I'm here, I'm here in Liverpool, and speak with Mike, and we have Dave McCarthy as well on the call. So I'll just kick off with a couple of minutes, highlights to give you a bit more color from me, and then we can go straight into Q&A. So look, I am pleased how the business has traded in the key quarter, LFL 1.2%, as you know, to December the thirtieth. I will just highlight two or three bits of why I feel it's been a strong, profitable performance. So similar to half one, half of that LFL performance was positive transaction numbers. And that's pretty much the same dynamic that we had in half one. And actually, what that means is that the level of inflation is virtually nonexistent in that LFL number.
And that actually, we can see that in terms of volume, you know? If, if I look at the level of our logistics and warehousing at B&M UK during the Golden Quarter, actually, we have shifted higher volume year-over-year, quarter-over-quarter, compared to prior year. So the volume in the business has, has performed very well. That has driven the LFL transactions, and fundamentally, the two sides of the business have remained in nice balance. I am very pleased with general merchandise in the Golden Quarter. It's been comfortably ahead of 51% of sales, to give you some idea in terms of sales participation. And there are some categories that have performed incredibly well.
I mean, I'm not going to get into too many numbers, but just to give you three or four of them on general merchandise that have been either mid-single digit positive LFL or almost, in some of them, double-digit LFL. So homeware, a key category, high single digit at positive LFL. Paint has been particularly strong. I suspect we have taken quite a bit of market share from Wilko. Paint specifically, actually, was almost 20% LFL, so I'm very pleased about that. DIY, very strong. Stationery, very strong. So overall, general merchandise performed well. I mean, the volume was shifted profitably, it was positive, and the FMCG side was also very strong in the quarter.
You know that on an underlying basis, whether it's against last year or two, three, four-year LFL basis, 1.2% LFL is the strongest quarter this financial year on an underlying basis. It's pretty much what I expected we could do when we last met in early November. Pleased about that. The key message for me, volumes were positive year-over-year, and that has actually leveraged the whole cost base of the business nicely. A second point, which actually, I'm very pleased, standards, it's a second Christmas I've traded now on this journey. The business continued to step on in terms of availability, very strong. The teams on the ground, very engaged, have awarded a high proportion of store managers their extra incentives that we have spoken in the past.
So the mood and the tone in the business is very, very good. And actually, on a soft measure, I'm also pleased to say that this is the second consecutive year in a row that my retail staff turnover, that's people, actually materially decreases year-on-year. So the level of retention in the business is actually quite strong. Property, I am upgrading, as you know, the level of openings at B&M UK. This year, we're going to open 45 stores to March. The other two years remain unchanged, so no less than 45. And to give you some color on the 45 of this year, roughly, that's almost 1 million sq ft of selling space that we are laying out in the UK, B&M, and that excludes garden centers, you know.
So that, that's a hell of an opening program, and the quality of those shops are in pretty good, are in pretty good shape. The two smaller businesses are trading well, confidently. So in summary, we're exiting the quarter where I wanted to be. I will continue to shoot for the higher end of the range. That remains unchanged, as we spoke back in November. And look, it's all, it's all in good, in good form, heading into the next financial year, you know? So high-level summary, and we can go straight into questions.
Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the clearing roster. This will take a few moments. Now we're going to take our first question. It comes from line of David Trew from Bank of America. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Morning, Alex, Mike, and Dave. Just three questions from my side. Just going back to your point on the new stores this year, can you tell me how many you will close across the regions? And then the second point is on freight. Can you talk about the potential impact from higher freight spot prices? Perhaps you remind us how long your contracts are and how big freight costs are to the group. And then just some more detail on the 14 weeks for the period versus 13 last year, and is this a vanilla comparison? And if so, can you explain that? Thank you.
... Hi, David. Yes, so the first question, think about 45 gross opening. That's roughly 1 million sq ft. I will probably be closing very small, tiny ones, which is normal part of the relocation, probably in the order of 10-11 for the full year. That's minimal in terms of footage. That's normal in terms of our recycling of assets. So all of this is accretive, as normal. In terms of freight, look, we have a good contract in place, as you know. We are not really exposed. Clearly, we continue to monitor the situation, but I can confidently say that the flexibility we have in our supply chain and contracts, I don't expect any impact for us in terms of availability on shelves. We have sufficient headroom in terms of buffers and timings.
Basically, the stock is moving exactly where it needs to be. I'm comfortable with that. The stock is flowing nicely, we have the right line of sight in terms of flexibility, so it's business as usual for us. Look, the supply chain for us is very resilient. We shift volumes. We're always first in the queue. We've proved that pre, during, and post-pandemic. Remind me, David, your third question. I don't know if I answered it.
Yeah. So it's just a bit of color on the calendar impact and 14 weeks versus 13 last year.
Yeah, this is actually quite straightforward. So the reason why I'm quoting 1.2 14 weeks is that, Christmas Eve was in Q3 last year, and basically, it falls into Q4. It's not the main date for us. We tend to peak earlier, basically in the run-up to Christmas. If you look at the research note of Warwick Okines, he's probably on the money, in terms of his assumptions. The two are not that different. So 1.2 14 weeks for me is the underlying LFL performance on a comparative basis. Okay?
Thank you.
Thank you, David. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes from the line of Jonathan Pritchard from Peel Hunt. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Good morning, gents. The standard three, if I may. On the new stores, the site new ones that you're opening, 45, not slightly less this year. What's happened there? Is that just a few more Wilko's perhaps? Well, you've agreed terms with landlords on that, and that's come forward, and then you're just sort of filling in at the far end. Just why is that sort of year one number a bit higher than we thought? Perhaps a bit more color on France, both from a new store opening pipeline and a sort of current trade perspective, just a bit more skin on the bones there. An easy one for Mike, just, you know, why now for the special?
Hi, Jonathan. Yes, you are right. I think Wilko is coming nicely together. I think we're well advanced on the negotiations. I think 45 is a good number. I always try to underpromise a bit and overdeliver if I can. That's what we have done. I'm confident now that we have good line of sight, and I think those 45 fundamentally puts us in a very strong position, Jonathan, heading into the next financial year, you know. Operationally, I think we can handle it well. They are the right sites, and it doesn't compromise the ambition we have for the next two financial years. France is trading nicely. I think the guys have had a good execution in the Golden Quarter. The business trading well, both FMCG and General Merchandise.
They have exited, again, very clean, the same as us at B&M UK. So the guys are confident heading into Q4, you know. 11 store openings is good, you know, and I'm going to increase the number, you know, with discipline into the next financial year, as always. Mike, and in terms of, the question from Jonathan?
Yeah. So on the special dividend, Jonathan, as you know, we're through the key trading period for the year. As Alex has already said, the stock position that we're exiting that period with is very clean, and that means the cash generation to the business has been as good as expected. We've got a discipline in terms of our capital allocation approach. So we're returning excess capital to our shareholders with the aim of staying in our 1-1.5 times target operating range at the end of the financial year on an underlying basis, and leverage will be flat on an underlying basis at the end of the financial year.
Thank you, Jonathan.
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes to line of Richard Chamberlain from RBC. Your line is open, open. Please ask your question.
Hi, good morning, Richard.
Hello, Alex. Happy New Year to you. Yeah, a couple from me, please. What's your assessment of how the sort of collapse of Wilko impacted B&M and the discount sector sort of during the quarter? Was it overall, you know, maybe a bit of a negative because of the amount of promo and disruption going on? I'd just be interested in that. And then, second, I think you called out homewares in your opening preamble. You called out homewares, and I think in particular, paint as being very strong categories. But were there any categories where you felt you could have done with a bit more stock over peak, or was actually the stock position pretty robust through the period? Thanks.
Yeah, good questions, Richard. So look, Wilko is too small to make any material impact for us, I think, where they were particularly strong, homewares, stationery, paint. I suspect that we have taken a good share of that, and we're going to, and we're going to dial that up even further heading into next financial year. Look, there was noise. They were clearing a bit, but at the end of the day, it's a GBP 1 billion-plus business and a GBP 200 billion-plus, as you know, consumer market. So it's not, it, it's not big enough to make a dent. But in some of those sites that basically we are opening, I think we're going to dial up on those traditional categories quite hard. So that gives me quite a bit of confidence that general merchandise continues to trade fairly robustly. On stock, no, we're fine.
We've exited clean. I wouldn't have bought any more. You've heard me before, we're always going to buy to trade positive LFL. I don't, I don't buy to shift, or to trade inflation, I trade volume. I've made it clear that, Golden Quarter, the volumes we have had compared to prior year, have been positive. So the quality of that LFL, which is measured on transactions and units moving through our network, is what leverages the business, you know?
Look, if you take the high end of the range at GBP 630 million, and you know that I don't shoot for the midpoint, I mean, let's remember, guys, that in the last year before the pandemic, this business used to make GBP 330 million-GBP 340 million pounds, you know, and the business has been able to structurally increase its level of profitability through volume, you know. So, no, I was happy with the stock position.
Okay. Thanks a lot.
Thanks, Richard.
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes to the line of Adam Cochrane from Deutsche Bank. The line is open, please ask your question.
Hi, good morning, Adam.
Hi, good morning to you. Two questions, if I can. Firstly, on the performance of food, you called out General Merchandise in there, but not much of a mention of food. I can assume that if you called out General Merchandise, food has maybe been slightly weaker. Is this reflecting a comparison issue from last year, or a decision maybe to focus on margin rather than sales performance in the food category? Just a little bit of a discussion on the food side.
Secondly, looking at the wages and costs into next year, can you just remind us on whether you have to pass through all of the, let's say, 10% or so minimum wage inflation, or you have some kind of buffer that your wages are already above it and we won't necessarily see the whole 10%? Thanks.
Thanks, Adam. Look, FMCG has performed very strongly on volume. We are very sharp on EDLP. I'm very happy with the price position. We don't get into any high-low loyalty dynamics. It's pure price. The volumes have been positive, the LFL has been positive, and any suggestion that I would actually not drive that side of the business, no, it's not what we do. The business is in balance, the two sides of the business, and it has performed nicely. I would bring it back to the quality of the LFL. That LFL is leading in terms of volume. I am not moving inflation, and that shows in the bottom line. So I'm comfortable with the performance of the two.
The one that surprised me, actually, how strong it was, so the two performed well, but general merchandise was very strong, as well, which is an important point, which tells me, Adam, if the price is sharp, availability and standards are fine, the consumer sees that, and the consumer votes with the feet. In terms of national minimum wage, look, it's the same dynamic as this year. We will always have a productivity plan in place. It's not going to fundamentally change our cost ratios, and the business, B&M UK, will continue to trade every year in the 12%-13% EBITDA margin. I never shoot for the 12%, I always shoot for the higher end. And basically, the fundamental difference between those two points is the level of markdown.
So, no, I think the cost lines and the cost to sell are going to be good. If you take logistics as an example, in the current year, those inflationary inputs have been in place, but the level of productivity of the business is where it needs to be. And why is it where it needs to be? Again, it's because we're moving boxes, and we're not moving inflation. That creates a lot of fixed cost leverage in the business. This is a volume game. Okay?
Yeah. In terms of that food performance, if the overall is around +1% and general merchandise is positively surprised, we're saying that if food is still a positive like-for-like number, there can't be much difference between the two. Is that reasonable?
I'm not going to give you the exact LFLs of the two numbers. You know, we don't disclose that. The baseline of last year was very high. At one point, 2%, what I can tell you is that the two have performed well, and FMCG was particularly strong as well in terms of volume. I think I'll keep coming back to the point. There is no inflation oxygen on that number.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you, Adam.
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes to line of Nick Coulter from Citi. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Hi, Nick. Good morning.
Hi, good morning, and Happy New Year. Just a couple, if I may, please. Just on UK space, would you be able to share the UK space impact on either a kind of a 14-week or a 13-week basis, please? And then perhaps confirm how many UK stores you anticipate opening in the fourth quarter. And then a follow-up, if I may, just on the outlook. I think that at the half, you talked to needing a low single digit like-for-like to hit the guidance range. Does that still broadly hold true for the fourth quarter? As I guess, you're kind of running into a much softer compound on whichever basis you want to look at it. Thank you.
Yeah, you're right. I think Q4 base is going to be lower, so that gives me confidence that we're going to trade well. So I shoot for the top end, but let me trade Golden Quarter. The entry position is good. And it's a softer base, so that's a big tick, and it's not just the LFL dynamic, but margin entry because of the clean stock position is in good nick. So I think we're going to have a strong Q4. In terms of openings, it's 45 for the year. It's a big opening program in Q4. I mean, broadly speaking, we're going to open close to 20 shops in Q4.
Okay. I mean, that, that's a material ramp. It sounds like you've got the teams in place and the capability to do that.
Yeah.
And how do you think about that going forward, given you've got that capability to open significantly more, it would seem?
I don't want, I don't want to keep them at that level on every quarter. I think because standards and availability and the, and the cultural balance of the business is in good shape, it gives me a lot of confidence that it's doable. But I'm very happy with 45, not less than each of the two financial years. Look, I'll keep bringing it, you know. I'll always put a fairly a conservative, doable number. I might squeeze two or three or four, depending on the year, if the opportunity presents. But the 45 next year, look, it's not going to be 70. It might be 47, it might be 52, but it's not, it's not less than that, but it's, it's not miles off. And I think that's the right balance, yeah?
So it's all around the discipline of the operation and the property side of it. So look, it's been a good year. I think we have landed the Wilko transaction into operational implementation well. We haven't rushed it. We have a knee-jerk trying to open too quickly and just cutting corners by not negotiating. It's been done properly, and, you know, it's in good shape.
Very helpful. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes to the line of Hannah Abd-El-Rahman from Berenberg. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Good morning, thank you for that. Just very quickly from me, so obviously the recent footfall data in the UK has been quite weak. Do you see that impacting you at all? Do you think it will have an impact on your like-for-likes or anything like that? And also, could you give any more commentary around the market share gains that you briefly mentioned?
Take the word, I'm going to reply in a positive way. I don't look at that data because that data tells me nothing about volume. It's an inflated value label of number. I concentrate on my LFL, which is volume driven. What the competition does in terms of volume and in terms of inflation, it's up to them. I think the judge ultimately is on the bottom line. B&M is a volume business. That's what leverage the cost base. That's what we have executed, and we will continue to execute. Heading into next year, I'm very comfortable that we're going to trade on positive LFL. The two sides of the business are trading well, the volume and the price is there. Availability is rock solid, and we'll continue to take share from the higher price on competitors.
So whatever the consumer does, the consumer continues to be under pressure. It plays to our business model. We're just going to do it with discipline.
Thank you very much.
Next question, please.
Yes, of course. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes to the line of Paul Rossington from HSBC. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Hi, good morning. Good morning, Alex. Happy New Year. Two from me, please. Actually, can you talk maybe perhaps a little bit about what you might expect in pricing to happen to pricing next year on food and GM? And kind of aligned to that, the second part of the question is... We're seeing kind of Asda have come through the new kind of price match campaign announced last week to rival Aldi and Lidl. We all know that Tescos and Sainsbury's are matching the discounters on an increased number of lines. But I'm thinking of, just is there a bit more competition on the discount activity and this price matching? Does that is that affecting you at all, or is that just not affecting how you're running your FMCG business? Thank you.
I'm not, I'm not seeing any impact on FMCG, Paul. My price index remains exactly unchanged as it's been over the last two or three years. I'll bring it back, Paul, we're EDLP. We don't inflate the prices on the headline level to basically match it back on post loyalty club card. The competition can decide how they play that game. We're EDLP, and we're going to back it up with volume. So no, I'm not seeing any competition, and we're not going to let them breathe either. So I'm happy with the volume performance. I'll bring it back to the quality of the LFL, its boxes and volume.
Thank you.
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes from the line of Ben Hunt from Investec. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Hi, Ben. Good morning. Evening, just two questions. Firstly, I mean, has there been a category that's been the poor guy? You've mentioned many that have done very well, but it seems by arithmetically, one or two probably haven't done as well. And then the second question is, your inventory being flat, you've alluded to points of LFLs next year in terms of volume. Again, Q4, you've got quite a material ramp up in Q4 store openings, and then obviously store openings for next year being front-end loaded. So, to what extent should we not be concerned that you're gonna be left threadbare with stock, or is this just really an indication of how flexible your supply chain has become in recent years?
Yep. So in terms of general merchandise, they have performed in line of what I expected, given the prior year LFL. None of them have been different to the level of open to buy expectations I had. Toys would be a good example. I think the UK had a more challenging toys environment. Despite that, we performed very well, but on a very high LFL basis, you know. So in terms of buy and sell through, they perform in line where I expected in terms of the buy. And in terms of, look, heading into next year, the volume is there. The supply chain is highly flexible. I don't expect any impact.
We have enough buffers in the system to make sure that we can trade well. The stock is at the right level, and I'm comfortable.
Sure. Thank you.
Thank you. Dear participants, just a quick reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad.
Next question, please.
Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes to the line of Paul Rossington from HSBC. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Just, just a quick follow-up from me, and apologies if it's been asked already, but, just given what you're saying on the call today, Alex, why not be a little bit more optimistic about the, the guidance for, for this year? That's my simple question. Thank you.
I only gave you that guidance in early November. I think it's a good guidance. I think I've said, and I maintain that I'm going to shoot for the top end of that. I'm not in the business of changing guidance up or down every six or eight weeks, Paul. That's not how we do it. It's a narrow guidance. I'm comfortable heading into Q4. Let me trade Q4, and we might, we might surprise. Let's see. I'm trying, I'm trying to run the business in here for the long run, rather than actually, being frankly, changing things every four to six weeks. So I'm comfortable on the guidance. I will keep shooting for the top end, you know, we're in good shape heading into Q4. Let's see where we are when we exit Q4.
Understood. Thank you.
And if I can add, one point, I think Mike said it nicely. The fact that we're handing over GBP 200 million of cash, I think really sends you the signals you need to know.
Thank you.
Thank you. There are no further questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Alex Russo, for any closing remarks.
Thank you, everybody. I think it's been good questions. Nothing from myself to add. Mike, anything else you want to add to the team?
No, it's very helpful. Thank you.
Have a nice day, everybody. Thank you for joining us. All the best. Bye-bye.
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may now all disconnect. Have a nice day.