Ladies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Q3 FY23 earnings conference call of Power Mech Projects, hosted by Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. As a reminder, all participant lines will be in the listen-only mode, and there will be an opportunity for you to ask questions after the presentation concludes. Should you need assistance during the conference call, please signal an operator by pressing star, then zero on your touchtone phone. Please note that this conference is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Prasheel Gandhi from Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Thanks, Ramey, and good afternoon, everyone. Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities welcomes you all to 3Q FY 2023 earnings conference call from Power Mech Projects. On the onset of call, I would like to thank the management team for giving us the opportunity to hold the call. Today, from the management team, we have Mr. S. K. Ramaiah, Director, Business Development, and Mr. J. Satish, CFO. I would now like to hand over the call to management for opening remarks, post which we can take questions from the participants. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Yeah, yeah, thank you. Good afternoon, friends. This is Satish here, and I have with me Mr. S. K. Ramaiah, Director, Business Development. I welcome you all to the earnings call, quarter three and nine months, FY 2022 and 2023. The performance for quarter three and nine months for this financial year continued at our set targets for the entire year. The reported total income for quarter three is around INR 912 crore. Again, this is all-time high in terms of execution for Power Mech in its journey during quarter three of any financial year. The EBITDA is around INR 106 crore, and PAT is 51 crore. During quarter three of previous financial year, the reported total income was INR 650 crore, EBITDA was INR 72 crore, and PAT was INR 33 crore.
On a year-on-year basis, total income has shown a growth of almost 40%. With the growth of revenue, the growth in EBITDA is around 47%, and growth in PAT is almost 54%. The revenue mix for quarter three is as follows: erection business contributed almost INR 144 crore, civil business, including railway, water projects, is around INR 492 crore. Operation and maintenance, both domestic and international, put together is INR 260 crore. Electrical business, it's around INR 12 crore, and other income, close to INR 3 crore. During quarter three of last financial year, the same numbers were like, erection business contributed INR 127 crore, civil business around INR 268 crore, operation and maintenance, INR 226 crore, electrical business, INR 25 crore, and other income, it was around INR 4 crore.
During quarter three of FY 2023, domestic business has contributed almost like 89%, and the balance 9% has come from the international market. Similarly, power sector has contributed 58% and non-power sector, it's almost like 44%. That is the mix for FY quarter three FY 2023. We've seen growth across all the segment except the electrical business. In electrical business, the company is very much selective in its approach and not intending to expand its space in electrical business. Oil business has grown by almost 15%, and it has contributed 29% of the total revenue for this quarter. Similarly, the total reported income for nine months, FY 2023, stands at INR 2,435 crores. For nine months, the EBITDA is close to INR 281 crores, and PAT is INR 134 crores.
Whereas, during nine months of last financial year, the reported total income was INR 101,822 crores. EBITDA was INR 206 crores, PAT was INR 91 crores. On a year-on-year basis, for the nine months, we have seen a growth of almost 34% in revenue, and with the growth of revenue, the growth in EBITDA is almost 36%, and PAT has grown by almost 47%. The revenue mix for nine months is as follows: erection business contributed INR 458 crores, civil business, including railway and water projects, it's around INR 1,235 crores, operation and maintenance, INR 682 crores, electrical business, INR 52 crores, and other income, it's around INR 8 crores.
Whereas, during nine months of last financial year, erection business has contributed INR 370 crore, civil business, it's around INR 775 crore, operation and maintenance, INR 587 crore, electrical business, it was around INR 76 crore, and other income, it was around INR 15 crore. The mix between international and domestic. The domestic business has contributed 86% during nine months, FY 2023, and the rest has come from overseas business, it's around 14%. The mix between power and non-power business stands at 59% and 41% during nine months of this financial year. The company has always been conservative in its approach since its inception, and therefore, while building, while building its business plan, it takes all suitable steps to retain the plan under control.
In addition to the plan for sustained growth, the company, company's focus will also continue on cash flow and margin improvement. We are seeing the profile, margin profile improving gradually. Maybe by FY 2025, we're expecting to reach to our earlier reported margin profile and move thereafter with some gradual improvement. This is mainly on account of the initiatives, what we have taken since past few years. Moreover, we are very happy to see our execution cycle improving each quarter-on-quarter. The company has set strong base in terms of resources, equipment, strong manpower base, leadership skill, both at senior level and middle and junior level, engineering skills, etc, to execute projects in the range of INR 400 crore-INR 450 crore per month, which is encouraging.
If you see, like, a few years back, our execution range used to be around INR 400 crore-INR 450 crore plus in a quarter, but now the same level of execution is going to be done in a month. This was the transformation of the company, and it has been done for sustained growth. All the existing projects are on track and moving as per the schedule. The execution plan for the year and for the next financial year remains on track, and we do not see or anticipate any changes in our business plan. Similarly, seeing the present opportunity size, the order book target for the current and next financial year looks to be comfortable. Each month, the business development team review is done based upon changes to see that the overall target of the company is intact.
The company is also expecting good amount of order booking and execution cycle at international market. The team is strengthened even at international market. Especially, we are expecting good amount of book additions in the, in the operational maintenance service, Nigeria market. Moreover, the company has set a strong risk management policy and team to review each project progress and identify associated risks.
This is helping us to proactively mitigate at early stage for any associated risk, if any. The initiative which the company has taken few years back, is helping now for a sustained growth pickup vertically. Coming to the next line items. Depreciation as a percentage remained, as we have seen, even stated in the last call, that because of, controlled CapEx, this line item kept more or less, flat. Similarly, finance cost as an absolute number remained controlled.
There has been some increase in the non-fund utilization because of the order book increase and execution cycle improvement. Now, this as a percentage, we're expecting it to come down further. The overall working capital cycle seem improving for the period due to change in the customer as well as their business mix. The net current debt, excluding cash and cash equivalent, it's ranging in the range of 145-146 days during this period. And, as stated earlier, this is expected to improve further. As you all know, like, this used to be 153 days, March 31, 2022, and 205 days, March 31, 2021. So there has been significant improvement in the working capital cycle. Moreover, the operating cash flow we have seen is positive.
It's around INR 45 crore+ during the period. More importantly, we are seeing that, the average monthly collection improving each month, which used to be INR 250 crore-INR 300 crore , now it has gone almost like INR 300 crore-INR 350+ . We are expecting this to, this to go up again to four hundred to four hundred and fifty crores per month, with the growth of the business. Coming to the debt line item, the gross debt, it stands around INR 536 crores , and the net debt is, almost like INR 336 crores . Whereas in FY 2022, it was INR 526 crore-INR 527 crore , and the net debt was INR 320 crores .
So in spite of growth in business, execution cycle and all, this number we have kept flat, and this, we are working to bring it down, so this shows the improvement in the working capital and the cash flow. Coming to the order book, the backlog as of December 31st 2022, it stands around INR 24,200 crore. The plan we have set close to INR 10,000 crore for this year. We are trying to move towards that line item. We have done so far INR 8,500 crore. Apart from that, we have projects which are L1, close to INR 970 crore. So we are comfortable to reach to the closure number, the target what we have set for this year. Now, I request Mr. S. K. Ramaiah, to say a few more developments before we get into question and answer session. Thank you.
Yeah, Ramaiah here. Good afternoon to everybody. Thanks, Satish, for your update on the various numbers. I think we continue to be bullish on our approach in the new opportunities and the various development activities and marketing, from variety of customer base, and the investments which are taking place although in all the sectors of the economy. I then basically there is a substantial growth in the order backlog compared to March 2022, and INR 8,854 crore. Now it has reached almost INR 50,000 crore, as Satish has told. That is almost ninety-- more than 90% growth in order backlog, that has been propelled by substantial opportunities in FGD business, in various infrastructure projects, and then other few opportunities.
As a quarter under three, the total order booking has been INR 1,531 crore compared to INR 1,628 crore, compared to last quarter. Of course, in the second quarter, there was bulk orders on FGD, particularly. Our expectation is that in the balance we have now, INR 8,500 crore is there, nine and up to INR 10,000 crore should be a reasonable possibility at the end of the year. That should help us to build up a backlog of nearly INR 15,000 crore by end of the year, which stands as on today also near that figure. Now, the key segments, as already told you know, that mechanical, the backlog has gone up from INR 1,650 crore to INR 8,260 crore.
Civil, it was INR 5,842 crore to INR 5,663 crore. This is from March 2022 to as on December 2022. Then O&M, INR 1,240 crore to INR 850 crore, and electrical, INR 118 crore to INR 130 crore. And then the domestic, there is a substantial growth because of the more of the opportunities. And we are obviously, we are focusing on the domestic market because of all these, market available. And then, the power sector continues to give a fillip to the order backlog based on the FGD opportunities and a few of the other, installation opportunities coming up. That comes to INR 9,638 crore, versus non-core of, INR 5,268 crores . Apart from the MDO, this is a, this is a backlog.
Now, coming to the key orders bag, apart from what we have shared in the first two quarter fees, BMRCL Challaghatta-Bangalore workshop depot, around INR 427 crore, and then one wagon repair shop, Railways, INR 250 crore, and then other FGD jobs are there. The L1 status is there for INR 1,070 crore. Therefore, with these opportunities, obviously, what we are targeting for, nearly INR 9,000 crore up to INR 10,000 crore should be a possibility. Next, coming to the, after, coming to the com, next year, 2013, 2014, we are already mapping some of the opportunities.
As you have seen, the investment in the current budget of infrastructure and capital investment of INR 10 lakh crore, and the major investment is coming in the railways, over INR 2.4 crore, and then roads, INR 2.7 crore, and then in energy sector and other miscellaneous areas, other areas also. Therefore, we are in line with these opportunities brought up by the government investments, and then particularly in the drinking water schemes, then energy sector, oil and gas sector, mining and minerals, apart from the roads. Therefore, these opportunities will continue to be aggressively pursued by us. Our estimation is that we can target nearly, opportunity-wise, over INR 30,000 crore-INR 35,000 crore. International also, because of our domestic bullish market, we were not focusing much in the last one or two years.
Middle East, it will be opening up in the Middle East markets, plus 300 GW of opportunities. West Africa is there. Nigeria, we are already working there. We are also undertaking an O&M job for the Dangote job, which is just now completed, and then other countries in Western Africa. Domestic, obviously, there is going to be continued scope, potential for the FGD, about 80,000 MW . Some of the new plants are also expected to come in Neyveli Lignite Corporation in Odisha, about 2,400 MW. NTPC is planning to add additional capacity in Singrauli, Lara and other projects also.
Therefore, there is going to be some additional opportunities which is expected in the thermal sector also, and then infrastructure, particularly mining, minerals, and then coal mining, and then material handling. Railways. Railways is going to be a substantial opportunity. In fact, already we are doing about 6, 7 projects, and there are a lot of opportunities in maintenance shop, repair shops, and then these metro projects. Metro projects, they this one we have made in Bangalore for the Bellandur project. Similar projects we can take up for the new metro projects, because wherever metro projects are coming, there are maintenance shops are required, and that is a focus on the new opportunities.
Therefore, all these things combined together, it is not a challenge to target opportunities to INR 30,000 crore-INR 40,000 crore. And, with a hit rate of 20%-30%, 25%-30%, I think, our next year target is about INR 7,500 crore-INR 8,500 crore. That should be a reality. And, this growth story should be continued to be maintained in the coming 2-3 years, apart from the new opportunities to come up. And one more, I think, what I can say is that there is going to be huge investment which will come up in the private sector, particularly in the minerals and metals, steel, et cetera. The total investments, like ArcelorMittal, is going to make major expansion. Then, JSL is coming with expansion, JSW is coming with expansion.
Apart from that, minerals and coal mining, a lot of expansions are expected, and these opportunities will grow both for EPC jobs, then erection, testing, commissioning jobs, and many of the other civil works, et cetera. Of course, that also we have, if we factor it, you know, these opportunities will further go up. That is what I would like to say. And then, we can now wait for your questions. Thanks.
Thank you very much. We will now begin the question and answer session. Anyone who wishes to ask a question may press star and one on your touchtone telephone. If you wish to remove yourself from the question queue, you may press star and two. Participants are requested to use hands-free while asking a question. Ladies and gentlemen, we will wait for a moment while the question queue assembles. The first question is from the line of Mohit Kumar from DAM Capital. Please, go ahead.
Good afternoon, sir, and congratulations on a very good set of numbers. The first question is on the revenue guidance for FY 2023. I think we're given a guidance, INR 36 billion. Are you maintaining that number? And how do you see, you know, FY 2024 on this base?
Yeah. See, so FY 2023, it's, we are on track. Normally, like, if you take nine months, first half and second half, the second half, which is significantly high compared to first half, okay? The targets and execution cycle more or less on control. We are confident that number will continue. 2024, even like, we have kept, water will play a significant role, and of course, O&M will continue to be around INR 150 crore-INR 200 crore. Water business, because the order, the order backlog what we have taken is close to INR 2,800 crore-INR 3,000 crore. The calculation is per village, it's working around INR 1 crore.
Now, post detailed project report, DPR, okay, the value is going up almost like 20%-25%. Now, the order book, we have taken the original contract value. Once the, a few villages, it's been revised and almost like 20%-25% have to revise, okay? Maybe FY 2023, 31st, during quarter four, we revise the complete number. This will throw a huge backlog for us to when, in terms of execution. The water itself now on average, it's working almost like January, post to December, January, it's almost at INR 120 crore-INR 150 crore. This cycle is expected to improve to INR 150 crore-INR 160 crore. Maybe INR 1,400, 1,500 crore, 1,500 crore. Execution cycle between next year.
The thing is order backlog now, on average, 42%-43%, it's quite comfortable to take it next year.
So you're talking about number of INR 43 billion. Is that, is that number? Is the number talking-
No, conversion, it's a 40%+ , 42%+, 40%+, 42%+ conversion to the opening order book, okay? It's quite comfortable. On top of that, the temporary shutdowns and any new orders comes the next year, that will also add to the kitty. So if all goes well, the rate looks like FY 2024, we should cross almost like INR 5,500 crore+.
Understood. Sir, have you started executing Adani FGD project, and has it started contributing, or do you think it will take some time for it to take off?
I think we have had a thorough review on all these projects of Adani. Fifteen plots of 6,000, 8,000, 460 MW. Reasonably, the first is the ordering status is tracked. Around INR 1,100 crore have been ordered. Another INR 100 crore is expected by end of March. Next year, by second quarter end and maybe beginning of the third quarter, most of the orders will be completed, except for the last segment, electrical C&I. Of course, that should give a good track in terms of execution of this, because there are commitments of this one, and all these projects are committed projects... with the local regulator in place to sanction these, approve these projects for the CP and other things.
Therefore, we are on track on all these projects, as I said.
So lastly, sir, on the Talabira, Singrauli, Lara, what are the kind of opportunities we can cater to? And are you seeing the tenders from these, the companies for where we will be, you know, eligible?
Yeah. You mean to say for the power plants?
Yes.
Yeah. See, Talabira, that 3x 800 MW, NLC India has already invited bids. BHEL and L&T are there, and they are yet to take a decision. Maybe by end of this year, perhaps they will take a decision. That opportunity will be there. Of course, NTPC, I told you, you know, they are inviting bids for the Lara project also, 2 x 800 MW , then Singareni also. That is an additional opportunity. Therefore, next, all these projects will come up possibly for the next year in terms of the power sector business. I told you about the FGD business. FGD, substantially, what we are doing is that now, Udangudi, we have already provided an offer.
JSPL is coming with a FGD conversion for all their plants around Tamnar , and then in Orissa. That is in Chhattisgarh and Orissa. That should be a substantial opportunities in terms of, roughly around 4,000 MW. We have got a good relationship with the JSPL, Angul, Tamnar , and various other projects, higher. That should throw up opportunity at least, about, INR 2.5 billion crore-INR 3 billion crores. Apart from the other government tenders and utility tenders, which are expected to be completed.
Understood, sir. Understood. Thank you, understood. Thank you.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask any questions, please enter star and one. The next question is from the line of Dixit Doshi from White Stone Financial Advisors. Please go ahead.
Yeah, thanks for the opportunity. So my first question is on the status of, MDO project. So is it online? Is it on stream? Like earlier, you, you were guiding that by Q4 FY 2024, it should, you know, it should start, generating revenue.
Yeah, yes. Yes, I wish to update one good development. See, for starting this MDO project, the critical milestone is stage one forest clearance, and we have got it, sir. So it's in terms of approvals now in place. Next two months, the environmental clearance will follow, because stage one FC is important for environmental clearance. So by June, we'll start ground activity. So this project is completely under control and it is as per the plan. So we had planned close to INR 50 crore+ FY 2024, and that is in control, sir. It's possible.
Okay.
There may be price, price improvement because of the escalation. We have taken the price as we quoted. So probably, maybe second half or quarter three of next year, we'll, we'll give you the numbers, and we'll come up with the revised numbers, sir. So the number is going to INR 50 crores+.
Okay, thanks. Now, my second question is just to understand. So whenever we execute any particular work, after completion of the work at every month, we must be generating the invoice to the client. Let's say some clients don't pay, then till what level we work or we stop the work?
So normally, see, our being a cash contractor, it's all cash contracts. The payment cycle is normally 30-60 days, but as a practice, it's going almost 70, 75 days. So existing customers, wherever we understand, we go up to 60, 65, 70 days also. But, new customers, we don't work beyond 40, 45 days. So we see that, the payment is well protected. Otherwise, we, we'll end up incurring additional cost.
Okay.
Yeah.
So, in the past, have we done like, let's say some payment is not coming beyond 70 days also, we stop the work typically?
Sir, this case been in multiple instances. We have to build that pressure.
Okay.
Because, our like 50%, 55% in some of the projects, even 65%, is manpower, okay?
Mm-hmm.
So we have to build that trust that my payments are linked to our collection. So we have done it across, in multiple cases.
Okay. Okay, and my last question is on this Adani FGD order. So earlier, you had mentioned that, you know, we are going to receive the advance, and we will not require to deploy our own funds in this project. Is it still...?
Yeah, even today, the stance remains the same, sir. It's a complete—the plan is to have a cash neutral project. So we will not invest anything in terms of working capital, except the equipments of INR 25 crore-INR 30 crore, which we have already done that. So we have taken almost INR 100 crore of advances for this project. We have already availed it, and we're expecting the last two days, we got some amount, and maybe next one week, we'll be getting another INR 25 crore-INR 30 crore. So net this, we're drawing because interest-free. And our progress is again aligned to the receipts, so it's on track, sir. Yes, you are right, it is going to be a cash neutral project.
Okay. Okay, that's it from... And, just one last question: so, in terms of margins, across the segments, we, generally have a similar margins, or it varies, like erection, civil work, O&M?
The margin of oil changes, sir. Actually, O&M, that's where we command more, okay, that's, that's where we command more, and compared to domestic and international, international is slightly higher, okay? And, mechanically, it works around 11.5%-12.5%. Civil, it's working now 9%-10.5%. The reason being, we have spent in terms of royalty to build the credential list in four to five years now, and we are getting that fruit now. What will happen is, the projects which we have reported, paying the royalty now, that's getting over. Maybe next, a few quarters, we'll see that the margins of oil improving. We are targeting that FY 2025, at least we should reach to our normal, reported higher margins, which is to be 13%, +13%.
That's where we are working towards.
Okay. Okay, fine. That's it from my side.
Thank you. Participants, if you wish to ask any questions, please enter star and one. The next question is from the line of Pritesh Chheda from Lucky Investment Managers. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hello, sir. I joined the call a bit late. Maybe it could be a repetitive question, and I'm sorry for that. I just wanted to check what update did you give on the INR 6,000 crore of the order which has come from Adani Power on the engineering side, in terms of execution, in terms of the timeline? And will it, by any chance, change the initial expectation of revenue that we had for 2024 and 2025, which I think the last quarter we mentioned that we knew about INR 3,800 crore-INR 4,000 crore revenue this year and about INR 5,500 crore next year. So does it change anything? Does it change in terms of the order inflow, advances? If you could comment on that, sir. And I'm sorry if this question was answered earlier.
Yeah. As Satish has asked, I think, before recently, the advances are on track, INR 100 crore, and another INR 50 crore are also on the pipeline. And as far as the conversion is concerned, these projects are expected to be completed by 2025, all the projects. Therefore, the most important for all these projects execution is the ordering cycle. Now, ordering cycle will be completed in the next six to nine months. Therefore, the conversion should be on track. This year, this year, we may get about INR 50 crore-INR 100 crore of turnover. The coming year, about INR 1,500 crore, minimum, we are expecting it, and balance will be completed in the next 12-18 months.
Therefore, these projects are fully committed, and we are strictly following it up on all the aspects of that execution. Then major works will be on the civil, mechanical supplies, structural and equipment supplies. As I told you, INR 1,100 crore ordering has already been done, and the balance ordering will be completed by second-to-third quarter. That should clear the way for a timely, reasonable timely execution, barring the local issues, whatever is there, that is access availability, customer acceptance of certain things, all those things, normal project issues can be there. Otherwise, we are very confident on continue tracking this project in reasonable.
Yeah. And sir, this, INR 3,500 crore-INR 3,600 crore, it's more or less in control because quarter nine, nine months, so we have seen, the execution cycle improving, and it's going as per our plan. So this year, the guided, guided numbers, remains under control. And next year, even five thousand five hundred crores plus, okay, and any improvement, in the additions of next year, that may add up some more, but, we'll come with that numbers maybe first quarter of next year. As of now, the number what we have given, that remains the same.
So you have got INR 1,100 crore of order already issued, on that INR 6,000 crore of the order backlog that you have from Adani. That's what you have mentioned, right? It's INR 1,100 crore work order has been issued.
Yeah, yeah.
What is your revenue assumption from that order for next year, that is 2024, in your total INR 5,500 crore revenue that you are thinking?
Our assessment is that around INR 1,500 crore. It will range to-
Okay. Okay. And sir, you know, this being a more regulatory nature order, so it was a compulsion to put up these FGDs. Is there a timeline for its implementation by any regulatory authorities or anything?
I will tell you that. You see, the entire FGD retrofitting is guided by the CE, Central Pollution Control Board.
Mm-hmm, mm-hmm.
Between 24-26, that is the three, three categories of plants are there, Class A, Class B, and Class C. Most of these plants come under Class C, therefore 25 and 25. Therefore, there is a reasonable time available to implement this project to meet the regulatory deadlines fixed by the government. Accordingly, the ordering is being done, and that is how the EPC have also has been placed by Adani Power.
Okay, okay. So in any situation, can this be canceled or postponed or, or it is a compulsion to implement?
No, no. It is part of the national commitment. And second thing, all these FGD implementation, 169,000 MW, is the total plants identified out of something like 210,000 MW, 210,000 MW. This is part of the mandatory incorporation committed to the COP 2026, whatever was the-
Okay.
International commitments are there. It is very important for this country to meet the sulfur dioxide emission control, and there is no going back on this. In fact, order flow is expected. In fact, a lot of inquiries are coming. Already more than 55% ordering has been done. Another 40%-45% has to be done. Perhaps in the next one year, all these order moves should be completed.
Sir, what is the progress on the balance 80,000 MW of projects where the FGD order is yet to be placed, and you are hoping for some orders in there?
Yeah, yeah. We are targeting yearly around 7,000 MW-8,000 MW in that. I, I told you know, JSPL is there, Vedanta Group is there. They are our favorite customers. And then, private, public sector utilities also in Tammar , we are targeting. Already we have submitted the offer. And, other selected places, wherever we are there, we can do that. Our plan is to, at least, see the opportunities for about 7,000 MW-8,000 MW in this.
Okay, and my last question is, sir, our MDO order execution will start in 2025, right? That's how it is, or is it in FY 2024?
See, MDO, sir, just before your question, we had that update. So MDO, we have cracked the first milestone, which is important to start the project. That's the forest clearance stage one. Now, that stage one clearance comes, then stage two and environmental will follow in two months. So we have got that approval, sir. Now, the coal part is in control. So the execution ground will start June onwards. So the INR 40 crore-INR 50 crore, or maybe slightly, this number may go up because of the escalation. And what we have protected is as per the timeline, sir.
So the execution of some business will be there in 2025, right? 2024, sorry, 2024.
2024, we are expecting close to INR 50 crore and may slightly go up because of the escalation figure.
Oh, and last year?
Ramping up.
On the margin side, do we expect any expansion in margin next year?
Sir, there is a gradual improvement because the last four, five years, we are losing in terms of royalty, okay, in spite of, our core business doing good amount of-
Yes.
Execution margin. There is high probability that it will go up. But we are confident that now, because of all these new initiatives, 25, at least, we'll try to reach to a normal margin, that's, that's the plan.
This is that 2.5% of order that you have to pay for,
That's right.
Uh, yeah.
It's coming down, okay? Now, slowly, the margin profile is improving. So we are seeing that by 25, we should go back to our normal reported margins of 13% roughly.
Okay. Thank you very much, sir. Thank you.
The next question is from the line of Jensen from Jay Tours and Travels. Please go ahead.
Hello. Hello, good afternoon.
Yes, sir.
Sorry, this is a repeating question, I think. This is regarding the Adani order only. Because of the Adani, since order, I think our share got beating. Now, how, regarding the payment of Adani orders, order, this Adani order of INR 6,000 crore, how safe in place we are regarding the payment and the executions?
Sir, as we said, even we had the similar questions. As we said, see, this is a cash neutral project. We have mulled it at once. We will draw and utilize need-based. We have drawn INR 100 crore+ . We'll be drawing some more amount, and almost INR 1,100 crore-INR 1,200 crore order being done. Now, it's a global mandate, and for them also, there's a time pressure. In terms of execution, it's on track. We are planning maybe INR 50 crore-INR 100 crore of turnover this year. Maybe next year, we have planned INR 200 core-INR 1,500 crore, and this number may further go up because of time pressure, but that will come in maybe quarter one or quarter two of next year. That's definitely okay. It's more or less absolute and controlled, sir.
There is no slowdown.
To add to what Satish said, whatever projects we are doing with Adani so far, we have a reality check on the road project, and then the two infra projects, even mining projects, what we are doing in Odisha and the wind energy jobs are also. Nowhere, our bills are pending for more than a month, sir. 30-40 days.
Sir, 16 years our journey, sir, we understand the customer. So my maximum payment cycle is 30 days, okay? So now, if you see today, as of today, no dues actually pending. And this being a large contract, the risk mitigation, we have, we've ensured that it has to be cash neutral project, except for CapEx of equipment of INR 25 crore-INR 30 crore. Of course, those are in-house equipments.
Mm-hmm.
Apart from that, there will not be any working capital investment from our side, from our side.
In fact, we had a review with the Adani teams-
Yes.
And we are getting confidence about as far as these investments are concerned, because they are very specific for meeting the regulatory requirements, and they are already committed on these projects.
Thank you.
There are PPAs also in place. I, I, the 6, 1, 6, 600, 6,000, 4 orders, all the PPAs are in place. Also, yeah.
According to my understanding, this after completion of this project, maximum payment cycle will be 30-45 days.
No, this project, yes, sir. These all are 30-45 days, sir. Maximum beyond that, we cannot afford to wait.
In the case of Adani FGD job, our commitment for investment is working capital is only based on what we receive from them.
That is how we have structured.
So we have structured the entire contract. Even our vendors will pay only once you get from them. Yeah.
Oh, okay. So once they pay you the advance, then only you will execute the order?
Sir, today is surplus, sir. We can almost like more than INR 100 crore plus, okay? What I have released is 30, 60, 65 crores are surplus cash.
Oh, okay. Okay.
Yeah, yeah. Can we go to next question, sir?
Yes. Thank you, thank you very much.
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please enter star and one. The next question is from the line of Anupam Gupta from IIFL Securities. Please go ahead.
So just one question, the mining MDO revenue for FY 2024, you said INR 50 crore or INR 250 crore?
50, sir. 50. 5, 0.
50. Okay, and in FY 2025, this number should ramp up to what level?
MDO, it is 25, let's take this base number, sir, without escalation, it will be in the range of 155-175.
Okay, and escalation is approximately 40%?
Sorry, can you repeat again?
Escalation versus base prices is approximately 40% on current cost.
Yes. Today, see, the quoted price is INR 886. As per today's escalation, it's working almost like INR 450. Yes, as you rightly pointed, it's, it is slightly higher side, because, diesel being given in the, price escalation index, higher, more weightage. Because of that, this price has significantly gone up. So the cost is not proportionate, so the margin profile should also improve.
Okay. In terms of when you consolidate it in your balance sheet, what sort of CapEx should we build in for FY 2023 and 2024?
FY 2023, sir, maybe max of INR 15 crore, because, not much, investment will happen. FY 2024, see, we have planned, like, equity infusion of close to INR 100 crore+ . So 75% will come from our board. So maybe INR 150 crore, INR 160 crore, both the equipment put together, equity and plus the term loan and all. So it may range INR 150 crore-INR 180 crore, sir. And the rest, FY 2025, 2023.
INR 150 crore basically includes INR 175 crore of equity and balance of CapEx?
Yeah, the INR 75 crore will include INR 24 crore, maybe INR 30 crore-INR 40 crores, and INR 25 crore, the rest.
Okay. Understood. That's all from my end. Thank you.
Yeah, thank you, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nikhil Abhinand from DAM Capital. Please go ahead.
Sir, I just have a bookkeeping question, so can you just send-
We've lost the connection for Nikhil. We'll move to the next question from the line of Riken Gopani from Capri Global. Please go ahead.
Hi, sir. Am I audible?
Yeah, yeah. Please, sir.
Yeah, thank you for your opinion. Sir, I have three questions. So first one, on the order book. So you've mentioned for next year, yeah, that you might bid for about INR 30,000 crore-INR 35,000 crore of orders in the domestic market, and at the 30%, that could give you about INR 8,000 crore-INR 9,000 crore of orders here. But you're also saying that you would, you know, increase the focus on the international markets next year as well. So overall, what kind of order inflow do you expect in international and in aggregate, what kind of accretion do you see to the order book, for next year?
Sir, the plan what we have kept, INR 7,500 crore-INR 8,500 crore.
Okay.
That includes close to INR 700 crore of international order book. That is the target.
Okay.
So that will be a combination of maybe 50% O&M and 50% will be the mechanical space.
Actually, our opportunity in domestic is substantial.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
Now, whatever we get better opportunities there, there we'll target in international, because India, there's a lot of domestic opportunities are available. If you have seen last year also, the same thing.
Got it. So INR 7,500 crore is roughly what you're expecting as a domestic inflow. And in that, are you bidding in any FGD orders as well, or, this is outside of that?
FGD total opportunities, we are, maybe bidding for about INR 5,000 crore. Maybe we'll expect about 30% in that.
Got it. Okay. Got it. Got it. The next question is with regards to the cash flow, or, you know, that you've been able to improve the overall working capital cycle, as you mentioned, compared to last year as well. So what is driving this improvement? And in terms of next year, what's the direction that you would want to guide?
Sir, it's, it's very, very simple. Like, if you see, we have been working for 20 years with BHEL, okay. The experience with BHEL used to be slightly different five years back. But now, since five years, we are seeing, the receivable cycle going up to 80-95 days. Okay. And, so that was one of the reason. And some of the projects BHEL, when the project is about to complete, the final bill certification, they're taking slightly longer time. Now, since four, five years, we have been working in various directions, various initiatives like, railway, water, international and all.
So now we are selecting projects where we see that, the project is, well-funded and, the working capital cycle is good, and our comfort in terms of the execution. So that is helping us to handle, bringing down the BHEL file. If we go back 10 years back, the BHEL file used to be almost like 60%-70%. And if we go back to 2 years back, the BHEL file used to be almost 30%-40%, but now it has come down to 14%-15%.
So that is helping us to- is helping us in a lot to, to rotate the working capital and the retention money, which we had 250-280+ , okay. Now, in spite of growth, we are keeping it constant. The reason being, like some of the projects we are negotiating, especially the private customers, that, the retention money comes in support of the BG.
That will help, further help us to support in terms of the working capital.
Got it. So you're expecting this 138 days to also further come down in the next year?
Sir, the idea is to bring it down to at least 135 days, so first, at least next 12 months, okay? That's the plan.
With the new initiatives and all the new projects, there's a high probability that that should further come down. We are seeing that gradual improvement, sir.
Got it. Got it. And just in terms of one clarity on the FGD bit, you mentioned that there is a regulatory timeline that needs to be followed. But just to understand this better, are there any, you know, requests that can be taken to postpone this, or under no circumstance can there be any postponement to the timelines that are being currently outlined for FGD?
Yeah, I think, these deadlines are continuously monitored by the central government and the authority also. Earlier, they had fixed 24, and now they have made it 26. And looking at the... Because it's not only the main ordering is important, but the way it is implemented with the availability of the plant also for the upper schedule and then availability of some of the access there, because they're all retro- to be retrofitted. Those factors will be taken, and the availability of the equipment also, from the where they resource, how it is sourced and all. For all these aspects, and then of course, in all the all these FGD regulation is part of the tariff pass-through.
And all these things also have to be, like, confirmed with the tariff commitments from the DISCOMs and the [SEB boards. Therefore, it is a combination of all these factors, but the commitment to implement FGD is very clear, and that is what is seen in the ordering also. A lot of ordering is continuously happening on that.
It's at least fair to assume that the projects which you have on hand currently, there may be reasonable visibility that they are not being pushed any further, and it will be, you know, done by FY 25.
Yeah, that is our optimism. We are focused on the grounds.
Mm-hmm. Mm-hmm.
We are also watching the way the ordering is being done, because ordering is the most important thing for all these projects.
Apart from that, we are executing two other projects for BHEL also. That is on the civil side. They are also on track. Therefore, we don't anticipate huge delays or any delays on this, because government itself is pushing for this completion, and there is a commitment from the the developers also.
Got it. Got it. That is very helpful. Thank you so much, sir, and all the best for the future. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sheen George from Geojit Financial Services. Please go ahead.
Hello? Hello.
Yes, sir.
Hello?
Yeah, yeah, you're audible.
Yeah, you're okay.
Good evening, sir. Sir, can you give the revenue forecast for, like, what is the estimate for '24 and '25, FY 2024 and FY 2025?
Yeah. Yeah. See, 24, sir, like, as we discussed, okay, as we also stated, like, see the conversion, 40% to, 40% to 42% is very much likely.
So INR 5,500 crore plus any upside on the FGD, that will help us, okay? That is the plan. For 2025, because the MDA is going to start and we are about to even close the water projects and all, okay? So there could be even some upside in FY 2025 also, okay? So that should range maybe in the range of around taking MBO together, it should range close to INR 6,000 crores+, sir, because we have to complete the water projects also.
Fine. Understood.
Yeah.
And, can you give,
INR 7,000 crore-INR 7,500 crore, okay? And 2025, we have kept the order book target of INR 8,000 crore, okay? So for FY 25 order book, we are not taking any conversion percentage. I'm just taking the backlog.
Sir, can you come back again on the order book? Your voice was very feeble.
No, no. See, what I'm trying to say, sir, FY 2024, we have kept a target of INR 7,500 crore+ of order booking, and FY 2025, we have kept a target of INR 8,000 crore+ order booking. So taking 40% conversion to the opening order book, I'm not taking the addition for that year.
Mm-hmm.
So we should be able to, we should be able to cross INR 6,000 crore+ at 2025.
Okay. And, what about the order intake estimates as well?
Intake for this year, we kept INR 10,000 crore, so we'll be close to that number. FY 2024, INR 7,500 crore+, and FY 2025, INR 8,000 crore+.
Fine. Fine. Thank you, sir.
Yes, sir.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Anish Jobalia from Girik Capital. Please go ahead.
Yeah. Hi, sir, good evening. Sir, you actually gave some number around the cash flow from operations in your initial comments. So if you could just, you know, I lost your voice during that time. But if you can give your the number for the nine months, and you know, what are your targets for the full year, as well as for the next year? I mean, given the scenario of the improvement in the, you know, the growth in the revenues and margins and also working capital that we are expecting. So if you can share some numbers, that would be great, sir.
Yeah. See, sir, for nine months, it's close to INR 48 crore-INR 50 crores+ , sir, because... There is a number, and this number is expected to go up, because whatever is required to mobilize the projects, we have spent the money for all the new orders, including the recent Kacheguda and the Bangalore Metro. So the whatever mobilization is required, initial mobilization, we have done that. So FY 2024 year-end, it may be in the range of maybe close to 100 crores. That is what our expectation. And 2024, 2025-- 2024, the number should go up, maybe close to INR 180 crore-INR 190 crores.
Okay, so, I mean, like, if I see the half year, so, in the half year, I think, like, we were, we did already, like, INR 62 crores. So if you have done, like, INR 45 crores, it means, like, there was a negative cash flow from operations in this quarter. Is that correct? And,
It's maybe INR 10 crore-INR 15 crore with the difference. Yes, you are right.
Okay. So but then we are still expecting to achieve the INR 100 crore, CFO, for FY 2023. That's the target. Is that correct, sir?
That's the target. So the reason being, like, the new projects, like Kacheguda and Bangalore Metro, whatever mobilization is required, okay, we have done internally. So the building starts, so maybe 30 or 45 thereafter. Normally, it takes 30 to 60 days.
Mm.
So what are the projects we have on hand? It's all been spent now. Quarter four normally is a good quarter for collections, and in terms of execution, there's pressure from... There always used to be pressure from the customer during quarter four.
Mm-hmm.
If you see in terms of quantum also, quarter four will be almost the high comparatively quarter one, quarter two, and quarter three.
Mm.
We are expecting good amount of collection.
Okay. Got it, sir. So all the very best for the next quarter and the coming year. Thank you.
Yeah, yeah. Thank you.
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Riken Gopani from Capri Global. Please go ahead.
Just one follow-up question with regards to FGD. The current order win that we have, that is for about 6,000 MW. The total order book reflects about INR 6,000 crore. Is it about a crore or so per megawatt that it works out to? Is that how it works? In that context, when you said that you are targeting to make about 8,000 MW of additional orderings here, just help me understand why you're building in INR 1,500 crore in new order win expectations for next year.
No, what is the... There are two types of packaging is there. One is, say, if you say, complete EPC package is there, what we got from Adani is around INR 73 lakh per megawatt.
Mm.
And there are contracts which are awarded on a package basis, like civil, mechanical, supply, and then service and job. That can vary between INR 20 crore-INR 30 lakhs per megawatt. It is a customer choice. Therefore, and then the orders which are in the pipeline from the CESC, Rungta Group, is based on that type of philosophy only, not on EPC.
Mm.
Therefore, it is a combination of EPC, then packaging-wise and all. But what I said, on a ballpark basis, if I take the 78,000 MW, the opportunity, what we are going to target is around INR 5,000 crore-INR 6,000 crore. And then, based on our past experience and the competitiveness in the market, that is what the figure I told about INR 1,500 crore.
Okay. But the total remainder of the power capacity, which needs to get the FGD retrofitting done, that is about 80,000 MW. Is that correct?
Yeah, it is around 80,000 MW. Now, the rest of the private players, like, you know, Adani, they have taken advance action. Now, JSP is there, JSW is there, Vedanta Group is there, and then, various other private developers also have to do it. And apart from that, the state utility is also there. For exa mple, Tamnar is coming with, a lot of inquiries, and then Maharashtra, then Gujarat State, then, you know, the other, most of the states, you know, they will have some residual orders or some bulk of the order gets put in. Only NTPC has the bulk of the ordering-
Mm.
and then, some of the private players. Therefore, all these things they have to complete in the next one year, because the deadline is 2026.
Mm.
On that basis, you know, these figures will be worked out.
Okay. So you'll still be participating in that INR 80,000 crore as well. This is just based on what you have current visibility of?
Yeah.
So-
What I would like to say is, these are all individual packages, individual parts are there. Therefore, about 10% of the available opportunity we'll participate. That is on a rough conservative basis. Maybe we will exceed that also. But we are taking based on our present, this one, we can do that much easily.
Understood, sir. Understood. That, that is very helpful, and thank you so much for the answer.
Yeah. Thank you, sir.
Thank you. As there are no further questions, I would now like to hand the conference over to management for closing comments.
Yeah, Ramey, I hear again. Thanks a lot for your presence and all. I think Satish has given the numbers and the marketing and the opportunities available in the project, budget, and budget of INR 1,000,000 crore of investment. There is a 30% increase in the capital investment as a whole by the government. Now private capital will come in a big way in infrastructure, then capital equipment, steel plants, infrastructure, mining, minerals, et cetera. I think the opportunities of INR 30,000 crore-INR 40,000 crore is not a challenge. Therefore, the targets what has been fixed for INR 10,500 crore next year, and then continue to be maintained, you know, is reasonably and possible.
Our ordering and the execution cycle also is improving it. The better understanding of the business in various projects, what we have done, wherever we entered new business, also non-power, the execution cycles are improving it, and the projects are getting controlled, and with better execution and also cash collection. Therefore, we remain to be optimistic, and the numbers have seen that in terms of the ordering, execution, and then other, other back and EBITDA margins. That is what I would like to say.
Thank you all. Thank you very much.
Thank you very much. On behalf of Nirmal Bang Institutional Equities, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.