Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Alex Russo, CEO. Please go ahead.
Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us. What we'll do today, I'll hand it over briefly to Mike for two or three minutes to set out a quick summary, and then I will take it over in terms of some more color, and then we can go straight into Q&A. So, Mike, with you.
Thank you, Alex. Good morning, everybody. So, look, I'm going to take the statement as being read and add a couple of key headlines that I'd touch on. The first point is that we've had a very profitable golden quarter that provides the right underpin to our full-year outturn that we're guiding to here. I think, secondly, critically, momentum has continued to build within our business. That's been driven by volumes and, in particular, the good performance that we've seen of our seasonal ranges, both in December but also as we begin sale in January. Diving into some details, we've narrowed the profit-outlook range to £620 million-£650 million. That, of course, compares to the £616 million that we delivered over 52 weeks last financial year. So today, we're trimming the top end of our outlook range slightly.
Critically, though, we are seeing the building momentum in like-for-likes in December and early January. Those have just taken longer to come through than perhaps the best-case outcome. And, in particular, the sale ranges that we launched in January have begun well. We've gone through transition well. We've got the right availability on shelf, the right stock to support this momentum continuing. And we've ended the period. We've ended December with a clean close-to-zero position on our seasonal range stocks. And, as you all know, this underpins our gross margins, looking both backwards but also looking at future trading periods. The final profit-outturn, as always, will principally depend on the timing of the start of the garden season, which actually starts to hit our shops from this weekend.
But with costs and margins in the right place to get to the middle of the range, we really require an undemanding like-for-like that we feel comes from a normally timed start to the garden season to the period. The final point I'd make here is that our balance sheet continues to be very healthy. So our borrowing maturities, first of all, now range from November 2028 onwards. We're going to end this year with leverage near the middle of the one to one-and-a-half times corridor that we normally operate within. And that is after payment of our increased ordinary dividend of 45% returning profits that we've pointed to before, but also the payment of a GBP 0.15 per share special dividend totaling GBP 151 million that we're announcing today.
So that will mean that over the last five years, we expect to have returned GBP 2.2 billion in total to shareholders through dividends. And, critically, though, taking into account that special dividend and increased ordinary dividend, our balance sheet will continue to be in a robust position that gives us the flexibility to take advantage of this current environment, whether that may be pockets of store leases or, indeed, share buybacks once the re-domicile process completes. So that's really all I was going to draw your attention to. I think, to conclude, there's a
key reminder. Firstly, we've exited the golden quarter in a strong profit position. Secondly, we are seeing that growing trading momentum that we touched on back in November, and that is underpinned by the volumes we're offering as a discounter. Finally, the cash generation continues, meaning that we're going to pay the GBP 151 million special dividend, and we're well set now to take advantage of opportunities coming from the environment. Alex.
Thank you, Mike. Good summary. So I will spend maybe five, six minutes talking about the customer, some of the dynamics I see in the market and throughout golden quarter for us, and actually, that sets the tone heading into calendar 2025. I think the best way to describe our golden quarter is probably two halves. The first half was weaker. The second half, I'm actually quite pleased in terms of the robustness of the performance. Look, I can speculate whether October was soft because of the budget, customer uncertainty. I mean, it's probably a combination of different things. But, clearly, in the transition from October, November, and December, and then into January, we have seen a very marked, straight-line, almost improvement on LFL performance. So let me give you some color on that.
December, which is the key period, four weeks, and the entry into January, we have seen positive like-for-like in the business, roughly to the tune of plus 1.5%. That's four weeks of December and entry into January, positive LFL to the tune of roughly 1.5%, there or thereabouts. So those LFLs have been basically, for me, incredibly encouraging because what it means is that the strategic investments we have made throughout the year in a very targeted way are already demonstrating the elasticity in the consumers. I'll expand on that. So if you remember what we did in Q2, we said home was the key reset in Q2. We drove the volume uplift both on an LFL and total basis.
So what we did in golden quarter, we basically, in a very targeted, planned way, one year in advance, we did the same for toys and Christmas seasonal, which basically includes home. So let me start with toys. Toys is the single most important general merch department we have in golden quarter. In fact, in size, toys is even bigger than garden in spring-summer. So I will use December and the entry into January, and you can assume total LFL roughly 1.5% or so, to give you the dynamic between the different parts of the business. You can assume that toys and Christmas seasonal in December had double-digit positive LFL, and volume was even faster than that double-digit positive LFL. So that has been absolutely key. We've put the right level of price investment. If you remember, we said roughly 5% in home on price improvements in Q2.
Across toys and Christmas, we planned one year ago, we've probably put to the tune of 3%-4% price reduction during golden quarter. So in those two categories, despite a strategic price investment, which hasn't cost us anything on margin, margin is very robust, of 3%-4%, we have delivered positive LFL in those core categories. And you can also assume, guys, that in December into January, general merchandise has been even stronger than the positive 1.5% LFL. So I'm very comfortable with the volume on how that part of the business has performed. On FMCG, let me just call what I said again in Q2, which is important. The level of inflation that we have on FMCG in golden quarter is zero, nil, which is actually the same as Q2. We don't rely on inflation on FMCG Q2 or Q3.
Despite having no inflation where the market has a high level of inflation, particularly in grocery, you can basically pick that from external market. The volume of FMCG has been robust and has been robust through December heading into January. In summary, we started with home in Q2. We've done the same in toys and seasonal Christmas during golden quarter, particularly heading into December peak and into January. The FMCG level of inflation two quarters in a row is zero. For me, the quality of that volume gives me a lot of reassurance heading into Q4 and next year. Okay? Mike said it. Our stock position is clean. Margin and profitability in the golden quarter has been very robust. Basically, we don't have, as we never do, any carryover of seasonal stock. That's, for me, a big take. Okay?
Opening program, briefly, I think it's in very rude health heading into FY26. More news to come in the new year, but you can assume confidently that the 45 openings for FY26 are very firm, and we will probably be opening maybe 12 in France versus 11 in the current financial year. So the pipeline and the quality of those sites are in good shape heading into the new financial year. Okay? So, to conclude, in terms of the color heading into 2025 calendar onwards, the strategic price investment that we have put in general merchandise over the last two quarters is now completed. We've done all what we needed. We've done it in a very planned way a year in advance. The supply chain from China has allowed us to do that. That hasn't incurred us any expense on gross margin.
Gross margin is very robust and continues to be so. Okay? And, actually, heading into the new financial year or even the calendar, I want to put it in print as I alluded back in the November results. We will not be inflating FMCG. We do not need to inflate. We do not need to rely on inflation. And the cost per activity, because of the volume we are moving and the gross margin trajectory we have into next year, allows us to manage the business in the right shape. I think we're well hedged into next financial year. Freight is going to be favorable for us next financial year compared to the last one. That's already in place from January onwards. We have long-term contracts. All of that is fine.
I think the shape of this is margin, and the cost base of the business is in good shape. General merchandise, I am very comfortable with the performance. We have taken volume, market share, units, and pounds, and in a total basis. The price investment that we have taken is completed. We don't have to do any more on general merchandise heading into 2025. And I reiterate, we do not rely on inflation on FMCG. That inflation has been nil two quarters in a row. And I can already detect in the market certain competitors are starting to inflate prices on
FMCG. That plays to our price position nicely. We will continue to do what we do, which is serve the customer as a discounter. We will lead in price with discipline. We have the supply chain to back it up. We're going to exit growing the bottom line in the current year and growing the bottom line again into the new financial year. I pause in there, and I'm happy now to open up to questions, guys.
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star 1, 1 on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 and 1 again. We will now take the first question from the line of Jonathan Pritchard from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.
Hi, Jonathan. Good morning.
Good morning, chaps. Standard three, if iImay . Firstly, could you just, I know you've given us a few building blocks, but could you perhaps quantify the volume in deflation in the -2.8%? That'd be kind. France was really eye-catching, but you didn't really mention it in any great depth. Just areas of strength in France and the eye-openers there. And just really your views on the consumer for 2025. I know you don't own a crystal ball, but how do you think the consumer will behave in 2025?
Thank you, Jonathan. Look, if you think about, so let's concentrate December because December, for me, is more representative of the quarter, Jonathan. I think the early start of the quarter, I think the consumer was nervous and volatile. So if you take roughly 1.4-1.5%, there or thereabouts, positive LFL in December and entry into January, you can assume that the inflation in FMCG is absolutely nil. And in terms of the core departments, to the tune of half of general merchandise, we have put basically 3-4% of price investment on toys and seasonal Christmas home. So if you blend that over, I think we have easily had, across the whole piece, 2% deflation or price investment. I want to call it deflation, Jonathan, it's price investment on a nominal LFL in December of positive 1.4%. So it just gives you a bit of a sense on volume.
Each category is different. I will concentrate on toys. Toys is a big one. Toys does drive the profitability, as is always the case for us in golden quarter. Look, let me give you one stat, and I don't want you to quote me too much because it's competitive. Jonathan, we have sold more than 10 million units of toys in December alone. 10 million. That's a hell of a big number. So that volume has been very, very strong, and I am happy with the supply chain pricing and cost prices in which we went into. In terms of France, look, France is performing nicely. I think France has already done all the necessary supply chain DC/IT investments. The business is trading profitably. France has its own challenges economically in a slightly different way, but not any lesser or higher than the UK.
The guys are trading profitably, and we continue to expand that growth. I've already started to disclose here on every quarter on LFL in France. I think it's a sizable business. I back it up. We'll continue to grow, so the plan is exactly what we have discussed. We'll continue to grow the business confidently and open an increasing number of stores every year. At this point in time, we can assume a good 12. There is a lot of distress in specialists in France. For example, GiFi, which is one of the classic ones. I mean, those guys are not quite in administration, but they are close to administration, so there is a lot of distress that you can see in France in the same way that you have seen it in here with Homebase, etc.
Look, and in terms of the consumer, I think I'm seeing what I was expecting to see. The U.K. consumer has had, for a number of years, Jonathan, a significant impact on real disposable income. As a discounter, we lead on price. We will always engineer the supply chain to give that price. Look, I'm very comfortable having had six months, two quarters, as an example of 0% inflation on FMCG. My price gap is very strong and strengthening as some of the competitors continue to inflate. I have put prices down 5% in home, planned 3%-4% on some of
those categories. We planned for this one year ago. We have to give the consumer basically price. And if a competitor, Jonathan, does not do that, the consumer will not forgive. You remember 2007/08 in the U.K. That was a nice example, actually, of why we need to lead on pricing. The beauty of our supply chain, Jonathan, is that we can do it whilst delivering very strong profitability and no impact on gross margins. We have the supply chain to do that. I hope that gives you some color.
Certainly does. Thank you very much. That's very clear.
Thank you, Jonathan.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Warwick Okines from BNP Paribas Exane. Please go ahead.
Morning, Warwick.
Thanks so much. Morning. So two for me, please, if I may. The first is, Alex, I think you sort of hinted that strategic investments in price might come in FMCG in the new year, or at least you said you're done in general merchandise, but you didn't mention FMCG. Could you sort of outline if you do have plans to make more targeted investments, but in FMCG this year? And would there be any benefit in sort of shouting louder about pricing in the year ahead? That's the first one. And then the second one.
If I can answer briefly the first one and you press the one, so I don't forget.
Sure.
So, the answer is we're done in terms of general merchandise. We've planned it for over a year in advance. So, my entry position is very robust on general merch. The volume is backing it up. So, I'm happy with that. Do I need to put any price investment on FMCG? No is the answer. So, what we will do on FMCG is for FY26, we're going to basically drive volume in certain sub-departments where we think we can do better. But I don't need to put pricing. The price position is very strong. I can already see not all of the competitors, but I can see many of them inflating. In fact, Warwick, it's not what I say. They have said it publicly themselves, both across grocery and non-food. So, that allows me a lot of headroom to play. Yeah? So, no, gross margins are steady on FMCG. The price position is good. I will just basically finesse the ranges where I think I can take more volume share. I hope that gives you color on the first question.
Yeah. I think it's that sort of how do you drive volume in certain departments is the bit I'm sort of driving at. Is that sort of new range introductions rather than lower pricing?
Yeah. I think we can always, I mean, look, it's a constant process. So, for example, if you take core departments in volume that have performed very well over a number of years, cleaning, pet foods continue to perform very well. I think we're going to be a bit sharper on health and beauty. So health and beauty is the one that we see a bit of newness coming in line over the next few months. But that's not at the expense of pricing. I think the margin position and the price gap is very strong. And that's on the backdrop, Warwick, where we haven't put a single pound on inflation for six months in a row on FMCG, and the price gap is very robust. So it suits me that many competitors are inflating. I'm cool with that.
Yeah. Understood. Thank you. And secondly, actually, just a simple one, really. You haven't said anything specific about working capital in the statement. Do you sort of stand by the working capital guidance you gave in November for an increase of no more than GBP 50 million in working capital at year-end?
The answer is yes, and Mike can elaborate.
So, Warwick, yes. I'd just re-emphasize that the guidance previously given stands, and you can see that in terms of the cash generation that we're generating and the capital that we're returning to shareholders.
That's great. Thank you very much, both.
Thanks, Warwick.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Richard Chamberlain from RBC. Please go ahead.
Morning, Richard.
Thank you. Morning, Alex. Happy New Year. Yeah, a few for me, please. So the first one's you talked about the stronger sales at the end of the quarter driven by planned promo in some key categories like toys.
Sorry, it's not promo. It's not promo. It's core pricing.
Okay. I just wondered then, do you think sort of customers were in sort of wait-and-see mode in categories like that and shopped very late once they saw those sort of good prices coming through? Is that the sort of trend you saw in the quarter? And I've just got a couple for Mike. I wonder how you're sort of set up on the potential dollar sourcing headwind we're seeing at the moment. I presume you're already well hedged for fiscal 26 on the FX. And are there any sort of timing effects around Easter we should be aware of in terms of working capital? And so it's a very late Easter this year.
Yeah. So I'll answer first. Cool, Richard. I'll answer first the first question, and I will hand it over to Mike. We haven't relied on any promotional activity. That's what we want to do. So basically, if you take the example of home, toys, or Christmas, so we buy for that. We buy it a year in advance. So basically, we go in as EDLP strong on price when we think it's the right time to do. The Christmas this year did come late. I think that's fairly, I mean, I think the consumer was under a lot of boredom, I think, generally speaking, in October. I think confidence for
the ones that executed well was probably on balance stronger in the second half of the quarter. That was certainly the case for us. But to answer your question, we haven't had to reduce prices or mark down anything to deliver the positive LFL in December heading into January. We bought for that. The consumer came, and we shifted that volume. And that's why if you walk into a shop today, you will see the January and spring, summer ranges coming in. Mike, the second question for Richard.
Yeah. So I think your first one was around dollar hedging. Our standard policy is to operate with nine to 15 months cover. That continues to be the case. The hedge rates we have are favorable year on year. And particularly, I think the bit I'd look at in the short term is that they're favorable as we look at the ranges that we're buying for golden quarter next year. Easter timing. So Easter's clearly a bit later this year. That's built into the guidance that we've given, both in terms of the profit outlook range, but also in terms of the working capital. And it does mean that we'll be carrying a little bit more stock. So things like shell eggs we'll have in stock still that last year we would have sold through. But that's part of the normal flow that we manage, and that's very much built into the guidance that we touched on earlier. The working capital will be no more than £50 million higher year on year.
Got it. Excellent. Okay. Thanks, guys.
Let me give you the context of that, guys, which I think is important. Stock is in a very clean position. Richard, if you go back to the end of FY24, from memory, I think our balance sheet stock position was virtually flat on the prior year. Some would argue that that stock level might have been at the beginning of the year a bit too tight. GBP 50 million is actually quite a good exit. As a percentage of sales or cover, I think we're going to exit the year very cleanly with the right entry availability heading into the new financial year.
Got it. Okay. Thanks, Alex.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Wayne Brown from Liberum. Please go ahead.
Morning, Wayne.
Morning, guys. Morning. Thanks for your time. I've got a few questions. I'll take them one by one, Alex. The first one, maybe I'm probably being stupid here, but you were hoping for positive LFL sales in this quarter. And I know you said earlier that it's coming through later, which is fine and understandable considering the backdrop. But if your stock's in a really good, clean position and you've taken volume market share, does that mean that price investment was more than expected? I'm just trying to join the dots, and maybe I'm missing something. But does that mean that you did invest more in price than maybe what you were anticipating originally or not?
The answer is no, because you will remember that we buy pre-price on general merchandise. We don't mark down, really. So basically, whatever price we end up selling at on general merchandise, we bought for that a year in advance. So GM is by and large buying pre-price. So if you use any sub-department, if we create a bit of vibe, let's say in the middle of December, we've made those buying price decisions one year in advance. So to answer your question, did we have to mark down in golden quarter or December to exit cleanly on an unplanned basis? The answer is no. So we exit cleanly with a very robust gross margin performance.
Okay. So then the -2.8% wasn't too much of a surprise to you then?
No, because the general merchandise was stronger than that. FMCG never creates any level of markdown because it's a short cycle. And the level of throughput that we had on volume and nominal LFL on GM wasn't a surprise. Again, if we use December as the key month, if you assume total company positive LFL of 1.4%-1.5% in December, you can assume that the LFL performance of general merchandise was higher than that.
So two more from me. France looks as if it's going really well, and you clearly commented that all the investment's done. Why are you not expanding France faster?
I think you will, at the risk of me sounding repetitive. I don't believe in fast rollouts. You've heard me that in the past. That business is performing well. We opened 10 one year ago. We're going to open 11. We're going to open 12 next year, and I think it protects the culture. I think this is a long-disciplined business. If you had asked me three years ago, would I ever assume that I was going to open 12 stores next financial year? I'm happy with that, so we'll continue to increase that. Look, maybe I come from a slightly different planet, Wayne, but I don't believe in fast rollouts. They end up in tears. History is not on the side of fast rollouts. You strain the culture.
Yeah. No, no, no. I mean, it just looks like you're closing the gap in the operating metrics with the UK. Obviously, 10, I understand, is quite sustainable. I was just wondering if we should read into that that you're not going to maybe 20. I'm not saying go to 60 or 70, but go to 20 or so sites a year, whether there's elements within the French model that needs improvement, that's probably just pausing that slightly greater ambition as to now is kind of what I was trying to get at.
I can see myself at some point. I don't want to give a date. I can see ourselves opening 15, 20, 25 per annum in France at the right time. That's not necessarily into the long grasp. But I am actually quite conservative. I like doing it in a very disciplined way. Look, look at the return on capital of the business. I'm not sure of many businesses that deliver in excess of 30% return on capital of the business. That's what underpins the cash generation of this business. Look, LFLs in some quarters will be stronger than others. But at the end of the day, as Mike said it, this is a highly disciplined business. We're in here giving great value to the customer in a disciplined way. We generate a lot of profit. We generate a lot of cash. Let me play the B&M DNA, which is discipline.
Yeah. Okay. No, no. Understood. Very clear. And then, sorry, just lastly from me, going into garden now, clearly higher AOV, etc., can you give any indication as to potentially if there has been any price movement in the range this year or any difference in the AOV that the range is selling for this year versus last?
I think you can assume on garden that we will be a similar dynamic as home toys on Christmas. Price will be very sharp. It will be less weather exposed, and the price and margin position will be very strong. So I think the key message is prices will be very sharp. They will be very competitive compared to the prior year, and it will be less external weather dependent. That's what I can see from now, say from now.
Great. Okay. Great. Thank you very much for your time.
Thank you, Wayne.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Kate Calvert from Investec. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning, Kate.
Good morning and happy New Year, everyone. Just a quick one for me. Within general merchandise, which were the more challenging categories within your mix, i.e., which areas were you not happy with? Thank you.
Oh, plenty. There are plenty of areas I'm very happy with. DIY, for example, would have had a good performance, but I don't expect DIY to fundamentally have a strong LFL in December. DIY comes to life February, March onwards. So the three that I'm very happy on GM are toys and home Christmas for sure. Some of the, for example, so DIY would have been okay, but I wouldn't have counted on DIY to drive the P&L on golden quarter. But there is always a timing effect. So, for example, a good example would be thermal essentials clothing. The really cold
weather basically started mid-December onwards or early December. It was fairly mildish in October and November. But without giving you any indication with the weather you have at the moment, I mean, those kinds of categories will be booming as we speak. You will have a bit of ins and outs, but on the ones that do matter, which are Christmas and toys, they were ahead of my expectation. Some of the more cold ones, I think as we speak right now, it's so cold that those categories will be basically performing nicely.
Okay. Thanks.
Sorry. And Kate, to do justice to your question, if you take again December or the entry into January total company LFL to the tune of 1.5%, you can assume that the total LFL on general merchandise is actually comfortably higher than that number and positive despite 3%-4% price investment. So you can infer the volume of that, okay?
Yep. That's clear. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Kate.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of James Anstead, sorry, from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Morning, James.
Good morning. Question for Mike and one for you, Alex. Alex, I appreciate this is only a very small part of the business, but Heron was quite a long way below what I was forecasting. Any color you give there in terms of why that was a negative sales number?
Yeah. It's a good question. I can answer it straight away, and then I'll pass it over to Mike. Without getting into a precise number, Heron is a fantastic example of actually why it's so important to take inflation out of selling prices. So if you go back to golden quarter, FY 2023 and 2024, and you roughly take, let's say, a two-year LFL, in those two Q3s, Heron on a two-year basis would have delivered an LFL of 25%-30% cumulatively over two years. So I'm not surprised about Heron. Those guys had a very high bar given the inflation that had the market in those categories. There is no inflation. We strip it out. Those guys are comping on a two-year LFL of not less than 25%. Hope that gives you some color, James.
Okay. Yeah. And then, Mike, you've mentioned a little bit of detail in the statement about the re-domicile process. You've clearly narrowed down your choice of destinations to Jersey and Ireland. I wonder, can you give us - you perhaps can't give us a precise date - but your best guess as to when the process might complete? And as a kind of follow-up to that, we've got used to January, as we're seeing today, with the special dividend being announced. That's the time when you talk about making surplus cash returns. Is that what we'd also expect in the future for buybacks, or might you be a bit more kind of opportunistic about timings on buybacks being announced? You can see what I'm driving at.
Sure. So in terms of the process overall, I think the detail that we give shows you the progress that we're making. We do have regulatory contact to make, which always makes giving certainty over timing more challenging. But that being said, that's a process that we've got a clear line of sight on. We're getting on with, and we don't anticipate this dragging on into the sort of medium or long term, this process overall. So we're getting on with it. And I think that links to really your sort of second question, which is to say that ultimately, we're making sure that our balance sheet is in a good shape to have the firepower to take advantage of opportunities. And I think we look at our company's shares as being a significant opportunity in this environment, this market. Does that change the timing of specials next year?
That's a long way away from where we are today, but I think what I'd go back to is, and say, "Look at the last five years. We've generated GBP 2.2 billion of excess cash that we've returned to shareholders." , and so I think we'd expect that ROIC model that underpins it to be unchanged, and we'd expect to carry on generating cash and returning it to shareholders in the right way.
Just to try and narrow you down a little bit more, things are at the start of 2025. Do you think this re-domicile is something that can be finalized in calendar 2025?
I will be disappointed if it's not done, James, in the first half of the calendar 2025.
Okay. That's helpful. Okay. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Charlie Muir-Sands from HSBC. Please go ahead.
Morning, Charlie.
Good morning, Alex. Happy New Year to everyone. Three questions for me, if you don't mind. The first is, have you seen any change in your customer demographics coming into your stores at all? The second question is, within your guidance, have you made any allowances for customer belt tightening over both January and over the year as a whole? And then finally, just on your dividend yield, sorry, on your dividend, just to confirm, you're expecting a 15% withholding tax leading to a dividend of about GBP 0.1275 for the shareholder. Is that all correct?
I'll deal with the third question first. So clearly, that depends on shareholders' individual tax positions. What the company will be paying out is GBP 0.15 per share to shareholders. There is Luxembourg withholding tax, but that's for shareholders to look at and deal with.
Thank you. Understood.
The question on the range, I'm shooting for the top end of the half of the guidance we have provided. So that's a combination of LFL, margin, and costs. So as Mike has said, from the 620-650, I'm shooting for the top end of that half. Remind me, Charlie, your first question. I lost you.
My first question was, are you seeing any changes in the customer demographics coming into your stores?
I think the robustness of general merchandise two quarters in a row in this environment, the volume we're driving and the positive LFL we're driving tells me that actually the middle-class consumer continues to trade down in general merchandise. So let me give you a bit of color on this. And guys, you can take this directionally rather than precise numbers. December, we could have easily been not far away from 55% sales participation, general merchandise versus total sales. That would have been comfortably higher than one year prior to. If you take the volume units, underpinning that is even stronger, and that mix between FMCG and general merchandise would have not been driven by FMCG having no inflation. So the messaging here, the robustness of the volume of general merchandise is very, very strong.
So to answer your question now, I think the consumer profile continues to be the same. I think I am seeing trade down on general merchandise. I think we're taking volume value market share on general merchandise. There's no question about that in my mind when I look at the data that covers home, that covers toys, that covers Christmas, more good ranges to come. I'm very comfortable with that. And then on the FMCG equation, we will continue to be absolutely rock solid on pricing, and we are not going to allow an inch of inflation.
Understood. Thank you very much.
Thank you, Charlie.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Vandana Sood from Citi. Please go ahead.
Hi. Morning, everyone. Thanks for taking my questions. I just had a follow-up on Heron, if possible. I think you'd guided to 18-20 store openings, and I think there's been five so far this year. So just wondering if they're going to be sort of a big strong opening program in the fourth quarter or if you're pulling that back a little bit, and then just another question. In terms of you've obviously got a compelling price point, especially if peers sort of start inflating. I was just wondering what you're doing or what actions you're taking into the next year to sort of really drive customers into the store and do advertising or whatever it is you need to do to sort of make consumers realize that that gap is actually better than it used to be or things like that. So yeah, that's awesome.
I'll answer the second question. Mike, do you want to answer the first one?
Sure. So I think we include the guidance in the statement of 17 stores. So yes, you're right. We've got a busy Q4 opening program. That means we're well set up for next year.
Perfect. Thank you.
To answer your question, we don't do marketing. We're an EDLP, low-price discounter. We protect integrity of our ranges and pricing architecture. If you take the midpoint of the range in the current year, GBP 640 million, very comfortable B&M UK, always in the corridor of 12%-13% every year. The consumer will require a price. That's what we do. We can do that because the cost base is very, very advantaged, both absolute and relative basis. The supply chain from China continues to give the cost prices that we need to provide. Look, the consumer is
actually quite smart. I am setting the LFL on next financial year, you've heard me before, into positive LFL nominal. But in reality, I'm driving the volume. So some competitors might want to push prices up. That's up to them. I do the opposite. We're a discounter. And actually, it's not surprising. This is where Dave might want to come in. In a minute, who are the only three major businesses that have said explicitly nothing around pricing, i.e., pricing is not going to go up, inflation is not going to happen, it's B&M, Aldi, and Lidl? Dave, anything you want to add on top of that?
No, I think you've got it covered that you're seeing inflation. It's always a mistake to compare where we are with supermarkets because, as you all know, we're general merch side that sells supermarkets. The ranges are very different, and people need to drill down into, is the inflation in fresh? Is it in FMCG? Etc., etc. But nothing really to add, Alex.
Thank you.
Brilliant. Thank you.
Thank you. We will now take the next question from the line of Adam Cochrane from Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.
Morning, Adam.
Good morning. Thanks for taking my question up front. Make it brief. In terms of the development over the quarter, would you be able to try and explain some of the dynamics between footfall and average basket size as we went through October, November, and then the recovery in December? Has the December recovery been driven by more footfall or basket size, please?
Good question. December was both positive LFL. Basket was very robust, flattish despite the price investment on general merchandise. October would have been the weakest point. I think the consumer was under pressure, but I think you can almost draw a straight line on footfall into positive all the way from mid-November to the end of December. Positive LFL baskets were very robust and steady. There was no decline on basket size in the second half of the quarter, and October, yes, was painful for sure.
With basket sizes staying broadly flat, but a much better performance of general merchandise within the mix, why do you think that hasn't driven a higher basket size?
Because the prices are lower. The basket has more units at lower prices.
Okay. Secondly, in terms of the.
Let me bring one example. It's a good question to bring it to life. Just don't take the-I mean, don't put this in print, guys, because this is competitive. Yeah? If you assume that we have sold roughly in excess of 11 million units of toys in December, you can assume that that number is at least.
Okay. On the second one, the sort of FMCG performance, I think, is probably a bit weaker than I would have expected given consumers are still looking to trade down to save money. Consumers are seemingly more appreciating your value in general merchandise. Why does that make you feel comfortable with your 15%-20% price discount versus the grocers if you are still seeing a share loss versus competitors on that basis?
I don't agree. I'm seeing a share loss on volume. We don't have inflation. The grocers do, and the price position, actually, it's even strengthening, so the volume share on FMCG is not a loss, categorical, so I have had two quarters of no inflation on FMCG. That's not the case in the market. I don't say, "Look at the Kantar or whatever information you are." I think, correct me, Mike, but I think order of magnitude, I think the level of grocer inflation in the market in December was in excess of 3%.
Yeah. So I think Kantar, looking at the last four weeks, as you'll have picked up, Adam, was high 3% in terms of inflation.
Our inflation is nil on FMCG six months in a row.
So if you did -2.8% in the period, but your FMCG number was worse than that, if I add on the 3% market inflation that you're having, you'd be zero or below. The market overall, it doesn't feel to me like as good a performance in FMCG than I would have expected given people trading down, given the better pricing that you're displaying. And that's why I was wondering if it's a footfall thing. And I think a few people have asked, "Do you need to let people know that your pricing is cheaper, or are you just going to wait for them to find out for themselves?" Which I get for existing customers. But how do you get new customers to come into the stores?
We are, in a year of no inflation on FMCG, FY24, high inflation everywhere in the system on FMCG. We're annualizing that into next year. I will see FMCG turning positive consistently from the beginning of the calendar year. That's my judgment on this one.
Okay. Final one from me. Is the 12%-13% EBITDA margin guidance still appropriate given the higher cost base that we've got coming through in the U.K. and given the sort of overall consumer environment? Is there scope that you might have to go below that 12%-13% for at least a short-term period in order to manage and navigate those issues?
Good question. I'm very comfortable with that guidance, 12%-13%. That doesn't move; it's sacrosanct, and the supply chain allows me to basically maintain and increase in key areas the relative advantage of the business. So no, it will be the same range. Correct.
That's great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. As a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one-one on your telephone. That's star one-on-one if you wish to ask a question. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to turn the conference back to Alex Russo for closing remarks.
Thank you, everybody, for joining us. Just a couple of key points to summarize what you've heard from Mike and I. The business will exit the year highly profitable and cash-generative. I think the domicile work is well advanced. Mike will be updating the market at the right time in due course. The business is well set up heading into the new calendar and FY26. We will be planning the business for positive LFL. All of that is unchanged. I am comfortable with the way we have exited at the second half of the quarter in terms of nominal LFLs and units, and the business will continue to drive that level of volume on the two sides of the business, and the discipline of the opening program is in good shape.
Now, the quality of those returns on every side continues to be very high, and the consumer will need our help in making sure that we give them the best possible price and value. That's what we do. And we will continue to do so in a highly disciplined manner. So I don't take any more of your time. Thank you for joining us, and I'm sure we'll be connecting soon. Thank you, everybody.
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.