Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Ajanta Pharma Q3 FY 2024 Earnings C onference Call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during this conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone telephone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Yogesh Agrawal, Managing Director of Ajanta Pharma Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and welcome to this Earnings Call. With me, I have Mr. Rajesh Agrawal, our Joint Managing Director, Mr. Arvind Agrawal, our CFO, and Mr. Rajeev Agrawal, our AVP, Finance and Investor Relations. I hope that the results are already there with you. We will take you through the business-wide performance for the Q3 and nine months of the current year, along with the comparison of previous year same period. I am pleased to inform you that the Board of Directors have approved the second interim dividend for the current year. Each share of INR 2 face value will receive a dividend of INR 26, amounting to the dividend amount of INR 327 crore.
In Q1 of this year, Board of Directors had already approved the dividend of INR 25 per share, having a face value of INR 2, amounting to the dividend of INR 315 crores. Hence, for the nine months of the current year, the company has given the dividend of INR 51 per share, having a face value of INR 2, and the total dividend payout for the nine months stands at INR 642 crores, which is 96% of the cash flow from the operations for the period. The dividend yield works out to 2.42% based on the closing price of 30th January 2024.
Moving on to the business, our 3 verticals of the business, Branded Generic, U.S. Generic, and Institution Business in Africa, generated total revenue of INR 1,105 crores against INR 972 crore, posting a growth of 14% in the Q3. Rupees 3,155 crores against INR 2,861 crore, posting a growth of 10% in the first nine months. During nine months, 71%, 71% of the total revenue came from Branded Generic business, which is spread across India, Asia, and Africa. The sales stood at INR 755 crore against INR 666 crore, posting 13% growth in Q3, and INR 2,230 crore against INR 2,065 crore, removed 8% growth in nine months.
Let me now take up international business, and I will first start with the Branded Generic business in Asia and Africa, which contributed 40% in the total revenue. Let's begin with Asia. In Asia, our presence spans across the Middle East, Southeast Asia, and Central Asia, encompassing around 10 countries. During Q3, sales was INR 292 crore against INR 227 crore, posting a healthy growth of 28%. In nine months, sales was INR 776 crore against INR 719 crore, growth of 8%. We launched 15 new products during nine months of the current year in the region. Growth during Q3 was higher due to some of the supplies which got spilled over from Q2 to the Q3. However, on a full year basis, we estimate the growth to be low double-digit figures. Let's move to Africa.
Africa. Branded business is spread across 20 countries. During Q3, sales were INR 155 crore against INR 145 crore, posting 7% growth. In nine months, sales were INR 472 crore against INR 458 crore, growth of 3%. We launched five new products during first nine months of the current year in the region. Our performance in the secondary sales continues to exceed industry growth and remains into the teens. However, due to rationalization of the inventory by our distributor, our primary sales growth for the first nine months has been lower. As the rationalization is completed now, we are confident of posting mid-teen growth in the coming years in Africa. Let us now talk about other two verticals of international business. US Generics.
US Generics contributed 23% to the total revenue in Q3, with sales of INR 252 crore against INR 266 crore, posting a degrowth of 5%. In nine months, sales was INR 703 crore against INR 631 crore, with a growth of 11%. Q3 degrowth is attributed to last year's higher flu season, as mentioned in our earlier earnings call. In nine months, we filed 6 ANDAs and expect to file about 2 ANDAs in the rest of the year. We received 6 final approvals and launched 4 ANDAs during nine months of the year, and expect to launch one more product in Q4 of the current year. We have 44 products on shelf, and 22 ANDAs are awaiting approval with USFDA.
Moving to Africa institutional, this business contributed 6% in the total revenue, which comprises of anti-malarial products. In Q3, sale was INR 86 crore against INR 31 crore, posting a healthy growth of 179%. In nine months, sale was INR 188 crore against INR 141 crore, posting 33% growth. High growth seen in Q3 was a result of postponement of few supplies of Q4. This business remains unpredictable due to the reliance on procurement of the agency's funds and schedule. I now invite Mr. Rajesh Agrawal, our Joint Managing Director, to take you through the India business now.
Thank you. Good evening to all of you. I'm delighted to share key highlights of India business with you. Our performance has been excellent on the back of increased volumes, price increase, and new product launches. India business contributed 31% in the total revenue.
In Q3, sale was INR 308 crore against INR 294 crore, growth of 5%, and in nine months, sale was INR 982 crore against INR 888 crore, posting healthy growth of 11%. India business includes the revenue from trade generic of INR 38 crore in Q3 of both the current and previous years, and INR 120 crore against INR 109 crore in nine months. In nine months of the year, we have launched 13 new products, including 4 first movers. Our medical representatives' productivity has shown marked improvement, aligned with our revenue growth, while maintaining consistent MR levels.
We continue to outpace the IPM by 200 basis points, with Ajanta growing at 12%, surpassing IPM growth rate of 10%, as per IQVIA Match, December 2023. This trend extends to most of the therapeutic segments we are in, where our growth has consistently outpaced the segment growth. However, in cardiology, our growth was lower to IPM due to price revision in one of our major products in December 2022. In the covered market, we continue to be 4th largest in IPM and among top 10 in all our therapeutic segments. As per IQVIA Match, December 2023, we have 4 brands in the top 500 brands list. In our sales breakdown, cardiology contributed 38% , ophthalmology contributed 31%, dermatology contributed 22% of our India business, with remaining 9% coming from pain management. I now invite Mr.
Arvind Agrawal, CFO, to take you through the financial performance. Thank you, and over to you, Arvindji.
Thank you. Good evening, and warm welcome to the third earnings call of FY 2024. On this call, our discussion includes certain forward-looking statements which are projections or estimates about future events. These estimates reflect management's current expectations about future performance of the company. These estimates involve number of risks and uncertainty, uncertainties that could cause our actual results to differ materially from what is expressed or implied. Ajanta does not undertake any obligation to publicly update any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new confirmation, future events, or otherwise. We will look at the consolidated financials and provide year-on-year comparison. The key financial highlights for Q3 and nine months for FY 2024 are as follows: Total revenue in Q3 stood at INR 1,105 crores against INR 972 crores, posting 14% growth.
In nine months, revenue was INR 3,155 crores against INR 2,861 crores, a growth of 10%. Our gross margin came at 73% in Q3 and 75% in nine months, and same is in line with our guidance. We hope to close the year at about 75%. Personnel cost increased by 20%, part of which, about 9%, is on account of re-basing of related expenses from selling expenses, as explained in earlier earnings call, and balance on regular annual increments and additions. R&D expenses were 5% of total revenue. In Q3, it was INR 52 crores against INR 61 crores. In nine months, it was INR 157 crores against INR 174 crores. Other expenses stood at INR 266 crores in Q3. Reduction is about 22% over previous year same period.
In 9 months, it stood at INR 792 crores, reduction of about 12% from previous year same period. Reduced international logistic costs contributed favorably of about INR 34 crores in Q3 and INR 79 crores in 9 months, compared to average of FY 2023. We expect logistic costs to move up significantly in Q4 due to Red Sea crisis and higher marketing expenses in Q4, which will increase overall other expenses by about 7% over Q3. EBITDA margin was at 28% in both Q3 and 9 months. EBITDA stood at INR 314 crores against INR 130 crores in Q3, and in 9 months, at INR 894 crores against INR 588 crores. This positive performance was attributed to the combined benefits of improved gross margin, reduced logistic costs, and stabilization in US price erosion.
However, as mentioned earlier, higher other expenses in Q4 may see EBITDA little lower than nine-month average. However, we are revising our full year guidance to 27% ±1% for full year financial year 2024. Other income was at INR 14 crore in Q3 and INR 49 crore in nine months, which includes Forex gain of INR 4 crore and INR 19 crore, respectively. Income tax stood at 28% for Q3 and 27% for nine months. For FY 2024, tax is expected to be around 27%. PAT in, the PAT in Q3 was at INR 210 crore against INR 135 crore, and in nine months it was INR 614 crore against INR 466 crore, 19% of revenue from operations.
You will be pleased to note that PAT for 9 months for FY 2024 has crossed full year PAT of FY 2023. We incurred CapEx of INR 8 crores in 9 months, FY 2024. CapEx, including maintenance CapEx for FY 2024, is estimated to be at INR 125 crores against our earlier estimate of INR 150 crores. ROCE and RONW continues to improve and be comparable with the best in the industry. ROCE stands at 30% and RONW at 23% at the end of December 2023. In 9 months, FY 2024, we have generated a healthy cash flow from operations of INR 669 crores, with cash conversion ratio of 75%, and free cash flow of 346 crores with 56% cash conversion.
With these highlights, I open the floor for the question answer. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on the touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question is from the line of Rashmi Shetty from Dolat Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on this set of numbers. So on this Red Sea impact, which you mentioned, that, you know, it is going to impact the EBITDA in quarter four, is this something that it is going to impact the supplies in Asia and Africa sales in quarter four?
No, not significantly. I think whatever guidances we have given for each of the regions we should be able to meet those guidances. So overall, we've seen there is a little bit increase in the transit time of the shipments by 10-15 days it has increased. But we are going to wait and watch and monitor the situation. Maybe the inventory working capital may increase little bit because the product will be sitting in transit for a longer time than the earlier months. But I think for the next quarter, we are okay to deliver the numbers what we had given the guidance as well.
So like, for Asia business, low double digit you have given for this year, right? And, for FY 2025 and 2026, how should we look at this thing? How should we look at the growth in next two years? And, you know, we had, you know, increased our MR and everything in Asia branded and Africa branded business. So, is it something that, you know, from next year we can expect that the growth should be better because of the improving MR productivity?
Yes, absolutely. Africa, as I said in my opening remark comments, because of the inventory rationalization by our distributor, our primary sales was lower, but actually, when you see our secondary sales, it was in the mid-teens. So there is no issue as such. And Asia also, I think for the 9 months or for the whole year, we are guiding for the low-teens. So going forward also, we expect around the low-teens to mid-teens numbers for Africa and Asia.
Got it, sir. And then last question on institutional business, you know, what is really changing in the entire business? Is it that the procurement agencies have now picked up the orders for anti-malarial sales? And how should we actually see this for, you know, next two years?
See, the institution business is very predictable, which is what we've been saying always. This period is pretty much the when most of the orders come typically. So the quarter-wise, it can get skewed. As I said, in Q3, we had a higher dispatches as compared to the next upcoming quarter. So very difficult to give any kind of outlook on the institution business. It depends on how much funds they get, what is the malaria season, what is the requirement. There are so many variables which are beyond our control, so we take it as it comes.
Okay, sir. I have no question-
We can expect it to be a flattish kind of growth for the institution business.
Okay, sir. Got it. I have no question. I'll join back with you.
Thank you.
... Thank you. Next question is from the line of Sudarshan Padmanabhan from JM PMS. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question from JM PMS . One good set of numbers. So my question is, you know, in terms of strategy, you talked about, you know, the main impacting the cardiovascular segment. So given that, you know, we have cash in hand, and, you know, we have also been in the industry for such a long time that, you know, we can, you know, expand the footprint, et cetera. So can you talk a little bit more about what we can do to improve the growth, specifically in the cardiovascular space, which has been a little lower than what we had expected?
No, couple of things. One is new product launches. So we have good set of products that we have launched in the, in the sub-therapeutic segments in which we are present also. And second is just to gain market share by way of increasing more CRM activities, which is what now our focus is. And with these two things put together, we should be able to once again record faster growth compared to the industry and also go back to the growth rates that we were posting in the previous quarters and the previous years. So we don't need to really launch newer divisions as such as of now. Increasing the productivity, we have enough divisions for these brands that we have. Increasing the productivity will be the major focus.
Sure, sir. So with cash in hand, and I think, you know, a lot of companies are, you know, buying brands, making acquisitions. Do you think, you know, if as a strategy, you would be looking to acquire certain brands, well-known brands or certain divisions to accentuate your, you know, already strong presence in the domestic market?
No, certainly, we are always on the lookout for suitable, brand acquisition targets and also opportunities. If there are any such opportunities and deals that are present in the market, we have been evaluating them and, and then, deciding if they are, really apt for our business. So we are out there looking for acquisition targets. It's not that, that's not one of the, one of the focus, areas in terms of, growth levers. Inorganic growth is most welcome for us. We are, we are happy to look at that.
So one final thing before I join that is, you know, as the previous speaker spoke about FC, I mean, this, specifically this year, we have seen very strong improvement in the, you know, operating expenses. Number one, is going forward, I mean, this 27%-28% margins that we have been doing this year, how do you see the sustainability of it, and is there a risk in terms of transportation costs moving substantially with this issue to the Red Sea? What, what can one look at in terms of steady-state rates in the next 18 months, not necessarily in the next three to four months?
I think overall, the freight costs can go up, go up if at the current rate, what we have seen in the last rates, what we have discussed. The freight can go up by 0.5%, overall, so which can translate into around INR 30-35 crore increase cost as compared to the current year. So that is the impact based on the current, freight rates which are going. Any up or down can increase or deteriorate the margins accordingly. So other than that, as I said, the inventory working capital may slightly increase. For example, if US our transit time was 50 days, it can go to 65 days, any other markets also. So 15-20 days, we are seeing the increase in the transit time. So that's all about the logistics. Anything else you want to know?
More or less, it should be ± around this margin base. You don't see risk around this.
Yeah, at this point in time, we don't see as materially impacting whatever is there. I think we should be able to manage in our growth.
Yeah, just one final thing if I may squeeze in. With respect to the U.S. market, we've seen our peers, you know, talking about lower price erosion and actually, you know, reporting good numbers. One, we have Chantix, and, you know, number two, you know, are we seeing similar kind of improvement, no? And I know that this is not necessarily the prime focus of the business, but it's more opportunistic is what I'm trying to understand.
So what is the question?
With respect to the U.S., I mean, are we... You know, when do we expect Chantix to be launched? And are we also seeing the base business erosion being lower and at some point of time benefiting us as well in terms of sales growth and margin?
Yes, absolutely. The price erosion has slowed down. In the current year, we are seeing at the normal levels, which was pre-COVID levels of the high single digit. So we see that currently the U.S. market conditions are quite favorable. Chantix is a moving target. We are hoping that we get the approval anytime, and we are hoping to launch in this Q4. But I think the way it looks right now, we are looking at a Q1 of the next year launch for the Chantix .
Thanks a lot.
Sure. Sure.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Dr. Aman Kumar Singh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Good evening, all. Fantastic results. Congratulations. Just wanted to ask two questions. One is on, have we taken the impact of, you know, launch of anti-malarial vaccine in Africa? So like, what impact it is going to have on our business? So if you can just say that.
... No, vaccines, we, we are not in the vaccines business. So, we've seen the GSK and, I think one more vaccine which is there. It's very slow in the rollout, in the Africa, and it's going to take a lot of time for the vaccine, vaccination happen. Also, the efficacy of that vaccine is significantly lower as compared to the other vaccines which are being there for the other, other elements. So overall, I think next, 3-5 years, we don't see the vaccines to be having a meaningful impact on the anti-malarial market in Africa.
Okay, I think good. Another question is that what Sudarshan was actually asking the same thing. We have so much cash, which we are actually giving back to the shareholders in terms of a very hefty dividend. But can't this cash be deployed in a more meaningful manner by, you know, either organically expanding or inorganically expanding the business?
No, definitely. That's always the outlook and the objective. The only way we can use the cash is only for the acquisitions. Right now, whatever we have seen, scanned, the businesses and markets, the acquisition can happen only in the branded generic space, primarily.
Mm-hmm.
But we are open to any other acquisitions also. But right now, we don't have any candidate for which we would like to keep the cash in the company. So we thought the cash flows are pretty strong, they'll continue to be strong. And if we have a good candidate, we'll have enough cash to make the acquisition. So I think it's all about finding the right candidate. I think that's of the time important, and that's very difficult to time.
So, do we-
Yeah. Yeah, go ahead.
Please go ahead. I think you were saying something.
No, no. As Rajesh said, we are always open and, you know, willing to look at the targets there. It has to make sense for us 2-3 ways, which is very common generic, which I'll be telling you. It has to fit in our product portfolio, it has to be the sunrise molecules, it has to be newer molecules, and it has to be reasonably priced, which we feel good about it. So after putting 3-4 filters, we are very, you know, willing to look at the new candidate, the acquisition candidates.
Okay. So just last question, I mean, just, assumptions, so do we expect in future that whatever is the dividend yield for this year, we expect the similar kind of a yield for at least coming one or two years?
Depends on what kind of CapEx plans we have, and what is the acquisition candidates. If not, then last year also, our dividend payout, including buyout, both together, was very sizable. And current year also is in the similar ratio. So I can give you a directional outlook, that if there is no use for the money in the company, of course, it will be paid back to the shareholders.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you, Jitendra.
Sure. Sure.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Harsh from Bandhan AMC. Please go ahead.
Yes, thank you. Just in terms of the, cardiac, performance, sort of repetitive in nature, but, just to understand the last 2, 3 quarter underperformance, I mean, one senses the NLEM impact. But if one were to look at the overall molecule structure per se, let's say, metoprolol and the other statin, families, would you say that there is some level of market share loss across, statins? Or would you say that majority of the impact continues to be at the NLEM level?
So major impact is because of the NLEM, price reductions that have happened. But, also, as you have correctly pointed out, the competitive intensity in the marketplace has increased, dramatically as we see in the last, one odd year. So there is, some small bit of maybe insignificant, market loss happening in, statin plus combinations and some of the other combination products in which we are present. Having said that, we, we have gone through this before in other specialties also, and, we have stepped up our efforts, by way of the CRM activities that we can do in an effort to, regain the market share.
Okay. In terms of the addition to the field force, just qualitatively, if you could help to understand where is the new field force in terms of the contribution or productivity, combined with the fact that in the international space, we are targeting a more focused approach. So on that spectrum, like, how should we think, see the things?
Okay. What's the question? I didn't hear the question correctly.
You were not very audible. Sorry to say that, if you can... So you need to know about the productivity of the MR in the domestic or international? International space, the addition that we have made to the field force, where are we on the spectrum of productivity, combined with the fact that we are taking a more focused approach to the specialists in the international market.
Very broad question. So yeah, we made a significant additions in the international market, for which last year we've seen the productivity dipped little. But as we are getting more productive and they're getting more in the maturity curve, we are seeing the productivity to bounce back up... current year, and next year, of course, it will go further up as well.
Okay. And lastly, the volume growth for the India market, could you help us understand the volume versus value spread on a Y1 basis?
Would you like to know the breakup of the growth in terms of volume or price?
And new products, is that-
Yeah. So the volume growth for Ajanta is 4%, whereas for the industry it is 2.6%. These are MAT December figures. So Ajanta is growing at a healthy 1.5 times the growth rate of the market growth-
Right.
In terms of volume. The price growth, IPM, is at 4.3%. Ajanta is at 3.9%. As you would already understand, this is due to the NLEM impact that we have had to undergo. And on the new products, again, we are superior compared to the industry. IPM is at 3%, whereas Ajanta's contribution of new product growth is 3.7%.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay, bye.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Kunal Randeria , from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening, sir. So the last two or three quarters, we have seen that, you know, your R&D has been annualizing close to INR 200-220 crore. Now that the US outlook is slightly better than what you had emphasized a year, a year and a half back, are you planning to increase your R&D and filing going ahead?
Yeah, the next year filing will be higher. Current year, we had given the targets for 6-8 ANDAs, and we will be meeting our target for the current year. We will be filing 8 ANDAs for the current year. Next year, we are taking the target of 8-12 ANDAs. So the filing will go up. Correspondingly, there'll be incremental increase in the R&D cost, not very significant, because we have gone through a very significant exercise of cost optimization across the organization, including R&D and manufacturing. Because of which we see that certain benefits will come in. So there'll be a marginal increase in the R&D spend, but probably percentage-wise, it should remain around the same of the current year.
Yeah. Since you've thrown the R&D, you know, from the past weeks, just want to understand, what's the thought process behind product selection?
For which markets?
US.
U.S., three, four things. One is the complexities. When the products are P2, the landscape is pretty much known. The fact is, it is a limited competition in a P2 where the patents have expired, means it is a complex product. So you have to take a calculated bet on how many of such complex products you want to have in the pipeline. Then we look at the P3 products, and we do the modeling, seeing that between the delayed release, extended release, controlled release, challenging products. Then we do a certain modeling, and we select the products from there, depending on the competitive intensity we estimate it to be. There are certain P4 products, which we feel good about, getting into, you know, filing those P4.
There are various paragraphs for each of the patent certification filing, which we do. It's a quite intense process which it goes through.
Out of this 10 products that you'll be filing, how many would be P4?
I don't have that data with me right away. I don't have that data. Maybe, I think that-
Rajeev can give you later.
Probably, yeah.
Okay. So the second question is, you know, see, in India, you're not expanding your sales force, right? And in Africa and Asia, I believe, already expanded. So, you know, from an OpEx perspective, you know, there doesn't seem, besides the normal inflation, there doesn't seem to be a lot of other OpEx that you will be doing. Also, you know, so what is the risk to your margin going to 30%, in a couple of years' time? So I'm asking Ajanta specific risk, you know, something like a trade is like, you know, a problem for the entire industry. So what, what's the risk?
U.S. price erosion is one unknown variable which is there, which we've seen in the past. Last year it impacted very significantly. Currently, the environment is very stable, and our current margin also reflecting our U.S. performance, current year also. So that is one variable. Second could be institution business, any flexible, any variables, variance in that. So these are the two primary things. Other things, as you rightly said, other branded generic business is pretty predictable. The growth percentages may vary, but they are pretty predictable. So, as we've guided, and we've always been guiding, last year also, our margins shrank, and we've given a guidance that current year we should bounce back to 26%.
Current year, we are faring much better than our guidance what we have given. We have revised our guidance to 27% now. Going forward also, we believe that in the coming years, it should inch up. How much and which year difficult to say. We don't want to give that much forward-looking outlook, but it should continue to grow.
Got it. Got it. And just last one, if I may. So your productivity in PCPM in India would be around INR 4 lakh or slightly thereabouts. So given your portfolio, what do you think is the optimum level after which you would maybe look at sales or expansion?
You know, there are. So this productivity is on a blended basis for the entire India business. But if you look at the individual marketing teams. The teams are on varied levels, and if you look at specialties also, for example, the benchmark in cardiology in terms of productivity cannot be the same benchmark in ophthalmology, clearly because of the smaller size of market and smaller, lesser business and prescription potential. So, so on a blended basis, you know, hard to say, we really don't benchmark in a way that if we touch this particular productivity, that we would like to expand.
We are constantly scanning the opportunities that are present, and as and when we feel that, there is one in present and we can capitalize on that, then we will certainly look at expanding by way of adding more MR, either by launch of new divisions or by adding them into existing teams.
Okay, just kind of rephrase my question. So of the four divisions that, I mean, four therapies you have, which ones do you believe are close to optimum, and which would be maybe, you know, still some distance away from that?
I think overall, we are doing reasonably well because we are the second largest company, and also in terms of productivity, we are very competitive with the largest company and the third largest company, so that's the benchmark. In cardiology, we have enough head space to grow. Our productivity is much lower compared to some of the other likewise competitors. And so it is in derma and pain. I think we have a long way to go in both of these segments. So, so this is what it is.
Okay, got it. Thank you, sir, and all the best.
Just to close in on your field expansion, there would be a marginal field expansion, not a substantial one as we have done in the last two years. But going forward, that continues to be a marginal field expansion will continue to happen across the organization, blended basis, India and overseas. Because we have continuously product being getting launched. It will not be as significant, but there will be continuously some percentage of field expansion will continue to happen.
India, you haven't done any expansion in the last 3 or 4 years, right?
Yeah. No.
Yes, you're right.
In India, no.
No.
Yeah, in India, no. It was primarily in the international markets.
Okay, got it, sir. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask questions. Next question is from the line of Tushar Manudhane from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. So just on the India business, clarification, like, what kind of growth we can anticipate for FY 2024, given that, you know, currently, FY 2024 was a bit softer?
I think, couple of things. One is, it's hard to predict right away because the IPM, which you would have seen, the data of the growth rates of the IPM, has been a bit inconsistent in the past six months. We have had growth rates of 4%, 5%, then suddenly 17%, then again, 8%. So it's been a bit inconsistent. We are in touch with IQVIA. We are also monitoring the prescription data from the consulting agencies to really be able to predict for the coming year. However, for Ajanta, our aspiration will be to outpace the market growth rate, especially in the covered market growths.
We are still about to enter into our next year budgeting sessions and all of that, so we have no particular outlook, which I can primarily share with you at this point. It's a bottom-up process. It takes some bit of time, but we should be out with our guidance in the next quarterly investor call, hopefully.
Yeah, but FY 2024, we are talking about low teens.
FY 2024
Yeah.
Yeah, FY 2024, we stick to, we stick to our original guidance, which was low teens. Low, low, low double digits.
Yeah.
12%-13%.
Yeah.
Tushar, are you there?
We got disconnected from the line of Mr. Tushar.
Okay.
Moving on to next participant. Next question is from the line of Harsh Beria from an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir, am I audible?
Yes, absolutely.
Perfect. Congratulations for a great mean reversion in our margins. It's really good to see that we are coming back to our 30%, almost 30% level. My first question is regarding our emerging market business. So if I see correctly, we have launched about 20 products in 9 months and maybe 10 products this quarter itself. So in that case, like, when we are launching so many products, why are we only expecting low double-digit growth in this market going ahead?
It's a combination of mature brands, where the growths are slightly lower, and the new brands, the growths are very on a higher side. So combination of all that put together, that's where we are, we are estimating it to be the low teens to mid-teens growth.
Okay. My second question is about our Indian market share, but in our covered markets. So we do give our IPM rankings, but we are obviously not present in all therapies. So in our covered market, what is our market share or what is our IPM rank?
Our ranking in each specialty, we have-
For ophthalmology, we are the second.
Yeah. Overall, as a company-
Covered market.
In the covered market, we are, I think tenth, right?
Fourth, I think.
Fourth, fourth, fourth rank.
Fourth rank.
We are fourth rank in the covered market-
Covered market
... that we are present in across all specialties.
More representation.
Then there are rankings are different as compared to different. So for in ophthalmology, in the covered market, we are ranked first, and so on and so forth. I think you would find that in the investor presentation also. In cardiology, we are tenth ranked in the covered market. In ophthalmology, we are number one. In derma, we are number two in the covered market. Pain management, we are eleventh ranked in the covered market.
Okay. My final question is about ophthalmology division. We are seeing very good growth coming back in this division. What is the difference between the number one player and Ajanta at this point?
So by way of prescriptions, if you look at the total number of prescriptions, we are already number one. And we have been consistently first or highest prescription-generating company in the country for quite some time. This is by way of sales. The number one company has brands which have been built over decades, which are hard to really, hard to really catch up upon in a short span. So therefore the difference. But, but, you know, that's not really the only thing. What's most important is by way of prescriptions, we are able to generate far more prescriptions than this. And in ophthalmology, our growth rate is by far faster than the segment growth. Primarily, we are one of the companies which is driving the growth rates of the segment in this, in this particular segment.
Great. And on this note, I have a final question, which is about our prescription generation. Can you also share the figure as to how many of our own medicines are prescribed on a per prescription basis? Is this something you're comfortable sharing?
Yeah. We have not been giving out this data. You know, as such, it's a very intricate data that's perhaps best left with the company.
Okay, I understand that. Thanks for answering all my questions.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Tushar Manudhane from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Am I audible now?
Yes, sir.
Yes, and I think you got missed, so we... Can you repeat your question?
Yeah. I was actually referring for FY 2024, that you've grown by, say, 10%-11% for nine months, and we are talking about 12%-13% for full year of 2024. So does it mean that we'll grow at a pretty healthy rate of 14%-15% for Q4 in particular?
For Q4? Q4. No, we don't, we don't anticipate growing at 15% for Q4. Our guidance was low double digit, so we could be, we could be landing by the end of the year at about, 11%-12% growth rate. Sorry, please?
15%, Q4.
Q4, 15% is what... Okay. So our aspiration is to cross 15% for Q4.
Okay. Sure.
This is what our aim is. All the efforts are towards that. So you are right in having.
Right. And then secondly, on EBITDA margin, where the guidance is of 27% ±1-
Yeah.
Nine months, we are already at 28.
Yes.
So, does it mean that you would be much lower in terms of EBITDA margin for Q4?
Not much lower. That's why we said 27 ± 1%. Basically, because one is the higher freight cost, which is coming in now. So the benefit which we got in earlier quarter, that will not be there. And also some more, filings and some other expenses are there. So because of that, we are expecting it to be little lower. So overall, for the whole year, we are expecting over 27% ± 1%.
Okay, sir. Okay. Thank you.
Yeah, thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from Ask Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah, good evening. I hope I'm audible.
Yeah, yeah, you are audible. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So, for the tax rate this and next year, what should we sort of, you know, pencil in?
I think, the current rate is about 28%, right?
Twenty-seven.
27.9, so 28% around. I think we will, we expect the same rate to continue for the next year also.
Okay. And in terms of working capital, have you indicated that transit times are rising due to Red Sea. Does that have any impact on working capital for you?
Slightly, it will be increasing. You know, fortunately, we have been able to manage working capital quite well, as you must have seen in the ratio that, you know, we have brought down inventory to 68 days. So it may again go up to about 80 days, like last year. So that can be there. That is possible, as the MD also guided. You know, because of the delays in the deliveries, I think there can be some increase on that count.
Okay. I think, you know, this year, on the NLEM products, the WPI-linked price increases are of the order of 12% or so. WPI now is very weak, negative territory. So the next year, if, you know, if WPI remains where it is, and you're not given any exemption from WPI link increases, what impact does it have, or how does it portend for your India sales?
WPI, as per our calculations, until December looks like nearly the same, 0.01% on a negative side. So it's, let's just say that it's the same. So, so yeah, it's going to be a neutral impact. We will not be able to recover some of the input costs that incrementally are incurred by all companies. So that's, that's a regrettable part, but, it will remain exactly the same as what it is. So there's no negative impact in some sense.
Yeah, I get that. I'm just trying to understand what, I mean, what part of your India sales in percentage terms?
1% of our domestic portfolio is covered under NLEM exposure.
Okay. All right. All right. Finally, sir, if you could just restate your, your FY 2024 full year guidances for the Asia and Africa business. I missed that. I mean, you would have given some number right at the start of the call, I think.
For the Asia full year will be the low teens. Africa full year will be mid to high single digits. Yeah.
All right, sir. Thank you. I'll get back in touch.
Thank you. A reminder to all participants, you may press star and one to ask questions. As there are no further questions from participants, I now hand the conference over to Mr. Yogesh Agrawal for closing comments.
Thank you, everyone, for joining this call. In case if there are any questions that left unanswered, please reach out to our investor relations team. Thank you for joining.
Thank you. On behalf of Ajanta Pharma, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Bye.
Thank you.