Good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to our IFRS 17 education event. The aim today is to provide an introduction to IFRS 17 and show how it applies to Legal & General. We will talk you through our approach and some of the decisions we have made, and how these will indicatively impact the balance sheet and P&L.
Before I start, please note that the usual forward-looking statements apply. The information and numbers are preliminary, unaudited, and subject to change as we continue to refine the output. Some headline messages to start. IFRS 17 is an accounting change only. It does not lead to a change in the underlying economics of our annuity and protection businesses. It simply changes the timing of profit recognition. It does not impact earnings from our non-insurance businesses like LGIM or LGC. More generally, it does not impact our strategy or our solvency position.
It does not impact capital or cash generation, and it does not impact our dividend-paying capacity or appetite. IFRS 17 will create a transition day CSM and risk adjustment stock of GBP 13 billion-GBP 14 billion. This represents a significant store of value. As we demonstrated at the half year, we are on track to achieve our cumulative cash and capital generation ambitions, even under a zero growth scenario.
We expect a more stable and predictable profit profile under IFRS 17, giving even more confidence in our ability to grow EPS faster than DPS. We remain on course for cumulative net surplus generation to exceed dividends over the 2020 to 2024 ambition period. It is important to highlight that IFRS 17 does not change the board's view on the strength of the group's cash and capital generation profile.
To that end, and underlining our confidence in that profile, we've stated today that the board's aim is to continue to grow the dividend at 5% per annum out to 2024. In terms of timing, we're planning to adopt both IFRS 9 and 17 from January 1.
Full year 2022 results next March will be presented on an IFRS 4 basis, and we plan to hold an update session on IFRS 17 next May. Half year 2023, next August, will be the first official reporting period under IFRS 9 and 17. This will include half year 2022 and full year 2022 comparatives. IFRS 17 will impact the profit recognition of our pension risk transfer, individual annuities, and protection businesses. It will not impact Workplace Savings, lifetime mortgages, fintech, LGIM, or LGC.
In terms of adoption, we are applying the General Measurement Model to all our in-scope businesses. IFRS 17 introduces a contractual service margin, or CSM. This represents a store of future profits held on the balance sheet, which will be released into profit over time. Here we show a simple illustration of the key accounting differences in writing new annuity business between IFRS 4 and IFRS 17.
The notable differences are the basis of valuation of the liabilities and the subsequent deferral of the day one new business profit. This is instead recognized via the CSM, which is released over the life of the contract. Under the General Measurement Model, the CSM is always calculated at the inception date discount rate. This is locked in, and therefore does not respond to any subsequent changes in discount rate due to market conditions, leading to greater stability of future profits.
Another change is the introduction of the risk adjustment. This replaces the prudence that was in the old regime with a separate balance sheet item reflecting the compensation required for non-financial risks. We have broadly calibrated our risk adjustment to the 85th percentile on a one-year VaR basis, highlighting the prudence in our reserving.
Again, this is expected to be released over the life of the contract. On transition, we expect to create a CSM and risk adjustment of GBP 13 billion-GBP 14 billion, a significant store of future value, and we expect equity to reduce by around GBP 5.5 billion. Partially offsetting the CSM and risk adjustment creation is a benefit from the remeasurement of liabilities to reflect the removal of the implicit IFRS 4 prudent margins. In addition, there are changes to discount rates and the removal of non-attributable expenses.
It is worth noting that the CSM doesn't reflect the future value from additional investment margins either, which should emerge as future profits. The application of IFRS 9 will have a comparatively small impact on equity, driven by the exclusion of unrealized gains in relation to a small proportion of assets reclassified from fair value to amortized cost.
On tax, upon transition, a deferred tax asset is set up, which will run off over the next 10 years against the tax losses created as a result of the reduction in equity. This will have a neutral impact on our effective tax rate. It is worth noting that despite the overall reduction in equity, we still have significant levels of distributable reserves at LGAS insurance entity and group level, which further underpin our confidence in our commitment to a progressive dividend.
Here we show the Solvency II balance sheet alongside the IFRS equity plus CSM net of tax. We believe it is important to consider CSM alongside equity, given the large stock of future earnings. This approach highlights the inbuilt value of our existing business. It excludes new business franchise value, investment margins, the annuity business, and future non-insurance earnings, which are additional sources of value. The CSM represents a key driver of future profits.
Annual interest is added to the CSM each year based on the average weighted locked-in rate from inception. At transition, this is around 3%. The new business CSM will be important in showing how new business contributes to the value of the in-force portfolio, and ultimately the profitability of the business. The CSM also removes the volatility of assumption changes from the P&L.
These demographic assumption changes will now be added to the CSM and released over the remaining life of the contract. Growth in the CSM balance will lead to higher releases and therefore higher future profits. Roughly 80% of the GBP 13 billion-GBP 14 billion of CSM and risk adjustment is from the annuity business, with U.K. and U.S. protection making up the remaining balance.
Focusing on the annuity business, this slide also highlights the stable profit release we expect to earn over time, given that the CSM and risk adjustment unwind is the main driver of profit. We expect the CSM to run off at an average of 8% per annum over the lifetime of the in-force portfolio. Our focus remains on writing profitable new business volumes in line with our stated ambitions.
The incremental profit added from new business will add to the stable profit profile of the in-force book, creating attractive growth over the medium term. As an example of the potential value created from new business, writing GBP 10 billion of PRT would create around GBP 900 million of CSM and risk adjustment in the year it was written.
This is broadly equivalent to our average Solvency II new business margin for PRT. We would expect this level of new business written annually to deliver 6%-7% compound annual growth in PRT operating profit over the plan period. Clearly, this would be higher if we wrote more than GBP 10 billion per annum, given the current demand in the market. Investment return is the other main source of profit under IFRS 17.
The prudence in the discount rate used to calculate our liabilities and the expected return on the assets backing liabilities and the expected return on surplus assets is recognized in operating profit. IFRS 17 adopts a similar level of prudence for credit default as IFRS 4. We expect just over half of this prudence to unwind into operating profit.
When added to the market compensation for other risks within the discount rate and the expected return on our surplus assets, this equates to over GBP 300 million per annum. IFRS 17 also introduces a more stable and predictable profit profile through the CSM release. For L&G, this benefit emerges through the deferral of new business profit and demographic assumption changes to the CSM, which are then spread and released into profit over the lifetime of the contract.
Historically, these two components have made a meaningful contribution to group operating profit from divisions. Assumption changes have been difficult for the market to predict and often considered by analysts as exceptional. The deferral of profit for assumption changes and new business were partially offset by higher release from the in-force book as the expected CSM and risk adjustment releases are larger than the expected release of prudent margins under IFRS 4.
Indicatively, the deferral of these two components, based on their average contribution over the last three years, partially offset by the higher release from the CSM and risk adjustment, would reduce group operating profit from divisions by around 20%-25%. Thereafter, we would expect earnings to grow in a more stable and predictable way.
We are confident in our ability to continue to write profitable new annuity and protection business, to grow the CSM, and therefore related profits over time from this new base. Group earnings will also be complemented by growth in our non-insurance businesses. There is no change to our return on equity definition. It will still be calculated as profit after tax over average shareholders' equity.
We expect the ROE to increase post-adoption, with a reduction in equity outweighing the potential profit impact. We also expect the CSM to contribute to a more stable return metric going forward. Rating agencies will confirm their approach and ratings in light of IFRS 17 in due course. They recognize that this is an accounting change and does not change the underlying economics for our AA- ratings from Fitch and S&P.
The calculation approach is yet to be defined, although Fitch, for example, has said that it expects to add back the CSM in its financial leverage calculations. In the interim, we have provided our Solvency II leverage position. This has been moving in line with our IFRS 4 figures, with leverage reducing as we continue to grow the balance sheet.
Under IFRS 17, protection and annuity earnings will be more predictable than before, with the majority of associated operating profit being made up of the CSM and risk adjustment release, in addition to the expected return on assets. IFRS 17 will also limit the volatility in our numbers that we currently see under IFRS 4 as a result.
We have also made policy choices in both IFRS 17 and 9 to allow us to continue to manage our asset and liabilities on an economic basis without an undue increase in P&L volatility. The illustration provides the in-year and cumulative profit profile in respect of annuity business. The light blue bars highlight the stability and predictability of earnings under IFRS 17, and the removal of volatility from both assumption changes and new business profit from our insurance earnings going forward.
Determination of the detailed policies to apply under IFRS 17 and 9 has required a selection of options provided by the standard. Where we have made these choices, they've been selected to reflect the economics of the business and how it is managed. They typically limit volatility and lead to more stable earnings. For our annuity business, the implications are quite limited.
The vast majority of our assets continue to be accounted for at fair value through profit and loss, and we do not apply the other comprehensive income option for the liabilities. However, we have designated a portion of assets back in the locked-in annuity CSM as amortized cost, allowing us to continue our LM strategy without increasing accounting volatility from interest rates.
We have also taken the decision to reduce the volatility reported in investment variance by utilizing OCI for changes in financial risk for the protection liabilities, and by using fair value through OCI and amortized cost valuation rules in IFRS 9 for a small proportion of the group's assets back in these liabilities. To summarize, IFRS 17 is an accounting change only. It does not lead to a change in the underlying economics of our protection and annuity businesses. It simply changes the timing of profit recognition.
It does not impact our strategy. It does not impact our capital or cash generation profile. There is no impact on our dividend paying capability, which is why the board today has stated its aim to maintain the current 5% annual rate of dividend growth to 2024. We are confident in our ability to grow the CSM balance by writing profitable new business to deliver stable and predictable growth in LGRI profits of 6%-7% over the planned period.
As mentioned earlier, this would be higher if we wrote more than our stated ambition. We continue to see compelling investment opportunities across all our businesses, providing scope to deliver growth beyond this level. That concludes our presentation. I look forward to answering your questions in our forthcoming Q&A session. Thank you.