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Earnings Call: Q3 2020

Oct 29, 2020

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Good morning, everybody. Thank you for making the time to join us to listen to our Q3 results call. I'm on slide one of the deck. Joining me as usual is Tom Greenwood, our Chief Operating Officer. Also Manjit Dhillon, who's our interim Chief Finance Officer. Of course, I'm Kash Pandya, the CEO. If I move to slide two, the agenda of the call is myself and Tom will give highlights of the business. Manjit will take us through some detailed financials. At the end of the call, there'll be plenty of time for Q&A through our conference coordinator. Moving straight on to slide four, highlights of our third quarter 2020. We continue to have strong momentum and delivered strong revenue growth of 6% in the quarter, delivering $103.6 million of revenue.

Corresponding, we saw EBITDA expand higher than our revenue, as you'd expect for our business model, and grew by some 9% adjusted EBITDA growth, delivering a $57.4 million quarter three growth. Most importantly, we're very pleased that we've now entered the 55% margin range and into our medium-term target of 55%-60% EBITDA margin. That's a first for us for our business. Driving cash flow, portfolio free cash flow was at $133 million, some 7% increase year-over-year, of course, reflected due to the higher EBITDA and a little bit of higher maintenance CapEx. Looking at some of our other metrics, first of all, site count. We delivered a 5% increase in our site count, tower sites, and locations, slightly higher than 7,200 locations across our countries.

Tenancy growth grew by some six percentage points to a little over 15,000 overall tenancies for the group, delivering a tenancy ratio of 2.09. You would've seen also that we secured additional debt capacity by tapping our bonds for another $225 million with a yield to maturity of 5.6, which gives us a significantly more efficient financing structure compared to where we were before. Again, I remind you of the August announcement of our signing of a deal to enter Senegal with the acquisition of 1,220 towers. We expect to complete that transaction in Q1 of 2021, and part of that transaction was also 400 build-to-suits over the coming years ahead of us. Moving on to slide five, just focusing on three key metrics. I've already mentioned the tenancy ratio of 2.09 and delivering around 15,000 now tenancies overall for our group.

We've added year-to-date to Q3, 856 tenancies. Our last quarter annualized EBITDA is coming in at $230 million, and the center KPI there shows a good trend in terms of growth year-over-year of our last quarter annualized EBITDA, and again, emphasizing the margin expansion to 55% now into our range that we've been articulating for some time now. Most importantly, it continues the trend of quarter-on-quarter EBITDA expansion. This is now our 23rd quarter of consecutive EBITDA growth. In terms of last quarter portfolio free cash flow growth, we've delivered $177 million, increasing of around 5% on full year 2019. We would expect this to continue the momentum we're seeing on this metric as well. I'm going to hand over to Tom now to talk a little bit more in detail about some of the other dynamics of our business.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Thanks very much, Kash. Hi, everyone. It's Tom Greenwood, Chief Operating Officer. Looking at slide six now, this is the COVID slide, which we've been presenting through the year, looking at the impacts on our business over the key parameters, workforce and operations, revenue liquidity, customer rollout, supply chain, and situation management. At a high level, the business very much continues operationally as normal, with field operations continuing to be classed as essential services in our markets, and delivering our normal power uptime as usual. As you can see from the middle column, and the right-hand column, there's minimal impact, and not too much change since Q2. The two changes highlighted here are the liquidity has increased through our bond tap. We now sit with $466 million of cash on balance sheet plus $290 million of undrawn loans.

On the tenancies, we have seen some slight slowdown in rollout from one or two of our customers in Q2 and Q3. We're guiding for tenancies to be at around 1,000 net additions year-over-year by the end of FY 2020. Within the previous guidance, albeit at the bottom of it, and I think we can say that we're getting a lot of tenancy orders in right now. Our sense is that without COVID, we would have ended the year at around 1,200 to 1,300 tenancies. It seems like we're getting those in now, and we'll be having some of those come through in early next year. Supply chain and situation management, as you can see, unchanged and no impact there. Moving on to page seven, the recent developments. I mentioned the bond tap.

That was a successful issuance in September, further reducing our cost of debt and cost of capital. This was issued at 5.6%, equivalent to $106.25 trading price. Of course, this 5.6% being lower than the 7% that we achieved in our large refinancing back in June. Good progression there on our cost of capital. The operational excellence, as I mentioned on the previous page, very much continues. Through this year, we've been having record levels of power uptime performance, maintaining in Q3 the 99.99% levels across all of our markets, which demonstrates excellent performance by our teams in the field. Senegal is progressing well. As a reminder, we signed that deal in August, and communicated at the time we expected to close in Q1.

We're very much on track with that, executing our 100-day plan in the market with teams on the ground, setting up the office, the teams, the systems, and going through the regulatory process. Very much expect to close that deal in Q1. Just on the subject of M&A, we are very busy still on a large pipeline of M&A, 10,000+ towers that we're currently actively engaged in processes one way or another. Some of those are in advanced stages. We're extremely focused on getting a few more deals signed, hopefully soon, and making those announcements. This is very much in line with our five-year strategy. As you'll remember, when we did the IPO, we communicated a five-year strategy of moving from five markets to eight markets, and 7,000 towers to 12,000 towers. With Senegal, we've moved to six markets and approaching 9,000 towers.

With the pipeline we have, we could see that progress much further on an accelerated basis, which would be great. Hopefully more to announce on that in the not-too-distant future. Moving on now to page eight, our sustainable business strategy, which is core to everything we do. We've been communicating that with you through the year and since doing the IPO. We've been developing our strategy and core focus. We've developed our strategic KPIs and targets. These are centered around three major pillars: business excellence and efficiency; network access and sustainable development; and empowered people and partnerships. For those of you who've seen our sustainability section on our website, you may have seen a 16-page deck, which is screenshotted on the right-hand side here, which I'd encourage people to have a look at if you haven't.

Date for your diary, the 19th of November, in a few weeks, we will be doing a sustainable business strategy presentation to investors. I'd encourage everyone to sign up for that. If you're on the PDF of this presentation on our website, you can just click on that red box at the bottom of the page to register, and we'd love to see you all there and talk to you more about all of this. Finally, in Q1 2021, so in a few months' time, when we release our FY 2020 annual report, we'll also be releasing a sustainable business report alongside that, which will build on and provide a lot more detail on all of these factors in that. Look out for that alongside our annual report in Q1 next year. With that, I'll hand over to Manjit to take us through the financials.

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Tom. Moving on to the financial results, starting on slide 10. Here we summarize the main KPIs, which I'll be talking through over the next few slides. Moving swiftly on to slide 11, we see continued upward growth in our tenancies. Over the last 12 months, we've added 856 tenancies across our portfolio, and 176 additional tenancies quarter-on-quarter, which was predominantly driven by over 100 new sites in Tanzania, 43 and 33 new tenancies in DRC and in South Africa, respectively. As mentioned earlier, whilst there were some short-term COVID-19 delays to customer rollout, our tenancy pipeline remains robust and our tenancy guidance remains within what we previously communicated during the course of the year. We expect incremental tenancies for 2020 to be approximately 1,000 within our previous guidance of 1,000-1,500. On to slide 12, looking at our revenues and EBITDA.

We've seen solid growth in Q3 with revenue growth of 6% year-on-year and 1% quarter-on-quarter. Q3 2020 EBITDA grew by 9% year-on-year and 4% quarter-on-quarter to $57 million. This now represents our 23rd consecutive quarter of EBITDA growth, a trend spanning all the way back to Q1 2015. We're also very happy to announce our adjusted EBITDA margin has stepped up one percentage point to 55%, and within our medium-term target range of 55%-60%, which we also targeted for this year as well, by the end of this year. If we move on to slide 13, you'll see the usual breakdowns provided, which are very consistent from previous quarterly updates.

Our customer base, FX mix, and operating company splits are largely unchanged, with 87% of our revenue year to date coming from Africa's Big-Five mobile network operators, being Airtel, MTN, Orange, Tigo, and Vodacom. 60% of our revenue was in hard currency, being either U.S. dollar or euro pegged, which translates to approximately 65% of our EBITDA being in hard currency. Which is further complemented by our annual inflation escalators, which we have in our contracts with our customers. As mentioned previously, this hard currency mix will actually increase further following the closure of Senegal, where we expect the revenue percentage to actually increase to 63% from 60% today. Moving on to slide 14, which provides an update on our CapEx.

Year to date, our expenditure has been $62 million, reflecting $49 million of discretionary CapEx and $13 million of non-discretionary CapEx. For full year 2020, we have revised guidance downwards to $80 million-$110 million from the previous guidance of $110 million-$140 million. This reduction of $30 million is due to a reduction in growth CapEx and reflects our expectation of 1,000 incremental tenancies for 2020 at the lower end of our previously guided range. We continue to expect non-discretionary CapEx to be circa $20 million-$25 million in 2020. Moving on to slide 15. Here we show a summary of our financial debt. Following the successful refinancing in June, we went back to the debt markets in September, where we raised $225 million through a bond tap issuance, as mentioned earlier. This tap was priced at $106.25, a yield to maturity of 5.6%.

This further reducing our cost of debt, which was at 9.125% at the start of the year prior to our refinancings. We have a strong balance sheet with our cash balance as at Q3 2020 being $466 million. When we combine that with our $200 million term loan facility, which is currently undrawn, we have significant funds to execute on our expansionary growth strategy and capitalize on the opportunities which Tom mentioned earlier. Finally, our net leverage is at 2.9x and currently below our target range of 3.5x-4.5x. When we pro forma in for the Senegal acquisition, we expect to be at roughly 3.5x, again at the low end of our target range, and importantly allowing for further debt utilization when required. With that, I'll pass back over to Kash to go through the final slide.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Manjit. On slide 16, and this is the last slide before we go to Q&A. To summarize Q3 2020, look, we've maintained our track record of consistent EBITDA growth and profitable EBITDA margin of 55% and 23 consecutive quarters of EBITDA growth. We've secured record low cost of debt, and further strengthened our balance sheet in terms of capacity to do expansion by tapping our bond for a further $225 million. As Manjit has stated, our full year tenancy expectation is around 1,000 tenancies to be added during the course of 2020, and within our guidance range. The medium-term guidance is unchanged with strong demand for pipeline of organic growth as well as M&A expansion into new geographies. On that point, I'm going to hand over to Adam to help us manage through the questions. Thanks, Adam.

Operator

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad, or if you're joining us online, please use the request to speak flag icon. Our first question today comes from Giles Thorne of Jefferies. Giles, please go ahead.

Giles Thorne
Analyst, Jefferies

Hi. Morning, everyone. The line went a little bit fuzzy there. Hopefully you can hear me.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Yeah, we can.

Giles Thorne
Analyst, Jefferies

My first question is on Airtel Tanzania. Airtel famously was the only one who didn't sell their towers in Tanzania, but they're now very actively talking about selling those 1,500 towers. I think that would take you, if you were to buy them, to 100% ownership of towers in the country. My question is that an asset base you're interested in? Is it an asset base you could even buy? Any commentary there. Second was on Airtel Tigo in Ghana. There's news flow out over the past couple of days of a nationalization of that asset. There doesn't seem to be much precedent for nationalization in your countries of operation. I'm just curious on your high-level commentary there, is that an opportunity or is that a risk? Especially considering you were the big beneficiary of the merger of Airtel and Tigo in Ghana.

Any commentary there. Finally, sticking with the theme of M&A, you very successfully lowered your cost of debt over the past 12 months. With that lower cost of capital, are you inclined to be more aggressive when bidding for assets? Bid a higher price because you've got a lower input cost? Are you inclined to have larger spreads on the assets that you buy, if that makes sense. How has your lower cost of capital changed your M&A approach? That's my question. Thank you.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Hi, Giles. Thanks for the question. Let me take the first two Airtel related points, then I'll ask Tom to comment on the M&A and the lower cost of capital impacting our M&A approach. Tanzania Airtel, look, we're very well established in Tanzania, and we see continued organic growth. At this stage, our view of the Airtel towers in Tanzania is something that we'd sooner focus on other markets and expand into new geographies rather than spend our resources in further market share growth through acquisitions in Tanzania. It's a good asset. I'm sure someone else will come in, and we think that's a good sign and advocates Tanzania as a solid market for a second towerco to operate in. Regarding Ghana, Airtel Ghana, Airtel Tigo Ghana, and the recent news I think came out yesterday from Airtel. We're watchful of the situation there.

It's not an unknown secret that Airtel, Bharti Airtel, are looking to get out of Ghana, and Millicom out of Africa. I think if the government do take that asset base on, then we feel very positive about the fact that the government will invest and ultimately sell the business on to a third party. There are other players outside of the Africa's Big-Five MNOs, being obviously Airtel, Tigo, Vodacom, MTN and Orange, who are looking to expand, and Free being one of those assets or businesses, MNOs, from Senegal that we've just acquired the towers from. We're watchful of the situation in Ghana, but we're also positive that the government is looking at this business there. Tom, on the M&A front.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Hey, Giles. Our cost of capital is something that we monitor, particularly when it's moving in the right way as quickly as ours is or has over the past few months. That is a good thing for us. It makes us more competitive if we need to be. I think the M&A that we're looking at, we always take it really on a case-by-case basis. We won't come out and say we're suddenly reducing our returns thresholds for all deals. I think to the extent we want to or need to on particular deals, it does give us simply a bit more flexibility, which is a good thing for expanding our business. We'll continue to monitor that. The deals that we look at and are looking at, we always look for substantial surplus over and above our WACC whenever we underwrite anything. That will continue.

Giles Thorne
Analyst, Jefferies

Just as a follow-up on that. This will be a big debating point, but it feels to me that the market's being pretty efficient when it's pricing your debt, but it's not being that efficient when it's pricing your equity. I don't know what your view on that is. I'm sure you would agree with me and more. Does that mispricing of your equity here, does that slow your hand or slow your appetite when it comes to do M&A? Do you fear raising equity here?

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Yeah. I think you're right. Our sense is that I guess we're obviously gonna say this, that the market is pricing equity too low. I think that we take the longer-term view when we're thinking about acquisitions and comparing acquisitions to our current trading levels. I think there's maybe one or two technical elements to why the equity trading levels are where they are. The perceived overhang of some pre-IPO shareholders, whether that's true or not, I don't know. Perhaps that's having some kind of impact on the price. We'll continue to do what's in our control and run a solid, efficient business, and keep on doing the right thing, which is looking for new growth opportunities of good assets in exciting markets, which we think will add value to our business. We'll focus on that.

Our view is the market will also figure itself out over time.

Giles Thorne
Analyst, Jefferies

Thank you very much.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Giles.

Operator

Our next question comes from Florian Henritzi of Bank of America Corporation Florian, your line is now open.

Florian Henritzi
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

Yeah. Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question. I got three. Firstly, you already have talked about the Senegal deal in the presentation. Just wondering if you could give us a bit more color on how things have been going since you hit the ground. Is it going as planned? Has there been any sort of negative or positive surprises? For example, is everything going smoothly with the obtaining the required permits and licenses? Just overall how the integration's going and how we're on track. That would be the first question.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Absolutely. I'll take this. It's Tom here. Senegal is going well, I would say. This being our sixth market set up, we've got a great team on the ground, some of whom have been in the business for up to 10 years. Have experience of setting up other markets, which is great. We're executing on our 100-day plan. We've found an office, we're getting some staff on board. We're having some staff transferred from the mobile operator, which is typical in these deals. We're having good interaction with the regulators. The process is very much on track. We expect a Q1 closing. If anything, it's possibly a little bit ahead, wouldn't change the expectation of closing time. I think Q1 is a reasonable time to assume still.

Florian Henritzi
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

All right. Okay. Thank you. Thanks, Tom. Then secondly, I was wondering how you generally see the South African market in terms of the M&A opportunity. I think you've previously mentioned that build-to-suit would be your focus here, but South Africa is a huge market in terms of towers. I was wondering if you just could give us some color around your discussions with the operators there. I think Telkom, at some point, they were reported to look at a potential sale and really anything you could say around M&A South Africa would be appreciated.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

No, absolutely. A big part of our strategy for entering South Africa, was clearly to have optionality, should some of the large portfolios come up for sale over time. South Africa is a market with 29,000 towers, and I think over 25,000 of them are still owned by mobile operators. There's clearly big potential there should one or more of them decide to sell. In the meantime, we're doing build-to-suit rollouts. A big part of it, as I said, is having optionality there, being on the ground should one or more of these come through. I don't think we can't speak in specifics on this call about exactly who we're talking to or what might be going on. I think there's certainly rumors circulating the market as you've alluded to.

We very much hope that our thesis that over time, South African mobile operators will sell their towers is, hopefully, we're starting on that track at the moment. Let's see what happens. Yes, it would be a big focus for us if that were to happen.

Florian Henritzi
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

Okay. Sure. Okay. Thank you. Just my last question is just on your margin. At around, I think, 55% now in Q3, looks quite decent, and I think it's already in the range of your midterm target. Just want to understand if the Q3 was helped by any kind of temporary lower costs related to the lower commercial momentum on the back of COVID, or if that development is really structural, we can expect this level of profitability to continue near term? Let me say on an underlying basis, since I assume your Senegal deal will initially be a bit dilutive.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Manjit, why don't you take that?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Yeah. Thanks, Florian. I think that where we are now is very much a structural piece. We see this as being part of our work that we've been doing over the past year to try and improve our margins. That's really been driven by combination of increasing tenancies but also operating efficiencies. I think as you rightly say, though, as we look to the short to medium term, as we start to integrate new markets, specifically Senegal, given the low tenancy ratio they come with on day one, it will certainly be somewhat margin dilutive. As those assets start to lease up over time, we'll start to see the margin rebound, and get back towards our medium-term targets of 55%-60%. Looking at our established markets, certainly you'll start to see more and more improvements in our EBITDA margin over the medium term.

Florian Henritzi
Analyst, Bank of America Corporation

Okay. Great. Thank you very much.

Operator

Just a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question, that is star one on your telephone keypad, or if you're joining us online, please click the Request to Speak flag icon. Our next question comes from Simon Coles of Barclays. Simon, your line is now open.

Simon Coles
Analyst, Barclays

Morning, guys. Thanks for taking the question. I guess it's just on the tenancy guidance. Could you give us maybe a little bit more indication of if that's specific in any markets that were causing a slight slowdown in rollout? How do we think about that in future? Is it just a pushback or is it a postponement, so those could be additional tenancies next year? I'm just wondering, you say Senegal is all on track. Are you already having conversations with the other operators in the market about adding tenancies to the portfolio you're buying? Because we know that's got a low tenancy ratio, so there's a big opportunity to grow there. Any more color around those things would be great. Thank you.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Hey, Simon. It's Tom here. In terms of the tenancy, I'd say rather than it being on a country-by-country basis, it's more on a operator-by-operator basis. There are really two scenarios which have meant that some of the rollout is happening a little later in the year than would originally have been assumed. One is, one or two supply chain delays here and there with the mobile operators. The second one is the group corporate keeping the purse strings tight in terms of CapEx spending in Q2 and Q3, which now appears to have opened up in the recent weeks. Therefore, we're getting orders in now for sites which have been in the pipeline since around the start of this year.

Hence, there's a lead time on those, particularly build-to-suits, which will mean that they don't hit the December 31st cutoff date for this year's reporting, but more go into next year effectively. Yeah, effectively there's a little bit of a slowdown in Q2 and Q3 because of the two main reasons I just stated which now appear to be coming through now. I guess the good news is the pipeline hasn't changed or gone away. It's just some are coming through a little later. On your next part of the question regarding the guidance for next year or the tenancies for next year. We'll be giving in the normal way, full guidance when we report our full year numbers in Q1 next year. I would say, I wouldn't expect us to significantly increase our guidance for next year.

I would imagine it will be in a similar vein as this year. Something like 1,000-1 ,500, for example, rather than saying 1,200- 1,700. I think it will be just a slight shift to the right that we'd put forward in Q1 for the guidance next year. Then the final strand of the question on Senegal. Yes. Absolutely. Very standard practice for us. As soon as we have a deal in a new market, even actually before, quite often, we actually sign it, we will be engaging with the other mobile operators in the market. Senegal is no different to that. Yeah, absolutely.

A big part of our 100-day plan is the sales work stream, which is very much focused on doing that, talking to the other potential customers in the market or existing customers, because they're already on some of the sites that we're buying.

Simon Coles
Analyst, Barclays

That's super clear. Thanks so much, Tom.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Simon.

Operator

Our next question comes from Jonathan Kennedy-Good of JP Morgan Chase & Co. Jonathan, your line is now open.

Jonathan Kennedy-Good
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Hi, Kash, Tom, thanks for the call and opportunity to ask questions. Quick one on Tanzania. It looks like some of the regulatory interventions made against mobile operators there is causing quite a bit of pressure on their revenue outlook and subscriber numbers. Kind of wanted to get a sense of how that's impacted your pipeline there and whether there's already been a recovery or whether that's still pretty soft. Also coming back to your lower debt costs, wanted to try and unpack how you think about your debt headroom and how many towers that could potentially result in allow you to purchase as you look at the deals before you. On those two questions, please.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Yeah. Hi, Jonathan. Great to hear from you again. Nice to see your report on us this morning. Yeah, so look, Tanzania regulatory sort of dynamics with the MNOs there, this is something we've seen before actually back in, for example, in DRC back in 2017, 2018 timeframe. The rules are the rules as far as we're concerned and there was an issue that not all SIM cards were registered. They've enacted that regulation, and the MNOs are adhering quickly to it. From past experience, reference to DRC, we see this as a temporary dynamic, and it corrected very quickly in DRC, literally within six to nine months. The SIM registration were back the following year to the same level. We think that this will correct itself very quickly.

In terms of rollout in Tanzania, I think Manjit mentioned that we've added over 100 tenancies in Q3 in Tanzania, for example. Obviously COVID had a slowdown impact like the rest of the world. We don't see any other dynamic shift in Tanzania, and we're actively in conversation with all our customers in Tanzania about further rollout over the next few months and progressing longer term. Regarding your point on the debt capacity and what can that buy us. Well, look, again, if you look at our past performance on transactions, and what we've paid, we believe that the facilities we have at hand today can deliver between 2,000 and 3,000 towers without having to do anything else further. Beyond that, we can always utilize the further EBITDA expansion through the acquisitions we make, and the growth that the existing business delivers.

Ultimately, if and when needed, we could also go to the equity markets if we needed to. We believe we've got ample capacity to add another 2,000-3,000 towers on top of Senegal.

Jonathan Kennedy-Good
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Great. Thanks. Maybe I could follow that up with a question on your cost of debt declining so much. Would you be comfortable in breaching the 4.5x net debt to EBITDA level? Is that you not changed your mind on that?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Yeah.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

No, Yeah, Manjit, go ahead.

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Sorry. Yeah, no, I was just going to say, we still have a good target of 3.5x-4.5x . We think that is a suitable target for this business. Having said that, if there is a suitable opportunity that we see where we may go above 4.5x, but for a very short-term period, and then subsequently rebound to be back within that target, we'd certainly look at doing that. I think we've stayed relatively within our target range for the last few years now, and we're relatively disciplined around that, it would have to be something of scale or something that will subsequently rebound quickly for us to go above it.

Jonathan Kennedy-Good
Analyst, JPMorgan Chase & Co.

Great. Thank you very much.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Jonathan. Good to talk to you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Alexander Vengranovich from Renaissance Capital. Alexander, your line is now open.

Alexander Vengranovich
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Good morning, gentlemen. Thanks for the opportunity to ask questions. A couple of things from my side. First one is a follow-up on the question regarding the outlook for the next year. Just wanted to make sure we're talking about the like-for-like comparison. Previously, you were talking about 1,000- 1,500 of additional tenants per year as a matter of guidance. After the acquisition of Senegal, are you now talking about the same base of the sites and tenants, or do you already include the sites and the business acquired in Senegal in your outlook for the upcoming year? That's my first question. The second probably related question here regarding the shift of the site rollout this year. Does that automatically mean that next year we're going to have different seasonality in between the quarters with regards to the rollout plans of the MNOs?

The last question is more of a technical one on the working capital volatility. Usually you were providing this metric in your presentation. Can you just probably briefly update us with regards to what's happening with the working capital in the third quarter? That's it from my side.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Yeah. Hey, Alex, Tom here. I'll take the first ones on tenancies and then Manjit can take the working capital one. The Senegal is separate to the outlook. When we say 1,000 tenancies or 1,500 tenancies, that is excluding Senegal. That's the five established markets that we currently have. We will add Senegal onto that at the time of closing. In terms of seasonality, I think we'll see probably more rollout in Q1 next year than we usually do, just by virtue of the fact that we're getting a lot of orders now that should probably come onto stream in Q1 or early Q2. We may see a slight change in seasonality. It's probably not material enough to change your model, I would say.

Yeah, certainly based on the timing of receiving a bunch of orders around now, that could be the case for next year. Then, Manjit, do you want to take the working capital one?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Yeah. On working capital, we've had another good quarter on working capital. The way to actually think about it is the movement from Q2 to Q3 in terms of cash balance has increased by roughly around $250 million. The majority of that is driven by the bond tap of about $225 million. Really $15 million-$20 million has actually come through underlying business growth and also good working capital management. I think there's nothing really to mention on that. We've continued to have a strong level of receivables coming through the business. Yeah, another good quarter on that basis.

Alexander Vengranovich
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Okay, good. Maybe just a quick follow-up on the cost side. I've noticed that there was some around $0.7 million increase of the corporate G&A over the quarter. Just wanted to understand whether this new level of $5.9 million of corporate G&A on a quarterly basis is a new sustainable level or should we expect some sort of a further volatility there?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Yeah, I'll take that one. We're seeing a little bit of an increase in the holdco cost. That is partially driven by the fact that we've increased a little bit of expenditure for some of the M&A efforts that we're going through. We'll give a more of a long-term guidance on holdco at the full year.

Alexander Vengranovich
Analyst, Renaissance Capital

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Omar Maher of EFG Hermes. Omar, your line is now open.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

Thank you very much. Thank you, gentlemen for the presentation. I just have one follow-up question on Senegal, actually. I was just wondering if you could share with us, perhaps what is your base case for tenancy ratio over the medium term in Senegal? I was just asking a question because in the event or in the scenario that the larger player, Senegal, doesn't take part in perhaps selling towers or co-location of any sort in Senegal, what sort of tenancy ratio are we looking at, and what is the base case scenario that you're considering there. Thank you.

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Hey, Omar. Senegal comes with very close to 1.0 tenancy ratio, there's not much co-location. There's a few colos on there from both Orange and Expresso today, but not many at all. Which is quite typical of when we go into a new market, to be honest, as the first towerco. Typically mobile operators, they do a bit of sharing with each other, but usually not too much. As we communicated at the time of announcement at our half year, we would guide to a 0.1 tenancy ratio increase per year over the next few years. That would be our base case, and that assumes colos from both Sonatel, Orange and Expresso. I think on your point around Sonatel or Orange, maybe not selling their towers, that may well be the case.

What we find in all markets is whilst operators may or may not want to sell their towers, they're very happy to co-locate on other towers, particularly that of an independent towerco like us. Because it's very attractive from a financial and operational point of view. They just pay a relatively low monthly lease rate to us rather than spending well over $100,000 on building a site and then running it themselves. The co-location product very much works with or without the mobile operator selling their own towers.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

That makes sense. Thank you, Tom. Lastly, if I may, on Ethiopia, if you have any updates on the progress of the privatization momentum there?

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Yeah. Hi, Omar, this is Kash. Good to hear your voice again. On Ethiopia, I think you would've seen some media attention to the market. One, we view that the virus has had an impact in slowing the process down there. We still view MNO licenses to be issued in those countries. We're actively in conversations with the major African MNOs who are looking to enter Ethiopia. Albeit our view is now that it's probably gonna be back end of 2021, driven by the global pandemic. We're still very excited about the opportunity in Ethiopia again, albeit that we would be only entering on the basis of getting a tower operator license, which is in the conversations, but again delayed, for the reasons I've just articulated.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

That's very clear. Thanks a lot, Kash. Appreciate it.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Omar.

Operator

Our next question comes from Dilawer Farazi of Royal London AM. Dilawer, your line is now open.

Dilawer Farazi
Analyst, Royal London AM

Hi, guys. Congrats on the results. Most of my questions have been answered. Just one last thing on the M&A. I guess you talked about, that you're in advanced stages of negotiations on a number of things. Are you able to clarify if that's something that's likely to be a 2020 announcement or more likely to be next year? Just to follow up on Ethiopia, in terms of the tower operating license, how long does that typically take to get?

Tom Greenwood
COO, Helios Towers

Yeah. Hey, Dilawer. Tom here. Thanks for the question. Yeah, look, certainly it's possible that one or more deals could be signed this year, i.e., in the next couple of months, and announced. Watch out for that. We very much hope that will be the case. That partly depends on how quickly other parties move, though, so we're not totally in control, as you can imagine. Based on where we sit today, that is certainly possible. On Ethiopia, it's quite a unique situation because Ethiopia is one of the last countries in the world which does not have a free and open telecoms market today. They have one state-owned operator, and they're running a process to issue licenses to mobile operators first and then potentially to towercos. Don't know how long it will take.

Originally, they planned to issue licenses in March, earlier this year, which has now been delayed. Kash mentioned some of the press reports recently, which have been around tower companies not getting licenses there because they want everyone to colocate on Ethio Telecom's infrastructure in the country today, which may delay towercos getting licenses further. We don't believe that that solution is the best for the market, because we think, and others think that around 10,000 towers need to be built in the country over the next five years. For that kind of scale, you need international tower companies there with capital and expertise to do it. We remain engaged and hopeful. For now, there's many other things more imminent and higher priority for us.

Dilawer Farazi
Analyst, Royal London AM

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Bertram Dreyer of DEG. Bertram, your line is now open.

Bertram Dreyer
Analyst, DEG

Yeah. Hi, Kash. Hi, Tom. Hi, Manjit. Thank you very much also from my side for the presentation, and congratulations for the successful tapping of the capital markets and also the good development on the margins. I have a question with regard to the working capital again. We see in all economies a tightening liquidity and the receivable situation of companies is of a high attention. What are your views and experiences with regards to the telecom sector more in general? Do you see tightening of liquidity, different payment behaviors of clients, and how is that in your value chain? Could you comment on that?

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Sure. Manjit, do you want to take that?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Sure. I think from our perspective with our M&A customers, as kind of mentioned previously, we've seen no material movement in terms of our net receivable days. If you recall, at H1, we were roughly around mid-40s in terms of the number of days, and that's something that it's actually tightened ever so slightly in Q3, which means that we are getting payments quicker and quicker from customers. I think one thing that we're seeing at the moment as well is that, in our markets with mobile network operators more generally, you're seeing increasing traffic numbers. In our markets, increasing traffic numbers has a direct correlation to cash flow for the mobile network operators. You're seeing some of them have relatively good months in terms of cash collections, and that's translating into payments. Really, for us, it's business as usual.

We're seeing no material movements in terms of customers not paying up. Everything is very much on a BAU basis.

Bertram Dreyer
Analyst, DEG

Okay, thank you.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Bertram.

Operator

As a reminder, that's star one on your telephone keypad or the Request to Speak flag icon if joining us online. We have a follow-up question from Omar Maher of EFG Hermes. Omar, your line is now open.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

Yes, hi. Thank you. Just a quick follow-up. Are you planning to provide some separate guidance for the year 2021, or it remains rather within the medium-term guidance that you've already provided?

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Yeah. We'll, of course, talk about that in our full-year results in Q1. Our guidance today is our medium-term range of between 1,000 and 1,500 tenancies addition next year.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

I was referring to financial guidances, so on revenue growth, margins, and so on.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Sure. Manjit, do you want to take that?

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

Yeah, I'll take that one. What we'll do at the end of the year when we do our full-year announcement, we'll give similar guidance levels to what we gave previously. We'll talk through revenue per tenant, number of new incremental tenancies split up between co-locations and sites, OpEx, and SG&A. We'll give you the building blocks, to which you can then utilize.

Omar Maher
Analyst, EFG Hermes

Thank you.

Manjit Dhillon
Interim CFO, Helios Towers

No problem.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. I will now hand you back to Kash Pandya.

Kash Pandya
CEO, Helios Towers

Thanks, Adam. Thank you very much, everybody, for the questions and coming on the call. We look forward to talking to you on our full-year results call in the back end of Q1. Thank you. Bye-bye.