any insight into what the potential earnings impacts might be for you as we move into 2022? Whether there's any offsetting impact on the profit commission and perhaps commutations?
The final question, the third question, was just around the ultimate development. Historically, they've developed very favorably in the past. I think linked to my question before, we're not seeing quite the same positive development at this point. Do you still expect the ultimates to develop favorably? If so, will it be less than they have done in the past? Thank you.
Geraint, do you want to start to take the first one?
Yeah. IFRS 17, a lot of work going on obviously in the background. Big team on the implementation of that. We'll talk more to the market, I think, in 2022 on the likely implications of that. How our results are likely to look under that new standard, which obviously takes effect from 2023. There's nothing in the standard that prevents the company from taking a prudent and cautious approach to reserving in the accounts, and I'd expect us to keep on doing that. We think that works well for us and well for the shareholders as well. I think what you definitely will see is more transparency on the book's position in the accounting relative to the best estimate percentiles and uplifts and things like that.
I think it's very clear or becoming very clear that the way that the accounts look and the way that profit flows will obviously be quite different. KPIs will be different and so on. We'll need to spend a bit of time getting used to how our results will get reported from there on. More on that, I think, in 2022 in advance of that coming into effect.
Sorry, yes. Cristina, do you want to answer the second one?
Yes. The question was around the impact of the FCA reforms on our earnings and related KPIs. I think it's important to highlight that the market in general tends to be very rational and tends to pass any of these changes in the market, especially profitability to customers. A few years ago, we had a change in the discount rate, and there was a very clear movement by all the markets passing everything to customers. I think it will take some time to fully understand the impact of the FCA reforms, but I expect the market to be rational and pass these to customers to keep with a similar level of overall profitability. I think it's definitely too early to comment on any impacts beyond this.
Thank you, Cristina. Geraint, do you want to comment on the ultimates evolution?
What we typically see is that the most recent years on the ultimate loss ratio charts will tend to improve over time as some of the conservatism that we build into those numbers early on obviously comes out over time as we get more certain over the outcome. There's nothing, I think, that particularly changes our view that should continue into the future. Cristina talked about, we've mentioned some acceleration of settlement of bodily injury claims during the first half. I think we've been pretty cautious in recognizing that in our patterns going forward. I don't expect a material change. I think we'd still expect those more recent years to continue to improve. No big change.
Great. That's very helpful. If I can just circle back on the FCA earnings impact, just conceptually. Do you agree that there should be some earnings headwinds to you as the new products start to price through, and you just need to assess those at this stage? I understand what you're saying about a rational market. Just mathematically, one might expect some earnings headwinds from that.
This is a cyclical market. We think 2020 and the first half of 2021 are particularly good years. Possibly, we're looking at a 2022 year that is going to be more challenging because of the unwinding all the discounts due to COVID claims inflation and also because of the FCA. Yes, I overall think that 2022 is going to be a more difficult year, that we will all learn and understand more what the impacts are. Do I believe there are going to be headwinds because of the FCA? I think in this market, what really matters is how every player is in relation to the other players. I'm a bit of an optimistic, and I think we're in a good position because we have a healthier book. We have customers that shop on a very regular basis, and we have one of the largest renewals books.
I'm confident that we are in a strong position. We have strong underwriting capabilities, which are going to be more important. Are there going to be headwinds from 2022? Yes, for a number of reasons. Unless the market acts rational and increase prices, there might be even bigger headwinds.
Ladies and gentlemen.
Sorry. Just before we close, I just would like to take a second to thank all the staff for incredible work during a year that was definitely challenging. They've done a fantastic job. It's great really to be able to share record dividend with all our staff in this half year. Thank you, everybody.
Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect. Goodbye.
Goodbye, everybody