Earnings Call: Q1 2022

Jul 23, 2021

Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. I'm Bharti, moderator for the conference call. Welcome to Q1 FY 2022 earnings call of Indian Energy Exchange hosted by Axis Capital Limited. As a reminder, all participants will be in listen only mode and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then 0 on your touchtone telephone. Please note this conference is recorded. I would now like to hand over the floor to Mr. Sumit Kishore of Axis Capital Limited. Thank you and over to you, sir. Thank you, Bharti. Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Axis Capital, I'm pleased to welcome you all for the Indian Energy Exchange Q1 FY 2022 earnings conference call. We have with us the management team of IEX, which is represented by Mr. Satyanarayan Goel, Executive Chairman cum Managing Director, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, our Chief Financial Officer, and Ms. Aparna Garg for Investor Relations. We also have the entire management team. We will begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Goel, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Over to you, sir. Good afternoon, dear friends. I welcome you all to the Q1 FY2022 earnings call. Present with me today are Mr. Vineet Harlalka, Mr. Rajesh Mediratta, Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Mr. Amit Kumar, Mr. Sangh Gautam, Madam Shruti Bhatia and Aparna Garg. I hope all of you, your teams and families continues to be safe and healthy. The second wave of COVID-19 is almost behind us. April and May were harsh times for all of us. The second wave has left a mark on India's macroeconomic indicators during the quarter. However, it is heartening to now see that things are getting better. There is a significant reduction in number of active cases and a considerable pickup in the pace of vaccination drive by the government. During these trying times, Team IEX has been working at its best to ensure uninterrupted 24/7 access to the exchange platform and provide the industries and distribution utilities round the clock access through power exchange, facilitating them power procurement in the most flexible, transparent and reliable manner. As another significant achievement, IEX successfully commenced the much awaited cross-border electricity trade in its day-ahead market. Nepal is the first country to have commenced trade with our platform from 17th April 2021 and is participating regularly. We are in discussion with Bangladesh and Bhutan, and I'm expecting them they will also start these transactions shortly. In line with our customer-centric approach, we launched phase 1 of the web-based platform for the market participants providing anytime, anywhere secure and easy access to the platform. Besides benefits such as data insights, online client registration, as well as the operational and financial reports. We also implemented mixed integer linear programming, MILP-based price discovery algorithm in collaboration with N-SIDE, a European technology company, to provide the global best-in-class trading algorithm to our participants and support introduction of complex bid orders to meet the requirement of dynamically changing sectors. The real-time electricity market has been seeing a significant growth and making a meaningful contribution and has been able to establish a great value to the power market within just about a year of operation. The market requires very high technological expertise as it operates 48 half-hourly auctions each day, following a very stringent timelines of 15 minutes for bid collection, price discovery, interaction with NLDC and grid operator availability. I'm pleased to update that we have significantly upgraded our system allowing this market to operate with nearly 100% availability. With our efforts towards creating a reliable real-time market, RTM has now become a key differentiator for the business, contributing more than 20% of the total electricity traded on the exchange platform during this quarter. Additionally, the discoms and open access consumers have been proactively leveraging the RTM market to balance real-time demand supply variation, planned and unplanned outages and support during the extreme weather events. Recently, the coastal distribution companies who were impacted by the cyclonic disturbances, Tauktae and Yaas could significantly rely on the real-time market to support their power supply to affected areas. It clearly underlines the growing significance of the market in enabling distribution utilities and industries in addressing power demand supply uncertainties in the most competitive and reliable manner. Similarly, the green market has recently seen a greater traction among the market participants. This market is now positioned as a key avenue for procuring renewable energy in a flexible manner and at the most competitive price. Very soon, we will also strengthen our green offering by launching green day-ahead market in addition to the existing terminal market. As per recently published data on power market for fiscal year 2021, with our efforts the exchange market grew by 41% on year-to-year basis in FY 2021, whereas the bilateral market declined by 25% during the same period. Further, the Indian Gas Exchange has also been seeing great enthusiasm and uptake in volumes as well as participation. In fact, the volumes that were achieved during the last year, we are now trading in 1 month. We are also seeing an increasing trend every month. With growing momentum, appreciation among market participants, and several key policy and regulatory initiatives such as discussion on gas under GST, constitution of independent transmission system operator, and rationalization of gas pipeline tariff. We are geared towards developing a vibrant gas market in the country. At IEX, we are also working to develop other new market segments such as Long Duration Contracts, the Green Term Ahead Market, as well as the ancillary market to expand and develop India's power markets in integrated and holistic way. I will now share with you an overall economic and industry updates and how it played out for our business. While the industrial and economic activity showed growth momentum in the early part of April 2021, overall, the quarter remained challenging due to second wave of COVID-19 pandemic. In April 2021, the manufacturing PMI stood at 65.5. In June, it came down to 48.1. The impact of pandemic was also seen on the services side, as the services PMI declined from 54 in April 2021 to 41.2 in June 2021. Despite the partial lockdown during the quarter, the electricity consumption showed a significant growth for the quarter and registering a growth of 17%, that is 340 billion units during this quarter with the revival of economic activities. The industrial states such as Gujarat, Maharashtra, Punjab, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, were the key differentiator and contributed to this growth. The country saw its highest ever peak demand of 191 gigawatts in June, and this peak demand hit another height of 200 gigawatt in the month of July. As on June 2021, installed capacity of the country has reached 384 gigawatt and has increase of 3.5% on year-to-year basis. The renewable energy capacity addition has now reached to a level of 97 GW, with increase of 10.4% in 2021. The fast-paced growth in renewable capacity underlines a gradual energy shift that has been underway and an increased impetus on building a decarbonized and sustainable energy economy. On the policy and regulatory front, the Electricity Amendment Bill 2021 that aims to de-license power supply, allowing multiple distributors in the same area and giving consumers the option to switch power supplier, is expected to be introduced in the monsoon session of the Parliament. This bill will promote competition and efficiency in the distribution sector and in turn lead to financial viability of the distribution companies. Recently, the Cabinet approved reform-based result-linked power distribution scheme of INR 303,000 crore outlay for 5 years. A significant part of this outlay is earmarked for replacement of existing 25 crore meters by smart prepaid meters. Smart metering system will ensure proper energy accounting, billing and collection, leading to improvement in discom financial health. Further upgradation of distribution infrastructure will reduce the AT&C losses in the sector. Government has also issued draft National Electricity Policy 2021, which stipulates intention of the Government to increase the share of spot market to 25% by the year 2023, 2024. The draft NEP underlines the most pertinent issues of the power sector with key focus on areas such as promotion of clean and sustainable generation of electricity, development of adequate and efficient transmission system, revitalization of distribution utilities, as well as development of efficient power markets through an increased role of markets. The Government continues to focus on initiatives to further deepen the power market. In its draft regulation, CERC has proposed a mechanism which allows load dispatch centers to procure power to be used for ancillary services through the electricity exchanges for overall grid stability. Ministry of Power issued a discussion paper on MBED with a proposal to give go live to exchanges from 1st of April 2022 with NPCIL generation capacity. MoP has also issued the waiver of ISTS charges for green market for trading through the exchanges in GTAM markets. This will make trading of green power more competitive and further deepen green markets. MoP also issued an order on PPA replacement allowing discounts to exit from PPA on completion of 25 years of useful life, which will lead to the demand which was served by the PPA to be met by the exchange. Even the generation companies will sell their power post PPA at the market and further deepen the market. These initiatives will create an efficient power sector in the country, improve financial health of the distribution companies, and further deepen the power market. Our financial and business performance. On a stand-alone basis, revenue for the quarter grew by 27.1% on year-to-year basis. From INR 80.54 crores in quarter 1 FY 2021 to INR 102.38 crores in quarter 1 of FY 2022. The PAT grew by 48.4%, with PAT margin of 62.1%. During the quarter, electricity volume on the exchange grew by 42.9% on year-to-year basis, and it was 21,266 BUs. The significant growth in volume was driven by substantial increase in electricity consumption, as well as the competitive price discount on the exchange platform. Besides other factors such as availability of adequate domestic tools and vibrant performance of the new market segments, that is RTM and GTAM. The real-time market completed 1 year of its launch on June 21. It has been 1 of the fastest growing market segments on the exchange. The market saw an exceptional performance throughout the quarter and traded the highest ever volume of 1.726 BU in the month of June 2021. Currently, RTM traded 4.635 BU at an average price of INR 3. It is very heartening to see that in a very short span of time, the market has become most dependable platform for the distribution utilities and industries in managing their close to real-time demand supply variations. The quarter also saw green term market recording the highest ever monthly volume of 414 MUs in June 2021. Cumulatively, market traded 937 MUs and has already surpassed green volume achieved in FY 2021, which stood at 785 MUs. Our Green Term Ahead Market at IEX has allowed solar and wind rich states to sell excess energy in the market for the other states to meet their RPO. Industrial consumers are also increasingly buying green power from the exchange. The market has been successfully enabling the participants to procure delivery-based solar and non-solar renewable power in a flexible way at a competitive price, thus greatly contributing towards the nation's renewable energy aspirations. The cross-border electricity trade has generated increased interest from the market participants from the neighboring South Asian countries. Nepal has already started transactions on the exchange platform from 17th of April 2021. Since then it is participating regularly in the exchange platform and has recorded 778 MU of transaction. We are in discussion with Bhutan and Bangladesh, and they are also expected to join shortly on the exchange platform. This exchange will help in developing an integrated South Asian regional power market and supporting efficient and sustainable growth for the energy sector in the entire region. Fiscal 2022 started with a challenging note with surge of COVID-19 across the country. However, the spirit has been resilient and the economic fundamentals are strong. India's GDP is projected to grow at a rate of 9.5% in FY 2022. The electricity consumption is also expected to see good growth during this fiscal. We believe that energy markets are pivotal to totally transforming India's energy economy, and IEX is committed to play an important role in facilitating the much needed efficiency, competitiveness, and sustainability in the energy ecosystem. As the government is working towards creating a favorable policy and regulatory environment to transform the energy sector, we will continue to collaborate with the government and other industry stakeholders to realize this vision. Recently, on our 30th anniversary on 28th June 2021, we launched IGNITE- India Energy Dialogue on vibrant power markets, which convened key leaders such as Secretary Power, Principal Secretary Andhra Pradesh, Chief Regulatory Affairs from CERC, besides several leaders from industry and overseas to discuss the way forward on developing India's power market. As a technology-led company, we will continue to make investments to strengthen and advance our technology infrastructure. As mentioned earlier, we will continue to build upon our recently introduced initiatives such as member API for all market segments, upgrading the web-based interface to also provide online trading, availability of analytics and data insights for the market participants, and also introduce a new mobile app. These measures will enable us to make the overall trading experience seamless and intuitive too, besides positioning Exchange as a best-in-class technology-driven platform. With better availability of domestic coal, conducive policy and regulatory framework in place, growth momentum in the existing market, as well as the upcoming new market segments such as long duration contracts, derivatives, green day-ahead market, ancillary market, and integrated day-ahead market will make the power markets much more dynamic than before. Further, there are also discussions to introduce capacity market to ensure resource adequacy in the sector. Along with this, with increasing volumes on gas exchange, we are very positive about the growth potential of the company. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Can I open the floor for question and answer, sir? Yeah. Yes, please. Yes, sir. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the question and answer session. If you have a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad and wait for your turn to ask the question. If you would like to withdraw your request, you may do so by pressing star and one again. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, please press star and one on your telephone keypad. First question comes from Mohit Kumar from DAM Capital. Please go ahead. Yes, sir. Good afternoon, sir. Congratulations on a very, very good quarter. My first question is, what are the kind of opportunity will arise from ancillary services? In the sense, is it possible to put some number to it? Ancillary services through the exchange, it is expected that this could be about 3,000-4,000 megawatts. The use will be depending on the real-time condition, and role of exchange will be only to collect the bid, track the bid, and pass it on to the NLDC. It is NLDC who will have to, depending on the requirement, use this capacity. Okay. Secondly, sir, what will be open access volumes in RTM market, and when can we expect the GDAM to be launched? Open access volume in the RTM market is very less. It is mostly the distribution company who do the transaction. I think it is about 5-10% only in case of open access. GDAM, we have already filed our petition with the regulator. In fact, there was a hearing in the CERC today only, and we are expecting that by end of August, we should have the approval from CERC, and we should be able to launch it by end of August. Sir, last question. Has there been any incremental discussion on MBED in last few months apart from the discussion paper floated by the Ministry of Power? Oh, the last paper is by Ministry of Power. On that they have invited comments from the different stakeholders. What we understand from the different stakeholders that distribution companies and generator in particular, they are not very comfortable with this discussion paper and have expressed their apprehensions and their concerns to the Ministry of Power. Understood, sir. Thank you, sir, and best of luck. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Bharani, from Spark Capital. Please go ahead. Yeah, good afternoon, sir. Sir, you just mentioned that there have been some concerns raised about the MBED. Could you just highlight these concerns, sir? No, no. Some of the concerns the states have raised are basically, again, their right to resolve power, right to reschedule the power during the day, depending on the demand supply variation. That is one big flexibility which today states have. That will not be there. Further, many states have contracted PPAs paying capacity charges, and they would have to continue to pay capacity charges, whereas the states who have not signed PPA will enjoy that power without paying capacity charges. There are concerns have been raised that we should first look at the resource adequacy, maybe introduce capacity markets kind of concept, and then talk about MBED. MBED is something that can be introduced only when we have all other enabling provisions there in place. The settlement mechanism itself is a very, very complex process. How the disputes between the generator and discoms will be resolved. There are few things which we understand they have raised, but given these things, again, comes for discussion, we will come to know about that. Sure, sir. You are mentioning that we need a capacity market instead of this MBED mechanism. Before the MBED, there should be a capacity market and ensure that each state has adequate contracted, adequate capacity to meet their demand. Correct. That's what I'm saying. Could you elaborate little more on how this capacity market will be structured? There will be only capacity contracted and the price will be discovered in the exchanges. How exactly that works, sir? Normally, capacity market is mandatory market. The regulatory commissions in each state, they are supposed to assess the demand for the next five years. Then see what kind of capacity is contracted and what kind of capacity is further required. They will ask distribution companies to contract capacity for the next five years accordingly. This also can be done through a written route. Right. This, if at all happens, will be for incremental capacities requirement. Correct. My next question is on the integrated DAM market. I'm just trying to understand what will be the need that this will solve, which the existing DAM market is not addressing. See, as you have seen in the electricity market, DAM market is not a price discovery, it is a price matching. No, I meant the DAM, sir. Integrated DAM. What is the need that it is going to solve, which the existing DAM market is not solving? Who will be interested to buy in Yeah. Yes, sir, go ahead. In the TAM market, it is the price matching with what takes place. In the day-ahead market, it is the price discovery what takes place. Right. Participants are more comfortable with the price discovery process because price discovery process is a more transparent process. Distribution companies, they want, from the regulatory point of view, the DAM market. They prefer DAM market. Right in the conventional electricity also, the volumes are more in the DAM market than in the TAM market. Okay. In the DAM market, these are collective transactions. You are basically acting as an aggregator, both on the sell side and the buy side. This is a more efficient market, and that is why Government is also saying that we should introduce DAM market, so that green generators, they have a comfort that, yes, there is a transparent market available. Correct. There is already a mechanism for them to do that through the GTAM market or GDAM market, right? Just trying to understand how this product will be. Yeah. Current mechanism is only through the GTAM market, term ahead market, where somebody can sell power for the whole day or maybe for full week. Correct there is no DAM market at the moment. Correct. In the DAM market, one can sell power for any particular time block on day-ahead basis. Right. In the DAM market, generators will be able to sell the power as per their forecast of the generation. Similarly, distribution company will be able to buy power, basically based on the demand. They don't have to buy a constant power throughout the day. DAM market provides more flexibility. Okay, sir. I will take this offline. My final question is on the derivatives product. What will be the kind of arrangement we will have with, say, NCDEX. Mr. Varun, sorry to interrupt you. Yeah. You may join back the queue for your further questions, sir. Thank you. Oh, you cut me off. Yes, sir. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Mr. Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you. My first question is, the peak demand of 200 GW in July was during the afternoon time. Entire commercial demand may not have come back. Traction demand is lower than pre-COVID-19 levels. How would you read this peak demand number and what would be your expectation for fresh peak demand through the balance fiscal FY 2022? This peak demand in the month of July, which has crossed 200 GW, was on a particular day. What I'm seeing is that demand is remaining at a very high level regularly. The power consumption is increasing, and power consumption in the first quarter has increased in the country by 17%. Though it was on a low base because last year we had lockdown. Yes. We are seeing now also there is a good increase in the power. As far as peak demand is concerned, in the month of September, when hydro, that recedes and it is a high humid environment and the agricultural demand is also there, it may cross even 200 GW. It may be something around 210-215 GW. Okay. What would be your updates on the timeline for launch of LDC contracts and resumption of trading in REC versus what you communicated to us post the March quarter results? Long-duration contracts, I'm really unable to say any timeline because the case is pending in the Supreme Court. There is nothing to be done in that case. It is only a one-day hearing because Government of India has already filed affidavit that Government of India has decided about the jurisdiction. Supreme Court only has to basically adopt that and issue a clarification. Unfortunately, because of the COVID, only urgent issues are being taken up. This matter has not come up for hearing. I think it is almost about 1.5 years now, and nothing has happened on this. We were very hopeful last year only. I'm sorry, I'm unable to give any timeline on this. Your second question? Should we factor in LDC for the balance fiscal FY 2022 or the last quarter, or should we completely rule it out? I think last quarter will be clarification. Okay. On resumption of trading in REC? Yeah. REC trading, in the first week of July, there were few hearings, but then nothing concrete. Ministry of Power has been made a party to that because there was a discussion paper issued by Ministry of Power also on REC floor and floor price. I think next they have a hearing is sometime in the month of August. Only after we get an order, as of now, it looks that it may be sometime only in September, not before that. The order will come in September, but trading can resume only after how many months from the order? No, no. Once the order comes, we didn't start. We resume the trading from the next day itself. The point is, you can't really say anything about the order. Is authority when they will issue the order. It is expected that the order should come sometime in the month of September. Whether it will come or not, can't really say that. Okay. Thank you so much, sir. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, if you have a question, please press star 1 on your telephone keypad. Participants are kindly requested to restrict with 2 questions in the initial round and may join the queue for further questions. Next question comes from Kunal Thanvi from Banyan Tree Advisors Private Limited. Please go ahead. Hi. Thanks, Vidya, for opportunity and congratulations on the good results. I hope the team is doing well and safe. I had one question around the RTM market. We always understand that we have launched that product to take care of the DSM mechanism that is there in the short-term market. When we look at the FY 2021 numbers for the short-term market, what we see is that the bilateral volumes have come down and the DSM volumes have fell down to the last year level itself. Whereas we have seen a significant rise in the RTM volumes. How should one read into this? We've been asking this question for a while now, but not being able to get a grip over it. Is it that we have gained market share from the bilateral market? How should one read into the growth in the RTM market whereas DSM volumes are still lying around where it was in FY 2020 itself? RTM market was not for replacing the DSM alone. That was one intent, otherwise, the intent was basically to meet demand variations on the real-time basis. This demand variation on real-time basis is happening because of the renewable generation and also outage of units or intake losses. In the earlier system, after the day-ahead market, there was no other opportunity for distribution company to purchase power. Now they have another option available on real-time basis, they are using this market very effectively to manage their demand supply variation. As far as DSM is concerned, I think on that front, we also did some analysis, regulatory commissions also have done some analysis. What we have come to a conclusion now is that since the DSM rate is the average rate of day-ahead markets, there is no incentive for distribution companies not to withdraw from the grid and buy from the RTMs. DSM rate is almost same as the day-ahead market rate. That is why now regulatory is, what we understand, reviewing this DSM mechanism and maybe the DSM rates will be made as final rate so that there will be incentive for them to buy power in the RTM market than to overdraft on the grid. Only when that happens, maybe the DSM volume will start shifting to the RTM market. Okay, sir. In the DSM market also, if the draw is beyond a particular limit, then there is a penalty. At least those contents have reduced significantly. Okay, sir. Is it right to assume that in terms of the potential of RTM market as a product, it is not restricted to 23 states, which is like the DSM. It is DSM plus the other short-term market that we see on a overall basis is what RTM is trying to target. Is that understanding right? RTM market is not limited to the DSM volume. RTM market is going to meet the requirement of distribution company on the real-time basis and also take care of the demand supply variations and renewable generation variations. I'm sure volume in this market, the opportunity is much larger. Reduction of DSM is one component of the RTM market. Sure. That was my first question. Thanks for it. The second question is in terms of the new products or new avenues. We have been sourced the LDC and REC, something that has been sourced from the regulatory perspective. Apart from that, do we have any plans for new products from the company itself, apart from the GDAM, which we have already discussed? Any color on that? New product is, one is Long Duration Contract that I told you maybe in the last week, last quarter of this year, it may happen. GDAM should happen in the month of August, last week of August. REC trading, that should resume from September. ISRA trading also should start from August. ISRA trading happens once in three year time. It is due this year. On that also, discussions are in the advanced stage now, and we are expecting trading to start in the month of August. In addition to this, we are continuously working on our existing these two new products, which is RTM and the GDAM market and the cross-border trade. I'm sure in these two markets also there should be significant increase in the volumes. Sure. A follow from that, in the cross trade markets, can you throw some color on the kind of opportunities we see next 3 to 5 years? What we understand is that only day-ahead market product is what we cater to for that particular category. How should one look at that particular market from a 3 to 5 year perspective? I couldn't get your question properly. Are you talking about long-term market for a 3-5 years contract? No. Cross-trade market, cross-border market. How should one look at from a 3-5 years opportunity? Okay. The cross-border market, we are expecting in the next five years, the volume in this market should be something about 8-10 billion units kind of thing. It also depends on the transmission capacity between the countries, and between India, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and India, Bhutan. India, Bhutan, of course, there are no issues. In India, Bangladesh, India, Nepal, the transmission constants are there. They have limited capacity, whereas the demand in these countries is more. The capacity building is happening in the transmission sectors. I think in the next five years, this market should be about 8-10 BU. Sure. Thanks. I'll get back in touch with you. Thanks a lot for answering my questions. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Devansh Nigotia from Securities Investment Management. Please go ahead. Thanks for the opportunity, and congratulations on good numbers. One is, in case of There's a problem with that, yes. Mr. Devansh? Hello? Yeah. Hello. Yes. We are not audible, sir. Can you repeat your question? Yes. Sure. Sir, our Mr. Devansh? Hello, sir. We are not audible. Hello. Can you hear me? Am I audible? Yes, sir. You are audible. Please go ahead, sir. Yeah. Sir, in case of PPAs which are completing 25 years and are expiring, do we have any kind of quantum on the power volume which will be without PPAs, let's say, over the next one or two years? Do we have any kind of numbers? What we have seen from the newspapers and from our discussions, many states are willing to exit from the gas-based power plants because these gas-based plants are more than 25 years old. Quantum of domestic gas availability is very low. Imported LNG gas is very costly. These plants are operating at a PLF of hardly about 20%-25%, and the states have to pay capacity charge for the full 100% capacity. The states have now, because since 25 years period is over, they want to exit from those plants. sir, any kind of- There are one or two thermal plants also where their variable cost is high and 25 years is over. Our estimate is it could be about 4,000-5,000 megawatt capacity. Okay. 4,000-5,000 megawatts. In case of ESCerts, what would be our expectation in terms of volumes? 1,300 MU which was done three years back. ESCerts volume this year should be about 3.5 BU. Okay. 3.5 billion units. 3,500,000 units. 35 lakh units? 35 lakh metric tons. Okay. Sir, in case of Green Term Ahead Market, the volume has been really robust over the last one month. Some soft points if you can give both on the demand side and supply side. What are the things that are happening that has really changed the scale of volume, and how should one really look at this number going forward? Green market is active because during this time, wind generation is very high. That is one reason. The power which is being sold in the green market is power sold by the distribution company. The states who have contracted green power more than their RP obligation. Earlier, they were shutting down those plants. Now they are selling that power. It is good for the generators. They are not being asked to shut down. It is good for the states because they are now able to get additional revenue by selling the power in the market. These trends should continue for the next 4, 5 months till the wind is high, wind generation is high. From October, it will be mainly solar. Okay. April to September would be the main season for wind, and solar will be throughout the year. Yes. Okay. Thanks a lot, sir, for addressing all questions. I'll join back in touch with you. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Prithvi Raj, from Unifi Capital. Please go ahead. Sir, my question is for the Long Duration Contract. How are we planning for the margin mechanism here? We have designed a margin mechanism where we will take margins maybe for the open access charges and then maybe for 2 days or 3 days of margin for the transaction, and then they will have to pay every day basis depending on the quantum of power delivered. It is a margin mechanism which has been developed and which has been put up to the regulator also for approval. Okay, you collect margin on a rolling basis for every 3 days? Yeah, rolling basis. Yes. On rolling basis. And second- You can't ask margins to run the whole market at once. Right. Second on the demand side, I couldn't get your question properly. Very difficult to say that because in the green market, it is only the states who are selling it. There are a couple of generators also, but the renewable power merchant capacity quantity is very low at the moment. Looking at the rate of the last 1 year, I think the rate is around INR 20.20 for the solar generation, and it is around INR 390 for the wind generation. Looking at these rates, maybe generators will now also go ahead for setting up merchant capacity. I think this market will need some time to develop. Okay. That's it, sir. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Bharat Sheth from Quest Investment. Please go ahead. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. Sir, recently one more player has been allowed to open the exchange. Can you throw some light on the competitive scenario that may emerge post that player starts operating? First of all, let me correct you. There is already one more player who is there in the market. One more is there, one more is allowed. Yes, one more is allowed now. Don't worry. From the last 13 years, we were doing the market, and we have more than 95% market share. See, as an exchange, our job is to create value for the participants. Our job is to innovate, provide new products, interact with the customer, understand their needs, and provide new products to meet the requirement. Provide efficient technology platform. Okay. This is something that we have been doing in the last 12 years. Because of that, we have ensured the customer loyalty. I'm sure this will continue in future also, and we will be able to maintain that customer loyalty. Okay. Sir, on this inter-country, that is Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, this market, are we expecting to operate both sides? India selling as well as buying, or it will be one side? What will be the payment mechanism to ensure that this business continue on a longer term? This payment mechanism is in rupee, because we have to appoint an Indian agency to do transactions on their behalf. Okay. Second is, in case of Bangladesh and Nepal, since these countries have a deficit of power, mostly it is buy by them. In case of Bhutan, since they are surplus with power, maybe it is going to be sell by. Okay. Our rate will be the same, I mean, charging INR 0.02 both the side? Yes. Our fee is same. Okay. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Next question comes from Swarnima Maheswari from Edelweiss. Please go ahead. Hello, sir. Good afternoon. Congratulations for good set of numbers. Two questions. Sir, first, on the REC side, now assuming that this year also no trading happens, we actually fast forward to FY 2023. Do you think that the bunching up of trade will happen for FY 2021 as far as for FY 2022, and you can see something like 12 billion-15 billion units of volume in FY 2023? Is there a case that for participants to actually go for their RPO obligations, they have already started sourcing through your GTAM product, and going forward, GDAM also? First of all, I'm not willing to assume that the trading will not happen in this year. I told you, generators have filed urgent application with the CERC. They are going to clear the meter. I'm sure the order should come in the month of September. We will have good six, seven months for trading of REC market. We should see good volume growth in this market. In case, by any chance, if the order don't come, then yes, this RPO obligation will get carry forward. Obligor entities are supposed to meet the requirement. A part of the requirement is also met through the GTAM market. What we are seeing in the GTAM market, it is a different set of buyers. Maybe the utilities who were buying RECs, some of them are also participating in the GTAM, but then we have also new participants in the GTAM market. Okay. You mean that in GTAM or GDAM, the set of buyers is not the ones really looking for their RPO obligations? Not the same. Okay, that's interesting. A part of the buyers are also to meet the RPO obligation, but there are new buyers also. Okay. Got it. Right. Sir, just a very small observation. We have given the segmental reporting, and I was just looking at the gas exchange revenues. I was just wondering that why, first of all, there will be revenues from gas exchange in 30th June 2020, which is Q1 FY 2021, because we have not commenced the business at that point in time. Second, why will the gas exchange revenues negative in Q4 FY 2021? Can I ask my colleague, Mr. Vineet Harlalka, to respond to this question? Sure. First of all, the exchange was launched in June 2020. One or two trades took place during that initial phase. That's why some revenue was occurring for the gas exchange during Q1 of FY 2020. During Q4 of FY 2021, a rectification entry made because what happened, the company was recognizing the admission fee of the member at the time of admission, which was just resting because of the admission, that revenue recognition was deferred. That was the entry during the closing of the account was there. That one-time adjustment was there of INR 4.5 million. Okay. The entry got rectified in Q4? Yeah. The fee, the income earned by the exchange and the admission of the new member, that got deferred to three and a half years. All right. Okay. Got it, sir. Right, sir. Thank you so much. I'll get back in queue. Thank you, sir. I request the speaker to increase the volume because the volume is very low. Thank you, sir. The next question comes from Sujeet Jain from ASK Group. Please go ahead. Good evening, team. Congratulations on a good set of numbers. Sir, my question is similar to what one previous participant, Saurinder, asked you. Now, which is, what would be the difference between, because you mentioned in the presser you'll be launching LDC, GDAM, integrated GDAM. What is the difference between GDAM and integrated GDAM? No, it is integrated market. Integrated market consists of first, a renewable generator can sell power in the GDAM market, and if the power is not cleared in the GDAM market, then he has the option to transfer it within the DAM market. That is why it is known as integrated market. The GDAM is same. There is no separate GDAM market. GDAM is a part of the integrated market. Got it on that. What is the traction in our policy advocacy effort, where in solar power auctions, a certain percentage can be allowed as merchant power, because that will completely open up a new area for the exchanges and for the short term markets? We have been doing this policy advocacy, and in fact, if you see SECI tenders, there they have already written that generators can keep up to 15% capacity for sale to the market. It's a different story that the generators at the moment are not keeping any capacity for sale in the market. Looking at the clearing price which has taken place in the GDAM market, what we now understand that there are generators who are willing to keep some capacity for sale in the market also, as merchant capacity. We are also working with Government of India to bring new products to deepen this green market in the country. See, one of the product is which is popular in the Western countries, that with industries or the MNCs or the data centers, there are companies who are ESG companies, they want to go green. Their demand pattern is even uniform. Their solar power is available only during particular hours of the day. It is very difficult for these companies to go through the process of scheduling this power. What they do is, they get into a contract with the renewable generator, that I'm committing you the rate under the PPA. You sell this power in the market, in a conventional market. That is a three-hour market or the RTM market. If the rate is lower than the PPA rate, I'll pay the difference, and you will give me the green attribute of that, so that they can comply with the ESG requirement. These are the kind of products on which we are also talking to MNRE and Ministry of Power, and they are very receptive of this idea. We are working on this kind of products. I'm sure in the time to come, within the next 1 or 2 years, you will find good people in this market also. Market takes some time to develop. We will have to work on these kind of new products. First, do policy advocacy, then talk to the generators. I'm quite hopeful that this market will be the opportunity for us, and it should provide reasonably good volume. Thanks, sir. One last question is on other streams of revenues which globally exchanges pursue, which is basically you internally have a division which actually creates software and products for the exchange itself. That can be put in a separate entity and can be monetized, and also analytics products. See, as of now, my software team is busy in developing products for my exchange business only. In the last 1 year, we have developed new product for the RTM market, GTAM market, now cross-border. We are working on developing integrated market, where we will have GDAM and DAM together. We are also working on this web-based platform mobile app. Team is busy with developing these products. I don't think for the next 2, 3 years they will have time to do work for others. This is a very specialized area, so we would like them to continue to do with these exchange development activities. You said about analytics. Today we are doing a lot of analytics, but then we are providing these analytics to our sector participants free of cost, basically to create awareness of the market, and it is a marketing activity. Maybe in future, when we find that, yes, there is a potential to earn some revenue out of it, we can explore that. Today we are doing it free of cost, providing the analytics to the market participants and telling them how they can optimize their power procurement cost and how can they take advantage of the market. Sure, Balji. Thank you so much. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Ronak Chadha, from Oregon Capital. Please go ahead. Hi, sir. Thanks for the opportunity. I just have one question. It is partly answered. I'll just repeat myself. Share of renewables is going up in the whole power generation sector going forward. How does this shift to a higher share of renewables then impact IEX business? You briefly touched upon this point, but if you could elaborate more, is it positive, negative or neutral on power? Thank you. Every change provides opportunity. I believe in that. Shift to high renewable is also a big opportunity. We are working on that, how to make use of that. As I told you, renewable itself is going to provide opportunity. We have introduced GTAM market. We are going to introduce GDAM market. We are working to develop new products in this market. One thing what has happened is because of the high renewable, the pressure on the coal has reduced now. The coal availability has improved. Auction rate for the coal has reduced. As a result of that, the rate in that DAM market has reduced. From that point of view also, renewable is positive for the exchange. Anything else you want? No, sir. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Alok Ranjan from India Infoline Asset Management Company. Please go ahead. Hi. Good afternoon, sir. One clarification on the RTM thing that you were mentioning, that the open access is 5%-10%, and most of the volume comes from the distribution. You mentioned that it's not coming majorly from the DSM. Want to understand, is it coming within the short term volume or it was outside the short term volume earlier and a new volume has got created into the short term volume overall? Based on the analysis what we have done, what I find is that this is the additional volume where either the load shedding was happening or backing down was happening. I think now there is a real-time market where this optimum utilization of these things are happening. Got it. Earlier if a 200 MW or 500 MW unit trips, distribution company had no option to purchase power to meet the demand. Now they have a option available. Got it, sir. Sir, if the overall, especially in the slide numbers, where you have given the total breakup of how the units gets distributed in the long term bilateral. One opportunity is the DSM, which is 1.8%, and within the bilateral, 3.4%, some opportunity is there for us in the near term. Either the long term is there, from where you are saying that 4 to 5 gigawatts can come out of the PPA. Is it like the new capacity addition that is happening, a major part is coming into the short term market? See, opportunity for the Exchange is coming from, 1 is that shift is happening from the bilateral to Exchange. Over the year, if you see the volume which was happening in the bilateral is going down and Exchange volume is increasing. Second opportunity is shift from the DSM in the real time market. I am sure after the revision of DSM mechanism rates, that will also happen. Third is the incremental demand, and that is the biggest opportunity. If the demand in the country is increasing at a rate of 5%, which means that 70-75 billion units is additional demand. Good part of this demand will come to the short term market. Fourth is again, exiting the long term PPA after the useful life. Looking at all these things, I personally feel that every year there is opportunity in the market. Opportunity for the short term market, it can be about 50 million units. Got it. Sir, last clarification from my side. In our total volume, what is the direct industrial share and how the trend is on that side? This year, the industrial share is about 20%. 20% of the volume is directly purchased by industries like ACC or any other company. Yes. Okay. Yes, 20%. How the trend it has been going over the last, let's say two, three years? Trend is, share of industry is going down. It is mainly because of the barriers which are created by the state regulatory commissions. Okay. To be precise, the share of open access consumers in this quarter was 15%, and last year it was 20%. Got it. That's all from my side. Thank you, sir. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from S Ramesh from Nirmal Bang Equities. Please go ahead. Good afternoon, thank you very much. On the gas exchange, can you share with us the volumes you are doing? Eventually, what is the kind of market share you expect to get for volume traded in the exchange? How is the overall gas consumption in the Indian markets? I think as far as the gas exchange is concerned, time has not come to talk about the volume on the exchange platform, because volume what is happening is very small. What is more important is to create a framework for gas market. We are working with the Government and regulator to create that framework, and I'm happy to share with you that work is now happening for creating these enablers. One of the biggest enabler required is, there is no system operator in the gas market like we have in the power sector, that's LDC, RLDC, and NLDC. Now Government actually has issued a discussion paper to create gas transportation system operator. Secondly is bringing gas under GST so that you can have a standard contract across the country. On that also work is happening, though there has been difference to GST council. Third is rationalization of pipeline tariff. On that also regulatory commission is working. Fourth is infrastructure. Lot of LNG terminals work is happening on that now. What I understand, RLNG regasification capacity is going to be doubled in the next 2 years from 40 million tons to about 70 million tons in the next 2 years. There are terminals which are under construction on the east coast and the south coast. These 2 terminals will get commission and the pipeline also, in the eastern side, in the southern India is under construction. We will have an integrated gas grid in the country. With these enablers and the infrastructure in place, I think we will see meaningful volume growth on the exchange platform. Sir, if you have to achieve a certain amount of critical mass in terms of volumes and revenue, if you look at the current asset currency for your power business, would the capital investment be comparable for a similar revenue, or would it be different for the gas exchange? Yeah. As far as the investment is concerned, I think it is going to be the same kind of investment what we made in the power exchange. Only thing is in power exchange, over the year, because of development of new products, there has been additional CapEx on the technology side. The team size is also much bigger because our interaction is with all the states now. In the gas exchange, we have started the activity. Business development team is working on the business side, and then thirdly, we have a policy advocacy and regulatory team which is working with the regulatory and the Government for creating the enablers. If you have in, squeeze in one more question. Any thoughts on emission trading being introduced, say, similar to what they're doing in Europe? Pardon? Can you repeat the question? Any thoughts on developing products similar to the emission trading products you have in Europe? Yeah. Emission trading products, this is something we are, again, talking about it. We have analyzed different markets which are operating in the European countries. Again, this is something, again, we are discussing with Bureau of Energy Efficiency to create this market. That's it. Thank you very much. We are working on it. Thank you very much. Yeah. Thanks a lot. That was very helpful. Thank you very much, and have a good day. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Praveen Kumar from Actis. Please go ahead. Hello. Good afternoon. Thanks for the opportunity. My question was on the cash and investment that were lying on the books of more than INR 4,000 crores. Could you throw some light on what is the plan to utilize that cash? As of now, last year we started the gas exchange, so there was good investment made in gas exchange. We are also looking at other opportunities. Otherwise, we will give it back to the investors. Okay. We have a policy of giving high dividend. We have also declared yesterday final dividend. Earlier we gave INR 2.5, now it is INR 1.5, so total is about INR 4 on INR 1 share. Okay. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Next question comes from Abhishek Puri from Axis Capital. Please go ahead. Yes. Good afternoon, sir. Sir, 2 questions. One, just to understand the GTAM opportunity better. You've explained some part of it, but you used to lose out in high wind season and whenever there's higher solar production, because that excess electricity used to go waste, and there was curtailment. Can that be traded back on GTAM and is that opportunity pretty large? If you can spell out that amount that can come in here, through GTAM. Second is, you are getting a lot of levers, a lot of new products over the next 1 to 2 years, including derivative settlements, long term, GTAM. If you can spell out the opportunity and the size that you're looking for the exchanges in the next, say 3 to 5 years period. Abhishek, I will not like to make any estimate for the future, but I can only tell you one thing. Any new product which we have introduced has given a significant volume. RTM market, we introduced last year. In one year, I think we got something about 12 billion units out of that. This year, it is 1.5 billion units every month, more than that even. This market should give us something about 18 billion-20 billion units in this year. GTAM market. Sir, which is why I'm asking, sir, because last year- When we started in August GTAM market, we were doing just about 2, 3 million units in a day. In this month, we are doing almost about 15 million units a day. In the month of July, on a single day, we did a trading of 150 million units. Our job is to introduce products, interact with the participants, tell them what this product is, how can they stand to benefit out of it. I think, I believe one thing, in this sector, the opportunity size is very, very large. Our job is to tell the market participants, and I'm sure the kind of growth which is happening, 40% growth, and if you look at our third, fourth quarter, and this quarter, continuously it is a 40% growth. This is all happening because of the new products. I'm sure the new products which we are talking about, Long Duration Contracts or the GTAM, in these contracts also, there will be good volume growth. Difficult to make any estimate on that, but we are working on the product. We are working with the participants. Sir, why I asked this question is because last year when we had the analyst meet and we discussed about the opportunity in the RTM market, I think it was explained that 15 to 18 billion units. We have already crossed that within one year of the launch. That's why just trying to understand if you have the same estimate for the other products that are coming in. Approximate number, we'll not hold you up for that, but as an opportunity size, what market you can address with those opportunities over, say, next three-year period will help us model and understand the company's growth path better. In case of long duration contracts, the volume happening in the bilateral market. That is the addressable market size, which is something about 40 billion units. It depends on how much out of that we are able to get. In case of GTAM market, GTAM market size is very, very high. If Government of India is talking about creating 175 gigawatts by 2022, and 450 gigawatts by 2030, I think the renewable generation is going to be very, very high in the country and we should get good share out of that because now distribution companies are not preferring PPA for the entire requirement. They are only getting into PPA for the base load and rest is through the market. They want to prefer that. Thank you so much and all the best. We will work on GTAM market to make estimate for the next 5 years. Frankly speaking, I haven't made any real estimate on that. We were concentrating more on the product and interacting with the participants. Next time I'll give you some estimate on this also. That'll be great, sir. Thank you. All the best. Thank you. Thank you, sir. Ladies and gentlemen, that would be the last question for the day. I hand over the floor to the management for closing comments. I think it was a great opportunity for us to explain the market with the recent developments, and it was good interaction. We look forward to similar interactions maybe in the next quarter. Thank you. Thank you very much. Thank you, sir. Thank you, everyone. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference for today. Thank you for your participation and for using Chorus Call's conference call service. You may disconnect your lines now. Thank you and have a pleasant evening.