Vesuvius plc (LON:VSVS)
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Apr 29, 2026, 4:47 PM GMT
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Earnings Call: H2 2023

Feb 29, 2024

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

To a Vesuvius full year 2023 presentation. My name is Patrick André, I'm the Chief Executive of Vesuvius, and to my right with me this morning is Mark Collis, our Chief Financial Officer. I will start with some updates on our performance during the year, then Mark will give you more details on our financials. I will conclude at the end of the meeting with some perspectives on the year 2024 and beyond before opening the floor for questions. We delivered robust results in 2023 despite difficult market conditions, in particular in the second half. Thanks to a positive pricing performance, our revenues decreased only 3% on an underlying basis despite significantly lower volumes. Our trading profits also remain robust, reaching GBP 200.4 million, a decrease limited to 6.7% on an underlying basis as compared with last year.

Our full year return on sales, at 10.4%, remained very similar to the one achieved during the first half despite the lower volumes in the second half. Despite also the high level of our strategic expansion CapEx, we could achieve a higher cash conversion ratio than last year at 93%. We generated more than GBP 128 million of free cash flow during the year, and we could maintain a very solid balance sheet structure with a stable net debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 0.9. This strong cash flow generation and the perspectives for the coming years made the board confident to propose a final dividend for the year of 16.2p per share, bringing the total dividend for the year to 23p per share. This represents an increase of 3.4% as compared with last year.

We delivered a strong operational performance in 2023, which explains why we could maintain robust results despite the difficult market conditions. First, all three business units continued to successfully implement a very solid pricing strategy during the year. We could not only cover all of our cost increases in a still inflationary environment, but in Flow Control and Foundry, we could also share with our customers some of the value we created in their manufacturing process with our technologically differentiated products and solutions. At the same time, our Flow Control and Foundry business units could increase market share in most important regions, demonstrating, again, the strength and relevance of our technology-based business model. This was made possible by the progress we continued to achieve in 2023 in the efficiency of our R&D organization.

We could launch 21 new products in 2023 against 15 in 2022, and we could progress further our new product sales ratio to 17.6%. This ratio represents the percentage of our sales during the year which we realized with products and solutions which didn't exist five years ago. And to improve our profitability further, we launched at the end of last year an important cost-saving program targeting GBP 30 million of cash recurring cost savings by 2026. This program will only deliver around GBP 3 million savings this year in 2024, but we expect to reach a run rate at the end of this year of GBP 10-15 million, which will positively impact our 2025 results. All of our strategic expansion programs in Flow Control worldwide and in Asia for all three business units are fully on track and should all be operational by the end of this year.

This new investment will start positively impacting our operating cash flow as from 2025, and the completion of this growth investment program will also enable us to significantly reduce the level of our capital expenditures as from 2025. Thanks to this strong operational performance last year, we could generate a very significant free cash flow. This enabled us to improve return to shareholders by simultaneously increasing dividends and launching our first share buyback program end of last year. Let's now have a look in more details at the performance of the Steel Division. You can see on this slide, where the size of the bubbles is proportional to Vesuvius Steel Division sales, that the division operated in a difficult environment in 2023.

After a limited improvement during the first half of the year from the very low level of the second half 2022, we were expecting a further improvement in H2. In fact, it was the opposite, with a significant weakening of the steel market in the second half, in particular in Europe. On a full year basis, all major steel production regions saw a decline in 2023, with the notable exception of India. The weakness was particularly pronounced in the EU plus UK, where the steel production decline 7.3%, reaching a lower level than in 2020, the worst year of the pandemic. South America was also strongly affected, with a decline of 6.5% in Brazil. North America resisted better, and in particular the US, whereas Mexico was affected by the bankruptcy and stoppage end of 2022 of one of the important steel producers in the country.

China's steel production was stable in 2023. However, domestic consumption declined, and this stability of production translated into a significant increase of net steel exports to the rest of the world, putting pressure on all steel producers outside of China, with the exception of the U.S. due to efficient trade protections in place. On the positive side, steel inventories, which were still excessive beginning of 2023, progressively decreased during the year and are now at a normalized level. During the year and due to the very difficult situation of the construction sector more or less worldwide, long steel products were proportionately more affected than flat products. This was in particular the case in China.

Looking forward, beyond the current temporary weakness, we continue to be very positive on the steel market evolution outside of China in the coming years, which will be a tailwind for Vesuvius in the years to come. In this overall difficult steel environment, our Flow Control business units performed well and continued to gain market share in volumes in most regions. This was particularly the case in India, the most dynamic market worldwide, where our new VISO capacity inaugurated a few months ago is already supporting our outperformance. We continued also to progress nicely in China due to the positive dynamics of the high-quality flat steel sector in the country, contrary to the construction-related long steel sector. We also continued to perform well in the U.S., now a very important market for us, with in particular the first robotics solution successes with some of our key customers.

The only major market where we progressed slower than the underlying steel market was EU plus UK, where we were affected by important destocking from our customers and where we also very significantly decreased during the second half of the year our exposure to customers at risk of insolvency. We could, however, not totally avoid the consequences of the February 2024 insolvency of ADI Taranto in Italy, which will have a negative impact of GBP 3 million on our 2024 results. The results of the steel division overall were resilient despite the adverse external market conditions, thanks to this good performance of Flow Control, but also to a much lower extent, of course, thanks to improved performances in the Sensors and Probes business unit. Flow Control could slightly increase its top line on an underlying basis due to its pricing performance and parallel market share gains.

Sensors and probes, after several difficult years, are now firmly in the black and should continue to progress in the coming years. The year was more difficult for our Advanced Refractories business unit due not only to the general market weakness but also due to market share losses in EMEA and in the Americas, where we gave priority to pricing over volumes. The Advanced Refractories business unit, however, continued to progress and gain market share in Asia in 2023 and in particular in India, but also from a low base in China. Let's now turn to the Foundry division. As you can see on the slide, foundry markets were mixed in 2023. In most geographies, the automotive-related end markets started to recover last year from the low point of 2022.

However, this automotive market represents only around 22% of the overall market of our foundry division, and its recovery could not compensate the weakness of other general industrials markets, which, after a positive start of the year, weakened significantly during the second half. This was in particular the case in EU plus UK, but also in China and in South America. Apparent demand in our foundry markets was also negatively affected by a significant destocking movement of casting pieces in several regions. On the positive side, India and, to a lesser extent, North America saw a positive growth last year in both automotive and general industrials. Looking forward, we expect our general industrial markets to start improving in the second half of the year and resume from then their positive long-term dynamics.

After a positive first half, the Foundry division's results were negatively affected in the second half of the year by stronger than anticipated market weakness in some of its important end markets, in particular in Northern Europe and Germany, especially in South America and in China. This negative end market impact was partially compensated by a strong operating performance in the division, with market share gains in all regions and positive pricing everywhere. The division also progressed strongly in India, the most dynamic foundry market today. Despite this second half headwinds, the return on sales of the Foundry division increased for the third year in a row, and we expect this positive trend to continue in 2024 and, of course, beyond.

The strong operational performance of Vesuvius, in terms of pricing and market share gains, was made possible by the efficiency of our research and development organization, where we continued to make good progress in 2023. We could, in particular, launch 21 new products during the year. You can see on this slide a few examples of the products that we launched in 2023. On the left, this is a new liner that we introduced for our Flow Control isostatic product line last year. This liner gives our isostatic pieces a higher erosion and corrosion resistance. It minimizes chemical reactivity when our pieces are in contact with molten steel. This, in turn, minimizes the risk of inclusions in the steel and improves the quality of the finished steel products for our customers.

At the center of the slide, you will see our new Supermatrix bricks being introduced by the Advanced Refractories division for application both in electric arc furnaces and in basic oxygen furnaces. With an improved resistance to corrosion, oxidation, and erosion, these bricks provide our steel customers with an extension of the life of their vessels in between two relining and, doing so, greater efficiency. Finally, on the right side of the slide is a picture of the new Supermelt crucible, which we have introduced to our aluminum foundry customers. By increasing the life of the crucibles and improving the consistency of the melting process at the same time, it enables our foundry customers to both reduce their cost and improve the quality of their final foundry products.

We also made significant progress in 2023 with the penetration and adoption by our customers of our innovative robotics solution for continuous casting. Several of our robotics solutions were adopted by important customers in North America and, for the first time, in India. These robotics solutions present important safety advantages for our customers, as they allow them to remove workers from some of the most dangerous areas in the steel plant. At the same time, by reducing incidents due to human errors, our solutions reduce downgrades of steel, improve yield, and improve the overall quality of steel products. Our robotics solutions also support the development of our recurring refractory consumable sales. We introduced the first of our new robotics solutions to the market in 2012, and we sold 23 installations in the first 10 years up to 2022. Last year alone, in 2023, we won 7 new projects.

We expect to do even better this year with 3 projects already won since the beginning of the year. As you can see on this slide, beyond the positive results that we are obtaining today from our research efforts in both materials science and robotics, we are continuing to increase our financial commitment to research and development, and this research is becoming more and more productive. We again increased in 2023 our new product sales ratio, again representing the percentage of our sales realized with products and solutions which didn't exist 5 years ago. This was again increased for the third year in a row. This enables us now to have a full pipeline of products under development, which we intend to progressively introduce to the market in the coming few years and which will support both our pricing performance objectives and our market share gains ambitions.

All our strategic growth CapEx are progressing well and are fully on track for completion by the end of this year. Two axes. First, we are expanding the capacity of our flagship Flow Control business unit everywhere in the world to support our strong market share gains ambitions in the coming years for this business unit. But second, we are also expanding both the product range and the capacity of our Foundry and Advanced Refractories business unit in Asia to increase our penetration and benefit from the very positive market dynamics in this region, which is the most dynamic in the world. After completion of this important expansion program end of this year, we will be in a position to decrease our overall level of capital investment and increase further our free cash flow generation. We are also continuing to make good progress in our sustainability agenda.

We reduced in 2023 our CO2 intensity by more than 20% as compared with our reference year 2019. This enabled us to reach 2 years ahead of schedule, our first intermediary targets on our path to net zero. This also positions us favorably towards the achievement of our next intermediary targets of a reduction of 50% by 2035. Last, but of course not least, we achieved in 2023 our best-ever safety performance with a lost-time incident frequency rate of 0.6 per million hours worked. This performance is the result of a long-term action plan engaged into several years ago to systematically identify and mitigate the safety risk not only in our plants but also in the plant of our customers where our employees are present.

This has not only led Vesuvius now in the group of the best-performing companies worldwide in terms of safety, but it has also positioned us as a recognized benchmark and support for many of our steel and foundry customers all over the world. Despite this encouraging progress, our ultimate objective remains to become a zero-accident company. I will now hand over to Mark, who will give you more information about our financial performance in 2023.

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

Thank you, Patrick, and good morning, everybody. I'll start with our revenue bridge. Our full-year revenue was just over GBP 1.9 billion. As Patrick said, we had weak markets, particularly in the second half. We are therefore very pleased that our revenue declined by only 3% on an underlying basis. The size of the forex impact was significant at GBP 55 million, and this reflects our very wide and very diverse geographical footprint. This, again, impacted the second half and was mainly from four currencies: the Indian rupee, the Chinese renminbi, the Argentine peso, and the Turkish lira. Sterling against these currencies has continued into 2024, and we have included a ready reckoner within the handout. Looking at the rest of the bridge, volume is down by 5.5%, and this is split 90% against market activity and 10% against market share.

Starting with market activity, we estimate that two-thirds are from reduction in real demand, and the other one-third is from destocking. This is the destocking of both customer products as well as our consumables held by those customers and reflects the stabilization of supply chains in the early part of the year. Moving to the market share element, which covers the remaining 10%, there are two components. Firstly, there was a reduction in our market share for Advanced Refractories. This is consistent with the message we gave in H1, where we had lower volumes from the prioritization of price. Secondly, I am very proud to say we have met our Capital Markets Day commitment, which was to outperform the market by 2% in Flow Control and Foundry. Finally, you will note a healthy price increase with all BUs contributing.

In Flow Control and Foundry, we have once again demonstrated our ability to increase price, gaining market share. This is testament to our focus on R&D and inherent value in our products. Turning to trading profit. Once again, you see the H2 currency impact, with headwinds amounting to GBP 12.5 million. After excluding this, our trading profit has declined by only 6.7%. Looking at our return on sales at 10.4%, on an underlying basis, this represents a very small decline of only 40 basis points. This demonstrates very good operational performance when you consider the lower volumes. On volumes, the drop-through impact on trading profit was 44%. This was slightly higher than usual, with the greatest impact in Foundry. As Patrick said, our European Foundry business is heavily weighted to Germany, but despite this, Foundry still managed to slightly improve its return on sales to 10%.

As I noted previously, we saw a solid contribution from pricing. All business units managed to achieve price increases over and above their input costs. This is in part thanks to our commercial teams who can articulate the value of our products to our customers. Finally, we had the cost impact of the cyberattack, but offsetting this were some positive commercial negotiations. These include some items which may not reoccur in 2024, for example, the sale of surplus land, a tax settlement, insurance proceeds, and energy grants, with these amounting to circa GBP 5.5 million. Looking at the full income statement, I've already covered the trading elements. The other elements are largely in line with guidance. Of note is the increase in minority interests. As with H1, this is from our majority-owned Indian businesses who are continuing to benefit from our position in the Indian market.

And they will further benefit from the capacity investments we have made and are still making. Our headline EPS was GBP 0.467. Adjusting for currency, this is a reduction of 11.9%. And finally, turning to the dividend, we are pleased to advise a 3.4% increase in the total dividend to GBP 0.23 per share. The total dividend for 2023 is over GBP 60 million, and in combination with our GBP 50 million share buyback, we are clearly demonstrating our through-cycle cash generation and our desire to return value to our shareholders.

As we set out in our CMD update in November 2023, Vesuvius has a business model which throws off cash. This year has been no different. Despite our reported profit decreasing by 6.7%, our free cash flow has increased by 4%, and our cash conversion ratio was 93%. Our asset-light business model means our stay-in-business industrial CapEx remains at circa 2% of revenue.

We also spent GBP 10 million on customer installations, and this CapEx essentially binds our customers to our consumable sales. We continue to invest in sustainability. These projects clearly aim to improve the environment but also reduce our operating costs for efficiencies such as lower energy consumption. And finally, our special growth projects, since inception, we have spent over GBP 50 million, with the remaining balance of around GBP 30 million-GBP 35 million impact in 2024.

This will, of course, bring this phase of our growth CapEx cycle to an end. As you know, working capital efficiency is a key focus area, so let's look at the trends on the next slide. As promised, we reversed the working capital outflow we saw in H1. In H1, we had an outflow of GBP 31 million, while in H2, we achieved a GBP 15 million working capital inflow, given a full-year improvement of GBP 20 million.

While, of course, an element is due to lower revenues in H2, you can see that we have improved our working capital intensity. Reducing from 24.1 at June 2023 to 23.4% at December 2023, this is also below the 23.8 we saw at December 2022. Finally, at 23.4, we are progressing well towards our CMD target, which is 21% by the end of 2026. Our gearing has remained constant at just over 0.9 times over the year. This is very good in the context of a fallen EBITDA. The other elements on this chart are, as you would expect, with perhaps the exception of two points. Firstly, the right-of-use asset. This has increased by GBP 20 million since the first year, since H1, and remains mainly the renewal of a property lease in India.

Secondly, there is GBP 3 million within the other caption relates to our share buyback program, which started in December 2023. We expect this to be complete by the end of 2024, and therefore you should expect a further GBP 47 million of outflow in this financial year. Finally, I'm pleased to say we continue to have a strong balance sheet, demonstrated by our low leverage and high liquidity. Clearly, we have further capacity for investments, for M&A, and for further returns of capital. Before I hand back to Patrick, a few words on our operational efficiency program. In the November CMD, we announced a target to deliver GBP 30 million of savings by 2026. The program, in terms of components and size, remains as previously outlined, and we are approaching it with vigor.

You will note that along with forex and M&A, we will also exclude restructuring costs within our definition of underlying. This will support the monitoring of our performance, and later in the year, depending on the size, we will reassess whether we treat those restructuring costs as exceptional. We will, of course, be giving you a full update when we present our H1 2024 results. For now, our estimate of the in-year savings is GBP 3 million, but we are expecting to target a run rate of between GBP 10 million and GBP 15 million by the end of the year. And of course, that will position us very nicely for the 2025 year-end. Thank you, and now back to Patrick for the outlook and his closing remarks.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Thank you, Mark. In line with the end of 2023, the activity in both our steel and foundry markets remains subdued at the beginning of the year. However, we expect some improvements in market activity as the year progresses, consistent with external forecasts. We expect to continue to outperform our underlying steel and foundry markets in both Flow Control and Foundry business units. We are progressing the implementation of our GBP 30 million cash cost savings program, of which we expect to deliver GBP 3 million of in-year savings in 2024, but a run rate of GBP 10 million-GBP 15 million by the end of the year. Overall, on an underlying constant currency basis, once restructuring costs of GBP 6 million being excluded, we expect to make moderate progress in 2024.

Beyond 2024, we anticipate delivering stronger progress supported by the benefits of the cost savings program together with our innovation and significant capacity investment in growing markets. Thanks to our strong operational performance, which we intend to maintain. Despite the short-term and market weakness, our mid-term ambitions remain unchanged, with a targeted return on sales of 12.5% by 2026 and a cumulative free cash flow generation of at least GBP 400 million in the coming three years. I thank you for your attention, and I now propose us to open the floor for questions.

Andrew Douglas
Analyst, Jefferies

Good morning, gentlemen. It's Andy from Jefferies. Three questions, please, and I'll come back with my other ones. Can you expand a little bit on India? Clearly, the market's good. You're good in India. You're adding additional capacity. What is the risk that this is the only growth market in the world in steel this year, and we attack more competition, more pricing pressure? Or are you guys confident that you can offset any of that?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

That's the first one?

Andrew Douglas
Analyst, Jefferies

[audio distortion]?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Okay, I'll start with this one. Thank you, Andy, for the question. It's a very good question. As we presented during our Capital Markets Day, we anticipate a strong growth of the steel market outside of China in the coming few years. And yes, it's clear that India will represent the majority of this growth, at least half of this growth. But it's not the only growth geography. We anticipate significant growth in EMEA, the part of EMEA excluding EU plus UK. We see strong dynamics there for the steel industry. We also believe that the Americas, both Latin America and North America, will grow, not as much as India. The growth rate will absolutely not be the same, but we are positive about the growth rates of the steel production in the years to come in the Americas, both Latin America and North America.

However, today, as we speak, it was the case in 2023. 2024, I think we should. I'm not too negative in 2024 for the Americas, but it's clear that in 2024, probably for the second year in a row, India will represent the majority of the growth in the global steel markets. Our position in India is strong, and I would say reinforcing itself progressively. I believe we have the good strategy, the right strategy in India. We are investing in state-of-the-art new greenfield operations, especially in a new site in Vizag, in the southeastern coast of India, where we made an acquisition of industrial land a few years ago. We are now progressively investing in this platform, which will progressively become, in the next 5-10 years, not only our biggest plant in Asia, but maybe some of our among our biggest plants in the world.

We invest there with best-in-class technology, best-in-class equipment. We select ourselves the people that we are hiring. We take top people, both at the management level and in terms of blue collar. This creates a very competitive platform to capture the growth in India. We believe that this is the right strategy in a market which may double in size. It's not 10% or 15%. It's the doubling in size of the market in the next 10 years. We are paying a lot of attention to do the right thing, to have the best equipment, the best product. We are specializing in products where there is some barrier to entry, not too much in the commoditized part of the business. This is what allows us what has allowed us in 2023, for the second year in a row, to outperform the market.

And interestingly, not only in Flow Control. We say Flow Control is usual. We've done it before, and we'll continue to do it. But also in Advanced Refractories because of these choices where we are progressing very well. India is an area of strong growth and profitable growth. I insist on that. Strong and profitable growth of our Advanced Refractory business units. So globally, the steel division is progressing quite well in India. And it is also, we don't talk too much about it, but it's also the case of our Foundry division, which is also progressing quite well in India and gaining market share. So our ambition is not only to surf the wave, to benefit from the growth of India in the coming years, but clearly to outperform India, to grow even stronger, to grow even stronger than the market.

We are investing significantly in the country for that through our two listed subsidiaries, Vesuvius India and Foseco India, which we have been preparing for years for that, for this orchestration. We have been waiting for the orchestration for quite some time. Now it's happening. We are now in a very good position because we have a very strong balance sheet also in these two Indian subsidiaries. These two Indian subsidiaries are in a positive net cash situation, each of them, which is cash that we have kept there for years, waiting for the right moment. Now we can invest. So we can invest very rapidly. We don't need to increase the capital. We don't need to do anything. We have the cash, and we are ready to go and seize the opportunity proactively and rapidly. This is what we are doing.

Andrew Douglas
Analyst, Jefferies

Cool. On the exceptional charges, you've historically said you're going to take them above the line. That may well change. What might cause that, and who or what determines it, please?

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

So we will definitely record it as underlying so we can track it and see it. But what determines it is generally size. So at GBP 6 million, we're kind of just on the cusp of, is it exceptional, is it not exceptional? We're encouraging people to go very hard around restructuring. So there's a possibility we could incur more than GBP 6, but obviously, there'd be associated benefits from that. So if it's slightly bigger, then I think we'll probably record it as exceptional. And it's really a matter for the board and the audit committee.

Andrew Douglas
Analyst, Jefferies

If we think about the GBP 3 million and the run rate of GBP 10 million-GBP 15 million, can you explain exactly what you've done so far in terms of the cost saving program and what are the plans for the rest of this year?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

The cost savings program of GBP 30 million is the main levers that we are using to achieve. First, I would say very classical lean initiatives. We are screening our organization to see where we could be leaner and at the same time as efficient. It's not more efficient than what we are today. Very classical. But also a push towards automation and digitalization. Automation of our plants to progressively substitute people with robotics and automation, and digitalization of our administrative processes. I don't think we are best in class, to be fully transparent. I think that we are not best in class in terms of how we manage our administrative processes. So it's not only the production unit. It's also the administrative processes. I believe we have too many people needed today. It's not because we are not efficient. It's because our administrative processes are a bit outdated sometimes.

Several of them could be better digitalized, generating also significant savings. So we've engaged more than two years ago now in a significant ramp-up of our IT and digital spend. And we are starting to see the first impact on that. It will continue in the coming years. So these are the main levers. So of course, we start the one which generates the most immediate impact are the lean savings. The one which necessitates a CapEx takes a little bit more time because you need to study, to do the engineering, and to implement on the ground the CapEx. So this goes a little bit later on. And so in 2024, what we will see in terms of impact are mostly lean savings. The positive consequences of the automation CapEx will go further in 2025 and 2026.

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

There's a couple of things I would add that I think are important. So one is we've set a very high benchmark. It has to be cash savings that we see. No accounting. So it's pure cash. The savings that Patrick and I have communicated need to be nets, not gross. So you don't get to reinvest these savings. This needs to recreate to our 12.5% margin target. And lastly, it needs to be hard savings. So when we talk about automation, we talk about FTE reduction, OPEX, etc. And I think that's the criteria that Patrick set down that we'll monitor and make sure happens.

Speaker 7

Thank you. Lush Sherwin from JP. I've got a couple of questions. First is on refractories and the pricing there. Obviously, I appreciate the first half. You took them up and then lost market shares. I think you reduced them in the second half. I guess where are we on that journey? Are you sort of happy with prices in refractories? And do you expect that business to take share this year?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

In terms of pricing, so the Flow business unit had a good performance last year. And I expect the Flow business unit to continue to have a positive performance this year. So I do not expect any of the business unit to have a negative pinching effect between cost and pricing this year. This being said, in terms of what is the evolution of prices, I'm not expecting a very significant evolution of pricing, neither negative nor positive, in both Flow Control and Foundry. There will be, on average, lower prices in the Advanced Refractories division this year than last year, simply because the cost base is also declining due to the decrease, on average, of raw material prices in particular. So again, it's very difficult to predict beginning of the year what will be the exact level.

But order of magnitude, I am very confident in the ability of both the Flow Control and Foundry divisions to maintain an ambitious pricing strategy, at least compensating any cost variation. It will be also the same in Advanced Refractories, but the absolute level of prices will decline for mechanical reasons in Advanced Refractories, much less so, if any, in Flow Control and Foundry.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. Second one's on foundries and particularly the Americas, because I think the first half was up and then quite a big change in the second half. It sounds like it's South America. Is that a particular region or particular end markets within that that have softened in the second half?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

South America was a very difficult market last year. Already, the first half was not very good, but the second half was also quite difficult. We are, however, beginning of this year. The beginning of the year itself is not that much better in South America, but the feeling, the sentiment of our customers is evolving positively there. It's too soon to be 100% sure because for that meaning, it's more conversations that we are having with our customers. But we are probably significantly more positive about the perspective in South America today than three or four months ago.

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

The other thing that happened in South America is end of 2022, there was a big rush for production of trucks. There was a change in regulation, which then obviously meant that people produced more than they would typically produce. Then you've come off that trend in 2023. Hopefully, 2023 to 2024 is a more stable trend.

Speaker 7

Okay. Just last one's on working capital, sort of really strong performance in the year in terms of getting to the target by 2026. Do we think of that as a linear progression down or in terms of continuing to make those sorts of strides every year?

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

So we are targeting to get under 23%. So that's the ambition we've set for 2024. So all things being logical, 22% in 2025 and then a 21% in 2026. So yeah, fairly linear. But as you can probably imagine, it's quite a tough challenge to squeeze out working capital. We're already quite much better positioned than our competitors, both the Japanese and some of our other kind of U.K.-listed competitors. But yeah, that's the target.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you very much.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

But this 23% that we are targeting this year, which is, by the way, a 12-month average. It's not end of year. A 12-month average is not the end game. We believe that we have the opportunity to go further down in the coming years. And we really intend to do that. We are doing it progressively to make sure that our customers are taking that we are taking no risk for the security of supply of our customers. But we believe that we can, without having our customers incurring any risk, reduce further our working capital intensity in the years to come.

Speaker 7

Thank you very much.

Andrew Simms
Analyst, Berenberg

Morning. It's Andrew Simms from Berenberg. Just three questions, if I can. Firstly, on new products, can you give any color around the margin contribution you're getting from those new products that you referenced earlier in the presentation? And then I'll come back to the other two questions.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

New products are very diverse slots. But generally speaking, and we follow that now closely, on average, our new products have a higher level margin than existing products. But on top of that, our new products allow us to gain market share. And of course, the impact on the consolidated P&L, whether you substitute an existing product with a new product or whether you an existing Vesuvius product with a new Vesuvius product or whether you substitute a competitor's product with one of these new products, the impact on your analytical accounting will tell you it's at the same margin. But the reality of your impact on your general accounting P&L, the only one which matters, is very different because the market share gains of our customers are marginal sales, which have an overproportionate impact on your general P&L. So these new products have really a double impact.

First, if we would simply substitute without any market share gain, they will lift up the margin. But they are also an engine to support our market share gains objectives.

Andrew Simms
Analyst, Berenberg

Great. Thank you. Just on the strategic expansion and the CapEx you spent there, what are your assumptions around utilization and overhead recovery over the course of the next couple of years and how that might impact margin?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Our ambition is to fill our new capacity by, I hope, 2027, somewhere between 2026 and 2028. There are some geographies. My gut feeling is that in India, for example, it will be more 2026 than 2028. In other geographies, it could be a bit longer. Our objective is to fill them rapidly.

Andrew Simms
Analyst, Berenberg

Great. Thank you. And then just on foundry, you mentioned or referenced a recovery in general industrial. You didn't really mention anything about automotive. Can you give any sort of color on the outlook there?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Automotive had from a very low point, unfortunately, but had a good recovery last year, but from a low point. We see overall the automotive progressing a little bit this year, but much more slowly in terms of pace, percentage-wise. The progression 2023 to 2024 should be positive, but less so than 2023 to 2023 as compared with 2022. Not the same in all regions. Not the same in all regions. We are a little bit more optimistic on North America or Asia than in Europe.

Andrew Simms
Analyst, Berenberg

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 8

Morning. Dom Sherwin from Numis. Just firstly, on the robotics and clearly a step change in run rate last year. Is this now the long-awaited inflection point? And can we extrapolate the three new systems in the year to date? And secondly, just want to better understand, maybe clarify around the advanced refractory strategy going forward. Are you suggesting now that in terms of prioritising the value over volume is now done, or do you think there will still continue to be a little bit of a drag there and potentially further market share losses as you walk away from an attractive business?

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Thank you, Dom. So on the first point, as these are, it's more difficult to predict for robotics projects because they are one-off CapEx projects for our customers than for consumables, which are linked to their production level. But we are really feeling that we are at an inflection point. The steel industry is a very conservative industry. It takes them years to adopt new practices. And they are conservative for good reasons. So each of them, before adopting a new solution, they want to see if the neighbor has done it. So there is kind of a catch-22 situation. But now that we have that established base of robots in the world, in most regions of the world, we have many robots operating very efficiently for many years. If I may use this expression, the word starts spreading that our solutions work.

It makes more and more steel customers confident in the idea of trying. So we are really seeing an acceleration. The penetration is gathering steam. I would expect this year to be at least, and I hope, significantly higher even than last year. We have more and more inquiries beyond the project itself. We have more and more inquiries of our customers all over the world. The only place in the world which remains very conservative for reasons which personally escape me is Western Europe. But I don't know if there are Western European customers on the call, but if there could be a little bit more daring, we would appreciate it. But nearly everywhere else in the world, all steel customers are going in this direction because they see that as a way of the future. It improves safety.

It replaces skilled operators, which for many of them are in a generation which is retiring. They are struggling to attract new generations to work in these most dangerous places of the steel plant. And not only to work there, but to work there 20 years to acquire the skills necessary to operate this part of the steel plant correctly. It's becoming a nightmare to find people wanting to do that. So it's really a way of the future, I believe, for all steel producers who believe in their own future. And then we see that. We see this belief, this understanding, gathering steam. And we are very optimistic in the penetration, in the fact that we are now in an accelerating curve for the penetration of our robotics solution. Advanced Refractories. No, the work is not completely done. We are making good progress.

I think we still have some work ahead of us to completely transform the way we want the Advanced Refractories business unit. There will be ups and downs. I really see the progress. On average, we are focusing more and more on value-added projects, retreating from areas which are too commoditized, which are too commoditized, accelerating in Asia, accelerating in Asia, and in products where we believe we can bring differentiation to our customers. Advanced Refractories will never be Flow Control. The potential for innovation is not of the same order of magnitude. I really believe we can differentiate much further. Already today, we are presenting very innovative solutions for part of Advanced Refractories to our customers, which was not the case three, four years ago.

I believe that 3-4 years from now, it will be a sensibly different advanced refractory business unit than the one we had 3-4 years ago.

Speaker 8

Thank you. Just to also call the mic, just one technical point for Mark. Just help with the modeling. Can you just give us the specific price-volume mix within the Foundry underlying sales number?

Mark Collis
CFO, Vesuvius

So yeah, I think price for Foundry was around about 16 from memory. Just give me two secs. Yeah, GBP 16 million was price. GBP 16 million was market share. So both in a positive direction. And then volumes was around about 5%-6%. But then you also had some destocking in there as well.

Speaker 8

Thank you.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Are there any further questions from the room first? If there are no further questions from the room, may I ask if there are any questions from the audience, from the remote audience?

Operator

If you would like to ask a question on the phone, please press star one on your telephone keypad. We'll pause for a moment to assemble the queue. We'll take our first question from the line of Harry Phillips from Peel Hunt. Your line is open.

Harry Phillips
Analyst, Peel Hunt

Good morning, everyone. Just three questions, please. Just very briefly on the bad debt side, if you could just maybe provide a little more detail on that. The second, just continuing on from Dom's sort of advanced refractory question, and particularly reductions in Europe and in volumes and so on, is there an issue around plant utilisation? And is the sort of price-over-volume strategy sort of hindering that recovery profile in any way? And does it lend itself to site consolidation in Europe as a consequence of that? And then lastly, just on the growth and sort of, I suppose, as I'm not in the room, I can ask the question more easily.

When you look at the sort of WSA or the ArcelorMittal assumptions around growth in the current year and I'm not going to criticise you for being conservative at all, but obviously, they are looking for quite reasonable growth this year and even more so in India. And just sort of your views on that compared to your own more conservative thoughts about the outlook in 2024 in that context.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Thank you. Thank you very much, Harry. Starting with the bad debt. So the bad debt was with one of our important customers in Italy, ADI Taranto, the former ILVA. We have now for years, but we have a very serious and professional internal organization to look at credit risk. And I would never say that we can see it 100% coming. Nobody can. But we are now well equipped to monitor the credit risk of our customers. And it's clear that overall, worldwide, the situation in the steel sector today is not the same than what it was three years ago. Three years ago, all producers in the world were in a good situation from a financial point of view. It's not the case anymore today. Some of them, fortunately, remain in a good financial situation. Some others, less so. So we are monitoring this extremely closely.

We had identified a few months ago that ADI Taranto was, despite all the efforts of the local management there and I think that the local management of ADI have been doing their best to alleviate the situation. Despite all their efforts, this customer, with which we have a very good relationship, was having growing difficulties. We decided to reduce significantly our exposure to these customers over the past few months. To give you an order of magnitude, our exposure to the customer summer last year was around GBP 10 million, which we have progressively reduced, accepting to lose market share, to the level it was when the final insolvency was finally declared second half of February of GBP 3 million. We reduced from 10 to 3.

We would have had a couple of months more. Probably it would have been even less than that, but you don't choose the moment. We could not avoid this GBP 3 million hit, but the hit would have been much higher if we would not have engaged resolutely over the previous six months in this strategy to progressively and as quickly as possible reduce our exposure. This is a strategy that we it's not a strategy. It's a policy that we are implementing everywhere in the world. We just cannot afford to have too many bad debt. We have to put this under control. We will continue this policy going forward of very, very closely monitoring, at the same time supporting our customers as much as we can. There are some limits to what we can and should do to support our customers.

We cannot substitute the normal shareholders and banking world. The job of it, it is to support our customers. So it's not our job to do that. On your second question, the plant utilization of some of our plants in Advanced Refractories is effectively lower than what we would like. And I think that if we look back last year, I strongly support the level of pricing ambition that our managers have. I think it's a very good thing. Probably in some regions in Advanced Refractories and it was particularly the case in Europe, some of our managers may have been overly ambitious in terms of pricing. This happens. We are not perfect. And this now has been discussed, analyzed. And I think that our pricing strategy today in Advanced Refractories remains ambitious, but I would say reasonably ambitious.

I expect that in the coming months, without going back to a very, very high level, we have some way to go before going to saturation of our installations in Europe in particular. But I believe that the year 2024 should see a positive increase in the capacity utilization of our advanced refractory installations all over the world, knowing that if you look on the other side, at places like India, we are already at full capacity. We are really running at full capacity. Our teams in India are eagerly waiting for the new capacity under construction to come on stream.

Harry Phillips
Analyst, Peel Hunt

Thank you. And then just on the market.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

For your last question, Harry, you're right. WSA, ArcelorMittal, CRU have a slightly more optimistic assumption regarding steel markets outside of China than the one we are taking into account ourselves. Our guidance is resting on an underlying assumption of, on average it's a little bit different from one division to the next, but on average, a 2% volume growth in 2024 as compared with 2023. I would refrain from passing judgment saying if it is conservative or not. I completely respect your opinion, Harry, but I think it's too soon. You know that we are always a bit conservative. Sometimes, we have been proven right to be conservative. It's good to have all these external agencies or companies making a little bit more optimistic provisions. We'll see. If this really materialises, we will have time to upgrade.

I would like to remind that beginning of the year, our markets remain subdued. The only fact on the ground is this one, is that beginning of the year, it's soft. We'll see if the rest of the year is better.

Harry Phillips
Analyst, Peel Hunt

That's really kind and I think a very sensible starting position.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Any further question from the remote audience?

Operator

There are no further questions on the conference line. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today's question and answer session. I want to hand back to Patrick André for his concluding remarks.

Patrick André
CEO, Vesuvius

Thank you very much. I would like to thank you all for your attendance today. Thank you for listening and asking questions. We remain together with Mark and Rachel at your disposal anytime should you have further questions. I wish you a very nice day. Thank you very much.

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