Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the annual results presentation for Primary Health Properties. I'm joined today by my CFO, Richard Howell, and David Bateman, my CIO. My name is Harry Hyman. I'm the CEO and founder of the business. We're pleased to come out with our results after what has been a fairly tumultuous period in U.K. debt markets. The good news is that the underlying operational cash flow of the business is very robust and strong, as you might expect, with 89% of our entire portfolio's rent roll of GBP 145 million being paid for by the British or Irish government. Like many other people in the property world, we're taking a little pause in the U.K. to see which way things are going.
I suspect that 2023 will be a relatively quiet year in terms of new acquisitions in Britain. Please do remember that we have the Irish market as well, where the accretive nature of acquisitions still makes sense. In the light of that, we're very pleased to be commencing our 27th year of consecutive dividend growth. The first quarterly dividend is actually being paid tomorrow, and that would be on an annualized basis, 6.7p per share.
In terms of last year's figures, our dividend cover came in at 102%, which is very good. Our property return, which I will talk about in a little bit more detail in a second or two, was depressed by the revaluation deficit that we experienced, largely driven by those rises in gilt rates that we saw in the fourth quarter of 2022. The positive news is that we're experiencing a marked uptick in open market value rental growth. That bodes extremely well for the prospect of enhanced income in 2023. We have very limited exposure to the development market, having only one deal with an end value of about GBP 7 million on site at Croft, West Sussex.
We've also done extremely good work on the debt side, and 94% of our debt is hedged out for the next seven or so years, and Richard, when we get to the financial side, will speak in more detail about that. Given this pause that we are experiencing in new acquisitions, our development pipeline is relatively muted. We have some GBP 53 million worth of acquisitions that we're looking at in Ireland, some GBP 14 million only in the U.K., and GBP 18 million of asset management opportunities, which again, David will speak to more about when we get to that stage of the presentation.
We took advantage, as you might expect us to do, of a very, very strong market in the U.K., and we disposed of 13 of our smaller assets well above the December 2021 book valuation, and that looks like a pretty smart move now in the light of where the markets have gone to. From a macro standpoint, the thematics of our business have almost never been stronger. We live in a country with an aging population, a growing population, and an ever sicker population. The trend worldwide is to move a lot more care out of expensive and inflexible, and during the pandemic, disease-ridden hospitals into the primary care arena.
Primary care is not just GPs, it's a whole raft of ancillary services, including community diagnostics, including physiotherapy, mental health, all sorts of services that can be delivered adjacent to the GP offices, but which needs modern purpose-built accommodation to deliver it from. This is not something that's unique to Great Britain or Ireland. It's something that's happening in most Western healthcare economies. Interestingly, face-to-face consultations are back up to 70% of COVID levels if you can get an appointment with a GP, which shows how busy they are. What people forget as well is that a digital consultation also needs to be done in secure premises in the sense of confidential premises, and many of those are carried out from the doctor's consultation room.
The notion that medical centers are a thing of the past is wrong, and indeed, the demand for primary care has never been greater. We recently visited a senior health official in Ireland who confirmed that their Sláintecare program is a real must for Ireland. When we talk to senior officials in the NHS, they also confirm that primary care is one of their key areas of reducing, as we know, the incredible amount of throughput that is currently within hospitals. We have a firm grip on costs. We do actually have the lowest EPRA cost ratio within the sector. It doesn't mean it can't go lower.
We are experiencing the stronger rental growth that I mentioned at the beginning, we've already carried out nearly all of the refinancings that we need to do over the next two to three years. We're in a really good, robust shape to survive the slightly choppy waters that we've seen. PHP sails on as a beacon of stability, delivering this growth in income for shareholders. It's interesting to note that the yield on our shares today or yesterday was around about 6.2%, representing a very attractive investment opportunity, dare I say. The next slide shows that growth in the dividends, which we're very proud of. I think we're a dividend aristocrat, as the phrase goes. This is certainly uppermost in our minds.
This rental growth and asset management that we will tell you more about is really coming through and will deliver this growth in the underlying income. In terms of relative performance, we're happy. I'm sure we'll drill down into this during questions and during our presentation, our December valuation is pretty much bang in line with our principal competitors. Of course, because of that negative mark to market at December, the total property return for 2022 was down at 2.8%. If you look at our track record, you can see that it's a pretty good one in terms of relative performance.
Of course, unlike large other parts of the property market, I hardly need to tell people in the room this, because of our 100% occupancy, because of the long duration of our leases, and because of the high quality nature of our income, we've outperformed many other sectors who reacted quite negatively to the ructions from the third and fourth quarter. It's also true to say that the market generally didn't compress as much, so the ability of it to fall back a bit has been rather muted compared to other sectors. We think that's all well and good and strong. I'm gonna hand over to excuse me, to Richard, who's gonna take us further forward through the numbers in a bit more detail.
Good morning, everybody. There's the key thing to note about our earnings for 2022 is that we, as Harry's already mentioned, saw some good strong organic rental growth and our sort of ongoing control on costs and interest costs has held us in good stead. Let's drill down into some of the numbers in a bit more detail. Looking at the key financial highlights. Net rental income was up just under GBP 5 million to GBP 141.5 million. Now, around GBP 3 million of that increase came from rental growth, but the impact of acquisitions and developments, net of the disposals that we did last year accounted for the balance.
Admin costs were down just under GBP 1 million, which also helped with that adjusted earnings and interest cost savings, although net debt was up slightly, GBP 62 million of the year, interest costs only went up by GBP 200,000, which accounted for a large part of that increase, GBP 5.5 million increase to just under GBP 89 million, a 6.6% increase, leading to an adjusted earnings per share 6.6p, which fully covered the dividend paid, six and a half pence per share. That left a dividend cover at 102%. As you already know, dividends were up in the year to 6.5p, of just under a 5% increase.
Like for like rental growth, GBP 3.3 million, which was a record year for us, 2.4%. Dave will go into that in a bit more detail further on in the presentation. Overall, the revaluation deficit, net of a small profit on the sales we saw in the year, was just under GBP 62 million. Most of that deficit was driven by an 18 basis points widening of the net initial yield, which accounted for around a GBP 134 million deficit. Encouragingly, rental growth, we saw a surplus of GBP 70 million, which is key for the future growth of the portfolio's valuation. The investment property portfolio didn't really change in terms of size.
It's actually GBP 2.8 billion, exactly the same as last year. Overall, there's a revaluation deficit of 2.4% after accounting for capital expenditure in the year. Adjusted net tangible assets down 4.1p. Most of that was due to the revaluation deficit, 4.6p per share, and that stood at 112.6p at December, down 3.5%. Loan-to-value ratio, we'll come and talk about this a bit more in a second. In the middle of our target range at just over 45%, an increase of 220 basis points over the year, reflecting the acquisitions in the year, plus the fall in values.
WALT continues to be very strong, 11 years, so that decreased by just over half a year despite a full year passing by, as Harry's already mentioned, full occupancy, and EPRA cost ratio, the lowest in the sector, just below 10%. Average cost of debt increased slightly reflecting increase in interest rates, at 3.2%, and I'll come and talk about that a bit later. Just looking at the income statement in a bit more detail. As we already mentioned, net rental income up was driven predominantly by the additional income from rental growth, GBP 3 million, and the impact of acquisitions, development, and disposals. Administrative expenses. We saw a reduction in performance-related pay, which resulted in a savings of around GBP 2 million.
That was offset by additional staff costs and office accommodation costs of just over GBP 1.1 million. Overall, a saving of just under GBP 1 million in the year. Net finance costs down to... Sorry, up GBP 200,000. That was driven basically by additional debt, which cost added GBP 1.8 million to the interest cost line, but savings of GBP 1.6 million from the various refinancings we carried out in previous years, which helped reduce that. Adjusted earnings per share, GBP 88.7 million, up GBP 5.5 million, an increase of 6.6p.
We've already touched on the revaluation deficit at GBP 61.5 million, resulted in adjusted profit, excluding exceptional adjustments of GBP 27.2 million, down 86% on the previous year, obviously reflecting the revaluation deficit we saw in the period. The increase in interest rates, we saw in the second quarter of the year resulted in a very large gain on the fair value of our derivatives and our convertible bonds just under GBP 27 million. We have an old legacy accounting adjustment relating to the MedicX acquisition back in 2019 of just under GBP 3 million. Profit as reported under IFRS, GBP 56.9 million. On an earnings per share basis, GBP 0.042. Looking at the balance sheet in a bit more detail, in particular, I'll come and talk about the revaluation deficit.
Adjusted earnings were pretty much paid out as a dividend, so no real change or impact on the net asset value. The revaluation deficit was equivalent to 4.6 P per share, as we mentioned. 18 basis points of yield expansion, equivalent to 10 pence per share or GBP 134 million offset by the rental growth, GBP 70 million or 5.2p per share, and a GBP 3 million profit on the sales 0.2p . Other adjustments, these relate primarily to FX adjustments on our Irish portfolio. That resulted in an end net tangible asset of 112.6p . When we look forward, every 10 basis points change in net initial yields should result in a revaluation movement of just under GBP 60 million or 4.3p per share.
That impacts the loan-to-value ratio by 90 basis points for future reference. Net initial yield, 4.82%, that's pretty much bang in line with the numbers Assura reported in January. We saw some strong like-for-like rental growth from our values at 2.2%, up 30 basis points on the same time last year. Just turning to the liability side of the balance sheet. Total debt facilities just over GBP 1.6 billion. 9% of that is unsecured in the form of the convertible bond, 91% secured. Net debt drawn, GBP 1.26 billion. After capital commitments and the acquisition of Axis, which happened in January, we have GBP 326 million of undrawn firepower in our back pocket to deal with future pipeline and any contingencies.
94% of debt is fixed or capped out for a long average period of just over 7 years. As I've already mentioned, LTV 45.1% in the middle of our target range. If we strip out the convertible bond, I appreciate it's out of the money at the moment, but that would go down to just below 40% on a look-through basis. Looking forward, if SONIA rates continue to increase, every further 50 basis points increase in rates will only impact the average cost of debt by 4 basis points. In terms of cover for loan-to-value covenants, the portfolio would have to fall by GBP 1.2 billion or just over 40% for us to hit the various covenants across our various facilities.
The second half of last year, we were very busy refinancing all of our shorter-dated revolving credit facilities, and we've dealt with all the refinancings in 2023 and 2024. We do have a fair few of maturities in 2025, but the majority of that, GBP 350 million, relates to those revolvers which were refinanced, and they can all be extended at the first and second anniversaries of those facilities. GBP 350 million or around half of that maturity profile in 2025. We'll be looking at those maturities. May one being the convertible bond, GBP 150 million that matures in July 2025. We do have enough firepower in our existing loan facilities to repay that if required. Just looking at the various refinancings we did last year.
We've already reported at the start of 2022, we raised EUR 75 million at a sort of record low rate, 1.64%, fixed for 12 years. Those rates seem sort of unbelievable today, that money is there in our back pocket, and there to finance our future expansion in Ireland, and we still have around EUR 30 million of that cash left to invest into Ireland. We've also refinanced all of our revolvers. Santander, GBP 50 million. Lloyds, that was increased from GBP 50 million to GBP 100 million. Barclays, HSBC, and RBS, all GBP 100 million each. Overall, GBP 560 million of debt facilities renewed for a further three years, we didn't see any increase in credit margins as part of that process.
All of our key sort of debt metrics, cost of debt, interest cover ratio, those will sort of continue to improve. Loan-to-value ratio in the middle of our target range. Debt maturity, a long maturity of just over seven years. Just turning to our approach on ESG. Most of this you would have seen from last year. Just to reiterate our sort of ESG ambition, which is to transition all of our operational development and asset management activities to net zero by 2030. I'm pleased to report all of our operational activities are already net zero, and we've achieved this by buying some offsets in 2022, but also having a good look at where our carbon emissions are coming from. We've already started development of our first net zero carbon development in Croft, West Sussex.
David's got a slide on that, which we'll talk about. We're already starting our first couple of pilot projects in terms of asset management schemes to get them down to net zero, and we'll be reporting on that later in 2023. Lastly, I suppose the last thing to note really is that we are strong stewards of underinvested key social infrastructure assets. We've got a very active asset management pipeline, and part of that project is really to improve the ESG credentials of all of our portfolio. Perhaps the last thing to note is that we estimate the cost of getting all of our EPCs up to B is going to be around GBP 35 million-GBP 40 million across the whole portfolio. Obviously, that will happen through the asset management program. It'll be spread over a number of years.
At that point, I'm gonna hand over to David, who's gonna talk us through the property portfolio.
Thank you, Richard. Good morning, everyone. I think I'll probably just start with a headline here. I think it's important to note that we will be maintaining our disciplined approach to investment. As you can see, some of you will recognize this slide, the pipeline of investments has been reduced, principally while we take a bit of a pause in the U.K. while we wait to see how things settle down. Please do note that both in Ireland and with our U.K. development program, we'll be continuing to selectively look at projects whereby they will be accretive to earnings. That's the key watch word there, I think, for this slide. Moving on, in view of that key point there, accretion to earnings, we think that the Irish opportunity remains a fertile ground for us.
You can see the two slides on the right side of the page, albeit they demonstrate that returns have been squeezed, they also demonstrate that Irish acquisitions remain accretive to earnings, and fundamentally that is key. Yields in Ireland remain higher, Euribor rates there remain lower, and in all that makes for an attractive opportunity in our opinion. Changing. Moving on. In view of that attractive asset class in Ireland and the ability to generate accretions to earnings, you'll all be aware that we have made the acquisition of Axis, the management company, which will not only deliver additional income into the business, approximately GBP 1 million per annum, but also it will provide our ability to service that growing portfolio on the ground, providing efficiencies.
Also, it's important to note that we have a five-year development pipeline agreement with a different part of the Axis business that we didn't buy. We haven't taken on development risk, we have secured key development pipeline, which we're already working on. Touching on development in the U.K. We are continuing to generate, procure a high quality development pipeline, which I think gives us very good optionality for the future. That said, like with all developments at the moment, we are working to reassess, rework, re-engineer the rental tone in order to make sure that the schemes are accretive to earnings or viable. With that in mind, I'm fairly certain that that will also generate continued rental growth across the rest of the portfolio or affirming rental tone.
This is a slide that with different assets, I'm always very proud to be able to show off. It really goes to the hub of what I think is very positive about PHP or one of the many positive attributes of PHP. I think last year we used a scheme in Spilsby. I think the year before that, perhaps in Eastbourne. I think every year we'll show a slide similar to this, but with a different asset. Fundamentally, you've got three, what look like cottages demonstrating, not purpose-built, not fit for purpose, small facilities which can't provide the myriad of additional services that are being brought out of secondary care and into primary care. Also represent the consolidation opportunity that I think PHP can continue to benefit for looking forward.
Here is a scheme that we're actually on site with on the South Coast in West Sussex, in a place called Croft. It's a scheme with a assumed capital value of about GBP 7 million. It should be completed this year, and it brings three practices into one. It generates far more services being provided for in the community. It allows us to build our first net zero carbon scheme here in the U.K. with BREEAM Excellent accreditation and an EPC of A. I think this really does go to the core of what we're doing for the primary care estate here in the U.K. Moving on. Investment activity. Obviously, Harry's touched on the fact that it really was a year of two very distinct halves. We did make some acquisitions during the course of 2022 in a disciplined manner.
They're all great assets. They're all fundamentally positive in terms of the attributes that they bring to the portfolio. We made those during the first half of last year. In total, that represented GBP 53 million worth of new acquisitions. Of course, we also took the opportunity in that strong market to sell of a number of assets, which reflected a GBP 2.9 million premium or 13% premium to the December 2021 book value. I think here on this slide, I think the key takeaway, which I think is probably pretty clear, most of you will have seen this slide before in prior presentations, that we have a very balanced portfolio with a attractive average lot size of about GBP 5.5 million.
The WALT is strong with 11 years, and I think we've got very little expiry risk, and I'll touch on that a bit further when we get to the asset management slide. Fundamentally, we've got a portfolio which is essentially 100% let. Essentially we collect 100% of the rental checks quarterly and 90% of the income is government backed. Moving on. Rent reviews, something that we keep coming back to because fundamentally it is so important in this period of inflation. It's nice to be able to report that we have generated record additional rental increase of about GBP 3 million during the course of last year, and it's also worth noting that approximately 30% of our rent reviews are either index-linked or fixed.
I think the reality is that the rents in our sector are strongly linked to the bill costs, and with those bill costs escalating in line with inflation, I've no doubt that we will be generating more rental growth and affirming rental tone going forward. Please note that with the structure of the rent reviews that take place in primary care, the rent reviews that we've been settling are some two or three years old, and therefore, as we move forward, the rent reviews we'll be settling will be much more current and therefore, in my view, likely to be more advantageous for rental growth. Moving on and coming back to the asset management point I touched on.
For me, again, the key takeaway here is that all these asset management projects, if you read the text in the terms of the description, are fueled by a requirement for more space. I think that's incredibly positive to see that the operational-led occupational demand isn't just looking to stay in our buildings, but it's looking to stay and expand. These refurbishments give us a great opportunity to improve on the environmental credentials of our buildings, often allowing us to upgrade the EPCs to higher levels. With that, I'll pass back to Harry to round things off.
Thanks very much. Looking forward to taking your questions in a moment. As per usual, the macro backdrop on the demand side is very strong for PHP. As we continue to emphasize, we have a growing population, an aging population, one with an ever higher instance of chronic disease. If you just take mental health, for example, as a massive demand for this in the community, I estimate some 15% of our total floor plate is actually used for community health, for mental health in the community. We are still faced with an aging population of medical centers which need renewing. Clearly, the NHS is under enormous pressure, it doesn't have a lot of its own capital to invest here.
This is a good way of government giving revenue support to enable that capital investment to come from the private sector. The digital threat that people were worried about during COVID has been seen off, and not so much seen off, but is now an integral part of how healthcare is delivered, but hasn't led to a reduction in the demand for space. Key point from our presentation is that rental growth is on the up. If people want new medical centers built, they will just simply have to pay more rent in order to do that, and that has very positive repercussions for rental reviews on the existing estate. That also goes for asset management opportunities. We've upped our target levels of rental income that we require from capital expenditure on asset management opportunities to reflect the higher cost environment.
Although we all don't like higher inflation, this has a kind of implied benefit for PHP in an odd way, in that the higher construction costs go, that is a good way to improve the replacement cost of the buildings, which will lead to higher rental growth in the future. We have very strong underlying cash flows. There's nothing wrong with the underlying business. We have got through many periods of turbulence in our history, I'm sure that we will come through this little pause in the U.K. with flying colors because I normally compare health secretaries a bit to the King Canutes of the world. You may be like King Canute and sit on the beach commanding the waves to go back, in fact, the tide is coming in.
This is something that people need to bear into account about healthcare. It outlives governments. It outlives Tory governments, Labour governments. It is something that is happening, and it happens across Western society. That is extremely good news for us. We've put a lot of time and effort into developing our position in Ireland, where we have over GBP 200 million worth of assets on the ground. Buying Axis, although it was a relatively small acquisition, is incredibly important because it gives us 20+ people based in Ireland who are there to represent us, not only managing our existing properties, but rooting out new opportunities for us. This development pipeline agreement for five years is very, very strong.
The outlook for 2023 is very steady. I've already spoken about our dividend aspirations for the current year and how that gilt-edged income is going to come through for our shareholders. The share price performance has been disappointing but understandable, and we're looking forward to rebuilding on this base and moving forward into 2023. That completes our presentation, and I'm now going to throw it open to people in the room to ask questions.
John, there's a microphone coming for you.
Yes. Morning. John Cahill from Stifel. Just wanted to ask about the development pipeline. Obviously, you've paused there for absolutely valid reasons. Is there an argument that you could, you maybe really should continue developing, even if the sort of numbers on any individual scheme don't look quite as attractive as they did on the basis you present that evidence for rental growth, which will feed through in the time-honored fashion? A second question for Richard, please. On slide 13, you mentioned about bringing the portfolio up to EPC-B, and the cost of GBP 15 million-GBP 20 million were economically viable. The GBP 35 million-GBP 40 million number, do you mean by that you will?
That's everything.
You will sell, preferably sell those assets.
No, no. That's across the whole portfolio. I think under the regulations that are coming, you only have to improve it to at least a B by 2030. They phrase it as economically viable. Obviously, across our portfolio, we're gonna have to address it.
Oh, right. Okay.
It's the higher number is probably the real number we need to address. The important thing to note is it will be done as part of an asset management project. It's not just-
That's clear. Yeah.
...a check that we'll do.
Thank you.
I'll let David handle the detail of your first question. In essence, yes, there is an argument for doing that. I suppose ultimately, if we can carry out a development with no development profit, that would probably still be worthwhile in terms of delivering assets. We have a golden opportunity to be going back to the NHS and asking for higher rents, because this is extremely important, not only across the developments, but also for the tone of rental growth in other older assets. David, maybe give some specific examples of that.
For sure. I think the focus for us is clearly not to develop buildings at a loss, and that isn't what we're setting out to do quite clearly. With that in mind, yes, we've got a pipeline, and we're looking to re-engineer the rents in that pipeline. As Harry says, it's a golden opportunity to go back to, let's call it the NHS. The reality is that the transition, which you may or may not know about, I'll keep it brief, from primary care networks to ICBs, is a further opportunity to really set out that if they want schemes to be procured, they have to be procured on a viable basis, and that's the approach that we'll be taking.
Thank you.
Of course, we don't really want a development for zero profit because we like to have, if nothing else, a 10%-15% margin to deal with the unforeseen, which normally happens with alarming regularity on developments. You need a bit of a buffer to justify the additional risk. You know, we've been to make representations at a very high level, as I indicated earlier, both in Ireland and in the U.K., to explain to people who, whose day-to-day job is healthcare, not economics or development finance, that it just doesn't work without you know, increases in rental. People don't go, "Yeah, that's fine." They sort of say, "We understand, and we... Let's see what we can do." These people need the modern primary care to be put in in both Ireland and the U.K.
I think there's two further things to add, which is that, although rents may be going up, it's cheaper fundamentally to see people in a primary care environment. If rents are going up, they're still a cost saving for the government. You know, we've taken the approach on rents at a blanket level. As Harry says, it will take time for our point of view to be seen, I suspect. However, I think that in view of the fact that they will want primary care, we will all need primary care facilities to be built, just like the one I've highlighted in the slides to you in Spilsby. I think the message will come across.
When primary care development starts to slow down, which I think it factually already has, when that message really comes through, then I think that some action will be taken.
Thanks.
Morning. It's Matt Saperia from Peel Hunt. A very quick follow-up firstly to John's question on rental growth. Historically, how long from effectively securing a new rent on a development would it be to see that number start feeding through into the reviews that you would then be reporting in terms of your like-for-like rental growth? My second question, thinking about the opportunity for growth in Ireland, I think you talked about growing the portfolio to 15% in Ireland. The acquisition of Axis and the pipeline of opportunity that that's given you, how significant is that in an Irish context? Is it a small element of the future supply, or is it a more meaningful number than that?
I think, I think we view the documentation of a formal right of first refusal, which is the pipeline agreement, in our favor for five years as incredibly important. Not that we wouldn't have had a very good chance of acquiring those assets in any event, but I think this documents it and makes it much firmer. I think that's very, very valid. People in the audience may know that KKR is on the verge of completing. They've announced they've completed it, but I think it's still to complete an acquisition of our nearest rival, which is called Valley Healthcare, which is managed by an operation called Glencar. That's all in the public domain. That's is a good indication that this is a valid market. We think they paid...
I think they paid well above what our valuation is of our Irish assets. That kind of bodes well for a stable outlook for Irish valuations. Our deal with Axis is very important in that connection because I think people ultimately want to deal with local people. However much we love Ireland, we're not Irish. They would prefer to deal with an Irish operation on the ground. So we're very pleased to have cemented our long-term relationship with James Buckley and his team at Axis for the future of PHP. On the other point, which David can wax lyrical about in a moment, it's almost immediate because you can use that as a valid comparator.
How quickly it comes through, it's not a direct linear relationship because the district value will say, "Well, that's for a new building," and the one you're dealing with the review of is not a brand-new building. We can use it as an indication to discount away from in order to get a higher rent comparator.
Yeah. I think that's. I think in terms of Ireland, I think James and Axis, or James Buckley of Axis, is a well-known developer in that space. Over the years since we've been in Ireland, since the end of 2016, we have acquired all Axis' schemes. That was five of our portfolio of 20. There are other developers in Ireland. We know them too. Some have a, you know, there are different qualities of developer, I suppose it's fair to say. We think James and Axis are excellent. certainly gives us an attractive right of first refusal. In rents, as Harry says, we can use the evidence immediately.
Remember that the rent review cycle in primary care is three-yearly, so not only can we use it immediately, but it'll be affecting, historic rent reviews or sort of future rent reviews that will come through, and we'll drip that new evidence into those reviews.
Rob Murphy, Edison. I just wanted to come back on the rental growth, specifically the open market. I'm just trying to. When you say an increased tone?
Mm.
Can you give some more color around that? When you're looking at the valuers, what they're using as comparisons and what you're seeing in those markets, do we give you some confidence on the growth going forward?
Sure. I think the average rent across our portfolio is something like GBP 190-GBP 200 a meter. New developments are being done at GBP 230, GBP 250, GBP 270, depending on location. That's a firmer tone, for sure. Sorry, what was the second part of the question?
Well, I'm just thinking about the.
Oh, values. Yes.
Cause the values are gonna look at-
Yeah, yeah.
... Other kinds of properties and...
Sorry. Yeah, yeah. Well, interestingly and unusually, at the moment, valuers seem to be taking sentiment into account more than simply transactional evidence. There is little transactional evidence in many property markets in property sectors at the moment. Their sentiment has been affected by the negativity of higher guilt rates. Maybe that will change later in 2023 when we get over the negativity and start to come out of that and turn more positive. I don't see that happening in the very short term. That's their, that's what the valuation profession is doing. Historically, changes have been slower to come through. This time, they've been pretty quick. I think other commentators would have said that about the property sector. Can see some people nodding.
You know, it's we rely on the external valuers to come up with their reasoned view. We have three, one in Ireland and two in the U.K., and they kind of think the same. That's quite encouraging.
Can I add to Harry's point? The valuers apply 2.2% ERV growth, which is sort of in line with the sort of improving trend in open, especially open market rental growth. Last year, we actually achieved 1.5%, which is an improvement on the 1.1% in 2021. The value is obviously, as we've already mentioned, those reviews related to 2018, 2020. The valuers are still looking forward and saying we're sort of seeing rental growth around 2.2% on the rents today.
That's still a long way below inflation, though, right?
That's an annualized increase. Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah. Obviously back in 2020 and beyond, the rate of inflation was much lower. The current inflation we're seeing now is gonna take a bit of time to come through. Obviously, we need to see the evidence come through from the settlements on the new developments and existing rent reviews for that to really sort of drive momentum.
Okay, great. Thanks.
Hi, this is Edoardo Gili from Green Street. My only question is, in terms of the valuation yield that would make you feel comfortable in acquiring stabilized properties currently, what would you say that yield is in the current market environment?
Well, that's the 64 million dollar question. If I knew the answer to that, I'd give you it. I think we're still waiting to see because there's so much uncertainty. Gilt rates came down. 10-year gilt rate went below 3%, but it's now gone up a little bit more. We'll have to wait, I guess, until Jeremy Hunt has come out with his budget, and we see which way the British economy is moving. I think that's the honest answer. When we see a bit more stability, then we can come back into the water and start again.
Meantime, we have a lot to do in Ireland and a lot to do on the asset management side, where we have, I think I can confidently say we will spend the most that we spent for a long time on improving our current assets, and that's an extremely strong return on capital. As David was saying, on all of those asset management opportunities, not only are they renewing leases and having refurbishments, they're taking more space. You can see that trend across our whole portfolio, more things being done in primary care. I'm quite fond of saying it's rather ridiculous that there are many medical centers when you cannot even have a blood test.
Maybe in 20 years' time, we'll be saying it's a bit strange that you can't have an X-ray or a scan in every single medical center because miniaturization, broadband technology makes all of these things much more feasible to do than in some enormously large, complex hospital. COVID, the reason we've got such a backlog is that people were told not to go to hospital. If you couldn't go to hospital, and it's the only place you could have your scan, doesn't bode well. The community diagnostic program is fabulous. The Irish are a bit ahead of us here in having much more hospital-style services being delivered out of these large medical centers.
Maybe we're seeing a return to what used to be called a cottage hospital, which went out of vogue in the sort of late 70s, early 80s and 90s. We'll have to wait and see. We want large hub, core medical centers like Eastbourne, which we showed you an example of last year, is a GBP 10 million building. The average lot size across our Irish portfolio is closer to EUR 20 million, something like that. That's the way of the future.
Perhaps another question from me on the Valley Healthcare deal.
Yeah.
If you had to compare it to your current in place Irish portfolio in terms of quality, you know, what would you say in terms of comparison of the quality of the two portfolios?
There's only really one answer I can say, but I truly believe it. Ours is better. Theirs is not bad, let's be fair. Theirs is not bad. You can see pictures of it all on their website, even though they've included one of our buildings on their website, the last time I looked, which is a great compliment.
Thank you.
Right. Are there any more in the room? We might have some online questions or webcast questions.
As a reminder, to ask a question over the phone, please signal by pressing star one.
Doesn't mean you can't ask a question in the room. Just want to give an opportunity to our online listeners and viewers. This is a hybrid meeting, not a hybrid consultation.
We have a question from the phone line from Kanad Mitra from Barclays. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I have three. As of today, what would make you commit to a new development or acquisition? The second one is, in the recent past, you have stated that you are pushing back on discussions with the NHS for new investments. What is the difference between NHS and your expectations in percentage or basis points if you want to quantify? Thirdly, I noticed that in your report, it's quoted that you expect prime assets which have experienced greater yield compression in last couple of years to show adjustment more towards gilt rate movements. I just wanted to check what you mean by the statement. We have always considered your assets to be prime primary care centers.
Are you saying that, you expect they will eventually experience movements similar to gilt? Thanks. That's all from my side.
Okay. Well, on question one, I think we would need to see a healthy margin between a healthy return on a development margin. At the moment, development margins are being squeezed, that would require rents to probably go up by 10%, 15% depending on the specification of the building. Question three, I think what we meant to say was that sort of we didn't buy too much that was ultra prime. By ultra prime, I mean, like brand new with a 25 or 30-year index linked lease. Those have been the assets that have had the biggest yield decompression compared to slightly older assets. There's nothing wrong with any of the buildings in our portfolio, Kanad. I can assure you of that.
It's where people paid really top dollar, in early 2022, mid 2022, and there were certain people really pouring money into the market. Fortunately or deliberately, we didn't buy too many of those. I'm sorry, I couldn't quite hear question two. Would you mind telling us, asking question two again?
Can I just say on the last point.
Yeah. Sorry.
We were also referencing the wider property market.
Yeah.
For example, if you took, distribution, which saw huge amounts of yield compression.
Hello?
2021, that sort of reversed in 2022, which was really.
Please repeat your question. Your line is open.
Yeah. On question two, I'm just asking about the difference between expectations, between NHS and your side, when you are having discussions. You said some of the deals are kind of falling through-
Kanad, do you mean the difference-
...you're trying to push back.
Do you mean the difference in rents that we're looking to achieve and those that?
Yeah.
Well, I think-
Yeah, yeah.
...touched on that. He was sort of saying perhaps 15%-20%. It does depend on the specification of the scheme, and of course, with ongoing requirements for enhanced specification to meet new environmental regulations and aspirations, it's obviously getting harder. That disparity doesn't look easy to bridge, and that's why we're quoting across the board higher rents.
There's a very interesting document on our website, which is the research that I mentioned by CBRE, which sets out all of the reasons for higher rental growth, supply chain issues, ESG agenda, the fact that rental growth has lagged behind for some time, higher interest rates.
It demonstrates that for people to do a development, there needs to be a proper margin to allow developers, of which we're one, a small one, to earn a commensurate return for taking the risk, because development is, by its nature, a risky activity. People kind of lost track of that maybe over the last five years. You know, if you start. I mean, our development risks are very easy compared to other ones. You know, we're not building the Shard here or Canary Wharf. We're starting with a pre-let, where, and we're not generally spending money on land without the pre-let in place at a satisfactory rate.
If the pre-let is at too low a rent and the costs go up, then we won't be doing the deal, and we'll be going back to the NHS or the Irish HSE and saying, "Look, folks, we'd love to do this deal, but you have to give us more top-line income to make it work." They kind of understand that, so it will come. Otherwise, there will be no new developments in Britain or Ireland.
Thank you. As there are no further questions in the phone queue, I'd like to pass it back to the room.
Great. Unless there's no other questions in the room, I think we have time.
Will we be allowed to go into your foyer and have a coffee? Right. Okay. I look forward to seeing you all there. Thanks very much for attending. It's the end of the broadcast. Thank you.