Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q4 and FY 2026 Earnings Conference Call of Concord Biotech Limited, hosted by Ambit Capital. This conference call may contain forward-looking statements about the company, which are based on beliefs, opinions, and expectations of the company as on the date of this call. These statements are not the guarantees of future performance and involve risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Ankur Vaid, Joint Managing Director and CEO of Concord Biotech Limited.
Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. A very warm welcome to all on our Q4 and FY 2026 earnings conference call. I'm joined by Mr. Raviraj Karia, CFO, and SGA, our investor relations advisors. We've uploaded our results and investor presentation on stock exchanges and the company's website, and I hope everybody had an opportunity to go through the same. Let me start with a brief recap of FY 2026, followed by the way forward and financial performance, post which we'll be opening the floor for Q&A. FY 2026 was a challenging year for Concord, and we have faced some industry headwinds coupled with geopolitical headwinds and supply chain disruptions. Just to highlight further.
In FY 2026, procurement activities by our customers, particularly for the U.S., slowed during the first half of the year, while prospective customers refrained from altering their existing supply chains amid uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff measures and the broader complex geopolitical environment.
Conditions gradually improved in the second half, leading to increased procurement activity and renewed engagement with our new customer pipeline. With greater clarity emerging on the tariff situation, customers are now increasingly focused on de-risking their supply chain and shifting business towards us, supported by strong capabilities, capacities, global approval, and customer references that Concord possesses. During the year, we also faced challenges related to obtaining written confirmation approvals from CDSCO, which restricted our supplies to the European region for nearly three months, representing approximately one-third of the financial year. This did not result in permanent loss of revenue, the impacted supplies were deferred to subsequent periods. It is important to note, however, that this was not a case of pent-up demand where all deferred supplies could be immediately executed upon resumption. The recovery was gradual, with supplies normalizing towards the end of the financial year.
Another challenge was related to our supplies to the Middle East region amid uncertainties arising from the ongoing war and broader geopolitical conditions. A major tender in the region remains in abeyance, which adversely impacted our revenues during the year. Nevertheless, we remain confident of resuming supplies under this tender once the same is open. In addition to the tender business being on hold, other API supplies to the region were also constrained due to prevailing uncertainty. As part of an interconnected global market, these developments had a direct impact on our revenues during the year. We are now witnessing improved visibility and gradual resumption of supplies to the Middle East in the current financial year, particularly as these are chronic therapies where supply disruptions cannot persist for an extended period.
During the second half of the year, customers adopted a differentiated procurement strategy, shifting from bulk purchases to a more staggered quarter-on-quarter procurement approach compared to the previous year. As a result, revenues were distributed more evenly across periods rather than being concentrated within a particular quarter. This should therefore be viewed as a timing spillover into subsequent periods rather than a permanent loss of revenue. Lastly, in Q4, our U.S. Veterans Affairs business was impacted as the related tender had not been finalized during the year and continued to remain on hold, resulting in lower sales during the second half of the year. The factors mentioned above were largely beyond our control and were not related to lower demand, loss of market share, or pricing pressure. While we have encountered similar situations individually in the past, this year multiple challenges coincided within the same period.
Having said that, we believe these issues are temporary in nature rather than structural, and we remain optimistic about a normalized and a stronger performance in FY 2027. Speaking about our resilience and positive developments during FY 2026. During the year, we strengthened our regulatory filings and have successfully completed US FDA, EU GMP, Russian GMP, NAFDAC, and WHO GMP inspections across multiple facilities, which reinforces our global compliance standards and supports uninterrupted international supplies. Our injectable facility successfully commenced operations and completed its first year of manufacturing. With the WHO GMP certification now in place, we are well-positioned to enter the domestic market through our own brand and contract manufacturing opportunities, as well as participate in government supply contracts. This has significantly enhanced the visibility and growth prospects of our injectable business for the current period.
Speaking of our customer acquisition for API sales, CDMO, and second-source opportunities, we have commenced the supply of our APIs to two innovator companies. We have made steady progress with customer acquisitions in nystatin, which was launched last year. We have also commercialized the manufacturing of fusidic acid, which has limited competition, especially from the European region. We have increased the second-source opportunities across multiple products, enabling us to grab a larger share of the business over time. We are in active discussion with CDMO customers, which are in advanced stages as we speak. We have also invested in growth platforms like our entity in cell and gene therapy through investments in Celliimmune Biotech .
We have commenced commercialization of the softgel facility, creating additional avenues for revenue generation, and incorporated and acquired licenses for Stellon Biotech, our U.S. subsidiary, which enables direct marketing, distribution, and commercialization of Concord Biotech's products in the U.S. Considering all these factors together, along with the strong product capabilities, manufacturing capacities, and product pipeline that Concord possesses, we believe the company is well-positioned for a sustained growth trajectory with significant opportunities in the near future. With this, I would like to hand over the call to Mr. Raviraj Karia, our CFO, to take you through the financial and operational highlights for the quarter and financial year ended March 31 2026. Thank you, over to you. Raviraj.
Thank you, Mr. Ankur, and good afternoon, everyone. Let me speak about the operational data points first. The API revenues for the Q4 financial year 2026 stood at INR 264 crores and INR 829 crores for the financial year 2026, with a degrowth of around 27% and 12%, respectively. Our formulation revenue witnessed a degrowth of around 8% and 13% for Q4 of financial year 2025 and financial year 2026, respectively. Our split between API and formulation largely stood at an 80-20 ratio in our long-term stated range. Our split between domestic and export sales stood at 52%-48% for Q4 of financial year 2025 and 53%-47% for financial year 2026. Our export revenues witnessed a degrowth of around 9% for the financial year 2026, and our domestic revenue witnessed a degrowth of around 15% for the financial year 2026.
Speaking of our financial performance, I would like to mention that, as mentioned , financial year 2026 was a challenging period, and our revenue has seen degrowth. Revenue degrowth for quarter four of financial year 2026 stood at 24%. For the full financial year, it stood at 12%. Our profitability front, we have not seen that steep impact. Our reported EBITDA for the financial year 2026 stood at INR 367 crore with an EBITDA margin of around 35%. If we exclude the impact of expenses related to our new formulation facility and expenses pertaining to our U.S. subsidiary, Stellon, our EBITDA would have been in the range of around 40.4% for the fourth quarter and 39% for the financial year 2026. On account of de-operating leverage with reduced sales, our profit after tax was down by 30% for the financial year 2026, standing at INR 260 crore.
Despite the degrowth on the back of culminating challenges witnessed during the year, our balance sheet stays healthy. We are a zero -debt company with cash and cash equivalents of more than around INR 414 crores as of March 31 2026. Our CapEx for the year stood at INR 65 crores
Our cash flow from operations stood at 267 crores with a CFO to EBITDA conversion of around 73%. With the manufacturing capacities across all four units supporting a peak revenue potential of approximately 3,000 crores, along with a strong cash surplus position and limited CapEx requirements, we are well-positioned to capitalize on future growth opportunities and drive sustainable growth. With this, I would like to open the floor for questions and answers. Thank you, everyone.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to withdraw yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use the handset while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. First question is from the line of Ankur Kumar from Alpha Capital. Please go ahead.
Hello, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Sir, as you said in the commentary as well as wrote in the PPT, we expect strong outperformance in FY 2027. Do we have visibility in the first half to start this growth phase, or will it be delayed , and do we expect it in the second half?
We have a very good amount of visibility in the first half, and based on that, we have been pretty confident that in the coming financial year, we should expect growth, which should be better off than our historical growth, which has been there. There is a fair amount of visibility in the first half.
By historical growth, sir, can we expect 18%-20% type growth or more or less?
Yes. As I said, our historical growth has been around 18%, so we expect it to be slightly better off; that is how we are looking at this financial year.
That should start from Q1, and Q2 also?
That's correct.
That's nice to know, sir. Sir, on the margin side, we said it was quite good. In gross margin also improved, and excluding the impact of this formulation as well as the new subsidiary, margins have improved. Are these businesses turning around, or how should we look at our overall EBITDA margins for the next year, sir?
This is a cycle that one goes through. We established the infrastructure last year, which was the injectables, and in this year we have set up Stellon Biotech. Whenever you are establishing newer business units, it takes time to build up and have positive contributions to the top line. That's a cycle that we are going through. That being said, all the necessary steps have been taken. Like we have mentioned in the past, for the new injectable facility, we have taken the validation batches. WHO GMP certification has happened. We have slowly started selling the products from our injectable facility, and also, as we speak, certain customer audits have also been lined up. We've also gone through a couple of those. We are going through that process.
It's a little difficult for me to say how the contribution is going to be from this injectable unit, but all the right steps have been taken in that direction. With respect to Stellon, we are expecting the supplies to happen in the first half of the year as well. Already orders are in place from our U.S. entity. Things are moving in the positive direction, but from a break-even perspective, it's a little too early for me to say. That being said, all the expenses that have been there for these two entities have been fully booked in the last financial year. Anything that would, going forward, would be a positive impact only on the EBITDA.
Got it, sir. Sir, the last question would be on the gross margin side. We have seen expansion both in the full year as well as in Q4. How should we look at gross margin for the coming year?
See, I would say gross margins are to be kind of in a similar range because one sees that there has been some pressure on the supplies of the goods. Of course, I don't expect that to be there for the full year, and we are procuring a lot of raw materials as well. There is some impact on some of the products and some of the raw materials. I don't expect it to be significantly different, but my sense would be that on a full -year basis, it should be pretty much in line with what our historical gross margins have been.
Sure, sir. Thank you and all the best.
Thanks.
Thank you. Before we move to the next question, a reminder to the participants: to ask a question, you may press star and one. Next question is from the line of Dhaval Khunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I wanted to know what our sales exposure to the Middle East region was in the past two years, let's say in FY 2026 and FY 2025, and some details around the tender that you mentioned. What was the potential size of the tender? Which country was it? That's question number one. Question number two is on the injectable plant. What was the loss due to the injectable facility during the quarter and the year, and how is the progress in terms of filing from the facility for different markets? How many markets have we started to file, and what regulatory approval or plant visit has been done to date?
Sure. The tender impact, we had already captured that in quarter three, and we had informed that the tender was to the tune of close to around INR 25 crore. While we have exposures in the API, I think the challenge for these markets was to procure more towards the formulation than towards the API, because of various reasons , whether it was the currency for them—currency allocations usually are a challenge in the Middle East countries —or because for the API, they can still hold on to things as it has a shelf life, but for formulations, they have to be consumed. That was a challenge then. Major was the tender impact, which was INR 25 crores. The API impact was there again, in and around similar to what the tender value was. It was not fully impacted. I would say it was partially impacted.
Going forward, as I said , the tender clarity is not there yet, but there are supplies on the APIs that have slowly started to build up. Again, they can be in a position to kind of hold and make the formulations when required. That is why we are seeing gradual progress in the Middle East. Hopefully once the situation improves, it will also have a positive impact from a formulation standpoint, as we are seeing it from an API standpoint. With respect to the injectables, while I let Raviraj share his information on the profitability and loss from a filing perspective, currently the documentation process is going on. Our target markets are Southeast Asia and the African markets to begin with.
The documentation and the submissions are going to be initially targeted towards the emerging markets, which are the Southeast Asia and the Africa markets. I'll let Raviraj answer on the profitability numbers.
Yeah. For injectable plants, we have previously also mentioned that the quarter-on-quarter expenses are around INR 10 crore, while the full -year number would be around INR 38 crore-INR 39 crore.
Okay. Just a small bit again on the Middle East. What's the total current exposure to the region, be it direct or indirect, ballpark?
I would say it would be close around INR 50.
INR 50 crores at the company level?
At company level.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Aniket Singh from Kotak Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Can you give a broad breakup of what has been the volume and pricing growth for us for FY 2026 for our API business?
As I said , there has been no price growth for us. All the volumes have been primarily on the basis of volume.
You would say that volumes declined on a full -year basis in FY 2026?
That's correct.
Got it, sir. In terms of pricing, do you see heightened pricing pressure maybe compared to one or two years back? What's your outlook on the pricing for the next year?
No. As I said , some of the newer products that we've been launching, like nystatin, fusidic acid, and others, you do not see a pricing pressure on because we are entering them as a second source, and we have been gaining more market share as we speak. There it is all about volume growth, and it will not be right to say that there is any pricing impact that we are expecting because we are entering with an aggressive price there as a second source. When it comes to slightly mature products, I would say not all markets, but there is always a little bit of price that, to certain customers, could be there, which gets compensated by the newer regions that one would enter into. Overall, I would say there is not a pricing pressure that one gets a concern about.
As years progress, that's a part and parcel of the game. That's where our R&D efforts kick in, where we continuously work on molecules where we do foresee any such impact in years to come. To answer, in short, we do not see any major impacts, other than what is a regular course of business kind of a thing.
Got it, sir. Secondly, can you give details on the facility utilization across our facilities?
Yes. The capacity utilization for unit one was 77%, unit two was 30%, and unit three is around 53%.
53%?
53%.
Got it, sir. Thank you. That's it from my side.
Thank you. Participants, to join the question queue, you may press star and one. Next question is from the line of Naman Bagrecha from IIFL Securities Limited.
Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, can you highlight this in terms of U.S. veterans?
Naman, your voice is very low. Request you to speak a little louder.
Is this better?
Yes. Please go ahead.
Yes. My question is on the U.S. veterans' tender orders. How long has this been an issue, and what is the revenue exposure towards this thing for us?
As I mentioned earlier, this was a challenge that we faced in quarter three, and the exposure to that was to the tune of around INR 25 crore.
Any guidance in terms of when do you see this picking up, probably in the next six months or 12 months, or will it be like an infinite period? Any color on that.
It all depends upon how the war situation improves. I think nobody has that clarity, not even us. What we are seeing is that while the formulation has got impacted, there has been some improvement coming through the API. As I mentioned earlier , while formulation has a shelf life , the customers require allocation of funds to be supplied from a government tender standpoint, which is a challenge. That's why some of these companies are also looking at routes to kind of hold the API so that at the right time they can manufacture the batches whenever that allocation happens and supply them. We are seeing a little bit of shift from the formulations to the API. While that's not 100% that's happened, a complete shift, but slowly and steadily, we are seeing that progression towards holding more of the API than the formulations.
As I mentioned in my remarks , being chronic therapies beyond a certain timeline, it's difficult for even countries to hold on to supply. Probably they are using an alternate strategy to kind of keep inventory so that at the right time, they're able to supply this thing. That's how we're seeing the market situation developing.
I just want to clarify on this. This INR 25 crore impact is API impact, right? Or is it the formulations' impact?
Formulations impact.
Formulations impact. Okay. Generally, this happens in, let's say, this tender is rolled out in the December-November period, and supplies happen in quarter four .
Sorry to interrupt. Naman, your voice is not clear. Request you to please use your handset. You are not audible.
This INR 25 crore impact that you highlighted on the formulations side—I just wanted more color in terms of how and when this tender is being floated. Is it like the November, December period where the tender gets floated and supplies happen in quarter four entirely, or is it more staggered ?
No. Typically, supplies to these markets would happen through the governments only. Whenever there is a need, whenever there is less inventory and the government decides to place tenders, that's how. It completely depends on utilization. There is no fixed time period on it; it will happen within a particular quarter or a particular month. In the last year and the year before last, we had seen supplies in quarter three. This year, if you see, the entire situation changed not only from a formulation standpoint but also, as I said, through the API, because the API also got impacted because of the currency allocations and the funds allocated to the government for such supplies. To answer, there is no particular time period within which the tender gets floated. It is based on the consumption requirements.
Okay. Second question for Raviraj sir. There is this INR 79.3 crore carried on the balance sheet. Could you highlight what it is for? I presume that [inaudible] INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore per annum.
Naman, your voice is not clear.
Hello.
Your voice is breaking.
Hello. Can you hear me now?
Yes.
Yes. Sir, I was asking about the CWIP part, INR 79.3 crore is on the balance sheet. I presume that our CapEx was supposed to be only to the tune of INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore per annum, given the last part of our CapEx cycle is done. Just wanted clarification on this CWIP number.
Let me answer that. As I mentioned earlier , we have also set up the softgel facility this year. CapEx has also gone towards that in addition to the maintenance CapEx. In addition, we have also, as I mentioned, started work with one of the innovative companies. There were some additional modifications that were required for us to initiate that project with the innovative company because it was a larger volume project, so it required a slightly larger modification to the plant. Those were some of the changes based on which the CapEx was slightly higher than the regular maintenance CapEx of INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore.
What would be the guidance for FY 2027 maybe?
Sorry.
What would be the CapEx guidance for FY 2027 maybe?
As I said, general CapEx is around the tune of INR 20 crores -INR 30 crores. As of now, there are no particular requirements per se. In the future, if there are any newer projects that do require it, I think we have sufficient cash on hand and a zero debt status. To optimally utilize that growth, I do not see that as a challenge.
Okay. One more question on the same. Sir, we have highlighted that there will be savings from renewable energy with our investment in the solar plant. Has that saving started, or what would be the potential saving going ahead?
Yes. Those savings have started, and we expect around a 1% - 1.5% positive impact on the EBITDA.
Considering the newer, let's say, power and fuel costs, or this is the older, let's say, cost.
Yeah. If you consider this situation to be there for a full year, then it might be a little less, but I'm assuming that it should be in that range of 1%-1 .5%.
Okay, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, to ask a question, you may press star one. Next question is from the line of Sumit Gupta from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead.
Hi. Good afternoon, everyone. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah. Sir, first on the CapEx part, like you highlighted , general CapEx will be INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore. Do you expect any growth CapEx also, or should we go ahead with this INR 20 crore-INR 30 crore only for the next two years?
Difficult to say for the two years. Yeah, for this year I do not see any further additions, at least in the first half of the year. As I mentioned to Naman earlier , if in the second half there does come any requirement because of any newer projects coming in that require additional CapEx, it should be okay with us, as there is no —To optimally utilize it for growth. Just to add, and maybe I missed one point there, we are also setting up an additional facility of a smaller size for the topical range. That could be something that one would see in this financial year.
Understood, sir. Sir, second question from the API side. What will the contribution be from the base portfolio and the new launches? Can you highlight the split between the API segments?
Much of the growth that we are going to be seeing in this year would also be coming from the anti-infective and the oncology segment, is how we see it. In terms of the value-wise growth, there will be value growth across all the segments. I think there would be faster growth than what we see in the anti-infectives and the oncology segment.
What kind of growth and majorly will it be coming from new launches, and how is the base portfolio over the next two to three years?
There is no base for us because every year we've been launching one or two products; it is difficult to quantify what is the base for us. As I said, the growth that we are seeing would be from, say, products like nystatin, which is there. We are just initiating supplies also of fusidic acid. While the quantum of fusidic acid supplies may not be as big as was the case for nystatin last year, where only smaller quantities were supplied and larger quantities we are seeing this year. That's how we see the newer products. Our already commercialized products within that, products in the Onco segment and in the anti-infective segments, are going to see a relatively higher growth than the immunosuppressant growth.
Understood. sir, with respect to CDMO, how much was the contribution from this segment in Q4 and FY?
CDMO, we do not classify contract manufacturing as a CDMO. Just to be clear there. Contract manufacturing of Concord's IP products is still considered under our own business only and not under CDMO. We classify CDMO only where the IP belongs to the third parties, like the innovators. This year, I would say that we will be in the single digits, maybe between 1%-4%. We are expecting a couple of CDMO opportunities to click. At least for one, we are right now at advanced stages of discussion. If that happens, those numbers could change to a certain extent.
Should we consider this into formulations, or can you split that into API formulations?
API. It would be primarily in API.
API. Okay. In that sense, you expect the mix to be almost at 80-20 going forward also?
I mean, yeah.
API to formulations.
Yeah. I mean, overall API to formulations, as you saw last year and the year before, we were in and around that 80-20. ±2%-3% here and there is what we expect also this year.
Okay. Just one final question. In that sense, let's say your mix improves. Can we expect improvement in gross margin, or should it sustain at these levels?
No. The gross margins I would say would be in and around the similar, this thing. As I mentioned , we would be in and around the 80%-20% mark.
Okay. Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Gagan Thareja from Groww Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. I hope I'm audible.
Yes.
Yeah. Sir, you have in the past quarters indicated that the injectables and your U.S. business, the CDMO business put together, have caused an INR 75 crore sort of additional OpEx, which was not absorbed. I think you also, in your remarks at the start of the call, indicated that adjusted for this, margins would have been north of 40%. Given that now you are confident of growth coming back, is it reasonable to assume that there will be operating leverage on these two facilities, which will lead to operating margin improvements?
That's correct. As I mentioned earlier , the full cost was factored into last year. There would be operating leverage kicking in. As I also mentioned , typically it does take a little bit longer for it to kind of have a full breakeven because the supplies to Stellon are going to happen in the first half of the year. Also, injectables are slowly and steadily picking up pace. Full breakeven, I would say, will take time. I would say probably in the next financial year is what I would look at. The operating leverage will start kicking in from this year, and it should have a positive impact compared to what we saw last year.
Between the savings on energy costs from your renewable energy and also reduced losses in these two operations, the energy saving itself you indicated could be 100-150 basis points of margin.
Yes.
Plus further benefit from stanching or reducing the losses in these two new ventures. Would that mean that scope for operating margins to improve could be 200 basis points or more?
Possibly yes, because as I said, 1%-1.5% should be from the power and around 0.5, 50 basis points from the rest of the business. One can look at that, yes.
What were your losses between these two businesses for FY 2026? To what degree do you think those losses can be reduced in FY 2027?
Raviraj had already mentioned earlier the expenses that were there for both the two businesses.
INR 38 crore and INR 10 crore
INR 38 crore and INR 10 crore. How much of that will get compensated, will get taken care of for the full year? It's a little early for me to say.
Okay. Just one clarification. Did the CFO also mention that the current capacity is adequate to take the company's turnover to INR 3,000 crore?
That's correct.
In which case, from here on, any CapEx is essentially for debottlenecking and maintenance.
That's correct. Until, unless it is for a newer project with the customer that may require growth to happen.
Okay. From a working capital standpoint, do you see things remaining stable or improving on it?
It should remain stable because much of it is the need of the industry, which is in fermentation. I expect it to be in line with what you see.
Okay. I think one more broad-based question. I think you have always alluded to your historical growth rates of high teens and indicated that you could possibly be in a position to maintain or even perform a number beyond that. Is it possible to elaborate on what pedestals that aspiration is sort of predicated on and what additional revenue streams and margin levers will bring about that? I mean, to whatever degree it's possible for you to share.
Maybe it'll be a little difficult to cover much of that in a shorter span on the call. I think from a capacity standpoint, we have the necessary capacities in place. Also, the growth levers, because we have recently commissioned, a couple of years back, unit three. Unit two also, we have added capacities both from oral solids as well as from the softgel. The new injectables facility, which is not currently contributing, has also commenced operations. Other growth levers like the CDMO, and Stellon for the U.S. business have been established. There are multiple growth levers that are there, and the capacities and capabilities are also there to address these needs. Based on that is where we get the confidence to kind of have the capability to have INR 3,000 crore from the assets that we have created.
There is an asset block that can meet those sales, and there are products, both in the API and the formulation, as well as CDMO opportunities there to kind of meet that long-term growth that we look at.
By when do you see you being able to optimally utilize your current capacities?
Unit 1 is already at optimal capacity. Unit three is slowly and steadily also progressing. We are at close to around 50% utilization. Unit four, as I mentioned , should see breakeven coming in by next year. Softgel is also being added. We are on the right path to kind of work towards optimal utilization.
Let me put it this way. When do you see the next tranche of large capacity creation requirement coming up? Three years out, two years out, or four, five years out?
I don't see any larger CapEx happening this year until and unless there is any requirement because.
No, not this year. My question is, given the kind of run rates of revenue increase that you can foreseeably see, do you believe that three years out, you'll require your next tranche of substantial CapEx, or do you think that five years out , you'll require a substantial capacity addition taking place? Because you indicated that there's room to scale up your turnover.
Anything above INR 50 crores-INR 100 crores, probably in two to three years, could be a good estimation. Beyond INR 100 crores, I think it will probably be four to five years down the line.
Okay. Right. Thanks.
INR 100 crore is not a significant CapEx addition to the overall asset block that we would have. Yeah.
Yeah.
I don't see that as a material change over the next four to five years.
Right. Thank you, sir. I'll get back in the queue. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Agraj Shah from Tata AIA Life Insurance. Please go ahead.
Thanks for taking my question, sir. I would like to understand that given that most of the challenges that we faced this year are on the export side, still our exports actually did relatively better than the domestic ones. Exports have declined only 9%. Versus domestics declining 15%. Can you just explain that? Is it indirect sales to our customers, or what exactly is leading to this?
Yeah. For the U.S. markets, most of our sales are typically indirect because many of the Indian manufacturers are supplying to the U.S. market. As I mentioned, in an interconnected world, even supplies to India go to the U.S. As a matter of fact, the formulations that I mentioned were supplied to the domestic market, and our counterparts in India then supplied them to India. The Middle East supplies were actually domestic; they got captured in the domestic formulations rather than in exports. That's why in the overall equation, the domestic gets impacted more than the export.
Okay. Just on this formulation side, given that the base is relatively low, we are still seeing a decline. Any thoughts on that, or is it just that these indirect sales are impacting our sales, we would have been on a growth trajectory.
So-
Just on for API, but the formulation business was relatively young with newer capacity.
All our businesses, as I say, because we have domestic formulations, contract manufacturing in India for other companies, U.S. business, and international business. Apart from the international business, which got impacted because of certain geopolitical reasons, all the other regions, domestic as well as U.S. businesses, have actually grown. The impact was primarily on account of the formulations and on account of these geopolitical issues that we spoke about earlier during the call.
Okay. Just on the working capital side, actually, the inventory days have gone up to 480 days versus 286 days last year. Even in an absolute number, it was INR 240 crores last year. It has gone to INR 326 crore. Are these finished goods inventories, or let's say there was some shipment deferment, which actually led to the inventory building?
It's a mix of two things. One is that, as mentioned during the call earlier, certain of our customers made it a more staggered procurement approach than the bulk approach. There was inventory with us, which we were expecting to kind of ship in quarter four, which has now been staggered over subsequent quarters. There are some sales happening in quarter one, quarter two, and so forth. That inventory is sitting in our books as well. Some delays occurred because customers were delayed because of all that was happening in the last couple of weeks of March. There is some impact of that, and the other is, of course, that when we are manufacturing, the utilization numbers have gone slightly higher. In fermentation, as I mentioned, the time cycles are larger, which is the need of the industry.
Some contribution is also from that. We expect this to slightly moderate as well in the coming quarters as staggered supplies to these customers will start happening.
Got it. Just a clarification on your initial comments, at least to the first answer that you gave on the growth starting to be, let's say, more close to +20% in the first half. Is it that even in the second half, if you look at the first half for this year, we had degrown by 14%? In the full year, also, we had degrown by 12%. Would it be that, let's say, the growth will be in the first half as well as the full year next year broadly along a similar rate, or would it be more first -half heavy?
What I mentioned earlier was that for the full year, we expect our growth to be in line with our history, slightly better than our history. The first half, we have good visibility towards achieving the full year that we spoke about.
Got it. Thanks. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Stuti Bagadia from Choice Institutional Equities. Please go ahead.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes.
Yes.
I am sorry if I missed this. I just wanted to know what is the EBITDA margin guidance for FY 2027?
We have not given any guidance on the EBITDA. What we have mentioned is that there are certain positive impacts that are there. One is the power cost, where we expect a 1%-1.5% positive impact. Also , for certain of our businesses, like Stellon Biotech as well as the injectables, the expenses have been fully built up in the last year. We expect some operating leverage for that to kind of kick in. There is no specific guidance that we have given for the next year.
Oh, okay. My second question is on the inventory days. Like you mentioned, they have increased significantly. Do we expect normalization in FY 2027?
Yeah. It should be in the normal course of business, which should be there. Slight increase, which was seen, has been on account of what we just spoke about earlier. Other than that, it has been pretty much in line with what our historical inventory days have been. That slight increase was on factors that we spoke about, which, as I mentioned, should get addressed in the first half of the year.
Okay. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Dhaval Khunt from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thanks for the follow-up. I wanted to know the energy exposure. What's the very broad -level exposure towards LPG versus non-LPG? If the situation were to normalize, will that benefit also be meaningful for us? That's one. Second, at the IPO, we had very large top -five molecules. How is the contribution of those top five products for us right now?
On the LPG, not sure. I can reconnect with you separately. We won't have the comparator there. Overall, if you see around 20% of the cost, in and around 20% is power and fuel. Of which I would say around 50% of that or close to around 10% is LPG based. LPG- or furnace oil -based, because at multiple plants we have either LPG or furnace oil. There is definitely an impact on the higher side, which is there. That is eating away, of course, into the benefits that we see from the power and fuel, and that's why we've given a range of around 1%-1.5%. While we are seeing a positive side to the power, the fuel is something that is on the higher side.
I think if that improves, then we should get closer to the 1.5% EBITDA mark, which is what we see. From the top five molecules, I would say that, yes, of course, last year would not be the right year to look into what the top five molecules have contributed. Going forward, as I mentioned, we are seeing more growth coming in from the oncology and the anti-infective segments.
Okay. Lastly, is the supply chain stable? Like, there's no availability challenge in terms of whatever fuel requirement, be it LPG or furnace oil -based?
In the first few weeks, of course, it was challenging. As you would know , many of the places the government had restricted the use of fuel to the industry. There were higher charges to be paid for the higher usage of fuel. Of course, in fermentation, you cannot stop the industry. We were forced to go with the higher utilization at a higher price. I think that shortage is now no longer there. It's only with respect to the price, which is there. The initial few weeks in April, there was an industry challenge.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from the line of Sajal Kapoor from Antifragile Thinking. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you. Hi, team. I have three questions. First is, if FY 2026 was primarily a timing issue, which you have explained, right? Rather than a demand issue. Where should investors expect to see the release of that timing effect first? Will it be inventory or receivables or operating cash flow or revenue growth?
As I mentioned that inventory, yes, because we spoke earlier during the call that the slightly higher elevated inventory levels should get used during the first half of the year. What I've mentioned earlier, that there is a fair amount of visibility on the first half of the year as well, is how I would look at what kind of translates into the revenue that will get positively looked at.
No, that's helpful, Ankur. You mentioned that some of the tenders that couldn't land in FY 2026 are still work in progress, hopefully. In that context, what percentage of current inventory is already linked to identified customer demand or customer forecast or commercial shipments that will start getting released from Q1 of this fiscal?
That impact is only in the Middle East. All the other markets, I think, as I said, have new customer acquisitions that are there or new projects that we are looking at, the material that we have in hand is mostly being targeted and supplied towards those. When it comes to the Middle East, we are not manufacturing formulations and saying so on the formulation purchase. The inventory that we have with respect to formulation, there the shelf life starts kicking in. The inventory that we have is primarily, I would say, more towards the API, and there it has been more about the staggered approach that is there. For the Middle East, I think supplies will be through the API to the extent it is possible to address those opportunities, but when it comes to formulations, neither are we holding the inventory.
Whenever there is visibility and we have fixed orders coming from there, only then will those productions happen. That's how we are looking at the inventory positioning.
That's helpful. Based on what you just said, if I understood correctly, there is absolutely very low probability of us taking any sort of write-off because of any inventory losses, et cetera.
That's correct. From a formulation standpoint, yes.
Okay. Compared with FY 2024, 2025, kind of a time period, do you expect Concord's steady -state working capital intensity to be structurally higher, structurally lower, or kind of broadly remain unchanged over the next three years? The reason I'm saying three years is because that factors in some of the recently commissioned capacities to be kind of optimally operational.
I would expect to be in line with our historical numbers because the majority of the businesses is API and there the working capital cycles are usually higher because of the nature of the business. I would expect to be relatively in line with our historical numbers.
Sure. That's helpful. Ankur, I must appreciate that the quality of communication on the earnings calls has been top-notch throughout. Yes, we have seen a bit of a difficult period in FY 2026, but nevertheless, we have just communicated what was actually correct, rather than just making it up, and very helpful communication. Thank you.
Happy to hear that. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, due to time constraints, this was the last question for the day. I now hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
Thank you , everyone, for joining on our Q4 and FY 2026 earnings call. We hope we've been able to address all your queries. For any further information, please get in touch with us or SGA, our investor relation advisors. Thank you once again. Have a good evening.
Thank you, everyone.
Thank you. On behalf of Ambit Capital, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us.