Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q4 fiscal year 2021-2022 results investor conference call of Dabur India Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded.
Management of Dabur India Limited, I welcome you to this conference call pertaining to results for the quarter and full year ended 31 March 2022. Present here with me are Mr. Mohit Malhotra, Chief Executive Officer, Dabur India Limited, Ankush Jain, Chief Financial Officer, Ashok Jain, EVP (Finance) & Company Secretary. We will start with an overview of the company's performance by Mr. Mohit Malhotra, followed by a Q&A session. Over to you, Mohit.
Thank you, Gagan ma'am. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for joining us today. I hope you and your loved ones are staying safe and healthy. It gives me great pleasure to share that during the financial year 2021-2022, our consolidated revenue from operations crossed a milestone of INR 10,000 crores for the first time to touch INR 10,889 crores, growing at around 14%. Consolidated EBITDA before exceptional items grew at 7.7%, primarily impacted due to increase in tax rate in the Indian business. Some of the key drivers of this industry-leading growth have been food and beverage vertical, which registered a 48% growth during the year. Innovation continued to be the cornerstone of our strategy, and the new launches contributed around 5% of our revenue.
Our continued focus and investments behind our power brands resulted in market share gains and healthy double-digit growth on the same. This year we gained market shares in 99% of our portfolio. Digital continued to gain prominence, and now almost a quarter of our spends are invested in digital and social media, helping us connect with the millennials and Gen Z better. E-commerce was an outperformer during the year and covered almost 90,000 villages. Operational efficiency helped us improve productivity. Our greenfield plant at Indore has become operational since December 2021. The new plant will help augment capacities. This year saw significant inflation to the tune of 12.5%. Calibrated price increases across the portfolio and relentless pursuit of cost-saving initiatives across the organization helped reduce the impact of inflation on the portfolio.
Coming to the quarter, the operating environment was quite challenging. Inflation continues to be unabated and is reflected in WPI at 14.6% and CPI at seventeen-month high at 6.95% in March 2022. There has been a softening in demand and consolidated revenue from operations posted a growth of 7.7%, driven by 8.5% growth in the India business. On account of high inflation during the quarter, gross margin contracted by 130 basis points. As a result, consolidated operating profit increased by 2.5%. PBT before exceptional items saw a growth of 5.1%. PAT before exceptional items grew by 0.4%. Impairment of goodwill of Hobi Kozmetik to a tune of INR 85 crore has been reported as an exceptional item on account of steep currency devaluation of Turkish lira.
In terms of categories, food and beverage business posted a stellar growth of 34%. We have outperformed the industry significantly, and our market share in juices and nectars category has seen an increase of 610 basis points during the quarter. This is further bolstered by strong traction of our drinks and milkshakes portfolio. The food business also performed well, with portfolio recording a 2% growth on a high base of 33%, leading to a two-year CAGR of 16.2%. For the year, HPC posted a 12.7% growth. Toothpaste portfolio reported 11.3% growth during the year, and our market share in toothpaste segment increased by 20 basis points. Hair oils posted a 17.1% growth during the year. Our market shares in overall hair oils improved by 70 basis points.
Even in the subsegments of the perfumed hair oil and coconut oil, we have seen a strong market share gain driven by marketing investments and distribution expansion. Shampoos recorded a 22% growth in the year. Our market share in shampoos increased by 40 basis points. Home care reported a 21% growth driven by double-digit growth across Odonil, Odomos, Sanifresh franchises. Odonil recorded an increase in market share across all subsegments of air freshener category, and Odomos increased market share by 220 basis points. Skin care portfolio witnessed a decline of 10.6% during the quarter on a high base of around 40%, leading to 11% two-year CAGR. Healthcare portfolio reported a 7.4% growth during the quarter, despite a high base of 23%. Health supplement posted a 10% growth during the quarter.
Dabur Chyawanprash market shares increased by 250 basis points, and honey market shares increased by 300 basis points. Our honey OTC portfolio on the back of strong growth in our power brands, Dabur Honey has reported a 17% growth in quarter four. Among channels, e-commerce performed well with a strong growth and account for 6%-7% of our revenue. Institutional business also exhibited a good turnaround post-COVID. International business recorded a constant currency growth of 10.7%. Our Sub-Saharan business saw 25% growth. Egypt grew by 12%, and Namaste business clocked a robust double-digit growth. Turkey business was impacted by steep currency devaluation, but saw 47% growth in constant currency terms. Overall, our business continues to be on a strong trajectory, which is visible in our full year results and the market share gains across 99% of the portfolio.
Pressure on the cost side due to steep inflation triggered by global environment remains a cause of concern. Also, inflation is leading to pressure on consumers' wallet, which is seen in softening of demand in recent quarter. That said, strong summer season, good harvest and prediction of a normal monsoon augurs well for financial year 2023. We will continue to focus on strengthening our power brands, distribution expansion, innovation, cost optimization and efficiency enhancement, which will hold.
Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question-and-answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question is from the line of Abneesh Roy from Edelweiss Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks. My first question is on the toothpaste growth of 2% and market share improvement by 20 bps. Would you be disappointed by this? I understand the two-year CAGR, but when we see the three-year CAGR, and given share, 20 bps is an improvement, but are you happy with that? Is a big-ticket innovation now needed here?
Right. Abneesh, I don't think there's a cause for worry. This is only one quarter. If you look at the syndicated data, syndicated data shows a decline in the oral care category by around 5%. Looking at the category decline of 5%, we registered a growth of around 2.5%, and 2.5% growth is not bad, and we inched up around 20 basis points market share. Not just Dabur Red. Dabur Red actually grew at around 5.6%. This growth is coming on a base of around 45% increase last year. I think it's more of a base effect that you're seeing a little depressed kind of sales in oral care. Overall, oral care portfolio also grew by around 40% last year this time.
We will work on a base effect and looking at that growth. Two-year CAGRs have been very robust for our oral care category. If you look at full year performance also, so full year also we are growing by around 16% growth rate. There's no cause of worry. I think the herbal category is already around 30% of the total market, and this is trending at little higher as compared to the other part of the category. What's happened is, in terms of inflation, the price increases have been more in the non-herbal and less in the herbal category. Therefore, herbal category is a little bit Patanjali, Dabur, Vicco. A lot of herbal players have actually cut back on their expenditures.
Because of a low share of voice, that growth of the herbal category is looking muted. As it is, I think the overall category is kind of flattening. Our plans remain intact. Our Dabur Red is continuing to gain market share across all markets. We already are number one brand in Tamil Nadu, in Andhra Pradesh and in Orissa. We are the undisputed leaders, number one there. Our herbal toothpaste launch that we, guys, did in South India is trending pretty well. We just very recently launched a charcoal toothpaste in e-commerce, which is also doing reasonably well. I think on back of all these initiatives, we will continue to trend on the strategy that we had already. I don't see any cause of concern here.
This quarter, everyone has grown at, in the range of 0%-5%. When I see the toothpaste market dip of 5%, I wanted to understand that because toothpaste may not have seen too much of a grammage cut. In this kind of a very basic consumption, 5% dip in toothpaste market on year-over-year basis, what is your sense? Is it a data issue of Nielsen? Is there a shift back towards tooth powder? Or, I don't understand, how can consumers cut down 5% on toothpaste? What is your understanding here?
I think it's more of a downtrading which may be happening, I think, in the market. That is what we see, because rural business is also quite under pressure. Because of that pressure, I think downtrading is happening. That's why you see a volume dip actually happening in the toothpaste category and a little bit cutback on the consumer promotions due to inflation, et cetera. That could be the reason why the volumes are declining. I think overall in long around 2% basis points, and the hair oil category.
Those are a bit more discretionary, I'll say. See, shampoo if you don't apply, you can do soap, you don't apply. Toothpaste I can't understand.
I think it's more about downtrading and maybe cut back on the consumer promotions. That's what I think is the reason, yeah. You know, as far as Dabur is concerned, we are not overtly worried. Our market shares are in the range of around 14.5%, and we are into gaining market share. I think Colgate should be more worried on this issue. The consumer could be deferring purchases, but this is a necessity item. I think I don't really know what could be the reason.
Sure. My second and last question is on quick commerce. We are seeing differences in what you are doing versus the general e-commerce delivery. Is there any specific either on the SKU front or in terms of any other marketing or pricing strategy? Anything different you are doing here?
Not really, Abneesh . I don't think this really impacts us. I think more it's gonna impact the grocery. For us, it's not much. Actually, there's been quite a transition which is actually happening from regular commerce to quick commerce. What's happened is inventory corrections are happening at most of the verticals of e-commerce. That's what we guys are seeing, and therefore because of inventory correction, the growths have actually become muted in e-commerce for some time. I think that Amazon has actually changed their vendor from Cloudtail to somebody else. Because of that, there's inventory thinning which is actually happening across the board due to quick commerce. That's pretty much that we are seeing, and there's no change in the strategy per se from our end.
Okay, thanks. That's all from my side. Thanks.
Thanks, Abneesh. Sure.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vishal Gutka from PhillipCapital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, team. First one is around gross margins. Now, apart from the RM pressure, what we believe that the salience of high margin healthcare portfolio is likely to go down as COVID-led tailwind tapers down? Just wanted to hear your views on gross margin going forward. Second question is on the juices segment.
Clearly get the first part of the question. I think it was on gross margin. Gross margin going forward.
Yeah.
You'll see we've got a-
Yes.
Gross margin compression of around 130 basis points, which is not so high. The gross margin compression is also coming in from more of our haircare category, where it's petroleum-linked purchases which has really gone through the roof. Vegetable oils have also shot up. Because of raw material and packaging material price increases, which is cost increases which actually happened in hair oil business, we've seen this kind of a contraction happening. For our food business and healthcare business, they have kind of, with the price increase, we've been able to offset the cost inflation. Only in the hair oil business is where we've not been able to offset due to competitive pressures and because we want to take market share gains. That said, going forward, we are not seeing inflation abating.
We've seen again on top of 6%-7% inflation of last year. There could be a price increase that we will have to take to avoid gross margin shrinkage. That said, I cannot really tell you with confidence that there will be no gross margin compression going forward. At least for two quarters, I think we'll have to watch very cautiously and see if we can take any price increases or cut back on the cost because inflationary environment is just going on. As we speak, the oil is already at $110. You know, it's a wait and watch. Second half-
Incremental pressure from that side, or are you confident that you will do very well in healthcare portfolio as well going forward?
No, see, last year, healthcare portfolio came on a very high base. Like in Chyawanprash, we grew by around 60, 70%, almost 100% in Chyawanprash. In honey, we grew at around 50%. This year, because of diversified portfolio, our food portfolio has come in quite. For the full year, foods has registered a growth of around 50% for us. Therefore, I think that's a benefit that Dabur has. We've got a very diversified portfolio. One goes down and the other comes in handy. Last year we grew HPC at around 33% and this year we've got foods come in. I think there's no problem. As healthcare portfolio goes down and stabilizes due to post-COVID, other parts of the portfolio will kick in, which is HPC and foods.
That's exactly what you've seen happen in this quarter for us. I don't think there is much of a problem. We have talked about 610 basis points that we've gained. We've gained it in juices and nectars. In juices and nectars, we operate along with our competitors, which is Tropicana and B Natural, and we're having a share of more than around 64%, so we've gained from our competitors here. And plus we've entered the drinks category. In drinks category we've already done around INR 100 crore of business in the drinks category. The market share gain essentially comes from these two players.
Okay, fine. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Percy Panthaki from IIFL. Please go ahead.
Q4 2019, because Q4 2020 was itself a COVID affected quarter with overall sales decline of 12%, that's a very low base for me to compare. If I look at versus Q4 2019, the CAGR growth for your overall business is about 5%. For your health supplements and the OTC business is also in the region of 5% only. With so much of a COVID tailwind, with Chyawanprash penetration going from 3% to 8%, et cetera, et cetera, from a pre-COVID level to a today level, the growth in this category is only 5%. Is that something that you're happy with?
There was a lot of uptick which actually happened in the category, a lot of euphoria, and that euphoria is gradually, slowly kind of going down. I think to extend the penetration of this category, we've done a lot of initiatives on our own. Which is why Chyawanprash extended into tablets, Chyawanprash available in a powder form. We're making an entry into MFT. Honey's got multiple variants which have actually come in, and honey penetrations have also gone up. We are consistently increasing our market shares. We've gained 250 basis points in Chyawanprash and 300 basis points in honey. Apart from the category penetration and consumption increasing initiatives, we are also taking initiatives to take up the market shares here and everywhere we've actually taken up the market shares.
When you're sitting in a market share level of around 50%+, then it becomes a little arduous for you to further take up market shares or get reflected in the growth. That's why very happy with the kind of growth that one is actually seeing. That said, the penetration is going up to your point, and more and more players are coming in. As and when competitive intensity goes up, share of voice goes up, and we will be the beneficiaries of that kind of a tailwind coming in. Now, if you see for most of the health supplements, they are more seasonal for us. It actually trends up in winters and actually trends low a little bit in summer. Summer is actually a low season.
When there was COVID, there was a tailwind happening in summer irrespective of the season. Season agnostic people used to buy. Now that COVID is behind us, so people are actually now not buying.
Understood, Mohit.
Just to add.
Sorry to belabor this point a little bit. Hello.
I just wanted to add to that, in case of Chyawanprash, however, the three-year CAGR is not 5%, it is 6% for the full year. In case of honey, it is 11.2%. But only thing is this quarter is a very different quarter. It is also, the CAGR in this quarter is seeming a bit low.
Okay. I mean, I don't expect you to give guidance, but if I am to roll forward for the next two, three quarters versus a pre-COVID level, if I have to see the CAGR for the health supplements business, do you think we can come closer to the double digit number versus the 5% number?
There is still a high base for some of the brands.
Yeah, for next quarter, Percy, we have a very, very high base of contextual product that we had launched, like Tulsi Drops, health juices, et cetera, which has got a high base in the next quarter. I think for the full year basis, yes, we should be able to trend at a double-digit CAGRs definitely for the health portfolio.
Sure. I just had a few more points on this, but I guess I'll take it online because I want to ask my second question, which is on the foods business. You mentioned that the foods growth YoY is 12%. Here I am assuming foods refers to your Hommade brand and the other new sort of initiatives like Papads and Pickles, et cetera. Given that the new product launch intensity over the last one and a half, two years has been quite robust, again, was a little surprised that the overall growth, including all these new launches, et cetera, is only 12%.
No, actually what has happened is that we are lapped over the base when we had actually launched it. That's why you're seeing a little muted growth because when you launch it you put a lot of inventory. Otherwise the food business is doing very well for us. The three-year CAGR is in the range of around 12% or so for the foods business also.
Okay. Yeah. That's all from me. Thanks and all the best.
Thanks, Percy. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Prakash Kapadia from Anived Portfolio. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. You know, on the juices and nectar market, has that also contracted? You did talk about, you know, market share gains for us. So if you could comment on that. You know, what is the outlook in the summer season for the juice and, you know, the glucose segment?
35% here. Going forward, I think the summers are protracted and more severe. We feel the juices and nectars and also drinks category will do great for us. It's actually trending very well in the month of April also.
You know, you did mention about, you know, some kind of down trading. You know, on hair oil, toothpaste, the market has declined. That is specific to, you know, Hindi speaking belts or is it, you know, entire rural India? If you could give some insight, that would be helpful.
I think there is a little down trading happening, and there's an earlier, you know, it's a little different conversation. Maybe I'll talk about rural and urban first. We've seen a little setback coming in from rural. In Dabur, if you find for past couple of quarters, our rural was always firing ahead of urban. What we found in this quarter is that there's a liquidity crunch a little bit and demand compression which is happening in rural India, and therefore our credit has also gone up in rural. I think rural is the one which is actually because of that pressure, that part is not working well. Even in urban India, we find a little bit of down trading happening on all the portfolio.
Be it shampoo portfolio, be it hair oil portfolio, be it oral care portfolio, our price points of INR 10 and below.
Yeah. Okay. That's helpful. You know, assuming this inflationary environment continues, would HPC get more affected if, you know, this kind of a scenario remains from our entire product basket?
Yeah, HPC is more effective. That's what we mentioned, that HPC categories are actually not doing so well, and that's where the shampoos and oral care and therefore hair oils come in. I think, healthcare is a little agnostic to the recessionary environment, and so is out-of-home consumption of juices. Definitely, HPC will be more impacted.
Understood. Just one data point. Could you tell me the absolute growth for Honey and Chyawanprash on an annual basis in percentage terms? How much did it grow by value percentage?
Honey plus 1% and a CAGR of 19%.
Understood. Thanks. All the best. Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to our participants, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question. The next question is on the line of Shirish Pardeshi from Centrum. Please go ahead.
Hi, Mohit. Ashok ji, Gagan ji. Thanks for the opportunity. Indeed, I have few questions, which I'll try and ask in two parts. The first part, what I wanted to check, if I go back in the history, our healthcare business has steadily grown from 23, 25, and last two years, it has. Last year it grew to 39% contribution, and this year it is now settled. You guys are working closely with the Ministry of Ayush. There are a lot of ammunition at the back end which you are trying to develop. Will this contribution of healthcare will remain between 35%-36%, or you think it will go back to, say, less than 30%?
Shirish, in my view, I think it will settle somewhere at around 30% because the way the foods is actually growing for us and also the headroom that we have available for HPC. I think, healthcare should settle at around 30%, and that's what you guys are seeing. The foods portfolio, which used to be 20%, got shrunk to around 14-15, is also inching up to around 19% for us. It's not because healthcare is not doing well, it's because.
Mohit, any update on that Ayush Ministry effort, what we were trying to do, about two quarters before?
See, we are still collaborating with the Ministry of Ayush, so we've done a lot of clinical trials on our products along with Ministry of Ayush, and we are using the data for communicating to consumer in our name. Like AYUSH 64 we guys had launched and a slew of NPDs with collaboration of Ministry of Ayush we are rolling out. That initiative is still on for us.
Okay. My second question is on oral care. When you mentioned that the category decline which is happening, I mean, it could be short-term, but steadily the last four to five years, naturals has picked up. When you say downtrading, which is happening at the low end of the naturals, say, Babool and maybe the lower end pyramid, Cibaca types product which are growing faster, your data points?
No, not really. I think downtrading is happening across the board. It is just not the economy segment where the downtrading is happening because unlike other categories where you've got distinct brands, in oral care, every brand is existing in a INR 10 price point. Be it a Colgate or be it brands like Babool, we'd see downtrading. That said, Babool is under pressure because, as I told you, rural is under pressure. Babool sells well in our rural India, so that's under pressure because of liquidity issues, and that's a separate discussion. The downtrading is seen I think across the board, across brands.
Okay. My next question is on the international part. I think, after a long time, we are seeing a consistency, and the credit goes to you because you have seen and you have taken that seriously. I think, if you can help me to understand, the top line will still grow double-digit, but any terms you would like to help us understand profitability part?
Sorry, Shirish I couldn't get the question. Could you please repeat it again?
In the international business you have grown strong double digit, and there is a consistency which I'm seeing. If you can guide on the profitability part, how do you see the next two to three years, how profitability will pan out?
Right. International business is doing well for us, and most of the headwinds are actually behind us. Except for the inflation. Inflation is hitting international business quite a bit because of it being a personal care business, and personal care business dependent on the oil and oil derivatives. That's why. Overall, I think international business is doing pretty well for us. The most profitable part of international business is Middle East and North African business, which contributes around 40-50% of our total turnover. That is doing exceedingly well. For the full year we've grown by around 13%, and their profitability is significantly higher as compared to other parts of the business. What is not doing well for us is Turkey business, for which we've actually taken impairment and therefore profitability is under pressure.
The U.S. part of the business is also doing well and profitably. Sub-Saharan Africa is also doing well. Egypt business, which is also very profitable, is also doing well for us. SAARC business is growing at around 15%, and that also we expect almost a double-digit growth going forward next year. I don't see any profit pressures coming out of international business going forward. We have taken and we are taking a lot of price increases because the per capita income is higher in places where we exist. We think we'll be able to pass on the inflationary pressures to the consumers in terms of price increases. We budgeted a lot of price increases. International, we think we are in a good space there.
Okay. My last question I picked up during the opening remarks. You mentioned that inflation is sitting at 12.5%. Is it that current inflation which you wanted to refer? Or if not, then what is the current inflation we are seeing right now, and what price increases we have already taken and are thinking of taking more?
Right. We talked about the full year inflation. Full year inflation number is around 12.5%. If I look at the inflation of the last quarter, which is almost like around 16%, Shirish, which is very high, out of which 9%-10% is the Indian inflation. We expect this inflation to be around 8%-9% going forward also. We are not seeing any signs of the inflation kind of abating. That's a big pressure. Our you know flexibility of passing on this entire inflation in terms of price increases is there, but this would only tell on the volumes. Therefore, we are kind of pushing back not really taking very heavy price increases and waiting for competitors to take price increases before we take price increases.
That's why it's telling there could be a near-term pressure on the margins, because of this. For the full year, we expect the inflation to be in the range of around 7% going forward next year. Second half of the year, we see a little bit of, you know, comfort happening from inflation. We have taken a 5.6% of price increases to hedge this inflation, but if inflation continues, then we may have to take another round of price increases.
If I work backwards, 5.7% was growth you have said and 5.6. Roughly about 2%-2.5% is the volume growth in the quarter?
Yes, sir.
Okay. Thank you, Mohit, and all the best to you and the team.
Thank you. Thank you, Shirish. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is on the line of Harit Kapoor from Investec. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, good evening. So my first question was on the innovation, you know, intensity. In an environment where, you know, the global markets are weak, there's a downtrend across the board and, you know, you have challenges on inflation where you will look to kind of cut cost in you know on the OpEx line. Could you just help us, you know, do we expect for the next six to nine months, you know, some of the innovation initiatives to kind of be pushed back a little bit as you look to kind of you know balance you know core revenue growth as well as margins?
Harit, we are not looking at cutting back or, you know, pushing back on the innovation. I feel innovation is part of doing business here. Now the way market dynamics have actually developed, channel dynamics have developed, we have enough revenues to put out innovation, test the test balloon, see how it actually fares, and then roll it out to mass. We have enough revenues where cost-effective innovations can be rolled out and testing can be done, like e-commerce. E-commerce is where we are very aggressive on innovation. Our innovation percentage for the overall business is around 5%, but on e-commerce it's in the range of around 11%-12%. That will continue.
As and when innovation is tested out there on e-commerce, we will roll it out in modern trade and in selective [OFO]. We will not put it out in GT. The innovation in GT, we are not very aggressive in terms of doing. That we'll be very calibrated in doing because that's costing us arm and a leg. But as far as e-commerce is concerned, we will continue with the innovation spree the way it has been for us. We want to target an innovation rate of around 4%-5% going forward next year also.
Okay. Got it. The second question was, you know, on the toothpaste side. If I remember correctly, you know, you had mentioned a while back that market share number was a bit higher at about 16%-17%, but maybe I got that wrong. I think you mentioned about 14.5 this time around. You know, is that. Just wanted to clarify on that?
Yeah. Harit, I think there's a difference between volume and value market share.
All right. That 16%-17% was volume.
Yeah.
-rather than-
That's 16.5%.
Got it. That's it then. Thank you.
Thank you. Our next question is from the line of [Shirish] Maheshwari from Centrum. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. Am I audible?
Yes, you're audible. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity. Will you be acting on the rise in input cost pressure, via price hikes in the coming quarters? Could you give some color on how the margin trajectory would look like for the next two years?
Yeah. Hi, [Shirish]. In fact, yes, there are input cost pressures as we speak. While, you know, last year we saw almost 12% increase in input cost at a group level. Even going forward, it remains unabated. Therefore, in near term, definitely we see some margin pressures. However, we would be taking calibrated price increases depending on competitive intensity in the relevant categories, plus also strengthening or hardening our cost saving initiatives programs for them. Though there would be definite pressures on margins, but I think as an organization, you know, we are doing all the efforts either in terms of price increases or cost mitigation.
To give an exact range in H1 looks difficult at this point of time because it is very volatile and uncertain given the supply chain, you know, pressures as well.
How would it look at, how can we look at it from a two-year perspective, like the trajectory, if you could give some color on that?
Yeah, [Shirish]. We want to maintain our margin. Definitely we have operating margin which is going on. We want to currently maintain, and we are targeting to maintain our operating margin. If it calls for optimizing our media, we will optimize our media to cut on employee expenses, to reduce our fixed overheads, variable overheads. We will cut that. We want to maintain our margin. That's what you've seen in the current year also. While there is a 20 bps of contraction which is happening, but broadly we've been able to maintain our operating margin percentages. That's the way we would want to go.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Chinmay Gandhi from Reliance Nippon Life. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. Just wanted a read on, I mean, we hear around about the higher crop prices in terms of wheat and, some other crops. I mean, is it not really translating into net income for the rural side of the economy? Is it not really kind of helping us or kind of spurring the demand over there? Just wanted a read on that.
Yeah. I think you're right. The prediction of the monsoon is good. Even the harvest is gonna be good, plus farmers are getting a better price for wheat as it gets exported. I think, we are also of the view that, rural economy will turn around. There is an immediate pressure that we see near term, but overall I think, over six months' time, rural should recover, and that should help, Dabur also. This is in addition to all the initiatives that we are taking in terms of rural expansion, whether expanding our villages or expanding our direct reach or our Yoddha program. This will really help us. We are very confident and feel that rural will actually recover. It's only in past one quarter that we've seen a rural pressure.
Otherwise rural has been pretty resilient on the business for us. Chinmay.
I mean, the rabi harvest would have been, I mean, kind of, translated into some kind of income for the farmers and community in the rural areas. That right now we are not seeing anything on that front, right? I mean, those income translating into savings for them and maybe beneficial in terms of demand.
Not really. No, no, not really. For the first time, actually, we've seen the rural pressure building up and therefore liquidity constraints in rural and consumption pressure also, and there's a squeeze on the wallet of the rural consumer, and that is being felt for the first time. Because earlier we used to get back our money from rural in around 12 days' time. Now the circle, the cycle is actually almost double. We are getting back our monies in the rural at around 20 days. Credit is also going up. That is a very clear signal that there's a compression in the consumption which is being visible in rural. This is in the Hindi heartland more that we have seen. We have to wait and watch. Not that we see any green shoots at the moment.
I think it's a wait and watch situation which is very volatile as the food prices and the inflation is not abating, which could be putting a pressure on the rural wallet.
Yeah, sure. Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Shirish Pardeshi from Centrum. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thanks for the opportunity again. I have three questions. Maybe Ankush can answer. One is, what is the CapEx which you are looking for FY 2023? I did see from the presentation that our tax rate has gone up. Maybe for the modeling purpose, if you can help, what is the tax rate we are looking for FY 2023?
Yeah. Sure, Shirish. On your first question on CapEx, as you know, we are, you know, we are already putting up our greenfield, you know, plant in Indore, and that will therefore entail some CapEx. Therefore in next year we are looking at an India level almost INR 400 crores CapEx in in FY 2023, including this new greenfield and then some ancillary CapEx. On your next question on tax rate, are you referring to this year versus previous year? Yeah. So this-
No, I think in the slide. I'm expecting, I mean, this year already you have said that from 17.6% it has gone up to 22.4%. What we should take next year?
For next year.
Maybe range, if you can?
It should be around.
20-
22.5-23, depending on contribution mix and other stuff, but broadly in this range.
Okay.
At a consolidated.
Okay.
At a consolidated.
Sorry?
Yeah, at a consolidated level.
That's what I picked up. You said between 22% and 23%?
Yes.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Yash Maheshwari from Samco Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity again. I think I dropped off last time. As you mentioned, I mean, probably maybe a quarter of expenses accounts for digital now if I correctly read that right from. Could you provide some sense on how do these expenses in the portion in the business and how-
Yash, there is an echo. We can't hear you. I guess there's an echo. We can't hear you, yeah.
Yes, request you to please use the handset now. Thank you. Yash, if you're able to hear us, we would request you to please use the handset mode and proceed with the question.
All right. Am I audible now?
The audio is still not very clear, but.
Am I audible now?
Yes.
All right. As you mentioned in your opening comments, nearly a quarter of our spends account for digital. Please correct me if I got it wrong. Could you provide some sense on how are these expenses being apportioned, and how do you see the e-commerce channel developing over the next two to three years?
Right. Yash Maheshwari, we are already. You're absolutely right. Almost a quarter of our spends, around 23% of our total advertising spends is being spent on digital. In digital, there are four, five avenues on which we do spending. A, advertising on digital, which is not linked to e-commerce on different channels like YouTube, Google, et cetera, Instagram, that we advertise. That is programmatic sort of buying that we guys do, number one. Number two is influencers. We take influencers across the year, across different genres, whether it's taking the food bloggers or it's taking the mommy bloggers, the chefs or the celebrities. That is where we actually spend money.
The third avenue is which we spend money on the e-commerce portals, on search engine optimization on respective platforms like Amazon and Flipkart, etc. That's where we spend money. Plus, we develop customized campaigns on digital also. We've developed almost 576 campaigns in financial year 2022. On 273 days on year we guys are visible and got around 970 million views on the same and around 4 billion impressions. We reach out to maximum number of people who have got a connectivity to smartphones and therefore try to create a connect with them. That is how the money is actually spent on different brands on digital. As far as e-com is concerned, at the moment, e-com contributes around 6.5% of our business.
In next four years, we want to see this actually treble in terms of around 19%-20% of our total business should be coming from e-commerce in next four years' time.
Sure, sir. Thank you so much.
Yeah, thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Palak Shah from Infina Finance. Please go ahead. Palak Shah, your line is unmuted. It seems we have lost the lines for Palak. We will move to our next question that is on the line of Alok Shah from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. Mohit, I just have one question.
Alok, request you to please be a bit loud.
Yeah. Hello. Is it better now?
Yes, slightly better.
Hello.
If you can use the handset mode, yeah.
Okay. Mohit, I just have one question. From the cash balance which we had in FY 2021 of around INR 4,000 crore, you know, that balance has now moved up to about INR 6,000 crore. My question is, are we looking to?
I'm sorry to interrupt, Alok. The audio is not very clear.
Is it better now? Hello. Is it better?
Yes. Yes. This is better.
Okay.
Please proceed.
Mohit, just one question. You know, in FY 2021, our cash balance was around INR 4,000 crore, which has naturally now moved up. Now it is at around INR 6,000 crore. While, you know, the dividend payout largely remains the same. You know, I understand that INR 6,000 crore is quite a sizable balance, you know, looking at our scale size. So I just wanna know that, you know, what is the thought process of the management board, et cetera, with respect to this cash which is largely getting accumulated. That's it. Thank you.
Right. Alok , this money is actually kept for acquisitions, basically. We are continuously scouting for any synergistic acquisitions in the India business. As and when the valuations become more reasonable, we want to acquire companies, whether in the space of e-commerce or which is more synergistic or strategic fit to us. That's why this cash is actually kept for us. We are continuously on a lookout here. As and when we get a reasonable sort of strategic fit company, then we may look to acquire also. This is a means for inorganic growth for us.
Got it. If you're looking at, you know, scouting for some e-commerce or, you know, smaller opportunities, then, you know, that acquisition may be, you know, to my knowledge, sub INR 500,000 crore, right? Or are we actually looking at some big inorganic foray into some new category per se?
See, options are open for all the channels. E-commerce is one pivot. Other could be in a food company or could be HPC company or could be a healthcare company. We really don't know the ticket size. As I told you that we are scouting out, so depending upon, it's not just e-commerce, it could be in several areas that one is actually looking at. That's why the sum of money is large.
Okay. All right. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. A reminder to our participants, please press star and one if you wish to ask a question. Our next question is from the line of Palak Shah from Infina Finance. Please go ahead.
Okay, thank you. Thanks Mohit, thanks Gagan, ma'am. First question is regarding what Percy was alluding to that the three-year CAGR number and Mohit, you mentioned that it is a market share gain over the last three years as well, right? Indicate if your growth is 5% and you've actually gained market share in last three years, does that actually mean the category is flattish or negative growth?
No, we did not, Ankush clarified that it wasn't a 5% growth. It was actually a growth of around
26%.
26%. It was on a full year basis, 26% growth. It wasn't a 5% growth, so I think that number was wrong. In Chyawanprash and honey, both it's around, to that level. 26% and 11% growth.
On a full year.
No, I'm just referring to Q4 number. If I take Q4 2022 versus Q4 2019, you have a 5% CAGR over the last three years on a health supplement and OTC as well.
Palak, you know, what we must also think is that in this quarter what had happened, the onset of early summers also, you know, impacted Chyawanprash and Honey. A lot of consumers had bought Chyawanprash and Honey by end of Q4 because of Omicron and so on, sorry, Q3. Therefore to that extent probably it got impacted. By and large, if you see on an annualized basis, the CAGR remains strong.
Here what happens is on annualized basis, we also have a COVID wave that was there in Q1 and Q2. That base is also helping us out because Q4 is more normalized with non-COVID, and that's why I'm comparing with the non-COVID quarter four of 2019. On that three-year CAGR basis, it's a 5% growth. We have gained market share. I just wanted to figure out whether the market, the category itself has stagnated or because last two years we have been talking about the higher penetration level and acceptance at a consumer level?
I don't know whether I got your question correct, Palak, but what happens is the quarter four is a non-seasonal quarter for Chyawanprash and health supplements like I alluded to earlier. The category size actually shrinks quite a bit. People don't purchase these health supplements during this quarter. Therefore the penetration also goes down and the category really shrinks. There you're talking about I think the 5% CAGR growth. COVID was a you know anomaly in between because there the seasonality did not apply. Now again we are back to the same seasonality while the penetration levels have gone up for us.
Got it. I take this offline. Secondly, on. Sorry.
Palak, just to clarify. Chyawanprash.
Yep.
CAGR even for three months for quarter four is 46%. But if you see health supplements as a whole, it is appearing to be 5% because it, glucose actually, you know, declined in Q4 of 2019.
Okay. Got it.
Therefore you have, if you break it into different products, then you will see a you know real growth.
Got it. Just secondly, in this quarter, we have shown a phenomenal savings in or cut in our A&P spends, but our other expenses jumped up quite a lot on a sequential basis. Would this be linked only to the ongoing inflation on the distribution side or there is some other cost attached here?
I think this is on account of freight being higher. Our freight has actually gone up by around more than 20%. The travel expenses are higher. What's happened is the food business has actually gone up, and because of the fruit, the number of cases that we sell, actually if you see a volume growth, our volume growth is actually 12% in terms of tonnage and in terms of cases that we sell. The freight has been used for that 12% volume growth, therefore the freight is very high because of the food business doing well. Plus we had a shortage of our capacity in the foods business, so therefore we did outsourcing of a lot of drinks and lot of juices. Because of that, the processing charges have gone up. That is all coming in the other expenses.
That's why you see the higher other expenses on account of the mix changing towards the food business.
Got it. Effectively, at least in the next two quarters, we would have a higher cost because in India the petrol prices only went up at the end of March and first week of April. Sequentially we'll have a higher inflation on that front, right?
That also, yes.
Got it. Thank you so much for this. Have a good day.
Thank you, Palak. Yeah.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Manish Poddar from Motilal Oswal. Please go ahead.
Yeah. I just have a couple of questions if I can. First one is, have you called out new product contribution for the full year?
NPD contribution.
NPD contribution around 5%.
Would you be able to help me, what was the number in FY 2021?
Around 5.5%, Manish.
Okay. Just in terms of international geographies, you know, would you help us, let's say with the broader outlook? Or let's say just in terms of headwinds, do you face headwinds in any particular geography as such? Let's say for the full year, in FY 2022.
Yeah. International business overall, Manish, is doing well for us. I'll go one by one. Middle East and North Africa business for the full year, we've grown by around 13%. There is a headwind in terms of inflation there because most of the portfolio is actually petroleum linked for us and therefore there's a huge inflation which is hitting us, which is putting pressure on our gross margin. We are taking a lot of price increases in the MENA region. With that said, overall the business is doing well for us, and we are looking at a double-digit growth in the current year also. Our Sub-Saharan business is also doing well. Again, divided into three pockets, which is South Africa, East Africa and West Africa. That continues to do well.
We did a management change, couple of years back, and that's giving us rich dividends for Sub-Saharan Africa. U.S. business is also trending at a high single-digit growth rate in dollar denominated, so that's doing well. I think, SAARC business with Nepal and Bangladesh is also doing well, growing at around 15% for the full year. Next year also we've taken a double-digit growth here. The only business which is giving pressure to us is the Turkey business, where currency has depreciated, and that's why you've seen a goodwill impairment that we have seen on account of currency. Currency depreciated by 40%. While the business has grown by around 49-50% in the last quarter, we see a -17% consolidation happening in India on account of currency depreciation. That is a very big headwind.
That's a pressure point. Otherwise, I think the rest parts of the international business is doing well for us.
Great. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be our last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Ms. Gagan Ahluwalia for closing comments. Thank you. Over to you.
Thank you, everyone for your participation in this conference call. Webcast, audio recording and transcript of this call will be available on our website. Friends, stay safe and healthy. Good evening.
Thank you very much. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Dabur India Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you all for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.