Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to 360 ONE WAM Q2 FY 2025 Earnings Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in listen-only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the management shares their thoughts. Should you require assistance during the conference, kindly signal the host by tapping on the Raise Hand icon. Please note that this conference is being recorded. On the call today, we have with us Mr. Karan Bhagat, Managing Director and CEO, Mr. Anshuman Maheshwari, Chief Operating Officer, and Mr. Sanjay Wadhwa, Chief Financial Officer. I now hand it over to Mr. Sanjay Wadhwa to take this conference ahead. Thank you.
Thank you, Anil, and a very good afternoon to everyone on the call today. Indian equities continue to remain buoyant in Q2, with benchmark indices hovering around all-time highs, supported by robust economic momentum, encouraging macro indicators, and sustained domestic flows. Although geopolitical development induced some tensions and volatility, the broad outlook remains stable. We continue to believe in India's long-term growth story, which will act as a tailwind for India's wealth and asset management sector, supported by faster wealth creation outside traditional pockets and overall low penetration. Coming to business and financial numbers, in Q2, our total ARR AUM increased to INR 242,619 crores, up 41% year on year. This growth was supported by strong net flows at INR 9,786 crores.
With this, our overall H1 FY 2025 flows stood at INR 15,335 crores, as against INR 4,323 crores in H1 FY 2024. We saw very healthy gross flows in the asset management business, both on the institutional side and on new fund launches in private equity AIFs, which helped us counter the overall outflows of INR 3,600 crores in AIFs during the quarter. Our wealth ARR AUM stood at INR 1,56,849 crores, up 45% year on year, while AMC ARR AUM stood at INR 85,770 crores, up 33% year on year. Our ARR revenues for the quarter grew by 27.8% year on year, at INR 397 crores, led by growth in assets across business segments and healthy retentions.
Our ARR revenues as a percentage of total revenues from operations stood at 67%. Total revenue from operation was up at 38% year on year at INR 589 crores for Q2 FY 2025. While ARR revenues stood strong, the quarter also witnessed higher transactional and brokerage income, mainly driven by opportunities in the private markets. Total revenues are up 40% year on year at INR 618 crores for Q2 FY 2025. Total costs stood at INR 299 crores in Q2 FY 2025. The employee costs were INR 224 crores, while other costs were INR 75 crores. The variable employment costs were high during the quarter as compared to the previous quarter on account of sales incentivization arising out of certain specific product offerings. The costs also included, provisioning towards bonus, bonuses related to significant senior hires done recently.
Directionally, we continue to move towards long-term in-incentivization in the form of ESOPs, which allows for wealth creation for the employees. Our overall cost-to-income ratio stood at 48.4% for Q2, and for the first half, it stood at 42.9%. Our operating profit grew by 36% year on year at INR 289 crores. Once again, we are happy to report our highest ever quarterly PAT in Q2. PAT rose by 33.4% to INR 247 crores, with tangible ROE at 31.2%. With that, I would like to hand it over to Anshuman to cover the key business and strategic highlights.
Thanks, Sanjay, and good afternoon, everyone. Taking the cue from Sanjay's opening commentary on wealth and asset management industry's structural growth story, I just wanna highlight a few data points that helps hold our premise strong. As a country, India is still in its early stages with regard to financial investments as compared to developed countries. Only about 6% of our population can be categorized as unique investors investing in stocks, versus 60%+ penetration in the U.S. Our MF AUM as a percentage of GDP is still as low as 15 % odd , versus global average of, again, 60%+ , percent. Many data points that highlight the opportunity and journey ahead for us on the overall investment landscape, despite the recent growth in asset classes and valuation concerns that may be there in the near term.
Tying this up with our business, we strongly believe that our continued focus on our platform, product innovation, execution, and most importantly, client interests, positions both our wealth and asset management business uniquely for these opportunities. Coming to quarter two, Sanjay has covered the financial outcomes. Let me share some of the highlights on our key input variables. The quarter saw very strong net flows at about close to INR 10,000-odd crores with flows coming in both in wealth management at about INR 8,400 crores and asset management at about INR 1,400 crores. Our wealth management. On wealth management, while our total client base has risen to more than 7.5 thousand clients, importantly, we've successfully onboarded over 160 families with over INR 10 crores AUM... and over 70 families with INR 50-plus crores AUM in the last quarter itself.
The total number of families with more than INR 10 crores AUM now stands at about 3,160, and accounts for 94% of our wealth AUM. With over INR 13,000 crores of net flows in wealth for the first half of this year, we are already at about 80% of the FY 2024 flows, and most importantly, at over 10% of our opening ARR AUM. These flows reflect our investments made over the recent past on expansion in our senior teams as well as in geographies. On the asset management side, our flows remain strong both on listed equity and alternates. Our overall gross flows were over INR 7,000 crores, paid down for the planned distributions made primarily in private equity.
We are now in the last stage of completing the planned distributions from our first set of alternates, alternate funds raised, as far back as 2016 , 2017. Specifically, we have raised about INR 5,000 crores in commitments through our private equity and private credit funds this quarter. Also, in listed equities, very happy to share that we've been awarded our sixth institutional mandate, $350 million mandate from a marquee global investor. We are also witnessing rising levels of interest and engagement with global institutions for private market ideas in India. And again, with strong alternative investment capabilities in this sphere, we are well placed to benefit from such opportunities. Additionally, in our mutual fund offerings, we've seen ourselves grow on the back of strong fund performance as well as strengthen sales and distribution infrastructure.
Our Focused Equity Fund, which is the flagship MF, has crossed INR 8,500 crores in AUM, and our Flexi Cap has crossed INR 1,000 crores, while our Quant Fund has crossed INR 500 crores. We continue to focus on deepening our channel presence on the domestic market, specifically through MFDs. Our new product pipeline remains strong in the upcoming quarters. We understand that the present market cycles can be quite volatile, but our diversified asset classes across listed, unlisted, credit, RE, and infra allow us to go through these cycles with a much higher resilience. On the new growth initiatives, the HNI segment is live, with our initial set of bankers getting onboarded and select new-to-firm clients getting onboarded as well.
The initial response to the platform and proposition has been positive, with high appreciation for the tech build that has been done. We believe we are still in early stages, and we'll look for learnings and refinements of our offerings as we widen the client reach out over the next few months. The first phase of the global business build has also been completed, with the required platform and EAM agreements for our initial proposition in place. We already have new flows of about $160 million in this segment, and remain confident of the planned ramp-up over the next few quarters. Additionally, our investments in technology and digital continues, with a sharp focus on both internal efficiency-related deployments as well as client-facing developments. Specifically, we are excited by the initial outputs from our work on data and analytics.
We believe this could be a key differentiator for us in the coming future. With that, I would like to hand over to Karan for his opening remarks and then follow it up with Q&A.
Thank you. Thanks, Anshuman. Thanks, Anshuman. Thanks to everyone for joining in, so I just want to start off by making two, three observations on the quarter very quickly, and then I'll quickly kind of hold for questions. Very, very quickly, I think from a business perspective, fairly exciting quarter from a flows perspective. I think the wealth management flows is reflecting a large part of the contribution from the teams which have joined in over the last 12-18 months, especially the three teams who joined us over the last 12-18 months are coming up on their own.
A large part of some part of the contribution which they've made over the last 12-15 months is reflected in the growth of the AUM. But especially on the mutual fund side, most of them have come through broker code changes, so the revenue reflection would start six months post the change. But overall, they're quite excited about the ability to attract their set of older clients onto the platform. On the asset management side, again, we've had a good last four to five months. We've been able to close two large funds, one small one on the credit side, but a much larger one on the private equity side, with a commitment of nearly INR 4,500 crores - INR 5,000 crores.
Obviously, the gross sales on the asset management side is a much more encouraging number. The net sales is kind of a little tepid, largely on account of the SOF series one to seven reaching its maturity stage. We had raised around INR 6.5 thousand crores - INR 7 thousand crores in the fund and returning around INR 14 thousand crores - INR 15 thousand crores. Of that, nearly 90% is returned. The remaining 10% would get distributed over the next six to 12 months. On the listed equity side, again, been a fairly encouraging quarter for us, where we were able to not only maintain our net flows, but also be able to win a couple of more mandates. So overall, from a flows and a client's perspective, fairly exciting quarter.
From a retentions perspective, I think one odd basis points reduction largely on account of a couple of advisory accounts which have come in with a slightly larger weightage towards slightly lower retentions. I have also a basis point reduction on largely the mutual fund assets coming through broker code change, which still doesn't give us income because it needs a six-month cooling-off period before we start getting brokerages, and another one and a half basis points reduction on account of lower carry income, and round about a one basis points reduction on account of net interest margin, so slightly muted in terms of retentions. I think combination of these three or four factors.
Of the four factors, you know, most of them are kind of quarter specific rather than being long-term trends. So expect the retention to kind of come back up by two to three basis points. But systematically, I think from input variables, both on the net retention, both on net flow side, as well as number of families, both are encouraging for us from a last quarter perspective. From a new build business perspective, as Anshuman pointed out, I think early shoots, both on the high net worth side and the global side are encouraging. I think it's been slightly slower from a launch perspective.
Maybe we are quarter delayed, but I think we've got the operating principles right, and over the next six odd months, I think we should be able to catch up on most of the numbers we had kind of thought through to achieve for the current financial year. On the cost side, I think we've added obviously a lot of resources, both on the ultra high net worth side as well as on the investment team. Little bit of optimization needed on the existing task force. I think we are going through a phase over the last year and in this current year, where we'll continue to work to be towards the late 40% in terms of cost to income.
But as we optimize the existing task force as well as add new, together with the increase in revenues, we will end up seeing a cost to income at the 46%-47%. So that is very much on track, and I think, towards the last quarter of the current year, as well as the next whole financial year, we should be definitely closer to our cost to income ratios of 46%-47%. So I think those are the broad headlines from a business perspective. So overall continue to be fairly buoyant on the broader trends in the market.
Thank you, Karan. We'll now open the floor for questions. To ask your question, please tap on the Raise Hand icon. First on line, we have Mohit Mangal. Mohit, kindly unmute yourself and ask your question.
Yeah. Hi, am I audible?
Yeah, Mohit. Thank you.
Congratulations on a good set of numbers. So I've got four questions. So first is that, you know, I mean, considering that the strong flows we had this quarter, so your full year guidance of 250-300 billion, do you think that will be revised upwards? The second question is that, you know, now that we have added more clients, specifically in the category, would be a little curious to know how is the net flows from the existing versus the newer clients? So if you can give some color on that.
Sure.
Third is in terms of other income. So other income, if I look, you know, fell sequentially in Q2. So just wanted to know if it is purely M&A movements or there's something else to it. And lastly, in respect of the QIP, just wanted to know, so two sub-questions on that. Basically, any timeline when it is expected to complete, and would you be tinkering with the dividend policy, in that space?
Thanks, Mohit. I think we've covered a lot of questions. Sorry, your second question, I didn't get.
Yeah. So net flows from the existing versus newer clients.
Got it. Okay. No, so I think, from a flows perspective, obviously, I think, the 25-30 thousand flow number for the year is a fairly reasonable number. I think just given the flows in the second quarter, I think all things being equal, obviously, it can lead to potentially INR 5,000 crores more for the entire year. But, you know, we'll, we should wait and see how the markets also kind of hold up for the next six months before I quickly increase the guidance. But I think, all things being equal, you know, from a flow perspective and our attractiveness as a platform, for clients continues to be very high.
Therefore, you know, all things being equal, I don't see any reason why our net flows won't continue fairly strong. I wouldn't want to kind of just increase the guidance very quickly. I think there are a lot of parameters which influence it. I think, again, most importantly, relationship managers, attractiveness of relationship managers to our platform and attractiveness of our platform to our clients continues to be super high. On the existing versus the net flows, I think the numbers remain similar. I think broadly, our existing clients are contributing to around about 25%-40% of the net flows, and the new clients are contributing around about 55%-65% of the net flows. I think that number broadly remains similar.
Obviously, having said that, the new clients of 55-65% also have a couple of kind of mixes in the blend. One is a type of a client, obviously, who's got a new liquidity event, and the other type of a client is a client who's kind of transferring some part of his AUM from another institution to us. So I think the further break of that would be around about 60% would be new liquidity and 40% would be a transfer of broker code changes and so on and so forth.
So overall, I would say 35%-40% is new liquidity events, 30-odd% would be existing clients of the firm, and the remaining 30% would be largely on account of relationship managers who kind of joined the firm from other organizations. The other income is just a translation of mark-to-market. There's really no other component to it as such. Obviously, I think we have around about INR 1,800 crores-odd exposure as a sponsor, non-sponsor capital to our alternate funds. I think broadly speaking, around about approximately, don't hold me to that number, but approximately 10%-12% of that INR 1,800 crores is effectively, or maybe 9% of that is in NSE.
And last quarter, that obviously saw a fairly large revision in price going up from, I think, INR 4,200 crores- INR 5,500 crores. So that's kind of led to, last quarter, a bit of a jump in the mark to market. But on the other income side, that's largely the only component. There's really no other component to it. So largely reflects the mark to market on our sponsor investments on the alternative side.
Fourth, obviously, and from a dividend policy perspective, I think, you know, in retrospect, I think just the dividends on coming out of the alternatives business, the profits coming out of the alternatives business, as well as part of the profits coming out of the lending business of the wealth management piece, I think we want to be slightly more conservative in declaring dividends from those two components. The two components where we would want to kind of continue with a relatively more liberal dividend policy would be on the listed part of the asset management business as well as the wealth management business.
The wealth management business and the listed part of the asset management businesses, obviously, are two businesses which don't need too much of capital. The alternates business as well as the NBSC would continue to have some redeployment. So I think, if you just kind of combine the mix of these four, that's really what is going to dictate our dividend policy. So I think, you know, just broad ballpark, if you give 70%-85% of our profits of the wealth management as well as the listed asset management business, and twenty to thirty percent of the profits out of the alternates in the lending business, that's really going to be broadly the basic maths to decide our dividend policy going forward.
I think from a number perspective, it's broadly going to come to around 30%-40% of the or 30%-50% of the overall profits of the firm. And obviously, you know, a little bit of balancing to that number basis other opportunities available is what we are really going to look at. I think to summarize, I think as opposed to a 65%-80% dividend policy, we are going to be substantially, relatively more conservative and kind of get it down closer to the 25%-40% number for the year.
Lastly, for the QIP, obviously, you know, really can't indicate too much on the timelines. Apart from the fact that the shareholder approval from a shareholder perspective has been approved. So effectively, we can do a QIP anytime through the next year.
Understood. So just one follow-up. So you said that dividend policy would be, I mean, the change in the dividend policy would only be for this year. So next year, we'll be again back to the 70%-80%?
No, no, no, no, no, no. So our dividend policy is not only for this year, it's for... I'm saying as a method of computation, the lending portion of profits attributable to the lending part of the wealth management business, as well as the alternatives business, both of these require some degree of reinvestment back into the business. So those would be a substantially more conservative number of profits as dividend.
Yeah.
The listed part of the asset management business, as well as the wealth management business, don't require too much of... or require very little capital to be reinvested, apart from strategic reasons. So the profits accruing out of those two businesses will be largely paid out as dividend.
Yes.
The profits accruing out of the lending as well as the alternates business, very conservative amount of that profits will be paid out as dividend. On a weighted average basis, today, if I was to calculate it, we would end up doing 25%-40% of profits as dividends on a constant currency basis.
Understood. No, that's it from my side. Thanks, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next in line, we have Sanket. Kindly unmute yourself and ask your question.
Thank you for the opportunity. So Karan, I have one simple question. Given yesterday, you have highlighted in the exchange that Anirudh Taparia, who is the Co-CEO and Co-Founder, has chosen to move out. So just wanted to understand some numbers around him. How much AUM was under his management? Whether it is the only person who has quit or some people around his team have also moved out? And just if you can tell me as a total percentage of the total wealth revenue, or maybe his team contributed how much to our numbers. So just to understand, and what is the succession planning for the region what he was heading?
How you are planning to fill those big shoes in that sense? That's my first question. And the second question is, with respect to your- You said that there was a bit of broker change MF flows. So, this which I wanted to understand, out of that entire flows, what we had in managed slash MF folios, how much came because of the broker change code?
Got it. So I think on the first one, you know, Sanket, very, very quickly, I think as an organization, we follow a policy where really, I think every client has at least four points of contact. One's the relationship manager, the second is the managing partner or the managing director in this case. Third is obviously the entire advisory team, and fourth is, you know, out of the three, four of us, we are attached to every client. So I think from a continuation and a succession perspective, typically speaking, historically, impact of a relationship manager change over a period of three to five years is typically impacted the book anywhere between 1%- 4% over a period of time.
I think, typically in the first couple of years, it's relatively much lower. It's closer to 1%-2%. And depending on the succession plan we put in place, you know, the number can increase to 3%-5% of the overall business. Having said that, obviously, we don't like change. We would love to have everybody at all points in time. But this specific change was largely you know, culmination of a couple of things, including you know, us more or less kind of appointing a single head for wealth management. So that's going to be announced in due course or the structural change, which was kind of necessitated also.
In terms of the roles and responsibilities, I think it's fairly well covered by the team. We have a fairly large team on the Wealth Management side, nearly 140-150 senior bankers, so in that sense, succession is not going to be an issue, so business impact wise, I really wouldn't from a Wealth Management revenues, I think it won't be material enough for me to estimate a percentage impact on the Wealth Management revenues itself, but having said that, you know, I think North and East as regions, and you know, largely it was focused more on North.
North as a region contributes around about of our wealth management revenue, around about close to 12-13% odd of our or 14% of our revenues. So I think relatively, even if I was to look at a short-term impact, assuming you know there is a consequential impact, it would not be more than 2-3% of our of our wealth management revenues. As we speak now I think while we still don't have a large we don't have exactly I don't have a number to give you in terms of people who are looking to leave.
But, it's fair to say that, you know, it's a team which has been working together for the last fifteen to twenty years, so two or three people might be par for the course in that sense. But, it's part of natural attrition. I think out of a hundred and thirty, hundred and forty bankers, two to three bankers a year is par for the course. So from a business materiality impact perspective, I don't see it impacting much. Having said that, you know, from a firm perspective, would love to have everybody all the time, assuming things can fit into the structure and align.
At the same point of time, you know, kind of, wishing the best in his future endeavors.
Good. But, but Karan, is it fair to assume that the incremental hiring, which you have done in 12 to 18 months, will be more than sufficient if there is any immediate attrition at the North region in that sense?
No, no, I think we have enough capacity in North itself. We don't need to hire. So I think we have a fairly large, very mature team in North. We have around about all of our 3,200-odd clients above 10 crores. We would have around about. I would not be way off, but we would have around about 12-15% of our clients coming from North. Of the 12-15%, 400-450, we would have more than 30-40 senior bankers in North. So we're very, very well covered. We don't have any capacity issues at all.
Got it. Perfect. And the second question on broker code change, if you can quantify the-
Yeah, sorry. Yeah, on the broker code change, I think I don't have the exact number, but I have a very good approximate. I think it will be in the region of around about 25% of the flows. So around about INR 2,800 odd crores is the entire change. Of the INR 2,800 crores, I think around about INR 1,900 crores- INR 2,000 crores is in mutual funds alone, INR 2,000 crores- INR 2,200 crores.
Mm-hmm.
INR 600 crores-INR 800 crores would be in managed accounts. In managed accounts, obviously, the trail will start faster.
Mm.
On the mutual fund side, the trail will only start six months after the change.
Lastly, on this broker code change, have you seen the maximum to come already in the second quarter? Do you think this flow can further continue going ahead?
No, I think it... Hopefully, it has a long way to go, because-
Got it.
We've got a very, very experienced team of a lot of nearly thirty senior bankers. So I think three thousand crores is a part of the exercise, not the exercise in itself.
Perfect. That's it for me, sir. Thank you. Thank you for the answers.
Thank you. Next in line, we have Abhijit Sakhare . Abhijit, kindly unmute yourself.
Hey, hi, good afternoon.
Hi, Abhijit.
Hey, hi, Karan. Hey, first question was on OpEx. So how do we look at the OpEx growth over the next twelve months or so? Specifically, the challenge is, you know, how much of it is actually linked to TBR, you know, which is where I think there is a little bit of an uncertainty how the next twelve months could look like.
No, so I think OpEx being linked to TBR, there's no direct correlation between TBR and OpEx as such, okay? I think, obviously, our OpEx this quarter was maybe slightly higher for two large reasons. I think we'd done a U.K. case settlement last quarter. By the time we paid it, there was a further Forex currency translation loss of around about $1 million, which kind of got added on to the admin and legal expenses. And we further had INR 4 or 5 crores of kind of legal costs on the same thing, which kind of got cascaded. So around about INR 10 crores of OpEx cost is kind of increased this quarter on account of that, on account of the same thing.
But outside of that, I think, it's fairly standard. I think what used to be broadly a INR 60-65 crore OpEx cost a quarter is now more closer to the range of, INR 68 crores- INR 75 odd crores. So that's, that's really where it is. Don't expect too much of, massive variation in the OpEx cost coming out of any linkage to TBR. Having said that, TBR obviously has a fairly largest kind of impact on the variable cost of the firm. So the variable bonuses of the employees can kind of change quite a bit depending on the quantum of TBR. The AR is obviously very well modeled, both in terms of predictability as well as in terms of variable compensation to the relationship managers.
But the TBR itself, while it doesn't impact the OpEx, it does impact the variable bonus portion, in a fairly straight line pass-through way.
Got that. And second one was on the new commitments that you've raised. Any sense on, you know, how much of this is insourced, and, you know, what's the realization range in these funds?
So in these funds, you know, obviously, it's you know, on our pre-IPO funds and special opportunities funds, we don't charge on the on the commitment, we charge on the drawdown. So while we've got commitments of nearly INR 6,000 crores, I think what shows up in the AUM is only INR 1,500 or INR 2,000 crores, because that's the amount which is drawn down. And we are also charging fees only on the INR 1,500 crores-INR 2,000 crores. So I think the remaining INR 3,000 crores- INR 4,000 crores comes in automatically as net flows over the next you know, potentially 12-18 months. So I think in that sense, only 30-35% of the flows and 30-35% of the fees is really captured potentially over the last two quarters.
I think, in our pre-IPO funds, our realizations are quite decent. I think, just given the track record and the market leadership we have in those funds, we are able to kind of between between our role as a manufacturer as well as a wealth manager and a distributor, we are able to kind of capture around about 130-140 basis points of retention. 80-90 basis points as a manufacturer, potentially 50-60 basis points as a distributor, because we are kind of distributing 60%-70% of the funds in-house.
Got that. And sorry, one last one, you know, what we've seen in the last couple of years is that, you know, the client base seems to be fairly active on the TBR side as well, given how the markets have been. Just to understand your client base better, when we move to markets which are relatively more, sort of sideways moving or downward drifting-
Mm-hmm.
How do you expect the client base to behave? And do you see some of the AUMs shift to, you know, recurring revenues from TBR?
That's a great question. You know, actually, our market share improves dramatically in a flattish market, actually, our market share. So because clients typically, clients, relationship managers, everybody kind of typically comes back to basics. So they want to do the investment policy statement again, they want to do the asset allocation again, they want to follow the discipline again, you know, they want to have the right ratio between single instrument, single stocks, a pool of funds, and so on and so forth. And that's really when, when organized players like us, who are slightly more focused on asset allocation at IPS, typically see our market share go up. I think volume of activity for us also comes down, like it would come down for everybody else.
So I think, the TBR numbers as well as the volume of activity will definitely come down. But overall, I think, you're as you're rightly saying, I think our ability to attract new clients as well as increase our market share on a relative basis will be even better as compared to a very, very active market on the TBR side. So I think, you know, steady state basis, we feel comfortable, we've been comfortable with around about, you know, INR 100crores - INR 125 crores of TBR a quarter, historically. Obviously, the TBR numbers for the last two quarters have been, or last three quarters have been substantially higher.
And that to a certain extent is a reflection of the capital market activity across the country. But I think, you know, if the markets were to stay flat, drift down, and stay slightly drifted down, I think we have a little advantage because we are very active across all asset classes, including fixed income, equities, commodities, and so on and so forth, and all to that. So I think we have a little bit of flex on the TBR side, but at the same point of time, would it remain the same numbers? I don't think so.
I think it would kind of be some number between the 100- 125 range as a steady state basis, which it was a couple of quarters back, and I think in absolute stress scenarios, if you see the markets kind of go down by 15, 20, 25%, I think the TBR numbers come, you know, towards the lower range. Lower end would be absolutely at the INR 75 crore- INR 80 crore range. So if you really stress test the business at 20%-25% lower markets, I think it's fair to say, you know-...
With a combination of mark-to-market AUM, as well as a little bit of TBR reduction, you potentially see a 10%-15%, round about a 50% of the fall on the markets is reduction in profits. Obviously, which can be offset with growth in MTM on the fixed income side, as well as net new flows and net new clients at that point in time. So that's really the way I would look at it.
Thank you so much.
Thank you. Next in line, we have Nidesh Jain. Nidesh, kindly unmute yourself.
So first question is on retention. How should we think about the ARR retention from a medium to long-term perspective? If you look at last, I think two, three years, there has been slight, gradual downward pressure on the retention on the ARR side. So from a three- to four-year perspective, how should we think about that?
I think, one to two-year perspective, Nidesh, back to the 70-72-ish kind of number, which we were at. I think from a four to five-year perspective, I would say closer to the 67, 68 basis points. Largely not because the headline retention is gonna change. I think the headline retention is gonna, be more or less, remain the same. So on the, pure RIA advisory side, I would expect incremental business on an average of thirty, thirty-four, thirty-five basis points. And, you know, as, as time was to go by, I would expect our retention on the advisory assets to be between 30%-35% . I would expect the pure discretionary piece to be between 45 and 50 basis points. The listed piece, I think, is where the retention would come down a bit.
I think we are currently closer to the 64, 65, that I expect it to be between 56%-60%. Net interest margin would remain around the same. Alternatives remains broadly around the same, including carry in the region of 85-90 basis points. So if you see the headline retention of each of the components, you don't really see too much of a reduction apart from listed equity. I think the change happens because of a little bit of... Sorry, managed accounts distribution, now, which is broken down both on mutual funds and managed accounts. So there also I see a similar trend. I think mutual funds, we are today at 45-50 basis points, and managed accounts, we are in the region of 75-80 basis points. So I think all of these retentions remain fairly similar, apart from listed equity.
Even then, I think the headline weighted as the retention drops a bit from 72-ish, 71, 72 to around about 68 because of the change in the mix of the business. So three things will change from the change in the mix of the business. I think the first thing is the loan book obviously won't grow in same proportion of the AUM. Secondly, I think the second change will be the broad mix of distribution and advice will be slightly more in favor of advice as compared to distribution today. And these two things largely will result, and obviously, listed equity, there will be a little bit of reduction. So these three things result in a little bit of reduction on a weighted average basis.
On a headline basis, in each of the segments, I don't expect too much of median retention.
Sure. Secondly, on the transactional-based income, historically, we have been guiding at around INR 100 crore of steady-state quarterly run rate on transactional income, but last three quarters, we are running at around INR 200 crore.
Yeah.
So still on a steady-state basis, do you believe that the INR 100 crores is the right number or we should take that number up?
No, I would still say around about INR 100 crores- INR 125 crores, INR 125 crores is the right number to look at, yeah.
Okay. This quarter, how much of the transition income is coming from the NSE block?
NSE block of this quarter would not be much. INR 25 crores-INR 30 crores, yeah.
Okay, okay.
Approximately might be INR 2 crore- INR 3 crore off. Yeah.
Okay, sure.
Yeah.
Around INR 30 crores?
INR 30 crores, yeah.
Okay. Okay, thank you. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you. Next in line, we have Himanshu Taluja. Himanshu, kindly unmute yourself.
Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Just few questions, especially in terms of your transaction-based revenues, which is very difficult to project, because if you look at the last three to four years journey, broadly, we remain around INR 300 crore- INR 400 crore, and last few quarters, we have seen a very sharp. So can we really say probably 20%-25% of your transaction-based AUM in a good environment get churned every year, which gives you practically 80-100 basis points of the yield? And what are the other components in the transaction-based revenues? Lastly, thirdly, in this transaction, how much is last, in last three to four years, how much is the NSE shares contributing? So if you can help me understand how one should have a realistic projection around the transaction-based.
No, so I think, to be honest, your first way of calculating is approximately the best way to calculate. It's not necessarily the absolute scientific way, but I think, from a TBR perspective, it's fair to say around about the transaction AUM kind of churns once in five or six years, and broadly gives a retention of 80-100 basis points, which effectively results in that, blended retention of 30 basis points on the entire transaction AUM. But is that a scientific way to look at it? You know, I think from a reverse calculation perspective, that's the way it works out. But broadly, I think, those two assumptions are right.
15%-25% of the AUM churns once in four or five years and broadly gives you 80-100 basis points of retention leading to round about a 30-35 basis points retention on the TBR AUM. On the second portion on NSE, I think, you know, broadly speaking, last three, four years, it would be in the broad component, around about INR 60 crores- INR 70 crores a year, INR 60, 70, 80 crores a year, approximately a year.
Okay. And what are the other components in your transaction-based revenues, apart from these two?
So around about INR 100 crores comes from listed equity, INR 80 crores- INR 100 crores. Around about INR 50 crores - INR 60 crores from fixed income brokerage. Another around about INR 80crores - INR 90 crores from NSE, which is around about INR 250-odd crores. Then you have another INR 50 crores - INR 100 crores in fixed income brokerage like NSC. So we've done a lot of fixed income transactions over the last year and a half, maybe last three odd years. So it's a combination of these three or four things. And a little bit of INR 50 crores- INR 75 crores of upfront income on products distributed in the form of managed accounts and so on and so forth. And forty-two-
Yeah.
referrals from investment banking, M&A activities, and so on and so forth.
Yeah. So second part of the question is around your basically lending book. You currently have a lending book of 6,800. What's the, you are also looking in a, in terms of the capital raise, one of the primary reason you want to scale this lending book as well. How do you, how one should—if you have to think from a two to three years viewpoint, how do you expect this lending book to grow?
So I think from a lending book perspective, I think broadly we see it around 2%-2.5% AUM on the wealth management side. So today, if you were to just look at our AUM on the wealth management side, at around about give or take INR 4 lakh-odd crores, a loan book of around about INR 8,000 crores- INR 10,000 crores is a sustainable number. So I think purely from a loan book growth perspective, assuming the wealth management AUM can grow at around about 20%-25% a year, I think broadly speaking you know the loan book will kind of grow at a number of around about 2.5%-3% of that number. Today, obviously, we are slightly maybe INR 1,000 crores short.
So effectively, at a full matured basis, INR 1,000 crores plus around about 2%-2.5% of the Wealth Management AUM growth is really the metric to grow the loan book.
Yes. Fair, fair. So just last one question is in terms of your active AUM, ARR, advisory is one of the key in a way to go forward in terms of the growth. But when we look in terms of your retention yields over the last eight, ten quarters, probably it has come down from 37 basis points to 30 basis points. What is an ideal sustainable range in this, basically retention yields? Because I believe the share of this 360 ONE assets in the overall active AUM will keep increasing.
It'll be around about 35 basis points, like I pointed out slightly earlier. So I think the RIA fees will be in the region of 35. It can be towards 30, provided if we end up getting only large clients. But, I think in the mix of large, small clients, I think it'll be trending towards 35. Right now, it's got a lot of, a little bit of maybe approximately out of the INR 40 thousand crores- INR 45 thousand crores, nearly a third are accounts which we've onboarded, prior to 18 months from today. And those accounts are onboarded at, at substantially lower fees, and that's kind of having a, kind of a drawdown impact on the, on the retentions. But with every new incremental AUM, that impact kind of, is coming down.
So I would expect the RIA to kind of move towards the 30-35 basis points range, hopefully closer to the 35 basis points range, depending on the weighted average AUM of the clients or the number of clients, and discretionary in the region of 45-50 basis points. And assuming we can have a similar proportion or a two-thirds, one-third proportion in favor of advisory versus discretionary, I think the mix of both will give us around about a forty basis points retention.
Yeah. So just last question. Since you have just recently set up the team to cater to the mid-market HNI segment as well, how do you plan to ramp up in the next, like, in next twelve months now from here? You've already set up the team and everything. How one should see it in terms of the flows and all?
I think the big ramp up and recruitment starts from April next year. I think from our perspective right now, we're doing the following three things. I think we've set up the entire platform, the tech is set up. The operating market leaders for the four regions, the key team members, 15-20 members are in place. We're going to use what we call as the network effect for the top 3,500 families who we are already servicing on the ultra-high net worth side. I think each of those families has at least three or four people around the ecosystem who are clients who fit into the INR 10 crore- INR 50 crore range.
Our first port of call really is going to be those 10,000 families around our existing 3,500 families, and that's the benefit we have of going a little bit from the top to the next level, and for the next six months, it's really about 25-30 relationship managers whom we've recruited, 20-25 relationship managers from our existing team, which we are transferring into the high net worth business, so first six months is really going to be about these 50-60 people and these 8,000-10,000 families and figuring out our success parameters.
Only in April is when we kind of go out and hire 150 to 200 people and expand to 25, 30, 35 cities, based on our own assessment of our own strengths and weaknesses. So I think over the next six months, you'll see us ramp up that business, but in a fairly measured manner, without disproportionately increasing the cost. And from April of 2025, you'll really see us kind of give a much, much larger impetus in terms of growth and recruitment to the business.
Sure. Thanks a lot.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next in line, we have Dipanjan Ghosh. Dipanjan, kindly unmute yourself and ask your question.
Hey, hi. Hi, am I audible?
Yeah, Dipanjan, hi.
Yeah. Hi. So just a few questions, Karan. First, you know, on the AMC side of the business, obviously, you've, you know, kind of concluded one of the institutional mandates, and just wanted to get some sense of, are there more in the pipeline or, you know, how the team is shaping up on that front?
... Second, now that most, you know, quite a lot of your planned redemptions are done, as you said, 90% is almost complete. Over the next year to 18 months, how is the pipeline in terms of new product offerings, stacking up on that side of the business? And what sort of gross sales do you really expect? My third question is more from a RM-based perspective. I mean, in this first half, and specifically in the second quarter, have you kind of onboarded new teams on the ultra-high net worth side? And you also mentioned that three of the teams that you onboarded last year are kind of operating in steady state.
So just want to get some color on the flows or revenue contribution that some of these teams probably have given in the last, let's say, six to twelve months. And finally, on the new clients that have been acquiring over the last two to three quarters, which have been quite strong, if you could give some color on are these like new to money customers or these are customers of existing who had existing relationships with other wealth managers and swapping to 360 or kind of testing new waters?
Just want to get some sense of the clientele quality and what if there is a market drawdown, you mentioned that there can be market share accretion, but in terms of new money generation, how historically things shape up on that front?
Thank you. Thank you, Dipanjan. I hope I remember all the orders in the question in that order. I've tried to write it down, but otherwise, if I forget one, I'll come back to you. On the asset management side, I think, on the gross sales, I think, you're absolutely right. I think, we had a large episodic contribution in two thousand and eighteen on the pre-IPO front. Outside of that, I think all our funds are fairly well, distributed on an even basis, so it's unlikely that any one redemption will have, such a large impact. So I think, as I said earlier, I think we're in the last 10%, which would may potentially get paid out over the next six to eight months.
I think our overall strategy on the gross sales side continues to be fairly exciting. I think we've got a lot of new products in the pipeline, so I think while our redemptions kind of ease off a bit, I think the gross sales will continue to continue to kind of happen. And as I explained earlier, the gross sales will also be having a component of the drawdowns, which still not kind of called for, because that really doesn't show up in our AUM as of now, because we don't charge on a commitment basis, but we charge on a drawn down basis.
So overall, I think, you know, on the alternate side, without ascribing a specific number, we definitely believe we'll be in a good position to be able to kind of grow our overall alternates AUM on a net basis by at least 10%-12% a year, as we've kind of indicated earlier. Obviously, that would mean a slightly larger number on the gross side, but effectively, we feel fairly confident of being able to add those numbers over the next 18-20 months.
On the wealth management side, in terms of the new team members, I would not jump to say that they are in a steady state. I think they are settled in well. I think it's still fairly early days. It's less than twelve months since they've joined. So I think a large part of their clients have started kind of getting onboarded with us, but they will take full time for them to kind of fully scale up and for us to get a large wallet share from those clients. So I think early offshoots are very positive, very encouraging.
I think a large portion of the onboardings started. Having said that, I think for the teams to fully settle in is any time period between 30 to 42 months. So we still have some time to go. And as I indicated earlier, I think purely from a numbers perspective, I think they have the potential to grow substantially larger than where they are today. From a new client perspective, I think again, it's broadly a third, a third, a third. I think a third is old relationship of ours, which we've been prospecting for many years, scaling up over the period of last year.
A third is absolutely out of new liquidity events, and a third is market share gain from other competitors. So I think, to your question, you know, if the capital markets were to slow down and liquidity has really come off, I think it has a little bit of impact on that last 35%. But the first 35%, we should be able to do equally well.
So I think, you know, hopefully, even if the markets stay flat or slightly more towards the downside, our input variables, especially in terms of number of new clients, we keep kind of chugging along, and that doesn't really kind of fall that much in proportion with the market share, because, that's something which, you know, a firm like ours should be able to do. I did forget, I think, the question in the middle. I'm not quite sure, but...
No. So just one follow-up, Karan, on one of the questions asked earlier, participant, which was on the exit of one of your senior members. You, if I, if I heard correctly, you mentioned that historically, over a three-to-five year period, because of any RM attrition, the book attrition is around 3%-5%. If that's the correct understanding?
That's right.
Your North segment is currently 12%- 14% of your revenues. So if you were to kind of do a triangulation math, it basically means that the overall impact should be capped at-
Fifteen percent.
Yeah, 15% of your revenue. So according to...
Wealth Management revenues. Overall revenue is less than 7%-8%.
In that sense, the triangulation would suggest that any significant exit should not materially alter the PNL. Is that a fair understanding?
Honestly, Dipanjan, we have, I think, RM exits at that level, unless it's something which is systemic and, you know, kind of impacts the capacity of the firm, or in some ways, you know, it's led by an event which is kind of rather brand diluting in some ways. I think, from a platform perspective today, both in terms of multiple engagements with clients, as well as the power of the platform to kind of attract new people, as well as offer the right set of products, I think, it's not really purely based on RM exits, yeah. So the ability to do revenues, the ability to charge fees, it's a very, very, it's a very, very. I won't call it a complex formula, but it's a very complete formula.
Everything needs to be there. It's not really. I think the RM is a very, very important component of that formula, but it's not the only component in the formula. I think that's something which we have to be kind of cognizant of.
But then, sir, the question in the middle was on the institutional mandates, any more lumpy mandates that you foresee?
Yeah. No, no, so we continue to work on a lot of mandates, but these cycles are fairly long. I think you know, whatever we started work on last year kind of converts after nine to 15 months. So obviously, at all points of time, we have a good number of mandates. Any point of time, we would have any number between 2 to 6 mandates, which are in different stages of hopefully fructifying.
So I've got it. Thank you, Anandresh.
Thank you.
Thank you. I think we'll take one last question from Neeraj Toshniwal. Neeraj, kindly unmute yourself and ask your question.
Yeah, hi. So congrats on great set. So just wanted to understand on the discretionary, non-discretionary part of the flows, we have been seeing the non-discretionary has been, you know, growing quite steadily, while discretionary flows have been actually quite muted. So is the trend going to continue? Because discretionary retentions are a little better in history. And, does these non-discretionary clients move to discretionary at some point, or it actually remains there?
No, I think you're absolutely right. I think left to you know we from a behavior change perspective also, there is a little bit of transition from non-discretionary to discretionary. I think the behavior change happens over a period of time, not only from a client's perspective, but even from a relationship manager perspective. I think, and also, you need a little bit of a track record in terms of performance, which we luckily have now. So I think overall, you know, we would like the proportion to be closer to around about two-thirds to one-third, with two-thirds coming in advisory and one-third coming to discretionary. Aspirationally, obviously, fifty-fifty, but I think we are not. We, we, from a market perspective, I don't think so we are that mature yet.
But I think, we're trying to move towards the two-third and one-third in terms of, in terms of flows, between discretionary and advisory, which is something which is gonna be a good benchmark for us to follow. Having said that, I think, you know, as a wealth management firm, obviously, you need a good investment in terms of building out your investment teams, asset allocation specialists, as well as a team which can kind of boast of a fairly good track record across diversified allocations, both as multi, you know, both as fund, practically as fund of fund managers, as well as allocation to ETFs, and so on and so forth. So I think we are early in the game.
We've done well for the last two and a half, three years. The track record is really good. We are getting decent flows. We are not getting phenomenally high flows. But I think, having said that, directionally, I think we should be in a position over the next twelve or months, where 25%-35% of our incremental flows start coming on the discretionary side.
Okay, that is helpful. Thank you.
Thank you. I think that's all we have time for this afternoon. Thank you all for joining us, and on behalf of 360 ONE WAM, wish all of you a very happy festive season. Thank you once again.
Thank you.