Senior plc (LON:SNR)
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May 1, 2026, 5:15 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: H1 2022

Aug 1, 2022

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

That's somebody coming or going?

Bindi Foyle
CFO, Senior plc

Yeah, coming.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Okay. All right. Well, good morning. Welcome to Senior plc's 2022 interim results presentation, and thanks very much for making the effort to get here to the London Stock Exchange. A warm welcome too, for those of you joining remotely. In terms of our agenda this morning, I will briefly cover the highlights. Bindi will run through and comment on the results, and then I will give an update on markets, strategy, and outlook. Yeah, we're pleased to deliver this strong set of results compared to the same period in 2021, which are in line with our expectations. Profitability has improved, and our healthy balance sheet has been enhanced through strong free cash flow performance.

Our core markets are showing good growth as activity levels pick up with order intake increasing and an encouraging book-to-bill ratio of 1.34. You'll all be aware of the much-discussed global supply chain constraints and increasing inflationary pressures caused by external events. As you will see from our results, we continue to manage the impact of those diligently to ensure we satisfy our customers and other stakeholders. Steico was our last acquisition in 2015, and that fluid conveyance business is a real asset to the company with its position as a significant supplier to the tier one partners on the F-35 program. We're very particular when it comes to looking at acquisition targets. You can be sure that we are very positive about the growth prospects for Spencer Aerospace, which is on track to complete in quarter three.

We're anticipating further good progress in 2022, in line with previous expectations, with performance in the second half of the year expected to be similar to the first half. Reflecting confidence in the group's performance, financial position, and future prospects, the board is reinstating dividend payments and has approved an interim dividend of GBP 0.003 per share. With that, I will now hand over to Bindi to take us through the financial results. After which, I'll pick up on markets, strategy, and outlook to finish.

Bindi Foyle
CFO, Senior plc

Thank you, David. Good morning. I want to start by sharing the first half performance. We delivered a strong performance with improved profitability, strong cash generation, and significantly delevered the balance sheet. Revenue grew 16% on a constant currency basis, the group's adjusted operating margin increased by 140 basis points to 3.1%. Adjusted profit before tax was GBP 8.8 million, an improvement of GBP 7.9 million, and adjusted earnings per share significantly increased to 1.92 pence. With increased profitability, we generated strong free cash flow of GBP 19.3 million. After considering adverse currency movements of GBP 11 million, net debt, excluding leases, reduced to GBP 72.9 million at the end of June, a GBP 7 million improvement since December.

The group's net debt to EBITDA significantly improved to 1.3 times, which is now within our target range. With improved profitability and a strengthened balance sheet, return on capital employed increased by 230 basis points, and dividends have been reinstated with an interim dividend of 0.3 pence per share. I will now summarize the key elements of the group's trading performance in the first half. We are operating in an inflationary environment, and I've provided bridges to show the inflationary pressure and our mitigating actions around diligently managing costs, increasing prices, and surcharge recovery. In the markets in which we operate, it is not typical to be able to apply margin to cost pass-through or to surcharges.

The chart at the top bridges revenue from GBP 333 million in H1 2021 to GBP 402 million in H1 2022. With a stronger U.S. dollar compared to prior year, the group recorded favorable exchange translation of GBP 15 million. We had pricing benefits of GBP 8.1 million and volume growth of GBP 46 million, reflecting the ramp-up in civil aircraft production rates, growth in land vehicles, power and energy, semiconductor equipment, and space markets. The chart at the bottom bridges the increase in adjusted operating profit from GBP 5.2 million in H1 2021 to GBP 12.6 million in H1 2022. The improved profitability reflected underlying volume-related operating leverage across our businesses and our ability to successfully mitigate and manage diligently the supply chain constraints and increasing inflationary pressures.

We saw inflationary cost increases of GBP 9.4 million and recovered GBP 8.1 million through price increases. This was achieved through a combination of contractual pass-throughs. Remember, majority of our aerospace contracts have material pass-through clauses, and persistent active dialogue with our customers. Increased volumes delivered underlying profit increase of GBP 9.1 million. Resumption of customer and operational site visits and impetus on information security and resilience increased central costs by GBP 0.9 million. The group is managing supply chain constraints and increasing inflationary pressures diligently, and delivered a strong performance in the first half of 2022 when compared to prior year. Looking at divisional performance, revenue from aerospace increased by GBP 30.8 million, and Flexonics grew by GBP 23.3 million. Excluding the prior year sales from QinetiQ, which was divested in April 2021, aerospace revenue on an organic basis increased by GBP 39.5 million, up 18%.

Civil aerospace sales increased by GBP 40.4 million, up 33%, reflecting higher aircraft production rates, particularly for single-aisle aircraft. Defense revenue decreased by GBP 8.3 million as orders were delayed due to the late approval of the Appropriations bill, which resulted in the continuing resolution coming into force, and F-35 sales were impacted by customer inventory levels. A number of our aerospace businesses supply product to broader industrial markets, and revenue from these markets increased by GBP 7.4 million from growth in space and semiconductor equipment activity. In Flexonics, revenue grew by 20%. Revenue from land vehicle markets increased by GBP 13.8 million, up 22%. Senior outperformed the market as we benefited from the launch and ramp-up of new programs. Senior sales to the North American truck and off-highway market increased by GBP 7.9 million, up 23%.

Sales to other truck and off-highway regions, primarily Europe, increased by GBP 5 million, and sales to passenger vehicle markets increased by GBP 0.9 million. Revenue from power and energy markets increased by GBP 9.5 million, up 18%, because of increasing demand for upstream oil and gas activity and improved maintenance and overhaul activity from downstream and power gen customers. The growth in revenue in both divisions led to growth in profit and margins. In aerospace, adjusted operating profit increased by 78% to GBP 9.8 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 130 basis points to 3.7%. In Flexonics, adjusted operating profit increased by 45% to GBP 11.3 million, and the margin increased by 140 basis points to 8.2%.

This improvement in profitability in both divisions reflected the underlying volume related operating leverage across our operating businesses and price increases to help offset the impact of material and other inflationary cost increases. This slide shows the reconciliation of adjusted operating profit to statutory reported profit for the period. It also highlights our interest and tax charges. Net finance costs decreased by GBP 0.5 million to GBP 3.8 million, mainly due to higher net finance income from the UK pension plan. A tax charge of GBP 0.8 million was recognized on the group's adjusted PBT. Looking ahead to the full year, we currently expect the group's effective tax rate on adjusted profit before tax to be around 10%.

This is lower than previously anticipated, as the impact of some tax incentives, R&D in the U.S. and CapEx in the U.K., as well as some prior adjustments, have a positive effect on keeping the effective tax rate low. In terms of reconciling adjusted profit to statutory reported profit, we recognize net P&L restructuring income of GBP 2.8 million, which includes a GBP 3.4 million from an aerospace manufacturing grant. Other items excluded from the adjusted profit measure is half a million pounds for costs for corporate undertakings. As a reminder, the 21.5 million income in half one 2021 related to the divestment of the QinetiQ disposal and costs of GBP 2.7 million relating to bid defense and other corporate activities. Now on to cash. With our focus on cash generation, we delivered strong free cash inflow of GBP 19.3 million.

With demand growing and some supply chain lead times increasing, we had some increase in working capital, particularly inventory. With the benefit from our relentless and effective focus on working capital management, from a cash flow perspective, we saw a minimal working capital outflow of GBP 1.2 million in the period. We will continue to manage this diligently in line with our operational needs. Net capital expenditure of GBP 11.4 million was 0.6 times pre-IFRS 16 depreciation. For the full year 2022, CapEx is expected to be slightly below pre-IFRS 16 depreciation. Payments for interest, tax, and pension cash contributions total GBP 7.4 million. After GBP 1.8 million net cash outflows from restructuring and corporate undertaking, the group generated net cash inflow of GBP 17 and a half million in the first half of 2022.

We further delevered the balance sheet in H1 2022. The group's net debt to EBITDA improved to 1.3 times compared to 1.9 in December. Leverage is now within our normal range of between 0.5 and 1.5 times. After considering the $30 million payable for the acquisition of Spencer Aerospace in the second half of the year, we expect net debt to EBITDA to be lower at December 2022 compared to December 2021. Net debt before lease liabilities was GBP 72.9 million at the end of June, and the group had liquidity headroom of GBP 228 million under its committed borrowing facilities. In June, we refinanced the U.S. $50 million rolling credit facility and extended its maturity to June 2025. In October, we will repay the $20 million loan note as planned.

The majority of Senior's borrowings are at fixed interest rates. However, we have implemented a global cash pooling structure to further enhance our liquidity and cash management, and it will help us mitigate rising interest costs on floating rate borrowings. Senior has a healthy balance sheet, significantly delevered, with strong liquidity. In summary, Senior delivered a strong first half performance. The group is managing supply chain constraints and increasing inflationary pressures diligently, and profitability increased in both divisions. We generated strong cash inflow, significantly delevered the balance sheet, and reinstated dividends, a reflection of confidence in the group's performance today and our future prospects. Thank you, and I will now hand back to David to cover market, strategy, and outlook.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Thank you, Bindi. Let's turn our attention to markets. In the first half of 2022, aerospace represented 66% of the group's revenues, and Flexonics was 34%. It's great to see the proportion of civil aerospace increasing again as aviation markets recover and OEMs start to ramp up production in response. Defense has reduced in proportion, and that is partly due to a delay in orders as a consequence of the continuing resolution being in place until the U.S. Appropriations Act was passed in March. The recovery in land vehicle markets, which started last year, continued, particularly in our truck and off-highway business. Power and energy actually had a healthy growth, but reduced as a percentage of total sales as other markets grew more quickly. One thing I did want to bring out is the relative exposure to wide-body compared to single-aisle.

In the first half of this year, wide-body sales accounted for 21% of total civil aero sales, while smaller aircraft represented 79%. This chart shows the percentage of our aerospace sales for H1 2022 by platform and helps to set the scene for our aerospace and defense markets. Remember, this includes all sales to all customers that end up on a particular platform. For example, sales to Safran on the LEAP-1A engine would show up on the A320 segment. As can be seen, the Airbus single-aisle program represents the largest percentage of sales by platform.

The last time I showed you this chart, the 737 MAX was only our fifth largest platform, but we did predict it would go racing up the rankings, and with the increased production rates of Boeing compared to last year, that's exactly what has happened, and it should continue to grow. The 787 has temporarily moved down the rankings while production remains at a low level, but I fully expect that to climb next year once deliveries recommence and production levels increase. The 767 is making an appearance here for the first time as a result of the new business which we won this year on that platform, and it will also increase now we're in full production following a very successful onboarding program. The F-35 and C-130 aircraft remain our largest defense platforms.

I've shown this chart a few times now, so most of you will be familiar with the high proportion of sales not attributable to any specific platform at 2% or higher. At 42% of our aerospace division revenue, this is an important part of our business and will include sales on space platforms, aftermarket, and also sales which emanate from our aerospace businesses, but are for other industrial markets. A good example would be sales for semiconductor equipment and medical applications. Let's remind ourselves of what drives the long-term structural growth of the aerospace sector, as it's easy to forget in the eye-catching headlines that currently exist. The growing middle classes in Asia will drive growth over the next 20 years. You know, around the world, only around 20% of the global population has ever flown, and in Asia, it is a fraction of that.

You know, this is a large, barely tapped market for aviation. Anyone who's ventured onto a flight or to an airport recently will know that people like to fly. They don't like to queue, but they do like to fly. Of course, there are still some limiting factors such as China's zero-COVID policy. IATA's most recent forecast is for domestic travel to reach 2019 levels by next year, and for international travel to reach 2019 levels by 2025. Beyond this, the drivers supporting air traffic growth over the long term of around 3%-4% per annum remain in place. Production rates for single aisle aircraft are increasing, and that will be followed by widebody.

As demand continues to recover, production of new aircraft will be supported by the replacement cycle, driven by the retirement of older, less efficient aircraft. Given the climate challenge and high fuel costs, the imperative for efficiency has never been greater. With our diversified product portfolio, and especially the attractive positions we hold across the newest generation of single aisle aircraft platforms, we are well-positioned to benefit from this market growth. Production rates for single aisle aircraft have continued to increase this year. On the A320 family in the recent earnings call, Airbus stated that they intend to ramp up to a monthly production rate of 65 in early 2024, and have reiterated their intent to further increase rates to 75 per month sometime in 2025. This is great news for the whole industry.

Boeing stated on the recent earnings call that the 737 program has reached 31 per month, and they're seeking to stabilize at that level before increasing further, which will depend on supply chain readiness rather than demand, given they have a substantial order book. As discussed previously, full recovery in the long-haul international travel sector, which typically uses widebody aircraft, will take longer than domestic and other short-haul routes. Airbus have reaffirmed that they expect increased production of the A350 family from an average production rate of 5 per month to around 6 per month by early 2023. For the A330 family, production will increase from 2 per month to almost 3 per month at the end of 2022. It was good to hear Boeing's confidence that deliveries of the 787 platform will recommence soon, once cleared by the FAA.

Production remains at a very low rate in the meantime, and once deliveries resume, they expect a gradual return to 5 per month over time. Production of the 767 will continue at the rate of 3 per month, and Boeing have said that the first delivery of the 777X is still expected in 2025, and the production of the passenger and freighter versions of the 777 continue at current levels. By the way, for those of you who were at the Farnborough Airshow, you may have seen the 777X flying there. I watched it with some of the senior team from Boeing, and we were all amazed by the agility and responsiveness of such a giant aircraft in the very skillful hands of a test pilot, as well as the unique folding wings.

The last four meters of the wings fold up on landing to allow better access to airports. In fact, we make the folding wing tip assembly in our factory near Seattle. Overall, our focus for defense is very much on the U.S. market, where defense spending is almost as high as the next 10 countries combined, and series production levels reach meaningful volumes for sustained periods, which in due course will also generate good aftermarket sales for our fluid conveyance businesses. There's broad bipartisan support in the U.S. Senate for a big increase in spend to $857 billion in fiscal year 2023, and we sincerely hope that next year's Appropriations Act is passed more quickly to avoid another extended continuing resolution.

Long-established programs such as C-130 and P-8 remain important revenue drivers for Senior, but of course F-35 is the largest defense program that we are on. We have several operating businesses supplying into various customers on this program, so we're encouraged to see Lockheed Martin confirming high levels of production over coming years. There are newer growth programs that will become important for us. For example, our high-pressure ducting products are the Boeing-Saab T-7A Red Hawk platform, which is a new Air Force trainer jet, and which will ramp up production over the coming years. We'd expect that platform to be successful internationally in addition to U.S. volumes.

Sales of the type of products we make in our aerospace operating businesses into end markets outside of the civil aerospace and defense markets are classified under other aerospace and include sales into the space, semiconductor equipment, and medical markets. At 11% of group sales, it's an increasingly meaningful part of our business. We're pleased that our business development efforts have matured into volume production and revenues. A good example of what's in this category is our growing sales to Lam Research, a semiconductor equipment manufacturer. The semiconductor end market is currently experiencing high levels of demand from the strong consumer electronic sector, and it's being further strengthened by recovering industrial markets such as automotive. Given the well-publicized chip shortages affecting various industries, we're seeing investment in semiconductor manufacturing capacity in the U.S. and Europe.

Our highly engineered proprietary products using our high-precision valve technology has multi-market applicability, including that semiconductor manufacturing equipment, as well as medical products. Other sales in this category include cryogenic valves for space launch vehicles and structural assemblies for space satellites. Turning now to Flexonics. We'll firstly look at land vehicles, which covers truck, off-highway, and passenger vehicles. For this market, we sell a range of proprietary products to major OEMs, in particular our exhaust gas recirculation coolers or EGR coolers. Coolers as they're commonly known, which protect the environment by reducing emissions. There was strong market year-over-year growth in North America and Europe in the heavy-duty truck and off-highway sectors. Although global passenger vehicle production continued to be affected by the well-publicized supply chain issues affecting our customers, especially ongoing semiconductor availability.

Senior outperformed each of the land vehicle sectors in which we operate, recording strong growth in truck and off-highway, and even seeing a 6% increase in sales to passenger vehicle customers. This is a direct result of partnering with market-leading customers and the benefits from new contracts won in recent years that are now ramping up in production. While we're thoughtful about the macroeconomic impact of deflationary measures being implemented by central banks on these markets, our strong positions and easing supply chain constraints should help to balance the risk associated with that. Our EGR cooler expertise means that we are well-positioned for other applications which need innovative thermal management and fluid conveyance solutions, notably battery and electronics cooling for electric vehicles. The level of bid and product development activity in this area is continuously increasing, which augurs well for medium and long-term success in these markets.

Our other most important Flexonics market is power and energy, where we supply to upstream and downstream oil and gas customers, and are keenly involved in the transition to clean energy. Markets have been growing in 2022, including repair, overhaul, and replacement work for downstream customers, an important market sector for Senior's Pathway business. As Bindi mentioned previously, sales to power and energy markets increased 18% year-over-year in the first half of this year. In the medium term, we're well-positioned to grow our non-fossil fuel business, building on our existing renewables and nuclear energy customer base, including the nascent small modular reactor or SMR sector, where we are now involved in active bids for North American customers.

Most of you will be familiar with our strategy and technology themes from the presentations at our Capital Markets Day last October, from earlier this year at our 2021 results presentation. As a quick refresher, we highlighted two key technology themes. One was fluid conveyance and thermal management, which in the first half of 2022 represented two-thirds of group revenue, with the other being structures. In Senior, we use structures as a generic term for precision machine parts and higher-level structural assemblies for both airframe and aero engines, as well as highly engineered precision machine components and sub-assemblies for industrial engine and power and energy applications. Our strategy for structures business is straightforward, and we've been making good progress on it. We've a well-equipped global footprint, including truly world-class manufacturing facilities in Southeast Asia, as well as North America and the U.K.

Our focus is on filling our existing capacity with work that meets our returns criteria, and that's coming from the civil aerospace recovery, growing market share, and some more diversification into space and defense. In the first half, we made very good progress with sales increasing as aircraft engine and space production programs ramped up, and we got up to full production levels for recent contract wins. As volumes increase in 2023 and beyond, we fully expect more profitable growth for our structures businesses. In June, we announced the acquisition of Spencer Aerospace, which remains on track to close in quarter three. Spencer is a leading manufacturer of highly engineered, high-pressure hydraulic fluid fittings for use in commercial and military aerospace applications. While Senior already has some expertise in fluid fittings, our customers have been strongly encouraging us to increase our presence in this area.

Indeed, at the Farnborough Airshow two weeks ago, we had a very positive response when I met with customers in relation to this acquisition. Our combined expertise and market reach will allow us to respond decisively and rapidly grow associated revenues. The acquisition will further enhance Senior's industry-leading fluid conveyance capabilities and is an important step in our strategy to optimize our portfolio and maximize value for shareholders. On this slide, you can see some of the highly engineered fluid conveyance and thermal management products that we supply into a range of diverse and attractive end markets, including medical, semiconductor equipment, defense, industrial, and of course, commercial aerospace. It is these sorts of applications where we concentrate our product development activities. This model of providing innovative products using proprietary technology, servicing diverse and attractive end markets, is a fundamental element of Senior's go-forward strategy.

This core capability continues to be highly relevant as we transition towards a low-carbon economy. We continue to invest in new technology and product design and development in the areas of fluid conveyance, thermal management, and additive manufacturing in support of our key markets in aerospace, land vehicles, and power and energy as they transition towards a low-carbon economy. In aerospace, our traditional fluid conveyance products are entirely compatible with sustainable aviation fuels currently under evaluation by our customers. Our additive manufacturing capabilities are enabling advances in complex product design for improved performance and weight reduction for the benefit of our customers.

Our world-class capability in thermal management and fluid conveyance opens up opportunities to support electric and hybrid air vehicle applications, and we're leveraging and building upon our long experience in providing hydrogen fluid handling and distribution products for industrial markets to support development of both on-aircraft and off-aircraft hydrogen technologies as this alternative propulsion system evolves. Excuse me. In land vehicles, our current exhaust gas recirculation and waste heat recovery products continue to support evolving land vehicle powertrain systems as they become more efficient and lower their impact on the environment. To focus on product offerings for the transition to low-carbon economy, we're engaged with our customers' new product development programs by providing design and engineering support for cooling and fluid handling solutions for batteries and electronics on the growing number of electric and hybrid vehicles.

We're supporting the development of commercial vehicle hydrogen fuel cell cooling and conveyance by capitalizing on years of experience of producing hydrogen fuel cell products in the energy sector. In power and energy, we continue to develop an established wide range of fluid conveyance and thermal management products, many of which, such as our expansion joints, use our world-leading bellows technology. Our products are ideally suited for harsh environments in green energy generation, including solar farms, wind power plants, hydroelectric, geothermal, fuel cell, and nuclear power applications. Our many years' experience of providing fluid conveyance products for harsh environments, and specifically hydrogen fuel cell cooling conveyance, opens up opportunities in hydrogen production and infrastructure applications. Hopefully, as you can see, our capabilities and technology will remain highly relevant as we transition over coming years and decades to a net zero environment.

At the time of our full year results, we gave a full update on our sector-leading ESG achievements and progress, so I won't repeat it all here. For anyone who missed that, please do read of our comprehensive sustainability report within our 2021 annual report. With regard to our actions on climate change, you will remember that we were the first company in our sector anywhere in the world to have our near term Scope 1, 2, and 3 greenhouse gas emission reduction targets approved and verified through the Science Based Targets initiative. We very recently submitted our long-term 2050 net zero targets to SBTi for verification and approval. That will keep us in the vanguard of companies taking real and decisive action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within our own operations and through our supply chain.

We'll give a full update on progress with all of our sustainability activities with our 2022 full year results. Let me finish by talking about the outlook for Senior. As you've seen, trading performance has been strong in the first half of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, in line with our expectations. The board anticipates further good progress in 2022, also in line with previous expectations. Performance in the second half of the year, we're expecting to be similar to the first half. Along with a strong cash performance and healthy balance sheet, this gives the board confidence to announce the reinstatement of a dividend for 2022.

Our core markets are showing good growth as activity levels pick up, and we're continuing to diligently manage the global supply chain constraints and increasing inflation pressures caused by external events, always ensuring that our focus is on satisfying our customers and other stakeholders. We remain committed to delivering a strong recovery across both divisions, driving group ROCE to a minimum of 13.5%. With sector-leading sustainability credentials, a clear strategy, and strong capabilities with a global footprint, we are well-positioned to capture growth opportunities and deliver enhanced value for our stakeholders. With that, we'll open the floor for any questions which, Bindi and I will be delighted to answer.

Andy Douglas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Good morning, guys.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Morning.

Andy Douglas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Three questions, please, and then one small point of clarification, if I may. Can we talk firstly about supply chains? You guys were quite early, I felt, in talking about potential supply chains in aerospace, and now one or two others are now talking about it. I was just wondering, if we think about as we progress into second half of the year and into 2023, do you actually see additional challenges or actually things getting slightly better for you guys? And then I guess, technically it's the fourth question, the opportunity for market share, given how important supply chains are to Airbus and Boeing, do you still see that as an opportunity from either dual sourcing or actually winning share from others?

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Yeah, I mean, first, thanks, Andy. Firstly on the overall environment, it is challenging, but, I think there are signs it's starting to improve, and, you know, we saw this in our Flexonics business last year. First of all, particularly on availability of raw materials like steel and nickel were in high demand. That has started to improve. You're quite right, if you'd seen us in our business reviews, I was on my soapbox and lecturing to all our aerospace operating businesses about the need to extend lead times on our ERP systems. Perhaps provision a little bit more inventory while still keeping our eye on cash, just to be ready for what we saw coming. Indeed that's what's happened. Perhaps that's why we fared a bit better than most.

I would expect the whole supply chain to continue to ramp up to meet what, you know, Airbus and Boeing and others like Embraer and Bombardier are saying their expectations are with regard to volume. I've said before, I think we'll see lots of hiccups, but without convulsions. You know, that I'm quite sure we will get to those levels that the primes are talking about. I will say we'll manage them diligently. If Lonnie was here from California, he says that means we're managing the hell out of it. We've got, you know, our operations guys, both in procurement and in manufacturing, do a really good job day to day.

I'd be lying if I said it was easy, but I think we're handling it very well and working with our suppliers and our customers to make sure we keep delivering on time. But overall, I would expect to gradually ease once the production levels become a bit more stable. I think in terms of the opportunities, I think I've said before that, you know, perhaps fewer suppliers went out of business during COVID than we might have thought 'cause there was a lot of government support with the furlough scheme here, with direct support in the States and in Europe as well.

Nonetheless, there are some that have not managed to make it all the way through, and we've been able to help our customers out by picking up some of their work and transferring it. Those discussions continue. There are still other opportunities associated with, you know, the primes really wanting to continue to supply. They want to work with financially reliable and operationally reliable suppliers. Yeah, we're still very busy when it comes to the new bid front, and I would fully expect us to keep winning more work.

Andy Douglas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Okay, perfect. On Flexonics, can you give us an update on the Pathway outlook for the second half? Clearly you had an improving outlook in the first half. Just wondering how that looks second half. That's historically been quite important for you. And then just picking up something you talked about on the heavy truck side. You talked about electronics cooling, whereas historically you've focused predominantly on battery cooling. Is that? Am I being a bit thick here and missed that, or is that something that's kind of new for you guys? It sounds like it's a new technological development.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Yeah. I think first on Pathway and probably everyone knows Pathway is our business in Texas that really focuses on downstream oil and gas, nuclear and renewables. They make the massive expansion joints almost the size of a house they always say. It's a good business, and it has a lot of aftermarket business. With oil prices where they are and with refining capacity struggling to keep up with demand, particularly in North America because of everything else that's been going on geopolitically, that's been very good for Pathway. We saw that kind of turn about the second quarter, which is when we expected it to.

Lots of overhaul, maintenance, repair, and quality activity, and we think that will continue into H2, you know, same level as we've seen in Q3. I think on the heavy truck, perhaps we've talked more about the battery cooling aspects, which is obvious. All these batteries exude huge amounts of heat, but so do the electronics packages. You got lots of electronic motors in there as well, and they've got lots of power devices in them, and they also exude huge amounts of heat. That's like a, I don't know if you could call secondary or a joint first kind of application for cooling technology. It's not just the battery, it is the electronics and all these heavy duty trucks and commercial vehicles will require that.

Yes, we won a first order for an all-electric truck for a big European manufacturer, and we hope there's more to come. We're certainly, again, lots of bid activity going on and development activity going on to support that.

Andy Douglas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Cool. Last one and I'll let someone else have a go. GBP 8.1 million of price increase in the first half was about 2% or just shy of 3%. We're seeing clearly a lot more inflation than 3%. Do we see more prices come through in the second half, or am I missing something?

Bindi Foyle
CFO, Senior plc

We had inflationary impacts of GBP 9.4 million in the first half of the year, of which we covered 8.1 through price increases. Some of that is contractual pass-through, particularly in aerospace, but equally we had very persistent conversations with our customers to pass on price increases. We expect to be able to do similar performance in the second half of the year. Inflationary impacts are increasing still, but continuing to manage very diligently and therefore recover as much of that as we can and do. Effectively, you know, we've maintained our full year outlook for group performance and H2 to be similar to H1. That takes all of that into account.

Andy Douglas
Managing Director, Jefferies

Great.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

In the middle here.

Speaker 5

Thank you. Good morning. Just two questions, if I may. In terms of the ongoing sort of theme around cost increases, can you just talk a little bit about how the degree of wage inflation you're seeing, any particular sort of hotspots and how you think that'll evolve over the next perhaps 18 months? And secondly, just in terms of the F-35 inventory, that obviously impacted in the second half, can you give us some sort of scale of what's in the system and how quickly you think that'll burn through?

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Yeah, on the cost increase side. Yeah, I think, you know, a lot of the inflationary pressures in the past year have been on material. Everybody's seen where wage settlements are. The precedent's been set. We'll be making sure that in our salary negotiations with employees, we end up with a very fair outcome for our employees, taking into account the cost of living increases and indeed, you know, regional variations. That's going to be the next wave, you know, of inflation pressures for all of industry, and that's something that we, our suppliers, and our customers will be coping with. I anticipate having, you know, similar level of frank, but polite, amicable discussions with them, you know, for the next 18 months. I think that's inevitable.

We're confident we can continue to manage that accordingly. On the F-35 inventory side, I don't think we're too affected by inventory ourselves directly. We're certainly we supply quite well in advance over the main production program for our guys that are facing into F-35. What we were very pleased to see was Lockheed confirming a production rate of between 147 and 153, because there were all sorts of numbers out there that were a lot lower than that. I think that was very good news for us. We're very comfortable at that level. We've got new orders in place now for upcoming lots. We'll be getting into manufacturing those in the second half year.

Speaker 5

Yeah. To be clear, you'd expect your activity on the F-35 to build in the second half?

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Yeah. I think we've got a bit more on F-35 in the second half than we did in the first half, because we had a little. We finished one bunch of work, and we're just starting the other one now. Yeah.

Speaker 5

Thank you.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Harry.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defense Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

David and Bindi, thank you. It's Harry Breach here from Stifel.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Hi, Harry.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defense Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Just a couple. Hi, firstly, coming to your point earlier on about 767 now coming onto the chart, 2% of revenue in the first half. Are there any examples of shipset value increases you'd sort of call out in terms of where we've been in the past relating to work package wins lately? Secondly, just a sort of technical one maybe for Bindi on tax rates after this year. Gonna be, I think, the 10% number you mentioned earlier on. Should we expect that to sort of come back to a more normal maybe 22% level from 2023 and beyond? I did have another question, but I just need to think about it for a second.

Bindi Foyle
CFO, Senior plc

Shall I answer tax?

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defense Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Yeah.

Bindi Foyle
CFO, Senior plc

Essentially at the moment, because of the geographical mix of profit and you're getting the benefit on the U.S. R&D credits and the U.K. CapEx credits, that's led to a lower-than-normal effective tax rate for this year. 10% for this year. Thereafter, based on what we're currently seeing, we expect it to normalize back at around that 22% level for 2023 onwards.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

In terms of your shipset question, yeah, that 767. I think we announced. I can't remember if it was either late last year or earlier this year, we announced that we'd won the floor beam packages on the 767. That's all new content, and it's pretty significant. These are very large parts with lots of part numbers. That's definitely new. Then at the same time, we won the 737 and 777 flight control assemblies, which we're doing at Damar, which is our other Washington State business. That's also new content. Those are the most significant additions that we've had over the past couple of years. As I say, we're still, you know, bidding for quite a number of additional things.

As and when we win those, we'll certainly announce them.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defense Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Yeah. Maybe the other one was sort of just thinking back to the past. You know, pre-COVID, a lot of the conversations we had in the CMD back in late 2019, if I remember well, were about the drag from NPIs and learning curve improvement on your programs. It's a difficult one to quantify, right? Because of the program-specific nature of these. Can you give us a sense about whether they are, you know, still a kind of material driver if you say you've got profitability up on newer programs like, say, 350, 320neo to kind of levels you'd expect. Are they mature, the margins there yet?

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Yeah, we're well through that NPI. Of course, there's always. Every time you win something new, there's gonna be some first article inspections. You know, we've got a pretty slick process now, and wherever possible we'll try and get paid for it, and depending on the circumstances. We're well through that, I mean, that NPI and a few years ago we were doing thousands of new parts every year. It was unprecedented. We're glad to say we're well through that now. Yes, we are absolutely coming up the learning curve on these new programs. It's really about volume now, Harry. As those volumes pick up, we'll see that good operating leverage and margins dropping through.

We've started to see that in the first half of this year, and that's what gives us the confidence as we look into, you know, the second half of this year, 2023 and 2024, that we'll see that improving and back to our return on capital employed number increasing.

Harry Breach
Aerospace & Defense Equity Research Analyst, Stifel

Great. Thank you.

David Squires
CEO, Senior plc

Any more questions? Okay. Well, thanks very much everybody for coming along, this morning. We're much obliged with that, and, we look forward to continuing the dialogue with you. Good.

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