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Earnings Call: H2 2020

Mar 12, 2021

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to our Full Year 2020 results. I'm here with Dominique Yates, at least virtually, who's going to help us take us through the highlights here and the progress that we've made in the year. If we look at what we're going to be covering, the agenda is on the slide now, slide three. We'll go through all these areas. The intention that we've got, though, is to give you some key takeaways, and we'll point them out as we go through. We're going to try and expand on those as we make our way through the presentation. So first takeaway I'd like to bring out is our commitment to sustainability.

This is something that I've been very passionate about for a long time, as those of you who know me realize, both within Bodycote and also in my activities outside of Bodycote. I think what's changed in the last few years is that people actually now want to hear about it, which is a very good thing. Where we start in Bodycote is with our core values. I encourage you to look at the very first page of our annual report. They're very simple, and you'll see them there. So if we then just talk a little bit about this slide on slide four, what I'd like to focus on is the path to net-zero carbon. And when you look at Bodycote, you should really look at this in a slightly different light from other people, other companies. And then we put that in context.

We're a service provider. Our main inputs are people and energy. What we do is we use energy to transform materials in terms of their properties. Now, if we look at that a slightly different way, what you can say is that what we actually do is manage energy. We're really good at it, actually. If we actually get business from industrial companies, what we're doing is taking their carbon footprint and putting it onto our carbon footprint, and then we manage it down because we're much more efficient, typically than any of the customers that we have. That's a matter of the fact because of the type of processes we operate and, in fact, the carbon footprint, which is much lower, particularly with our Specialist Technologies.

So when you look at us, you should also look at us not only as reducing our own carbon footprint, but we actually are an enabler of manufacturing the industry's drive carbon reduction. Now, we do this because it's good for business. It's not necessarily for other reasons. But the fact that it is drawing everybody together for what's got to be the noblest cause out there, and it helps me sleep at night, I think is no bad thing. So moving then on to the next slide, this is the strap line at the top of this slide is really what we're talking about here today in terms of it will bring it out further in the presentations. That's business transformed, resilience proven, and structured for growth.

If you look at our financial results, which are the first four bullets on slide five, you can see our revenue decline, 20%. I'd like you to focus on the EBITDA margin, 26.4%. Dominique is going to take you through these and point out why that actually is a very relevant statistic to look at. Moving down the page, strategic progress, you'll see as we go through that our strategic progress and our restructuring program is actually part of our longer-term strategy. It's no accident that we managed to move quite fast in this because we already knew the direction that we needed to go. Really, what we were doing was putting in place things that we'd thought about quite a lot in the past.

The restructuring program, GBP 36 million of cash costs, GBP 30 million of savings, and Dominique will go through with you the timing of all of that. Our strategy is basically to align the business, and this has been the case now for some years, with the secular megatrends that are out there in road transport, electrification, point-to-point air travel, and the reducing use of fossil fuels. I'll expand on that a bit later. We've continued to invest. The last item on this slide, the board's recommending a final dividend of 13.4 pence. That brings the total for the year to 19.4p. That represents an uninterrupted more than 30-year track record of growing or maintaining our dividend. Let's just look at the resilience-proven item here. What I'm showing you on slide six are two charts.

One is, the margin development, and the others are headcount development. If you look at the gray bars on the left, they show you the downturn that happened in the global financial crisis for us, from 2009, and then the regrowth in 2010 and 2011. On the right-hand side of each of the charts in orange, is what's happening now. And a couple of takeaways from this slide. The first is, if you look at the margin that we've achieved in 2020 and compare it with 2009, it's clearly much higher. But the other thing to note is that 13% rounded is about the peak margin that was achieved in constant currency terms in the decade prior to 2009. So quite a difference in quality of business there.

The second takeaway to note is that the trajectory coming out of a recession for this business is quite high. That's not changed. We have quite high operating leverage on the upside. We should expect that in due course as revenues recover. Now, just to note, how comparable are these margins? What was the revenue comparison between the two? And indeed, you see that 2020, as at the trough point, was 33% down compared with 2009, which was 31% down. The big difference is that 2020 happened in a period of weeks, whereas 2009 happened over half a year or more. The full-time equivalents, the headcount numbers, the reason I've illustrated that is that you can see how more efficient this business has got.

Just to put it in perspective, the constant currency revenues that we had in 2008 were only 5% higher than they are in 2020. And look at the change in people. Last point here in terms of slides in our the key takeaways. This is really a summation of what we'd like you to look at. 2020 has live tested the flexibility of our business. There's no doubt about that. Going forward, and we'll see this in more detail, we're actually in a mode now where we can stop talking about this business has changed. It's more resilient. I hope we've proven that. And the conversation can now move to the exciting prospects that we've got going forward here. And they are exciting. We'll see that in a second.

With that, I'd like to hand over to Dominique, who's going to take you through the numbers in some more detail.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Thank you, Stephen. Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. So moving on to chart nine. This summarizes the group's financial results and reflects the significant impact on those results from the revenue downturn. EBITDA margins remained very strong at 26.4% in spite of the significant revenue decline. And, you know, 26.4%, this is a figure that I think many, many companies, most companies, would aspire to. Why are we talking about EBITDA this year when we normally concentrate on the headline operating margin? Well, depreciation is a truly fixed cost. It's based on historic spend. And in that regard, we cannot reduce it in the short term. So EBITDA gives you a much better impact of how we've been able to move costs in response to the drop in revenue.

When you incorporate the dilutive impact of the relatively fixed depreciation charge, then EBIT margins did drop by just over 6 percentage points to 12.6%. But as Stephen has already highlighted, this, even this lower margin, still compares very favorably with historic margin levels for this business. And to achieve that in a year when organic revenues dropped 20% is really a testament to how far we've come. Moreover, the second half's EBITDA margin was 27.0% and therefore better than the first half margin. And this shows the speed of action taken on costs. And it's worth remembering that this doesn't even reflect the structural cost benefit from the restructuring actions that we had largely completed by the end of the year and which will benefit 2021's results. And I'll come on to talk about them later. Cash flow, excellent again.

And again, I'll, I'll talk about that a bit later. The final dividend, slightly increased, reflecting our confidence in the future profitability and cash flows of the business. Chart 10 shows the operating profit bridge. You clearly see on this chart the negative impact on the group result from lower volumes. Worth bearing in mind, that drop in sales volume and mix there, that's in relation to a drop in organic revenues of around about GBP 145 million. And I'll come on to, so clearly, the costs dropped significantly in relation to that. And I'll come on to talk about that again a bit later. The chart also shows the contribution to lower costs from the group's variable pay schemes. And these schemes have done pretty much exactly what they're designed to. Obviously, they are there to incentivize performance.

But in a downturn, they do contribute to softening the negative profit impact on the business, from lower revenues. On chart 11, one of the highlights this year has undoubtedly been our free cash flow. Of course, there has been a significant contribution to this from the improved working capital position as a result of lower receivables, from our lower revenues. And this will reverse as revenues improve, over time. But you can also see that we continued to spend money maintaining our equipment. And within that free cash flow, there is also around about GBP 10 million of cash spend on our restructuring program. Overall, therefore, we achieved a free cash flow conversion of 141%. And I think that is really an excellent result. And below free cash flow, we are continuing to invest in our business with continued expansionary CapEx.

The outlook for that is still positive with many new projects still coming through, particularly in emerging markets and Specialist Technologies. Chart 12, I've already mentioned our strong EBITDA margin performance. This chart really puts it into context. This is my fifth set of full-year results. And actually, the 2020 EBITDA margin performance is better than that achieved in my first two years, 2016 and 2017. Now, to have achieved this when underlying revenues dropped by about a third overnight at the end of March and in a business which has generally been considered to be exposed to operational leverage, I think that is testament to the flexibility of the cost base in this business. Chart 13 shows the divisional performances. Overall, as you might expect, margins in both divisions were hit by the lower revenues.

ADE margins held up quite well in the first half but dropped in the second half with the full impact from the drop in civil aerospace revenues impacting the business there. AGI margins, on the other hand, were most impacted in the first half with the automotive plant shutdowns that we saw in the second quarter. Second half margins improved significantly. Chart 14 looks at this in a bit more detail. It shows organic ADE and AGI second half revenues and cost development versus last year. You can see there, in overall cost terms, AGI has actually done a pretty good job cutting its costs by more than 20%. It's only the fact that the revenue decline has exceeded the cost improvement that has resulted in the lower ADE margins.

AGI, on the other hand, it still had a significant but nonetheless more benign drop in revenues, in the second half when compared with the first half. It actually reduced costs by more than the revenue decline. That results in an increase in the EBITDA performance in the second half for the AGI division compared with 2019. Now, ADE margins will improve as the restructuring benefits begin to feed in late this year. Realistically, we need ADE revenues to recover a little before we see meaningful margin improvement. Currently, our best guess is that ADE margins should be back above 20% by late 2022. Chart 15 looks at the finances of the restructuring program. So in the first half, we took a restructuring charge which was more focused on the AGI business.

We've added to this in the second half, as we outlined in November, with another phase of the pro program more focused on the ADE business. So the total restructuring charge for the full year was GBP 52 million. This included GBP 36 million of cash costs. The program was largely complete at the end of 2020. A lot of the final payments to people and site clearance costs, etc., will only be paid through 2021. So that's the cost side of things. On the benefit side, we expect to achieve GBP 30 million of permanent annual savings from the program, with around GBP 20 million of that being achieved in 2021 and an additional GBP 10 million coming through in 2022. On chart 16, taking a look at the balance sheet, net debts at GBP 23 million.

That's after paying GBP 96 million in connection with the acquisition of Ellison. Just a reminder there that we have the second and final tranche of $80 million or around about GBP 57 million at today's exchange rates on the Ellison acquisition, that we will pay at the beginning of April. In terms of liquidity at year-end, you know, we're in a very strong position. We had GBP 228 million of available liquidity, at the end of December. Headline tax rate, 22%-22.5%, bang in line with our guidance. Finally, just to note that based on today's exchange rates, we would if you were looking at 2020's headline operating profit performance and translating that at today's exchange rates, it would be around GBP 3 million lower than the GBP 75.3 million headline operating profit delivered. So worth bearing in mind when, projecting into, 2021 and beyond.

Now, back to Stephen.

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

Thank you, Dominique. So, moving to slide 18, this slide here, I'd like to use this as an introduction, if you like, to our walk through the market sectors, and to see how things have moved and why they've moved. Across the bars here, you see the relative sizes of each of our main segments. And just to remember, general industrial is really a collection of everything that's not in the other three bars. There then you have automotive, which is principally car and light truck, then aerospace and defense. And last and least is energy. You can see from this slide that the largest parts of the business declined the least. In other words, general industrial and automotive, by the time they've gone down and come back up again, actually have recovered quite strongly. And they're well advanced in recovery mode now.

The aerospace and defense segment is a more complex path. I'll come to that in a minute. But just a word on the context of this. Dominique referred to losing the revenue overnight. I was sitting behind my computer screens in early April. And they were lighting up with notifications from customers, as they were closing their doors all around the world. It was amazing. It reminded me of standing on the hills of Hollywood looking over Los Angeles, actually, as a power cut went through the city and all the lights went out. It was amazing. It was phenomenal. But, you know, that's what happened. That's why the demand fell. Our lights stayed on, by the way. We even in jurisdictions where closures were mandated except for essential services.

The reason for that is that we were designated as a provider of essential services to industries that were required to keep going during any shutdowns. So if we walk into general industrial and have a look at this business, don't forget, this is a proxy for industrial production. You can see from the chart that we've got the quarterly progressions through the year. You can see how they've moved for this business. It's a collection of lots of different subsegments. Some were moving up from the beginning, like the medical side. Others were going down quite strongly. Overall, this is a very diversified segment. In general, North America is stronger than Western Europe. But a highlight in it, in the general industrial area, is emerging markets.

You'll hear us talking about that when we come to the end of this presentation, and what's featuring in the emerging markets side. Moving to automotive, the automotive business, I mean, wow, did it go down fast. You know, OEMs shuttering their plants, no production at all. Now it's come back very strongly in second half. In fact, the Q4 automotive revenues are the same as Q4 2019. We're building up capacity. Part of our plan here is building up capacity in Eastern Europe. That's continued. That's aimed at electric vehicle production. I'll talk a bit more about the strategy behind this stuff in a minute. Aerospace and defense, probably the most complex story to try and get across here. So it's come down across the year quarter- by- quarter. This is principally civil aerospace.

Civil aerospace makes up about 75% of this business. It's now stabilized at an exit revenue rate of about 43%. Going forward, what we're looking at here is we expect narrow bodies to recover fast. And when they do recover, to remove very to move very quickly. The actual value add that we get per engine is irrespective of whether it's a big engine or a small engine, because the price that people pay is to do with the work that we do, not the size of the component. The reason why the narrow bodies are expected to come back faster, we expect, is it's part of this secular trend of point-to-point transport. The transportation using small planes to go to a L.A. hub and then transfer to large planes to go longer distance has been under pressure for quite a lot of years now.

And it's been downward pressure, therefore, on the wide-body planes and the large, passenger capacity planes that are there. We traditionally were focused much more heavily on engines and landing gear for wide bodies than we were on narrow bodies. And part of our strategy has been to move towards narrow bodies, which in entails moving a lot more exposure to North America, which is where you have the, the narrow-body engines dominating in terms of production and also Safran in France, which is part of the CFM alliance. And that's an ongoing trend. What's happened here is that the pandemic's probably accelerated it. And, that's something that we will see continuing going forward, we believe. Just for a word on how we see revenues moving in the past, what we're anticipating and, of course, we don't have a crystal ball.

We're anticipating in our outlook here that the civil aerospace recovery we won't see anything material in 2021. But we do expect to see revenues in 2019 exceeding 2020 in 2023, exceeding 2019 levels. So, you know, we're going to see things start to move quite strongly in 2022. Is our actual planning base here. Then, finishing off with energy, this is now a very small part of the business. We've already said in the past that we aren't investing in the onshore oil and gas extraction business. The offshore business, which is actually primarily subsea production and a lot of gas, has been quite robust. And the reason for that is that these are long-time wave projects that we work on. We're watching it. I mean, it has been impacted. But we'll just see how that goes.

But once again, onshore oil and gas, which for us is primarily Permian Basin fracking, we don't anticipate investing in that anymore. So if I just come to the restructuring and strategy part of this presentation, this, this is the program. And there's a lot of moving pieces here. So I do apologize for it to be in a lot of detail, and we, we could talk more about it later on. But we have already said that we started this program in 2019 before anybody, at least I, could spell pandemic. It was something that we were moving into.

We started with the restructuring in Western Europe and moving away from internal combustion engines, which were primarily in Western Europe targeted at Tier 3 and Tier 4 suppliers in the supply chain, and moving towards Eastern Europe, where we have electric vehicle production being set up by OEMs and tier ones. And we've been moving our footprint to service not only a different type of vehicle but also a different class of customer. And it's a lot more stable at that level, and a higher value add. In total, this program has seen 15 closures, three new facilities started up in Eastern Europe. And just to note that the redundant capacity we have and that's a feature through all this business because we've not got rid of productive capacity in terms of equipment. We've kept the equipment. We've just moved it.

So we've got rid of buildings. We've got rid of infrastructure. But we haven't done anything with the process lines. We've moved them to a different location. And in the recovery phase here, that redundant capacity is being transferred to Eastern Europe or sister plants in Western Europe. And where there is no immediate demand for, for example, heavy truck and bus, who knows where that's going, this equipment's being repurposed for general industrial where the market is very large. In 2020 now, we've expanded the program. And this is ongoing. I mean, the aerospace realignment is something that we're still working on. Just as a general note, the restructuring plan is largely complete. Dominique already said that. But in 2020, we continue with this, because it's just happening in some areas of the world where it's harder to do things quickly.

I'm referring here to what I would call the social democracies of Europe. In total here, we've closed one plant in North America. We've closed one in Belgium and two in the United Kingdom. And that actually is part of this refocusing towards the narrow bodies, which predominate in North America and to some extent in France. The current underutilized capacity is being pushed heavily at medical and GI markets. And then we've got the oil and gas side and some legacy plants in North America. You will recall that we had some plants, one, one in particular that was a real boat anchor in North America. It's been around for a long time. Some of us used to call it the gates of hell. And that is now closed.

In total, this part of the program is the closure of seven facilities, with two new facilities coming on stream. In total, 26 plants closed. We're in the process of closing and five new facilities. So if we look at this program in two parts, one is the immediate cost reduction, which clearly happened quite fast. And where we are now is you will recall that we like to have a buffer of temporary labor because it's much easier to make those changes with temporaries than it is with permanents. And in some parts of the world, of course, on North American continents, we could actually say that everybody's a temporary worker. That's the way that industry economy works. But so we concentrate these more in Europe on the temporaries.

We are refilling that pool as demand recovers here back up to our ideal target of 15% of the workforce. But it's an important point. The restructuring program is a lot more than a reaction to the immediate situation. It's part of our ongoing strategy. And what we've been doing here is following this alignment with these long-term megatrends. And I can sort of encapsulate this quite quickly in terms of, well, what does it mean? What, what are we doing here? What we've had to do, because of the demand for and, had to it actually justifies it, is that we've taken about six years of strategic evolution. And we've condensed it into one year. And clearly, that's not because we're some kind of super brains where we just had everything, you know, we just worked it out on the fly.

This has all been in line with where we've been going, in the longer term anyway. Now, moving to Specialist Technologies, I could have put this slide right up front because it is a very important part of our story. It is a strategic part of our story. And it is a main pillar of our strategy. And nothing's changed in that. What I didn't want to do is to get this mixed up with a restructuring program because there isn't one in this part of the business, at all. You can see there the profit now of Specialist Technologies as a percentage of the whole. It's grown to 48%. That's got to do with the starting from a higher point of margins than Classical Heat Treatment. I mean, it did get dented a bit, particularly in aerospace and defense.

But we've been talking about this as a relative performance in terms of growth versus Classical Heat Treatment. And that has been preserved in this extreme downturn that we've seen. And we will see these things still growing back up and keeping going. And this is a long-term exciting story. And then, last but not least, the emerging markets really rebounding hard here, going very, very well. You know, China revenue's up 16% in the second half. Emerging markets is now about 12% of our total group. We are increasing our investment in the emerging markets as we are in the Specialist Technologies. So expect to see more facilities, more capacity, in fact, in the emerging markets in the years to come here. This is where we will reap a lot of growth and a lot of profitable growth.

So if we look to the future here, let me just give you a vision of tomorrow. I mean, I don't want to do it for next month because this is longer-term stuff. It's very exciting, I think, but then I get excited about these things anyway. We are accelerating our growth. We're keeping them in line with our strategy, following these secular megatrends, following the things we've been telling you about all along. And we are going to be reaping the benefits of the efficiencies that we've got out of this restructuring and the permanent cost savings that we've achieved, which, once again, just to bang the drum at home, that's all about removing infrastructure, and people associated with that infrastructure. And that's a permanent reduction. We are an increased flexibility and increased efficiency business.

So all of these things point to a better, higher-quality business with very exciting long-term prospects. So moving on to the outlook statements, you've got the outlook statement there that is in the documents, all of them that have been published. But just at the bottom line, we wanted you to take away from this that this is a transformed business. We've proven resilience. Now we need to start the conversation with everybody about the future and the growth that we see. With that, thank you very much, everybody. We will move to questions and answers.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you do change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure your line is unmuted. Our first question comes from Harry Philips from Peel Hunt. Your line is now open.

Harry Philips
Industrials Analyst, Peel Hunt

Good morning, everyone. Just a couple of questions, please. Just in terms of looking at the aerospace run rate into 2021, -43% in the second half of last year, is that an ongoing assumption into the first half and beyond for 2021? And then secondly, the split of the restructuring gain of GBP 20 million anticipated in 2021, I'm assuming more of it will be in aerospace reflecting the sort of later execution of that program. Would that be correct?

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

Yeah. Good morning, Harry. Nice to hear from you. I'll take the first part on the run rate. And Dominique will fill in the details on the split of the gain. It, the exit rate from 2020 here is where we started. I mean, we plateaued at the end of 2020. What we're seeing, a little bit of tick up. And you will have seen the news flow in terms of how the production is ticking up a little bit. But our best guess right now is we won't see a material benefit from that upside. But if it comes, it'll come with a lot of drop-through. But in terms of what we're talking about, our numbers for the outlook, we're not anticipating much of material upside to this, certainly not looking at it going down anymore.

Dominique, would you like to take the gain?

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Sure. So on the restructuring, I mean, overall, Harry, there were more AGI facilities shut than ADE facilities. So in terms of permanent structural cost savings, one would expect more of that to be in AGI than ADE. And in terms of timing, absolutely, the AGI benefit will be coming through in 2021. The ADE benefit, there will be a little bit of benefit in 2021 but mainly into 2022.

Harry Philips
Industrials Analyst, Peel Hunt

Brilliant. Many thanks, indeed.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrew Douglas from Jefferies. Your line is now open.

Andrew Douglas
Managing Director and SVP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Good morning, gents. I have a few questions, and I'll jump back in line and ask the, the remaining. With regards to specialist tech, clearly an important part of your, of your strategic evolution. Can you talk to us a little bit more about kind of where we are across all of the technologies, whether there's going to be a focus on specific ones with regards to capital allocation going forward? I'm, I'm assuming it's more on the, AGI side. And just also whether there's a few more in the pipe. We've seen one or two, of these, things evolve over the last kind of couple of years. I wonder if there's any, any new ones. Secondly, on emerging markets, clearly lots of runway of growth there. Can we just double-check kind of where and how quickly that could come through?

I'm assuming it's more of the same in the chosen regions that you are currently focused on. And then last but not least, outsourcing opportunities in auto. Just wondering where we are there, and also if you can give us a little bit of an overview of how you're seeing the M&A market. That would be really helpful. Thank you.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Okay. Thanks, Andy. So where are we on investment, in terms of Specialist Technologies? It's something we'll be pushing forward in 2021, 2022, 2023. You'll see us putting in investment actually in some of the technologies that are currently more heavily weighted into aerospace but pursuing things like medical. And we've got some stuff in the pipeline on that, particularly things like HIP services. So you'll see some of that coming through. The specialty, specialist, specialty S3P. No, I can't even say it anymore. The, the stainless steel business. That is something that's going leaps and bounds. I mean, that is, that's showing tremendous growth forward. That's a, an AGI-focused business. And we will certainly be going hard and heavy on that.

So it's not only pushing after AGI stuff, but it's also while we're waiting, if you like, for demand in the civil aerospace market to come back, we are going to be pushing the Specialist Technologies that are more heavily weighted there into other areas. And things like medical are just a hand-in-glove fit for that. Any new Specialist Technologies? I think we've got our hands full with the ones we've got, frankly. We don't need any more. And so we've still got stuff in the closet, but now is not the time to deploy it, frankly. Emerging markets, your question was, is it more of the same as we've seen in the past? And I will say yes but a plus on top of it. So we are going to be increasing our greenfield build situation in the emerging markets.

In some of the markets, as you know, we've said there's absolutely nobody to buy. And, you know, the emerging markets is a classic for that. Yeah, we'd love to have been able to go and buy ready-made facilities to service the emerging markets. But it's been, there's nobody to buy that actually has had market share that we could go for or anything that was worth it in the past. So we've always built from scratch. We're looking at things a little bit differently now. The hardest area to do this in was China. And one of the problems in China in building new greenfields is that it takes about 2-3 years to get the permits in order to get one of these facilities up and running. It's very difficult.

Basically, it's to do with the amount of people that you employ and the amount of energy that these businesses use. And the Chinese actually like for you to employ thousands of people. And that's not our input per facility; that's not our trademark. But there are thousands of facilities in China just very poor quality, and, you know, poorly manned. But they do have operating permits to operate. So we are looking at an acquisition strategy, frankly, of acquiring businesses and then revamping them. And it seems that that could well speed up our China expansion quite dramatically. And I know our China team is very excited about this. We've got a lot of things that we've identified. And we've got a great team there now. And, you know, it's quite strong. So we'll be pushing that very, very hard.

Outsourcing, that's not something that, you know, I don't make promises about outsourcing. These tend to be very difficult things to happen. We may see an acceleration in outsourcing from going back to what I started with, in the presentation today. There was a lot of people trying to reduce their carbon footprint. Giving us the business is a great way of doing that because they just we take the total carbon down for them. And that includes their so-called Scope 3, which Bodycote is our supply of it. They add it all up. Their carbon footprint goes down. And there's a lot, a lot of pressure on that. So we might see an acceleration on that.

But these things have historically been, you know, like turkeys voting, voting for Christmas because it's the people working in the part they want to outsource that ultimately say what the risk is, and that they're quite reluctant. So it, it takes, typically a CFO to say, "Well, let's look at the returns. We want these to be variable costs rather than fixed costs that, that causes that decision to happen." But we may see an acceleration of that. Lastly, on M&A, I think that was the last point you made. And sorry to drone on here. The M&A standpoint, so, it is certainly true that we are getting inbounds now from folks that, weren't interested in talking during the depths of the pandemic. I think what they've done is they've weathered it through. But life looks a little difficult, if I might say.

The problem I've got is the ones that I've looked at in detail are pretty close to insolvency. I'm not sure that that's necessarily a business that we want. There's certainly more inbounds coming in, and we'll see. I mean, we aren't desperate. We aren't going running after them. I don't perceive us buying a transformational business at this point in time. That's not where we're going. We've got very good platform here, very excited about where we are with Ellison. I mean, it's in the circumstance, it's been integrated extremely well. And the folks in that business, you know, they're all charged up, ready to go. And we've actually seen quite an improvement in the efficiency in that business, which we didn't figure in our calculations for the returns on it. This business is actually. It was an excellent business.

It's now just a very good business, in terms of future potential. I hope that answers your questions, Andy.

Andrew Douglas
Managing Director and SVP of Equity Research, Jefferies

Indeed. Very clear. Thank you ever so much.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andre Kukhnin from Credit Suisse. Your line is now open.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Good morning. Thank you very much for taking my questions. I'll go one at a time if that's okay. Can I come back to civil aerospace and your message on where the run rate and what you expect for 2021 is crystal clear? I just wanted to get a bit more color on what you're seeing in terms of those stocking and destocking dynamics that we were witnessing kind of at the mid-year where the run rates for OEMs, the airframers were at one level. The supply chain was at a different level. There was some preservation of that. So the stock was being built. But at the same time, I think they were destocking at their own component level, which was impacting you. So just love to know what the state of this kind of system is now as we enter or have entered into 2021, please.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Sure. Thanks, Andrea. So let me try and put this in a nice sort of simple way because I'm not that anybody's stupid, but it's very, really complicated. You will have seen press releases, for example, from Airbus. They've raised their production rates in terms of their deliveries of planes. And in other parts, you know, so the narrow bodies, particularly, the people are starting to raise their production rates. The wide bodies are flat. So how does that come through the system? We are expecting the narrow body pi work to pick up. The acceleration on the narrow body work will be fast when it comes. Has it hit us yet in terms of are we seeing a build coming through to us? The answer's no.

I think that's because there throughout the pipeline, from all the way from, you know, sort of planes on the ground with no engines fitted, to the supply chain where they basically they've got stock, and they need to start moving that. That's going to take a little bit of time. So we haven't actually seen that come through yet, which is one of the reasons why, you know, when we started talking about this, we've always said that our outlook here, even if, you know, the plane build rate goes up because don't forget we've got exposure to aftermarket, flying hours, in other words, and plane build, even when people start doing that, we will be a lag in terms of that because of the pipeline of stock.

That's something that will erode that stock through the year and start going to normal production rates by the time we get to the end of the year. That's our view, at least. But, you know, I've been wrong before.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

That's, that's very helpful. Thank you very much. Second question I had was on the Eastern European capacity addition for electric vehicles, propulsion or other parts. Could you quantify that at all or give us any sense of how large these facilities are, their average size, just to think about potential revenue opportunity maybe?

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

Well, Andre, you know me well. I'm not going to quantify it. If we were going to, I'd have, Dominique do it. But it's, it's actually I know what you're looking for. The problem you've got is that the EV production is three years down the pike because what we're doing at the moment is quoting, on, RFPs, requests for proposal for production that is yet to happen. And so we're running we're running components. They're large facilities. They're modern facilities. They're beautiful facilities. They are when I say EV production, you know, there's a lot of stuff on electric vehicles that is generic. So you don't need to have a very specific EV production facility. But you are producing steering gear, which doesn't matter what it's going onto. It's going onto EV, or it's going onto, internal combustion engines. And then there's the EV-specific stuff.

And that's those three plants in Eastern Europe that are coming on stream, they're really looking at EV-specific stuff. But in the meantime, whilst we're waiting for EVs to actually become a meaningful part of the market, they are doing Automotive and General Industrial work. But it's largely automotive that is playing across the entire sort of vehicle-agnostic type of supply chain there. So the absolute capacity at this point in time, too early to actually hand that data out. But they are very productive plants, and they are larger than the average because they're brand new.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Got it. Thank you. And final question, just on pricing dynamics. There was quite a lot of kind of saber rattling during the thick of the downturn in terms of asking for discounts from all sorts of OEMs across your customer list. Could you update us on where that landed, and what you're seeing for 2021 in terms of your pricing dynamics?

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

I don't see us being any different from where we are normally. You know, we've not really moved on pricing. In some specific areas, we've had a little bit of, you know, a temporary give-back giveaway, just because, you know, when customers are in trouble, it's not a great idea to sit there with your sort of chest out being indignant. So we have actually given people some support during 2020. But it's been temporary support. And, you know, that's gone now. So, we would see the pricing being robust going forward. And as we normally talk about, it's, you know, it's going to be ahead of our cost inflation. Can't see that being any different.

Andre Kukhnin
Equity Research Analyst, Credit Suisse

Perfect. Thank you very much.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Thank you, Andre.

Our next question is from Michael Tyndall from HSBC. Your line is now open.

Michael Tyndall
Director, HSBC

Morning, Jed. Thank you very much for taking questions. Just a couple from me. I wonder, can we just go back to Specialist Tech for a second? I mean, it looks like it had, comparatively, a really strong year. And I guess maybe this is my stupidity, but I, I thought it was very much exposed to A&D. So I'm just trying to reconcile how it did very well in a year when A&D wasn't so strong. Is there something, something else? Can we talk maybe about what the end markets are that are doing particularly well there? I think you've already mentioned medical. And then I guess a question around inventory levels or restocking in general industrial. I know that we're sort of waiting for that to happen. Any indications, I guess, in your order book that that might be on the cusp of happening?

Or when in your mind do you think we'll have clarity, or at least your customers will have enough clarity to think, "Okay, it's time to start putting spare parts on the shelves"? Thanks.

Stephen Harris
Group Chief Executive Officer, Bodycote

Thanks, Mike. Yeah, good questions. So let me, I'll take the inventory question, and Dominique will take the specialist technology question, mostly because there is a, you know, there's a lot of mechanics in the numbers on that. I don't want anybody to be misled on the inventory level, so just to remind everybody, our lead time, customer lead, you know, lead time on deliveries, we call it turn time. You know, from the point of getting customers' products to delivering them out is typically between three and seven days. And we don't have, you know, sort of the order for that stuff more than a week ahead of time.

What we have is a blanket order that says, "We are going to be buying from you for the next however many years or months." And when the work arrives, effectively, is when we get the purchase order for it. So we don't have order books. And we don't have inventories. So we don't get visibility out of our order books. So where we get the visibility from is watching the dynamics of, you know, sort of 40,000 customers, I think it's, I don't know, 700,000 was the last time I looked at it, orders per annum. There's a lot. There's a lot of data in there. And that's where we get a lot of information from. And we survey customers' attitudes. As far as inventory levels are concerned in our supply chain, what we try and do there is look for discontinuities in sales.

So you know that if you see an overnight move in a particular region or whatever, it is an indication of restocking or destocking because the large customer numbers of customers don't move like that. So it's got to be a stocking destocking situation. And I can say in general industrial, what we're seeing is there's no inventory at all existing in medical. I mean, those guys have played out, I mean, as far as I can make out. I mean, they're desperate for deliveries. There's, you know, some of the pharmaceutical production lines, there's no inventory. You know, these guys are just screaming, "Send us. Send us. Send us." Then in other areas, because this is a very mixed business, you know, we are starting to see agricultural equipment where, you know, that area is possibly picking up.

But it's just, you know, these are all sort of slices of general industrial. I wish I could be more helpful to you, but you chose the one market segment that is the most diverse that we have. Okay? So let me give you to Dominique, and he'll sort of walk through the specialist technology story.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Sure. Well, I guess, I mean, the first thing to say is, obviously, Ellison is a Specialist Technology, and therefore, that's contributed to the Specialist Technology revenues. And that's the reason for the increase of Specialist Technology sales as a proportion of the total, because, as you've rightly said, all things being equal, the exposure within Specialist Technologies is more geared towards the ADE side of the business of our business than the AGI side of the business. And given that that is the side of the business that's been harder hit underlying, than one might have expected that to have an impact on Specialist Technologies revenues. So you've got Ellison contributing there.

But if we unpack that and look within the AGI division, you know, we had growth in our AGI-focused specialist technologies, revenue growth of 8% during the second half. So that compares still very favorably with the, you know, more than 10% revenue decline that we saw across the Automotive and General Industrial Classical Heat Treatment revenues. And similarly, on the ADE side of the business, we had real organic revenues, excluding the contribution of Ellison, declining 33% during the second half. And that compares, again, favorably with the 40% decline that we saw in the comparable organic Aerospace, Defense and Energy C lassical Heat Treatment revenues. So there is outperformance. And then overall, there's outperformance in each of the individual divisions. And then overall, the numbers are clearly boosted by Ellison.

Michael Tyndall
Director, HSBC

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jonathan Hurn from Barclays. Your line is now open.

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Good morning, guys. Just a few questions from me, please. Basically coming back to civil aerospace. Can you just give us a feel of the current split within your business between narrow-body and wide-body, and how you think that kind of develops over the next few years, please? That was the first one.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Hi, Jonathan. Yeah, I knew that question was coming. The problem I've got is that things are moving so fast. I don't have the numbers at hand. That is for sure. I can tell you that, and before we got into this, this last year in 2020, that we had something like 70% of it was on widebody, one way shape or form. A lot of it focused in the U.K., but also in other places. And the narrowbody side of life is really the LEAP-1B and LEAP-1A engines. So that's the Airbus A320s, the GE stuff. And that's grown dramatically because we've got three times the share on those engines that we had on the predecessor CFM56s. Where the split is today, I don't know.

But what I can tell you is that the U.S. business, which is where the predominance of the exposure is to that business, not including Ellison even, is much larger. And if you put Ellison in on top of it, then it really dwarfs it. I mean, Dominique, what's the North American civil aerospace revenues now, please, including Ellison?

Give me a moment, and I will look it up.

That noise you can hear is his brain working. We'll come back and give you the answer, I think. Anything else you want, Jonathan? We'll, we'll, we'll come with the answer on this call.

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Yeah.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

We'll give you the answer on the call.

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Okay. Perfect. Thank you. The second one was just coming back to EV and just looking at do you have the same customer penetration in EV as you do in IC, or are some customers more or less important? And also just following on from that, as we kind of look at EV versus IC and, obviously, the services you provide to that, is there any real difference in margin between the two? Maybe does EV have more sort of specialist technologies that allows you to sort of generate a higher margin? That's the second one.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Yeah. Good question. As I say, taking them one at a time, customer penetration. So I can tell you that our penetration of Tesla is zero. And that is deliberate because what happens with the strategy that Mr. Musk has in that business is that he gets suppliers to set up, and they pilot what his designs are. And once they're running, he closes that down and moves it in-house. And we saw that coming from a mile away. And so you can pump a lot of money into supplying Tesla, and overnight, you lose the business. But that's happened in on the West Coast. It's currently happening in China. So we have zero of Tesla. And I don't expect to go into that. You know, we say zero.

We've been doing things like some of the EV welding that they need and stuff like that, but nothing material. So the rest of the world, where is our penetration? Well, North America doesn't really have a huge desire for EVs, other than people wanting to drive sporty vehicles at the moment, if I can put it that way. I mean, half my family is American. And, you know, I've got lots of relatives there. They still like their big trucks and pickup trucks and four-wheel-drive vehicles. I mean, it's sort of a, I don't know. It's part of their lifestyle. The only reason they go and buy a Tesla is because they so want something that goes from 0 to 1 million miles an hour in a couple of seconds and breaks your neck. So that's the kind of motivation.

but in Europe, it's a different dynamic. So the penetration that we've got in the EV world today is primarily with the primes now is primarily with the likes of VW. So we have one plant that is virtually dedicated to EV production with EW. but back in North America, we are a supplier to General Motors who've just laid out their stall publicly, actually, that they're moving quite strongly to EVs. And remember that, you know, a lot of people thought that EVs didn't have transmissions. They didn't have gears in them. You'll see from our automotive slide there, there is that's actually an electric vehicle transmission with the gears. that's the stuff that we do in North America.

So, you know, we will see as that the North American electric vehicle market grows, non-Tesla market grows, we'll see quite a good growth there because we're already in with the OEMs. I hope that answers that question. The margins question, especially our Specialist Technologies are the processes of choice for electric vehicles. You've got low-pressure carburizing. And in fact, one of our technologies, which is not classified today as a Specialist Technology, which is gas nitriding, they have margins that are similar. I mean, you know, these Specialist Technologies are indeed gas nitriding, similar kind of margins. And those two technologies are very much the technologies that the EV guys want. And now, we're talking about the EV-specific stuff. We're not talking about, you know, sort of, you know, steering gear and braking systems and stuff like that, the EV-specific stuff. It's gas nitriding.

It's low-pressure carburizing. It's low-carbon footprint, highly efficient, very nice margin business. There's also things like our Corr-I-Dur process, which is a corrosion prevention thing. But it, it's all about lightweighting. That's why they use those processes. Does that answer your question?

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Great. That's very helpful, indeed.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Just coming back on the North American civil aerospace revenue, that was GBP 67 million last year in 2020.

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thank you. And then maybe I could just have one final quick one. I know it's a very small part of your business, but just how you're thinking about the outlook for the oil and gas side. Obviously, oil prices are above $60. I just your thoughts on any sort of recovery coming through there, please. That's the final one.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Yeah, Jonathan. So oil and gas has always been, you know, onshore oil and gas is, you know, if you know how that works, you're better than me. We don't have an outlook on that. I mean, we've always been prepared for any eventuality in onshore oil and gas. So it's just there. Where it goes, I think you're better off talking to people that are specialists than that because I've given up trying to predict it.

Jonathan Hurn
Analyst, Barclays

Fair enough. Thanks, sir. Thanks, guys. Thank you.

Operator

As a final reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. We currently have no further questions, so I'll hand back to you.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Yeah, we don't have anything on the web either, so that's fine. Just a sort of final point I'd like to make. There's been a huge amount of activity that's gone on in the last year. And we've really sort of covered this quite fast in a very high level. There's a lot more information in the documents, particularly our annual report. And clearly, you know, if you want to know more, then give us a call. We're there, definitely. I've just got a question coming in from Dominic Convey, I think.

Operator

We have another question registered by Dominic Convey from Numis Securities. Your line is now open.

Dominic Convey
Director of Capital Goods Research, Numis Securities

Thanks, Stephen. Sorry, I got dumped off the call and just had to reconnect. Just, just wanted to ask about the profit bridge for 2021 and the key building blocks, and, and specifically how much of the GBP 15 million of bonus/share-based payments you'd expect to accrue this year if, if current consensus are right. And secondly, just how we should think about the broader shape of profit this year given the moving parts, obviously, the timing on the restructuring cost savings, perhaps the unwind of the temporary cost savings last year, and, and again, the, the phasing of your various end markets. How do you think sort of first half, second half might fare relative to previous years? Thank you.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Okay. That sounds like a question for me. So first one for the profit bridge for the full year. There are three parts to this. So there is the GBP 20 million of structural savings from the restructuring program that we will benefit from this year. The second part is the fact that we will have bonuses and BIP accruals coming back. Now, the GBP 15 million was the differential compared with the 2019 figure. The target bonus and BIPs is actually a little higher than that. So the figure that we've been using is GBP 18 million. So you've got plus 20 from the restructuring, minus 18 from the additional bonus and BIPs, leaving you a net two.

The third element is a fungible element because it depends on the revenues, because as revenues strengthen, as Stephen, you know, highlighted when he was talking about the business, we will need to take costs back on to service that extra revenue. So the rule of thumb is that when you look at organic revenue growth, and, and there you have to strip out an extra GBP 7 million or so, that you get for Ellison in terms of contributing to first year sorry, first quarter, revenues this year. But on organic revenue growth, rule of thumb, you should expect at least a 50% drop-through of that. So that's your bridge from 2020 to 2021 profits. In terms of the first half, second half split, honestly, I have not worked through the detail of that yet. But clearly, the first quarter of last year was a relatively normal quarter.

So we're anniversaring against some reasonably strong profitability in that quarter. We will be seeing revenue declines against that in the first part of this year. We will have the restructuring program delivering growth through the year. In terms of year-on-year numbers, second half will certainly look better than first half.

Dominic Convey
Director of Capital Goods Research, Numis Securities

Lovely. Thanks, Dominic.

Dominique Yates
Chief Financial Officer, Bodycote

Pleasure.

Thanks, Tom. Hopefully, we'll talk to you soon. I'll get back to finishing off then, if I might, which is just to say thank you very much, everybody. Appreciate your time and coming to listen to us and talk soon.

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