Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our H1 results. Before Margherita and I have a chance to answer your questions, I thought I'd just touch on four key points from the presentation. Firstly, in the H1 , we delivered a resilient financial performance. You saw that our group service revenue remained constant at 2.5%, although we experienced a slowdown in Europe, offset by stronger performance in Turkey and Africa. EBITDA moderately declined at EUR 7.2 billion when we take into account the significant one-off adjustment of TI assessment in Italy last year. The underlying decline was due to the performance in Germany.
We remain confident in delivering our full year adjusted EBITDA within our original guidance range, although higher energy costs in the H2 means that we will be towards the lower end. We're also confirming our interim dividend at EUR 0.045, in line with our annual commitment of a minimum of EUR 0.09. Second, we're making good progress on our shorter-term operational and portfolio priorities, which include obviously significant improvements in IT and networks within Germany, alongside an improved commercial momentum. Establishing the joint venture in Germany for our Fiber to the Home build. Then last week, we obviously went out with our towers transaction, which achieved our three strategic objectives at an attractive price of 26x EBITDA. Third, given the current macroeconomic environment we face, we have taken a series of group-wide actions, predominantly in two areas.
First of all, pricing. We've executed very systematically across our European footprint. 11 markets out of 12 have pricing actions. Seven have a CPI or inflation-linked formula. In terms of cost, we've obviously made a lot of progress over the last three-four years under Margherita's leadership across the business, and we wanna continue that. We came out with a new target of additional EUR 1 billion over the next three and a half years. That will be achieved through streamlining, simplification of the group moving forward. Fourth, while our short-term focus remains very much on dealing with the current conditions with the right level of urgency required, we also wanna make sure that we remain focused on the long-term growth potential of the company and investing appropriately behind that.
Our European consumer business, which represents about half of the business, we highlight in the presentation the formula that we have done in the U.K., which is part of our overall European proposition roadmap and has led to very significant growth in the U.K. business. Around 18 months ago, we made the conscious decision of investing beyond connectivity for business, and you're seeing good service revenue growth in our business segments and over 20% growth in the beyond connectivity areas. In Vodacom, again, good growth rates and investing behind financial services, which again are growing over 20% year-over-year. That combination of actions, immediate short-term actions, long-term investment for growth, we believe on top of our strong financial position in terms of our balance sheet, ensures that we're well-positioned for our midterm growth ambitions and sustaining improvements in shareholder returns.
On that, we will hand over for Q&A.
Lovely. Thank you very much. Our first question today comes from Jakob Bluestone from Credit Suisse. Jakob, please go ahead.
Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I had a question on Vantage. If you could maybe just talk us through the sort of the logic of IPO-ed it last year and then taking it private a year later. What's kind of the thought process underlying that? What's changed? And then if you can maybe also just explain where you are in terms of capital allocation post that closing, from the debt reduction you've highlighted. You know, within the foreseeable future, it looks like you could end up below your leverage floor. Let's say below the 2.5-3x . How would you think about using any excess cash? Could we get a buyback, or do you think you need to invest more into the business? Thank you.
Thank you, Jakob. Morning. I'll let Margherita handle maybe the second part of that question. Maybe just in terms of logic, you know, clearly, the IPO was a really important step for us to establish independence for the tower company. That was really important to then accelerate our organic growth potential through third-party selling. You know, of course, we did the 1&1 transaction. There were others as well. I think primarily it was that independence, but the second reason was just establishing a reference valuation for our towers. Now, when we IPO-ed, we took the view that we saw even more potential longer term, and therefore we constrained the amount that we actually sold, so we constrained it to quite a small amount being 18%.
I think I was vindicated with our transaction last week, which was highly attractive at 26x. I think a private vehicle now is appropriate, and it's appropriate because we can have true co-control governance within a private setting. We can also set the right capital structure to really ensure that we can get behind not only the organic growth which we were executing, but also the inorganic opportunities. The market is highly fragmented, and there is a real opportunity, I think, to capture and consolidate the market. Therefore, we really needed to have a private vehicle to be able to do that. Of course, we have two strong investors behind us with a lot of experience and expertise and obviously strength in depth in terms of financial capability to achieve that goal. I think we share the vision, we share the ambition. I'm very excited about that collaboration moving forward.
On capital allocation, as you mentioned, we have always indicated that our near-term priority would be deleveraging, and I think this is proving the right approach in the current macroeconomic conditions. You should expect us initially to allocate the proceeds towards further strengthening our balance sheet. We will form a full view on this once the transaction will have completed and the final proceeds will be set. Just as a reference point on the proceeds, the way to look at it is assuming all the minorities tender their shares and the consortium reaches its target of 50% ownership, as intended, then we are talking about EUR 5.8 billion. Once we will have completion, we will reassess the situation at that point.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you very much. Our next question today comes from Robert Grindle from Deutsche Bank. Robert, please go ahead.
Thanks. Good morning, both. Thanks for the jam-packed presentation this morning. You made clear why German EBITDA trends will improve in the H2 , due in part to ARR phasing. But I'd like to get some more clarity there. Are the operational challenges now fully behind you in Germany, and what do the commercial trends look like from here? In particular, what does it mean for service revenue growth? How is trading in the current quarter, please? I think the new prices didn't land yet, but perhaps you could put me straight on that. A bit more color in Germany, please.
Yeah, morning, Robert. I'll let Margherita maybe handle, you know, outlook, et cetera. Let me just talk to the operational improvements. We have completed all of our remedial actions on both IT and network that we set out to achieve on schedule. If I was gonna give you some color to that so that, you know, you say, "Okay, I understand what you mean by that." I would say, first of all, our front-end systems that were originally not stable have now reached a greater than 99.7% availability, so we're very happy with the stability of those front-end systems. We've also got our IT trouble tickets, so where we have issues, down to normalized levels. We have reengineered the important sort of frontline processes in terms of recontracting customers within our new systems.
Our network is now operating since June against our quality KPI metrics that we've set out to achieve. I would say that we've been able to double the speed of the uplink in the heavier data areas segments for a more attractive product for our customers. I sort of stand back and I just go through the checklist. We've hit the whole checklist. I would say now we're much more in the normal cycle of upgrading our IT and processes moving forward. I'm also pleased with obviously our continued commercial regaining of momentum. If you like, the commercial engine is back in Germany, and that gave us the confidence to do the pricing action that you refer to. Maybe if you want to give more color.
Yes. In terms of outlook, in your multi-part question, I would cover service revenue, commercial performance, and pricing and how it's landing. Starting from service revenue first, we should expect a lower performance on service revenue in the H2 compared to Q2. This is driven essentially by two reasons, one more mechanical and one relating to mobile ARPU. I'll take first the mechanical part, which is related to effectively what we would call tough comps in the prior year. You may remember that last year in Q3, we called out a peak in B2B revenues, which can be quite lumpy sometimes. In Q4, we then called out some service revenue year-end adjustment related to things like contracts with service providers. Of course, this will not repeat in the H2 this year.
In terms of ARPU trend, we have called out a shift in channel mix in mobile. As we exited the pandemic, and we saw a re-acceleration of volume movements with the new telco law, we have seen a higher weight for indirect channels and service providers, therefore with a lower ARPU, and we expect this trend to continue in the H2 . However, as you look beyond this year into FY2024, we expect structural service revenue re-acceleration for the two points you were raising earlier, which are commercial performance and pricing. On the commercial front, as a result of the action that Nick was highlighting, you have seen us now growing for two quarters in mobile and having effectively stabilized our cable base in fixed. We can count on this stabilization to improve our trends going forward.
We will have the pricing benefits. On pricing, two moves. Actually, one has attracted a lot of attention, but I think they are both important. First of all, we have raised prices on the front book in fixed by EUR 5-EUR 10, and this was against the increase on upload speeds that we could offer to our customers. We have also reduced the promotional intensity in mobile. This is important because, if you were looking at our inflow ARPU as it stands today, in the month of November, for example, our mobile acquisitions are coming in at a price point net of promotions, which is above 5% higher than what it used to be before.
ARPU support in both fixed and mobile, which together with the better commercial dynamics will support a re-acceleration into FY2024. I think we can say that for us, fundamentally, Germany remains a strong market.
Absolutely.
Thank you. Okay, thank you very much. Our next question today comes from David Wright from Bank of America. Please go ahead.
Hello, guys. I hope you can hear me. I've clicked all the right buttons. Just a couple of quick questions. The first is just on inflation linked to pricing, and I see you are rolling that out across markets progressively now, and I think it was quite encouraging that, you know, Telecom Italia last week followed in what has been certainly one of the toughest markets. I guess my question is, how much of that can we think about dropping through to actual net growth? I know in the U.K. they've talked about, you know, sub 50% of the gross price increases coming through, because you obviously have to manage the customer base, et cetera.
I guess my first question is if you could talk about any early indications of how much you think you can monetize from CPI-linked price rises. Just my second question that I'm gonna sneak in there, Margherita, we saw Telefónica putting through a new hybrid yesterday, paying over 7%. I think you've got EUR 2 billion due in October next year. I think you've got about EUR 10 billion or so in the hybrid stack, so you could obviously look to take bond financing on, I think, 10% of that. You know, are you comfortable, you know, sort of thinking about effectively refinancing at sort of, you know, 7%+ levels right now? Those two questions. Thank you, guys.
Morning, David. Can I suggest I'd like to just touch on the strategic elements of pricing, and then maybe Margherita can answer more directly, your question. Because I think the important thing is that clearly energy costs and higher rates of inflation is putting the sector under pressure in Europe. There's only so much that we can do on cost. In the end, pricing is a critical component of the formula for every operator, and I think you're gonna see that consistently across the board. We have advocated the CPI model because we believe that that is more transparent for the customer and also is simpler for us to manage in our back-end systems, which of course every operator should be trying to achieve, versus a say, repricing model, which adds a lot of complexity continuously in the back end.
That's why we propose CPI pricing. I would also say I think it leads to a more sustainable model for the industry as well, as we've seen in the U.K., in terms of being more investment-led model, going forward. I would say if you stand back, we obviously, in every market, depending on the quality of our asset, set out a strategic positioning of our pricing versus our peers. Yeah. Brand by brand, mobile, fixed, et cetera, converged. We operate against, if you like, that strategic framework by market. All I'd say on pricing is we don't operate in isolation. Clearly, we try and take all the proactive steps, both front book and back book, to advance for the sector. Of course, it's dependent on competitor moves as well. I just wanted to sort of provide that framework before the answer.
Yes. I would say, considering all the actions we have taken so far, we are looking at a material impact on European service revenue growth next year. We have said actions in 11 out of 12 markets. Out of these, seven are CPI embedded in the contracts. I'll just cover quickly what we have done in the big four markets for reference. We've just talked actually about fixed broadband and mobile in Germany. In the U.K., CPI is now well established. In Spain, we have just introduced CPI in our contracts in September, October, and we will apply our first increase on that basis in Q4. In Italy, we have migrated, as you know, almost 5 million of prepaid customers towards a simplified range of tariff plans in an ARPU-accretive way.
Taken in aggregate, as I was saying, potential of very material impact on European service revenue with the actions we have in place so far. We are talking about 1%-2% impact, incremental impact to service revenue growth next year. Clearly you flagged an important point, which is the potential for erosion when there is a difference between front book and back book as time moves on. This is also why I'm giving you a range. It includes our estimate of that. It's important to say that, as Nick was flagging, we are very keen to maintain alignment as Vodafone between front and back, and we've been successful in doing so in fixed broadband, as we have seen in the U.K.
When even there is more competition on the front book, again, U.K. mobile would be a case of that, we manage to retain a proportion of the benefit over time through the upgrade cycle through our CVM. So you do get a net positive impact, I'd say in all circumstances, but important to maintain alignment wherever possible. On your question on financing instead, this gives me an opportunity actually to reiterate what I believe is a really strong position in our balance sheet today, because as you know, our rates are 100% fixed on 2.5%. Our maturities are very long, over 11 years. I think it's one of the strongest position across sectors in the whole of Europe, which puts us in a good position to deal with the current environment.
You mentioned the hybrid maturities, and in our presentation we show year by year what's due for refinancing. I'd say we have plenty of time to decide what to do because we are talking about January 2024. Then also because the hybrids themselves have long maturities, we are not talking about very significant amounts. In the next three years, it's around, I think EUR 3 billion, if not EUR 3.5 billion, on which we will have also flexibility given that we have now started the journey of deleveraging also with the support of the towers transaction. I think we are in a very strong position in terms of interest cost outlook.
I think it's fair to say. We made the call to prioritize deleveraging. We said we wanted to get to the lower end of our range, and we've been executing consistently against that prioritization. In the current macro environment, I think that was the right decision.
Thank you.
Okay, thank you very much. Our next question today comes from Andrew Lee from Goldman Sachs. Andrew, please go ahead.
Yeah. Good morning, guys. I was trying to follow up on the German recovery confidence, following on from Robert's questions. Obviously, you've highlighted your confidence in that recovery, but, you know, the share price and, you know, investor feedback is showing investors don't share that confidence. One of the key things is, while the KPIs look better this quarter, investors just fear that that's been paid for by higher acquisition costs, you know, customer acquisition costs and with it, you know, coinciding with the 7% decline in EBITDA. I wonder if you just give us a bit more color to explain your confidence on the German commercial momentum.
I know you talked through the things that you've sorted out to put it back on track, but what are you seeing in terms of evidence of it being back on track? Maybe the run rate of KPIs in October before your price rises or any other data points would be helpful there. I guess just the second question, which is really a follow on from that, what are we gonna see as investors in terms of evidence of that commercial momentum over the next couple of quarters? Because you've highlighted that the tougher comps mean organic service revenue growth is gonna be weaker in Germany in the H2 of the year. What can we look for that would drive home investor confidence over the next six months? Thank you.
Maybe do you want to talk to ARR and the view and just a bit of an outlook, and then maybe I'll just take it up a notch in terms of what I think key drivers are.
Sure. In terms of ARR in Germany, it's important to consider that we are comparing ourselves in half one this year to a H1 of the year last year, which still adds the weight, in a way, of some pandemic restrictions at the time. Since then, we have seen an acceleration of the volume movements into half two last year with the new Telecommunications Act, which has then continued into the H1 of this year. When you look at the impact on the P&L of ARR and on I&A, you need to consider that there has been a volume increase. Pandemic restrictions in a simplified way to post-Telecommunications Act intensity of volume now, so simply more volumes.
Together with the additional volumes, we also add, and you see it in the other revenue line of the P&L, a handset mix shift towards higher tiers. We've had very successful iPhone promotions in the last quarter, and this has brought, of course, higher ARPU customers in, but also, more volumes of handsets which have impacted both higher revenues and ARR. As we move into the H2 of the year then, because phasing is so important, ARR will not be a drag to EBITDA anymore in Germany. You know that we are talking about a much better EBITDA performance as we move into the H2 compared to the H1 .
This is because we will not see this drag anymore because we will compare ourselves to a half year, which had already the impact of the commercial intensity of the new Telecommunications Act. Also, we had some one-offs last year that supported EBITDA in the first half. That, of course, won't recur. You should expect a better outcome for the H2 and for the full year.
Yeah. Andrew, if I was just painting the slightly bigger picture. First of all, you've seen all our competitors' results. Germany remains a really attractive market, probably one of the best performing European markets, of which we have a strong asset in that market. We put our hands up and said we dropped the ball on the new telecom law implementation. The remedial action's been taken. It's behind us now, and you're seeing our commercial momentum regain. That's what gave us the confidence to do the pricing changes that we proposed. If we didn't have confidence, we wouldn't have done that. Maybe in the next quarter there's a relative performance adjustment because of the pricing action we'll see. If we look through that, clearly we're regaining commercial momentum.
got very much the management team focused now on the proposition roadmap for Q4 and next fiscal year, which we are finalizing in terms of regaining focus on convergence, cross-selling capability that we've been constrained on up until now because of the remedial action that we've been taking. Also structurally, I'd just say, look, we have a really good mobile network. It's performed well versus DT. You've seen the gap over time close. You've seen a gap maintained against TF. You go across to the fixed network side. We have an upgrade program on the fixed cable network, and at the same time, we announced the Fiber to the Home on a targeted basis for housing associations.
I'm really pleased with the combination of both of those things, the cable upgrade program that we've communicated plus the FTTH program, because together it's given real confidence to housing associations. What we've seen is a real acceleration in terms of recontracting with us. We haven't lost one single significant housing association this fiscal year because of our communication of how we're advancing our network. So I just look at it, yes, there was a ball dropped, management changes were done. We had a very clear plan, executed through with group support of the Germany operation. Yeah. Now we move back onto the front foot moving go-forward.
Okay. Thank you very much, Andrew. Our next question today comes from Emmet Kelly from Morgan Stanley. Emmet, please go ahead.
Yes. Good morning, Nick and Margherita. Good morning to everybody else as well. My question please is just sticking with the phasing of the EBITDAs throughout the year. If you look at your guidance at the group level, you've delivered -2.5% in H1. You're targeting, I think, just over 1% for the full year. It looks like 5% EBITDA growth potentially in the H2 of the year. Clearly, all of that cannot be Germany. There has to be some other dynamics there as well. Could you maybe say a few words please, on the other kind of shifts in EBITDA growth as we go into the H2 of the year? In particular, if you could reference Italy, where EBITDA was down, I think, 6.5% in the H1 of the year. Thank you.
Sure. I think when you look at the year-on-year elements of EBITDA, it's important once again to consider the year we are comparing ourselves to because there were a couple of elements in last year's performance that are relevant then to the growth rates themselves. In the H1 we had one-off settlement specifically in Italy, which flattered our EBITDA performance last year, and we called out. Then instead into the H2 of the year, we had what we were discussing before in Germany in terms of, if you want, reacceleration of the commercial intensity into the H2 .
These elements are relevant when you look at the guidance we are giving for a significant reacceleration in half two, despite, and this may be a little bit counterintuitive, the fact that the energy cost drag will be higher in the H2 than it has been in the H1 because of course, the pre-Ukraine hedges that we had in place are rolling off. The reason why we will have this phasing of EBITDA growth is that we will have three big swings between half one and half two, which are actually broadly of similar size. You're right, it's not all about Germany. The first swing, as you may have already seen yesterday, is related to Vodacom.
Vodacom EBITDA was marginally down in half one, and we expect good growth into the H2 , also supported by the dynamics in the international markets. That's number one. Number two is ARR. The drag we have suffered from in half one won't recur in half two. We have covered this already. Number three, it's clearly our OpEx initiatives, where we are accelerating. You heard about the new EUR 1 billion cost target, 2022-2026, and these will also be loaded towards the H2 of the year. Net-net, as you mentioned, we have guided to an EBITDA growth at the lower end of our original range. The only reason why I'm using the word lower end is because of energy movements. Between May, when we issued our guidance, and today, the energy drag has increased, which is why we are zooming in into the lower end. It means growth definitely in the H2 .
Thank you.
Sorry, you asked about Italy. Actually, I forgot to answer specifically on Italy.
That's all right.
The EBITDA dynamic is very much, once you exclude the settlement, very much driven by the top line. I'm afraid this will continue into the H2 . Overall European group will have the dynamics we have just talked about.
Super. Thank you, Margherita.
Thank you very much. Our next question today comes from Sam McHugh from Exane. Sam, please go ahead.
Guys, yeah. Excuse me. Your medium-term targets are for mix of the EBITDA and free cash flow. Obviously we've seen a 1.5% underlying decline in EBITDA and guidance for this year for free cash flow to fall 4%. How realistic is that medium-term outlook? Then post the Vantage Towers sale, you know, is the 2.5x-3x leverage range still appropriate? How does this all make you think about your kind of dividend coverage? What would you say to shareholders who may be worried that we're heading towards another dividend cut? Thanks.
Shall I take the midterm outlook and the leverage range? In terms of midterm outlook, I'd say fair to say that when we set our ambitions 18 months ago, we were coming out of the pandemic, and we were looking forward to a more normal economic environment. Unfortunately, 18 months on, we are far from that, and we've had, particularly in our case, a significant shock coming from energy prices, with also the broader inflation. I'd say until that environment normalizes, we will not be able to deliver what were all our midterm goals within the timeframe that we have flagged. That's certain. We are taking action, however, on a structural front, as we were discussing earlier, on both pricing and costs.
We have ahead of us a big peak of energy costs to go through, as you have seen from our presentation. If you set that peak aside, and as we have already discussed, it will have to reverse, you should think about it as the actions we are undertaking have been designed in such a way that energy cost peak aside, they will maintain us on a good growth trajectory. You also referenced briefly the growth of this year. I think just one quick point worth highlighting, as we did in May, there is a big swing in tax costs between last year's free cash flow and this year free cash flow. It's gonna be EUR 500 million.
When you calculate growth rates, you need to keep that in mind because of simply a technical deferral of a cash tax payment in Germany. Finally on the leverage range, I can only reiterate the points we mentioned earlier. We need to wait until actually we complete the Vantage transaction, and at that point, we will review our position overall in terms of capital allocation.
Yeah, Sam, maybe just to frame how the board would think about the dividends. We have a minimum commitment of EUR 0.09. That was part of our midterm ambition. We have been prioritizing deleveraging. We have gone past the peak of 5G spectrum and Liberty integration, so that will support free cash flow. We are doing a number of portfolio actions that will materialize synergy benefits, et cetera, if we complete everything that we want to complete. Clearly, in the near term, we have an energy hit, but we have to look through that. When we look through it and let's say the exceptional inflation, and we have the balance sheet effectively to absorb that, if we look through it, management still remains on the ambition of the midterm growth. We see the dividend intrinsically linked to that profile.
Fair play, guys. I like my line apparently, but thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. Our next question today comes from Polo Tang from UBS. Polo, please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for taking the question. It's just on your German fiber JV with Altice. You've decided to deploy fiber to around 7 million homes or around about a quarter of your German cable footprint. However, do you think you need to upgrade more of your German footprint to fiber? Can, you know, you maybe just talk through why you've just targeted the housing association areas? Can you maybe talk through what you're seeing in terms of NPS score trends for subscribers who take cable and then the subscribers who take VDSL broadband? Maybe just a quick follow-up on Germany about energy. How do you think about the impact of potential government support in terms of how that may or may not impact your EUR 500 million headwind that you've outlined for next year?
Okay, I'll let Margherita cover energy. Look, we have got good engagement with the housing associations. I would say that, as I said before, we've gone through our cable upgrade plans and the fiber build plans, and it's not like every housing association wants fiber, okay? 'Cause in the end, many of them don't want the disturbance associated with, if you like, upgrading to fiber, so they're just as interested in the cable upgrade plan over time. There's either disruption on the build outside the building and then, of course, there's disruption in the building at the same time. They would really prefer to time that for general refurbishment of buildings, which are longer cycle times.
I think the combination of these two things is providing them a lot of clarity on our roadmap, proving that we really are the natural partner of choice because we can now offer them both, options and over a long timeframe. I would say that we targeted the fiber build to the housing associations because frankly, the economics are attractive for us to do that. Also, as we do that, we obviously have additional build around the areas. These tend to be more highly dense areas that we are targeting. We've gone through region by region through Germany, where we want to build with Altice, and therefore we have exclusivity in those areas. I think what many people are not appreciating is the importance of partnering with Altice is because they had a significant construction entity.
That entity has built over 18 million homes passed in six countries over two decades. What we wanted to do, and they've already started building in Germany, and what we wanted to do was purpose the build engine onto our build, prioritizing how we want to roll out fiber to our housing associations and areas. What I'd say is it was more to do with us having a targeted build, taking the capacity in the market. By the way, we're also talking to a number of other construction companies to supplement the Altice build because they're doing the majority, but there's still some residual that we will be building, and those are well advanced as well.
What I'd say is that when I look at your point of NPS, because we've been upgrading our network, I can't point to any particular NPS stats at this point that would suggest a big deviation. Certainly with our experience in Spain as an example, where we have been having fiber completely overbuilt with cable offering both, we haven't seen any difference at all on the NPS. I think this is just about high quality. It's a hybrid cable fiber network, so by definition, it has fiber in it. I think it's about offering a high-quality network either through that mode or total fiber.
On energy, we have quantified the headwind for next year at EUR 500 million in our presentation, and this is based on current spot prices and doesn't have any government intervention benefit in it. Why is that? There is a wide range of government actions that are being discussed all across Europe. You mentioned the German plan, which is definitely the largest, but other countries are also working on anything from tax rebates all the way to the more material price caps. We are not including this in our forecast at the moment because there is still a substantial level of uncertainty. If you take the German measures, they still need to pass through state aid evaluation from the EU. We are not yet clear on what conditions may be attached to them, so we remain cautious at this stage.
It could be material. If we talk about Germany alone, it could be over EUR 100 million benefit to our P&L with the type of measures which are being discussed at the moment.
Great. Thanks.
Thank you very much. Our next question today comes from Nick Delfas from Redburn. Nick, please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks very much. Just two questions on revenue growth, if I could. The first one's on business. Slide six, you did 3.4%. Could you talk a little bit more about the components of that growth? Is that all connectivity? How much of it is software or services? Then the second question's around base management and lifting prices on the back book. I think I'm right in saying that there is no plan at the moment, for the most part, to lift prices in Germany, specifically on existing subscribers. The price increases you're talking about are all new subscribers only? Thanks.
Nick, morning. Let me just answer the base one 'cause it's simple, and then I'll let Margherita maybe talk to the business revenue composition. You're right. At the moment, it's front book changes that we've made. I would say that Germany in the past, in terms of cable, has put through price increases quite consistently every year, and on that quite successfully. We have not announced anything at this point, and it wouldn't be appropriate to talk about anything in the future on pricing at the moment. However, clearly we are assessing our options.
On the service revenue growth in business, 3.4% in the quarter, this is still, I would say, in the main with limited impact from the big initiatives of the European recovery funds. You know, when we talk about Digital Toolkit in Spain, vouchers in Italy are starting to come through, but not yet. These have been mostly delayed for administrative reasons. What's driving the current acceleration is essentially two things. One is the beyond connectivity part of service revenue. It's about a quarter of our service revenue is now growing in excess of 25% year-over-year. You have a full range of areas which are growing very strongly from IoT, which is growing in the high single digit. Cloud, 30% year-over-year.
There's a wide range of digital services accelerating. If you look at it, instead of from a segment mix, I would say we are seeing strong acceleration into the public sector, where we are growing double digit at the moment. Some of it may be tender associated to the European recovery funds. Some of it is simply higher demand that we are seeing now.
In terms of the margin of that growth.
Yeah.
In terms of the margin of that growth, it's similar to the group margin, it's not dramatically different?
We are seeing good margin growth also in the quarter as much as we see service revenue growth. Margin dynamic is actually quite good.
Nick, we
Okay. Thanks very much.
We deliberately don't go after, let's say, product services that, let's say, are very, very low margin. I mean, that's not the type of business that we focus on.
Great. Thanks very much.
Thank you very much. Our next question today, and this is the last question that we have time for today, comes from James Ratzer from New Street. James, please go ahead.
Good morning, Nick and Margherita Della Valle. I'd two questions, please. I wasn't expecting this morning to be asking questions about the FY2024 guidance, but given you have the slide in there where you talk about some of the considerations for it, I was wondering if I could just drill down on that a little bit more detail. Firstly, on the margins, you seem to have kind of three red ticks down and two green ticks up on how the margin-
We knew she thought was there.
Yeah, sorry. It had to be me. But at the same time, you've also mentioned that doesn't include potential uplift that could come in from energy caps. Well, first of all, should I read that slide as saying margins for next year might be slightly down, but could it be that if the energy caps come in, margins for next year could be stable or maybe even up for next year? If you could say anything about kind of what we should think about for the base level for free cash flow for next year, if you can say anything on that. The second question I had, just a broader question on Germany. I mean, Philippe has been in as the new CEO since July now.
I mean, I think a lot of the commentary you've talked about today, Nick, has been about successfully fixing some of the problems that were there in the past. Can you give any kind of commentary on how Philippe is thinking about maybe driving new initiatives in Germany from here going forward over the next few years? Thank you.
You do the first one or no?
Yes. On FY2024, of course, we need to wait for the guidance in May, but we wanted to use the presentation to start highlighting the key moving parts ahead of FY2024, given the macro environment we are facing. Going on to the mix, I'd say we see two major drags to our performance next year. One is specifically energy inflation. Take it as current condition, current spot price is EUR 500 million. The second is, of course, the wider inflationary pressure that will affect wages and also other costs. Against these, I think on a more positive note, we should expect Europe to have some structural elements of re-acceleration embedded in its performance, as we have discussed today.
We will have a weaker exit this year because we have suffered from customer losses, but we have re-accelerated the commercial performance in Germany and Spain, and this will be supportive from a demand perspective. On the demand front, there is the possibility of some macro pressure, but we will also have the benefits of the price increases that we have just talked about. Then finally, we will have the actions that we are undertaking on costs as part of the new EUR 1 billion target that will also be favorable. I mean, net-net, I cannot be drawn into EBITDA guidance at this stage. We will have to come back in May. You asked about free cash flow. Maybe I can add an element there.
We have not yet done our CapEx planning for FY2024, again at this time in the year, but I'd say you will have seen us for FY2023 confirming our EUR 8 billion CapEx spend, excluding Vantage growth CapEx. Looking ahead to FY2024, we feel broadly comfortable in maintaining our current level of capital intensity.
James, let me speak for Philippe, who we'll all have an opportunity to meet him in due course. If I sit back and, you know, I was just thinking that there's really been four things that I've talked a lot to Philippe about and what he's been focused on. First was sort of rebuild the team with the right skill sets, capabilities to execute the plan, and he has done that, and I've got total confidence in that team. We've done some important additions that I think will make a big impact. I'd say secondly, it was about execute on the plan that was in place for the remedial actions, and he's accomplished that.
The third they have been working on for the last couple of months was I was concerned about there were too many initiatives in that business. They needed to be rationalized, focused down with clearer prioritization to drive execution success and growth. I was really pleased that we had a review a couple of weeks ago in Germany for a whole day with the team, and they were presenting back on that prioritization and trade-offs that need to be made for execution for next year. Now, clearly, I can't go through what all of those were, but we're very happy that now is a more focused plan. Then the fourth thing from my perspective was really just continue to execute through on all the investments we're doing around the network, both mobile and fixed.
It's a big agenda because if you think about the mobile side, coverage obligations, ensuring that those are executed through, and then on the fixed side, we're forming a new JV. We're meeting our partner, I think it's next week or the week after, go through detailed next steps, et cetera. So these are, I would say, the first four things. He will also say he's communicating, he's getting out into the business, he's meeting customers, he's understanding the challenges, issues, what more we could do to improve the experience. So there are many other things, but these are the four things I'd call out.
Great. Thank you very much indeed.
Okay. That is all the questions we have time for today. I'll hand back to Margherita Della Valle.
Well, thank you to everyone for taking the time to join us. I'm sure that we will meet in due course over the next couple of weeks, one way or another. Thank you.