Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Indian Energy Exchange Q3 FY25 results conference call. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr . Rohan Gheewala. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Sagar. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Axis Capital, I'm pleased to welcome you all for the IEX Q3 FY25 earnings conference call. We have with us the management team of IEX, which is represented by Mr. S. N. Goel, the Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Joint Managing Director, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations, New Product Initiatives and Exchange Technology, and Ms. Aparna Garg, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. We will begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Rohit Bajaj, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Good afternoon, everyone. Am I audible?
Yes, sir, you're audible loud and clear.
Thank you. Good afternoon, everyone. I welcome you all to the IEX earnings call for Q3 FY25. With me today on this call are Mr. Satyanarayan Goel, CMD IEX; Mr. Vineet Harlalka, our CFO and Company Secretary; Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations, New Product Initiatives and Exchange Technology; Ms. Aparna Garg, Head of Investor Relations and Communications; and Mr. Aditya Wali. Friends, the last quarter was a challenging one for the Indian economy. Economic growth in Q2 experienced a dip on account of weaker private consumption and slowed to 5.4% after more than two years of sustained accelerated growth. Subsequently, the RBI has also revised India's GDP growth forecast for FY25 from 7.2%- 6.6%. However, based on high-frequency indicators of economic activity, RBI expects a recovery in Q3 FY25 from the previous quarter's slowdown driven by increased private consumption.
On the power sector front, electricity demand at 393 BUs during the third quarter was higher by 3% YOY, better than the previous quarter's muted 0.5% growth. Power demand in the country for the first nine months of FY25 has been higher by 5% over the same period last year. The Ministry of Power has continued to maintain its focus on monitoring capacity addition and strengthening overall power infrastructure. Already, 28 GW of thermal capacity is under construction, and about 40 GW is under planning and tendering stage. In addition, 40-50 GW of renewable capacity is to be added every year till 2030. This additional capacity is expected to increase sell-side liquidity on the exchanges in the coming years. On the fuel side, there has been ample availability of coal this fiscal.
At 726 million tons of coal production for the first nine-month period from April to December FY25 has been higher by 6.1% compared with the same period last fiscal. Coal is available at a nominal premium of 10%-20% under the SHAKTI B(viii) option, and coal inventory today stands at a healthy 19 days. Imported coal prices in Q3 have also been competitive at $50 per ton. To meet the growing demand for power, MOP also made adequate provisions to ensure availability for the winter months by extending Section 11 Directive to imported coal-based power plants to operate at full capacity up to 28 February 2025. These imported coal-based assets should support liquidity on the exchanges. Gas prices at $14 per MMBtu, however, have seen a slight uptick in Q3 compared with $12 per MMBtu in Q2 due to the onset of winters and continued geopolitical issues.
Adequate availability of fuel in this quarter led to higher liquidity on the exchange platform, as sell quantum increased by 62% on YOY basis, leading to the softening of the prices. For Q3 FY25, prices in the day-ahead market averaged at INR 3.71 per unit, a decline of nearly 26% on year-on-year basis. As prices remain competitive, discoms and commercial and industrial consumers continue to have an opportunity to meet their demand at competitive prices and optimize their power procurement costs. With these trends, volume growth is expected to continue going forward. Let us now talk about important regulatory updates and policy initiatives during the quarter that help the deepening of the power markets. Under the amendments to Late Payment Surcharge (LPSC) rules, generating stations which have long-term PPA can now offer unrequisitioned power in the day-ahead market as well as the real-time market segments.
Recent amendments in the LPSC procedures have now also brought the state government-owned generating stations under its mandate, mandating them to offer URS power on the exchange platform. This is expected to further increase liquidity on the exchanges. The Deviation Settlement Mechanism (DSM regulation 2024) is a work in progress towards renewable integration and grid stability. Under the proposed amendments, deviation charges are again linked to grid frequency. With regards to solar and wind generators, the deviation percentage allowed for RE has been narrowed to 10%. This is expected to help increase RTM volumes at exchanges. With regards to the carbon market, CERC issued a draft procedure for trading of carbon credit certificates for both obligated as well as non-obligated entities through power exchanges. This will result in the trading of carbon credit certificates on IEX in the near future. IEX business performance during Q3 FY25 has been robust.
At 30.5 billion units, electricity volumes for the quarter were 16% higher on a year-on-year basis. For the first nine months of FY25, electricity volume at 89 billion units was higher by 19% YOY basis. In Q3, a total of 26.5 lakh renewable energy certificates were traded, a jump of 31% over the same quarter last fiscal. REC trading volume touched 110.6 lakh certificates for the first nine months of FY25, a rise of 158% over the same period in FY24. The RTM segment continues to demonstrate strong growth. For Q3 FY25, RTM volumes were higher by 30% YOY at nearly 9.3 billion units, showcasing its critical role in helping discoms as well as open-access consumers efficiently manage their short-term electricity requirements. For the first nine months in FY25, 29.3 billion units were traded in this segment, a growth of 29% year-on-year basis.
RTM's ability to offer flexibility and immediate responsiveness highlights the opportunity to efficiently integrate renewables with the grid. With regards to the green market in Q3 FY25, volume rose over 300% to nearly 2.5 billion units compared with Q3 FY24. While we continue to await approval from CERC for our long-duration contracts of up to 11 months, a hearing of our petition on the green RTM segment was held recently by the CERC. As per the Commission's direction, we have sought public comments on our proposal. Green RTM would provide an opportunity for RE sellers to avail price premium over conventional power and allow buyers to avail green attributes of electricity. This segment shall also help reduce deviation exposure due to weather events by providing an avenue to trade green power one hour in advance. Let me now summarize the financial performance of the company in this quarter.
On a consolidated basis, revenue for the company grew 13.7% on a year-on-year basis in Q3 FY25, increasing to INR 160.5 crores from INR 141.2 crores in Q3 FY24. Consolidated PAT increased by 16.9%, rising to INR 107.3 crores in Q3 of FY25 compared with INR 91.8 crores in Q3 of FY24. For fiscal year 2025, the Board of Directors of the company announced an interim dividend of INR 1.50, equivalent to 150% of the face value of equity shares. IGX traded volume of 162 lakh MMBTU for Q3 FY25 compared with 84 lakh MMBTU traded in Q3 last fiscal. In the first nine months of FY25, IGX traded volumes of 398 lakh MMBTU, higher by 24% over the same period in FY24. The profit after-tax for IGX for Q3 FY25 came in at INR 8.3 crores compared with INR 7.4 crores in Q3 FY24.
For the first nine months of FY25, IGX recorded a PAT of INR 22 crores, higher by 18% compared with the same period last fiscal. Hence, development of new market models in the form of battery storage arbitrage, Firm and Dispatchable Renewable Energy FDRE, or virtual power purchase agreement (VPPAs) is slated to be the future driver of India's power market, eventually pressing a successful energy transition. In a recent SECI tender, the price of INR 3.52 per kilowatt was discovered for a 2,000 megawatt solar with 1,000 megawatt or 4,000 megawatt hour energy storage requiring four-hour discharge for one cycle a day. Storage prices are already competitive to make a promising case for market development and provide enough arbitrage to make it commercially viable. Rates under the VGF scheme have also declined. Visibly, battery storage remains poised to improve liquidity during non-solar hours and help meet the power demand.
Further, the government recently reiterated its plan for setting up India's first coal exchange in the calendar year 2025, details of which are being worked out. The draft note for the cabinet for setting up a coal exchange has already been circulated for inter-ministerial consultations. The exchange is expected to work under the supervision of the Coal Controller's Organization. With the CEA forecast of peak power demand of 458 GW by 2032, power consumption growth will continue to drive exchange volume growth. The government's effort to facilitate the path of energy transition continually supports market development. As India marches towards achieving its net zero targets, there is bound to be a growing role of power exchanges in the country's energy landscape, and IEX shall continue to be part of this journey. Thank you, and now we can move towards questions and answers.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touch-tone phone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. Our first question comes from Mayuresh M., individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much for giving me this opportunity. Am I audible? Do you hear me well?
Yes, you're audible.
Okay. First of all, thank you for giving me this opportunity and taking my questions, and congratulations for the quarterly results. I would just like to know the current.
There is some disruption in the voicemail.
Sorry, just one moment, sir. Yes, Mayuresh sir, please go ahead.
Okay. My question was, what is the current revenue breakdown for IEX, IGX, ICX, and coal trading in terms of numbers and in terms of percentages?
Yeah. I'll request Mr. Vineet Harlalka our CFO to respond to this.
So if you look at the overall numbers for the IEX, the IEX standalone PAT was at INR 103 crores, which was higher by 15.5% on a year-on-year basis, quarterly basis. And the consolidated PAT was INR 107 crores, which was almost 17% higher than the previous year. The IGX standalone PAT for the quarter was INR 8.3 crores, which was higher by 13% in the corresponding period for the previous year, quarter for the previous year. And ICX, during this quarter, made a profit of INR 20 lakh against a loss of INR 1 crore during the quarter three of financial year 2024.
How about coal trading?
Coal trading, nothing has happened. Coal exchange is still on paper, and only after the approval by the government, they will decide who will do, when it will start. I think nothing, no clarity on that.
Okay. All right. Understood. And what is the expected growth or what are the expected revenues for the next one or two years, FY26 and FY27, as a whole, and also for the subcompanies like IGX, ICX, and IEX?
Yeah. As far as IEX is concerned, it is difficult to make any projections. I mean, since it is a technology platform, it all depends on growth in demand and supply. But looking at what we have achieved in the last four or five years, I think a number of 15%-20% growth is definitely achievable. In case of gas exchange, at present, it's a challenging business environment because gas prices are very high. These are in the range of $14-$15. And at these rates, gas affordability is not there in India. So gas import, I mean, gas consumption is not increasing at a rate at which it was expected to increase. But it is expected that in 2026-2027, a lot many LNG terminals which are under construction in the countries where the gas is available.
That will increase the gas supply in the world. The gas prices are expected then to come down to almost about $8-$9. If that happens, I'm sure gas consumption in India will increase, and gas exchange will also see a jump in the volume growth. It is difficult to make any projections at this stage now.
Yes, yes. I understand that. And for IEX, considering the fact that the government is promoting a lot of investment in new renewable technologies like wind and solar energy, and we have made a lot of progress in the past three years, and also we will be making a lot of progress in the coming years in terms of installations and capacity, do you think that would help IEX to increase its volumes by more than 15% maybe after two, three years when this capacity will come into?
Yeah, that's your definition. Because what we have seen that when there is a good supply, the clearing price on the exchange reduces. And if the clearing price reduces, it provides opportunity to distribution companies to optimize their power requirement cost and also to industrial consumers to optimize their cost. So definitely, the volume will increase further. But again, it's difficult to make projections for the future growth.
Understood. So the profitability, I would say, is inversely proportional to the cost. So, or you can say, the volumes are inversely proportional to the cost. If the cost of electricity or gas it reduces, the volumes will increase as the companies will try to buy them from exchanges rather than their normal contracts which they have signed for higher cost, right?
Yes. You're right.
Okay. But if the demand also increases with the supply, then maybe this might not be the thing that we are expecting the cost to reduce. It may not happen.
See, when demand increases and supply don't increase, conventional supply increase don't happen, then the rate increases. And that puts a lot of pressure on the distribution companies. So it is good when both demand and supply increase. Then with real estate jumping, the volume increases.
Yeah. Okay. Thank you. Quite understood. Thank you very much for answering my questions, and good luck.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. My first question is, you've had very strong volume growth on the G-DAM, day-ahead market, RTM. Has that been accompanied with an overall increase in market share also as of nine-month FY25? If you could give us the data.
In the electricity segment, we are maintaining a market share of around 83%-84%. And that was the trend last year also. And this year also, we are maintaining the market share at the same level.
Okay, and what would be your market share in the REC segment?
REC segment, I think the market share is about 60%-65%. But then REC, see, REC is not counted as far as the market share is concerned. REC is done twice in a month. And the revenue stream also for REC is we have reduced the fees. So we quote now these days, electricity market is basically the main market as far as the market share is concerned. In any case, in electricity, the market share is 84.5%, and in REC, it is about 60%.
84.5% overall. Okay. And within that, for the TAM, including DAM, your market share is still around 40% or so?
Yeah. I mean, RTM and TAM is basically 100%. And the rest of the product, it is about 35%.
The second question is, in opening remarks, it was mentioned about the new products and the regulatory developments. So this trade-up to 11 months for TAM, how soon can this materialize? And similarly, on the green RTM front, what is the stage of progress? So if you could sort of break up the LPSC rules, green RTM, and TAM, and the timelines over which you expect these to materialize, and the volume uptake they can translate into.
11-month contract hearings are complete. Order is reserved. So it depends on CERC, but then the hearings were completed a couple of months back. So we are waiting their order. As far as volume in the 11-month contract is concerned, again, it is difficult to say because we already have three-month contracts, and distribution companies normally purchase power on seasonal basis. Only thing is there are few distribution companies who purchase power maybe for the month of June to September, maybe three, four, five months in advance. So maybe that kind of opportunity, if 11-month contracts are approved, we can get that opportunity also on the exchange platform. So that may not be very significant, but then we are waiting CERC order approval on that. RTM, the petition was admitted. We have posted the petition on the website for public comments.
Thereafter, we will respond to CERC also on those comments, and CERC will then have a hearing. It will take some time, maybe a couple of months, three, four months it will take.
Okay, and in LDC right now, what kind of volumes have you seen in the nine-month period, and what has been IEX share?
Our volumes, total volumes for all the three exchanges in the LDC has been about 18 billion units, and our share is about 38% in that.
18 billion units. Because this number, I think, was just 5.2 billion units as of first half. So there has been a big uptake in LDC in third quarter?
This number is Term-Ahead Market and G-TAM taken together.
Okay.
This is the TAM segment. TAM segment number is.
5.8 must be for IEX.
Yes, yes, yes. It's for IEX.
8.3 is for the market.
For the market.
Together.
For IEX alone, this number is 7.1 billion.
Okay. Just one last question on update on how, if at all, Market Coupling is steady and etc., events are panning out?
No update. CERC had issued order in the month of February for simulation of the different market segments and submit a report with CERC. Report is awaited.
So that shadow pilot study, etc., is done or?
No, shadow pilot report is awaited, so only when they submit the report, CERC will take a view thereafter.
So in terms of timeline, you think that this can keep getting delayed for how long?
This was to be submitted in the month of July, and we are now in the month of January of next year. So already six months are over. So let's see.
Okay. Thank you. Thank you so much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, in order to ensure that the management is able to address questions from all the participants in the conference, please restrict your questions to two at a time. You may join back the queue for follow-up questions. Our next question comes from Rushabh Shah from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the opportunity. Am I audible?
Hello.
I'm having a bit muffled, sir.
Yeah. Am I audible now?
This is much better. Please go ahead.
Yeah. So my question is, one of the calls you mentioned that even if coupling happens, you will be able to defend it and defend the market share. Could you please explain in detail how would you do that? What measure will you take to defend your share?
How will we defend our share?
No, no. Your question is not clear. Can you repeat the question?
In one of the calls, you mentioned that even if the coupling happens, you will be able to defend your market share. So can you explain in detail?
I don't think we have ever said that in case of coupling, we will be able to maintain the market share. What we are always only saying is that even in case of coupling, we are doing a lot of customer-centric activities to ensure customer loyalty, and we should be able to retain a significant market share.
Okay. Okay, so next question is, as you said that on the sales side, you have thermal generators who are registered with you. So what do you do for engaging more and more customers on the platform? Are there any incentives you offer for both buy side as well as sales side?
Getting customers on the exchange platform today, we have all distribution companies are registered with us. All large generators, captive generators, they're all registered with us. Renewable generators, they're all registered with us. So there is hardly any generator in the market who is not registered with us. We have practically more than 400 generators who are registered with us. So all major sector participants are already registered.
Okay. So practically basically 90%-95% of all of them are registered with IEX.
Yes, yes, yes. We are participating in the market also.
Yes. Right. Also, my last question is the REC market in India, which is a compliance market. So which type of companies have to take these certificates for compliance? And is it important for them to purchase these certificates?
See, one is that distribution companies have to meet their RPO obligations, which is specified by the Government of India and the state regulators. So there are many states who do not have renewable power with them, so they purchase RECs to meet their RPO obligation. Then there are industrial consumers who have captive generation capacity. So they have to also meet the RPO obligation. So they also purchase certificates. There are many steel plants, cement industries, aluminum industries who have large captive generation capacities with them. So they also purchase RECs. Then there are many open access consumers who buy power from the market. So they also have to meet the RPO obligation, and they also purchase the certificates.
My last question is, what is your vision for IEX in the next five years? And what are the top three priorities for the next four to five years?
Can you repeat the question, please?
So what is your vision for IEX in the next 4-5 years? And your top three priorities for the next four to five years?
My vision is to provide a robust, reliable technology platform so that all market participants can do trading through this, and the numbers will depend on the demand and supply growth in the country. Because demand growth is not dependent. That is not something which we can create. It is a function of demand and supply, and we will not like to give any projections on the numbers.
No, sir. I don't want the projections. Nothing on the projections. Just your vision and the priorities for you.
Vision I told, I mean, a growth of 20% is something which we are targeting.
Okay. Okay. Thank you so much. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Yashodhan Nerurkar from Ionic Wealth. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi. Thank you for the opportunity. So one question that I had was in terms of the contract for differences. So most of the PPAs which are coming in the renewable space, either there's a delay from the.
Voice is not clear. Can you put the question slightly slowly?
Just a second. Hello. Is it better now?
Yeah, yeah. Better now.
Yeah. So what I was saying is, I was asking in terms of your volume. So something like a Contract for Differences, would that make a big difference in terms of increasing the volumes? At least in the renewable space where we are seeing most of the PPAs, there's a delay in signing by the discoms because the prices are continuously dropping. So would CFD be the ideal solution for you to boost the volume?
We are working on this with the government and the renewable generators, but so far, they are not willing to set up the capacity without the PPA. Because one of the problems they are facing is that the banks are not willing to lend without the PPA. But definitely, there are alternate mode of transactions which are being worked out, like virtual PPAs. Some of the MNCs are working on that also, and government is also thinking about that, so that will definitely bring more liquidity in the market and should give a boost to the volume.
So at least there's some thought given to it in terms of increasing the liquidity, at least in the renewable space, to increase the adoption of it. So that's the whole thought process behind it.
Correct.
And secondly, I just wanted to understand. So most of the solar parks that we are seeing currently, I mean, it is suggested that it should come along with a battery park, like a storage battery. So does that reduce the variability of the energy demand? Because I think there's this concept of net metering where post sunset as the demand certainly that's when most of the power is traded in the short-term power market. So with battery storage coming into picture on a larger scale, would that variability be reduced? And does that reduce the volumes and the exchanges?
Wherever battery is coming, that battery, most of the generators are setting up additional capacity for charging the battery and supplying that additional power in the remaining hours. So battery will ensure availability of larger power during the non-solar hours also. And that is good for the market.
Okay, so that extra power which is getting generated through, I mean, dispatched through the battery, even that could be a part of the short-term power market through the exchanges.
You are right.
Okay. Okay. Perfect. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Bharanidhar from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good afternoon. Am I audible?
Yes, please.
Yeah. Okay. So my first question is on sustainability of this growth we have seen in this nine-month period for FY25. We have, of course, seen 16%-17% electricity volume growth when the market has grown at 5%. And my first question is, what proportion of this renewable growth or extra growth over and above the country's growth is due to this price drop?
The demand growth in the country has been in the first nine months 5%, precisely 4.8%. And our electricity volume growth has been 19%. And though there is no direct correlation between the demand growth and our electricity growth, but based on the last 10 years' data, we find there is a correlation of about 2.5- 3 times. So 5% growth in demand should give a demand volume growth of 15% on the exchange platform. But this year, volume growth was better because supply side, there was a lot of improvement, and coal prices also were low. Imported coal prices were also low. And Government of India also took many initiatives to ensure availability of power. So as a result of all these things, our clearing price also reduced. And that resulted in extra volume on the exchange platform.
Okay. Understood. So any idea of the growth, if it were not for the price drop, it would have been only this much, anything like that? Meaning.
It is very difficult to say.
Okay. Understood.
Yeah, difficult to say.
Got it.
Yeah, the corollary question to that is that do you expect this growth to sustain in FY26 because prices have dropped to 3.5, and then we may not see growth over and above the base power demand of 5%-6% in 2026? Or if it is going to be again 15%, why would that be again on a base of this year? See, if Indian economy has to grow at a rate of 7%-8%, then power demand in the country has to definitely grow at a rate of 6%-7%. And if that happens, we are quite confident that we will be able to achieve a growth of 15%-20%.
Perfect. And how much was the open access customer as a proportion in this first nine months? It should have increased compared to last year.
Yeah. Open access purchases were about 13%, and distribution company purchases were about 87%.
Okay. And last year, it must have been very less, right?
Pardon?
Last year, it must have been very less.
Yes. Last year, prices were higher, so the number was lower.
My last question is to just complete a loop on the Market Coupling discussion. Now, you had, of course, mentioned that we are awaiting the Shadow Pilot study. But exactly where is the process in right now? Is the software ready? Have the testing or simulation started? Have the exchanges started giving the data for the simulation?
We have been giving the data from the last one year. Grid India is doing the simulation. So we do not know when the report will be submitted. I think Grid India, when, once the software is developed, they will have to test the software also. Only after that, they will do the simulation and then submit the report to CERC.
Okay. All the best.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir. And congratulations on a good set of numbers. So my first question is basically if we see the volume growth in the quarter, and I'm talking about sequential growth, we see that the DAM segment has seen a 17% growth on a QOQ basis, while RTM has seen a 13% decline. Now, is there any particular reason why we have seen a decline in the RTM because that has been structurally growing quarter after quarter? And this quarter, we are seeing this anomaly.
See, what happens is, in case of RTM, energy mix also plays a very important role. So when we are comparing Q3 vis-à-vis Q2, Q2 is the time when we have lots of wind generation in the country, lots of hydro generation in the country, and overall renewable proportion is very high. More the renewable proportion, more is the intermittency. So these months, normally you will find Q2, particularly starting from May going up to September, October, these are the times when generally there is a historical data also available where you can see that real-time market numbers are much, much better during these months. They are very high. And particularly in Q3 quarter, when the overall renewable proportion is so low, we see there is some drop in the renewable side on the RTM side.
But if we look at collectively both RTM as well as G-DAM market, then you will see that collective segment overall has grown.
Right, sir. Right. And secondly, sir, if we talk about the DAM segment per se, because you have seen an overall decline in the clearing prices, and I think these are at a two-and-a-half-year low, is there a way to quantify what would be the replacement demand that you have seen in this quarter?
Replacement demand is difficult to quantify, that. But we have seen active participation of distribution companies. And what happens when the prices are low, distribution companies don't get into bilateral contract. And that demand comes to the market. So I think we have not quantified that, and it's also difficult to do that. If we compare what was the bilateral transactions last year and what is the bilateral transactions this year, what is the difference in that? Maybe something we can work out from that way. But otherwise, what we find is definitely that purchase by distribution companies has increased. It has increased because of the demand growth and also because the prices were low.
Right, sir. And sir, one final one. All the new opportunities that you mentioned, be it your energy storage solution or from dispatch RE or even the virtual PPA, have any of these started to contribute on the exchange volume? Or is there any expectation as to how much can come through these different opportunities in FY26?
Virtual PPAs, what we understand is that there are two MNCs with whom there are virtual PPAs. So maybe that capacity, what is the capacity? Maybe you can respond to this question.
Yeah. As per our estimate, we are getting close to 300-400 megawatts already on our platform, which is actually coming from VPPA thing. There are certain VPPAs which are there in place, and they have this generation during the solar hours, and they are selling it. As we have done some more assessment internal where we are seeing that, let's say by end of this fiscal, we are expecting up to 2 GW of total renewable sell potential which will be there and which has potential to participate in our spot markets. This would be not only VPPA, it would be some merchant capacity also.
This 2 GW is just the virtual PPAs, or it's including your energy storage?
I'm talking about total renewable capacity. This would include virtual PPA also, and this will also be there would also be certain merchant plants, certain disputed PPA plants, everywhere where they are not supplying under long-term PPA, this would be the total thing that we are expecting by year-end.
In addition to what we did this year.
Understood. Thank you so much, sir, and all the very best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Shaleen Kumar from UBS. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Congrats on the good set of numbers, sir. I know you have kind of answered this question, but just again, I want to pick your thought process here. Sir, on the long duration side, there is some update as well. So two parts to it. One, should we consider that on the green side, if there's a kind of a green we have received a positive signal from CERC, it's an indication that things should move swiftly on the long duration as well. And if that happens, what's your best guess? I'm looking for the guess for estimate that this could happen in what time frame? Both the things.
As you rightly said, there are two things. One is green real-time market. Second is long duration contracts up to 11 months. Green real-time market, as Mr. Goel has just explained, the first hearing has happened, petition has been admitted, consultation process has started. Our expectation is, let's say, next two to three months' time, we should get something positive from the CERC, then we would be in a position to launch this. As far as longer duration contract is concerned, this hearing got completed about eight, nine months back. We are awaiting this. If you ask me to guess, again, I would say three, four months, we should be able to launch that as well.
Got it. So most likely in three to four months, we will be able to launch this. And this will roughly, if I'm understanding right, roughly open up almost 40 billion units market for us?
Absolutely. So if we go by last year's numbers, it is total potential that exists is about 40 billion units. And in a phased manner, exchanges should be able to capture that.
Right. Got it, sir. Got it. Sir, I'd also like to touch base on one more question over here, right, which everybody's again been discussing about. But again, I want to go a little deeper on the coupling side, right, and like to have a little debate here. So coupling was a part of your, I think, what came or introduced along with MBED, right? Now, while we are talking about coupling, why we are not talking about MBED? That's one point. Is it coming up in any of your discussion? Second, again, logically, again, here I'm looking for your views. Does coupling have any merit, right, in your view? And if in any of your discussion with the regulators, this kind of discussion is arising, and what are you thinking about it?
Yeah. See, number one, this was discussions happened on this right from 2018. It was in the discussion for almost about four years. But under the MBED, see, today we have, if you look at the scheduling mechanism, we have decentralized scheduling mechanism. Each of the states, they have their power purchase agreements, they have their allocations from the central generating stations, and they do scheduling of that. And they have the renewable also. So they do scheduling of all these renewables and thermal power plants. So it is their responsibility to manage the demand and supply within the state. Under MBED, the scheduling is done at the centralized level. So states are reluctant in giving their rights of scheduling. This issue was discussed with many of the states, and there was a lot of reluctance from the part of the states.
That is why what we understand is that MBED has been dropped. It is not being considered now. As far as coupling is concerned, I mean, we have said very clearly that there are no merits in coupling. In the past, we have mentioned about this. We have also made our submissions to CERC on the staff paper that why coupling is not desired and why coupling should not happen because this will kill the institutional framework of this market, the power exchanges. This will kill innovation. This will kill competition in the market. And that is why the regulator has issued the staff paper for simulation of the data, and they want to take a decision based on the simulation results that if there is actually a merit in the case, the benefit to the consumers, maybe they will consider this. Otherwise, they will not consider this.
But do you think that there can be, because I don't understand. It is not a market coupling. It's an exchange coupling, right? Earlier, the thesis was a market coupling. There are no markets to couple here. So the whole thesis is.
I agree with you. It's a misnomer. But whatever it is, whatever it is, so the regulator will probably take a view based on the simulation results.
Understood. But simulation results can't. Again, going back to the same point, given your market share, at least in the key product of almost 100%, how can the simulation result be any different?
Again, I agree with you. If you look at the order of CERC dated 6th of February, in that order itself, CERC has mentioned that if one of the exchanges has 99% market share, and as the common sense will say, coupling 99% with 1% will not lead to any benefit. So it is already there. I mean, they have also mentioned that. But anyhow, since they have issued an order for doing the simulations for the different market segments, it is RTM, GDAM, DAM, DAM, and also RTM with SCED. So let's wait for the report to come.
Right, sir. Going to the last bit, Rohit sir or Goel sir, anyone can answer. Hypothetically, even if we say coupling happens, how easy to implement it? Because when we say coupling, but let's think about the challenges. Any thoughts on that?
There are many challenges. As far as DAM, RTM coupling is concerned, then even if it is done by the system operator, they need a software. Present software which they are developing for the simulation is basically just for the simulation of big data. But if you have to run the market, then you need a market-grade software. And that kind of a software will have to be developed. The front end of this, the back office of that, all those things will have to be done. So that will need a lot of time.
Thereafter, you will have to also work out the process of physical settlement of power between the exchanges and the financial settlement between the exchanges and also have to ensure that how exchanges that the financial settlement between the exchanges is ensured because each of the exchanges will have to ensure payment to their sellers. I think all these things will have to be worked out. It will definitely take a good amount of time.
Do you think?
In case of RTM and SCED, if that is the option which is decided by the regulator, then in that case, the time required will be much more because SCED, the algorithm is entirely different. RTM, the algorithm is different. I think we will have to first define the logic for that. That itself is a big task, and thereafter, developing a software for that. And again, the physicals because there the number of participants are going to be large because all these generating companies under the PPA, they will be also the participants and also the distribution companies. So I think the process involved in physical and financial settlement is quite complicated there. So I think time required will be much larger there. It should be given two to three years.
Got it. So basically, in a nutshell, we are saying there's a lot of investment, manpower, right, technology, etc., is required to do this. And so this should only happen when there's a very, very strong merit for this. I mean.
Yeah, yeah. I'm sure. Definitely. Regulators also will take all these points into consideration while taking a decision.
Got it, sir. Thank you so much, sir. I believe we hope.
Thank you, sir.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Karan P. Gupta from Cavi Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Thank you for the opportunity. Just a quick question, sir. Can you just talk about the difference between volume growth and revenue growth in the last quarter? I noticed volume growth is about 16% and revenue growth was about 2.5% lower than that. So if you could just talk about that briefly, why that difference.
Yeah. In some of the products, we are also giving incentive to our partners. So the difference is because of that.
Is this incentive something that has been started recently? Because I haven't noticed a similar difference in past quarters. And how do you see this going ahead? Is it because of competition that's happening in the market or to grow the market as a whole? If you could just talk about that, please.
Yeah, yeah. In the term market and obviously market segments, because of the competition between the exchanges, if they are giving incentives, we have to also match that. Otherwise, they will lose market share.
Okay. That's all I had. Thank you, sir.
Yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from Manthan D. Patel from Patel Investments. Please go ahead.
Hello.
Yeah, hello.
Am I audible?
Yes.
So there are two questions. First thing, I want to know, is there any learning involved, I mean, while basically running the front-end operations on your platform?
Hello. I'm not able to hear you clearly.
Manthan, sir, may we request to use the handset mode if you are using the speaker mode, please?
No, I'm using hello? Hello?
Hello, yes.
Are you able to hear me?
Please go ahead. It's been trying.
Yeah, yeah. So I want to know, is there any learning involved while using your platform? I mean, if novice or any new participants want to create an LP?
Manthan, can you hear me?
I'm not able to hear you clearly.
Can you hear your line clearly?
Hello. Hello.
Hello, hello.
Yeah. Can you hear me now?
Sir, your voice is still sounding muffled.
Now? Hello.
Yes.
Yes.
It's better now.
Yes. Okay. So I want to know, is there any learning involved while, I mean, initiating trading on your platform?
Your question is not clear to me.
Like, suppose any new participant wants to trade energy on IEX, then is there any? I mean.
Yes, yes. Okay, okay. I got it now.
Any trust? Okay. Yeah.
Got it now. I mean, whenever any new participant, he becomes a member or client, we definitely do the handholding. And our market office and team persons explains to him how we can do the submit the bids and what kind of data is available for his decision-making. And also, there is an IEX Academy where you can get all kinds of details about the electricity market, power market, and you can understand the different rules, regulations under which the power market is operating.
Okay. And, sir, relating to cost question, I mean, other exchanges will have other kinds of systems. Is my understanding correct? Like both systems won't be the same. So if a particular user is comfortable with IEX, I mean, is there any incentive to sit and learn the new platform?
Oh, we are not able to hear you properly.
Hello. Can you hear now?
Your voice is loud, but there is a lot of.
No, the line is not clear, sir.
Line is not clear.
Hello.
Please send me the email. Send the email to Aparna Garg. We will respond to the question.
Sir, can you hear now?
I'm able to hear you from the beginning, but there is a lot of disagreement in the line.
Okay. Actually, basically, I want to know if some user is comfortable with IEX trading system, then is there any incentive to move towards other system? I think the other system will have different kinds of operating system. He will have to learn the new system.
Gentlemen, can I request you to send them mail, please? You are wasting everybody's time. They are not able to.
Sure. Sure. I'll do that.
Thank you.
The next question comes from the line of Gopinath from PNR Investments. Please go ahead.
Sir, my question is already answered. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question comes from the line of Ankit Kanodia from Smart Sync Services. Please go ahead.
Yes. Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on good set of numbers . Just one quick clarification on the market coupling thing which you answered to a couple of participants. That shadow coupling is already done and we are waiting for the report, or it has not yet done yet? The government has not yet completed the shadow coupling.
We do not know whether the shadow coupling simulation has been done or not because we are giving the data and we are not getting any feedback about the simulation details.
Okay. That was very helpful. And the second question is related to the transaction income which we make. That is the bulk of our basically revenue in IEX. So how has been the transaction price mechanism in the past, and how do we see that going forward, and how much of government's influence is there in that?
Government influence on transaction fees?
Yes.
See, from 2008- 2021, there was no regulation for regulation of transaction fees. Exchanges were free to charge a transaction which is a fair right. And we have been charging this INR 0.02 on either side from 2011 onwards, and we have kept it constant thereafter. Then in 2021, the new regulations came. There are also CERC specified a transaction fees of INR 0.02 on either side. And subsequently, product-wise, we have filed petition, and those petitions also have been approved with INR 0.02 on either side.
So is it fair to assume that you don't see any risk on this angle going forward?
Yeah, yeah. I mean, these kinds of approvals don't happen every day. So once CERC has approved that, I feel that this approval should hold good for at least five years.
Okay. Thank you so much, sir. That was only commented. Thank you and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will take that as our last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for closing comments.
Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today's call. We have had good first nine months for this fiscal on the business front. We have witnessed several efforts announced by the government and regulators to further develop our markets in the country. We remain committed to contribute to the development of a sustainable and efficient energy future for India. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you.
Thank you. On behalf of Indian Energy Exchange, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us. You may now disconnect your lines.