Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (LON:AML)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2020

Jul 29, 2020

Lawrence Stroll
Executive Chairman, Aston Martin Lagonda

Good morning, and I hope you are all safe and well. I'm Lawrence Stroll, and thank you for joining the H1 Results of Aston Martin Lagonda. I'm pleased to be talking to you today for the first time since joining the business just over 90 days ago as Executive Chairman. It's been a busy three months. We have made excellent progress executing the initial key phases of our multi-year plan while managing the challenge presented by COVID-19. My primary concern, of course, is the health and safety of our teams and partners, and I thank them, and I'm proud of their response in these uncertain times. On trading, COVID-19 impacted our operations, with most of our dealers closed for much of the trading period. Despite this, we have made tremendous progress on the key phase of our plan.

We are restoring exclusivity to our sports cars, rebalancing supply to demand, which in short term means lower wholesale volumes but necessary for future success. What has impressed me the most is that despite our dealers being closed, we have destocked the dealer network by 869 sports car units, equivalent to three months' retail sales. I am also extremely delighted to announce the appointment of Tobias Moers as CEO. He joins next week. He has a fantastic track record of profitable product expansion from leading Mercedes-AMG. Tobias is the right leader for this business. He has a unique combination of being both a CEO and CTO. He has worked at our key partner, and I am looking forward to him starting imminently. Also, Ken Gregor, who will be taking you through the financial results today, joined us last month as CFO.

Operationally, we have taken decisive action on costs, with plans to reduce employee numbers by up to 500, right-sizing for lower sports car volumes, and focused on driving profitability. DBX production has started. First deliveries have been made, with the first car rolling off the line on the 9th of July, and the media launch is happening now. My final point on introduction here is really critical. We have raised GBP 688 million of new equity. Me, personally, and my consortium have contributed a large portion of that to improve financial flexibility and the ability to deliver the plan as is prudent through the current uncertain period. With that, I'll hand over to Ken.

Ken Gregor
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Thank you, Lawrence, and good morning, everyone. I'm Ken Gregor. I'm the new CFO of Aston Martin. I'm delighted to be joining this iconic British brand. I'm really looking forward to working with Lawrence, Tobias, and the team here to deliver upon its potential. It's obviously been a really tough and challenging first half for the business. It's also been a really intense first six weeks for me, as I've got up to speed with the business, started to work with the team here, and started to address the issues we face. Turning to the factors that have impacted the first half, the first has been the strategic reset. We've successfully reduced dealer stock, but that's brought with it lower wholesale and higher incentive spending. We've seen the impact of COVID-19 closing our production facilities temporarily and reducing customer demand.

Those things together also caused a working capital outflow in the first half, largely as payables unwound. Understanding those things, we've continued to invest in the vehicles that are vital for our future, especially the DBX, which we're really pleased to be launching now at St. Athan. The last point on this slide is that we identified in our half-one closing process that our U.S. region had been deducting wholesale and retail incentive support from revenue later than it should have been. As a result, we've restated the balance sheet of 2019, 2018, and the income statement for 2019 to reflect the impact of this error. Turning to the factors that have impacted the first half, the first has been the strategic reset. We've successfully reduced dealer stock, but that's seen lower wholesale and higher incentive spending.

COVID-19, of course, has seen us close our production facilities and lower retail demand. It has also caused a working capital outflow in the first six months as payables have unwound. Notwithstanding these things, we have continued to invest in the vehicles which are vital for our future, and it is really exciting to see the launch of the DBX in St. Athan. We have also identified in the first half, in the closing process, that our U.S. region has been deducting variable marketing expense from revenue later than it should have been. I should point out that there is no cash effect of this, and neither our historic nor predicted cash flows are impacted by this change, and there are further details in the appendix. The rest of the numbers in this presentation have been adjusted to include this impact.

Turning to the next slide, some of the key metrics of the business in the first half are shown, and you can obviously see the impact on wholesale revenue, the EBITDA loss of GBP 89 million, and the free cash outflow of GBP 371 million that we had in the first half. On this chart, which talks to volumes, I've included some additional disclosure to help you understand the business better. The first is retail sales. Those are the sales from our dealers to end customers.

Those were 1,770 units in the first half, down 41% on the same period last year. Wholesales in the first half were 895 units, down 63%, and you see the difference between those two numbers being the reduction in dealer stock of 869 units that we successfully achieved. The second bit of additional disclosure is the split of wholesales between GT, that's DB11 and DBS, and sports cars, which I think will just help you understand the mix of the business better. You can see the reduction in wholesale by geography as the impact of COVID-19 impacted different regions at different times, but obviously they're all down substantially year on year. Moving to the next slide.

This slide shows the impact on our revenue, and broadly, it's what you'd expect to see, significantly lower due to the wholesale volume being lower and being GBP 146 million in the first half of the year, and also including the effect of the higher incentive spending year on year. The next slide talks to EBITDA and shows the bridge in the top left shows the effect on a life-to-life basis of the reduction from GBP 41 million to GBP 89 million year- on- year. Of course, the significant impact is the reduction in volume driving the substantial reduction in EBITDA that we've seen, partially offset by cost reductions, furlough credits, and delayed marketing spending. Moving to the next slide, I've included a bridge here to help explain our cash flow better, and I've also included a new metric, which I'll be talking about in the future, of Free cash flow.

By that metric, what I mean is the cash flow of the business after interest, tax, working capital, and our capital spending. In the first half, it was GBP 371 million, and you can see the makeup of it on this chart, as I have previously described. We have clearly raised a substantial amount of equity in the first half, as you all know, GBP 688 million, which has both offset the free cash outflow and built the cash balance to finish the first half at GBP 359 million, and also reduced the net debt to GBP 752 million and established the liquidity we need to be able to run the business. After the first half, we raised about GBP 75 million from a sea bills program and the delayed draw notes, which has added to the liquidity, which on a pro forma basis would have been GBP 300 million.

Looking forward, it's clearly going to be uncertain with the impact of COVID, and we look to see how the consumer recovery varies by geography. We presently expect wholesales in this year to be about broadly balanced between sports cars and DBX. We're looking forward to DBX ramping up as we build in St. Athan, and of course, we're going to continue with the rigorous cost control and investment discipline that we've been doing for the last six months. With that, I'm delighted to hand back to Lawrence, who's going to talk to you about his vision for the business. Thank you, everyone.

Lawrence Stroll
Executive Chairman, Aston Martin Lagonda

Thank you, Ken. The reason I and my consortium members made this large investment in Aston Martin is because we see the incredible potential for the following reasons. First and foremost, Aston Martin is an incredible brand. It has a rich heritage of over 100 years of history. The exclusivity and volumes naturally positioned Aston Martin as a preeminent luxury brand. Historically, there has been a clear consumer demand for approximately 4,000 front-engine sports cars. Secondly, the SUV has become a substantial category in automotive today, and when you look at our competitors, they make around 5,000 SUVs a year. With the launch of this critically acclaimed DBX, we have been developed on its own unique platform, handles and drives like an Aston Martin sports car. We believe we have a game changer.

I feel confident that we could similarly have a market for 4,000-5,000 SUVs a year over time. In addition, there is a full complement of mid-engine cars, starting from the Aston Martin Valkyrie through to the Valhalla and ultimately the Vanquish. Lastly, there will be an EV platform, and I am confident that prior to the EV launch, through the front engine, the SUV, and its variants, as well as the mid-engine, we will build to a scale of about 10,000 vehicles a year. From next year, we will have the great benefit of our own highly competitive Works Formula 1 team to further strengthen the brand. All of this is underpinned by strong financial controls and led by a world-class leadership team.

Looking at our current offer, you've seen refresh of the Vantage this year with the launch of the Roadster with a new grille in March. Customer feedback has been very positive, and it now has the classic Aston Martin grille as an option on both the Roadster and the Coupe. We're also bringing in a new younger customer this year with this car, and these cars will start to be built to order at Gaydon when it reopens at the end of August. For DB11 and DBS Superleggera, we have variants in the market for both and have started to work on the mid-cycle refreshes of these sports cars to keep the lineup fresh and compelling. Now to DBX, our first SUV and first step into a new market. As you have heard, we are in production, and the first cars have been shipped to the customers.

With this car, we are putting into practice the build-to-order model for the future. We have a strong order book with the media launch underway. The embargo lifts on the 10th of August. You'll see more then, and with that, dealer test drives, fleet getting into the market, we're expecting to see another step up in orders. Of course, we will also build out on that platform with many variants coming, the first of which you will see next year. Development of our range of mid-engine cars, descended from the era-defining Aston Martin Valkyrie hypercar, continues apace. The first Valkyrie will be delivered next year. This really is an awe-inspiring car, and from this stable, we will develop the Valhalla supercar to form the basis for the core mid-engine offer with the Vanquish following. Key to supporting this product range, it is fundamental to get the marketing right.

From next year, we'll have our own highly competitive F1 team, a significant global marketing platform with 22 races a year, and we have dealers in 20 of those markets. This gives us a huge opportunity to engage with our customers and partners in each of those markets. There aren't many businesses that have that sort of opportunity to spend face-to-face time, which is such a high proportion of its customers every year. To close, our ambition for the company is significant, clear, and only matched by our determination to succeed. In my first 90 days or so, we have made great progress in taking the right actions to deliver the turnaround required. We've appointed new executive leadership with the right CEO for the business who arrives imminently. We're doing the right things to restore and reset the fundamentals for sports cars. We've started to deliver the DBX.

We've taken action on the cost base, aligned the lower volumes in the plan. We can now focus on the engineering and marketing programs to transform Aston Martin and capture the huge opportunity ahead of us. Appreciating what's been accomplished in just 90 days, I feel confident in delivering. There is a lot to be done, and we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress. We will be happy to take your questions.

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