Stelrad Group PLC (LON:SRAD)
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May 7, 2026, 4:35 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: H1 2024

Aug 12, 2024

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Good morning. Welcome to this interim results presentation for Stelrad Group PLC. My name is Trevor Harvey, I am the Group CEO, and I'm joined today by Lee Wilcox, interim Group CFO. Next slide. This is today's agenda. We'll start with an overview of our performance, followed by a detailed review of the financials. We will then have a business review, followed by a summary and outlook. There will be time for Q&A at the end. Next slide, and next slide four, please. Despite challenging market conditions, Stelrad performed strongly in the first half of 2024, and the group is making clear progress against its key strategic objectives. As anticipated, revenue declined by 8.9% as challenging macroeconomic conditions continued. Adjusted operating profit rose by 12.8%, thanks to ongoing operational discipline and margin management actions.

Contribution per radiator, a key metric of our performance, rose by 16% to over GBP 20 as the group benefited from a strong product mix in U.K. and Ireland. Recent data released in May show that in the full year 2023, we extended our position of European market leadership by 1.6 % points to 20.8% in the 20 European countries, for which 2023 share data is available, and which represented around 95% of the market in 2022. As a result of our strong first half performance, we're confident that we will achieve full year consensus expectations, and we're recommending a 2% increase in the interim dividend to 2.98 pence per share. The outlook for the full year 2024 is unchanged, and the group remains confident in its long-term growth plans.

I'll outline some of the key strategic developments we've made during the period, which gives us that confidence. But for now, let me hand over to Lee to take you through the numbers.

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

Thanks, Trevor. Good morning. First, we'll move to slide six. This slide provides a snapshot of our performance for the half year, using some of our financial KPIs. On a headline basis, it is clear that despite a decline in revenue, there's been strong improvement in the other profit and loss measures. Significantly, adjusted operating profit has increased by GBP 1.7 million to GBP 15.7 million, and adjusted operating profit margin has increased by 2.1 % point to 11%. The chart also highlights the decision to increase the interim dividend by 2%, which reflects balance sheet strength and confidence in the group's future growth prospects and cash generation potential.

Positively, our leverage ratio has also improved since prior year, and while the group's operating cash flow conversion percentage has fallen, this is only the case because of a strategic investment in working capital in advance of expected market recovery. Following on from this overview, we'll now explore the performance in more detail, starting with slide seven. On slide seven, we highlight the recent revenue and adjusted operating profit, and adjusted earnings per share, per share at group level. Later in this presentation, we examine revenue and adjusted operating profit in more detail at segmental level. Revenue year-on-year increased by, reduced by 8.9%. 8% of this was directly related to volume, with the balance due to mix, which led to a small reduction in average selling price. Sales volume and product mix are examined in more detail later on.

Despite the revenue reduction, adjusted operating profit has increased by GBP 1.7 million, or 12.8% to GBP 15.7 million, with a 2.1 % point increase in margin. There are many elements to this movement, including favorable product mix in the U.K., where the average size of radiators saw an increase by over 7%. Ongoing operational control, including the benefits of the Q4 2023 restructure, which saw additional volume shifted to our Turkish facility and a reduction of fixed cost in Western Europe. And finally, strong ongoing margin management that helped ensure that price movements were successfully controlled. Adjusted earnings per share was flat year-on-year. The small increase in interest charges and more significant increase in tax charges, due to a one-off tax credit in 2023, combining to offset the increase in operating profits.

Both the increase in interest and taxation have been communicated previously and are factored into consensus. A detailed income statement, which highlights the movement in interest and tax, is included in the appendices. Now moving to slide eight, where we can look at the volume between the panel mix trends in more detail. In respect to volume, we can see the 8% reduction year-on-year, with high inflation and high interest rates continuing to suppress both renovation and new build activity. Despite challenging market environments in recent years, there are some very early signs of recovery in selected markets, with year-on-year H1 volume increases in Belgium, Netherlands, Poland, and Sweden. The trends for premium panel sales were similar to the total market, with the penetration percentage flat year-on-year.

While the group's overall penetration rate was adversely impacted by a reduction in sales volumes to European markets, where these products are well-established, pleasingly, the penetration rate in U.K. and Ireland increased from 2.8% to 3.1%. The continued improvement of the group's contribution per radiator measure clearly highlights the impact of proactive price and cost management, in addition to the benefit of strong product mix in U.K. and Ireland pleasingly, the contribution per radiator measure is strong across all product categories, including standard steel panel radiators. Slide nine, please. Here we can see how revenue is developed by operating segment. Despite a 7.2% decline in sales volumes, U.K. and Ireland revenue only fell by 1.5%.

Sales in the segment benefited from an increase in average size in terms of heat output for each radiator sold, and a greater penetration of premium panel radiators. Strong sales of larger K3 and vertical radiators are gaining momentum, supported by building regulation changes. Within Europe, sales volume declined by 5.1%. Average country and customer mix, in addition to the impact of modest price concessions, meant that revenue declined by 12.6%. As noted earlier, there were some positive trends in certain key European geographies. Euro revenue in GBP terms has also been adversely impacted by year-on-year strengthening the pound against the euro. And finally, sales in Turkey and China are both down on prior year, with ongoing weak economic activity in Turkey. Slide 10.

On this slide, we've provided a bridge of group Adjusted Operating Profit, giving an overview of the key movement before later looking at the performance at segmental level. The bridge clearly highlights the adverse impact of a 210,000-unit reduction in sales volume. But more importantly, the bridge highlights the favorable impact that change in mix, margin management, and proactive initiatives have made to the group's profitability. The improvements in the group's profitability are now embedded in a stronger per radiator contribution, which leaves the group well positioned for market recovery. Now moving on to slide 11. This slide shows how changes in Adjusted Operating Profit have impacted segmental profitability. In the U.K. and Ireland, profit increased by GBP 3.6 million, or 31.5%.

While the segment has been adversely impacted by the most significant volume decline in the group, it has benefited from an improvement product mix, favorable material prices, and the 2023 restructure. Operating profit in Europe has fallen by GBP 1.2 million, or 23.5%. In the segment, the adverse impact of decline in sales volumes has only been partially offset by a small increase in the average contribution per radiator. The segment has benefited from the 2023 restructure and margin management. However, adverse country and customer mix have largely offset these benefits. The performance of Radiators S.p.A. in the Europe segment continues to be below expectations. However, margins of this entity, similar to the entire Europe segment, are expected to improve with market recovery.

Turkey & International operating profit increased by GBP 0.2 million, with the benefit of favorable material prices and economies of higher Turkey production volumes combining to more than offset the decline in sales volumes. Finally, central costs increased due to outturn charges and accruals for benefits, in addition to one-off consultancy costs related to the appraisal of premium panel strategies. Next slide, please. The half one cash flow highlights the cash flow conversion is down slightly year-on-year, mainly owing to the investment in working capital outlined earlier. Otherwise, operating cash flows remain strong, and we expect the conversion percentage to improve in half two. Cash flows for interest have increased as expected. The tax paid is in line with prior year, despite the increased charges, highlighting the non-cash nature of the prior year tax credit.

Despite the working capital investment, free cash flow is still positive, and we expect this to grow in half two, along with operating cash flows. Leverage based on net debt before lease liabilities was 1.49 times EBITDA, which is a significant improvement on June 2023, and only marginally above the full year leverage, despite an increase in seasonal working capital. Leverage has benefited from strong profitability growth and good control of net debt. Slide 13, please. This slide focuses on other key financial areas. I'll go through these in turn, starting with taxation. As noted earlier, the effective tax rate has increased year-on-year to 31.5%, with the one-off credit in 2023, reducing the comparative charge. The rate will remain around 30%, mainly due to withholding tax paid on intercompany dividends received from Turkey.

On dividends, as mentioned in the overview, we reiterate the dividend will increase by 2% in the period, and return on capital employed, where we can see the measure has increased by 2.5 % points to 26.4%, with the measure benefiting from an increase in Adjusted Operating Profit, in addition to a reduction in the GBP value of euro assets due to the strengthening of the pound. Finally, we look at group credit facilities, where we highlight that our two facilities, which total GBP 100 million, remain in place until November 2026. Our relationships with our banking partners remain strong, and at thirtieth of June 2024, group has generous headroom on both facilities and available cash. Slide 14. Finally, on to this slide, we provide technical guidance for use in analyst modeling.

I won't go through all the points on the slide, but I would like to call out a few key items, notably, year-on-year volume reductions are expected to moderate in half two. Investment in working capital, particularly inventories, is expected to remain for the remainder of the year, with a seasonal reduction in debtors at the year-end. In a summary, the 2024 outlook remains unchanged. Thank you. Well, now I'll hand back over to Trevor to cover the business review.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Thanks, Lee. Can we move on to slide 16, please? Before I go into some of the strategic highlights from the period, I wanted to just remind you of where we sit in the market. We are the clear market leader in the European hydronic heat emitter market, operating across 10 core steel panel radiator markets with a highly effective multi-brand strategy. Our 10 core markets have driven our share growth and represented 95% of our total steel panel radiator volume in 2023. We are number one in six of these countries, are in, and are in the top three in 9 of 10. Our customers are served by state-of-the-art operations, following a 6-year investment program between 2015 and 2021, and with ongoing investment to maximize operational flexibility across all our facilities.

As product availability is key to success in the radiator market, all our manufacturing units have associated distribution operations, and we also support customers in Poland and Denmark with local stock and distribution capabilities. Slide 17, please. We operate across three global territories. With revenue of GBP 69.1 million in H1 2024, the U.K. and Ireland represented 48.2% of the group total. Revenue was 1.5% lower than in 2023, with a strong product mix partially mitigating reduced volumes. Standard steel panel radiators represented 94% of product mix, with premium steel panel and other design radiators accounting for 6% of volume. Premium steel panel radiators demonstrated a positive growth trend in H1 2024, and we will look at this in more detail later.

In Europe, which represented 46.7% of total group revenue, sales were down 12.6% to GBP 66.8 million, driven primarily by depressed RMI activity. Europe has an attractive product mix, with standard steel panels representing 75% product mix, and premium steel panels and other design radiators accounting for 11% and 14%, respectively. The acquisition of Radiators S.p.A. has been a key driver of growth in designer radiator volume. Turkey and International represented 5.1% of total group revenue in H1 2024. At GBP 7.2 million, revenue was 30.6% lower than in 2023, with low levels of economic activity in the Turkish domestic market. Standard steel panel radiators represented 95% of product mix, with premium steel panel and other design radiators accounting for 5% volume share. Slide 18.

This slide will be familiar to you, and I want to just spend some time outlining the progress we are making across our four key strategic objectives of growing market share, improving product mix, optimizing routes to market, and positioning effectively for decarbonization. Slide 19. Having moved into number one position for the first time in 2022, Stelrad significantly extended its steel panel radiator market leadership in 2023, delivering on the key strategic objective of growing market share. 2023 data for 20 European countries, which represented 95% of the steel panel radiator market in 2022, was published in May by BRG Building Solutions and showed Stelrad's 2023 market share increasing to 20.8%, a 1.6% points gain relative to 2022.

Although as the clear U.K. market leader, the group benefited from the relative strength of this market compared to mainland Europe. Stelrad has a strong track record of share growth over the longer term, while our traditional competitors, Purmo and Arbonia, have experienced year-on-year share declines. We will continue to leverage our market leadership, strong brands, long-established customer relationships, and flexible, low-cost operations to build on this position into 2024 and beyond. Slide 20. Organic growth and gains through the acquisition of Radiators S.p.A. , which provided access to new routes to market, have enabled Stelrad to increase share in key European markets. In Germany, Europe's third-largest market, excluding Russia, Stelrad Group share was 15.8% in 2023, consolidating the number 3 position gained in 2022.

Leveraging the full year benefits of the Radiators S.p.A. acquisition, the group gained 6.7 % points share versus the prior year and has gained 9.8 % points since 2021. In France, we have consolidated the market leadership position we gained in 2022 with a further 4 % points share growth. At 34.6% in 2023, market share is 8.2 % points higher than it was in 2021. In its traditional core markets of the Netherlands and the U.K., Stelrad further consolidated market leadership in both countries. In the Netherlands, 2023 market share of 47.6% represented a 4% points gain over 2022, and a 1.8 % points gain compared to 2021.

In the U.K., 2023 market share was 52.6%, a 1.1 % rise versus the prior year, and an increase of 0.5% points compared to 2021. Slide 21. In the U.K., share growth has not been at the expense of profitability. Product mix has improved through increasing penetration of premium steel panel radiators, and through sales of products compatible with lower temperature heating systems. In H1 2024, the mix of premium steel panel radiators as a percentage of steel panel volume sold increased by 10% relative to the two previous years, a 0.3 % points increase to 3.1% overall. In terms of positioning effectively for decarbonization, we continue to develop and expand our portfolio of higher heat output products, and are leveraging our long-standing position of credibility and influence with specifiers.

Changes to U.K. building regulations mandating lower temperature heating systems have driven a 7% increase in average rate of heat output, reflecting the specification of higher-rate radiators. In 2023, we extended our range of K3 triple panel, triple convector radiators, and added 900 mm high and vertical steel panel radiator variants, as well as launching Stelrad's Electric Series. As a result, the combined volume of these ranges has increased by 78% relative to 2023, and by 119% compared to 2022 levels. Over time, we anticipate that the significant private RMI market will increasingly adopt the low temperature, low and zero carbon heating systems, which are now beginning to be installed in the new build segment. As a result, the long-term outlook for design, higher heat output, and electric radiators is extremely positive. Slide 22.

Online sales via Stelrad.com, the group's U.K. e-commerce platform, are growing quickly as Stelrad invests to ensure it is effectively positioned for the evolution of routes to market. Digital transformation is a key trend, accelerating in both B2B and B2C markets. Stelrad continues to invest in building information modeling, BIM, to maintain and develop its leading specification position, whilst in parallel, developing Stelrad.com as its direct-to-consumer retail platform. I don't want to go into too much detail in terms of specific numbers here, as it is commercially sensitive, and I'm sure our competitors would be keen to get hold of this. But revenue between H1 2021 and H1 2024 increased by a compound annual growth rate of 38%, making Stelrad.com our fastest growing route into the private RMI market.

Through Stelrad.com, there was a particularly strong mix of design radiators sold, which represented 50.5% of our volume in H1 2024. In comparison, Stelrad's overall mix of design radiators over the period was 6.2%. In summary, investment in Stelrad.com is enabling share gain in profitable product categories beyond the group's traditional routes to market. Slide 23. In H1 2024, Stelrad has invested to position the group effectively for market recovery by driving sustainable cost savings and enabling greater operational flexibility. As a result, Stelrad is well positioned to respond effectively as macroeconomic conditions improve and volumes recover. Product availability is critical to achieving our key strategic objective of growing market share, and Stelrad's market-leading levels of product availability and customer service drive our competitive advantage.

In H1, 2024, U.K. on-time and full delivery performance was over 98%, a figure we are very proud of, and which represents a real differentiator versus the competition. Our customers benefit from having access to the largest distribution centers in both the U.K. and mainland Europe, supported by regional distribution hubs in Poland and Denmark, and by the group's warehousing capability at our low-cost Turkish facility, which has enabled us to further optimize operational efficiency. We have selectively invested in inventory in anticipation of an expected market upturn to ensure Stelrad is well-placed for further share gains in the near future. Slide 25, please. Summary and outlook. Despite continued macroeconomic challenges across Stelrad's geographies, the group has delivered a strong performance in a subdued volume environment, with inflation and high interest rates continuing to suppress both RMI and new build markets.

While revenue fell, our contribution per radiator rose by 16% and adjusted operating profit rose by 12.8% to GBP 15.7 million, benefiting from ongoing operational flexibility and new designs, combined with operational discipline and margin management. In addition, the group has made selective investments in working capital in advance of an expected market recovery, and we are encouraged by some early indicators of recovery in the volumes in some of Stelrad's European territories. The group's outlook for the full year remains unchanged, with the board remaining confident in its long-term growth plans. Stelrad's proactive margin management and cost reduction activities have positioned the group well for an eventual market upturn. The flexibility and resilience of Stelrad's business model continues to underpin confidence in the group's ability to capitalize as markets recover across our core geographies.

Stelrad remains well-positioned for a sustained period of profitable growth in the future, with the group well-placed to benefit from strong underlying replacement demand across Europe and the long-term regulatory tailwinds for decarbonized, energy-efficient heating systems. Lastly, in quarter four, 2024, we intend to hold our first-ever Capital Markets Day in London and will confirm the date in the near future. Thank you for your time today.

Operator

Thank you. We'll now start the Q&A session, and if you wish to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. And please make sure the mute function on your phone is switched off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, it is star one to ask a question. We'll now take our first question from Aynsley Lammin from Investec. Please go ahead.

Aynsley Lammin
Equity Analyst, Investec

Hi. Morning, Trevor. Morning, Lee.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Morning.

Aynsley Lammin
Equity Analyst, Investec

Morning. Three questions, if I could. Just firstly, I wondered if you could give a bit more color on the green shoots, some of the markets you talked about in Benelux, Sweden. How confident are you that they're kind of sustained, you know, signs of sustained recovery? And then second question, just as we kind of see new government in the U.K. pushing, you know, planning, interest rate cuts already happened, you know, what your expectation is for a kind of new housing recovery, what the exposure to the group is there, and, you know, what's the kind of impact on margin and mix? And then thirdly, just on obviously, contribution per radiator is very strong at GBP 20. Is there scope for that to move higher, or is it now just about volumes coming back with the market recovery?

Obviously, you'll, you'll generate a lot more profit per radiator as the recovery comes through. Thanks.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Do you want to answer those, Lee, or do you want me to?

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

I'll make a start. It's still very early days on the markets, Aynsley. I think in terms of it, it's positive to see the H1 year-on-year recovery. I think also there's good volume growth in H2 2023 yet, but it's still pretty early days. And at a percentage of our business, those markets are quite small. In terms of the second question, I think it was around the kind of increase in market with the government initiatives. It's pleasing, obviously, to see spend with the kind of government incentive, well, the idea that government will kind of generate growth through kind of new build activity.

We've looked at the markets in the last 12, 18, 24 months as being suppressed across renovation and new build, and we're hopeful that any recovery will come through both those channels. And as such, we'd expect the margin and mix of the business to be maintained as the recovery grows. If we had a significant injection into, say, new build, then that would probably have a small dilution on some of our key measures, but overall, we expect recovery across all channels. In terms of the contribution per radiator, it's obviously been very positive year to date, and we're very pleased with that.

What we're pleased to see is some of the cost initiative coming through, which has supported that number, which are obviously bedded in in that kind of going forward. And also in the U.K. and Ireland, some of the kind of mix changes, which has really supported that number. So again, we expect that to kind of continue, and though that kind of mix in terms of average size grows further, potentially with decarbonization trends, and that would be a positive for the future. But in terms of immediate terms, we don't expect a significant improvement in half two, but more the same, hopefully. Hopefully, that covers those questions, Aynsley.

Aynsley Lammin
Equity Analyst, Investec

Yeah, great. Just maybe one last one, actually. Just on the U.K. penetration, the premium, you know, went from 2.8 to 3.1. Just what's the expectation of where that can get to over the medium term? I think it's quite a bit lower than kind of some markets in Europe, like Germany. I mean, structurally, where do you think that can get to in the U.K. from the 3.1 currently?

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

It's obviously, I mean, we obviously benchmark that 3.1 versus our Western European entities, kind of countries presence, where that's kind of in the mid- to late teens in some territories. So that gives us a benchmark. We want to move towards that. It's still a very different market and one that we're working to understand in more detail currently with a bit of work that we've been undertaking. So it is very much I don't think we haven't, we haven't got a short-medium-term gain, but obviously, there's significant room to improve in that one.

Great. Well, very helpful. Thank you very much.

No problem.

Operator

Our next question comes from Andrea Collins from Davy. Go ahead.

Andrea Collins
Equity Analyst, J&E Davy

Morning, Trevor. Morning, Lee. Congratulations on the results this morning. Just two questions from me, if that's okay. The first one is just if you could talk us through the pricing environment. I think you mentioned some modest price concessions in Europe in H1. I guess, what do you expect this to continue in the second half of the year? And could you give kind of some sort of color on the scale of those price decreases? And then my second question then just refers to the overall steel panel radiator market. I know you're doing another kind of increased market share growth in the year. But I guess I'm looking here too, because competitors, you mentioned Purmo and Arbonia, and the activity that took place with them in H1.

Have you seen any changes in behavior from these parties yet? Do you think they'll be kind of increasing their focus on radiators? So just some color here on any changes in their activity in H1.

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

In terms of the price concession, they are modest, and some of these price concessions have to make a kind of link to kind of steel price mechanisms. So they're embedded within kind of a underlying decrease in cost of steel price, so it's nothing more. And the other one in Europe, again, it's very modest in terms of, you know, low numbers. It's really supporting long-term partnerships and things like kind of initiatives with certain ones of our customers. And Trevor, you're probably best to look at the steel panel market.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

If you look across the European market, I think the question was specific about Purmo and/or Arbonia. And, you know, both of those companies have recently undergone change of ownerships or in the process of, in the case of Purmo. We haven't seen any increased aggression in terms of their commercial activity. In fact, Purmo, we, we announced a a small 4.5% price increase in the U.K., which was effective in June 2024. Purmo followed a month later with a 4% price increase, which I think indicates that, you know, the orderly market that we have enjoyed for two or three years now looks set to continue.

Andrea Collins
Equity Analyst, J&E Davy

That's great. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Toby Thorrington, from Equity Development. Go ahead. Toby Thorrington, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

Morning, can you hear me?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Yep.

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

Yes.

Operator

Please go ahead.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

Yep. Sorry, thank you. I've got one or two questions, please, perhaps piggybacking on some which have been asked already and tying a couple together, actually. I think you mentioned in the central cost piece that there is a sort of premium panel market review, strategy review. I can't remember exactly what phraseology you used. It sounds like that's ongoing. Is there anything you can share on that, or do we have to wait till the capital markets day? And related to that, could you just remind us what the position of both Purmo and Arbonia is in premium rads, please? That's the first one, two.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Well, I'll answer the first piece, Lee. In terms of the strategic project that we've engaged, that work is in the middle of its project timeline at this moment in time.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

Okay.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

We're not expecting to see the outcome from that until the early part of September. We are working with Eden McCallum, a consultancy that we've worked with in the past. The original premium panel strategy was developed in conjunction with Eden McCallum, and we've been fortunate enough to be able to secure the same team that worked with us back in 2017, to have another look at this market and to look at the, you know, the most appropriate ways to accelerate our growth strategy for premium panel, specifically in the U.K. marketplace. In terms of Purmo and Arbonia, we all have very similar premium panel portfolios. There are some slight changes across the portfolio. Arbonia in particular are locked into a relatively expensive 80/20 configuration for most of their products.

But Purmo have a portfolio very similar to Stelrad, but we seem to be leveraging our position a little bit more successfully across Europe.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

Okay. Great. Thanks for that. I was also going to ask, I suppose, the final question, I think for now, regarding increase in volumes in due course. I know you've got sort of flexible manufacturing, certainly in the U.K., and I think Turkey as well, number of lines that you have. Could you just talk us through, you know, if the market turns on by this time next year, what you need to do, perhaps by reference to headcount and shift patterns and any other actions that you think you might need to take to increase volumes again, please?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Shall I answer that, Lee?

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

I mean, Toby, I think we believe that as I understand, we're probably shooting about 5 million radiators per annum, and we could easily go up to 7, so a 40% increase with no real structural changes. The only investment we need to make is in additional blue-collar labor within Turkey and some training time associated with those individuals. In the current configuration, we can easily do that without any investment in fixed cost across the group.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

Okay. Just relatedly, what's the sort of headcount, group headcount currently, just for ref, point of reference, please?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

I think it's just under 1,400.

Just under 1,400.

Toby Thorrington
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Equity Development Ltd

That's great. Thanks very much. All clear. Thank you.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Thank you.

Operator

We'll now take our next question from Charlie Campbell. Please go ahead. Charlie Campbell, please go ahead. Your line is open.

Charlie Campbell
Equity Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd

Hi, can you hear me now?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Yes.

Operator

Morning, all.

Charlie Campbell
Equity Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd

Yeah. Good, good. Thank you. Sorry, yeah, Charlie Campbell from Stifel. I had a couple of questions, please. So the first one just, I think follows on from Toby's question. Just wondering if you could sort of remind us roughly where you think U.K. volumes are, probably more for the market than for yourselves. So U.K. radiator volumes are compared to kind of recent peak, just to put some of those comments about kind of recovery paths into context. And then secondly, just wonder if you just give us a bit more color on the sort of the sort of actions you're taking to improve returns in SPA. Just wondering what's happening there and progress in recovering margins there. Thank you very much.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Okay. [On track]?

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

In terms of, I mean, looking at the kind of steel panel radiator volumes in the U.K., I guess. In terms of 2018, 2019, which is probably kind of the last kind of like-for-like comparable year, they were about 6.2 million, and for 2024, we expect the, in terms of market volumes, to be kind of definitely below, considerably below 5 million. So there's been a significant decline since that period in terms of overall market volume. In terms of Radiators S.p.A. , I mean, we always, there's quite a few bits and pieces to look at there, in terms of the, we're improving their product mix, in terms of they've introduced a new kind of kind of higher decarbonization-friendly product, which will enhance their margin.

We're still working with key customers there to kind of improve legacy contributions and commercial position with their, with some of their products. But also what we're doing primarily in the short term is to really leverage our kind of group experience and operational experience to improve the efficiency of their manufacturing. So they're the three, two, three things there, but it's similar to our Europe segment in general. With that business, it, it's, since we bought it, it has had a significant market decline, which has led to kind of volume decline and, and therefore, any kind of business in that scenario is, is kind of having that negative operational leverage impact. So we're hoping that with, with market recovery, or expecting with market recovery, that that business will kind of start to improve as a matter of due course, so.

Charlie Campbell
Equity Analyst, Stifel Nicolaus Europe Ltd

Yeah. Thank you very much. Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. Please go ahead.

Sam Cullen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP

Yeah, morning, everyone. I just got one kind of follow-up really. On the statistic that your average heat output is increasing by 7%, are you taking kind of a what you might call kind of a leading role in trying to curate that from the point of view of kind of plumbers and heating engineers and encouraging them to kind of upsize homeowners radiator size in advance of changing their heating system? So even if they're using a gas boiler and will stay using a gas boiler, but might have a heat pump in 10 years or so. Are you trying to get plumbers and heaters to increase output in advance of that change? Or are these changes that are happening as people are putting in different heating systems?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

I think what-

Sam Cullen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP

To the extent that you can tell that, I guess.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

I think what we're trying to do is to anticipate the direction of the market, and clearly new build next year goes to low carbon heating systems, primarily air source heat pumps. And what we've done is we've extended significantly our portfolio of products that are ideally suited for lower temperature heating systems. And these are K3 triple panel, triple convector products, 900 mm high, vertical products, and even electrical products. And we have seen huge interest in these, and they have been specified extensively across, you know, both RMI and new build. So I think we are probably slightly ahead of the curve when it comes to positioning our portfolio, and we have certainly seen the benefits of that in the first half of 2024, particularly in the U.K. and Ireland.

Sam Cullen
Senior Equity Research Analyst, Peel Hunt LLP

Okay, thanks.

Operator

Thanks. With this, I'd like to hand the call over for any webcast questions. Lee, over to you.

Great, thanks. We've got one question from the webcast, which is from James Workman at Canaccord. "What is the reason for Stelrad having not entered the Swiss market?

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

And the which market?

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

The Swiss.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Swiss market.

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

I've had a quick look at the stats for it, but I think the main issue here is that the market is very small. I think the entire market for radiators is 166,000, with only 4,000 steel panel radiators in that market, which, given that our core business historically is focused on steel panel, it is not a great market for us to go at.

Operator

Great, thanks. As there are no further questions, that concludes today's presentation. Thank you for joining.

Trevor Harvey
Group CEO, Stelrad Group PLC

Many, thanks.

Lee Wilcox
Interim Group CFO, Stelrad Group PLC

Thank you.

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