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dbAccess Global Consumer Conference

Jun 4, 2024

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Good afternoon, everybody, and thank you for attending this fireside chat with Imperial Brands. This afternoon with us, we have Stefan Bomhard, Chief Executive for now of Imperial Brands, and Lukas Paravicini, CFO for now of Imperial Brands. I'm Jamie McNeil, Research at Deutsche Bank. We have just had the next iteration of what you expect to do for the five-year plan. I was wondering whether we could take, before we get into the next stage, what are you most proud of achieving over the last five years?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

I think, I mean, from my side, I think the most proud thing probably is if you look at Imperial and the year 2025, we are now in a much better shape than we were in the year 2020. I think we have very strong foundations also for the next five years driving forward, which I'm sure we'll talk about today. What, on behalf of the team, I'm probably most proud of, if you really look at it, our core business is in a different shape than it was five years ago. Five years ago, we were the number one shareholder in our top five markets. Today, we're holding share. We actually have gained these top five markets 40-plus basis points in the last five years. And we've invested in the brand equities of our brands, and we've invested in our sales capabilities.

The second piece I would probably say is in NGP five years ago, I remember some of the early discussions, so it was clearly, I think, a healthy dose of skepticism whether Imperial, as the smallest player in our industry, can actually play a role in NGP. Today, at our last half-year results, we clearly have a competitive offer in all three categories. We always believed there would be three categories, and we're gaining share in all three. While there's still a long way to go, I still, there is now real evidence that despite being the smallest company in the industry, we really have a role to play also in the industry conversion towards reduced-time product offers. I think what I feel excited about is as well that the capabilities of Imperial to compete in this industry are materially changed.

We have made significant investments in processes, significant investment in technology. I think the quality of management team that we have promoted from within, but also attracted from outside the tobacco industry into Imperial Brands, is something I think that will help us to continue to perform well in the industry going forward.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

How important is the cultural change? You sort of pride yourself on the challenge and mindset that you sort of brought into Imperial Brands. How important has that been to sort of delivering the success you've seen?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Very. Thank you, Jamie, for reminding. Look, reality is, unfortunately, Imperial, if you go back in history, was the challenge of its industry. It came from being number 16 to being number 4 in the industry through acquisitions and having an attitude about being faster and more agile, high-risk taker. For a variety of reasons, it kind of lost that spirit. I think, I feel in the last five years, we've found that spirit that was always a differentiating feature of Imperial in the industry. We've found that back again. We are seen as a challenging industry. We're proud to be the smallest. We're not apologetic of being the smallest. I think that is something that bodes well because I think this industry needed a challenger. I think it's the natural role for Imperial to play.

I think today, while we're not perfect, to be clear, there's still way more to go, I do believe we're now today much more the challenger. With that has come a significant culture change inside Imperial. Today, if you look at our employee engagement scores that we do religiously every year, you can see people are proud to work for Imperial. People are proud to work for the challenger company inside this industry.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I think a couple of weeks ago, you announced that you're going to be retiring as Chief Executive Officer. Lukas, you'll be stepping into Stefan's shoes. Can we just sort of address any concerns that people may have about your departure and what that means for the strategy and the culture that you've sort of set down through the team?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Sure. Sure. Jamie, look, let me just start broader. We had some investors a bit like, okay, because they only saw me as the CEO of Imperial Brands. Look, I look at Stefan, and for me, this is some of my 11th year as a CEO. And anybody who's been in that job just knows this is a 24/7 job.

Fundamentally, having driven Imperial in the last five years and having driven another FTSE company before and having worked with the team on the strategy in the last 18 months, very hard with Lukas, with Murray, with the rest of the executive leadership team and many people one level down, when we had the Capital Markets Day in March of this year, seeing the executive leadership team present the strategy largely on their own to the market, I felt this is the right time to step down because I felt I had done my job. I think the reality is, but I'm super excited. You talked about team and culture before. I think what's great to see, the business is in a different place.

We've now together developed by the executive leadership team and beyond, laid out what we want to achieve for the next five years, a clear north star, a clear compass. What helped me make that decision and should also make investors feel very comfortable, Lukas, who's going to take over from me, has been the partner in crime in the sea of Aurora the last four years. We've worked this together. Murray, who will take over from Lukas and we'll see him in the room, he was one of the key architects of the original strategy and, as you would expect, deeply involved in developing the strategy of 2013. I think what the board and we've done is about a clear understanding that as a large company, you have a responsibility to look at succession.

I think to be able to go to the market saying, with a clear strategy in the next five years, here are the numbers we want to deliver. Here are the key strategic drivers of that. Here is a management team that will take it forward who actually is well known to investor. I am staying on board to help for the right time to do that. Look, I have to say, I felt proud that we have achieved that together because I think it is an orderly leadership transition with a very clear, proven strategy that we will drive further. The final point I would make, the hardest thing was to step away from Imperial Brands because there is so much more to be done. My wife reminded me, look, there will always be a lot more to be done.

The reality is therefore I felt this is the right time to pass the baton over to Lukas, Murray, and the rest of the leadership team.

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

If I may, Stefan, I think, you know, while Stefan will enjoy his well-deserved next steps, I think it is also important with all what Stefan has mentioned is this is an evolution to the point we mentioned. I also want to make sure we understand from my side and from Murray's side, we're excited to continue this journey. We've built big foundations. We know what works well. We have established the CMD, the next strategy. We are excited to drive that execution for the next five years and unleash further value for shareholders. It is really more an evolution than any changes that we should expect.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah, I think that's very clear. Thank you. I think if we then now start to look at some of the individual markets where you have been sort of successful in the last five years, if you start with the U.S., it's your biggest market. It's the biggest market for everybody, essentially. You've started to deliver good share gains in recent years. Can you talk about some of the things that you've put in place to provide people with the confidence that it's a sustainable business proposition that you've got there now?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

I think if you start with the U.S., it is a principle that applies to all our markets. Fundamentally, what have we put in place the last five years? A, we have invested more money in the brand equities of our key brands, especially at the premium end and the mid-price end, the Winston & Co. If you look at the level of investment, less visible to investors, we do not break it out. I understand that. We have clear brand equities, clear understandings of what are the target consumers of these brands, reinvested in A&P and these brands. In the same way, we have invested in our sales force capability. We have increased our sales force in the U.S. by 40% than the start of strategy, which means we cover a lot more outlets than we would have ever covered before. It is not just the quantity. It is the quality of our people.

It's also the tools we've given to them. This will continue to drive performance going forward. As you correctly say, Jamie, you can see it in our U.S. performance. It's a business that has performed the last five years with great net revenue performance, great profit performance, and a nice drumbeat of actually either gaining share, actually gaining share in this context.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Given the sort of the pressure that the U.S. consumer is under, how do you see the sort of the market developing and what you need to do to make sure that you can continue executing?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

I think what, if you look at the U.S., what we see as a competitive advantage, what has allowed us to outperform the U.S. market, we have brands at every single price point in the market, which in a highly volatile market where consumers are continuously looking at different price points where they want to find the right brand for themselves, that has become a competitive advantage. That is not just Imperial in the U.S. That is across the majority of our top markets. I think that agility will serve us well. The brand equities we have at the individual price points today are stronger versus where they were five years ago. Now, to be clear, the U.S. is a highly competitive marketplace. That does not mean that we will be perfect every single half year, every single full year.

Again, we come to the point that we've sat consistently. We look at our top five markets as a portfolio. Our ambition is to hold our share flat in our top five markets.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. If we move on to Germany, I think it's probably been the most problematic market for you. It's turned around recently. Can you just talk about some of the things, why it's taken as long as it has to turn around, and what gives you confidence, or why shouldn't it continue to take market share because it's lost an awful lot of market share back to where it was?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Jamie, the exciting news is that you asked me the same question last year in the same spot, and we were still losing market share in Germany. My answer then was about, trust me, the must-win battles, the playbook we have defined for Germany is no different. It just takes longer to turn. The great news was when we finally closed the full year fiscal year 2024 after this conference in September, we actually did hold share for the first time. Share was up two basis points. At the half-year results that we reported in mid-May, our share in the first half year was up 60+ basis points. I told you it would take the longest and it finally has turned as well. Why did it take longer? Simple.

The years of underinvestment in Germany were longer than many other places because in Germany, it's still a very open market. It still means meaningful A&P investments, meaningful investment sales force. It took us longer to turn that around. The other thing also is the investment in better capability in the sales force took longer versus the U.S., where actually you can expand quite quickly and you can change work practices quite quickly. In Germany, because of labor regulation, that took longer. It's great to see the turnaround. On your sub-question about can now Germany wonderfully fly on at shares, I see some of our competitors are here in the room. Look, let's be very clear. It's a highly competitive nature. We know in our industry we have never set an ambition to gain market share.

We've set holding market shares what our strategy is based upon. We will always continue to drive to try to take market share, but we will always do this in the balance of what does it cost to take market share? What's the level of investment? What is the right thing to do? I think what investors should feel very comfortable with as we're in year five of our current strategy. Now, every single market in the top five has shown share growth at one point in time in this period. Germany is now the final one that actually has shown share growth.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. No, no, it's very clear. I think it's really impressive performance. In the U.K., I think the category dynamics are slightly different to other places. Can you just sort of talk about a little bit about what's going on in there and then perhaps some of the things that you're doing perhaps around Paramount as well?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

I think in the U.K., we have to remember that the excise increases, which is every year, is related to inflation. What you have seen actually in the last two years is a significant increase of excise tax, exacerbated also by the accelerator on fine tobacco to level it off with the normal combustible business. That has taken obviously an impact on the consumer. It takes a while. If you step back, I would say Imperial has actually managed very well that transition in the first few years of our strategy. We actually gained market share. When these increases came, we started focusing more on extracting value. Despite this inflationary impact, we actually were able to pass all the excise increase to price. We even took a further price this year. That will take a bit more time to normalize.

Let us be clear, within that context, I think Imperial shows that we can still take value of that market. That market has always been a bit more difficult than the others. We have catered for that. It is only 8% of our total business. We are very happy with the U.K. in terms of what we can do. We realize it is a more difficult market.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Perhaps another market that's been slightly more challenging of late is Spain. Can you just talk a little bit about the sort of near-term outlook there?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Yeah. I think Spain is a very exciting market. I do understand the U.K. has a bit of a more difficult framework. Spain is a very different story. I mean, Spain has been a market where we have not been able to take prices for many years because of the price point they were, where the competitors were. With inflation, that price point has moved and we have been able to take prices. It is a very affordable market. We have wonderful jewel brands, local brands, which are very powerful. We have also been able to take more pricing. It is the third largest market by volume. It is an exciting market. What you have seen in the last six, seven months is what we typically do. We balance off our capability of share gains with value.

In this case, after taking several years of market share, we decided to price ahead of the competitors because our commitment to market share is at the aggregate of the top five markets, not by individual markets. We thought that was the right decision to go ahead of the competition, which now allows us to monetize that benefit. To be fair, when we then saw that some of the competitors might not have followed in the same expectation, we very agilely went back and adjusted a few of the prices. You see already the market share normalize again. We will see the market share having taken a hit this year. That will change, but it was well decided because we wanted to realize value for our shareholders.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Yeah. That is very clear. Last major market, Australia. Some people point to it as how not to regulate tobacco industry there. I mean, can you just talk about what you're doing to try and sort of mitigate some of the pressures coming through from changes in excise and changing regulations?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

I would always say there's not much news at this front. It has been a difficult market from the framework, from the regulatory framework. Today, probably 30-40% of the combustible business is illicit, 99% of the NGP business is illicit. That's a framework. Again, I would go back and say what we can control is actually extract significant value out of that. I give credit to our teams, which work really under very difficult circumstances to have been able to continue to keep Australia at the top five markets. It is a very valuable business for us. I think it is a good example that even with this difficult framework, it is a market where we can extract value. We are very good at managing share and value over the last few years. We will continue to do that going forward.

We are very proud of Australia.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

On a slightly more philosophical point, do you think you can reverse or take back some of the illicit share that they've taken?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

To be honest, I think you would, in the case of Australia, you would need better enforcement for that. As soon as you get, let's be clear, Australia is exciting also because, to be fair, the underlying reason why the consumer smokes is nicotine. That has not changed. Actually, the nicotine consumption remains very stable. To your point, if you have better enforcement on the combustibles, you would see a better or a less dramatic loss of volume in our case. Also, what you've seen lately is actually they opened the NGP business in the pharmacy without prescription, which is still at the very infant, nascent opportunity for us. It does show you that the government is seeing that their policy might need some adjustments for it to work because right now, financially, it's not a business for them. They do not get the taxes they wanted.

From a health point of view, they are not helping smokers getting off smoking.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Yeah. I think in answer to my first question, you sort of said one of the things you're very proud of is the sort of putting the NGP portfolio back into Imperial across all three platforms. Can you just talk about some of the innovation that you showed people at the CMD coming out of the NGP platform?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Sure. I mean, I think what I think is exciting, you can see the frequency of innovation that we bring to the market. If you look at the last 12 months, it is meaningfully different versus where we started. Yeah. You can clearly see if I go across the three, if you start off with vaping, we were the first one of the established tobacco players to launch a 1,000-puff disposable product. Yeah. We have continuously upgraded our products. We have also adjusted to the disposable ban in a number of European markets. We are logically looking at innovation that will come to the market in the next 12 months. If you look at heated tobacco, we announced at the capital markets day the launch of Pulse 3.0. In a short period of time, we have gone from Pulse 1.0 to Pulse 2.0 and now onto Pulse 3.0.

What is a highly competitive environment. We were the second of the industry players who launched a non-tobacco-based stick product in the heated tobacco market, which given that we are the smallest, I think gives you some evidence about that we've really changed our innovation approach. On mono oral nicotine, to be clear, for more than a year, we were operating in the U.S. as the only one who offered, I call it the Euro or Nordic style, more moist product, also with higher nicotine levels because we've done our homework. We found a partner to actually bring what we think is a very differentiated product to the U.S. consumer.

Put it this way, we're not here to, we have a philosophy to announce our innovations to our trade partners first, not to our investors first, but assume that on NGP, we've built now the capabilities between our innovation centers, our partnerships, and the key consumer insights and the marketing capabilities to have a continuous flow of innovations that is relevant to the consumers that we target across all three NGP categories.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. I guess on the Pulse 3.0, can you sort of provide a little bit more insight into the consumer that you're specifically going after? Because I think obviously the category is developing.

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Sure. The reality is we are, as for half year and last year, we shared, we're gaining market share in heated tobacco, which, as we all know, is a highly competitive industry. The data point shows we must be doing something right, otherwise we're gaining share. To your point, what is that in the compass of being a competitive category? Happy to share. Fundamentally, we've done a lot of work of really understanding what are the unmet consumer needs about heated tobacco. Yeah. What we identified, we have wonderful competitors here. At the same time, we identified that as technology has become more complicated, and that's all for good reason, there's a consumer out there who actually looks for a product, a device that is easy to handle, simple, allows them a long usage of the device without recharging, and it's simple to operate.

Yeah. A consumer who's also looking for a good value for money proposition with great tobacco flavors. I think we've honed in on this consumer because I think that was a segment that we felt was underserved in the marketplace. The consequent market share gains give us evidence, and the research that we do is that our proposition does actually appeal to these consumers.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

I know you mentioned it in the prior answer, but modern oral, I mean, it's a category that everybody's getting excited about. There's lots of growth potential out there. I think On now has got 5%. Sorry, not On, Zone has got 5%. Sorry, apologies. I mean, can you just talk a little bit more about the differentiated proposition that Zone has got? You touched on it a little bit, but what is it that really appeals to the U.S. consumer about Zone?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Sure. I mean, I think what's important, we have always believed for the last five years, and it's one of the things that clearly arise, start with the consumer. Very important. The industry should not dictate what consumers want. The journey for consumers is hard enough to get out of cigarettes. Our job as an industry, including Imperial, is to put the best offers in front of them to allow them on that journey. Yeah. In the U.S., as to describe that journey, in the U.S., because you have historically a sizable oral nicotine market in the U.S., you had consumers looking for alternatives to go into modern oral nicotine. That market grew. What we did in 2023 and 2024 is study really what are the key unmet consumers.

We spent, as an executive team, we had a meeting in the U.S. where the entire executive team came out and actually spent time with consumers, competitive users, consumers of also cigarettes. Why they had not switched. In that way, with our significantly upgraded marketing and research capability, we identified that there was a need, there was a part of the market that felt underserved. Now, to be clear, the European market is much more about moist products. It was not rocket science to figure out if that is the preferred consumer offer in Europe, would not there be a segment in the U.S.? I think we fundamentally had a good idea of what was the unmet consumer need. We then kind of said, okay, what is the ideal product that we will bring to the U.S.?

We kind of went out with that, starting with the consumer mindset and looked who had a PMTA submitted for products that would fit that brief. That is how we ended up with the company where we purchased the rights for the U.S. and launched it in the market in February 2025. I think it is a beautiful example of what challenger mindset means for Imperial in the NGP field. Start with the consumer, understand where you can make a difference, work with partners, and then bring it to the right marketplace.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

How do you feel about the level of competition? Because there is an increasing amount of competition entering into the category in the U.S. How do you feel your position to deal with that?

That's where I come back to proud to be the challenger, proud to be the number four. Look, this industry has been competitive for a long period of time. Take it from somebody who worked for Procter & Gamble and Unilever. I mean, it's amazing the level of competition in this industry and with good competitors. Yeah. Modern oral is no different to the combustible business. I think given the growth that modern oral nicotine has seen in the U.S. from day one, we knew that competition would be there. I mean, to a certain extent, we were amazed how long it took any of our competitors to actually get a product that would be more similar to where we have been. Yeah. This game will go on for a long period of time because, and we welcome it.

Ultimately, we're all from a purpose perspective doing the right thing. If we compete with each other to continuously improve our products, the likelihood that we put products and brands in front of consumers that they find attractive to switch away from traditional oral nicotine or cigarettes to these products, that's the right thing for shareholders, that's the right thing for society. The great news is today in the year 2025, investors and regulators can see Imperial is really dedicated and invested in this area. There's money to be made for our shareholders as well.

That leads us nicely into the next question, which is around NGP profitability. You've made a significant inroad in reducing the losses that you're making. I mean, what are the steps that need to happen to sort of transition into being profitable NGP? Are there any particular markets or categories that you think will be crucial in helping you achieve this?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

I mean, going back again at the bigger picture, we have committed to a meaningful business. I think Stefan was very clear from the inception that a meaningful business cannot come at the cost of profit. It has to be meaningful and also profitable. I think we have shown good progress over the last few years on how we actually constantly reduced the losses significantly. Even at this half year, again, we have further come down on the losses. I think at the CMD, interestingly, we have also shared a bit more on what actually the NGP business, the different categories can achieve in terms of gross margin, and shown that they can be attractive from an industry point of view, but also attractive from an Imperial point of view as soon as we reach scale.

Now, clearly, what is important to us is balancing the growth rate with the speed to which we reduce to zero the losses. I think we are balancing, we want to reach the break-even through growing through profitability, not by stopping the business. We have grown double-digit the last two years. We committed to another double-digit this year. I think we have a good sort of balance of growing the business quickly, reducing the losses. What timeframe is probably more an arbitrary discussion. What is important is the trajectory in our meaningful business to build a profitable NGP business.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. I guess underpinning some of the progress that you've made in possibility across the group is the investment in operations, systems, and efficiency. We're sort of at the start of a multi-year ERP rollout. Are you able to sort of provide any insight into the level of cost savings we might expect from that?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

I would go back again. When we started, I was a bit surprised when I found 60 ERPs to be used. I think we have every ERP under the sun in our company. It became quite evident that if you really want to unleash or unlock potential, you needed to sort of roll out an ERP. We started two years ago. We are not just at the starting point. We actually started two years. We have one big cluster market going live very well. We have phased that over the next few years. We see benefits in terms of standardization, scaling up, efficiencies, better decision taking, and much more extraction of value. I would step back and look at what we said at the CMD in terms of how we can further invest.

Now that we have brought the challenger mindset, we have also brought a lot of people from outside who are fast-moving consumer goods. How do we actually unleash their full potential by delivering better processes, better technology, and better data? I would say the ERP is just the starting point, is one of the pillars to how we see that one part of that investment we committed in the CMD will deliver a lot of self-help in terms of much more efficiency and better usage of data going forward. That is part of how we see the future delivering value.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. I think if we then sort of look about what you need to do for the rest of the year in terms of deliver an acceleration in the second half to hit the sort of the guidance you've put out there, can you sort of talk about the things that you're expecting to achieve to get us to that guidance?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Yeah. I think this is a valid question in terms because we obviously have a different first half and the second half. It's not very different from the last two years where we had the same phasing. To be fair, the answer is also not much different from the last two years. In the same way, there's nothing new here in terms of most of this will deliver by two things. One is we take a lot of pricing at the beginning, and then that will flow through in the second half, and you have ongoing gearing. Nothing new to see here. We are actually slightly better off than last year at the half year. The delta to the full year is not very different. I'm very, very committed to delivering the guidance.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. I think one of the sort of really important things for investors over the last couple of years has been shareholder returns. Can you talk about the level of conviction you've got in being able to sustain the cash flow to support your dividend and what is now an evergreen share buyback policy?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

I think we were proud, and it's part of our commitment to have an evergreen share buyback for the next five years. That means every year for the next five years, we are committed to give a share buyback. I don't think there are many companies out there who will give you that commitment. When we commit to something, there is quite a lot of convincement and work to make sure that we can deliver that. I think if you go back, our commitment comes from two points. We have given an AOP growth guidance of 3%-5% over the five years, which is a very achievable growth rate, which is also the good balance between investing in the future, but also extracting value in terms of profit and cash.

If you pair that with our very disciplined cash usage, which is guided through the capital allocation, that gives us the confidence that the combination of both will be able to deliver that share buyback. Through the share buyback, very important to us, is a high single-digit EPS, which is really what we're looking for.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. What's the difference, do you think, in the messaging between a normal buyback and an evergreen buyback, and what investors should take away from that?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

It is important for us. Remember, at the beginning, there was a lot of discussion. You should come out and do the share buyback. Why do you not do the share buyback? We felt that we want to go through the capital allocation, making sure that we get our business right, we invest sufficiently in the business without going overboard. It is still an organic strategy. It is bolt-on M&As where possible, deliver our balance sheet, have a strong balance sheet, and then we can do that. We believe that one of the beauties of our business is that we will remain a combustible business for many years to come while we build a meaningful NGP business. That is hugely cash rich. We believe that commitment should show you that we are confident in how we run our business, in the health of our business. I think that is a key value driver for the next five years.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Given the importance of combustibles, how do you feel about the sort of the change in personnel at the regulators, principally in the U.S., but also some of the potential changes in regulation that are coming down the track in Europe?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Listen, I mean, I think the regulation is something that we have lived with for the last 40 years. I remember when I joined this company, everybody talked about regulation and everything changing. I sort of really got a bit scared at the beginning until I realized there's a lot of noise, but actually the trend is quite stable. Yes, there are lots of changes in the U.S. To be fair, if you step back in the U.S., the current administration is probably more pro-business, less regulation, and that bodes well for us. The U.S. is also very well known for being a rule-based regulatory body, which has to consider unintended consequences. You have a legal avenue as well. I think that won't change. That bodes well for us. In Europe, you see actually quite a stable environment as well.

It doesn't only go in one direction, but it's quite stable. You have to get the agreement of 27, 28, I forgot the number now, but 28 member states all have to agree to that. It is something that we are good at managing. It's something we have experience, etc. I don't think that is something that will change our guidance for the future.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Do you think there's been any sort of step up from this administration in terms of enforcing the regulation in the U.S.? I mean, there's been some examples of their sort of seizing things.

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Listen, I think there is the right messaging at the top. I mean, at the government, at the federal level, there's a lot of intent. I think clearly they obviously have a view on China, etc. That should actually bode well for us. Have we seen a lot of actions following that good intent? Not yet. Okay. I think that we have to be realistic. We do not build in our future plans, neither short term nor medium term, any significant change to that. What we do see, and I think that is very important, there is a significant change at state level. If you take Louisiana, which is a state we like to take because it is probably most advanced, they have passed legislation whereby actually all products, vape products sold in the state have to be on a positive list.

Unless you are not on that list, you cannot be sold. The enforcement is much better. The enforcement is easier because it is a much smaller geographic dimension. Nowadays, there are more than 50 states in the U.S. which are going through the same legislative process. If not all, but many of those come through, you would see an improvement in the volumes.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Of your vape business or of your combustible business or both?

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Combustible because it will limit the number of illicit.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Yeah. Okay. I think we're drawing towards the end, but perhaps I might sort of ask you, Stefan, to sort of comment on the business that you've left behind very briefly or you're leaving behind. And then Lukas, perhaps what you're most excited about taking on the sort of the CEO role?

Stefan Bomhard
CEO, Imperial Brands

Sure. I mean, I think it's a different business today. I think now this business stands on much stronger foundations than it was five years ago. That relates to its core business, the core combustible business, and it also relates to the NGP business. I think the culture point that you said before, it has now a much more clearly defined role within the industry. It's a challenger. It has a differentiated strategy that I think is a great way to pass on the baton over to Lukas to take it to the next step. There is also, I would say, a lot of things left to be done inside this company.

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Yeah. From my side, I'm hugely excited with the opportunity. I'm grateful also that I get the base, which is much better than we had five years. I'd also be very honest with you. I mean, as much as I'm prepared, as much as I've worked in this business, this is a different role. It's different to manage a financial team where it's just very logic numbers space to go to the CEO. Stefan and myself have discussed this at length, and he will stay with me as a mentor. I'm very conscious of that big step change that that means. I'm also excited because I do believe, like Stefan said, we have had a good run, but there is still more to come. I think our view is it's not about what we have done in the past.

For those who have invested in Imperial, we need to make sure that they get the next round of value creation. I believe there is, if we stay close to the consumer, which we have started, we can build distinctive brands, we can accelerate innovation, and we can further harness value out of the combustible, which is pillar number one. Through the same methodology, because we know our consumer better, we can deliver a meaningful NGP business. I'm hugely excited also with the team that Stefan has left behind, not just the executive team, which is a phenomenal team, which owns the strategy together, but the larger team that we have assembled. I'm excited. This comes back to my heritage as a finance manager, is that the value that we can create does show back in the share buyback and the dividend yield.

Jamie McNeill
Analyst, Deutsche Bank

Okay. I think we're just about out of time. Thank you, Stefan. Thank you, Lukas. Thank you, everybody.

Lukas Paravicini
CFO, Imperial Brands

Thank you very much.

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