Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Q3 and 9 Months FY25 Conference Call of Eris Life sciences Limited. We have with us on call today Mr. Amit Bakshi, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. V. Krishnakumar, Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director, Mr. Sachin Shah, Chief Financial Officer, and Ms. Kruti Raval, Head Investor Relations. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Please note this call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. V. Krishnakumar, Chief Operating Officer and Executive Director of the company. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, and welcome to our earnings call for quarter three and nine months of this financial year. Getting right into the details, our flagship Domestic Branded Formulations business has delivered an organic growth of 12% in quarter three, and this has been on the back of new product launches and price increases taking effect. The base business revenue for quarter three was INR 529 crores, and for the nine-month period, it is INR 1,540 crores. The quarter three growth is 12%, and the YTD growth is 9%. The base business EBITDA margin has expanded substantially, so 39% in Q3 and 40% on a nine-month basis. The nine-month margin of 40% represents an expansion of nearly 270 basis points, so the same number was close to 37% for the same period last year.
We continue to witness strong momentum in business integration, so we have a decline of around 518 basis points in gross margin on a nine-month basis, which has been largely offset by a 460 basis points decline in the fixed expenses ratio, and we remain to deliver the numbers as per guidance in the Domestic Branded Formulations business. This is the detailed set of numbers for the Domestic Branded Formulations business in quarter three and nine- months, so total revenue from operations: 635 crores in this quarter, which represents a 35% growth. EBITDA of 230 crores, which is a 31% growth. For the nine-month period, domestic branded revenue of 1,911 crores, which is again a 35% growth. With an EBITDA of 695 crores, which is a growth of 36%.
As mentioned on the previous slide, the YTD gross margin is down by 518 basis points due to change in the business mix, primarily the Biocon segments. This has been largely offset by the fixed expense ratio coming down by nearly 460 basis points YOY due to synergies from business integration. Moving on, we are gearing up well to leverage the market opportunity in GLP-1. So in terms of key updates, we have entered into a strategic partnership for the launch of Semaglutide. We expect Eris to be among the first to launch in India. And given the capabilities that Swiss Parenterals has in the Form-Fill-Finish of synthetic peptides and cartridges, we are doing the necessary pre-work to initiate dosage form manufacturing in due course.
We believe that after the initial launch, there is a strong economic case for the peptide to make way for the recombinant Sema, as in the innovator product. On this front, Levim has completed preclinical studies for recombinant Sema, and it has obtained the approval to go ahead with the application for human trials. In parallel, we are preparing our Bhopal facility to be ready for the Form-Fill-Finish of the recombinant Sema in the medium term. So in summary, we are taking all the actions required to have complete control over the supply chain in terms of bulk and formulation, and also a good cost position. What makes us confident of our ability to win? It's really our market-leading position in the diabetes market. We are among the top three by prescription rank among diabetologists and endocrinologists.
We rank among the top five companies in the overall diabetes therapy with a 6% market share, and we are the largest Indian Company in the insulin segment with a 10% market share. Our new product launches from our own R&D pipeline have started driving growth. We have been talking to you about this for a few quarters now, so happy to share that three first-in-market combinations of Dapagliflozin from our R&D stable were launched in Q3, which gives us a differentiated play in the fast-growing SGLT2 space. So Dapagliflozin-Bisoprolol, Dapagliflozin-Pioglitazone
The Empagliflozin and combinations family, that is a patent expiration opportunity, which again we'll start realizing in this quarter. And Esaxerenone, a novel antihypertensive, this has been cleared for BEs and CT. So the BE study is in progress right now, and we will take up the CT subsequently. A quick update in terms of what is happening at our Bhopal and Eris Ahmedabad manufacturing units. So at Bhopal, we are on track for operationalizing the Form-Fill Finish of Insulins from the first quarter. So as we have been discussing with you, the tech transfer from Biocon is underway. The validation of insulin and Glargine vials has already begun, and the margin benefits in insulin vials because of insourcing will start accruing from quarter one. What follows will be the insourcing of cartridge fill finish operations and the consequent margin benefits, which will start flowing in later in the financial year.
We will subsequently target EU- GMP and RoW market approvals from this unit. In terms of the key developments at Eris Ahmedabad unit for the quarter, we were inspected by two RoW regulatory agencies in Q3. The Brazilian ANVISA inspection is scheduled for the first week of May. So on the back of these inspections and subsequent approvals, we are expecting OSD exports to kickstart from this unit in the 26th. So what we would like to summarize here is that these two facilities, in addition to giving us margin benefits in our DBF business, these facilities are opening up new revenue streams for us in terms of export markets. Moving on to Swiss Parenterals , the base business, which is the ROW injectable business, is chugging along at a quick pace.
The nine-month revenue stands at INR 232 crores with an EBITDA of INR 76 crores, and this business is on track to deliver its FY25 guidance of INR 330 crores. Concurrently, we have been building the foundation to accelerate the growth trajectory of this business by adding new revenue streams. Both Swiss sites were inspected by HALMED in Q3. ANVISA inspection again confirmed for quater one, and we have initiated the necessary groundwork to commercialize Levim's products, which are at present Liraglutide, Pegaspargase, and Streptokinase . These are substantially meaningful markets in the RoW space where Swiss has a good channel penetration. We have initiated the groundwork in terms of dossier preparation and filing so that these products can get across to the RoW markets. We are significantly ahead of guidance in debt reduction.
We have two tables here which compare the debt reduction plan that we shared with you at the start of this financial year and what is the outlook like at this point. We told you that by the end of this financial year, we will have a net debt of INR 2,600 crore, and we are currently looking at being at INR 2,100 crore. This represents a INR 500 crore ahead of target. By mid of the next financial year, we will get to our target number of 1.5 times debt-to-EBITDA, so looking at a net debt of INR 1,750 crore by the end of September 2025. The TTM debt-to-EBITDA ratios are also moving in tandem. Compared to an opening ratio of nearly 4x at the start of this year, we will be at around 2x by the close of this year and 1.5x by mid next financial year.
We are also happy to share with you that our acquisitions have started delivering, and this will drive a very exciting EPS inflection point starting next financial year. So on the left side of this slide, we have summarized the investment cycle of the last four years, which you are familiar with. Our asset base expanded from 921 crores to nearly 5,500 crores over the four-year period, substantially driven by acquisitions. The EPS trajectory during the same time is what has been reflected, and this was a mix of multiple factors playing out. One is that acquisitions were in various stages of value creation, especially the ones acquired in February and April. There was a significant incentivization and finance cost.
The Guwahati facility fiscal benefits expired in FY24, so we have a sharp increase in effective book tax rate to 25% in this financial year, and all of that resulted in the EPS trajectory being what it is. Now, when we look at FY26, we are seeing an inflection point in EPS growth, with an EPS growth estimated of more than 50% in FY26 due to three factors playing out. One is growth and margin improvement in the acquired businesses. Secondly, debt reduction in FY25, which is higher than expectation by INR 500 crores, thereby lowering the interest expenses next year and tighter capital management. Post '26, EPS growth will continue to get amplified each year by quarter-on-quarter debt reduction and year-on-year declining book tax rate, in addition to operating profit growth, which will happen. These factors also substantially change the ROCE trajectory over the next three, four years.
So again, if I look at the two factors, EBIT and Invested Capital, a lot of initiatives being taken on both fronts. So return on capital employed, which was at 11% in FY24, will end up at 15% this year, looking at 18% next year, and to exceed 20% in FY27. And adjusted ROC, which excludes the impact of deal-related amortization, stood at 19% last year, looking at 20% this year and 22% in FY26. Consolidated P&L for the quarter and 9-month period consolidated operating revenue of INR 727 crores, which represents a growth of 50%. 9-month revenue of INR 2,188 crores, again a growth of 50%. In terms of the margin movement, gross margin down by 600 basis points due to significant changes in product business mix. This is on account of Biocon as well as Swiss Parenterals . Fixed expenses ratio down by 436 basis points year-on-year.
EBITDA for the quarter was at INR 250 crores, which is a growth of 43%. 9-month at INR 765 crores, which is a growth of 45%. Book tax rate was 25.2% for the quarter and 24.3% YTD. OCF to EBITDA ratio of 103% YTD, and cash EPS is in line with previous year's numbers. So this brings us to the close of this quarter's presentation, and now we can move on to the Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, please click on the raise hand icon tab available on your toolbar or on the Q&A tab available on your screen. Kindly turn on your microphone when the operator announces your name. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We'll take a first question from Kunal Randeria from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
I hope I, hello, I hope I'm audible. Yes. Firstly, would it be fair to assume that excluding Biocon , the growth will be like close to 8%-9% for the quarter?
Excluding Biocon , the growth is 11%. Including Biocon , it is 12%.
Okay, so which means, okay, so Biocon hasn't grown or has it begun over the years?
It's a smaller base, Kunal, so it has grown much faster than 12%, but because the salience in the overall base is smaller, so the movement is 11% to 12%.
Right. Okay. Surely. Okay, got it. So then in that case, what would be a Biocon plus two sales for the quarter? I mean, I'm just comparing to the disclosure that you made in the previous two quarters.
It's in line with the disclosures in the previous quarter, so around INR 135 crores per quarter after taking into account the insulin shortages, so we continue to chug along at that pace.
Okay. Got it. Secondly, again on the insulin business, can you share what the market growth rate is today and what are your growth expectations going forward?
Yeah. So, hi, Amit here, so now this is a very interesting question because there are two sides of it. One is the market growth, and the second, we see some discontinuation, some shortage rather, my bad, some shortages which have been created by the largest player, and these shortages have been there for quite some time. So those shortages are giving us and every other player actually a chance to grow better. Our idea is that plain human insulins, especially in the cartridges, will give us more room to grow going forward. The only caveat is the supply should head back to the right levels, which we think should happen from March onwards.
Right. And Amit, thanks for that. Can you share why the biggest player has created the shortages? Does he himself have supply issues, or is it some other factor?
Kunal, I think you should find this out on your own, but what I'm telling you is what I'm seeing in the market. But you should find this because this is a big thing. This is around INR 600-800 crore market, which I'm talking about. So just do a channel check and see for yourself. What I can tell you is that we see shortages, and we feel that we will see more of them in the coming time.
All right. That's interesting. Okay, just one more, if I can squeeze in. Swiss margins have actually gone down by around 500 basis points in the last couple of quarters. Is it just quarterly variance or anything you would like to call out, Oya?
So it is a function of product mix, Kunal. So whenever, whichever quarter you have more of beta-lactam sales, the margins will be lower. So it is something that needs to get optimized and looked at on a year-on-year basis. So we are on track, Kunal. We can tell you that we are tracked both in the top line and at the bottom line level.
Sure. Sure. Thanks a lot. This is very helpful.
Thank you.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Harith Ahamed from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Hi. Hope I'm audible?
Yes, please go ahead.
Yeah. So your comment that synthetic Semaglutide will make way for recombinant Semaglutide, can you give a bit more color on that? Because my understanding is that most generic companies are focused on the synthetic version. So trying to understand the rationale for that comment.
Okay. No, rationale is very clear, boss, because the Bio piece is made on a large bed, and you don't need columns for that, unlike synthetics. So that is more like a physical thing which you have to do. And Bio, once the yield comes in, it goes on. So it's a very given fact, actually, Harith, that the Bio piece is less expensive and more scalable. And also don't forget, at some point of time, the innovator is also at the same level.
Okay. And then you also mentioned that you are targeting to be among the first wave of launches for Semaglutide. Where exactly are we in terms of development? Have we completed clinical trials? Have we done the regulatory filings? And when exactly is the market formation in India that you're expecting?
Harith, you know we are all aiming the first quarter in the calendar year of next year, 2026, that is, calendar year 2026. And you can very well find out there are seven people who have already applied. There are a couple of people where the CT has already started. So I think those are all in public domain now, and we have tied up with one of them.
Okay. And last one, with your permission, last quarter, I think you talked about foraying into the broader Biologic segment in areas other than insulins, such as monoclonal antibodies. Where are we on that front? And if you can share some color on the kind of molecules that we'll be targeting and the timelines.
Yeah. So that is like we are actually dabbling into a lot of things. Most of them are in a formation phase as of now. So I just can't comment on the timeline. But for example, Pegaspargase is one product which we are launching in the domestic market next month, this current month, sorry. And our pipeline today is we haven't seen this kind of a pipeline for the company. So FY27, that is next year, when Semaglutide maybe Semaglutide is available. In that year, particularly, we are targeting two more anti-diabetic injectables . But they are still a little far off, so we are not comfortable telling you the timeline. But as per the planning, we have those things ready by FY27.
Okay. Got it. Thank you, Amit. I'll get back to the queue.
Sure.
Thank you. We'll take our next question from Kunal Dhamesha from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Can you hear me? [crosstalk]Yes. Please go ahead. Sure. Amit, can you share your thoughts as to how this Semaglutide market is going to evolve in India, in your view? And based on whatever you are seeing in the anti-diabetic market, and India is definitely a large market, probably for anti-obesity use as well. But there's nothing available. There's no addressable market as of now, which we, let's say, had in Dapagliflozin or Sitagliptin, right? So how are we going to tackle? It looks like more like a market creation. So what are your thoughts here?
No, Kunal, thoughts are very clear. I don't know why are you asking this. Because if you go through the guidelines, if you go through 2025 guidelines, there a re three indications where LIRA, oh sorry, GLP is indicated as the number one drug now. So diabetes with obesity and diabetes with ASCVD risk. So if you look at the addressable patient population, that is diabetes with obesity, with obesity, 60%, 70% time, there is fatty liver, and there is hypertension and some amount of ASCVD. So actually, we feel, as per the guidelines evolving, that GLP will become the first line of treatment. So where not to give GLP is actually, if you look at the guidelines, that is the question. And we are talking in diabetes, we don't talk of obesity.
We talk about adiposity. So if you look at the entire population of ours, we are all thin fat Indians. So what happens to GLP in obesity, non-diabetes is something which we are also waiting to see, right? But when it comes to diabetes, I think it's quite clear how the things would shape up. So in, I think, 2025 ADA guidelines, if you're on any other guidelines, maybe ASCVD guidelines also, GLP is now getting indicated. In fact, the big man of diabetes is now saying that the future of diabetes is GLP, Dapa, Pio, and Metformin . That order, actually. Comes to patients with diabetes. Yeah, sorry.
What's the patient's willingness or what are you hearing from, let's say, key opinion leaders in terms of moving towards more injectable form of diabetes treatment versus type- 2 diabetes typically has been oral form? Obviously, U.S. is a very different market, right? But what is?
Look, Kunal, I feel the adoption will be great. I'm only worried about we are very conscious about our GI, right? We are hypersensitive and hyperreactive in a manner with how the GI behaves. So that's one thing which we'll wait and see. But injectable should not be a problem. We have been with Lira now, I think, two, three months, right? We are now clocking one crore, so it's no great shakes, but the adoption is happening better. And because everybody knows it's a matter of time, you get once a week. So I don't feel there is a prick phobia. And please understand, the phobia with insulin is more of hypoglycemia than of prick. If you remove hypoglycemia from insulin, the prick is not as painful from a patient point of view. Now, imagine a product which has no risk of hypoglycemia.
If you over-inject, no issues other than the GI side effects or some other side effects. So in my view, patient will have a good adoption. People love to see their weight going down. And once the weight goes down, all the parameters start behaving well. So if I put Kunal for a moment weightless into the center and then see the periphery, so there is diabetes, there is hypertension, there is ASCVD, there is PCOD, there is IVF from PCOD, there is joint pain, there is joint replacement, I mean, quite a big portion of all these things. In all these cases, it is significantly documented that 5%-10% of the body weight will give huge advantages.
So we don't know how would a non, in a way, if I can say, a person who doesn't have any metabolic issue, how would they look at obesity alone from the GLP point of view. But when it comes to this population, the adoption is going to be quite good.
Sure. Sure. And one for KK on the expectation for the Swiss Parenterals export revenue of around 330 crore for full year. That kind of puts the last quarter at almost around 100 crore. Is there a seasonality there which we should be aware of that business is typically stronger in Q4 or yeah, how should we think about that? Because it's a sizable ramp-up.
Yes, Kunal, this is a seasonal business. Q4 is always their heaviest quarter. It has been so for the last two, three years in succession. I think even outside Swiss Parenterals, wherever there is an export business, typically our Q4 is a Q1 of calendar year in those markets. So because of that, the Jan-Feb-March quarter always tends to be heavy for these kind of businesses.
So is it because of some purchase orders that come in, or is it the seasonality of portfolio that kind of works out for us?
PO driven. So as I explained, Q4 of our fiscal year is Q1 of their fiscal year.
Sure. And in that case, if there is a meaningful ramp-up on a sequential basis, that should take care of profitability due to the operating leverage kicking in. Is that fair understanding?
Yes. So profitability is a function of operating leverage and product mix. So product mix varies quarter on quarter, which I have mentioned before, and the other point.
Sure. Sure. And for these two facilities where a lot of work is going on, right, Bhopal facility and the Ahmedabad unit, are these facilities currently a drag on your EBITDA? And if yes, what's the quantum of that drag? So we expect. Let's say over the next couple of years to kind of.
Yeah. Yeah, it is, Kunal. So what happened last year, Ahmedabad facility was a drag because our utilization was 20%. This time it is the Bhopal wherein the whole thing is. So this is a map. This is how the game will be played out. Till the time it becomes functional and starts producing, there will be a drag. But it seems it's like an every-year thing. So we didn't make a point to kind of separate the expenditure out. But what you're saying is right.
Sure. And let's say two, three years down the line, when both these facilities are in full swing in terms of manufacturing and production, what kind of gross margin delta that you expect for a company as a whole?
So I can tell you about the Bhopal because Bhopal in the short term will be producing all our insulins. That's what the case is. So insulins at this point of time would be more like a 60% gross margin. Take it, even take something. Slightly less. Good. Yeah. 60% around. And we expect this to be at around 72%. So we expect 1,200 basis points increase in the gross margins.
Sure. And is there a portfolio? So let's say maybe the other way to look at it, with permission last question from my end. What proportion of portfolio you think or the proportion of revenue right now you think will be in-house over the, let's say, next two to three years?
80% in-house. We are aiming for 80% in-house.
And you are targeting how much it is? Currently, how much it is?
It is in 60s. It's come down to 60s. Yeah, but we'll take it to 80s.
Okay. Perfect. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you, Kunal.
Thank you. Before we take the next question, we'd like to remind participants to ask a question. Please click on the raise hand icon tab available on your toolbar. We'll take our next question from Rithika Khandelwal from Perpetuity Ventures. Please go ahead.
Hi. So you have mentioned that your OSD exports will kickstart in FY26. So we have largely been a domestic-focused formulation company. So what will your strategy be behind this OSD export? And what is the size of the business we are targeting? What is the size we are targeting for this business? And three years out, what will be your ballpark export? If you can throw some light on that.
So today, we are 90% domestic formulations, 10% exports in terms of revenue composition. This might move a little bit here and there in three years. But three years out, I don't see a substantial swing because all pieces of our business are on a good trajectory. As far as the addressable market for OSD exports is concerned, it's huge.
I think it's too early for us to even talk about.
It's a huge market. But suffice to say that I think we at Eris have always gone for good quality business, good margin business. So I think that ethos will stay with us.
So it's too early for this. How much we do in OSD, when do we do it? It is just you need to give us some time to really wrap our head around that. Till this point of time, we are just doing the procedural part and still dabbling with the market. This is not something which we have done in the past. So give us some time to really comment on this.
Yeah. Yeah. Understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Prashant Nair from Ambit Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Am I audible? Yes. Please go ahead. Yes, Prashant. Yeah. Yeah. Just one question on the cash conversion side. So this year, it has been a lot stronger than in the past. And this is a year where you also started international sales, where we typically see slightly longer working capital intensity. So can you elaborate on what has driven this? Is it mostly your own internal efforts to tighten up things, or is there any other factor here? And is this sustainable as we go into the next few years?
So the easier answer is the second question, Prashant. No, it is not sustainable. But we are now looking at more like 80% OCF. This year, it has been because of tightening of things, internal efforts. But this is more like one time. We'll come back to that 80% from the next year.
All right. Yeah. Thanks. That's it from me. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please click on the raise an icon tab available on your toolbar. Next question is from Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening. I hope I'm audible.
Yes, Gagan. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So the first question is on the debt repayments. While you've given some guidance in the presentation up to the middle of next year, by when do you target to become completely debt-free? How should we think of leverage on the balance sheet?
I mean, I'm not sure completely debt-free is an objective for us, or is it even a good thing to have? That is questionable. But I would not like to discuss that now. But I think in terms of leverage ratio, I think we have looked at 1,750 for end of next financial year. Post that, I think we'll be below INR 1,000 crores based on organic cash flows. So I think the theoretical answer, complete debt-free is, I think, end of FY28. But I'm not sure that's a desirable objective. I'll reiterate.
And what's the current gross debt?
Gagan, we actually only give out the net debt numbers. But if gross debt is something that you really need to understand, we'll come back to you offline with that.
Okay.
Why the coyness, why the coyness in giving gross and cash separately? I mean, what's so significant about it not to reveal?
Sorry, sir. I did not understand your question. Can you please repeat?
You said you do not reveal. This is Bharat Shah. My colleague Gagan also is on the call with me. So this is Bharat raising the question. You said you do not give gross; you give only net debt figure. So I said, "Why being so coy about giving gross debt and cash and then the net debt?" I mean, there's nothing.
No, no. There is nothing, Bharat Shah. We'll tell you the gross. Just give us some time.
It's just that it's been a practice for us and most of our peers also to give net debt numbers because they give a more detailed answer. We'll give the gross debt. Yeah. Yeah. Yeah. It takes two minutes. I'll connect with Gagan.
It's just a question of time required. Okay. That's fine. I thought you were just being a bit coy about it. That's all.
No, no. But my apologies. We'll get the numbers down.
Okay. Thank you.
Okay. Okay.
Sir, I have one more question. Is it possible to give us an idea of how sales in all of your acquired businesses, starting from Oaknet and thereafter, have evolved from 24 to 25, and how are they currently for nine months to nine months, if it's possible to give an idea?
Gagan, we have stopped doing that for ourselves also now. It's been two years, yeah. Everything has now come together. It's all come together. The come-together piece is 12% in this quarter. Anyway, the new business which we have acquired last year, we are giving you the numbers. By Q4, we will give you everything in terms of the new business. Let it be like that, yeah. I mean, it's all integrated now.
Nice. Thank you. I'm the new.
Yeah. Yeah. Bharat again, in terms of your own assessment quantitatively of the acquisition made, what are the things which have more than met with your expectations? Are there any things that might have underwhelmed you?
Bharat Shah, within taking the cue from Gagan, look, Oaknet has been Oaknet with combination of Glenmark and Dr. Reddy's. Reddy has been very good. Last year, Kruti, we gave an EBITDA of 46% at some point of time for the derma business. So the derma business has done very well for us. But if you ask me, it's the Biocon business which has opened a lot of growth passages for us. Now, how much we do in that, when do we do is something which we are working. But the way we think about the business has, in a way, changed significantly after Biocon and with all the biotech and the new complex product. So at a personal level, while on the cash register, Oaknet, Glenmark, and Reddy has done very well.
But from a growth perspective and the future of the organization, I think Biocon has given us a lot of way forward.
Right. So strategically, it has expanded your reach and capability and the depth.
Correct. Absolutely. Absolutely.
Okay. So I presume, based on what you have said, that you have more reasons to be pleased with the acquisition in entirety, speaking in entirety, even there are parts which may or may not have fully met with expectations.
Yeah. I cannot deny that, Bharat Shah. This has been quite gratifying. Both of these acquisitions with Glenmark have been quite gratifying.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Prolin Nandu from Edelweiss Public Alternatives. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So a couple of questions from my end. One is on the organic growth, right? Now, 12%. And if you remove Biocon one, it's at 11%. So you have always been saying in past couple of calls that Q2 or H2 would be launch heavy, right? So I just wanted to understand, and you gave some color on what will happen in FY27 when SEMA comes in and a couple of more products also come in. So from year on till FY27, is our pipeline robust enough to help us with this kind of organic growth numbers, or we will see some volatility going ahead? How do you want to give some color on the pipeline here till the launch of SEMA and a couple of more products that you highlighted previously on the call?
Yeah. So look, this 12% Q3 and 9%, nine months, this is not the organic growth. This is not something which we are very happy about. We haven't delivered the number, but we had always aspired for 14%-15% growth. So we've been working. We are still working on the same path.
The only thing is, if you look at how the portfolio has changed in the last one year, maybe last couple of years, we are now getting more and more confident of achieving that, especially from the newer products which we are talking about. So if we is 10%-12% something which will bring a lot of ups and downs, I don't think so. But the new product which we are talking about is more about taking it ahead of 12%.
So this is a good baseline to work with, right, going ahead. Is that a fair comment to probably?
Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Oh, yes. Definitely.
Sure. Sure. Great. That's good to hear. And one more question will be on your Bhopal facility and the insourcing there, right, in terms of technology transfer. Are there any delays? Because I thought some of the benefits were to accrue Q4 onwards. Now you are saying that Q1. So are we largely on track, or are there some delays in insourcing and some of the margin benefits that we are about to see from that insourcing?
Yeah. There have been delays. There have been delays. And we actually expected delays, but it has gone a little beyond, but still in control. So our original thought was that in Q4, we will be able to do vials, which is now shifted to Q1. We still feel that we will be able to do cartridges in the second half of the next year. At this point of time, it seems to be online. But the caveat with all these things is because there are too many moving parts. There are licenses. There are multiple permissions, especially in the biotech. There are PV batches, stability testing, all those things. So there is always a chance of some here and there in terms of timeline.
Understood. Thanks a lot. I mean, that's it from my side. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Tushar Manudhane from Motilal Oswal Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Am I audible?
Yes, Tushar. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So just on this Levim, where we have completed preclinical studies, I'm not sure if you've answered this, but just to understand how long will it take for human trials?
Human trials? So the initial trials will start early. So maybe in the first quarter of the next year, the human trials will start. But those will be phase one. Then you will have to go through the entire process. So look, Tushar, this is a process. So our best-case scenario is calendar year 2026 end or 2027 early. Okay. Am I right? Commercial launch. Commercial. So 2026 end or 2027 early. But please don't confuse this with our launch. Our launch is separate. Domestic launch is separate, and this is separate.
Yeah. This is for the recombinant Semaglutide. And probably the synthetic Semaglutide is the separate, right? That's what you are trying to indicate.
Yes. Absolutely.
So given that the innovator's product is biological, so the acceptability of the synthetic peptide in different markets, what's your sense?
No, Tushar. At the end of the day, the bioequivalence studies have been conducted across. So it will be completely unfair to say that at the last mile, there might be people who would like to use this. So that's a different thing. But technically speaking, the products are on par.
Oh, okay. As acceptable by the regulatory as well?
Of course. That's where the whole, I mean, the licenses have already come. So the drug licenses have already been received.
Okay. So secondly, on this insulin Bhopal facility, because of insourcing, at least as far as vials is concerned, for that particular business, what kind of margin improvement is sort of expected?
So I have told you, Tushar, look, I just told the last caller that putting a timeline is difficult. But when all of this is in-house, which I think should happen in August, September, October, when all of this is in-house, it will be 12 percentage points which we see. And once the vials come in, so there are vials, 40 IU vials, 100 IU vials, there are around nine iterations into that. So this will take its own sweet time. But we expect September, October kind of time where everything will come together. And once that happens, I've given you the numbers.
September, October next year, no? I mean, coming September, October you're saying?
Coming September, October, yes. This calendar year. This calendar year.
Only on account of vials, right? Here, we are not considering this cartridge fill finish, or we are also factoring cartridge fill finish as well?
Also. Also. Also, Tushar. Everything.
Okay. I meant to ask just only on vials if you are possible to share.
Yeah. We will gain some. Look, vials are 40% of our sales as of now. But it is the cartridges which are growing. And vials are also there are too many SKUs in vial. So that will be a little too much of a detail. But yes, you will see the improvement coming from Q1. But the whole impact will be seen by the end of September, October kind of timeline.
Got it. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Harith Ahamed from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the follow-up opportunity. So your comment that you expect GLP-1s to become first-line treatment in diabetes. So should we expect a decline or cannibalization of your insulin business as GLP-1s gain more traction in the diabetes indication? So Harith, insulin is a significant business for us.
Yes. Harith, look, technically, what you are saying, one of the indications approved by the ADA is before the initiation of insulin, right? But what is happening is simultaneously, even insulin is very underpenetrated in our country. We have been talking about Sulfonylurea going down since last 10, 12 years now, since the time Dapa had come in. But you look at what has happened, it is still sustaining. It's just sustaining well. The larger point, Harith, here is that as a population, we are at 8.5 HbA1c. Now, understand what is going to happen. The target of 7% HbA1c was not made because below 7, there was no benefit. The problem was when you go below 7, you had more hypoglycemia, morbidity, and mortality because the drugs which were used when the guidelines were formed were hypoglycemic drugs.
There is a whole new set of people. I mean, I will appeal anybody of our age who is seeing diabetes. Now, your goal is not 7%. We should look at medical remission, which is, say, 5.7, 5.8 HbA1c. This is where GLP will take you. You can start from a 0.25 and take it to 2.4, eight times the initial dose, and no hypoglycemia. What I'm saying is that insulin still is underpenetrated. Technically, what you are saying has a merit, but because there is so much underpenetration, the Glargine today is very underpenetrated. I see a trend in the future that Glargine will overtake pre-mixed insulin. That is what has happened globally, and we also are poised in that direction. I am positive for insulins as well, over the medium term at least.
Okay. Got it. That's very helpful. Thanks, Amit.
Thank you.
Next question is from the line of Kunal Dhamesha from Macquarie. Please go ahead.
Hi. Thanks for the opportunity again. Basically, on FY25 guidance, we had put out a detailed guidance last quarter. So where do we stand on that? Is there any change in terms of consolidated revenue, EBITDA expectations?
Has it changed anything, Kunal? Has it. We are on it.
So we should assume the 3,000 crore kind of revenue run rate, right?
Yeah. Yeah. More or less.
Okay. Okay. Sure. Sure. And just one on the GLP-1, while we discussed a lot of stuff, what is your estimate of this market would be in, let's say, next term? Where does it start in CY26, and then maybe by CY30, how big it can get?
Kunal, 30, I don't know. But my idea is that we will have one million patients. I have said this already. So I feel first year would be 2,500-3,000 crores.
Okay.
First full year.
Sure. And that would assume how many patients? One million?
A million patients. And then we have done the you take three months, and there is a dropout rate and all those things. So considering that on different dosages, we feel that one milligram will be a dose which will be taken by a very large population. So all those things. But this is internal assumption based on whatever understanding, experience, and channel check we do.
Sure. Sure.
You have some other idea, Kunal?
No, no. I didn't have a in fact, I'm just trying to triangulate what this could be. Because I mean, to me, it doesn't look very straightforward in terms of India is slightly different market. It's out of pocket, and I think pricing might also play an important role. But let's say since we are primarily into anti-diabetes and we have done what in your view would be the average cost of anti-diabetes?
Yeah. I'm not answering that, Kunal. I'm not answering that.
I'm seeing the prescription cost for a week or something on an average.
It's the same question, Kunal. I'm not answering that. It's a foot in the mouth kind of a thing. I'm not answering that. But yes, we will be very, very, very, very economical. All- Indian offering would be very economical in reach of a significant number of patients.
Sure. Sure. Great. That's great too. Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Next question is from Gagan Thareja from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
My questions are answered. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
We'll take a next question from Rahul Agrawal from Himalaya Investment Advisors. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity and congratulations on strong execution across the acquisitions and organic growth. My question is more around the organic growth guidance that you just shared, Amit, which is that your aspiration is much higher than 12%. Is that factoring in the opportunity from GLP-1, or is that more driven by these new combinations that you are launching in H2 of this year, which you expect to take you over the 12% line?
Yeah. So more driven by. I'm not even counting GLP-1 as of now because it's a little far away. It's driven by the injectable insulins. It is driven by the cardio-diabetes space, the grey space between cardio-diabetes, and it is driven by derma. These are the three top picks.
Got it. So the INR 2,500 crore-INR 3,000 crore market opportunity for GLP-1 that comes in in year one, like you said, that will be on top. Whatever share you can win on that, that will be on top as a big driver in FY27.
Yeah. That's the aspiration, man. But I'm using the word very carefully. That's the aspiration.
Got it. Got it. Got it. And from a margin profile, we obviously have had good expansion in margin across the acquisitions we have done. But over the next year or two, how much more room do we see in terms of EBITDA margin improvement at a broad level? If you look at it two years out, what sort of EBITDA margin do you see the overall business at?
EBITDA, we are doing quite okay with EBITDA. So we don't see. Look, the only thing which we now see in the next year is the Bhopal site starting into production, and then the gain which comes in gross margin. Beyond that, we don't see any great thing. And look, we are happy with the EBITDA margins. It might expand a bit, but that's not the idea.
Got it. Yeah. No, it's a very healthy margin anyway. So from here on, you are expecting a lot of organic growth coming in, and GLP-1 should be a fill-in. That's the growth path you see from the companies from here.
Yeah. Yeah. I think so. I think so.
Thank you so much.
Thanks. Thanks, Venkat.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll take that as the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to Mr. V. Krishnakumar for closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you for your participation. To summarize, our branded formulations business has delivered a 12% organic growth in quarter three. The base business EBITDA margin for nine months has increased to 40%, up from 35% for the 37%, I'm sorry, for the same period last year. Consolidated YTD revenue stands at ₹2,188 crores, which is a 50% growth. Consolidated YTD EBITDA stands at ₹765 crores with a 35% margin and 45% growth. On the back of strong cash flows and capital efficiency, we are more than six months ahead of schedule on debt repayment. This, combined with several operating levers, will soon take us to an exciting inflection point in EPS growth. Starting FY26, EPS growth will get amplified each year by quarter-on-quarter debt reduction and year-on-year declining book tax rate.
We are confident that our market-leading position in diabetes, combined with our strategic investments in biologics and injectables, will enable us to create significant value in the GLP space. We reaffirm our business guidance for the current financial year. Thank you, and a good evening to all.
Thank you very much, sir. Thank you, members of the management. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Eris Life sciences Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now exit the meeting.