Ladies and gentlemen, good morning, and welcome to Greenply Industries Limited Q1 FY 2023 earnings conference call, hosted by PhillipCapital India Private Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Dhiral Shah of PhillipCapital PCG Desk. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Michelle. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on the Greenply Industries Q1 FY 2023 conference call. In the panel today, we have Mr. Manoj Tulsian, Joint MD and CEO, Mr. Sanidhya Mittal, Joint Managing Director, Mr. Nitin Kalani, CFO, and Mr. Gautam Jain, AVP, Strategy and Investor Relations. Before we begin, I would like to state that some of the statements made in today's discussion may be forward-looking in nature and may involve risk and uncertainties. A detailed statement in this regard is available in the results presentation that was sent to you earlier. I now invite Mr. Manoj Tulsian to begin the proceeding of the call. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Dhiral. A very warm welcome to everyone present, and thank you very much for joining us today to discuss Greenply's operating and financial performance for quarter one, FY 2023. To start with, our performance during the quarter was the outcome of our concerted focus on staying resilient in a challenging macro environment of high input costs and the geopolitical uncertainties. Let me share some insights on our standalone financial performance in the current quarter. We achieved a volume growth of 79.5% and a realization growth of 3.1% in quarter one FY 2023 on a YoY basis. The top line increased by 85% to INR 395 crore in Q1 FY 2023 on a YoY basis again.
Considering good traction of volume growth in quarter one and supported by our recently commissioned Sandila plywood plant in Lucknow, we are confident to achieve our top-line growth guidance for the full year FY 2023. Our growth in the last quarter could have been better, you know, had we commissioned our Sandila plant and one of our partnership plant facility in Q4 of last year. So there were some amount of capacity constraints, which we had to go through in quarter one. Sustained recovery in real estate from the past couple of quarters would continue to gain momentum, even with the increased input cost and interest rate hikes by RBI. So at this point of time, we are not really still worried in terms of the market traction.
The growth is expected pan-India, with inclination towards Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities, where the desire for the large and better furnished homes has propelled the demand, and we assume that that will continue in the near future. Adjusted core EBITDA margins stood at 9.4% in quarter one, FY 2023. That's a 100 basis point decline from quarter four, FY 2022. Primarily, this is due to sharp increase in raw material prices, as well as the change in product mix, which resulted in an impact of almost 5% on a QoQ basis. Although we have taken further price hikes in this quarter of almost 2%, but that only became effective, you know, starting June, so we'll see the impact in this quarter. But that was not, I think, sufficient to absorb the entire cost increases.
Going forward, we expect the overall raw material prices to start softening from quarter three onwards, which possibly will have result in improvement of margin profile. At the forefront of driving innovation, we recently launched Green Platinum in the premium segment. The product features with 2X fire resistance and 2X waterproof. It is a new generation product with better value proposition. The initial response has been encouraging, and we expect this launch will definitely support us in meeting our top-line guidance for this year. We continued with our prudent working capital management and the net working capital cycles to the 29 days at the end of June 2022, at par with March 2022 levels.
We are also on track in many of our improvement initiatives, which we have been talking in the past, in the areas of IT automation, product offerings, enhancing capacities, line balancing, distribution reach, and the brand building initiatives. As far as the Gabon business is concerned, we have achieved a robust sales of almost INR 59 crore in the last quarter, with growth of almost 24% on a YoY basis. This was majorly on account of improvement in supply chain and logistics. Order book has never been a challenge till date. Operating margin was 13.2% in quarter one FY 2023, improved by almost 453 basis points on a YoY basis. The demand scenario continues to look good from the European and South Asian market as far as the Gabon business is concerned.
The overall outlook is favorable, and we are well positioned to deliver long-term consistent growth. With this, I would like to hand over to Sanidhya to update on our new projects and manufacturing partners. Over to you, Sanidhya.
Thank you, Manoj, and good morning to everyone on the call. Let me share the progress of our new project initiatives.
In our greenfield plywood manufacturing unit at Sandila, Lucknow, we have achieved commercial production and the unit will support to cater the growing demand. In our upcoming MDF facility in Vadodara, Gujarat, the machinery dispatches and installation has started, and civil construction work is going as scheduled. Due to some bottlenecks in international ocean freight movement and congestion at ports, we are expecting some delays in machinery inflows. However, we are still trying to complete the project in our timeline of Q4 FY 2023. In our asset-light model, we have two manufacturing partner units in Bareilly, UP, for manufacturing of plywood and allied products. We are already fully utilizing the capacity of the first project. In the second project, we have started partial production in Q3 FY 2022, and expect the remaining to start soon.
Our another plant with manufacturing partners for manufacturing of plywood and allied products in Hapur, UP, should be operational by Q4 FY 2023. With this perspective, I would like to open the floor for Q&A session. Thank you.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Pranav from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for taking my questions, and good morning to all. Sir, I wanted to understand on the Gabon part of the business. So now with Europe facing severe problems on importing from Russia, with wood being the top five commodities imported from Russia by the European Union, do you think that there is some structural shift going on for Gabon, wherein you will see very strong growth coming in for the Gabon unit?
Morning, Pranav. So yes, I would say that, you know, our market, European market, has always been good for us, and, we have not seen any problem, during this period also. If you see the robust performance, it is also because the throughput, from the European, sales has been good. And actually, you answered, the question itself. Looks like the traction will improve further. So, we are very hopeful, you know, this year, that, Gabon possibly will continue to run, you know, at the existing run rate of quarter one, if not better.
Sure, sir. Sir, my other question was related to this only, that, since wood is now becoming a kind of scarce commodity for European Union, and European Union being a, a large supplier to the Germany and Italy and all, all of those guys, being a large supplier to the EU itself and to the other parts of the world, do you think that structurally, for at least next one or two years, we will see wood prices not coming down, and because of that the overall prices will also not come down very substantially for plywood and the next MDF and particle board?
Are you talking about the international market or for the.
Yes.
Domestic market?
Yes, sir. Yes, sir, because in the domestic market itself, we are also facing a lot of challenges on the wood supply, particularly the unorganized side. So just wanted your thoughts on the same.
So on the domestic market, yes, for sure. You know, there has been very mixed, you know, I would say, a continued mixed environment in terms of increase and decrease in certain categories of the raw materials. So, in quarter one, we saw the chemical prices again going up, and even the timber prices, to some extent, only going up. Quarter two, now, we've seen a scenario where the chemical prices have eased out, but the wood and timber prices have not. In fact, they have actually further gone up. When we are talking to the industry players, when we are talking to the supplier source and everything, looks like, you know, this might stabilize at this price.
You know, I mean, everyone is talking that the price is crazy, so that's a wish list, based on the past experience, that it should not go up. But I think, you know, something which remains to be seen.
Sure, sir. And sir, on the international side?
No, international side, you know, at this point of time, we are not seeing. I mean, at least for us in Gabon, we are not seeing a increase in the prices of timber. It's the other operating costs which is creating a problem. So like, you know, fuel has become a crisis commodity there. And, if I just talk about between Q1 and Q2, because of sharp increase in fuel prices, almost to the extent of 30%-35% there, I might have to take a 1% hit in my margin only on account of that. So of course, we are going back to our customers and, you know, we are taking a price increase to mitigate that.
You know, something or the other has been hitting Gabon more from these operational environment challenges.
Sure, sir. That's it from my end. Thank you very much.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one now. The next question is from the line of Udit Gajiwala from YES SECURITIES . Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir. Thank you for taking my question. Sir, could you please explain that what kind of volume and value growth are we expecting for 2023? And given the, you know, macro scenario, what confidence do we have in this year?
I think, Udit, we had given a guidance at the beginning of the year of an overall growth of around 15%+ . We maintain the same guidance on the revenue side, and out of which we were talking of a volume growth of 10%-12%, so we still maintain the same. So we think very much we can do all these numbers.
Understood, sir. And so what kind of price hikes, you know, we should expect going ahead, given that you have stated on the timber prices, which is a key RM? So, do we see that more price hikes could follow in the industry, and how does it help us, you know, by not losing market share to unorganized or something like that?
Well, I think, you know. So let me answer the second thing first. See, you know, again, there are no industry data which says whether the overall volume of the industry is growing or not. So, you know, if we assume that the overall industry size is similar, then players like us have grown during this period, and which for sure is improvement in market share from the unorganized players. That is one. Second, in terms of coming back on the price increase, you know, it is something which we have been continuously working. We have passed it on in the past also. You know, there is a significant increase which has happened in the last 12 months, very volatile situation all along.
Over and above that, in quarter one also, we took a price increase of close to around 2%, but that was only effective in the month of June, so we get the benefit during this quarter. While we are sitting in the first week of August, we are looking at maybe one more price increase in the value segment and not in the premium segment. Then again, you know, we are watchful, we are careful. We'll see how things pan out in quarter three, and maybe directionally, we will look at it, what needs to be done next.
Got it. Just the last question, if I may squeeze. Are we seeing any escalation into our CapEx cost for the MDF business?
Yes. We know last time also we said that it was approximately looking like around 7%, though a few things still are to be ordered, but I think it should be in that range.
Understood, sir. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Sneha Talreja from Edelweiss Securities. Please go ahead.
Thanks a lot for the opportunity, sir.
Hi, Sneha.
Just an extension to the previous participant's question. So you mentioned that, you know, you're maintaining the growth guidance to about 10%-12% odd. Even if we assume a 12% volume growth, you're actually guiding for a 0% nine-month growth for the rest of the period. Just wanted to clarify that part. Why a 0% volume growth in the coming nine months?
Yeah, I knew that this will be coming. Okay. See, if you see at the beginning of the year, when we had given a guidance of overall 15%+ , okay, I was keeping in mind the type of challenges which we are facing on the capacity side. So, what has happened is, you know that our dependence on the trading model of business is also very, very high. But, there is always a learning, you know. Whatever we do in business, we have some type of learning. We faced challenges in the last, you know, two to three quarters, in terms because there is a continuous price increase, you know, which has been happening on the raw material side.
And in an increasing price trend, you get to understand that there will be supply side constraints coming from the, the trading partners. Because, you know, the moment there is a price increase, they don't have the patience to wait for negotiating and all those things. And when as a company, we have so much of dependence, then at times you will end up either paying them a higher price or you end up, you know, somewhere compromising on the supply side. Our own plant, you know, Bareilly facility, which was, due to be operational in quarter four, somehow for some reason or the other, has still not become operational.
Sandila plant, which also we felt that, you know, we would be able to get a few full production in quarter one, had just started, you know, doing production, and we are only thinking or seeing that it reaches a good production capacity by quarter three. And our Hapur facility, in any case, is going to come in quarter four. So, so I would say that, you know, we have the supply side challenges, because of which I think somewhere there will be this subdued growth during this period, and because of which, we maintain that guidance. But we can only be slightly better than that.
Okay. But, according to that, after, even after Sandila's plant, we are facing these issues. As you said, the right impact of the same plant will come in H2. So Q2 could be a trouble in terms of volume, where we could see a dip also. Is my understanding correct?
No. No, no, no, not a dip, but what will happen is that, you know, we can better use the Sandila facility. So once my capacity is up and running, okay, I have that option that in case I am getting any trouble, facing any trouble from the trading partners, I can use that facility and optimize that facility to use and produce, you know, my value segment from that plant in the, in the near term. Okay? So at least on the volume side, we will not face a real challenge in terms of, you know, some of the supply side challenges which we, we faced in quarter one.
Understood, sir. So sir, secondly, on the margins, last time you also guided for around 11%, 11%, you know, around 100, that sort of an improvement from FY 2022 level, which means actually more than 11% margin for the plywood business.
Correct.
This particular quarter, we have seen some bit of pressure because of the raw material prices, and as you said, you only see cooling down happening post Q3. So again, some sense there, where are the margins looking at now for FY 2023? Is there any revised guidance again here?
No, we are not revising the guidance, you know, but as I said, quarter two also looks like possibly because one, price increase, which we are looking at to take in the value segment, may only come in the month of September, and the impact of that, again, starts reflecting from quarter three. Also there is an assumption that, you know, this unprecedented continued increase in raw material prices will soften in quarter three. If it doesn't, then we will have to look at ways and means, other means to, you know, further look at price hike to improve the margin. So quarter two, I would say that, you know, I'm looking at maybe some pressure to continue, but from quarter three it will improve.
Having said that, I think, you know, we'll still, at this point of time, we are trying to see that we don't drop on our margin compared to last year, for sure, for the full year. That's the immediate thing, what we are looking at.
Understood, sir. Then one last one, if at all I may just squeeze in, is regarding our MDF business. Although I know it's yet to come in, but how is the scenario that you're seeing in the Western market, given that, you know, one of the leaders in this particular space has recently, you know, spoken about some amount of subdued demand which we are forecasting, along with the fact that raw material price pressure is something that is already seen in the market and we are unable to take price hike. What's your sense? Are you seeing imports coming back? Are you seeing subdued demand in the MDF segment, or we are, you know, again, happy with our earlier guidances and, you know, we'll be able to quickly ramp up the unit? What's the sense there?
I would say a few things, and then maybe I'll ask Sanidhya to add further on that, if I'm missing out on anything. See, first thing, you know, what we are looking at in the MDF business is that the MDF business can continue to grow at 20% in the country, if not more, okay, in the next few years. Second thing, if you really look at, we always believe that the margin today, where it has reached, possibly is not sustainable. I mean, we had done all our calculations at only 20% margin.
But I think, you know, looking at today, the margins which we see is almost in the range of 35%, our fair assumption is that possibly it will not drop down below 25% even in the near future. Third thing, in terms of imports, you know, we are—I was just looking at some data, though the sea freight has come down, but it is still significantly high. So, I don't see again there is an opportunity, for imports to happen in the country. In fact, possibly, you know, I mean, this is slightly, a wish list, but possibly a scenario may develop that India as a country starts exporting in the next, two, three years.
Not because of the pressure in terms of, you know, pricing or something, or demand, but maybe because there will be a natural benefit in terms of efficiencies which may come in this country. And all are very organized players who are actually the MDF players in the country. The market is more of an organized market, if you see. So these are very advantageous things, what I see from an MDF perspective. Sanidhya, anything?
I would just add that, you know, we, we'll remain to be the only MDF plant in Western India. So, you know, and the product cost is very low, and the outward freight will play a very important role. So, you know, we've already started working in the market. We've already started collecting data. We're already meeting MDF dealers across the country, especially focusing on West, because in West we'll be able to have a pricing advantage in the market because of the outward freight component. So without disturbing our margins, we'll be able to capture the market at a lower price because of the outward freight saving. So our focus, we would want to sell 50%-60% of our production in the West and the balance across India.
Understood, sir. That was helpful. Thanks. Thanks a lot, and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Before we take the next question, a reminder to all the participants to press star and one. The next question is from the line of Nilesh Doshi from India Capital Markets Pvt Ltd. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, hello, Nilesh.
Yeah, good morning to all, sir.
Good morning.
Yeah. Sir, my question is related to the volume, and it is on a quarter-on-quarter basis. See, our total sales volume was 17.1 MSM in quarter four 2022, and it is now 16 MSM in quarter one 2023. Why, first, first question is why there is a sales, sales goes down? Number 2, mainly the sales is own manufactured product is down, not the trading and the JV manufacturing. And because of that, I think the margin is shrink, because we are, we are claiming that we are producing the branded and our realization is higher in our own manufacturing products, and margin is therefore the high. Can you explain the reasons for the same, sir?
Yeah, yeah, sure. So, first thing first, you know, if you see, quarter four, in our industry has always been better than any other quarters. And normally, the quarter one, is slightly subdued. But, if you see during this quarter, we have actually done reasonably well, you know, because when we compare from quarter four, of course, we wanted a similar volume. That's what we were trying to drive. And in my opening speech, I somewhere mentioned also, that we missed out on certain amount of volume because we were not able to get or, you know, we were not able to regularize the supply side. Okay. And, coming in terms of, w hat was your second question?
See, because we manufactured the branded products, and we claimed that our realization is higher compared to the trading volume, and so the margin may shrink in this quarter. Is this the right understanding, ma'am?
Well, yes, I, again, that also I mentioned in my opening speech, Nilesh, that, you know, there is a shift, there is a change in product mix also, which we saw in quarter one, and, we are assuming that, that may continue. Though, of course, you know, we as a company are, mainly dependent on the premium brand. We, we are leaders in that premium brand category. But because of continuous price increase, which has happened in the last 12-14 months, and also to some extent, there were some visible signs of some slowdown, there were some cash flow issues which we, which our dealers, community has been mentioning. We saw that there was some level of possible down trading which was happening and which also reflected in our numbers.
That's where, you know, because we were not prepared to that extent, even our trading partners were not prepared to that extent, to deliver those type of volumes, somewhere we missed out on the volumes also.
Okay. Sir, sir, sir, recently we introduced a new product. I forget the name of that product, but is it under the premium category or it is in the value category?
No, it is, the product is Green Platinum, and, you know, it is a state-of-the-art, product, thanks to my R&D team, and, this is something which is not there in the market. You know, after the E- Zero launch, I think this is the next level of, you know, innovative product which we have launched in the market, and this is in the premium segment.
Okay. And, sir, when our own manufacturing capacity will be operated at near to 100% capacity of all the plants?
Well, my existing plants, I think, is running right now at 90%+ . But, I can only tell you that, we are very hand-to-mouth in terms of, s o we may speak about 100% as the capacity, but I think it's almost an optimum utilization of the capacity. So we were just now waiting for the Sandila plant, which is my new capacity, and, another plant which we spoke about, in Hapur, which is under construction, which, will start giving me, new capacities in quarter four, as of now.
Okay, okay. Sir, sir, increase in the raw material price is the industry scenario, so the other player are facing this problem severely than the power brands like the Greenply or Century or any other name. So but can we are not in a position to pass on completely the raw material price hike to the ultimate finished good?
No, Nilesh, you are right also in what you are saying, and we have been passing it on. But as I said that, if you see Greenply as a company, we were always a leader in the premium segment. Okay, because of this continuous price increase in the premium segment, somewhere it is now going slightly beyond the sweet spot.
Mm-hmm.
That's where you will see that the traction in the value segment has improved significantly, okay? But in any case, if, as I said, you know, earlier also, that if we are assuming that the overall industry is not growing, but a company like Greenply has grown both in volume and value, then it is purely that there is a shift, that we are able to increase or gain market share from the unorganized.
Okay, sir. Sir, thank you. Thank you, sir. That's all from my side.
Pleasure, sir, pleasure.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one on their touchtone phone now. The next question is from the line of Priyam Khimawat from ASK Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, team. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, you alluded that despite some delay in machinery imports, we are expecting our MDF plant to come in by quarter four of this year. So are we talking about commercial production here or just trial runs to begin?
No, quarter four, we are assuming trial runs only, and then from quarter one of next financial year, commercial production.
At what speed are you expecting the MDF plant to ramp up? Should we expect 60%, 70% utilization in the first year, or will it be significantly lower at 40%, 50% levels?
See, we have spoken about this. I think, we would be in a position to almost ramp up the entire capacity or the utilization in over a period of three years. Okay? And year one, if we are able to start commercial production, let's say, quarter one or maybe early quarter one, then first year, surely we are looking at achieving, anything between 40%-50% utilization. So year one, 40%-50%, year three, almost near 100%. That's how it should be, you know, ±5% or 10%.
Okay. Sir, I just wanted to understand about timber availability at a plant in Gujarat. Is the timber cost in West at similar levels to what it is in, say, South? Or will it, will we have to pay a premium because of short availability of timber there?
I think I'll answer this question. So, compared to South, we'll definitely be paying a higher price, but our prices will be very, very similar to what it will be in the North.
Okay, sir, can you quantify that percentage premium which we will be paying?
Over South?
Yeah.
Over South, it will be close to around 10%-15%. One more thing, Priyam, what we have done is, you know, we started working with the farmers there since we conceived this project. So while we are talking, we have almost done sapling distribution of more than, you know, 10,000 acres of coverage area, and we continue to build up on the same. So I think that is another risk mitigation exercise, which we have really done well, and we'll continue to build up on the same.
Okay, sir. That's good to hear. Just one more thing, what is the timber cost as a percentage of our sales, what we are expecting, or a percentage of raw material?
In MDF?
Yeah.
I think close 52% will be just the timber cost. The balance is chemical and other expenses.
Of the raw material cost.
Of the raw material.
50% of the total raw material cost will be MDF, will be timber cost. Just, we know just.
Just a ballpark.
Yeah, yeah, just a ballpark number.
Yeah, yeah, that, that's good. That, that's good. Thanks, sir. Thanks, sir. That's also my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Arun from Kotak Mahindra Bank. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity, sir. Sir, my first question is, you mentioned that, there were some supply constraint challenges to volumes, from our trading partners, correct? I mean.
Yes. Yes, yes.
Yeah, but, sir, when we look at the volumes, you know, that possibly what you have given, you know, we did some 6.7. I mean, the volumes that we have given in the past four quarters, we see the volumes from the trading partners actually being higher and our manufacturing plants volume actually are lower. So any comment on that?
No, no, absolutely. So what I'm trying to tell you is that I have missed out on a potential growth opportunity. So see, you know, whatever, we were assuming or our draw rate was from our trading partners, we went beyond that. But, we could have done even better if we had these capacities in hand, whichever way, you know, whether in at the trading platform or whether, within our own manufacturing platform. So we could have even done better. So I'm saying somewhere, you know, missed out on the growth.
Okay. And so on the margins, you talked about maintaining margins at least for FY 2023, at least at similar levels to FY 2022, if not more. This would be excluding the ESOP adjustment or, how, how would that work out?
No, whichever way you look at, whether you know, pre-ESOP or post-ESOP, in fact, actually, what we are talking is net of, gross of ESOP.
Adjusted.
Gross of ESOP.
Adjusted, adjusted. Yeah, yeah, yeah.
Okay. Okay. All right. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Bismith Nayak from RW Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yes, sir. So just one, few clarification. First is, for the next nine months, due to supply constraints, the volume growth will be marginal only, correct?
Yes.
Okay. And if Q1 mix sustains, do you think the 11%-11.5% margin guidance that you had will it hold, or do you want to revise that?
No, I'm not revising it. At the same point of time, as I said that quarter two, I still see some amount of pressure because we felt that, you know, the raw material prices overall will ease out in quarter two. The chemical prices eased out, but the timber prices have not. The timber prices have only gone up in quarter two. Our own industry experts and the sourcing side, they have all been mentioning that come quarter three, it should either soften or it should be on similar lines. So we are again looking at another price increase in the value segment, but that price increase will only now happen earliest, you know, and maybe will become effective from, let's say, first of October time. So, we will gain again some incremental, you know, margin from quarter three.
Keeping that in mind, I'm saying, and that since in quarter one, we lost out almost 100 basis points. Of course, there was a small quantum of even, you know, increased marketing spend during the first quarter, compared to my overall budget. So maybe that also might actually start slightly reflecting in the margin going forward. Keeping that in mind, plus this, you know, on the raw material side, whatever is our thought process, I believe, last year margins, we will, surely try and achieve the last year margins.
Understood. This given plant, the whole basically export to EU, have you seen sequential pickup month-on-month? Because we are hearing news of EU recession and all.
No, we have not been impacted at all. The business is robust. The order book from the European territory is also very robust. And that's why I mentioned somewhere in the beginning that we are definitely looking at replicating the quarter one performance in the next three quarters also. Which itself means, you know, we are talking of almost a 25%-30% growth over the last year numbers on the top-line side.
Understood. Understood. That's also my side. Thanks.
Thank you.
Thank you. Anyone who wishes to ask a question, may press star and one now. The next question is from the line of Praveen Sahay from Edelweiss Wealth Management. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thank you for taking my question. So first question.
Yeah, hi, Praveen.
Yeah. So our first question is related to the premium plywood realization. So, can you give the numbers from FY 2019, how much that increased?
I don't have the number right now, Praveen. Maybe, you know, if you can take those numbers later, I'll ask Gautam. You can check with Gautam, he'll be able to give you those numbers.
Okay. So.
There is a significant increase. I mean, you know, I can only give you some number which is at the back of my memory, but I would rather suggest that you take it from Gautam. But it might be an increase of around 10% or 11% over FY 2019, you said, or FY 2020?
It's around 11%, sir. So the, my main question is, as you had also said that, the downtrading happening in the market, and.
Yes.
That's affected the premium volume. So are you expecting to, you know, reduce the prices to bring back the volume in the premium segment, or you will rely more on the, you know, the lower grade volumes to pick up?
So, you know, in the value segment, for sure we see better traction, okay? For which, we will have to fine-tune our supply side issues. And in the premium segment, as I mentioned, we just launched one new product, you know, which is not there, which is a state-of-the-art product. The initial feedback from the trade has been very good. And we were just trying to build upon the same so that, you know, if there is any level of drop in the premium segment, this new launch will be able to, in a way, hold that, you know, a downward movement.
Mm-hmm.
We have something more in the pipeline. You know, we are trying to do that by introducing better products into the market and safeguard, if not improve, the premium segment. The whole idea is how we can improve the premium segment, but that has not been the fact in the last one quarter.
Right, sir. And what's the difference between the in the realization of premium versus the value product?
This is something which, you know, I would not love to share, Praveen.
Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you for taking my question. All the best.
Thank you. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Kuber from IDBI Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, so am I audible?
Yes, yes, absolutely.
Yes. Okay. So I just wanted to know the, from the demand also, what are, what is the current demand, from both MDF and plywood segment? I mean, I just wanted to know the on-ground reality from our customers.
See, it is a very mixed, you know, if we, If I talk about the first four months, let's say, you know, not even three months, it's quite a mixed bag. I'm talking about plywood purely, because MDF we have still not started selling. So we're just doing our research and we are doing some market reading on MDF. In terms of plywood, it's a mixed bag. Even within a month, we see one or two weeks not doing good at all, and then suddenly we see the other two weeks coming back strongly. And because of all those, you know, quarter one numbers are there before you, you can see that there is no significant drop compared to even quarter four. Quarter four is always a very, very robust quarter.
Coming to quarter two also, July month was good.
You are not audible.
Mr. Kuber.
There was some background noise, so I just stopped.
Yeah. Yeah, you are audible now, sir.
Yeah. Coming to quarter two, July was okay. August has just started. You know, let's see how it goes.
Okay. And, what next, sir? I mean, remaining three quarters, are we, I mean, are we seeing good signs of recovery or, or demand?
Well, you know, whatever guidance we gave at the beginning of the year, which was like, you know, 15% top line growth, 15%+ , we are pretty confident that, you know, we would be able to do that.
Okay. Okay. Okay, sir. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Aasim Bharde from DAM Capital Advisors Limited. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi, everyone. Just first question, wanted to get a sense on, you know, Gabon face veneer's future. So assuming a 20%-25% revenue growth for FY 2023, how would that look on volume and utilization levels there? And going forward, is there a plan to add capacity soon, or would growth start to taper down or flatline by FY 2024 or FY 2025?
So, I think, you know, we have been waiting for this time when actually Gabon starts reflecting better growth. If you see last four to six quarters, we have been maintaining that whatever was in our control, we had tried to manage it. Managing the operations efficiently, managing our production lines efficiently. Order book has always remained healthy in the last five to six quarters. But somehow, post the pandemic, these challenges on account of shipping line and container availability has hit us hard. Right now, there are some signs, you know, which, which gives us that positivity that, you know, we may continue to do this volume of around a similar revenue volume in the next two to three quarters, because the order book is still again very robust.
There was some ease out on the pressure on the supply chain side. I think, you know, how we were looking at it, and maybe we can come back with more granularity of data. That the facility plus we had one, you know, opportunity there in terms of one additional facility, which was not operational. So that also we have tried to sign off in case, you know, we need better traction or, or we get better growth. So keeping both the facilities in mind, we have capacities. Earlier we were talking around of around anything between INR 250 crore-INR 300 crore. Now it looks like we can even go up to INR 350 crore-INR 375 crore with the existing arrangement, what we have.
So one or two years of growth, for sure, will be possible, and then, you know, it needs to be seen. But it's a wish list, because something or the other has always kept on hitting Gabon, especially after the pandemic, which is more of the external issues rather than the internal issues.
Got it. Got it. Just, just to follow up, so I think, face veneer peeling capacity is 96,000 CBM. In terms of face veneer capacity, how much would that translate to on an overall capacity basis?
No, that is face veneer only, no? So the sellable.
Okay. Peeling and face veneer is the same thing.
The sellable, the sellable capacity, you can almost divide it by two.
Okay. So that's why I think you would be still closer to full capacity utilization, at least so my rough calculation, not counting the additional facility that you talked about.
Yes.
But okay, I'll.
But with the additional facility, you know, we can go up to around 70,000-75,000 CBM also on a sellable basis.
Okay. Got it. Got it. Okay, and my second question: so just wanted to understand about the supply difficulty on the plywood side from our trading partners. So you did mention that they hike prices immediately, they don't have the patience, so you end up deferring your purchases from that channel. But what gives them the confidence of pushing prices towards you so quickly, given that, you know, even branded players are pushing price hike with a lag? And I'm sure this should be the case across the industry. So, what is giving them the confidence, basically?
No. So I'll tell you, you know, what happens that, you know, the industry, everyone understands, what is the metrics in terms of dependability. So when they understand that, you know, we don't have alternate channel, or we have not created, those capacities somewhere, we are dependent on them, then these things becomes an opportunity for them. Okay? And also, there were some challenges, which all of us know, which has happened because of, you know, a urea issue in the Yamunan agar belt also. So many of the factories had to shut down, which were not using, possibly the, you know, the industrial grade urea there. So because of that, there was already a dip in the supply side.
And over and above that, when you have a raw material availability issue and also the prices going up, then sometimes these smaller players, they lose patience, and they just look at that whosoever is willing to pay them a higher price, they just want to move to them. So these are learnings for us, you know, and, and we've, we faced and felt some of these things, last year itself, and that's where we started also building up on some additional, you know, manufacturing partner models, just to de-risk ourselves. So it's, it's a matter of time. We have taken, the steps, maybe a few more quarters, but slowly and gradually, you know, we would be able to de-risk ourselves also.
Would you know how many facilities in the Yamunan agar belt might have taken production curtailments because of the urea issue?
Boss, extremely difficult question. No one even knows how many, you know, units are operational there in Yamunan agar. Every nook and corner, there is a unit which is operational. But yes, from the industry sources, from the people, we get a feeling that, many of the, a nd, and, you know, those are not necessarily permanent shutdown, okay? Those might be even temporary shutdowns, but shutdowns has happened during these four months.
Thank you. As that was the last question for today, on behalf of PhillipCapital India Private Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.