Good morning. Welcome to Phoenix Group Capital Markets Event 2022. I will now hand over to Andy Briggs, Group Chief Executive Officer, to introduce this session. Andy, over to you.
Thank you. Good morning, everybody, and welcome to Phoenix Group's 2022 Capital Markets Event. I have to say, post-COVID, I still get a buzz seeing a big group of familiar faces all together. Thanks very much indeed for joining us in person today. Phoenix is the U.K.'s largest long-term savings and retirement business, with 13 million customers and GBP 270 billion of assets under administration, which gives us scale businesses across the markets we play in. We offer a compelling equity story through the delivery of our clear financial framework that creates shareholder value. Starting with cash, we deliver high levels of predictable cash from our existing in-force business.
Not many companies can talk of an 8.5% dividend yield that is covered by today's in-force business for over 20 years, even if we don't do any new business or any further M&A. We're also uniquely resilient. In turbulent markets, investors often worry about insurers' balance sheets. With Phoenix, you don't need to worry. With our comprehensive hedging approach, ensuring that both our cash generation and capital position are highly resilient, a key differentiator compared to peers. That attractive, resilient dividend is now growing both organically and through M&A. How are we performing this year? I'm sure many of you will have seen the trading update we published this morning, which reaffirmed another year of strong delivery in 2022.
We remain on track to deliver at the top end of our cash generation target range of GBP 1.3 billion-GBP 1.4 billion for the year. Confirmed that we have remained as resilient as ever, with the impact of the recent change in economic conditions on our Solvency II capital position limited and broadly in line with our published sensitivities, as you would expect from Phoenix. Finally, growth, where I'm delighted to report another year of strong organic growth in 2022, delivering around GBP 1.2 billion of incremental new business long-term cash generation. With strong contributions from both our retirement solutions and pensions and savings businesses.
This growth was of course on top of the cash-funded acquisition of Sun Life of Canada UK that we announced back in August, which supports a 2.5% inorganic dividend increase, and is expected to complete in the next couple of months. We've long been known as the market leader in both running in-force business and in executing value-accretive M&A, both of which remain central to our strategy. We are leveraging the core capabilities underpin that market leadership to build market-leading organic growth businesses through Standard Life. I'm delighted to be presenting here today with Andy Curran, who is the CEO of our Standard Life business, Tom Ground, who is the Managing Director of our Retirement Solutions business, and Colin Williams, who's Managing Director of our Pensions and Savings business, each of whom will deep dive into our strategy for delivering sustainable organic growth.
Today's presentation is structured to deliver five key messages. Phoenix is a purpose-led business, and we are helping people secure a life of possibilities through our clear and differentiated strategy. We have significant growth opportunities available to us, both through meeting more of the evolving needs of our existing customers on their journey to and through retirement, and by acquiring new customers, both organically and through M&A. The scale of our in-force business provides Phoenix with three key competitive advantages, which are capital efficiency, customer access, and cost efficiency, all of which we can leverage to support our future growth. Since joining as CEO in 2020, we've been investing to build our capabilities to win in our chosen markets.
As a result, we are now confident of growing incremental new business long-term cash generation from GBP 1.2 billion we've reported in 2022 to around GBP 1.5 billion per annum by 2025, a 25% increase in just three years. This level of growth will support us in delivering a dividend that is not only resilient and sustainable, but will grow over time. Turning now to my strategic overview. The U.K. long-term savings and retirement market is huge, with an estimated GBP 3 trillion of stocks across the markets we operate in. It's growing strongly, with around GBP 150 billion-GBP 200 billion of annual flows that we can access. From a customer perspective, it should be even bigger, because the U.K. has a savings crisis.
Customers have a massive need for better support in planning for retirement, as the stats on this slide illustrate. Today, only around 10% of customers are taking advice on their journey to and through retirement, with 90% not getting the support they need, and most likely to turn to their existing provider. With only 14% of defined contribution savers on track for a retirement income that maintains their current standard of living, there is a clear need for more support and solutions. It's also clear that when people do retire, most are looking for income certainty, which as an insurance company, we're well placed to provide. This is a massive social need to help customers.
For me, I can't think of a better reason to get out of bed in the morning and come to work than to lead the organization that plays the leading role in solving this. At Phoenix, our core social purpose of helping people secure a life of possibilities drives all that we do. This means having the best people who are highly engaged in an inclusive and diverse environment, who are customer-obsessed and focused on delivering the outcomes that matter to customers while fulfilling our wider role in society and delivering better outcomes for all our stakeholders with sustainability embedded throughout. By doing this, we also deliver strongly for investors. Yes, it's a massive societal need. It's also a huge commercial opportunity. Our virtuous circle here. Our purpose is broad and ensures that we focus on helping more people on their journey to and through retirement.
I believe we're the only organization in our sector doing this at scale in the U.K. without the distraction of other business lines. This is all that we do. If delivering our purpose is all about helping customers journey to and through retirement, our starting point is customer needs. This chart illustrates lifecycle, showing the long-term savings and retirement products they will need as they accumulate wealth through the savings phase and transition through to securing an income in retirement. Phoenix is a leading market participant in many of these markets today, we do not currently support customers equally well across all stages of the savings lifecycle. You all know what it's like when you change financial provider. It can be a real pain.
Our existing customers often have to seek out other product providers to fill the gaps, particularly in retail savings, pension consolidation, and drawdown markets. When we offer good, strong, good value for money propositions, it'll be very easy as a decision for them to stay with us. These are the capabilities we've been investing in building and which Tom and Colin will talk to you about later. The key message here is that this market is unique because the growth comes from existing customers by meeting more of their evolving needs as they journey through their life cycle. With one in five U.K. adults as Phoenix customers, this is a huge growth opportunity for us. Our strategy drives growth by meeting more of the evolving needs of our existing customers, it is clear and simple.
We are the experts in optimizing a scale in-force business for cash and resilience, and we grow both organically and through M&A. Our in-force business is the GBP 270 billion of assets that we look after for our 13 million existing customers. It is highly cash generative and provides surplus cash that we can reinvest into growth. Organic growth comes from meeting more of our existing customers' needs as they save for, transition to, and secure an income in retirement. We will also acquire new customers who we can then help through their life cycles. We have attractive M&A growth opportunities too where we acquire new customers at scale and deliver better outcomes for them. In the process, we transform the acquired businesses to deliver significant cost and capital synergies.
What's particularly attractive about our business model is that the whole really is more than the sum of the parts. With our organic and M&A growth generating more in-force business that we then optimize, and with M&A giving us more in-force customers where we can then meet more of their evolving needs over time. Our scale in-force business provides us with three unique competitive advantages. The first is capital efficiency, where we get greater diversification from our breadth of in-force products. We're also highly resilient through our core capabilities in risk management and capital optimization. The hard evidence here is the significant reduction in our BPA strain that we've already delivered and will enhance further going forwards.
Secondly, we have an unrivaled level of customer access with around one in five U.K. adults being a Phoenix Group customer who give us deep customer insights and whom we retain through our excellent customer service. This is a key competitive advantage with, for example, over 90% of our new workplace long-term new business cash generation currently coming from our existing customers. Thirdly, we have a significant cost efficiency advantage enabled through our customer administration and IT partnership with TCS with our focus on delivering a simplified operating model. This cost efficiency is demonstrated in the cost per policy savings we're delivering across our recent acquisitions. With a 25% reduction in the cost per policy for the ReAssure business through the synergies we've delivered.
From an organic growth perspective, the 50% reduction in marginal cost per policy of the Standard Life workplace new business that's migrating to TCS. Now, ReAssure and Standard Life were already strong scale competitive businesses, but bringing them into the Phoenix Group has enabled us to run them much more cost efficiently. Our in-force business therefore gives us real competitive advantages that are very hard to replicate. Which means we are confident that we can and will win in our chosen markets. We have three strategic priorities which cover the investments and programs of work that will further enhance our competitive advantages and enable us to help people secure a life of possibilities. Optimizing our in-force business is the bedrock of what we do. This is about leveraging our scale to become ever more capital efficient and deliver higher returns.
We do this by delivering management actions through our actuarial expertise, risk management, and asset management capabilities. Here, we are committed to investing in a sustainable future. We also grow organically and through M&A as we engage our existing customers to enable us to meet more of their evolving needs and by acquiring new customers. Here, we will leverage our expertise in retirement solutions to deliver innovative retirement income solutions that customers need, continue to enhance our workplace proposition, and develop our retail channels. While M&A remains a core part of our strategy, we see a sizable market of opportunities over time. Underpinning both of these will continue to enhance our operating model and culture. This will maintain and enhance our cost efficiency by completing our plan migrations and through driving to a simplification to a single best way of doing things.
Which means, as well as a customer platform with TCS, we also move to a single set of modern finance and actuarial systems, a single internal model, a single legal entity, and so on. We're also committed to being a leading responsible business, which attracts and retains the best talent through a diverse and inclusive high-performance culture. As you can see, sustainability is embedded throughout this. Our priorities are to address climate change and support nature and biodiversity, as well as promoting final financial wellness and the role of good work and skills. Delivering our strategic priorities will help us deliver our financial framework of cash, resilience, and growth. Phoenix delivering high levels of resilient cash while growing both organically and through M&A.
Our key growth metric is incremental new business long-term cash generation. We need to generate over GBP 800 million per annum to offset the natural run-off of our in-force business. I'm absolutely delighted with the progress we are making as a business. For two consecutive years now, we've delivered GBP 1.2 billion per annum. Not just offsetting this run-off, but delivering material growth. This track record is evidence of the strong progress we have made in building our capabilities. It means we are now confident of growing incremental new business long-term cash generation to GBP 1.5 billion per annum by 2025. Today, we are setting Phoenix's first organic growth target, an impressive 25% increase on our strong 2022 performance. Which I believe emphasizes the evolution of Phoenix from being a run-off consolidation business to a growing sustainable business.
To be clear, we're not signaling a change in strategy here today. We have market-leading capabilities in optimizing our in-force business and M&A, and they both remain central to our strategy. What we are saying is we can leverage those same capabilities in building a market-leading organic growth business too. With that, I'll now hand you over to Andy Curran, who will cover our organic growth strategy in more detail. Andy?
Thanks, Andy, and good morning, everyone. I'm absolutely delighted to be here in person today, as last time we did this was back in 2020, and I was still locked down in Scotland. Although that day, I didn't have a very sore throat. If I run out of things to say, it's because my throat has gone, not because I have nothing to say. I am extremely pleased to be here today. This morning, I'd like you to take away the following key messages. How our growth opportunities align to the largest stocks and flows in the long-term savings and retirement market. How we will combine Phoenix Group's competitive advantages with Standard Life's strengths to grow organically.
I will explain the significant progress we have made in building our retirement solutions and pensions and savings businesses, our clear strategy for the future. All of which underpins our confidence that we will grow incremental new business long-term cash generation to around GBP 1.5 billion per annum by 2025. Before all of that, I'm going to start today by setting out how the organic growth business is organized. Our savings and retirement division comprises of four complementary businesses. They support us in meeting a wide range of our customers' needs and underpin our organic growth strategy. Let me take each of those in turn. Firstly, retirement solutions. This includes defined benefit solutions, retirement income, and mortgage solutions, all of which Tom will cover in detail shortly.
Secondly, we have pensions and savings, which includes our workplace and retail channels, and Colin will explain our strategy in these markets later. These are our two largest organic growth businesses. Both of which operate under the Standard Life brand and will be the focus of our presentation today. In addition, we also have Standard Life International, our European business, where we will continue to focus on improving our cost and capital efficiency and enhancing the customer proposition. Finally, SunLife, a direct-to-consumer business which offers life insurance and funeral plans to the over 50s market. They both remain important parts of our longer term growth strategy. Now I'd like to cover the market dynamics. The U.K.'s long-term savings and retirement market is very large, complex, and continues to grow. Andy talked a moment ago about the customer life cycle.
The need for people to think about savings through their working lives has never been greater. The need for people to think about their retirement income needs has never been greater. This slide shows how our growth opportunities align with the largest stocks and flows of assets in both long-term savings and retirement markets. With legislative and regulatory changes, such as Consumer Duty and Pensions Dashboard supportive of our future ambitions. Focusing on the savings side, since the introduction of auto-enrolment in 2012, defined contribution workplace pensions are now the single largest long-term savings product in the U.K. A market which has an estimated GBP 500 billion of assets and annual flows of around GBP 40 billion-GBP 50 billion per annum. Outside the workplace, there's an extremely large market for individual savings and income products.
We refer to this as the retail market, which spans retail savings, pension consolidation, and income drawdown. We estimate the retail market totals around GBP 1 trillion of assets today and has around annual flows of between GBP 80 billion and GBP 100 billion. We currently operate across all of these markets and are already a scale player with GBP 82 billion of assets under administration and around three million customers. Turning to the retirement section of the slide. The equity release market continues to grow as individuals look to access their property wealth in retirement with estimated annual flows of between GBP 3 billion and GBP 6 billion. Finally, we continue to see defined benefit pension scheme de-risking as a material opportunity. With GBP 1.4 trillion of defined benefit liabilities expected to generate annual flows of approximately GBP 30 billion to GBP 60 billion.
We have scale in this market too, with GBP 36 billion of assets under administration and around two million annuity customers. After 32 years in this industry, and I know that is hard to believe, this is the biggest market opportunity I've ever known. The need for savings and income solutions has never been greater. The markets are structurally growing, the opportunity for a focused scale player like us is clear. As I've just outlined, the markets are both large and growing, they are also competitive. We have a uniquely powerful opportunity as we bring together the competitive advantages of Phoenix Group with the strengths of Standard Life. This is genuinely differentiating. As Andy said earlier, being part of the group brings together 3 key competitive advantages: capital efficiency, customer access, and cost efficiency.
These are really powerful on their own. When you combine them with the Standard Life brand, we have the potential to be genuine leaders in our chosen markets. The Standard Life brand has a deep history and heritage and is well-known to both advisors and customers. Perhaps some of you will have seen our recent TV ads focusing on pension consolidation as we reestablish the brand in the retail market. I am pleased to say that the initial feedback from advisors and customers has been really positive. Without doubt, it's a brand people know and trust. There are also opportunities to develop innovative customer solutions using our combined strengths across the group. Finally, to customer platform and service. Standard Life has always had an excellent reputation for customer service, but the strength of our digital capabilities is definitely underestimated.
However, our investment in both these areas has seen us win a number of industry awards. When you bring all of that together, which we are doing, I am confident that we will be a formidable competitor in the market and can deliver on all of our growth ambitions. We can achieve all of this with modest investment as we build on the existing Phoenix Group infrastructure. Having outlined the market dynamics and our strengths, I thought it'd be worth taking a brief look at our progress so far. At Capital Markets Day two years ago, I outlined our ambition to firstly build a market-leading BPA franchise, quickly generating momentum in our new business long-term cash generation. I am pleased to say we have demonstrated another strong year of growth in 2022.
With GBP 4 billion of premiums announced today, with an improved capital strength and cash multiple, we are now an established player in the market. In our journey was to enhance our workplace proposition. Here, we started with a business in decline. We set about reinvigorating this business by investing in the proposition capabilities and infrastructure. We turbocharged it by acquiring the Standard Life brand. We know our success here will be measured in years, not months. Nonetheless, I am encouraged that in the past year we have crossed an inflection point, turning small scheme wins into winning some of the largest schemes in the corporate pensions market. We clearly have momentum. As planned, we are turning our attention to our retail channels. We have taken our time to understand our customers' needs.
Our knowledge has improved significantly as we have benefited from the investment in customer analytics and our marketing capabilities. For example, we have a much clearer understanding of advisor behavior and the attitudes of our direct customer base. We are now building a market-leading retail business using the same structured approach which we use to build our corporate channels. I am pleased with the progress we have made, which is evidenced by the growth we have delivered. If you look at the chart on the right-hand side, our progress has enabled us to deliver 35% CAGR and long-term cash generation since the end of 2019. This gives me great confidence that we can achieve the ambitious new target we are setting today. As ever, long-term success is dependent on continually evolving and innovating to meet our customers' needs.
I mentioned earlier that we now have a much better understanding of our customers. They have told us that they are increasingly looking to both protect their income in retirement and to maximize their risk-adjusted returns. This has only been heightened by the current economic environment. These needs can best be met by insurance-backed investment solutions, and the potential here is substantial. We are therefore investing to meet these evolving needs through innovative new tailored products using the balance sheet and risk management expertise of Retirement Solutions, combined with the distribution and investment strengths in Pensions and Savings. Phoenix today has a large in-force book that generates a very predictable stream of cash flows over time, which we estimate is around GBP 17 billion over its lifetime.
Importantly, this cash generation estimate is based on conservative assumptions, as it assumes that most of our customers retain their policy to maturity with no additional contributions made. We also assume an annual policy lapse rate, and that virtually all of our customers leave us at retirement. We therefore have a clear opportunity to grow our in-force cash generation, with growth from our existing customers coming from a number of sources. For example, the embedded growth within our workplace business, principally annual pay rises and new members to existing schemes, and by extending our customer relationships through product innovation and engagement. That's not to mention follow-on BPA transactions. On top of all of that, we can also acquire new customers across all of our organic growth businesses. To conclude, we operate in structurally growing markets, and over the past two years we have made significant progress.
Looking forward, we see substantial opportunities to grow further by leveraging the group's competitive advantages and combining them with the strengths of Standard Life. We will be building on the strong capabilities we already have. We will continue to innovate as we develop our retail capability. I am delighted that today we are setting our first-ever organic growth target of GBP 1.5 billion of incremental new business long-term cash generation by 2025. Which, as I like to remind Andy, is a 25% increase on our strong performance in 2022.
It is important to note that this target is net of acquisition costs. With around GBP 1 billion of this target expected to come from Retirement Solutions and around GBP 500 million from Pensions and Savings, which is presented here inclusive of Europe and Sun Life for simplicity. With that, I will now hand you over to Tom, who will cover his strategy for the Retirement Solutions business. Tom?
Thanks, Andy, good morning, everybody. For those who don't know me, my name is Tom Ground, and I run the Retirement Solutions business at Phoenix. I joined the group right at the start of 2021, prior to which I grew similar businesses for Aviva and Legal & General. Prior to this, I spent 10 years as a management consultant at Accenture. My objective this morning is to demonstrate that we operate across three large, growing, and attractive retirement markets. We have built the key capabilities that we need to win. This will support us to deliver sustainable new business long-term cash generation of around GBP 1 billion annually for the group while limiting the credit risk exposure we add to the balance sheet. We are focused on delivering mid-teen IRRs for our shareholders.
The retirement solutions business is focused on helping customers secure income certainty in retirement, and we participate in three retirement markets: defined benefit pensions, retirement income solutions, currently limited to individual annuities, and mortgage solutions, currently home equity release. We distribute these products through a combination of both the corporate and retail markets. These are huge and existing markets with substantial flows that offer us significant opportunities for growth. Turning to how these market trends fit across our three Standard Life brand of business units. Firstly, our defined benefit solutions business, which includes bulk purchase annuities or BPA, is focused on supporting corporates in de-risking their defined benefit pension scheme liabilities, and is currently the largest part of the retirement solutions business. This is a huge market with around GBP 1.4 trillion of outstanding liabilities, only 10% of which are currently insured.
Market volumes are expected to grow significantly over the coming years with one of the leading brokers in the market, LCP, expecting volumes of GBP 30 billion-GBP 60 billion next year, growing up to a potential GBP 90 billion by 2025. The recent rise in interest rates has helped improve the funding positions of many schemes, with scheme funding ratios now at around 88%, and the proportion that are now funded within easy reach of a buy-in or buy-out solution likely to be well over a third. Our retirement income solutions business, which is all about providing income certainty to individuals in retirement. The opportunity here is again big, as each year there are potential customers with around GBP 40 billion of assets coming into retirement.
Currently, 10% of this is going into individual annuities, which we think will grow as rising rates have meant customers now getting around 50% more income when converting their pension pot into an annuity. We've also seen searches on Google for annuities going from 50,000 a day to over 90,000 a day over the past few months as more customers are falling back in love with annuities. Finally, our mortgage solutions business unit seeks to enables individuals to access their property wealth in retirement through funding solutions such as lifetime mortgages. With around GBP 4 trillion of housing equity owned by the over 55s, we also see a growing customer need, with 44% of people now considering using property wealth to maintain their lifestyle in retirement.
Not only do mortgage solutions meet a clear customer need, they also offer an attractive asset class to back the growth of our annuity businesses. In summary, we have a complementary portfolio of businesses focused on helping customers secure their income in retirement. As Andy outlined earlier, the combination of Phoenix Group's competitive advantages, coupled with trading under the Standard Life brand, has been really powerful. Capital efficiency combined with the scale from our large customer base and cost efficiencies are the key to having a competitive product in the annuities markets. A genuinely diversified balance sheet also means that we are much better able to diversify the annuity product risk than a monoline player, which enables us to price competitively. Combining this with the Standard Life brand has amplified all of these advantages.
For BPA, switching to the trusted and well-known Standard Life brand was literally the light bulb moment, making it far easier for pension schemes to transact with us. Looking in more detail at each of the three businesses. Starting with our defined benefit solutions business. Phoenix entered the BPA market back in 2018 with a team of just 25. We have made significant progress since then and have built one of the leading franchises in the industry. This has been underpinned by the growth in our strong multidisciplinary team, which stands at around 250 today. Over that time, we have written nearly GBP 15 billion of BPA premiums, including GBP 4.8 billion in 2022, and generated around GBP 3 billion of incremental new business long-term cash generation. We've also delivered a material reduction in our capital strain.
The key initiatives that have driven our growth include the investments we have made into our infrastructure and systems, the implementation of our harmonized internal model, and the expansion of our illiquid asset origination capabilities. Our defined benefit solutions business is now firmly established as the leading player in the market, delivering around GBP 900 million of incremental new business long-term cash in 2022. Looking forwards. It is from this strong position that we feel confident that we will continue to be a market leader in supporting corporates to free themselves of their defined benefit pension schemes through our range of innovative de-risking solutions. To do that, we will focus on both delivering a market-leading customer proposition and on optimizing our capital to drive strong returns for our shareholders. In terms of our financials, we will maintain our disciplined approach to deploying capital into BPA.
We plan to continue investing around GBP 300 million per annum. We are also committed to further reducing our capital strain to 5% by 2025, from 6% today, which will support us in continuing to achieve mid-teen IRRs. To deliver this, we have a number of key focus areas. We will continue to leverage our strong proposition to grow. We will reduce our capital strain further to optimize our returns. We will utilize our best-in-class asset deployment, and we will actively manage our credit risk exposure. Taking each of those in turn. Key to our success in the market to date has been the investment we have made into developing leading propositions for the end customer.
It has been a massive advantage to enter the market later than others, because it has enabled us to cherry-pick the best from across the market in terms of approaches, infrastructure, partners, and people, and offer a genuinely leading digitally enabled customer service model that makes it much easier for them to manage their policies. It also integrates seamlessly with our workplace platform, enabling a customer to manage both their Standard Life DC and DB pensions on one portal or app. We have built strong deal and execution teams with modern tools and systems, which has enabled us to build strong relationships and be very responsive. We now quote on over 90% of transactions in the market. This approach has supported us to win two industry awards this year, where the judges viewed us as being the best BPA provider in the market.
We have also been positioning ourselves as a partner in de-risking journeys. We have seen this resonating really well in the market, with several blue chip schemes returning to us for second and third tranches of liabilities. Of the near GBP 15 billion of premiums we have written since 2018, around 35% has come from schemes that have undertaken multiple transactions with us. We expect this trend to increase, with around 80% of the remaining uninsured liabilities in the market concentrated in schemes of greater than GBP 1 billion of assets, which are likely to come to market in a series of smaller tranches, often with a single de-risking partner. We estimate that amongst the schemes we have already executed transaction with, there is a further GBP 12 billion of pensions to de-risk over time.
We are confident that our track record of building strong enduring relationships will mean that we are well-placed to continue benefiting from de-risking partnerships over time. As I said earlier, capital efficiency is critical to our success in the annuity market, and by reducing the capital strain, we optimize our returns. We have made significant progress over the last four years, reducing our capital strain by over 50% to around 6% this year. I'm confident that we will achieve a 5% capital strain on post capital management policy basis by 2025. This means that on a pre-capital management policy basis, which is more commonly quoted by our peers, we'll be around 3%, putting us amongst the most competitive in the BPA market. There are three levers that get us there. Capital model optimization, reinsurance, and asset deployment.
We have a very methodical capital model optimization approach, as demonstrated with the successful delivery of our harmonized internal model that achieved a material reduction in our capital strain last year. There is more we can do to optimize the model further, and we have a pipeline of improvements we look to implement going forward. The second big lever is reinsurance, where we seek to manage our exposure to longevity and credit risk and have enhanced our approach over the past few years. We continue to reinsure the majority of longevity risk on new business and now have a panel of 14 partners. This provides us with deep reinsurance capacity and enables us to source much more competitive pricing. We are also using other reinsurance solutions and have recently set up a Bermudan reinsurance entity, PhoenixRE, that will provide us with longer term reinsurance optionality.
Finally, the third lever is asset deployment. Let me expand on that a bit more. I believe that we have a clear asset deployment advantage. Our approach to asset management is to partner with the best third-party manager for each type of asset. We currently partner with over 20 leading asset managers globally. The Phoenix Group central asset management function has been set up to manage the governance and performance of our asset managers and set the overall strategic asset allocation. This model enables us to access the best assets at a low cost and deliver better risk-adjusted returns. It also ensures we do not suffer from any conflicts of interest with an in-house asset manager. This approach is unique and genuinely differentiates us.
As you can see on the right, our focus on investing into sustainable assets to back our annuity portfolio has had a significant impact. With GBP 3.4 billion of investments made in just four years across a range of sustainably focused areas. Going forwards, we will be able to put even more of our investments into sustainable assets, following the recently announced reform of the Solvency II matching adjustment eligibility criteria. I wanted to finish on defined benefit solutions by explaining how we manage our credit risk exposure. I know some in the market question the attractiveness of annuity business due to their concerns about the associated level of credit risk exposure. However, we actively manage our credit risk to ensure it does not become too large a concentration within our balance sheet.
Our total exposure to annuities is only around 13% of our diversified balance sheet today, which is very low by industry standards. We hold the credit assets backing our annuity liabilities to maturity, and so are not concerned by short-term credit spread movements or even downgrades. What we are focused on is default risk. We proactively manage our credit portfolio, seeking to reduce risk by both active monitoring and diversifying across sectors, geographies, and credit ratings. As I said earlier, we have a disciplined approach to the deployment of capital into BPA, where we're seeking to invest around GBP 300 million per annum. It is also important to understand that while we're acquiring around GBP 5 billion of BPA assets per annum, our net growth in credit risk exposure is much lower.
This is due to the natural runoff of our existing annuity book and the selective use of asset risk management solutions such as quota share reinsurance. The chart on the right-hand side shows for 2022, our net growth in credit risk exposure was only around GBP 1 billion, which in the scheme of our GBP 270 billion balance sheet is not material. By growing our annuity portfolio in a measured way, we will deliver sustainable long-term cash generation without materially changing the prudent credit risk profile we have today. Moving now to retirement income and mortgage solutions. As I said at the start, our retirement income business is all about providing income certainty to individuals in retirement, which in today's market means in individual annuities.
In terms of our current position in this market, we have the scale and deep expertise from our GBP 35 billion of in-force annuities. Given the number of our existing customers moving into retirement annually, we should really be the market leader here. However, we currently only see around 7% of our legacy Phoenix Life and Standard Life customers taking up annuities when their pension policies mature, most with a guaranteed annuity rate. We do not currently offer individual annuities to our ReAssure customers, and we do not have an external market product or distribution channel. Therefore, our ambition is to launch a broader range of individual retirement income solutions. This will help us to both retain more of our existing customers at retirement and attract new customers to the Group. In 2023, we will launch a more comprehensive range of open market annuity solutions.
This will include a full medically underwritten annuity and an inflation-linked annuity. Longer term, we will develop and launch a range of innovative retirement income solutions that offer increased flexibility to customers whilst aiming to provide security in retirement, where we plan to use a Standard Life branded distribution channel for all of these products. Finally, in mortgage solutions, we are seeking to enable individuals to access their property wealth in retirement. We are a leading player in this market with in excess of GBP 1 billion of lending in both 2021 and in 2022. We have built a really strong team and entered into a long-term strategic partnership with Key Group, who are the largest distributor of lifetime mortgages in the U.K. This partnership has enabled the launch of our first Standard Life Home Finance branded product range last year.
This product range is now available through more than 2,000 IFA firms with around 3,600 advisors registered to access the product. Over Q3 this year, it achieved an 11% market share. The speed of adoption is exceptional and a real proof point to the power of the Standard Life brand. Our ambition is to be a market leader in offering innovative mortgage solutions to support overall retirement journey planning. Looking forwards, our key focus areas include continuing to originate mortgages through our third-party funding agreement. We will also support our wider customer base to consider both pensions and housing wealth when they plan their retirement and continue to develop solutions to support them in retirement. Of course, mortgage solutions will continue to be a very attractive illiquid asset class that we can use to back our annuity portfolio.
Finally, we will continue to manage our risk through thorough prudent underwriting and the use of hedging solutions. We have a conservative risk appetite, as demonstrated by the average loan to value across our GBP 4 billion book being around 30% and a diverse regional split of lending. In summary, I am confident that our retirement solution strategy will deliver sustainable, incremental, new business long-term cash generation of around GBP 1 billion per annum by 2025 to support the group in delivering its GBP 1.5 billion per annum target. In defined benefit solutions business, we will reduce our BPA capital strain to 5% by 2025, maintain our disciplined investment of capital into BPA at around GBP 300 million per annum, and deliver mid-teen IRRs.
We will also launch an individual annuity proposition in the external markets while maintaining our conservative appetite for credit risk. Our mortgage solutions business will continue to originate attractive illiquid assets to back our growth. As I have outlined in my presentation, the scale of the opportunity for this business are huge, and we have everything we need to compete. I joined Phoenix because I believed it had a clear opportunity to build a leading retirement solutions business by leveraging the competitive advantage of Phoenix Group's and the strengths of Standard Life. I am delighted with the progress we have already made, and I'm excited about what we can do going forward as we support the group and its delivering its ambition of helping people secure a life of possibilities. With that, I will hand you over to Colin, who will talk you through the pensions and savings business.
Thank you, Tom. Good morning, everyone. For those of you who don't know me, my name's Colin Williams. I run the pensions and savings business at Phoenix. I joined the group last June, prior to which I ran the workplace savings and the advice businesses at Aviva. Before that, I've led pensions and savings businesses in both insurers and asset managers since 2002. In this section, what I'd like to demonstrate is that we're operating in a large, growing and attractive market across pensions and savings, that we have the key capabilities we need to compete and to win, that we're already making great progress with our clear and distinctive strategy. Finally, that pensions and savings will be a material contributor to the organic growth of the group through both net fund flows and incremental long-term cash generation.
Starting off with the market context. In total, across the pensions and savings landscape in which we operate, there are over GBP 120 billion of annual market flows. This presents a huge opportunity from which we can deliver sustainable organic growth. Whilst Tom's spoken about the key products he manufactures in the retirement market, in pensions and savings, the customers of solution is broadly the same, which obviously delivers significant benefits. My business is organized by the distribution channels to the customer. Those channels are workplace, retail direct and retail intermediated, which we've created to provide focus on the unique requirements of the customers in those channels. The markets in all of those channels are set to continue to grow into the future as people are living longer and they're retiring later.
Our pensions and savings business helps customers the journey to and through retirement and operates under the Standard Life brand, which is well-established and trusted in these markets. Our workplace business is focused, perhaps not surprisingly, on people that save through their workplace pension. Here we serve employees, their employers and the trustees with a full suite of retirement savings products, including traditional pension products and a master trust. This market's huge, around GBP 500 billion in size already and growing really fast with an expected 9% annual growth rate over the next few years. This growth is driven by the success of auto-enrolment and rising member contributions, with some four million net new customers having been added to the market in the last two years.
Whilst for now an established player in workplace, our retail channels are an area that we're developing, and we've got great foundations to build on. With a large existing customer base, common capabilities and infrastructure that we can leverage, coupled with that trusted and well-known Standard Life brand. In our retail direct business, we want to help the 90% of customers who do not have a financial advisor by providing guidance and investment solutions. As around a quarter of our existing customers are in that 45 to 50-year-old age bracket, and therefore more actively thinking about their retirement options, we see significant opportunities to participate in this market. Finally, our retail intermediated business serves the 10% of customers in the market who do have a financial advisor, representing around GBP 730 billion in assets.
Here, we're looking to support financial advisors to help their customers prepare for and live well in retirement. Whilst I'm talking to each of these trading channels separately today, we do see them as highly interconnected. For most people, the majority of their saving for the long term will be through their workplace pension. However, as people get older and they start to make decisions about their retirement, some will likely need to take advice, while others will need more direct support. We can leverage the common capabilities across all of these channels to better help customers in a cost-efficient way. Our pensions and savings businesses are really quite simple, We do have a straightforward way to succeed. Firstly, we'll grow our assets.
With around 30 million customers in the group, we have a clear opportunity to meet more of their needs to drive that growth. We'll also attract new customers through the Standard Life brand and our enhanced propositions. Secondly, we'll maximize our revenue. We already offer competitive pricing, but we can increase our revenue margin over time with new and innovative retirement income solutions developed in partnership with Tom's business. Thirdly, we'll leverage our cost efficiency. Our strategic partnership with TCS means that we can write new business at a low-cost inflation-protected rate, which will enable us to price more competitively and drive improved efficiency over time as more schemes are written at this new low rate. We'll also leverage the group's buying power in sourcing assets for our customers, all of which protect us against margin compression in the market.
By increasing our net flows, expanding our revenue margin and keeping our costs low, we're very confident that we'll deliver increased incremental new business long-term cash generation. Our success will be enabled by leveraging Phoenix Group's competitive advantages in a slightly different combination to Tom and using the strengths of the Standard Life. This combination will enable us to become a market leader. Having access to 30 million customers is of course a huge advantage for our business. When combined with our highly efficient business model, it'll enable us to deliver strong returns in what is by nature a low margin but capital light business. In addition, the group's balance sheet allows us to offer the full range of innovative insurance-backed solutions which aim to deliver better outcomes for our customers.
The elements that really differentiates us in the pensions and savings markets are cost efficiency, our customer platform and service, and our customer solutions. Let's look at these in more detail, starting with cost efficiency. Phoenix Group has a unique strategic partnership with TCS, who are a leading global IT service company. This partnership date back to 2005, when we were the founding customer of their Diligenta business here in the UK. Our operating model utilizes the TCS BaNCS platform, which is modern, scalable, and future-proofed. Diligenta manage our general customer operations, whilst PhoenixREtains the in-house customer proposition development and some of the specialist customer service operations. This operating model gives us access to the very best digital and customer service capabilities, but with a very low cost per policy that reflects our foundation customer status, and this is evergreen in nature.
Moving to this operating model has delivered a 50% reduction in our marginal administration cost per policy on our new workplace business. Looking next at our customer platform and service. As Andy Curran said, we've built an award-winning digital product, which provides customers with simple, convenient, and personalized access to the services and the information that they need. If they choose to, customers can self-serve digitally end-to-end without needing to phone up to speak to our team at all. We've also developed a fast and easy-to-use pension consolidation proposition, which we leverage across all of our channels. In addition, our workplace client analytics supports employers to better help their members prepare for retirement. The numbers speak for themselves. With our app seeing significant engagement from our customers, and with a 94% customer satisfaction score for our Standard Life digital journeys this year.
Our digital capability is important because it drives customer engagement. On average, we see GBP 2,500 of higher annual pension contributions from customers that do engage with us digitally. Finally, our leading customer solutions are underpinned by the high-quality investment solutions. Here we leverage our asset partnership model, which provides us with access to the best managers across the globe. Our model means that we can be fully independent and not encumbered by the conflicting aims of driving flows to a preferred internal asset manager or an exclusive external manager. This protects investment performance and helps us deliver better customer outcomes. We use our group's buying power to enable our customers to access a broad range of best-in-class, low-cost, and sustainable investment solutions that meet their specific needs whilst leveraging the sustainability capability that we've got across the group.
Our strategic partnership with Aberdeen is a perfect example of this model in action. We were able to develop and launch a highly successful, sustainable multi-asset fund to our workplace customers, which delivers cost reductions of between four and 14 basis points to them. With over 80% of the fund invested in sustainable components, we've already reduced the fund's carbon intensity by over 40%. We've made this fund the default for our master trust proposition, and have just completed the transition of 1.5 million existing workplace customers and their GBP 15 billion of assets across to this fund. This is obviously a key step in our journey to net zero. I'll now dig, dive deeper into our three customer channels, and I'll start with the workplace channel.
As mentioned earlier, we're playing in a large, growing, and structurally changing market. This is driven by fundamental customer, economic, and regulatory trends. Particularly important are the regulations driving the growth in the adoption of master trusts, which as you can see on the chart on the right, you know, is expected to grow from GBP 80 billion of assets today to around GBP 570 billion by 2031. As a leading master trust provider, we stand to benefit from this shift. A huge opportunity for us. Our workplace business is a compounding capital-light growth engine, with growth in flows predominantly generated by our existing clients. As Andy Curran mentioned earlier, our current GBP 17 billion of in-force cash generation principally assumes that the majority of our customers retain their policy to retirement and then leave us.
We also prudently assume that no increase in contributions or new joiners and no new scheme wins. However, obviously in workplace, these things happen year in, year out, with a steady and reliable level of growth through existing members' annual salary increases and voluntary rises in individual and company contributions. We also get around 250,000 new customers every year simply as a result of companies hiring new staff who then join their pension schemes. There are few businesses that can attract a quarter of a million new customers each year before we even start to trade. These points together mean that most of our workplace growth in flows and in long-term cash generation comes from the compounding effect of our existing schemes. There is, of course, further upside from winning new schemes in the market as this further compounds the growth effect.
All of this growth is reported as incremental new business long-term cash generation, with existing schemes accounting for over 90% of our growth in both assets and long-term cash generation. It really is a powerful business model, it demonstrates why retaining existing workplace schemes is critical to the success in this market. Workplace is also a very resilient business during an economic downturn, with pension contributions being deducted direct from salaries by employers, so flows are generally quite stable even through economic cycles. We inherited a workplace business back in 2018 that had once been a market leader. After a period of underfunding, it was in need of a reboot and some targeted investment. It was a business that was in decline, it was losing schemes.
Under Phoenix ownership, we've made huge progress in rebuilding our capabilities by improving the customer experience and investing in our people and our propositions. On top of this, we first acquired and then relaunched the trusted Standard Life brand. This has allowed us to both retain our existing schemes and beginning new ones in the market. As you can see on the slide, we've built real momentum over the last past couple of years in terms of new scheme wins, going from zero in 2019 to 68 so far this year. Initially, the market tested our capabilities, and at first, our scheme wins were at the smaller end.
I'm delighted to report that in 2022, we've won schemes of all sizes, which has enabled us to secure around GBP 2 billion worth of assets this year, which will transfer to us over the next 12-24 months. This not only places Standard Life back in the market but comfortably regains its position as a leading provider. The pipeline for 2023 is also very strong, with over GBP 5 billion worth of assets that we're actively competing for now. I'm very pleased with the progress of the workplace business is making, and it's not just me saying that. We're being publicly recognized for our progress with some great award wins over the last 18 months, down at the bottom of the slide.
Given the nature of the workplace business that I've described, the conversion from business momentum into improved financial performance has typically lagged. I'm delighted that in 2022, we've reached an inflection point, and the progress we've made is now being reflected in our significantly improving financials. As you can see, in 2022, we've stemmed our outflows by materially improving scheme retention and grown our gross inflows. This has supported growth in our net fund flows from around GBP 0.2 billion last year to around GBP 2 billion this year. This in turn has supported us in achieving a strong growth in incremental new business long-term cash generation with a 40% year-on-year increase to around GBP 200 million in 2022. We expect overall margins to grow over time as our revenue growth will outpace our largely fixed cost base.
Looking forward, we have a clear ambition and a strategy to derive greater net fund flows to become a top three workplace provider. Our strategy is clear. We're building a market-leading comprehensive and convenient workplace proposition while leveraging our scale, infrastructure, and customer reach. This will support in growing our net fund flows with an ambition for around GBP 5 billion of annual net flows into the workplace by 2025. We know where we need to focus our future efforts, which are aligned to the group's strategic priorities. We'll grow organically by investing in our distribution, providing innovative solutions, and assisting customers with enhanced guidance, and by building digital capabilities that will allow us to engage with our customers at the right time with personalized customer journeys. Finally, we'll enhance our operating model by completing the transition to a new scalable platform on TCS BaNCS.
Turning now to retail. As we saw in the market landscape slide, there's a huge market opportunity where we can access some of the GBP 80 billion-GBP 100 billion of annual flows across the retail markets. Within that, our primary opportunity is to retain our existing pension customers who currently leave us at retirement. This represents around GBP 7 billion-GBP 9 billion of annual outflows across the group. Of course, some of this represents our product working with customers taking their money in retirement, but there's a sizable opportunity to intercept regretted losses simply by engaging more effectively with our customers and providing the relevant support and the solutions as they journey into retirement. Once we've retained them, there's an additional opportunity to consolidate their other pension savings with us, as individuals typically accumulate on average nine pension pots over their working lives.
We can address these opportunities by building both a retail direct and a retail intermediated channel to target those two different customer segments. We're not building from scratch here. Our ability to build on the existing capabilities we already have in the group, coupled with access to around 13 million customers and the strong and trusted Standard Life brand, provides us with a major advantage. We don't see any need to buy an expensive platform to access distribution, which I'm sure is much to Rakesh's delight. Instead, we're extending what we already have, and we'll rent capability or partner to fill gaps, making our approach to winning in this market much more cost-efficient. Looking first at retail direct.
We've got some clear existing strengths in this market, our strong and trusted Standard Life brand, the access to 13 million customers, and a strong presence in the workplace market. We also have some gaps in our proposition that we need to address in order to compete. We have a clear strategy and ambition for building this business. We wanna offer affordable guidance retirement solutions to the middle market, we'll explore options for advice in this market. This will help us retain existing Phoenix customers transitioning to retirement and also attract new customers to the group. Our key focus here areas here are to enhance our direct marketing capability to better engage with customers and to build on our successful direct-to-consumer digital platform pilot for a broader launch.
We'll also be redesigning our guidance proposition and explore the options for advice where we'll work closely with the FCA as we develop our thinking. This area is essential to better support the 90% of customers who don't currently take advice. Last but not least, we'll reestablish the Standard Life brand as a strong retail market participant again. This work's already begun. You may have noticed that we're back in the market with adverts on the TV, on radio, online, and in the broadsheets. It's early days, but we're really seeing a very positive response to this activity. Finally, turning to retail intermediated. Here we're re-energizing our advisor presence with deep customer insight, efficiency through technology, and compelling customer and advisor propositions.
We have some clear existing strengths in this market, and again, the strong and trusted Standard Life brand, the long-standing relationships we have across the intermediary market, and comprehensive investment solutions developed through our asset management partnership model. Again, we've got some gaps in our proposition that we need to fill. Whilst the intermediated market is well served by providers and platforms, opportunities do exist to efficiently serve existing customers looking for accumulation, consolidation, and retirement income. We wanna offer state-of-the-art solutions for the journey 2 and 3 retirement for both advisors and their customers to support us in retaining and growing customer assets amongst those working with their advisors. We'll therefore continue to re-engage with advisors with a dedicated sales and marketing team and through offering deep customer insights.
By offering competitive platform technology, we can give access both to both our existing investment propositions as well as developing innovative retirement income solutions in partnership with Tom's business. In summary, I'm confident that our strategy will deliver sustainable incremental new business long-term cash generation of around GBP 500 million per annum by 2025 across pensions and savings, inclusive of Europe and Sun Life to support the group in delivering its GBP 1.5 billion per annum target. It's important to note that this target is net of expected acquisition costs.
We'll do this by growing our net fund flows across the business over the next three years with an ambition of GBP 5 billion of annual net flows into the workplace and GBP 2 billion across retail by 2025, with an ongoing focus on enhancing our revenue margin and leveraging our cost advantage to deliver strong returns for shareholders. As I outlined in my presentation, there's a huge structural market opportunity for us to go out here, both across the workplace market, where we've already re-established our business, and the retail market, where we're now fully developing the channels. I'm really excited about the opportunity we have to build a market-leading pensions and savings business, which generally puts customers at the heart of what we do.
We'll do this by fully re-establishing the Standard Life brand and the proposition in the marketplace and leveraging Phoenix Group's competitive advantages. With that, I'll hand you back to Andy Briggs, who'll finish with a summary. Thanks, Andy.
Thank you, Colin. Thank you, Tom. Thank you, Andy. Let me summarize before we move to Q&A. Phoenix has a clear and differentiated strategy aligned to our purpose of helping people secure a life of possibilities. Now I want to be crystal clear here. Optimizing our in-force business and M&A are both still critical central parts of our strategy. Of course they are. We're market leaders in both. Today is about how we're going to become market leaders in organic growth as well. As we've outlined today, much of the organic growth is embedded in our business because the majority of future growth comes from meeting more of the evolving needs of existing customers, of which we already have 13 million or around one in five U.K. adults, with a huge opportunity to attract new customers across all of our organic growth businesses as well.
The competitive advantages we get from our scale in-force business of capital efficiency, customer access, and cost efficiency are hard to replicate. It's these competitive advantages that enable us to create real shareholder value across each of our in-force business, organic growth, and M&A. As Tom and Colin explained, we've made significant progress over the past few years as we invested in building our capabilities to enable us to meet more of our customer needs. We have now more than proven the wedge over two consecutive years, with GBP 1.2 billion of new business long-term cash generation both this year and last. As we look forward, we expect more of our future growth to come from our existing customers. This means that the heritage and open distinction is much less relevant as we really now just focus on customers.
As a result, with a tear in our eye, and I'm sure in some of yours too, the wedge is being retired. Going forward, we are focused on sustainably growing our in-force cash generation through meeting the full range of needs of our existing in-force customers and by acquiring new customers while continuing to create value through the ongoing delivery of management actions as we optimize our in-force business and through executing value-accretive M&A. As you've heard, we are today setting our first organic growth target for GBP 1.5 billion of incremental new business long-term cash generation per annum by 2025. If you add to that a modest level of ongoing management actions and deduct our key ongoing uses, then we would expect to generate around GBP 500 million per annum of long-term free cash from 2025 onwards.
This long-term free cash will emerge over time in line with the duration of the business we've written and will be available to fund sustainable future dividend growth in line with our policy. As you know, Phoenix seeks to deliver dividend that is resilient and is sustainable over the very long term, currently 20+ years. The level of future dividend is, of course, a board decision that will be taken on an annual basis. I hope it is clear that when we achieve our GBP 1.5 billion growth target, we will be in a position to deliver very attractive organic dividend growth that is sustainable over time, with further growth when we execute M&A. Phoenix is unique in the insurance sector.
We are the only scale organization in the UK that is focused exclusively on helping people journey to and through retirement, we deliver cash, resilience and growth. We offer an attractive 8.5% dividend yield today that we can sustainably fund with the cash from our current in-force business over the very long term. While our business is highly resilient, owing to our strong capital position and our hedging, which protects both our capital and our long-term cash generation, particularly important in these volatile times, and a significant differentiator versus our peers. That attractive, resilient dividend is now growing both organically and through M&A. Just to finish on those five key messages again. We will deliver our purpose through our clear and differentiated strategy.
We have significant growth opportunities available to us, both through meeting more of the existing, the evolving needs of our existing customers across their life cycle, as well as by acquiring new customers organically and through M&A. Our scale in-force business provides us with three key competitive advantages: capital efficiency, customer access, and cost efficiency. We've invested into building our capabilities, so we are now confident of growing our incremental new business long-term cash generation to around GBP 1.5 billion per annum by 2025. A 25% increase on 2022. This will enable us to deliver a resilient dividend that is sustainable and grows over time. With that, we'll move to Q&A. We're gonna start with questions from the audience in the room.
If you can raise your hand if you have a question, and we'll then direct one of the roaming microphones to you. If you can start by introducing yourself and your institution. Then for anyone on the webcast, please use the Q&A facility, and we'll come to your questions after we've answered those in the room. Why don't we kick off. Larissa. We're gonna start in the back and come forward, run the other way around. Make a change, yeah.
Thank you. I feel like I won the lotto. It's Larissa van Deventer, from Barclays. I had four, now I have to choose.
You're only allowed three.
I know.
It's obligatory, three each.
One on retail, one on bulks and one on your strategic shareholders, please. On bulk annuities, you've reiterated again today that you wanna stick to GBP 300 million capital invested and that your new business strain should be at 5%. You also showed the slide that showed that LCP thinks the market can come to GBP 90 billion. Why not increase that if the market is so active at the moment? On retail, and growing the workplace book, how do you see the impact of the pending recession playing out in continued growth in the near term rather than long term? What is the role of your strategic partner, so that would be Aberdeen and then MS&AD, in growing this business? Should we think of them more as passive partners?
Sure. Okay. I'm gonna take the bulks and the Aberdeen question, and I'll get Colin to take the retail question. In terms of bulks, what we're really focused on here is we want to maintain and prize the resilience of our balance sheet above all else. What we think is a good balance of capital allocation. We have a rigorous capital allocation framework. The in-force business generates lots of excess cash. We only reinvest where we can get attractive returns. What we've done this year with around GBP 300 into BPA and then GBP 250 into the Sun Life of Canada UK deal feels a really good balance from our perspective.
We want to manage the overall level of credit risk, but as Tom's slides illustrated, we've only had about a GBP 1 billion increase this year, so we will selectively use reinsurance options as well. So view the 300 as the capital we're deploying. It isn't absolutely hard and fast. you know, we last year, for example, we did invest GBP 360 million 'cause the returns were attractive. I could see a scenario where if LCP's predictions, you know, come true and there's GBP 90 billion, the demand is gonna far outstrip the supply in the market. In that situation, the returns, you know, could become particularly attractive. Then, you know, we would have the flexibility to deploy more, but we would protect the resilience of the balance sheet overall, but very carefully.
Plan A is to go in planning to invest around GBP 300 million a year. In terms of the strategic shareholders, so a slightly different position for each. MS&AD have a very conscious strategy of looking to diversify their earnings away from Japanese general insurance by taking strategic stakes in overseas insurers, something they've done for a long time. They originally took that stake and put the money in, they've kind of roughly got with us at the moment, into the ReAssure business in partnership with Swiss Re. They were very keen and enthusiastic to roll that over into Phoenix, and they remain a committed long-term investor. It is part of their strategy.
From Aberdeen's perspective, Aberdeen took the stake as part of us buying the Standard Life business and as part of the strategic asset management partnership. Whatever happens, Aberdeen remain a core strategic asset management partner for us. I've seen the speculation in the market as you have that, you know, that they may seek to, you know, look generally at their strategic stakes. That's very much a decision for them. The way I characterize this is that where Aberdeen are good at something, then we would tend to give them the assets, but we're completely free to use other asset management partners where they're not good. The 10% stake gives them a board seat, and it gives them a strategic relationship agreement.
If they didn't have that, effectively, you know, we'd still be friends, we'd still work closely with them, but the benchmark would be to be the best. Yeah. That's very much their decision and, you know, we're kind of clear on how that partnership works from our perspective. Colin, do you wanna pick up on the retail side?
Okay. I've been around long enough to kind of see these businesses run through a couple of recessionary cycles. The workplace business, I think I stated on my slides that, you know, is reasonably resilient. That's where the vast majority of kind of retirement accumulation will go on 'cause of auto-enrolment. We are keeping a weather eye on that. We're not really seeing anybody materially impact it or stop paying into their pension or reducing their contributions as yet. In fact, some of the customer research that we've just completed says that people cut a lot of other things before they get to kind of impacting their long-term futures, which is sensible. The retail markets, there is a link.
You know, the re-retail markets, the three bits to that, people stay saving in retail for their pension. I think that that's gonna be exactly the same as workplace, you know, if you want to save for your long term. The discretionary wealth elements of the retail market, I think will be impacted in the first couple of years. There'll be less discretionary wealth. That's not really where we're going for. Our table stakes in the market are gonna be around retirement savings, as Andy said. You know, the two great big opportunities there are in consolidation and transitioning into retirement. Our workplace business will feed both of the retail businesses. Hopefully that answers the question.
Should we go along then? Alan next, yeah.
Cool, thanks . A few questions on retail. One of your largest competitors are buying wealth managers to try to capture the in-force running off. Given you've got the biggest in-force, is that something you would consider? Secondly, related to that, you kept mentioning the 90% of people that don't get advice. The FCA, you know, trying to get a simplified advice offering. Is that something you consider investing in as well? Would that kind of fit into your plans? Sir, you mentioned you don't have a DB offering, or a, sorry, a direct D2C offering or a platform. You know, there's plenty of platforms out in the market. You don't want to build one, but would you consider acquiring one? Thanks. On the individual side, that is.
Sure, yeah. Andy, why don't you take those? Andy chairs the ABI's long-term savings committee as well, so has quite a strong interaction with the regulators on advice and guidance. We've often talked about some of the acquisitions in the market. What.
We have. Thank you for the question, Alan. This has been an ongoing debate since Retail Distribution Review, where there's a bifurcation between commission and how the end consumer actually pays for advice. The challenge so far has been that most people have been pushed out of the advice world fundamentally because of cost. The cost of advice is just too expensive unless you have a lot of assets. To answer your question directly, we have no intention of purchasing a wealth manager. I wouldn't be going down that route. I don't think it's where it's going, 'cause actually, with...
I mentioned in my slides, with things such as the Pensions Dashboard coming along next year, with Consumer Duty coming along this year, and the FCA having a think about where does that advice and guidance boundary land, we think this is an interesting opportunity for us. When you think about Consumer Duty, in a nutshell, what the regulator is looking for us to do is engage in a much more proactive way than we maybe have done in the past, 'cause they are conscious of this advice and guidance gap. We think through working closely through things like the ABI, and indeed, directly with the FCA, we're working closely with the industry to just work out how do you address that engagement with the consumer.
The fundamental problem still applies, that people are not saving enough for their retirement, and they're going to live longer. Working out how do you help in that space is very important. In terms of individual platform approaches, you've seen many platforms, retail platforms being bought for what I would describe as eye-watering multiples over the past number of years. Again, we don't see the opportunity to go down that route. It's maybe an opportunity, but it's not a route we're going down. There are other ways to access that market. you can partner to access the market, and you can also engage through interesting and new product propositions, which is more towards the bias of what we're talking about.
Tom and Colin will work together, along with the broader team in thinking about how do we pull together interesting, innovative new products in that space, which will also sit on a variety of different platforms. To answer your two questions, no to wealth management and no to buying an individual platform business.
Does that cover it, Alan, yeah?
Yeah.
Yep, great. Do you wanna go on to Gordon, then?
Thanks. Gordon Aitken from RBC. three questions, please. First on, longevity reserve releases. Just the GBP 1.3-GBP 1.4 cash generation you've talked about for this year, is there a reserve release built into that, or would any reserve release be incremental to that? Second question on lifetime mortgages. I mean, I guess the regulator's concern has always been, of course, that at the point of death or moving into care, that the rolled-up loan exceeds the proceeds from the house sale. Maybe you can talk about what proportion of lifetime mortgages has the no nick sort of bitten historically, and what do you assume when you give out new lifetime mortgages? Maybe if you just talk about sort of relative to one in 1,000, 'cause that's a number that I've heard in terms of probabilities, in terms of the no nick biting. The final question is on to Tom.
You're probably uniquely positioned to say what the key difference is between the annuity businesses at Legal & General, Aviva, Phoenix are. I mean, Are they all the same, or have you know, learned things along the way and said, "Actually, I did that and I won't do it again"?
I'll take the first. I'll get Tom to take the second and the third, just to ReAssure you, he won't be giving one in 1,000 year sensitivity numbers out. He'll be commenting on Phoenix and our position in the market generally rather than specific competitors, yeah. He'll do that in a second. On longevity re-reserve release, there's no update from half year. We remain, we believe, very conservative, in terms of our longevity, but we don't expect a material reserve release this year and aren't planning that. That's not, you know, We're not, well, we're not expecting material reserve release.
We haven't assumed a material reserve release in the GBP 1.3 billion-GBP 1.4 billion cash generation target. We'll give a full update on all those matters at year-end. I've decided at year-end, actually, that Rakesh is gonna do all the work. He's having a day off today. I'll just do a very quick hello and then just hand him the lot so he can make up for his day off today. Tom, do you wanna pick up on the other two, yeah?
Yeah, sure. In terms of the LTM book, overall, we've got about GBP 4 billion worth of LTMs. The loan to value across the book is very low, so around 30%. The number of losses that we've experienced across the whole book is negligible. I mean, it, sort of low single digits, and so I don't know how that relates to 1 to 1,000 events, but I'm not going to go there. In terms of the comparison to the BPA practice, obviously, I've built out the business at L&G, and I also built it out at Aviva. I think certainly there's three things that you need to be really good at in terms of BPA there. The first is assets.
I think we've got a very interesting strategy, which is to be open source on the asset origination. That's allowed us to be very quick at deploying into getting literally the best assets from the best fund managers. Actually, in terms of cost, it's negligible. You don't get the overhang of sort of internal conflicts of interest with internal fund managers. That's the sort of asset perspective. The second sort of risk, key risk that you're taking on is longevity risk. There's probably two things you can do there. The first is you can reinsure the risk.
We've built out a panel of 14 reinsurers, pretty much everyone in the market, we've now got a umbrella contract with, which allows us to execute the reinsurance fantastically quickly. Clearly, having built out all of the tools and systems that you're building to support that quote process, having done it a couple times before, I now know exactly where to go. All of that process is fully automated and technically enabled with the sort of the best pricing systems that integrate automatically with your reinsurers. That gives you a really good, deep expertise on that. The third thing that you're really taking on is administration.
We sort of outlined that we've put in place a strategic relationship with Equiniti, that they have the, what I think is the leading platform, which is called Administrator, that services more DB pension schemes than anyone else. We think that we've managed to build the DB integration capability and link that really solidly with, you know, what we then need for an insurance business. We think that gives us a competitive edge.
Because it's all modern infrastructure, it allows us to integrate really carefully with Colin's world so that you can look at a DB and DC pot if you've got a Standard Life policy on the same system, which we think is quite cool, and we think it gives us a bit of a differentiator, certainly in terms of scale, but in, you know, in terms of the service levels that we can put in place. I don't think I mentioned the, any of the.
Perfect, Tom. Thank you. I know you guys will help fix the numbers out for us. We'll keep going on.
Thanks for the presentation. Three questions from me, two on BPA and one on dividend growth. For the capital strain by 2025, you noted 5% as the target. What do you assume is the level for competition in the market by that stage? We're hearing anecdotal evidence that many schemes are seeing fewer insurers taking part in pitches, given the number of requests that they're getting. Are you assuming the competition levels for BPA are the same in, by 2025, or are there something different? Just to follow up on longevity, we understand you use a large panel of reinsurers, but Tom also mentioned Bermuda reinsurance entity to enhance reinsurance options going forward. What's the thinking there? Are you expecting to retain more longevity risk in the future, maybe? Just the final one on dividend growth.
Clearly, you know, excellent levels of cash generation are expected, GBP 0.5 billion of long-term free cash from 2025. Given this is kind of a massive increase in the dividend capacity or big amount of dividend capacity, how will this translate to actual dividend growth? If you have a bit more color on that.
Sure. Okay. I'll take the third of those, and then Tom will take the first two. Our dividend policy is we pay a dividend that's sustainable and grows over time. What we've. The board forms a judgment on that. It's not formulaic. It's a judgment based on a range of factors. The most important consideration for us is that it is sustainable over time. We don't want to get ahead of ourselves. We want the dividend to be sustainable over time. Which is why I did the slide towards the end there, that basically had the walk to the, you know, the sort of the growth in long-term free cash of GBP 500 million a year.
If you sort of think the driver of that is basically the new business long-term cash generation. That's gonna merge over the lifetime of that business. That's the driver of that's what's gonna merge over time. That GBP 500 million was after we'd invested GBP 300 million of capital in BPA, and it's also the GBP 1.5 billion new business long-term cash generation is after both the acquisition costs and any capital we put into any of the other products. It's only BPA we're funding at a group level. Everything else is capital strain is embedded in there. Basically, it does mean that that GBP 500 million is available for dividend growth. Yeah. It's not, it's not a formula. We are focused on the dividend being sustainable 20+ years, and the...
It's a judgment the board form rather than a formula. Hopefully that gives you a sense. I think the key point I would make is we are confident in the strength of growth of our organic growth franchise, that we can hit that and will hit that GBP 1.5 billion target. That, you know, that clearly is gonna be very attractive in terms of consistent ongoing organic dividend growth. Tom, do you wanna pick up on the BPA side?
Yeah, for sure. In terms of the question, is the market gonna get more competitive? Our approach is that we have built the sort of pricing systems and processes that we quote on 90% plus of the market. The bit that we probably still aren't quoting on is the stuff that's sort of less than. We had it at about GBP 100 million, but I think we've probably got a little bit smaller as rates have gone down. There's probably, you know, 5% or 6% of the really small transactions that we're not quoting on. Not because we don't want to. We could if we wanted to, but we just choose not to.
Effectively, what we'll see in terms of competition is we'll if the price is hardened, I don't think that we'll not be submitting quotes for those opportunities. We'll seek to try and maximize the value that we're deploying the capital at. It could be that the margins improve slightly as a result of There are the volumes that we see in the the LTP you're talking about come through. In terms of the second question.
It was the longevity reinsurance and PhoenixRE in Bermuda.
Yeah. In terms of the longevity reinsurance. Effectively, we see lots of capacity for longevity reinsurance. We're still working through as to whether the changes in the matching adjustment will lead to be more economic to retain more longevity risks going forward. I think we've done lots of work to prepare us so that if we did want to retain longevity risk, we can. We've procured a whole series of data sources on the external market. Separately, we've married up all of our in-force two million annuities so that we have a fantastic ability to be able to analyze for longevity risk, which I think is pretty much unrivaled. I think the question is, you know, is up in the air.
In terms of what we're looking to do with PhoenixRE, we principally see it as an opportunity to consolidate all of our annuity books into a single place. There's advantages of commingling, and we think that's the sort of initial use case for it.
I guess I'd quickly add. Firstly, I've never met a finance director in any sector, service, administration, any sector anywhere that's pleased to have a big defined benefit scheme. In fact, the ones I talk to post the LDI crisis are even more keen to offload it. Interest rates being higher, as Tom said earlier, make it much more affordable. I think there is a case to say that the market does grow quite significantly. There's GBP 1.4 trillion of liabilities here. The barriers to entry to be a direct writer are high for the reasons Tom has outlined.
We do see quite a lot of third-party capital interested in coming into this space, and that's one of the options of PhoenixRE would give us the option to effectively originate more. You saw on one of Tom's slides earlier, the quota share reinsurance, which effectively is managing our level of credit risk. We're, you know, we're originating at particular terms, then the third-party capital that can't write directly will take a lower return on capital. You end up with origination fee in the process. Shall we go on to Farooq? Then I will come down the front in a minute, I promise. Yeah.
Thanks a lot. Two microphones. Farooq from J.P. Morgan. Three questions, please. Could you talk about the huge jump you've seen in wins in the corporate pensions workplace? I mean, is that just the Standard Life brand? What are the other levers that have contributed to that? How is that gonna translate into your success in retail annuities?
Question area number one. Question number two is if you again, when you look at that growth in long incremental new business cash, it's all coming from pensions and savings. Is that you getting to a sort of level of proposition? Or is that momentum that we could see beyond 2025? I guess lastly, sort of added to that, what is the kind of mix in that GBP 500 million? I mean, what are you thinking? Is it mainly workplace, or is that kind of? Is that the sort of retail side growing more? Thank you.
Sure. So look, Farooq, I'll touch on the third and make an observation on the first two, then pass it to Colin to fill in. Tom, you might wanna just add on the retail annuities as well. So the mix in the GBP 500, what we're saying is the GBP 300 we've said today for this year is roughly GBP 200 workplace from GBP 2 billion of positive net fund flows, and it's roughly GBP 100 million from everything else, mainly retail, but also the Europe and some life business as well, yeah?
We're not giving a split of the 500, but you can see if we're going from GBP 2 billion of net fund flows in workplace to GBP 5 billion, you know, if we've just won GBP 2 billion of new schemes when we haven't got the money yet, that's coming over the next 12-24 months, you can see that workplace is gonna be a strong driver of that. We're not setting heroic targets of what we might achieve on the retail side. Therefore, I think there's definitely potential to go, you know, beyond 2025 to go further still. Because, you know, back to one of the earlier questions, 90% of people don't take advice on that journey to and through retirement. The first place they turn is their existing providers, 'cause why wouldn't they?
I don't understand this pension stuff, help? What we have said historically is, we can help you find an IFA, yeah? What we're building the capability to do and have built the capability to do is actually engage with them and say, "We can help you with all that." You know, we, the Phoenix Group, own Standard Life, fantastic, wonderful digital, et cetera, et cetera, yeah? On the kind of first two, I guess the comment I would make, which the guys won't themselves, and then I'll leave them to give the rest of it, is. Makes my life easy, getting the very best people around me, and that's what we've basically done with the three gentlemen to my left and onwards.
We've gone in the market and hired the very best. Because of that sense of purpose around what we do, people want to join us. We have been able to pick the best of the talent in the market, we haven't had a challenge doing that. Ultimately, this is a relationship game, the advisors out there want to deal with people they trust. You don't go and win big workplace pension schemes unless that advisor really trusts you with their biggest, most important clients. They're just not gonna do it, and they trust people. That's what it comes down to. Colin, add a bit. You know, you're not gonna sing your own praises. I'll do that for you. Add a bit of color around what you think's been behind the workplace, the jump in workplace wins and the drivers of that.
Well, I obviously went out and hired another load of people who actually, you know, are properly doing the job. You know, it is a relationship business. It's a technical relationship-based business. It relies on trust in the marketplace, you know, and it relies on the market really thinking that, you know, we have conviction in this market and we're here to stay. These are long-term contracts. You know, they're intergenerational contracts almost. It's taken a while to kind of rebuild that trust. I think we're there now. We've built the proposition. Really pleased. We've got an award-winning master trust. It's really going from strength to strength. The investment proposition is one of the best out there in the marketplace, you know, and we're just reaping the benefits of that at the moment.
Ironically, over the next couple of years, one of the things, and it kind of touches on the kind of recessionary environment, but with greater wage inflation, most people will allow that to flow through into their pension contributions in the workplace. We're actually expecting to see an uptick over the next couple of years, especially, you know, as that kind of greater wage inflation runs through the pipe. In terms of how it feeds into Tom's business, obviously, you know, Tom's building that business. We have tens of thousands of customers who wanna buy an annuity at the end of their retirement accumulation journey. Tom?
Yes. In terms of retail annuities, we really ought to be the market leaders in. We have more customers coming into retirement than anyone else. At the moment, we don't have a open market offering. It's a pretty simple sort of win to create an open market offering. The market's not massive, though. Last year, it was about GBP 4 billion. We do expect it to grow a little bit as, you know, you're getting 50% more for an individual annuity. I think it, you know, it will be a interesting offering to launch and a good complement to our products. Also as the backdrop to then launch sort of more blended-type offerings where you're doing.
You know, you're providing certainty, but not necessarily all of the contractual guarantees that an annuity does. We think it's gonna be the backstop to then launch a more innovative range.
Yeah. May I?
Yeah.
Farooq, just to say, I wouldn't underestimate the impact of Consumer Duty coming through in all of this. This is a big legislative change. The responsibility for companies like ours to be on the front foot will significantly change over the next 24 months or so, and that gives us an opportunity to really engage on a retail basis across a myriad of customer needs. That's why it's important for all of us, the guys to my left, to make sure we work together because we do see a huge amount of opportunity there over the next three or four years.
I'm gonna come down to Charlie and we will come back to anyone over that side, I promise. Otherwise, these guys will might leave or fall asleep. Charlie, go for it.
Thank you. Charlie in KBW. You currently source assets primarily via an external network. Will you be looking to develop internal or alternative asset origination capabilities to back BPA liabilities? Secondly, more broadly, would you look to having an internal asset manager over time as a number of your competitors do? Or are you happy with the status quo of having or outsourcing your asset management with Aberdeen as your key partner? Finally, you point to medically underwritten individual annuities and lifetime mortgages, both being appealing growth areas. Might you look at achieving this inorganically through acquiring a certain competitor that specializes in these products? Sorry, a bit of a cheeky one.
Okay. I think they're all three for me, aren't they? Taking them in order. On asset management, when I arrived at Phoenix beginning of 2020, it seemed to me one of the biggest value drivers, both for our customers and our shareholders on the shareholder assets with annuities, was asset management. I really wanted to invest significantly in our capability in that space. We created Phoenix Asset Management. Michael Eakins's joined us, along with you and a number of others through the ReAssure transaction. What we basically got is a team there that are doing the, you know, really high caliber investment professionals that are doing the strategic asset allocation. They're thinking for each of our funds, we're profit funds, customer funds, shareholder funds, what's the right strategic asset allocation?
Whenever there's an asset class we're interested in, we then go and get expertise in that asset class, so we know exactly what we're doing in that asset class. We then look to partner with the best asset manager in each asset class in each geography. Where we're at in terms of illiquid assets today is that they're on non-discretionary basis. We're effectively already sourcing quite a lot of those illiquid assets. We're making that investment decision ourselves. We're just working in conjunction with a partner for the ongoing management of that. We are building the capability, and we expect to do direct illiquid asset origination ourselves in due course, probably towards the back end of next year in small scale, where we can do that and manage that ourselves. We're building those capabilities.
We're always very careful to manage the risk in anything we're doing and make sure we've got the capability to do so. What is possible is that we'll start to work on a more non-discretionary basis on the, you know, corporate bonds. Yeah. That's possible. We're already making strategic asset allocation calls. We made the call to put GBP 1.5 billion or so into North American credit early this year. That's a possible evolution. What I don't see us doing is ending up, you know, buying or creating a full-blown asset manager. So fixed income credit side, I could see us evolving to do more over time, particularly on the illiquid asset space.
We think that the world of asset management, in my view, is either scale players that are doing kind of passive or it's kind of boutiques with specialism. We think we'll serve far better for our customers and shareholders by partnering with the leading boutiques in different areas, broadly speaking. In terms of medical underwritten annuities, lifetime mortgages. Across all of the open business, we are confident we can achieve everything we want to organically from where we are. We're building the capability. We can bring the capability on board. We're confident we can do all of that. I wouldn't rule out small capability-based acquisitions, but they would only be small. I don't know which competitor you were alluding to, but I,
Aberdeen.
Yeah. I would say it's possible that we would look at small capability-based acquisitions. I think it's, you know. We don't plan to be buying platforms or larger open businesses, wealth managers and so on. We think we can get where we need to get to organically with what we have. Andrew.
Hello. It's Andrew Crean, Autonomous. A couple of questions. That slide where you had GBP half a billion of cash flow coming out from 2025 on, could you give us a sense of the decline in the heritage cash flows so that we can get to a sort of net basis? I think what we're all really trying to do is work out what your organic dividend growth is when you do GBP 1.5 billion of long-term cash generation. Secondly, you talk quite a lot about your 13 million customers, of which I'm one. There's not a lot of contact between you and I. I know there's rules around workplace where you're not allowed to actually attract their customers.
Could you just give us a general answer as to how many of those 13 million you actually have real relationships with and where the customer actually thinks that you are, you know, a key financial support to them?
Yeah. Thanks, Andrew. Look, I'll get Andy to pick up the second question, but I think Andy was very clear that we started off on BPA and then we've moved to workplace. Now we're moving to retail, so we're very clear. We're in the early stages of looking to do this. Today we're not. My wife is also has an old NPI ABC, and she's waiting for the call as well. On the cash generation side. What I'd probably do is refer you back to our capital markets day back in 2020, where we talked about the in-force cash and the rate at which that runs off.
We talked about, as we write new business, what the kind of broad cash profile of that is as well. The way I would summarize it is that GBP 0.5 billion of cash, of increase in long-term free cash is emerging over the duration of that business, but it's after what we've invested in BPA, it's after acquisition costs, and any capital on individual annuities as well. It is available for dividend, and we are looking to be confident that our dividend is sustainable into the long term, which we as we've said today, we consider to be 20+ years. That, you know, it's not a formula. It's a judgment formed by the board each year. Andy, do you wanna pick up on how we're thinking about approaching?
Sure.
Andrew for his retirement income?
Sure.
Oh, I've just lapsed, actually.
Just gets better and better. A couple of things. The reality across the whole group is different levels of knowledge about our customer base. One of the first things we did was recruit someone who would gather up all of our data to make sure we get all of our customer data from all of our various platforms. We've a data scientist capability within the business, which you would think, actually, well, that's an excellent step forward. In fact, if you don't have what the marketing folks call marcomms or a marketing communication capability on top of that, having the data is not enough. We have spent the last two years really getting the data in a good shape.
We now have the ability to do much of the marcomms, the marketing communications that go with that, so it'll be much more tailored. Alongside all of that, what we've also done is done a good deal of customer research, so we understand consumer behavior across the various books of business. With all of that done, you should look forward to hearing from us very soon. The serious point I hear-
Probably next week.
Definitely next week. The serious point in all of this, actually, the reality is we have an enormous amount of headroom. We have an enormous amount of headroom. Regulatory pressure will be on us to improve what we do and how we engage, which is good. The consumer need to engage is obviously there, and it's clear. From our perspective, having got that foundational work done over the past couple of years, and got that ability to engage with our customer base, and if we improve the quality of our user experience, so through products, digital engagement, and the like, we can see no reason why we wouldn't be extremely successful.
Can I just add a quick bit of color to that? On the side, Anna Troup runs our M&A corporate dev ops side, sends me out regularly for the cups of teas with the CEOs of people who own the other businesses, so I spend a lot of time doing that. I always make sure I spend an hour a week with the guys in the front line dealing with our customers in exactly this sort of area. I had a session with them recently where they've done a pilot in, basically. You said you've recently lapsed, but, you know, we've got GBP 7 billion-GBP 9 billion a year. That's very common. It's already built into our cash forecast, so anyone we persuade not to lapse is upside, yeah? We get that a lot.
What we've been doing is trying to use the customer data that Andy's been talking about to try and predict who are the customers likely to lapse in advance of them. We're getting about an 80% hit rate, I think, Colin, on that, yeah, in terms of predicting that. We're actually quite optimistic that as we work this through, we can get to people before they get to the point they wanna do something and approach them at the right time with the right offer. As I say, you know, only 10% take advice, but virtually none of them have that advisor when they get there. They just decide to go and find one at that point in time, yeah? The opportunity with one in five U.K. adults as our customers is to engage. Andy?
Thanks. Andrew Sinclair from Bank of America. Usual three. Firstly, it was just on workplace. Workplace schemes coming to market annually. Just wondered if you could put some numbers around it. I mean, broadly, how much is coming to market each year that's genuinely available for you to pitch for, in the workplace market and, in terms of new schemes, that is. What do you think your fair market share is kind of over the longer term? That's the first question. Secondly was on annuities. You talked about mid-teens IRRs. Just really wonder if you could tell us on what basis that IRR is calculated. Is that IFRS 4, IFRS 17, Solvency II? How should we think about those mid-teens IRRs?
Thirdly, just going back to the GBP 500 million of long-term cash left over on slide 57. Should we think about any of that being held back for M&A, or should we just be thinking about the GBP 500 million spread over 20-ish years, about GBP 25 million a year and compare that to your GBP 500 million divvy cost? Thanks.
Yep, sure. Okay. I'll take the second and third. I'll get Colin to take the first. He won't be giving you a market share specific prediction, just to be clear. On the annuities, what we're looking at there is a post capital management policy, Solvency II capital, basically, yeah. That is what relates directly to cash and capital and dividends, yeah. What we're saying is we've achieved mid-teens this year. We, our goal is to achieve mid-teens going forward. That's, you know, that's a real genuine what makes a difference to cash and capital and dividends post capital management policy, yeah.
In terms of the GBP 500 million in M&A, basically that GBP 500 million is being driven by new business long-term cash generation. Which, which by definition emerges over time over the lifetime of the business. That is what we would then think about in terms of organic dividend. You wanna look more to the management actions. In that only had own funds management actions. A lot of the management actions we do accelerate future cash forward. We've got a target of GBP 4 billion of cash generation. You know, that's the kind of cash coming out now from the Life goes up to the group level, a target of GBP 4 billion over the three years.
Clearly within that's gonna replenish our already quite significant M&A war chest, yeah. Almost kind of think about those two things separately. One is generation of long-term cash over time, which is how we would think about dividend. You know, you're not gonna save a bit of that each year to build up an M&A war chest. That's more about the management actions and outperformance on management actions, particularly accelerating capital and that GBP 4 billion target we've got in the shorter term. Colin.
Yeah.
Workplace schemes.
No market share. Okay, good. There's a couple of drivers for growth in the workplace market. Obviously, there's the sort of the underpin of kind of demographics. People are living, working, saving for longer, retiring later. They're saving into DC, not into DB, which is an opportunity for both Tom's business and mine. There's also the kind of structural shift that's going on. The lot of own rules trust business is moving into master trust at the moment as well. Just in terms of you know, normally, as I say, I've run the workplace business forever. You know, before this year, I'd never seen a pipeline greater than about GBP 2 billion in any provider that I've worked for.
It's standing at about GBP 5.5 Billion at the moment of opportunities, the opportunity pipeline that we're pitching for. It's sort of an order of magnitude larger. A lot of that's been driven by the growth in master trust. That's schemes moving around, you know, internal kind of own rules trust into master trust. There's also a really emergent market now in the secondary master trust market. I think people originally thought in our market, you'd kind of go to a master trust and you'd stick there forever. I think there's a big dash to go to master trust. Now people are shopping the market. The propositional quality is really, really important. I think we've got a great pensions proposition out there. Our master trust is particularly good. I'm hoping we'll win more than our fair share of the business that comes into the marketplace going forward.
Should we keep going along?
Thanks. Nasib Ahmed from UBS. First question related to the questions previously from the two Andrews. Your GBP 800 million long-term cash generation that you need to offset the in-force run-off, that was set in 2020, as you said, but you've grown the business since then, and you're kind of integrating some Life acquisition next year as well. Shouldn't that be a little bit higher in terms of what you need to run off the existing in-force since 2020? On slide eight, the customer journey. Are all of those open businesses Standard Life branded, and how does TCF customer sort of interaction fit into that? If I kind of have a policy, call up a TCS call center, will they recommend a Phoenix or Standard Life policy, for example, in annuity post-workplace?
How does that relationship work? Finally, question for Tom on the GBP 30 billion-GBP 60 billion that LCP are predicting for 2023. I think you get to the GBP 60 billion if there's a couple of big deals there. Would you kind of play in the GBP +10 billion market? Presumably you do some funded reinsurance there, and that means that your strain kind of halves, right? If you do GBP 10 billion, 50% funded reinsurance, that's an easy way of reducing your strain. Presumably that's not in your 5% target, right? That's not how you're getting there.
Okay. I'll just on terms of the potential for the last question, potential for BPA. I mean, I kind of wouldn't totally rule it out, but exactly as you say, we would need to put some reinsurance arrangements behind it to consider that. We're not assuming that in getting to the 5% target. We're more likely to play around, you know, sort of the few hundred million up to, you know, a couple of billion. We did two GBP 1.7 billion transactions last year. We've done a case this year over GBP 1 billion. I wouldn't completely rule it out, and that's part of why we're building PhoenixRE. As we talked earlier, we have the quota share reinsurance.
We're not assuming material amounts of that in getting to the 5%, and the extent that we get origination fees would be an upside opportunity. In terms of your first question, I'll get Colin to pick up the second one in a second. The first question, if you look at the walk on the slide, that's GBP 0.9 billion. Exactly as you say, we're growing and therefore, the walk on the slide that got to the GBP 500 million that you're talking about, the uses are on there as GBP 0.9 billion. Yeah. Exactly as you say, to reflect the growth we're delivering. Colin, do you want to pick up the second question around.
The branding point.
The branding and interaction? Yeah.
Yeah. Across that kind of customer life cycle, you know, it's predominantly Standard Life branding for the, for the open division. As we start to look at you supporting the kind of the broader in-force book, actually it's an active conversation at the moment, you know. Because actually it can go one of two ways. We can either brand out what we do in the heritage brands or, you know, we can let them jump the fence into the Standard Life brand. I'd also say that actually in terms of open products, the Sun Life brand is in there as well.
TCS interact with that.
TCS, they run our call centers. For them, it's just a matter of mapping. Literally, it's a live conversation. I was having it with TCS earlier on this week.
In reality, again, if you remember Colin's chart, that sort of front office, we had some that was in Phoenix Group and some was with TCS. Once we start getting into these deeper conversations about consolidating pots and helping people with guidance and so on, that would be our in-house teams that would do that. Yeah. We'll get a kind of feed through from TCS of where the opportunities are for us to then outbound to those customers. Andrew.
Hi. Thanks. Andrew Baker, Citi. three question, please. The first two are both on the new business target that you put in place today. The Retirement Solutions, you're increasing by GBP 100 million. Is that primarily just because of the reduction in strain, or does that include anything material from the new individual annuity product that you mentioned? On the Pensions and Savings piece, in 2025, how much of the GBP 500 million from Pensions and Savings is from sort of organic increases from the workplace that is already on the books? Finally, just in terms of this year's BPA strain and cash multiple, is there any difference if you exclude the transaction that you did on your own plan? Thank you.
Okay. I mean, I'll take all of those. The retirement solutions target the extra GBP 100 million. It's a combination of the two, basically. It's coming from the capital working harder for us as we get more capital efficient and the work we're doing on retirement income and mortgage solutions. You know, Tom follows the Phoenix philosophy of under promise and overdeliver. On pensions and savings, I would say that the lion's share of that increase is coming about from our existing customers. I mean, already today, 90% of that workplace long-term new business cash is coming from our existing customers. As Colin said, how many businesses get 250,000 new customers a year before they even start the trade?
The lion's share is coming there. There's nothing particularly heroic in terms of winning new business in the marketplace. Your BPA question... Sorry, I didn't write it down.
Exclude your transaction.
Not materially different. Yeah. Not materially different.
Great. Thank you.
Morning. Well, afternoon, actually. It's Abid Hussain from Panmure. Actually, I am a customer, and I haven't lapsed yet, but I am looking forward to the call, Andy. Two questions from me if I can, please. Firstly, on pensions and savings, can you just give us some color around the competitors and the competitive landscape separately in workplace and in retail? Are you coming up against other insurers, against asset managers or both? Is this, is this space more or less competitive than the BPA market? From the outside, it feels like it's more competitive than BPAs. Then the second question is on PPAs and fronting.
It feels like you're missing an opportunity by not focusing on the fronting market by originating deals and parsing out the risk through the back door, given LCP's predictions and the market size there. If you could just talk to that, please.
Sure. I'll get Tom to talk to the second one, and I'll get Colin to talk, to color around pensions and savings. The one bit I just wanna quickly add, before I pass to Colin in terms of competitive relative to PPA, basically, you know, pensions and savings is fee-based capital-light business. Yeah. It's a very attractive, but it is. It's thin of margin, and cost efficiency is critical. And I cannot. You know, when I joined Phoenix, I was really, you know, hugely pleasantly surprised about our ability to leverage the TCS partnership to get market-leading cost efficiency.
The, you know, the fact that our workplace marginal unit cost is halving from what was already not bad in Standard Life, now as part of Phoenix Group, I mean, that, that is something that is so hard for others to replicate in that market. In a relatively thin margin business where cost is a larger part of the value chain relative to, say, PPA, getting that lower cost is hugely beneficial. Colin, do wanna give a bit of color about the competitive landscape for workplace and retail?
In workplace, you know, in the, in the master trust market, we see broadly it's insurers and EBCs who've launched their own master trust propositions. That's, that's predominantly it. There was a massive explosion in the number of master trusts before Master Trust Authorisation because it didn't require any capital be put down. There, there was an absolute proliferation of them. Master Trust Authorisation came in, which is why you're now seeing that market contract because it was an easy way of getting kind of around and into the marketplace. With regards to insurers, kind of all the kind of normal names, most of which I've worked for over the years. In terms of the retail market, it's a, it's a very crowded space.
There are lots of platform propositions out there. I think that's why we're gonna focus on our, on our in-force book because I think that's where the opportunity is. It's a combination of some very big kind of, you know, platform opportunities, you know, that have been bought for hundreds of millions of GBP, you know, and obviously that's gonna work through into the economics of how they price that business. That's where we don't wanna go. We wanna make sure that we retain our cost efficiency because that will flow through into our pricing.
There are also quite a number of kind of FinTech-y digital startups, and I think where they perhaps struggle a bit more is they haven't got a trusted brand, a known or trusted brand, or it's very difficult and expensive for them to build that. They don't have the in-force book to look after.
On to the second one.
Yeah. fronting arrangements. In terms of BPA fronting arrangements, we've done a reasonably good job of putting in place QSR transaction partners. We've put 4 different umbrella contracts in place with different counterparties. That means that it is an option for us. Then separately, we're working on PhoenixRE. I think it's definitely something that would allow us to increase our capacity above our GBP 300 million at some stage. I mean, in terms of healthy competition, the BPA market is, you know. There's eight very active players. It tends to be that the different opportunity sizes, it tends to filter itself down. We think there's slightly less competition for some of the slightly bigger opportunities.
It, you know, and there tends to be more at the sort of bigger end and then more at the sort of slightly smaller end. There seems to be less competition again. I think it There's a sort of difference in the market positioning for each opportunity.
Stephen.
Thank you. Stephen Hayward from HSBC. Two questions, please. Right at the beginning of the capital markets event, Andy, you mentioned that you are looking at a single best way of doing things, you know, single internal model. Does this apply to your administration base as well? Are you going down to the single TCS or Alpha platform as well? Have you made a decision there? Right at the end of the presentation, you highlighted that from 2025, you see very attractive DPS growth. Can you define very attractive to us? 'Cause I would say that would be high single-digit DPS growth. Can you give us any more color around that? Thank you.
Yes. So, on the second one, nothing more to add to what I've said. Our dividend policy is it's sustainable and grows over time. You know, the GBP 500 million is after investment into BPA capital, after acquisition costs in terms within the GBP 1.5 billion target. We want the dividend to be sustainable into the long term, you know, which, you know, for us currently is 20+ years. Yeah. The dividend is a judgment the board forms from each year in March. It's not formulaic, yeah, as it, you know, which is what you'd hear from pretty much any company. On the first question.
Absolutely, the philosophy is we invest in a single best way of doing things, and it's the reason why we can deliver those cost efficiency numbers that I talked about earlier on. That goes across all aspects of the business. You know, finance and actuarial systems, internal models, legal entities, and so on and so forth, as I said earlier. Given the number of integrations that we've got on the go, at this stage, we're running TCS and Alpha together. We haven't made a decision to do anything other than that at this stage. Were we to decide in due course to combine to one, there would be further synergies that aren't in our current synergy targets.
You know, there's a big book of work on the go here. We're kind of taking things in a sensible, orderly fashion. Quite a few of my team nodded at that, so that was a good answer.
Thanks. Ria Shah, Deutsche Bank. Two questions from me. The first on the BPA for 2022 and going forward. You achieved a 3 x multiple this year. Are you looking to sustain that going forwards, or at least until 2025? The second question is, you've spoken about having hired very good staff over the last few years and building up for your current capabilities. For all the new launches that you're talking about going forward, do you have any staff? Do you need to hire more staff for that? Are there any capacity constraints that you're thinking about there?
Okay. I'll give you a sense on the first one and ask Andy to pick up on the second one. In the first one, you know, we're not giving a kind of specific target around that multiple, but generally, as you improve the capital efficiency, so the multiple will tend to go up. We were at a 6.5% strain last year with a 2.6x multiple. This, again, won't be directly formulaic. It depends on the nature of the business. We've seen the multiple go up to 3x this year with the 6% strain. You know, equally, it does depend on the duration of the business, the nature of the business.
Don't sort of view it as formulaic. Generally speaking, as the strain comes down, the multiple will edge up. Andy, in terms of, people capability around what we're doing?
Largely, I think most of the work has been done. If I were to think about where our focus is over the next 12 months or so, in Colin's world, we'll build out a bit more scale in the retail advisor space, the IFA space, which we've been really absent from for a number of years. I think there's things we can do there. When I'm saying building out scale, I'm not talking about hundreds of people. I'm talking about in denominations of 10s and 20s rather than anything beyond that. Similarly, just a bit more strengthening around probably our D2C marketing capability as we adjust to the new sort of regulatory landscape. nothing in a huge way in terms of additional capabilities, I don't think.
I would say that we do always look for quality people in the environment as well. Our phone, my phone certainly rings a lot with people who are interested in being part of the journey.
Are we done in the room? I think we're done in the room. Andrew, any on the webcast?
Nothing we haven't already covered. We'll probably just end it there I think.
Okay. Well, look, thanks everyone very much indeed for coming along. What I'm gonna suggest is the one in five of you that are Phoenix Group customers. If you leave by that door, then the four in five, we've got a different team for you over that door. No, I'm only joking. Really appreciate you coming along today. Thanks for your time. We'll be around for a few minutes afterwards if there's any further things we haven't already covered. Appreciate you taking the time. Great to see everyone here face to face, we'll catch up again soon. Thank you.