Good evening to everybody. Welcome to our results discussion for Q3 and nine months of this financial year. So we'll talk about this in three parts as usual: Branded Formulations, International Business and Consolidated. So straight off, based on the Q3 trend, we are happy to share that we have strong visibility to deliver a revenue growth of 12% in Branded Formulations this year, with a 37% operating margin. Q4, we'll see the impact of the price increases accruing to the fullest extent. In quarter three, DBF revenue stood at INR 696 crores, and for the nine-month period stood at INR 2,106 crores, both representing a 10% growth year-on-year. DBF EBITDA stood at INR 254 crores for the quarter and INR 781 crores for the nine-month period, representing a 12% growth.
Year-on-year margin for the nine-month period is up by 70 basis points. When we talk about DBF revenue composition, we would like to highlight the impact of some non-core tail-end products to you. So we've identified a basket of tail-end brands, primarily within general injectables and select other categories that exhibit a few common characteristics: a lack of alignment with our core therapies, low profits and profitability, and limited growth prospects. We've decided to discontinue these non-core brands, which will result in a 2% kind of impact on DBF revenue next year, while improving operating profits at an absolute level, as well as improving the operating profit margin. So excluding these non-core brands, our FY 2026 nine-month growth was 12%, and we expect to close the year at 13%-14% growth with an EBITDA margin of 39% plus.
We've been discussing this for a long time, the RHI cartridges market, following the exit of the innovator, and we had called out that we expect to see an acceleration starting December. So happy to share that it has come through, starting December as expected, where we hit a market share of 25% for the month, and it's increased slightly since then, so we closed January at close to 26%. So worthwhile reflecting back that when we acquired the business from Biocon, this product had a market share of 8%. So we've tripled market share since acquisition, which is the highest-ever gain seen in the insulin segment by any player. And prescription share is trending close to 30% now, which is a good harbinger of the, direction in which the revenue market share is progressing.
We take this as a strong tailwind for the next financial year. So when we did the Biocon deal, we had articulated that, you know, we have an objective of taking 25% market share in insulins. So we've achieved that in the RHI cartridges, and now we are on course to replicate this in the overall RHI plus glargine market as well. Sharing some more color on that. So on the left side, we have the RHI plus glargine picture. This is an INR 3,000 crore market, where at the time of acquisition, there was a 9% market share, which now stands at 16% and growing. So we've nearly doubled the market share, and we are confident of getting to 25% in this piece.
The next piece is the insulin analogs, which is close to INR 1,800 crore market with a 3-year CAGR of 10% and controlled by the innovator. So we've been working on this space, as shared in previous conversations. So aspart and aspart mix will be launched next year, and for degludec plain and degludec liraglutide combination, we are schedule the validation batches in the next couple of months. So our summary insulin strategy would be to take a 25% market share in our core RHI and glargine market and build a strong position in the adjacent market of INR 1,800 crores, dominated by the innovator. Insulin manufacturing at Bhopal is on course despite delays, so RHI vials is already internalized and stabilized. We've manufactured more than 5 million vials. glargine vials, the commercial manufacturing is being initiated this month.
On the cartridges front, for both RHI and glargine, we are taking process validation batches this quarter, and we will initiate commercial manufacturing from the second quarter of next financial year. And for degludec plain and degludec liraglutide combination, we are taking process validation batches in the next couple of months. So when we compare vis-à-vis IQVIA, this is the picture in our top four therapies, which is OAD, cardiac care, insulins, and dermatology. So on OAD, our portfolio growth is still lagging market growth. We've been hit by FDC bans and some important SKUs, and we believe that we will continue to lag the market for the next two, three quarters, post which we will stabilize. On cardiac care, we'd like to call out that the gap in our growth vis-à-vis market has narrowed, as you can see from the consecutive last four months data.
So from a significant gap in October, we've come to a point where we have now become slightly ahead of the market in Jan. And we have a very exciting product launch in esaxerenone, which we believe will add to this momentum. More on that later. On insulins and dermatology, we've been consistently ahead of market. Insulins by a huge margin because of two things playing out. One is the innovator exit of a product at a higher price point is impacting market growth, and we are exponentially gaining market share, which is driving our growth. So overall, cardiac, insulin, dermatology, we're very happy about, and OHA, you know, another two, three quarters, we expect to be back on track. On the topic of GLP, again, we are very excited about the upcoming launch.
Endocrinologists and diabetologists continue to make the prescriptions with a close to 70% share, which is one of our strong positions. More importantly, recent trials demonstrate that even though there are other GLP alternatives in the market, sema delivers significant benefits in respect of cardiovascular outcomes, and this is extremely encouraging for the Indian market, given, you know, our CVD burden. In terms of go-to-market readiness, you know, the partnership is already in place, the decks are cleared for the final approval, and we have also made significant progress in internalizing the semaglutide manufacturing at our Ahmedabad site. So process validation batches have been taken, they are on stability. We have created adequate manufacturing facility capacity, and we have the ability to double this with minimal investment.
Speaking a bit about esaxerenone, which we believe will be a game changer in hypertension management, this is a disease-modifying drug in its true sense of the term. So, whether it is a 2.5 mg product or the 5 mg product, there's very good clinical data in terms of, not only reduction in hypertension, but also, in terms of, benefits on the kidney side. This was a product developed by our own R&D team. This is a Japanese molecule. They were the first company to develop this, put it through a clinical trial and get it approved by the drug controller. And we're very excited about, the launch of this product. That was a summary on branded formulations domestic. Now, moving to the international business.
So we clocked our highest ever quarter in the international business, revenue of INR 111 crore, which represents a 45% growth, with a corresponding 46% growth in EBITDA. For the nine-month period, international revenue stands at INR 259 crore, which represents 11% year-on-year growth, with a EBITDA of INR 81 crore. So Q3, EBITDA margin was at 30% and nine months at 31%. So you will notice a margin compression relative to FY 2025. 2025 margin was 33%. So this compression is due to significant investment ahead of revenue in people and EU CDMO capabilities, and the full impact of these will be realized starting next year. Visibility for this year is in the zone of INR 370 crore-INR 375 crore, with an EBITDA of 150-odd crore.
So we have called this out in the previous quarter, that FY 2027 looks like a breakout year, and we have been able to quantify it for you now. So we have strong visibility of FY 2027 revenue of INR 550-600 crores, with an EBITDA of INR 180-200 crores. And just to remind, FY 2024, which is when we acquired this business, the revenue was sub 300 crores with an EBITDA of INR 80 crores. So this represents a substantial, you know, growth in both revenue and profits over a three-year period. Key drivers, A, EU CDMO. Consistently, the book is building up. We're standing at more than 1,000 crores of book at the end of quarter three.
We have some tailwinds in the base business in terms of our corticosteroids and Latin American acceleration, and we have new business opportunities which have not necessarily been quantified. We have a third injectable unit set to be commissioned starting 2028. So about a year ago, we had articulated an aspiration that, you know, we would like an international business to achieve INR 1,000 crore in revenue by 2029, 2030. And from whatever is happening, we are confident that we are well on course for that, with a significant part of this thousand crore coming from CDMO and regulated markets. On the consolidated front, we recorded again our highest ever quarterly revenue. Revenue for the quarter was at INR 807 crore, which represents 11% growth, and revenue for the nine-month period was INR 2,373 crore.
We have been winding down the trade generics business this year. Excluding trade generics, quarterly revenue was INR 807 crore, but represents a year-on-year growth of 13%. YTD revenue was INR 2,369 crore, with a year-on-year growth of 10%. Operating profits for the quarter was INR 282 crore, which is a 13% growth, and excluding the impact of trade generics, quarterly profit was INR 286 crore, which is a year-on-year growth of 14%. YTD EBITDA, INR 847 crore, and excluding the impact of trade generics, INR 861 crore, which is a year-on-year growth of 12%. In terms of the visibility for the year, we are looking at a INR 3,200 crore revenue, which will be a 12% growth excluding trade generics.
EBITDA of around 1,150, which would be a 15% growth including trade generics, and EBITDA margin moving up from 35% last year to 36% this year. Consolidated profit after tax from continuing operations came in close to INR 120 crore, which is nearly a 40% growth. Key drivers were a 15% year-on-year reduction in interest cost and more than a 200 basis points reduction in tax rate. We took a one-time adjustment of INR 17 crore as an exceptional item in conjunction with the new labor code. On debt reduction, we reiterate our guidance. Net debt at the end of the quarter stood at INR 2,270 crore, and our CapEx guidance for the next three years remains what it was.
So we expect to get to a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.5x by the end of this calendar year. On the consolidated front, the key highlights we've spoken about before, Q3 CapEx was close to INR 80 crore, again, largely towards the projects we've called out before. Nine-month CapEx, close to INR 200 crore. So we'll be in that range of INR 200 crore-INR 250 crore per annum CapEx on the insulin, GLP-1, and injectable side. OCF came in at 50% this quarter, versus 120% in the same quarter last year. And quarter three EPS came in at INR 9, and nine-month EPS at INR 28, in tandem with the growth reported in profit after tax. So this brings us to the end of this presentation, and we can now open up for Q&A.
Before we get started with the Q&A, I am very happy to report that today has been a very lucky day for us, because we just got to know that our partner, Natco, has received the approval for the generic semaglutide. So the stage is set for a launch, and we're very excited about it, and we look forward to it.
Thank you, sir.
So now we can-
Ladies and-
Go.
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Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon on the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. We have the first question from the line of Nitin Gosar. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask a question.
Hey. Hi, Bank of India Mutual Fund . So, I just witnessed some change in the debt repayment schedule on the slide number 19. Could you just run through us, you know, is there any change? Because I believe CapEx programs are not changing, then what could be the reason for outstanding debt to, you know, see a year delay in terms of reaching at INR 1,800? That's the question.
Yeah.
Yeah.
Yeah, yeah. So let me respond to that. This slide is pretty much consistent with what we showed you last quarter, so there is no change. We have shared in the previous quarter that because of the attractiveness of certain strategic opportunities that have presented themselves on the injectable insulin and GLP side, we have decided to pre-pour or front-load the capital investments. So the CapEx guidance for the three-year period from 2026 to 2028 was outlined as around INR 750 crore. There is no change in the total number, except that it is being front-loaded, so that is what causes the delay in the debt repayment.
Okay.
There is no change whatsoever.
Got it. My bad, I missed it last time. Second question is with regard to the hypertension product, Esaxerenone. Could you broadly highlight, you know, what is the target audience we are looking at? Or, you know, what is the potential market size we are talking about? What kind of line of treatment we are going to have here? Is it going to be the first line of treatment? Broadly outlining, you know, how the product should be seen going forward.
Yeah, Nitin. So, this drug is called esaxerenone, which is basically an MRA, and we call it a non-steroidal MRA. The approval which we have got in India is hypertension, resistant hypertension. And, this drug comes under a new category of drug, which basically are called disease-modifying drugs. So what it does, Nitin, very interesting, that it not only reduces hypertension, it reduces proteinuria.
So proteinuria, basically, patients who start on, who started on CKD, early CKD, we call it. So it reduces hypertension as good as, you know, other MRAs, but has a very profound effect on kidney protection and can be used at a very, very low GFR also. So this, I'm repeating, this is a disease-modifying drug. We find a lot of hypertension patients moving on to this drug, especially patients who are on resistant hypertension, which means which needs three drugs to control hypertension, which is almost 30% of the universe. And then, because it has an added advantage or big advantage to reverse microalbuminuria, it will be used a lot in patients with diabetes who also have early CKD. So this is a, you know, a very well, kind of known phenomenon.
Got it.
So this we have got it in Japan. Japan, it has become number one in its category. I don't remember the sale, but it's number one. It basically is managing hypertension, so it will be difficult for me to put a market size, but if you want to ask me the market size of MRA, they are close to INR 800,000 crore. So MRA plus non-steroidal MRA in India are close to INR 800,000 crore. But it goes beyond that. It also goes into the realm of ARB combination, so it's pretty large opportunity.
Got it. Perfect. Thanks. Thanks for this explanation. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. When prompted, you can accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio and ask your questions. The next question comes from the line of Pragati Lunawat. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask your question.
Hello, am I audible?
Yes, Pragati.
Okay, so my question is, why cash flow conversion is been low for quarter three? Like, quarter three, it's 50% compared to last year quarter three, it was 120%. And how do we expect the same going forward?
Yeah, Pragati, we understand that there is a, you know, we have gone down as far as OCF is concerned. We, looking at where we are today, we feel that by the end of quarter one and quarter two, we will be able to reduce this by at least 10-14 days going ahead. And why it changes a bit from what it used to be, now we have a lot of, you know, injectables, insulins, you know, hospital supplies and all those things, because last couple of our acquisitions were on that side. So it has it will not get to what it used to be at some point of time, which was close to 40, 42. I expect this to be lower, around 10-15 days in the next one or two quarter.
Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. Participants, if you wish to ask a question, you may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. Next question comes from the line of Gaurav T. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask a question.
Yeah, hi. Thank you and good evening. This is Gaurav from Ambit Capital. Just initially, on the gross margins this quarter, I believe there was some softness, so any particular reason for that?
I think it's more of a product mix, man, nothing else.
Got it. Okay. So, Okay, so Semaglutide, congratulations on your partner's approval, and, I believe since this will be a partner product, you know, initial days, this will be, you know, relatively lower gross margin product for us versus the other portfolio. So in terms of your gross margin guidance for the India business, can we expect some softness, you know, and initially as this comes in, in-house? Would that be a fair assumption?
Yeah, Gaurav, that will be a fair assumption. That is not, and it is not because of, you know, because of the partnership, because there, you know, we have invested in equal quantity. It is all about the first couple of batches to get the approvals right. So, therefore, in my view, this will be a phenomenon across, but that is my view. And, but you are right, initial days, the gross margins would be lower, and as soon as we shift, you know, to a better, which is our own side, then it will have a, you know, a significant impact.
Got it.
Gaurav, I'm sorry. The other part is, will it make a difference on the overall number? Look, overall, no, man, because, you know, now our denominator is close to INR 3,000 crore of DPR. So will that make a significant material difference? The answer is no.
Oh, fair. No, thank you for that. Just a follow-on to our partnership with Natco. Did I hear you right? You know, you spent on it, you know, you shared the expenditure spend. And, is it fair to assume that you will have an exclusive relationship with Natco for the product supply?
Yeah, these relationships are exclusive at some level, sir.
Got it. Got it. Coming to the marketing part now for SEMA. You know, your employee spend has stayed here. Do we envisage a field force expansion in this quarter and a higher—you know, a higher increase in MR spend going forward for this product?
So, Gaurav, because we already had around 7-8 teams doing diabetes and metabolics, right?
Yeah.
Because we already had this as the largest part of our portfolio, and in the last couple of years, we have added two teams for insulin. So we are actually putting our best people, you know, within for the GLP launch. So, for us, what is happening, Gaurav, is one, one side GLP and the other side is, you know, the entire insulin, which has kind of come back. So insulin is also as exciting for us as a company, as other opportunities like GLP. So going forward, we would need a team, but I can't see it in the first two quarters at least.
Got it. So you don't... You know, because initially when a new team comes on and we see a launch, there can be some, you know, margin, you know, lower productivity and some margin. So given our synergies with the insulin franchise, I think that doesn't seem to be the case for us.
Yeah, Gaurav. Moreover than that, we wanted to take the people who has been with the company for a longer period of time. Because it's not only about, you know, resources, it's about alignment also. So new people alignment with the company, with the product, with the culture takes time. So we didn't want it to get through that. So that's why we have got our best people doing this.
Fair. Fair. Sorry, going back to our relationship with Natco, you know, they just had an earnings call yesterday, and we now understand, you know, they're doing a trial for the obesity indication as well.
Okay.
So, will that be an extension of our relationship, or is it fair to assume?
Yes. Yes, yes, that would be. That would be, Gaurav. But please understand, Gaurav, by this, the kind of strengths we have already have, we don't force—we... It is my opinion that these strengths put together will have a more than 80% market share in India. You know, India as a country is not morbidly obese, and whatever data we have seen till this point of time, it will be very difficult for our population to take up more than 1.7 milligrams. So that will happen very far and very few. So while that is more of filling the portfolio and having it, you know, but that is, you know, more ornamental than the real stuff.
No, that's a very interesting insight for me. Thank you so much for that. And that's—
Thank you.
So, if I, you know, just one last question, since, you know, you're now getting into the innovative launches as well in India, can you call out the R&D spend that we have currently in FY 2026 versus FY 2025, and how do you see that going forward?
Gaurav, we'll report it from the next year. This year, we're not reporting it, but it's quite a big... So Gaurav, look, expenses have been all around. Today, you see us at 37% EBITDA, but, we don't... Look, the kind of money which we have, which has gone into OpEx, especially in these new plans, technologies, and the R&D, has been very significant. And till this point of time, we haven't had any returns, revenues from all these projects. But all these projects, as of now, seems to be firing up in the coming year. So once that start, once that start, we will see a lot of cooling off of the OpEx also. I mean, you know, they will be counter, countered by the revenue. But you are right, we are planning that next year we will call out the R&D expenses separately.
This year, we haven't done it.
No, fair. Thank you. Thank you for your responses. Wish you all the best. That's all from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. We'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The next question comes from the line of Kunal Dharmesha. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask a question. Kunal Dharmesha, your line is unmuted. Please go ahead with your question.
Can you, can you hear me?
You're on air.
Yes, Kunal.
Yeah. Hey, hi, this is Kunal here from Macquarie. Amit, can you explain, you know, the details we saw in presentation about discontinuing some of the brands? I mean, the thought process, some of the threshold level, the KPIs for those brands that you would have, you know, looked at? And how often do you do this exercise, you know, and why now?
Too many questions together, Kunal. So how many times we have done—we have done this? I don't remember too many times when we have done this. So, look, Kunal, there have been two reasons. One is that we've been, you know, acquisitive, and, you know, when we buy something, we also buy a team. And but we are very easy to call this off, because this is our simple business philosophy, that we don't want to continue businesses which do not either have EBITDA today or is not on the line of, you know, getting a higher EBITDA, and is not worth of kind of realigning our supply chain. So, for example, the same problem with insulin is not a problem because it is strategic and we are moving ahead. So generally, it's like, you know, if I give you a parallel.
You remember we discontinued trade generics this year. Again, we had the same problem. So all these products have similar issues. Number one, they are low EBITDA, and we don't find, you know, scaling up will add EBITDA either from any which ways. Or number two, they are, you know, too outside our strength area. So it's a combination of that. Some put together, it is more like INR 60-70 crores, and I think that should be, you know, taken away. Do I see anything more than that? Now we are two years, three years with all our, you know, acquisition. We see nothing else which could fit, fit this bill in the foreseeable future.
I mean, are we also taking out some of the infrastructure, like the divisions which would be supporting this brand or optimizing those divisions, so the cost would also come out at the same time as the revenue?
Yes, sir. Yeah, Kunal, that is naturally. So if you do the product, then we have to realign people. So, you know, a short answer to that is that, you know, we will be shifting some people on the metabolic side.
Mm-hmm.
You know, wherever there is, you know, excess of people, we'll shift it to more productive and more strategic side.
No. And, I mean, one on the GLP-1 opportunity, some of your peers have already started, you know, the base work in terms of building additional divisions, you know. You know, are we also doing, you know, similar thing with peers? How many MRs are we kind of dedicating to that? Or, what, how are we looking at, you know, this opportunity which will open up next month, and, what's our preparation level?
Kunal, we are, you know, we are very excited about this, and we have been excited about this from a long time. We, we have put our best people together. We already have around 7, 8 teams working in the metabolics, so we didn't find a need of putting another team at this point of time, because we didn't want to start new relationships, new understanding, culture setting in the last 2, 3 months. We find that as a, as a not a, not a very good idea. So that's number one. Number two, our take on this has been, you know, from the day one, our take has been very simple. We find this diversity, and we are very clinical about this. So there's a lot of work which is going on.
I mean, of course, I can't share on the call, but we are readying our, readying ourself for the most exciting launch which we have ever done in terms of, you know, how are we going, how we are going about it. Let's see how it shapes up.
Sure. And lastly, you know, to an earlier question, you alluded that, you know, some of our manufacturing initiatives are currently not generating revenue, but there is an operational cost. Can you quantify, you know, that drag on the EBITDA currently for us?
Look, it will be in the range of INR 60 crore-INR 90 crore, yeah.
And, and-
At a yearly level, it would be around INR 60 crore-INR 90 crore.
Okay, annually. And when do you see this breaking even? Next year.
Look, as soon as my Bhopal starts. So Bhopal has started off with the vials, which is a good news. So this year, that number comes down. Then, you know, if the ATL starts doing something more than India business, which we expect it to start doing, say, by April, May, June, in that quarter. So these are the two areas. If these two areas kind of, you know, get up. Bhopal, we are very sure we are just waiting. It's a matter of time. ATL, you know, it's still work in progress. I can't tell you anything solid which we have, but that's how it is.
Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you, Kunal.
Thank you. We have the next question from Pritesh Chheda. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask a question.
Yeah. Can you hear me?
Yes, we can.
I think I need to log back again and... Just I'll call back again, sir. Maybe you want to take some other question, I'll call back again.
Thank you. Participants who wish to ask questions may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen, and wait for your turn to speak. Wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The next question comes from the line of Madhav Marda. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask your question.
Hi, my name is Madhav. I'm from Fidelity. My question was firstly on the gross margin. Not sure if it's already been addressed, but, if I'm understanding right, the gross margin went down by about 300-350 basis points. Any reason for the contraction year-over-year?
Yeah, Madhav, it's a product mix thing. Some of it is with, some of it is domestic, so I'd really look at it on a nine-month basis. Nothing to call out per se in Q3.
Okay. Okay, so, even if I look at it on a year-to-date basis, it's down about 100 basis points, so that's just a product mix impact, is it, year-over-year?
Yes, Madhav. Yeah, yeah, Madhav. Largely product base and largely the insulin piece, so as soon as we shift it, it will reverse.
Okay. Okay, understood. And then if you think about FY 2027 for the branded business, domestic branded business, how do we see growth for the company? You know, especially it's a very interesting year with the semaglutide generics coming in. So any sort of outlook in terms of the diabetes franchise and then the other businesses as well? And then also, how do you see margins trending next year given this major product which gets launched for us? Yeah. Thank you.
So, Madhav, your second question is easier to answer at this point of time. The first question we'll answer, you know, we'll get to you when we close the year. That's in the next couple of months. Look, margins, initially for GLP will be contracted, but at a company level, I don't think it will make a difference because the bottom line in the DBF would be upward of INR 3,000 crore. So, you know, it doesn't really move the needle there. And the second thing is, once the insulin Bhopal kind of catches up, then that is one area where we'll get a significant amount of reduction. So I'm not worried about the gross margins for the next year.
At the EBITDA levels, sir, like, I think, on a year-to-date basis, we are probably at closer to 36% EBITDA margin. If you were to think about FY 2027, you're saying semaglutide initially could be margin dilutive. And then anything else, like, which, When does the Bhopal start ramping up for us, the unit, which could help, margins?
Madhav, look, we have already started doing the vials.
Okay.
The vials is already coming in, which will give us a good cushion in the first quarter. In the next quarter, we are hopeful that the cartridges also come, start coming in. Once the cart also comes in, then we will be, like, almost 100% through. Then we see a good, very significant, you know, jump from where we are. That would be enough to make for any small things which we lose here and there.
So we think margins can be stable or could be lower or higher next year, given how we see the business shifting?
I would say it would be stable. I don't think any movement in the margins.
Okay. Okay. Just last question from my side. You know, on every concall, you know, you've been kind enough to give us your view on how you see the Semaglutide first-year market shaping up. Any updated thoughts in terms of, you know, how it's evolving and how the year one opportunity could be? I know it's a bit of a guesswork, but just how are you looking at it?
Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. So, Madhav, nothing changes. I will be more repetitive because, you know, my belief from the early, from the earlier time was that this is, this is a metabolic drug which is made to look like an obesity drug. While it will reduce weight, but it does far more than reducing weight if you look at the metabolic thing. And, you know, in Indians - in India, people who wanted to lose weight and could afford are more or less, you know, done with it. So now the real game will start where we'll talk about a large population of diabetes. And if you look at the indication, Madhav, they're just, they're just growing by the day.
As we speak, you know, a couple of months back, we got the cardiovascular data, which is very interesting because tirzepatide doesn't seems to have any cardiovascular benefits, and the treatment of diabetes is to prevent cardiovascular, you know, events. So that is something which has happened very good for semaglutide as a market. It seems that the GIP piece somewhere is coming in between and not, you know, giving the cardiovascular benefits, which is the mainstay for a diabetes treatment in today's world. So we find that it is, you know, it will be more for the metabolic thing. And now if you look at the approvals or the data between the two, now we are covering, you know, we are covering the whole gamut of metabolic issues, whether it is obstructive sleep apnea or fatty liver, has also come in.
So, Madhav, this is going to be very big, extremely big. We just need to see how harsh it is on the GI, and how does our population kind of cope with the GI side effects. That's the only thing which we need to see. Otherwise, from an indication point of view, obesity, obesity without a metabolic disorder is just like the tip of the iceberg. The real game is diabetes, fatty liver, PCOD, sleep apnea, which is a huge population. Of course, with some overweight. And remember, India is a thin fat. We call ourselves as a thin fat India. So very, very large population of ours will be at the target in between 10%-12% of weight loss....
We are not the morbid obesity, which the U.S. is, like, 44% people there have that obesity, where the cutoff is more than 30 BMI. So in India, it is a metabolic drug first, and a weight loss drug to get the metabolism right, and that is where our focus would be.
Mm-hmm. Okay. Okay. All right, great. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Rahul Agrawal. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you're representing, and ask your question.
Thanks for the opportunity. This is Rahul Agrawal from Everflow Capital Partners. The cartridge market, you mentioned that you have reached a 20% market share in December. What is the market share of the innovator in December, and what sort of incremental market share do you expect over the next few quarters here? And by when do you expect to get 25% in the overall RHI plus Glargine segment, which you have set out as your target?
Yeah, yeah. Yeah, good question. So overall, overall, 25% in Glargine and human insulin over the next three years. We have now got to 25-26% market share. What we see in the data, we don't know how much stock is lying in the retailer, but whatever we see in the data, it seems Mixtard is now only 15-20% of what it was. And we feel that this is also going to taper off in the, you know, either in this month or in the next month. So we expect that we move from 25 to either 27 or 28, and that is where the windfall will stop, and then it will start gaining market share as usual.
Important to note, my friend, that you will see insulin markets degrowing because our price is 40% less than the, you know, than the lead brand.
Mm.
That is why our volume share would be much higher than the value share. And then, because we are so low priced, and this has been historically done, we see that there is a good price increment, you know, chance also, almost every year for the next 4-5 years. So it's a similar drug. Correct. We run a campaign called 40 Mil, where we are 40% lesser in price, and there is no difference in quality. It's the same quality which, you know, the innovator happens. We are interchangeable. And if you see. If you look at the prescription data, so basically in our industry, we say prescription precedes sales. So our prescription data, prescription share, and prescription growth has been highest in the category. So we believe that the tailwinds would continue for the next 1 year.
Got it. How much market share have the other competitors gained as the innovator exited? How has been our relative growth versus them?
Our relative growth has been higher because we have been on a lower market share. Largely, when we settle down, I think it will be more like two players, right? Humulin and us, and we would be sharing a market share of around, you know, 60/27, 65/27, that kind of a number.
Got it. Got it. Thank you. Shifting to the export opportunity that you have called out, you've said that the EU CDMO order book is now INR 1,000 crore annualized at the end of Q3. So if I add that to your current base, it's about 350 odd crore, you're looking at a much higher number on exports than was in your original plan. Am I reading it right, or is this INR 1,000 crore including the current base?
Rahul, you're right. INR 1,000 crore is the annualized size of the book. What we are trying to explain is we had set an aspiration of INR 1,000 crore by the turn of the decade last year, so we are well on our way. And, yeah, if things go as per plan, then it could be even higher. But, yeah, that's, that's what we are trying to clarify.
Got it. So as of now, the INR 1,000 crore is on top of the existing base of Swiss, which is very little in EU as of now, right?
In the EU CDMO book, yes. But in the INR 1,000 crore aspiration that we have outlined for 2029, 2030, we include the base business as well.
Got it. Got it. You also mentioned that you may look at the SEMA CMO opportunity, and that may be on top. So my guess is that would depend on once the approvals come in, and then you may evaluate that for both domestic and export, or do you only want to do that for a particular market?
So Rahul, we are not sure at this point of time how... It is a very potential opportunity, but we have not been able to, you know, pencil it down because, you know, we don't know how many people are there, what is the—what are the preparation. But from an opportunity point of view, it's very interesting.
Got it. So that's something that you'll take a call on as you go along, depending on how successful-
Yeah.
Got it.
Absolutely. Absolutely. But the good thing is that, you know, our validation has been done, so we presume that we will be, you know, it's a matter of time we'll be in the market.
Got it. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Participants, if you wish to ask a question, you may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak. Participants, if you wish to ask a question, you may do so by clicking the raise hand icon at the bottom of your screen and wait for your turn to speak.
Even if there are no more participants or no more questions, I think it's okay to close the call.
Ma'am, we have a question, ma'am. Can I take it now?
All right. Yeah, we'll take that one last question.
Okay. The next question comes from Sudarshan Agarwal. I would request you to accept the prompt on your screen, unmute your audio, introduce the firm you represent, and ask your question.
Hey, hi, this is Sudarshan from Axis. First of all, am I audible?
Yes, Sudarshan, go ahead.
Yeah, yeah. So coming back to the CDMO question that the last participant asked, the INR 1,000 crore order book that you have, you know, as of Q3, you expect this to kind of continue growing? And, I mean, the execution, this is expected to be kind of executed in one year, two year. What is the visibility that we have in terms of, you know, the timelines of this order book getting executed?
Yeah. Sudarshan, two questions there. One is, what is the rate at which the order book will grow? I think only time will tell, because this is lumpy business addition. So we'll see how it comes. Regarding the commercialization, very straightforward because these are products you develop, take stability, file a dossier, and then you know the timeline for EU approval. So we've called out a definite amount of CDMO revenue, which is INR 125 crores-INR 160 crores, that we expect to come in next year. And the full commercialization of the 1,000 crores is more like a three-year job.
Okay. Okay, got it. And in terms of the plant, you know, capacities, et cetera, I think you are using the Swiss and Ahmedabad facility for this. We have more than enough capacity for any future expansion over here, right? For the CDMO piece.
Swiss is currently operating two facilities which will do us well for FY 2027. And then a Unit 3, which we are building at Swiss, that is something we are commissioning in FY 2028. So with that coming on stream, we'll be more than sorted, because the new facility is much larger than the first two put together.
Got it. Got it. Yeah, that's it from my side. Thanks for this.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. V. Krishnakumar for the closing comments. Over to you, sir.
Thank you all for your participation today. In closing, our DBU business delivered a 10% revenue growth this quarter, and we have clear visibility of 12% growth for this year with a 37% margin. In line with the expectation articulated, we've started seeing an acceleration in our RHI cartridges from December, and we achieved over 25% market share, which has been growing since. The stage is set for our GLP launch, with our partner, Natco, receiving approval today. On a consolidated basis, Q3 was our highest quarter yet, with a revenue of INR 807 crore and 11% growth. Excluding the impact of trade generics, Q3 revenue stood at the same INR 807 crore, but with a 13% year-on-year growth. Consolidated margin has expanded 80 basis points to 36% YTD.
EBITDA growth from operations stood at close to 39% in Q3. Interest expense was down 15% year-on-year, and book tax rate was down by over 200 bps year-on-year. Our international business delivered a Q3 revenue of INR 111 crore with 45% growth. We have strong visibility on FY 2027, shaping up as a breakout year, with total revenues of INR 550 crore-INR 600 crore and a significant contribution from our CDMO clients in regulated markets. Our capital investments in injectables, insulins, mAbs, and GLP-1s continue in line with our guidance, and so does the leverage ratio. Thank you all, and wish you a good evening.
Thank you very much, sir, and thank you, members of the management. Ladies and gentlemen, on behalf of Eris Lifesciences Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now exit the meeting.