Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to Indian Energy Exchange Q3 FY 2026 results call, hosted by Axis Capital Limited. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Rohan Ghiwala from Axis Capital Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Axis Capital, I'm pleased to welcome you all to the IEX Q3 FY 2026 earnings conference call. We have with us the management team of IEX, which is represented by Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Joint Managing Director, Mr. S.N. Goel, Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations, New Product Initiatives and Exchange Technology, and Ms. Aparna Garg, Head, Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. We will begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Rohit Bajaj, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Good evening, friends. A very Happy New Year to all of you, and a warm welcome to the IEX earnings call for Q3 FY 2026. With me today on this call are Shri Satyanarayan Goel, CMD, IEX; Mr. Vineet Harlalka, CFO and Company Secretary; Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Market Operations and Exchange Technology; Ms. Aparna Garg, Head of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications; and Mr. Aditya Wali. India continues to be the fastest growing major economy in the world, posting a strong GDP growth of 8.2% in the Q2 of FY 2026. In the backdrop of continued global uncertainty, the International Monetary Fund, IMF, has recently revised India's GDP growth estimate for FY 2026 to 7.3% from its earlier forecast of 6.6%.
This growth path has been driven by a robust domestic demand, heightened investment activity and steady performance across industry, services, agriculture and construction. Policy reforms such as rationalization of GST rates, new labor laws and the recently concluded India-EU Free Trade Agreement, have also finally firmly positioned India on a long-term trajectory towards becoming the world's third largest economy by 2030. On the power sector front, electricity demand picked up during December with an increase of 6.6% on a year-on-year basis. However, prolonged monsoon in 2025 led to a lower electricity requirement across the country. Consequently, electricity demand during Q3 FY 2026 remained flat at 392 billion units. For nine months, FY 2026, demand also remains subdued at 1,286 billion units, similar to the corresponding period of FY 2025.
Going into January, demand has increased to 6% compared with the year ago. During the first nine months of FY 2026, an additional 44.7 GW of installed capacity across thermal and renewable sources was added, taking total installed capacity to over 500 GW. Renewable energy accounted for more than 50% of the total installed capacity. Notably, India achieved the milestone of sourcing 50% of its cumulative installed electric power capacity from renewable sources, five years ahead of the 2030 target. On the fuel side, ample fuel has been available at competitive prices. India's coal production reached 272 million tons in Q3 FY 2026, similar to 273 million tons produced in Q3 FY 2025.
At nearly 722 million tons, production in the first nine months of FY 2026 has also remained similar compared with the same period in FY 2025. Coal inventory as of January seventeenth stood at 25 days, but the quarter imported coal price for 4,200 GAR coal declined to nearly $47 per ton, a decline of 10% compared with the same quarter last fiscal. Overall, the fuel situation for the sector has remained comfortable. Let us now talk about few important regulatory updates and policy initiatives. The government has released Draft National Electricity Policy 2026, aimed at aligning the power sector with Viksit Bharat goals over the next two decades. Draft prioritizes cost-reflective tariff reforms, a phased reduction in cross subsidies and time of day peak hour pricing to improve efficiency and strengthen discom finances.
It sets ambitious consumption targets, per capita electricity use rising from 2,000 units by 2030 and over 4,000 units by 2047, and calls for stronger generation, transmission and distribution planning. Key strategies span resource adequacy planning, cost reflective tariffs with A T&C loss reduction to single digit, RE expansion with storage, thermal, hydro, nuclear enhancements, et cetera. For deepening power markets, suitable policy and regulatory frameworks shall be established for generation capacity addition through market mechanisms such as bilateral contract settlements. Standardized contracts for collective transaction will be executed on power exchanges. Electricity from long-term PPAs may be encouraged to be routed through power exchanges or any other platform recognized by the Central Commission.
Recently, key amendments were proposed to the Draft Electricity Amendment Bill 2025, wherein state electricity regulatory commissions have been specifically empowered to determine tariffs suo motu to ensure timely cost recovery and avoid delays. Cross-subsidies are to be progressively eliminated within 5 years for sectors such as manufacturing, railways, and metro operations. In a push for C&I and open access consumers, DISCOM may be exempted from their obligation of supplying to C&I users with more than 1 MW load. Also, DISCOMs would provide non-discriminatory open access to multiple distribution licensees on payment of wheeling charges. These proposals should open up DISCOM resources for supply, avoid tying up standard power, and enhance competitiveness of the C&I segment. Draft provides Renewable Purchase Obligation, RPO, not be less than central RPO trajectory, and proposes a specific penalty of INR 0.35-INR 0.45 per unit for RPO non-fulfillment.
CERC issued final guidelines for Virtual Power Purchase Agreements, VPPA, in December. These guidelines recognize power exchanges as authorized platforms for sale of electricity by RE generators under VPP arrangements. Renewable generators entering VPPA would be selling the electricity component in the collective segment on power exchanges. This should help increase volume on exchanges. In reference to the carbon market, final notification regarding Greenhouse Gas Emission Intensity, GEI, targets have been published by a Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change for obligated entities across seven sectors such as aluminum, chlor-alkali, cement, pulp and paper, petrochemicals, petroleum and textiles. Final notifications are awaited for the iron and steel sector. The baseline emission of these seven sectors, with base year FY 2024, is 480 million tons equivalent, with targeted reduction to 456.32 million tons equivalent by FY 2027.
These sectors cover around 16% of India's GHG emissions. This development has laid the foundation of trading of carbon credit certificates on power exchanges. The MOP had earlier issued the final notification on Renewable Consumption Obligation, RCOs. The notification defined RCO fulfillment method to also include RECs acquired under VPPAs, among others, and also provided for fungibility of obligation under wind, hydro, and other components. We have sought CERC approval to align our green contracts with the revised RCO components. The order in the matter is reserved. Once aligned, these contracts will provide due clarity to market participants for RE sale procurement, which has the potential to increase RE participation going forward. CERC issued an order on implementing market coupling on 23rd July, in which the regulator decided to initiate the process of implementation of market coupling of Day-Ahead Market.
According to the order, this was to be done by January 2026. IEX has filed an appeal in Appellate Tribunal for Electricity, APTEL, and today the hearing's concluded. We expect the final order to be released shortly. Moving on to performance. In Q3 FY 2026, IEX recorded electricity trading volume of 34.1 billion units, a year-on-year growth of nearly 12%. For the first 9 months of FY 2026, electricity volume touched nearly 102 billion units, higher by 14.3% or on a year-on-year basis. Revenue for the company grew by 14% year-on-year, increasing from INR 160.5 crore in Q3 to INR 183.1 crore in Q3 FY 2026.
Profit after tax increased by 11%, rising from INR 107.3 crore in Q3 FY 2025 to INR 119.1 crore in Q3 FY 2026. For the first nine months of FY 2026, profit after tax was higher by 16.4% from INR 312.1, 312.1 crore in nine months FY 2025 to INR 363.1 crore in nine months FY 2026. The Board of Directors have announced an interim dividend of INR 1.5, equivalent to 150% of face value of the equity share. In Q3 FY 2026, nearly 18.6 lakh renewable energy certificates were traded, lower than nearly 27 lakh certificates traded over the same quarter in FY 2025.
During the 9 months till December, over 115 lakh RECs were traded, higher by 4% over the same period last fiscal. The RTM segment continues its strong growth, maintaining 40% share in the electricity volume at IEX. For Q3 FY 2026, RTM volume at nearly 13 billion units were higher by 36% on a year-on-year basis. In the first 9 months, RTM volumes have grown 38.6% on a year-on-year basis to reach 40.5 billion units. This segment has been playing a critical role by offering flexibility in power procurement, providing immediate responsiveness to efficiently integrate renewable with the grid. Green Market volume in Q3 FY 2026 rose 7.2% on a year-on-year basis to nearly 3 billion units, compared with Q3 FY 2025.
In the first nine months of FY 2026, the segment traded over 8 billion units, to be higher by 23% over the same period in FY 2025. The Green Market helps obligated entities, including distribution companies, meet their renewable purchase obligations. With capacity addition, increase in solar, hydro, and sustained supply from coal-based generation, supply liquidity on power exchanges improved and led to substantial drop in prices. In Q3 FY 2026, sell bids in Day-Ahead Market of IEX increased 44% on year-on-year basis. As a result, the average Day-Ahead Market price was INR 3.22 per unit, down 13.2% YoY, while price in the Real-Time Market averaged INR 3.56 per unit, a 16% YoY drop. Even on a nine-month basis, sell liquidity in the Day-Ahead Market in FY 2026 has been higher by 43% compared with FY 2025.
The average DAM price, including during this period, at INR 3.85 per unit, has been lower by 14% compared with the same period in FY 2025. Similarly, the average price at INR 3.56 per unit in RTM segment over 9 months since April, has been lower by 16% on a year-on-year basis. These prices presented an opportunity for discoms and commercial and industrial consumers to meet their demand at competitive prices and to replace their costlier power plant procuring through exchanges. On the products front, we continue to await approval from the CERC on our petition to extend the Term- Ahead Darket contracts to 11 months. With regards to our Green RTM petition, CERC has reserved its order.
As mentioned previously, to facilitate merchant storage capacity in the country, we have filed a petition with the CERC for introduction of Peak Day-Ahead Market and Peak Real-Time Market segments. These segments would facilitate trading of power during high demand hours, such as late evening and early mornings. Stakeholder consultation of the same has been completed, and the matter awaits further proceedings. Moving on to IGX performance. December 2025 marked 5 years of operations for the Indian Gas Exchange, IGX. IGX currently represents close to 3% of India's overall gas consumption and 20% of the spot market. Over the years, IGX has steadily expanded its market footprint, increasing the delivery points available from 4 in FY 2022 to 23 today, covering both domestic as well as RLNG.
The product portfolio at IGX has also grown over the last five years, up from six contract types available initially to ten contract types currently available. For Q3 FY 2026, IGX traded gas volumes of 17.5 million MMBtu, an increase of 8% over Q3 FY 2025, led by volumes from domestic gas producers, heightened power demand, and demand from city gas distribution. For the nine months period, April to December in FY 2026, IGX traded gas volume of 58.2 million MMBtu, a growth of 46% on a year-on-year basis. IGX recorded a profit after tax of INR 8.8 crore in Q3 FY 2026, which was higher by 6% compared with 8.3 crore in Q3 FY 2025.
For the 9 months till December, IGX recorded a profit after tax of INR 32.5 crore, higher by 47.9%, compared with INR 22 crore in the same period in FY 2025. As gas prices continue their downtrend, the policy initiative remain positive in the sector. Volumes at IGX would continue to be robust. Even as weather-related events soften power demands this year, CEA projection of consumption nearing 2,500 BU by 2032 would continue to drive exchange volume in the coming years. To meet this surging demand, nearly 4-5 GW of capacity is being added in the country on a monthly basis. The power sector also continues to evolve with the emergence of market mechanisms such as battery storage arbitrage, firm and dispatchable renewable energy, FDRE, virtual power purchase agreement, PPAs, electricity derivatives, battery energy storage solutions, BESS.
Already 13,200 MWh of BESS projects have been awarded under the first tranche, and tenders for nearly a third of 30,000 megawatt projects in the second tranche under VGF have also been awarded. The reduction in this battery storage cost has further accelerated BESS adoption. As recently as November 2025, APTransco discovered INR 1.48 lakh per megawatt per month for 2,000-megawatt, 2-hour, 2-cycle tender under the VGF mechanism. This is the lowest price discovered for BESS under the VGF mechanism in a big positive start for BESS in the country earlier this month. We witnessed the first merchant BESS trades at IEX from Juniper Green Energy Limited, the largest operating BESS asset till date in the country. These developments are set to play a pivotal role in deepening India's power markets and facilitate a successful energy transition.
Our diversification initiatives are also gradually gathering momentum. For Q3 FY 2026, the International Carbon Exchange, ICX, issued 51 lakh I-REC, higher by 219% compared with Q3 FY 2025. For the first 9 months of FY 2026, cumulative 113 lakh I-REC were issued, surpassing 59 lakh I-REC issued in FY 2025. Revenue for ICX in Q3 FY 2026 stood at INR 1.8 crore, and INR 5.25 crore for the first 9-month period, respectively. With regards to the coal exchange, Ministry of Coal has appointed Coal Controller's Organization as the regulator for the coal exchange. MOC has also come out with a revised draft rule for exchange and invited public comments, which were open till January nineteenth. IEX has been working with stakeholders to explore setting up first coal exchange in India.
As India advances towards its net zero goal, energy exchanges are expected to play an increasingly significant role in shaping the nation's energy ecosystem. Thank you, and now we can have question and answers.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Preetam Jain from Avendus. Please go ahead.
Thank you. This is Preetam from Avendus. Sir, I had a question on the hearing. When would be the expected announcement date of the verdict? I understand we have to submit our written submissions by fourth February. When can we expect verdict date?
Can't say, but it should happen within a month's time.
Okay. So, okay, within a month. Okay. Also just to follow up. Yes. So just to follow up on this, so, in a scenario where things don't say, things don't go in favor of us, what is the next possible situation or next possible thing we are planning to do?
First of all, why, why are you saying that if things don't be go in our favor? Things will definitely go in our favor. In any case, even if they have to go with the coupling, a lot of things are to be done yet. I mean, if you are following up the hearings, they have to issue the draft regulations, invite comments on that, and give statement of reason for that, why they want to do it, do coupling. Everybody will have opportunity to comment on that. Then they will be allowed to issue final regulations, procedure to be finalized. I think a lot of work is to be done. So we will have opportunity to express our views at each and every stage, and let's see.
I just want to understand how long it can get drawn on for... I'll get back on the queue, sir. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Good evening. My first question is, in relation to the volume growth that we saw, for electricity volumes on IEX. In the month of December, the power demand growth improved. Your volume growth was about, slightly under 3%. And, you know, so, I understand, you know, the, merchant sort of, as the demand increases on the grid. But, how, how even in January, the demand is not as good as December in terms of growth, but so how, how is this, is the slowdown likely to remain, let us say, if India's power demand grows 5%-6% instead of, you know, 0%-1% like it has been last few months? How would your power demand growth, how would your volumes be impacted in the electricity range?
See, in calendar year 2025, the demand in the country was subdued mainly because of the weather reason. We had the-
Yeah.
-more than above monsoon. So because of the good monsoon, the agricultural load that crashed, and also because of the good weather, the air conditioning load was also low. So overall, the demand did not increase because of that. But otherwise, if you looked at the industrial production, there is definitely, there is an increase in that. And since the demand growth was not there, but the availability of power was there, we have the enough capacity, we had enough coal to generate power. The rate is lower than what it used to be. And because of the low rate, it provided opportunity to the distribution companies for optimizing their power procurement cost. So as a result of that, even though there was no demand increase in the country, we saw reasonably good volume growth.
I think it was almost about 14%-15% kind of volume growth in the first nine months. January month is also going strong with a volume growth of almost about 18%-19%.
January is 18%-19%. Okay.
Yeah.
So, I mean, is there any correlation that if power demand actually firms up, you know, like December volume growth was 3%. So I'm just wondering whether is there anything to read there?
You cannot cannot make any correlation on month-to-month basis.
Mm.
Yes, we have seen that on yearly basis, if the demand increases, definitely it leads to increase in the volume. But this year, when the demand did not increase, then also there was volume increase because of optimization opportunity, because of the low prices. So I think because, you know, exchange provides both way, you know, one can purchase power to meet the demand, and also, when the demand is less, they can optimize the power under the PPA.
Yes, sir. Very clear. The second question is on the REC volume. In the nine-month period, you've seen that REC volume growth has been in low single digits. So what is... And we are hearing so much on, you know, RPO obligations and everything. So, I mean, why is the slowdown? And, you know, what is the outlook?
See, REC volume in the first six months was reasonably good. But subsequently, what happened, there was, one is that the compliance, which was to be done by thirtieth September, that timeline has been extended up to thirty-first of March. So some of the buyers now, they have shifted their buying into the March month of February, March. Secondly, CERC also came out with a discussion paper on REC, and wherein they have specified that, in case somebody is not able to meet the RPO obligation, he can deposit amount with the government, which equivalent to 1.05% of the average price of REC in the preceding year. So with this kind of provision, many are thinking that maybe, let's see, maybe we can even meet the RPO obligation by just depositing the money with the government.
So because of this, the REC purchase is slightly low, but, in any case, I think, if you by the end of the year, we will be able to still do better than what we did last year.
This sounds like a very regressive step, right? And if you are able to deposit money, and not-
Yeah. We have, we have made our submissions with the honorable commission, that in case of REC, you know, REC is based on the green generation of green power.
Correct.
In case of depositing money, it is not promoting the renewable energy.
Right.
So we should continue with the existing process. We have made our suggestions, and let's see what is the outcome of that.
Just last one question. Typically, if I divide the standalone revenue of the company by the total gross volume, the ratio comes to less than 4 paise. But this time it is coming at 4.00 paise, you know, so typically there is some discount that is there, which shows up in numbers. Because the RECs, I remember, the pricing is lower, and also you have some discount in TAM. But this time it is not showing up. I mean, is there anything I'm missing?
No, in case of REC, the transaction fees is reduced to INR 20.
Correct.
So, last, in fact, it was for part of the year. This year, for the full year, it is INR 20. And even out of that, also, looking at the market conditions, we have to give discount. We have to give incentives to the buyers and sellers, some amount of incentive. So, but in case of that, otherwise, in case of electricity, I think it is around INR 0.04.
Yeah, but if you divide the revenue for December quarter standalone, INR 1,439 million, by the volume, the ratio is coming to 4.00 paise. It is typically less than that.
Revenue also includes annual fees by the members.
Yeah. Okay.
It is-
In the past few quarters, it was always less than INR 0.04, so I was wondering if there is something else, also this time.
Maybe there is a variation in the monthly fee, I mean, yearly fees.
So the TAM trade volume, sometimes the delivery-related to the revenue recognition, it happens. So that also impacts slightly the money and the realization and the trade volume.
Okay, Vineet. Thank you so much. Thanks.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah, hi. Thank you for the opportunity, sir. So first question, again, on the market coupling case, if you could help us understand, is the case now boils down to whether the process was followed while the implementation of market coupling, rather than the market coupling regulation itself? What are we kind of doing in the APTEL? Is it the process that we are challenging or just the whole regulation?
What we had challenged in the APTEL was, that this order should be set aside because the order has not followed the due process of order making. The transparency is not, was not ensured, and, there was no merit in implementing market coupling. But during the discussions, it also emerged that, CERC has mentioned that they will be doing this market coupling only after making the regulations. And during the regulation-making process, everybody will have the opportunity of making the submissions, so the complete transparency will be maintained during that process. So this order is basically to initiate the process of regulation making. So let us see what is the final outcome of this.
... There was one round of public comments that were invited on market coupling. So you're saying for the regulation, again, CERC is required to do the-
No, no, that was the staff paper. That was on the staff paper, I mean, views on the staff paper. But when you make regulations, you issue draft regulations, which indicates the intent of the commission and why they want to, what, why that intent is, and on that they invite the comments.
Right. And there were some news article mentions.
Staff paper is invariably out of commission. Staff paper is something, a discussion paper initiated by the staff of the commission, but draft regulations are by the commission.
Understood. And so in most likely, post the April, there's a possibility that CERC will start the process of the market coupling regulation?
Let us see. I mean, I can't say anything on that.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhir Pandit from Old Bridge Mutual Fund. Please go ahead. Please unmute your line and go ahead, Abhir Pandit, sir. Pandit, sir. Due to no response, we move to the next participant. Pranav Jain from Singular Capital . Please go ahead.
Good night. So just, I just had a couple of questions, sir. The first one being, in your opening remark, you said that, electricity from long-term PPAs might be routed through the exchanges, if I heard correctly. Can you explain me more on that? How will that work? How will the tariffs work on that? Will it be the same process? Like, just a little idea on that.
Okay. Just a minute.
Yeah.
Yeah, so this was point related to deepening of power market, where, as per the National Electricity Policy draft, suitable policy and regulatory framework shall be established for generation capacity addition through mechanisms such as bilateral contract settlements. So they are relating it to Contract for Difference model, where the exchanges are used to dispatch that power-
Mm-hmm.
and whatever realization is there from exchange, that will be kept by developer, and whatever is the missing money as compared to the strike price, which is discussed, that is settled outside the market through balance bilateral contract settlement. So that's the intent of this thing. And this is similar to what is being done globally, across the Europe and other places, and India also, this has been discussed for long time. And in fact, the VPPA guidelines, which has come in the month of December, very recently, this is also very similar to it. It is also on the basis of bilateral contract settlement.
Got you, sir. Understood. And, so just another question on, just to understand. So even if coupling comes in DAM, but I just want to understand how... Because now also it will take time for it to get implemented in the Day-Ahead Market at first. How much longer will it take, if that happens, for that to happen in the RTM market as well? Because my understanding is it is very complicated, but just want to get your idea on it.
First of all, for implementing in the DAM market itself, lot of work is to be done. As I told you that there are going to be draft regulations, public hearing, final regulation, process to be finalized and, you know, lot of things to be done. So-
Right.
After that, commission is already in the order. They have mentioned that they will look at the experience of this, and thereafter decide whether they want to go for the RTM or not. Because in case of RTM, the complications are more. You have to do it 40 times, 8 times in a day, and the timelines available for execution of market is very short. In case of coupling event, whether the timelines available within that, whether the coupling will be possible or not, I think they will study all these things and then decide about that.
Got it, sir. And so just lastly, sir, there's this news article that mentioned that the tariffs, like the exchange fees, might be cut from INR 0.04 to whatever INR 0.505 on each side. What is your idea on that? Do you see that happening?
I haven't heard any such thing. I mean, there are many news items, so I don't really pay any much attention to that. But as far as the commission is concerned-
But is that it-
As far as the commission is concerned, we haven't heard anything like that from the commission.
Got it, sir. Got it. Thank you. Thank you for answering my questions.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Abhir Pandit from Old Bridge Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Thank you for the conversation. Sir, my query is first related to Market Coupling. Sir, assuming if Market Coupling happens and it, the round robin fashion is adapted, is it necessary that the volumes will flow to a particular exchange for a particular period of time, or will it be open for all the exchanges at that period? How will it be?
It will be open to all the three exchanges on everyday basis. Buyers and sellers can submit their bid in any of the exchange. Only thing is that-
Okay.
Bids of all three exchanges will be aggregated at one place for the purpose of price discovery.
Okay. Okay. Okay, okay. So basically, price discovery moves to Grid India from the exchange, which is-
No, no, no.
currently where it is.
Price discovery, price discovery will be done on the round robin basis. Maybe-
Okay.
for one month, one exchange will do, for next month, another exchange will do, for next, third month, another exchange will do, and will keep on rotating between the exchanges on round robin basis.
Okay. Okay.
Yeah.
Okay, okay. Okay, fine. Sir, my second question is, in the terms of new products that was shared at the start of the call, right? I mean, which has come, based on the recent government paper. Sir, how do you see, IEX ability to introduce those products and the, acceptance or reception of those products by customers, and, the timeline for these, for the launch of these products?
See, when we file petition with the Honorable Commission, before that, we do the market survey, we interact with the customers, and based on the requirement of the market, we file petition for introduction of the contracts.
Okay.
In fact, when we do public consultation also, in that also we have received good response from the market for introduction of this products-
Okay.
-which we have filed with the Honorable Commission.
Okay.
Commission has done the hearing. Let us see. This order is reserved in one or two cases.
Okay. Sir, just one final. For these products, sir, what would be the total market size or TAM as such? In a sense, how big will it be possible?
See, for long duration contract, the market size can be another 15-20 billion units.
15-20 billion units, okay.
Yeah,
Okay.
Our Green RTM is something, you know, because a lot of renewable capacity addition is happening in the country, is going to take place in the country now, and renewable capacity has large variations. So on real-time basis, they will be able to make good those variations to the Real-Time Green Market.
Okay.
Today, they don't have any such product.
Okay.
As the renewable capacity additions increase, the transactions to the Green RTM will keep on increasing.
Okay.
Third product is basically peaking power.
Okay.
Today, we have a shortage of power for maybe two months, three, two hours, three hours in a day between the peak hour time. And, and generation capacities like the battery storage or the pump storage or the gas-based plants, where the cost of, generation is slightly higher, maybe they can participate in this market. And if in this market-
Okay.
the cap price is made slightly more, it will incentivize these kind of capacity additions in the market and help in meeting the demand during the peak time. So that is the intent of the peaking power tariff.
Okay.
FPPCA in power tariff.
Okay. Perfect. Perfect, perfect. Okay, thank you, sir. That's it from my side.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of S. Ramesh, an individual investor. Please go ahead.
Thank you and good evening. So in terms of your gas exchange and the carbon exchange, how would the growth in these two markets pan out, say, in the next one or two years, compared to the growth in the power exchange? And how would that impact your growth in revenue and profitability?
See, in case of power exchange, IEX, it is operating from the last 17.5 years, so you know, it has attained that kind of a maturity. So growth is going to be in the range of 15%-20%, which we have been achieving over the years.
Okay.
But in case of gas exchange, it’s at the nascent stage, and this year, in the first 9 months, the volume increase is almost about 47%-48%. And the trend in the market is that the gas prices are going to reduce, going to be reduced in the next one or two years. And if that happens, there will be a good traction in the market, and we expect that the gas volumes will definitely continue to grow at a rate of maybe 25%-30% over the next 4-5 years.
What about the carbon exchange?
Carbon exchange, in fact, you know, earlier we had idea of starting a voluntary carbon market, but government of India, under the CCTS scheme, they have decided to launch this mandatory and voluntary carbon market under the regulatory framework. So they, they are making the regulations for that, and hopefully, that market will start sometime in FY 2026 or 2027, 2027 or 2028. And as and when that market starts, CERC will be the regulator for that market. So it will be—It's very difficult to say at this stage what is going to be the opportunity in that when the transaction starts and looking at the market participation, we'll work out that.
Yeah, and request for a final couple of thoughts. Also, on the gas exchange, as you see growth, would you also see higher margins in the gas products compared to the power products? And secondly, what is the timeline? How are you progressing on the proposed IPO for the gas exchange?
See, in case of power or gas exchange, the margins are fixed, so our revenue is based on the volume we do. And as I told you that in case of gas exchange, we expect a significantly higher volume growth of 25%-30% in the coming years. So I'm sure there the numbers will be much better. And as far as IPO is concerned, basically, you know, as per the regulations, we have to, because our holding in the gas exchange is 47.5%, we have to bring it down to 25% as per regulations. So we are, we have requested IEX to proceed with the IPO for this. So they have initiated action.
Let's see. We plan to do it in this year, so it all depends on the different activities to be done and the clearances when we get from the SEBI. It all depends on that.
Thank you very much, and wish you all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vijay from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Good afternoon. Am I audible?
Yes.
Yeah. So there was this concept of checking whether coupling RTM and SCED markets, you know, would be feasible and if it's economically good. Where is that right now, sir? Or is it like only now regulations on market coupling is the priority after that DAM coupling will happen, and only after that, all these things on RTM and SCED, all these things will happen?
As far as RTM and SCED is concerned, I think CERC in their order has already mentioned that this will involve redesigning of a lot of regulations and process and other things. So they will look at this at a later stage. They have not made any mind on that. So at the moment, they are talking about is the Day-Ahead Market , and based on the experience of Day-Ahead Market , they will think about RTM. They will take a view about RTM.
Okay. And, from what I understand, the regulations, public hearing, final regulations on Market Coupling, and implementation will be next, correct, sir?
Yeah, yeah.
And-
Your voice, your voice is breaking.
Sorry, I was just checking how long, according to you-
Can't say, can't say. You know, it's a regulatory process, and we really cannot say how much time it will take.
Oh.
Your voice is cracking, sir. There is some disturbance in the line. I'm not able to hear you.
Is it better?
Yes, it is better now.
No, so I was just...
No, no, no. I think-
Vijay, your audio is not... Can you please work on your audio?
I-
Vijay, please come back in the question queue. The next question is from the line of Vinay Nadkarni from Hathway Investments. Please go ahead.
Hi, just one bookkeeping question. What is the cash and cash equivalent as of thirty-first of December?
We have a total cash of around INR 1,500 crore as on 31st of December, and out of that, the shareholder fund is around INR 1,200 crore.
Okay. And, secondly, just wanted some idea on how this virtual power purchase agreements are expected to increase demand for IEX?
See, under the virtual power purchase agreement, a buyer will do the agreement with the generating company for generation of green electricity. That electricity will be sold on the exchanges, and green attribute will be taken by the company which is getting into this PPA, virtual PPA. So definitely it will increase sell volume on the exchanges, and it will have definitely a positive impact on the volume cleared also. But it all depends on the quantum of virtual PPAs which happen in the market, interest of the market in getting into these transactions.
Okay. And, secondly, the total unrequisitioned power that is available for transacting on the exchanges, that is currently at 7%, isn't it?
Currently at?
7%. How much is it?
Yeah, it is almost about 9%-10% now.
Okay.
It is increasing. Earlier, NTPC was participating. Now we find that, many other generators are also participating in this market.
Okay. And lastly, from, from your vantage point, when I see the, the GDP growth at 7.4, 7.5, and you have the IIF growth also coming up, but the power demand is not catching up to... Is there some dichotomy there? What, what do you see? Why is it happening?
As I, as I told at the beginning of the, this conference also, that this year we had a very good monsoon, more than above, monsoon. And because of good monsoon, the agricultural demand had crashed. In fact, even air conditioning load was also very low. So as a result of that, the demand increase was not there. And, but this year, if the demand, I mean, if the weather is normal, then definitely the demand increase is going to be not less than 5%-6%.
Okay. So out of this, the industrial demand continues to increase, but you are saying the agriculture and the household demand has gone down?
Yes, yes, yes.
Thank you very much, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thanks for the follow-up. One question is, you know, will the depth of and and the liquidity of electricity exchanges be a constraint on the extent of VPPAs that can be introduced? You know, as they are structured as contracts for differences. So, at the current moment, how much VPPAs can you actually introduce, given the volumes exchanges handle?
I think as of now, Rohit, maybe you can give some figure on that.
Yeah. See, your point is related to how much buy is there.
Yeah.
Let's say, if we start to execute more and more VPPAs, then all this surplus generation will come to market as a sell.
Yeah.
What I understand is you want to ask how much buy is there and how much this sell can be absorbed in the market, right?
Correct. Correct.
So let's take the worst case, which is solar. During the daytime, and VPPAs doesn't mean only solar. It could be hybrid, it could be wind, it could be BESS, it could be anything. So even if we take example of solar, on an average, during the daytime, there is 6,000-8,000 MW of demand always there. I'm talking about average. There are extreme days where it is high, there are days where it is low. So if we go by that logic, and VPPAs, since they already have an agreement, there are already PPAs there, so they would be price takers, which means they would be putting the lowest price in their bids, right? The price point-
Yeah.
-that they are placing for their sell. So by that logic, if I collate both by RTM as well as DAM, there is liquidity available to the extent of 10,000 megawatts. To that extent, there should not be any problem. And today, this number stands much, much less than 1,000 megawatts. If I talk about how many VPPAs are today there and who are coming to exchange, this number is much less than 1,000 megawatts, which means there is a large window available for them to come to this market, and that will get absorbed.
Rohit, what we also see is that during the daytime, the sell availability is a lot higher than the buy, you know, so the prices are depressed. So if you are just going to increase the more liquidity on the exchange in terms of sellers, it will just crash the price, right?
No. See, what is happening here is, during the daytime, because many of these thermal power plants are also backed down, they are also-
Yeah
... participating on exchange. There is very good quantum of surplus power also coming in the market. Now, all this power is coming at a price point. None of these thermal generators are quoting less than INR 2.5 or 3, right? They are not going below that, because that is their variable cost, coal cost.
Yeah.
Now, if, let's say, 1,000, 2,000, 3,000 megawatts of additional VPPAs power will come, it will bring down the price, no doubt about it. But how much that would be, that is to be seen. So it's not that it will, it will crash, crash it left, right, center, and price would come down to 0 level or less than INR 1 level. That will not happen. But yes, if there is more supply, then it will bring down the prices.
In fact, in the Day-Ahead Market, it is more of conventional power which is coming. But if you look at our G-DAM market, in the G-DAM market, we have large buy volumes. There is an interest from the buyers, but the quantum available in the G-DAM market is comparatively much lower. So when the PPAs come, I mean, VPPAs come, of course, they will come in the conventional market. But if green power comes to the market, yes, that will help us.
Just one last data question. In the nine-month period, what was IEX market share in REC and the TAM segments?
So electricity, overall, we are around 83% in first 9 months, and REC is about 50%. I do not have exact number for REC available right away, but electricity is 83% for sure. REC about close to 50%.
So TAM is what? 50%?
TAM is. It varies between 45-50. You have that? Just a minute. So TAM is generally below 50, but overall electricity is 83.
Got it. We can reverse calculate also, assume 99% for RTM and DAM, and the rest will be-
Yeah.
Thanks.
And 83 will number will help you arriving at the final.
Yes. Thank you so much.
Thank you. We take that as the last question, and now I hand the conference over to the management for the closing comments.
Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today's call. Throughout the Q3 , we witnessed efforts from the government and regulators to establish a favorable policy and regulatory climate to develop the energy sector. We at IEX remain committed to contribute to the development of a sustainable and energy-efficient future for India. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you once again.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your line.