Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining this our quarter three trading update call. That covers the 13 weeks to the 28th of December last year. I'm also joined on the call this morning by Duncan Leggett, our Chief Financial Officer, so I'll give an overview of our third quarter trading before we open the call up to your questions, as usual, so as you all know, quarter three is our most important quarter of the year, and so I'm pleased to say that we've continued to deliver strong growth from our brands, which were up 4.6%, and that takes our year-to-date position to plus 5.9%. Now, this branded revenue growth has been very much volume-led across our brand portfolio, and so, as you might remember, continues the trend we saw in the first half of the year.
So with this volume-led branded growth in our key third quarter behind us, we're now very pleased to be able to raise our expectations for trading profit for this financial year. Looking at a couple of other headlines, group sales increased by 3.1% on a constant currency basis, which means that after the first three quarters, group sales are now ahead by 4%. You may recall that that's against a fairly strong comparative. At this point last year, our Q3 year-to-date sales were up 17.1%. So as we lap this strong comparative, this further strong growth demonstrates the strength and continued relevance of our portfolio of brands. Of course, that strong brand performance continues to be underpinned by our branded growth strategy, leveraging our great market-leading brands and driving growth by bringing highly relevant new product innovation to market.
And that's based on our in-depth understanding of consumer needs and trends. And we also support our major brands with engaging and meaningful advertising and marketing campaigns. And that keeps the brands relevant and top of mind for consumers. And then we deliver excellent in-store execution through our strong retail partnerships. And whilst this is always important, it's especially so in quarter three, which, as we know, is our key quarter in terms of sales. Now, as I've said before, our brand-building model is actually very similar to some large-cap multinational branded food businesses. In fact, we see ourselves as just a much smaller version of one of these multinationals. The main difference, of course, is that we're still in the early stages of our international expansion. And I'd argue that our size and culture make us more agile and so quicker to respond to consumer needs.
Now, as I've said many times, brand investment is really important to our branded growth model. And we invest strongly behind our brands in our third quarter. And this year was no exception. So Ambrosia, Bisto, Batchelors, Oxo, Sharwood's, and Mr. Kipling, they all benefited from advertising support in the run-up to Christmas, demonstrating continued commitment to building strong brands for the long term. In terms of product innovation, we again introduced a number of new products. And that's based on our in-depth consumer understanding. And again, these have helped deliver incremental sales. And they include things like The Spice Tailor, expanding into a broader range of East Asian cooking sauce kits, and FUEL10K, extending into the broader cereal market with multigrain flakes, and Loyd Grossman with both tomato and mascarpone sauce, and expanding into pesto. So to name just a few of the things we did.
Now, one of the key trends we've been seeing during this third quarter is consumers trading up and treating themselves over Christmas, and therefore, our premium ranges, including Ambrosia Deluxe Desserts, Bisto Best Gravy, and Mr. Kipling Signature Brownie Bites, have grown strongly in quarter three. In fact, this continues the trend that we've seen from the first half of the year and has been an important driver of our growth in the quarter. At the start of this year, we said that we expected to see a return to volume growth this year, and that's following the price-led sales growth last year, when, of course, we were recovering input cost inflation, well, you'll remember that we delivered significant volume growth in half one of this year, and this has continued into quarter three with branded volumes up 7% in the quarter.
Once again, we also grew our overall market share. And our volume share gains have been ahead of value share gains, which again is a continuation of the shape that we delivered in half one. So for now, turn to look at our grocery business. Our sales increased by 2.2%, very much led by our brands, which were up 3.5%. Now, I've already mentioned that Ambrosia Deluxe and Bisto Best Gravy had a good quarter. And we also had a number of very good performances across the rest of the grocery portfolio. Loyd Grossman's sales grew very well, supported by those new products, so tomato and mascarpone sauce and pesto, both of which we launched in the first half of the year. Nissin's Soba and Cup Noodles again grew strongly, double-digit.
In fact, in the first three quarters of the year, it's now surpassed Oxo in terms of revenue as a result of its phenomenal consistent growth in recent years. Nissin continues to take both volume and value share, demonstrating its very strong appeal to the U.K. consumer. It's also been bolstered this year by the addition of the authentic Demae Ramen noodle range. As you know, one of our strategic pillars is to extend our brands into new categories. Sales in those new categories took another step up, increasing 38% and against a very strong quarter this time last year. Now, yet again, Ambrosia Porridge pots led the way. We're very pleased to have achieved more distribution this quarter. We again advertise them on TV. Such has been the success of these porridge pots.
We're now just launching to market our fifth flavor, which is Sweet Cinnamon, which has just gone into stores. Again, all the variants are ready to eat, deliciously creamy, and yet low in fat. Also driving the new category's performance was Cape Herb & Spice, which is going from strength to strength, with sales more than tripling versus last year. The brand now has got very wide distribution. It's available in all the major multiple retailers. And the best-selling SKU is Texan Steakhouse, but also the new Greek Lemon and Herb, which was actually the third best seller in the quarter. Now, moving to the brands that we've acquired over the last couple of years, we're really pleased with the progress that these have made with both The Spice Tailor and FUEL10K, growing sales in double digits in the quarter.
The Spice Tailor continues to perform very well, both at home and overseas. We continue to leverage our innovation capabilities, applying them to unlock the potential of this great authentic brand. This quarter benefited from the extension into Chinese and into East Asian sauce kits with flavors like spicy Kung Pao and Japanese Teriyaki, both of which helped deliver that double-digit growth. Moving to FUEL 10K, the more time we spend with this brand, the more we're encouraged about its potential, both in the U.K. and stretching the brand beyond this breakfast heartland, but also the potential opportunity for expansion into overseas markets. This quarter, FUEL 10K's Core Granola range again grew very strongly, while the recently launched 25-gram Ultimate Protein Drinks also contributed to the growth.
We've also recently moved into the mainstream big box breakfast cereal part of the category, where we launched multigrain flakes in the quarter, and we've just introduced multigrain hoops as well. They've got 30% less sugar than others in the market. They're high in protein and fiber, so perfect for those looking for a healthy breakfast option. Turning to sweet treats, sales increased by 5.5% in the quarter. Within this, the branded side of the business delivered very strong volume-led growth, with revenue up 8.9% and volumes up 10%, which we're obviously very pleased with. Both Mr. Kipling and Cadbury Cake were fairly equal contributors to the shape of the growth in the quarter. They both grew ahead of the market. Non-branded sales were in line with last year. Mr. Kipling had a strong Christmas. We sold 20% more Mr. Kipling branded mince pies.
And within this, we more than doubled sales of our premium signature mince pies. As I mentioned earlier, we've definitely seen consumers trading up over the last couple of quarters. And this includes into our signature Brownie Bites, which had another strong quarter following the excellent growth delivered in half one. Cadbury Cake also had a very good period of growth. And you may have seen in our statement this morning that we've recently extended the license we hold with Mondelēz to manufacture, sell, and distribute Cadbury Cake through to 2028. A brief word on the non-branded side of the business, then. I mentioned that sweet treats non-branded sales were in line with last year. And over the medium term, that would be our expectation.
Although the nature of this part of the business is such that it might be a bit lumpy from year to year, but over the medium to long term, it should be broadly flat. In grocery, non-branded sales were 9.3% lower, largely due to some contract exits. But we're also seeing some evidence of consumers continuing to trade up into our brands from private label. Now, looking at our international businesses, these made some further very good progress in the quarter, with overall sales up 29% and double-digit growth in all our target regions. And as a reminder, our three key brands, which are a strategic focus for us overseas, are Mr. Kipling, Sharwood's, and The Spice Tailor. And as I alluded to at the interim, we're also now seeing an increased opportunity for FUEL 10K to expand overseas as well. So in Australia, Mr.
Kipling was again a key driver of growth. This was down to the strength of our core cake slices range and some new flavors of baked tarts. We also expanded our brand investment in Mr. Kipling to a third region in Australia with a five-month campaign using our Little Thief advert, and additionally, as we start to expand in Australia beyond cake and Indian cooking sauces, we've now got an early presence in the gravy category, where we've launched under the Paxo brand, which is often an encouraging start and performed pretty well in the quarter. Now, as we've said before, sometimes the quarterly sales profiles for cake in Australia can fluctuate a little. As far as Q3 is concerned, some Mr. Kipling orders shipped a little earlier than we expected, so it's landed in quarter three rather than in quarter four.
Quarter four sales growth in Australia may turn out to be a bit lighter than we saw in Q3. But the key thing is that we perform well in market. And that absolutely continues to be the case. In North America, The Spice Tailor grew strongly due to increased distribution in Metro and Sobeys in Canada, firmly establishing the brand in market and also supported this quarter by the various seasonal activity. And in the US, we're now in market with our first customer with The Spice Tailor, where we're seeing some promising early results. And then finally, in EMEA, Sharwood's was a standout performer as we delivered increased distribution in Germany, Belgium, Spain, and in Portugal. So that's a run-through of some of the key highlights in Q3.
As we look ahead to Q4, as you'd expect, we've got strong plans in place, including further new product launches, advertising support for our brands, and impactful execution lined up for in-store. And as we referred to in the statement this morning, we're expecting the level of volume growth to moderate during the fourth quarter as we lap more of those promotional price changes that we made last year. And certainly, as we go into next year, we expect sales growth to be much more balanced between a blend of volume growth and of price. So to wrap up, then, we've had a very good Christmas characterized by strong volume-led branded sales growth in both grocery and sweet treats, with a clear trend of consumers trading up to premium ranges. And we've also taken further market share.
And we've continued to live on all the pillars of our five-pillar growth strategy, with sales from new categories up 38%, our international business up 29%, and double-digit growth in all our target regions.
And then The Spice Tailor and FUEL 10K continue to grow very strongly as we apply our growth model to those acquired brands. And as I mentioned right at the start, given that strong branded performance in our key quarter, we're now guiding to the upper end of expectations for this financial year. So I can also tell you that quarter four started well. And I think we're in good shape for the rest of this financial year and, in fact, beyond. And so with that, I'd like to thank everyone for your time this morning. I'll stop there and pass back to the operator. And Duncan and I will be more than happy to take your questions. Thank you.
Thank you, Alex. To ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad now. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. When preparing to ask your question, please ensure that your device is unmuted locally. We will allow for a momentary pause for you to register your questions. Our first question is from Charles Hall of Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.
Morning, Alex. Morning, Duncan. Well done. Another good quarter. Good morning. Good morning. A couple of questions, please. So firstly, could you just talk a little bit about the inflationary environment that you're currently seeing and how your pricing strategy will run through this year, as in the calendar year rather than just the financial year? And secondly, great to have extended the Mondelēz contract. Are there any changes in that contract, or is it business as usual?
Yeah. Morning, Charles. Yes, thank you. So inflation environment, I mean, we are obviously, like everybody's seeing, some inflation creeping back into the system again. But it's relatively benign. We see this as almost a return to that sort of low single-digit year-on-year inflation. And that's therefore what's likely to feed through into our pricing as we go into next year. So essentially getting back to the rhythm that the industry was in prior to COVID and prior to the very high levels of inflation we saw. So I think that's pretty straightforward. And the Mondelēz contract is broadly the same as the previous one, really. No significant changes to it that are worthy of note.
Perfect. That's helpful. Thanks.
Our next question is from Kareen Laios of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the presentation and congratulations on the strong results. I just had a quick question with regards to your outstanding bonds overseas there. The call premium steps down in June 2025. Any particular plans to potentially dig those out earlier? Thank you.
Hi. Morning, Kareen. Thanks very much for the question. I mean, we've got bonds going out to October 2026. So yeah, call premium steps down in June, as you rightly say. We'll be keeping an eye on it. Obviously, we'll be needing to refinance some of the bonds at the October 2026 deadline. So keep an eye on markets. And we'll see how things go from there.
Perfect. Thank you.
We have a question from Patrick Folan of Barclays. Please go ahead.
Morning. Thanks for the questions. Just looking at the U.K. branded volume growth, which you guys outlined in H1 was 12% for grocery and I think 19% for sweet treats. How has that evolved since then by segment? And my second question, just on any product launches or geographical expansion we should be mindful of in Q4. I think there's still the FUEL10K high protein noodle pots to come. Is that all we should be thinking about for Q4? Thanks.
Hi, Patrick. So branded volume. So yeah, the key driver here is year-on-year pricing. So you might remember at the beginning of the year, we said that what we've done is we've reduced our promotional pricing on some of our most price-sensitive ranges. And that's because we have a little bit of flexibility in our input costs. And that's worked really well for us.
So we've seen very strong volume-led growth, particularly in the first part of the year. What's happening now, and it started to happen during Q3, is that we're lapping when we made those changes to those promotional prices. So what you're starting to see is a narrowing of the gap between volume growth and value growth. So that's why you're seeing that difference in volume growth between half one and now into Q3. And that will continue through Q4 until eventually we get to a point where we back into the quarter where we're increasing our prices year-on-year. And you'll see that flip then where we've got more value growth than volume growth. So that's really the journey we're on with that. And it's all really driven by year-on-year pricing. And in terms of category expansion in Q4, well, there's two different things here.
So there's the ongoing promotional, sorry, not promotional program, ongoing innovation program. So on all our categories, we task our marketing team with developing new products that are suited to consumer changing needs and trends. And we have a three-year rolling program of new products that we're bringing to market. So you would reasonably expect that in the fourth quarter, there'll be the quarter's fair share of those new products coming to market. And the dates, by the way, are more driven by when the retailers have their reviews of their ranges and when we can then slot them in. That's slightly different from what we talk about with new category expansion. And that's when we're taking products into categories where we've not played before. So that's things like Cape Herbs and Spice because we've not played in herbs and spices before.
It's the porridge pots because prior to buying FUEL10K, we had no presence in breakfast. So that was our first step into breakfast. And it's things like the experiments we've got going on with branded ice cream. So there's two different things. So in the quarter, you'll see more innovation across the brands. I don't believe we've got any entries into new categories coming in the fourth quarter off the top of my head, though. Did that answer the question, Patrick?
Yes. Yeah. And just on the first one, is there any kind of quantifiable number you can give on U.K. branded volume growth by segment or no?
Yeah. We don't really disclose all that by segment. But there was more volume growth in sweet treats, which was what drove that very, very strong branded value growth. But there was, say, overall branded volume growth was plus 7% overall.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you, Alex. Thanks.
We have a question from Damian McNeela of Deutsche Numis. Please go ahead.
Hey. Morning, Duncan. Morning, Alex. I hope you're well. I've got a couple from me. Thank you. First question is, can you talk about some of the factors that are driving consumers from private label into branded? Because it may sound counterintuitive given the sort of pressure the consumer remains under. And then just secondly, kind of a follow-up on the inflation in question. Can you sort of remind us of your exposure to cocoa and your position on hedging there? And then just finally, perhaps just a few lines on the opportunity within gravy in Australia and how big that category is, please.
Sure. So factors driving consumers from private label into branded. I don't have an answer to that on a macro total market basis.
But I can tell you that certainly within our portfolio, there's a couple of things that are driving that. More recently, we've got what I talked about before, which is that shift in promotional pricing, which has made us more competitive versus private label this year than the prior year. So that's helped some consumers sort of trade up into the brands. It doesn't explain the trade up into premium segments of the brands, though, which I think is more led by what we've been doing with the brands, to be honest. And there certainly seems to be an appetite, excuse the pun, with consumers that if you offer a genuinely superior product, people are prepared to pay a bit more for it. And I think that's a large part of what we're seeing.
And so therefore, our innovation program, as we bring better quality products and products that are very on-trend for consumers, then we see people being prepared to pay for them and step out of private label. So I think that's the key driver, certainly, from our side. I don't know for other businesses. Inflation, as I said, yeah, overall pretty benign and low single-digit. Cocoas stand out. You're absolutely right. We don't use a huge amount of it apart from in the Cadbury products where clearly there's exposure there. And the extent to which we're hedged or not, hedges run out. And so ultimately, I think that ultimately flows through and has to be dealt with. And then opportunity in gravy in Australia. I don't recall the size of the gravy market in Australia off the top of my head, but it's a pretty decent-sized market.
But probably the broader point here is that we've got ourselves into a position where we're the market leader in both of the key categories we set off to build in Australia. So we're the clear market leader in cake and continue to grow strongly there. And we're clearly the biggest player in Indian cooking sauces. So now it's really about pushing our elbows out a little bit and saying, "Well, we're not just going to stop at two categories. Obviously, we're going to explore further categories similar to what we've got in the U.K.." And gravy is an obvious thing to look at, as are some of the other categories as well.
That's great. Thanks so much, Alex. Can I just ask a quick follow-up on that sort of Mondelēz chocolate exposure? Does the new contract or does the contract allow you to pass on cocoa costs or not? Or do you have to deal with them yourself?
Well, yes, we've got complete control over pricing, which we have to have legally anyway. So yes, we buy Cadbury chocolate from Cadbury, but we can price to the market at whatever price we want.
Right. Okay. Thank you.
We have a question from Matthew Webb of Investec. Please go ahead.
Morning, everyone. So I've got a couple of questions on the international side and then one broader question, please. On the international, obviously, you've posted a very, very strong plus 29% revenue growth number. But you said there was maybe a bit of shipment phasing there. I just wondered what you would guess the underlying growth number was. And then second, on the international, you obviously had a very, very rapid rollout of Mr. Kipling in the US.
I just wondered whether you could give us a bit of an update on that, whether that paused what the sort of rate of sale, rate of repeat purchase is looking like there. They're the two on the international. Just a broader question. I think previously you've indicated that after a few years of pretty wild swings in terms of COVID boosting volumes and then stale cost pressures, meaning you have very strong pricing, you've sort of indicated that the pre-COVID rate of revenue growth would be a reasonable guide going forward.
But I just wondered in the light of today's further strong growth on the branded side, despite the fact that you're now lapping some of the sort of more normal promotional activity, whether you think that guidance is still fair or whether you think that actually you're a better business now than you were then and should therefore potentially be growing noticeably faster? That's all from me. Thanks.
Sure. So let's start with international. I'll do them in the order you asked them. So obviously, really strong growth from the international business again. As I said, it was maybe a little flattered by that shift in shipments. Because what happens is that particularly with cake, the retailers take title to the products on the dock side, and then they're responsible for shipping it.
So it's sort of as they get it on a ship, it's sort of almost like the point of sale. So we don't have exact control over whether it falls into last week or next week. And so it can move around a little bit. But the underlying sales growth, if I look at EPOS till sales in Australia, they continue to grow really nicely. I would say that I don't know the math off the top of my head, but we would certainly be in good double-digit growth on international if you even factored in that shift in phasing. So still really, really good performance. In terms of the U.S., I think cake's quite interesting. I think if you look at it a little more broadly at North America. You might remember we launched into Canada a couple of years before the U.S.
And we're quite encouraged by that because that's really taken off over the last few months. So it's almost as though it's gone through an incubation period. It's hit a point of inflection. And we recently gained a lot of incremental distribution in Canada. And so Canadian cake is therefore a key driver of our North American cake sales at the moment. And obviously, a couple of years behind that in the States, we've got a good level of distribution, a few thousand stores. And what we've been doing is working on fine-tuning then how that performs in store. So we've taken quite a few learnings from that. We're making some changes to the packaging. And we're introducing some new product formats as well that will come to market probably in the beginning of the next financial year.
So sort of still working to build that, but quite encouraged by how quickly things are now starting to sort of grow in Canada. The only other thing I'd say as well is we don't see this as all international for us. It's not about just U.S. cake. We've got many irons in different fires in different regions across the world. And we'll continue to sort of build them all sequentially. We're not overly focused on any one particular element. And we're also particularly interested in what we think we can do with FUEL10 K, where I think we'll probably see the first overseas launches starting to come into the first part of the next financial year as well, which is quite exciting.
In terms of outlook, so actually, I think what we've said in terms of outlook, and I stand by this, is if you look at the kind of growth levels the business delivered pre-COVID, to your point, and it would be three% or so, I think, from memory. And that was broadly driven by half value, half volume, wasn't it? And where that value growth was a combination, a bit of price and a bit of premiumization. So what you've got now, I think you're right, this is a better business. And over the medium term, we would expect to perform better than that because you've got a core business still, which continues to perform well, driven by the innovation efforts. But then you've also now got a stronger international business, which is growing consistently well. You've got the new categories entries, which we didn't have before.
And we've also got acquisitions, which are the two bolt-ons. So they are what I'd call growth amplifiers in that they are expected to consistently grow faster than the core business. So when you add all those things together, you'd expect that the business over the medium term grows sort of mid-single digits somewhere and consequently ahead of where we were pre-COVID, if that makes sense. Yeah?
Yes, it does. Absolutely. Thanks very much indeed. Very interesting answers.
We have a question from James Edwardes Jones of RBC. Please go ahead.
Hi, Alex. Hi, Duncan. Two very related questions. But are we to assume now that you're happy with your relative price position versus own label in aggregate? And related to that, have you been tempted to go again on more aggressive promotional pricing given how successful it's been over the last year? Are we happy?
Yes, I think we are. But it's a very dynamic exercise for us. I think one of the things that we pride ourselves on as a business is we're very analytical on these things. Our pricing decisions and our promotional decisions are not judgmental. They are quite mathematical in a sense. And so we run econometric modeling in order to understand just exactly what any small change in price or indeed position in store from promotional activity would give us. And we constantly fine-tune accordingly. And I think we're pretty happy with where we've landed at the moment. The big shift was prior to the significant inflation of the last few years, we knew this stuff inside out. Minor changes in price and promotion, we would have a very, very keen understanding of how that would impact performance. And that was played into our promotional planning.
You go through this huge inflationary cycle. And obviously, all those price points of things have changed. And so what we've been doing over the last year is recalibrating the model so that we're again back to that very keen understanding. And what we're always trying to do, of course, is manage ultimately to optimize cash profit generation through optimizing volume, value, and margins and getting that sweet spot right. Bearing in mind that there's always the element that the more volume you put for a factory, the more efficient it becomes and the more it helps your margin. So we're always trying to balance that triangle to get to the ultimate long-term profit delivery. So really, that's what we've been doing. Long answer to the question, but we're pretty happy with where we've landed now.
Thank you.
We have a question from Andrew Wade of Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Morning, team. A couple of quick ones from me. First one, you sort of talked to strong execution being a sort of broad strong execution being supportive to branded volume growth. Obviously, there's a lot of elements to that in terms of marketing, leveraging the retailer relationship, in-store execution, new product. Just wondered if we could get a bit more color on that broadly and where you thought you'd been particularly strong within that. So that was the first one. And then the second one around acquisitions, Spice Tailor and FUEL10K. Really encouraging to see them in double-digit growth. And just, I mean, are they performing ahead of your expectations there? Or is this sort of broadly where you'd expected them to be at this stage? Thanks.
Yeah. Morning, Andrew. Yeah. So I think it's quite difficult to deconstruct the elements of the model because they all complement each other. So you've got strong brands that people know. You give people good quality products. And then you also innovate and give them new stuff that's on trend and fits with what they want whilst continuing with the advertising. And then you put big displays up in stores. But the thing is they all work together. And so I can't particularly deconstruct it. I think execution over Christmas was particularly good this year, particularly so in sweet treats. We know we've got more distribution across the board than we had a year ago. So I talked about that. In terms we've got, in simple terms, more products in more stores than we had a year ago, which always is helpful, of course.
And we're increasing over the medium term. We've always said we'll continue to increase the investment that we make in the brands in order to keep them relevant for consumers, so all those things really pulling together, and it all came together really nicely over Christmas when it matters most, really. As far as the acquired brands are concerned, yeah, great to see double-digit growth from both of them. But they're doing what we expected. You may remember on both of them when we acquired them, I said, "These are brands which we expect to make several times the size they are on the day we bought them," and that's the trajectory that we're on. And that's what we expect to continue.
Great stuff. Very clear. Thank you.
We have a question from Darren Shirley of Shore Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Morning, gents. Couple for me, if you don't mind. Just going back to sort of the M&A question, which Andrew touched on there. I mean, how are you seeing the marketplace sort of post the budget and the revised expectations around sort of interest rates and what's coming down the line in costs? Are you seeing any changes in vendor behavior at all from that? Or do you anticipate any going forward?
Not really, Darren. I mean, I think we've said before we're really fussy, and when we're constantly, constantly looking for what we're going to bolt onto the business next, obviously, we're delighted with how the first two acquisitions have gone. So doing more with that would be great. There is a lot of poor quality stuff out there, I'd probably say. So there's a lot of things that we've looked at and we're not interested in because there's no point in buying weak, poor quality brands.
So we continue to look until we find things that we the fundamental thing is, can we apply our branded growth model to it in order to deliver some really good performance and it be nice and profitable? And that's really ultimately what we're looking for. Yeah. I think the only dirty buildup down that I think we've seen a bit of a disconnect between, I guess, buyer and seller expectations. I think that has narrowed a bit over the last sort of 12-18 months. We'll see where it goes. I think in the environment you're describing, I think it's as important as ever as we maintain our fussiness, as Alex said. And that will extend to the financial and the return hurdles as well.
Okay. No, that's helpful. T o just ask another one on sweet treats, which was obviously nice to see the branded performance there. It seems a fair proportion of that has been driven by sort of seasonal lines and premium lines, which may be sort of distinctive to the Q3 period. Can you just give us a bit more color in terms of how the core performed in that? And do you think you're in a position now where you can replicate in sweet treats branded what you've done in grocery, i.e., deliver on growth on a consistent basis? Have you got confidence in that?
I think actually, if you look at the trajectory of our sweet treats business prior to the significant price inflation, Darren, it did deliver consistent strong growth. I think sweet treats is very sensitive to what I would call good quality inputs. You get the innovation right.
You get the promotional activity right. You've got the right advertising behind it. It responds very well. The only thing that slowed it down a little bit was, it's also more price sensitive. So when we increased prices, because we had no choice, obviously, that did slow the growth trajectory down. So I have every confidence that the cake business can deliver that consistent strong growth just as we've done in grocery. And if you look at seasonal events, seasonal events are a really important part of the calendar. So obviously, we've got Christmas, which some of us just had. And we're already manufacturing and starting to ship Easter. So we sort of go from one event to another. We've got then the whole period around autumn and Halloween as well later in the year.
You've always got this interplay between your base business and your seasonal business as the seasonal business cycles in and out. You shift your promotional emphasis during those periods from the core to the seasonal. It's just part of how the category operates and being in line with what the consumer wants to buy. To the best of my knowledge, the core was solid underneath. At this time of year, you're focusing on your seasonal because that's what everybody wants to buy.
Is the success of that seasonal the potential driver for margins? Because there's always been a bit of a disconnect between the sweet treats margin and the grocery margin as you get more confidence in that seasonal and more successful in that. Is that where a margin opportunity comes? Or is that across the board?
I wouldn't correlate that to seasonal particularly, Darren, I think. From our point of view, margins on sweet treats are going to come through further automation and investment in equipment, which is obviously that second pillar of our strategy, which is taking some of this cash that we're generating, investing it back into our operations in order to improve efficiency. And consequently, that will flow through to margin. So the opportunity we saw in Carlton a few months ago, basically. Exactly. Exactly what you saw in Carlton, yeah.
Yeah. Excellent. Okay. Thanks for that. Thanks, gents.
Thanks, Darren.
We have a question from Andrew Foulds of Peel Hunt . Please go ahead.
Morning, Alex and Duncan. Just the one from me that might be partially answered the mix is helping that, particularly thinking about that increase in premium. But maybe some of the other fast-growing elements are also sort of contributing. But yeah, it could just be a function of the strong branded volumes overall. I just sort of wondered how much was which.
It's quite a complicated picture, Andrew, to be honest. I mean, certainly, as I said before, sticking more volume through a factory makes it more efficient. And that's particularly the case with the cake. And so that's definitely played a role. Mix plays a role, not just mix of premium, but inter category mix as well. But also, I think it's important to see it in context of we do have. I think I've mentioned this before. We have a very robust program of margin optimization within the business.
It's always been a very important part of what we do, and our teams are tasked and measured on that as well. So what we've always looked to do right from the very beginning is to expand our gross margins sufficiently to fund the investment in the growth of the business. I mean, frankly, if you go back to where we were a number of years ago, that was the only way we could actually generate any funds for investment in the business, and that's what got the business growing in the first place. So that culture of being really, really keen on costs and really, really keen on how we optimize margins is just very much part of what we do.
Got it. Thank you.
We have a question from Matthew Abraham of Berenberg. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. Thanks for taking my questions. Just wondering if you could provide some color on the cadence of branded sales volume just prior to that Christmas period. I'm just wondering if you'd seen significant ramp-up in branded sales volume growth as you approach an event like Christmas and how you expect branded sales volume to play out for the rest of the financial year. And then the second question is just in reference to competitors. Just wondering if you've seen any change in the way that they're engaging in the market as they approach the onset of increases in the National Living Wage. Thank you.
Sorry, could you just repeat the second question for me? I just didn't catch the beginning of it.
That's okay. The second question's just in reference to your competitors. I'm wondering if you've seen any changes in the way that they're engaging in the market ahead of the increase to the National Living Wage.
Thank you, Abraham. Okay, that's clear. Yeah. So branded sales volume, let's just talk about that briefly then. So I'm afraid I'm going to repeat a bit what I've already said. But the key drivers here are, and I think probably the first thing to say is our model, our brand-building model, and the branded growth model and what we do with innovation and how we support the brands in itself drives the volume. So there's a backdrop of volume growth that we would expect to get because of the application of that model.
But then what we've got overlaid on top of that over the last 12 months has been the fact that we fine-tuned our promotional pricing on some of our more price-sensitive product ranges downwards. And so that's driven this really strong volume growth that we've seen this year because you've got the inherent volume growth from the program, and then you've got the price sensitivity that's better fit as well. And so that's really what's driven that. I wouldn't necessarily expect to see a massive difference in a run-up to Christmas, really. I mean, we would expect to execute well over Christmas, and we would expect to perform well over Christmas. But then you'd expect that in the prior year base as well because it's just a very important part of our seasonal sales. So really, that's kind of what's driven where we are today.
If I look, you particularly said about where do we see this for the rest of the financial year, so as we're in quarter four now, we are lapping when we were making those promotional price decreases a year ago, and so as a consequence, what we're seeing is we're seeing that volume-value gap narrow, so volume growth and value growth coming more into line. As we go into the next financial year, when we will have increased our prices, we talked about low single-digit input cost inflation a few minutes ago, then I'd expect it to flip the other way. We'll start to see value growth ahead of volume growth because our price per unit will be higher. Does that make sense?
Yeah, it does. That's helpful. Thank you.
Yeah,
and then in terms of competition, not really is the simple answer.
I think we saw this specifically as it applies to National Living Wage and inflation. I think we saw over the last year or so, we saw while we were decreasing prices, we still saw some competitors increasing, and that was because they were trying to catch up where they'd lost gross margins during the high inflation of the previous two years. As we go into next year, I've got no doubt that we'll see sort of low single-digit price inflation across the food industry because everybody's wrestling with the same input costs, so I think what we'll see is we'll see competitors putting their prices up sort of low single-digit, but we'll have to see. Everybody's got their own situation, so we'll have to see how that plays out.
Okay, that's helpful. Thank you.
As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. We will allow for a momentary pause for you to register your questions for the final time. Thank you. We currently have a question from Clive Black of Shore Capital.
Yeah. Morning, gentlemen. Thank you. Just two very quick ones from me, just listening to all the answers for which thanks. Firstly, to what extent would you say breakfast is emerging as a new significant opportunity for Premier Foods? And secondly, post-Cadbury's news, which is really good, and the performance of cakes, herbs and spices, are licensing agreements part of your growth strategy as well in a more substantial way? Thank you.
Morning, Clive. Yeah. Are we seeing breakfast as a big opportunity? Yes, absolutely. That's the case.
If you go all the way back to when we launched the Ambrosia Porridge pot, that was simply because we saw this strategic gap in our portfolio. We built a big business in the U.K. that really eats from lunchtime on, and so there was a whole gap in the morning where we didn't really play. The first step of that was obviously Ambrosia Porridge pots. There are more things that we will do in breakfast with other brands. But then, of course, the big thing has been buying FUEL10K , where we're seeing really strong growth in breakfast. If we look at our breakfast market share, it catapults forwards with some really strong share gains. So yeah, definitely, definitely we'll continue to drive that. Then I think moving on to the Cadbury news and the Cape Herb and Spice.
I think Cadbury, we've obviously had that license for a long time. It's kind of core to our business. And obviously, really happy to be continuing to work with the guys at Mondelēz on that. And Cape Herb & Spice was just something we came across when we were looking around the world for innovation ideas. And we came across it and thought, well, probably the best thing we do is just, rather than create our own, we'll just sell the product that we found in South Africa or in the U.K. for them. So that was somewhat opportunistic. So why am I saying that? It's because there is no real strategic intent to bring to market licensed products from third parties because we prefer, on balance, to own the brands. But those are two what? Historic with Cadbury, and the other one was opportunistic.
Just in terms of that brand ownership, does manufacturer really matter? Or are you more agnostic about just owning the brand and pushing it as opposed to having the capital behind making it an exclusivity?
Case-by-case basis, I'd say, Clive. I mean, obviously, we know that if we've got something that's manufactured outside of the company and we invest in the kit to make it ourselves, we see a significant improvement in margin. So obviously, we tend to look at those as a return on investment proposition. So in the past, we've taken products that have been made for us, and we've brought them what we call bringing it in-house. So we've moved to making it ourselves. And then we're just looking at the payback on that capital in the same way we would on any of the other capital investment. Yeah.
Okey dokey. No, thanks for the call. Thank you very much.
Thanks, Clive.
We currently have no further questions, so I will hand back to Alex for closing remark.
Thank you. So look, thanks everybody for joining the call this morning. As you can see, we've had a really good Christmas. We're confident about the rest of the year. So therefore, we're making that change in our profit outlook for the year. I think all the different pillars of the strategy are firing well for us. So all five pillars of the growth strategy working well for us. And we're feeling confident about the future. So thank you very much for your time.
This concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.