Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc (LON:AML)
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Earnings Call: Q1 2023

May 3, 2023

Operator

Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Aston Martin Lagonda first quarter results 2023 conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one and one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Doug Lafferty, Chief Financial Officer of Aston Martin. Please go ahead.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Thank you. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for Aston Martin Lagonda's Q1 2023 results call. I hope you've had a chance to read the results that we released this morning. The release, along with the accompanying slides, are on the IR section of our website as usual. Before I take your questions, I'll make a few introductory comments about our first quarter results, which are in line with expectations and the guidance we gave at our full year results call back in March. Consistent with my comments then, we continue to expect the profile of 2023 to be shaped by the timing of new product launches in both core and specials, with a significant acceleration in our financial performance in the second half.

As you would have seen in this morning's results release, we remain on track to commence deliveries of the first of the next generation sports cars in Q3. Production engagement started in early Q2, and we look forward to sharing more on this later in May. Coming back to Q1 in some more detail. Aligned with our strategy, retail has outpaced wholesales as we continue to see strong demand across the portfolio. The current range of sports cars are essentially sold out for the year, with DBX orders now to the end of Q3. All sales increased by 9% year-on-year to 1,269, primarily driven by strong DBX deliveries. Overall DBX volumes increased by 59%, led by the DBX707, which represented more than 70% of DBX volumes in the quarter.

As expected, GT sports volumes were lower due to the ongoing transition of sports car sales ahead of the imminent launch of our first next generation sports car. Revenue of GBP 296 million increased by 27% year-on-year, benefiting from favorable mix towards the DBX707 and V12 Vantage, higher volumes and strong pricing dynamics in the core portfolio. This was reflected in our core ASP of GBP 180,000 in the quarter, an increase of 19% compared to Q1 2022. In addition, we delivered 18 Valkyries in Q1, up from 14 in Q1 2022, which drove total ASP to GBP 213,000, an increase of 18% year-over-year. Gross margin of 34.4% increased by 300 basis points sequentially, but was lower year-on-year.

This was primarily due to higher manufacturing and logistics costs, as well as mix effect within specials, which more than offset higher year-over-year core gross margin growth. Adjusted EBITDA of GBP 30 million increased by 24% year-over-year, primarily driven by higher revenue and gross profit, partially offset by higher operating expenses, including reinvestments into brand and marketing activities, as well as inflationary impacts on our general costs. Adjusted EBITDA of 10% was consistent with the prior year period. The adjusted operating loss of GBP 48 million reflects D&A increasing year-on-year as guided, driven by higher Aston Martin Valkyrie deliveries and the continuing accelerated amortization and capitalized development costs ahead of next generation of sports cars starting this year.

Free cash outflow of GBP 118 million was also aligned with our outlook and included GBP 86 million of capital expenditure in the period. Working capital was an outflow in Q1, largely driven by higher inventory levels of ordered vehicles at the end of the quarter, as well as initiatives to improve production and supply chain resilience ahead of upcoming vehicle launches. Finally, we finished the quarter with a cash position of GBP 408 million, which included a GBP 50 million repayment of our Revolving Credit Facility during the quarter. In terms of our outlook for the year, our guidance remains unchanged, alongside Amedeo and the team, I'm focused on ensuring we execute our plans, which should provide us with strong momentum as we head into 2024. With that, I'd be happy to take your questions.

Operator

Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. We will now take the first question. It comes from the line of José Asumendi from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

José Asumendi
Head of Global Automotive research, Managing Director, J.P. Morgan

Hey, thanks. José Asumendi from J.P. Morgan. Just two questions, please. First one, could you comment with regards to the pricing momentum and the additional opportunity you have to continue to improve pricing on a quarterly basis and into 2024? How does this relate to the product launches? Second, could you comment please on CapEx for 23? W here do you stand on the CapEx guidance and the confidence to hit the CapEx target as well as the sequential decline in 2024? Thank you.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Thanks, José Asumendi . Good morning. Yeah, look, I think with pricing we're happy with the momentum that we've got. It's solid. We expect pricing to support our gross margin growth going forward. As we've stated several times, all of the next generation sports cars carry that 40% target on gross margin. With that will come price increases. I think as we look to this year, we've got the remainder of the V12 Vantage to deliver. We've also got the DBS 770 Ultimate and of course, we've talked about the specials in the range being the DBR22, obviously the Valkyrie, and then the 110th year anniversary special that we expect to start delivering in the back end of the year.

I think we've got good momentum on pricing in 2023, which should see us running into 2024. As I said, with the next generation sports car launch is imminent we expect that to be accretive. Your question on CapEx. Look, we're not changing our guidance on CapEx for 2023. All the statements that we made at our full year results, so CapEx, expectations are in line with what we said at that stage, so around GBP 370 million, for 2023, which again, we expect to be the peak. From sort of 2024 onwards we know what we've got to deliver.

This year is about bringing the next generation sports cars to the market, finalizing really our CapEx investment on the majority of the ICE vehicles going forward. W e really commence the transition, and that's how we see CapEx evolving over the next few years. I think we'll be we'll be able to provide some more detail on that in due course.

José Asumendi
Head of Global Automotive research, Managing Director, J.P. Morgan

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question. It comes from the line of Christoph Laskawi from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Christoph Laskawi
Equity Research Analyst and Vice President, Deutsche Bank

Hey, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. The first one, also a bit on pricing. Just to comment on the ASP sequential development compared to Q4. If you could comment on the geo-mix impact and product mix impact, that will be helpful. The next block on the volumes of the sports and GT models, you said, essentially the rest of the old ones is sold out. How should we think about the ramp down of those volumes? Is it reasonable to assume a decline, roughly in the same magnitude as seen with Q1? How long will the phase out last in the end, for the model that is then launched next quarter and being delivered in Q3?

Is there a specific target order book that you would have for those models in the sense that you would like to see 6 to 9 months or 12 months even that you're trying to build? Any comment on that again, will be helpful. Thanks.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Okay. Thank you, Christoph Laskawi. On pricing, yes. I think the question was sequentially Q4 last year versus Q1 this year. We're marginally down sequentially, so I think it was GBP 184 in Q4 and GBP 180 in Q1. The impact there is FX essentially. There's no real mix impact or regional impact within the sequential numbers there on our ASP. With regard to phasing and the sports cars. Yeah, look, we're all really excited. We're literally on the verge of launching the first car. As is clear with Q1 and as we've sort of stated previously, we're managing that transition of old sports cars out and new sports cars in.

There'll be a sort of regular cadence of launches over the course of the next 12 months that will see the entire range of sports cars refreshed. I'd remind you that is six models, so a Coupe and a Volante of each model. Yeah, I think your point on should we expect Q2 to look a little bit like Q1 with the GT sports performance looking similar, I suspect that's probably a reasonable assumption. Then we would expect strong growth in the second half driven by those next generation sports car launches. E veryone here is really excited about the prospect of getting the cars launched. W e've been working on them for the last couple of years.

We expect demand to be very strong once the cars are released. Your question on order bank do we have something in target, something in mind? I guess the first thing is to make sure that we sell out of the car for this year as quickly as we can, which we expect will be the case. Then to build the order book thereafter with what we expect to be a very, very strong offering across the three models. I think watch this space, but hopefully by the time we get to talk to each other later in the year we'll have more news on how the vehicles have been received, not only by the media, but also by the first customers.

It's an exciting moment for the company and one that's been building for the last couple of years. We're nearly there.

Christoph Laskawi
Equity Research Analyst and Vice President, Deutsche Bank

Thank you. Just one follow-up question. As production has already been starting and prototyping was done, I think, earlier in the year as well, any signs that we should expect a quality led ramp up as you had for the DBX as well, or is it running a bit smoother this time around? Thank you.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Look, what I would say is last year we obviously suffered some issues with supply chain and logistics disruption, predominantly around the ramp up of the DBX707. I think we've said previously, there's been a lot of focus here internally on improving some of our processes in working closer with our supply chain partners. From a, from a proactive company perspective, we're certainly trying to manage that ramp up in a, say, a more orderly process. At this point, and I'm sat around a wooden table I'll touch wood. S o far things are coming together.

We would expect to be being able to meet our ramp up curve for the first of the next generation sports cars, with a high degree of quality and a high degree of certainty on the product that we're delivering to the customers. Hopefully learned lessons from last year. We hope that the supply chain continues to prove to be more robust, to enable us to meet the ramp up. As I said before, this year is all about executing our plans and predominantly in the second half of the year. W e've got to get it right and the organization is fully focused on doing so.

Christoph Laskawi
Equity Research Analyst and Vice President, Deutsche Bank

Very clear. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the last question. It comes from the line of Philippe Houchois from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

Philippe Houchois
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking the question. I've got a couple. One is the... I was looking at your OpEx line in the P&L. It's quite volatile from one quarter to the next. I know the volatility and depreciation is unusual, but it's specific to Aston linked to the production of specials, et cetera. I can understand that. If I look at the other OpEx a year ago, it was GBP 60 million, this is GBP 71 million. It was GBP 54 million in the last quarter. I'm just trying to understand what drives that, quarter to quarter to explain that volatility.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Sure. look, in OpEx, as we've said previously obviously sits in there are marketing expenses and so on. This year we are increasing and continuing to invest behind the brand. You'll see OpEx increasing in line with that profile. Also, we've obviously experienced quite a lot of inflation over the last year, which is meaning that OpEx is on the rise. Then with regards to the DNA, obviously as our, as our CapEx increases year-over-year, we'll incur some more depreciation amortization charges. As we've previously explained as well we're currently in this phase of accelerating out some of the prior investment on the current range of sports cars, as we bring the new sports cars to the market.

Philippe Houchois
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Right. Is there any volatility caused by the payments you make for the F1 team? On that front, I was just wondering, I know the two are separate, but how can you monetize your success in F1 for the Aston Martin brand? How do you see that opportunity?

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

No, there's no volatility with regards to OpEx in relation to the partnership agreement between ourselves and the Formula One team. That's stable. Monetizing it. Look, I think with everybody here again, is thrilled with the start that the team's made to the season. It's incredibly impressive and that can only be good for us as any sponsor or any partner to a Formula One team would want success on the track. Clearly we're starting to see that. How do we monetize it? Well, I think it's all about amplifying the brand.

By amplifying the brand in a sport which is growing and booming, in particular in some of the markets where we expect to see strong growth as well, that can only be to our benefit. I think we referenced last year, in relation to the F1 Edition of the Vantage, just how many of the customers who were acquiring that car were new to the brand. We believe a lot of that resonates through the association with Formula One. We're also we're continuing the relationship with the Safety Car and the Medical Car and the DBX707 is now the Medical Car on track, at various Formula One events through the season. The association is growing.

I think, the Formula One team having strong results on the track is only going to be good for us from a, from a PLC point of view.

Philippe Houchois
Equity Analyst, Jefferies

Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We will now take the next question. It comes from the line of George Galliers from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.

George Galliers
Head of European Automotive Investment Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. Just a couple from me. The first one was just on the DBX. It looks like the volumes were around obviously 670 units during the quarter. If I look back, this is obviously below Q3 and Q4 last year, but it is consistent with Q2 last year. I mean, is this more indicative of the run rate, the quarterly run rate you expect for the DBX going forward, given I believe the second half of last year did have some catch up from the vehicles in transit that hadn't been delivered in the first half of the year?

If it is, does that therefore mean that a full year run rate of the DBX of something in the region of 2,750 units is the right way to think about the volume on the DBX on a forward-looking basis? The second question I had, was just with respect to the new models, and I know you're being quite cautious in terms of what you're revealing at the moment. Is that right way to think about this as one model to be unveiled every quarter starting this quarter, with that product going into production roughly eight weeks later? Is that the right thought process with regards to the timing? The third question I had was just on the other gross margin improvement in the bridge.

If you could just give us any insight into what was in there, that would be great. Finally, just with respect to also financing, can you just remind us of what % of your cars are purchased on finance where you actually have visibility on that? Thank you.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Okay, George Galliers . A couple turned into four. That's good. Good morning. Let me try and deal with the one on new launches first. Yes. Look, I appreciate everyone's patience on this. I think we tried to explain previously why we're perhaps not sort of giving everybody the running road on what exactly is going to unfold. I think that's been to our benefit, and we've gotta think about this from a commercial perspective as well. Obviously, the order book remains very strong on the current range of sports cars, and I think that's testament to the way that we're approaching, the new launches. Look, I think what I will say, George Galliers , is the first launch will happen, at the end of this month, then there'll be a regular cadence from there.

Obviously, as we stated, earlier on we started production earlier in the year, ahead of that launch, and we expect the first customer deliveries of that car to commence in Q3. If you think about the fact that we've got to bring six models to the market effectively in the course of the next 12 months or so, you'll get an idea of cadence. I'm not going to go into more specifics or confirm exactly sort of launch timings or more specific cadence than that. I hope that helps. Second question on the DBX. No, we'll expect to see growth, versus the Q1 numbers.

We expect the DBX to continue to grow during the course of this year. I think above the numbers that you quote, certainly. What I would also say on the DBX is we're seeing very strong mix demand on the 707. 70%, or over 70% of the volumes that we delivered in Q1 were 707 and more than 70% of the order bank that we currently have on the DBX relates to the 707. Strong mix within a growing volume. Your third question, I think, was on gross margin and what sits within other on the gross margin walk.

I think you've got parts and a bit of FX in there, but it's not too material, George Galliers . I think other non-vehicle sales, spare parts sales, and a bit of FX, which is driving that slight sort of deviation from the rest of the core gross margin. There's not a lot moving. There's not really anything specific to call out. It's bits and pieces rounding to that sort of 1%. Remind me the final question, sorry.

George Galliers
Head of European Automotive Investment Research, Goldman Sachs

Yeah, sorry. The final one was just to the extent you have visibility, what % of your customers do you believe are buying cars on finance at this point?

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Yeah. No problem. On financing, I think there's some variance across the regions as you'd expect. I think the U.S. is normally has the highest penetration of customers buying cars through financing. I think on average, we're around about just over a third. We do, however, tend to see that when we launch new models, that attracts cash buyers. I don't think we'll deviate too far from that sort of ratio of just over a third. Obviously over the course of the next 12 months or so, we're bringing a lot of new cars to the market, new product launches, and historically we've seen those attract higher cash buyers.

George Galliers
Head of European Automotive Investment Research, Goldman Sachs

Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would like to hand back over to Doug Lafferty for closing remarks.

Doug Lafferty
CFO, Aston Martin Lagonda

Thank you, everybody. I hope that was a useful Q&A. Please keep posted. There'll be news coming out shortly, obviously, with regards to the next generation sports car launch, and with regards to the Capital Markets Day that we discussed back at our full-year results in March. Look forward to connecting again shortly, and if there's any follow-up questions, then please do feel free to reach out.

Operator

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.

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