Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Manav. Good afternoon to all of you. On behalf of Axis Capital, I am pleased to welcome you all for the IEX Q4 2024 earnings conference call. We have with us the management team of IEX, represented by Mr. Satyanarayan Goel, our Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Executive Director, Non-Board, Business Development Strategy and Regulatory Affairs, and Ms. Aparna Garg, Head, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. We'll begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Goel, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Thank you, Amit. Good evening, friends. I welcome you all to the IEX earnings call for quarter 4 of FY 2024. With me today on this call are Mr. Rohit Bajaj, our Executive Director, Business Development and Strategy; Mr. Vineet Harlalka, our CFO and Company Secretary; Mr. Amit Kumar, Executive Director, Business Operations and Technology; Mr. Aparna Garg, Head of Investor Relations and Communications; and Mr. Aditya Wali. Friends, the Indian economy continues to be world's fastest growing major economy, with a robust quarter 3 GDP growth of 8.4% on year-on-year basis. According to the World Bank revised estimates, India is projected to grow at 7.5% in FY 2024, driven by healthy service activity and industrial growth. This estimate is definitely much higher than the 6.3% growth projected earlier.
India's manufacturing PMI in quarter 4 of FY 2024 came in at 57.5, led by the March PMI of 59.1. This was the highest monthly average since 2008. Manufacturing has remained expansive on the back of increased private consumption and capital expenditure, fueling new orders. Service activity also continued to expand. Services PMI for quarter 4, FY 2024, printed at 61.2, was led by the January 2024 PMI of 61.8. At 61.2, the PMI for March 2024 was the strongest for the month of over 13 years. The services index itself has remained above 50 for the nearly 36 months at a stretch, the largest such stint since 2011.
On the power sector front, electricity consumption continued in quarter four, FY 2024, was nearly 400 billion units, an increase of 7% on year-on-year basis. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu remained drivers on the surge of demand this quarter. For the fiscal year 2024, according to CEA, India's electricity consumption increased by 7.7% on year-on-year basis to almost about 1,620 billion units. In preparation for the summer months, Ministry of Power recently announced steps to meet the expected surge in power demand in the country. Some of these measures include sale of un-requisitioned power should happen on the power exchange platform. In fact, Ministry of Power has issued rule, amended rules also to this effect. Plant maintenance of power plants will be restricted to monsoon season.
Capacity addition in coal, hydro, nuclear, solar, and wind to be monitored and to expedite their commissioning. Section 11 directives issued for optimization of gas-based power capacity during the months of at least May and June. Extension of section 11 directives to imported coal-based power plants till fifteenth of October 2024, to enable supply from this imported coal-based power plant in the system. The MoP has been working on thermal capacity addition, and with 27 GW of capacity under construction. Out of this, it is expected that 20 GW will be commissioned within this financial year, and about 50 GW of more thermal capacity will be added in the next four, five years to meet India's growing electricity demand. Additionally, 150 GW of green energy is under tendering and implementation.
This is over and above the 50 GW of RE capacity that the government plans to add every year to achieve 500 GW RE capacity addition by 2030. Further, the CA has analyzed the plan for thermal plants to bring their technical minimum operations to 40%, which is currently 55%. This move will help in adding more RE capacity and efficient integration with the grid. To enable renewable power integration with the grid, MoP recently finalized viability gap funding mechanism to develop battery energy storage system. And to begin with, BESS capacity of 4,000 MWh will be developed on this proposed model in REB states. Under this proposed model, BESS would be able to store surplus power during daytime and deliver electricity during hours of peak demand and also for ancillary service.
One of the options considered for charging and discharging of the BESS is through power exchange, which is expected to increase liquidity on the exchange platform. Additionally, the government is also pushing the green hydrogen mission with 125 GW of green energy requirement for green hydrogen. I mean, almost about 5 million tons of green hydrogen will require 125 GW of green energy by 2030. On the fuel side, we are now witnessing a scenario where there is no shortage. India's coal production increased 10% on year-on-year basis in quarter four of FY 2024, and on a full year basis, coal production increased by 11.7%. Today, we have good amount of inventory available at the power stations. Premium on coal also in the auction market has considerably declined.
The coal premium under the Shakti B(viii) scheme has come down to almost about 20%. Coal inventory at 30 power plants as on 31st March stood at nearly 20 days, the highest since 2021. For FY 2024, imported coal prices for 4,200 GAR coal came down to almost about $55 per ton, which is a decline of 24% on year-on-year basis. Imported gas price reduced by almost 40% on year-on-year basis, and it is today around $10 per MMBtu, and with this, the variable cost will be about INR 8-INR 9. Overall, fuel prices witnessed in FY 2023 has now subsided. On the exchange, the improved supply side scenario has resulted in increased sell liquidity since November.
The average market clearing price in the DAM segment during quarter four, FY 2024 period, was INR 4.80 per unit, compared to INR 5.83 in quarter four of FY 2023, with a decline of almost about 18%. During FY 2024, sell liquidity in the exchange platform increased by 17% on year-on-year basis, which led to decline in the DAM clearing price from INR 5.94 to INR 5.24, with a decline of almost 12%. Regulatory and policy initiatives. Let us now talk about the noteworthy regulatory updates and policy initiatives that continued to be conducive for the power market development. In quarter four, Ministry of Power amended the rules which mandate generators having PPA to offer URS power in the market.
These rules also provide for penalty in terms of reduced fixed charges to GenCos if they fail to offer US power in the market. This will improve sell-side liquidity in the market. Already, we are seeing around almost about 50-60 MUs of US power being offered on the exchange on everyday basis. The Ministry of Power amended the electricity rules, paving way for rationalization of billing charges and additional surcharge for green open access consumers. The most important regulatory development of FY 2024 were implementation of Indian Electricity Grid Code, sharing of interstate transmission charges, and implementation of GNA. And since after the implementation of GNA regulations in October 2023, volume in day-ahead market, volume in day-ahead contingency market has declined, and while volume in the day-ahead market have increased.
Volume in DAC market in second half of FY 2024 was only 6 to 690 million units, in comparison to nearly 4.2 billion units in first half of FY 2024, a decline of 84%. The Ministry of Coal amended the Shakti policy in November to allow power plants, including power private generators, without PPA, to sell power in all market segments of power exchange. This system, the CEA also amended the procedure for cross-border trade in electricity, allowing for trade through real-time markets operated by power exchange. This has been operational since quarter three of FY 2024, leading to increased cross-border volume, and in FY 2024, we traded almost 4 billion units of volume in the cross-border transaction, an increase of 52% on year-on-year basis. REC trading on power exchange has been increased to twice in a month.
Further, different type of RECs are now, there is a fundability, and consequently, liquidity has increased in the REC market. Also, because of the removal of floor price, REC-based price, REC prices have now come down to, come down, leading to increased REC sale volumes. At nearly 32.5 lakh certificates, REC volume in quarter four of FY 2024 was twice that of same quarter last year, and at 75 lakh certificates in the whole year, the volume was higher by almost 27% with respect to FY 2023. Since the new REC regulations, prices have continuously become more competitive and were traded at the lowest ever price of INR 185, against INR 1,000 in April 2023. This will incentivize obligated entities to buy RECs to meet their renewable purchase obligations.
We are working with many distribution companies that captive and industries having captive generation, to purchase RECs now to meet their obligations, because the prices are all-time low now. All these regulatory measures improved sell-side liquidity on the exchange and helped soften power prices. As prices continue to remain competitive due to regulatory and policy measures, it is expected to present an opportunity for discounts and commercial and industrial consumers to optimize their power procurement cost. With regard to our core business, in FY 2024, we launched the ancillary market, high price Term-Ahead Market , and are currently awaiting approval from CERC on our petition to extend the Term-Ahead Market , Term-Ahead contract from 90 days to 11 months... The trader market, which is presently about 40 billion units, is the total addressable market for these contracts.
Already, long duration contracts in FY 2024, in the exchange, on the exchange platform, recorded 10 billion units, which is much higher than 1.6, which we did in FY 2023. Hence, the overall short term volume in India is increasing. According to data from CERC, up till February 2024, the short term market has grown to almost about 15% of the country's generation, up from 13% in FY 2023. Within the short term market, exchanges have grown to 8% of overall generation from 7% in FY 2023, which is an encouraging trend and points towards the deepening of our market. However, there is still a need to increase the share of exchanges in the country. At 8%, we are still a distant number compared with European countries, which trade more than 50% of the generation through the power exchange.
In terms of business performance, IEX achieved 30.1 billion units of electricity volume across all segments during quarter 4 of FY 2024, recording a growth of 15.7% on year-on-year basis. For FY 2024, IEX traded 110 billion units, a growth of 13.8% over FY 2023. Electricity volume at nearly 102 billion units crossed 100 billion unit mark for the first time since inception, and were higher by 12% on year-on-year basis. A total of nearly 84 lakh certificates, including RECs and ESCerts, were traded in this year, which was almost 30% higher, 37% higher. Recently, in the month of April, we achieved 9 BU overall volume, marking a 14.1% year-on-year increase.
With these measures undertaken by the government and regulators, the sell side from the exchanges in the day and RTM market during this month has increased by almost about 21% on year-on-year basis. IGX, due to wide variation in demand and supply of gas, IGX traded volume for FY 2024 was 40.8 million MMBtu. The profit after tax for IGX for FY 2024 is INR 23 crores, about 18% lower with respect to FY 2023. As gas prices continue their downward trend, volume at IGX is expected to increase in the coming years. Let me now summarize the financial performance of the company in this quarter. On a consolidated basis, revenue for quarter four FY 2024 was higher by 15% at INR 149.3 crores on a year-on-year basis.
For FY 2024, consolidated revenue stood at INR 5,550.8 crores, an increase of 16% year-on-year basis. Consolidated tax during the quarter came to INR 96.7 crores, higher by 9.5% on year-on-year basis from INR 88.3 crores in quarter four of FY 2023. For FY 2024, our consolidated tax recorded INR 350.8 crores, higher by 15% over the previous financial years. Also, the board of directors of the company announced a final dividend of INR 1.5, equivalent to 150% of the face value of equity shares. Thanks. For the financial year 2025, Indian power sector demand is expected to grow. In the first 45 days of this year, the demand has grown by almost 12%, and during this year it is expected to grow by almost about 8%.
To meet this demand, many initiatives are being taken by the government. India expects domestic coal output to grow by almost about 11% to 1,100 million tons, and this is going to be driven by mainly increased production by the coal companies and also by the private coal mines. While this year, IMD warned of heatwave spells, which we are already experiencing. However, we are expecting above average monsoon rainfall in 2024 as well, estimated at almost about 106% of the long term average, which will lead to substantial increase in hydropower availability. Further, around 20 GW of thermal capacity addition is expected during the year, which will increase thermal generation by almost about 10%.
A combination of measures undertaken by the government and the regulator to ease the supply crunch, increase in fuel supply and increase in hydro and thermal generation are expected to further rationalize power prices on the exchange. We concluded this year with an almost 15% year-on-year growth in growth in volume. We are very optimistic for what lies ahead, and with that, we will be able to increase this growth further in the coming years. The power sector is undergoing rapid, visible shift.
We are witnessing many technological, regulatory, and government initiatives for the power sector, aimed at providing adequate power to sustain India's economic growth and help the country continue on the path of energy transition. As India marches towards achieving its net zero targets, there is bound to be a much larger role for the power exchanges in the country's energy landscape. Friends, thank you very much, and now we can have Q&A.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we'll wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. We have our first question from the line of Abhijay from AJ Associates. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Hope I'm audible.
Yes, I can hear you.
So sir, I just wanted to ask something. You know, the management in the presentation, you know, depicts the total installed capacity by various sources, renewable energy, coal, et cetera. There, you know, the current installed capacity of renewable power is 43%, which is estimated to go up to almost 60% by 2030, as per the CEA estimate. But if you look at the recent release by Ministry of Power, the press release which they recently released, they have guided the increase in the thermal capacity addition from almost 27 GW, which the CEA was projecting by FY 2030 to almost 93 GW by FY 2032.
Also, therein lies a challenge or a problem, that despite renewable energy having an installed capacity almost 43% of the total capacity, the contribution in power consumption of renewable is still at 26%. So my question is that, you know, if this delta between installed capacity and contribution to total power consumption still remains in the next 7-8 years, and despite renewable installed capacity going up to 55-60% odd, but the contribution to the power generation being at a sub-optimal level of 30-35% odd in the conservative scenario, will there be any business implication for IEX? I mean, will you see any financial impact or otherwise on your business, if the installed capacity, if the power generation by renewable is not able to match up to the installed capacity going forward?
The renewable capacity addition is not commensurate with the generation from that. The output from the renewable is almost about 23-24%, considering the capacity, whereas in case of thermal, it is, the utilization level is almost about 70%, so thermal generation is much higher. So, but if you look at the overall planning, by 2030, based on the projected demand growth. Whatever is the energy requirement, the present capacity plus the capacity which is under construction, which is 27 GW, which will be commissioned within 1 or 2 years, plus almost about 60-70 GW of the additional coal-based capacity, which is planned, which will come in the next 4, 5, 6 years, and plus the renewable capacity. All these things taken together will be able to meet the energy demand of the country
As long as that happens, we don't see any challenge. In fact, with the large capacity addition happening in the renewable sector, where there is large volatility, we have seen exchanges have a larger role to play. And along with the renewable now, government is also working on the energy storage system. Many pump storage plants are under construction. Many battery storage systems are also going to come up now to meet the peak demand. And most of these systems are going to be through the exchanges. So we in fact see large opportunity for the exchange in this emerging scenario.
So, just to follow up, so in case renewable, despite having a higher installed base ministry of power, even if the contribution to the overall, energy generation is, say, sub-40-ish level, still, you know, and the rest is still contributed by coal, apart from any financial impact and apart from sustainability impact, on business portion, you are seeing no financial impact of that, right?
No, no. We don't see. We are not seeing any adverse impact. In fact, we are thinking of it. In fact, we are expecting a positive impact of that, because the share of renewable will increase, and that should be positive for the market.
Okay. So my second question was that, if you look at the share of IEX short-term market, and if you look at short-term market overall share in the power consumption, now short-term market share in power consumption has gone up from 11.6% to almost 15% in the last three financial years, as per your presentation. But if you look at our, the exchange's share in the short-term market, it has sort of plateaued at 52%-53% odd. It was 6.4% of 11% in FY 2021, and this year it is about 8% of 15%. So it has plateaued at about 53%-54% odd.
So I wanted to understand, going forward, given that now the exchanges have a dominant share in the short-term market of 55-odd%, will the volume growth happen just by short-term market increase in the overall, consumption? Or do you still think that there is still a multiplier left, in which, you know, the exchanges can further increase their market share in the short-term market from 55-odd to 70-odd% or 75-odd%? So, if you can share your thoughts on that.
Yeah, definitely exchange volume will increase with the increase in the short-term market share. That is one driver. And second is, within the short-term market, exchange share, if you see, it has been increasing. I mean, about five years back, the exchange share was only about 30-35%. Now it has become 55%.... These long duration contracts on the exchange platform, they were introduced, one and a half year back, and, the volumes have started increasing in this long duration contract.
So the bilateral market volume is now has started shifting to the exchange platform. You will gradually see exchange share in the short term also increases. I mean, this kind of increase cannot happen, overnight, but, over the years, you will see that exchange volumes, exchange share in the short-term market will increase. And overall, as a percentage of generation, the exchange, volumes have been definitely increasing. I remember in 2017, 2018, it was only about 3%, and today it is about 8% of the total generation. So there is a significant increase.
So just to follow up, so is there any possible target that you have that, you know, or any timeline that you have set in the next 3-5 years? What sort of share or, you know, are you tracking any parameter in terms of what sort of share of the exchanges do you see in the overall market? From 8%, what are you projecting it to be at? Because that would help us understand whether there is a multiplier effect still that is, you know, that will be there.
See, Government of India, in fact, has been working on this, and, in the draft national electricity policy, they have projected a number of 25% for the short-term market.
Right.
As in, of the total generation by 2030. So this 15% should increase to almost about 25% in the next five years' time. And exchange share out of this, even if you take from a conservative, let's say, it's about 65%-70%. So 20... I mean, it should be about, you know, 16%-17% by 2030.
Right. Right. Right. Okay, thank you so much, sir, for your time. Thank you for answering the questions.
Thank you.
Thank you, sir. We have our next question from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you. My first question is, you know, regarding any update that you have on how the shadow coupling direction from CERC has played out so far, and any developments incrementally on proposal to implement market coupling?
Yeah. I mean, I would like to first clarify one thing about that order of CERC, dated sixth of February. In that order, CERC has made one thing very clear, that they did simulation studies for three months for January, February, March, that of 2023. And based on those simulation studies, they found that there is practically no merit in doing coupling of plain vanilla DAM market or RTM market, because one of the leading exchange has large market share, so coupling of three exchanges does not give any, really any benefit. So one part of that issue is addressing that order itself, that there is no advantage. Now, they have slightly gone ahead, I mean, with another alternative that let's explore if there is any advantage of coupling RTM market with the SCED market.
SCED is Security Constrained Economic Dispatch, which is operated by Grid India. So, I mean, since they thought that this is another option which can be explored, they have issued an order and directed NLDC to develop the software and do simulation studies for four months. The software has to be developed in two months' time. I think already three and a half months have passed, and, to the best of our knowledge, it is still work in progress. So thereafter, they will start taking data from the exchange, and they will have to, as per the order, do the simulation study, and every day put the data on the website so that the market participants can analyze that. So I think that process has not yet begun. So development of software takes a lot of time.
It has to be developed, it has to be tested, and then the simulation has to start. And then after the simulation, depending on whether there is any benefit in that kind of coupling or not, CERC will take a view whether that should be done or not. See, one is, benefit is one part of it. The roadmap to implement, that is second part of the problem, because the complications involved in that, that itself are many. See, one is that, you know, SCED, which is, which is being implemented by NLDC, this is done and among the power, the generators who have the power purchase agreements between them. All those generators are getting coal from the allocation route at the administered price. Their fixed charge is only assured by the beneficiaries. RTM market is the market where the generators, merchant generators, participate.
They don't have any PPA, they don't get any fixed charge. They have to recover everything from the market only if they buy coal from through the e-auction. So can you really couple these two different set of generators? This is a much bigger issue, which needs to be debated. So I'm sure all these questions will come subsequently. So this is just a simulation. This is a theoretical exercise which is being done.
And once the results are out of the simulation study, then all these issues also will have to be addressed. And financial settlement, that is another big challenge. Today, exchanges are doing the financial settlement of their buyer and seller. Tomorrow, all three exchanges and all these buyers and sellers under the PPA, you can imagine how complex that financial settlement is going to be. I think there are many more issues which will have to be addressed. What is the advantage out of that?
Yeah.
So I think, as of now, I don't see, in the near future anything happening, but it will depend on the first activity simulation. So let the simulation start, and let us see what the results are.
This is very clear. The second question is, could you give us a sense of how in FY 2024 your market share has panned out, in segments other than day-ahead market and RE, the RTM market, also including REC, segment as well? And what was the LDC volume in FY 2024 for the market and the market share that, you know, IEX had?
So I request Mr. Rohit Bajaj to respond to this question. Yeah. So, day ahead and RTM, as you're aware, it is 99.9% market share. Then there are other segments, which includes term ahead market and DSC. So in term ahead market, our market share was between, it was about 55%, and in DAC market it is close to 50%. So overall, if I leave aside DAM and RTM, on other electricity segment, it is above 50%, which is around 55% put together for the TAM and term ahead market. And for certificate market, this is close to 70%. And overall, if I talk about comprehensive market share, it is 84% for electricity and 83% overall, which includes certificates.
For LDC, what were the volumes in your market share?
LDC, we did 10 billion units for complete year.
You, what was the total volume for the market, in case?
I think it was almost about 20 billion units. Yeah. Close to 20 billion units.
Okay, it's roughly half. It has become quite big, you know, in this first full year. The next question is, if you look at the volume growth in Q4 versus the revenue growth that IEX has reported, there is, you know, divergence. So, concessions are being given in transaction fee, admission fee, and annual fee. Can you give some color around this, and is this likely to intensify?
No, I mean, in the electricity market, in the term ahead market, some incentives are being given, as per the industry practice, and, similarly is the case in case of green market also. That is why, the revenue is slightly lower with respect to the volume. And the practice is continuing, so not that in this quarter it has increased.
Okay. Last question is, IGX, you know, even though gas prices have come off, but, volumes have not really gone up on IGX in FY 2024 related to FY 2023. Is there any specific reason?
Yeah, in FY 2024, gas volumes were almost about 20% lower with respect to FY 2023. Number one, the gas prices have come down in the last 2-3 months. Earlier, though the gas price came down from $25 to $15, but it was still high. And domestic gas production has increased, and most of the domestic gas is sold to the through the auction routes. That don't come, significant quantity of that don't come on the exchange right now. So because of that, our volume share was slightly down. Volume was slightly down. But this year in the month of March, month of April, the volumes are picking up now, and we are seeing that the gas price has further come down to almost about $9-$10. So if this trend continues-
Sure.
gas will be affordable for the power sector also. And, if that starts happening, I'm sure exchange will be able to get better volume.
Sure. Thank you. I'll end the queue. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Senthil Kumar from Joindre Capital . Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. Am I audible?
Yes.
Sir, here I could see that there is a strong jump in trade receivables, INR 86 crore against INR 7 crore last year. What is the reason for that, sir?
Mr. Vineet, our CFO, will respond to this question. Mainly because if you look at the calendar, because the 29, 30, 31st banking operation, that's why the accumulation was there. That was the only reason, because 29 was a Good Friday, and 30, 30 was the banking operations were not there. So it will all the credits will settle on the next working day, only because of banking holiday.
Is that clear?
Hello? Is that okay?
Yes, sir, that's okay.
Thank you. That's it from me.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for the opportunity. Sir, my first question is, I wanted to understand, what is the expected volume growth that you are looking for FY 2025, 2026? You did mention that, for the market, you expect an 8% growth. So would we continue to see a much faster growth, for IEX in the next two years?
Yeah, I mean, 2024, 2025, we definitely expect better than what we did last year, on the volume growth, volume side also, and the profit side also. It's very difficult to give a number, but, I mean, if the demand in the country increases by 8%, we should be able to grow more than 15% each year.
So the reason I ask, at least for FY 25, we still have the tailwind of GNA implementation being done, only in October last year. So the full year benefit should accrue in FY 25. But, generally, what has been driving the market share has really shifted from long term to short term, and that was largely on account of lower power prices that we had used to see before FY 22, when the power prices used to be, under INR 3.5. But now on a consistent basis, over the last 2 years, we've seen that the power prices are hovering around 5 INR. So I would assume that, replacement of power would not be taking now, and that was the reason I was trying to understand. Can the volume grow at 15% despite the industry volume growing at 7%-8%?
Yeah. Replacement is, of course, not, I mean, not to the extent what was happening earlier, but still there are opportunities. During the daytime, our rate is almost about INR 3, INR 4.25 for 7-8 hours. So during that time, replacement opportunity is there. There are few months in a year where the night hour rates are also lower. But overall, the demand is growing, and what we are seeing is that, our volume growth is driven by the demand. And that is why I said, if the demand increases by 7%-8%, we'd, we expect a volume growth of more than 15% on the exchange platform. Because when the demand increases, you know, demand don't increase in the country uniformly.
So we find that the demand increase in few states is to the order of 15%-16%, and they, those states are big buyers. And then there is a surplus capacity available in other part of the country. And distribution companies these days, you know, since our rates are quite lucrative, INR 5, INR 5.15, INR 5.25, and they are able to make some additional gain by selling the power. So these days, they, earlier, they were scheduling less from the generator. Now they schedule full quantum and sell the power on the exchange platform. The sale by distribution companies also is almost about 50% of exchange platform. So this basically difference in the demand and supply prevailing in different parts of the country is also driving... is a good, big driver of the volume growth.
Understood, sir. Sir, if we see the trend for the month of April and May, we see that the RTM market is seeing a good growth in volume, especially in the month of May. But on the same hand, we are seeing DAM is seeing some kind of a decline. So is it that RTM is gaining because of the URAs that you were mentioning all the additional power of the long-term PPA coming in the real-time market that is driving growth? But the DAM market, is it the case because the election, SEBs have signed short-term PPAs, and that's the reason there is some impact on the DAM volume for this quarter?
You are right. And, for the month of April and May, particularly, many bilateral transactions were, have happened because states wanted to ensure availability of power because of the elections. And, most of the generation capacity has been tied up into the bilateral contracts. That is why the DAM volumes are lower. And in the RTM market, most of the URS power is coming. States also, on the real-time basis, whatever surplus is there, they are selling power. Demand is there, in any case, in the DAM also, in the RTM also. RTM, I think the volume, sale volumes have increased, the clearance is increased.
Right, sir. And sir, if you can clarify, this short-term bilateral markets contracts that have been signed, are they signed up to May, or is it June, July also being signed? Any sense that you can share?
Most of them have been signed for these two months.
Okay. Finally, sir, on the certificates, what is the expected demand, and are we seeing some volume coming even on the energy certificate side?
Energy Saving Certificates?
Yeah, Energy Saving Certificates.
So each side also, though the, as per the data available with us, the opportunity is not very significant, but, today it is, we are only, all the transactions are happening on the exchange, IEX platform only. So, Amit, any number on the real-time market?
No.
Not a significant number.
Significant number.
REC side, we are very bullish because there is a significant volume available on the sell side. Prices have come down to almost about INR 180, INR 190, and now many industries are looking towards meeting their RPO obligations and buying REC, and even state distribution companies also. So what I understand, that MNRE is also looking at this to ensure that there is a compliance by the states and the utilities generator, industries and utilities generators.
I understand. Perfect, thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, sir, and thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on, sir, can you please speak about the carbon trade market, which we're trying to launch? What is the status? When do you see it up and running?
Yeah. Carbon market, we wanted to start this market, but there are some uncertainties in this market at the moment. One is that, you know, there is a mandatory market which BEE is working on, and we thought of around launching the voluntary market. But subsequently, we understand that even the offset market, they, they intend to run the offset market also. So if that is the case, then there may not be significant volume in the voluntary carbon market, because the offset market is a voluntary market.
So I think, there is no clarity at the moment, how, which are the different, industries which will be there in the offset market, what is the scope for the voluntary market. We are working with the BEE also, and, maybe in due course of time, if there is a clarity and we see there is a still a good opportunity in the voluntary market, we will go ahead with that. But I think we will need another 5-6 months' time for that clarity to come.
Understood, sir. My second question is, sir, you spoke about number of new products you had in the call. Do you think any new products can be introduced in the next 12 months, especially in the electricity market?
Any new product, new products? Yeah, 11 months contract is something which we have filed in CERC. So we are today providing long-duration contracts up to 90 days, so we have filed for delivery up to 11 months also, and we are expecting, CERC order very shortly, because all hearings are complete. So once that happens, I think that is another, good product, and that will enable us, that will enable shifting of volume from bilateral market on the pre platform on the exchange platform.
My last question is on the staff paper, which CERC published recently on rationalization of bidding. What kind of impact do you see on the market because of this staff paper? How will it... In case, let's say, the CERC recommends what it is proposing in the staff paper.
We don't see any impact of that. In fact, if you analyze the price quoted by the generators on the exchange platform, it is based on the marginal cost basis only. It is the buyers, because of the high demand, the prices are discovered in the range of INR 9-INR 10. During daytime, when the supply is high, the prices are just about INR 3.15. So during that time, generators are quoting based on the marginal cost. And we did this analysis for the past data, and we find that generators normally are quoting within the range which has been given by CERC. So that was the practice, and that will continue with the practice in future also. We don't see any impact of that.
Okay.
In fact, in the discussion paper, this concept has been advocated for DAM and RTM markets, but we feel that this concept is equally applicable for other segments of the market also. If it is extended to other segments of the market, where the price today is very high in comparison to the DAM market, if it is extended there, then definitely the volume will shift to the DAM market.
Yes, sir. One more question, sir. Excuse me, sir. The open access market has been declining for us for a long time. Is something which we can do to convince the stakeholders so that they could be, you know, slightly high? We in this market could see a growth in the future?
See, open access market has reduced because of the increase in price, increase in clearing price. So it is not, I mean, along with the cross-subsidy and open access charges, the landed cost is becoming higher, more than the procurement cost there. We are definitely working with the state regulatory commission to cut down the cross-subsidy charges, access charges, so that industry can purchase power on competitive price. That activity, our business development group is continuously working on that. But today, there is enough demand coming from distribution company itself, so I don't think that has an impact on the volume growth. Earlier, the volume growth was driven by the open access consumers also. Today, the demand from distribution company itself is quite high.
Understood, sir. Thank you, sir. Thank you and all the best, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Nitin Nagania from Bernstein. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for taking my question. I just had one question. So as was being discussed earlier, the prices for REC certificates have fallen from INR 1,000 a year back to INR 180 now, or in a way, INR 1 to INR 0.18 now. So what impact has it had on the transaction charges? If you give us some sense on the transaction charges we are receiving for this eighteen paisa buyer and seller combined.
Nitin, our transaction fees on electricity was 2 paisa per unit on other side, when the rate is INR 2 or INR 20. Earlier the cap was INR 20. Even when the price was INR 20, we used to charge the same thing.... On REC side also, when the REC rates were INR 3,500, at that time also we were charging only this fees. So this fees is per certificate. So as of now, I mean, let's see, if the price continues in the range of INR 170, INR 180, INR 190 for a long time, we will review that. But otherwise, I don't think it needs any correction for this short term issue.
Understood, sir. So it continues to be in the same range as it was earlier?
Yeah, as of now, yes.
Understood. All right. Okay. That's the only question I have.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Santhosh, a shareholder. Please go ahead.
Hi, good afternoon, sir. Thank you for good set of numbers the last quarter. I have one question, regarding the, so how do you see, in the medium term to long term, the breakup of revenue between IEX, IGX, and ICX? You can kind of give some colors around that, that clearly help us.
Very difficult question. See, I can only tell you that the IEX volume will continue to increase because demand of the country, the power consumption in the country is increasing at a rate of 7%-8%. We also expect to grow with almost about 15%-20% kind of numbers. That is our expectation. And we feel that, yes, the policy regulatory environment is also very conducive for development of market, and we will definitely get benefit of that. The high renewable happening, that is also good for the market. As far as gas exchange is concerned, again, in the gas market also, the vision of the government of India is to increase gas consumption. That is a cleaner fuel. And, today our gas consumption in the country is almost about 6% of the total energy bucket.
They want to make it 15% in, by 2030. Lot many LNG terminals are coming now, the western, southern, east, and south coast. I mean, today, LNG terminal capacity is 45 million tons. It is going to be expanded to 75 million tons in the next 2 years' time. Pipeline network, lot of investment is being done in the pipeline network, southern and eastern part of the country and northeastern part of the country is getting connected now. So we are going to have a strong gas grid in the country. And I'm sure all these... See, lot of investment is being done in setting up the terminals and the pipeline, and that is with the view that, yes, gas consumption in the country has to go up. It is going to go up. Gas prices are coming down.
So I'm sure if the consumption in the country increases, volumes on the gas exchange also will increase. Very difficult to make an estimate of that as of now, but we feel gas exchange volumes definitely should increase at a rate of at least 30%-40%, because gas exchange is in the nascent stage now. And carbon exchange, as I told you, I will not like to make any estimate on that, because there is no clarity from the policy side, from the government side also, whether it's a voluntary market, voluntary carbon is also will be traded under the mandatory market. So once we get that clarity, then we'll be able to estimate and tell you about that.
Sure. So when is GIFT ICX in GIFT City going to be operational, sir?
Again, you know, see, this is again linked with that policy decision only, because-
Okay.
On GIFT City, on GIFT City, carbon credit has to be traded as a commodity, and it is not there in the list of the commodities to be traded in the GIFT City. They have written to Ministry of Finance for the approval of carbon credits as a commodity to be traded there. Ministry of Finance-
Okay.
has sought their clarification from Ministry of Power, that whether all these voluntary carbon credits are going to be traded by them under the scheme of the, carbon credits trading scheme, or they will be available for trading on the GIFT City. I think they're yet to decide on that.
Okay. Thank you, sir. Thank you for all your insights.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Rajesh Mandal Agarwal from Rajesh Mandal and Company. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you, sir, for the good opportunity, and good evening. My question was related to ICX only, and I think you have already discussed it. I hope we do not have any transition in ICX up till now. Am I correct, sir?
Yeah, as of now, nothing.
Okay. Okay. Sir, one small suggestion is like that, in our presentation, we should mention at least one line regarding this, that we don't have any transaction till now in ICX.
Okay. I mean, we have not, we have not launched ICX so far. Since we have not launched it, there is no mention about that.
Actually, sir, from the presentation, a simple investor cannot understand this, that we do not have any transition in ICX up till now. We have already mentioned that we have owned one subsidiary, ICX, in December 2022, and we are silent about this transition here.
I'll request my colleague, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, to respond to this.
So ICX is only the, the new is consolidated because we mainly report on the IEX financials, because consolidation rate is not there, and because it's a very insignificant number, so segment reporting is not there. That's why we are not reporting it.
But just to mention that, you know, revenue, if you look at the, it can be easily identified from the standalone and consolidated financials regarding the revenue, if there is any. But as and when the situation rises, we'll see how we can put up in the investor presentation. We take your suggestion, and we'll look at it. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Viraj from Jupiter Financials. Please go ahead.
Thank you for the opportunity, and good afternoon, sir. So my question is, first you talked about 15%-20% growth because of so many things happening, EV, energy transition. So, in the electricity market, so what average growth will we be clocking? Will be 8% growth in electricity market, so would we be clocking 20% growth in terms of top line from now on?
Can you repeat the question, please?
You talked about that there's 8% growth in the electricity market because of so many factors. So at what rate our top line would be growing because of such a huge momentum, energy transition happening, EV cars, you know, renewables, all this coming in. So just your general sense on how will we grow? That is question number one.
See, let me tell you one thing, that energy demand in the country is going to grow, and it is expected that it will grow at least by a number of 6%-7%. Optimistic is about 8%, but 6%-7% is definitely which will happen. And we have seen in the past, our volumes grow by almost 2.5-3 times of the demand increase. So, my estimate is that if the demand increases by 7%-8%, our volumes should increase by at least 20%. And a lot of transition, energy transition activities are happening that should further add to the volume growth.
Would that even imply increasing, bettering our margins too, with increase in volume? Or margins would be same or subdued?
Margins grow. In case of exchange business, since other costs are fixed costs, technically, margins would improve. I mean, as it is, we are operating at a pretty high margin of almost about 86%-87%, so.
Right. Okay, and sir, how are we placed against our competitors right now, as we speak? And suppose if coupling comes, what will be the impact on our margins? Will margins become half? What will be the worst impact on the margins be?
I think, there's no point in talking about if coupling happens. I think it is a long way to go, many more years for that to happen, because as I told you, it is only a theoretical exercise, a research work which is happening, and these kind of activities do happen in the sector. If you recall, in 2018 also, a paper came about MBED, Market-Based Economic Dispatch, and there were so many discussions around that. Consultants were appointed, detailed studies were done, directions were given to CERC to implement from April 1, 2022.
Nothing happened on that. So I think these are all... Well, see, market development happens only after doing research and, all these activities. So this is also one such activity. Let them do this activity. Let them find out what is the benefit of this, how to implement this. Once all those things are done, then the regulations will have to be made, software will have to be developed. So it is going to take a long time, and no point in thinking about that today and worrying about that. I'm very sure that nothing is going to happen in the next couple of years.
Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all participants in the conference, please limit your questions to strictly two questions per participant. Should you have a follow-up question, we request you to rejoin the queue. We have our next question from the line of Ketan Jain from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yes. Hi, good afternoon, sir. So what is your revenue... Sorry, what is your volume growth guidance for REC segment and green segment for FY 25?
Our projections?
No.
So we total achieved 110 BUs for the whole year, out of which around 102 is from the electricity and around 8 BUs from the renewable energy certificates combined.
No, I'm asking for FY 25, what is your expectation volume growth for REC segment and green segment?
REC segment, we are expecting almost about 25%-30% growth, and a growth of approximately-
From green segment, sir?
Green segment, separately it is very difficult to make estimates, but still 50% kind of volume growth should happen in the green market, because green market volume this year was slightly on the lower side. So in 2024-2025, 50% growth should happen in the green market also. Okay.
Long duration, we'll be able to maintain 10 BU?
There should be significant increase in that.
Increase in that.
Yes.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
It is 1.2 BU, this year will be 10 BU, so we are definitely expecting a much higher number. Yes.
Okay. And how much higher, sir? I mean, how much higher? How long can the duration go up to?
Almost about 15 BU is our expected, sir.
Okay. Okay. Thank you.
Thank you. We have our next question from the line of Lavanya Tottala from UBS. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the opportunity. Just one question from my side here. So on the long duration, just follow-up to the earlier question. So you said 10 BU and the market is 20 BU. Is it like we already reached 50% market share in that particular space? And 15 expectation for by 2025, we expect further gain in this space. Is that right understanding?
Yes, you are right. See, in case of bilateral transactions, in case of this long duration contract, these are mostly bilateral transactions. Bilateral transactions happen on all three exchanges, and significant volume also happen on the DEEP platform . Our USP is the collective transaction, where we have major trade, major market share, close to 99%+. So we continue to work in the market to have more transactions in the DAM and RTM market. But we are also active in the LDC market.
Got it. So here, when we say this 20 BU, you are considering bilateral, with, I mean, through discoms, themselves and through, traders, both, both are considered in this 20 BU, right?
Yeah, this 20 BU, what has happened last year is sold by generators and bought by the distribution companies through the exchange, through the exchanges.
Okay, it is through the exchanges. We are not considering the-
No, no, I'm not considering the deep, DEEP volume here.
Okay. Okay, got it. Thank you, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be the last question for today, and I would now like to hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today's call. Throughout this fiscal, we've witnessed a number of efforts announced by the government and regulators to create a favorable policy and regulatory framework for development of our market in the country. We remain committed to contributing to the development of a sustainable and efficient energy future, and have a wonderful evening. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes today's-