Good morning. My name is Drew, and I'll be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the Greencoat UK Wind Full Year Results presentation. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you would like to withdraw your question, please press star followed by two. I will now turn the conference over to Stephen Lilley. Please go ahead.
Great. Thank you. Good morning to everybody. This is our 11th Annual Results Presentation, going back to 2013. It's the last one that Laurence and I are going to do together, so that's rather sad. He and I are going to go through the results together, and then Matt will join us for Q&A at the end. So you'll hear from him a little bit as we get towards the back end. We'll probably take about half an hour, I think, to go through the results. Then back to Drew, Q&A as she sort of talked about, and then probably a few closing remarks from Laurence and I. So let's get started. If you want to turn onto page two. So 2023 highlights another strong year of cash generation.
We got paid a lot for production, high dividend cover, so in the 2.1 x, we've got a lot of reinvestment going on as normal. So 2 x dividend cover in total for life, if you like, but 2.1x last year. Because of that, I guess, so that means that even in an environment where discount rates have gone up quite substantially, and we'll cover those later, and we've had lower power prices into the forecast, NAV's been pretty stable throughout the year. At the end of the year, we finish up with 38% geared. We're very happy to have leverage on our business, given our return is so much higher than the cost of debt in the business. But 2023, to some extent, has been all about capital allocation, certainly towards the back end, and we've taken some actions as a consequence of that.
So the dividend we would have expected for 2023 of 8.76p, we decided to increase that to 10 and pay an additional GBP 29 million worth of dividends in the last few weeks. So the payment for the year, GBP 231-232 million of dividends. In terms of the increase for 2024, instead of the usual, which we've done 10 x, increased by December's RPI, which was 5.2%, we've increased it by 14.2%. So obviously, a big increase above RPI. For a number of reasons, wanted to get into double digits, just for branding, if you like, but probably more importantly, because NAV has grown so substantially since IPO, we wanted to get back to the 6% on NAV, which is what 10p is. Throughout the next few years, we have sort of calculated quite a bit over GBP 1 billion worth of excess cash generation.
That can be allocated into new assets, into buying back shares, into debt repayments, into increased dividends, whatever we want to do with that, but high coverage over 2x for five years. And then as we announced towards the back end of last year, getting started onto a GBP 100 million buyback programme, that is valuable for investors to do. In the year, we did nearly GBP 10 million worth of buybacks. A couple of days ago, by Tuesday night, we had done nearly GBP 20 million. So 20 + 29 is nearly GBP 50 million of money back to shareholders. And we'll carry on getting towards that GBP 100 million in the year, maybe pick up a little bit of the volume in the next day or two. In terms of delivery of strategy, NAV has continued to increase above RPI, so 64%. 52.
So that's the sort of couplet with the dividend, the RPI linkage, which will continue. We've done 4 investments in the year, GBP 821 million worth, but fairly significantly, which would cover GBP 174 million of NAV accretion, GBP 7.5. So we'll see that leverage recover in the NAV bridge as we get through that capacity over 2 GW in our 49 investments. Probably the most important line on this slide, if you're going to take one thing away, the return on NAV, 11%, 10-point-something to shareholders if you were buying the shares at NAV. Given where the shares are trading, that's more like 12%, which is somewhere in the region of 8% above a 10-year gilt. The risk-free rate, effectively, that's relevant. That's a massive return for the business like we have. Turning onto the next page, fairly quickly go through this.
So we now have 2 GW of capacity that we've talked about. We've produced 4 TWh of power in the year, 4.7 TWh of power in the year. Cash generation in total since listing, you can read, but significantly, GBP 938 million of dividends paid. So this was to the end of the year. And GBP 906 million of reinvestment. So this business is, yes, it's about a dividend that can increase with RPI.
It's also about reinvestment, and return is very important, as the strap line is there on the bottom. Carrying on through onto page 4, another line as this chart gets longer and longer. You can see the 2.1x covered, 2 x covered in total. With the special dividend inverted commas that we paid the last couple of weeks, we're over GBP 1 billion of dividends paid. In fact, GBP 1,017 million in 10 years and 9 months.
Given we started off at GBP 260 million size of an IPO, hopefully, that's a pretty decent story. Onto performance. Laurence, who's going to carry on, and I'll pick up later on.
Thank you. So the first of the sort of dividend cover slides, so slide 6, this is 2.1x dividend cover for the year explained. So GBP 406 million of cash generation, GBP 197 million of dividends paid. Below the line, sort of voluntary actions, if you like. We did invest GBP 821 million in the year, and we'll talk more about that later. We also invested nearly GBP 10 million, as Steve mentioned, in share buybacks. That's cash return to shareholders. And we increased debt by GBP 690 million. Now, the first thing you should notice about that is it's lower than the GBP 821 million invested. So you can see there in front of your eyes some of the reinvestment that Steve mentioned going on.
The other thing to note about the GBP 690 million of increased debt during the year, I think our gearing went up from 31%-38% in the year, for instance. 640 of that 690 was new debt, new term debt placed with existing banks and also bringing three new term debt lenders into the club, which is a sort of good demonstration of the appetite for the debt, and we'll talk more about that later. If we turn the page onto page 7, this is a deep dive into the net cash generation figure of GBP 406 million. I won't talk on this presentation about the bottom table. That's for analysts and connoisseurs. It just ties back the GBP 406 million net cash generation figure to the statutory accounts. Top table is a bit more interesting.
For instance, if you look at the revenue there of GBP 786 million and the operating expenses of GBP 199 million, you can see on display the 75% high EBITDA margin that the business runs at has remained fairly consistent over the years. It's all about the revenue. On the next line, tax, one thing to note is the GBP 63 million total tax comprises GBP 17 million of the Electricity Generator Levy , otherwise known as the windfall tax, paid in 2023, and then GBP 48 million of regular corporation tax. We're not expecting any further Electricity Generator Levy to be paid. That's the silver lining coming from power prices being down. And of course, we'll talk about power prices in more depth later. You'll also see just below that, included in our GBP 406 million of net cash generation, is almost GBP 50 million of SPV-level debt amortisation.
That can also be thought of as reinvestment in some ways, but clearly ranks ahead of the dividend. That's at Hornsea One. Just as a reminder, that's the only asset in our portfolio of 49 assets that has any debt at all at wind farm level. If we turn the page onto net asset value, slide 8, this is effectively the balance sheet. We've sort of covered P&L by way of those cash flows. This is the balance sheet. We've got the NAV bridge there represented in a couple of ways, the table for those who prefer numbers and reproduced in the RNS, but also a bar chart where we've blocked together some of the movements. So just looking at the bar chart first, you'll see that net cash generation dividends and obviously the 2.1 x dividend cover we've mentioned, and also depreciation.
That's just the assets being a year older, one year fewer cash flows feeding into the DCF. That's turning the handle. That's what's going to happen in one way or another every year, indeed, every quarter. That would have happened without any assumption changes. You can see that the NAV has increased just through that natural operation of the business, and obviously, that's through the reinvestment outweighing the depreciation. The next block we've decided to pick out are the investments, the NAV accretive investments, and the share buybacks. We invested GBP 831 million, GBP 21 million in the year, but that led to a GBP 174 million NAV accretion. That's GBP 0.075 in NAV per share terms. That clearly dwarfs the GBP 0.001 per share NAV accretion from the mere GBP 9.5 million that we invested in share buybacks.
As discussed, we've now invested almost GBP 20 million in share buybacks as of the 27th of February. So one can imagine that the cumulative NAV accretion is about 0.2 pence per share up to the 27th of February. It is relatively small beer. It will remain small beer even when we've done GBP 100 million worth of buybacks. As Steve alluded, perhaps the pace of buybacks will increase shortly. The final block there, the assumption changes. In essence, you've got power prices and increases in the discount rate which have weighed on the valuation, reduced the valuation during the year. Inflation, on the other hand, has been a partial offset for that. Inflation is good for this business. Sticking with inflation briefly, 9.7% is the increase in the ROC price that will occur on the 1st of April. That's driven by average RPI over 2023.
4% is the increase in our CFD prices that will occur on the 1st of April. That's driven by January 2024 CPI. They're big numbers. They're big increases that feed directly into the NAV. Inflation is good. We also set out there our forward-looking inflation assumptions. Apart from an RPI assumption of 4.3% as an average for 2024, they're our standard long-term assumptions. We did increase the discount rate by 1% during the year. That can be seen there in the NAV bridge. That reduced the NAV by GBP 263 million or GBP 11.4 per share. More on returns later. So if we turn the page to the next one, slide 9 on power prices, you can see there the graph of our pre-PPA discount and our post-PPA discount power price assumptions. These are laid out in numbers in detail in the annual report and in the R&S.
If you were to take an average over the first five years, the average price pre-PPA discount is GBP 61 per MWh, and the average price post-PPA discount is GBP 55 per MWh. We think that GBP 55 per MWh post-PPA discount stacks up pretty well against all our peers. And in general, we're very happy with our exposure to power prices. You'll know from IPO onwards, we've seen this as an asymmetric risk with much more upside than downside. Anyone who'd forgotten about that was reminded in 2022 in particular, where we saw prices of GBP 200 or GBP 300. And in terms of the downside, if you look at the dividend cover forecast over the next five years, just below the power price graph, you'll see that we're well covered down to, frankly, unreasonably low power prices, which will never occur in practice.
Every GBP 10 per MWh is worth about 0.2 on the dividend cover ratio. It's one thing you can draw from that table. If we turn the page to focus on returns on slide 10, as mentioned, we have increased the portfolio discount rate by 1% during the year. That's on top of a 1% increase in the previous year. So 2% is the increase from two years ago. That now leaves the levered portfolio IRR at 11%. Now, that's higher than where we were at IPO, quite rightly. One shouldn't be a slave to the capital asset pricing model. One has to take into account asset values as they trade in the market. But we would argue that it's slightly perverse for anyone to be sitting here arguing that their discount rate should not be higher than where we started 10 years ago.
So we did take our discount rate down, but we've now put it up more. And we sit at a very high return, 10% net to investors. That's on NAV. And as Steve mentioned, if you were to buy our shares at today's discount, that's probably near a 12%. It compares very, very well to the 4% 10-year gilt rate. And as a reminder, that 10% net total return to you guys is now paid 6% with growth of 4% on top. Slide 11, the next slide, shows that progression of NAV over time, in fact, versus RPI on this slide. You'll see inflation kicking in towards the right-hand side of that chart, both obviously in terms of the RPI line itself, but also our share NAV tracking that. We've pulled away from RPI, actually, in recent years because of our prudent exposure to power prices.
That is now reversing a little as we enter a lower power price environment. The next slide is the share price or total return, in fact. You'll see that we compare very well over time to both the FTSE 250 and the bond index. That's no surprise. To state again, 12% return available from buying our shares at today's price versus a 10-year gilt of 4%. Slide 13 is just a quick reminder of our debt structure. As mentioned, we did place GBP 640 million of new term debt last year. We'd expect to be placing some new debt later this year as we refinance the RCF and also probably GBP 150 million worth of term loans that mature between November this year and March next year. We did add three new banks to our lending syndicate last year, so ANZ, ABN AMRO, and Lloyds.
We've started discussions, of course, in relation to those refinancings. I think our best bet is that all of our near-maturing debt will be refinanced within the syndicate, you can see on this slide. An all-in cost of 4.6%. Obviously, the revolver is priced at nearly 7% currently. But versus investing in our own shares at 12%, I think Steve mentioned leverage is good for our business at this level and accretive to value. So handing back to Steve, he'll take you through the portfolio acquisitions and capital allocation.
Thank you, Laurence. So going onto page 15. Portfolio, it stands at the end of the year, the three transactions, the four transactions that we did, three up near Glasgow, so 14, 25, and 41. You can see them on the chart. Dalquhandy, Kype Muir Extension and South Kyle, and then London Array, obviously. They're London, funnily enough.
That takes us up to 2007 MW of capacity. We generate power for 2.3 million homes at this point, avoid 2.5 million tons of CO2. I probably won't spend a lot of time on 16. You can sort of see the split there, roughly half English, not far off half Scottish. And in that, I guess, you can sort of see a lot of the big offshore farms are English, and a lot of the big onshore farms at the top of our book are Scottish, as you can imagine, the offshore/onshore split between the two countries. Be interested to see how that develops over the next few years. If you carry onto 17, the transaction overview, the acquisition overview, nearly half of our transactions, certainly all four of them in 2023, were bilateral.
We expect, given the size that UK Wind is, that that will be a continuing theme, probably more like all of them or close to all of them as opposed to half of them going forward. In terms of stewarding capital properly, we do investments, obviously, have to be NAV accretive, but an additional hurdle, if you like, what are the alternative use of funds, buying back shares as Laurence has talked about, and we'll cover in a couple of minutes' time as well. Obviously, pretty valuable investments. So any transactions that we do, where we're trading, is obviously very relevant to that fact because of a different use of capital. Coming onto self-funding, we could complement the GBP 1 billion of cash flow coming out of the business over the next five years with disposals. We could do that. We could bring co-investment alongside.
There's a lot of people who want to do that. But ultimately, we have a lot of cash coming to the business that we could, all else being equal, put to new investments where there's opportunity going forward if that's the right thing to do in the circumstances we're in. Coming onto top right of page 17, you see the GBP 821 million stack. Two of those, I guess, the top two transactions we did at discount to NAV, they were transactions we entered into this year. South Kyle and Kype Muir Extension were legacy transactions and largely the driver of the GBP 174 million of accretion in value given power price increase committed to those transactions and those being delivered. Carry on down, you can sort of see the transactions in their full glory, probably not entirely.
Dalquhandy, the first one that we did, that is a project that we bought from BayWa, the sixth one that we bought from BayWa. We know them very well. It's a failed auction process. London Array, second that we did, a bilateral transaction we did with Ørsted. And then the South Kyle and Kype Muir Extension sort of towards the back end of the year, transactions that we committed to in 2020, coming through, getting into construction, and being delivered at significant value increase. Onto principal, I guess, with a LE, not an AL. Capital allocation, obviously, pretty important. The big driver, as we've talked about a few times now, the GBP 1 billion of excess cash flow coming into the business. What do we do with that? And we have a number of options, I guess, which we've tried to put down here.
The two on the left in solid line on the basis because we've done them, and the two on the right in dotted line because we could. In terms of dividends, we're going to continue increasing the dividend with RPI even given the 14.2% increase of this year. It will increase by December's RPI going forward. We have, obviously, as we've talked about earlier on, made an additional dividend payment of GBP 29 million the last couple of weeks because we could. So that's another way of giving money back to shareholders in the current environment. Obviously, we've committed to share buybacks. We think that they are valuable. We think that there's a generally, across the piece, people are sort of starting to think about that some or not. We think it's a very valuable thing to do.
We can get better return from doing that than, for instance, paying down debt, especially where our debt rates are versus our returns. So we'll continue to do that. We likely to pick up a little bit in terms of volume, so we do get through the GBP 100 million in the year. But as I said at the beginning, we've done GBP 20 million as of today in addition to that GBP 29 million of extra dividend that we paid. In terms of acquisitions and disposals, we are open to disposals, and that's something that we would actively sort of see as being a good thing to do. The reason, really, is not because we don't like what we've got and don't value that, it's because, actually, we see a big opportunity to be able to do good transactions.
The market is a very open market at the moment, and the ability to be able to make extremely NAV accretive transactions is absolutely there, obviously, in context of buying back shares and how do we do that, as we've talked about before. We wouldn't do them predominantly so that we can repay debt. We think that our debt rate is significantly below our cost of equity, significantly below that. And therefore, having a near 40% debt is a perfectly sensible thing for us to do in running our business. All it does is it prevents us. Transactions, effectively. So we wouldn't see the primary aim of disposing or even excess cash generation is to pay back debt. It's to help the business run more generally. If we carry on down onto other things before we sort of summarize, ESG, obviously, pretty important for us.
The one area that I'm not going to go down this chart given time, but the one area that we're starting to spend a bit of time on this ever-increasing list is corporate ratings. So we've sort of gone through that. We think it's probably quite important to do some of that. Gone are the days of being able to say, "We're a renewable energy generator. What's not to like about that?" And we need to go and do a little bit more work on getting rated because, obviously, people need to mechanically into their businesses. They need to report on these things. And therefore, we need to do that for them, not because we think in some ways there's anything good about it, because, obviously, we're a good thing.
If we carry on through in a bit more detail into environmental, again, 2.3 million homes powered, 2.5 million tons of CO2 avoided. As much we see the capacity as recycling capital into new builds, we're a very big part of that ecosystem. We don't think it's sensible for a business that is an infrastructure business to be developing and constructing a lot of capacity. Other people can do that and take that risk, and that return is obviously significantly higher than the return on infrastructure business. We'd be better to be the best part of that ecosystem, and there's a lot of volume of transactions that we could do in that. So we are a vital part of that recycling of capital. So build that happens, and therefore, more CO2 gets avoided because of the increase in capacity in the system. We obviously live with farmland.
You can sort of see that. Some doesn't have particularly good farmland at Bicker Fen there, but you get the idea on page 22. You've also got a transmission line there as well. Hopefully, that sits pretty well with farmland as well. And you can sort of see the TCFD reporting there as we have year on year. A fair bit of Scope 3 reporting in the year put on because we bought a fair bit. Again, we don't think Scope 3 particularly means anything. So carbon payback, probably pretty much more important, 5-6 months than we see in 8 months for offshore. If we carry on through onto social health and safety, so we see 4.4 million tons of community funding. You can sort of read the rest to some extent. Actively engaged in that, an important thing for us to get involved in.
Health and safety, that wasn't me climbing up a turbine, by the way, but I have done my climbing up onto offshore turbines course. I thought it was a good thing for me to do to try and get a feeling for what the dangers are of going offshore. That's a key thing. Transfer across onto platforms is an important thing. It could have been me, but it wasn't. But in terms of health and safety, obviously, pretty important thing that we do, external health and safety audits we've done across most of our businesses. We continue to do that. We have an expert board that we'll see on the next slide who is very much involved in that. Any incidents or any misses that are significant, we've gone through with Jim and with Martin, as we'll sort of see in a minute.
Going on to that, we thought it would be useful to, on page 24, to sort of go through this. Lucinda, obviously, took over as chairman, and Nick, who's obviously been in the press this year as the transmission tsar, becomes the SID. We've got Martin, who's been with us for a long, long time. Sadly, he's gone, though he seems to be very excited to be leaving on that photo, but I don't think he is. But we have him replaced with Jim, who was head of SSE Renewables for quite some time, so a very, very experienced operator. Delighted to have him on board. So effectively, one very senior operator replaced with another. So that's super, super helpful. Jim has also spent a lot of time offshore in development, construction, and operations. So he's a great person to come on.
And then finally, I suppose I think tomorrow, actually, Abigail joins from a sort of investment fund governance and sustainability background. So that's sort of drawing on some of the themes that we think sustainability is important. She'll help us a little bit with working through reporting going forward and best practice and how we do that really, really well, not just really well. In terms of the team, we thought it would be helpful to do this, especially as Laurence metamorphoses and grows a beard and has some hair, becomes Matt. But Matt's been involved, obviously, for quite some time as we put into R&Ss and delighted to have him on board with me shortly, as in tomorrow, formally at least. And then you sort of see the asset management team. I think we've got the first four, part of the Real Madrid Spurs Club in London.
And then going onto Valerio, Dickson and Cino, a very experienced team there, 90 years between them. Team that Fahima runs, 50 years accounting experience there. John Withers as well and Colin Wills, a very experienced team there. I think accounted over 200 years of experience in the team that we have here. Delighted to be leading this with Matt. And a great team to be delivering the business going forward. So coming onto summary, strong cash flow, high dividend cover, etc., that would come on from that. Lots of reinvestment, but also helps us in a year where discount rates because of interest rates have gone up substantially. Power prices have come off a little bit into the forecast. That number is robust because of that cash generation. 38% gearing at the end of the year. Very happy to be there.
It's incredible to us given the return we have on our business. We've given GBP 29 million back to investors taking the dividend for 2023 up to 10p as a one-off, if you like, but also increased it to 10p, a 14.2% increase above the 5.2% increase that would have been expected for December's RPI last year. That RPI linkage from 10p continues. We've got over GBP 1 billion of excess cash generation to be doing all sorts of things with over the next few years, being mindful of needing to buy back shares in the current environment. We've done GBP 20 million of that so far. We'll probably increase the rate of that going forward so we get through the GBP 100 million. NAV has increased 12% above RPI since listing.
In the last year, we've done GBP 174 million of accretion, if you like, in the GBP 821 million of acquisition, 7p per share in that. And then probably the punchline that we started with, but also we're going to finish with, the return to investors of over 10%. And actually, at the current share price, more like 12% is very big in comparison to the volatility in this business. It's a very simple, straightforward, proven business over 11 years that Laurence and I have built and Matt and I will continue with. And it isn't an appropriate return. It's too much of a return for this business that we would expect share prices with markets more normal, hopefully, and perhaps a little bit less multi-asset redemption going on than actually the value we'll be seeing going forward. And, Drew, I think that's probably us for now.
Do you want to take a flight and go to any questions, and we can sort of get started into that? That's taken us a little bit, we're about half an hour, so I was pretty accurate on that.
Sure. Thank you. We will now start today's Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. If you change your mind, please press star followed by two. Our first question today comes from Joe Pepper from RBC. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Great. Thanks, everyone. Thanks for the presentation. Just three from me, please. First one, obviously, 7.5p at NAV accretion after new investments, really positive results. It's capital permitting. I was interested to see how you're seeing the market environment for more bilateral transactions like this. I think secondly, you mentioned buybacks at GBP 100 million. In terms of NAV uplift, scope for increases there is fairly limited. Could you just please just outline some thoughts around the potential scope to increase that further? And then finally, you also spoke about opportunistic disposals. It'd be great if you could just outline the kind of asset characteristics that could mean you could expect to sell assets at a premium to NAV. And then I suppose linked to that, what kind of asset characteristics you'd look for, ways you could acquire them at discount to NAV for purposes of reinvestments. Thanks.
Yeah. The first one. Could you just repeat the first one?
Yeah. Sure. It's just around the NAV accretion from new investments and just in terms of how you see the market environment for more bilateral transactions and further potential NAV increases going forward on that front?
Yeah. So I'm going to throw it straight to Matt, actually, and throw him in at this point. Do you want to talk about that? And I'll pick up buybacks and Laurence on disposals.
Thanks, Steve. And thanks, Joe. So as Steve outlined in the presentation, it's really a matter for capital allocation. So what we have to do is look at the resources that we have at the time and what at the time is the best use of capital. Buybacks, of course, are more relevant than they have been given where our share price is. So we need to assess the landscape as it arrives. But that said, I think the market opportunity for us is vast. I think there's a bit less capital chasing assets than there has been in the past. And I think the scope of bilateral transactions, given who we are and our track record of delivering and executing, is really positive.
I'd be quite positive on that, but it does sit in the set of considerations around capital allocation at the time we come to make the decision.
Okay. And in terms of buybacks, yeah, I mean, we set out GBP 100 million a year. We think that's probably the right size. It could have been slightly higher. It could have been slightly lower. To some extent, what's the point in doing this? We're not necessarily trying to drive share price. We're trying to do good investments. And therefore, we have been I think we've bought back an average of 14% below NAV.
So that's pretty NAV accretive. And then it obviously drives the sort of value that you saw sort of going forward. Is there ability to increase that going forward? I think we're committed to doing the GBP 100 million at the end by the year in the year. So I would anticipate we'll do that. And then let's see where we are in whatever it would be eight months' time about what we do next year.
Our premise, I guess, I thought, is that actually, if you look at our return, we shouldn't even be trading at a discount. But we are. We'll obviously take that into account, Laurence, in terms of our disposal.
Yeah. We don't feel under any pressure to dispose of anything. As Steve and I have both suggested, we're very comfortable with our 38% gearing and the cost of debt that goes with that. Absolutely accretive to returns given the returns in the underlying. So why might we dispose of assets? Well, the main reason is to create opportunity. We are relatively limited. We only have GBP 1 billion to play with over the next 5 years. We could add to that partly through co-investing with partners, as Steve mentioned, but also through selective disposals. So I would see the main reason for making any disposals, frankly, as sort of refreshing the opportunity, giving us optionality to look at those NAV accretive acquisitions that Matt talked about. I wouldn't necessarily see them as linked.
I don't think you should expect to see an announcement that says, "Sold one asset, bought another one on the same day." Don't take that away as an incorrect conclusion from what I'm saying. We also wouldn't sell assets at an undervalue. Clearly, we think these assets are worth what they're worth, and that feeds into our NAV. So you should expect to see disposals at or above the NAV level. In terms of which assets we might look at, who knows? Whatever buyers are interested in. There are some buyers that can't compete in auctions or, frankly, don't have the access to drum up bilateral opportunities themselves and yet have large amounts of capital to deploy. I'm talking multi-hundred millions, not the sort of small, older assets in the GBP 20 million or so range. It's not much point to selling some assets for GBP 20 million.
There could be Asian buyers. There could be other buyers that find it difficult to compete in auctions or generate bilateral opportunities. More likely to be the offshore assets, perhaps. More likely to be our larger assets that would have a side benefit of sort of reducing portfolio concentration. But again, I don't think we have an issue with that. Our largest single asset is Hornsea One, and that's only 16% of our portfolio.
Do you want to take the tape? That's good, Joe.
That's great. Thanks, Laurence.
Just to remind everyone, if you would like to ask a question, please press star followed by one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Connor Finn from Barclays. Your line is now open. Please go ahead.
Morning, all. One from me on your generation performance. So it's been below budget by an average of 10% over the last six years. Have you made any adjustments to your projection to year gone forward?
I'll take that one. Thanks, Connor. We haven't made any substantial adjustments. We may have made minor adjustments here or there. Typically, for sort of known physical events, e.g., if we've implemented an upgrade, obviously, we would reflect that. There might be some wake losses. For instance, we've reduced the Hornsea One P50, I think, a little bit because of wake losses from Hornsea Two as that's come online. So apart from minor adjustments here or there, no, we haven't rebased them. Remember, most of our P50s are based on operational data. They're not based on computer models. So they are factual in terms of the correctness of the assumptions from converting wind into energy. You just read the meter. That is how much the wind farm produces when the wind's blowing at, say, 10 meters per second from the southwest.
A lot of data points there, 50,000 sets of 10 minutes, which is typically the data packet in the course of one year, 100,000 data points over two years, etc. That is then correlated with modern best practice regression analysis techniques against 30-year wind datasets. That gives us an extreme confidence in our P50 assumptions. The standard deviation of wind strength or average mean wind speed year to year is about 6% per annum. So over the course of our 11-year history, you'd expect three or four years to lie outside of that, one-third of outcomes. If you actually look at our table, which is reproduced in the R&S and annual report, you'll see that three years out of the 11 have sat without that 6% standard deviation. So it's exactly as you would expect statistically. There's nothing statistically significant in the numbers.
Climate change is often the sort of next question that people throw in this area. There's no scientific consensus as to whether climate change will lead to higher wind speeds or whether it will lead to lower wind speed here in the U.K. The reason there's no scientific consensus is there's no evidence to date for any trends. It's one of the reasons there's no scientific consensus. So we're very comfortable with our P50s. Happily, over 30 years, even if wind was to trend downwards as a result of climate change, it's not really going to show up in that 30-year time horizon. On the other hand, equally happily, the 30 years is absolutely long enough to smooth the sort of interannual variations. As I say, there's nothing statistically significant in the table that we've reproduced in the R&S and in the annual report.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We have no further questions in the queue, so I'll hand back over to our host, Stephen Lilley, for any closing remarks.
Thank you, Drew. I look forward to Iain Scouller . Maybe he's not on the line, but maybe he can give me a call separately. Thank you for joining. Obviously, this year has been an interesting year. Lots of change, if you like. Market's been difficult, but discount rates, power prices down. But we have a fundamentally strong business with lots of cash generation that you can sort of see there. 2 x covered, 5 years, GBP 1 billion, RPI linkage, NAV increasing above RPI, all of that, really significant business strength, if you like. And so we're delighted with that. The most important thing for us, I guess, to keep talking about is the return GBP 938 million of dividends but also GBP 906 of reinvestment on NAV, 10% back to shareholders. So hugely significant, if you like.
Before I finish, I was going to sort of just touch on Laurence, and I think he may want to say something in a minute. I was slightly amused to find out that the average marriage lasts 12 years. Laurence and I have been going 14 years. I think we've done quite well. He's been a great partner, and I've enjoyed working immensely with him. He's not going anywhere, sadly. He's still in the same office, but I'm looking forward to taking the legacy that he and I have had together with Matt, who will also be a great partner. Thank you, Laurence. I know you want to say something as well. Hand over to you to finish.
Thank you, Steven. Thanks to others online in effect for affording me this opportunity. As Steve said, 14 years working together, 11 of that since the fund was listed. I've also immensely enjoyed my time. I think we've built a great business. We've worked with some great people, both on our team and on the board. I've enjoyed talking to the investors. It is tricky times in terms of the external market driven by factors that are not fundamental to UKW as a business. I think it's a great investment at a 12% return if you were to buy it at today's share price and clearly stacks up extremely well on a risk-adjusted basis about pretty much any other investment one can make at the moment. I'm pleased with what I've done.
I'll still be around, as Steve mentioned, not just in the same office but also on the investment committee. And I sit on Schroders Greencoat Valuation Committee together with Matt, actually. So I'll still be here, but perhaps you'll see a lot less of me over the coming period. So good luck, everyone, with the future. And Steve and Matt will take it forward from here. Thank you.
Drew, thank you both this morning. I look forward to speaking to some of you with Matt over the next few weeks. Thanks.
That concludes today's Greencoat UK Wind Full-Year Results Presentation. You may now disconnect your line.