Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to AWL Agri Business Q2 FY 2026 earnings conference call hosted by ICICI Securities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchstone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Dhiraj Mistry from ICICI Securities. Thank you, and over to you, Mr. Mistry.
Hey, hi. Good morning, everyone. I would like to thank the management of AWL Agri Business Ltd to give this opportunity to host this call. From the management, we have with us Mr. Angshu Mallick , Executive Deputy Chairman; Mr. Shrikant Kanhere, MD and CEO; Mr. Somin Seth, Executive Director and CEO; and Mr. Pankaj Goyal, Interim CFO. Over to you, sir.
Yeah, thank you very much, Mr. Mistry. A very warm welcome and very warm good morning to all the participants who are joining the call. I'll take you through a quick deck, just to talk about the performance of the company for the quarter two as well as H1. For the quarter two, we delivered a volume of 1.68 million versus Q1 volume of 1.58, which gives us a sequential volume growth of 7% and year-on-year volume growth of 2%. EBITDA, we were able to deliver plus of INR 600 crore against INR 572 of Q1. That is also a sequential growth of 7% in EBITDA. As far as the year-on-year is concerned, the degrowth of 9%. Last year has been exceptional and had some cyclical gains of the commodity cycle we had last year. That's why it is negative on year-on-year.
On the PAT, INR 245 crore consolidated PAT against INR 238 of last quarter, the sequential growth of 3% and 21% degrowth when we look at the PAT of INR 311 crore for the same quarter last year. The strong sequential momentum was, in fact, suggestive of the fact that now the sluggishness in the demand that we saw in the Q1 and to some extent in Q2 is now recovering as the edible oil prices now getting to a normalized level. When we look at the half-year number, it's more or less similar kind of trend to what we had in Q2. On H1, we delivered a total volume of 3.26 million against 3.31 million of last year. That is kind of flattish growth. As far as the EBITDA is concerned, delivered EBITDA close to INR 1,200 crore against INR 1,300 crore of last year.
That is degrowth of 13%. On PAT, the consolidated PAT at INR 483 against INR 624 of last year. That is a degrowth of 23%. On per ton, in fact, we were able to deliver what we have been saying in our earlier calls as well as a lot of communication with the investing community. We have been able to deliver a gross margin of plus of INR 11,000 per ton and also the EBITDA of plus of about INR 3,500 per ton on H1 as well as Q2. In terms of the market context, for this oil year, what we are seeing is the imports actually are flattish. In fact, when we look at overall import, they have reduced by, they have degrown by 3%.
However, one phenomenon which is hitting the industry quite for some time is the imports from Nepal, with which India has got a SAFTA agreement. The oil coming from Nepal, because Nepal has got a differential duty plus the oil which comes from Nepal has got a differential duty structure, and it is cheaper than in general edible oil that companies import. That is hitting hard, as far as the imports are concerned. That's why the imports have decreased to the extent now Nepal import is close to 12% of overall import that India is doing to reduce, particularly for the soy. Most of the import from Nepal is actually coming in the PAT form, which is again something very not good for the industry as a whole.
Crude oil prices trend, I think, finally, we are seeing the trends which are very normalized kind of trend where the palm is sitting at the low, the cheapest oil today, and sun is the costliest oil today. However, the only thing which is still not settling is the spread between the palm and soy, which is quite low at this point of time. Of course, this is also having some kind of impact on, in general, the demand for the soy PAT oil. Just to give a glimpse of how the industry is performing, I mean, the source for this data is, of course, Nielsen. Edible oil grew by 1% in the quarter two. Similarly, I think, 1% for the Q1 also. That is, that's what we have seen for the entire half. The growth in edible oil has not been seen.
We can also put some reason to this for a gramage play that has been happening in this industry for since last year or so, where the gramage packed, the pouch, the typical pouch in which edible oil normally used to get sold today, and it's one of the highest selling SKU might be for most of the PAT players, now getting packed with a content of even 720, 750 grams kind of SKU sizes against the 910 standard size which used to be earlier. This is also playing to some extent. I'm not putting everything on the gramage play, but the industry's, what the point I'm trying to play around here is, there's a sluggishness in the edible oil industry which we have seen in the H1. Wheat flour grew by 4% and 7% in Q1 and Q2.
Similarly, Basmati has also got a growth of mid-single digit for the H1. Another data point which is suggestive of the fact that the growth or the demand is sluggish for PAT food product is recently, last week, data released by the Ministry of Statistics, MOSPI, suggests that particularly in the fast-moving consumer good, the non-durable fast-moving consumer good in which the edible oil and all the PAT, staple and food comes in, is actually contracting. The data suggests that FY 2023 and FY 2024, this industry grew by 3.4% and 1.4% respectively. However, for FY 2025, it contracted by 2.7%. For the H1 of FY 2026, it contracted by 0.8%. This is again suggesting some sluggishness. I think, having said that, all this data is suggesting only for the H1. I think now India has entered into H2, which is more happening.
Half for India, given the fact that most of the festivities in India falls in this half, starting from Diwali till Holi. We are quite hopeful that this scenario will change as we go forward. On the business update, as I suggested, as I said, read out in the first slide, we delivered 1.68 million tons of volume, which is 2% growth year-on-year. However, if we normalize this volume with the government-to-government export business that we had last year, which was a one-time business which we did, it was a one-time opportunity that, in fact, came to us. If we normalize with that, I think the total volume growth instead of 2% will be 4%. Revenue growth is plus of 20% for us. Of course, the revenue growth is driven by high commodity prices. The other highlight for the performance during the quarter, of course, remains an alternate channel.
We remain quite optimistic and excited about this channel. Now, alternate channel is clocking on LTM basis, which is last 12 months, September 2025, has clocked more than INR 4,400 crore of revenue. It is growing very fast, in which quick commerce is growing more than 80%-85% for us. Branded export, again, is something which is very exciting for us. Last year we started some activities around it, and it has been growing. It in this particular basket grew by now 37% on LTM basis for the September 2025. In general, edible oil highlights, I would only highlight one thing. The volume seek volume growth of 2%. However, when we look at a three-year CAGR for the edible oil, it is at 7%. That is what we target to achieve, which is mid-single digit growth in edible oil as we go forward.
Revenue of 26% growth is more from the high prices. PBT of INR 171 crore, 55% drop as compared to last year. This has got a couple of reasons. One is, of course, the low volume itself. Second, of course, is, we had some interest, additional interest charges or finance charges, which we have to bear in the P&L because the kind of demand which we had planned basis which the procurement was happened, we could not see that demand. Therefore, there was some bump up in the working capital leading to higher interest costs, which was absorbed in this particular quarter. However, the working capital levels will get normalized in next quarter. We will see the benefit of the inventory which is procured earlier, finally delivering in the next quarter.
The other thing, of course, is, in our scheme of the things, you will always have some kind of cyclical plus and minus gains and losses which gets translated to the next quarter or which gets preformed to this quarter. That is putting that impact. I think the edible oil, we have been able to deliver a reasonably good number in terms of volume as well as the bottom. When we talk about the food and FMCG, the degrowth of 10% on the volume, we did close to 320,000 tons of volume. However, if we normalize this again by the government-to-government business of rice export last year we had, I think this 10% will go up and it will look like a flattish growth in the food segment. That is how it looks like.
The flattish growth is also coming from a fact that we saw in this particular quarter, we saw a lot of competition, particularly in the wheat flour, coming in from the small regional players. I think that is only a short-term phenomenon. Companies like us, I think it is only a quarter phenomenon. As we go forward, we should be able to recover from this and should give a better growth on the food basket. The earnings or a PBT is a good story again. We delivered a profit of INR 56 crore on entire food basket, which earlier used to be a EBITDA neutral kind of this thing. Of course, on the full-year basis, we, on a H1 basis, we delivered INR 132 crore. When we look at the market share, we have been able to recover our market share in the Basmati Rice.
When we look at the quarter number, January-September 2024 to January-September 2025, similar period, market share has gone up from 7.3 to 7.7 in the Basmati wheat flour. We were able to maintain our market share at 5.5. As we go forward, we should be able to consolidate this market share from here. Our other food products are doing good. The sugar recorded 20%+ kind of growth. Poha recorded 30% + kind of growth. Soya nuggets, which is one of the hero products in our food basket in terms of the margin profile, actually marginally declined. I mean, the reason for that is, in fact, we were growing till August. The entire impact came only in September because this is the product in our overall category which has got an impact of the GST 2.0, where the GST was reduced from 18% to 5%.
Immediately after the announcement by the finance minister, the offtake from the market was slowed down. The trade in general was waiting for the GST to come in play before start ordering. That was the reason why the soya nuggets was marginally declined. I think as we go forward in the next quarter, it should be recovered fully. Industry essential, again, good story for us. We grew by 20% on volumes, three-year CAGR of 8%. We delivered one of the best margins for this particular segment, more driven coming from the Oleo business. We had some positive commodity cycle playing in this particular segment, particularly for the. Glycerin and, glycerin and the soap noodles. This is a good story for us. I think normalized profits also should continue as we look at the next quarter. On subsidiaries, I'll talk a little bit on GD Foods, which we acquired in April.
I think it is too short a time to call out the numbers. But I think we have been able to deliver reasonably good numbers. We have grown by 8% on volumes and 4% on revenue. GD also has got a significant impact because of the GST 2.0. Because most of, in fact, all the products of GD Foods actually moved from 18% to 5%. In H2, in fact, we should see a lot of demand coming in and this company growing in double digits on volume as well as revenue. We have done a lot of work around distribution, leveraging AWL's distribution to see that this company grows. In the month of August and September, we did a lot of combo offers along with our atta for Tops products, including sauces and jams, which received a very good response from the market. Bangladesh, finally things are looking good.
We had a very bad last two years, 2023 and 2024. Now this year, it is improving. The business environment in the country has improved. We have been able to get some traction now. Although the volumes declined only because we are now strictly committing ourselves to only branded volumes rather than selling the loose also. That is the reason why the volumes declined. However, on the profitability, we have been able to show a positive number in this country. On channels, general trade, I will not talk too much. I think the most exciting channel for us remains alternate channel. Alternate channel grew by 35% for us in Q2, in which quick commerce actually grew by 86%. When we look at market share of AWL in quick commerce, in most of the products, our market share is significantly high.
Soya oil, we are commanding more than 50% of market share. Mustard oil, we are commanding more than 40% of market share in this particular channel. It is a good developing story for us. As we go forward, I think India will be doing more and more purchasing on these channels. We are doing a lot of efforts around this and activities around this to see that this channel continues to grow. On distribution, we continued our efforts to grow the distribution. Now, as end of September 2025, we are reaching close to 900,000 outlets directly, though our aim is to reach 1 million outlets. In urban towns, more than 100,000 + population, I think we are reaching every town. It is a 100% coverage of more than 100,000 population town. Rural town, which is the something which we are working on.
Now we have close to 58,000 in our fold, which is up by close to 8,000 towns from March 2025 and significant growth since March 2020 when we were reaching only in the 3,000 + kind of towns. This is it from my side. As far as the performance update is concerned, I think I took a little more time. Anyway, I'll leave it down now. I'll request moderator to open the floor for question and answer. Myself, Mr. Mallick, and Somin and Pankaj are here to answer your questions.
Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touchstone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question comes from the line of Raghav Maheshwari with Titiksha Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good morning. I wanted to ask about the, my question was about the margins, actually. Like in the presentation, was mentioned a couple of times that it was due to a higher base effect. Apart from that, when we are analyzing, like, let's say on a COGS basis on your revenue, last year's COGS was approximately 87% of your revenue, and this year it was 88.5%. Where do we see these margins stabilizing? When do we see these margins stabilizing? Are we at the bottom right now? I would want to know your opinion on that.
Yeah, I'll, in fact, what I will guide you is better.
In our scheme of the things, instead of looking at anything as a percentage of revenue, I think my suggestion to you is that you should look at a quarter basis because in our scheme of the things, revenue goes haywire sometime because of the commodity prices. Therefore, not necessarily the COGS may set in terms of the percentage or EBITDA may set in the terms of the percentage. What you should be looking at is the gross margins and the EBITDA. On overall levels, I think what the benchmark that we follow and has been guiding all the investing community is that the gross margin should be in the range of INR 11,000 a ton and EBITDA of INR 3,500 a ton. We are there as far as this quarter is concerned. However, having said that, last year it was a quite significantly higher number.
The reason for that we have been explaining is that last year we had a couple of good commodity cycle gains and inventory gains, which we are sitting in last year's number. Last year's number is an exceptional number and not a representative number as such. That is what you should keep in mind when you do the calculation. I think you should be able to get a better understanding of this.
Understood, sir. Any future guidance that you can provide us?
The future guidance, I think, remains the same. I think with the run rate at which we are today running, which is close to INR 11,000 a ton of gross margins and INR 3,500 a ton of EBITDA per ton, we should continue to deliver that. I do not see any risk as such in delivering that in H2.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. That is all from my side.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Next question comes from the line of Harit Kapoor with Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Good morning. I just had a couple of questions. One was on the industry essentials piece. If you could just give a little bit more detail, you know, the H1 has actually been quite good. I think you mentioned that Oleo has kind of driven this growth. How much of the share of industry essentials now is Oleo chemicals? How different currently are the margins for Oleo versus, say, caster and deoil cakes in your mix? The idea here is just to understand what can be a sustainable kind of a per ton number that we should look at.
I know it is volatile, but Oleo is relatively lesser volatility. If you could explain it Q2, 1H as well as the outlook.
Yeah, Harit, I think on industry essential, there are three subsegments to it. One is, of course, Oleo, as mentioned by you. Second is the caster oil. Third is your deoil cakes and meals within good rapeseed meal and, of course, the soya meal. This quarter number, of course, is driven more from Oleo. As I said in my opening remarks, we had some good calls on, particularly for the glycerin and the stearic acid. Those are the things which have actually given us an exceptionally good number. However, having said that, the reasonable number for the industry essential overall, rather, I would put, because many times what happens is you also have a good run in deoil cake also.
Overall, what we look at is similar to what is our overall number, which is close to INR 11,000 a ton of gross margin and close to INR 3,000 a ton of EBITDA. In this, EBITDA is a little less. You can configure that way if you really want to build a model on industry essential per se.
Got it. Got it, sir. Thank you very much. The other thing was on edible oils. Now, you very clearly mentioned how the pricing trend has worked for the different oils. And also that, you know, H1 from an industry volume perspective has been quite low. I was just trying to get your sense about how do you foresee H2? Do you see that because of these, you know, differences in pricing that, you know, palm oil will continue to be, the palm oil piece will continue to be under pressure?
And from your perspective, you know, palm oil is a reasonable mix. So, do you expect that there is an improvement in the volume growth for H2 here or because of this palm oil, you know, prices still being, you know, pretty firm versus soya, there will be an impact? Just wanted to get your thoughts on that.
Okay. See, in H1, you have seen our rupee value turnover has increased by almost 22% plus. That is mainly driven by the higher edible oil prices. And this has impacted consumption. Going forward, what changes we are seeing is that palm prices, which were higher in the beginning of the year, have now come down, and it is at the lower level, which normally it should be. Soya bean is priced very close to palm, soya and palm will always be same level.
Sunflower is a little high now, but after November, it is likely to come down after the harvest season and the new processing starts in Russia and Ukraine from October to November. Now, with the GST cut, most of the numkeen, frying, bakery, these, all the products, the taxes are now at 5%. We expect a jump in consumption of snack foods, particularly fried items, numkins, and bakery products. When this happens, obviously, edible oil is an integral part of these products. So edible oil consumption is likely to go up through this route. And, we being one of the largest institutional suppliers to all the institutions in the country, obviously we see higher consumption in the out-of-home consumption segment.
Now, as far as in the home consumption is concerned, marriage season, better agri production expected, of course, rains have impacted in large part of the country, but still overall the agriculture production should be better. More important is the rubby crop that will come up now, wheat, mustard seed, and chana, three major crops, which will be harvested in February, March. If that crop comes up well, obviously the rural consumption is likely to be more. H2 is always almost 60% of the consumption and H1 is 40%. That is how we look at consumption. I think H2 should be much more better.
Got it. Those were my questions. I'll come back for more. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Next question comes from the line of Pallavi with Sameeksha. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. Thank you for taking my question. I wanted to understand. I'm sure better.
Sorry for interrupting. Pallavi, we cannot hear you. Your voice is breaking. Can you come in the range and talk?
Yeah. Is it better?
I'm sorry. Your voice is still breaking.
Is it better?
Y es, please go ahead.
Yeah. So I wanted to understand the difference, for the Nepal issue. What's the difference in import duty for the loose and the packed form of oil? And, how do we see this getting resolved in, the second half for the industry?
Okay. As far as Nepal is concerned, they do not export any loose oil. As per the SAFTA agreement, they can export, after only value addition. And they are exporting only in packed form, mostly in, 600 or 700 gram pouches. And that also 90% is soya bean oil. Now, they export at 0% duty.
And, there is a differential duty because we import and pay 16.5, whereas Nepal brings at zero. So obviously, Nepal has a pricing advantage over domestic production. One, two, all the bordering areas of Nepal, particularly UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, Bengal, are all in the proximity of Nepal in terms of freight because our nearest port is Haldia. From Haldia, if I have to send to UP or there, our freights are higher than Nepal. Technically speaking, Nepal has a lot of advantage. That is why, almost 15% of Indian soya bean oil imports comes now from Nepal at 0% duty.
So, sir, has this increased over last year and caused the disruption?
See, last year it started with around 90,000 a month when the duty went up in India, in September. But then in the month of May, the duty was reduced by 10%. Some impact happened.
But still today, 60,000-65,000 tons is coming every month.
Right, right. This problem will continue into the second half also in terms of impacting our volume?
It looks like it will continue because, as per the SAFTA agreement, I do not think there is much the government can do. Although we, as a trade body, have been asking the government to put some canalizing agencies so that there is some restriction in terms of the quality and value addition, which, once it was agreed, but nothing much has moved.
Okay. My second question was, you know, on the margins in the Q commerce, are they similar to GP or are they lower given the discounting?
See, earlier, e-commerce margins were much higher than general trade.
Slowly what is happening in e-commerce also, there is a lot of pressure to promote and keep your brand on top of mind, on the consumers. As you know, there is a lot of competition in the e-commerce also, not within the oil segment I am talking. Between FMCG products, there is a competition. The ATA brand may push ATA's oil, may do oil, chocolates may do chocolate. E-commerce generally promotes it through whoever gives them more money. E-commerce is still better in margin, but it used to give us even better margin than general trade, which is now, I would say, at par or a little more than general trade.
My last question is, what would be the share of institutional sales for our oil business? Percentage?
Today, overall oil, we sell to institutions almost 20% of our total volume, mainly to big institutions like Parle, Britannia, Nestlé, Mondelez, KFC, then you have Haldiram, Bikaji, Balaji, all these types of institutions for frying oil, for bakery products, for value-added, sunflower oil and soya bean oil.
Right. It is difficult to understand the 2% decline, I mean, for volume, you know, given institutional, I thought, yeah, that would be larger, and that is why the consumer cannot, you know.
No, institutions also were not doing so well in the first half of the year. They had got impacted in September also because after the announcement of cut, their sales also were, their productions were actually stopped for some time because they wanted to clear their old stocks. The first half, institutions were under pressure, particularly Q1.
Going forward, with the GST rationalization and coming down to 5%, a lot of unbranded products will now get into the official fold. We expect brands, good brands, to do even better.
Okay. The last question is on the market share loss that you have seen around 100 basis points, 17% in the oil. Is that, is not that reverse? What would be the reason?
See, we are very strong in North India, particularly Delhi, Haryana, Punjab, UP, Bihar, Bengal, Jharkhand. These are our strength areas. These are the areas where the Nepal, low-cost soya bean oil has impacted, and we being the largest player. Let me tell you, we have over 50% market share in Bihar, over 55%-60% in Delhi, 60% in Haryana, Punjab. Obviously, we being the largest shareholder, there we got impacted because of the cheaper Nepalese brands.
Right.
Nepal share would be how much in the market share, the Nepal oil?
I think Nepal oil put together is in the range of around 2%-3% overall, overall market share that they have.
Right. Okay. Thank you, sir.
Okay.
Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Kunal Shah with Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Hi, thank you for the opportunity. My first question was on this data point which you have provided, which is, your standalone sales, branded sales in foods, grew 7%. I just wanted to understand, does this include regional rice as well? Because I presume there will be some branded component in that. If yes, what would be the growth if you take out that factor as well? Just like for like, growth in branded sales. These are all branded packed food that we are talking of.
The growth has mainly come from basmati rice, sugar, and wheat flour in Q2. Would this number also have some impact due to regional rice consolidation, or this would not be impacted?
Yes, but regional rice, if you look at the packed regional rice, branded is always less. Mostly it is all exported or G2G, what was happening last year. This year we have exported regional rice, but the volumes are not as high as last year.
No, Kunal, to answer your question straight, yes, the regional rice rationalization does have an impact on the food growth, including the G2G one-time business which we had.
Understood. For this number to improve, the key drivers will be, let's say, improvement in wheat flour and soya chunk, right, in the next few quarters.
Yeah, of course it is. Yeah. Wheat flour, sugar, rice, all have to grow.
I mean, wheat flour and rice have got a significantly 60%-65% weightage in our food basket. These two have to grow. There is no doubt about it. Sugar has now also become quite a significant player in our overall scheme because we are selling 5,000 tons a month of sugar. Of course, all these three have to grow to deliver better numbers in H2.
Understood. If you can give some guidance on, do you think the H2 food growth should be back to your long-term guidance of that mid-teens sort of a number, or that would be a bit aspirational?
I think so, yes, because second half, we did not have any G2G business. It was normal business. H2 should be as good or even better than last year's second half.
Understood. That is clear. My second question is on oils.
When you say overall profitability will remain in that 3,500-3,600 mark, would it be fair to assume that oils can see better numbers which will get reinvested in foods, or we cannot look at it that way?
Yeah, I think that is how it will work because whatever the 3,500 guidance we give, we give on the blended testing. I think in our presentation, we have shared the EBITDAs segment-wise. Yes, oil has to deliver better than 3,500 because food is not at that level. That is how the scheme of things should work in H2. In case you want anything specific, we will certainly provide you the segment-wise also.
Understood. This question on Nepal. I just want to understand, is the oil a domestic crop in Nepal or do these players import it themselves and then re-export it to India?
No, they do not have any domestic crop.
What they do is that they import degummed soya bean oil from Argentina, like the way we all do at Haldia port. From Haldia port, they take it to Birgunj, all the plants are located there. Then they refine and bring it back to India. Mostly the border states are impacted heavily because, you know, it's a very transparent border. The border is also Raxaul border or any border that you take are part of the domestic consumption market. That is why it has impacted a lot.
Understood. Understood. Understood. That's clear. Yeah, yeah, that's all from my side.
Thank you. Next question comes on the line of Dhiraj Mistry with ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Yeah, it's very interesting that you highlighted that there would be back growth for the FMCG part of the portfolio.
If I remember correctly, a couple of years back, you stated that you would be achieving INR 10,000 crore, at least in FY 2027 or so. With all this G2C, G2G business rationalization and everything, do we still stand with INR 10,000 crore in FY 2027 or can it be pushed a bit?
If we look at our volume growth, we should grow at 20% food. First half has been a little low because of the G2G. If you remove that, we are still in the growth phase. Second half onwards looks like much better. Going ahead, we have another 18 months to touch INR 10,000 crore. We are working on it. We are aware of it that we had said, mentioned INR 10,000 crore, but we will be very close to it, for sure. We are on it and we know that we have to deliver.
We are banking on Gohana plant now getting streamlined. Rice has just started in Gohana, both the lines. We have around 500 ton paddy processing daily. Our flour mill is not yet ready. It will be ready by end of November. That has a capacity of around 550 tons a day. That flour will be added to the volume. These two plants, plus we have taken a few more atta plants which are coming up in Orissa and Bihar, which will add to our volume. Overall, I think, with the increase in capacity of the food, we should be able to reach very close to INR 10,000.
Got it. This you are talking about by FY 2027?
FY 2027. Absolutely.
Okay. And it's very heartening to see that you have improved your margin for that food business with all this rationalization.
Would you like to give some guidance for your FMCG business margin going ahead? Or is it safe to assume that the current margin what you have been clocking in there, if foods and FMCG business, it is safe to assume that we can assume that kind of margin going ahead also?
No. If I have to answer you this question very straight, I do not think, see, as Mr. Malik said, the aggression to grow top line will remain in the next couple of years. Therefore, not necessarily that we may be able to deliver what we have delivered in H1, right? Do not assume safely that this will be the margin because in case we want to, you know, accelerate that growth, we may end up spending a little more on distribution and schemes and promotion. I think we are now a bit positive in the food.
I think we will remain a bit positive. That is the only thing which I can surely comment upon.
Got it. Got it. Second, on edible oil. Sorry for very near-term outlook and all, but with a high base of palm oil prices has been coming in the base and everything, can we, what kind of volume value mix can we expect for the oil business in second half?
See, the oil business in second half will be driven more in the soft oil category because, as winter sets in, the soft oil category grows, mainly sunflower oil, soya bean oil, cottonseed oil, rice bran oil, and mustard oil. These are the five oils which are soft oil where the consumption is higher in the winter. Palm will grow because, one, frying industry will go to palm as palm will be the cheapest oil, number one.
Number two, bakery industry obviously takes palm. Hence, palm oil should do well in institution business. In-home consumption, soft oil will do well. Overall, I feel the mix will be more or less same, but soft oil should be a little more.
No, thanks for that. I was asking from volume and value perspective that the first half value growth was somewhere around 26% and volume was more or less flattish kind of a thing. With that, how will those numbers pan out for second half?
Okay. See, on value front, honestly, not much we can do, duty increase or decrease by government or exchange rate. All this happens or commodity prices going up and down. Value we do not generally track so meticulously as much as we do cost per ton. Second is as volume is concerned, H2 volume is normally higher than H1.
We expect H2 volume to be better. Low single digit of 5%-6% should be a good growth that we should get because the country is not consuming even more than 1%. Imports are down by 3%. H2 should be still better.
Okay. Value would be more or less kind of a flattish kind of a thing with the high base of last year?
Yes, yes, yes. Unless anything drastic happens or any supply chain disruptions or government intervenes and increases the duty tomorrow by 10%-15%, obviously prices will go up.
Okay. Got it. And, any outlook on margin for second half, in oil business? Is it safe to assume? Or you would like to highlight something, different?
No, I think, our normal earn rate of 3,500 we should continue on EBITDA. And similarly, the blended gross margins of 11,000 tons. 11,000 rupees a ton.
Got it.
Got it. That is for. Got it. Thanks. Thank you very much.
Thank you. A reminder to all the participants that you may press star and one to ask a question. Next question comes from the line of Raghav Maheshwari with Kamakaya Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Hi, hi. So this is just to understand, thing which you highlighted earlier regarding the Nepal imports of, edible oil. So, like you mentioned, overall 12% of soya imports of India is getting accounted for by Nepal imports. So, as far as the company is concerned, like what percentage of market share decline has AWL Agri Business seen due to this particular thing? If you can quantify this, if it is possible, or arrange.
Okay. See, Nepal, everything comes in pouch, 85%-90% in pouch, and 10% in 15 kg tins.
So they directly compete with the Indian brands in mainly the states of, UP, Bihar, Bengal, Jharkhand. Now, we have over 50% market share in all these states. So what happens is that our two brands, Kings and Fortune, both have to compete with these, cheaper brands. And cheaper means they are 0% duty. So obviously they are much cheaper. Today, if you, on cost to cost, it is around INR 15 per liter cheaper than Indian brands. So obviously the roadside stalls, hotels, javas, all these people have started consuming Nepalese oil. We are, largest shareholders, obviously. We have got a hit. And our soya bean market share has dropped by almost 2.5%-3%. That is why at all India level in refined oil consumer pack, we have lost share of around 50 basis points.
Okay, sir. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen.
That was the last question for today. We have reached. All right. We can take another question that has come up. That is Niharika Karnani with CapGrow Capital . Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the opportunity. Just one question from my end. So in the food and FMCG segment, we spoke about the margin thing. So top line expansion will be there aggressively by spending more on distribution. So wanted to understand when do we see this segment contributing meaningfully towards margin? And overall for the company, what steps are being taken to drive margin expansion?
See, I think we, we, I what we have been saying for quite some time is that this, this segment will remain in EBITDA neutral for some time. Though if you look at our past couple of quarters, we have been actually EBITDA positive on this segment.
But having said that, we will remain aggressive on spending to grow. Therefore, our sense is that not before FY 2028, this should start contributing really meaningful to the bottom line because only by that time, FY 2028 means what I'm saying is practically three years from now because right now we are into FY 2026, then you have a 2027 and then 2028. That is where it will start contributing meaningfully to the bottom line. I think better than oil rather, I would say.
Understood, understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. We have reached the end of question-and-answer session. I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Yeah. From AWL team, we thank you everyone for attending the call, hearing us.
Please do reach out to our investor relation team for anything specific you want to understand on the company and company model. Thank you.
Thank you, everyone, to have joined this call.
Thank you. On behalf of AWL Agri Business and ICICI Securities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.