Hello, and welcome to today's ASOS trading update analyst call. My name is Jordan, and I'll be coordinating your call today. If you'd like to register an audio question, you may do so by pressing star followed by One on your telephone keypad. I'll now hand over to José to begin.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our P1 trading update. I will take you through some of the key aspects of our peak period performance, and then together with Katy, we'll be delighted to take your questions. As you might be able to hear, I have a bad cold, so apologies for my cough and I hope it will not be too distracting. When I last spoke to you at our full year results in mid-October, three months ago, I outlined our driving change agenda and the measures we're taking over the course of this financial year. I was clear that despite our strong foundations, we need to drive real change at ASOS and to prioritize profitability and cash generation. Our plan is focused on simplifying what we do and increasing our flexibility and resilience in this volatile environment.
This will drive more sustainable, profitable growth over the long term, underpinned by a disciplined approach to capital allocation. With that in mind, what you will see from the results today, which cover the four months to the end of December, is what we have started to deliver against this agenda. We are pleased with our progress. It has been a very busy period getting the plan underway. This plan will drive significant benefits with profitability and cash generation accelerating in the second half of the year. It will more than offset headwinds relating to inflation and returns, which we are experiencing in the first half already. The encouraging progress in our change plan makes us more confident that we will deliver a material improvement in H2 following unexpected loss for the first six months of the year. Turning to the numbers.
A declining sales of 3% was broadly in line with our expectations in the period, reflecting challenging trading conditions and the prioritization of structural profitability, improvements, and cash generation through a more disciplined approach to capital deployment. We are pleased with sales up 6% in Europe, reflecting good customer growth and improved basket economics supported by price increases. The U.S. was down 2%, with its lower wholesale performance acting as a drag on retail sales. Rest of the world fell by 10% as we cut back on marketing investment. We introduced changes to delivery charges and thresholds in several territories as a result of the country profitability review that I'll cover in more detail shortly. In the U.K., sales were down 8% in the period, reflecting the weak consumer environment. There were some specific factors.
In September, we sadly said goodbye to Her Majesty the Queen, which had an impact on consumer sentiment. Concerns about inflation and rising energy prices also made consumers feel more cautious. In December, it was affected by disruption in the delivery market, which eroded consumer trust in on-time deliveries. This meant we introduced earlier cut-off dates for Christmas and for New Year deliveries, and we reduced marketing spend. It's also worth noting we were also cycling a strong comparative period in December 2021 as the Omicron COVID variant boosted online retail. Reported gross margin includes the impact of the majority of the non-underlying stock write-off announced at the year-end and was down 690 basis points to 36.1%. Stripping these out gives a broadly flat adjusted gross margin of 42.9%.
We were pleased with the evolution of gross margin relative to the prior year as we progressed through the period. We expect a significant improvement in H2, underpinned by the realization of the benefits from our change agenda, along with a reduction in freight rates. As you may recall, we said at fiscal year 20202022 year end that we expect freight rates to drive a around 100 basis points gross margin benefit. We are making excellent progress on the driving change agenda, including forging ahead with the planned changes to our commercial model and implementing the majority of the profitability and cost mitigation measures. These measures will have an impact of more than GBP 300 million in the current fiscal year.
In parallel, we're facing headwinds relating to inflation and return rate normalization throughout the year, but the benefits of our change agenda will accelerate in the second half to more than offset these headwinds by year-end fiscal year 202023. The new commercial model will enable us to create a more relevant assortment on the ASOS platform and is already yielding results in terms of full price sales mix. We're buying tighter, supported by our new centralized global merchandise planning team. We are taking a more targeted approach to clearance, marking down a narrower range of products more deeply. We have added 21 brands to our Partner Fulfils model and expanded it into Europe. Finally, the physical destruction of the stock we have written off is progressing well and will support improved operational efficiency in our supply chain.
Our program of cost mitigation and profit optimization measures is substantial and wide-ranging. The actions on cost, which generate more than 40% of the benefits mapped to date, include measures relating to marketing, the closure of additional storage facilities, and a reduction in overheads. The balance of the measures to drive profit, the remaining 60% of the program, include changes to buying, pricing, and proposition, and include actions identified through our review of profitability in many of our markets. These actions are country specific and range from increasing delivery thresholds and adjusting premier pricing to optimizing discounting by product and adjusting the price of our delivery services. Finally, we said in October that we will be reinforcing our leadership team. We are delighted to welcome Christoph Stark to lead our supply chain.
Christoph brings a wealth of experience in logistics and fulfillment from high-profile online retailers, including Wayfair and Zalando.
We look forward to updating you on further developments in our executive team over the coming months. Overall, while there is more to do, we have delivered what we set out to achieve in P1 in terms of the change agenda, trading performance and our financial position. We have cash and undrawn facilities of circa GBP 430 million at the end of the period. We expect a similar cash position at the half year. On site, with inventory levels around 5% lower than they were at year end fiscal year 20202022. Most importantly, the actions we have implemented will deliver a material improvement in cash generation and profitability in the second half.
These factors together underpin our confidence that we have ample financial flexibility to deliver our plan, and that ASOS will emerge as a more relevant competitive fashion business capable of generating sustainable value for shareholders. Now I'll hand over to the operator who will run our Q&A session. Thank you very much.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you'd like to register an audio question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two and please ensure you're unmuted when speaking. Our first question comes from Michael Benedict of Berenberg. Michael, please go ahead.
Good morning all. Thanks very much for taking my questions. I have two, if that's okay. Firstly, are you able to give any color on current trading and any expectations for P2, please? The second one, you noted you're expecting to be loss-making in H1, but profitable for the full year. Is there any color you can give on how you expect your GBP 300 million to support H2 versus H1? Are you able to quantify that split, please? Thanks so much.
Okay. Hi, Mike. Let me try take those two. In terms of current trading, we won't be commenting on current trading today, but a couple of reminders. We saw P2 key impacts in Q1, consumer weakness and the Omicron comp in December. We're expecting Omicron impact to last for the remainder of P2, because of course, that's where it ran in the base period and ultimately where, in January and February as many countries in Europe and the U.K. went into lockdown after New Year. We would expect consumer weakness to remain a theme for the remainder of the year. On the GBP 300 million and, clearly given that as part of the full year profit optimization to my go to plan, and we've said that it's weighted towards H2.
Let me give you a little bit more color to help with modeling. We expect the GBP 300 million to be roughly one third in H1 and two thirds in H2 weighted given the time of implementation. In terms of the offsetting cost inflation and returns rate normalization, that is weighted towards H1, so roughly two thirds in H1 and one third in H2, largely due to the returns rate normalization annualizing around April. The result of this, as we've said before, we expect H1 to be loss-making, but to then see significant improvement in the second half.
That's very helpful. Thank you very much.
Thank you. Thank you, Michael.
Our next question comes from Georgina Johanan of JP Morgan. Georgina, please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. Just two from me, please. First of all, just on the RCF, I appreciate you commented on headroom, but can you just clarify on how much of that RCF was drawn down at the end of the period or how much you'd expect it to be drawn down at the end of H1, please? Second of all, I mean, I think the comments that you've just provided give some clarification on that. Should we assume that that GBP 300 million is closer to GBP 400 million on an annualized basis then, please? Thank you.
Okay. Okay. Let me, sorry, George, to answer those. You have to see in our annual report accounts what we have drawn down on the RCF, which was GBP 250 million. We haven't given any guidance as to how long, and we are not planning to do so today. Assuming we've given our liquidity position, and we have ample liquidity for everything that we want to do across the period. In terms of the annualization of GBP 300 million, obviously your math is correct. Clearly, it won't necessarily be that simple. For example, we've talked about things like split orders in Lichfield. That will depend as we move forward, again, how much we start utilizing some of those.
In terms of our general trends, we expect our structural profitability to improve into H2 and for that trend to continue because that's a core focus on what we're working for. In terms of direct extrapolation, as you would expect, it won't be quite that straightforward.
Georgina, if I can build a little bit on Katy's answer. Clearly, what we're trying to do is to materially change the profitability profile of this business. As she said, I don't think we can do it in a very simple way. It's like 300 half year signal. It's not that simple. The ambition and what we are executing is a material change in the profitability of ASOS.
That's really helpful. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up if I may. May I just confirm in terms of the headroom number that you've given for the period end, is that sort of implied cash outflow in the period? Is that sort of normal seasonality or is there anything else there that we should be aware of?
No, it's rather.
Great. Thank you very much.
Our next question comes from Simon Bowler of Numis. Simon, please go ahead.
Good morning. Two, if I may. The first one, you've spoken with regards to kind of low single-digit price rises, being seen through your own brand. Can you just give a sense of how you expect that to trend over the year ahead? I'm sure you've received kind of commentary from next more talking to kind of mid-high single-digit price rises, as well as something you're expecting to feed through your own brand as the year progresses.
Good morning, Simon. Let me, if you want, take a little bit of a step back on how we approach pricing. Obviously, it's the first thing that we try to do is to protect our consumers and to offer them the best possible function at the best possible price. Pricing is, it's always something that we treat with a lot of tender love and care, if I can use that expression. We also approach pricing in a competitive way. For us, we don't follow a cost plus model where we take inflation and we pass it to consumers. We make sure that our products are competitive in the market. We have seen movements in the market and we have moved along with the market.
What this low single digit price increase is in line with what we have seen in the market in the U.K. and our own brands, and that's what we have done. I don't know if that's clear enough, Simon.
Yeah. I think I'd expected kind of inflation across some of those third-party brands would be running it a bit higher than low single digits. I wondered whether you were improving your relative pricing position at all.
Sorry, Simon. I didn't get that part of the question. With third-party brands, we always respect their retail price. We don't underprice them. If third-party brands are coming with a higher price, the consumers will find the same price in our operations that they can find in the normal... I mean, in the brands directly. Sorry. When we're talking about pricing, we'll call the price of our own brands. That is the price we manage and we control.
Yes. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. No, understood that. Okay. Then the second bit was just on the gross margin outlook, where you kind of iterated expectations of an improving shape through the year. Freight feels like it's quite an important part of that, and you've mentioned that 100 basis points. How much of that 100 basis points feeds into the second half? Is that all of that, and therefore freight is effectively 200 bits in the second half? Are there any other major moving drivers behind your second half gross margin expectations, for example, lower clearance?
Very typically, as you said, we've said that H1 gross margin will be in line with P1. We're expecting to see a material tick up come through H2. You're right. The benefit that we talked about will come through in H2.
Okay.
Similarly, if I may, when we look at the gross margin during the first half, the vast majority of the movement is coming from freight and pricing, as we said. We start to see good development on other fronts, like the margin efforts. We expect that during the course of the second half, that will come to fruition in a bigger level. We are quite optimistic, and I think we have a solid listing to say that about the evolution of gross margin in the course of the second half.
Our next question comes from Miriam Josiah of Morgan Stanley. Miriam, please go ahead.
Great. Thanks. Morning, everyone. Firstly, just if you'd give a bit of color on trading in terms of the category mix and if you're seeing any signs of trading down. Also if you'd sort of clarify what you're seeing with returns rates. It sounds like it's still above pre-COVID levels. Has there been any change around that? Secondly, just on the inventory. You've said you expect inventory to be down 5% in the first half versus fiscal year 20202022. Presumably, that base includes the write-off. If so, does that imply that the underlying inventories are up around sort of 8% on my calculations? Just if you could provide any more color there. Thank you.
Okay. Let me take the first question, and then I'll hand over to Katy, if that's okay with you. In terms of trading and categories Sorry, my apologies. In terms of trading and the category, obviously, as always, we see some categories going up and down. Formal wear, sneakers performing very well. We have seen some good surprises in that front. And we are also seeing... We'll share that later with the media, but some big things like trends like skirts going really strong with very positive performance. Obviously, outerwear as well. Obviously, not everything is going well because otherwise we would be posting an amazing growth.
These categories, outerwear, formal wear, and sneakers, I would highlight them as the strong response. You also ask, if I recall correctly, about returns. What we see is that the change in trend that we saw, let's say, around April last year as a result of the war and the inflationary, the cost of living crisis, it's pretty much continuing. We see that returns are high. They're not growing faster. They're pretty much staying at the same level, which are above pre-pandemic levels. It's pretty much what we see. Obviously, we will be analyzing. I don't know. I think you said it like that, right?
The trend, once we get to March, April, because this is when this movement had started. Yeah.
Yeah. In terms of the inventory question, you're absolutely right that the -5 at half year includes the inventory provision, and without that, it would be slightly up versus the year-end position. That's very much in line with what we were expecting, and we're expecting further improvement in H2 through improved stock as well. We expect to end the year obviously down from the half year position.
Great. Thank you.
Our next question comes from Nicolas Katsapas of BNP Paribas Exane. Nicolas, please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you. Yeah, I have a couple of questions around the non-U.K. performance. If you could firstly sort of provide some color on the European regional performance by country, you know, telling us which markets sort of did well, did better, and maybe if there are some, maybe one that did worse. Would the performance in P1 for the U.S. and Europe, has sort of changed your thoughts around rationalizing or potentially rationalizing your growth plans outside of the U.K.? Would you know, have a view to or through your results?
Let me go step by step. On the first one, normally we don't give this level of details. Let me give you, if you want, a little bit of a general overview without getting into the details. Obviously, we see some countries ups and down. In Europe, we have implemented in some of the countries as a result of the program that I was mentioning before of revisiting our profitability by country. Some measures in the countries where the measures are having more, let's say, other ones, then obviously the impact on performance have been a little bit more severe. Overall, what we see is that the core countries are performing very well, and that is very encouraging.
It's very good to see that the relevant countries in terms of size in Europe are having a very good performance as a whole. The second question that you were telling me about, if this evolution has changed our thoughts. Well, basically what we have done is we have put in place a program to make sure that the majority of the countries where we are operating, and not a lot, but is not, have a proper contribution in terms of profit. The program has only started, so it's a few weeks in place, so it's early to draw conclusions yet.
Obviously, if we see that countries can have a solid performance, there is no point in closing a country that is giving us a lot of profitability or solid profitability. This is something that it is still early to conclude. If we see that change, of course. If we don't see that change, then we will have to take our program of change in those countries to a different step, as we indicated. As we said back in October, there are no sacred cows. There is no point in taking an extreme measure before trying other measures. If the first program of measures don't have the impact we want, then we'll have to go further.
I know that's what you were looking for, Nicolas.
Yeah, that's really helpful. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Emily Cooledge of Redburn. Emily, please go ahead.
Hi. Morning. just wondering around the balance sheet and the cash? You've given us the cash and undrawn facilities number of GBP 430. Could you give us an idea of where you are in terms of net debt, either at the end of this period or where you expect to be at the end of the first half?
We haven't given that number, but it will be on. Of the numbers that we've given, it should be at circa GBP 200 million of cash outflow in H1, which, you know, in a very rough way, we can add on to the net debt at end of year one.
Okay, great. That's helpful. Thanks.
Refer to.
That's Emily, if I may, because I follow, that is pretty much in line with the normal shape of our of a year for us. We always have more of a cash outflow in the first half of the year that we recover during the second half. If anything, we are a little bit ahead of our initial expectations. That's one of the reasons, not the only one, we're pleased with the development of the right change agenda, because we're seeing that is reacting better than what we expected. The shape of the evolution is pretty much in line with the normal evolution of the business.
Okay, great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Our next question comes from Emily Johnson of Barclays. Emily, please go ahead.
Morning. I've got a couple of questions. The first of which is, in terms of the U.K. performance in P1, what gives you confidence that those issues are, and the kind of underperformance is more one-off in nature versus prolonged? For example, have you seen any improvement into January versus December as some of the delivery issues ease? The second question is, in terms of your inventory position, can you give a bit more color on that? For example, what is the current composition of autumn/winter 20202022 versus spring/summer 202023 inventory within that? How much is left to clear? The third question, which is related to that, is it looks like you've done GBP 90 million of the write down in P1. Can you talk about how much is left to go in P2?
Is it closer to GBP 10 million or GBP 40 million? In terms of the P1 write-down, are you able to give us how much revenue is associated with that stock clearance and whether there are any geographical concentrations to be aware of or whether it's the same mix as the group? Thanks.
Okay. Sorry, I'm writing down. There was a lot of questions. Let me go step one by one. Let me take the first and hand it over to Katy. You were talking about the U.K. and our confidence on how things are gonna change. Well, here, I think we have to make a not only about talking about the U.K., but in general, make a difference between revenue and gross margin or profit or whatever you wanna call it. Obviously, we see that the markets are very volatile. Our expectation is that they're going to continue very volatile. The, this volatility has been bigger in the U.K.. Whether this is going to continue, it's difficult to anticipate. But what we're expecting is that this volatility will continue during the rest of the year.
The delivery disruptions that we were mentioning seem to be easing, they are not entirely over. I don't think they are the end of the volatility. That's why we are preparing the company, and that's why we, I keep on referring to this agenda and the profitability to be able to, let's say, to deliver the level of profitability we want. That is our obsession, and it is where we're focusing a lot of the effort. We are seeing that we are holding our share in the first weeks of the year. That is important for us, which means that our competitive approach is relevant for consumers.
Obviously, the evolution of the market, I think it's gonna be uncertain. As I said, sorry to repeat myself, but I think volatility is gonna be here for longer. Do you wanna take one of Inventory?
Sorry, can you repeat the question on inventory?
If you could give them more color inventory-wise, it's autumn, winter, spring, summer.
Not in that much detail, but we can understand.
There was the question about the GBP 90 million of the write off and if there is more to come during P2.
Yeah.
How are we going to allocate the revenue coming from this stock, and if there's any geographical concentration. Did I understand your question properly, Ebony, or not?
Yeah. Yeah, that's it.
Perfect. Thank you. In terms of your question is pretty slightly on stock position, perhaps the only set around that sort of, I would say, circa GBP 100, is the balance. The range that we've given is GBP 100-GBP 130, but some of that was actually extraction costs from warehousing. From a stock position point of view, like half year, circa GBP 100. And in terms of revenue so far, it is absolutely material, and we will obviously give more clarity on that at the half year.
In terms of geographical concentration, I think it's pretty much everywhere. It's more or less spread as our stocks are. No, it's not concentrated on any specific warehouse or location.
Okay.
Our next question comes from Simon Irwin of Credit Suisse. Simon, please go ahead.
Morning, all. A few quick ones for you. Is there any update on the CFO replacement hunt with Katy off shortly? Also, if you can just give us a sense of when we can expect the kind of strategic asset allocation review to start. Then second question would be around the clearance. Firstly, have the brands made any comments about your kind of method of clearance? How's it gone in terms of the GBP 90 million, kind of using a third-party channel? Is this something, do you think, that you might choose to use in the future, you know, as to kind of effectively kind of keep clearance and discounting off the main site as much as possible?
Let me take it one by one, Simon. On the CFO, obviously, we are taking this process very seriously. Let me recap a little bit on this process because I was expecting that question. I mean, I read it so by the way. This is a process that we started in October, more or less, because it takes time to screen the market before you formally start the process. We have been three months on it. We don't want to rush in this process. We wanna make sure that we see the right amount and the right level of people. That's why we are doing it in a very, let's say, without rushing.
Let me use that word. Obviously, we're moving at pace and as soon as we have something to share with you, we will. As we have done today with the addition of Christoph, that we are absolutely delighted and we are sure that he's coming to ask our name in a very relevant way. The second question you ask, I'm not sure if I understood it properly, the asset allocation review. I'm understanding that you refer to the U. Is that correct as well?
You've never really specified where the asset allocation review would happen, but that's the most obvious kind of area of focus, I guess.
Okay. No, sorry. I was trying to make sure that I was asking the right question and not another one. As I said before, the first thing we have done is that we have put in place this program to boost the profitability in all of our major operations. We want to make sure that we have enough evidence that the program is working or not. It's gonna take still some months until we have this evidence. And making a decision before that would be probably too fast and without the necessary fact-based, let's say, evidence to make that decision. So we're gonna give ourselves at least these few months to make sure.
That doesn't really mean, as I said, that we're doing nothing. We have already put in place a very comprehensive program covering more than 60 countries. It's not that we are waiting for a miracle to happen. It like, we wanna make sure that before taking these more, I don't know if the word is draconian, but certainly more definitive measures, we are clear on it. Finally, you ask about the clearance. How's it going? It's going well. I mean, we have already pretty much extracted from our warehouses 50% of the stock, which is quite remarkable. We are moving really fast.
We're using some third parties that we were using before, and let me just take with an example. We have, for instance, a very good relationship with Nordstrom, so the racket is one of the partners that we were using before, but we are also establishing relationships with new partners. In that sense, yes, we will use some of these relationships in the future for sure, because our ambition is to... That this new commercial model makes sure that when a, let's say, when an item is not relevant for consumers anymore, then we will not be keeping it in our operations for too long. Which means that we wanna make sure that we focus on full price and newness and consumers are exposed to the perfect assortment.
Yes, we will use that. We will use some of these new relationships in the future, obviously with a significant smaller volume. That's sure.
Great stuff. Thank you.
Thank you, Simon.
Our next question comes from Andy Wade of Jefferies. Andrew, the line is yours.
Thanks very much. Morning. The first one on, just to go back to net debt, just to be sort of blunt on it, you've got GBP 500 million of convertibles, GBP 400 million RCF fully drawn, and GBP 430 million of cash. That implies GBP 470 of net debt. Is that, does that math broadly right?
Not quite. On the convertible, not all of that is debt.
Yeah, cool. Yeah.
Secondly, sort of, the RCS is, if you go back, isn't quite as high as you've got. I've got about GBP 350, in terms of going into that net debt calculation. I think you should a little bit high.
It's not fully drawn.
GBP 50 million of the RCS isn't drawn now. There's the portion of the convert, which is, I mean, ultimately it's obviously gonna end up being debt. That is not at the moment accounted for. We're talking maybe what, sort of, GBP 75 million off that net debt. Around the GBP 400 million mark. Is that the sort of quantum we're looking at?
That I think is right. Exactly.
Right. Okay. Okay. Thanks very much. second one, in terms of, the profit optimization plan, as you've sort of begun, enacting it so far, what concrete customer-facing measures have you put in place? pricing, increases, delivery charges. Could you run through some of the biggest changes you've made there?
Sure. Sorry. Now. Sorry, Andrew.
No problem.
Now, so well, obviously we have reduced price, that means reviewed, sorry, pricing. Pricing is not only full price levels but also markdown levels. That is one of the things we have done. We have reviewed premium pricing as well, and the pricing of our delivery services, and delivery services could be next day delivery, standard delivery, thresholds, could be all of that. More importantly, we have one lead with a geographical lens, which means that not everybody is receiving the same treatment. In some countries, it's one treatment. In some countries, a different treatment. We have added a certain brand lens to it, which means that some brands are prominent in some geographies and not in other geographies.
We have stopped selling some brands in some geographies, or we have completely stopped trading some brands as we indicated. We have also applied that lens on our promotional efforts. That is important, if I may, because when you put the three things, the three axes together, it could be that certain brands in certain promotion, or in certain locations are not promoted anymore, or certain brands are not promoted anymore. It's like we are really starting to focus on this, the offering relevant stuff to our consumers so that it can be sold at full price. In some cases, we might be over-promoting, and that was damaging our gross margin. I don't know if that is
That's helpful. Is there anything you can share in terms of sort of average increase to Premier pricing or average increase to delivery charge across the markets or anything along those lines?
I don't have this data on the top of my head, to be honest, Andrew. For our Premier, we have increased in many geographies, not the same. For instance, in the U.K., we have increased Premier prices, but also in the U.S., also in Continental Europe. An average number, to be honest, you're, you're getting me here. I don't have the number on the top of my mind.
Sure.
Sorry.
Okay. Yeah, no, that's, that's cool. Okay. All right. You sort of referred to it in your sort of in-intro, introduction element, where you were talking about rest of the world minus 10%. You noted when you were talking about the decline there that there had been changes in the delivery proposition. I guess what my question is, are you seeing a customer reaction, as would be implied from linking the two together? Are you seeing a customer reaction, on revenues from the changes that you've made, in delivery, Premier, and so on?
Well, we have seen some demand weakening in some softer reaction, softer performance of consumers in some of these smaller geographies. Difficult to make a split between which part of it is coming from our action and which part of it is coming from the evolution of the market. Our hypothesis is that part of it might be coming from it. As we said, we wanna make sure that all our geographies have a correct level of profitability. Having a geography that is selling really fast, but is loss-making, makes no sense. This is precisely what we are correcting.
Yeah. Okay. All right. Thanks very much.
I'm sure you have an impact if you want.
Sorry. Can I just make sure something clear from one of the previous questions. In terms of us getting to the right net debt, the number that we've been considering is in cash and undrawn facilities. You do need to take off the total RCF, but to be clear, we have not fully drawn the RCF.
Yes, of course. Really you're just taking off from the calculation I did at the beginning. We're just taking off the portion of the combo, which is the sort of non-debt part of it, if you like, the equity part of it. Is that right?
Yes. From the point of view, from the calculation point of view, what you concluded was right. I think you might have made the point that we were fully drawn on the RC, which we're not. We just wanted to make sure that point was really clear.
Okay.
From the calculation. Yeah. If there's any further confusion, happy to go through it in space. I'm offline.
Yeah. No, no, that's fine. Thanks.
Thank you.
Our final question will come from John Stevenson of Peel Hunt. John, the line is yours.
Thank you very much. I'll be very slow on the trigger this morning. Morning, everyone. A couple of questions just on start with cash generation. Just thinking in terms of what's happening to working capital inflows coming into next year, where you expect stock levels potentially get down to. Also you flagged lower CapEx. Just want to make sure we're still expecting or you're still planning on that sort of sub-GBP 200 million CapEx coming through next year. Second question, I don't know if you can comment on Topshop versus the underlying U.S. retail performance. Finally, I know it's very early days, but the dropship stuff, I don't know if it's how much is larger brands versus localization, but has been any impact in terms of the performance of those brands that are now dropshipped?
Just to clarify the first part of your question, you say next year.
sorry, yeah, sorry, into full year 2024, fiscal year 2024, I guess where do you see your, you know, I assume we're obviously looking at continued working capital inflows and efficiency into next year.
we're not giving guidance on FY2024 today.
Okay. I mean, okay. I mean, from a obviously thinking about, you know, free cash flow into next year, it's fair to say you're obviously assuming you're gonna be delivering more working capital efficiency into next year.
I think what we said at year end was that our commercial model and operating model benefits will only partially be hitting H2. We would expect to see the balance of them in 202024. That would be consistent with what you're saying.
Okay. Thank you.
you wanna say on Topshop?
Yes, please.
And
Yeah, if you could just comment on Topshop and also the underlying retail performance in the U.S.
The underlying in the U.S. Sorry, this part I missed. On Topshop, I mean, we're not giving specific numbers at this level for P1, but we continue really happy with Topshop. We see a very strong performance and we are totally convinced it was the right decision and still overachieving the level of performance that we had in mind when we went for the acquisition. Underlying performance of the U.S., I'm not sure if you're asking me for Topshop or retail. I mean, Topshop.
Retail, sorry. Yeah, retail performance.
We explained retail. We don't, do we? What we see is that the, as we said, the major part for the drag was because of the slow in the U.S. The slow wholesale performance. You can get that.
We were, just to give a little bit more color, we were flat on retail excluding that the hotel number.
Okay, brilliant. That's perfect.
Your question. I think also that you were asking about the dropship and large brands versus localized brands. Obviously, I mean, we are very happy. We have gone from 2 to 2023 are still a small number. We said that we want to take more brands into that. Right now, the vast majority of what we have is with brands that were already in our portfolio. You can already imagine that a big chunk of them are medium, big brands. The performance is really satisfactory. What we're seeing is that these brands are overperforming. No, it's not that it is creating a cannibalization that when we're selling in dropship, we're not selling that in retail.
The size of the pie is growing. We are really happy with that. And so are they. I think when I did with the ones that I have talked to, I have not talked to the 2023, to be honest, but with the ones that I have talked to, they have been very satisfied with the evolution of the program, and they see it as a very good tool to enrich the relationship because it's not either/or, it's and in many cases.
Okay, brilliant. I think thank you. Okay, thanks. Thanks a lot.
Thank you, John.
With that, I'll hand back to the management team for any closing remarks.
Sorry. As I said, sorry for the continuous coughing. Thank you very much for your time. I know it's a really, really busy day. I'm not gonna take a lot of your time. Just appreciate your time and interest. I'm looking forward to talking to you in our next update in half year. Have a nice day.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.