Hello, and welcome to the Ecora Royalties PLC investor presentation. Today, we are joined by the Ecora management team. I will now like to hand over to Marc.
Well, thank you very much for joining us for Ecora's H1 2026 presentation. It was a great start to the year, very much continuing to build upon the momentum established in 2025. Total portfolio contribution increased 75% in the period, benefiting from volume growth, particularly our base metals royalty exposures, as well as commodity prices. The 75% increase in portfolio contribution led directly to a fivefold increase in adjusted earnings, and in part, certainly demonstrating the scalability of the royalty model. The period also represents delivery in a number of key areas, continuing on from our full year 2025 results. First, the critical minerals portfolio continues to demonstrate its underlying cash generation potential. With that portfolio contribution from the base metals up just under 160% in H1 2026 compared to H1 2025. Second, we continue to see rapid deleveraging and reduction in debt.
Net debt as of the end of the first half was $75 million compared to $ 125 million last year following the acquisition of a producing copper stream. We've positioned with further debt reduction expected in the second half of the year, potentially benefiting from commodity prices in addition to the deleveraging that's expected should commodity prices remain at or exceed current levels. Third in the period, it was clearly demonstrated that compared to historically when Ecora's revenues was derived primarily from the Kestrel royalty, which is by definition very short-dated, a large portion of the revenues generated in the first half of this year were underpinned by royalties or streams with mine lives that run multiple decades with life of mine extension potential thereafter. I think the fourth point to note is the strong increase in free cash flow conversion that occurred.
You can see it with a 75% increase in portfolio contribution translating to a 5x increase in adjusted earnings, and that's something my colleague Kevin will discuss in more detail. Last, but certainly not least, in the period, it's very clear that this portfolio is now positioned for a number of key de-risking events in relation to the next five years and the next five years of organic growth that's embedded in this portfolio that has been bought and paid for, some potentially as soon as the second half of this year. With that, I'll hand it over to Kevin to take you through the financials.
Thanks, Marc, and thanks everyone again for joining us. Our financial highlights, as Marc mentioned, we saw a 75% increase in portfolio contribution in the period, very much underpinned by our base metals portfolio, which grew by 160% year-on-year. This was driven by quite strong operational performance and also some very positive pricing tailwinds as well. So very pleased with the increase in our contribution and how the portfolio performed in the period. As Marc mentioned as well, the real key takeaway here is the earnings conversion in the first half of this year.
We have been saying this for some time now, but as Kestrel winds off our income base, the efficiency of the rest of our portfolio really is expected to come through, and this is the first time we have seen this in a reporting period whereby a 75% increase in portfolio contribution resulted in a 5x increase in adjusted earnings, and really is a snapshot for what is to come for Ecora in the future when Kestrel is no longer part of our complexion. I will touch on this a little bit more in the next slide. Free cash flow picked up as well in the period. Not perfectly correlated to the increase in the earnings in the period. There are still some timing differences on working capital as we go through the Kestrel transition.
But we would expect in life outside Kestrel for earnings and free cash flow to very closely mirror each other. Turning to the next slide, which gives a summary of our portfolio contribution. I will not go through all of these. I will pick the top three in particular, which really does highlight the stellar performance of our base metals portfolio in the period. Very much driven by operational performance at Voisey's Bay. We saw a near doubling of deliveries under our stream entitlement, and this was in a period of much higher pricing as well. So both combined to result in a very significant uplift for us in the period. Our guidance here at Voisey's Bay remains the same as the beginning of the year, so we expect the second half to continue from a very strong operational perspective.
Some key news in relation to further potential from Voisey's Bay came out very recently, with Vale Base Metals indicating the potential for a 35% increase in mill capacity, which would directly benefit our stream entitlement here as well. So very pleased with the first half from Voisey's and good indications of much more to come at this key asset. Looking next to our copper portfolio, which we were very pleased to see the portfolio contribution coming through here. Mantos Blancos again produced another strong performance in the first half. We saw contribution increase to close to $5 million, which would be close to a 20% cash yield run rate on this asset, which we are very pleased with. There were slightly lower volumes in the period. This was expected. Lower grade mining operations.
But the flip side to this, of course, has been the very strong copper price, where we've seen a 37% increase in realized copper pricing in the first half of 2026 compared to 2025. The exciting news with Mantos, similar to Voisey's, we are expecting a phase II publication from Capstone Copper in the second half of the year, which would pave the way for further volume uplift at this asset, which would be dropped straight to the bottom line for Ecora without any capital commitments. Mimbula continues its ramp-up. This is not exactly apples for apples. H1 last year represented three months of income, whereas H1 in 2026 is the full six months. So pleased to see this coming through, as expected with the ramp-up profile here. More to come from this asset in the second half.
And just to pick one or two others briefly, Four Mile, just to remind everyone, we do have income exposure to uranium from our Four Mile asset. Again, not quite apples with apples. Q1 last year saw the operator stockpiling, whereas the first six months of this year saw a normal kind of sales profile here at the asset. So very strong uranium price tailwinds at the moment. Bodes well for the second half of the year. It's always worth reminding ourselves that we do have some gold exposure in the portfolio through EVBC, which saw very impressive year-on-year growth, given the record levels of gold pricing seen in the first half of 2026. And not to be forgotten is Kestrel, which whilst it only contributed 4% of total portfolio contribution in the first half, we expect most of the volumes to come through in the third quarter.
And our guidance here for total volumes remains unchanged. So overall, very pleased with the portfolio contribution in the first half, and we expect plenty more to come in the second. Our adjusted earnings, and this is the slide I just want to touch on in a little bit of detail, where we saw a 75% increase in contribution results in a 5x increase in adjusted earnings. And this is very much driven at the tax level. In H1 last year, you would have seen adjusted earnings before tax of around $5 million, with $1.9 million of a tax charge associated with that. That's very much reflective of the high tax rate implied by the Kestrel asset, which is a function of it having no cost base in an Australian jurisdiction.
In the first half of this year, we had very little contribution from Kestrel, and as a result, we saw about $20.5 million of adjusted earnings before tax and only 900,000 of tax accrued on that income. So that really is a real takeaway from this slide that I just want to point out. It's very much a vision for the future of what Ecora's portfolio can do when Kestrel finally departs our private royalty area. The other point I just want to pick out on this slide is that our cost base was virtually identical, half one 2026 compared to half one 2025. And with a 75% increase in contribution, this really does daylight the scalability of the royalty model. My next slide is a summary of our balance sheet.
I think the key point to note here is that 87% of our royalty assets are carried on our balance sheet at the lower of amortized cost or impaired value. What that effectively means is that any inherent value uplift in our asset base since acquisition, I have just mentioned Voisey's Bay potential for mill capacity throughput increase, and a phase II expansion of Mantos Blancos. All of those updates imply valuation uplifts in our asset base, but these are not reflected on our balance sheet through IFRS. The total royalty asset valuation should not be understood to be the commercial value of our assets. There is plenty more value in our asset base, which is not reflected on the balance sheet.
As always, it is worth noting as well that of our asset base now, 85% of that is in base metals, which is very pleasing to see as Kestrel unwinds. The next slide is our debt reduction and capital allocation slide. As Marc mentioned earlier, we have seen very meaningful deleveraging since we acquired Mimbula about 15 months ago now. Net debt peaked at that point of about $125 million. This came down to about $85 million at the start of the year, and at the half year was down to about $75 million. The table on the bottom right shows based on broker consensus pricing, where our debt levels could end the year, which would be close to $50 million and $25 million by the end of next year. At these levels, we are very, very comfortable. The implied operating leverage at the end of Q2 was 1.35x.
By the end of the year, if our debt reduces to $50 million, that will be under 1x . Those are very comfortable levels for us to operate at. In terms of capital allocation, we continue to prioritize growth and deleveraging in the period. The natural deleveraging creates plenty of financing flexibility for us to continue our growth journeys. We continue to see very good opportunities. To have financing capability is very important for us. We have a stated policy to pay out between 25%-35% of our free cash flow in dividends. We continued this in the first half, paying 25% of free cash flow, and the free cash flow growth resulted in a tripling of the dividend from GBP 0.6 in H1 2025 to GBP 1.9 in 2026.
This very much fits with our philosophy of growing the dividend as a function of growing our income. I think with that, I will pass back to Marc.
Okay, great. Well, thanks, Kevin. Turning now to Voisey's Bay. I think in short, it has been a fantastic start to the year, and as you can see on the left-hand side of the slide, production levels were right at around nameplate capacity. It is great to see this asset now hitting its stride. In that context, as Kevin mentioned, the Vale Base Metals team thinking about what comes beyond the existing strong production. That comes in two forms. The first mentioned by Kevin relates to the potential to expand mill throughput from 2.8 million tons to 3.8 million tons. Vale has stated that a study is ongoing. It is targeting a final investment decision with regards to that project by 2028, and potentially with increased production rates coming through in 2030.
The second area of expansion relates to the potential to expand the life of the ore body as a result of exploration drilling. You can see on these following two slides, a snapshot as publicly available at the time in 2018 to today, and thus really tangibly providing evidence supporting our view that there is very strong potential for the life of mine to be extended at Voisey's Bay in time, potentially double or more. Very similarly at Mantos Blancos, the operation continues to deliver a strong operational performance. In that context, the Capstone Copper team is considering what is next. The Capstone team submitted an environmental impact assessment permit earlier this year in relation to a potential phase II expansion, and more details in relation to that phase II expansion are expected in the latter half of this year via the publication of a study.
Similarly, the Capstone Copper team is also considering life of mine extension via the potential to extend the mineral resource and reserve via exploration in the pit or in areas adjacent to the existing open-pit operation. Also in the portfolio, Mimbula, Kevin touched on this, so I will be brief. I think the key point to mention is that the SX circuit began commissioning in June, which is a major step forward for the project. From here, within the wider phase II expansion, two of the key areas include construction of an EW circuit as well as an expanded electrowinning capacity. That would be addition of electrowinning cells at the existing electrowinning facility. At Santo Domingo, Capstone Copper continues to progress this project potentially towards an FID decision, or a final investment decision, to sanction the construction of the project.
That is targeted by the Capstone Copper team for later this year, at which, worth a reminder, this is an important royalty potentially to Ecora. At spot prices on average over the first six to eight years, this royalty could generate upwards of $35 million per annum on average over that period. So certainly one to watch. In our specialty metals and uranium portfolio, Maracás Menchen saw a strong ramp-up in sales period on period, which is positive. I think from a more strategic perspective, excuse me, the offtake agreement or the sales agreement secured from the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency certainly highlights the strategic nature of the Maracás Menchen operation, particularly given the majority of the world's vanadium supply is produced in China and Russia. Our rare earths royalty Palabora, a project owned by Rainbow Rare Earths.
The Rainbow team continues to progress a definitive feasibility study towards completion. Rainbow Rare Earths is well-capitalized to do so, having raised approximately $15 million earlier this year. Last, the Patterson Corridor East royalty. This is an earlier stage royalty over a mineralization that has been discovered by NexGen in close proximity to NexGen's Arrow deposit. NexGen continues to drill the deposit and continues to deliver what are geologically exceptional results. We are very excited to see the continuation of the drill program and subsequent results, and in time, look forward to NexGen releasing a maiden resource statement. This slide is a bit busy, but we have sought to separate the key de-risking events in the near term and the medium term, and secondly, to group them by order of stage of development within the Ecora portfolio.
That would include the first layer being producing assets, next being the potential expansion of producing mines or the restart of operations. Third, being the greenfield operations. Last, projects which are not yet, as of this time anyway, expected to generate royalty income for Ecora in the short term, for example, Patterson Corridor East, but certainly have the potential as they are de-risked to drive significant NAV expansion at Ecora as the royalty increases in value. I think the last point actually to make on this slide, if we sat here looking at this exact same slide a few years ago, I think we would observe that a number of these points were clearly still a few more years away.
It is a very exciting time for that next wave of organic growth, specifically given many of these catalysts that were a few years away are now in the short term, as I mentioned, potentially as early as the second half of this year. Very important, too, we think, daylighting and providing more confidence on the potential to take cash flow from our portfolio contribution rather from our critical minerals royalty portfolio and research analyst consensus for this year of, call it around GBP 60 million-G BP 65 million to, by the end of the decade, potentially in excess of well over GBP 100 million. This is a slide that you will have seen before in terms of mapping our royalty portfolio. Although we have presented it somewhat differently.
We have presented it following that layering to better identify the cash generation potential that exists within our royalty portfolio, but also layered in terms of risk profile. Starting with the producing royalty portfolio, that is expected to generate approximately GBP 70 million in 2026 based on research analyst forecasts. That next leg of growth relates to, as we discussed earlier, the potential brownfield expansions of the Voisey's Bay mine, as well as the Mantos Blancos copper operation. What is particularly interesting about these two is that as of today, while they appear highly likely as a result of what appear to be attractive economics, they are not yet sufficiently detailed such that these assets are forecast into Ecora cash flow forecasts or net asset value calculations by research analysts covering Ecora.
That is certainly something to watch given its potential medium-term cash flow impact, but also NAV accretion potential should that occur in the future. The next layer relates to projects that are not yet in production, greenfield projects or operations that are expected to restart from having previously produced, and that really in that category relates to the Nifty royalty. Longer term, the portfolio has significant optionality, and in particular, as I mentioned, the Patterson Corridor East royalty, as well as the Cañariaco copper deposit, which is now owned by Fortescue. We thought, as we come to the end of the presentation, to pause and sort of contrast where Ecora was historically and contrast that in a way to the next chapter, so to speak, and where Ecora is now and towards the future.
When you think about where and how Ecora historically derived its cash flow, that was very much derived from a single commodity, dependent on one operator primarily and one asset. The cash flows were ample but constrained in terms of life and were increasingly depleted every single year as a function of mining operations expected to be moving out of our Kestrel royalty area. Last, benefited from very limited optionality or mine expansion potential. That is a major contrast to the complexion of the portfolio today. First of all, the portfolio is much more diversified across commodities. Similarly, much more diversified by counterparty. The portfolio offers a strong organic growth profile that has been fully funded and purchased. From a cash flow perspective, our key royalties benefit from multi-decade mine lives and in addition, as we mentioned earlier, from further potential life of mine extension.
Any way you cut it, I think what you are really ultimately contrasting is a business that historically had relatively low quality of earnings, and today has significantly improving quality of earnings. As a result, when you overlay that with the organic growth profile in this business that exists, the strong fundamental outlook for the commodity basket to which Ecora has exposure, our position to continue to grow the portfolio inorganically via acquisitions. Generally speaking, we continue to believe the portfolio offers a very attractive entry point. To summarize, and with reference to 2026 anyways, we are certainly on track to deliver volume growth year-on-year from 2025 to 2026, in particular from our key base metals royalties. The portfolio is positioned to potentially benefit from a number of catalysts and de-risking events in our near term and medium term portfolio.
We are continuing to expect significant debt reduction, providing the balance sheet flexibility to acquire new royalties should attractive opportunities meeting our investment criteria present themselves. Furthermore, our debt reduction is potentially accelerated in the second half of this year as a result of commodity price tailwinds. Last, it is a relevant point in the context of persistent inflationary pressures. As Kevin mentioned, Ecora demonstrated flat year-on-year operating costs. Given as a royalty model, we do not have direct exposure to operating costs of the operations producing these minerals. The royalty model inherently is quite defensive in any inflationary environment or periods of extended inflationary pressures. With that, we will pause here and would be happy to take any questions you may have.
Thank you. Thank you to the management team for the presentation. We are now going to start the question and answer session. Just a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please type them into the Q&A box situated on the right-hand side of the screen. I would like to start with the first question. Hats off to the entire team for a wonderful H1 report. Everything management said it was going to do has started to prove out. My question is, how are you planning to attack the valuation gap between Ecora and its non-precious metal royalty peers? Marc?
Well, thank you for the kind words. That's certainly appreciated and is a function of the very hard work the team at Ecora has done for the better part of 12, 14 years, in anticipation of the roll-off of Kestrel to diversify the portfolio from a cash generation perspective, but also to add growth. So of course, it's a pleasure to see it coming together, and it's even more of a pleasure to see the portfolio demonstrate its cash generation potential that we as a management team have always known existed. As we look to the future and as we've seen our quality of earnings increase, in parallel, we've observed an expansion in Ecora's relative valuation multiples.
We've also seen a significant change in the Ecora shareholder base very much towards growth, and we anticipate in the future as the portfolio continues to deliver, combined with the potential to further diversify the business via acquisitions, and of course, ensuring that we continue to tell the story effectively so as many people as possible know about Ecora, given Ecora within the wider royalty sector is quite a differentiated royalty company. There are very few companies, if any, royalty companies of focus with 80% of their net asset value in base metals, 50% in copper, of our size and scale, which is quite attractive, of course, in today's world, and particularly with copper prices, with the outlook for copper being very attractive, as demonstrated by near-record copper prices today.
Thank you. We'll go onto our next question here. Would you rather acquire a smaller number of very high-quality royalties at attractive prices or deploy more capital into larger number of opportunities to diversify the portfolio?
Our strategy at Ecora is to focus on quality over quantity. As a consequence, we have been happy to be patient until such time opportunities that we believe are attractive have presented themselves. In a very conceptual and theoretical world, all else being equal, one would, I think, naturally prefer four transactions that are of equal quality as opposed to one transaction purely as a function of diversification and reduced concentration risk. Rarely do opportunities present themselves as cleanly as this. At least at a minimum, I hope you understand how we approach the importance of ensuring the consistent application of discipline in our investment criteria, balanced against what we believe to be an incredible opportunity for Ecora as a platform as it continues to grow.
Thank you. Free cash flow was $12.1 million in H1, but adjusted earnings were $19.5 million. How would investors think about the substantial coverage of earnings into free cash flow?
Yeah, I'll take that one. Yes, as I said in the presentation, we didn't see perfect correlation between earnings and cash flow in the first half of the year. This is very much a function of the timing of certain payments that are due, whether that is tax or certain costs that we incur through our normal cycle. There is a timing difference impact to our tax profile. A lot of the tax that we paid on Kestrel's earnings last year were paid in the first half of this year. So it will be a period of time until we see that correlation working much better. That very much is the direction of travel that we expect to see in the coming years. If we look at our portfolio generally, Voisey's Bay, we pay no tax on that. We acquired very substantial tax losses in that structure.
As income rolls on from other assets and ramps up from existing assets, we'll see reactivation of certain tax losses in our wider structure, which the 5% effective tax rate on our pre-tax adjusted earnings is kind of a vision of what's to come from this portfolio. Albeit it hasn't fully caught up in free cash flow conversion in the first half of the year.
Brilliant. Thank you. On to the next question. Can you remind us of your capital allocation framework?
Yes. I will take that one as well. Our capital allocation framework, effectively, we have kind of four pillars to that. The business is very much in growth mode. We continue to see very good opportunities to transact. Marc has mentioned we are very disciplined in how we do that. But growth is very important to us in terms of continuing to diversify our portfolio, both in terms of earnings diversification and NAV diversification. That very much is our focus. The second pillar of our capital allocation is designed to provide balance sheet strength. This is, for us, very important because we think one of the main reasons the royalty business model is so valued is because it gives a de-risked exposure to the natural resources sector or the mining sector.
We feel it is very important not to compromise that through providing that exposure through a levered vehicle, and I think for us, it is very important that we have a strong balance sheet which enables us to transact and continue growing. The third pillar is distributions to shareholders via dividends. This is based on and it kind of has resulted in a function of our growth ambitions, whereby we will pay between 25%-35% of free cash flow in dividends to our shareholders. We are very conscious that for some shareholders, it is important that there is a cash element of dividend distribution in order to hold, notwithstanding that those shareholders are also very much supportive of growth. Elsewhere, we look at other aspects to capital allocation, whether that is buybacks we have done in the past.
We will determine those based on where we are at any point in what has historically been a very cyclical industry. That capital allocation framework was crafted a number of years ago and is still the principles that we abide by today.
Brilliant. Thank you very much for that answer. On to the next question. Which parts of the business are growing fastest at the moment, and where do you see the biggest opportunity?
From an organic growth profile, our copper and base metals exposure has demonstrated the strongest growth, whether that be from 2024, 2025, 2026. I would expect that to continue towards the end of this decade and beyond. 50% of our NAV is copper exposure, and in time, as these royalties de-risk and start generating cash flow, copper is expected to generate just over 50% of Ecora's revenue. So much more to come in base metals and copper in time. In terms of how we look at inorganic royalty and stream acquisitions, we, of course, for anyone who has been following Ecora for some time, this won't come as a surprise, but from a commodity perspective, our strategy is to focus on critical minerals with a particular lean into base metals and copper.
Thank you. Voisey's Bay and Mantos Blancos are showing strong growth, while Santo Domingo and other projects offer a longer-term upside. How should investors think about the balance between near-term cash generation and the longer-dated development pipeline?
Well, we have sought to structure Ecora, and you will see it in some of the slides, is offering a layered growth profile. First, Ecora underpinned by producing royalties, second by the medium-term royalties that are expected to deliver growth by function of brownfield production expansions. The third bucket, which is referenced in the question, relates to Santo Domingo, but that is a third layer within our growth profile, which would relate to greenfield projects. The longest relates to longer-term royalties that are not expected to generate income, but certainly have the potential to drive significant NAV per share accretion. When you think about the Ecora growth profile, it is very much a mix between free cash flow growth, but also capital gains potential or capital growth potential or NAV accretion potential initially as assets are de-risked towards first production and subsequently as they begin generating royalty income.
Thank you. Do you see copper remaining the biggest driver of Ecora's growth over the next five years?
Based on the portfolio complexion today, absolutely. That is obviously a deliberate effort to set copper at the core of the Ecora portfolio, and we have sought to position this business to copper for the better part of a decade. So it is great to see the copper market evolve as was expected in forecasts when we sought to acquire and secure attractive entry points into copper over that period of time. We really like copper in part because copper is, as a conductor of electricity, incredibly diversified across the electrification thematic.
With copper prices currently providing significant tailwind, what would the underlying earnings picture look like if copper prices were lower?
Well, I think today's spot prices are in excess actually of most research analysts' forecasts for Ecora. So innately, we have either tailwinds on earnings or a margin of safety should they come lower. As you look to the future, the long-term copper price forecasts by research analysts that is assumed across most equity research analysts today is around $5.80 per pound. Excuse me, $4.80 per pound, which is well below the spot price, which is $6.70 per pound. So there does appear to be significant upside, I would argue actually, in the longer term by reference to where people are forecasting future cash flows at Ecora and the value of our copper royalties rather than downside based on where the price is today, and particularly when combined with the longer-term supply-demand fundamentals for copper.
Thank you. Is Ecora now at the point where the existing portfolio can generate enough cash to fund its own growth?
Yeah, that is a really interesting question, and I will comment on this and hand it over to Kevin. I think in short, Ecora, we have deliberately sought to focus on producing royalties in part because they have allowed us to bootstrap our debt capacity such that each additional acquisition has increased our cash flow, but also debt capacity, and subsequently bootstrapped in part to fund the next acquisition and so forth, which over time has significantly increased our ability to fund transactions off our balance sheet. It is important to deploy our balance sheet very prudently and conservatively. With that, I will hand it over to Kevin to add additional thoughts in this area.
Yeah. Thanks, Marc. I think when I look at our balance sheet and our borrowing capability, if we hit our numbers on the analyst consensus of net debt by $ 50 million at the end of next year, our borrowing facility, including the accordion feature, would have a total capacity of GBP 225 million. So plenty of balance sheet room to continue to grow via that avenue. I think obviously the key metrics there is operational leverage. At the end of Q2, we had 1.35x leverage. That will be under 1x by the end of the year. Our borrowing facility allows us to go to 3.5x for leverage. The balance sheet certainly does support growth absolutely. As I said earlier, I think we are very conscious of not being over-levered.
We are very comfortable with the level of income diversification in our portfolio that generates very strong cash. We never want to get into a position where debt becomes a poison pill in our portfolio in periods of pricing volatility. So, we are very comfortable with the financing flexibility we have today, both in terms of the headroom that we have on our balance sheet, but also given the share price performance over the last year or so.
Thank you. What would make you walk away from an acquisition, even if it looked attractive on headline NAV or expected return?
Well, that's an interesting question, and it's one that Kevin and I could easily spend an hour talking about. We won't, which I'm sure many of you will be happy to hear. But in short, our investment criteria target relatively low-cost operations within their specific commodity complex, established mining jurisdictions. We seek exposure to strong operating teams and strong counterparties. Of course, we target opportunities that through time offer potential upside, whether it be life of mine extension or via entry point, attractive commodity price outlooks over time, which is particularly relevant given some of our royalty exposures provide 20, 30-year exposure to these underlying commodities. Specifically in terms of what might make us walk away, it could be any combination thereof of the factors I just mentioned. Ultimately, when one is assessing the financial perspective of a royalty, you have really two key parameters.
You have production and the commodity price. I think the commodity price assumptions is self-explanatory. In other words, is the commodity price necessary to generate those returns a level at which we anticipate seeing over a multiyear horizon? Cyclically speaking, in particular in some of the critical minerals suite, these cyclical entry points can be very important to what sort of returns profile is expected. Secondly, this is, I think, an area that we take very seriously and spend a lot of time diligencing, relates to that production profile. I think this is in some ways what that question is getting at. In other words, the headline transaction might look attractive if one just assumes the stated production profile.
But there are certainly instances where, by virtue of our due diligence, we've identified instances historically where there might not be as much certainty as we would've liked in terms of the deliverability of that royalty profile.
Thank you. Does Ecora's smaller size actually give you an advantage when negotiating deals because you can pursue transactions that are too small to move the needle for the larger royalty companies?
Yeah. I think Kevin and I have only really worked at Ecora in a smaller royalty company. We cannot really comment specifically as to whether a larger company might have advantages in the sense of organizational. But I do believe that our competitive advantage specifically is in the form of our focus on a suite of commodities where there are fewer competitors. For example, there are many royalty companies focused on precious metals. There are not nearly as many focused on critical minerals. That creates a great competitive dynamic, we think, and has allowed us historically to secure high-quality royalties with great counterparties, we believe anyways. As we sit here today and we look at the opportunity set and we look at our growth pipeline, we are confident that we will continue to be able to grow the business in line with our stated investment criteria.
Thank you. How transformational could Santo Domingo be for Ecora if it goes ahead?
I think it is in many ways a continuation of the transformation of Ecora. Today in 2026, with Kestrel cash flows expected in Q3, we are really at this final point in a multi-year transformation from, as I mentioned earlier in the presentation, very concentrated in Kestrel and coal with a short-dated mine life towards the business as it looks today. The Santo Domingo, its royalty itself certainly has the potential to generate over $35 million per year for Ecora over the first six to eight years, which is more than half of the portfolio contribution generated in 2025. But that is also in the context of other organic growth opportunities within the Ecora portfolio.
That is, I think, perhaps the most interesting thing about the complexion of Ecora as it exists today, that its growth profile, in addition to the revenue profile, is more diversified than it has ever been, at least in our time at Ecora. We believe that from here, further diversifying the portfolio by seeking inorganic royalty acquisitions, it can only improve this business and its portfolio and its diversification, driving down volatility and will hopefully translate to an increase in valuation multiples from which Ecora shareholders would directly benefit.
Thank you. What do you think the market is currently underestimating about Ecora?
Well, if you were to assume research analyst consensus asset valuations of all our royalties, as research analysts do, they will take the expected cash flows of Ecora's royalty portfolio asset by asset, come out, discount them to present value. If you were to take that consensus average and compare that to the market price of Ecora, that would imply a significant portion of the non-producing portfolio is not priced into the market. On that basis, given the quality of the growth, given the commodity outlook for copper in particular amongst others, we continue to believe Ecora offers a highly attractive entry point.
Thank you. We are now moving on to our final question. What is giving you the most confidence about the second half?
In many ways the first half delivered exactly as we expected. Therefore, we are going into a second half where there were no real surprises in the portfolio in the first half. Going into the second half, at least on H2 results, our operating partners have not given any indication of an expected difference in terms of underlying production volumes versus their full-year guidance. We are also expecting to see Kestrel return in the third quarter, which should certainly contribute some great cash flows in addition to the critical minerals portfolio. Last but certainly not least, commodity price tailwinds. Thus far into the second half of the year, as both Kevin and I mentioned, we have seen very strong commodity prices on a historical basis, but also in absolute terms with copper thus far setting multiple new records thus far into the second half of the year.
Thank you. We have no further questions, so I will hand over to the management team for some closing remarks.
Well, in short, thank you very much for joining us today. We are very delighted to provide this update. We believe it represents a major step forward in Ecora's evolution and a true indication of the cash generation potential that exists in this portfolio, starting today with just the producing royalties. In time, we believe that this portfolio can generate significantly more cash flows for shareholders. So we look forward in time to de-risking that next wave of organic growth and speaking to you about it in the future.
Thank you to the management team for joining us today. That concludes the Ecora Royalties PLC investor presentation. Please take a moment to complete a short survey following the event. The recording of this presentation will be made available on Engage Investor, and I hope you have had an enjoyable webinar.