Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Indian Energy Exchange Q3 FY 2024 results call, hosted by Axis Capital Limited. As a reminder, all participants' lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star then zero on your touch-tone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital Limited. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thank you, Manoj. Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. On behalf of Axis Capital, I'm pleased to welcome you all for the IEX Q3 FY 2024 earnings conference call. We have with us the management team of IEX, led by Mr. S.N. Goel, Chairman and Managing Director. We will begin with the opening remarks from Mr. Goel, followed by an interactive Q&A session. Over to you, sir.
Good evening, friends. I welcome you all to the IEX earnings call for quarter three, FY 2024. With me today on this call are Mr. Rohit Bajaj, Executive Director of Business Development and Strategy; Mr. Vineet Harlalka, our CFO and Company Secretary; Mr. Amit Kumar, Head of Operations and Technology; Mr. Pranav Garg, Head of Investor Relations and Communication; and Mr. Aditya Dar. Friends, the Indian economy continues to be the world's fastest growing major economy, with aspirations to become the third largest within this decade. According to the first advanced estimate released by the National Statistical Office, the economy is expected to grow at 7.3% in the current fiscal, which is helped by government spending and a pickup in manufacturing. This is slightly faster than 7.2% growth, which was recorded in the last year, 2022, 2023.
Coming to economic indicators, India's manufacturing PMI for Q3 FY 2024 came in at 55.5. Manufacturing has remained expansionary on the back of increased private consumption and capital expenditure. Services activity also continued to expand, with the services PMI for quarter three FY 2024 coming at 56.8. The services index has remained above 50 for nearly 30 months at a stretch, the longest sustained since August 2021... 2011. On the power sector front, peak power demand remained at high up to 21 GW in October before declining towards the end of the quarter. This was after a record high of 262.4 GW in September recorded this year. Electricity consumption during quarter three 2024, recorded at around 380 billion units, saw an increase of 10% on year-on-year basis.
States like Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu remain drivers of the surge in demand in power. According to the CEA estimate, electricity consumption is expected to continue to increase at a CAGR of 6%-7% over the next 8-10 years. Looking at trends in demand and its expectation in the coming year, recently in November, Honorable Minister of Power, R.K. Singh, spoke about the need for thermal capacity addition to meet the increasing peak load in the country. The minister was of the view that due to increasing electricity demand in the country and the prevailing demand supply situation, the required thermal capacity required will be about 283 GW by 2032. Against this, today we have installed capacity of 214 GW.
Already, 27 GW of thermal capacity is under construction, and government has decided to add another 50 GW of new thermal capacity that will help in meeting the growing demand of the power. It has been also proposed to add good part of this capacity for sale to the market, as seller will be able to get adequate return by selling to the exchange, and capacity addition can be done faster without the need of PPA. The minister also mentioned that huge amount of funds will be necessary to create such capacity, and it is believed that REC and PFC will finance a large part of this. Additionally, the minister noted that country's requirement for 24x7 availability of power requires a double engine that is renewable as well as thermal capacity.
With 180 GW of renewable installed capacity, India remains on track at its target to achieve 50% of the capacity from non-fossil fuel sources by 2030. In addition to this, 140 GW of the green energy capacity is under planning and implementation, and this is all above the government target of 50 GW of adding capacity that government is planning to add every year till 2030. To enable our integration, the NEP has projected a storage capacity requirement of 74 GW by 2032, consisting of pump storage of 27 GW capacity and battery-based storage of 47 GW. Recently, under the government's viability gap funding plan, the SECI has awarded India's first pilot project of 500 MW battery storage system.
wherein 40% capacity is open capacity for sale to the market in the, through the exchange to meet the peak hour demand. Additionally, there is a government push towards green hydrogen mission. The push for green hydrogen of 5 million tons per annum by 2030 alone would require 125 GW of green energy. On the fuel side, during the quarter, India's coal production increased by a robust 13.1% on year-over-year basis, and the production level was at, it has reached almost about 256 million tons. Coal dispatched to the power sector increased by 11.7% on year-over-year basis to 203.5 million tons. E-auction coal premium has continued to decline since the beginning of this financial year. The coal premium under SHAKTI auction has come down to almost about 40% now.
Coal inventory as on 31st December 2023, stood at 13 days. The imported coal prices have also come down. For 4,200 GR coal, the last year the prices were almost about $90, it has come down to $58 per ton. Another good thing is imported gas prices have also reduced significantly. Last year, imported gas prices were in the range of twenty dollars per ton, twenty dollar per MMBtu, now they have come down to almost about $9 per MMBtu. And if the prices come down to $7-$8 per MMBtu, the variable cost of using the gas will be only about INR 6-7, and I am sure, almost 11,000-12,000 MW of the gas-based capacity which is available in the country, that can be put on bar for meeting the peak hour demand.
We are now witnessing a scenario wherein there is no fuel shortage. On the exchange, the improved supply side scenario has resulted in increased sell liquidity since November. Sell bids in collective auctions increased by 25% on year-on-year basis in November and 18% in December. This led to easing of prices on the exchange. Average market clearing price in the DAM market was INR 5 per unit, compared with INR 5.88 per unit in quarter two of this year. On the regulatory and policy front, the regulatory and policy environment continues to be conducive for power market development. Let us now talk about the noteworthy regulatory updates and policy initiatives for the sector. CERC has implemented the Indian Electricity Grid Code, the sharing of inter-state transmission charges regulations, and long-awaited GNA regulations from October 1, 2023.
The salient features of these regulations are, which are market friendly, the long-standing anomaly in transmission charge between collective and bilateral transactions has been corrected now. With this, during the quarter, we witnessed a reduction in volume in our Day-Ahead Contingency market, and consequently witnessed an increase in volume in the Day-Ahead Market. Volume in the DAC market in quarter one was 2 billion units, in quarter two it was 2.6 billion units, it has now reduced to merely 0.4 billion units, and transactions have now shifted to the DAM, in the DAM segment. At nearly 15 billion units in quarter three volume for DAM, these were higher by 17.5% as compared to quarter one, and 30% as compared to quarter two of this year. This trend is expected to continue in the future also.
Under GNA regulations, transmission charges in collective transactions will be applicable only for the buy quantum in excess of their GNA. Buyers will be able to utilize GNA optimally by buying power in the DAM and RTM market. Under IEGC, generators with long-term PPA will be able to sell the URS power not requisitioned by the beneficiaries in the day-ahead market without the consent of the buyers. Similarly, in efforts to bring URS power in the market, Ministry of Power has proposed amendment of late payment surcharge rules, which mandates generators to offer URS power in the market. These rules also provide for penalty in terms of reduced fixed charges to GenCos if they fail to offer URS power in the market. This will improve sell-side liqui ity in the exchange platform.
Generators are now allowed to purchase in the DAM and RTM market to meet their supply obligations in case of shutdown or the forced outages. Interstate transmission charges and losses will now be only applicable for buyers, which will provide a level playing field for all generators irrespective of their location, and will facilitate competition on the exchange platform. These regulations will also facilitate energy transition in a big way by providing flexibility to thermal generators to replace their brown power with green power, introduction of RE aggregators, and connectivity to RE generating capacity of 50 MW and above. This will deepen green market at the exchange in future.
Additionally, Ministry of Power extended the time period for Section 11 directive to imported coal-based power plants up to 30th June 2024, to enable supply from imported coal-based power plants in the system and to counter anticipated surge in demand in the upcoming summer months. The Ministry of Coal has amended the SHAKTI policy in November to allow power plants, including power generators without PPA, to sell power on the in all segments of the power exchange. Earlier, it was only limited to the DAM market, now they can sell power in all segments, in DAM, RTM and the TAM market. The CERC issued its order for increasing the frequency of REC trading on power exchanges twice a month. Earlier, it was once in a month only, and have allowed fungibility of different types of RECs.
Consequently, with added flexibility and increased frequency of trading, liquidity has increased in the REC market, and because of the removal of REC base price, REC prices have come down. Earlier, the base price was INR 1,000, so transactions were happening at INR 1,000. Now, with the removal of the base price, the REC transactions are now – last transactions were at INR 360 per REC. Significant reduction, and as a result of that, REC volumes also increased on the exchange platform. It was 65% higher in quarter three in comparison to last year. CEA has finalized the phasing plan for thermal plants to bring their technical minimum operations up to 40%, which is currently at 55%. This move will help in adding more RE capacity and efficient integration with the grid.
Ministry of Power has provided repowering of life extension for wind power projects, allowing such generators to supply excess power on power exchanges. All these measures will lead to a further improvement in sell liquidity on the exchange, leading to a decline in power prices. This is expected to present an opportunity for DISCOMs and commercial and industrial consumers to optimize their power procurement costs. Friends, during this quarter, IEX undertook significant initiatives. We are honored to be a part of the groundbreaking Green Credit Program launched by Honorable Prime Minister during the recently concluded COP28. Our wholly-owned subsidiary, International Carbon Exchange, was engaged for the development of green credit program registry, trading platform, and web portal. On our core business, we are awaiting approval from CERC on our petition for extending the term and contract from 90 days to 11 months to provide better opportunity for our DISCOMs.
In terms of business performance, IEX achieved 28.3 billion units of traded volume across all segments during quarter three of FY 2024, growing 16.8% on year-on-year basis. This volume includes 25.9 billion units of conventional power and 0.4 billion units from the green market segment. The exchange also traded 20.3 lakh certificates, which is during the quarter. Our gas exchange, IGX, celebrated its third anniversary in December and has since inception cumulatively traded more than 900 lakh MMBtu in gas volumes. During the quarter, due to wide variation in demand and supply of gas, IGX traded volume declined 65% on year-on-year basis to 84 lakh MMBtu. However, on nine-month basis, IGX volume was down only by 7% from April to December.
The profit after tax for IGX for nine-month period increased by 14% from INR 16.3 crore in nine months of FY 2023 to INR 18.6 crore in nine months of FY 2024. As gas prices continue their downward trend, volume at IGX will pick up in the going forward. And I'm sure in this summer month, and with the operation of gas-based plants, our gas exchange will have better opportunities. Let me now summarize the financial performance of the company for this quarter. On standalone basis, the company recorded a PAT growth of 25.5%, increasing from INR 71.2 crore in quarter three of FY 2023 to INR 89.3 crore in quarter three of FY 2024.
On a consolidated basis, revenue for quarter 3 of FY 2024 increased by 20.3% on year-on-year basis to INR 141.2 crores from INR 117.4 crore in quarter 3 of FY 2023. Consolidated PAT during the quarter came to INR 91.8 crores, higher by 18.9% on year-on-year basis. For fiscal year 2024, the Board of Directors of the company have announced an interim dividend of 1%, equivalent to 100% of the face value of the equity shares. With improving coal production and inventory and easing coal and gas prices, we expect rationalization of power price on the exchange and volumes to further improve in the coming few months. As India looks to look forward to a 20 GW thermal capacity in this financial year, thermal generation will increase by almost about 10%.
This will lead to increased sell liquidity on the exchange. With the CEA's expectation of power demand to soar above 256 GW in FY25 and improved sell-side liquidity, I'm sure exchange volumes will continue to increase. Thank you, friends, and now we can have question answer.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on their touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use handsets while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles.... The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Good evening, and congratulations on a good quarter. So first question is, sir, on the new GNA regulation that kicked in from October, I guess. So have you gained any market share after the new GNA regulation kicking in? And can you please quantify market share in Q3 FY 2024?
Yes, our market share for quarter three has definitely improved, because if you have to compare with quarter one and quarter two, as I told you, that, DAC volumes have reduced. If you take, all the three exchanges together, then also there is a significant reduction in the trading volume in the DAC, and that quantum has shifted to the day market and RTM market.
Is it possible to quantify the market share?
It's all right. Yeah. So, in the month of November and December, November, our overall market share was 91%. December, it increased, further increased to 95%. If I talk about quarter as a whole, it is little below 90, about 87, 88%. So we have seen significant improvement recently. I'm talking about total, including certificates.
Including certificates.
Yes. Yes. So if I talk about electricity, in December, it is 97%, 96%.
The second question-
Significant improvement in the market share with the auction of volume in DAC and movement from DAC to Day-Ahead Market.
So the second question is on the surplus you said, the cost-plus, the cost-plus power plant transferring to the exchanges. So this has been in talks for last few years. Has there been any change in the particular quarter, in the sense the government has come out with new regulation, new notification, which you believe can increase the liquidity on the exchanges because of this particular, because of this. Can you please comment on that?
The question is not clear. Can you please repeat?
Okay, I'll come back. So the un-requisitioned surplus, which you mentioned, so this has been in talk in the sense that the government came out with the first regulation maybe couple of years back, and it never helped us. So what has changed in this particular quarter?
I got your point. See, earlier, as per the earlier systems and processes, the consent of beneficiary was required by a generator for offering that power on the exchange platform
Now, under the GNA and the new Indian Electricity Grid Code, the consent of beneficiary is not required. So a generating company, if the URS power is there, they can bid that power on the exchange platform without obtaining the consent of the beneficiary. So this is a significant change in the electricity grid code itself. Further to this, Government of India also has now issued a draft rule wherein they have said that the generating company must offer that power on the exchange platform, and if they fail to offer that power on the exchange, they fail to bid, submit sell bid of that quantum will not be counted towards their fixed cost recovery. I mean, maybe for, based on the ERC computation, which will impact the fixed cost recovery. So because Government of India wants that, the liquidity in the market should improve.
When do you-
These rules are going to be finalized maybe within this month. Already we have started seeing volumes from the generating companies, the URS power getting bigger than the exchange platform. It's self-evident, liquidity has improved because of that.
Understood, sir. Thank you, and all the best, sir. Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Guy Spier from Aquamarine Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you very much. Can you hear me?
Yes, I can hear you.
Thank you very much. I think the whole of India should be grateful for the extraordinary work the Indian Energy Exchange is doing in facilitating the provision of electricity to the whole of India, and I think you're an amazing team. I wanted to get your update on the comments procedure for the Central Electricity Regulatory Commission, where they are in their discussions with the Ministry of Power. If the Ministry of Power eventually takes a decision on market coupling, when they will—when your best estimate is of when they will take it. I would imagine that if they decide to go there, there's gonna have to be a lot of discussions on exactly how to implement it and what the market procedures will be, and even which contracts they might start working with first.
I can't imagine they would do it all at once. So I'd love to get your take on where that is, where your discussions are, and how you see it unfolding from here. Thank you.
Yeah. First of all, thank you very much for complimenting. And with regard to market coupling, let me first tell you the events which have happened. I think in the first week of June, there was a letter from Ministry of Power for implementing current market coupling to CRC. CRC issued their discussion paper in the month of August, and they invited suggestions on that, and almost about 127% submitted their suggestions, comments. And in that also what we find that more than 70% persons, they were not in favor of coupling. If you look at the... All these comments are hosted on the CRC website, you can have a look at yourself. All eminent persons of the sector, experts of the sector... they have opined that market coupling will not bring any value in the market.
The need of the hour is basically to improve more liquidity in the market. In the present arrangement, there are three exchanges. These three exchanges are competing with each other, so if you do the coupling, it will stifle the competition and innovation and still. Based on the comments received, I'm sure CERC, there are few comments where the alternate options were suggested. What we understand is that CERC is now also exploring, analyzing the alternate options given in some of the suggestions. Maybe at the appropriate time they will take a view on that, whether there is any merit in implementing Market Coupling or not. I will not be able to give you any timeframe when CERC will take a view on that.
After CERC takes a view on that, then also the process is quite long, because, they, they will come out with a draft. They will discussion paper again on the new concept and then take comments on that. They may come out with a draft regulations, finalization of the, the regulations, development of software and, laying down the settlement mechanism. I mean, doing the mock drill for that, so it's, it's a long-term process.
Yeah. Thank you so much. I would also, just to confirm, I would imagine that developing that new system, if it ever comes about, would be with the involvement of the existing market players to ensure that energy continues to be traded smoothly. So you would be closely involved in the development of that system?
Yes, yes. I mean, whatever is done by CERC, that is done in a transparent manner and with the involvement of all participants.
Yeah. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you for your great work. You're a great Indian institution, and, I'm proud to be associated with you, as you know. Thank you.
Thank you. Thank you. Thanks a lot.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Ankit Kanodia, from Smart Sync. Please go ahead.
Thank you for taking my question. My question is again related to Market Coupling, but just slightly on a different note. So, in our call, we have been very clear that if Market Coupling comes in, it would lead to depth of innovation in the market, right? In the exchange market. But we see some of our competitors celebrating Market Coupling. So can you throw some light as to how Market Coupling can be beneficial for one player and not beneficial for others?
So the point is, I will always tell the side of the story which suits me, and same thing is true for the other exchanges also. That is why there is a regulator. Regulator is independent body. They will take a view considering what is good for the sector, and that is why they issued the staff paper. In the staff paper, if you see, the suggestions received are not only from these three exchangers, the suggestions received are 124. There are other 124 participants who have made comments on that, and these include sector experts. You can say they are members of the CRC, ex-members of the CRC, ex-members, chairpersons of CRC, Central Electricity Authority, ex-members of the Appellate Tribunal, ex-secretaries of the Government of India.
I mean, ex-regulatory commission, state regulatory commission chairman, and maybe IIT, from IIT and IIMs and NGOs. So all those persons, you know, comments on that. Please have a look at those comments. You will yourself be convinced that Market Coupling probably will not add any value. But anyhow, we have to leave it to the regulator. They have to decide about it. It is their prerogative to decide what is to be done in the market. But I can only tell you that implementation of Market Coupling is a major change in the market design, so it must. I'm sure regulator will take a view considering all aspects, and then implementation of that also is a long-term process.
Got it. Thank you so much for that detail, Ankur. My second and last question would be related to the International Carbon Exchange, which we are planning. Can you give us some color as to where we are in that? And how do you see that shaping up in the next couple of years? Any qualitative and quantitative details you would like to throw up?
Yeah, in terms of carbon exchange, I think we are still working on that, because the transactions are basically mainly with the Indian sellers and international buyers. So these are going to be, I mean, dollar-rupee transactions, and it is difficult to facilitate these kind of a transactions on exchange platform. So we are now exploring the option with the GIFT City, to launch this exchange from the GIFT City so that we can do dollar-dollar transaction. And we had a couple of interactions with the GIFT City officials, and they are also very supportive of this. Let's see if it materializes in the next couple of months.
Okay. So maybe, in the FY 25, we can expect some transactions here?
Yeah.
A notable transaction.
We are desperately working on that, and we intend to launch that as soon as possible.
Thank you so much, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Abhiyankar from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
... so thank you. Thanks for the opportunity. So, in your initial remarks, you mentioned about the fungibility of REC. So can you please explain what exactly you mean by that?
Yeah. Earlier, in case of REC, the RP obligation was separate for the solar, separate for the wind, separate for the hydro. All those things were separately specified. And as a result of that, you know, some states, I mean, the inventory for the RE, inventory for solar was higher, wind was lower, so there were, there were problems in that. But now with the fungibility, after creating fungibility, all RECs are in one category, and there is a multiplier effect based on the technology. So now the obligation entities can buy that REC to meet the requirement. There is no. All their obligations are again combined together. So they can... I mean, that has basically increased liquidity in the sell side, and also made it simpler for the distribution companies to meet their obligation.
Understood. And, sir, would you be able to also mention what will be the industry-wide, like, the system-wide inventory level for RECs as of, say, on December?
Pardon?
The system-wide inventory level of RECs.
Yeah. Inventory is very, very high in the market now. It's almost about 2.5, more than 2.5 crores RECs are there in the market. See, now there is a mechanism that even distribution companies, if they have renewable power at their disposal, which is more than their RP obligation, they also can get RECs. So as a result of that, there are distribution companies like Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, they also have RECs, and then the generators, REC renewable generators. So the combined REC volume is quite significantly high.
Okay. Last question: What were the long-term volumes in Q3? Long duration time, basically.
Sorry. Long-term?
Yeah.
LDC volume. So in Q3, this volume is about 3 billion units. So nowadays, every month we are doing close to 1 billion unit trade in longer duration contract. So, total in nine months, we have done close to 7 billion units, which has picked up in the later months. And if I compare it with the last year, last year, total in complete year itself, we did about 2 billion units, so there is a massive increase in LDC volume.
Okay, sir. So, and should we expect that, in Q4, ahead of the summer season, this volume can really spike, because most of the, discounts would like to-
Um, yes.
Acquiring power for the next, for the summer season?
Yes. So there is a lot of interest now, and you rightly said.
Yeah.
Because for the summer season, there is a visibility that there is going to be deficit again. So many of these distribution companies, they want to come to the market at this point in time and lock their procurement for the coming months. So we are working towards achieving even better number in, better numbers in months to come.
Okay. Sure, sir. Thank you, and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Sumit Kishore from Axis Capital. Please go ahead.
Thank you. My question is in relation to the flurry of firm dispatchable RE tenders that we have been seeing over the past few months. Basically, as the electricity storage solutions evolve and this becomes more and more prominent, what implications does it have for the volumes that come to the short-term market, and particularly to the exchanges? And also, if you could combine this answer with the opportunity that you see with the RE capacity that would be set up for green hydrogen over the medium term, you know, again, what could be the quantum of associated generation that, if possible, could come to exchanges?
See, first of all, let me tell you the basic principle. Renewable energy generation capacities, there is a lot of variation in that. There's a lot of volatility in that, whereas demand is practically fixed. So a buyer will have to have, you know, other sources of power also to meet the demand. And it is seen that the countries where renewable generation capacity has increased, the exchange transactions have also increased, because exchange, on the exchange platform, you can do integration of different resources in a more efficient manner. So, and like for the storage capacities, the battery storage system or the home storage system, there the cost of generation is going to be higher, and exchange can provide that high price during the peak hours. So I am sure with higher renewable energy capacity and the storage systems, the exchange will be definitely a preferred option.
Even the Government of India is talking about the storage capacities under the Viability Gap Funding system, and there also, the mechanism being explored is that, the sale of power is at least on the exchange platform during the peak hours, so that the maximum realization of revenue can happen on that.
Sure. Basically, if you look at the period FY22 to FY24, I mean, the share of exchanges has not really increased in the total power consumption. It's gone from 7.4% to 7.1%. The overall short term market has also stagnated at around 13.6%-14%. In the next 4-5 years, based on how renewable penetration is going to increase, how do you see the share of short term market going up? What is going to drive that? And how is the share of exchanges within the mix going to increase? Maybe a 3-year time frame.
It is very difficult to say about what is going to happen in future, but I can tell you in the past, if you look at the last five years, our volumes have increased at a CAGR of, I think more than 16%-17%. And I'm sure with the high renewable, this number will be further better.
Sure. So you had mentioned that, you know, in European markets already you have renewable capacities which are, you know, coming to the market under the,
See, let me, let me tell you one thing. In case of the European markets, they have a market framework even at the retail level, so competitive framework at the retail level also. So I think, their model is, more competitive, and exchange transactions are more in those countries. So... But the trend is that with the high renewable, exchange transactions also improve. The share of exchanges increase significantly.
So are we seeing more renewable capacities being set up on a merchant basis now, in the next couple of years?
Not necessarily. Not necessary. We have seen states having high renewable at their disposal under the PPA.
Yeah.
They sell more power during high renewable generation capacity per year.
Yeah.
There are distribution company who buys that power.
Got it. Thank you.
What is required is, we need to have capacity addition in the sector.
Yes. So for time of the day, you know, requirement of using power, especially during evening peak hours, exchanges could prove a very important tool to manage that situation.
If you look at our Real-Time Market, the Real-Time Market volumes have increased to almost about 30 billion units now, and the share of Real-Time Market is increasing. It is mainly because of these things, that with the renewable capacity addition taking place, there are participants who are selling power in the external exchange platform whenever the renewable is high, and there are other participants who are in need of power, they buy it.
Okay. Thank you so much for answering my questions.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Sagar Vijaybhai Shah from Shah Company. Please go ahead.
Hello?
Yes, sir.
Yes.
Yeah. So, yes, sir. So thank you for the brief insights on the quarterly update on the results. So I was just going through the replies which the members have commented on the staff report which the CERC has asked for. So I was going through the IEX reply also. In that, you have... The company has mentioned that this may be unconstitutional as well, and this, because the objective of giving the license to IEX is also based on some sound principles, which, if the market coupling is happening, then it is violating, and it may be unconstitutional. So if you can just throw the light on that.
I think, our suggestions to CERC are very detailed, and they are self-explanatory. I will request you to kindly go through them, and you can, I'm sure, get more clarity from the suggestion, by reading the suggestion. I, I don't think those suggestions are, I think, in 30 pages, and I'll be able to detail them out in on this call.
Mm-hmm.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of B. Vijaykumar from Avendus Spark. Please go ahead.
Good evening, sir. This is B. Vijaykumar from Avendus Spark.
I'm not able to hear you.
Is it audible now?
Better.
Yes, sir. So my first question is on our GTAM and GDAM volumes. Like, can you elaborate the reason why it is on a declining trend this year compared to last year, the volumes from GDAM and GTAM?
Yeah, in the green market, see, we do not have significant merchant generation capacity in the green area. Mostly the green power sale was coming from distribution company, who have green power beyond the RP obligation, and more from the Karnataka. This year, the Karnataka demand has, there was a significant increase in the demand, almost about 30%, mainly because that, the rain shortfall was there in Karnataka during that time. The wind generation happens earlier, they were selling their power. This year, their own consumption was high, so the sale was less on the exchange platform because of that. Otherwise, as far as the demand is concerned, there is a huge demand for the green power, and the premium over the conventional power in the green market is also almost about INR 0.40-INR 0.50 per unit.
Second question is on the recent some developments on open access, where and on the revoking or refilling of any license requirement of transmission for renewable projects or any new projects to be set up by the developers. So how are all these things having a positive impact on our open access volumes, you think? Or will it have any positive impact in the future?
All these things are basically for development of the market and development of green energy in the country. So... and as I told you, anything which leads to capacity addition in the sector is going to be positive for the exchange also. So these things will be positive, but let's see about the implementation of this, because these things, these kind of things will take time for implementation and seeing the result of that. These are all futuristic issues.
Mm-hmm. Okay, got the, got the point. Thank you so much and all the best.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. The next question is from the line of Devesh Agarwal from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
Good evening, everyone, and thank you for the opportunity. My first question is on the long duration contract. So if you see one of the benefit of exchanges was lower prices compared to the bilateral market, and that has been driving the move from bilateral to exchanges. All your new contracts that you are seeing on the LDC, can you give us a comparison in terms of prices that we are seeing in the LDC market versus the bilateral market?
I can only tell you one thing, that the practice which distribution companies are adopting is they do a tender on the platform, and also for that they have some time available to give that consent. During that time, they run the auction on the exchange platform also, and, invariably, they find lower rate on the exchange, and they get into the contract on the exchange platform. So on case-to-case basis, it is very difficult to give you a comparison for each of them, because these are different vendors coming out at different prices, but definitely exchange prices are lower.
Any range, sir? Can we say that 10%-20% could be the difference or even that will be difficult to say?
10%-20% is a very, very large number what you are talking about. It is normally, you can say, about INR 0.20-0.25 per unit.
INR 0.20-INR 0.25 per unit?
Yeah.
Okay.
Maybe, which is about 3-4%. See-
Okay.
A generator is giving a competitive rate on the exchange platform because he is getting payment on daily basis. So his working capital requirement is less, and he is basically saving cost there in that. And then he is assured of payment. So that is why a generator is offering competitive price on the exchange platform.
All right. Great. And, sir, if we... You did mention about the incremental some, supplies coming from the imported fuel projects, but, if we just want to understand better over the next two quarters, when we will see the peak demand, what is your sense in terms of how much incremental supplies can come, from which segment, which can help us meet the demand and drive the exchange volumes based on your past experience?
See, number one, last year also, Government of India has given direction for the imported coal-based power plant to run. And, but, you know, last year, the coal prices were itself very, very high. The variable cost was something around, during this time of the year, March, April, I think it was about 8-9 INR per unit. But now the coal prices have come down, so variable cost is only about 4 INR-4.5 INR per unit. So I'm expecting the imported coal-based power plants to run at the full capacity, which is something about 10,000-12,000 megawatts. That capacity is going to be available. And another thing is the gas-based power plants. Gas rates also have come down. I was seeing today the West India market is about $9. It is expected to...
The futures of the LNG are being traded for the month of March at $7-$8. So if it comes down to $7, the variable cost with LNG will be only about six rupees. So today we have 25,000 MW of gas-based capacity. Out of that, almost about 12,000 MW is on bar, so that can start generating power. So this is lot of, lot of capacity, 12,000 MW of gas, 10,000 MW of imported coal, and also the new generation capacities are under commissioning, construction and commissioning. So we are expecting by March, even now, almost about another 4,000-5,000 MW capacity will get added. So taken together, this summer, things will be comfortable.
. Understood. And sir, on REC, we've been seeing that the prices have corrected significantly versus what they were earlier. Does this hold any risk to our exchange tariffs?
Yes. Exchange volumes have significantly increased in the month of December. I think, the third quarter, our volume was 65% with respect to last, third quarter of last year. 65-
No, no, sir. In terms of tariff, I'm asking. The tariff that we charge at INR 40 per certificate, given that the prices have come off significantly, is there any risk to that INR 40 or there's no risk to that INR 40?
Let me tell you one thing. We were charging the same tariff when the REC rate for the solar was 2,500 also. Okay? So the exchange fee is same. It is not price sensitive, because if it is price sensitive, then we will always like to have higher price, which is not in the interest of consumers. It is a fixed fee.
Right, sir. Perfect. Thank you so much.
Thank you.
Thank you very much. As there are no further questions, I will now like to hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Thank you, friends. I would like to thank each one of you for being part of today's call. Throughout this quarter, we've witnessed a number of efforts announced by the government and regulators aimed at establishing a favorable policy and regulatory climate to develop the energy sector. We remain committed to contributing to the development of a sustainable and efficient energy futures. Have a wonderful evening. Thank you very much.
On behalf of Axis Capital Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.