Watches of Switzerland Group PLC (LON:WOSG)
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Earnings Call: Q2 2024

Nov 7, 2023

Operator

Hello, everyone, and welcome to the Watches of Switzerland Q2 trading update. My name is Bruno, and I'll be operating your call today. During the presentation, you can register to ask a question by pressing star followed by one on your telephone keypad. I'll now hand over to your host and CEO, Brian Duffy. Please go ahead.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Good morning, everyone. Thanks, thanks, Bruno. So Brian Duffy here, also joined in the room here in London with our CFO, Anders Romberg, David Hurley, our President of North America, Group Deputy CEO, and also Caroline Brown, our Finance Director. All of them can help with our questions when we get there. We're keeping you on your toes this morning. We've got RNSs both for the Q2 trading update and our Long Range Plan, 2024-2028. We are covering the Long Range Plan in much more detail at our event this afternoon. So, while I will mention the Long Range Plan as I get through these remarks, we would ask that you concentrate your questions on Q2, and we'll have plenty of time to talk LRP this afternoon.

So with regards to Q2, our group sales came in at +5%, constant currency, pretty much where we expected it. US was strong, at +11%, UK, Europe, year-on-year flat. In both markets, this period of normalization following exceptional growth continues as expected. That said, our business to Registration of Interest waitlist clients continues to be very strong, net additions during the quarter, and continued good conversion of these clients to transactions. In the US, the balance of the business remained very good, with an impressive level of high-value transactions. In UK, we did experience some internal challenges from having an unusually high level of showroom investment projects in high-value stores, including our big stores in Manchester, Birmingham, Liverpool, Glasgow and Bluewater.

Much more than we would typically have had in there for a bit more disruption than we would have expected. What we had was pop-up stores designed to cover the construction period that did not quite trade as well as we'd expected. The good news is that all of these stores are either complete or nearing completion and will incrementally impact in the second half. Additionally, we exited the Q2 strongly in the UK, EU with a decent year-on-year growth in October. We're also pleased to confirm the acquisition of 19 luxury showrooms from Ernest Jones. These stores are all complementary to our portfolio, and they all carry a good selection of the luxury watches. The LTM sales of these stores is around GBP 45 million.

We have full plans to rebrand, remerchandise, implement our systems and processes. And our whole emphasis on these stores is to get them perfect for when we really step in the gas, if you like. And we believe this is gonna take us through to Q4 to really be fully ready with these stores, and the real impact therefore will be in the fiscal year 2025. We've confirmed our guidance for the year at 8%-11% growth in constant currency and year-on-year flat profitability. This is a backdrop to our performance this year and the long range plan. We'd remind you all we're way ahead of the previous long range plan, long range plan that we issued. We've averaged 19% over the last three years.

Our plan was to average 18%, and we're even further ahead in profitability. With strong cash flow and net cash at the end of fiscal 2023 and half year, we've achieved these growth levels despite the loss of international business following the removal of VAT-free shopping for tourists. Our U.S. business, fiscal year 2023, was 42% of our sales and we only started in that market five years ago. We spent a good deal of time on the Long Range Plan and have a number of growth drivers, store investment, e-commerce expansion, launch of Rolex CPO and Analog:Shift, a major focus on luxury branded jewelry and a completely new luxury brand jewelry store concept.

The Ernest Jones acquisitions that I just referred to, and a program of new opportunities and acquisitions in which we project to spend between GBP 350 million and GBP 550 million. It all results in us saying that we can double sales over that LRP period to fiscal year 2028, improve profitability, and continue to drive really good cash conversion. As I said, we'll have the opportunity of presenting that in more detail and taking your questions on the LRP this afternoon. With that, I'll just hand over now to Q&A on the Q2 trading update.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, if you'd like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. That's star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, press star followed by two, and please remember to unmute your microphone when it's your turn to speak. Okay, we do have our first question. Comes from Jon Cox from Kepler. John, your line's now open. Please go ahead.

Jon Cox
Head of European Consumer Equities, Kepler Cheuvreux

Yeah, good morning, guys. A couple of questions for you, if I can. You talked about 5 stores being refurbished, and now that's sort of coming to an end. Just remind me, where is your store network in the UK? I think it was 146 as of the end of fiscal, the last fiscal year. So 5 of those 146 have been, are being closed, just to confirm that. Just wondering where you can... You know, where your store network is also in terms of US stores? I think again, you were 47-

... at the end of fiscal, the last fiscal year. Just wondering where you are now? That's the first question. Second question. I think you mentioned GBP 4 million-5 million from the 19 Ernest Jones stores. Just wondering, you know, you talk about stepping up the gas, and the impact will be fiscal 2025. Will those stores get up to your average, sales per store? I think it's about GBP 6 million in the UK. Do you expect that already next year, or is that, a bit, a bit ambitious? And then just on the, the lack of a, a buyback or dividend, announced this morning, I know I get the whole growth, part. You know, you'd rather spend on growth. However, clearly, existing shareholders are feeling a lot of pain.

I'm just wondering, you know, what your thoughts are, you know, in terms of what leverage ratio, you're saying in net cash at the moment, would you be prepared to do something like, like a buyback? And I'm just wondering why you decided not to do anything, when maybe a token buyback would have been appreciated by those shareholders this morning. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Okay. I'll leave that last question for Anders at the end of this then. In terms of stores in the UK, no big change, actually, from year-end. And although there is just five or six stores, they are really big value stores that we're talking about. That's what slightly caught us out. Then we've always had a degree of store renovation, expansion going on. But we've always had the mix of a negative impact of disruption during the closure period and then a positive impact as soon as the stores open. So we've tended always to assume that one offset the other. Just as it happens, during this quarter, that there's all of our big boxes.

You know, it was Bullring in Birmingham, it was Trafford in Manchester, it was Metro in Newcastle. We just opened Liverpool ONE, which is a huge, beautiful store in Liverpool, obviously, Glasgow, Mappin & Webb, you know, second biggest Mappin & Webb store. So it just so happened that we had so many stores impacted at once, and as the quarter went on, we could see that the pop-ups just weren't delivering what the stores were doing before. So that slightly caught us out, but as I said, the big deal is the stores look amazing. They're all opening. They'll all be open for Christmas overall. In the US, I think the only change we've made is a couple of Monos that we opened.

David, do you want to comment on U.S. stores?

David Hurley
Group Deputy CEO and President of North America, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah, monos that we opened, but they were kind of close to the end of the quarter, so they didn't really have much of an effect on the sales for Q2. So, you know, the plus 11% was driven by the core business.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

On the EJ stores, our whole emphasis on the stores is that we, we want to get these right. Our, our goal is that we would get up to our level of profitability, for the start of fiscal year 2025, and we're, we're working on everything we need to do to get there. Involves remerchandising of the stores, obviously a lot of training of our, our new colleagues, in terms of systems and product. Fundamentally, a lot of work with our brand partners to, to remerch and, and reorganize. We clearly got to change all of the fascia, that's there. So it's, it's quite a program, and we've said the emphasis is let's get this 100% right, so that when, when we do press on the gas, we're really going to see an impact.

So our goal is to get our level of profitability by the start of 2025 and to get our level of productivity, probably more like 2026. That's the plan. So Anders, do you back?

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah, just one additional comment on that. You mentioned GBP 6 million average per store. That includes, obviously, the Rolex flagships and so forth. So these stores are not of that magnitude, just to put it into something. So in terms of the buyback, we closed off the quarter with GBP 50 million of cash. Obviously, subsequent to that, we've now closed the deal with EJ. So actually, we've drawn down on the facility. So at the moment, we're prioritizing growth through investment in our showrooms, new stores, and acquisitions. As always, we're engaged in several of these conversations, as you know, and I think that the best use of your funds at the moment is to invest it back into the business.

And obviously, with cost of capital being what it is, you know, we've always said that we're comfortable with a leverage of about 1.5-2 times. Well, cost of capital obviously has gone up a bit, so at the moment, if we can avoid, you know, going into debt, we would. Unless, of course, we find a good acquisition.

Jon Cox
Head of European Consumer Equities, Kepler Cheuvreux

Thanks for that. I want to just sneak in a couple of follow-ups. Just on the Rolex CPO scheme, which seems to have, you know, really done very well in the U.S., particularly. Can you talk a little bit about profitability and pricing? Because there are some reports that prices of Rolex CPO are coming down. There's obviously the stuff on Govberg out there, as well, and what that means for your, you know, overall group profitability. And then just a second one, on the exit rate, for the U.K. and Europe. I'm wondering if you can just push you a little bit on a figure, and maybe you could also talk a little bit on H2 and what you think the U.K. could possibly do.

You know, would it be in line with the exit rate, or do you think, you know, you shouldn't get too carried away and maybe, you know, mid-single digit in the U.K. in H2, and, you know, to make the guidance, it's all going to be about the U.S. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

So, Rolex CPO and CPO generally, you know, we emphasize our experience that if you look for the last 18 months, prices have been coming down the secondary market, and it's very much been communicated and expressed and understood by all you folks. So that's what's been going on. During that whole time, and as a result, the secondary market has gone down because of the reduced prices and reduced values. What we understand is that volume has held up very well, but it's not a market that we obviously have been involved in in a way to this point. But during that whole price, you know, repositioning, we maintained our margin and in the U.S., we doubled our sales and in the U.K., not far behind it.

So we're in a different market. I think we're a different proposition to the consumers. Getting a beautiful, you know, watch from us and getting the advice and the reassurance from us, and in our stores in particular, or supported by our Virtual Boutique, folks online, getting that confidence and reassurance allows us to sell at prices that just make sense from a margin standpoint. Our goal has always been that we would not impact on profitability, so neither accretive nor dilutive. That's the goal. It's a lower gross margin, but then it has lower other areas of spend behind it. And our goal has been, you know, like I say, not to impact on overall profitability. So far, so good in all of that.

Slight negative impact initially in that, you know, that Rolex are authenticating all of the products. A lot of the stock that we had initially had all been already reconditioned and authenticated, so there was a bit of a double dip from a cost standpoint there. You know, impact to your margin, you know, one or two points maybe, but very confident we'll maintain margin and profitability and see it as a, you know, very significant growth opportunity for us. Yeah, actually, the UK, yes, good in October, mid-single digit-ish. All I'd say about the second half, we obviously the projects I talked about that disrupted us a wee bit in Q2 are gonna be big contributors, pretty much as we speak and for the second half.

We've got visibility and a lot of projects and supply. We're not anticipating the consumer becoming a lot more positive. I think some possibility that they might with a bit more certainty over interest rates and at least, you know, less concern that they're gonna go up further. We're very prepared, as we always are, and very enthusiastic about the holiday season. It's about to come up. But overall, I can't give you any more split of the numbers. We've given our guidance. We're confirming it for the year. We've stuck with it the whole year and confident we can deliver.

Jon Cox
Head of European Consumer Equities, Kepler Cheuvreux

Great. Congratulations. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Thanks, John.

Operator

Our next question comes from Daria Nasledysheva from Bank of America. Daria, your line's now open. Please go ahead.

Daria Nasledysheva
Equity Research Analyst, BofA Securities

Good morning. This is Daria from Bank of America, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. Could I please confirm if your current positive trading commentary refers to year-over-year dynamic and whether this commentary actually refers to both UK and the US? So just to clarify that. And my second one would be, would you be able to please provide any color of how much of margin pressure this half is coming from interest-free credit out of the contraction? So just trying to understand contribution of net margin versus OpEx. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Great. Yeah, morning. Thanks for the question. So, our U.S. business has been very consistently strong, as you've seen. It was 11% Q1, it's 11% Q2. You know, and we're confident that it will continue to be strong. And there is a structural growth opportunity in the U.S. that I think we and others are proving in terms of, you know, investing in the market and stores and client service, that there's a really positive response. So, you know, for example, we're just, in the next couple of days, we will open a really nice store in Orlando, a Rolex boutique. It was a 1,000-sq-ft store that we were in for the best part of 10 years. We're now moving into a 3,000-sq-ft beautiful Rolex store.

You know, that clearly will have a positive impact. We've got some other projects of that nature. UK, the project impact is certainly bigger in the second half positively, whereas it was more negative in the first. But... And I think, as I said, we're not expecting or planning for a change in mood in the UK. We'll be enthusiastic about Christmas, but we're expecting the consumer to remain cautious and that caution to, you know, probably remain for quite a lot of calendar 2024. IFC, Anders?

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

In terms of the profitability for the half, obviously, IFC was and had been, as we pointed out when we did our Q1 update, you know, the, we haven't specified exactly how much that was, but you can do the math. So about 12% or so of our sales is on credit. You can take the interest rate differential and come up with a number if you want specific. Less leverage than what we normally see because of lower sales growth. We expect that to improve, as we see the annual year-on-year improvement coming through in terms of sales, because the comps are gonna be a bit softer going into the second half versus what we had in the first half.

Daria Nasledysheva
Equity Research Analyst, BofA Securities

Thank you both. Thanks a lot.

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Thank you.

Operator

... Our next question comes from Jonathan Pritchard from Peel Hunt. Jonathan, your line's now open. Please proceed.

Jonathan Pritchard
Retail Analyst, Peel Hunt

Thank you very much, and morning, all. Just to follow up on IFC. It doesn't really feel as though there's a great deal of correlation between IFC penetration and interest rates. But even having said that, if you think that people's expectations on interest rates are sort of steadying, do you, do you sense that IFC might become even a tailwind in the second half annualized? But do you think with, with interest rate expectations having stabilized, that the percentage of penetration might actually come down and actually therefore become a tailwind in the second half? And then just another quickly on the wait list. I know you mentioned that you'd had good conversion, but just, just 30 seconds on, on customer behavior when they get the phone call.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

IFC, understand.

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Well, if we start off with IFC, I mean, we've been trading through. I've been around for 10 years here. So the penetration of IFC has been pretty stable actually over the course of the years. So I don't think it's gonna change the consumer's behavior. There's always gonna be a segment of the consumer that rather would spread their payments over a period of time. So we haven't seen a real, you know, significant change in that cohort. So we don't expect any headwinds, or for that matter, tailwinds coming out of that, so.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah. Well, I'd just add to it that when with a change, the whole application of interest-free credit in the U.S. when we acquired Mayors.

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

And UK.

Anders Romberg
CFO, Watches of Switzerland Group

So in the US, obviously, we've seen actually, you know, credit programs creep up a little bit in the half, but it's on a less attractive offer, actually. So we manage the cost really well in that marketplace. But again, it's sitting at around 13% in the US at the moment, so no real massive swing.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah, and like I say, it used to be a bigger deal in the U.S. business. But we generally know how, obviously, the cost of subsidizing credit, so we look to try and minimize it while on, you know, on some segments of our business staying competitive. We don't offer subsidized interest on Rolex, for example, but we do on jewelry and some other watch brands.

Jonathan Pritchard
Retail Analyst, Peel Hunt

Okay.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

With regards to wait lists, the response of the consumer hasn't really changed over this calendar year. We are for the largest proportion of products that are there, customers, you know, will show up, in some cases, same day, and if not, the following day or two. So, they're very quick to come in and do their transaction and get their desired timepiece that they've been waiting for. We have said previously, some products that were only added to the wait list relatively recently, you know, maybe take a call or two. Now, some people we call, say, "I still want it, but not right now," and other people may have got a product somewhere else.

So we have a small proportion of products where not the first call results in a sale. But overall, the conversion, you know, we're looking at several years' worth of a wait list when we look at the number of products that are that are listed in, you know, our annual availability. So we're looking at several years' worth overall, and it remains clearly a core part of our business. We would love in the future for us to have more stock and more ability to convert walk-in clients. I look forward to that day, but right now, things are as they've been for the calendar year.

Jonathan Pritchard
Retail Analyst, Peel Hunt

Okay. Can I just sneak in one last question, and it's just a clarification point that the phone went a bit fuzzy when you said it on the Ernest Jones stores. Is it GBP 45 million, the turnover GBP 45 million, or is it GBP 4-5 million per store?

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

It's GBP 45 million in total.

Jonathan Pritchard
Retail Analyst, Peel Hunt

Lovely. Thanks a lot. Thanks, fellas.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

No problem, Jonathan. Thanks.

Operator

Our next question comes from Rogerio Fujimori from Stifel. Rogerio, your line's now open. Please go ahead.

Rogerio Fujimori
Equity Analyst, Stifel

Oh, hi, good morning, Brian and Anders. Two questions for me, one on average selling prices and the other on sequential trade trends. You called out average selling prices continuing to increase in Q2. Any part of the business standing out in terms of ASP gains, and have you seen any change in contribution from volume versus ASP in Q2 versus Q1? And my second question is about sequential trends in Q2 versus Q1 for your known supply-constrained watch business and jewelry in the U.S. and the U.K. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

That's you. So average selling price, we see it's still... You know, it's holding up and, and growing, across most of our luxury watch brands, predominantly due to mix. In some instances, there is a bit of carry forward of pricing, from, from actions that were taken, but it's predominantly mixed within the brands themselves. So, so we see that as a positive. Volume ASP, you know, mix between Q1 and Q2 hasn't materially changed. So it's remained in the same, sort of mix, predominantly driven by ASP and, and volume being a little bit, under pressure. So, so that's what we experienced. In terms of jewelry, obviously more exposed to sentiment in the market, so, so a bit, you know, more exposed to, impulse in terms of people's behavior.

So, so that's been trading down in volume a little bit. So that's what we experienced.

Rogerio Fujimori
Equity Analyst, Stifel

Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Louise Singlehurst from Goldman Sachs. Louise, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director, Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Hi, morning, everyone. Thank you for taking my questions. Got to add to your thinking, I said as well, but just on the Ernest Jones acquisition, can you just give us a little bit of background on that in terms of was that you practically looking to consolidate further in the UK? Has that been a discussion that's been going on for a little while? And just on the product category exposure, presumably, that gives you a little bit more on jewelry, and I just wonder if there's a bit more of an opportunity in that category that you see for the group going forward. And then secondly, just on Rolex, I have to ask the question. Obviously, the last time we had an update, there was the end of August, with Rolex talking about the acquisition of Bucherer.

I mean, is there anything that's come out that you think that we should be aware of in terms of the discussions, any changes in allocation, just to confirm that for the group? In terms of the Bond Street store, that's still on track for middle of next year for opening. I wondered if you could just confirm, you know, does that take Rolex distribution away from others? Do you get a bigger lion's share of the Rolex distribution in that area of London? Then my final question, just in terms of the U.K. and the U.S., anything by brand to call out?

I know it's a slower year for product newness, a little bit this year versus last year, but is there anything that you can call out between the U.K. and the U.S., or is it the same brand? And if so, is that really, like Cartier, IWC, you know, how's, how's Breitling doing? Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Okay, the EJ deal was, you know, I think it, it makes sense for, for both parties obviously. And it's showing as part of the Signet Group and, and that group, you know, really focus on, focus on diamond jewelry. And they have, they have been progressively less present in, in luxury watches. It's been less of a priority. But they still had, this group of stores that are, you know, nice stores with the good brands, very complementary to our network. So, kind of looking at it, it, it, it seemed an obvious thing for, for them to move on from and, and for, and for us to take on and, and blend in in our mix. We, you know, we've had, you know, passing conversations, if you like, over the, over the piece.

But then the opportunity to say, you know, does this make sense for you guys came along. We were, you know, pretty quick in response and Craig Bolton and the team, I think, have done a great job working with our teams at SAP and Signet to get this deal organized very quickly. The stores are closed. Now the stores closed as of Friday. We're in the process of making all these logistical changes, you know, stock counting and changing paper and everything else. It's always a bit of a project, but it's the kind of thing that we do very well. Actually, we've got great people executing that kind of deal. So I think it's a really good deal for both of us.

And, you know, we believe we can do a lot with these stores, in terms of... We'll convert some of them to Mappin & Webb, some to Goldsmiths. A lot of brands will stay as they are, but we will improve the product content, the depth of products. We'll improve the, you know, potential online or web-enabled or virtual boutique. There are so many things that we do that really benefits the luxury watch category that we'll be able to apply here. They do have a bit more space historically on jewelry. And, interestingly, though, you know, this coincides with us taking a real serious interest in branded jewelry.

You'll hear about it more this afternoon at the LRP, but we've done a great job with the luxury watch brands. We think we can do a great job with luxury jewelry brands. These stores will help. Yes, they will, they're in good locations, and they'll help that strategy overall. With regards to Rolex, they should have, you know, they were very clear with RNS that we submitted when the news came out, with the approval of Rolex, confirming that there is no change to how things are operated. The business will be independent. The management team stays there intact, and they'll report to our board of non-executive directors that are yet to be appointed. No change in allocation, no change in, you know, project approval processes.

And we've had it confirmed a few times, and we've had it confirmed locally with the folks we deal with in the U.K. and the U.S. So I'm very confident that there's no change with. We are the biggest and oldest retailer of Rolex. We've got the greatest visibility in projects that we've ever had going forward, so we've a very exciting few years ahead overall with Rolex. Bond Street. There was four retailers in Bond Street. Obviously, we had the store there, the boutique there, that's now becoming this big store. We also had the store Mappin & Webb, but there was Bentley and Asprey before. So now the four has come down to one.

The expectation, of course, the one store that will be. It'll be a magnificent store. It's the flagship in Europe. It will do more than what was done combined before, and obviously, that does take allocation of product to make a lot happen.

Louise Singlehurst
Managing Director, Equity Research, Goldman Sachs

Thank you. And then just in anything in terms of the brands and brand performance or price points? Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Oh, my apologies. I missed that one. But then obviously, the registration of entry is business, so supply-constrained business for another year... Every term that, that's as we've reported, the list stays, they were as healthy as they are in conversions, pretty much as they are. Inevitably, there's a bit of move because on the brands, depending upon, you know, how much new product impact or might be impacting, supply and so on. In terms of a trend, consumer trend, I'd probably point towards when, particularly in the U.S., higher value is going very well. We are in great locations for all that, of course, places like Vegas, which is a fantastic business for us.

But also New York and the department stores, we only have a great business with high-end clients and high-value transactions. Probably a bit more, you know, collector-type activity going on. We just hosted the GPHG, well known as the Watch Oscars, which are predominantly smaller and independent brands. Some of the big guys are there, too. But there was a huge interest in the U.S. in this category of independent brands, where there was overall more innovation and interest, if you like, at a product level. So definitely, that's been a very good category for us. None of the brands individually are huge, but collectively, that's become a really nice category for us, and we're picking up traction in that category, actually, here in the U.K.

So we see that as a positive mix. Obviously, pre-owned is an impact, as well, a very positive one. And pre-owned will become a big sector for us, and we've definitely underplayed in that patch for ever up until now, but we're gonna give it high priority attention.

Kate Calvert
Head of Retail Research, Investec

Brilliant. Thank you very much.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Hey, Louise, thanks.

Operator

As a reminder, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. Star one on your telephone keypad. Our next question comes from Thierry Cota from Societe Generale. Thierry, the line is now open. Please go ahead.

Thierry Cota
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Yes. Yes, good morning. Thank you for taking my question. It's a follow-on question, really. Volumes were under pressure, so it seems my assumptions may be wrong on the sales growth breakdown for Q2. On the U.K., I thought that it could be fair to estimate volume flat and price mix sort of exactly offset by temporary store closures. And in the U.S., the low teens growth rate, I thought would be a sort of 50/50 price mix and volume contribution. So, can you tell me if these make sense, or where would be the mistakes, please?

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

No, I mean, as I said, it's predominantly growth has come from higher average selling price. It hasn't really been that much of a volume play in the quarter. And that's valid both for the U.K. as well as the U.S., because in these pop-up stores and so forth that Brian alluded to, of course, we're gonna sell the Rolexes that are there. So it's the volume brands that actually, you know, tends to underperform a bit when we do this stores.

Thierry Cota
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Okay, so the U.S. is, the 11% is essentially price mix, in fact?

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

The vast majority of it is price, yes, because we're selling a lot of high-end brands, volume.

Thierry Cota
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Okay, great. Just the volume under pressure, can you comment around it? Is it related to demand? Is it related to product availability? I mean, what could be the color?

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah. You know, I think there's an acknowledged, you know, general softening overall in the market. There's no escaping that. I do think that the world of watches is less affected because of the supply-demand dynamics that are there. The fact that, as we've said, often the US market really is underdeveloped. There are a lot of high-end clients and other clients so to that need to see the stores and, you know, need to have the experience and so on. So the fact that we are investing in others and presenting watches to that market, so, you know, clearly stimulating and addressing that underdevelopment overall.

So you know, what we've said is that, you know, the macro situation, if you like, is probably gonna remain as it is today through 2024 and thereafter improve. But in the meantime, investing in the world of watches, we have proven is a very financially smart and lucrative thing to do. Our new store investments, we're getting paybacks between two and three years. Our acquisitions have given us great paybacks as well. So, you know, despite the general kind of economic situation that's there, I think there's a lot of good reasons to be optimistic and, you know, positive about the potential in the world of watches generally, and for us specifically, with the model that we have and the potential for our market share gain.

Thierry Cota
Equity Analyst, Société Générale

Okay, great. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Kate Calvert from Investec. Kate, your line is now open. Please go ahead.

Kate Calvert
Head of Retail Research, Investec

Morning. Thanks so much. Just two quick ones from me. Can I just probe you on your plans for the 19 Ernest Jones stores? I think you said 5 are mono. Will all the others sell watches, or do you have plans for some of these to be part of the jewelry-only trial stores? The second question is, could you talk about the performance of American Dream, please, versus your expectations? Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

The EJ stores, yes, it's five mono brands, so that will obviously remain as they are, and 14 multi-brands, of which five are becoming Mappin & Webb and nine will be Goldsmiths. They'll all sell, I mean, they all do sell watches today. They'll probably sell a bit more. They'll be productive, more productive, I would think, overall in watches. So no huge change in the mix of what they've been selling, and to the extent there's any change, it will be in favor of watches versus jewelry. That said, we are putting a huge emphasis, and we're very confident about our ability to really grow our diamond jewelry category. You'll hear much more about it this afternoon. These stores do help.

They, they have, they have great awareness, they have great client database, they have really good store staff that, that really know jewelry as well as watches, and probably even better than, in fairness. So they, they will contribute. But in principle, when you see these stores as Mappin & Webb and Goldsmiths stores, you'll recognize them with, you know, as being in line with everything else that we do with the, with those facades here. Anything to do, David?

David Hurley
Group Deputy CEO and President of North America, Watches of Switzerland Group

Yeah, we're really delighted with American Dream. I think that, first of all, if you look at the mix of product outside of Rolex, we've started off stronger than we did in both Hudson Yards and Soho. So we've seen a real, great sales across all of the brands that we have there. And that mall is still developing as well. So we've got a lot of stores around us yet to open, like Gucci and Balenciaga, et cetera, that will probably not open until early next year. So really strong start. We've got a great team there as well, and we've had great feedback from our brand partners, both on the design and the team.

Kate Calvert
Head of Retail Research, Investec

Great. Thanks very much.

David Hurley
Group Deputy CEO and President of North America, Watches of Switzerland Group

Thank you.

Operator

Our next question comes from Antoine Belge from BNP. Antoine, the line is now open. Please go ahead.

Antoine Belge
Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research, BNP Paribas Exane

Yes, hello, good morning. Two question on my side. First of all, a broader question about the competitive landscape, especially if we leave aside Rolex, so I'm thinking more about Cartier and the Swatch brand, et cetera. Usually, when there is a soft economic period, watch wholesalers tend to destock and be a bit more cautious. So are you seeing this, you know, in terms of your competitors, especially the sort of smaller players? And also yourself, I mean, looking at your current inventory in your stores, you know, how does it look like, are you seeing a bit more slow movers in your own inventories? And then my second question, also quite broad.

For high-ticket items like watches, sometime in the past, you know, it's about the feel-good factor, not just about money, but also how you feel. And so, with regards to the event in the Middle East, I mean, do you think that this could potentially impact, you know, sometime there is also what people refer to as a guilt factor, when there are things happening in the world, maybe consumer are not in a good mood to spend. So, you know, if you could share your thought about that. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

So, on the competitor landscape that you mentioned, we don't know, you know, obviously, what our competition are doing, stocking or whatever. We do know that we're outperforming the market. We are. We learn enough about kind of overall trends that the brands are having in markets, and we can obviously calibrate our performance with those brands. But we've been consistently outperforming and gaining share. We do have bigger stores. We invest more in client experience and marketing and events and so on. You know, as I mentioned earlier, we have such a great choice of brands and one of our great strengths, obviously, is the choice and selections that we give.

We've expanded what we offer now with a lot of the experience we've had in the past. So bringing in other brands that either create interest or directly, you know, increase in business overall. So we are doing fine with all of these brands. Our stock situation's pretty healthy overall. We have caught up in some areas where there was a stock shortage if we came back out, you know, a couple of years ago. But generally speaking, we obviously monitor, you know, our open to buy, our performance, as we've always done and discuss with the brands. We have great analytics on our numbers that we get from SAP, so we can see trends, we can look at stock coverage, weak coverage, and all that, and we're on it.

So those, we're in a healthy position. We'll get into the holiday season, I think, in a healthy position. I'm not expecting it to be an unusually great season. Probably similar to last year overall, but, you know, maybe the mood will be a wee bit better. And if it is, we're certainly prepared to take advantage of it. But anyway, overall, no issues on stock. You know, I take your point that we're all worried about what's happening in the world, whether it's in Ukraine or more recently in the Middle East, and it definitely affects, you know, people's mood and confidence. So that's undoubtedly the case. But it's in those circumstances that we're doing the numbers that we've just reported.

that we're planning ahead with our business and not expecting geopolitically the world to change for the good or the better, you know, and what we're looking at. So but yeah, I mean, I would mention that what we experienced and what we saw interestingly from the Deloitte study when they asked about the attitude of watch consumers, people do regard watches as a hedge against inflation. I think it was almost 40% of consumers who are buying watches with investment, you know, as part of the criteria. Say that luxury watches are a definite hedge against inflation, and I think that's proven to be the case historically.

You know, as long as inflation is, you know, what it's been, you know, I think, you know, watches can even benefit.

Antoine Belge
Head of Luxury Goods Equity Research, BNP Paribas Exane

Thank you very much.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

You're welcome.

Operator

Our next question comes from Piral Dadhania from RBC. Piral, your line's now open. Please go ahead.

Piral Dadhania
Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay, thank you. Morning, everybody. So I have two, and apologies if the first one's been asked, but I was just wondering if you could give an update on the performance of the non-supply-constrained brands in Q2. I appreciate in the U.K., the macro is not particularly positive, but perhaps in the U.S., where you've done low double-digit growth in Q2 again, just want to understand the dynamic and whether there's any shift there between how the two categories of watch brands are performing. And then secondly, my question is just on Rolex products, Rolex new product availability in store. My understanding is there are some retailers in the U.S. who do have Rolex availability of new product in store that customers can walk in off the street and buy.

I was just wondering if in any of your locations, either in the U.S. or elsewhere, that situation exists, or whether everything from a supply constraint brand perspective is still being sold off waiting list. Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Piral, can I just check when you say, new product available, do you mean new product of any of Rolex, or do you mean new introductions?

Piral Dadhania
Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Sorry, I mean like new as in not CPO, not-

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Okay.

Piral Dadhania
Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

published. Yeah.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Okay. Yep. Okay. I mean, I think as I said earlier, there's always ups and downs on brand performance, which we look at and analyze and get to understand. And year-on-year, there actually is, you know, a slight negative year-on-year in terms of the impact on new products in this quarter. Doesn't indicate anything. It's more or less a coincidence. Some brands went through, you know, obviously, they get through the cycle of their product families and update them, you know, sequentially. And consequently, some seasons will be big because of redoing a complete family, and, you know, incomparable seasons will be a bit less. So it doesn't indicate anything with regards to demand or anything else.

But you do get an impact, depending on the volume of new products that have been introduced and delivered, you know, for a quarter. So we have a bit of ups and downs there. In terms of consumer demand that you have said, I think an interesting trend in both markets is towards, you know, the independent and, you know, smaller brands overall, and which we think is a really healthy interest in horology. Probably coincides with, you know, this younger cohort that's definitely bought into our category. It's hugely influenced, you know, by digital activity, the social media, the ability to research watches, and we think that's a hugely healthy trend, and there's that.

We can detect that in what's happening in the market and what we are responding to. Like I mentioned, GPHG, that we did the presentation of in New York just a couple of weeks ago, was huge in terms of interest, both online and people physically coming to the store overall. The availability of product in store, you would say, you know, you know, good luck to anybody that's managed to get into a situation of being able to present product in store. What we've always done actually in the US is the US Rolex team have always liked there to be some availability of the products for the...

And even, you know, when supply was, our demand was kind of off the scale, if you like. We always like to have some product there that just allows us to have a bit of dynamism in the store. And that may be what you've experienced going on in the U.S. Yeah, I mean, I think, you know, in some ways, over the last couple of years, we've almost educated the customer not to expect anything in our cases. And we've worked with our, you know, high-demand brand partners in the U.S. so that we randomly push some timepieces into our stores from time to time. It's not a set day or hour, or we'd have queues outside the door.

But it does encourage people to come in and check our stores on a periodic basis.

Piral Dadhania
Equity Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Thank you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

You're welcome.

Operator

We currently have no further questions, so I would like to hand back to the management team for closing remarks. Over to you.

Brian Duffy
CEO, Watches of Switzerland Group

Thanks, Piral. Thanks, everybody, for your questions. We'll probably see some of you this afternoon at LRP presentation. But overall, we're happy with the quarter. Very happy to confirm our guidance for the year. Happy to have completed our long-range plan. It feels like it's been a lifelong exercise, but we're there on it and look forward to presenting it today. Thanks very much to our teams, as ever, for doing the great job that they do. That wraps up the session. Thank you.

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. Thank you for joining. You may now disconnect your lines.

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