Greggs plc (LON:GRG)
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May 1, 2026, 4:47 PM GMT
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CMD 2021
Oct 5, 2021
Right. Good afternoon, everybody. Thank you for coming to join us in person. Good to meet people face to face after what seems to be a terminal period of Teams meetings. This meeting is obviously a combination of physical and virtual.
So welcome to those of you who are joining us online as such. And we hope to be able to show you why we're feeling so optimistic about the future for Greggs and to introduce you to the wider Greggs team. So we've got Two principal aims really in this meeting today. The first is for you to see the growth prospects that lie ahead for Greg's. We've been very successful.
We've enjoyed tremendous success over the last 6 to 7 years as we've repositioned the business from being a traditional bakery business to focus on food on the go market. But we've achieved a 5% market share, even though we're confined basically to the walk in and take out channel, just one of the channels available in the market, and confined to the daytime trading hours, which is really only about half of the market's value. So we think the opportunity for us to grow is very exciting and the opportunity is there for us to take market share in those channels and dayparts we don't currently compete in. So We hope to bring that alive for you today as we scale next generation GEGs as we call it to become that fully fledged multi channel food on the go brand for all times of the day. We think we've got a very clear strategic line of sight to that opportunity and therefore we set an ambitious target, the ambitious target being to double our revenue over the next 5 years and we'll try and bring that to life for you today in the component parts of that so that you can see why we have that belief in that target.
The second objective is to introduce you to the wider team. I'm conscious that many of you know us of old, would have met me and Richard countless times, but you won't have met the wider team. So The whole team is here, the whole team that report into me. And this is the team that has delivered that success. It's strength and depth on the bench, as I call it, and they're more than capable of taking the business on to deliver the opportunities that lie ahead of us in terms of the growth that we're so excited about.
So I'm just going to introduce you to the agenda really. I'm going to try and play a smaller part as possible therefore in today's proceedings. I'm going to sit at that end of the table. And when we get to the questions and answer sessions, Richard will take the chair so that he will manage that process for us, which will prevent me from jumping in and answering all the questions personally. So The idea is that you gain a real exposure to the wider team and what they do in the business and the questions that you may have about that.
So let's start with the agenda. In a moment, Richard is going to present our high level financial vision for the next 5 years. He's going to show the main building blocks in our growth ambitions and the investment that we need to achieve that. And obviously, you'll have seen a pre site of that in the statement that we released this morning. And then the idea is simply as we take each of the building blocks in turn and we ask the key accountable director to stand up and take center stage and tell you a bit more about add some more color behind the opportunity that we see in those different areas.
So Richard will hand over to Raymond Reynolds. He is our Property and Franchise Director. Each of the directors, by the way, will introduce themselves and say a little bit about themselves just so you've got some idea of where they've come from. And then we'll then take questions after those first two sessions, which as I say Richard will chair. And then we move on to Greg's lunch.
And again, Hopefully, that will reacquaint you with how Richard and I have mostly bribed most of you when we had face to face meetings in the past. Then Malcolm Copeland takes over. He's our Commercial Director and he talks about our plans for extending the trading hours into the evening. That segues lovely, very nicely into delivery because delivery is going to be a key part of our ability to compete effectively in the evening day parts, which Roshan Currie, our Retail Operations Director will take you through. We then take more questions, a break for tea, there might be even a sweet treat potentially.
And then we return after tea and Hannah Squirell, who is our Customer Director and Marketing Director, she takes over and talks to you then about why we think we can work with our rewards program and our marketing initiatives in the future to grow customer numbers and value through the Greg's Reward scheme and other partnerships. Then we take more questions because that's quite an interesting in-depth session. So I'm sure we've got plenty of questions there. And we end then with just What do we need to do all that with, which is the platform on which we deliver that, which is our supply chain and our IT infrastructure. So Gavin Kirk, our Supply Chain Director, he will take you through that.
And then Tony Taylor takes you through where we are with the IT and the infrastructure changes that we need to make as well. There'll be a final Q and A and then I'll close hopefully and everything will be done by 4:30 latest, that's the plan. So hopefully that will all work. So I'm now going to hand over to Richard. Oh, sorry, 2 things I've missed.
I should say that before I do that. 2 things we're not going to talk about. 1 is the Greggs pledge. So the Greggs pledge, which we launched back in February this year, is our commitment to ESG targets. We've had a separate sustainability meeting with people particularly interested in that side of our business.
We will do that again. If we were to include that today, it would have just taken too long because there's so much that we're doing in that respect and there will be so many questions around it that we decided to keep that separate and tackle that separately. 1 Greg's pledged decision we have made that does impact on today is that we decided not to print all of the presentations and thereby save Well over 100 trees. So all of the presentations will be available on the website and obviously you can make notes and if you need to print any The presentation you can do that at any time at your leisure, but we didn't think it was right to have piles of presentations hanging around. The other area we're not going to talk about is the area that you've seen we made mention in the statement, which is our plans international.
Why? Because we don't know we haven't got any plans yet. Basically, all we've done is create a small research team that will go away to examine that and take that first step. I mean it's featured in our strategy now for several years on the strategic road map as I've published in the past. It's out there in the outer reaches.
We're in no rush to do it. We've no need to because of potential for expansion here in the UK is, as you'll hear in a minute, very good. But at some point, we believe Greg can venture into international markets. We don't know where yet. And so we've set up a small team to begin to do some serious research into that and we will update the market when we've got more views on where those places might be and how we might do So that I think is everything I should have said.
So I'm now going to hand over to Richard and hopefully you'll hear no more from me for a few hours yet.
Great. Thank you, Roger. So before the team present the detail of the strategic plan, I just want to frame it with some of the financial implications and particularly break out how we might double the size of the business over the next 5 years. So firstly, At a high level, if you think about the shape of what we're talking you through today, half of the growth that we're going to talk about comes from developing the size of our estate and half of it comes from developing the like for like sales in the existing estate. So that's the left hand side and the right hand side of this first chart.
So you know we've been talking about the potential to have more than 3,000 Greggs stores in the U. K. And we've been progressing towards this at a rate of about 100 net openings each year. But given the current property market conditions, we now believe we can accelerate the pace of this over the next few years and plan to target 150 net openings, along with a faster rate of relocation in the existing estate, which should support our multi channel ambitions to grow sales in our smaller shops. Then in the like for like area on the right of this chart, we'll describe step by step the different opportunities we see to extend trading into the evening, to further develop the delivery service and broaden our customer base via the Greg Zap with its loyalty scheme and a CRM marketing approach.
And all of these leverage our existing asset and cost base, which is why it might push us to look for bigger shops as we expand and relocate the estate. Now the bridge chart that I've just put up shows the relative size of these sales opportunities that would get us to this ambitious target. And what we're not shying away from the fact that doubling turnover of 5 years is an ambitious target, but we think it's the right thing to gun for. So the underlying business has still got a degree of recovery to make following the pandemic, but you can see that by far the biggest opportunity comes from growth in the size of the estate. The evening and delivery initiatives have a degree of interdependency, which we've shown in the overlap on that chart.
And then the digital loyalty and CRM element, which is probably the most difficult to size, is potentially significant. There's also an interdependency with the new shops in that the contribution from opening new shops, of course, benefits from the development of all the other channels. So if you are Successful in developing the evening day part and delivery, then you end up with bigger new shops as well. We've attributed that growth to the estate growth Side of it as well. So let's quickly run through each element and then my colleagues will take you through the detail.
So let's start with the estate. On the left hand side of this chart, I've broken out the various elements of net sales growth, so you can see the components. And Raymond will talk about the shape of the acquisition Pipeline shortly. But from a financial perspective, the first two lines on this, the number of shops will open from a company managed perspective plus the number of shops we will relocate within the existing catchments are important because they drive the retail CapEx requirement that I will come on to later. Then so we've got 175 company managed openings and then we expect around 50 a year in partnership with our franchisees And that's our best estimate.
Obviously, that's something we're not as in control of, but historically, that's a good run rate that we've managed to achieve. And then on the closure side, we've got 50 shops, which are the flip side of the relocations and then another 25 each year in catchments where we'll reduce our presence. So overall, a target of 150 net openings as long as the opportunities are there and importantly as long as we continue to make good returns on capital. So we won't follow that blindly. If we've got troubles making the returns, Then there are processes in the business that slow that down, reexamine things and obviously that's an important control.
Then on the right hand side of this chart, I've laid out a refresh of how we think about return on capital for the two classes of shop openings, company managed and franchise. We did this a couple of years ago, but I think it's relevant when you're thinking about the growth in the estate to know how they contribute. It's based on 20 9 performance pre COVID because last year wouldn't have been a good year to base it on. And you'll see that the average company managed shop is still turning over more in a system sales sense at £12,000 a week than the franchise shop at £10,000 a week. But that gap has been growing because the nature of the franchise locations is that they are in fast growing parts of the market.
In terms of income to Greg's then, obviously, we get a lot more from the company managed shop than the franchise Shop income, the franchise shop income is made up of a franchise fee on the system sales, plus the turnover that we make selling our products to the franchise partner. So clearly, we make a much bigger contribution from a company managed shop. But there's also a bigger capital commitment because we're responsible for the shop Fitting as well as the supply chain costs. And there is a differential impact on working capital between the two models as well. So in summary, I mean, both routes to market give a good return on capital, which is the fundamental point.
But we still make stronger returns overall on our company managed But by working with franchise partners, we get access to parts of the market that we wouldn't otherwise be able to reach with our company managed approach. So moving on to the evening ambition. After lunch, Malcolm will talk to you about The significant opportunity we see in developing a greater presence in the evening daypart. Financially, this is attractive because we leverage our existing retail assets and cost base, albeit that we think in the short term, the wage to sales cost ratio is likely to be higher as we develop this in the same way as they were when we grew the breakfast market. Currently, we've got just over 100 shops that trade to 8 p.
M, but we think in the long term around 2 thirds of the estate Could support this. And so we're targeting extending from 100 to 500 by the end of 2022. And if we can achieve 2 thirds of the market penetration we see in the lunchtime market in these shops, Then the incremental sales opportunity 5 years from now could be £180,000,000 And of that, we expect that about 40% of that is likely to be delivery rather than walk in. And delivery is key to making more shops viable in the evening daypart. And this is a change from where we were talking about evening this time 2 years ago when we were Some trials, we're really thinking about evening as a walk in opportunity.
Delivery has very much changed that opportunity because you can imagine sort of there are say residential area shops We never imagined we'd have a walk in trade in the evening, which now have a role to play in servicing the delivery market. So that leads us nicely on to delivery, which has been important part of our strategic development over the last couple of years. And Roshin will talk about our plans for digital channels later. But again, this is an area that can leverage our existing retail asset and cost base by driving incremental Contribution from it. So in our work to date, we found that delivery customers are willing to pay a slight price premium for the convenience of delivery And this partially compensates us for the margin that we pay to the aggregator who provides the service.
In terms of our The delivery channel is relatively efficient to service because ordering and payment is made online and it also presents opportunities to control waste better by making product to order. So we think that by 2026, about 1450 of our existing shops in the existing estate will be involved in servicing the delivery channel and that maybe 80% of the growth thereafter will be in locations that are Suitable for delivery as well. And we've assessed the sales opportunity about at about $100,000,000 across our existing daytime Largely daytime operations, plus a further 70 from delivery in the evening daypart. So ultimately, we think that In the long term, about 80% of our company managed estate will have a role to play in supporting delivery. Moving on then to loyalty and CRM and this is the element that I find most difficult to model because we have the Least evident so far, but it is amongst the most exciting.
So the recent relaunch of our Greg's app lays the foundations for growth in this area and we will set out now to recruit many more customers to benefit from our loyalty mechanic and then take a CRM approach to offering them more reasons to visit more often.
And as
you will hear from Hannah and Tony, most of the infrastructure investment to support this is now in place. So we'll increase our marketing investment in the months years ahead to grow significantly the number of customers that we engage with in this way. Now we already know how customers respond to the Greg's Reward scheme in terms of visit frequency and average transaction value. And we've also got insight as to how our competitors, a number of whom are ahead of us on this journey, perform in terms of CRM. So in sizing this, it is difficult to gauge, but given the range of opportunities we can see, we've set ourselves a target to add $140,000,000 of additional sales by 2026 And we'll progressively increase marketing investment as long as we're seeing the benefits come through in that sales journey.
Now as Roger said, you won't be hearing too much about the greatest pledge today, but it's still firmly at the heart of our plans and also our financial planning. And we recognize that improving the sustainability of our offer will involve some margin investment as we make choices that are better for the planet and for our customers. So we expect that success in driving the ambitious targets in this plan will leverage some degree of margin. We intend to reinvest between 50 and 100 basis points each year in making sure that we deliver on our promises under the Greg's pledge and still remaining outstanding value for money. So there are swings and roundabouts in this.
The whole principle of driving like for like growth Leverage is margin, but we do acknowledge there are some reinvestment points as well. So just to touch on the support platforms that we'll need to fulfill all this ambition. Firstly, looking at our supply infrastructure. Since 2013, we fundamentally changed our internal supply chain basis to make it fit for expansion. And this chart shows the stages of the journey and how the cost of supply, which is the red line, has been lowered progressively as Gavin's team have moved from the traditional bakery model to one that's focused on consolidated manufacturing platforms and more flexible logistics.
And it's been a long journey. You can see How much is taken out of the cost of sales though? There's obviously been a CapEx investment in doing that and the model itself is now more capital intensive, more automated, but substantially more efficient. And the same thing is true of our IT infrastructure and Tony will take you through the investments we've made in ERP, business intelligence and increasingly our consumer digital infrastructure. This has been absolutely essential to give us a solid base on which And we expect technology to be at the core of our plans in the years ahead.
So we've allocated an increased level of investment to technology in our future plans This will be key to our ability to manage change and growth. So let's just look at some of that investment. You know we've got a strong record in terms of the returns we've made on capital invested in the business. And before COVID, our return on capital employed reached 29% And that's in old money before lease accounting. But even with leases capitalized, it would have been 20%.
The supply chain investments that we've made in the last 5 or 6 years have mainly released capacity from our existing sites. And the next phase of our journey will build out from this efficient platform to take our supply capacity beyond 3,000 shops. Gavin will take you through the thinking later, but in the short term, we're looking at the potential for an additional Southern campus to support increased capacity for both manufacturing and logistics. And the chart on this slide lays out a possible phasing for that CapEx that would support our ambitions. The blue element is the supply chain investment that we've been talking about.
And the green element is in our retail estate. Now the retail expenditure reflects the accelerated rate of shop opening and relocation, but also the resumption of our shop refurbishment program to support our multichannel development. And the numbers behind that chart were in the RNS that we put out this morning. So on this basis, peak capital requirement would be across 2023 as the Southern Supply Campus is built And CapEx would return to a more normal level relative to turnover at the end of the plan period. And the precise phasing of that Investment will, of course, be determined by the rate of progress that we make.
But that's an estimate that would support us getting to the ambitious target. So just to wrap things up then, in summary, we see opportunities to grow both the size of the estate and to leverage our existing store base more efficiently through a range of new channels. We'll continue to invest in our price competitiveness as well as even higher standards in terms of the sustainability of our customer offer and we'll self fund our investment plans maintaining a net cash position and keeping a firm focus on return on capital throughout. You know that we've begun the process of reestablishing the dividend, by which I mean the ordinary dividend and we expect to target normal distributions, which are 2 times covered by earnings. But we also see the potential for additional distributions, both in the near term as we rebalance cash and beyond the peak investment phase of this plan.
So that's all from me for now. I will be taking questions, but I'm going to first hand over to Raymond, who will tell you more about our plans to develop the Greggs Estate.
Thanks, Richard. Yes, my name is Raymond Reynolds, as Richard said. I'm the Business Development and Property Director. I've been with Greg's for 35 years. I'm proud to say it.
I developed my career in Greg's through retail and general management I was the Retail Director up until about 4 years ago when I moved into this role. So as of last Saturday, Saturday, 2nd October, our shop estate had 2,146 shops, 1785 company operated and 3 61 franchise shops. But we are active all the time. And interestingly, this week alone, we will open another 6 shops in Dunfermline, Nottingham, Glasgow, Bedminster, Swallow And also interestingly, on Saturday, it had just gone past, we opened a fabulous new shop And Canary Wharf, which we're very proud of. And I'll say more about our ambitions for Central London a little later on in the presentation.
Grace has a track record of opening around 100 net new shops per annum, and you can see On the slide over the last 5 years, the numbers we have achieved and they do average around 100 apart from the 20 20 year where obviously we're COVID impacted. We have announced that we have ambition to increase the shop openings to 150 per year. The reason why we're confident we can do that successfully is that the certainly the property market is offering more opportunity for us. COVID has certainly had an impact on that. And there are more vacancies and rental levels are more reasonable in a lot of the markets we want to be in.
And certainly the digital channels that Roger mentioned at the start, which are growing, offers more opportunity to take more money through our shops. So both of those combined Give us the belief that we can increase the pace and do it well and do it successfully. We have previously announced that we have a 3,000 shop target, at least 3,000 shops in the UK and Working towards that, we will be offering shops, where customers have more channels to shop, whether they want to walk in and take out as our traditional customer does, walk in and sit down in a kind of coffee shop environment, have delivery or have click and collect, pre order their goods where we can now offer meat to order in the future and they'd be able to collect that when it's ready for them, collect that when it's ready for them in the shop. We'll also be able to offer shops that are from small kiosks through to large coffee shops and drive thrus and we'll be offering these to customers whether they are at work, whether they're traveling, whether they're shopping or whether they're in their car and need to access something from their car.
We want to be very convenient for all customers in that respect. So the versatility of the brand is huge. We have the opportunity to open shops in every location type, Certainly the case of traditional towns and suburban locations where we've traditionally grown the business, we're well represented there, but there are still opportunities there. But the major opportunities going forward where growth exists are in retail parks, roadside locations, which include drive throughs, Travel locations, whether that be rail, air or underground, petrol forecourts, industrial estates, inside supermarkets and Indeed in universities and hospitals going forward. Just taking each of them in turn.
In retail parts, we currently have 119 shops. In roadside locations, which include drive throughs, we have 144 shops. In petrol forecourts, we have 249 shops. And rail stations and airports combined, we have 13 shops. In the London Underground, we only have a couple so far.
In industrial estate, it's 86. Inside supermarkets, we have 13. And in universities and hospitals, we have 4 universities and 1 hospital shop currently. And lastly, in Central London, we have 19 shops, I'll say more about that in a minute. Just putting all that together in one chart and for the Eagle Eye Among you, the first column shows the current shops trading in those location types.
These are not all the location types we trade. So it doesn't add up to 2,146. More traditional locations are not on this chart. These are the ones where we'll get most opportunity. So you can see the number of shops trading in that central column.
On the right hand side, the column there are the locations in the U. K. Market where we have potential to trade. So Taking a couple of examples, I won't get through them all. We have 249 Petrol Fore Courts in the U.
K. There are 8,300 Petrol Fore Courts out there, Of which we rent 249. We have 119 retail parks And there are over 1200 in the U. K. And retail parts are designed as those parts with at least 3 trading units within them.
So they'd go from small right through to the massive ones. We have 144 roadside locations, But there is no database in terms of how many roadside locations there are and could be in the future because these are all individual developments by developers. So but suffice to say, it's a significant location type. And lastly, Greg's is underrepresented in Central London And we have 19 shops in the geography where another major sandwich based food and go retailer has between 152 100 shops. So looking at this and our experience over the last few years gives us confidence that 3,000 shops, I don't know, in excess of 3,000 shops are more than achievable.
Moving on and looking at the same question from a different angle. We've looked at our shop density per 1,000 people in the population in postcode areas. And looking at it from that angle also supports our view that over 3,000 shops is possible. Our current estate of 2,150 shops calculated through results in a density of 1 shop per 30,000 people in the UK. Our top postcode areas where we've got most densely we've got most dense shop population has an average density of 1 shop for 15,000 people.
So at that extreme, if we had got to that level and had 1,000 to 15,000 across the U. K, that would equate to about 4,000 shops. Prudently, we've assumed that we can achieve 1 shop for every 20,000 people, which would mean over 3,000 shops. So Looking at it from both angles, the practical seeing the shops on the ground and doing it from a density perspective, we believe that 3,000 shops plus is possible. Moving forward and looking at just an example, even in Newcastle, where is our heartland, where we started, Newcastle has got a shop density of 1 shop per 14,000 people.
Just one example in the Few months, we have a shop at Neville Street, which is directly opposite Central Station. We had the opportunity to open in the station. It's literally 100 yards away, straight out the main door. We've opened there and we are trading very successfully in that new shop and the shop across the road It's not been affected at all. Convenience is everything.
The customers in the station are on a different mission to those just outside the station, quite incredible. Also Newcastle in the last year, we've opened a Petro Forecourt and we've got another Petro Forecourt lined up to open in the months ahead. We're continuing to look for new shops even in those most densely populated areas in terms of shops. Turning now to franchise. We have 3 61 shops trading currently and franchise will continue to be a very important element of our growth story.
We plan to open at least 50 shops per year over the next 5 years, which would mean in 5 years' time we would Have around 600 shops in the estate, which would equate to about 20% of the Greggs Estate. And it's a changing market, obviously, with petrol beginning to decline and Vacation coming in, 4 quarters are being converted, but we see this as a positive because customers and Drivers who have to stop and fill up with electricity, dwell for longer and we want food to eat when they do so. So there There are opportunities out there in the market for us to do so. In terms of the quality of the state and improving the The state Richard mentioned at the start of the presentation, we expect to increase the pace of relocations to around 50 per year. Effectively, every lease end, we look at every shop and just check its suitability for that market at that point and we make a decision as to whether we need to retain it and renew the lease or move it to another location if we think that's sensible.
Certainly the relocation decision, normally when we make that Decision is to normally a bigger shop and a better location, hopefully better terms, certainly the market at the moment is offering better terms. But certainly in the future we'll be offering more channels for the customers in that location. That's why you move to the bigger shops so that you can allow that to happen. And within that, certainly we'll be creating some more larger coffee shops within that transition. And lastly, moving on to refits In terms of improving the quality of the state, we expect to increase the pace to 200 to 300 per year, probably averaging 250.
When we do so, we'll be separating the new digital channels for ease of shopping. We do not want the walk in customers to be impeded by the customers who Come into click and click or delivery channel that will be separated in store. There will be an increased kitchen layout so that the efficiency of production is improved and we can service those digital channels more easily. And in store, there'll be an increased and improved level of digital communication for those customers understand what is on offer for them. A couple of examples, I think this photograph is in Richard's Slide 2.
This is Aylesbury, which was refitted in the last couple of weeks. You can see the enhanced digital communication across the top of the counter run. And on the left hand side, the click and collect and the delivery customers will be served at that side, whereas the walk in customers will be served on the right hand side. Hence that both shall not come together as it were. And then the back shot very quickly, we've looked at the whole organization at the back of house and this is a photograph A more efficient assembly area just behind the back fitting so that products can be fed through to the franchise very quickly for those customers who have ordered.
So in summary, we target of 3,000 shops we believe is very achievable. We'll be increasing our pace to 150 per year on average. All location types have the opportunity to grow, but the most significant will be retail parks, forecourts, roadside locations, industrial estates and supermarkets. The quality of the estate will be improved through the increased pace of relocation and refits. And we when we do so, we'll be offering more channels to shop and more efficient layout and improved digital communications.
Thank you very much.
Hello. Good afternoon. My name is Malcolm Copeland, I'm Commercial Director of Gregg's. I've been with Gregg's just coming on for 8 years. In the commercial team, we support our colleagues through the menu development and the category planning.
We also support our colleagues through the commercial planning, which is the forecast and replenishment into our shops and into we are the procurement team as well. We procure the goods not for resale, and we also procure the food and the packaging as well across the business. Before that, my training to get into Greg's was 23 years with Marks and Spencer's, and I joined Marks and Spencer as a graduate in the last century sometime. Today, I want to give you the update on the evening opportunity as we see it. So I will share with you the market the customer insight, some extracts from Greg's performance in some of the trial shops and summary and next steps at the end.
Firstly, the marketing customer insight. As I go through this, I will make reference to NPD Crest. NPD It's a company that tracks food on the go globally, and the CREST data is what they track through the surveys, etcetera. So that's the basis of the information I'll share today. A lot of the information will come from 2019 as obviously 2020 was very skewed.
So first of all, what do we define the market as in terms of food to go? It is food. There is quick service and can be eaten on and off the premise. MPD size this market at just over $9,000,000,000 and dinner is classified as over after 4 p. M.
So that's what's in scope in this market. And as importantly, out of scope is food that is prepared or cooked at home. And as you can see, that's mainly the supermarkets are dominant in this marketplace. The other out of scope is eating in restaurants and pubs, etcetera, table service. So that's what's not in scope.
Again, you can see from the Food To Go market, it's valued at 24,000,000,000 The largest market share, Daypart, is the dinner market share, and that's at 36.7%. As you go around, you can see where the Greggs market share is strongest. So at breakfast, which is 10.9% of overall Daypart, we've actually got a market share there of 9.9%, so very strong market share. In lunch, The 2nd largest daypart at 33%. Again, we have a strong market share of 6.8%.
But in the evening, for that dinner marketplace, currently, we only have 1% market share. So we believe there's an Opportunity to grow both sales and share in that daypart. This slide doesn't look at sales, but it looks at visits. So again, Crest sized this at 1,700,000,000 visits through 2019. The 2 major channels that you can see there are grab and go and delivery.
And these are where obviously Greg's currently operating. The grab and go is walking into the shop. And the delivery, hear more about it later on in terms of how we've expanded that and launched over the last couple of years. Of course, we're in drive through, as Raymond highlighted, and sit in, but the key channels for us will be walk in and delivery. And in terms of the split in terms of retailers within this, The interesting thing, I believe, about this part of the day, which is still valued at over £9,000,000,000 is the long List of independents within this different to breakfast, different to lunch.
So you can see it's fairly well split between brands and independents. And we believe as a trusted brand and consumer sees it as a trusted brand, we've got a real opportunity to grow market share within this. We've also looked, again, with Crest into the key items which sell in the evening after 4 p. M. And again, coming from consumer panels, customer panels, You can see that a number of those items actually Greg's are already serving on the menu, such as the potato comps in terms of we sell the wedges.
We have chicken gojons, chicken popcorn. And also, we're into the hot sandwiches as well, which is very popular for us. Not forgetting, of course, in terms of the pizza slices, We sell a lot of pizza slices from lunchtime onwards. So we're confident that we're not starting from 0 on this, that we actually do have a menu which is capable of stretching into the evening. And if we focus on the evening and delivery Items, which items are on most people's list when asked.
Then same sort of response, but obviously pizza Becomes the number one item on the delivery menu. And again, there, we have a good opportunity. We have already started to sell Pizza boxes, and we're pleased with the sales so far to date. So a good opportunity with the current menu. And this is one of the questions that we have asked in terms of Our customer panel, we've asked the question, has Greg's got a good range of food options for the evening?
And we're sort of developing the new product ranges that we will launch in the next year. Over onethree of those customers that were aware Of the Greggs brand, so yes, they have a good range to serve in the evening. So again, not starting from that 0 base. So move on from the customer insight into some of the performance that we've seen within the trials. We started to test and learn really in quarter 4 of 2019.
We moved that forward again into 2020 when we were able to add the delivery into those trials. And we'll move next year into trialing with dedicated menu for the evening And also some targeted marketing as well. What we've learned from those trials is that menu is important and obviously hot food It's most important going into the evening. We've learned a lot about location, shop types, but the key lesson is that the evening works for us where we have walk in And we have delivery together. And as I say, I guess the other key learning for us, looking into it, was the strength of walk in.
So market is obviously far higher in terms of delivery. But in those trials, we were 80% walk in. That's something we expect as we move into delivery in evening, and we market that with menu, And we'll increase the delivery opportunity through those channels. And again, lessons that we learned From the menu, this is actually looking into our own sales and our own performance, not the market crest detail. But what became very apparent for us is within the menu that we serve, we over index in terms of the hot food, straight in line with the market.
But also some of our products like sweets became very, very popular in the evening, More as a dessert to have with the menu as well. So again, we believe that we've got a good menu to start with, but more opportunity in terms of some of the products that we will develop into next year. And again, key for us is value. And we've talked about the value that we have with our customers at breakfast and at lunch. We're extending this value proposition into the evening as well.
So we believe that the wedges and chicken box at £3 The hot sandwich meal deal at £4.50 and also pizza boxes now starting at under £8 Our key in value against some of our competitors in this arena. So moving the value proposition into the evening is an opportunity for us. And in terms of where we expect to trial and test and learn over the next 12 months, Again, it will be more about hot food. So we will be looking at extending into some of the hot food sharing opportunities. We've talked about the pizza boxes.
We've also moved into savory sharing boxes as well, and we've had great success with the sharing dessert boxes. But next year, we will look to move into more of the single item products where we can actually put sites to them as well. So with a wedge, we might have gravy or we might have healthier salad complements as well with some of those meal centers. We're also seeing there's an opportunity within dessert. So we will trial some of our favorite desserts, a bit hot with sauce as well to see if the consumers pick up and run with that.
And also in the dessert marketplace, some of the things we've learned in terms of hot drinks Translates into sweet treats, and we'll look into some of the cold drinks as well for opportunities in the evening. And so in summary, as Richard highlighted, we believe there's a £180,000,000 sales opportunity by 2026. We believe that 60% of those sales will come through walk in and 40% of the sales will come through delivery. The sales here are a leverage on existing asset and cost base, and delivery itself makes the opportunity viable in 2 thirds of the estate. And our immediate steps for 2022 will be to extend shop opening hours So 8 p.
M. And 5:00. The trial currently is just over 100. We'll test and learn from the extended menu trials. We won't get everything right.
We never do, but we'll listen to the consumer and we'll refine the offer. And again, we'll go into targeted marketing activation in some of those evening centers where we can really focus on the new menu and the new opening times as well. Thank you. I'll now hand over to Roshin.
Thanks, Malcolm. Good afternoon. So I am Rosheen Currie. I am the Retail and People Director at Greggs. I joined Greg's 12 years ago as the People Director and then took on the combined role of Retail and People in 2017.
And before that, I was with Asda for 20 years, starting in their graduate scheme and then working in various roles across the U. K. So always been In the food industry. I'm going to update you today on the exciting plans and progress that we've got for our digital channels. So I will start with the update on delivery, apart from the lovely picture, Roger.
So in terms of how we're doing with delivery, we've made Great progress. We have now got 943 shops live that offer delivery to our customers. We've got further launches planned and we're working through those just now in October and we plan to have another 3 launch dates. And then with those shops that we're considering just now and our new shops coming online, by the end of this year, our aim is to have 1,000 Delivery shops live. And we'll do that in 2 ways.
So we currently have Gregg's shops and Just Eat open a new catchment zone. We will open shops in that catchment. And we're Just Eat currently have a catchment. If we open a Graig shopping, we will open that shop up to delivery. So two ways that we Try and continue to deliver our own delivery.
And what we have found is we found that delivery is currently the fastest growing Food on the go channel. So it now reaches out to families and over 50s much more than ever before. And interestingly, it's not only convenience that's driving that delivery purchase. It's also that affordable regular treats. And what we have seen is that as walk in has opened back up, that hasn't changed.
That delivery channel has stayed strong. But the really great news is that we do know we have got the opportunity to grow that channel in both the day and the evening. Currently, as you'll see from the pie chart, 82% of our delivery business comes through breakfast and through lunch. And yet if you look at the chart in the middle of the slide, one of our competitors currently takes over 45% Of their delivery channel after 5 So you've heard Malcolm talk about that big prize After 5 o'clock in the evening and going for that daypart. However, we need to do even more to continue to grow That breakfast and that lunch day part that we are doing so well in just now.
So how will we do that? Well, we need to reach more customers. So we will continue to reach more customers by rolling out more shops. At the end of 2020, we had 603 shops, which was massively accelerated because of the pandemic. By the end of this year, I've said to you that we aim to have 1,000 shops live offering delivery.
And by the end of 2022, It is our aim to get to 1300 shops. We believe that when we get to 80% of our shop So that's an existing estate and new shops that come online. We will be reaching all postcodes in the U. K. That have a Greggs with the delivery channel.
But as we do that, we need to make sure that we continue to trial and experiment, trial and make sure that in our high volume shops, We continue to do a great job both with our customers that walk in and our customers access these other channels, but also in our smaller footprint shops To make sure that we can provide and service that multichannel approach. So let me just explain to you how we have got the ability To really expand that capacity. The map in front of you is a map of Newcastle. And it just shows you that in Newcastle currently, We have 23 shops. Of those 23 shops, 10 of them currently offer delivery and 13 don't.
As those shops that offer delivery start to reach capacity, the big price for us is we simply open another shop in that catchment. So therefore, we can make sure that we reach those customers and deliver that service that they're looking for because of the spread of shops that we've got across the U. K. But we need to work really hard to make sure that we can maximize and grow that daypart. And it's really important for us that we've got a focus on operational efficiency and operational simplicity.
So as Raymond shared earlier, we're working really hard to create these digital zones. So you come into our shop as Customer or as a Just Eat driver and it's really easy to know where to go to access the product that you have ordered. But it's also really important for us that our colleagues can easily and efficiently assemble that order for you. So again, you can see that behind the scenes, we're working really hard to continue the operational efficiency and simplicity That allows us to deliver the volumes that we do. You've also heard from Richard that our plans are to relocate Some of our shops to larger premises.
Again, that requires us to work really hard as we relocate to larger premises to make sure that we can service all those various Channels that we want to be able to provide to our customers. And as Malcolm said, continuing to develop that menu is really important to us because that grows both the day part menu for us, but also that new evening menu But it's not all about delivery. We also have our digital click and collect Channel that we you can now access through our new app that we launched recently. And why would you want to click and collect? Well, one key piece for us is this piece about guaranteed availability.
If you go on your app and you select that product, that product will be there for you When you turn up. And we know that for some customers, we can disappoint them at times because their favorite product is not there. You will also skip the queue. So you will skip the queue and you will go straight to that digital collection point to collect the product that you have ordered. And more importantly, we want to be able to allow you to personalize that product for yourself.
So to add extra of your favorite ingredient Or take out that ingredient that you just don't like. So for us, we believe that customers will therefore have more time to browse the menu. They will it will be easier to shop for them in terms of their own device. And then we want to provide them with the opportunity to add or remove the items that they want. And what we already know from our customers in terms of their current spend habits, If you're a walk in customer, the Greg's just now, you will spend between £3 to £4 in your visit.
If you go on and you click and collect, That increases to £8 to £9 You place larger orders and we believe you place orders for more than just one person. And if you go on to the delivery channel, you spend about £9 to £10 engaging with us in that way. So it demonstrates Just how important these channels are to us. But we also want to offer our customers a made to order service, Allowing them to personalize the product just the way they want it. And we believe there are a number of business benefits So enabling this to happen.
So customers buy more as they browse at their leisure on their own device. And therefore, we know that increases the average transaction value. We believe it doesn't impact in our walk in queue because there is a separate Collection point. So previously, I might have been the customer that stood in that walk in queue. Well, I'm no longer there.
I go straight to the collection point To pick up my order. Therefore, the walk in queue moves faster where we've got click and collect and the digital zones. And you pay on your own device as you're traveling to us. And because we know the product that you wanted to order and we're making it for you, there is less waste. But it also allows us to offer an increased range of choice using the current ingredients that we've got in shop.
So again, back to simplicity, which is really important for us, we don't increase the complexity within our shops. And the great news is we have just implemented a new digital production system. And that was to make sure that we could deliver to Natasha's Law, which came into place last Friday, Which requires us to put label on any product that's pre packed for direct sale. But what it does do for us, it really It's our journey to meet to order. So in front of you, you will see the new UG production system.
So it's really simple for our shop teams. We show them the utensils that they will need to make to use to make this product. In this case, it's a sandwich. We show them the carrier that the customer has ordered. We then show them a list of the ingredients that they need to add to make this product alongside the quantities.
So the shop team just need to follow the step by step process to be able to personalize your sandwich just the way you want it. And then they simply press confirm and then that order then becomes part of the assembled order for that digital customer. And we know that we can make personalized work personalization work with high volumes. Why can we do that? Well, number 1, customers browse in their own time using their own device while they're traveling to our shops.
Number 2, we have time to start to prepare that order because we know when they're going to turn up to collect it. They pay in their own device. While they are paying in their own device and we no longer have to do that part of the transaction, we can spend that time personalizing that sandwich for them. And our plan is to offer this service through our digital channels and selected shops. And it's really exciting in terms of What that will look like for a product range.
So for example, Mark talked about pizzas. Well, actually, I like hot pepperoni pizza. So I simply choose the pepperoni pizza, I add jalapeno peppers to it and the pizza that I will turn up to collect is the one that I wanted. We're just about to start with pizzas and then our plan is to roll on to baguettes, then on to salads and then on to hot and cold mailboxes. And we already know that our customers want this service.
We've been offering through our walk in channels a customized breakfast service for many years. 35% of our current customers customize that breakfast sandwich to get it just the way they want to. So therefore, we know there is demand out there. So in summary, around why do we think these digital channels are so exciting? The pandemic has allowed us to accelerate Those digital opportunities.
We've rolled out APACE, as I've said. So by the end of this year, we aim to have 1,000 delivery shops live, And we already have click and collect in all of our Greggsmanage shops. We do need to continue to focus This piece around operational excellence, operational efficiency, operational simplicity to make sure that we provide both the digital area for our customers, But also make it really easy for the colleagues working in our shops. And then as Malcolm has said, we believe that delivery is Key to unlocking the evening day part. And to the question earlier, we do believe that delivery is a key driver of our like for like performance.
Okay. Good afternoon. I'm Hannah Squirell. I'm the Marketing Director or Customer Marketing Director at Greggs, and I've been at Greggs for 4 years prior to that, I've spent 25 years doing all sorts of things. We're always in marketing, customer and brand and Heavy focus on digital as well.
So some of the brands I've enjoyed working on, things like Avon Cosmetics, Madison Edwardian Hotels, lots of chocolate brands, Holidays, those lovely types of things. And then on the digital side, I spent 8 years at Capital One, who were very advanced at their time. Even 20 years ago, we're Using 100 test sales a week to understand digital performance online. BGL Group, which I'm sure many of you will be familiar with, so rolled there to build a direct Brand in the face of aggregation coming in. It was a premium brand.
Aggregators are all about value. Very interesting trying to set up a digital direct brand in terms of that. And then more recently, before Greg's, I was the Marketing Director at Tesco Bank. And career learning so far is that in marketing, we get to work on all sorts of different products and it's such a great career and always work on products that you enjoy. So I enjoy donuts and I enjoy steak bakes.
I'm in a perfect job as it goes. So I'm going to talk to you today about broadening our customer appeal and instilling more loyalty with our customers in terms of supporting the long term growth trajectory That we've talked about today. But firstly, a quick look at the market. So few to go. This is the NPD CREST data that Malcolm mentioned earlier, MPD are the global leaders in tracking out of home consumption.
Their data is used across the world. They show us that the total out of home market is worth £57,000,000,000 with Food To Go, the largest segment within that 24 £1,000,000,000 and this is up to 2019, again, to avoid that pandemic effect skewing the numbers. And on the left that you can see in comparison to out of home, Food to go is also growing more quickly than the core market as well. So we're in a very large and growing market. And we also have significant headroom for growth as well.
So NPD Crest also provide data in terms of market penetration, Frequency and average transaction value as well. So in terms of the market, 8 out of 10 adults aged over 18 are shopping Food To Go. With Greggs, that's 38% and the quick service restaurant average is 26%. Looking at best in class in quick service restaurants, it's 40%. In terms of customer frequency, the average 18 plus adult shops in Food To Go 94 times a year, so on average twice a week.
We captured 13 of those visits. The average is 13, so we're in line there. But the best in class is 22, so there's a lot of headroom for us to go after there. And in terms of average spend, food to go market average spend per transaction is around £4 With us, it's around £3 The quick service restaurant average was between £56, and bestest class is around £6. So at a summary level, Greg's has 6.5% of Food to Go Visits and average frequency of visits, but a lower than average ATV in the market.
I thought it'd be useful today to remind of our brand strategy. I don't think I've done this very recently. So for the last 3 years, our brand strategy has been around making Greggs mean more To more people. And that's underpinned by these three pillars of quality, value and doing the right thing. Convenience is always king, but we know that these three things here are very much key drivers of choice amongst free to go consumers.
And that's why 3 years ago, We identified them to focus on. And every piece of activity we have done since then has a drumbeat of these pillars to really get across what the brand stands for. The brand strategy is held together by one common thought and that's always there for you and that's not in a cheesy way. That's in a way that the fact that this brand, Greg's brand is for everyone. We have shops everywhere and food that can be enjoyed Anywhere and anytime.
And that's the crux of the thinking around the brand strategy that will underpin and hold together everything that you'll see today. Just to get us on the same page around some of the terminology we'll use today, and this is about how we measure the effectiveness of our brand Marketing. So we use YouGov. They are an international research and analytics group and they're the most quoted market research source in the U. K.
The measures we're going to talk about today are the ones that you can see here. So they have 11,000,000 people on their panel and these are the questions that they ask. So advertising awareness Refers to have you seen any advertising for X brand in the past 2 weeks? Consideration, When you are next in the market, which of these brands would you consider? And purchase intent of the brands considered, Which you're most likely to purchase.
And our overall brand awareness, which we'll only touch on lightly, is very, very high. I think you have to be living in a cave not to have heard of Greg's. So that is on here as well, but I just wanted to say that we're going to focus on those three metrics for now. So this moving in shows some of the marketing and brand activations that we've been undertaking since 2018. And they're aimed at showing the impact that the activations that we do have on those three really important metrics in terms of moving customers from being aware of us And to considering us to moving into purchase intent, they're all important.
I plan to purchase from Greg's Next when I'm in the market for food on the go. In terms of some of the numbers, the highest level, our consideration overall has risen by 44% And our purchase intent has risen by 62%. Most of the activations that we do are to support the commercial plans that you've heard about today already and some more later. But we also do quite targeted activations as well when there's pockets of consumers who are very hard to reach. And The 18 to 34 year olds are ever elusive.
But just some of the campaigns that we've done. So vegan sausage roll launch, did anybody hear about that? Okay. Advertising awareness went up 112%, and that's because it went viral. It literally went around the world.
And the good thing about that campaign was that The intention to purchase of those people that saw that advertising went up 38%, but also as well we attracted a much newer audience and a much younger audience at the same time. Similarly, the Vegan Steak Bake, again, very significant numbers increasing our advertising awareness when we did the drop, which was a take on the Nike Way that they would advertise and market new products and purchase intent up significantly as well. In terms of targeting those elusive groups, Lewis Capaldi, He's been a wonderful career lesson for me. My team said, let's do some activity with Lewis Capaldi, getting to sing in our Middlesbrough shop. And I went, who?
I had never heard of him, but fair play to the team. He sang in our shop when our awareness between 1834 year olds The advertising we did by 36% and the purchase intent of that audience went up 22%. And then finally, PlayStation 5. We would never have expected to get a call from the global team at Sony about their PlayStation launch, but they called us and said, hey, hi, Why don't we do a collab? Yes, please.
So we undertook that very, very quickly with them. And we became the most considered brand Amongst gamers during the period of that campaign and for a short period afterwards as well. So we rose from 6th in the market for consideration in the audience to number 1. And that might be all in well and good, but we were most pleased because we got called the coolest thing of the week by GQ Magazine. So And Doctor.
Dre was number 2, so he's pretty cool. So in terms of the opportunity, what you're seeing is some quite peaks of activity, but the challenge is they drop off. You have this wonderful burst of activity, then it kind of drops off a bit. So our aim from a marketing strategy perspective is not to change the strategy, But to do more activity to flatten out some of these peaks into a long term, steady, successful growth trajectory as a brand. And now we have so much more to talk about as well.
So we can start layering on that content that should enable us to consistently grow the brand. And while still having a moment, avoid some of the drops that you see with some of the peaks of activity. So how are we doing in terms of moving brand perceptions from all of this? So pretty well looking at the direction of those graphs on there. We're now seen as a leading food on the Go brand.
So this research is from YouGov, and they continually monitor public perceptions of brands around the world. The brand index is the overall score that a brand is given from the cumulative figures of all of those to the right So on the right of the dotted line, things like impression, quality, value, satisfaction and recommendation I've seen as the most important things to food to go consumers in terms of who they're going to purchase from and the perceptions they have with those brands. And what we see is that the impression of the brand has risen exponentially. In fact, across all of those measures, it hasn't taken us long to double, if not treble, The positive perceptions that customers are seeing across each one of those. And we've also successfully negated the fact that the view that good value equals poor quality, Both of those measures rising significantly and concurrently.
On the far left then is the brand index. That's Overall score of how effective you are as a brand in terms of the public's perceptions and Greg's ranked number 1 in the Food To Go, coffee shop and delivery sector now. So that's Number 1 across 38 different brands, and we've held that position now since mid-twenty 18. And the cherry on the top Was that in 2019, we won brand of the year. So that's not just in that category of 38, that's across every brand.
So we fought off really stiff competition from Netflix, IKEA, so there's some champagne flowing that night for sure. So how does this translate in terms of moving customers down that engagement funnel so they're more likely to purchase with Greg? So This is the awareness that I talked about very, very high and therefore is relatively fat as we move from 2017 to 2021. With that consideration, how likely we are to be in that pool of brands that you might shop with, that's up 5 points. And purchase intent is also about 3 So who you would buy from next?
So we've been successful in translating the marketing activity that you've seen to encourage customers through that Purchase funnel and hopefully they'll consider us more frequently and significantly more numbers for their next visit when they desire food on the go. There's still lots of headroom for us and lots of opportunity. Taking a look at the best in class, 15.3% in terms of their purchase intention. So our aim is absolutely to get to that number and hopefully to move past it as well. And we see the trajectory of our progress to get there It's to continue to break down any barriers that food to go consumers may have about shopping at Greggs and also to move on to the next stage of our activity that We've been hearing about, which we summarize the app, our new channels and our customer relationship marketing, our CRM.
So barriers to purchase. In terms of barriers to purchase, so this is a U and A usage and attitude study of a nationally representative sample for us customers in 2019, what one thing would make you shop more often at On the left, we've scored ourselves greens. We feel that we've made some very, very good progress and nearly broken down those barriers fully, especially in areas such as vegan, A wider range in terms of our shop locations. On the right are the Ambitix. We're on the journey to overcome these But we still have quite a way to go yet.
And that's the kind of things that we need to talk more to consumers about. So they're aware that we offer these products And they're going to come to us for those visits. So in terms of breaking down the barriers that we have, we've made exceptional progress, but we still have a way to go too. And just to bring to life, in terms of the barriers that people may have that I've just spoken to you about, everything that we're talking about today means that customers have Far more choices, far more options and far more reasons to come to Greg's for their next Food on the Go visit, whether it's hot or cold, sweet or savory, Breakfast, lunch, evening, etcetera. And they're all now accessible by the new channels that Machine just talked about.
And they're all going to be rewarded Buy the Greg's enhanced loyalty program, whereas previously, you'd just be rewarded for the coffee in the top right. We now reward people for every single purchase with us. So all of these new offerings mean that hopefully customers will want to join our app in their droves and to use it more regularly. So in terms of the content that we can give us for reasons for people to visit us, this is the journey that we've been on in terms of driving value from customers who are members Of Greg's Rewards. On the left, our EPOS data tells us that the average transaction value in our shops is around £3 When we launched the coffee loyalty scheme, the second image on there, the average transaction value came in around 30% higher Then we saw on the EPOS data, but they're different data sets.
So we can't be sure that it was the coffee loyalty scheme that actually led to that, but that was the facts that we were seeing separately. When we extended our loyalty scheme to all products, we went about that in a very careful way. So we had a test who stayed on the loyalty program and a test sell of 10,000 customers that had the new one. And what we found was that the frequency of purchase increased by 40%. And the average transaction value was relatively the same.
So we saw a lot more significant value and frequency coming from those customers. So the aim now with the new app is to attract even more customers to come to the app and use the new channels, which Roshan has just shown you How much ATV incrementally that we can get from the likes of Click and Collect and maybe in the future delivery customers ordering via the app. The other great thing about the app from a customer perspective is that we can see what they're doing. We can understand our customers more and go about serving them even better because we can make sure that Every communication that we have with the customer is based on what we're actually seeing them doing and what's of interest to them. And we set up 3 guidelines and 3 values really for our communication strategies 4 years ago, which is everything has to be timely, relevant and 4 years ago, which is everything has to be timely, relevant and valuable.
And if it's not, it shouldn't be going out the door. But when you don't really know who the customers are, who are walking in and Going, it's quite difficult. This gives the absolute opportunity to really understand our customers and target them with highly relevant and highly valuable communications. So therefore, we think it's highly realistic to have the ambition to make our average transaction value reach the industry average I showed you at the start of this presentation of just over £4 In terms of how we're planning to maximize the customer value, we've got Three key threats that we're going to talk about today. There are many, but I just thought we'd focus on 3 for the purpose of today.
Firstly, driving frequency of purchase and ATV from our existing Customers secondly, attracting walk in customers to become up users and thirdly, to extend our strategic business to business partnerships To grow our customer base even further. So firstly, looking at driving frequency. The opportunity to drive frequency from our existing Customers is very, very significant. 25% of our app customers shop very frequently with us 54 times a year on average, so just over once a week. The other 75%, however, visit us on average once every 3 months and not very frequently at all.
So we see a huge opportunity To engage and attract these customers to visit more often because now we have so many more reasons for them to purchase with us, plus the new capability to talk to them directly About what we think is going to be the most relevant and valuable to them. Just bringing customer relationship management to life a little bit, just some examples. So When we do e mail marketing, so I know CRM is all sorts of different channels, but just thinking about e mails for today, we have a 3 times the open rate of the industry for the e mails that we've sent today. And we're quite early on this journey. So it could be that people go, Oh, I've not heard from Gregs before, and that might be it.
But actually, we think that we will consistently hold A much higher open rate and engagement rate with our customers because that's what we see in all of our other channels, a very, very engaged audience who love the brand. Some of the examples here that we've marked up for today, we can start to promote click and click directly to these customers because we know that, that drives a higher ATV. Focusing on the product benefit for them, no cue for you. So again, in a highly targeted way to serve messaging around the kind of behaviors We hope that they will display and to make them aware of the new products and services that we have. We can promote our delivery partner, Just Eat, Some of the healthy options that we have or our evening trade, for example, again, a new daypart opportunity to drive that incremental visit.
And then hot food that Malcolm talked about. We know we have good co purchase with hot food and the ATV. But again, it's another reason to visit that customers might not previously I've had. And to Rich's point earlier, he always keeps me in check on my marketing spend. These are highly, highly measurable channels.
You can see who's scoping it, Who's clicked on it? Who's gone on to purchase? So I'm sure he'll be the guardian to make sure that if it's not working, we're not spending the money. And I suppose I should do that as well, if I'm honest. So secondly, we aim to attract as many customers as possible who are walking at the moment To become app members.
And a couple of reasons for this is that, firstly, attracting new people to join the app. But secondly, we think it will The campaign that we're going out with, which I'll give you a sneak preview of, has anybody genuine question, has anybody seen the Greg's Up campaign as you're coming in this morning? It's not very good, is it? Well, it went live today, so we're very pleased. But I'll have to go and hunt down the executions to see where they are.
So the aim here is attracting new customers on the app, but we also It will be a valuable reminder to customers who already have our app, who've what we call become dormant with it, they've been using it for a significant amount of time because it will remind them about it, but also we'll now be serving messaging around how much better it is, how many more products and services there are and how many channels That we can serve them by as well. So the campaign rationale is about Gregs on Tap, everything Gregs at your fingertips, Rewards, freebies, click and collect on your way to work, find your nearest shop wherever you are. The app is basically what we're saying, the cherry on top To get your Gregs whenever you want and wherever you are. So hopefully, you'll be seeing some of these executions As you wander around. And then finally, business to business partnerships.
So we set up our business to business Business, 3 years ago. So we've had a lot of success with this. And this has come about from the strength of the brand over the last few years where we've had A number of really high profile U. K. Brands wanting to partner with us to get Greg's products into the hands of their customers and their employees.
So us, it's a brilliant opportunity to attract new and incremental footfall from other brands. But also, hopefully, when those customers come to our shops To collect, for example, this one here, O2 Free Breakfast, if you're a member of O2 Priority, they can see for themselves the journey that Greg's has been on over the years And hopefully start shopping with them with us regularly and become loyal customers, not just from a walk in perspective, but we also hope that they'll join the app as well. And again then, we can talk directly to them in that targeted valuable way to increase frequency of visit and average transaction value. The other good thing about O2 is similar to Just Eat is that we benefit from a joined up media investment strategy. So both brands coming together To promote products and services to their customers and building awareness that these are the right products for our customers to come and visit us, but also highly valuable to O2's customers As well.
Next month, you'll see that we are doing an exclusive O2 priority, which is our pizza in the evening opportunity. So again, 2 key work from our 5 year strategy that we're getting a lot of awareness from O2 because they see it as such a valuable proposition for their customers And the awareness that we will get for those new opportunities in terms of evening and customized pizzas really works well for the 2 brands together. And the other great thing about B2B that we're seeing so far from the analysis that we've done is it's driving a high level of incremental customers. So people that are new to the brand Or might not have shopped for a very, very long time with us. So overall, it's been a really exciting journey on B2B and we plan to grow that significantly To keep attracting new and incremental customers, but also to partner with some fantastic brands that maybe previously we could only have jumped off.
So all of this is aimed at driving ATV and frequency because we have so many more And we can serve our customers even better at any time of the day, anywhere and wherever they are. In terms of the summary, we are in a growing market with significant headroom for growth. We've successfully shifted customer perceptions of the brand and are now a leading food to go retailer. The brand is well loved. The marketing strategy is working.
We now have more to talk to Customers about than we ever have and more ways that we can serve them even better. The new capability and digital products that we I mean that we can engage with customers in ways that we have never been able to before. And we have a clear strategy to recruit, Retain and drive incremental value from each of those customers while serving them even better.
Okay. Welcome back, everybody. So you've heard from our operating Board really about all the different channels of growth that we'll be chasing over the next 5 years as part of these ambitious targets. But of course, that needs supplying and it needs support both from our own internal supply chain and in terms of the technology that's increasingly important in delivering all these plans. So first up, I'd just like to introduce Gavin, who's going to talk to you about what it will take to supply all those donuts, sausage rolls and everything else.
Right. Good afternoon, everybody. I'm Gavin Kirk. And for the last 10 years, I've been Supply Chain Director for Greggs, so responsible for Everything we manufacture, so sausage rolls, donuts, etcetera, and then all the logistics operations that we operate to get products out to our shops each day. So I'm want to talk to you about, from a supply chain perspective, the infrastructure that we'll need to support a bigger business.
And I'm going to cover off 2 areas. First one is what I call laying the foundation for growth. So just a little bit of a look back and take you on a little bit of the journey that we've been on in this great supply chain, which We'll help you understand where we are now and what that means for the future. And then secondly, what's required to supply a bigger business, both from a capacity requirements perspective, but then also from a future network, what the network could look like. I think it's fair to say that Greg's supply chain has been on a continuous journey of transformation since 2014.
There have been 2 key elements of that journey in that time up to 2020. The first one was we made the call to close our in store bakery business. So we still had shops where there was a baker working in the back of a shop, making products through the night and moving those products into the front of the shop ready for sale the next morning. We made the decision, that was very different model clearly from the rest of our states. So we made the decision to close our in store bakeries.
We moved the production into our regional bakery network. And then we also we then delivered back into those shops twice a day. So we closed the in store bakeries. And then in 2016, we announced A significant supply chain transformation program, which focused in on those regional sites and drove efficiencies and change within those. So this transformation program has transformed Greg's supply chain onto what I call a centralized Food2Go model.
On the left hand side here, the old model that we were operating until 2016 is what I would describe as a traditional decentralized bakery model. So we had bakeries around the country. And each of those bakeries would be making donuts and bread rolls and bread, so things on behalf of a local group of shops. So you can imagine lots of duplication then around the country with lots of sites doing something similar, fairly manual and equipment, quite a lot of it was on dated equipment. So that's the old model that we had.
We've moved across to a new model, which is very much to support a food to go business. So if you imagine 10 sites making doughnuts, we've got one site now making the majority of our range of doughnuts We've got 2 sites making bread rolls instead of 10 sites making bread rolls. So we've really focused on centralization and invested in the production capability and we've also then released space for logistics, which has enabled us to then ship products out to more shops. It was a £100,000,000 program. We've invested that over around about 5 years And the benefits of that were many.
We have improved the quality of our product. We were talking about quality of product before. We've got fewer locations making each of the products. We are now fully invested. We've got state of the art equipment and we've got teams that are making donuts all day.
We've released space from production into logistics, which has enabled us to get to more shops, which has then given us some further benefits in our radial networks. And the sum total of all of that is we've driven our costs down as well. So by centralizing production, Servicing more shops, clearly we've improved our cost structures. So a significant change and all sort of A replumbing of the machine effectively behind the scenes whilst the business kept operating. And that journey has continued.
So that was out to 2020. In 2020, we were also on that foundation able to move to a single daily delivery to each shop. Prior to that, we were delivering to each shop twice a day. So a single daily delivery, that's taken 4,700,000 kilometers off the road each year. It's taken 3,200 tonnes of CO2 out of our carbon footprint.
During last year, we took the opportunity to trial double decker trailers. So instead of getting 24 pallets on a trailer in our primary network, We can move to 40 pallets on a trailer. It was a successful trial and over the next couple of years, we're going to be rolling that out through the rest of our primary logistics network. Again, that will deliver benefits in terms of less trucks required, about a third less fuel and another 1200 tons of CO2 less in our footprint. And then the other change just worth mentioning, during 2020, so in the height of COVID, we were building a brand new operation In the Northeast, so a big automated freezer, so 17,000 pallet spaces.
You put the pallet in at one end, it's A dark warehouse, a dark freezer, automated, put away, no people involved and then the product comes out in the sequence that you want at the far end. So the supply chain model has clearly been reset and hopefully you get a feel for that from the video. And using one of the slides that Richard showed Earlier on, yes, we've invested capital in our supply chain and we've clearly reduced the overall cost to supply within the model that we now operate. What this does is gives us a great foundation and then a template for growing into the future. And actually there's more benefits still Come from some of those activities, which I talked about in the previous slide.
So moving on then to what's required to supply a bigger business. Clearly doubling our sales over the next 5 years will require investment in both manufacturing and logistics capacity. So we'll need new lines and we'll also need new sites to enable us to support the higher volumes. From a manufacturing perspective, we're in the process of building a new pizza line. And as we look at the volumes, likely volumes into the future, we'll need more savory capacity, we'll need more capacity on Yum Yums, on Donuts and on Cakes.
From a primary logistics perspective, so this is the logistics network behind the scenes that feeds the regional distribution centers, which Take product out to the shops. We'll need more capacity in our primary network. So to store products to enable us to pick and consolidate loads so we can efficiently send them
out to the radial distribution centers. And we'll also need some more
frozen capacity as well. So a And we'll also need some more frozen capacity as well. So another freezer of this, the light you've just seen on the video. And higher volumes going out to each shop and additional shops will mean we'll need more radial logistics capacity. I guess the thing that worth pointing out at this point is everything which I've just talked about on this slide, these are all steps that we spent the last 5 years making within We built these lines.
We spent the last 5 years moving into the world of automation and robotics. So we built these Production capabilities, we just built the freezer that you've seen. We've built radial logistics capacity and we built as part of that, we've built a couple of radial logistics sites as well. So there's nothing new in here, but clearly, we've got some more investment that we need to make to support the bigger business. And work is underway to confirm the optimal locations for this future capacity.
The map on the left here, if you look at the grid, we've got dedicated production sites shown on here in yellow. We've got dedicated logistics sites shown on here in green and we've got combined sites, which do production on behalf of the network and logistics, radio logistics out to a group of shops. So there are 13 sites in total within the current network. What you could also see from here is The larger percentage of our manufacturing capability is sort of if you put a line across the middle of the map is more northern and that's purely by dent of history. So if we've got an opportunity to invest in more capacity from a production perspective, we're going to want to balance that and put it more Southern The Northern makes sense.
So we're doing modeling work at the moment. What we are Thinking about and assuming we're going to be doing is building some sort of southern campus where we put the majority of the new production capacity. And that capacity would then feed into a southern freezer of the like the one you've just seen. So a southern campus somewhere within that yellow block. We're also likely to be investing in our primary logistics network in a similar sort of geographical location.
What we're also then modeling is our radial distribution requirements into the future. So we've got a network of radial sites around the country that deliver to every shop every day. We'll be supplementing that network with a number of additional points on the map, whether that's 2 or 3 additional radial sites to support the doubling of the business. We're modeling that to understand the best sort of geographical fit. So in summary, from a supply chain perspective, Greg's Supply Chain has been on a continuous improvement sorry, continuous journey of transformation.
It's evolved closing some sites. It also involved the creation of centers of excellence in manufacturing and logistics. And the transformation to the most part has made use of existing assets and sites And delivered a step change in supply chain cost structures. It's also delivered a foundation and template for growth. So all of the things we've been working on for the last 3, 4, 5 years are the elements that we will need in the building blocks of the future.
Doubling our business over the next 5 years will require investments in further manufacturing and logistics capacity and we're now modeling to understand exactly what the right places the optimal positions are for those pieces that we've just talked about, including the possible development of the Southern Campus, how much we can put within the existing network and where we put the radial distribution capacity, etcetera. So thank you for listening to that. We'll take any questions. But first, I'm just going to pass you over to Tony Taylor, is going to talk about the IT requirements.
Thank you, Gavin. So You'd be pleased to know this is the penultimate presentation before Q and A, everybody. Just to introduce myself, I'm Tony Taylor. I'm the IT and Business Change Director here in Greggs. I've been here for 6 years.
I joined Greg's from Asda Walmart where I've spent the previous 18 years in various roles. So I'm just going to share with you a few slides following a very similar theme to Gavin in terms of What we've been doing and sort of a lot of reassurance in many ways, but then on to what we'll be building out over the next 5 years. So Very much our digital transformation began 5 years ago. We put in place SAP as an ERP solution, which went across the whole business and we've largely completed that, the last element of that being the final distribution center, which will go in February next year. But across all of our functions of the business.
We've put the core areas, we're now running on SAP. We've migrated all of our business intelligence solutions across from an on premise model to a cloud solution, which allows us to have data and information that's scalable going forward as we grow the business. We've relaunched and brought internally, so we've taken responsibility for our app and our website that Hannah talked about earlier. So We're able to again scale that and adapt it as the business moves forward. And we've also increased and spent time on The capacity and the resilience of our networks and our capability and connectivity between our shops and our supply sites and the central teams as the demand and need for connectivity and always on increases, I'm sure you're aware.
But we've done that also by growing our internal teams as part of this Consumer digital program, we've invested in people, we've invested in the training of our people over the last 5 years. So our priorities Going forward for the next 5 years fall under 4 key themes. The first one is around engaging customers. The second one is enabling efficient operations as a value operator, we need to maintain our efficiency and drive continue to drive efficiency. The third one in the world that is evolved and certainly move forward rapidly is around building a modern workplace and the way that we all work together.
And then finally, it's about growing our digital capabilities as a business. So that first one, Hannes obviously talked to you and Rasheen as well around the digital channels and how they're going to grow. We've launched the app and the website. I guess We're following fast with what many other people do as some of the questions came through before. But going forward, we've laid Solid foundations in using the new CRM tool, Amarsys, that we have.
We know that we'll be able to offer things like personalization and upsell capabilities using the AI technology that's part of our master solution. So it makes it simpler and easier to prompt and prod customers about things driven by behaviors. Customer care is very important to us. So having a live chat and bots and using those customer care capabilities that are in many other apps and website solutions out there will enable us to maintain the high level and standards of customer care that our customers expect. Our gifting journey, we're in the process of enhancing at the moment as well to improve and make that simple for customers to gift and generate more income for us.
But we're also looking to put in things in place things like gamification going forward, because the brand that we are, we want to be phone and interesting and engaging with customers. And then finally, we're looking at technologies like voice enablement, because we know that moving forwards, people are moving away from typing things in and they want to just talk to their phones, place orders over the phone, engage with people over the phone and just use voice. So we know that's a key thing we'll need to start to consider going forward. As I said before, enabling efficient operations is critical as a business. As a value driven business, we need to make We maintain the efficiencies that have been talked about today.
From a retail perspective, it would be it's very easy to put something into the app that offers personalization, but as Roshan alluded to, the shop teams need to be able to translate that efficiently and effectively without disrupting the flow of the shop or of the walk in customer. So we've got to develop tools and mechanisms with the shops to make that easy for them to handle it and serve customers efficiently. We'll have further channel integration as was talked about before with some of the questions. Our partnership with Just Eat will grow, but also enhancing the click and collect operation and how the shop teams deal with those orders when they come through in the most efficient and effective way, but also that we can harvest the data that we get from To make good decisions. Task management, Raymond talked about and Roshan talked around about the back and the front of the shop and the polarization of tasks and activities there.
Again, we need to provide technology solutions that make it easy for the shop teams to be able to cater for and cope with the growth with these new channels so that however you Engage with Greg's, you get a good customer experience. And then shift flexibility, obviously, with colleagues out there, It's the challenges of getting colleagues to from an employee ability perspective, we need to be able to offer solutions that give the employees some flexibility around when work and how they work and be able to swap shifts, etcetera, like many of our competitors offer. In supply chain, Gavin's obviously just talked around some new sites. So we'll be looking to well, putting it simply, I'll have to fulfill the needs of those sites as they come on board. But also we continue to see further benefits in terms of logistics scanning and further automation in the existing sites as well as the new sites.
So there's further efficiency gains we expect to make, but also that we'll be able to use some of the mobile workplace technology of mobile phones and tablets to further improve the efficiencies of drivers, pickers and other people and operators across the supply chain to again further drive that cost and efficiency in the business, but also to try and keep those employees engaged as well with us. Greg's House and the teams and many of the teams here I have a laundry list of things that I'll be working on over the next 5 years. But the probably the 2 key ones to highlight is, we'll be further upgrading that SAP solution to bring latest benefits of the latest versions of SAP, but also our partnership with Microsoft allows us to expand further a lot of the PowerUp technology to drive efficiencies across many of the teams and make their job in working effectively together as teams, especially in the more collaborative world that we live in today. The world's changed a lot in the last 18 months and this concept of the modern workplace is changing very rapidly. Business collaboration tools like Teams that we've embraced in the last 12 months have come at us a lot faster.
We've certainly only used a very small proportion of what we're able to use. So the next 5 years will be around exploiting that. A lot more people would be a lot more distributed and where they work and how they connect and how they contact each other. And we need to continue to use those to drive further efficiencies, but also our understanding of how they are used. Our networks will need investments to continue to make the shops always on, the supply sites always on and always connected, and we need to maintain them being safe and secure.
Risheen talked to you earlier about the York G production system. That's the slide at the bottom there. That's recently been launched for Natasha's Law. But what you can see from that is the sort of engaging and efficient solutions we need to give our shops. That's across all of the activities that we do.
So we need to think carefully going forward. My teams are putting a lot more time into the design and look and feel. So they're consistently applied. They're intuitive. They're easy to use.
In many ways, just like your iPhones and Android phones are today. We're deploying a lot of that technology so that the yellow button is always doing the same task and activity, no matter what you're doing and it's positioned in the same part of the screen, which many of our solutions today aren't. So simplifying the journey for the colleague in the shop to make that easier, likewise for the colleagues in the supply sites as well. So we need those solutions to be engaging and efficient. We shouldn't lose sight as well of the fact that our communications in change management is critical.
Every time we're doing something here in shops, it's affecting 20 of our 20,000 of the 25,000 people or it's 3000 or 4000 people in Gavin's supply chain. So how we communicate the change, how we take them through the change management there and how we engage them and get them on board with that is vitally important to take them on the journey with us. And then the final point, I mentioned it earlier about the network, but we have to do all of this. Our data is growing. Our number of employees is growing.
We have to do it in a safe and do away and protect our employees, but also that data. So how we design it, how we architect is vitally important to make sure it's safe and secure. Overall, we're building an increasingly digital business though and we need to grow our digital capabilities. We'll continue to make investments in people. That's both in my teams, but across all of the teams, because increasingly we work more collaboratively than we've ever done.
We have product teams now that are developing apps and websites that work hand in hand rather than the customer team and the IT team. We're all one team and we'll continue to invest in the training of those people as well to improve the skill sets of how we work as an organization together. Data and analytics will have more data. We'll be able to make far better decisions. We'll have far better tools to do that.
And we can make better decisions as a consequence of that across whether it's the customer landscape, the retail landscape or supply chain. Partnerships are going to be vitally important to us as well. So I've mentioned SAP and Microsoft, but we assume there will be further partnerships So with other partners out there that we'll need to exploit because we will never have the domain knowledge or the money to throw out some of the technology capabilities. So we'll rely on the partners and that's where also the strength of the brand plays in as well, because it's surprising how many people want to be associated with Greggs and we need to leverage that from a technology partnership Digital Literacy is the final point on here. And it shouldn't be misunderstood with the breadth of people we have within an organization, how again we have to take people with us on the journey by understanding The benefits that technology will bring and taking all of our colleagues on that Germany journey with us, whether they're in the head office or whether they're in the shops, on the front line and getting them to understand what technology is doing for them and how they can best enable it.
So To summarize our priorities over the next 5 years, very much focused around the customer. The customer is going to be king here about how we digitally engage with them and continue to grow that journey, making sure we continue to be efficient in what we do across all the elements of our business, building that modern workplace and appreciating how the working world is changing and how everyone's a lot more distributed than they were previously, but also growing those digital capabilities. With that, my presentation concludes.
Good. Well, thank you for that. I think we're going to finish on time, which is excellent. So the first thing to say is thank you to the team. I think mission accomplished, which is that right until the end there, I didn't have a thing to say, fantastic.
And that was part of what we wanted to achieve today, to introduce you to the team. Who I can see hopefully you can see are the people who've delivered the success that Greg has enjoyed so far. They work brilliantly together as a team, which is critical, There's nothing of any real significance happens in retail without cross functional collaboration, which is close knit and this team certainly demonstrates that. So that's the first thing. The second thing was obviously to convince you all that we've not reached peak Greg's yet, even though we've had a fantastic run over the last 8 years in transforming the business from traditional bakery to food on the go.
We've only done that in one channel, and we're only trading in half the market's day, because they're not trading in the evening. So we think the strategic opportunity is hard to argue with and we've set ourselves an ambitious target, admittedly, an ambitious target to gain the sorts of market share that we enjoy in the evening in those in the daytime rather, in those other channels and in those other times of day. So we're very excited about the opportunity. We think we we genuinely think that that's a target we should go after. There will be bumps along the road.
I mean, right now, it's pretty bumpy. But this team has shown that it can cope with COVID, if it can cope with COVID, it can cope with anything. And I'm very confident in our ability to deliver progress along this path towards that target, whether it will be linear, I don't That's the thing obviously that we've yet to show as we get after these opportunities that are clearly there to be obtained. So that all having been said, I'd like to wish you all a safe journey home, those of you who are with us physically, Those of you with us virtually, on to your next Teams meeting or walking the dog, whichever comes first. And thank you very much.