Good afternoon. Welcome to the Zotefoams PLC Interim Results Investor Presentation. For this recorded presentation, investors will be in listen-only mode. Questions are encouraged and can be submitted anytime by the Q&A tab situated on the right-hand corner of your screen. Simply type in your question and press send.
The company may not be in a position to answer every question received during the meeting itself, however, the company will review all questions submitted today and publish responses where appropriate to do so. Before we begin, I'd like to submit the following poll. I'd now like to hand you over to David Stirling, CEO. Good afternoon.
Good afternoon, everyone, welcome to our interim presentation. I'm joined by Gary, our CFO, we'll just dive straight in then. We think about the business in three separate business units: polyolefin foams and High-Performance Products or HPP, both of which are manufactured using a unique autoclaved technology, from facilities in the U.K., in Kentucky, North America, and Poland.
All of our HPP products, the foams are manufactured in the U.K., the U.K. facility also makes the polyolefin foams, as do Kentucky and Poland. Extrusion technology is a very small part of our business in terms of revenues, but more so in terms of cost. We're investing quite significantly to develop some application spinoffs from that technology, we'll cover that later. The business strategy is one of applying those unique technologies into chosen markets where we think we have the opportunity to be a market leader. That's based around creating differential advantage that benefits us and our customers.
Our strategy is one of organic growth. We have in the past, some, done some very small bolt-on acquisitions, really it's about organic growth in these interesting markets. There's plenty of interesting markets out there. In the period, six months to June this year, we increased revenue by 9%. Our High-Performance foams were up 11% and our polyolefin foams up 10%. What's not there is MuCell. It's a very small number, and we'll cover that later on.
With those better sales and better pricing, we've improved the gross margin, up nearly 400 basis points to 32.8% and a very large increase, 30% increase in profit before tax. As I said earlier, we are investing significantly in our MuCell, stroke resource application, and if we exclude those costs, our profit before tax increased by 49% to GBP 9.4 million.
Earnings per share up 22%. We have strong cash generation. We've paid back in the last 12 months, GBP 10 million of debt. Our interim dividend increased by 4.5% or just over. Basically showing the confidence that we have in the business currently, and our very strong cash generation and relatively, relatively low debt levels, with a multiple of 1.1.
Strategic highlights. One is how we've actually delivered that top line, bottom line, that margin recovery, basically through realignment of our selling prices with the costs over the last two years. The cost base has really jumped all over the place with the rising energy costs, polymer costs going up very rapidly from, from lows experienced during COVID, really well overshooting the long-term average, now realigned with that long-term average. Of course, labor costs, you know, we're seeing that coming through the system now, as well as a whole load of other industrial inflation in freight and associated costs, along with supply chain disruptions.
To have a period where those input costs have basically moderated, the selling prices have, have got caught up and are now appropriately balanced with them, particularly in our polyolefin business, we'll see that margin recovery very strongly. In our high-performance business, we, we're feeling very good about the aviation market.
Again, not showing through there in the first half numbers, but that's just a timing-related issue. With Nike, who are about a third of our business now, we have an exclusivity agreement. We supply foams for high-end running shoes, because the materials that we make have really good energy return, better than anything else on the market. That exclusivity agreement, we have extended for another six years to the end of 2029, showing very strong alignment between us and Nike.
Finally, strategically, we have been developing the ReZorce barrier material for consumer packaging. We've really focused that around cartons, where we believe we've got a significantly different product that's out in the market with a better carbon footprint. To commercialize that, we've signed a joint development agreement with a world-leading packager of beverages.
And that's looking basically to, to jointly develop into a commercial trial in the first quarter next year with a European retailer. I've got an example of that package type that you will see, hopefully, on the shelves in a few months' time. And at the appropriate point, I'll switch the camera on, and you can have a quick look.
Just to let you know, the, the, the profit we have delivered, I said, excluding the resource-specific costs, we've shown those there, so you can, you can see exactly how much we're spending. It's a decent amount of money. We believe this is a high opportunity project. It is higher risk for, for foam homes for a number of reasons, but as we look at this, the technology really does something very different in the market, and there's a lot of interest in it, so well worth investing in, we believe.
The shape of the business is, is very similar to we have seen in the past. Geographically, diversified. Industrially or, or by markets, again, diversified. That's a, a six-month-old slide on the bottom left, but not changed significantly in the first half this year.
Really, we've delivered that growth through, if you think about pricing within the polyolefin foam business, volumes in our HPP business, and both with an FX foreign exchange tailwind from the US dollar predominantly. I'll hand over to Gary to talk us through the financial review, and I'll come back to talk in a bit more detail about the business unit segments.
Thanks, David. Start with the income statement, abbreviated. Just a reminder, we do, we do share adjusted numbers here, which is, is often for our analyst community. The impact is very minimal versus our reported numbers. It's about GBP 130 thousand this year, not a lot different, GBP 120 thousand last year, pretty minimal impact, larger impact to our other businesses, I guess.
The adjustment is really to take out the impacts of amortization on acquired intangibles. For us, the acquired intangibles are assets that formed part of the Musa acquisition many, many years ago. We're, we're starting to get down to zero there. Just background there.
As David said, revenue up GBP 5.6 million or 9%, up to GBP 64.5 million. GBP 3.3 million of that is currency benefit. That flows through to gross profit, up GBP 4.1 million, at GBP 21.2 million. Obviously, partly led by the group revenue increase, but also by that 390 BIPS increase that David referred to.
Really driving elements of the gross profit increase are the full year impact of the polyolefin foam price adjustments of 2022. We made three during that first year, first half period, and the final one wasn't until May, so the full year impact there takes effect, is visible in our numbers this year. We've seen raw material costs come down.
They're similar over the whole year. They've been coming down since they, since they reached a peak during last year. They've been running around the longer term, long-term average for most of this first half. We have seen them drop off further in July and August. I've got a chart that I'll take you through on that later. Energy costs have stabilized at a higher level. They're up 20% versus this time last year. We're pretty much all ahead for the whole of this year now, so we're pretty confident that is where we will be. We have good visibility over that.
You know, offsetting some of that, some of that, sale and BIPS impact, are some costs related to the energy. Labor inflation, as you, as you would imagine, is up across all of our regions. We've also been increasing our operating investments and our costs in key manufacturing capability, both in Poland, as we increase capacity, and run that plant more. That's really been the case this year.
Also in the USA, where we've made reference in the past few reporting periods to inefficiencies and operating opportunities, which we've been grasping, both by hiring more people, better qualified people, and tackling some of the challenges that we've been faced, which have arisen really from the COVID time and our inability to work closely with the guys out there. If you look at costs, distribution, admin costs, distribution, not a lot of movement, not very much driven by business activity and labor costs, whereas the administrative costs are up GBP 2 million, GBP 2 million, as you can see, up 29%.
400 of that, 400 of that is the is the hedging, where the actual hedging activity pros and/or benefits, GBP 1,000 negative for this first six-month period. Also we've been investing more higher in our technical costs across the group, primarily the quality department, and in and added to our investment, increased our investment in resource. That takes us to an adjusted operating profit of GBP 8.6, up 29% in the period, and a, and a margin up 2%. Interest charge, if you look at the P&L, doesn't look like much, GBP 1.1 to GBP 0.9, but it's actually greater than that.
It's actually up £500,000. That's in part due to the fact that last year, in the first half, we took a £300,000 pound charge as a result of costs that we had capitalized relating to our financing facility. As we renewed the facility last year, we hadn't fully amortized and had to take it in one, in one go. The £500,000 is, of course, related to interest rates almost entirely. We draw down debt both in dollars and in euros. That's the consequence. We do have a little bit of benefit coming through the fact that our leverage has reduced. We get, we're a ratchet system in terms of the margin.
We've got some favorable element there, but of course, the general tide and increase in interest rates across the world have impacted us, too. That leads us to adjusted profit before tax, up 29%, GBP 7.5 million. Tax charge really is solely related to the change in corporation tax rate. We're now at 25%. Something's just gone. Oh, I can hear myself, hear myself twice there. That's purely the corporation tax rate, leaving us with adjusted profit after tax, up 22%. David mentioned EPS, mentioned interim dividend, the interim dividend as well, up 4.6% at 2.28 pence.
If I move on to the abbreviated balance sheet, the key observations there are, first and foremost, intangible assets moving upwards entirely due to our resource capitalization of development costs. PP&E is down. For the first half, our additions are around £1.6 million. That falls well short of what is expected for the year and is shared by the analysts, which is around £10 million.
The spending will be significantly higher in the second half of the year. As at this point in the year, we're down, we're lower, additions are lower than depreciation, plus a bit of FX. Means that, as you can see, PP&E is down 4%. That will change in the second half.
Other asset, other assets are up, driven entirely by our by our hedges, and the reval of those hedges as at June 30. Net working capital, I'll go into the detail of that on the cash flow slide that comes next, but as you can see primarily here, there's little movement in total on the balance sheet from this period to the previous period.
That leaves us with the net debt. Net debt of GBP 28.3 million, down GBP 10 million on last year. Pretty similar, up GBP 500,000 on the year-end position. Leverage, as a result, is at 1.1, down a notch from the 1.2 at the year end, and down quite considerably against the 2.0 that we reported this time last year.
Just a reminder on our debt facility, which we hold with Handelsbanken and NatWest, GBP 50 million multi-currency RCF. The leverage is 3.5, so significantly above where we are at the moment, where we really ever have been through this through the last 5, 7 years of pre-COVID and the capacity increases. We do retain an accordion of GBP 25 million, should something, an opportunity arise.
This particular facility is linked to ESG. Very small financial impacts of that. A few bips up and down based on the achievement of targets. We met all of our targets in our 1st year last year, which gives us a few bips benefit. That will continue, obviously, on for the next few years, too, until the end of the facility, which is March 2027. On the cash flow...
Let me just change that. On the cash flow, again, good profit performance drives, you know, as a starting point for cash flow movement and the good cash generation. I mentioned the actual working capital position is pretty similar to last year, and indeed, the movement in working capital is similar from January to June this year as it was last year, around GBP 6.5 million versus GBP 5.8 million last year. As you can see, the makeup is quite different.
The primary driver in this six-month period is inventory, and that really relates to two particular factors. Firstly, this time last year, we experienced quite a lot of scarcity in critical and key high-value raw materials for our AZO business, which has also just not been able to deliver. We've taken that on board.
We've ensured that we build safety stocks for these high margin AZO opportunities, and that's really driven a good GBP 1 million worth of inventory build this year. On top of that, for the last four years, pretty much since the start of COVID, we pretty much have not bought any PBF, any of the key raw material that goes into the aviation space.
We had sufficient, the market fell significantly, and we've, we've been drawing on that inventory through COVID and up until now. This year is the first year we're, we're, we're purchasing PBF materials again. That particular purchase came in just before the half year, and as a result, timing related, we have a significant boost in that inventory.
Good news, because it means that, you know, we've got a The market's recovering, David will talk about that, and we're, we're replenishing stocks to meet that. That gives us cash generated from operations of GBP 5.8 million, up, up, up slightly on last year. Income, interest and income tax, I think that's evident. High interest rates, high interest charges, high, high income tax being paid.
The last couple of years, we have had some rebates that have reduced the overall tax paid. We're pretty clean now. There's no, there's none of that in this first six-month period. Moving on then, as I said, you know, you can see the capital there. You can see the GBP 1.6 I referred to on the PPE, which is what, which is, which will increase in the second half, and you can see the increase in the intangibles, most of which is, it is the resource investment. If I move on then to my final slide, which is a slide I've been presenting the last few periods.
That is where I look at the three key areas of cost and influence around the business. Slightly amended the look of the chart for those that recorded over the last few periods, but still saying, sending the same message. This is our LDPE polyolefin foam primary raw material, and the evolution of that over the past few years.
The blue is the core ethylene price, and the red is the spread, giving you the total price that we've been paying for LDPE over the past years. You can see the spike and the increase up to EUR 2,250 a ton, which we reached around mid-year last year, which compares to the historical average of around EUR 1,300-EUR 1,400.
You can see that came down rapidly towards the beginning of this year, and stayed fairly stable up until about now. We've kind of the average price has been, through this year, has been fairly similar to what we've historically experienced. You can see that as at today, and indeed through July, August, the spread is very low, and we're benefiting from that, but we expect that to recover.
That is not a sustainable margin we would expect from the producers, so we expect that to return probably in Q4. The energy costs through our three main sites are of course our autoclave technology plants. Three quarters of our entire energy is consumed on site here in Croydon.
As I said, those, those prices have stabilized. They're about 20% higher this six-month period versus ... Purchased ahead. We weren't doing that last year. It, it was very difficult to be doing that last year. This year we've got more visibility and, and, and it's more-- the prices are relativized, and consequently, you know, we expect those prices to remain at around the 20% above last year position.
The final of the three primary influences is the foreign exchange. Most of you will know we're very-- we very much invoice outside of sterling. 90% of our, of our invoices are either in US dollar or in euro. The euro is historically and remains, remains, naturally hedged.
We, we invoice all of our AZO business into Europe in euros, and we purchase all of that LDPE in euros. We and we purchase quite a bit of our HPP in euros, too, so the consequence is a natural hedge. That's different with HPP, where almost all of the invoice, all of the, the products are invoiced in dollars, and where only a small share, and it's a part of our footwear business, only a small part of that is purchased in dollars.
We're very long on the dollar, and, and take the benefits and the hits, subject to where, where the exchange rate is moving. We had a 5% average decrease in the, in, in the exchange rate this half versus last half. That generated GBP 3.3 million of revenue benefit, GBP 1.1 million of PBT impact, after the GBP 400,000 of hedging costs that I referred to earlier. With that, I will pass back to David.
Thanks, Gary. Business review. As I said, we talk about, think about our business in three main business units. The first of those, which is 58% of group sales, is our AZO polyolefin. Gary's talked quite a lot about the cost side of it, so we'll focus on the revenue side, up 10%. We have basically achieved that by selling prices and product mix, with a little bit of help from currency, offset by falling volumes.
The falling volumes really related to continental Europe and the rest of the world, whereas North America and the U.K. were relatively flat. If you've been following the news, I think, the relatively soft European industrial economy in the second quarter, it will be no surprise to you.
We have got, we have got, you know, a bit of product mix changes in there. As our prices have gone up over the period, customers have come back to us and said: "You know, what, what can we do?" And often that is, "Well, buy a lighter density foam. It costs less. We use less raw materials, it's got a lower carbon footprint, or we've got foams with recycled content," et cetera.
Where, you know, these are take a little while to substitute the, the more premium materials because people need to, to adjust their equipment, or they need to specify them, or test them, or whatever. That's sort of happening now as people look for the better value, lower carbon footprint materials.
That right product, as, as well as right price, is very much part of our agenda just now. As we see industrial deflation, you know, that applies to us. We had put our prices up, not this year, but throughout last year, and we're seeing the full period benefit of that this year in polyolefin, along with the different cost base.
We have actually now started removing some of the surcharges we put on in pricing. Sometimes that's been replaced by a fixed price, sometimes it's just been removed, depending on the margins, the application, the marketplace, et cetera. What we've seen is the segment profit margin-...
you know, grow very significantly, up to 13.2%, which is a, a fairly decent performance, and it's in line where it's been in the past there. If we go on to our High-Performance Products, which are 41% of group sales, different story here. Revenue up 11%, primarily driven by sales volume, and again, a bit of currency tailwind. Not really pricing increases in these segments in the period.
We are seeing some increases in raw material prices and the more technical materials coming through the back end of this year, and our pricing is being adjusted through, in, in, for example, the aviation sector, but more likely to impact 2024 than this year.
Overall, that 11% growth, footwear up 14%, and footwear now is 35% of group sales. With Nike, we have a clear contract where prices are adjusted every six months in relation to our input costs and FX, so that's something where the margin moves around a little bit just depending on timing, but in the period, it was fairly similar to the last period.
Aviation down a little bit, 9% in sales. Not concerned about that at all. That's really to do with timing and offtake. What we're seeing in the segment is that we're having higher aviation build rates, particularly with us, we are more exposed to Boeing. They've got high order books.
Those build rates are, are still not where they were pre-pandemic, mainly because of supply chain constraints, not from us, but, but from other people, and therefore, you know, we are, we are seeing that increase in our very, very full forward pipeline on that. It's looking good. Tefa Insulation sales up 9%. Two major markets there are China and India.
China is, you know, has, has been a bit start, stop, because of the economy there. It's, it's ... But I was saying to someone earlier, I've never turned up for a long, long time and said, "The economy is smooth right across the world." It's just not. We take the bumps in, in the road as they come. I, I think overall, segment margin, you know, pretty much in line with where we were last year and the, the profit growing in line with the revenue. Finally, to talk about the MuCell business unit, really it's a story of refocusing.
We've taken most of the people there and focused them on our ReZorce technology, the existing MuCell licensees and some new customers in very specific markets where we know the technology works are being serviced, but majority of the team are now focusing on the ReZorce project. It's really think of it as a, a development business where the costs are the important thing, and the timing of bringing that technology to market is important.
What we've been doing, we've been working on the formulations, we've been working on the scale-up, we've been working on the downstream processing of our technology and aligning up commercial partners. We have a facility in Denmark, which we brought into the group less than a year ago, and that will be used to manufacture the ReZorce sheet, the base sheet of the material, and then we will print and create the carton preform and sell that to a packaging company. The packaging company turns it into a carton, fills it with juice, and sells it to the retailer. We have got a European retailer on board for quarter one trials next year in market.
We've got a global leader in the packaging market, signed up as a joint development partner, who will supply into that market and also help us with the challenges of putting our, our products through existing packaging machinery. That's particularly important because our technology has been designed to use existing packaging machinery where possible, to allow the infrastructure to, to support the, the resource introduction longer term.
It is primarily a high-risk, high-reward opportunity, but the global market for beverage cartons is enormous. It's about 300 billion cartons a year. We wouldn't be suitable for every such product, but a very, very significant part of the market is in scope for us.
We have, in fact, other technologies that we could use in, in various other parts of the packaging market, but we've decided at this point, really, to focus on the carton market. That's the, that's the story of the, the business units. If we just look. I've got two more slides, and then I'll talk about the outlook. Just to remind everyone, we have got a very good sustainability proposition at Zotefoams.
We've got a nitrogen-based foaming process, which makes very good use of the polymers that, that we buy in. Our products are primarily used in avoiding emissions. We make foams which are lighter, and, and those foams are used for protection, insulation, those types of things. So 85% of our revenues are from products considered green by the FTSE Russell definition. We build ESG and sustainability into all our decision-making around the business. So that's evident in some of our ESG scoring recently.
So we're coming out very high ratings across MSCI, the London Stock Exchange, Green Economy Mark, et cetera, meaning that, you know, very much in the wheelhouse for investors with sustainability funds or benchmark criteria there. In particular, if we think about the ReZorce product, what I'll do, Paul, is if we can just switch the screen off for a sec. I have here an example. This is actually a ReZorce carton, and it's made with our material. It looks and like you'd expect to see on the shelf.
It's got the standard plastic top. This can be thrown in the recycling bin, along with your high-density polyethylene milk carton. You put it in the recycling bin with the milk carton, it will be recycled in the HDPE polymer stream, that's something that we've, we've already validated. That carton is made with 30% recycled content, the product, if it is recycled, we can use our recyclate to make that carton again.
The product we've had validated by a external consultant, having about a 50% lower carbon footprint than a competitive product out there. It complies with all, I say all legislation. That's a broad claim. I wouldn't say that, because legislation is different in every region, et cetera, but the way legislation is going, it's, it's really trying to look at making materials recyclable in a circular way, so back into themselves, the same use, and we are certainly aligned with that.
We have a pilot facility, as I mentioned, in Denmark. We have a technical team based out of North America, up in Massachusetts, and we are looking to, to see how we commercialize this. That may involve a strategic partner because this is something where the market is so big, and on a global basis, this is definitely an opportunity where if we are successful, Zotefoams cannot and would not want to expect to do that alone.
That's the, the, the business as we see it. Key messages, very good revenue growth, strong PBT, up 30%. Our operating profit is up 49% of the underlying foam business. The two major things we're working on, NIKE footwear and ReZorce, we've signed milestone agreements there to support those. Good, strong cash generation and dividend up.
If we look at the full year, we are reaffirming that we remain confident that we can deliver our full-year market expectations. We've had a good start to the year, which is nice to have money in the bank, if, if you like. The short-term outlook is tempered somewhat by the industrial outlook and, and, you know, markets.
You won't be surprised to hear that, but that's okay, because in some of the other markets, like aviation, we are back-end loaded. It feels like we're taking a cautious but responsible approach to the market today. In those expectations, we do think we'll get a little bit of a headwind from the dollar, around 1.28 compared to the first half.
We expect to get some benefit from the lower polymer costs just for a short period, but through the end of this year, before they re-return to a more normal level. In line, trading in line with market expectations and lots to look forward to good progress within the business. That's the end of me and Gary's presentation. We are happy to take questions, so I'll turn over to Paul.
Fantastic. Gary, David, thank you very much indeed for your presentation. Ladies and gentlemen, do please continue to submit your questions, just using that Q&A tab, just situated on the right-hand corner of the screen. Just while the team take a few moments to review those questions submitted today.
I'd like to remind you the recording of the presentation, along with a copy of the slides and the published Q&A, can be accessed via investor dashboard. David, Gary, did have several pre-submitted questions, so perhaps we can start off the Q&A session with those, if I may. The first one reads as follows: What rival foam supplier do Adidas use in their shoes?
Adidas use something called Boost. It's a thermoplastic elastomer made by a polymer company called BASF, a German, German company, who developed some proprietary foaming technology for that. It basically turns it into little balls of foam, a bit like Styrofoam, that they then heat and weld together. It's a very different process, and it's, it's the major polymer manufacturer, major chemical company, actually, forming their own polymer.
That's great. Thank you. Next one we've got here is: What sort of margins do you hope to achieve with ReZorce? Obviously, I appreciate it's sort of early in that process.
It is. You know, I, I, I think I, I would rather pass on that. I think it's, it's a bit early to, to really say that. You know, what I will say is that there are a whole load of different drivers of this technology in different parts of the market, globally.
In some parts of the market, we're much more accepting of, of our product, and be a much higher value proposition than, than potentially others, depending on legislation, consumer preferences, et cetera, et cetera. I think it's, it's too early to give an answer to that.
What I would say is that, you know, typically, as you are growing and scaling up a business, the money goes to invest and scale rather than, you know, bottom line profit. We will see how that, that pans out, but we are looking at, very seriously, for an industrial partner to, or partners to join us on this journey.
That's great. Thank you. We've got one here about electric battery casings. Any developments with foam linings on that front?
I, I think I used this as an example in one of the other, you know, presentations maybe a year ago or six months ago. There's a whole load of industrial markets that we're looking at. Electric vehicle batteries is, is one of them. We do have some business in Asia in relation to that. It's not a major part of our business at the moment, so it's, it's, it's a, you know, it's a thinking about it, developing into, but not a major contributor at the moment.
That's great. The last one we've got here is: Are you aiming for mainland China?
Personally or... I'm, I'm not?
I, I guess that's from your operational point of view, from operations.
Well, in that context, no, we've, we've not said that we are. I think we've, You know, putting another foam plant somewhere is a very significant investment. you know, one of the things we consider is the ability to protect our intellectual property versus the market and the growth rates, et cetera. Not at the moment. We do have a facility in Kunshan, which is about an hour outside Shanghai, taking our foams and manufacturing insulation products for the local market, but no plans to go in there as a foamer of polymers at the moment.
That's great. That concludes those pre-submitted questions. You can see we've had several questions come through during the meeting itself.
Yeah.
Can I ask you just to click on that Q&A tab, perhaps start at the top and work your way through-.
Yeah.
Just read out those where appropriate to do so, and I'll pick it up at the end.
All right. Thank you. The first question is from Andrew R. In fact, lots of questions from Andrew R. Does the joint development agreement that you recently announced contain exclusivity provisions, and does it solely relate to beverage cartons? Yes, it's solely related to beverage cartons. And we haven't disclosed any other details on that, but I wouldn't take that as a yes or a no, Andrew.
Just I'm not, I'm not at liberty to go through that. What is the JDA partner contributing to the ReZorce project? Well, essentially, we are making a product that can go into a packaging machine and be turned into a carton filled with juice, for example. All of that downstream technology is, you know, today focused on a particular, we call liquid paperboard carton.
To prove that our technology can go down the filling line in a sterile environment, we can fold it, we can seal it, we can put the cap on, all under existing machine operating conditions. That's what the partner is looking at. And we're doing it in conjunction with them. Next question: Is your energy cost hedged? Wholesale energy prices have reduced significantly since last year, so your energy costs go down next year. Gary, you want to-
Do you want to do Andrew's third one afterwards then?
Oh. Yeah, just, just take them as they come. Go on. We'll, we'll jump around.
Yeah. It's before, before this one. It's just that P, right?
Yeah.
So,
Yeah.
Is your energy cost hedged? We actually purchase forward, so they're not theoretically hedged. They are. We are just buying ahead. We have a previous hiring program with our energy supplier, that as we get closer, clearly, we lift the level of purchasing, subject to forward pricing mechanisms, which weren't favorable last year. In effect, we're not hedged. We just purchase, right? We have then, obviously, we have to. There are certain limits within.
We've got a commitment, so we need to manufacture and use and utilize that amount of energy. Household energy prices have reduced significantly, so will your energy costs go down next year? If they're coming down, yes, because we're only because we've got an X amount. You know, we're almost 100% through this year.
We've got 30, say, levels of % deteriorating through maybe the first half of next year. We're pretty exposed, i.e., or we have opportunity in the second half of next year. We will capture the benefits of the movement down. We just soften the impacts of prices going up or down based on our forward hedging, forward purchasing strategy.
Okay. We, we really are taking these in order they come, so we're jumping about back to, back to ReZorce. What is the approximate planned scale of the end market trials for the European retail partner? It, it's in the tens of thousands. That's sufficient for them to judge, that, you know, there've been no sterility problems, no leakage problems, consumer reaction, the normal things you'd expect.
At, at that level, it's, you know, it's, it's hours or, or days on a machine. For us, it's not much more than that. We've got plenty of ability to scale beyond that. It's a controlled size trial, which is, which, which is perfect for us, I think. Next question, Harry, Oh, do you want to read out that again?
How much more would you pay in interest if you had to refinance all your debt tomorrow, ignoring the benefit of any fixed hedges held now? I don't know, because I haven't gone out to market to find out what the current offerings are. I would imagine they're way high-- they're higher. I mean, we, you know, our, our mechanisms are ratcheted margin above base.
So base is base, right? That would be the same, but I imagine that it, we probably... You know, we refinanced in February last year. We have, we, we have banks that are familiar with us, that I would hope therefore, rate us lower risk. But obviously, there will be some underlying factors that might might drive their internal decision-making and offers to put it up a bit.
I can't predict that. Don't know. I'm not in that, I'm not in that game, so it's hard to say. Certainly, as far as hedges, I'm not quite sure, you know, that, that doesn't really make much of a difference. I mean, in the grand scheme of things, with GBP 28 million of debt, we've got FX hedges might give us, you know, might secure GBP 2 million, one way or the other, of revenue, making very little impact on the actual numbers.
Not sure whether that's the answer, but not a lot is. Not a lot of impact from hedges, and I don't really know what the banks are offering at the moment in terms of rates, so it's hard to know. It feels hard to believe we'd get a better deal. We've got a very good deal. We timed it really well. I think we're good through 2027. I'll worry about it a bit near the time.
All right, next question from Nicholas C: Are you under price pressure from customers with falling costs, or can you hold on to selling price? There, there are certain parts of the polyolefin market where customers are looking at, you know, current polymer prices and saying, "Look, you guys' price aren't, aren't matched to that.
The polymer price has come down, you haven't changed your prices." We are, we are under discussion about, you know, what the right price is. Energy costs are higher, labor costs are higher, and other inflationary costs are in there. It's not all about that one easily, easy to get to polymer cost. We have price discussions with customers, you know, all the time, and it's about, it's about getting that right.
In some cases, I would expect that we would either switch to different products or, or right price. You know, it's against a backdrop of polymer price, which is currently low compared to the long-run average, and as Gary said, the margin over ethylene is almost zero at the moment, so that's not sustainable for the polymer price producers, and therefore, we fully expect that polymer price to jump up again.
If we go back, sort of pre-COVID, polymer price for a long time moved in a range, you know, plus or minus EUR 100 a ton, or EUR 150 a ton, and Zotefoams just absorbed the swings and roundabouts of that, gave our customers stable pricing. That's the intent. We would hope to get back to that so that, that allows the customers to get on with, like, developing their business with a kind of fixed price. It's very difficult for them to constantly reprice with their customers.
There are a few exceptions to that, like the automotive industry, we are much more focused on, if it goes down, we want a cost reduction. If it goes up, you know, don't come and ask for a price increase. We manage that in a different way, but it, it is something which is a, a, a fairly active dialogue at the moment, but it has been for two years. Why is Musa revenue reduced by 44% if it's due to already sold technology from the previous year?
I think if you look at it as a percentage, Mike, you see quite a big number. If you look at it as an absolute, it's not that big a number, but, the main movement in that. We had one customer of ours, whose customer had an intent to switch to a product, and backtracked on that intent. So our customer wasn't able to, or, or, or wasn't willing to continue to pay the fees, to maintain the exclusive license position for that. We've seen this before.
I think it's, it's, you know, my understanding of that is, I can't really tell much about it because of confidentiality, but there's a major FMCG company who were offered a lower carbon footprint, you know, recyclable product and decided to go with a higher carbon footprint, non-recyclable product because it was a bit cheaper, despite espousing quite green credentials.
I, I've seen that before, and no doubt see it again, but it might be something that comes back in the future. We'll see. Question from Neil W: While the products described make no mention of ZOTEK N commercial development, how is that going? Well, actually, Neil, we're, we're seeing right now quite a lot of interest in ZOTEK N, again, particularly in body protection-type applications and, and some other things. It's, it's, it's pretty busy right now in development.
It's relatively, compared to the rest of the business, small in revenue at the moment. It's still an active range of products. I think we've done a good work to improve those products in terms of performance, and, you know, we have been through, for example, testing for various applications, and it's, it's failed in some areas, and we've redeveloped it and passed.
It's a constantly moving, you know, forward towards the target. It, you know, it, it's, it's been... It's of high interest to a lot of people. It's not quite found its niche yet, but I'm relatively a bit more hopeful about that than I was six months ago. Can you give some detail of wage inflation in each region and what you expect going forward?
Well, I think, Scott, you know, the main body of people at Zotefoams is employed in the U.K. You know, we don't give out specific numbers on pay inflation, but it's between 5% and 10% that we've seen from April. In the U.S., in Poland, and China, you know, wage inflation is not significantly different than it is in the U.K., maybe a little bit more in Poland, because of the economy is doing really well and workers are in high demand. The other areas, it's in that, you know, high single digits% range. What is the outlook for volumes in half two, given the drop in half one?
Well, as I said, we expect, you know, a bit of weakness through Q3, particularly in the continental Europe industrial markets within the AZO business. It is a seasonal business, AZO, anyway. Q3 is usually softer, mainly because of European holidays. I think it's a bit early to say about Q4, but, you know, we are continuing to run quite hard and build some inventory, because we actually believe Q4 might end up being quite busy.
We'll see about that. Q3 certainly feels like the economies are a little bit softer and maybe a little bit inventory coming out the system, which, which, if it reverses, can reverse quite quickly, and, you know, end up with demand coming through on us with short notice, so we'll see about that. Again, Paul C: Is there still growth opportunities around non-running sports, e.g., golf shoes?
Well, the golf shoes are never gonna take a lot of foam, the more general point is, are we going to non-running? NIKE's next biggest category is basketball. We are being specified on basketball shoes, those shoes, I believe, are scheduled to be launched next year. Yes, is the answer to that. AT, the company's ROCE is low single digit. What's the long-term aim on that, Gary?
Yeah. Well, certainly, it's low single... Low. It's low at single digit, not low single digit, significantly.
Right.
You know, before our, before our capital investment, it was around 14%-15%. We put a lot of capacity in, that doesn't get filled straight away. It had a purpose to accommodate our growth plans and our increasing shift to a strategic shift towards High-Performance Products with higher margins. We're, you know, we're on our journey through that.
You know, you don't put capacity and then fill it straight away. The way... So our, you know, our expectations are, through the coming years, that we, we fill the, fill the plants with capacity. That gives us a couple of percent. That we, that we increasingly mix and rich.... either up through AZOTE or across from that, from good, from, from top, AZOTE into specified AZOTE into HPP.
That gives another few percent. MuCell will resolve itself and result MuCell with a GBP 2 million, you know, half year. If you look at last year's loss, that's a good 1.5%-2% movement. Other, you know, other smaller elements within. You know, you take, take those, that's 6%, 7%, 8%. Top it onto your nine that we're at, that takes you to 16, 17.
Our, you know, we, we, we see a clear strategy to increase that. Obviously, something can come up with a growth company, an opportunity can come up that requires capital that might drop it back, but fundamentally, we see this business as being certainly above 15.
Okay. Scott M, can you talk a little about how you picked the JDA partner, and did any partners approach you? Well, we were, we were looking for a partner who had the right level of expertise, market presence, et cetera, in the, in the packaging business, and, and specifically carton packaging to support, you know, our commercial trials.
In, in the event, the partner we have has, has all of those, so we are very happy, working with them, and they're, they're extraordinarily committed at top level to, to doing this. I think in, in thinking about these things, you've always got to, think about the benefits of really working closely with someone versus the benefits of, you know, trying to spread your resources and do different things with different people.
Here, I, I feel that, you know, we have, we, we have a really good partner. You know, we have been talking to either we approach them or they approach us, talking to quite a number of people about the ReZorce technology over the past 12 months, in, in a number of aspects, including as, as potential investors and, and, our partners, and that goes on.
It's, it's a continually changing, landscape on that. I think we... the, the team that we have put together predominantly focused on getting the end market validation. That's, that, that's something which could, really change the perception of how, how people think about this opportunity. Again, What percentage of your current cross-linked foams are actually recycled globally?
Not what can, could be, but what are in practice. Well, the reason for cross-linking foams, Neil, is that it makes them more robust and stable and, and therefore, long-lasting. Most of our applications are in things which are designed for long use. If you think about a car, you know, a wing mirror gasket in a car would last the life of a car, so 10 years.
It's not designed to be thrown away. So in that manufacturing process, there is scrap, and at the moment, globally, a very high percentage, I, I'd say, not all, but almost all of that scrap is, is seen as a valuable ReZorce. It's collected, and in fact, sold, by, by us and, and by our customers to people doing other things with it.
End of life, I, I find it almost impossible to answer that question because there are so many different applications using our foams, that, you know, I, I, I couldn't begin to tell you how much is, is recycled. I know it's practically possible, and I know that our process and the cross-linking methods we use make it easier and more beneficial to recycle than our competitors.
Over the last six months, has ReZorce taken more or less management bandwidth, and what about the next six months? Well, Scott, we have a dedicated team here. We, we have brought in people who are ex-Tetra Pak. We've brought in people who are machinery experts. We've, we've, we've got a leader who's got, you know, many, many years in the packaging industry, as well as, you know, a quality expert who, who used to run, like, on site. He was the quality and sterility manager for Coca-Cola or, or PepsiCo, I think, sites, et cetera.
We, we've built a team that has the required expertise, who are 100% dedicated here, as well as our MuCell guys and, and the guys from Denmark that we brought into the business last year. In terms of, of my time, I'm, I'm pretty involved in this. It's a decent amount of my time, and certainly, with Gary and, and with the board, it's a subject on, on every board meeting to a decent extent.
It's something we're taking very seriously, but I, I, I think we are properly resourced to deliver this at this stage. You know, along with our partners who are, you know, putting in, you know, their, their people and teams who are very key. It's a, it's a decent amount of time and effort in here. Okay, I think this is the last question.
Harry O: "How long do you think a reasonable investor should wait before judging the carton investment to be successful?" Okay. Well, I, I, I think with all developments, there are kind of critical milestones or value inflection points. You know, when the patent is issued is one of them.
When your first, you know, pre-production trial comes, when your first market trial comes, when your first revenue comes, I think all of these are, are potentially value inflection points. I, I think the big one is in-market validation. If we can get, you know, tens of thousands of cartons into the market with juice, and they are sold through on a, on a retailer, then I, I think that's a, that's a big plus.
You know, I, I, I don't think the, the market in the bigger sense, the, the packaging market is gonna be silent about this, because there haven't really been any contenders to liquid paperboard for, for forever. You know, the, the, the new technology hasn't really come out, and we know that they are struggling with, you know, some of the challenges, on sustainability, recyclability, circularity.
You know, lots of questions being asked. I, I'll probably have to do an interview or two with Packaging News or the Grocer or something along the way. I, I don't know. Is it, is it gonna be successful? We, we certainly believe so. We hope so. We're working towards that. One of the big questions is, you know, what segments of the market really value this, and, and where do we go next? We are looking to, to perhaps, you know, outline a few options on that over the next six months. We're not gonna do a market trial and then say, "What next?" We will have, we'll have plans in place for that.
Final question, I think I may have missed this earlier: "Are you progressing discussions with potential partners for other ReZorce applications, i.e., pouches, cups, trays?" Not at the moment. We are so busy with cartons, that we've decided that even though potentially there are other applications, that we are gonna focus on the carton applications at the moment.
That's fantastic. David, Gary, thank you. Thank you as always, for covering every single question we've had through. Of course, any further questions that come along, the team will be able to review those, and we'll publish responses, where appropriate, to do so on the Investami company platform. David, I don't know if there's anything further just to add just before we conclude today's session. I thank you just for running over slightly, and before we redirect...
No, I'm good. I'm good, Gary? Nope. Thank you, David.
Well, look, David, Gary, thanks indeed for updating investors today. Can I please ask investors not to close the session? It should be automatically redirected in order that you can provide your feedback for the team to understand your views and expectations. This will only take a few moments to complete, it's greatly valued by the company. On behalf of the management team of Zotefoams plc, we'd like to thank you for attending today's presentation, and good afternoon to you all.